VENTURA COMMODITIES PVT.LTD. BLACK PEPPER INDEX GLOBAL SCENARIO: Page No. 3 World offer/demand seems to be in deficit of at least 10%. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: 4 HISTORY OF PEPPER: 5 THE MOST IMPORTANT SPICE IN THE WORLD WORLD PEPPER INDUSTRY 7 Producing Countries World Production World Area and Productivity WORLD EXPORTS: 13 Pepper exports Black Pepper White pepper WORLD IMPORTS OF PEPPER: 17 COMMON USES OF PEPPER: 19 COUNTRYWISE PEPPER OUTLOOK: 20 Vietnam's pepper output seen falling: India Pepper exports may jump 30% Indonesia sees 2008 pepper output to fall by 57 pct Brazil exports rise 59% on higher yields Imports to us: Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. IT'S A TOPSY, TURVY WORLD! 26 Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. BRIEF REPORT ON BLACK PEPPER BLACK PEPPER Black pepper (Piper nigrum), the king of spices, is one of the oldest and the most popular spice in the world. It is a perennial, climbing vine indigenous to the Malabar Coast of India. The hotly pungent spice made from its berries is one of the earliest spices known and is probably the most widely used spice in the world today. It was mentioned as far back as 1000 BC in ancient Sanskrit literature. In early historic times black pepper was widely cultivated in the tropics of Southeast Asia, where it became an important article of overland trade between India and Europe. It became a medium of exchange, and tributes were levied in black pepper in ancient Greece and Rome. In the Middle Ages the Venetian and the Genoese became the main distributors, their virtual monopoly of the trade helping to instigate the search for an eastern sea route. The name Pepper comes from the Sanskrit word Pippali meaning berry. Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. GLOBAL SCENARIO: Global supply for this year is expected to amount to 2,70,000 tonnes, while global demand is predicted to reach 3,76,500 tonnes, led by rising demand from Russia, China and India. With an additional carry-over stock from last year of 59,000 tonnes, the global pepper supply will suffer a shortfall of 47,500 tonnes. World offer/demand seems to be in deficit of at least 10%. Indonesian crop is estimated to be around 15,000 tonne in 2008 and the Brazilian crop around 32,000 tonne, On top of that Indonesia crop still show some weakness in their production. Low stocks in Consuming countries (mainly is US and Europe) China and India still increase their consumption. Expected fall in supplies from Vietnam could push global pepper prices up to around $4,000 a tonne from $3,500 a tonne Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: RECOMMENDATION: NCDEX PEPPER August contract made a high of 18055 on 24 April 2007; after which it gave correction upto 13630 level. Two consecutive closes above 15920 can show 18055 levels. On closing bases above 18055 it can give move of 1000-1500 Rs. upmove. Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. HISTORY OF PEPPER: THE MOST IMPORTANT SPICE IN THE WORLD Known as the “King of Spices”, Pepper is the most important spice traded internationally, accounting for some one-third of the total volume and value Pepper was one the earliest commodities traded between the Orient and Europe. In medieval times, pepper frequently changed hands as rent, dowry and tax. “Peppercorn rent” may today mean something trivial or next-to-nothing but in the middle Ages, pepper was the preferred currency, prized by the wealthy. The history of medieval Europe throws up further evidence of the influence pepper had in the trading community. Pepper traders even had their own vernacular names: ‘Pepperer’ in England, “Pfeffersacke” in Germany and “Poivrier” in France. The cities of Alexandria, Genoa and Venice carried on brisk trade in pepper during the middle Ages. In fact, they owed their prosperity to this priceless commodity. Vasco de Gama’s discovery of a sea-route to the spice lands of Malabar Coast in 1498 was triggered by his obsession with spices, particularly pepper. Gama’s feat had two results: one, it gave Portugal a secure monopoly over the spice trade. Two, it destroyed the economies of Alexandria, Genoa and Venice, which were built on the prosperity which Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. pepper had brought them. For the next two centuries, Lisbon was the richest European port since it remained the key trading center for pepper and other oriental spices. In 1595, Houtman of Holland made a successful voyage to Indonesia. This was the beginning of the end of Portugal’s monopoly over spice trade. By 1605, the Dutch drove away the Portuguese from the Moluccas. Holland gradually established a firm grip over the pepper producing centers near Lampong in Sumatera and Banten in Java. Pepper is a thriving agricultural activity in these regions even today. The Dutch control over spice production and was sale considerably weakened by 1650 when pepper cultivation spread to the Malay Archipelago. The Dutch could not do anything about it because this area was outside their sphere of influence. During the 19th century, London emerged as the world’s most important spice center. By then, increased production had driven pepper prices down, making it affordable even to the man on the street. Pepper no longer remained the exclusive commodity of the rich and famous. When the fortunes of the Dutch East India Company were down, the US rode into the fray. In 1797, Jonathan Carnes of Massachusetts sailed into the New York waters with Sumatran pepper worth US$100,000. The US cities of Salem and Boston soon became main spice centres. Incidentally, the dare-devil commanders of the 18th century trading ships were the forebears of today’s US merchant marine. Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Today the pepper trade encompasses the world with Western Europe, United States, Japan and Korea being the biggest consumers. The main pepper producing countries are Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia, China and Sri Lanka WORLD PEPPER INDUSTRY Producing Countries Pepper is cultivated today in many countries- Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka Vietnam, China, Ecuador, Madagascar, Thailand and Cambodia produce quantities of pepper significant in world trade. Other countries where pepper is grown on a small scale are Mexico, Brunei, Fiji, Samoa, Micronesia, Guatemala, Honduras, St. Lucia, Tanzania, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Benin, Kenya, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Uganda and Zambia. World Production World pepper production has been increasing over the last half century. Recent estimates show that annual production ranged between 176,000 to 239,000 tons during 1991 to1996. IPC estimates that world production in 2003 was much higher at 362,160 tons. This increase in production has mainly been due to a substantial expansion in area and production in Vietnam, as well as increased output from Indonesia and China. In 2004, there was a marginal decline in production of about 3%. Vietnam has become the world’s largest producer of pepper, followed by India and Indonesia. Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Table gives details of worldwide area, production and yield of pepper during the period from 2001 to 2004. 2001 Country 2002 Area Prodn Yield (ha) (MT) (kg/ha) (ha) (MT) 2003 (kg/ha) (ha) 2004 (MT) (kg/ha) (ha) (MT) (kg/ha) Brazil - 43,000 1,103 41,000 45,000 1,098 50,000 50,000 1,000 45,000 45,000 1,000 India 218,670 79,000 361 220,620 80,000 363 216,550 65,000 300 216,550 62,000 286 Indonesia 159,884 59,000 369 184,000 66,000 359 171,000 80,000 468 150,000 55,000 367 Malaysia 11,600 27,000 2,328 13,100 24,000 1,832 13,100 21,000 1,603 13,000 20,000 1,538 Sri Lanka 30,794 7,800 253 31,020 12,600 406 31,969 12,660 396 32,232 12,020 373 Vietnam 36,106 56,000 1,551 47,900 75,000 1,566 48,800 85,000 1,742 50,000 105,000 2,100 China 17,000 21,700 1,276 17,000 23,000 1,353 17,000 33,000 1,941 28,400 35,000 1,232 Thailand 2,897 8,820 3,045 2,890 9,960 3,446 2,800 9,500 3,393 2,800 9,500 3,393 Madagascar 4,000 3,375 844 4,000 2,500 625 4,000 2,500 625 4,000 2,500 625 Others 1,500 2,500 1,667 3,000 3,000 1,000 3,000 3,500 1,167 3,000 4,689 1,563 521,451 308,195 564,530 341,060 558,119 362,160 544,982 350,679 Total 591 604 649 643 Source: International Pepper community World Pepper Production 1970- 2005 Countries India Malaysia Indonesia Brazil SLanka Thailand Vietnam China Madaga - Cambodia Total - 2,000 2,115 - 100,460 - - 2,755 - 140,097 Year 1970 25,000 24,400 17,219 14,267 14,000 1980 29,490 30,700 31,500 40,628 1,014 3,250 1990 65,000 31,000 53,000 31,500 1,990 10,345 8,623 - 3,380 - 203,961 1995 55,000 15,500 59,000 20,000 3,725 10,949 20,000 5,000 2,500 - 189,174 Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. 1996 65,000 16,000 39,500 25,700 3,987 7,730 20,000 - 2,100 - 191,771 1997 60,000 18,000 43,291 18,000 4,470 5,183 25,000 - 1,500 - 187,000 1998 65,000 19,000 56,250 17,000 6,771 5,313 22,000 - 1,700 - 205,034 1999 75,000 21,500 44,500 22,000 4,740 7,000 30,000 12,000 2,000 - 218,740 2000 58,000 24,000 77,500 30,000 10,676 6,534 36,000 10,000 1,500 - 254,210 2001 79,000 27,000 59,000 43,000 7,800 8,819 56,000 21,700 3,376 - 305,695 2002 80,000 24,000 66,000 45,000 12,600 9,962 75,000 23,000 2,500 3,250 341,312 2003 65,000 21,000 65,000 50,000 12,660 9,500 85,000 21,000 2,500 2004e 62,000 21,000 30,500 45,000 12,000 9,500 85,000 23,000 2,500 1,259 294,159 2005f 70,000 20,000 29,000 40,000 13,500 9,500 85,000 25,000 2,500 1,275 299,275 355,160 In metric tonnes; e = estimate; f = forecast Source: IPC Cultivation: The plant requires a long rainy season, fairly high temperatures, and partial shade for the best growth. Propagation is usually by stem cuttings. The cuttings are set out near a tree or a pole that will serve as a support. Black pepper plants are sometimes interspersed in tea or coffee plantations. They begin bearing in 2 to 5 years and may produce for as long as 40 years. The berries are picked when they begin to turn red. The collected berries are scalded with boiling water for about 10 minutes, which causes them to turn dark brown or black in an hour. Then they are Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. spread out to dry in the sun for three or four days. The whole peppercorns, when ground, yield black pepper. White pepper is obtained by removing the outer part of the pericarp of the ripened berries. The outer coating is softened either by keeping the berries in moist heaps for 2 or 3 days or by keeping them in sacks submerged in running water for 7 to 15 days, depending on the region. The softened outer coating is then removed by washing and rubbing or by trampling, and the berries are spread in the sun to dry. Whole white pepper can also be prepared by grinding off the outer coating mechanically. The flavour is less pungent than that of black pepper. Green peppers are immature berries freeze dried or mechanically air dried. They are available pickled in brine or vinegar. Harvesting Chart of Pepper in Major Producing Countries Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Vietnam India Brazil Indonesia Malaysia Sri Lanka Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Dec World Area and Productivity There has been steady growth in area and production of pepper over the last few years. Total planted area reportedly increased from 523,000 ha in 2001 to 563,000 ha in 2003, an increase of 7.7 %. The attractive price for pepper, which prevailed during 1999 and to some extent in 2000, encouraged farmers to expand the area cultivated with pepper. Overall estimated pepper yield, however appears to have peaked in 2002, at 637 kg per hectare, declining in 2003 to 581 kg per hectare, reflecting decreased expenditure on farm maintenance and inputs. This expansion of area and increase in production is of concern to producers, for the world market has responded to the surplus production with steadily declining prices, to the very low levels prevailing at present. It is observed that the unattractive price level prevailing for a period of time has discouraged farmers from cultivating pepper in new areas. While the expectation of future production declines may curb further deterioration in price, total supply is likely to remain at a relatively high level, barring any unforeseen developments such as extreme weather conditions in producing countries as newly planted areas are likely to offset declines in productivity in old and poorly maintained farms. India: Ninety percent of the pepper grown in India is found in Kerala and the rest mainly in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. There are small Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. areas of production in Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Goa, Assam and Tripura. Black pepper produced in Kerala is known as Malabar Black Pepper. The official estimates of area and production of pepper in different states and Union Territories in India are shown in Table. Area, Production and yield of Black Pepper in India 1992-1993 State 2001-2002 Area Prodn Yield (ha) (MT) (kg/ha) (ha) (MT) 2002-2003* (kg/ha) (ha) (MT) (kg/ha) 2,980 750 252 12,100 20,760 1,716 12,000 16,870 1,406 183,480 49,670 271 203,960 58,240 286 200,000 47,320 237 Tamil Nadu 2,810 280 100 4,110 910 221 4,000 740 185 Pondicherry Andaman & Nicobar Island 110 10 91 - - - - - - 110 50 455 450 90 200 550 70 127 189,490 50,760 220,620 80,000 216,550 65,000 Karnataka Kerala Total 268 363 300 *Provisional Source: Directorate of Economics and Statics, New Delhi In Kerala, more than 80% of the pepper farms are small (< 0.2 ha) or medium (0.2 ha to 0. 8 ha). Karnataka, which is the second largest producing State in India, grows pepper extensively in coffee plantations using shade tree, mainly silver oak as supports. Yields per hectare in India are among the lowest when compared to other producing Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. countries, mainly because pepper is grown as a mixed crop and improved production technologies are not widely adopted. With nearly 40% of the global area under pepper, India’s share of world production in 2002 was only 23%. With the increasing domestic demand, Indian exports have declined from 36,908 MT in 1988-89 to 17,000 MT in 2003-04, despite relatively high FOB prices compared to other producing countries. WORLD EXPORTS: Pepper exports Total pepper exports have shown a substantial increase during the period 1985-2004, from 96,162 tons in 1985 to 230,521 tons in 2004, recording a compound growth rate (CGR) of 4.7 percent. The emergence of Vietnam as the world’s largest exporter of pepper between 2001- 2004 is another significant development during this period. Demand (as reflected by the export figures) has increased most significantly over the last 7 years, as can be seen from the CGR of 7.2 percent during 1997-2004. This has absorbed a major portion of Vietnamese production. Whole pepper is usually exported as black, white or green. However black and white pepper account for more than 95 percent of pepper exports from the producing countries. Country wise exports of black pepper are shown in Table. Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Total Exports of Pepper by Country (1985-2004) Years Brazil India Indonesia Malaysia Sri Lanka Vietnam Others Total 1985 24,676 19,536 26,201 18,751 1,260 1,335 4,403 96,162 1986 22,069 49,807 29,572 15,366 1,287 3,133 3,658 124,892 1987 25,500 32,252 29,994 13,826 2,015 4,275 3,302 111,164 1988 23,550 47,258 41,494 18,554 2,692 2,612 3,385 139,545 1989 27,692 25,120 42,136 25,524 1,575 7,551 4,984 134,582 1990 28,014 34,429 47,676 27,706 2,609 8,995 5,779 155,208 1991 47,553 18,945 49,665 25,458 2,058 16,252 5,845 165,776 1992 25,702 19,399 61,438 21,932 2,127 22,358 7,629 160,585 1993 24,119 47,228 25,801 15,727 7,779 14,801 8,837 144,292 1994 21,103 34,111 35,134 22,312 3,411 15,000 10,431 141,502 1995 21,259 24,541 56,129 13,991 2,278 17,900 3,103 139,201 1996 23,418 41,138 36,560 19,128 2,987 25,300 3,334 151,865 1997 13,961 37,816 33,011 24,808 3,279 23,500 5,392 141,767 1998 17,250 32,154 38,311 18,699 5,493 22,000 1,822 135,729 1999 19,615 45,156 35,227 21,534 3,754 28,000 4,981 158,267 2000 20,385 21,108 63,938 22,730 4,855 36,465 2,261 171,742 2001 36,585 21,459 53,291 24,929 3,161 56,506 2,144 198,075 2002 37,531 24,900 53,210 22,642 8,225 78,155 8,609 233,272 2003 37,940 17,787 60,596 18,530 8,240 74,600 8,597 226,290 2004 40,529 14,049 45,760 18,206 4,853 98,494 8,630 230,521 Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Black Pepper Total Exports of Black Pepper by Country (1985-2004) Years Brazil India Indonesia Malaysia Sri Lanka Vietnam Others Total 1985 22,568 19,536 14,081 13,633 1,260 1,335 4,403 76,816 1986 20,368 49,807 13,304 11,569 1,287 3,133 3,658 103,126 1987 24,499 32,252 10,394 11,429 2,015 4,275 3,302 88,166 1988 21,691 47,258 19,600 14,919 2,692 2,612 3,347 112,119 1989 26,558 25,120 17,303 22,467 1,575 7,551 3,494 104,068 1990 27,110 34,429 13,015 25,602 2,609 8,995 5,264 117,024 1991 45,581 18,945 19,024 23,649 2,058 16,252 5,682 131,191 1992 25,103 19,399 31,327 20,244 2,127 22,358 7,448 128,006 1993 22,404 47,228 8,419 11,874 7,779 14,801 6,396 118,901 1994 19,373 33,999 16,675 17,407 3,411 15,000 2,670 108,535 1995 19,401 24,324 36,094 9,829 2,278 17,900 2,110 111,936 1996 20,710 40,940 19,150 13,946 2,987 25,300 1,926 124,959 1997 12,961 37,513 11,388 19,054 3,279 23,500 1,403 109,098 1998 16,070 31,984 21,161 14,043 5,493 22,000 834 111,585 1999 17,735 45,004 11,657 16,057 3,754 28,000 1,520 123,727 2000 19,385 21,039 29,682 20,978 4,855 36,465 1,285 133,689 2001 34,785 21,312 23,654 23,117 3,161 56,506 1,538 164,073 2002 35,531 24,661 21,020 20,453 8,225 78,155 3,839 191,884 2003 35,940 17,475 36,000 14,567 8,240 70,100 4,837 187,159 2004 35,260 13,860 32,000 15,655 4,853 90,614 5,205 197,447 Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Over the last 20 years black pepper exports have increased from 76,816 tons to 197,447 tons recording an annual growth rate of 5%. Over the last few years, Vietnam has overtaken the traditional pepper producing countries such as India and Indonesia and added considerable to world pepper production. Exports of black pepper from producing countries are shown in Table. White pepper The market segment for white pepper is generally smaller than for black pepper and has not shown growth comparable with black pepper. White pepper exports have fluctuated between 19,346 tons in 1985 to the highest of level of 41,388 tons recorded in 2002, after which exports declined to 33,074 tons in 2004. The annual growth rate recorded for the period 1985-2004 was only 2.9 percent. It is difficult, however to assess demand for white pepper, as there is likely to be some conversion of black pepper to white when the price of black pepper is low. Exports of white pepper from the major producing countries are shown in Table. Total Exports of White Pepper by Country (1985-2004) Years Brazil India Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Others Total 1985 2,108 - 12,120 5,118 - - 19,346 1986 1,701 - 16,268 3,797 - - 21,766 1987 1,001 - 19,600 2,397 - - 22,998 1988 1,859 - 21,894 3,635 - 38 27,426 1989 1,134 - 24,833 3,057 - 1,490 30,514 Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. 1990 904 - 34,661 2,104 - 515 38,184 1991 1,972 - 30,641 1,809 - 163 34,585 1992 599 - 30,111 1,688 - 181 32,579 1993 1,715 - 17,382 3,853 - 2,441 25,391 1994 1,730 112 18,459 4,905 - 7,761 32,967 1995 1,858 217 20,035 4,162 - 993 27,265 1996 2,708 198 17,410 5,182 - 1,408 26,906 1997 1,000 303 21,623 5,754 - 3,989 32,669 1998 1,180 170 17,150 4,656 - 988 24,144 1999 1,880 152 23,570 5,477 - 3,461 34,540 2000 1,000 69 34,256 1,752 - 976 38,053 2001 1,800 147 29,637 1,812 - 606 34,002 2002 2,000 239 32,190 2,189 - 4,770 41,388 2003 2,000 312 24,596 3,963 4,500 3,760 39,131 2004 5,269 189 13,760 2,551 7,880 3,425 33,074 WORLD IMPORTS OF PEPPER World imports of pepper, including pepper for re-export in various forms, has increased in line with exports. The United States is the world’s largest importer and consumer of pepper, Singapore features strongly in world trade in pepper as an importer but though much of the imports are re-exported. Germany and Netherlands are also important pepper importing countries for a domestic consumption as well as for processing and re-export. Over the last years, India has also begun to import significant amounts of pepper, as domestic demand for grinding and extraction as well as other uses expands. Growth in Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. imports has also been significant in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), France, Pakistan and Poland. World Import of Pepper by 25 Important Consuming Countries Sr. No 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 Country United States Of America 56,477 53,875 57,738 60,747 63,821 2 Singapore 48,149 45,491 43,806 42,616 29,415 3 Germany 19,515 17,776 19,951 21,489 22,994 4 Netherlands 16,519 17,517 19,422 19,289 17,399 5 India 3,080 6,045 6,325 15,635 14,584 6 United Arab Emirates 7,000 11,000 8,000 7,500 10,500 7 France 8,599 8,311 8,578 10,517 10,451 8 Japan 8,023 7,766 8,294 8,667 8,579 9 Russia Federation 4,915 6,328 5,330 7,194 6,956 10 United Kingdom 5,485 5,629 5,117 4,808 5,844 11 Canada 6,303 5,597 5,482 5,902 5,647 12 Pakistan 1,626 863 2,137 2,601 5,161 13 Poland 3,183 3,235 3,286 3,648 4,675 14 Egypt 2,931 4,949 6,848 5,531 4,312 15 Belgium 2,482 3,010 2,546 3,431 3,664 16 Korea, Republic of 3,010 3,177 3,648 3,378 3,576 17 Spain 2,381 2,391 3,051 3,027 3,485 18 Italy 3,610 3,754 3,473 3,768 3,420 19 China 3,418 4,681 5,211 5,245 3,276 20 Turkey 457 747 1,518 2,639 3,262 21 Malaysia 1,504 2,806 2,560 2,779 2,965 22 Ukraine 1,711 2,183 2,730 3,237 2,621 Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. 23 Australia 1,938 2,226 2,135 2,417 2,292 24 Austria 1,815 1,854 1,384 2,014 2,186 25 Morocco 282 441 1,276 848 2,095 38,586 47,725 47,000 43,139 40,020 252,999 269,377 276,846 292,066 283,200 Others Total COMMON USES OF PEPPER As a Food Condiment: The use of pepper as a seasoning/condiment, on its own or in spice blends, is on the increase with the growing popularity of snacks, ethnic foods, ready-to-cook meals as well as healthy low-sugar-andsalt foods especially in the developed countries. Black pepper tastes strongest when freshly ground although pre-ground pepper is often used in seasonings for convenience. White pepper is less aromatic than black pepper but has special applications, as in white sauces where black pepper would give them an undesirable speckled appearance. As a Preservative: The value of pepper as a natural preservative for meat and other perishable foods has been known for centuries. Studies have shown that this is due to the anti-oxidant and anti-microbial properties present in pepper. Known Medicinal Uses: Pepper is an important ingredient in Ayurvedic, Chinese and Unami and other traditional medicines. The three main therapeutic uses of pepper are as a stomachic, digestive and tonic. Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. COUNTRYWISE PEPPER OUTLOOK: VIETNAM: Vietnam's pepper output seen falling Crop for 2007 (85% harvested) has dropped by at least 20% to reach around 80,000- 90,000 Mt (old trees, low yield due to lack of fertilizer, insect damage on roots), and for the following years, it should stand below 100,000 mt. Farmers are also in strong position as they do not produce only pepper but other commodities (coffee price was good this year > 1,400$ /mt) or spices. Low carry over from 2006. Vietnam is the largest pepper exporter in the world, accounting for 33 percent [90,000 tonnes] of global supply in 2007, followed by Brazil on 15 percent [40,000 tonnes] and Indonesia on 13 percent [35,000 tonnes]. The shortage would lead to higher prices. Prices currently stand at about US$3,500 per tonne. The price could rise to $4,000 per tonne next year if the bad weather and pest attacks prevail Tight pepper supplies due to a fall in output have also cut Vietnam's pepper exports. Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. In the first six months of this year, the country exported 53,000 tonnes of pepper, down 38 percent from the same period last year. INDIA: Pepper exports may jump 30% Pepper exports are likely to go up by 20-30% in the current fiscal with global supply staying short. With their inventory level low, European and the US importers have to come to India, as it is the cheapest origin. Many buyers, who have postponed their purchase in anticipation of Vietnam decreasing their price, have no option but to turn to India. Vietnam is still not offering large quantities of the ASTA quality pepper indicating that there is genuine shortage of good quality stock. Traders expect the Indian exports to touch 40,000 tonne given the availability of good quality pepper in the accredited warehouses. The warehouses of the commodity exchanges have approximately 17,000 tonne of pepper and this is a major attraction for importers as it is quality assured. Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. India is also at an advantageous position with the crop arrivals from other destinations like Indonesia (August-September) and Brazil (October- November) expected to be short. With the help of subsidies, Indian pepper exports for FY 2006-07 stood at 28,750 tonne against 17,363 tonne during 2005-06. Spices Board has fixed a target of 30,000 tonne of pepper exports for the current fiscal. Exporters are in short position and expected to buy in the coming days INDONESIA: Indonesia sees 2008 pepper output to fall by 57 pct Indonesia's pepper output may fall by 57 percent to 15,000 tonnes in 2008 due to erratic weather. Indonesia, the world's third largest pepper exporter after Vietnam and Brazil, is expected to produce 35,000 tonnes of pepper this year, up 17 percent from 30,000 tonnes in 2006, because of large carryover stocks. If the weather is good, Indonesia can only produce about 15,000 tonnes next year according to industry officials. The expected increase in output this year is only because of carryover stocks with farmers and merchants and not because of improving productivity. Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. BRAZIL: Exports rise 59% on higher yields Month Avg. FOB $/MT Quantity Jan-07 2380 3163 Feb-07 2528 2926 Mar-07 2398 4355 Apr-07 2750 2820 May-07 3002 4157 Total 2007 2618 17422 Same period 2006 1439 10931 So far Brazil exported this year 17,422 mt against 10,931 mt for the same period last year. Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Export from Brazil has risen by 59% in the January-April period and the new crop in the nation will be higher than earlier estimate. Some new cropping areas in Brazil have reported higher yields and may compensate the shortage felt in the traditional areas BRAZILIAN PEPPER EXPORTS JANUARY - MAY 2006/2007 BY DESTINATIONS DESTINATION % Increase/Decrease JANUARY TO MAY IN MT 2006 2007 GERMANY ARGENTINA USA SPAIN EGIPT FRANCE HOLAND MEXICO SENEGAL SYRIA TURKEY/ARAB EMIRATES UCRAINE/RUSSIA The destinations that were 216% 24% 34% 422% 58.30% 233% -65% 47% 95% -48% top ranked 1,033 513 5,390 331 0 576 400 1,062 235 0 87 3,265 640 7,244 1,084 305 912 1,332 364 346 100 170 128 65 as for increase were: Spain - 422%, Holand - 232%, Germany - 216%. Although less impressive other countries also bought more this year: France - 58% and USA - 34%. Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Imports To US: Total monthly imports per year * missing data for 2004 year YEAR 2001 2002 2003 JANUARY 2,668 2,442 FEBRUARY 2,818 MARCH 2005 2006 2007 5,728 4,540 4,608 4,226 1,913 3,436 2,704 3,397 2,405 2,503 3,799 3,820 3,566 4,317 2,321 APRIL 3,969 4,478 2,567 2,697 3,731 4,497 MAY 5,403 3,826 3,722 4,625 3,728 JUNE 5,020 5,014 3,579 4,105 3,763 JULY 3,826 4,652 4,296 5,540 4,581 AUGUST 4,639 4,911 3,334 4,539 4,831 SEPTEMBER 3,345 4,645 4,114 3,418 4,539 OCTOBER 5,785 4,489 6,232 4,953 4,985 NOVEMBER 4,926 4,628 5,672 6,151 7,502 DECEMBER 3,908 5,315 4,677 5,314 5,516 48,810 50,112 51,177 52,152 55,498 +12,25%* +2,66% +2,12% +1,09%** +6,41% TOTAL PERCENT 2004 13,449 * Increase over previous year (2000) which total was of 43,481 mt. ** Increase over 2003 year Imports of pepper to US have decreased from 16,053 MT to 13,449 MT in the first five months of the calendar year. Imports fall mostly due to higher prevailing market prices and also indicating global shortage of the commodity Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. It's a Topsy, Turvy World! In 1987 market reached briefly U$D 5,000 after a 2 years evolution and was back in some 5 years, to reach the lowest level in recent history - U$D 1,000/ mt in 1992. In 1998 was a similar move and finalization - U$D 1,200 /mt in 2002. YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 AVERAGE PRICE $3,500 $4,700 $5,000 $3,500 $2,500 1992 $1,000 YEAR 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 AVERAGE PRICE $3,250 $4,750 $5,200 $3,500 $2,200 2002 $1,200 The big difference is that this year, 2002, was the beginning of the Vietnam Era. Ventura Commodities Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: Dhannur “E”, 15, Sir P.M. Road, Mumbai – 400 001; +91 22 2266 0969. This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell commodities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the commodities mentioned in their articles. Neither Ventura Commodities Pvt. Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private contribution. Saturday, July 14, 2007 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz