7(.$&200,66,212)02725,=$7,21$1'(1(5*(7,&6,1$*5,&8/785(ă9RO1R &RPSXWHUPRGHOLQJRIGHVWUXFWLYHILUHKD]DUGVG\QDPLFV 'PLWUL\ɆLɫ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¶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±WKHGXUDWLRQRI ILUH±ILUHDODUPDQGVSULQNOHUVUHVSRQVHWLPH ± HYDFXDWLRQ WLPH ,Q WKH RYHUDOO QXPEHU RI ILUH PRGHOV H[FHHGHGDWWKDWRIWKHPDUH GHGLFDWHG WR GLIIHUHQW DVSHFWV RI LQGRRU ILUHV VLPXODWLRQ WKH RWKHUV ±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¶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¶W KDYH GLVWLQFWFRQWRXUVXQLIRUPFURVV VHFWLRQVDQGIODPHIURQWGLVSRVLWLRQ 7KH WHPSHUDWXUH LQ YDSRU ]RQH LV PXFK ORZHUWKDQLQUHDFWLRQ]RQH$VYDSRUVWHDPVPRYH WRWKHUHDFWLRQ]RQHWKHLUWHPSHUDWXUHULVHVILUVWDW WKH H[SHQVH RI IODPH WKHUPDO UDGLDWLRQ WKHQ ±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¶ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ GURS ZKLFK OHDGV WR KHDW HPLVVLRQ OHYHOIDOODQGWHPSHUDWXUHGHFUHDVHV $LU R[\JHQ SDUWLDO SUHVVXUH DW VWDQGDUG FRQGLWLRQV HTXDOV N3D ZKHUHDV LQ EXUQLQJ UHDFWLRQDUHDLWHTXDOVWKHUHIRUHR[\JHQIURPWKH DLU GLIIXVHV WKURXJK FRPEXVWLRQ SURGXFWV OD\HU WR WKH UHDFWLRQ DUHD GXH WR GLIIHUHQFHV LQ SDUWLDO SUHVVXUH %XUQLQJ UHDFWLRQ UDWH DW WKH KHLJKW RI SURFHVV JHQHUDOO\ GHSHQGV RQO\ RQ WKH DPRXQW RI R[\JHQ FRPLQJ LQWR WKH UHDFWLRQ DUHD LH RQ LWV GLIIXVLRQUDWH '0,75,<Ɇ,ɋ+$</29 6XEVWDQFHV LQWHUDFWLRQ LQ JDV DQG YDSRU SKDVHV SURJUHVV PXFK TXLFNHU WKDQ LQ OLTXLG RU VROLG VWDWH 6ROLG PDWHULDOV DQG R[LGDQW LQWHUDFWLRQ YHORFLW\ FKDQJHV GUDPDWLFDOO\ GHSHQGLQJRQWKHLUJUDQXODWLRQUDWLR :KHQ LQGRRU ILUHV YROXPLF DYHUDJH WHPSHUDWXUHRIWKHSUHPLVHVZKHUHILUHWDNHVSODFH LV WDNHQ DV WKHLU ILUH WHPSHUDWXUHV 7KDW LV ZK\ WKHVH ILUHV FRPSDUHG WR RXWGRRU RQHV DUH VRPHWLPHV FDOOHG VXEDPELHQW 0D[LPDO WHPSHUDWXUHDWWKHVHILUHVLVORFDWHGLQWKHEXUQLQJ DUHDDQGDERYHLW0LQLPDOWHPSHUDWXUHLVUHFRUGHG LQWKHUHPRWHVWSRLQWIURPWKHEXUQLQJDUHDDQGRQ WKH URRP IORRU 7KH IROORZLQJ IDFWRUV DIIHFW WKH LQGRRU ILUH WHPSHUDWXUH ILUH SURSDJDWLRQ UDWH VXUURXQGLQJHTXLSPHQWDQGIUDPHILOOLQJZDUPXS JDVHRXVH[FKDQJHUDWHHWF 6KDUSWHPSHUDWXUHULVHVE\URRP KHLJKW LVD IHDWXUH RI LQGRRU ILUHV WHPSHUDWXUH GLVWULEXWLRQ 7HPSHUDWXUH ULVH LV WKH PRVW YLVLEOH LQ SUHPLVHV ZLWK VPDOO VWXG :KHQ ILUH EXUQV LQ FORVHG DLU SDUFHO JDV H[FKDQJH RFFXUV DW WKH H[SHQVH RI FRQYHFWLYH VWUHDPV RI DLUJDV EOHQG DQG R[\JHQ GLIIXVLRQLQWRWKHEXUQLQJDUHD,QWKLVFDVHLWLVWKH DPRXQW RI DLU ILOOLQJ WKH YROXPH RI SUHPLVHV ZKHUHWKHILUHRFFXUVWKDWDIIHFWVILUHSURSDJDWLRQ &RPEXVWLRQ SURGXFWV FRPSRVLWLRQ GHSHQGV RQ WKH FKHPLFDO FRPSRVLWLRQ RI FRPEXVWLEOH PDWHULDOV DQG EXUQLQJ FRQGLWLRQV :KHQ H[FHVV FRHIILFLHQW LV FORVH WR RQH FRPEXVWLEOH PDWHULDOV EXUQLQFRPSOHWHO\DVDUHVXOWYDULRXVVXER[LGL]HG VXEVWDQFHV JHQHUDOO\ EHLQJ KLJKWR[LF VXEVWDQFHV OLNH F\DQK\GULF DFLG FDUERQ PRQR[LGH DFU\ORQLWULOH DFUROHLQ SKRVJHQH K\GURJHQ FKORULGHDQGDQK\GURXVK\GURJHQIOXRULGHHWFFDQ FRPH LQWR WKH DLU RI SUHPLVHV RU LQWR VPRNH IRUPDWLRQ DUHD 6ROLG VXEVWDQFHV LQ WKH IRUP RI VODJVDQGVPDOOGLVSHUVHGSDUWLFOHVFRQWDLQLQJVRRW DQG VROLG R[LGHV FDQ EH JHQHUDWHG DORQJ ZLWK JDVHRXV DQG YDSRURXV SURGXFWV RI FRPEXVWLRQ 7KHVHGLVSHUVHGSDUWLFOHVGXHWRWKHLUVPDOOYROXPH DUH XVXDOO\ LQ VXVSHQVLRQ VWDWH DQG FDUULHG DZD\ IURP EXUQLQJ DUHD ZLWK FRQYHFWLRQ IORZV ZKLFK OHDGV WR VPRNH IRUPDWLRQ 6PRNH SDUWLFOHV GLDPHWHU LV TXLWH LQVLJQLILFDQW DQG FDQ EH IURP WR PLFURPHWHU /DUJHU SDUWLFOHV ZLWK UHODWLYHO\ELJJHUPDVVIDOORXWRIFRQYHFWLRQIORZ 1RZDGD\VUHVHDUFKHUVXVH YDULRXVFRPSXWHU FRGHV WR VLPXODWH ILUH KD]DUGV G\QDPLFV ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKHVH FRGHV UHTXLUHV KLJK SHUIRUPDQFHFRPSXWHUVHVSHFLDOO\LQWKHVSKHUHRI WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO PRGHOLQJ 7KH UHVXOWV RI PRGHOLQJDOORZWRSUHGLFWGHYHORSPHQWRIGLIIHUHQW ILUHV DQG PDNH UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ WKH W\SH RI ILUHH[WLQJXLVKLQJ PHDQV XVHG DQG WKHLU GLVSRVLWLRQ )URP WKH KXJH YDULHW\ RI PRGHOV DQG SURJUDP SDFNDJHV EDQG PRGHOV DUH WKH PRVW ZLGHO\ VSUHDG QRZDGD\V >@ 7KH\ DUH EDVHG RQ HQHUJ\ DQG PDVV FRQVHUYDWLRQ ODZV IRU JDVDLU HQYLURQPHQW RI SUHPLVHV (QYLURQPHQW FRQGLWLRQ GXULQJ ILUH LV DW WKH PRPHQW FDOFXODWHG E\ ]RQHV =RQH LV D VSDFH LQ WKH URRP YROXPH ZKHUH WHPSHUDWXUH DQG SK\VLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DUH DVVXPHG LGHQWLFDO 7KXV DV D UHVXOW RI PRGHOLQJ VFLHQWLVWV UHFHLYH ]RQH WHPSHUDWXUH DQG RWKHU FKDUDFWHULVWLFVWLPH YDULDWLRQ G\QDPLFV $VDUXOH WKH PDLQ VWUHVV LQ EDQG PRGHO LV PDGH RQ FDOFXODWLRQ RI JDVHRXV PHGLXP WKHUPDO FRQGLWLRQ DQG FRPEXVWLRQ SURGXFWV FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ SUHPLVHV 'LIIHUHQW EDQG PRGHOV GLYLGH WKH URRP LQWR GLIIHUHQW QXPEHU RI FKHFNLQJ YROXPHV GHSHQGLQJRQWKHGHVLUHGOHYHORIGHWDLOLQJ ,Q UHDO ILUH HQYLURQPHQW ZKHQ PRGHUQ SRO\PHULF PDWHULDOV VWDUW EXUQLQJ SUHPLVHV EHFRPHILOOHGZLWKVPRNHYHU\TXLFNO\LQVHYHUDO PLQXWHV7KHUHIRUHSK\VLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIJDVHRXV PHGLXP FDQ EH FRQVLGHUHG HTXDO DOO RYHU WKH SUHPLVHYROXPHRQHEDQGPRGHO :KHQ EUHDNLQJ WKH ZLQGRZ RSHQLQJ WHPSHUDWXUHMXPSRFFXUV$WWKDWVWURQJLQWHUDFWLRQ RI VXEVWDQFHV IURP WKH WZR ]RQHV WDNHV SODFH FRQVHTXHQWO\WHPSHUDWXUHLQWKH ORZHU]RQHULVHV ZKHUHDV LQ WKH XSSHU ]RQH LW GURSV 7KLV SURFHVV FDQQRWEHUHIOHFWHGLQRQHEDQGPRGHO7KHLQGRRU SUHVVXUHIDOOV ZKLFKFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHSURFHVV RI KRWFRPEXVWLRQSURGXFWVZHDWKHULQJULJKWDIWHUWKH ZLQGRZLVRSHQHG$WWKDWWKH]RQHV¶WHPSHUDWXUHV VRPHZKDW GHFUHDVH ZKLOH WKH ERXQGDU\ EHWZHHQ WZR ]RQHV ULVHV 7KH LQIORZ RI R[\JHQ IDFLOLWDWHV IXUWKHU VSUHDGLQJ RI ILUH DQG ]RQHV¶ WHPSHUDWXUHV FRQWLQXHWRULVH 7ZREDQG FRPEXVWLRQ PRGHO LV PRUH ZLGHVSUHDG $FFRUGLQJ WR WKLV PRGHO XSSHU DQG ORZHU ]RQHV DUH GLVWLQJXLVKHG LQ WKH URRP 7KH ILUVWRQHLVKRWWHUDQGPRUHVPRNHILOOHGZKLOHWKH VHFRQG RQH LV FRROHU DQG GRHVQ¶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ɋ ZLQGRZ JODVV EXUVWV DQG D PRUH LQWHQVH KHDW DQG PDVV H[FKDQJH ZLWK HQYLURQPHQW RFFXUV 7KLV PRGHO DOVR GHVFULEHV WKH VSUHDG RI IODPH RYHU WKH ORDG VXUIDFH DQG LWV IXUWKHU DWWHQXDWLRQ *DVHRXV PL[WXUH PDLQ FRPSRQHQWV PDVV FKDQJH G\QDPLFV LQWKHURRPYROXPHLVWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWR[\JHQ LQHUWJDVHVDQGFRPEXVWLRQSURGXFWV $V ILUH SURJUHVVHV WKH WZREDQG ILUH PRGHO GRHVQ¶W HQDEOH VXFK LQGRRU JDVHRXV PHGLXP WHPSHUDWXUH ULVH DV RQHEDQG PRGHO ,W LV FDXVHG E\ WKH IROORZLQJ UHDVRQV XSSHU ]RQH FRQVWDQWO\ ORVHV KHDW WKURXJK UDGLDWLRQFRQYHFWLYH KHDW H[FKDQJH ZLWKUHODWLYHO\FRROHUORZHU]RQHXSSHU ]RQH HQHUJ\ LV SDUWO\ VSHQW RQ FKDQJH RI LWV RZQ YROXPH WKH PHQWLRQHG DERYH WZREDQG PRGHO GRHVQ¶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uuPVL]HG URRP LQ D uPVL]HG SDQ IRU WLPH IUDPHV RI DQG VHFRQGV 5DWHG WHPSHUDWXUH ILHOGV GHQRWH FRPSOHWLRQ RI FRPEXVWLRQJDVHVPRYHPHQWDORQJWKHFHLOLQJDQG WKHLUIXUWKHUVXEVLGLQJDORQJWKHZDOOV$WWKDWLWLV REYLRXV WKDW VXEVLGLQJ RI JDVHV RFFXUV SUHGRPLQDQWO\ DORQJ WKH FRUQHUV RI URRP ,W LV FDXVHG E\ WKH ODUJH VXUIDFH RI KHDW H[FKDQJH QDPHO\LQWKHVHORFDWLRQV*UHDWHUFKLOOLQJRIJDVHV RFFXUVDWWKHH[SHQVHRIWKLVSKHQRPHQRQ $ VHW RI HTXDWLRQV LQ WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO F\OLQGULFDOSRODUFRRUGLQDWHVLVXVHGIRUVLPXODWLRQ 7KH VHW FRQVLVWV RI RQH PHGLXP FRQWLQXLW\ HTXDWLRQ WKUHH FRQVHUYDWLRQ RI OLQHDU PRPHQWXP HTXDWLRQV DORQJ UDGLDO WDQJHQWLDO DQG YHUWLFDO GLUHFWLRQV IXHO YDSRUV FRQFHQWUDWLRQ FRQVHUYDWLRQ HTXDWLRQV HQHUJ\ FRQVHUYDWLRQ HTXDWLRQV DQG WZR HTXDWLRQV IRU WXUEXOHQW NLQHWLF HQHUJ\ DQG HQHUJ\ GLVVLSDWLRQYHORFLW\ )RU QXPHULFDO LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ WKLV VHW RI HTXDWLRQVZDVIRUPDWWHGDVDJHQHUDOL]HGWUDQVSRUW HTXDWLRQ LQ WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO F\OLQGULFDO SRODU FRRUGLQDWHV 7KLV VHW RI HTXDWLRQV ZDV VXSSOHPHQWHG ZLWK VWDWH HTXDWLRQ DQG WXUEXOHQW YLVFRVLW\UDWLR '0,75,<Ɇ,ɋ+$</29 )LJ 7HPSHUDWXUH ILHOGV DW HWKDQRO FRPEXVWLRQ LQ WKH uPVL]HG SDQ LQ WKH FHQWUH RI D uuPVL]HG URRP LQ WLPHIUDPHVRIDQGVHFRQGV &21&/86,216 &RPEXVWLRQPRGHOVDQDO\VLVEDVHGRQPDVV PRPHQWXPDQGHQHUJ\FRQVHUYDWLRQODZVRUXVLQJ H[SHULPHQWDO GDWD WR REWDLQ WKH VRXJKW UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ FHUWDLQ SDUDPHWHUV HQDEOHV XVWRGUDZDFRQFOXVLRQWKDWRQRQHKDQGLQERWK FDVHVVRPHHUURUVRFFXUZKHQGRLQJPDWKHPDWLFDO UHGXFWLRQ RU VLPSOLILFDWLRQ 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG ZKHQ FRQVLGHULQJ FRQYHFWLYH FROXPQ LQ SUHPLVHV ZLWK RSHQ DSHUWXUH WKH PRGHOV GRQ¶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ʋ 'UREQLɫ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ʋ /LVLWV\Q2*%DGUXVKNR61)HDWXUHVRI GHYHORSPHQW RI D ILUH LQ FORVHG UHVLGHQWLDO DQG DGPLQLVWUDWLYH EXLOGLQJV +HUDOG RI 368 3RORWVN 368ʋ 0ROFKDGVN\ ,6 $ ILUH LQ WKH URRP 0 )LUH3UHYHQWLRQɪ 0RUJXQRY .3 0RUJXQRYD 7< 1XPHULFDO FDOFXODWLRQ RI WKH YHORFLW\ ILHOG DQG WHPSHUDWXUH RI WKH DLU XQGHU ILUH &RQVWUXFWLRQDQG DUFKLWHFWXUHʋ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Ɍȿ.$ &RPPLVVLRQ RI PRWRUL]DWLRQ DQG HQHUJHWLFV LQ DJULFXOWXUH ± 9RO1R 3X]DFK 69 0HWKRGV IRU FDOFXODWLQJ WKH KHDWDQGPDVVWUDQVIHULQDILUHDWWKHSUHPLVHVDQG WKHLU DSSOLFDWLRQ LQ VROYLQJ SUDFWLFDO SUREOHPV RI ILUH DQG H[SORVLRQ 0RVFRZ $FDGHP\ RI 5XVVLDQ 0LQLVWU\IRU(PHUJHQF\6LWXDWLRQV 3X]DFK 69 .D]HQQRY 90 0RGLILHG LQWHJUDOFDOFXODWLRQPRGHO7KHUPRJDVG\QDPLFVILUH LQ WKH URRP 7H[WERRN 0RVFRZ $FDGHP\ RI 5XVVLDQ0LQLVWU\IRU(PHUJHQF\6LWXDWLRQV 5\]KRY $0 7KUHHGLPHQVLRQDO &)' PRGHOLQJ RI ILUH ZLWK WKH SURFHVVHV RI FRPEXVWLRQ DQG HPLVVLRQ VRPH SUREOHPV DQG VROXWLRQV )LUH DQGH[SORVLRQ03R]KQDXNDʋ 6KDUVKDQRY$-8VLQJ3&EDVHGSURJUDPV LQVWXGLHVRIWKHVSUHDGRIILUHILJKWLQJ)LUHVDIHW\ 6FLHQWLILF SXEOLFDWLRQ &KHUNDV\ &+,3% ,QWHUQDO $IIDLUVRI8NUDLQH 6Q\W\XN 9( %\FKHQNR $$ (YROXWLRQDU\ PRGHOLQJ RI WKH VSUHDG RI ILUH ,Q 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH ;,,, ,QW &RQI ©.QRZOHGJH 'LDORJXH6ROXWLRQª9DUQD 6RNRORY 9 $]DUHQNR 1 6RNRORYD < 6LPXODWLRQ RI WKH SRZHU XQLW RI WKH DXWRPDWLF HOHFWURK\GUDXOLF GULYH ZLWK YROXPH UHJXODWLRQ Ɍȿ.$&RPPLVVLRQRIPRWRUL]DWLRQDQGHQHUJHWLFV LQDJULFXOWXUH±9RO1R 6WR\DQRY$)2SHUDWLRQDOHYDOXDWLRQRIWKH PDLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHVFHQDULRRID ILUHLQWKH SUHPLVHV )LUH VDIHW\ 6FLHQWLILF SXEOLFDWLRQ &KHUNDV\&+,3%0LQLVWU\RI8NUDLQH 7LVKFKHQNR ($ 'UREQLFK 83 ,QWHJUDO PRGHO PHDQ EXON WHPSHUDWXUH LQ WKH URRP LQ WKH HDUO\ VWDJHV RI D ILUH 7KH SUREOHPV RI ILUH VDIHW\ +18*=89RO ɄɈɆɉɖɘɌȿɊɇɈȿɆɈȾȿɅɂɊɈȼȺɇɂȿ ȾɂɇȺɆɂɄɂɈɉȺɋɇɕɏɎȺɄɌɈɊɈȼɉɈɀȺɊȺ ȾɦɢɬɪɢɣɆɢɯɚɣɥɨɜ Ⱥ ɧ ɧ ɨ ɬ ɚ ɰ ɢ ɹ Ɋɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɨ ɮɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɨɟ ɫɨɞɟɪɠɚɧɢɟ ɨɩɚɫɧɵɯ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɩɨɠɚɪɚ ɢɡɥɨɠɟɧɵ ɨɫɧɨɜɵ ɫɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɜ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɢɯ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɤɢ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɧɚ ɫɭɳɧɨɫɬɶ ɡɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɢ ɩɨɥɟɜɨɝɨ ɞɢɮɮɟɪɟɧɰɢɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɜ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɩɨɠɚɪɚ Ɋɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɩɨɡɜɨɥɹɸɬɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɬɶɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɟɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɯɩɨɠɚɪɨɜɢ ɜɵɪɚɛɚɬɵɜɚɬɶ ɪɟɤɨɦɟɧɞɚɰɢɢ ɩɨ ɬɢɩɭ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɹɟɦɵɯ ɫɪɟɞɫɬɜɩɨɠɚɪɨɬɭɲɟɧɢɹɢɢɯɪɚɡɦɟɳɟɧɢɸ Ʉɥɸɱɟɜɵɟ ɫ ɥ ɨ ɜ ɚ ɉɨɠɚɪ ɤɨɦɩɶɸɬɟɪɧɨɟ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɟɡɨɧɧɵɟɦɨɞɟɥɢɩɨɥɟɜɵɟɦɨɞɟɥɢ
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz