THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
M316 Elementary Statistical Methods; #55950; Spring, 2011
Dr. Arlo Schurle
Office: RLM 13.164; 471-6410 (bad); [email protected] (good)
Office hours: MWF 9:30 – 10:30 & MW 2:30 – 3:30, or anytime I'm in
TEXT: The Basic Practice of Statistics, 5th edition, by David Moore
STUDENTS WITH DISABILITIES: The University of Texas at Austin provides, upon request, appropriate
academic accommodations for qualified students with disabilities. For more information contact the Office of
the Dean of Students at 471-6259, 471-4641 TTY.
THE COURSE: The prerequisite is a minimal required score (30 or greater) on the ALEKS placement exam,
OR a C- or better in a calculus, precalculus, or trigonometry course. It does NOT count toward a major in
mathematics. The course is designed to provide the student with a clear understanding of basic statistical
techniques. The schedule that follows is VERY tentative! Topics include:
• Descriptive statistics – measures of central tendency, measure of dispersion
• Probability – basic rules of probability, joint and marginal probabilities
• Statistical modeling – normal and binomial distributions, sampling distributions
• Inferential statistics – estimating means and proportions, hypothesis tests, regression and correlation
READING: You are expected to read each chapter carefully, paying close attention to examples, items in bold
print, items in boxes, … . It's best to read the chapter BEFORE the lecture, and then again AFTER!
HOMEWORK AND QUIZZES: Assignments as announced in class will be handed in nearly every
Wednesday. Late homework (more than five minutes after class begins) will NOT be accepted. Assignments
must be stapled and should be well organized, done in order, and neatly written on nice paper. HOMEWORK
WILL BE GRADED FOR COMPLETION ONLY, at 10 points per submission. In addition, on ANY given day
there may be a short timed quiz over previously assigned homework. This quiz may require you to simply
record an answer from the assigned homework, or it may require you to show some skill with recent material.
MIDTERM EXAMS: The dates for midterm exams are Mon., Feb. 21; Fri., Apr. 1; and Fri., Apr. 29.
There will be no makeup midterms. If you miss one exam for whatever reason, then its score will be the one
dropped (see below). If you miss two exams, one will be dropped and one will be a zero.
FINAL EXAM: There will be a comprehensive final examination on Friday, May13, from 2 to 5. Your
enrollment in this class confirms that, barring some calamity, you will be present for the final exam, so arrange
air flights, relative's weddings, birthday celebrations, etc., accordingly.
GRADES: Several homework/quiz scores will be dropped with the remainder counting 10% of your total
grade. The three midterm exam scores will be recorded and your final exam score will be recorded twice. The
lowest one of the resulting five scores will be dropped, with the remainder counting 90% of your total grade.
After all this dropping, I will strictly adhere to the following cutoffs: 93 <= A, 90 <= A-, 87 <= B+, 83 <= B,
80 <= B-, 77 <= C+, 73 <= C, 70 <= C-, 67 <= D+, 63 <= D, 60 <= D-. An 89.9 will be a B+.
CALCULATORS AND TECHNOLOGY: You will need a basic, non-graphing, 2-variable statistical
calculator, for example, a TI-35X or TI-30XIIS or Casio fx-300MS or …. . We will NOT spend time in class
learning how to use calculators, that is up to you. You may need calculators for quizzes and you WILL need
them for exams. The text has Using Technology sections which display and comment on output from programs
like Minitab and Excel. You may have assigned problems which require such software, though such problems
will NOT be on quizzes or exams. However, you may be expected to interpret software output on exams.
BLACKBOARD: This syllabus, lecture outlines, your grades, and other course information will be available
on Blackboard. You should check your grades to make sure they are entered correctly.
CORRECTIONS: Any corrections of exam or homework grades must be made within one week of the time
they are available via Blackboard.
DATE
CHAPTER
Jan 19
Jan 21
INTRODUCTION
1
Jan 24
Jan 26
Jan 28
1 and 2
2
3
Jan 31
Feb 02
Feb 04
3
4
5
Density curves, normal curve
Scatterplots and correlation
Linear scatterplots and regression
Feb 07
Feb 09
Feb 11
5
8
8
Linear scatterplots and regression
Producing data: sampling
Producing data: sampling
Feb 14
Feb 16
Feb 18
9
9 and 10
REVIEW
Producing data: experiments
Experiments and basic probability
Feb 21
Feb 23
Feb 25
EXAM 1
11
11
Feb 28
Mar 02
Mar 04
12
14
14
Mar 07
Mar 09
Mar 11
15
15 and 13
13
Mar 14 – 18
TOPIC
Syllabus and the beginnings
Picturing distributions with graphs
Describing distributions with numbers
Graphs and descriptions of graphs
Density curves, normal curve
Sampling distributions & Central Limit Theorem
Sampling distributions & Central Limit Theorem
Probability rules; conditional probability
Confidence intervals; significance testing
Confidence intervals; significance testing
Inference: power, Type I and II errors
Inference; Binomial distributions
Binomial random variables
BREAK
Mar 21
Mar 23
Mar 25
17
17
18
Inferences about means; t statistic
Inferences about means; t statistic
Two-sample problems
Mar 28
Mar 30
Apr 01
18
REVIEW
EXAM 2
Apr 04
Apr 06
Apr 08
19
19
20
Inferences about proportions
Inferences about proportions
Inferences about two proportions
Apr 11
Apr 13
Apr 15
20
23
23
Inferences about two proportions
Regression models
Inferences for regression; software
Apr 18
Apr 20
Apr 22
23
6
6
Inferences for regression; software
Two-way tables; Simpson's Paradox
Two-way tables; Simpson's Paradox
Apr 25
Apr 27
Apr 29
CATCH UP
REVIEW
EXAM 3
May 02
May 04
May 06
22
22
REVIEW
Inferences about two means
Chi square tests
Chi square tests