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Matakuliah
Tahun
: J1186 - Analisis Kuantitatif Bisnis
: 2009/2010
MANAJEMEN PROYEK
Pertemuan 26
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Framework
•
•
•
•
Project Crashing
Analisis Biaya Proyek
Probabilitas Proyek
Evaluasi Proyek
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Kembali ke Soal Latihan
Activity
A
Immediate
Predecessor
-
Expected
Time
5
B
-
6
C
A
4
D
A, B
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ES
Earliest Starting (time)
EF
Earliest Finishing
LS
Latest Starting
LF
Latest Finishing
Slack
Extra Time
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Earliest Starting/Finishing Times
EF = ES + t
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LS = LF - t
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What if activity times are variable?
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a
optimistic time
m
most likely time
b
pessimistic time
t = E(T)
expected time = (a + 4m + b)/6
V(T)
variance = (b - a)2/36
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Contoh Soal
Aktivitas
Aktivitas
Pendahulu
Optimis
Realistis
Pesimis
A
===
1
2
3
B
===
2
3
4
C
A
1
2
3
D
B
2
4
6
E
C
1
4
7
F
C
1
2
9
G
D,E
3
4
11
H
F,G
1
2
3
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Waktu (hari)
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Pertanyaan:
a. Buatlah bagan proyeknya
b. Tentukan waktu penyelesaian proyek
c. Jalur kritis proyek
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Contoh Soal
Immediate
Task Predecesors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
A
None
3
6
15
B
None
2
4
14
C
A
6
12
30
D
A
2
5
8
E
C
5
11
17
F
D
3
6
15
G
B
3
9
27
H
E,F
1
4
7
I
G,H
4
19
28
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Menghitung Waktu yang diharapkan
Task
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
Immediate Expected
Predecesors
Time
None
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None
5.333
A
14
A
5
C
11
D
7
B
11
E,F
4
G,H
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Expected Time =
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ET(A)=
3+4(6)+15
6
ET(A)=42/6=7
Opt. Time + 4(Most Likely Time) + Pess. Time
6
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Network
Duration = 54 Days
C(14)
E(11)
H(4)
A(7)
D(5)
F(7)
I(18)
B
(5.333)
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G(11)
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Probability Exercise
What is the probability of finishing this project in less than 53 days?
p(t < D)
D=53
t
TE = 54
Z =
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D - TE

2
cp
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A ctivity variance, 
Task
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
2
Pessim . - O ptim . 2
= (
)
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Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Variance
3
6
15
4
2
4
14
6
12
30
16
2
5
8
5
11
17
4
3
6
15
3
9
27
1
4
7
1
4
19
28
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(Sum the variance along the critical path.)
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2

 = 41
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p(t < D)
t
TE = 54
D=53
Z =
D - TE

2
cp
53 - 54
=
= -.156
41
p(Z < -.156) = .5 - .0636 = .436, or 43.6 % (Appendix E)
There is a 43.6% probability that this project will be completed in less than 53
weeks.
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