The importance of long-term climate prediction for Sub-Saharan Africa

The Sahel
All of the poverty trap risk factors: food insecurity, climate shocks, pests,
Infectious disease, water, power, isolation
Figure 1: Estimated poverty rates across Northern Sudan; Source: Kozel and Mullen, ‘Indicators for
the Millennium Development Goals in Sudan: Levels, Trends, and Patterns’, 2003, World Bank
Deprivation during Colonial Era: Absence of Educational Facilities in Darfur
From Darfur 2005: Livelihoods Under Siege
El-Fasher Weather Station
Population (in millions)
Population of Darfur 1911-2004
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1911 1938 1950 1961 1973 1983 2004
Year
Sudan's Population: Past and Projected
60
40
Population (millions)
20
Year
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
0
1950
Millions
80
From the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA)
From the Darfur Peace Agreement, DPA
Development strategies include
Livelihoods
Water
Risk mitigation (irrigation, financial, diversification)
Social services
Infrastructure