EUROPEAN COUNCIL
Study Guide
Topic B
EU foreign relations with Arab
Spring countries
1
Table of Contents
1.
Introduction and Definitions ................................................................................................................................. 3
2.
Historical Overview ................................................................................................................................................... 4
3.
European Response ................................................................................................................................................... 4
4.
Country Cases ............................................................................................................................................................... 6
4.1 National economies of the four countries prior to the Arab Spring: ................................................... 7
4.2 Economic Impact of the Arab Spring ................................................................................................................... 7
4.3 Recent changes in the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) caused by the Arab Spring .... 9
4.4 Future Prospects ........................................................................................................................................................... 9
5.
Conclusion and Questions a Resolution should answer ........................................................................ 10
6.
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................................... 11
Further Reading: ................................................................................................................................................................ 12
2
1.
Introduction and Definitions
This term “Arab Spring” is a reference to the Revolutions of 1848 (sometimes called
"Springtime of the People") and the Prague Spring in 1968. The expression “Arab Spring
countries” involves the Middle East and North Africa, namely Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria,
Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan (today: Sudan and South Sudan), Israel, Palestine, Lebanon,
Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Djibouti, Somalia, Oman, Qatar, Sahrain,
United Arab Emirates, Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. “Arab Spring” as well as "Arab
Spring and Winter", "Arab Awakening" and "Arab Uprisings" are flexible labels indicating the
events that took place in the past two years in a vast area which comprises also several
countries that are not strictly part of the Arab world.
Two years have passed since the outbreak of the Arab Spring that led many countries in
North Africa to a democratic transition. The unrest, revolution and war that followed have
forced the EU to radically re-think its foreign relations with those countries. Migration and
mobility became key components of the European Union High Representative’s new
framework for cooperation with the region. Significant funds were given by the European
Investment Bank to kindle off various economic and social reforms in order to help the most
impoverished regions, and stimulate employment.
(http://www.againstcronycapitalism.org/wp-content/uploads/cronyismthe_reason_for_the_arab_spring.png)
3
2.
Historical Overview
On December 18th 2010, the first protests occurred in Tunisia after the self-immolation of
Mohamed Bouazizi who was protesting against ill treatment and police corruption and was
named the “Burning Man” for the way he conduced his protest. The success of the
demonstrations in Tunisia resulted in uprisings in Algeria, Jordan, Egypt and Yemen as well as
other countries later on. Friday afternoon prayers were normally the days in which the most
far-reaching riots occurred and, for this reason, such days were called “days of rage”. By
September 2012 the governments of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen had been brought down.
Many other leaders announced their intention to resign at the end of their terms.
The causes of these revolts are diverse and touch upon social as well as economical factors.
The masses were dissatisfied with local governments that had been ruling for decades with
forms of dictatorship and absolute monarchy concentrating wealth in the hands of autocrats as
a consequence of political corruption. Increasing food prices and global famine rates together
with human rights violations, unemployment and extreme poverty were also significant
factors. The tension between increasing aspirations and a lack of political reform was the root
of all demonstrations.
These protests had a great echo all over the globe and their importance was also recognized
by awarding a prominent leader from Yemen the Nobel Peace Prize in 2011.
The change brought about in the Arab Spring countries was seen by Josef Janning (in his
European Policy Centre (EPC) paper1) “as part of a larger phenomenon of adaptation to the
parameters of a globalized world”. Two years after the protests, the political and economic
situation is not stable yet. This is due the fact that the new governments were confronted with
a multitude of priorities (expressed by the rioting public) to restart the economy, improve the
performance and accountability of the public administration, take measures against corruption
and re-establish efficient security mechanisms.
Despite the fact that most of the Middle Eastern and Northern African countries have
responded to the Arab Spring, there are still great differences in the way they initiated a
process of reforms and political transformation. Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco and Jordan seem to be
the most promising countries in terms of better governance and higher legitimacy.
3.
European Response
The unrests in the Arab and North African world forced many people to leave their
countries. The greatest part of them found protection in camps set up by the UNHCR in
1
http://www.epc.eu/documents/uploads/pub_2825_the_arab_spring_one_year_later.pdf
4
neighbouring countries. Many crossed the Mediterranean and arrived in the EU – more
specifically in Italy, Malta and Cyprus. Between 1 January and 31 July 2011, approximately
48,000 irregular migrants arrived in Italy as part of the 2011 influx from North Africa - 24,769
originated from Tunisia and 23,267 arrived from Libya and Sub-Saharan Africa2 Malta received
some 1.500 individuals during the spring and summer of 2011, the vast majority from Libya
and sub-Saharan Africa.3 The European answer to these migrations resulted in four types of
measures:
-the intensification of border control and surveillance
-pressure on new authorities in North Africa to cooperate in curbing irregular migration
-the introduction of new legislative proposals suspending mobility
-the attempt to address the refugee crisis in North Africa. 4
A joint communication titled “A Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity with
the Southern Mediterranean” was composed by the Commission and EU High Representative
Ms. Ashton in March 2011. This communication was the basis of a new approach towards the
creation of an incentive-based regime in which North African countries would be expected to
implement reforms towards democracy, civil society involvement and human rights, with free
and fair elections. 5
On this path of action, the Dialogue for Migration, Mobility and Security moved from a
dynamic mobility policy aimed at supporting the development of democratization of Arab
Spring countries to migration management and border controls. Finally the Global Approach to
Migration and Mobility (GAMM) aims at having an impact on the wide spectrum of EU foreign
policy. “The European Commission underscores the necessity for the GAMM to be
complementary to other, broader objectives that are served by EU foreign policy and
development cooperation and to address migration and mobility, foreign policy and
development objectives in a coherent and integrated way.”6
The policies presented in the Dialogue have not so far achieved the promised result of
opening channels for mobility and creating a real partnership. This approach has the potential
to establish “mutually beneficial” partnerships that will support smooth economic and political
transformation. However working arrangements and institutional configurations need to be
Figures provided by the Italian Ministry of Interior at a press conference held in mid-August 2011 and cited in
Nascimbene & Di Pascale (2011, p. 343)
3 International Office of Migration (IOM), “Response to the Libyan Crisis”, External Situation Report, 31
October2011 - http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/external_sit_rep_31st_october.pdf
4 http://www.medpro-foresight.eu/system/files/MEDPRO%20TR%20No%2015%20WP9%20Carrera.pdf
5 Commission, High Representative, Joint Communication to the European Council, the European Parliament, the
Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions – A Partnership for
Democracy and Shared Prosperity with the Southern Mediterranean, Brussels, 8 March 2011, COM(2011) 200
final, p. 5
6 European Commission, Communication, The Global Approach to Migration and Mobility
2
5
established to shape the renewed Global Approach to Migration and Mobility (GAMM) at EU
level, which has long been marked by internal fragmentation and a lack of transparency. 7
The European Council President, Herman Van Rompuy, stated that the success of the
democratic transition in these countries has “fully justified the EU’s support”, thereby
announcing an increase of financial aid – thus demonstrating the EU’s long-term support. 8
Already in September 2011, Van Rompuy addressed the UN General Assembly in New York,
announcing an increase of financial aid to help “improve the economic performance of the
country and fight against poverty”, committing the EU’s long-term support to the ongoing
democratic transition, which is long and often difficult, but must be irreversible. 9
4.
Country Cases
Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria have all been important protagonists of the Arab Spring
and are all part of the European neighbourhood policy (ENP). The paper “ The Arab Spring and
the European Neighbourhood Policy: An Economic Outlook” by Gilles Grin (Appointed Director
of the Jean Monnet Foundation for Europe, Lausanne, and Lecturer at the University of
Lausanne)10 analyses said country cases.
http://www.medpro-foresight.eu/system/files/MEDPRO%20TR%20No%2015%20WP9%20Carrera.pdf
http://www.ejpress.org/article/news/64488
9 http://euobserver.com/foreign/118746
10 http://www.fondation-pierredubois.ch/Papiers-d-actualite/arabspring.html
7
8
6
4.1 National economies of the four countries prior to the Arab Spring: 11
4.2 Economic Impact of the Arab Spring
The economic consequences of the protests in these four countries have been dramatic.
The Arab Spring occurred just when the economies were slowly recovering from the
These figures have been compiled from the following sources: European Commission, Pocketbook on EuroMediterranean Statistics, Luxembourg, Publications Office of the European Union, 2010, 134 p. André Sapir and
Georg Zachmann, “A European Mediterranean Economic Area to Kick-Start Economic Development”, in: Sven
Biscop, Rosa Balfour, Michael Emerson (eds.), An Arab Springboard for EU Foreign Policy? Gent, Academia Press,
2012, pp. 37-47. Ahmed Galal and Jean-Louis Reiffers (coord.), Towards a New Med Region: Achieving
Fundamental Transitions, FEMISE Report on the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership 2011, October 2011, VI-224 p.
Clement Moore Henry and Robert Springborg, Globalization and the Politics of Development in the Middle East,
Cambridge, New York, Cambridge University Press, 2nd ed., 2010, p. 149. Le Temps, Geneva, 20.02.2012, pp. 2+4,
21.02.2012, pp. 1-3, 22.02.2012, pp. 1-3. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (ed.), The Military
Balance 2012: The Annual Assessment of Global Military Capabilities and Defence Economics, Abingdon,
Routledge, 2012, 504 p.
11
7
international crisis, hence the IMF attested 2011 to be a zero-growth year in economic terms.
On top of this, incomes from tourism have been cut by half and prices and unemployment have
increased. Gilles Grin explains this situation stating that: “We must remember that a transition
towards more political openness can have economic costs in the short term. In the longer run,
with political stability and democracy, economic development should gain. The current
economic downturn can be explained by instability, lack of security, strikes, poor state of the
public administration, and the wait-and-see attitude of the former ruling economic elites. “
The current situation in those countries is characterised by scarce job opportunities
and local communities struggling with reconstruction after decades of autocracy, giving rise to
renewed social tensions. Van Rompuy, concerned with the growing political and social
tensions, also offered to send an EU election monitoring Mission to Tunisia during the June
presidential and parliamentary elections.12
Tunisia has initiated various
economic and social reforms, some
of which are backed with EU funds
of €68 million, signed off in
Brussels in November 2012. These
funds were given to help the most
impoverished regions and employ
recent graduates. Also, in December
2012, the European Investment
Bank committed €270 million to
support employment and other jobcreating investments. The bank
expects some of the money to
create at least 10.000 additional
jobs. Nevertheless, high unemployment remains elusive.
“A new survey found that young people's major concerns have shifted. The "Arab Youth
Survey 2012" shows that people between age 18 and 24 in the Arab world are more worried
about earning a substantial wage and owning a house than about living in a democratic
country—a significant shift from last year” 13
12
13
http://euobserver.com/foreign/118746 and http://www.ejpress.org/article/news/64488
http://www.good.is/posts/infographic-the-changing-lives-of-arab-youth/
8
4.3 Recent changes in the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) caused
by the Arab Spring
The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) was developed in 2004, with the objective
of avoiding the emergence of new dividing lines between the enlarged EU and its neighbours
and strengthening the prosperity, stability and security of all. This framework has been
proposed to 16 of EU's closest neighbours – Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt,
Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Moldova, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory,
Syria, Tunisia and Ukraine.14 The four countries analyzed in this Section are therefore all
included in the ENP.
The European Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs
and Security Policy proposed a renewal of the ENP. Their intention was to help countries that
progress the most in terms of the establishment of democracy and the rule of law. “More for
more, less for less” is the slogan of these new policies based on direct subsidies, market access,
and mobility and supported by both the European Parliament and the European Council. “The
Economist” justifies the new policy as follows: “Policies should be better tailored for each
neighbour. Europe cannot change geography, so it will have to deal with all the countries on its
rim, democratic or autocratic. But in its circle of neighbours, it must always demonstrate that
its best friends are the democrats.”15
The EU has established the prospect of “deep and comprehensive free trade areas” with
the most advanced of the aforementioned countries. Tunisia, Egypt and Libya will be the first
beneficiaries of this new framework. Gilles Grin continues his analysis stating that “A longterm prospect sometimes mentioned is that some MENA countries could join the European
Economic Area (EEA) or its equivalent, which would mean joining the internal market of the
Union. Even if economic theory generally considers this to be good on economic ground, the
countries joining such a framework need to develop a strong administrative and regulatory
institutional framework in order to be able to cope with the “acquis communautaire”. The task
would not be easy. A second problem, faced by EEA countries not belonging to the EU, is that
they have to sacrifice sovereignty for the sake of belonging to the European internal market.
Would this be acceptable politically for MENA countries, especially if they do not have the
prospect of joining the EU one day?” 16
4.4 Future Prospects
From one country to another, there will be significant differences. In particular, Tunisia
probably offers the most favourable conditions for future success and is considered to have
become Europe’s showcase. Egypt, Libya and Syria, are facing a more tense situation. In these
14
http://ec.europa.eu/world/enp/policy_en.htm
The Economist, London, 09.04.2011, p. 34
16
http://www.fondation-pierredubois.ch/Papiers-d-actualite/arabspring.html#_edn4
15
9
countries changes will not just take years, but decades. The fact that Libya and Syria are
important oil-producing countries provides them with an income. However, such resources
need to be managed in an efficient and equitable way. 17
5.
Conclusion and Questions a Resolution
should answer
The European Council is ready to strengthen and expand its foreign relations with the
Arab Spring countries to pursue further democratization relating to judicial independence,
strengthening the role of civil society, empowering women, media independence, the
consolidation of individual freedoms and, lastly, prudent security reforms. The European
approach is wide in its scope and combines several tools. Since the stakes are high for Europe,
real consideration should be given to what happens in its neighbourhood. The riots have been
considered in a recent analysis as a historic opportunity to establish a new dynamics across the
Mediterranean. The success of the transition to democracy in the Arab Spring countries could
significantly benefit Europe both economically (if open and dynamic societies replace the
closed worlds of the autocrats) and strategically (by influencing the Middle East, thus “resetting” relations with the wider Muslim world). 18
We have already discussed the economic importance of the ENP, though it is still too
early to evaluate its effects. The EU should not lose sight of the historic character of the recent
events that have shaken the Arab Spring countries and should ease their transition towards
political pluralism and economic rejuvenation. In the long term, the “market” and “mobility”
sides of its concept should easily supersede the “money” dimension.
Moreover, the promotion of regional economic integration between the Arab Spring
countries would be a very positive policy to conduct. Obstacles to trade are currently very high
and can take the form of non-tariff barriers, red tape and poor infrastructure. The
consequences of these obstables, however, are always the same and lead to market
fragmentation. In this respect, the project to strengthen the Arab Maghreb Union gathering
Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, Tunisia, and Libya is an interesting plan. 19
Many questions have been posed by commentators: how can history explain what North
Africa and the Middle East are experiencing? Are the Arab Spring events analogous to the
collapse of communism following the fall of the Berlin Wall or to the end of the colonial era
following the Second World War? What can the Arab Spring teach Europe about political
economy and more specifically about political risk, social transformation and the management
of risk for private investors in countries undergoing such transformations? What kind of
Ibid.
http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/commentary_europes_role_in_the_arab_spring
19 http://www.fondation-pierredubois.ch/Papiers-d-actualite/arabspring.html#_edn4
17
18
10
economic and political policies will Europe enact and what role will it have in the
democratisation process of the Arab Spring countries?
6.
Bibliography
The Arab Spring one year later: voices from North Africa, Middle East and Europe, EPC Issue
Paper N. 69. July 2012. Edited by Josef Janning and Andrea Frontini
http://www.epc.eu/documents/uploads/pub_2825_the_arab_spring_one_year_later.pdf
International Office of Migration (IOM), “Response to the Libyan Crisis”, External Situation
Report, 31 October2011
http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/external_sit_rep_31st_october.pdf
EU Migration Policy in the wake of the Arab Spring, What prospects for EU-Southern
Mediterranean Relations? By Sergio Carrera, Leonhard den Hertog and Joanna Parkin
(MEDPRO Technical Report No. 15/August 2012)
http://www.medproforesight.eu/system/files/MEDPRO%20TR%20No%2015%20WP9%20Carrera.pdf
Commission, High Representative, Joint Communication to the European Council, the
European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the
Committee of the Regions – A Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity with the
Southern Mediterranean, Brussels, 8 March 2011, COM(2011) 200 final
http://eeas.europa.eu/euromed/docs/com2011_200_en.pdf
European Commission, Communication, The Global Approach to Migration and Mobility
http://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/news/intro/docs/1_EN_ACT_part1_v9.pdf
http://www.ejpress.org/article/news/64488
EU Observer: “Post-Arab Spring countries face 'social time bomb,' EU says” 16.01.13 By Nikolaj
Nielsen
http://euobserver.com/foreign/118746
“ The Arab Spring and the European Neighbourhood Policy: An Economic Outlook” by Gilles
Grin
http://www.fondation-pierredubois.ch/Papiers-d-actualite/arabspring.html
Infographic: the changing lives of arab youth
http://www.good.is/posts/infographic-the-changing-lives-of-arab-youth/
11
European Commission: European Neighborhood Policy
http://ec.europa.eu/world/enp/policy_en.htm
European Council on Foreign Relations: Europe's role in the Arab Spring By Nick Witney- 26
September 12
http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/commentary_europes_role_in_the_arab_spring
The Arab Spring, History, and Political Economy
http://blogs.worldbank.org/miga/the-arab-spring-history-and-political-economy
Further Reading:
Map of the Arab Spring Protest
http://tripline.net/trip/Map_of_the_Arab_Spring_Protests2173004375451003A9ECA90105EA623D
Al Monitor, The Pulse of the Middle East: High Youth Unemployment Still plagues Arab Spring
Countries
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/arab-spring-fails-to-solve-unemp.html
CNN: Don’t lose hope over Arab Spring, by Randall Kuhn
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/15/dont-lose-hope-over-arab-spring/
The EU’s response to the Arab Spring
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-11-918_en.htm
Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
http://www.miga.org/
The Arab Spring and the EU Democracy Promotion Efforts: Between Intentions and
Perceptions
http://www.eui.eu/DepartmentsAndCentres/RobertSchumanCentre/Research/InternationalT
ransnationalRelations/MediterraneanProgramme/MRM/MRM2013/ws05.aspx
12