Chapter 4: The Balance of Payments Power Points created by: Joseph F. Greco Ph. D. California State University, Fullerton Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 1 Chapter 4: The Balance of Payments 4.1 The Balance of Payments: Concepts and Terminology 4.2 Surpluses and Deficits in the Balance of Payment Accounts 4.3 The Dynamics of the BOP 4.4 Savings, Investment, Income, and the BOP Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 2 4.1 The Balance of Payments: Concepts and Terminology The Balance of Payments : Overview • Introduction • Major Accounts of the Balance of Payments • Double-Entry Accounting System • Current Account Transactions • Capital Account Transactions • Official Reserves Account Transactions Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3 4.1 The Balance of Payments: Concepts and Terminology • Introduction • Balance of payments (BOP) • Accounting statement that summarizes all the economic transactions between residents of the home country and residents of all other countries Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4 4.1 The Balance of Payments: Concepts and Terminology • Major Accounts of the Balance of Payments • Current account • Imports, exports, transfers • Capital account • Official settlements/reserves account Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 5 4.1 The Balance of Payments: Concepts and Terminology • Double-Entry Accounting System • Credit/debit transactions Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 6 4.1 The Balance of Payments: Concepts and Terminology • Current Account Transactions • Interest and dividend receipts and payments • Transfer payments between countries Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 7 4.1 The Balance of Payments: Concepts and Terminology • Capital Account Transactions • Capital outflow • Capital flight • Capital inflow Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 8 4.1 The Balance of Payments: Concepts and Terminology • Official Reserves Account Transactions • Official international reserves • Implications for fixed exchange rates Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 9 Exhibit 4.1 Summary of the Accounts of the Balance of Payments Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 10 4.2 Surpluses and Deficits in the Balance of Payment Accounts Surpluses and Deficits: Overview • Introduction • An Important Balance of Payments Identity • The U.S. Current Account • The U.S. Capital and Financial Accounts • BOP Deficits and Surpluses and the Official Settlements Account Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 11 4.2 Surpluses and Deficits in the Balance of Payment Accounts • Introduction • Surplus/deficit • Surplus results when the credit exceed the debit transactions • Deficit results when the debits exceed the credit transactions Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 12 4.2 Surpluses and Deficits in the Balance of Payment Accounts • An Important Balance of Payments Identity: current account + capital account = 0 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 13 4.2 Surpluses and Deficits in the Balance of Payment Accounts • The U.S. Current Account • Goods • Services • Balance on good and services • Investment income • Unilateral current transfers, Net • Balance on current account Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 14 Exhibit 4.2 The U.S. Current Account, 1970-2005 (Millions of Dollars; Credits, +; Debits, -) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 15 4.2 Surpluses and Deficits in the Balance of Payment Accounts • The U.S. Capital and Financial Accounts • U.S.-Owned assets abroad, net • Foreign assets in the U.S., net • Capital account transfers • Balance on the capital account • The statistical discrepancy • The official settlements, or reserves, account Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 16 Exhibit 4.3 The U.S. Capital and Financial Account, 1970-2005 (Millions of Dollars; Credits, +; Debits, -) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 17 Exhibit 4.4 U.S. Balance of Payments Accounts for 2005 (Billions of Dollars) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 18 Exhibit 4.5 World Current Account Balance (Billions of U.S. Dollars) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 19 4.2 Surpluses and Deficits in the Balance of Payment Accounts • BOP Deficits and Surpluses and the Official Settlements Account • The central bank gains or loses international reserves Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 20 Exhibit 4.6 Current Account Balances for the G7 Countries as a Percentage of GDP Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 21 Exhibit 4.6 Current Account Balances for the G7 Countries as a Percentage of GDP (continued) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 22 Exhibit 4.7 Current Account Balances for Developing Asian Economies as a Percentage of GDP Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 23 4.3 The Dynamics of the BOP • The Trade Account and the Investment Income Account • Countries as Net Creditors or Net Debtors • Net foreign assets • Data on International Investment Positions Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 24 Exhibit 4.8 International Investment Positions Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 25 4.4 Savings, Investment, Income, and the BOP Savings, Investment, Income and the BOP: Overview • Introduction • Linking the Current Account to National Income • National Savings, Investment, and the Current Account • Current Accounts and Government Deficits • What Causes Current Account Deficits and Surpluses? • Ricardian Equivalence • Individuals’ Intertemporal Budget Constraints • Investment Spending Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 26 4.4 Savings, Investment, Income, and the BOP • Introduction • National income and product accounts (NIPA) • The current account surpluses and deficits are linked to the saving and spending patterns of a country Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 27 4.4 Savings, Investment, Income, and the BOP Linking the Current Account to National Income: GNI = GSP + NFI GNI – (C+ I + G) = GDP + NFI – (C + I +G)= NX + NFI Important National Income Accounting Identity: GNI – ( C + I +G) = CA Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 28 4.4 Savings, Investment, Income, and the BOP • National Savings, Investment, and the Current Account • National Savings = GNI – Consumption of public and private sectors Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 29 4.4 Savings, Investment, Income, and the BOP • Current Accounts and Government Deficits • Net private saving • National government saving • Surplus on the government budget Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 30 4.4 Savings, Investment, Income, and the BOP • What Causes Current Account Deficits and Surpluses? • Ricardian Equivalence • Individuals’ Intertemporal Budget Constraints • Investment Spending Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 31 4.4 Savings, Investment, Income, and the BOP • Ricardian Equivalence • The idea that the timing of taxes is irrelevant • Individuals will increase saving in response to a reduction in current taxation • They know they will be taxed more in the future to pay the interest and principal on the government’s debt Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 32 4.4 Savings, Investment, Income, and the BOP Individuals’ Intertemporal Budget Constraints • decisions to work, how much to consume and how to invest any accumulated wealth depend on • The prices and opportunities likely in the future Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 33 4.4 Savings, Investment, Income, and the BOP Investment Spending • Business continually evaluate investment projects subject to intertemporal budget constraint Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 34
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