Lincoln Drivers Report
Spring 2012
Foreword
The Lincoln Drivers Report is an annual report of the City of Lincoln Council
which encompasses a breadth of information, and focuses on the key
demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of, and challenges to,
Lincoln. In doing this, it acts as the evidence base behind the City Council’s
Strategic Priorities. These are:
•
•
•
•
•
Reducing Poverty and Disadvantage
Seek to Increase the Supply of Affordable Housing to Rent or to Buy
Improve the Council’s Housing Landlord Function
Reduction of the City’s Carbon Footprint
A ‘Fit for Purpose’ Council
This report is aligned to these Strategic Priorities where possible but does
differ in some areas for consistency with previous reports. Examples of this
include the merging, in this report, of the priorities concerning Affordable
Housing and the Council’s Housing Landlord Function, as well as Carbon
Footprint with general information on the environment and heritage.
Additionally, “A ‘Fit for Purpose’ Council” was considered outside the remit of
this report as it does not directly relate to quality of life issues within the city as
a whole.
The Lincoln Drivers Report uses information sourced from the City Council, as
well as other organisations. This enables the City Council, along with all its
partners, to use this information when developing strategic direction, creating
and implementing policy, and ensuring resources continue to be targeted
effectively.
In essence, it is a valuable source of summary information, all contained in
one document. It draws and collates information from across the full range of
quality of life factors and so paints a unique picture of what it’s like to live and
work in the city. The report is therefore a vital tool to use when planning the
delivery of services across the public sector.
Further Information
Your views are important to the Council. If you have any comments on this
report or require further information, please use the contact details below:
Write to:
James Wilkinson
Policy Unit (CX)
City of Lincoln Council
City Hall
Beaumont Fee
Lincoln
LN1 1DD
Email:
[email protected]
Page 1
March 2012
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary........................................................................................4
2. Map of Lincoln Ward Boundaries ..................................................................6
3. Our Population ................................................................................................7
3.1 Lincoln’s Growing Population ......................................................................7
Migration................................................................................................ 10
3.2 Ward Level Population .............................................................................. 12
3.3 Student Dwellings in the City..................................................................... 13
4. Reducing Poverty and Disadvantage .......................................................... 14
4.1 Relative Deprivation .................................................................................. 14
4.2 Our Economy ............................................................................................ 16
Child Poverty ......................................................................................... 16
NEETs ................................................................................................... 18
District Unemployment .......................................................................... 19
Ward Unemployment............................................................................. 20
Income................................................................................................... 21
4.3 Our Safety ................................................................................................. 22
Crime..................................................................................................... 22
Antisocial Behaviour .............................................................................. 24
4.4 Our Education ........................................................................................... 25
Key Stage 1 ........................................................................................... 25
Key Stage 2 ........................................................................................... 26
Key Stage 4 ........................................................................................... 27
University Students................................................................................ 28
Adult Qualifications................................................................................ 29
Page 2
4.5 Our Health ................................................................................................. 30
Female Life Expectancy ........................................................................ 30
Male Life Expectancy ............................................................................ 30
Ward Level Life Expectancy .................................................................. 31
Additional Health Indicators ................................................................... 32
Physical activity ..................................................................................... 33
Mental Health ........................................................................................ 34
5. Our Carbon Footprint, Environment and Heritage..................................... 35
5.1 Emissions across Lincoln .......................................................................... 35
5.2 City Council Emissions .............................................................................. 36
5.3 Brownfield Land......................................................................................... 37
5.4 Natural Environment.................................................................................. 38
5.5 Heritage..................................................................................................... 38
6. Our City’s Housing and the City Council’s Landlord Function................. 39
6.1 House Prices and Affordability .................................................................. 39
Housing Affordability.............................................................................. 40
Mortgage and Landlord Possession Orders .......................................... 41
6.2 Affordable Homes...................................................................................... 42
Recently Built Affordable Homes ........................................................... 42
Stock of Affordable Homes .................................................................... 42
6.3 Waiting List and Lettings ........................................................................... 43
Waiting List by Type .............................................................................. 43
Number of Lettings by Property Type .................................................... 44
Average Weekly Rents .......................................................................... 44
Council Tenants in receipt of Housing Benefit ....................................... 45
7. Conclusion .................................................................................................... 46
Page 3
1. Executive Summary
Lincoln is a small, densely populated city of 36 square kilometres, and an
estimated 89,700 residents. It has recently received national attention when
Steep Hill was awarded the Great Street 2012 award by the Academy of
Urbanism. With a young population, it differs in demographic character from
the rest of Lincolnshire. The city’s young population is likely to be contributed
to by the present of large educational establishments such as the University of
Lincoln.
Like many places, Lincoln is made up of areas of relative affluence, and
relative deprivation. The Indices of Multiple Deprivation tells us that 7 areas of
the city (from a total of 57) are amongst the most 10% deprived nationally.
Many of these areas have a proportionately large young population.
In terms of the economy, Lincoln continues to face a number of challenges.
One of these is Lincoln’s relatively high rate of child poverty, with
approximately one quarter of all children classed as living in poverty.
Additionally, Lincoln’s high rate of 16-18 year olds not in education,
employment or training, and high unemployment claimant rate, impact on the
economic well-being of people in the city.
Lincoln has, in recent years, experienced an overall reduction in crime.
Despite serious acquisitive crime, which tends to be crime that results in
material gain, showing increases in 2010/11, early 2011/12 data showed signs
of reductions, particularly in regard to burglary (dwelling). The number of
requests made to the City Council regarding antisocial behaviour has
fluctuated over the last 3 years.
Educational attainment has increased at Key Stages 1, 2 and 4. However,
despite the gap in attainment between Lincoln and Lincolnshire appearing to
decrease at Key Stage 4, the differences in attainment at Key Stages 1 and 2
have shown signs of widening. Positively, a high proportion of University of
Lincoln graduates have succeeded in moving on to further study or
employment, with many being employed in Lincoln or close by. Additionally,
estimates suggest adult attainment has increased in Lincoln, with Lincoln
performing above the regional standard at all NVQ levels.
Female life expectancy in the city is increasing, and although it still lags
behind the national rate, the gap is showing signs of decreasing. In contrast,
although male life expectancy is also increasing, there are signs of a widening
gap between Lincoln and the country. Additional health indicators relating to
premature mortality show Lincoln has a higher rate than England for certain
diseases, although the data suggests this gap could also be decreasing.
The estimated tonnes of carbon emissions per capita in the city remains low in
comparison to the rest of Lincolnshire and the East Midlands. Part of this is
due to Lincoln’s comparatively low emissions in regard to road transport. This
is perhaps unsurprising when we consider Lincoln’s road network covers
approximately 280 kilometres, compared to the county road network which
Page 4
covers approximately 9,000 kilometres. A positive picture can be seen in
regard to brownfield land in Lincoln, which has seen a 49.9% reduction over
the last 9 years. Whilst some of this reduction may be attributable to changes
in the definition of what is included as brownfield land, the figures are still
indicative of an overall reducing trend due to development of brownfield land
in the city.
In terms of the city’s heritage, Lincoln’s 36 square kilometres is steeped in
history and character, and one part of the city recently received national
attention when Steep Hill was awarded the Great Street 2012 award by the
Academy of Urbanism.
In 2010, average house prices across Lincolnshire, the East Midlands and
England showed signs of increasing. In contrast, the average house price in
Lincoln continued to fall; meaning house prices in Lincoln remained more
affordable in comparison with resident pay than many parts of the country.
Nevertheless, with latest pay data suggesting a fall in peoples’ incomes,
affordability may become an increasing issue in the future. Despite this, since
2008, the numbers of landlord and mortgage possession orders have, overall,
reduced, despite figures showing Lincoln compares worse compared to the
county, region and country. The high number of households on the housing
waiting list shows continued demand for affordable housing.
Page 5
2. Map of Lincoln Ward Boundaries
Page 6
3. Our Population
3.1 Lincoln’s Growing Population
Since 2000, the population of Lincoln has increased by 5.5% to 89,700 in
2010 (4,700 people). This compares to an increase of 6.1% across England.
In just one year (from 2009 to 2010), Lincoln’s population was estimated to
have increased by 1.4% 1 . This was due to an estimated net migration of 700
people, a higher birth rate than death rate, as well as natural change 2 .
Lincoln's Increasing Population
91,000
90,000
Total Population
89,000
88,000
87,000
86,000
85,000
84,000
83,000
Mid-2002
Mid-2003
Mid-2004
Mid-2005
Mid-2006
Mid-2007
Mid-2008
Mid Year Estimate
Source: Office for National Statistics (2011)
1
2
LRO (2011) 2010 Mid Year Estimates Population – Quick Reference Sheet
ONS (2011) Mid 2010 Population Estimates Analysis Tool
Page 7
Mid-2009
Mid-2010
The physical nature of Lincoln as the principle economic locality within a large
rural county, and the presence of a university with over 10,000 students
studying within the city, along with more than 400 students studying just
outside in the Lincoln Riseholme campus 3 , has impacted upon the make-up of
Lincoln’s population (more discussed later in this chapter). There are an
estimated 11,600 20-24 year olds living in the city, and people aged 15-29
make up 29% of the total population. This is in contrast to the 20% that 15-29
year olds make up across the United Kingdom 4 .
The Population of Lincoln by Age
14.0
12.0
Thousands
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
0
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
Quinary Age Bands
Source: Office for National Statistics (2011)
3
4
University of Lincoln (2011) Key Facts about the University of Lincoln
ONS (2011) Mid 2010 Population Estimates
Page 8
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Lincoln’s population is estimated to increase by 5.4% (to 94,500) by 2030. As
the Population Pyramid shows below, it is not expected there will be a large
change in the proportion of people in their early 20s, however, a reduction in
the proportion of people in their late 40s and early 50s is expected to be met
with an increase in the proportion of people aged in their mid 70s and above 5 .
Source: Office for National Statistics (2011)
NB. The lines on the Pyramid chart above show our current position, whereas the shaded
areas show our estimated 2030 position.
5
ONS (2011) Population Projections to 2030
Page 9
Migration
The estimated population of Lincoln changed from 88,500 in 2009 to 89,700 in
2010. This was calculated by a number of factors such as births, deaths,
natural change, and net migration. The net migration during this period was
estimated to be +700. This was the net result of people moving into and out of
Lincoln, from elsewhere in the UK or abroad 6 .
To put this in the regional context, Lincoln net migration accounted for 58.3%
of the total estimated population increase, compared to net migration
accounting for 53.0% of the total increase in population across the East
Midlands. Therefore, proportionately, net migration is having a marginally
higher impact in Lincoln than the regional average. However, the fact Lincoln
is a university city is likely to impact on the churn of people moving into and
out of the city. This potential reason is supported by internal migration
estimates that suggest a significant number of internal migrants (from
elsewhere in the UK) aged 18-24 come to Lincoln 7 .
Migrant worker inflow
National Insurance registrations by overseas nationals provide us with a good
indication of country of origin of foreign workers. Across Lincolnshire in
2010/11, DWP data showed there to have been approximately 6,440
registrations made by overseas nationals across Lincolnshire. About 1,130 of
these were in Lincoln.
Of these it is estimated:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
69.6% were from EU Accession States (e.g. Latvia, Lithuania, Poland)
12.5% were from Asia and the Middle East
11.6% were from EU Countries
2.7% were from Africa
1.8% were from the Americas
0.9% were from other European Countries
0.9% were from Australasia and Oceania
The most common countries of origin in 2010/11 were:
•
•
•
Republic of Latvia (about 250 registrations)
Republic of Lithuania (about 240 registrations)
Poland (about 230 registrations)
6
ONS (2011) Mid-2010 Population Estimates components of change
ONS (2011) 2010 Numbers to and from each LA in England & Wales from and to the rest of
the UK
7
Page 10
The gender split of National Insurance registrations by overseas nationals in
2010/11 was:
•
•
55.4% male
44.6% female 8
Limitations of National Insurance data as an indicator of migration
National Insurance registrations by overseas nationals only make up a part of
incoming international migration. For example, some migrant workers may
have entered the UK as refugees first. Additionally, whereas it is a good
measure of inflow of migrant workers, it does not measure outflows of the
same people. Furthermore, the data does not show how many other people
may have migrated to the UK with the applicant. For example, some migrant
workers may have brought family members, while others may have entered
the UK alone.
Worker Registration Scheme
The worker registration scheme began in May 2004 to collect information on
workers from the 8 EU Accession States registering for jobs in the UK.
However, around a third of migrants nationally may be missed from this data
due to unemployment, self-employment, or not registering. What data there is
for Lincoln in 2010/11 provides an indication of employment types. It shows
the majority of those who registered on this scheme in Lincoln worked in lower
skilled jobs such as process operatives, followed by farm workers / farm
hands, and then cleaners / domestic staff 9 . The presence of farm workers /
farm hands as an occupation suggests some migrant workers may be
attracted to Lincoln partly due to job opportunities in the agricultural sector
surrounding the city.
8
DWP (2011) National Insurance registrations by overseas nationals
ONS (2011) WRS Registration data cited by LRO (2011) International Migration in
Lincolnshire 2010/11
9
Page 11
3.2 Ward Level Population
Ward Level Populations
14,000
11,732
12,000
Population
10,014
10,000
7,843 7,327 7,202
8,000
7,201 7,409 8,651
7,271 7,340
6,501
6,000
4,000
2,000
rk
Pa
be
ar
ts
ho
lm
e
M
in
st
er
M
oo
rla
nd
H
G
le
Ab
be
y
Bi
rc
hw
oo
d
Bo
ul
th
Br
am
ac
eb
rid
ge
C
ar
ho
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C
as
tle
0
Ward
Source: Office for National Statistics (2010)
NB. Numbers will not add to 89,700 as ward estimates are from mid-2009 estimates.
NB. Mid 2009 Quinary Estimates for 2009 Statistical Wards Revised used.
Lincoln’s most populous wards are those surrounding the city centre. If
combined, Abbey, Carholme and Park account for one-third of the city’s total
population.
As noted on page five, Lincoln has a young population, which is particularly
concentrated in wards east and west of the city centre. In Carholme ward, the
15-29 population is estimated to account for approximately half of the ward
population. In addition, approximately one-third of the population of Abbey
and Park is estimated to be aged 15-29.
In contrast, the highest occurrences of residents aged over 65 are in Minster
and Boultham wards, where this age group accounts for approximately twofifth of the total populations in each area 10 .
10
ONS (2011) Mid 2009 Population Estimates
Page 12
3.3 Student Dwellings in the City
As already noted earlier in this chapter, the large student population living
within the city has impacted upon the demographic character of Lincoln. Since
the establishment of the University of Lincoln in 1996, the student population
has continued to grow. A significant amount of purpose built on-campus and
off-campus accommodation meets a large proportion of the demand.
However, a substantial number of students also rent accommodation within
the private sector.
Ward/Area
Student dwellings
(not purpose built)
(2006)*
Student dwellings
(not purpose built)
(2008)
Student dwellings
(not purpose built)
(2009)
Student dwellings
(not purpose built)
(2010)
Student dwellings
(purpose built)
(2010)
Number of
residential
addresses (2010)
Student dwellings
(not purpose built)
as % of ward
dwellings (2010)
Student dwellings
(purpose built) as %
of ward dwellings
(2010)
Council tax exemption records identify the largest concentration of students in
the non purpose built private sector to be in the wards of Carholme and Park,
although figures also show that most students living in Carholme live in
purpose built accommodation. There are high numbers in Abbey, Boultham,
and Castle wards; however they make up a smaller percentage of the total
dwellings in the ward 11 . This helps build a picture of areas such as Carholme,
Abbey and Park which are identified as having a young population.
Abbey
126
198
152
194
21
6094
3.18
0.34
Birchwood
*
*
*
11
*
3725
0.30
0
Boultham
77
46
32
37
*
3504
1.06
0
Bracebridge
*
*
*
*
*
3159
0.25
0
Carholme
423
520
441
466
668
6309
7.39
10.59
Castle
72
100
90
88
*
4075
2.16
0
Glebe
*
*
*
13
*
3299
0.39
0
Hartsholme
*
*
*
*
*
3015
0.33
0
Minster
21
19
13
23
*
3754
0.61
0.21
Moorland
*
*
*
*
*
3443
0.26
0
Park
266
186
133
153
*
4412
3.47
0
Total
995
1,084
875
1,012
697
44,789
2.26
1.56
Sources: City of Lincoln Council, Council Tax 2010. *calculated using previous (1999) ward
boundaries which were revised in 2007; City of Lincoln Council, Council Tax 2010
* Figures 10 or below have been suppressed.
11
Planning Policy, City of Lincoln Council (2011) Student Dwellings information
Page 13
4. Reducing Poverty and Disadvantage
Poverty and disadvantage is a multifaceted issue that cuts across a number of
socioeconomic and quality of life indicators. The first section of this chapter
looks at the findings from the 2010 Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) which
highlights the areas of the city that are considered relatively deprived. Then
the issues of child poverty, economic wellbeing, safety, educational attainment
and health are explored.
4.1 Relative Deprivation
The IMD is a national dataset that ranks areas in the country in terms of
relative deprivation. These areas are known as Lower Super Output Areas
(LSOAs), of which there are 32,482 in England. Lincoln is made up of 57
LSOAs; with each ward in the city comprising of either 4, 5 or 6 of these
areas. It is useful to look at data at this spatial level as it helps highlight issues
closer to a neighbourhood level than ward analysis allows.
In the 2007 IMD, there were 5 LSOAs in Lincoln that were ranked within the
most 10% deprived areas in England. In the 2010 IMD, this number increased
to 7 LSOAs. Of these, 5 were ranked within the most 5% deprived, and one
was ranked within the most 1% deprived 12 .
Population estimates tell us that approximately 10,000 residents live in these
7 areas ranked within the most 10% deprived areas of the country.
Source: Department for Communities and Local Government (2011)
NB. Population numbers will not calculate to 89,700 as LSOA estimates are from mid-2009
estimates.
12
DCLG (2011) 2010 Indices of Multiple Deprivation
Page 14
In terms of the demographic make up of these 7 areas, it is interesting to note
the particular concentration of certain age groups in areas considered
relatively deprived.
The bold percentage figures below show high concentrations of either a young
or old population (relative to citywide proportions). It emphasises that the
geographic distribution of deprivation not only adversely impacts some
communities; it can also have a particular impact on specific personcharacteristics. In this case, we can see that deprivation in parts of Birchwood,
Glebe and Moorland will, due to the demographic make up of the areas,
particularly impact young people, and conversely, in Castle and Glebe it will
particularly impact people aged over 65.
LSOA amongst 10%
deprived England
Proportion of LSOA
aged under 16
Proportion of LSOA
aged over 65
LSOA 26
Abbey ward
14%
14%
LSOA 27
Birchwood ward
27%
12%
LSOA 29
Birchwood ward
34%
6%
LSOA 50
Castle ward
20%
22%
LSOA 52
Glebe ward
31%
8%
LSOA 57
Glebe ward
18%
22%
LSOA 73
Moorland ward
30%
12% 13
Lincoln
17.1%
14.1% 14
NB. Mid 2009 citywide estimates have been used to correlate with LSOA population data.
These proportions may therefore differ slightly from data shown in the chapter on
demographic information.
13
14
ONS (2011) Mid 2009 Population Estimates cited by LRO (2011)
ONS (2011) Mid 2009 Population Estimates Analysis Tool
Page 15
4.2 Our Economy
Child Poverty
Child poverty is defined as the proportion of children living in families in
receipt of out of work benefits or in receipt of tax credits where their reported
income is less than 60% of median income 15 . The proportion of children living
in poverty in Lincoln in 2009 (24.5%) was higher than the national, regional,
and county averages, and showed a marginal increase from the previous
year. When just taking into account under 16 year olds, the rate increased to
25.3%. Out of 326 authorities in England, Lincoln was in the top 25% of
authorities with the highest levels of child poverty. The London Borough of
Hillingdon had the same proportion of children living in poverty as Lincoln 16 .
The Proportion of Children in Poverty
30.0%
24.5%
24.0%
25.0%
20.9% 21.3%
Proportion
20.0%
18.4% 19.1%
15.9%
16.8%
2008
15.0%
2009
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
England
East Midlands
Lincolnshire
Area
Source: HMRC (2011)
15
16
HMRC (2010) Technical Information for NI 116
HMRC (2011) Child Poverty in 2009
Page 16
Lincoln
In terms of the spatial distribution of child poverty, it was highest in Glebe,
Moorland and Birchwood wards – areas of which were highlighted as
relatively deprived in the IMD 2010. This shows a similar picture to the 2008
results 17 .
The Proportion of Children in Poverty in 2009
40.0%
34.8%
35.0%
30.7%
29.0%
30.0%
27.4%
26.1%
24.3%
Proportion
34.4%
25.0%
Wards
16.5%
Lincoln
20.0%
15.7%
East Midlands
15.0%
10.3%
8.7%
10.0%
5.0%
Bi
Ward
Source: HM Revenue and Customs (2011)
17
HMRC (2011) Child Poverty in 2009
Page 17
Pa
rk
Ab
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Bo
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Br
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ac
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Ca ge
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ol
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Ca
st
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G
Ha leb
e
rts
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M
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nd
0.0%
NEETs
The proportion of 16-18 year olds not in education, employment or training
(NEETs) has historically been above the county rate. This trend has continued
into 2012. In January 2012, the Lincoln rate was 7.7%, higher than the overall
Lincolnshire rate of 4.1%. In numerical terms, this accounted for 241 16-18
year olds in the city.
Proportion of 16-18 Year Olds Not in Education, Employment or Training
9.0%
8.0%
Proportion
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
Lincoln
4.0%
Lincolnshire
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Ja
n12
De
c11
No
v11
Ju
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1
Au
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Se
p11
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ct
-1
1
Ap
r- 1
1
M
ay
-1
1
Ju
n11
Fe
b11
M
ar
-1
1
0.0%
Month - Year
Source: Children’s Services, Lincolnshire County Council (2011)
Below is a chart showing the wards in the city that had the highest NEET rates
in January 2012. In Park and Birchwood the NEET rate accounted for more
than 1 in 10 18 .
Wards with the Highest Proportion of 16-18 Year Olds Not in
Education, Employment or Training in January 2012
14.0%
12.2%
12.0%
10.1%
Proportion
10.0%
9.5%
8.5%
8.4%
8.0%
Ward
Lincoln
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Park
Birchwood
Minster
Glebe
Abbey
Ward
Source: Children’s Services, Lincolnshire County Council (2011)
18
Children’s Services, Lincolnshire County Council (2011) Proportion of 16-18 Year Olds
NEET in January 2012
Page 18
District Unemployment
In the previous drivers reports unemployment has been measured by
International Labour Organisation defined figures. A change in the supply of
data means that this drivers report focuses on the number of people claiming
Jobseeker’s Allowance, as a proportion of working age residents. This has
resulted in unemployment data in this report not being comparable with
previous drivers reports. For this reason, the data below covers a large time
period.
The unemployment claimant rate in Lincoln has remained consistently above
both the regional and national rates, and has generally followed the same
trend. In January 2012 the unemployment claimant rate in Lincoln was 5.3%,
compared to 3.9% across the East Midlands, and 4.0% across England 19 .
Number of JSA Claimants as a Proportion of Working Age Residents
6.0
Unemployment Claimant Rate
5.0
4.0
Lincoln
3.0
East Midlands
England
2.0
1.0
Ja
n0
Ap 8
r- 0
8
Ju
l-0
O 8
ct
-0
Ja 8
n0
Ap 9
r- 0
9
Ju
l-0
O 9
ct
-0
Ja 9
n1
Ap 0
r- 1
0
Ju
l-1
O 0
ct
-1
Ja 0
n1
Ap 1
r- 1
1
Ju
l-1
O 1
ct
-1
Ja 1
n12
0.0
Month - Year
Source: Office for National Statistics (2012)
19
ONS (2012) Unemployment Claimant Rate January 2012
Page 19
Ward Unemployment
The unemployment claimant rate differs across the city, with rates as high as
8.7% and 7.2% in Abbey and Park respectively, compared to rates as low as
3.0% and 3.1% in Bracebridge and Hartsholme respectively. Between
January 2011 and January 2012 the proportion of people claiming JSA rose in
each ward of the city, with the exception of Minster 20 .
Number of JSA Claimants as a Proportion of Working Age Residents
10.0
9.0
Unemployment Claimant Rate
8.0
7.0
Jan-11
6.0
Jan-12
Lincoln Jan-12
5.0
East Midlands Jan-12
4.0
England Jan-12
3.0
2.0
1.0
Pa
rk
oo
r la
nd
M
in
st
er
M
G
le
be
Ha
rts
ho
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e
Ca
st
le
e
ge
Ca
rh
ol
m
Br
ac
eb
r id
Bo
ul
th
am
rc
hw
oo
d
Bi
Ab
be
y
0.0
Ward
Source: Office for National Statistics (2012)
Disparity between wards with the highest and lowest number of claimants
When taking into account numbers of residents claiming JSA, once again
Abbey features as the worst performing ward with 508 claimants, compared to
only 155 in Bracebridge 21 .
20
21
ONS (2012) Unemployment Claimant Rate December 2012
ONS (2012) Unemployment Claimant Count December 2012
Page 20
Income
Latest income data shows a sharp drop in income for Lincoln residents,
reducing by 13.2% (£2,663 pa) from £20,156 in 2010, to £17,493 in 2011.
This runs contrary to marginal increases in income in both the East Midlands
and United Kingdom.
A note of caution should be provided with this data. The data comes from a
small sample of employee jobs. When broken down to a small geographic
area such as Lincoln, the robustness of the data declines. Additionally, it does
not include people who are self-employed. Due to the nature of this survey it
is usual to look at recent trends in order to see if the most recent data marries.
In this instance, it does not follow the historical pattern, or wider geographical
patterns of Lincolnshire, the East Midlands, or the United Kingdom 22 .
Annual Gross Pay by Residence
£25,000
Annual Gross Pay
£20,000
Lincoln
£15,000
Lincolnshire
United Kingdom
£10,000
East Midlands
£5,000
£0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Year
Source: Office for National Statistics (2011)
There are a number of potential reasons why the data could show a sudden
slump in average pay in Lincoln. As already noted, the data comes from a
small sample of the national population, and therefore loses confidence at a
low geographic area such as Lincoln.
Additionally, ONS estimates suggest a significant number of people in Lincoln
work in West Lindsey and North Kesteven. Therefore, the average workplace
salaries of external geographic areas can impact upon the earnings of Lincoln
residents. However, analysis of workplace salaries in Lincoln, West Lindsey
and North Kesteven shows no substantial decrease in salary.
One potential cause could be a shift from full time working residents to part
time working residents, whose annual salaries are likely to be lower as they
work less hours. Additionally, if there has been a shift from full time working
residents to self employed residents, data would not be included in the survey
results, and therefore data could be missing on some potential higher earners.
22
ONS (2011) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
Page 21
4.3 Our Safety
Crime
Over the last four years, there has
been a consistent drop in the
number of offences in Lincoln.
From
approximately
12,400
offences in Lincoln in 2007/08, to
approximately 10,300 offences in
2010/11, accounting for a decrease
of
about
16.6%.
Across
Lincolnshire there has also been a
decrease in the number of offences
during this period of approximately
12.0%.
Number of Offences in Lincoln
13,000
12,500
12,000
Number
11,500
11,000
10,500
10,000
9,500
9,000
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Year
Source: Safer Communities Team, Lincolnshire County Council (2011)
In Lincoln in 2010/11, the most common crime type was theft other (i.e. theft
from a person, theft from a dwelling, and anything else that doesn’t fall within
the other theft categories). This excluded offences such as theft of/from a
vehicle and theft of a cycle. In total, theft other accounted for 26.9% of all
crime in the city for that period. This offence was followed by violence against
the person and criminal damage which accounted for 18.7% and 18.6%
respectively 23 .
23
Safer Communities Team, Lincolnshire County Council (2011) CSP Crime Monthly
Page 22
Serious acquisitive crime is a group of offences that includes such things as
burglary, robbery and vehicle crime (e.g. theft from or of a vehicle). The
number of serious acquisitive crimes in the city increased from approximately
1,370 in 2007/08, to about 1,500 in 2010/11, accounting for an increase of
9.5%, with a numerical increase of approximately 130 (figures rounded).
However, it should be noted that early data for 2011/12 shows reductions in
serious acquisitive crime, in particular burglary (dwelling).
Number of Serious Acquisitive Crimes
Number of Serious Acquisitive Crimes in Lincoln
1550
Number
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Year
Source: Safer Communities Team, Lincolnshire County Council (2011)
In addition, from 2008/09 to 2010/11, the number of assaults leading to less
serious injury (a proxy measure for alcohol-related offences) has remained
relatively constant, with a small decrease of approximately 1% 24 .
Number of Assaults Leading to Less Serious Injury in Lincoln
810
808
806
Number
804
802
800
798
796
794
792
790
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Year
Source: Safer Communities Team, Lincolnshire County Council (2011)
24
Safer Communities Team, Lincolnshire County Council (2011) CSP Crime Monthly
Page 23
Antisocial Behaviour
In 2009, 432 requests were made to the City Council Antisocial Behaviour
Team. In 2010, this reduced by 29.9% to 303 requests. In 2011, it increased
by 35.3% to 410 requests. This shows the fluctuating nature of antisocial
behaviour complaints. However, a note of caution should be made that these
figures do not necessarily refer to incidents of antisocial behaviour, but could
be the result of numerous requests made regarding the same issues.
Additionally, reporting rates could be indicative of changes in public
awareness of the Antisocial Behaviour Team 25 .
Number of Requests Made to the City Council Antisocial
Behaviour Team
500
450
432
410
400
Number
350
303
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2009
2010
2011
Year
Source: Antisocial Behaviour Team, City of Lincoln Council (2012)
25
Antisocial Behaviour Team, City of Lincoln Council (2012) Requests Made to Antisocial
Behaviour Team
Page 24
4.4 Our Education
Key Stage 1
In 2010/11 the KS1 attainment rate in Lincoln was 75.5% and in Lincolnshire
was 79.6%, accounting for a difference of 4.1 percentage points. This was
greater than the gap in 2008/09 when Lincolnshire’s attainment was 3
percentage points above that of the city’s 26 .
Proportion of KS1 Pupils Achieving at least Level 2 in all four
subjects
82%
80%
Proportion
78%
76%
Lincoln
Lincolnshire
74%
72%
70%
68%
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Academic Year
Source: Lincolnshire Research Observatory (2011)
Attainment in Lincoln varied between areas, with lowest attainment in
Moorland, followed by Abbey then Glebe. In contrast, attainment was highest
in Boultham, followed by Bracebridge and Carholme.
Proportion of KS1 Pupils Achieving at least Level 2 in all four subjects in 2010/11
100.0%
87.3%
90.0%
80.0%
Proportion
70.0%
84.6%
84.6%
73.6%
80.4%
77.2%
76.3%
69.4%
67.7%
65.9%
72.8%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
Ward
Source: Lincolnshire Research Observatory (2011)
26
KS1 Attainment Results (2011) cited by LRO (2011)
Page 25
Pa
rk
oo
r la
nd
M
in
st
er
M
G
le
be
Ha
rts
ho
lm
e
Ca
st
le
ge
Ca
rh
ol
m
e
Br
ac
eb
rid
Bo
ul
th
am
rc
hw
oo
d
Bi
Ab
be
y
0.0%
Key Stage 2
Data is unavailable for 2009/10. Nevertheless, in 2010/11 Lincoln had an
attainment rate of 69%, compared to 75% across Lincolnshire, accounting for
a gap of 6 percentage points, compared to only a 4.8 percentage point gap in
2008/09 27 .
Proportion of KS2 Pupils Achieving Level 4 in English and
Maths
76%
Proportion
74%
72%
Lincoln
70%
Lincolnshire
68%
66%
64%
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Academic Year
Source: Lincolnshire Research Observatory (2011)
Reflecting KS1 results, attainment was lowest in Moorland then Abbey. In
addition to these areas, Birchwood also appeared as an area of low
attainment. Hartsholme had the highest attainment rate in the city, and
Bracebridge and Boultham once again had high attainment rates.
Proportion of KS2 Pupils Achieving at least Level 4 in English
and Maths
90.0%
77.1%
80.0%
Proportion
50.0%
76.8%
83.1%
65.4% 65.5%
70.0%
60.0%
81.8%
66.1%
61.5%
57.3%
50.9%
45.7%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
Ward
Source: Lincolnshire Research Observatory (2011)
27
KS2 Attainment Results (2011) cited by LRO (2011)
Page 26
Pa
rk
oo
r la
nd
M
in
st
er
M
G
le
be
Ha
rts
ho
lm
e
Ca
st
le
rc
hw
oo
d
Bo
ul
th
am
Br
ac
eb
r id
ge
Ca
rh
ol
m
e
Bi
Ab
be
y
0.0%
Key Stage 4
Despite Lincoln’s attainment of 53.6% remaining below the County rate of
59.7%, the gap appears to be reducing, with a 6.1 percentage point gap in
2010/11, compared to a 12 percentage point gap in 2008/09 28 .
Proportion of KS4 Pupils Achieving 5+ GCSEs A*-C including
English and Maths
70%
60%
Proportion
50%
40%
Lincoln
Lincolnshire
30%
20%
10%
0%
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Academic Year
Source: Lincolnshire Research Observatory (2011)
Attainment is once again lowest in Moorland. Minster and then Park also
feature as areas of low attainment. Carholme has the highest attainment in
the city, followed by Boultham and then Bracebridge.
Proportion of KS4 Pupils Achieving 5+ GCSEs A*-C including
English and Maths
80.0%
72.9%
70.0%
55.3%
Proportion
60.0%
50.0%
61.6% 61.1%
60.4%
49.3% 50.0%
47.8%
44.7% 43.9% 45.5%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
Ward
Source: Lincolnshire Research Observatory (2011)
28
KS4 Attainment Results (2011) cited by LRO (2011)
Page 27
Pa
rk
oo
r la
nd
M
in
st
er
M
G
le
be
Ha
rts
ho
lm
e
Ca
st
le
rc
hw
oo
d
Bo
ul
th
am
Br
ac
eb
rid
ge
Ca
rh
ol
m
e
Bi
Ab
be
y
0.0%
University Students
The University of Lincoln has helped the city develop as an area of good
quality higher education. In 2011/12 there were 10,367 undergraduate
students studying at the University of Lincoln (full time and part time). Of
these, the vast majority (9,933) studied at the Lincoln Brayford Pool campus in
the city centre, or the Lincoln Riseholme Park campus just north of the city
boundary. In addition, there were a further 1,355 postgraduate students (full
time and part time) studying at the University, of which 1,212 were studying at
the Lincoln Brayford Pool or Lincoln Riseholme Park campuses 29 .
The University makes a significant contribution to the city:
• The proportion of full time undergraduate students that graduated in
2009/10, and went on to employment or further study, was 92.6% 30 .
• In the 2010/11 academic year, 1,088 students studying at the Lincoln
Brayford Pool campus or the Lincoln Riseholme Park campus came
from Lincoln and close by*.
• Of the students that graduated in 2009/10, more than 300 found
employment in Lincoln or close by* 31 .
• In addition, the University is a significant employer in the city, providing
employment to 1,331 academic and support staff 32 .
*Students from
Lincoln and areas
close by have, for
this purpose, been
defined as students
registered in
postcode sectors that
cross the Lincoln
boundary. This area
is highlighted as
yellow on the map to
the left. The Lincoln
administrative
boundary is shown
by the black line.
Source: ONS (2012) cited by GIS Planning Policy, City of Lincoln Council (2012)
29
University of Lincoln (2011) Key Facts About the University of Lincoln
HEFCE Performance Indicator – Percentage 2009/10 Leavers cited by University of Lincoln
(2011) Student Data
31
University of Lincoln (2011) Student Data
32
University of Lincoln (2011) Key Facts About the University of Lincoln
30
Page 28
Adult Qualifications
Historically Lincoln has had low adult qualifications in comparison to the
region and country. In 2010 however we can see a different picture. At NVQ
levels 1, 2, 3 and 4 and above, qualifications for working age adults in Lincoln
were estimated to be higher than the region, and for NVQ levels 1, 2 and 3
and above, were estimated to be higher than the national rates 33 .
Proportion of Working Age Adults Education to NVQ 2 and
Above
Proportion of Working Age Adults Education to NVQ 1 and
Above
84.00%
80%
82.00%
70%
60%
Lincoln
78.00%
East Midlands
76.00%
Britain
Proportion
Proportion
80.00%
50%
Lincoln
40%
East Midlands
30%
Britain
74.00%
20%
72.00%
10%
0%
70.00%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2010
2005
2006
Proportion of Working Age Adults Education to NVQ 3 and
Above
2008
2009
2010
Proportion of Working Age Adults Education to NVQ 4 and
Above
60.00%
35.00%
50.00%
30.00%
25.00%
40.00%
Lincoln
30.00%
East Midlands
Britain
20.00%
Proportion
Proportion
2007
Year
Year
Lincoln
20.00%
East Midlands
15.00%
Britain
10.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
0.00%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2010
Source: ONS (2011)
33
2005
2006
2007
Year
Year
ONS (2011) Annual Population Survey: Qualifications
Page 29
2008
2009
2010
4.5 Our Health
Female Life Expectancy
In 2004/06 female life expectancy in Lincoln from
birth was 80.0 years, 1.5 years below the
England and Wales average. In 2007/09 female
life expectancy within the city increased to 81.1
years, 1.1 years behind the England and Wales
average, showing that, although Lincoln still lags
behind the national average, the gap in female
life expectancy is decreasing.
Female Life Expectancy
82.5
82
81.5
Years
81
Lincoln
80.5
East Midlands
England and Wales
80
79.5
79
78.5
2004-06
2005-07
2006-08
2007-09
Period
Source: Lincolnshire Research Observatory (2011)
Male Life Expectancy
In 2004/06 male life expectancy in the city was 76.3 years from birth, 0.9
years below the England and Wales average. Despite increasing to 77.0
years in 2007/09, the gap between Lincoln and the rest of the country
widened to 1.1 years 34 .
Male Life Expectancy
78.5
78
77.5
Lincoln
77
East Midlands
76.5
England and Wales
76
75.5
75
2004- 06
2005- 07
2006- 08
2007- 09
P e r i od
Source: Lincolnshire Research Observatory (2011)
34
LRO (2011) Life Expectancy datasets
Page 30
Ward Level Life Expectancy
When we look at life expectancy at ward level we can see it varies
substantially. The gap between the highest female life expectancy (83.4 years
in Minster) and the lowest (76.1 years in Park) is 7.3 years. For males, the
gap between the highest (79.2 years in Bracebridge) and the lowest (73.4
years in Park) is 5.8 years.
The difference between males and females is greatest in Abbey and Minster,
where females are, on average, estimated to live approximately 6 years
longer than males. In contrast, females in Birchwood and Park are estimated
to live, on average, approximately 2 ½ years longer than males 35 .
Life Expectancy in Lincoln in 2005-09
86.0
84.0
82.0
Years
80.0
78.0
Female Life Expectancy
76.0
Male Life Expectancy
74.0
72.0
70.0
Bi
Ab
be
y
rc
hw
o
Bo o d
ul
th
Br
am
ac
eb
r id
Ca ge
rh
ol
m
e
Ca
st
le
G
Ha leb e
rts
ho
lm
e
M
in
st
er
M
oo
r la
nd
Pa
rk
68.0
Ward
Source: East Midlands Public Health Observatory (2011)
NB. Ward life expectancy is for 2005/09, whereas district and above is for 2007/09. These
datasets are therefore not directly comparable.
35
East Midlands Health Observatory (2011) Ward Life Expectancy
Page 31
Additional Health Indicators
Early Deaths: Heart Disease and Stroke Per 100,000 People under
75
Rate Per 100,000 Population
120
102.1
100
89.6
79.1
80
74.8
82.5
70.5
Lincoln
60
England
40
Lincoln’s premature mortality rate
for heart disease and stroke
remains above the national rate.
Despite this, the gap has
decreased from 29.1% above the
national rate in 2005/07, to 17%
above in 2007/09.
20
0
2005/07
2006/08
2007/09
Year
Early Deaths: Cancer Per 100,000 People under 75
Premature mortality for cancer in
Lincoln has been consistently higher
than the national average; however,
this gap is also reducing, from 16.8%
above the national average in
2005/07, to 15.1% above in 2007/09.
Rate Per 100,000 Population
160
140
120
134.9
129
135
115.5
112.1
114
100
Lincoln
80
England
60
40
20
0
2005/07
2006/08
2007/09
Year
Hospital Stays for Alcohol Related Harm per 100,000 People
Per 100,000 Population
2500
2000
1500
Lincoln
England average
1000
500
0
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
The rate of hospital stays for
alcohol related harm in Lincoln
also remained consistently above
the national rate; nevertheless,
the trend is showing a declining
gap, with Lincoln’s rate 14%
above the national rate in
2007/08, and 12.3% above in
2009/10.
Year
Self-Harm per 100,000 People 2009/10
36 37
36
37
600
500
Per 100,000 Population
The rate of hospital stays for self-harm
per 100,000 people in Lincoln is over
double that of the England average rate,
and only 8.5% below the worst rate in
England. This includes repeat hospital
stays. Data suggests the location of a
Prison in Lincoln may have a small
impact upon the statistics; additionally
Lincoln’s young population may also
impact on Lincoln’s relatively high rate.
497.5
455.1
400
300
198.3
200
100
48
0
Lincoln
England average
England worst
Area
Source: Data in all 4 graphs are from NHS Health Profiles (2011)
Department of Health (2011) 2011 NHS Health Profile for Lincoln
East Midlands Public Health Observatory (2011) Self-Harm contextual data
Page 32
England best
Physical activity
The annual TNS School Sport Survey, conducted on behalf of the Department
for Education (formerly the Department for Children, Schools and Families),
provides us with an indication of the provision of PE and school sport in state
schools. The results show us that Lincoln’s performance has improved over
the last 2 consecutive years, and performance remains above the national
average 38 .
Proportion of Year 1-13 Pupils Spending 3+ Hours per Week on
High Quality PE and School Sport
60.0%
57.8%
58.0%
56.0%
55.1%
Proportion
56.0%
54.0%
2008-09
52.0%
2009-10
49.6%
50.0%
48.0%
46.0%
44.0%
Lincoln
England average
Area
Source: NHS Health Profiles (2011)
Sport England conduct telephone surveys each year to record from a sample
of the population how many people are participating in recommended levels of
physical activity, equivalent to 30 minutes exercise on 5 or more days per
week. For this indicator, the proportion of adults engaged in this type of
exercise appears to have reduced, although this still remains above the
national average (by a marginal amount). It is noted in a caveat to this
indicator that the results have not been weighted by age, and it is likely a
greater proportion of younger people undertake levels of physical activity at
the recommended levels than older people. If this is the case, and a lower
proportion of younger people responded to the survey than would be
representative of Lincoln’s relatively young population, then the results may
not be entirely reflective of the city’s actual rate of adult physical activity.
Estimated Proportion of Adult Population Participating in
Recommended Levels of Physical Activity
11.9%
11.8%
11.8%
11.7%
11.6%
Proportion
11.6%
11.5%
11.5%
2008-09
11.4%
2009-10
11.3%
11.2%
11.2%
11.1%
11.0%
10.9%
Lincoln
England average
Area
Source: NHS Health Profiles (2011)
38
Department of Health (2010) 2010 NHS Health Profile for Lincoln; Department of Health
(2011) 2011 NHS Health Profile for Lincoln
Page 33
Mental Health
Data on three key disability related benefit types gives us an indication as to
the extent of mental health issues in the city:
•
•
•
Employment and Support Allowance
o 1,160 claims in Lincoln, of which 470 are due to mental and
behavioural disorders
Incapacity Benefit and Severe Disablement Allowance
o 3,400 claims in Lincoln, of which 1,640 are due to mental and
behavioural disorders
Disability Living Allowance
o 5,430 claims in Lincoln, of which 960 are due to learning difficulties
The breakdown of this information shows the reasons behind people claiming
disability related benefits in Lincoln. It shows that the most common reason for
claiming both Employment and Support Allowance (approximately 2/5th), and
Incapacity Benefit / Severe Disablement Allowance (approximately 1/2nd), was
for mental and behavioural disorders. In addition, the most common reason
for claiming Disability Living Allowance in Lincoln was for people with learning
difficulties 39 .
Most Common Conditions for Incapacity Benefit / Severe Disablement
Allowance in May 2011 in Lincoln
Most Common Conditions for Employment and Support
Allowance in May 2011 in Lincoln
60.0%
40.5%
Proportion of Total Claimants
Proportion of Total Claimants
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
14.7%
15.0%
14.7%
9.5%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Mental and
behavioural disorders
Diseases of the
musculoskeletal
system and
connective tissue
Symptoms, signs
Injury, poisoning and
and abnormal clinical
certain other
and laboratory
consequences of
findings, not
external causes
elsewhere classified
48.2%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
Proportion of Total Claimants
17.7%
15.3%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
8.3%
10.0%
8.0%
5.7%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Learning Difficulties
Arthritis
Psychosis
Disease of the
Muscles, Bones or
Joints
Conditions
Source: ONS (2011) DWP Benefits Data
39
Mental and behavioural
disorders
Diseases of the
musculoskeletal system and
connective tissue
Symptoms, signs and
abnormal clinical and
laboratory findings, not
elsew here classified
Condition
Most Common Conditions for Disability Living Allowance in
May 2011 in Lincoln
18.0%
12.4%
7.4%
0.0%
Condition
20.0%
14.7%
10.0%
ONS (2011) DWP Benefits Data
Page 34
Diseases of the nervous
system
5. Our Carbon Footprint, Environment and Heritage
5.1 Emissions across Lincoln
Comparatively, Lincoln has low estimated carbon emissions per capita as the
chart below shows. Lincoln has 5.2 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per
capita, compared to Lincolnshire which has 6.8 and the East Midlands which
has 7.7. Total CO² emissions in Lincoln have reduced by 17.4% since 2005.
This is higher than countywide reductions of 11.7%, and regional reductions of
14.8% over the same period.
Tonnes of C02 Emissions Per Capita
10.0
9.3
9.2
8.9
9.0
7.9
Tonnes Per Capita
8.0
7.0
7.9
8.6
7.6
7.4
7.7
6.8
6.2
6.3
6.1
6.0
5.9
Lincoln
5.2
5.0
Lincolnshire
4.0
East Midlands
3.0
2.0
1.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Year
Source: Department of Energy and Climate Change (2011)
The graph below show’s industry and commercial, as well as domestic CO²
usage is proportionately more prominent in Lincoln than countywide and
regionally. Alternatively, road transport accounts for more CO² emissions
across Lincolnshire and the East Midlands as a proportion of their totals. This
is most likely due to the nature of the roads and estimated vehicle types
travelling on them. For example, there are no motorways in Lincoln which
could increase an area’s CO² estimates 40 .
Percentage Breakdown of Reasons for C0² Emissions in 2009
(Each Area = 100% )
60.0%
Proportion
50.0%
40.0%
Industry and Commercial
Domestic
30.0%
Road Transport
LULUCF
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Lincoln
Lincolnshire
East Midlands
Area
Source: Department of Energy and Climate Change (2011)
*LULUCF = Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry.
40
DECC (2011) Summary Local CO2 emission estimates
Page 35
5.2 City Council Emissions
In 2008/09 the City Council CO² equivalent emissions estimate was 2,502
tonnes. In 2010/11 this had reduced by 17.6% to 2,062 tonnes. This reduction
is as a result of projects carried out across the City Council, which have
contributed to reducing our energy usage.
The figures include not only services provided directly by the City Council, but
also services that have been contracted out to external providers, such as
Cory and Active Nation.
Total Tonnes of CO² Equivalent Emissions of the City Council
3000
Tonnes of CO²e
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Year
Source: City of Lincoln Council (2011)
As part of the City Council’s commitment to the environment, electricity used
by the City Council comes from a Green Tariff (this does not necessarily
include electricity used by contractors). In 2008/09 renewable energy from a
Green Tariff accounted for 50.2% of total City Council CO² equivalent
emissions. In 2010/11 this had increased to 52.2% of total emissions 41 .
41
Environmental Sustainability, City of Lincoln Council (2011) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Report
Page 36
5.3 Brownfield Land
The maps below show National Land Use Database mapped sites in Lincoln
that are identified as brownfield land. The area of brownfield land reported for
the whole of Lincoln in 2002 was 154.2 hectares, and in 2011 was 77.2
hectares. Whilst some of this may be attributable to changes in the definition
of what is included as “brownfield land” over this time, the figures are still
indicative of an overall reducing trend, due to development of brownfield land
in the city 42 .
Brownfield Sites in 2002
Brownfield Sites in 2011
Source: Planning Policy, City of Lincoln Council (2012)
42
Planning Policy, City of Lincoln Council (2012) Brownfield Sites
Page 37
5.4 Natural Environment
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ƒ
ƒ
Lincoln covers 3,569 hectares (36 square kilometres), amounting to only
0.6% of the total county land coverage 43 .
Local wildlife sites make up 592 hectares of the city, contributing to 16.6%
of total land coverage, with 47 sites in total.
There are 112 hectares of site of special scientific interest in the city, and 7
hectares of regionally important geological sites.
Lincolnshire Wildlife Trust Nature Reserves also make up 32 hectares of
the city.
Of the eligible open space in Lincoln, about 53 hectares is managed to
Green Flag Award standard 44 .
There are 92 hectares of public and private parks and gardens (15 areas).
This includes the complete extents of The Lawn and Castle grounds 45 .
5.5 Heritage
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ƒ
ƒ
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The Academy of Urbanism awarded Steep Hill in Lincoln the Great
Street 2012 award 46 .
Towards the end of the first
century AD, Lincoln became
one of a handful of coloniae in
England, including Colchester
and Gloucester. Colonia was
the highest status a Roman
settlement could attain 47 .
Lincoln is now recognised
internationally for its important
archaeology from the Roman
Period 48 .
There are 418 Listed Buildings
in the city ranging from the
Roman Period through to the
1950s, and 12 buildings on the
City Council’s Local Buildings at
Risk Register 49 .
43
LRO (2011) 2010 Mid Year Estimates Population – Quick reference sheet
City of Lincoln Council (2010) State of the City Report 2010
45
City of Lincoln Council (2006) Open Space Audit Report
46
The Academy of Urbanism (2012) Awards
47
City of Lincoln Council (2011) Heritage Connect
48
Central Lincolnshire Joint Strategic Planning Committee (2010) Central Lincolnshire Cores
Strategy: Issues and Options 2010
49
Culture and Heritage, City of Lincoln Council (2011) Culture and Heritage data
44
Page 38
6. Our City’s Housing and the City Council’s Landlord
Function
6.1 House Prices and Affordability
House prices have risen significantly since 1996, although house prices in
Lincoln have remained consistently below the national, regional and
countywide averages. From 1996 to 2007, house prices in Lincoln consistently
rose year on year to a high of £124,950. However, in 2008 house prices fell in
Lincoln, mirroring a fall in prices across the county, region and country.
In 2010, house prices once again picked up in England, the East Midlands
and Lincolnshire. In contrast, the average house price in Lincoln continued to
fall. To put this in context, in 2010, the average house price in the East
Midlands was £139,500, 3.3% higher than 2009 prices, but still 3.8% lower
than 2007 house prices (prior to the slump). In contrast, the average Lincoln
house price in 2010 was £117,000, 1.7% below 2009 prices, and 6.4% below
2007 prices 50 .
Median House Price Land Registry Data 1996-2010
£200,000
£180,000
Median House Price
£160,000
£140,000
England
£120,000
East Midlands
£100,000
Lincolnshire
£80,000
Lincoln
£60,000
£40,000
£20,000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
£0
Year
Source: Department for Communities and Local Government (2011)
50
DCLG (2011) Table 586 Housing market: median house prices based on Land Registry
data, by district, from 1996
Page 39
Housing Affordability
One of the consequences of a drop in house prices, and average earnings
that do not follow the same trend is that houses are shown to be, on average,
more affordable. The house price to earnings ratio has shown house prices
becoming more affordable year on year in Lincoln since 2007, with an
average house price to earnings ratio of 4.6 in 2010, making house prices
more affordable in regard to average earnings than in Lincolnshire (6.1), the
East Midlands (5.6) and England (7.0) 51 .
Official house price data for Lincoln in 2011 has not yet been released.
However, as already noted in the income section of this report, ONS data
suggests income levels in the city may have seen a significant drop in 2011. If
house prices have not also seen a similar fall in 2011, then housing
affordability in the city may become an increasing issue.
Ratio of Median House Price to Median Earnings
(Low is More Affordable)
House Price to Earnings Ratio
8.00
7.00
6.00
England
5.00
East Midlands
4.00
Lincolnshire
3.00
Lincoln
2.00
1.00
0.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
Source: Department for Communities and Local Government (2011)
51
DCLG (2011) Table 577 Housing market: ratio of median house price to median earnings
by district from 1997
Page 40
Mortgage and Landlord Possession Orders
Following a peak in 2008, when there were 215 mortgage possession orders
made in Lincoln, the number has steadily decreased by a total of 48.8% to
110* in 2011. The number of landlord possession orders also rose to 285 in
2008, although this did not reach previous highs of more than 300 from 2003
to 2005. Since 2008, the number of landlord possession orders has
decreased by 31.6% to 195.
Number of Mortgage and Landlord Possession Orders in Lincoln
400
350
300
Number
250
Mortgage
Possession
Orders
200
150
Landlord
Possession
Orders
100
50
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011*
Year
Source: Ministry of Justice (2012)
Despite a reducing trend, the chart below shows that the rate of mortgage and
landlord possession orders in the city in 2011* were both above national,
regional and countywide rates 52 .
Number of Possession Orders in Lincoln per 1,000 Households in 2011*
6.0
5.1
Rate per 1,000 Households
5.0
4.3
4.0
3.0
3.6
England
2.9
2.9
2.4
2.5
2.5
East Midlands
Lincolnshire
Lincoln
2.0
1.0
0.0
Annual Landlord Possession Orders
Annual Mortgage Possession Orders
Possession Order
Source: Ministry of Justice (2012)
NB. The 2011 Quarter 4 figures are liable to revision to take account of any late amendments.
This may have an impact on year total 2011 figures.
52
Ministry of Justice (2012) Statistics on mortgage and landlord possession actions in the
county courts of England and Wales, 2000 to 2011 Quarter 4
Page 41
6.2 Affordable Homes
Recently Built Affordable Homes
From 2008/09 to 2010/11 325 affordable homes were built in Lincoln, with the
vast majority being built in 2009/10 and 2010/11 53 .
Number of Affordable Homes Built
350
300
Number
250
200
2010-11
150
2009-10
2008-09
100
50
0
1
Affordable Homes
Source: City of Lincoln Council (2011)
Stock of Affordable Homes
Lincoln is home to an estimated 44,800 (rounded) residential addresses. Of
these, more than 9,000 are classed as affordable homes. Of these affordable
homes, the majority (approximately 7,900) are owned and rented by the
Council. However, the important role Registered Social Landlords play in the
supply of affordable housing in Lincoln should also be noted, with these
landlords accounting for approximately 1,700 homes 54 .
NB. All figures rounded to nearest hundred.
The Split in Ownership of Affordable Homes
9000
8000
7000
Number
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Council
Reigstered Social Landlord
Owner
Source: City of Lincoln Council (2011)
53
Housing Strategy, City of Lincoln Council (2011) Number of Affordable Homes Built in
Lincoln
54
Housing Strategy, City of Lincoln Council (2011) September 2011 Affordable Homes data
Page 42
6.3 Waiting List and Lettings
Waiting List by Type
An important part of the landlord function is ensuring a range of homes of
different sizes are available to provide for the housing needs of a range of
household types. This must be particularly taken into account when planning
the provision of additional affordable housing in the city.
Waiting List by Household Type (January 2012)
45%
42%
38%
40%
35%
Proportion
30%
25%
20%
15%
11%
10%
6%
3%
5%
0%
Adult groups
Couples
Families
Single
Single with access
Household Type
Source: City of Lincoln Council (2012)
In total there were 3,030 households on the City Council housing waiting list in
January 2012. The most common household type was families, followed by
single households, accounting for 42% and 38% respectively 55 .
55
Housing Strategy, City of Lincoln Council (2012) Housing Market Report July 2011
Page 43
Number of Lettings by Property Type
In quarter 3 of 2011/12 there were 256 lettings. The majority of these (57%)
were flats, followed by houses (33%). This is not just reflective of demand, but
also of turnover 56 .
Lettings by Property Type (Quarter 3 2011/12)
60%
57%
50%
Proportion
40%
33%
30%
20%
6%
10%
4%
0%
House
Bungalow
Flat
Maisonette
Property Type
Source: City of Lincoln Council (2012)
Average Weekly Rents
Average Weekly Rents
£70.00
£67.58
Average Weekly Rent
£68.00
£66.00
£64.00
£62.00
£60.00
£59.43
£58.00
£56.00
£54.00
Local Authority (2011/12*)
Registered Social Landlord (2011)
Organisation Type (Year)
Source: Department for Communities and Local Government (2011)
The average weekly rent for a Local Authority property in Lincoln is £59.43* 57 ,
compared to £67.58 for a property rented from a Registered Social
Landlord 58 .
NB. 2011/12 Local Authority figure is provisional and may be subject to revision.
56
Housing Strategy, City of Lincoln Council (2011) Housing Market Report July 2011
DCLG (2011) Table 702
58
DCLG (2011) Table 704
57
Page 44
Council Tenants in receipt of Housing Benefit
At the end of 2009/10 there were 7,858 council tenants, of whom over half
were claiming full housing benefit. By the end of 2010/11 this proportion had
increased slightly to 56.6% of 7,830 59 council tenants. In addition, the
proportion of tenants claiming part housing benefit increased to 22.5%. These
increases resulted in the proportion claiming no housing benefit decreasing to
20.9% 60 .
Council Tenants by Housing Benefit Claims
60.0%
52.5%
56.6%
50.0%
Proportion
40.0%
36.1%
2009/10
30.0%
22.5%
2010/11
20.9%
20.0%
11.4%
10.0%
0.0%
Full Housing Benefit
Part Housing Benefit
No Housing Benefit
Housing Benefit
Source: City of Lincoln Council (2011)
59
Housing Systems, City of Lincoln Council (2011) Total number of Council Tenants
Housing Benefits, City of Lincoln Council (2011) Number of Council Tenants in receipt of
Housing Benefit
60
Page 45
7. Conclusion
Lincoln is a city of 89,700 and growing. Unlike the rest of the county, it is
characterised by a young population, partly as a result of large educational
institutions such as the University of Lincoln. Migrant workers have also
impacted upon the demographic makeup of the city, with over one thousand
National Insurance registrations by overseas nationals in 2010/11. Many of
those registrations came from people from European Union Accession States.
The 2010 Indices of Multiple Deprivation provides us with an indication of how
relative deprivation is distributed across the city. The Indices highlight areas
within Abbey, Birchwood, Castle, Glebe and Moorland wards. Many of these
areas have particularly high levels of young residents aged under 16.
Like many parts of the country, Lincoln is facing some specific issues in
regard to the economy. There is a higher than average rate of child poverty in
Lincoln, with particularly high rates in Glebe, Moorland and Birchwood wards
– areas of which were highlighted as relatively deprived in the 2010 Indices of
Multiple Deprivation.
The proportion of 16-18 year olds not in education, employment or training
has remained consistently higher than the countywide rate, with Park ward in
particular showing high levels of young 16-18 year olds out of employment,
education or training. Unemployment more generally is an issue affecting
many in Lincoln, which has seen a continued higher unemployment claimant
rate than experienced across the East Midlands or England as a whole. The
unemployment claimant rate is highest in the east of the city, particularly in
Abbey, as well as areas such as Park, Castle, Glebe and Moorland. In
addition to unemployment, there are indications that those in work may have
seen a drop in average pay across the city, however, a note of caution should
be made regarding the small sample size of the survey this data comes from.
Crime in the city has decreased, showing a healthy trend over the last few
years. When we look at crime type, we can see that serious acquisitive crime
(e.g. crime that results in material gain) increased in 2010/11, although early
2011/12 data shows reductions, particularly in regard to burglary (dwelling).
The City Council’s Antisocial Behaviour Team has received a fluctuating
number of requests over the last 3 years. However, the number of requests
made to the team is not always indicative of the amount of antisocial
behaviour, as several requests regarding the same incident could be made.
Additionally, changes in the number of requests made could be impacted by
public awareness of the Antisocial Behaviour Team.
Educational attainment has increased in Lincoln at all three key stages.
Nevertheless, the gap between Lincoln and Lincolnshire has increased at
both Key Stages 1 and 2. Lowest attainment can be seen in areas of the
south of the city, particularly Moorland ward which has comparatively low
attainment at all three key stages. In addition, evidence also exists of low
attainment in the north east of the city, particularly in Abbey ward which
features as an area of comparatively low attainment at both Key Stages 1 and
Page 46
2. The University continues to have a positive impact on the city, with many
graduates gaining employment in Lincoln and the areas close by. In addition,
estimated adult attainment for 2010 shows higher rates of working age people
educated to NVQ levels 1, 2, 3 and 4+ than the region.
Although life expectancy in the city remains below the regional and national
averages for both males and females, life expectancy for Lincoln residents is
increasing. The gap between female life expectancy in Lincoln and England
and Wales has shown signs of decreasing in recent years; however the gap in
male life expectancy has increased. Female life expectancy is highest in
Minster and lowest in Park, whereas for males it is highest in Bracebridge and
lowest in Park. Although the gaps between Lincoln and England for premature
mortality rates due to heart disease and stroke, as well as cancer are
reducing, these remain above the national rates.
Benefits data shows us a common reason for people claiming disability
related benefits in Lincoln is due to mental health and behavioural disorders
as well as learning difficulties, showing a prominence of mental health issues
in Lincoln.
The small size of Lincoln means it is perhaps likely to have less carbon
emissions than other larger areas of the county, and comparatively low CO²
estimates are certainly reflected in the 2009 data. Contributing to this is the
proportionately low emissions we have due to road transport. This is perhaps
not surprising considering Lincoln’s road network covers approximately 280
kilometres, compared to the county road network which covers a much larger
9,000 kilometres. Over the last three years, the City Council has seen a year
on year reduction in CO² equivalent emissions, and in 2010/11 renewable
energy from a Green Tariff accounted for more than half of total emissions.
Being a compact city of only 36 square kilometres, making use of all available
land in Lincoln is an important part of helping Lincoln develop in a sustainable
way. In 2002 there was more than 150 hectares of brownfield land in Lincoln.
However, largely thanks to development (although there have been some
changes to the definition of what is included as brownfield land), the amount
of brownfield land in the city has reduced by approximately half.
Despite the increase in house prices seen across the county, region and
country in 2010, house prices in Lincoln continued to fall. This helped Lincoln
maintain its favourable affordability ratio, which shows average houses in
Lincoln to be consistently more affordable in comparison to average resident
earnings. However, with latest pay data suggesting a fall in peoples’ incomes,
affordability may become an increasing issue in the future. Information on the
Council’s waiting list also shows there remains substantial demand for
affordable housing of various types.
On a positive note, despite the rate of mortgage and landlord possession
orders remaining higher in Lincoln than the countywide, regional and national
rates, the number of orders made in the city has seen a reduction in recent
years.
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