Energy Sources, 26:1157–1164, 2004
Copyright © Taylor & Francis Inc.
ISSN: 0090-8312 print/1521-0510 online
DOI: 10.1080/00908310490441520
Electric Energy Demand of Turkey
for the Year 2050
DR. ZEHRA YUMURTACI
Department of Mechanical Engineering
Yildiz Technical University
Istanbul, Turkey
ERCAN ASMAZ
Department of Mechanical Engineering
Istanbul Technical University
Istanbul, Turkey
Hydro electrical energy is the most important renewable energy resource in Turkey.
Both environmental suitability and low unit energy cost are the principal reasons of
its frequent use for energy production in the world, as well as in Turkey. According to
the statement of DSI (State Hydraulic Works) and EIEI (Electrical Power Resources
Survey and Development Administration) for the year 2002, Turkey will develop its
whole hydro energy potential until the year 2050. In this study, the energy use projection of Turkey for the period of 1980–2050 is calculated based on the population
increase and energy consumption increase rates per capita. The study also includes
the evaluation of energy requirement in the year 2050 in the case of whole hydro
energy potential usage.
Keywords energy consumption per capita, energy demand, hydro electrical energy,
thermal energy
Hydroelectric power stations provide about 40% of electricity production in Turkey,
presently, and have a history of about 100 years. The first electricity production in the
country started in Tarsus in 1902 with a hydroelectric power station of 60 kW power.
In 1923, the total installed power of 38 electrical power stations was 33 MW and
their energy production potential was approximately 45 million kWh per year. Of this
total, only 0.1 MW was produced by hydroelectric power stations. The population of
Turkey was about 14 million and electricity consumption per capita was 3.3 kWh per year.
In 1953, while the total installed power reached 500 MW, the hydroelectric power
made only 6% in this amount, i.e., 30 MW. Between 1953 and 1963, the capacity of
hydro electrical power reached 478 MW, and with the newly established power stations,
the hydro electrical power capacity showed an increase of about 16 times in 10 years. In
1963, the share of the hydroelectric power in the total installed power reached 35% with
Received 11 April 2003; accepted 21 May 2003.
Address correspondence Dr. Zehra Yumurtaci, Yildiz Technical University, Department of
Mechanical Engineering, 80750, Besiktas, Istanbul, Turkey. E-mail: [email protected]
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1381 MW. In the following years, the amount of electrical consumption per capita has
continuously increased and reached 1417 kWh per capita per year in 1999 (DSI, 1999).
This study consists of 4 main parts:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Hydro electrical potential of Turkey today.
The projection of electric energy demand for the future years.
The projection of hydraulic and thermal energy production for the future years.
The evaluation of the projected values.
Hydro Electrical Potential of Turkey Today
The historical installed power and production trends by thermal and hydraulic source in
Turkey between 1970 and 1997 are shown in Figures 1 and 2. We can see that during
this period, the total installed power showed an increase of about 10 times and the total
electric energy production showed an increase of about 12 times (TEAS, 2002).
In the determination of hydroelectric energy potential, gross potential, technical potential and economical potential are the important conceptions. Briefly, the gross potential
shows the hydroelectric energy production upper limit of a river basin, a potential that
is made up by the existing height and average flow rate. Gross hydroelectric energy potential of Turkey, which is a function of topography and hydrology, is about 433 billion
kWh. Technical potential shows the upper limit of the hydroelectric energy production
of a river basin. Excluding the inevitable losses, this represents the hydroelectric energy
production limit that is technically feasible. Technical hydroelectric energy potential in
Turkey is estimated as 216 billion kWh. Economical hydroelectric potential is the total
hydroelectric energy from a river basin that can be technically developed and is economically coherent. In other words, the economical hydroelectric energy potential shows the
hydraulic resources with economical feasibility. Economical hydroelectric energy potential of Turkey is about 125 billion kWh. We would like to note that Turkey’s share of
Figure 1. The development of installed power in Turkey by years (TEAS, 2002).
Electric Energy Demand for 2050
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Figure 2. The development of production in Turkey by years (TEAS, 2002).
the world gross hydroelectric energy potential is about 1% and its economical potential
makes 15% of the European economical hydroelectric energy potential (DSI, 1999).
Important river basins that have a hydraulic production potential above 5 TWh
are Euphrates (38.1 TWh), Tigris (16.8 TWh), East Black Sea (11.4 TWh), Chorokhi
(10.5 TWh), Seyhan (7.3 TWh), Kizilirmak (6.8 TWh), Yesilirmak (5.6 TWh), East
Mediterranean Sea (5.3 TWh) and Antalya (5.2 TWh) (EIEI, 2002).
We see in Figures 3 and 4 that the total number of hydroelectric power stations by
the beginning of year 2002 is 287, the total installed power is 11,643 MW, and the total
average yearly production is 42,216 GWh (TEAS, 2002). These power stations are active
presently and have been built by DSI (State Hydraulic Works) and private companies
since year 1951.
This year, 88 hydroelectric power stations are being built in several places of Turkey.
Figure 5 shows that the total installed power of these power stations is 3075 MW and the
total estimated yearly production is 9933 GWh (DSI, 1999). In Figures 6 and 7, we can
see the total hydraulic energy production and power potential of Turkey by the situation
of projects. According to these figures, Turkey has a total potential of 551 hydroelectric
power stations, which have a production capacity of 125,828 GWh and a power of
35,483 MW. Also, these figures show that Turkey is using 35% of its total hydraulic
energy production capacity and 24% of its total hydraulic power capacity (TEAS, 2002).
Estimate of Electric Energy Demand in 2050
In this study, the calculation of how much of the required energy for the year 2050
can be produced by hydraulic and thermal power stations is made. Projected values are
calculated with a statistical technique based on the data from the past years until today.
These values are the population of the country and the amount of energy consumption
per capita. The past and estimated future values of population and energy consumption
are all shown in one figure (Figure 8). In this figure, the primary Y axis is used for the
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Figure 3. The hydroelectric power stations that are active and built by DSI by the beginning of
year 2002 (DSI, 1999).
Figure 4. The hydroelectric power stations that are active and built by private companies by the
beginning of year 2002 (DSI, 1999).
energy consumption values and the secondary Y axis is used for both the population and
the total energy consumption values. The technique that is used for the projected values
is explained below.
First of all, the population values from the year 1980 till 2002 are plotted in a chart
(DIE, 2002). Then, adding a linear trend line to this chart, the population increase equation of the past years is found. So by making necessary calculations, all of the annual
population changes between the years 1980–2050 are determined with this equation. Ac-
Electric Energy Demand for 2050
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Figure 5. The hydroelectric power station projects that are being built by DSI and private companies in 2002 (DSI, 1999).
Figure 6. Total hydraulic energy production potential of Turkey by the situation of projects (TEAS,
2002).
cording to these calculated values, the population of Turkey in the year 2050 is estimated
to be about 115 million (Figure 8).
The estimate of the amount of energy consumption per capita values for the next
years is calculated with a similar method (Evaluation and Statistics of Energy Demand
Directorate, 2002). But this time, while finding the increase rate equation, a polynomial
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Figure 7. Total hydraulic power potential of Turkey by the situation of projects (TEAS, 2002).
Figure 8. Annual change of electric energy consumption in Turkey for the period of 1980–2050.
trend line is added to the chart instead of a linear trend line. It is calculated that the
amount of energy consumption per capita will be 10,197 kWh in the year 2050 by using
this second degree equation (Figure 8). This value is a normal value compared with
developed countries.
The multiplication of population value and the consumption per capita gives the
necessary energy amount. According to our calculations for the year 2050, if an individual
uses energy of 10,197 kWh in a year, then 115 million individuals will need an electric
energy of 1,173 billion kWh (Figure 8).
After finding out the electric energy demand of Turkey for the year 2050, the estimated yearly electric energy produced by the thermal power stations is calculated for the
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Figure 9. Annual change of thermal production in Turkey for the period of 1980–2050.
same year. Again, using the same method, the values between the years 1970–2000 are
plotted in a line chart and the equation of the thermal production increase rate is found
by adding a polynomial trend line to this chart (DSI, 1999).
Using this equation, the estimated values of thermal energy production for the future
years is determined. According to these values, thermal production of Turkey in the year
2050 is expected to be 688 billion kWh (Figure 9).
Conclusion
According to the result of the calculations, the electric energy need of Turkey in the year
2050 is approximately 1,173 billion kWh. DSI (1999) has planned to use the entire hydro
electrical potential until the year 2050. The economically usable hydro electrical potential
is known to be approximately 125 billion kWh, and the yearly thermal energy production
is calculated as 688 billion kWh. So, Turkey requires 360 billion kWh energy produced
by other energy resources. According to these values renewable energy resources should
be used until the year 2050 for this 360 billion kWh energy production. These resources
are wind energy, sun energy, sea originated energy, biomass energy and hydrogen energy,
which is the energy of future.
The whole wind energy of Turkey is 200 billion kWh and the sea originated energy
potential by using one fifth of sea sides is 18.5 billion. The total potential of other energy
resources is not known clearly.
According to the production values of 2001 (Figure 2), 75% of the total energy is
produced by thermal power stations, and 25% is produced by hydraulic power stations.
In the calculations we have made, in the year 2050, 58% of the total energy production
will be produced by thermal power stations, 10% of it will be produced by hydraulic
power stations, and the rest will be produced by the other energy resources. These values
show that the energy need of Turkey will increase yearly.
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References
Asmaz, E. 2002. Determining of Hydroenergy Potential in Turkey, Graduation Project, Advisor:
Dr. Zehra Yumurtaci, Yildiz Technical University, 2002.
Chairmanship of Load Department. 2002. Activities of Establishments Report for the Year 2002.
TEAS Turkish Electricity Production and Transmission Corporation, Ankara.
DIE (State Statistics Institute). 2002. Population values (1980–2002). DIE Report for the year
2002, Ankara.
DSI (State Hydraulic Works). 1999. Statistical Information. DSI Report for the year 1999, Ankara.
EIEI (Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development Administration). 2002. Statistical
Information. EIEI Report for the year 2002, Ankara.
Evaluation and Statistics of Energy Demand Directorate. (1980–1999). Turkey Electricity Distribution and Consumption Statistics (1980–1999). APK Study, Planning and Coordination Council,
2000, Ankara.
TEAS Report for the year 2002. TEAS Turkish Electricity Production and Transmission Corporation, 2002, Ankara.