ADDRESSING SEA LEVEL RISE FOR THE TREASURE ISLAND DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Project Background ! Treasure Island is a man­made island in the middle of San Francisco Bay ! Development plans for Treasure Island and Yerba Buena Island include 6,000 to 8,000 new homes, up to 500 hotel rooms, a 400­slip marina, restaurants, retail and entertainment venues, and nearly 300 acres of parks and open space. California Sea Level Rise Assessment report. This December 2010 report would advise how California communities should plan for sea level rise SLR estimates in published literature and policy papers vary widely The BCDC in a recently released study recommended that Bayfront developments address 16­inch SLR by 2050 (mid­term) and a 55­inch SLR value by 2100 (long­term). The California State Coastal Conservancy (SCC) v
has issued a similar guidance policy , based on work by the California Climate Change vi
Center ! An observed occurrence of 8­inches over the i
last century City and County of San Francisco has not issued planning guidance for sea level rise SLR Strategy for Treasure Island State of Sea Level Rise Discussions ! ! iv
! ! Up to 33­inches over next century based on ii
IPCC high estimates ! High­resolution global altimetry data through the end of 2009 suggest that in the last two decades global mean sea level has increased at a rate close to the upper end of the IPCC projections, corresponding to an increase of 10 inches by 2050 and 30 inches by 2100 ! Semi­empirical studies by Rahmstorf and others have stated that SLR over the next 100 years could be substantially higher ­ as much as 55­inches by 2100 iii
! 55­inches estimate was adopted by the CALFED Independent Science Board as a plausible/high, value. ! State Executive Order S­13­08 directs the California Resources Agency to request that the National Academy of Sciences convene an independent panel to complete the first ! ANALYZE the specific site conditions at Treasure Island related to tides, wind­wave and storm­wave. A SLR study prepared by vii
Moffatt & Nichol was based on an exhaustive review of the literature and guidance from regional agencies, and extensive modeling of tidal, wind­wave, and storm­wave processes for the Central Bay ! CONSTRUCT flood protection for the mid­to­
long term (2075 – 2125) ! ENABLE an Adaptive Management Strategy for the long­to­very long term (2100 and beyond) The 4 separate components of this strategy are: 1. Construct building pads and vital infrastructure at elevations 36­inches higher than the present day 100­yr return period water level in the Bay, and add a 6­inch freeboard for finish­floor elevations of Treasure Island Sea Level Rise Strategy Page 2 of 2 buildings. ! Buildings and transportation infrastructure would not be flooded for water levels 36 inches higher than current Base Flood Elevation, with habitable structures higher by another 6 inches, putting it beyond the 2080 time frame according to the most aggressive sea level rise, and well beyond 2100 according to the highest IPCC projection. 2. Construct the storm drainage system to be gravity­drained for SLR up to 16 inches and pumped thereafter 3. Build a shoreline protection system to accommodate a mid­term rise in sea level of 16­inches, with development setbacks to allow for adaptation for higher SLR ! It is not practical to build a high wall around the project for a design condition that may not happen for several decades, because it would pose a visual obstruction and severely limit public access. 4. Establish an Adaptive Management Strategy with a long­term funding mechanism to protect against at least 55 inches of SLR, and even higher. ! The Adaptive Management Strategy will define specific triggers for action, based on observed changes in sea level. ! Should sea level rise 16 inches, the shoreline edge could be raised to mitigate more frequent wave overtopping and storm drain pumps installed embankments of increasing heights away from the water. Land between sets of embankments can hold periodic wave overtopping that drain out between high tides while creating habitat c. Constructing sea walls – particularly at the ferry quay and along Clipper Cove where they would also function as a public amenity d. Laying back the shoreline to create cobblestone beaches to limit wave runup and overtopping, creating accessible public amenities References i
Moffatt & Nichol, Treasure Island Development Project, Planning For Sea Level Rise, Part I – Background and Projections, prepared for Treasure Island Community Development, July 2008 ii
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press. iii
Rahmstorf, S., 2007: A Semi­Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea­Level Rise. Science Magazine 315, pp. 368­370 iv
! Should sea level rise 36 inches, the shoreline protection system could be hardened to act as a flood barrier (levee or floodwall) for the entire island San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, Living With A Rising Bay, Vulnerability and Adaptation in San Francisco Bay and on its Shoreline April 2009 ! Development setback distances and funding will enable a variety of future modifications along the shoreline protection system to accommodate at least SLR of 55­inches, and even higher if necessary. v
! Shoreline modifications would likely include a combination of the following strategies depending on desired open space uses and wave runup characteristics at different locations around the island: a. Raising the shoreline edge embankment in place to function as a storm surge or flood barrier b. Constructing a series of Prepared By Treasure Island Community Development
California State Coastal Conservancy. Policy Statement on Climate Change. Adopted at the June 4, 2009 Board Meeting vi
Cayan, D., M. Tyree, M. Dettinger, H. Hidalgo, T. Das, E. Maurer, P. Bromirski, N. Graham, and R. Flick. 2009. Sea Level Rise Estimates for the California 2009 Climate Change Scenarios Assessment. California Climate Change Center Report No. CEC­500­2009­014­F, August 2009 vii
Moffatt & Nichol, Treasure Island Development Project, Coastal Flooding Study, prepared for Treasure Island Community Development, April 2009 Treasure Island Sea Level Rise Strategy Treasure Island
Adaptation Strategy For Sea Level Rise
ADAPTIVE APPROACH WITH
POTENTIAL HABITAT
ESTABLISH PROJECT GENERATED FUNDING MECHANISM
ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT AREAS
WIDE SETBACKS
ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES AT PERIMETER
Treasure Island
Adaptation Strategy For Sea Level Rise
Development Setback + Institutional Framework + Funding Mechanism =
Plenty of Options
A New San Francisco Neighborhood …
A Regional Destination
Planning For Sea Level Rise
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Part I - Background And Projections
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“The board recommends that planning efforts use three approaches to incorporate sea
level rise uncertainty.
First, given the inability of current physical models to accurately simulate historic and
future sea level rise, until future model refinements are available, it is prudent to use
existing empirically-based models for short to medium term planning purposes. The
most recent empirical models project a midrange rise this century of 70-100 cm (28-39
in.) with a full range of variability of 50-140 cm (20-55 in.). It is important to acknowledge
that these empirical models also do not include dynamical instability of ice sheets and
likely underestimate long term sea level rise.
Secondly we recommend adopting a concept that the scientific and engineering
community has been advocating for flood management for some time. This involves
developing a system that can not only withstand a design sea level rise, but also
minimizes damages and loss of life for low-probability events or unforeseen
circumstances that exceed design standards.
Finally, the board recommends the specific incorporation of the potential for higher-thanexpected sea level rise rates into long term infrastructure planning and design. In this
way, options that can be efficiently adapted to the potential for significantly higher sea
level rise over the next century will be favored over those that use "fixed" targets for
design.”
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Planning For Sea Level Rise
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+'/!4/CC!E/(+,4/E!()+-!()/!+(F&CI)/'/P&L/+-!T/-/'+4!L,'L54+(,&-!F&E/4C!N8e\6*CO!5C/E!
,-!()/!8]:M!
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()/'/!,C!+!@'&+E!CL,/-(,Q,L!L&-C/-C5C!()+(!()/=!+'/!R/44!+-E!S5+-(,(+(,H/4=!5-E/'C(&&EM!B)+(!,C0!
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C/+!4/H/4!',C/M!D-!I+'(,L54+'0!()/!I'&f/L(,&-C!E&!-&(!,-L45E/!I&(/-(,+44=!4+'T/!+-E!-&-4,-/+'!
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1
Planning For Sea Level Rise
Treasure Island Development Project
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'/I'/C/-(!+!R&'C(PL+C/!CL/-+',&M!Z&R/H/'0!()/!CL,/-(,Q,L!L&FF5-,(=!T/-/'+44=!)+C!-&(!
+((/FI(/E!Q5'()/'!C=-()/C,C!&Q!()/!)5T/!'+-T/!&Q!+H+,4+@4/!F&E/4C!+-E!I&(/-(,+4!L&-(',@5(,&-C!
(&!Q5(5'/!C/+!4/H/4!',C/0!C&!()+(!Q/R!)+'E!-5F/',L+4!I'/E,L(,&-C!&Q!(&(+4!C/+!4/H/4!',C/!)+H/!@//-!
I5@4,C)/E!,-!()/!I//'P'/H,/R/E!4,(/'+(5'/!C,-L/!E,CC/F,-+(,&-!&Q!()/!8]:M!
C. Rahmstorf, 2007
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/S5,4,@',5F!(/FI/'+(5'/A!
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dt
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I'/H,&5C!/S5,4,@',5F!(/FI/'+(5'/!H+45/0!+-E!a!,C!+-!/FI,',L+44=!E/',H/E!I'&I&'(,&-+4,(=!
L&-C(+-(M!]+)FC(&'Q!Q,(C!(),C!4,-/+'!'/4+(,&-C),I!R,()!+H+,4+@4/!&@C/'H+(,&-C!&Q!T4&@+4!C/+!4/H/4!
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L&-C(+-(0!R),L)!+44&RC!),F!(&!5C/!()/!(/FI/'+(5'/!I'&f/L(,&-C!Q'&F!()/!D[66kC!"##$!Third
Assessment Report!NB8]O!(&!I'&f/L(!Q5(5'/!C/+!4/H/4!',C/M!8-!,-L'/+C/!&Q!X#P$##!LF!N">P19!
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/FI,',L+4!+II'&+L)M!D-!+EE,(,&-0!I5@4,C)/E!L&FF/-(C!&-!(),C!I+I/'!)+H/!+'T5/E!()+(!,(!
F,C5C/C!C(+(,C(,L+4!F/()&EC!N'/Q/'/-L/C!1!+-E!:OM!Z&R/H/'0!,(!)+C!@//-!R,E/4=!S5&(/E!@=!
+5()&'C0!I+'(,L54+'4=!,-!()/!I4+--,-T!+-E!I&4,L=!Q,/4EC0!R)&!+'/!L',(,L+4!&Q!()/!D[66kC!Q&L5C!&-!
CL,/-(,Q,L!L&-C/-C5CM!
D. California Climate Change Center, 2006
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a-,H/'C,(=!&Q!6+4,Q&'-,+!+(!V/'7/4/=M!B)/!6666!'/I&'(!&-!C/+!4/H/4!',C/!R+C!@+C/E!&-!()/!
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Z&R/H/'0!+(!()/!(,F/!()/!6666!'/I&'(!R+C!I5@4,C)/E0!()/!8]:!'/I&'(!R+C!,-!I'/I+'+(,&-!+-E!
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()/'F+4!/UI+-C,&-!R+C!L&FI4/(/!Q&'!&-4=!+!C5@C/(!&Q!()/!/F,CC,&-C!CL/-+',&C0!+-E!()/!
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B)/!6666!'/I&'(!5C/E!+EE,(,&-+4!F&E/4C!N/MTM0!'/Q/'/-L/!;O!(&!E/H/4&I!+!Q544!'+-T/!&Q!
/C(,F+(/C!&Q!/5C(+(,L!C/+!4/H/4!',C/M!B)/!'/C54(C!N"#P>#!LF!&'!>P1$!,-L)/C!@/(R//-!"###!+-E!
:
Planning For Sea Level Rise
Treasure Island Development Project
"$##O!+'/!C,F,4+'!(&!()&C/!,-!()/!8]:!'/I&'(M!\,H/-!()+(!()/!8]:!'/I&'(!)+C!-&R!@//-!
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C5I/'C/E/EM!
B)/!6666!'/I&'(!T&/C!&-!(&!E,CL5CC!()/!I&(/-(,+4!,FI4,L+(,&-C!&Q!C/+!4/H/4!',C/!Q&'!
/U+L/'@+(,-T!C(&'F!/QQ/L(C!N/MTM0!),T)!C5'Q!L&F@,-/E!R,()!),T)!(,E/CO!+-E!&-!()/!G/4(+!4/H//CM!!
B),C!E,CL5CC,&-!5C/C!+-!,445C('+(,H/!C/+!4/H/4!',C/!,-L'/+C/!&Q!1#!LF!N$"!,-L)/CO!,-!()/!"$C(!
L/-(5'=M!B),C!,445C('+(,H/!H+45/!4,/C!R,(),-!()/!'+-T/!I5@4,C)/E!,-!()/!8]:0!C&!()+(!()/!6666!
'/I&'(!'/F+,-C!L5''/-(!,-!,(C!E,CL5CC,&-!&Q!,FI4,L+(,&-CM!
E. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001
B)/!B),'E!8CC/CCF/-(!]/I&'(!NB8]O!&Q!()/!D[660!4,7/!()/!Q&5'()0!,C!+!E/(+,4/E!C=-()/C,C!&Q!()/!
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L&-(',@5(,&-C!(&!C/+!4/H/4!',C/!+'/!-&(!,-L45E/E!5-4/CC!()/'/!,C!@'&+E!+T'//F/-(!()+(!()/=!+'/!
S5+-(,(+(,H/4=!5-E/'C(&&EM!!
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8C!R,()!()/!:8]0!()/!4+'T/C(!L&-(',@5(,&-!(&!()/!5-L/'(+,-(=!,C!+CC&L,+(/E!R,()!F&E/4,-T!
5-L/'(+,-(,/C0!+-E!,-!I+'(,L54+'!R,()!()/!I&(/-(,+4!Q&'!E=-+F,L!,L/!C)//(!,-C(+@,4,(=M!B)/!3/C(!
8-(+'L(,L!DL/!.)//(!N38D.O!,C!I+'(,L54+'4=!L+44/E!&5(!,-!'/T+'E!(&!5-L/'(+,-(=M!
F. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1995
B)/!Q&L5C!&Q!(),C!'/I&'(!,C!&-!+-!/UI4,L,(!I'&@+@,4,C(,L!+CC/CCF/-(!&Q!E,QQ/'/-(!C/+!4/H/4!',C/!
CL/-+',&C!Q&'!()/!"$C(!L/-(5'=M!B)/!'/I&'(!@+C/C!,(C!F&E/4,-T!&-!/+'4,/'!D[66!R&'7!N'/Q/'/-L/C!
2!+-E!XO0!+-E!L'/+(/C!+!C,FI4,Q,/E!F&E/4!()+(!L+I(5'/C!()/!E/I/-E/-L/!&Q!()/!D[66!I'&f/L(,&-C!
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4,(/'+(5'/!'/H,/R!+-E!@=!E,CL5CC,&-!R,()!+!iG/4I),Lj!I+-/4!&Q!/UI/'(!'/H,/R/'CM!J,-+44=0!()'&5T)!
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Q5(5'/!C/+!4/H/4!',C/!NCI/L,Q,L+44=0!()/!,-L'/+C/!,-!C/+!4/H/4!',C/!'/4+(,H/!(&!+-!,-L'/+C/!+(!()/!
L5''/-(!'+(/OM!]/C54(C!+'/!T,H/-!@&()!Q&'!+!F,U!&Q!()/!Q5(5'/!/F,CC,&-C!CL/-+',&C!5C/E!@=!()/!
D[66!,-!$99#0!+-E!Q&'!/+L)!/F,CC,&-!CL/-+',&M!!
B)/!'/I&'(!,C!L+'/Q54!(&!C(+(/!()+(A!
“our probability estimates are not based on statistics. Our estimates simply convey what
the probability of various rates of sea level rise would be if one is willing to assume that
the experts we polled are each equally wise and that their collective wisdom reflects the
best available knowledge […] Our projections are less like a statistical weather forecast
and more like handicapping a horse race”
B)/!;!(&!9;!I/'L/-(!'+-T/!Q&'!()/!T4&@+4!+H/'+T/!C/+!4/H/4!',C/0!+CC5F,-T!()/!L5''/-(!T4&@+4!
+H/'+T/!C/+!4/H/4!',C/!,C!()/!L/-('+4!H+45/!&Q!$M>!FFl=/+'!T,H/-!,-!()/!8]:0!,C!$:!LF!(&!>2!LF!
N;!(&!1:!,-L)/CO!@/(R//-!$99#!+-E!"$##M!B)/!$!(&!99!I/'L/-(!'+-T/!N()/!R,E/C(!'+-T/!
'/I&'(/EO!,C!P:!LF!(&!m$$"!LF!NP"!(&!m::!,-L)/COM!
G. National Research Council, 1987
B)/!Q&L5C!&Q!(),C!E&L5F/-(!,C!&-!()/!+-(,L,I+(/E!/QQ/L(C!&Q!C/+!4/H/4!',C/!+-E!()/!
'/L&FF/-E/E!'/CI&-C/CM!B)/!'/I&'(!E&/C!-&(!F+7/!CI/L,Q,L!I'&f/L(,&-C!&Q!C/+!4/H/4!',C/A!
;
Planning For Sea Level Rise
Treasure Island Development Project
'+()/'0!,(!+E&I(C!()'//!I4+5C,@4/!L&-E,(,&-C!&Q!;#!LF0!$##!LF0!+-E!$;#!LF!@=!"$##!N"#0!190!+-E!
;9!,-L)/COM!!
DISCUSSION
B)/!I'&f/L(,&-C!&Q!C/+!4/H/4!',C/!T,H/-!,-!E&L5F/-(C!8!()'&5T)!\!+'/!(=I,L+44=!Q&'!()/!I/',&E!
$99#!()'&5T)!N+II'&U,F+(/4=O!()/!/-E!&Q!()/!"$C(!L/-(5'=M!\,H/-!()+(!-/+'4=!"#!=/+'C!)+H/!
I+CC/E!C,-L/!()/!@/T,--,-T!&Q!(),C!I/',&E0!+-!&@H,&5C!S5/C(,&-!,CA!do we have enough data to
distinguish between the projectionsn!a-Q&'(5-+(/4=0!()/!+-CR/'!,C!-&A!+!F+f&'!'/+C&-!,C!()+(!
E/L+E+4PCL+4/!H+',+(,&-C!,-!L4,F+(/0!C5L)!+C!()/!%&'()!8(4+-(,L!eCL,44+(,&-!N%8eO!+-E!()/!
[+L,Q,L!G/L+E+4!eCL,44+(,&-!N[GeO0!(/-E!(&!F+C7!4&-TP(/'F!L)+-T/C!,-!T4&@+4!(/FI/'+(5'/!+-E!
C/+!4/H/4M!8!C/L&-E+'=!'/+C&-!,C!()+(!()/!I'&f/L(,&-C!(=I,L+44=!C)&R!+-!+LL/4/'+(,&-!,-!C/+!
4/H/4!',C/!()'&5T)!()/!"$C(!L/-(5'=!g!()/!E,QQ/'/-L/C!E&!-&(!@/T,-!(&!@/!C,T-,Q,L+-(!5-(,4!F,EP
L/-(5'=M!
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C/4/L(!+!C/(!&Q!C/+!4/H/4!',C/!I'&f/L(,&-CM!3/!)+H/!(R&!L&FF/-(C!&-!(),C!C/4/L(,&-M!J,'C(0!,(!,C!
,FI&'(+-(!(&!E,C(,-T5,C)!@/(R//-!CL,/-(,Q,L!I'&f/L(,&-C!NC5L)!+C!()&C/!,-!E&L5F/-(C!V!+-E!60!
I'/I+'/E!@=!()/!D[66!+-E!@=!]+)FC(&'QO!+-E!,445C('+(,H/!L+C/C!NC5L)!+C!()&C/!,-!()/!
E&L5F/-(!\0!@=!()/!%]6OM!!
./L&-E0!()/!CL,/-L/!&Q!L4,F+(/!L)+-T/!+-E!C/+!4/H/4!',C/!,C!/H&4H,-T!+-E!,FI'&H,-TM!B),C!E&/C!
-&(!-/L/CC+',4=!4/+E!(&!+!-+''&R/'!CI'/+E!&Q!I'&f/L(,&-C!&H/'!(,F/M!J&'!/U+FI4/0!,L/!C)//(!
E=-+F,LC!,C!+!H/'=!+L(,H/!'/C/+'L)!Q,/4E!N/MTM0!'/Q/'/-L/C!>!+-E!9OA!,FI'&H,-T!F/+C5'/F/-(!
(/L)-,S5/C!L&54E!I&(/-(,+44=!),T)4,T)(!-/R!F/L)+-,CFC!()+(!R/'/!-&(!I'/H,&5C4=!5-E/'C(&&EM!
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()+-!()&C/!F+E/!/+'4,/'M!J&'!/U+FI4/0!E&L5F/-(!G0!()/!"##2!6666!'/I&'(!R+C!I'/I+'/E!
5C,-T!,-(/',F!'/C54(C!&Q!()/!"##X!8]:!R),L)!+'/!/QQ/L(,H/4=!C5I/'C/E/E!@=!()/!Q,-+4!H/'C,&-!&Q!
()+(!E&L5F/-(M!B),C!,C!-&(!+!L',(,L,CF!&Q!(),C!'/I&'(0!+-E!,(!E&/C!-&(!C5TT/C(!()+(!()/!I4+--,-T!
'/L&FF/-E+(,&-C!@+C/E!&-!()&C/!,-(/',F!'/C54(C!C)&54E!@/!'/f/L(/EA!)&R/H/'0!,(!,C!'/L&T-,(,&-!
()+(!CL,/-L/!I'&T'/CC/CM!.,F,4+'4=0!()/!$99;!K[8!'/I&'(!R+C!@+C/E!&-!D[66!I'&f/L(,&-C!Q'&F!
()/!/+'4=!$99#C!g!R),L)!)+H/!@//-!C5I/'C/E/E!@=!()/!"##$!B8]!+-E!()/!"##X!8]:M!3/!
()/'/Q&'/!Q&L5C!&-!()/!F&C(!'/L/-(!E&L5F/-(C!V!ND[66!8]:O!+-E!6!N]+)FC(&'QkC!C/F,P
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IMPLICATIONS FOR TREASURE ISLAND
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2
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X
Planning For Sea Level Rise
Treasure Island Development Project
REFERENCES
$M! eII/-)/,F/'0!*M0!VM6M!ek%/,440!*M!3/@C(/'!+-E!.M!8T'+R+4+0!"##XM!Climate Change: The
Limits of ConsensusM!.L,/-L/!3170!IIM!$;#;P$;#2M!
"M! ]+)FC(&'Q0!.M0!8M!6+W/-+H/0!<M8M!6)5'L)0!<MKM!Z+-C/-0!]MJM!`//4,-T0!GMKM![+'7/'0!+-E!
]M6M<M!.&F/'H,44/0!"##XM!Recent Climate Observations Compared to ProjectionsM!.L,/-L/!
3160!IM!X#9M!
1M! Z&4T+(/0!.M0!.M!</H'/f/H+0![M!3&&ER&'()0!+-E!.M!V'/R/'0!"##XM!Comment on “A SemiEmpirial Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise”M!.L,/-L/!3170!IM$>22@M!
:M! .L)F,()0!BM0!.M!<&)+-C/-0!+-E![M!B)/f440!"##XM!Comment on “A Semi-Empirical Approach
to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise”M!.L,/-L/!3170!IM$>22LM!
;M! Z54F/0!*M0!.M6MVM!]+I/'0!+-E!BM*MYM!3,T4/=0!$99;M!An Integrated Framework to Address
Climate Change (ESCAPE) and Further Developments of the Global and Regional Climate
Modules (MAGICC)M!K-/'T=![&4,L=!230!IIM!1:XP1;;M!
2M! D-(/'T&H/'-F/-(+4![+-/4!&-!64,F+(/!6)+-T/M!$99#M!Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific
AssessmentM!6+F@',ET/!+-E!%/R!b&'7A!6+F@',ET/!a-,H/'C,(=!['/CCM!
XM! D-(/'T&H/'-F/-(+4![+-/4!&-!64,F+(/!6)+-T/M!$99"M!64,F+(/!6)+-T/!$99"M!The
Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific AssessmentM!6+F@',ET/!+-E!%/R!b&'7A!
6+F@',ET/!a-,H/'C,(=!['/CCM!
>M! ],T-&(0!KM0!+-E![M!`+-+T+'+(-+F0!"##2M!Changes in the Velocity Structure of the
Greenland Ice Sheet.!.L,/-L/!*+T+W,-/!3110!IIM!9>2P99#M!
9M! eH/'I/L70!<M0!VM!e((&PV4,/C-/'0!\M!*,44/'0!GM!*5)C0!]M!844/=0!+-E!<M!`,/)40!"##2M!
Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level RiseM!.L,/-L/!
*+T+W,-/!3110!IIM!$X:P$X;#M!
>
Sea Level Rise Projections
Current Peer-Reviewed Literature
Curves show increases based on current peerreviewed literature; detailed curve shapes by M&N
Additional ranges in 2100 are from superseded
analyses or published illustrative values.
IPCC AR4 High Ranges, All Scenarios
IPCC AR4 Low Ranges, All Scenarios
Rahmstorf High w/Uncertainty
Rahmstorf Best-Fit High
Rahmstorf Best-Fit Low
Rahmstorf Low w/Uncertainty
CCCC (2006) - 2100 Range
IPCC TAR (2001) - 2100 Range
USEPA (1995) - 2100 Range (5% to 95%)
NRC (1987) - Illustrative 2100 Range
Current Trend
80
70
Rahmstorf (2007)
upper limit recommended by CALFED
Increase (inches)
60
50
40
3 feet allowance for future SLR
30
20
10
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
Year
7/3/2008
Figure 1