/LYHDQG/HW'LH
'LGDQ([WUDWHUUHVWULDO,PSDFWDWWKH7ULDVVLF-XUDVVLF%RXQGDU\.LFNVWDUWWKH
(YROXWLRQRI/DUJH'LQRVDXUV"
7KH&DWDVWURSKLF
2YHUWXUH
E\6DPLU3DWHO
,OOXVWUDWLRQE\-RQ/RPEHUJZZZMRQORPEHUJFRP
6
L[W\ÀYH PLOOLRQ \HDUV DJR ZH ZHUH
IUHHGE\DURFNIURPVSDFH7KDWLVWR
VD\WKHFRPPRQDQFHVWRUWKDWZHVKDUH
ZLWKDOOPDPPDOVZDVIUHHGIURPWKHPLOOLRQ\HDU
UHLJQRI GLQRVDXUVE\WKHLPSDFWRI DQDVWHURLGNP
DFURVV WUDYHOLQJ NPV 7KH FHOHEUDWHG FDWDFO\VP
EHWZHHQWKH&UHWDFHRXVDQG7HUWLDU\3HULRGV³NQRZQ
LQ WKH URFN UHFRUG DV WKH .7 ERXQGDU\³ZDV WKH
HQG RI RQH UHJLPH DQG WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI DQRWKHU
7KH VXUYLYRUV RI WKH PDVV H[WLQFWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ
VPDOO PDPPDOV VFXUU\LQJ WKURXJK WKH XQGHUEUXVK
H[SHULHQFHG ´HFRORJLFDO UHOHDVHµ DQ RSHQLQJ RI QLFKH VSDFH WKDW SUREDEO\ DOORZHG WKH HYROXWLRQ RI WKH WUHPHQGRXV GLYHUVLW\ RI PDPPDOLDQ IRUPV WKDW
LQKDELWWKHZRUOGWRGD\1RZWKHUHLVHYLGHQFHWKDW
WKH GLQRVDXUV PD\ DFWXDOO\ KDYH EHHQ YLFWLPV RI D
NDUPLFERRPHUDQJ³WKH\PD\KDYHEHHQOLEHUDWHGLQ
DVLPLODUZD\PLOOLRQ\HDUVSULRU
3DXO 2OVHQ RI &ROXPELD·V /DPRQW 'RKHUW\
(DUWK 2EVHUYDWRU\ WKHRUL]HV WKDW DQ H[WUDWHUUHVWULDO
LPSDFW RFFXUUHG PLOOLRQ \HDUV DJR EHWZHHQ WKH
7ULDVVLF DQG -XUDVVLF 3HULRGV WKH 7U- ERXQGDU\
IUHHLQJ VPDOO FDUQLYRURXV GLQRVDXUV IURP ODUJH
UHSWLOLDQ FRPSHWLWRUV DQG DOORZLQJ WKHP WR HYROYH
WKHPDVVLYHVL]HWKDWKDVLQVSLUHG+ROO\ZRRGVSHFLDO
HIIHFWVWHFKQLFLDQVIRUGHFDGHV,WPDNHVIRUDJUDQG
WDOHWKHULVHDQGIDOORI DG\QDVW\7KHWKHRU\FRXOG
JLYH VWUXFWXUH D QDUUDWLYH DUF WR RQH FKDSWHU LQ WKH
ORQJDQGFRPSOLFDWHGVWRU\RI HYROXWLRQ7KLVIUDPLQJ
GHYLFHFHUWDLQO\LVWDQWDOL]LQJEXWIRUQRZLWUHVLGHVLQ
WKHUHDOPRI WKHRU\7KHSDWWHUQVDUHWKHUHEXWPDQ\
PRUHGDWDZLOOEHQHHGHGEHIRUHWKHWKHRU\FDQUHDFK
WKHOHYHORI DFFHSWDQFHHQMR\HGE\LWV.7FRXVLQ
´:KHQ \RX ORRN DW VSHFLÀF VHFWLRQV DW WKH
7ULDVVLF-XUDVVLF ERXQGDU\µ 2OVHQ VD\V ´ZKHUH WKH
IRVVLO UHFRUG LV JRRG >LW@ VKRZV IRU WKH IRVVLOV WKDW
DUH SUHVHQW DQ DEUXSW WUDQVLWLRQµ %XW HYHQ WKDW
VHHPLQJO\ VLPSOH VWDWHPHQW OLNH DOPRVW HYHU\ RWKHU
SDUWRI 2OVHQ·VWKHRU\KDVLWVFULWLFV´7ZRKXQGUHG
\HDUV RI IRVVLO FROOHFWLQJ DFURVV WKH 7U- ERXQGDU\
GRQRWGRFXPHQWDPDVVH[WLQFWLRQ7KDW·VDOOWKHUH
LV WR LWµ VD\V 6SHQFHU /XFDV RI WKH 1HZ 0H[LFR
0XVHXPRI 1DWXUDO+LVWRU\6FLHQFH2OVHQZKRVH
HDV\JRLQJ HQWKXVLDVP VRPHWLPHV EHWUD\V IUXVWUDWLRQ
ZLWKVXFKFULWLFLVPEDVHVKLVLPSDFWWKHRU\RQDVXLWH
RI REVHUYDWLRQV WKDW HFKR WKH .7 ERXQGDU\ 7KH
HYLGHQFHLVFRPSHOOLQJEXWSLHFLQJWRJHWKHUHYHQWV³
HYHQJOREDOFDWDVWURSKHV³WKDWWRRNSODFHPLOOLRQ
\HDUVDJRLVWULFN\EXVLQHVV
2OVHQGRHVPXFKRI KLVZRUNRQWKHERXQGDU\
LQ WKH 1HZDUN 6XSHUJURXS WKLFN VXFFHVVLRQV RI VHGLPHQWDU\URFNLQ(DVWHUQ1RUWK$PHULFDWKDWZHUH
THECOLUMBIASCIENCEREVIEW
SPRING
/LYHDQG/HW'LH
RQFH ULIW ODNHV PXFK OLNH WKRVH LQ (DVW $IULFD WRGD\
7KHVHURFNVHFWLRQVUHFRUGFKDQJHVLQJOREDOFOLPDWH
FRQWDLQDQFLHQWPXGÁDWVWKDWSUHVHUYHGWKHIRRWSULQWV
RI WKHORFDOVDQGSURYLGHVHYHUDOLQWULJXLQJSLHFHVRI HYLGHQFH IRU DQ LPSDFW DW WKH 7U- ERXQGDU\ 0RVW
VLJQLÀFDQWO\2OVHQUHFHQWO\UHSRUWHGLQ6FLHQFHDKLQWRI WKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVLJQDWXUHOHIWE\WKH.7LPSDFWRU³
DQLULGLXPDQRPDO\7KHPHWDOLULGLXPLVUDUHRQWKH
VXUIDFHRI WKHHDUWKEXWH[LVWVLQKLJKHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
LQWKHHDUWK·VLQWHULRUDQGLQH[WUDWHUUHVWULDOREMHFWV$W
WKH .7 ERXQGDU\ WKHUH LV D QDUURZ DOPRVW JOREDO
OD\HU RI FOD\ ZLWK D FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI LULGLXP PXFK
KLJKHU WKDQ QRUPDO³RQH RI WKH VWURQJHVW SLHFHV RI HYLGHQFHIRUDGLVDVWHUIURPWKHVN\2OVHQ·VDQRPDO\
LVIDUVPDOOHUWKDQWKHRQHDWWKH.7OHDGLQJVRPHWR
WKHRUL]HLWPLJKWDFWXDOO\EHYROFDQLFLQRULJLQ
7KH URFNV DOVR UHFRUG D FKDQJH LQ IRVVLOL]HG
SROOHQ ,W LV NQRZQ WKDW IRVVLOV RI DOO NLQGV FKDQJH
DFURVVWKHJHRORJLFERXQGDU\³LQIDFWWKDWLVKRZVXFK
ERXQGDULHV DUH GHÀQHG³EXW ULJKW DW WKH ERXQGDU\
2OVHQ DQG KLV FROOHDJXHV IRXQG D VXGGHQ MXPS LQ
WKH SUHVHQFH RI IHUQ SROOHQ 7KLV VRFDOOHG IHUQ
VSLNHZKLFKDOVRLVREVHUYHGDWWKH.7ERXQGDU\LV
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHLQLWLDOUHFRYHU\IURPDQHFRORJLFDO
GLVDVWHU (YHQ WRGD\ RSSRUWXQLVWLF IHUQV RIWHQ DUH
WKH ÀUVW WR PRYH LQ DIWHU D GLVWXUEDQFH 7KHUH DOVR
DUH FDUERQ LVRWRSH FKDQJHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH
ERXQGDU\ZKLFKLQGLFDWHVRPHNLQGRI JOREDOFKDQJH
LQ KRZ FDUERQ F\FOHV WKURXJK WKH DWPRVSKHUH RFHDQ
DQGRUJDQLVPV$QLPSDFWWKDWNLOOHGRII WKHWLQ\EXW
LQÁXHQWLDO DTXDWLF RUJDQLVPV WKDW IRUP WKH EDVLV RI PDULQH IRRG FKDLQV FRXOG FDXVH WKLV DQG WKH VDPH
SDWWHUQ RI LVRWRSH FKDQJHV DUH REVHUYHG DW WKH .7
ERXQGDU\%XWWKHUHDUHRWKHUSRWHQWLDOH[SODQDWLRQV
LQFOXGLQJVRPH³DJDLQ³WLHGWRYROFDQLVP
$OOWKHVHREVHUYDWLRQVFRLQFLGHZLWKDFKDQJH
LQIRVVLOL]HGIRRWSULQWVZKLFKWHOODQLQWHUHVWLQJVWRU\
7KH\DSSHDUWRWUDFNDVXGGHQODUJHH[WLQFWLRQIROORZHG
E\DQHYROXWLRQDU\OXUFKLQZKLFKFDUQLYRURXVGLQRVDXUV
TXLFNO\ JUHZ LQ VL]H 3ULRU WR WKH ERXQGDU\ WKHUH
ZDV D GLYHUVH DVVHPEODJH RI WHUUHVWULDO VSHFLHV 7KH
ODUJH FDUQLYRUHV DW WKLV WLPH ZHUH UHSWLOHV³VTXDW DQG
VRPHWLPHV VDLOEDFNHG UDXLVXFKLDQV DQG FURFRGLOHOLNH
SK\WRVDXUV³DQG WKH ODUJHVW GLQRVDXUV ZHUH PRGHVW
VL]HGKHUELYRUHVFDOOHGSURVDXURSRGV7KHUHZDVJOREDO
GLYHUVLW\DVZHOOIRVVLOEHGVLQRWKHUSDUWVRI WKHZRUOG
FRQWDLQGLIIHUHQWJURXSVRI VSHFLHV
$IWHUWKHERXQGDU\KRZHYHUGLYHUVLW\DSSHDUV
WR SOXPPHW 7HUUHVWULDO FRPPXQLWLHV DUH GRPLQDWHG
E\ D PXFK VPDOOHU JURXS RI OL]DUGV FURFRGLOLDQV DQG
FDUQLYRURXVGLQRVDXUVFDOOHGWKHURSRGV,QWHUHVWLQJO\
2OVHQ VD\V WKLV SKHQRPHQRQ LV JOREDO³DOO RYHU WKH
ZRUOG WKH YHU\ (DUO\ -XUDVVLF LV GRPLQDWHG E\ VLPLODU
VSHFLHVSRRU FRPPXQLWLHV 1RWDEOH LQ WKLV VHFWLRQ LV
/DUJHUWKHURSRGIRRWSULQWVEHJDQWRDSSHDULQWKH-XUDVVLFSHULRGVXSSRUWLQJ2OVHQ
VLPSDFWWKHRU\7KHLPDJHRQ
WKHOHIWLVWKHODUJHVW/DWH7ULDVVLFWKHURSRGWUDFNZKLOHWKHLPDJHRQWKHULJKWLVDQH[DPSOHRIWKHHDUOLHVW-XUDVVLF
WKHURSRGWUDFN(XEURQWHVJLJDQWHXV7KHLQFUHDVHLQWUDFNVL]HRIWZHQW\SHUFHQWLQGLFDWHVDGRXEOLQJRIERG\PDVV
&RXUWHV\RI3DXO2OVHQ
SPRINGTHECOLUMBIASCIENCEREVIEW
/LYHDQG/HW'LH
WKHÀUVWDSSHDUDQFHRI (XEURQWHVJLJDQWHXVDFDUQLYRURXV KH·VDOZD\VJRLQJWREHULJKW$QG,·PPRUHWKDQKDSS\
GLQRVDXU ZKRVH WUDFNV DUH SHUFHQW ODUJHU ZKLFK WR SRLQW RXW ZKHUH , WKLQN KH·V ZURQJµ VD\V /XFDV
FRUUHODWHV ZLWK D GRXEOLQJ RI ERG\ PDVV WKDQ DQ\ /XFDV DQG RWKHUV LQFOXGLQJ 7DQQHU DQG 3HWHU :DUG
WKHURSRGWUDFNEHIRUHWKHERXQGDU\7KLVREVHUYDWLRQ RI WKH8QLYHUVLW\RI :DVKLQJWRQDUJXHWKDWWKH7U-
LVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKHFRORJLFDOUHOHDVHWKHODUJHUHSWLOLDQ H[WLQFWLRQZDVDSXQ\DIWHUWKRXJKWWRDVHULHVRI WZR
SUHGDWRUVZHUHVZHSWRII WKHHDUWKDQGODUJHGLQRVDXUV WRIRXUHDUOLHUVWHSZLVHH[WLQFWLRQV7KLVDOWHUQDWLYH
URVHXSLQWKHLUSODFH2I WKLV2OVHQLVFRQÀGHQWEXW WKHRU\SDLQWVWKHZRUOGRI WKH/DWH7ULDVVLFDVDYHU\
GRXEWVDERXWKLVHYLGHQFHDUHFRPPRQ)RUH[DPSOH XQSOHDVDQW SODFH D VHHWKLQJ JUHHQKRXVH ZUDFNHG E\
VRPHFODLPWKDWODUJHFDUQLYRURXVGLQRVDXUVFRXOGKDYH UHSHDWHG SDUR[\VPV RI H[WLQFWLRQ 3URSRQHQWV RI H[LVWHGEHIRUHWKHERXQGDU\´:KDW>WKHFULWLFV@KDYH WKLVWKHRU\DUJXHWKDWWKHEHOLHI LQDPDVVH[WLQFWLRQ
WRGRLI WKH\GLVDJUHHZLWKWKHREVHUYDWLRQVDURXQGWKH LVWKHUHVXOWRI XVLQJSRRUWHPSRUDOUHVROXWLRQZKLFK
7ULDVVLF-XUDVVLF ERXQGDU\ RI HDVWHUQ $PHULFD WKH\ OHDGV WR WKH DUWLÀFLDO OXPSLQJ RI VHSDUDWH HYHQWV
KDYH WR FRPH XS ZLWK VRPH REVHUYDWLRQV WKDW VKRZ 2OVHQ GLVDJUHHV ´,W·V OHJDOHVH ,W·V DUJXLQJ VFLHQFH
WKDW·V LQFRUUHFWµ VD\V 2OVHQ 7KHUH LV RQH SUREOHP OLNH D ODZ\HUµ KH VD\V SRVLWLQJ WKDW EHFDXVH IRVVLOV
VXFKHYLGHQFHPD\H[LVW$IRRWSULQWIRXQGLQ$XVWUDOLD DUH GLVFUHWH GDWD SRLQWV ORRNLQJ DW VPDOO SRUWLRQ
LQWKHVLVODUJHUWKDQ(XEURQWHVDQGZDVGDWHGWR RI WKH URFN UHFRUG ZLOO DOZD\V JLYH WKH LOOXVLRQ RI D
PLOOLRQ\HDUVEHIRUHWKHERXQGDU\$FFRUGLQJWR/XFDV VWHSZLVHSDWWHUQGXHWRDVDPSOLQJDUWLIDFWFDOOHGWKH
WKH $XVWUDOLDQ IRRWSULQW ZDV D JODULQJ RYHUVLJKW RQ 6LJQRU/LSSVHIIHFW´,QUHDOLW\LW·VH[WUHPHO\GLIÀFXOW
2OVHQ·VSDUWDQGIDOVLÀHVKLVHFRORJLFDOUHOHDVHWKHRU\ WR GHPRQVWUDWH D VWHSZLVH H[WLQFWLRQ EHFDXVH DOO
´,WZDVDQHPEDUUDVVLQJO\EDGPLVWDNHµKHVD\V2OVHQ H[WLQFWLRQVZLOOORRNVWHSZLVHLQWKHIRVVLOUHFRUGDW
FRXQWHUV WKDW WKH FDVW RI WKH IRRWSULQW LV LQFRPSOHWH VRPHOHYHORI VDPSOLQJDURXQGDERXQGDU\WKDWZDV
DQG PD\ QRW EH IURP D GLQRVDXU DW DOO %XWLW LV QRW FDWDVWURSKLFµKHDGGV
RXW RI WKH UHDOP RI SRVVLELOLW\ KH FRQFHGHV WKDW DQ
3RRU UHVROXWLRQ LV D UHDO SUREOHP LQ WKH
LPSDFW FRXOG KDYH FOHDUHG WKH ZD\
URFNUHFRUG,WFDQEHGLIÀFXOWWR
³,7,69,$%/(´6$<6
IRUDODUJHVSHFLHVDVXSHUSUHGDWRU
GHWHUPLQH ZKHQ D VSHFLHV ZHQW
/$:5(1&(7$11(52)
IURPDQRWKHUSDUWRI WKHZRUOGWR
H[WLQFW RU WKH UDWH DW ZKLFK D
%/2206%85*81,9(56,7< PDVV H[WLQFWLRQ RFFXUUHG 6RPH
PLJUDWHLQWRWKH1HZDUN%DVLQ
,13(116</9$1,$2)
2OVHQ DGPLWV WKDW WKH
JURXSV RI PDULQH IRVVLOV IRU
HYLGHQFH IRU DQ LPSDFW LV ´VWLOO 2/6(1¶6,03$&77+(25< H[DPSOHZKLFKDUHXVHGWRGHÀQH
UDWKHU SDOWU\µ EXW PRVW RI KLV ³%87,767,//)$//6)$5 JHRORJLF ERXQGDULHV EHFDXVH RI REVHUYDWLRQVDUHFRQVWUDLQHGZLWKLQ
6+2572)7+((9,'(1&( WKHLU UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFH DSSHDU
\HDUV RI VHGLPHQWV DURXQG
WR ZLQN RXW EHIRUH WKH ERXQGDU\
:(+$9(2)$1,03$&7
WKH ERXQGDU\³D EOLQN RI WKH H\H
EXW RWKHUV JR RXW ZLWK D EDQJ
$77+(&5(7$&(286
LQ JHRORJLF WLPH 0RUH HYLGHQFH
ULJKWDWLW$QRWKHUSUREOHPOLHVLQ
QHHGV WR EH IRXQG SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ 7(57,$5<%281'$5<´ FRUUHODWLQJ WHUUHVWULDO DQG PDULQH
RWKHU ORFDWLRQV WR HVWDEOLVK WKH JOREDO VFDOH RI WKH VHFWLRQV7KHIRVVLOUHFRUGLVFDSULFLRXVLQWKLVZD\VR
HYHQW ´, ZRXOG DUJXH WKDW WKH LULGLXP DQRPDO\ WKDW LWFDQEHKDUGWRFRPHGRZQLQIDYRURI RQHWKHRU\
, GHVFULEH KDV WR EH VKRZQ WR EH SUHVHQW LQ RWKHU RUWKHRWKHU´'LGWKLVHYHQWFDXVHWKHLQVWDQWDQHRXV
VHFWLRQV DQG WKDW·V MXVW DQ LQFUHGLEO\ ODERULQWHQVLYH H[WLQFWLRQ RI DOO WKHVH FUHDWXUHV RU LV LW MXVW VLPSO\
RSHUDWLRQµDGPLWV2OVHQ´:RUNRQWKDWLVXQGHUZD\ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH H[WLQFWLRQ RI DOO WKHVH FUHDWXUHV
RU LV WKH UHFRUG VR FUDSS\ ZRUOGZLGH WKDW ZH FDQ·W
EXWLW·VJRLQJWRWDNHDORQJWLPHµ
´,W LV YLDEOHµ VD\V /DZUHQFH 7DQQHU RI HYHQ UHDOO\ WHOO WKDW WKHVH WKLQJV DOO ZHQW H[WLQFW DOO
%ORRPVEXUJ 8QLYHUVLW\ LQ 3HQQV\OYDQLD RI 2OVHQ·V DWWKHVDPHWLPHDQ\ZD\"µDVNV0DUN1RUUHOORI WKH
LPSDFWWKHRU\´EXWLWVWLOOIDOOVIDUVKRUWRI WKHHYLGHQFH $PHULFDQ0XVHXPRI 1DWXUDO+LVWRU\´,·PVRUWRI ZH KDYH RI DQ LPSDFW DW WKH &UHWDFHRXV7HUWLDU\ WKLQNLQJRI WKHODWWHUµ
:KHWKHU WKH H[WLQFWLRQ RFFXUUHG DOO DW RQFH
ERXQGDU\µ
,Q IDFW PDQ\ PRUH GDWD ZLOO EH QHFHVVDU\ RULQDVHULHVRI VWHSVPD\KDYHDQHIIHFWRQWKHRULHV
WR FRQYLQFH VRPH ´>2OVHQ@·V PDGH D PRQXPHQWDO DERXW LWV FDXVH $ VXGGHQ PDVV H[WLQFWLRQ PD\ EH
FRQWULEXWLRQDQGKH·OOFRQWLQXHWR7KDWGRHVQ·WPHDQ EHWWHUH[SODLQHGE\DQLPSDFWDVXGGHQJOREDOHYHQW
THECOLUMBIASCIENCEREVIEW
SPRING
/LYHDQG/HW'LH
3KRWRE\1$6$
HDUWKEHOFKHVLWVZD\WKURXJKDVHULHV
RI HQYLURQPHQWDOFKDQJHV+RZHYHU
2OVHQ LV TXLFN WR SRLQW RXW WKDW LI YROFDQLFDFWLYLW\ZDVWKHFDXVHRI WKH
REVHUYDWLRQVLWZRXOGEHWKHÀUVWRI LWVNLQGWKHUHLVQRSUHFHGHQWIRUDQ
LULGLXPDQRPDO\FDXVHGE\YROFDQLVP
7ZR RI WKH SURSRVHG PHFKDQLVPV³
LPSDFW DQG YROFDQLVP ZLWK PHWKDQH
UHOHDVH³DUH QRW QHFHVVDULO\ PXWXDOO\
H[FOXVLYH$QLPSDFWFRXOGKDYHEHHQ
WKH FRXS GH JUDFH WKDW SROLVKHG RII WD[D WKDW KDG VWDJJHUHG WKURXJK WKH
ÀUVWIHZH[WLQFWLRQV´7KLVLVVXHUHDOO\
FRPHV GRZQ WR ZKDW SHUFHQWDJH RI WKHH[WLQFWLRQHYHQWGRHVWKDWLPSDFW
H[SODLQµ VD\V 1HLO 6KXELQ RI WKH
8QLYHUVLW\RI &KLFDJR
2QH GLVFRYHU\ WKDW ZRXOG
0$1,&28$*$13(11,168/$4XHEHFDFDQGLGDWHFUDWHUVLWHIRU2OVHQ¶VSURSRVHG
7ULDVVLF-XUDVVLFERXQGDU\
VWUHQJWKHQ 2OVHQ·V SRVLWLRQ ZRXOG EH
ZKLOH D VHULHV RI H[WLQFWLRQV PLJKW EH PRUH OLNHO\ WR DELJKROHLQWKHJURXQG7KH.7FUDWHUZDVIRXQG
EH FDXVHG E\ DQ RQJRLQJ HDUWKEDVHG SURFHVV ,W RQ WKH FRDVW RI 0H[LFR EXW LI D 7U- LPSDFWRU KLW
PD\ FRPH GRZQ WR D TXHVWLRQ RI SDUVLPRQ\³ZKLFK WKH RFHDQ LWV FUDWHU DOPRVW VXUHO\ ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ
PHFKDQLVP SURYLGHV WKH VLPSOHVW H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH VXEGXFWHG EHORZ DQRWKHU FUXVWDO SODWH E\ QRZ %XW
LI LW ODQGHG RQ D FRQWLQHQW WKHUH ZRXOG EH D VFDU
REVHUYDWLRQV"
2OVHQDUJXHVWKDWWKHLPSDFWPDNHVWKHPRVW DQGWKHUHLVDSRWHQWLDOFDQGLGDWH³WKH0DQLFRXDJDQ
VHQVHEHFDXVHWKHREVHUYDWLRQVPDWFKDZHOOXQGHUVWRRG &UDWHULQQRUWKHUQ4XHEHF7KHFXUUHQWGDWHRI WKH
SDWWHUQ³WKDWREVHUYHGDWWKH.7ERXQGDU\´,SUHIHU 0DQLFRXDJDQ SODFHV LW VHYHUDO PLOOLRQ \HDUV EHIRUH
WKH SDUVLPRQLRXV H[SODQDWLRQ WKDW ERWK HYHQWV ZHUH WKH ERXQGDU\ EXW ´WKHUH·V UHDVRQ WR EHOLHYH WKDW WKH
GXHWRWKHFDPHFDXVHVµKHVD\VYLDHPDLO,QIDFWKH DJH WKDW·V FRPPRQO\ UHSRUWHG DQG DFFHSWHG LQ WKH
SODFHVWKHEXUGHQRI SURRI RQWKRVHZKREHOLHYHWKH OLWHUDWXUHPLJKWEHDOLWWOHWRRROGµDFFRUGLQJWR$QG\
H[WLQFWLRQ ZDV VWHSZLVH EHFDXVH WKH\ ZLOO QHHG PDQ\ :LQVORZ D JUDGXDWH VWXGHQW DW 681< 6WRQ\ %URRN
PRUHGDWDWRPDNHWKHLUFDVH7KHRWKHUVLGHRI WKLV ZKRLVUHGDWLQJWKHFUDWHU2OGHUJUDLQVWDNHQDVSDUW
DUJXPHQWDVVHUWVWKDWLWPDNHVPRUHVHQVHWRORRNIRU RI VDPSOHV PD\ KDYH VNHZHG WKH GDWLQJ PDNLQJ WKH
DNQRZQHDUWKEDVHGPHFKDQLVPWKDWFDQH[SODLQDOORI FUDWHUDSSHDUROGHUWKDQLWLV
(YHQ LI WKH 0DQLFRXDJDQ UHGDWLQJ FRPHV
WKHREVHUYDWLRQVUDWKHUWKDQWRUHO\RQWKHGHXVH[PDFKLQD
RI DQH[WUDWHUUHVWULDOYLVLWRU$IHZSRWHQWLDOFXOSULWVIRU EDFNULJKWDWWKH7U-ERXQGDU\WKHLVVXHVWLOOPD\QRW
WKLVPHFKDQLVPKDYHEHHQSURSRVHG,WLVNQRZQWKDW EH VHWWOHG EHFDXVH RI OLQJHULQJ TXHVWLRQV DERXW WKH
DURXQGWKH/DWH7ULDVVLFDQG(DUO\-XUDVVLFWKH&HQWUDO QDWXUHRI WKHH[WLQFWLRQV$QGLI WKHFUDWHUGRHVQRW
$WODQWLF0DJPDWLF3URYLQFH&$03RQHRI WKHODUJHVW FRUUHODWH ZLWK WKH ERXQGDU\ VFLHQWLVWV ZLOO EH OHIW WR
YROFDQLFUHOHDVHVHYHUZDVDFWLYH:KLOHPRVWRI WKLV GHWHUPLQHZKDWLI DQ\HIIHFWWKDWLPSDFWDFWXDOO\KDG
YROFDQLFDFWLYLW\ZKLFKFRYHUHGPLOOLRQRI NPZLWK 7KHRUHWLFDOFDSDFLW\LVXSWRWKHWDVNEXWWKHGDWDDUH
EDVDOWRYHUWKHFRXUVHRI WRPLOOLRQ\HDUVLVEHOLHYHG ODFNLQJVRVFLHQWLÀFFRQVHQVXVRQWKH7U-ERXQGDU\
WR KDYH WDNHQ SODFH DIWHU WKH 7U- ERXQGDU\ UHODWHG ZLOOUHPDLQHOXVLYH
´7KLV RQH DLQ·W RYHUµ VD\V /XFDV ´7KH IDW
DFWLYLW\ PLJKW EH DEOH WR H[SODLQ WKH LULGLXP DQRPDO\
$OVRRXWJDVVLQJDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHYROFDQLVPDQGWKH ODG\LVQ·WJRLQJWRVLQJRQWKLVRQHIRUDORQJWLPHµ
UHOHDVHRI PHWKDQHIURPRFHDQÁRRUVHGLPHQWVFRXOG
EHJLQ WR H[SODLQ WKH FDUERQ LVRWRSH FKDQJHV 6WHS 6DPLU3DWHOLVDJUDGXDWHVWXGHQWLQWKH'HSDUPHQWRI (DUWK
ZLVHH[WLQFWLRQVDQGDIHUQVSLNHPLJKWUHVXOWDQGWKH DQG(QYLURQPHQWDO6FLHQFH
SPRINGTHECOLUMBIASCIENCEREVIEW