JNEUROSCI.2164-16.2017.full

This Accepted Manuscript has not been copyedited and formatted. The final version may differ from this version.
Research Articles: Cellular/Molecular
Neuronal chloride regulation via KCC2 is modulated through a GABAB receptor
protein complex
Rebecca Wright1,4, Sarah E. Newey1,4, Andrei Ilie1, Winnie Wefelmeyer1, Joseph V. Raimondo1, Rachel Ginham2, R.
A. Jeffrey Mcllhinney2 and Colin J. Akerman1
1
Department of Pharmacology, University of Oxford, Mansfield Road, Oxford, OX1 3QT, UK
2
MRC Anatomical Neuropharmacology Unit, Mansfield Road, Oxford, OX1 3TH, UK
DOI: 10.1523/JNEUROSCI.2164-16.2017
Received: 6 July 2016
Revised: 31 March 2017
Accepted: 6 April 2017
Published: 27 April 2017
Author contributions: R.W., S.N., A.I., R.J.M., and C.J.A. designed research; R.W., S.N., A.I., W.W., J.V.R.,
and R.J.M. performed research; R.W., S.N., A.I., W.W., J.V.R., R.J.M., and C.J.A. analyzed data; R.W., S.N.,
A.I., R.J.M., and C.J.A. wrote the paper; R.D. contributed unpublished reagents/analytic tools.
4
These authors contributed equally to this work
We would like to thank Piotr Bregestovski (INMED, Marseille) for the generous gift of Cl-Sensor cDNA, Demelza
Vinnicombe for technical assistance and Julia White for her support and help. This work was supported by
grants from the Medical Research Council (G0601503) and the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research
Council (BB/E0154761). The research leading to these results has received funding from the European
Research Council under the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013), ERC
grant agreement number 243273. In addition, RW, AI and WW were supported by Wellcome Trust Doctoral
Fellowships, SEN was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship, JVR was supported by the
Rhodes Trust, RG was supported by a GlaxoSmitKline Studentship and RAJM was supported by the Medical
Research Council.
Correspondence: [email protected] +44 (0)1865 271872
Cite as: J. Neurosci ; 10.1523/JNEUROSCI.2164-16.2017
Alerts: Sign up at www.jneurosci.org/cgi/alerts to receive customized email alerts when the fully formatted
version of this article is published.
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium provided that the original
work is properly attributed.
Accepted manuscripts are peer-reviewed but have not been through the copyediting, formatting, or proofreading
process.
Copyright © 2017 Wright et al.
ϭ
1HXURQDOFKORULGHUHJXODWLRQYLD.&&LVPRGXODWHGWKURXJKD
Ϯ
*$%$%UHFHSWRUSURWHLQFRPSOH[
ϯ
ϰ
ϱ
$XWKRUV5HEHFFD:ULJKW6DUDK(1HZH\$QGUHL,OLH:LQQLH:HIHOPH\HU-RVHSK
ϲ
95DLPRQGR5DFKHO*LQKDP5$-HIIUH\0FOOKLQQH\&ROLQ-$NHUPDQ
ϳ
ϴ
ϵ
'HSDUWPHQWRI3KDUPDFRORJ\8QLYHUVLW\RI2[IRUG0DQVILHOG5RDG2[IRUG2;478.
ϭϬ
05&$QDWRPLFDO1HXURSKDUPDFRORJ\8QLW0DQVILHOG5RDG2[IRUG2;7+8.
ϭϭ
ϭϮ
&RUUHVSRQGHQFHFROLQDNHUPDQ#SKDUPR[DFXN
7KHVHDXWKRUVFRQWULEXWHGHTXDOO\WRWKLVZRUN
ϭϯ
ϭϰ
ϭϱ
ϭϲ
$EEUHYLDWHGWLWOH)XQFWLRQDODVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQ*$%$%DQG.&&
ϭϳ
1XPEHURIILJXUHV1XPEHURIWDEOHV
ϭϴ
1XPEHURISDJHV
ϭϵ
1XPEHURIZRUGV$EVWUDFW,QWURGXFWLRQ'LVFXVVLRQ
ϮϬ
Ϯϭ
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
ϮϮ
Ϯϯ
Ϯϰ
Ϯϱ
Ϯϲ
Ϯϳ
Ϯϴ
Ϯϵ
ϯϬ
ϯϭ
ϯϮ
:H ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN 3LRWU %UHJHVWRYVNL ,10(' 0DUVHLOOH IRU WKH JHQHURXV JLIW RI &O
6HQVRUF'1$'HPHO]D9LQQLFRPEHIRUWHFKQLFDODVVLVWDQFHDQG-XOLD:KLWHIRUKHUVXSSRUW
DQG KHOS 7KLV ZRUN ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ JUDQWV IURP WKH 0HGLFDO 5HVHDUFK &RXQFLO
* DQG WKH %LRWHFKQRORJ\ DQG %LRORJLFDO 6FLHQFHV 5HVHDUFK &RXQFLO
%%( 7KH UHVHDUFK OHDGLQJ WR WKHVH UHVXOWV KDV UHFHLYHG IXQGLQJ IURP WKH
(XURSHDQ 5HVHDUFK &RXQFLO XQGHU WKH (XURSHDQ &RPPXQLW\
V 6HYHQWK )UDPHZRUN
3URJUDPPH )3 (5& JUDQW DJUHHPHQW QXPEHU ,Q DGGLWLRQ 5: $,
DQG::ZHUHVXSSRUWHGE\:HOOFRPH7UXVW'RFWRUDO)HOORZVKLSV6(1ZDVVXSSRUWHGE\D
5R\DO 6RFLHW\ 'RURWK\ +RGJNLQ )HOORZVKLS -95 ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH 5KRGHV 7UXVW 5*
ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ D *OD[R6PLW.OLQH 6WXGHQWVKLS DQG 5$-0 ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH 0HGLFDO
5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO
ϯϯ
ϭ
ϯϰ
$EVWUDFW
ϯϱ
*$%$% UHFHSWRUV DUH *SURWHLQ FRXSOHG UHFHSWRUV WKDW PHGLDWH LQKLELWRU\ V\QDSWLF DFWLRQV
ϯϲ
WKURXJKDVHULHVRIGRZQVWUHDPWDUJHWSURWHLQV,WLVLQFUHDVLQJO\DSSUHFLDWHGWKDWWKH*$%$%
ϯϳ
UHFHSWRU IRUPV SDUW RI ODUJHU VLJQDOOLQJ FRPSOH[HV ZKLFK HQDEOH WKH UHFHSWRU WR PHGLDWH
ϯϴ
PXOWLSOHGLIIHUHQWHIIHFWVZLWKLQQHXURQV+HUHZHUHSRUWWKDW*$%$%UHFHSWRUVFDQSK\VLFDOO\
ϯϵ
DVVRFLDWH ZLWK WKH SRWDVVLXPFKORULGH FRWUDQVSRUWHU SURWHLQ .&& ZKLFK VHWV WKH GULYLQJ
ϰϬ
IRUFH IRU WKH FKORULGH SHUPHDEOH LRQRWURSLF *$%$$ UHFHSWRU LQ PDWXUH QHXURQV 8VLQJ
ϰϭ
ELRFKHPLFDO PROHFXODU DQG IXQFWLRQDO VWXGLHV LQ URGHQW KLSSRFDPSXV ZH VKRZ WKDW
ϰϮ
DFWLYDWLRQRI*$%$%UHFHSWRUVUHVXOWV LQDGHFUHDVH LQ.&&IXQFWLRQZKLFK LVDVVRFLDWHG
ϰϯ
ZLWK D UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH SURWHLQ DW WKH FHOO VXUIDFH 7KHVH ILQGLQJV UHYHDO D QRYHO µFURVVWDON¶
ϰϰ
EHWZHHQWKH*$%$UHFHSWRUV\VWHPVZKLFKFDQEHUHFUXLWHGXQGHUFRQGLWLRQVRIKLJK*$%$
ϰϱ
UHOHDVHDQGZKLFKFRXOGEHLPSRUWDQWIRUWKHUHJXODWLRQRILQKLELWRU\V\QDSWLFWUDQVPLVVLRQ
ϰϲ
ϰϳ
ϰϴ
6LJQLILFDQFH6WDWHPHQW
ϰϵ
6\QDSWLF LQKLELWLRQLQWKHEUDLQLV PHGLDWHGE\LRQRWURSLF*$%$$UHFHSWRUV*$%$$5VDQG
ϱϬ
PHWDERWURSLF*$%$%UHFHSWRUV*$%$%5V7RIXOO\DSSUHFLDWHWKHIXQFWLRQDQGUHJXODWLRQRI
ϱϭ
WKHVHQHXURWUDQVPLWWHUUHFHSWRUVZHPXVWXQGHUVWDQGWKHLULQWHUDFWLRQVZLWKRWKHUSURWHLQV
ϱϮ
:H GHVFULEH D QRYHO DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH *$%$%5 DQG WKH SRWDVVLXPFKORULGH
ϱϯ
FRWUDQVSRUWHU SURWHLQ .&& 7KLV DVVRFLDWLRQ LV VLJQLILFDQW EHFDXVH .&& VHWV WKH
ϱϰ
LQWUDFHOOXODU FKORULGH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ IRXQG LQ PDWXUH QHXURQV DQG WKHUHE\ HVWDEOLVKHV WKH
ϱϱ
GULYLQJIRUFHIRUWKHFKORULGHSHUPHDEOH*$%$$5:HGHPRQVWUDWHWKDW*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQ
ϱϲ
FDQUHJXODWH.&&DWWKHFHOOVXUIDFHLQDPDQQHUWKDWDOWHUVLQWUDFHOOXODUFKORULGHDQGWKH
ϱϳ
UHYHUVDOSRWHQWLDOIRUWKH*$%$$52XUGDWDWKHUHIRUHVXSSRUWVDQDGGLWLRQDOPHFKDQLVPE\
ϱϴ
ZKLFK*$%$%5VDUHDEOHWRPRGXODWHIDVWV\QDSWLFLQKLELWLRQ
ϱϵ
Ϯ
ϲϬ
,QWURGXFWLRQ
ϲϭ
*$%$HUJLFV\QDSWLFLQKLELWLRQLVPHGLDWHGE\WZRPDMRUUHFHSWRUV\VWHPVLRQRWURSLF*$%$$
ϲϮ
UHFHSWRUV *$%$$5V DQG PHWDERWURSLF *$%$% UHFHSWRUV *$%$%5V *$%$$5V UHO\ RQ
ϲϯ
WUDQVPHPEUDQHFKORULGHJUDGLHQWVWRJHQHUDWHIDVWLQKLELWRU\V\QDSWLFFXUUHQWV.DLOD
ϲϰ
3D\QH HW DO *$%$%5V LQ FRQWUDVW JHQHUDWH VORZHU LQKLELWRU\ DFWLRQV YLD WKH
ϲϱ
DFWLYDWLRQ RI JXDQLQH QXFOHRWLGHELQGLQJ SURWHLQ *SURWHLQ VLJQDOOLQJ SDWKZD\V %HWWOHU HW
ϲϲ
DO
ϲϳ
,W LV EHFRPLQJ LQFUHDVLQJO\ FOHDU WKDW WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH IXQFWLRQ DQG UHJXODWLRQ RI
ϲϴ
*$%$%5V UHTXLUHV D PRUH FRPSOHWH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH PROHFXODU DVVRFLDWLRQV WKDW
ϲϵ
XQGHUOLH*$%$%5FRPSOH[HVLQWKHEUDLQ)RULQVWDQFHUHFHQWSURWHRPLFDSSURDFKHVKDYH
ϳϬ
LGHQWLILHG DX[LOLDU\ VXEXQLW SURWHLQV WKDW PRGXODWH WKH UHFHSWRU¶V DJRQLVW UHVSRQVH DQG
ϳϭ
NLQHWLFVRI*SURWHLQVLJQDOOLQJ6FKZHQNHWDO*$%$%5FRPSOH[HVFDQDOVRLQFOXGH
ϳϮ
SURWHLQVWKDWDUHWKHGRZQVWUHDPWDUJHWVIROORZLQJDJRQLVWDFWLYDWLRQRIWKHUHFHSWRU3DUNHW
ϳϯ
DO &LUXHOD HW DO E DQG SURWHLQV WKDW DUH ZHOOSODFHG WR FRQWURO WKH UHFHSWRU¶V
ϳϰ
GLPHUL]DWLRQRUGHVHQVLWLVDWLRQ&RXYHHWDO3RQWLHUHWDO7KHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRI
ϳϱ
PROHFXODU SDUWQHUV IRU WKH *$%$%5 KDV DOVR UHYHDOHG D ZLGHU UDQJH RI IXQFWLRQV 7KHVH
ϳϲ
LQFOXGH DVVRFLDWLRQV WKDWHQDEOH *$%$%5 VXEXQLWV WRUHJXODWH JHQH WUDQVFULSWLRQ :KLWH HW
ϳϳ
DO 1HKULQJ HW DO 9HUQRQ HW DO RU WKH LQWUDFHOOXODU WUDIILFNLQJ RI RWKHU
ϳϴ
PHPEUDQHSURWHLQV%R\HUHWDO)XUWKHUGLYHUVLW\LQ*$%$%5IXQFWLRQLVDOVROLNHO\WR
ϳϵ
UHODWHWRWKHWHPSRUDODQGVSDWLDOUHJXODWLRQRIWKHUHFHSWRU5HFHQWUHSRUWVKDYHLQGLFDWHG
ϴϬ
WKDWWKHUHF\FOLQJRI*$%$%5VDWWKHFHOOVXUIDFHLVG\QDPLFDQGFDQEHPRGXODWHGWKURXJK
ϴϭ
UHFHSWRU DFWLYDWLRQ FRPSRVLWLRQ SKRVSKRU\ODWLRQ RU GHJUDGDWLRQ )DLUID[ HW DO ϴϮ
*UDPSSHWDO*UDPSSHWDO9DUJDVHWDO*RQ]DOH]0DHVRHWDO
ϴϯ
/DIIUD\HWDO:LONLQVHWDO+DQQDQHWDO
ϴϰ
+HUHZHLGHQWLI\DQGLQYHVWLJDWHDQRYHODVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQSRVWV\QDSWLF*$%$%5V
ϴϱ
DQG WKH SRWDVVLXPFKORULGH FRWUDQVSRUWHU SURWHLQ .&& .&& FRQWULEXWHV WR WKH ORZ
ϴϲ
LQWUDFHOOXODU FKORULGH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV IRXQG LQ PDWXUH QHXURQV DQG WKXV HVWDEOLVKHV WKH
ϯ
ϴϳ
FRQGLWLRQV IRU WKH K\SHUSRODUL]LQJ HIIHFW RI *$%$$5V 5LYHUD HW DO )XUWKHUPRUH
ϴϴ
.&& LV D ORFXV IRU PRGXODWLQJ WKH VWUHQJWK RI IDVW V\QDSWLF LQKLELWLRQ 5DSLG FKDQJHV LQ
ϴϵ
.&&IXQFWLRQKDYHEHHQVKRZQWREHHOLFLWHGLQDQDFWLYLW\GHSHQGHQWIDVKLRQDQGLQYROYH
ϵϬ
GLIIHUHQWSRVWWUDQVODWLRQDOUHJXODWLRQRIWKHWUDQVSRUWHUSURWHLQLQFOXGLQJLWVSKRVSKRU\ODWLRQ
ϵϭ
VWDWHDQGUHJXODWLRQDWWKHFHOOVXUIDFH:RRGLQHWDO5LYHUDHWDO)LXPHOOLHW
ϵϮ
DO /HH HW DO :DNH HW DO :DWDQDEH HW DO /HH HW DO ϵϯ
3XVNDUMRYHWDO&KDPPDHWDO0HGLQDHWDO0DKDGHYDQDQG:RRGLQ
ϵϰ
ϵϱ
8VLQJ D FRPELQDWLRQ RI SURWHRPLF ELRFKHPLFDO DQG PROHFXODU VWXGLHV ZH
ϵϲ
GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW *$%$%5V DQG .&& FDQ IXQFWLRQDOO\ DVVRFLDWH ZLWK RQH DQRWKHU DW WKH
ϵϳ
PHPEUDQH RI QHXURQV $FWLYDWLRQ RI WKH *$%$%5 UHVXOWV LQ UHGXFHG OHYHOV RI .&& DW WKH
ϵϴ
FHOOVXUIDFHZKLFKSDUDOOHOVDQLQFUHDVHLQLQWUDFHOOXODUFKORULGHDQGGHSRODUL]LQJVKLIWLQWKH
ϵϵ
UHYHUVDO SRWHQWLDO IRU WKH *$%$$5 2XU GDWD VXSSRUWV D QRYHO PHFKDQLVP E\ ZKLFK
ϭϬϬ
*$%$%5V FDQ PRGXODWH .&& DQG WKHUHE\ IDVW V\QDSWLF LQKLELWLRQ PHGLDWHG E\ WKH
ϭϬϭ
LRQRWURSLF*$%$$5
ϭϬϮ
ϰ
ϭϬϯ
0DWHULDOVDQG0HWKRGV
ϭϬϰ
0DVV VSHFWURPHWU\ $OO H[SHULPHQWV XVLQJ DQLPDO WLVVXH ZHUH LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK
ϭϬϱ
UHJXODWLRQV IURP WKH 8. +RPH 2IILFH $QLPDOV 6FLHQWLILF 3URFHGXUHV $FW &RUWLFDO
ϭϬϲ
PHPEUDQHV ZHUH SUHSDUHG E\ GLVVHFWLQJ WKH QHRFRUWH[ IURP PDOH DGXOW PRQWKV ROG
ϭϬϳ
6SUDJXH'DZOH\UDWV+DUODQDQGKRPRJHQL]LQJLQ0VXFURVHP07ULV+&OS+
ϭϬϴ
POJ WLVVXH 7KH KRPRJHQDWH ZDV FHQWULIXJHG IRU PLQ DW JDY °& DQG WKH
ϭϬϵ
VXSHUQDWDQWFHQWULIXJHGIRUPLQDWJDY°&(DFKSHOOHWZDVUHVXVSHQGHGLQ0
ϭϭϬ
VXFURVHDQGOD\HUHGDWWKHWRSRIDVXFURVHJUDGLHQW0±0±0VXFURVHLQ
ϭϭϭ
P0 7ULV+&O S+ *UDGLHQWV ZHUH FHQWULIXJHG IRU K DW JDY °& 7KH
ϭϭϮ
PHPEUDQHV ZHUH UHPRYHG UHVXVSHQGHG LQ 0 VXFURVH DQG FHQWULIXJHG IRU PLQ DW
ϭϭϯ
JDY°&(DFKSHOOHWZDVUHVXVSHQGHGLQPORIFROGG+2ZLWKSURWHDVHLQKLELWRUV
ϭϭϰ
DQGSODFHGRQLFHIRUPLQ7KHVDPSOHVZHUHFHQWULIXJHGIRUPLQDWJDY°&
ϭϭϱ
DQG WKH SHOOHWV UHVXVSHQGHG LQ P0 7ULV+&O S+ SULRU WR GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH SURWHLQ
ϭϭϲ
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DQG IUHH]LQJ DW °& )RU HDFK DIILQLW\ SXULILFDWLRQ LQ WRWDO PJ RI WKH
ϭϭϳ
SUHSDUHG PHPEUDQHV ZHUH VROXELOL]HG LQ P0 7ULV+&O S+ FRQWDLQLQJ VRGLXP
ϭϭϴ
GHR[\FKRODWH'2&SURWHDVHLQKLELWRUV%RHKULQJHU('7$IUHHDQGP0LRGRDFHWDPLGH
ϭϭϵ
7KHGHWHUJHQWWRSURWHLQUDWLRZDV/\VDWHVZHUHFHQWULIXJHGIRUKDWJDYDW°&
ϭϮϬ
7KHVXSHUQDWDQWZDVGLYLGHGHTXDOO\DQGURWDWHGZLWKHLWKHUμJRI*$%$%5DQWLERG\RU
ϭϮϭ
VKHHS ,J* IRU K DW °& $ μO VXVSHQVLRQ RI 3URWHLQ * 6HSKDURVH )DVW )ORZ EHDGV
ϭϮϮ
$PHUVKDP %LRWHFK LQ P0 7ULV+&O S+ ZDV DGGHG DQG URWDWHG RYHUQLJKW DW
ϭϮϯ
°&%HDGVZHUHZDVKHGWKUHHWLPHVZLWKP07ULV+&OS+SOXV'2&RQFHZLWK
ϭϮϰ
P07ULV+&OS+DQGHOXWHGLQWRμO1RYH[[UHGXFLQJVDPSOHEXIIHUE\KHDWLQJDW
ϭϮϱ
°&IRUPLQ6DPSOHV ZHUHDQDO\VHGE\ HOHFWURSKRUHVLVRQ %LV7ULV 1X3$*(
ϭϮϲ
1RYH[JHOVZLWK023VUXQQLQJEXIIHU,QYLWURJHQ7KHJHOZDVVWDLQHGZLWK*HO&RGH%OXH
ϭϮϳ
6WDLQ5HDJHQW3LHUFHDQGEDQGVIURPERWKH[SHULPHQWDODQGFRQWUROODQHVZHUH H[FLVHG
ϭϮϴ
6DPSOHV ZHUH UHGXFHG ZLWK GLWKLRWKUHLWRO DON\ODWHG ZLWK LRGRDFHWDPLGH DQG GLJHVWHG ZLWK
ϱ
ϭϮϵ
WU\SVLQ XVLQJ D 0DVV35(3 ZRUNVWDWLRQ :DWHUV 0DQFKHVWHU 8. 7KH UHVXOWLQJ SHSWLGH
ϭϯϬ
PL[WXUHV ZHUH DQDO\]HG E\ OLTXLG FKURPDWRJUDSK\ WDQGHP PDVV VSHFWURPHWU\ 0606
ϭϯϭ
XVLQJD&DS/&DQG47RIPDVVVSHFWURPHWHU:DWHUVRSHUDWLQJLQGDWDGHSHQGHQW0606
ϭϯϮ
PRGH DW WKH IDFLOLW\ DW *OD[R6PLWK.OLQH 6WHYHQDJH 8. 3HSWLGHV DQG SURWHLQV ZHUH
ϭϯϯ
LGHQWLILHG E\ DXWRPDWHG VHDUFKLQJ RI DOO 0606 VSHFWUD DJDLQVW D *OD[R6PLWK.OLQH QRQ
ϭϯϰ
UHGXQGDQW SURWHLQ GDWD EDVH &DQGLGDWH SURWHLQV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH *$%$%5 KDG WR L
ϭϯϱ
DSSHDU LQ WKUHH LQGHSHQGHQW LVRODWHV LL EH LGHQWLILHG DW D SRVLWLRQ RQ WKH 6'63$*( JHO
ϭϯϲ
WKDWFRUUHVSRQGHGWRWKHLUQDWLYHPROHFXODUZHLJKWLLLKDYHEHHQLGHQWLILHGRQWKHEDVLVRI
ϭϯϳ
WZR RU PRUH SHSWLGHV RQ HDFK RFFDVLRQ DQG LY QRW UHSHDWHGO\ DSSHDU LQ ,J* FRQWURO
ϭϯϴ
SUHFLSLWDWHV
ϭϯϵ
ϭϰϬ
$QWLERGLHV 7KH IROORZLQJ DQWLERGLHV ZHUH XVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ 6KHHS DQWL*$%$%5
ϭϰϭ
DQWLERG\3RQWLHUHWDOPRXVHDQWL*$%$%58&'DYLV1,+1HXUR0DE)DFLOLW\
ϭϰϮ
FORQH 1$ 6LJPD :+08* FORQH ' UDEELW DQWL*$%$%5
ϭϰϯ
*OD[R6PLWK.OLQH3RQWLHUHWDOVKHHS,J*7KHUPR)LVKHU6FLHQWLILFUDEELW
ϭϰϰ
DQWL&WHUPLQXV .&& 0LOOLSRUH UDEELW DQWLβWXEXOLQ 6LJPD 7 UDEELW DQWL
ϭϰϱ
*)3 7KHUPR )LVKHU 6FLHQWLILF $ PRXVH DQWLWUDQVIHUULQ UHFHSWRU 7KHUPR )LVKHU
ϭϰϲ
6FLHQWLILF UDEELW ,J* 7KHUPR )LVKHU 6FLHQWLILF PRXVH DQWLȕWXEXOLQ
ϭϰϳ
&DPEULGJH %LRVFLHQFH 0063 PRXVH DQWLWUDQVIHUULQ UHFHSWRU 7KHUPR )LVKHU
ϭϰϴ
6FLHQWLILF PRXVH DQWL1.&& 'HYHORSPHQWDO 6WXGLHV +\EULGRPD %DQN 7
ϭϰϵ
FORQHPRXVHDQWLDFWLQ6LJPD$+53FRQMXJDWHGGRQNH\DQWLUDEELW6WUDWHFK
ϭϱϬ
+53FRQMXJDWHGJRDWDQWLPRXVH6WUDWHFKGRQNH\DQWLUDEELW&\
ϭϱϭ
FRQMXJDWHGPRQRYDOHQW)DEIUDJPHQW6WUDWHFKGRQNH\DQWLUDEELW$OH[D
ϭϱϮ
FRQMXJDWHGVHFRQGDU\7KHUPR)LVKHU6FLHQWLILF$
ϭϱϯ
ϭϱϰ
3UHSDUDWLRQRIRUJDQRW\SLFKLSSRFDPSDOVOLFHV(OHFWURSK\VLRORJLFDOUHFRUGLQJVOLYHFHOO
ϭϱϱ
LPDJLQJ DQG ELRFKHPLVWU\ H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG LQ RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO EUDLQ
ϲ
ϭϱϲ
VOLFHVJHQHUDWHGIURP3PDOH:LVWDUUDWVDQGFXOWXUHGIRUWRGD\VLQYLWUR',9SULRUWR
ϭϱϳ
H[SHULPHQWDWLRQ 2UJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFHV ZHUH JHQHUDWHG DV GHVFULEHG SUHYLRXVO\
ϭϱϴ
6WRSSLQLHWDO%ULHIO\3UDWEUDLQVZHUHH[WUDFWHGDQGSODFHGLQFROGƒ&*H\V
ϭϱϵ
%DODQFHG 6DOW 6ROXWLRQ *%66 6LJPDVXSSOHPHQWHG ZLWK 'JOXFRVH P0 7KH
ϭϲϬ
KHPLVSKHUHV ZHUH VHSDUDWHGDQG LQGLYLGXDO KLSSRFDPSL ZHUH UHPRYHG DQG LPPHGLDWHO\
ϭϲϭ
VHFWLRQHGLQWRȝPWKLFNVOLFHVRQD0F,OZDLQWLVVXHFKRSSHU6OLFHVZHUHULQVHGLQFROG
ϭϲϮ
GLVVHFWLRQ PHGLD SODFHG RQWR 0LOOLFHOO&0 PHPEUDQHV DQGPDLQWDLQHG LQ FXOWXUH PHGLD
ϭϲϯ
FRQWDLQLQJYY(%66YY0(0YYKHDWLQDFWLYDWHGKRUVHVHUXP
ϭϲϰ
ZYJOXFRVHDQGYY%DOOIURP,QYLWURJHQP2VPDWÛ&LQD&2
ϭϲϱ
KXPLGLILHG LQFXEDWRU 7KH RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO EUDLQ VOLFH HQDEOHG XV WR FRQGXFW
ϭϲϲ
HOHFWURSK\VLRORJLFDO LPDJLQJ DQG ELRFKHPLFDO H[SHULPHQWV LQ WKH VDPH SUHSDUDWLRQ $
ϭϲϳ
SRWHQWLDOVRXUFHRIYDULDQFHZKHQLQYHVWLJDWLQJFKORULGHKRPHRVWDVLVPHFKDQLVPVLQDFXWHO\
ϭϲϴ
SUHSDUHGEUDLQVOLFHVKDVEHHQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKQHXURQDOGDPDJHFDXVHGGXULQJWKHVOLFLQJ
ϭϲϵ
SURFHGXUH 3XVNDUMRY HW DO ']KDOD HW DO $Q DGYDQWDJH RI WKH RUJDQRW\SLF
ϭϳϬ
KLSSRFDPSDOEUDLQVOLFHLVWKDWDQ\QHXURQVWKDWDUHGDPDJHGE\WKHVOLFLQJSURFHVVDUHORVW
ϭϳϭ
GXULQJWKHFXOWXULQJSHULRG,QGHHGSUHYLRXVZRUNKDVVKRZQWKDWWKHS\UDPLGDOQHXURQVLQ
ϭϳϮ
WKH RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO EUDLQ VOLFH KDYH PDWXUH DQG VWDEOH FKORULGH KRPHRVWDVLV
ϭϳϯ
PHFKDQLVPVDVHYLGHQFHGE\WKHLUK\SHUSRODUL]LQJ(*$%$$,OLHHWDO5DLPRQGRHWDO
ϭϳϰ
(OOHQGHU HW DO 7KLV LV VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH FXUUHQW ZRUN ZKLFK REVHUYHG WKDW
ϭϳϱ
(*$%$$LVDIIHFWHGE\.&&EORFNLQJGUXJVEXWQRWE\1.&&EORFNLQJGUXJVVHHEHORZ
ϭϳϲ
$WWKHWLPHRIHOHFWURSK\VLRORJLFDOUHFRUGLQJ3SOXV',9&$S\UDPLGDOQHXURQVLQ
ϭϳϳ
WKH RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFHV H[KLELWHG D K\SHUSRODUL]LQJ (*$%$$ “ P9
ϭϳϴ
FRPSDUHGWRWKHLUUHVWLQJPHPEUDQHSRWHQWLDO“P9Q SDQGWKHLU
ϭϳϵ
(*$%$$ VKLIWHG WR PRUH GHSRODUL]HG YDOXHV XSRQ DSSOLFDWLRQ RI P0 IXURVHPLGH (*$%$$ LQ
ϭϴϬ
IXURVHPLGH “P9Q RUȝ098(*$%$$ LQ98 “
ϭϴϭ
P9'HOSLUHHWDO7KLVLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWK.&&EHLQJDFWLYHLQWKHVHQHXURQVDQG
ϭϴϮ
FRQWULEXWLQJ WR D PDWXUH DQG K\SHUSRODUL]LQJ (*$%$$ :KLOVW PDQ\ DVSHFWV RI RUJDQRW\SLF
ϭϴϯ
KLSSRFDPSDOVOLFHFXOWXUHVKDYHEHHQVKRZQWRUHVHPEOHWKHin vivoVWDWH'H6LPRQLHWDO
ϳ
ϭϴϰ
H[FLWDWRU\ QHXURQV LQ WKLV H[SHULPHQWDO V\VWHP H[KLELW LQFUHDVHG D[RQDO VSURXWLQJ
ϭϴϱ
ZKLFK LV OLNHO\ WR XQGHUOLH WKH KLJKHU OHYHOV RI V\QFKURQRXV QHWZRUN DFWLYLW\ '\KUIMHOG
ϭϴϲ
-RKQVHQHWDO
ϭϴϳ
ϭϴϴ
+HWHURORJRXV FHOO FXOWXUH DQG WUDQVIHFWLRQ RI .&& FRQVWUXFWV &+2 FHOOV VWDEO\
ϭϴϵ
H[SUHVVLQJ*$%$%5D5RU*$%$%5E5ZHUHJURZQDVGHVFULEHGSUHYLRXVO\3RQWLHUHW
ϭϵϬ
DO LQ '0(0) +DP *LEFR ZLWK P0 JOXWDPLQH ,QYLWURJHQ YY )%6
ϭϵϭ
,QYLWURJHQ PJPO *HQHWLFLQ PJPO +\JURP\FLQ % DQG XJPO SXURP\FLQ DOO
ϭϵϮ
IURP ,QYLWURJHQ S+ P2V0 )XOOOHQJWK UDW .&& F'1$ VHTXHQFH
ϭϵϯ
HQFRGLQJDPLQRDFLGVDDVDVZHOODV.&&GHOHWLRQPXWDQWV70'&7'DDV
ϭϵϰ
17'70'DDV70'DDVDQG&7'DDVZHUHFORQHGLQWR
ϭϵϱ
S(*)31 &ORQWHFK WR JHQHUDWH &WHUPLQDOO\ WDJJHG IXVLRQ SURWHLQV .&& 17' DDV ϭϵϲ
ZDVFORQHGLQWRS(*)3&&RQVWUXFWVZHUHWUDQVIHFWHGLQWR&+2FHOOVXVLQJ-HW3(,
ϭϵϳ
3RO\SOXVDQGH[SUHVVHGIRUKSULRUWRLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWLRQRUELRWLQ\ODWLRQDQDO\VLVVHH
ϭϵϴ
EHORZ
ϭϵϵ
ϮϬϬ
&RLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWLRQ 2UJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFHV RU WUDQVIHFWHG &+2 FHOOV ZHUH
ϮϬϭ
KRPRJHQL]HGLQ&+$36EXIIHUP07ULVS+P01D&OP0('7$ZY
ϮϬϮ
&+$36 DQG SURWHDVH LQKLELWRUV 5RFKH 3UHFOHDUHG O\VDWHV ZHUH SUREHG IRU *$%$%5
ϮϬϯ
.&&*)3RU,J*3URWHLQ$*SOXVDJDURVHZDVDGGHGIRUKSULRUWRZDVKLQJLQ&+$36
ϮϬϰ
EXIIHU$JDURVHEHDGVZHUHHOXWHGLQ[VDPSOHEXIIHUDW R&IRUPLQSULRUWRORDGLQJ
ϮϬϱ
RQ WR RU 6'63$*( JHOV *HOV ZHUH LPPXQREORWWHG RQWR 3URWUDQ QLWURFHOOXORVH
ϮϬϲ
PHPEUDQHV6LJPDDQGSUREHGZLWKLQGLFDWHGSULPDU\DQWLERGLHVRYHUQLJKWDW R&SULRUWR
ϮϬϳ
DGGLWLRQ RI UHOHYDQW VHFRQGDU\ +53FRQMXJDWHG DQWLERGLHV DQG GHYHORSPHQW ZLWK 3LHUFH
ϮϬϴ
(&/VXEVWUDWH7KHUPR6FLHQWLILF
ϮϬϵ
ϮϭϬ
%LRWLQ\ODWLRQRIFHOOVXUIDFHSURWHLQV5DWRUJDQRW\SLFKLSSRFDPSDOVOLFHVZHUHLQFXEDWHG
Ϯϭϭ
IRU PLQ DW R& LQ HLWKHU FRQWURO DUWLILFLDO FHUHEURVSLQDO IOXLG $&6) RU $&6)
ϴ
ϮϭϮ
FRQWDLQLQJ ȝ0 6.) ZKLOH FRQWLQXRXVO\ EXEEOLQJ ZLWK 2 &2 )RU
Ϯϭϯ
ELRWLQ\ODWLRQ RI ERWK VOLFHV DQG &+2 FHOOV HYHU\ VXEVHTXHQW VWHS ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ LFH
Ϯϭϰ
6DPSOHV ZHUH LQFXEDWHG IRU PLQ ZLWK ȝ0 FOHDYDEOH ELRWLQ (=/LQN 6XOIR1+6
Ϯϭϱ
66%LRWLQ 7KHUPR 6FLHQWLILF WKHQ ZDVKHG WZLFH ZLWK ȝ0 O\VLQH DQG O\VHG ZLWK O\VLV
Ϯϭϲ
EXIIHUP07ULVS+P01D&OP0('7$ZY6'6YY7ULWRQ;
Ϯϭϳ
FRQWDLQLQJSURWHDVHLQKLELWRUV5RFKH7KHO\VDWHZDVFHQWULIXJHGDQGȝORIWKHUHVXOWDQW
Ϯϭϴ
VXSHUQDWDQW ZDV UHPRYHG DV WKH µWRWDO¶ SURWHLQ O\VDWH VDPSOH %LRWLQ\ODWHG SURWHLQV ZHUH
Ϯϭϵ
FDSWXUHG E\ LQFXEDWLRQ ZLWK ZDVKHG 1HXWU$YLGLQ 8OWUDOLQN 5HVLQ 7KHUPR 6FLHQWLILF RQ D
ϮϮϬ
URWDWRU RYHUQLJKW DW R & 7KH EHDGV ZHUH ZDVKHG [ ZLWK O\VLV EXIIHU DQG WKH µ6XUIDFH¶
ϮϮϭ
VDPSOH HOXWHG DW Û& IRU PLQ LQ [ VDPSOH EXIIHU 3UHSDUHG SURWHLQ VDPSOHV ZHUH
ϮϮϮ
VXEMHFWHGWR6'63$*(LPPXQREORWWLQJDVGHVFULEHGDERYH,QWKH&+2FHOOH[SHULPHQWV
ϮϮϯ
IOXRUHVFHQWVLJQDOVZHUHDQDO\VHGXVLQJD/,&252G\VVH\VFDQQHU)RUVOLFHH[SHULPHQWV
ϮϮϰ
WKH (&/ VLJQDO ZDV FDSWXUHG GLJLWDOO\ XVLQJ D )OXRU6 0XOWL,PDJHU %LR5DG %DFNJURXQG
ϮϮϱ
LQWHQVLW\ ZDV VXEWUDFWHG DQG WKH RSWLFDO GHQVLW\ IRU HDFK EDQG TXDQWLILHG WKURXJK 4XDQWLW\
ϮϮϲ
2QH9VRIWZDUH%LR5DG
ϮϮϳ
)RU ELRWLQ\ODWLRQ H[SHULPHQWV LQ RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFHV HDFK VDPSOH ZDV
ϮϮϴ
FRPSULVHG RI VOLFHV IURP WKH VDPH DQLPDO PDLQWDLQHG RQ WKH VDPH 0LOOLFHOO&0
ϮϮϵ
PHPEUDQH(YHU\6.)WUHDWHGVDPSOHZDVSURFHVVHGLQSDUDOOHOZLWKDFRQWUROVDPSOH
ϮϯϬ
IURPWKHVDPHDQLPDO%HWZHHQVDPSOHVZHUHJHQHUDWHGIURPDQLQGLYLGXDODQLPDODQG
Ϯϯϭ
HDFK H[SHULPHQWDO GUXJ PDQLSXODWLRQ XVHG WLVVXH IURP EHWZHHQ DQLPDOV )RU HDFK
ϮϯϮ
VDPSOH WKH VXUIDFH SURWHLQ ZDV QRUPDOL]HG DJDLQVW WKH WRWDO SURWHLQ ZKLFK ZDV UXQ LQ WKH
Ϯϯϯ
DGMDFHQWODQH$VWKHUDWLRRIVXUIDFHWRWDOZDVFDOFXODWHGZLWKLQHDFKVDPSOHWKLVFRQWUROOHG
Ϯϯϰ
IRUGLIIHUHQFHVLQRYHUDOOSURWHLQOHYHOVDFURVVVDPSOHVDQGYDULDQFHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKORDGLQJ
Ϯϯϱ
µ&RQWURO¶DQGFRUUHVSRQGLQJµ6.)WUHDWHG¶VDPSOHVZHUHDOZD\VUXQRQWKHVDPHJHO
Ϯϯϲ
FRQWUROYDOXHVZHUHVHWWRDQGWKH6.)WUHDWPHQWH[SUHVVHGDVDSHUFHQWDJHRI
Ϯϯϳ
FRQWURO,IWKHVXUIDFHWRWDOUDWLRIRUDSDUWLFXODUSURWHLQZDVFRQVLVWHQWO\ORZHUIRU6.)
Ϯϯϴ
WUHDWHGVDPSOHVWKDQWKHLUFRUUHVSRQGLQJFRQWUROVDPSOHVWKLVZRXOGUHVXOWLQDSRSXODWLRQ
ϵ
Ϯϯϵ
PHDQEHORZDQGZRXOGLQGLFDWHWKDW*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQFDXVHGDGHFUHDVHLQVXUIDFH
ϮϰϬ
OHYHOVRIWKHSURWHLQ
Ϯϰϭ
ϮϰϮ
,PPXQRIOXRUHVFHQFH2UJDQRW\SLFKLSSRFDPSDOVOLFHV3SOXV',9ZHUHIL[HGHLWKHU
Ϯϰϯ
LQ LFH FROG PHWKDQRO IRU .&& ODEHOOLQJ RU LQ SDUDIRUPDOGHK\GH IROORZHG E\ FROG
Ϯϰϰ
PHWKDQRO IRU *$%$%5 ODEHOOLQJ 6OLFHV ZHUH EORFNHG LQ 3%6 FRQWDLQLQJ 7ULWRQ ;
Ϯϰϱ
7; DQG QRUPDO JRDW VHUXP ,QFXEDWLRQ ZLWK SULPDU\ DQWLERGLHV Ϯϰϲ
GLOXWLRQIRUERWKUDEELWDQWL*$%$%5DQGUDEELWDQWL.&&ZDVSHUIRUPHGDWÛ&RYHUQLJKW
Ϯϰϳ
6OLFHVZHUHZDVKHGWLPHVZLWK3%6FRQWDLQLQJ7;DQGLQFXEDWHGIRUKDW57
Ϯϰϴ
LQWKHVDPHEXIIHUVXSSOHPHQWHGZLWKQRUPDOJRDWVHUXPDQGFRQWDLQLQJHLWKHUD
Ϯϰϵ
RU FRXSOHG DQWLUDEELW VHFRQGDU\ DQWLERG\ ,QYLWURJHQ 6OLFHV ZHUH WKHQ ZDVKHG D
ϮϱϬ
IXUWKHUWLPHVEHIRUHPRXQWLQJLQJO\FHURO3%6
Ϯϱϭ
,PPXQRIOXRUHVFHQFHZDVDOVRH[DPLQHGLQGLVVRFLDWHGKLSSRFDPSDOQHXURQVZKHUH
ϮϱϮ
DQWLERG\ DQG RSWLFDO DFFHVV LV EHWWHU DQG ZKHUH ZH ZHUH DEOH WR GHYHORS D SURWRFRO WR
Ϯϱϯ
TXDQWLI\ FRH[SUHVVLRQ RI ERWK SURWHLQV ZLWKLQ WKH VDPH FHOO 5DW GLVVRFLDWHG KLSSRFDPSDO
Ϯϱϰ
FHOOVZHUHSUHSDUHGDWHPEU\RQLFGD\(DVGHVFULEHGSUHYLRXVO\3RROHUHWDO
Ϯϱϱ
$IWHU ',9 FHOOV ZHUH IL[HG LQ LFHFROG PHWKDQRO EORFNHG LQ GRQNH\ VHUXP DQG
Ϯϱϲ
VHTXHQWLDOO\ FRODEHOOHG IRU *$%$%5 DQG HLWKHU .&& RU βWXEXOLQ &HOOV ZHUH LQFXEDWHG
Ϯϱϳ
ZLWKWKHUDEELWDQWL*$%$%5SULPDU\DQWLERG\GLOXWLRQIROORZHGE\LQFXEDWLRQZLWKD
Ϯϱϴ
GRQNH\ DQWLUDEELW &\PRQRYDOHQW )DE IUDJPHQW GLOXWLRQ $IWHU ZDVKLQJ WKH FHOOV
Ϯϱϵ
ZHUHIXUWKHUFRODEHOOHGIRU.&&RUβWXEXOLQERWKDQWLUDEELWIROORZHGE\
ϮϲϬ
LQFXEDWLRQ ZLWK GRQNH\ DQWLUDEELW $OH[D FRQMXJDWHG VHFRQGDU\ DQWLERG\ $SSURSULDWH
Ϯϲϭ
FRQWUROV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG WR HQVXUH WKH &\ )DE IUDJPHQW EORFNHG DOO DYDLODEOH *$%$%5
ϮϲϮ
VLWHV &RYHUVOLSV ZHUH ZDVKHG DQG PRXQWHG ZLWK 9HFWDVKLHOG PRXQWLQJ PHGLXP 9HFWRU
Ϯϲϯ
/DERUDWRULHV ,PDJHV ZHUH FROOHFWHG XVLQJ D =HLVV 3ODQ$SRFKURPDW [ 1$ RLO
Ϯϲϰ
REMHFWLYH PRXQWHG RQ D =HLVV /60 FRQIRFDO VFDQQLQJ PLFURVFRSH PRXQWHG RQ DQ
ϭϬ
Ϯϲϱ
$[LRYHUW 0 LQYHUWHG PLFURVFRSH &DUO =HLVV +LSSRFDPSDO QHXURQV LQ WKH GLVVRFLDWHG
Ϯϲϲ
FXOWXUHVZHUHLGHQWLILHGDVKDYLQJDODUJHVRPDDQGGHQGULWLFVSLQHV
Ϯϲϳ
Ϯϲϴ
(OHFWURSK\VLRORJLFDO UHFRUGLQJV 2UJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFHV ZHUH WUDQVIHUUHG WR D
Ϯϲϵ
UHFRUGLQJFKDPEHUDQGFRQWLQXRXVO\VXSHUIXVHGZLWK2&2$&6)KHDWHGWR
ϮϳϬ
ƒ& 7KHVH FRQGLWLRQV HQVXUHG WKHUPDO VWDELOLW\ DQG SHUPLWWHG ORQJWHUP SDWFK FODPS
Ϯϳϭ
UHFRUGLQJVIURP&$S\UDPLGDOQHXURQV7KH$&6)ZDVFRPSRVHGRILQP01D&O
ϮϳϮ
.&O 0J&O &D&O 1D+32 1D+&2 '*OXFRVH ZLWK D S+
Ϯϳϯ
EHWZHHQDQG:LWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRIWKHV\QDSWLFVWLPXODWLRQH[SHULPHQWVWKH$&6)
Ϯϳϰ
DOVR FRQWDLQHG ȝ0 WHWURGRWR[LQ 7RFULV LQ RUGHU WR HOLPLQDWH DQ\ SRWHQWLDO HIIHFWV DW WKH
Ϯϳϱ
QHWZRUN OHYHO )RU SHUIRUDWHG SDWFK UHFRUGLQJV WKH LQWHUQDO VROXWLRQ FRQWDLQHG LQ P0 .&O
Ϯϳϲ
1D$73 1D*73 0J&O DQG +(3(6 RVPRODULW\ P2V0 S+
Ϯϳϳ
*UDPLFLGLQ &DOELRFKHP ZDV DGGHG RQ WKH GD\ RI WKH H[SHULPHQW WR DFKLHYH D ILQDO
Ϯϳϴ
FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIȝJPO5HFRUGLQJVZHUHPDGHZLWK0ȍSLSHWWHVYLDDQ$[RSDWFK'
Ϯϳϵ
DPSOLILHU 0ROHFXODU 'HYLFHV RQFH SHUIRUDWLRQ KDG UHDFKHG DVWHDG\DFFHVV UHVLVWDQFH RI
ϮϴϬ
EHWZHHQ0ȍ7RPHDVXUH(*$%$$FHOOVZHUHPDLQWDLQHGDWDKROGLQJSRWHQWLDORI
Ϯϴϭ
P9 IURP ZKLFK WKH\ UHFHLYHG YROWDJH VWHSV UDQJLQJ IURP WR P9 5HSRUWHG
ϮϴϮ
PHPEUDQH SRWHQWLDOV ZHUH FRUUHFWHG IRU WKH YROWDJH GURS DFURVV WKH VHULHV UHVLVWDQFH IRU
Ϯϴϯ
HDFK QHXURQ 7KH OLTXLG MXQFWLRQ SRWHQWLDO DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH SHUIRUDWHGSDWFK UHFRUGLQJV
Ϯϴϰ
ZDVVPDOOP9DQGVRPHPEUDQHSRWHQWLDOYDOXHVZHUHQRWDGMXVWHGIRUWKLVSDUDPHWHU
Ϯϴϱ
*$%$$5DFWLYDWLRQZDVDFKLHYHGE\SUHVVXUHDSSOLFDWLRQRIPXVFLPROȝ07RFULVYLDD
Ϯϴϲ
SLFRVSULW]HU *HQHUDO 9DOYH &RPSDQ\ 7R PLQLPL]H HUURUV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DFFHVV
Ϯϴϳ
UHVLVWDQFHPXVFLPROHYRNHGFXUUHQWVZHUHNHSWVPDOOFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRFRQGXFWDQFHVRIXS
Ϯϴϴ
WRQ6E\DGMXVWLQJWKHSRVLWLRQRIWKHPXVFLPROSLSHWWH(DFKYROWDJHVWHSODVWHGIRU
Ϯϴϵ
PVDQGFHOOVZHUHUHWXUQHGWRWKHUHVWLQJKROGLQJSRWHQWLDORIP9IRUVEHWZHHQVWHSV
ϮϵϬ
WRDOORZWLPHIRUWKHLQWUDFHOOXODUFKORULGH WRUHHTXLOLEUDWH(KUOLFKHWDO$VDIXUWKHU
Ϯϵϭ
SUHFDXWLRQWKHGLUHFWLRQLQZKLFKWKHVHYROWDJHVWHSVSURJUHVVHGLHIURPWRP9RU
ϭϭ
ϮϵϮ
IURP WR P9 ZDV DOWHUQDWHG WR DYRLG DQ\ ELDV LQ WKH (*$%$$ FDOFXODWLRQV EURXJKW
Ϯϵϯ
DERXW E\ FKORULGH ORDGLQJ RU UHPRYDO $NHUPDQ DQG &OLQH &RQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH IDFW
Ϯϵϰ
WKDWWUDQVLHQWFKDQJHVLQ(*$%$$FDXVHGE\WUDQVPHPEUDQHIOX[HVRIFKORULGHUHFRYHUZLWKD
Ϯϵϱ
WLPHFRQVWDQWRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\V5DLPRQGRHWDORXUSURWRFROSURGXFHGUHOLDEOH
Ϯϵϲ
HVWLPDWHV RI VWHDG\VWDWH (*$%$$ $OO GUXJV ZHUH DGGHG WR WKH $&6) ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI
Ϯϵϳ
SHUWXVVLVWR[LQ37;6LJPDDQGRNDGDLFDFLG2$7RFULVZKLFKZHUHDGGHGGLUHFWO\WRWKH
Ϯϵϴ
WLVVXH FXOWXUH PHGLD SULRU WR H[SHULPHQWDWLRQ $V UHTXLUHG WKH IROORZLQJ DQWDJRQLVWV DQG
Ϯϵϵ
EORFNHUV ZHUH DGGHG WR WKH H[WHUQDO EDWKLQJ VROXWLRQ 6.) &*3 6&+
ϯϬϬ
.D '$3 N\QXUHQLF DFLG 65 98 DOO IURP 7RFULV )XURVHPLGH
ϯϬϭ
%XPHWDQLGH *ऺ 6RGLXP 2UWKRYDQRGDWH 1D92 1LPRGLSLQH 7KDSVLJDUJLQ
ϯϬϮ
0RQRGDQV\OFDGDYHULQH'&DOOIURP6LJPD
ϯϬϯ
)RU V\QDSWLF VWLPXODWLRQ H[SHULPHQWV JOXWDPDWHUJLF WUDQVPLVVLRQ ZDV EORFNHG E\
ϯϬϰ
DGGLQJ P0 N\QXUHQLF DFLG WR WKH $&6) DQG *$%$ UHOHDVH DW V\QDSWLF WHUPLQDOV ZDV
ϯϬϱ
HYRNHG E\ GHOLYHULQJ HOHFWULFDO VWLPXOL YLD D ELSRODU WXQJVWHQ VWLPXODWLQJ HOHFWURGH )+&
ϯϬϲ
SODFHGȝPIURPWKHUHFRUGHGS\UDPLGDOFHOODWWKHERUGHURIWKHVWUDWXPS\UDPLGDOH
ϯϬϳ
DQGVWUDWXPUDGLDWXP6FDQ]LDQL7RHVWDEOLVKWKHVWLPXODWLRQFRQGLWLRQVXQGHUZKLFK
ϯϬϴ
V\QDSWLF *$%$$5 DQG *$%$%5 UHVSRQVHV DUH HYRNHG D VHULHV RI UHFRUGLQJV ZHUH ILUVW
ϯϬϵ
SHUIRUPHG LQ ZKROHFHOO PRGH XVLQJ D ORZFKORULGH LQWHUQDO VROXWLRQ FRQWDLQLQJ LQ P0 .
ϯϭϬ
JOXFRQDWH 1D$73 1D*73 0J&O (*7$ +(3(6 7R LPSURYH
ϯϭϭ
GHWHFWLRQRI*$%$HUJLFFXUUHQWVLQWKHZKROHFHOOUHFRUGLQJVFHOOVZHUHFODPSHGDWP9
ϯϭϮ
DQG*$%$$5DQG*$%$%5FRQGXFWDQFHVZHUHFDOFXODWHGE\GLYLGLQJWKHLVRODWHGFXUUHQWV
ϯϭϯ
E\WKHLUGULYLQJIRUFH)LJXUH&
ϯϭϰ
6\QDSWLF(*$%$$ZDVGHWHUPLQHGIURPJUDPLFLGLQSHUIRUDWHGSDWFKUHFRUGLQJVXVLQJD
ϯϭϱ
VWHS YROWDJHSURWRFRO IURP D KROGLQJ SRWHQWLDO RI P9 7KH KROGLQJ SRWHQWLDO RI WKH FHOOV
ϯϭϲ
ZDV VWHSSHG DW P9 LQFUHPHQWV EHWZHHQ DQG P9 GXULQJ ZKLFK SXUH *$%$$5
ϯϭϳ
FXUUHQWV ZHUH HOLFLWHG XVLQJ VLQJOH SUHV\QDSWLF VWLPXOL )LJXUH $JDLQ V ZDV DOORZHG
ϯϭϴ
EHWZHHQ SUHV\QDSWLF VWLPXOL WR DOORZ WLPH IRU WKH LQWUDFHOOXODU FKORULGH WR UHHTXLOLEUDWH
ϯϭϵ
(KUOLFKHWDO,QV\QDSWLFFRQGLWLRQLQJH[SHULPHQWVDVWLPXODWLRQSURWRFROZDVXVHGWR
ϭϮ
ϯϮϬ
VWURQJO\DFWLYDWH*$%$%5VEXUVWVRIVWLPXOLDWDIUHTXHQF\RI+]UHSHDWHGHYHU\V
ϯϮϭ
IRUDSHULRGRIV)LJXUHDQGWKHHIIHFWVXSRQV\QDSWLF(*$%$$ZHUHPHDVXUHG'XULQJ
ϯϮϮ
WKH*$%$%5V\QDSWLFFRQGLWLRQLQJSURWRFROWKHSRVWV\QDSWLFQHXURQZDVKHOGDWLWV(*$%$$WR
ϯϮϯ
DYRLGWUDQVLHQWORDGLQJRIWKHFHOOVZLWKFKORULGH)LJXUH%,QDGGLWLRQWRDOORZWLPHIRUDQ\
ϯϮϰ
WUDQVLHQW FKDQJHV WR LQWUDFHOOXODU FKORULGH WR IXOO\ UHHTXLOLEUDWH 5DLPRQGR HW DO O
ϯϮϱ
(KUOLFK HW DO WKH ILUVW PHDVXUHPHQW RI V\QDSWLF (*$%$$ IROORZLQJ WKH *$%$%5
ϯϮϲ
VWLPXODWLRQ SURWRFRO ZDV PDGH DIWHU PLQXWHV $V EHIRUH V\QDSWLF (*$%$$ ZDV PHDVXUHG
ϯϮϳ
XVLQJVLQJOHSUHV\QDSWLFVWLPXOLWRDFWLYDWHSXUH*$%$$5FXUUHQWV
ϯϮϴ
:KHUHYHU SRVVLEOH HOHFWURSK\VLRORJLFDO UHFRUGLQJV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG XQGHU D µZLWKLQ
ϯϮϵ
FHOO¶ H[SHULPHQWDO GHVLJQ 7KLV PHDQV WKDW HDFK QHXURQ KDG (*$%$$ PHDVXUHPHQWV EHIRUH
ϯϯϬ
µEDVHOLQH¶ DQG DIWHU GUXJ WUHDWPHQW VR WKDW HDFK QHXURQ VHUYHG DV LWV RZQ FRQWURO 7KLV
ϯϯϭ
µZLWKLQFHOO¶H[SHULPHQWDOGHVLJQUHGXFHVWKHLPSDFWRIFURVVFHOOYDULDELOLW\PHDQVWKDWGUXJ
ϯϯϮ
HIIHFWV FDQ EH H[SUHVVHG DV D FKDQJH LQ (*$%$$ DQG DOVR PHDQV WKDW HIIHFWV FDQ EH
ϯϯϯ
H[DPLQHG XVLQJ SDLUHG VWDWLVWLFDO WHVWV )RU FODULW\ ZH UHSRUW WKH PHDQ DEVROXWH YDOXHV RI
ϯϯϰ
(*$%$$ DQG WKH PHDQ FKDQJH LQ (*$%$$ 7R PLQLPLVH WKH SRWHQWLDO HIIHFW RI FKDQJHV LQ
ϯϯϱ
UHFRUGLQJ FRQGLWLRQV WKDW PD\ KDYH WDNHQ SODFH RYHU WKH FRXUVH RI WKH VWXG\ ZH WRRN WKH
ϯϯϲ
DGGLWLRQDO VWHS RI UHVWULFWLQJ FRPSDULVRQV WR UHFRUGLQJV WKDW ZHUH SHUIRUPHG GXULQJ VLPLODU
ϯϯϳ
WLPHSHULRGV)RUH[DPSOHRYHUWKHFRXUVHRIWKHVWXG\WKHHIIHFWRI6.)XSRQ(*$%$$
ϯϯϴ
ZDV PHDVXUHG LQ D WRWDO RI QHXURQV +RZHYHU ZKHQ EHLQJ FRPSDUHG WR DQRWKHU
ϯϯϵ
H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS WKH 6.) GDWD ZDV UHVWULFWHG WR UHFRUGLQJV SHUIRUPHG GXULQJ D
ϯϰϬ
VLPLODU WLPH SHULRG DV WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS )LQDOO\ WR DYRLG SRWHQWLDO FRQWDPLQDWLRQ
ϯϰϭ
HIIHFWV DFURVV H[SHULPHQWV RQO\ RQH HOHFWURSK\VLRORJLFDO UHFRUGLQJ ZDV SHUIRUPHG SHU
ϯϰϮ
RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO EUDLQ VOLFH 7KLV PHDQW WKDW IRU HDFK H[SHULPHQW WKH QXPEHU RI
ϯϰϯ
QHXURQVFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHQXPEHURIVOLFHV7KHVOLFHVIRUDQLQGLYLGXDOH[SHULPHQWZHUH
ϯϰϰ
JHQHUDWHG IURP EHWZHHQ DQLPDOV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH SDUWLFXODU VDPSOH VL]H DQG
ϯϰϱ
FRPSOH[LW\RIWKHH[SHULPHQW
ϭϯ
ϯϰϲ
0HDVXUHPHQWVRILQWUDFHOOXODUFKORULGHZLWKWKH&O6HQVRUSURWHLQ7KHF\DQDQG\HOORZ
ϯϰϳ
IOXRUHVFHQW SURWHLQ &)3<)3 EDVHG UDWLRPHWULF &O6HQVRU SURWHLQ 0DUNRYD HW DO ϯϰϴ
ZDV GHOLYHUHG WR &$ S\UDPLGDO QHXURQV LQ RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFH FXOWXUHV E\
ϯϰϵ
ELROLVWLF WUDQVIHFWLRQ %LR5DG GD\V SRVWWUDQVIHFWLRQ &O6HQVRU SURWHLQ H[SUHVVLQJ
ϯϱϬ
QHXURQV ZHUH LPDJHG XVLQJ DQ 2O\PSXV )9 FRQIRFDO PLFURVFRSH 2O\PSXV -DSDQ
ϯϱϭ
FXVWRPFRQYHUWHG IRU PXOWLSKRWRQ LPDJLQJ DQG HTXLSSHG ZLWK D 0DL7DL+3 7LVDSSKLUH
ϯϱϮ
IHPWRVHFRQGSXOVHGODVHU1HZSRUW6SHFWUD3K\VLFV,PDJHVZHUHDFTXLUHGXVLQJ)OXRYLHZ
ϯϱϯ
VRIWZDUHYHUVLRQ2O\PSXV&HOOVZHUHH[FLWHGDWQPDQGDQPGLFKURLFPLUURU
ϯϱϰ
ZDVXVHGWRVHSDUDWHHPLWWHGOLJKWLQWR&)3DQG<)3FKDQQHOVZKLFKZHUHILOWHUHGDW
ϯϱϱ
QP DQG QP UHVSHFWLYHO\ DQG GHWHFWHG VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ XVLQJ WZR H[WHUQDOO\
ϯϱϲ
PRXQWHG307V+DPDPDWVX,PDJHVWDFNVZHUHIODWILHOGFRUUHFWHGFROODSVHGDORQJWKH]
ϯϱϳ
SODQH EDFNJURXQG VXEWUDFWHG DQG WKH <)3&)3 UDWLR ZDV FDOFXODWHG E\ GLYLGLQJ WKH
ϯϱϴ
UHVSHFWLYHLPDJHVRQDSL[HOE\SL[HOEDVLV7KHUDWLRZDVFDOLEUDWHGWRDEVROXWHLQWUDFHOOXODU
ϯϱϵ
FKORULGH YDOXHV XVLQJ WKH .+ H[FKDQJHU QLJHULFLQ DQG WKH &Oí2+í H[FKDQJHU
ϯϲϬ
WULEXW\OWLQFKORULGH ERWK DW —0 LQ D KLJK . +(3(6EXIIHUHG VROXWLRQ DW S+ DV
ϯϲϭ
GHVFULEHGSUHYLRXVO\%R\DUVN\HWDO.XQHUDQG$XJXVWLQH
ϯϲϮ
ϯϲϯ
'DWD DQDO\VLV DQG VWDWLVWLFV 'DWD DQG VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VHV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG XVLQJ 0DWODE
ϯϲϰ
5E 0DWK:RUNV DQG 6366 ,%0 $OO GDWD LV UHSRUWHG DV PHDQV “ 6( 6WDWLVWLFDO
ϯϲϱ
FRPSDULVRQV ZHUH PDGH XVLQJ HLWKHU SDLUHG RU XQSDLUHG 6WXGHQW
V WWHVWV DQG RQHZD\
ϯϲϲ
$129$VZLWKSRVWKRF'XQQHWWVLGHGFRUUHFWLRQV$OOVWDWLVWLFDOWHVWVZHUHWZRWDLOHGDQG
ϯϲϳ
DSYDOXHRIOHVVWKDQZDVGHHPHGVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQW
ϯϲϴ
ϭϰ
ϯϲϵ
5HVXOWV
ϯϳϬ
ϯϳϭ
*$%$%5V IRUP D SURWHLQ FRPSOH[ ZLWK WKH SRWDVVLXPFKORULGH WUDQVSRUWHU .&& DW
ϯϳϮ
WKHQHXURQDOPHPEUDQH
ϯϳϯ
:H XVHG D FRPELQDWLRQ RI FRLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWLRQ DQG PDVV VSHFWURPHWU\ WR LGHQWLI\
ϯϳϰ
IXQFWLRQDOO\ LPSRUWDQW FRPSRQHQWV RI *$%$%5 SURWHLQ FRPSOH[HV LQ WKH EUDLQ $Q DQWL
ϯϳϱ
*$%$%5 DQWLERG\ ZDV XVHG WR LVRODWH DQWLERG\SURWHLQ FRPSOH[HV IURP PHPEUDQH
ϯϳϲ
SUHSDUDWLRQVJHQHUDWHGIURPIUHVKO\GLVVHFWHGDGXOWUDWFRUWH[VHH0DWHULDOVDQG0HWKRGV
ϯϳϳ
$QDO\VLV RI WKH UHVXOWLQJ SHSWLGHV UHYHDOHG D VHULHV RI SURWHLQV WKDW KDYH SUHYLRXVO\ EHHQ
ϯϳϴ
VKRZQ WR DVVRFLDWH ZLWK WKH *$%$%5 LQFOXGLQJ *SURWHLQ VXEXQLWV %HWWOHU HW DO ϯϳϵ
SRWDVVLXP FKDQQHO WHWUDPHUL]DWLRQ SURWHLQV 6FKZHQN HW DO 1(0VHQVLWLYH IXVLRQ
ϯϴϬ
16) SURWHLQ 3RQWLHU HW DO DQG VLJQDOOLQJ SURWHLQV &RXYH HW DO ϯϴϭ
)LJXUH $ ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH PDVV VSHFWURPHWU\ UHYHDOHG D QRYHO SRWHQWLDO DVVRFLDWLRQ
ϯϴϮ
EHWZHHQ WKH *$%$%5 DQG WKH VROXWH FDUULHU IDPLO\ PHPEHU SURWHLQ 6/&$ DOVR
ϯϴϯ
NQRZQ DV WKH SRWDVVLXPFKORULGH FRWUDQVSRUWHU .&& )LJXUH $ $V ZLWK DOO RI WKH
ϯϴϰ
DVVRFLDWHGSURWHLQV.&&ZDVSUHVHQWLQWKUHHLQGHSHQGHQWQHXURQDOPHPEUDQHLVRODWHV
ϯϴϱ
ZKHUHLWZDVLGHQWLILHGIURP PXOWLSOHSHSWLGHVRQHDFKRFFDVLRQDQGGLGQRWDSSHDULQ,J*
ϯϴϲ
FRQWUROSUHFLSLWDWHV)LJXUH%
ϯϴϳ
.&&FRLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWHGUREXVWO\ZLWK*$%$%5ZKHQSURWHLQFRPSOH[HVZHUH
ϯϴϴ
LVRODWHGIURPUDWRUJDQRW\SLFKLSSRFDPSDOEUDLQVOLFHVXVLQJHLWKHUD*$%$%5)LJXUH%
ϯϴϵ
RUD.&&DQWLERG\)LJXUH&.&&FRLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWHGZLWKWKHWZRVSOLFHLVRIRUPV
ϯϵϬ
RIWKH*$%$%5VXEXQLW*$%$%5DDQG*$%$%5E)LJXUH&.&&DSSHDUHGDVWZR
ϯϵϭ
EDQGV N'D DQG N'D RQ LPPXQREORWV )LJXUH % & FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK SUHYLRXV
ϯϵϮ
UHSRUWVWKDW.&&FDQH[LVWDVERWKDPRQRPHUDQGDGLPHU%ODHVVHHWDO8YDURYHW
ϯϵϯ
DO 7KLV FRQILUPHG WKDW WKH DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ *$%$%5 DQG .&& LV SUHVHQW LQ
ϯϵϰ
RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO UDW EUDLQ VOLFHV DV ZHOO DV DFXWHO\ GLVVHFWHG UDW FRUWH[ DQG
ϭϱ
ϯϵϱ
UHYHDOHG WKDW WKH *$%$%5 DVVRFLDWHV ZLWK ERWK PRQRPHULF DQG GLPHULF IRUPV RI .&&
ϯϵϲ
DOWKRXJK LW LV QRW FOHDU LI WKLV LV D GLUHFW LQWHUDFWLRQ RU LI RWKHU SURWHLQV DUH LQYROYHG
ϯϵϳ
&RQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH ELRFKHPLFDO HYLGHQFH LPPXQRIOXRUHVFHQFH VWDLQLQJ LQ UDW RUJDQRW\SLF
ϯϵϴ
KLSSRFDPSDOVOLFHV3 SOXV',9DQGUDWGLVVRFLDWHG KLSSRFDPSDOFXOWXUHV(SOXV
ϯϵϵ
',9FRQILUPHGWKDWWKH*$%$%5DQG.&&DUHERWKIRXQGDWVRPDWLFDQGGHQGULWLF
ϰϬϬ
PHPEUDQHV DQG H[KLELW RYHUODSSLQJ ODEHOOLQJ )LJXUH ' ( 7KH LPPXQRIOXRUHVFHQFH
ϰϬϭ
SURWRFROLQGLVVRFLDWHGFXOWXUHVHQDEOHGXVWRH[DPLQHFRH[SUHVVLRQRIERWKSURWHLQVZLWKLQ
ϰϬϮ
WKHVDPHFHOOVHH0DWHULDOVDQG0HWKRGV)LJXUH(:HWKHUHIRUHTXDQWLILHGWKH*$%$%5
ϰϬϯ
DQG.&&VWDLQLQJSDWWHUQLQWKHGLVVRFLDWHGKLSSRFDPSDOQHXURQVDQGIRXQGWKDWWKHYDVW
ϰϬϰ
PDMRULW\ H[KLELWHG RYHUODSSLQJ ODEHOOLQJ DW WKH PHPEUDQH FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK FRORFDOL]DWLRQ RI
ϰϬϱ
WKHSURWHLQVRXWRI*$%$%5SRVLWLYHFHOOV
ϰϬϲ
7R IXUWKHU FKDUDFWHUL]H WKH DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ *$%$%5V DQG .&& ZH XVHG D
ϰϬϳ
KHWHURORJRXV &+2 FHOO OLQH WKDW FRQVWLWXWLYHO\ H[SUHVVHV UDW *$%$%5E DQG *$%$%5
ϰϬϴ
µ&+2*$%$%5E5¶3RQWLHUHWDO*$%$%5EIURPWKLVFHOOOLQHZDVGHWHFWHGDV
ϰϬϵ
PXOWLSOH EDQGV RQ LPPXQREORWV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK GLIIHUHQWLDO JO\FRV\ODWLRQ RI WKH *$%$%5E
ϰϭϬ
SURWHLQ LQ WKLV V\VWHP )LJXUH $ &+2 *$%$%5E5 ZDV WUDQVIHFWHG ZLWK UHFRPELQDQW
ϰϭϭ
YHUVLRQV RI UDW .&& IXVHG WR JUHHQ IOXRUHVFHQW SURWHLQ *)3 &RLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWLRQ
ϰϭϮ
H[SHULPHQWV XVLQJ DQWLERGLHV DJDLQVW HLWKHU *$%$%5 .&& )LJXUH % RU *)3 )LJXUH
ϰϭϯ
( FRQILUPHG WKDW WKH DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ *$%$%5V DQG IXOO OHQJWK .&& )/.&&
ϰϭϰ
FRXOGEHUHFRQVWLWXWHGLQWKLVV\VWHP.&&LVSUHGLFWHGWRFRQVLVWRIDF\WRSODVPLFDPLQR
ϰϭϱ
WHUPLQDOGRPDLQDQGDF\WRSODVPLFFDUER[\WHUPLQDOGRPDLQHLWKHUVLGHRIDWUDQVPHPEUDQH
ϰϭϲ
GRPDLQ WKDW FRQWDLQV WUDQVPHPEUDQH KHOLFHV )LJXUH & 3D\QH HW DO :H
ϰϭϳ
JHQHUDWHG *)3IXVLRQV RI .&& WKDW ZHUH FRPSULVHG RI RQO\ WKH DPLQRWHUPLQDO GRPDLQ
ϰϭϴ
17'RQO\WKHFDUER[\WHUPLQDOGRPDLQ&7'RURQO\WKHWUDQVPHPEUDQHGRPDLQ70'
ϰϭϵ
,Q DGGLWLRQ ZH JHQHUDWHG *)3IXVLRQV RI .&& WKDW ODFNHG HLWKHU WKH DPLQRWHUPLQDO
ϰϮϬ
GRPDLQ70'&7'RUWKHFDUER[\WHUPLQDOGRPDLQ17'70'%LRWLQ\ODWLRQH[SHULPHQWV
ϰϮϭ
FRQILUPHG WKDW HDFK RI WKH IXVLRQ SURWHLQV FRQWDLQLQJ WKH WUDQVPHPEUDQH GRPDLQ ZDV
ϭϲ
ϰϮϮ
WUDIILFNHGDWOHDVWLQSDUWWRWKHFHOOVXUIDFHLQ&+2FHOOV)LJXUH'7KLVLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWK
ϰϮϯ
SUHYLRXVVWXGLHVWKDWKDYHVKRZQWKDW.&&F\WRSODVPLFGRPDLQV1DQG&WHUPLQDODUHQRW
ϰϮϰ
HVVHQWLDOIRUPHPEUDQHGHOLYHU\LQKHWHURORJRXVFHOOV\VWHPV&DVXODHWDO/LHWDO
ϰϮϱ
:HWKHQSHUIRUPHGFRLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWLRQH[SHULPHQWVWRHVWDEOLVKWKH.&&UHJLRQ
ϰϮϲ
UHVSRQVLEOH IRU WKH DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK *$%$%5V 7KHVH UHYHDOHG WKDW *$%$%5V FDQ IRUP D
ϰϮϳ
FRPSOH[ ZLWK YHUVLRQV RI .&& WKDW ODFN ERWK LQWUDFHOOXODU WHUPLQDO GRPDLQV +RZHYHU
ϰϮϴ
*$%$%5V GR QRW DVVRFLDWH ZLWK YHUVLRQV RI .&& WKDW ODFN WKH WUDQVPHPEUDQH GRPDLQ
ϰϮϵ
)LJXUH ( 7KH DVVRFLDWLRQ DSSHDUV VSHFLILF DV DQRWKHU WUDQVPHPEUDQH SURWHLQ WKH
ϰϯϬ
WUDQVIHUULQUHFHSWRUZDVQRWIRXQGLQWKH.&&LVRODWHV)LJXUH)7KXV.&&DVVRFLDWHV
ϰϯϭ
ZLWKWKH*$%$%5YLDLWVWUDQVPHPEUDQHGRPDLQZKLFKLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHLGHDWKDW.&&
ϰϯϮ
DQG*$%$%5FDQIRUPDSURWHLQFRPSOH[DWWKHQHXURQDOPHPEUDQH
ϰϯϯ
ϰϯϰ
*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQDIIHFWVWUDQVPHPEUDQHFKORULGHJUDGLHQWV
ϰϯϱ
6LJQDOOLQJ LQWHUDFWLRQVDFURVV *$%$%5SURWHLQFRPSOH[HVKDYHEHHQVKRZQWREHFDSDEOH
ϰϯϲ
RIPRGXODWLQJWKHDFWLYLW\RIERWKWKHUHFHSWRUDQGLWVDVVRFLDWHGSURWHLQV3DUNHWDO
ϰϯϳ
&LUXHODHWDOE3RQWLHUHWDO%DODVXEUDPDQLDQHWDO*LYHQWKHHYLGHQFH
ϰϯϴ
WKDW WKH *$%$%5 DQG .&& FDQ DVVRFLDWH DW WKH PHPEUDQH ZH LQYHVWLJDWHG ZKHWKHU
ϰϯϵ
DFWLYDWLRQ RI WKH *$%$%5 FDQ LQIOXHQFH KRZ .&& FRQWULEXWHV WR WUDQVPHPEUDQH FKORULGH
ϰϰϬ
JUDGLHQWV 7R DVVHVV .&& IXQFWLRQ LQWUDFHOOXODU FKORULGH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ >&O@L ZDV
ϰϰϭ
PRQLWRUHGE\FDOFXODWLQJWKHUHYHUVDOSRWHQWLDORIWKHLRQRWURSLF*$%$$5(*$%$$7RDYRLG
ϰϰϮ
GLVUXSWLQJ >&O@L JUDPLFLGLQ SHUIRUDWHG SDWFK FODPS UHFRUGLQJV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG IURP &$
ϰϰϯ
S\UDPLGDOQHXURQVLQUDWRUJDQRW\SLFKLSSRFDPSDOVOLFHV3SOXV',91HXURQVZHUH
ϰϰϰ
FODPSHG DW D VHULHV RI PHPEUDQH SRWHQWLDOV DQG *$%$$5 FXUUHQWV ZHUH HYRNHG E\
ϰϰϱ
GHOLYHULQJEULHISXIIVRIWKHVHOHFWLYH*$%$$5DJRQLVWPXVFLPROȝ0RQWRWKHFHOOVRPD
ϰϰϲ
7KHPHDQUHVWLQJPHPEUDQHSRWHQWLDOZDV“P9FRPSDUHGWRDQ(*$%$$YDOXHRI
ϭϳ
ϰϰϳ
“P9Q 7KXVWKHQHXURQVGLVSOD\HGDPDWXUHK\SHUSRODUL]LQJ(*$%$$SURILOH
ϰϰϴ
DWWKHWLPHRIUHFRUGLQJFRQVLVWHQWZLWK.&&H[SUHVVLRQDQGIXQFWLRQ)LJXUH$
ϰϰϵ
7R LQYHVWLJDWH ZKHWKHUDJRQLVW DFWLYDWLRQ RI *$%$%5V PHGLDWHV IXQFWLRQDO FKDQJHV
ϰϱϬ
LQ >&O@L (*$%$$ ZDV PHDVXUHG EHIRUH DQG DIWHU WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH VSHFLILF *$%$%5
ϰϱϭ
DJRQLVW6.)ȝ0*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQZDVIRXQGWRUHVXOWLQDGHSRODUL]LQJVKLIWLQ
ϰϱϮ
(*$%$$ ZKLFK ZDV HYLGHQW PLQ IROORZLQJ *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ DQG SHUVLVWHG IRU WKH
ϰϱϯ
UHPDLQGHURIWKHUHFRUGLQJ)LJXUH$±'$FURVVDSRSXODWLRQRI&$S\UDPLGDOQHXURQV
ϰϱϰ
WKHPHDQ(*$%$$VKLIWHGIURPDEDVHOLQHYDOXHRI“P9WR“P9IROORZLQJ
ϰϱϱ
*$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ 7KLV UHSUHVHQWHG D PHDQ FKDQJH LQ (*$%$$ RI “ P9 p
ϰϱϲ
Q SDLUHGWWHVW)LJXUH',QFRQWUROH[SHULPHQWVEORFNLQJ*$%$%5VZLWKD
ϰϱϳ
VHOHFWLYH FRPSHWLWLYH DQWDJRQLVW ȝ0 &*3 SUHYHQWHG WKH FKDQJH LQ (*$%$$ LQ
ϰϱϴ
UHVSRQVH WR 6.) p Q SDLUHG WWHVW 7KLV FRQILUPHG WKDW WKH HIIHFWV ZHUH
ϰϱϵ
VSHFLILFWRWKH*$%$%5DQGQRWDOWHUQDWLYHUHFHSWRUVVXFKDVWKH*$%$&5
ϰϲϬ
)XUWKHU H[SHULPHQWV HVWDEOLVKHG WKDW WKH *$%$%5PHGLDWHG HIIHFW UHTXLUHV
ϰϲϭ
DVVRFLDWHG *SURWHLQV EXW LV LQGHSHQGHQW RI GRZQVWUHDP *SURWHLQ FRXSOHG LQZDUGO\
ϰϲϮ
UHFWLI\LQJ SRWDVVLXP *,5. FKDQQHOV )LUVW *SURWHLQ VLJQDOOLQJ YLD WKH *$%$%5 ZDV
ϰϲϯ
GLVUXSWHGE\SUHWUHDWLQJWKHRUJDQRW\SLFKLSSRFDPSDOVOLFHVZLWKWKH*LSURWHLQDQWDJRQLVW
ϰϲϰ
SHUWXVVLV WR[LQ 37; —JPO IRU K SULRU WR UHFRUGLQJV :H FRXOG FRQILUP WKDW 37;
ϰϲϱ
WUHDWPHQWGLGGLVUXSW*$%$%5*SURWHLQFRXSOHGVLJQDOLQJEHFDXVHWKH6.)HYRNHG
ϰϲϲ
PHPEUDQHFXUUHQWWKDWLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWK*,5.FKDQQHODFWLYLW\ZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\VPDOOHULQ
ϰϲϳ
37;WUHDWHGQHXURQV“S$DWDKROGLQJSRWHQWLDORIP9Q WKDQLQFRQWURO
ϰϲϴ
QHXURQV “ S$ Q p $129$ IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW
ϰϲϵ
FRUUHFWLRQ )LJXUH ( ,PSRUWDQWO\ ZKHQ ZH H[DPLQHG WKH 6.)LQGXFHG HIIHFW XSRQ
ϰϳϬ
(*$%$$ZHIRXQGWKDWWKLVZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\LQKLELWHGDIWHU37;WUHDWPHQW7KHPHDQ(*$%$$
ϰϳϭ
EDVHOLQH IRU 37;WUHDWHG FHOOV ZDV “ P9 DQG VKRZHG OLWWOH FKDQJH IROORZLQJ
ϰϳϮ
6.)WUHDWPHQWZKHQLWZDV“P97KLVZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\GLIIHUHQWWRWKHHIIHFW
ϭϴ
ϰϳϯ
REVHUYHG LQ FRQWURO FHOOV p Q DQG Q UHVSHFWLYHO\ $129$ IROORZHG E\
ϰϳϰ
SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ )LJXUH ) ,Q FRQWUDVW XVLQJ 6&+ —0
ϰϳϱ
.X]KLNDQGDWKLODQG2[IRUGWREORFNWKHGRZQVWUHDP*,5.FKDQQHOVGLUHFWO\GLGQRW
ϰϳϲ
SUHYHQWWKH6.)LQGXFHGFKDQJHLQ(*$%$$7KHHIILFDF\RIWKH*,5.FKDQQHOEORFNE\
ϰϳϳ
6&+ZDVHYLGHQWIURPWKHVLJQLILFDQWUHGXFWLRQLQWKH6.)HYRNHGFXUUHQW
ϰϳϴ
“S$LQ6&+WUHDWHGQHXURQVFRPSDUHGWR“S$LQFRQWUROQHXURQVQ ϰϳϵ
DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ p $129$ IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ )LJXUH
ϰϴϬ
(+RZHYHUXQGHUWKHVHFRQGLWLRQVRI*,5.FKDQQHOEORFNWKHPHDQ(*$%$$VWLOOVKRZHGD
ϰϴϭ
GHSRODUL]LQJ VKLIW IURP “ P9 WR “ P9 IROORZLQJ 6.) DSSOLFDWLRQ
ϰϴϮ
ZKLFKZDVDVLPLODUVKLIWWRWKDWREVHUYHGLQFRQWUROFHOOVp Q $129$IROORZHG
ϰϴϯ
E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ )LJXUH ) $ VHSDUDWH VHW RI H[SHULPHQWV UHYHDOHG WKDW
ϰϴϰ
(*$%$$ ZDV QRW DIIHFWHG E\ WKH DFWLYDWLRQ RI SRVWV\QDSWLF DGHQRVLQH UHFHSWRUV WKH PRVW
ϰϴϱ
DEXQGDQW EHLQJ WKH PHWDERWURSLF $ UHFHSWRU ZKLFK OLNH WKH *$%$%5 LV *LFRXSOHG DQG
ϰϴϲ
WDUJHWVUHFWLI\LQJSRWDVVLXPFKDQQHOV7DNLJDZDDQG$O]KHLPHU&LUXHODHWDOD
ϰϴϳ
7KH PHDQ (*$%$$ XQGHU EDVHOLQH FRQGLWLRQV ZDV “ P9 DQG ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\
ϰϴϴ
GLIIHUHQW IROORZLQJ DFWLYDWLRQ ZLWK DGHQRVLQH —0 DW “ P9 S Q ϰϴϵ
SDLUHGWWHVW7KHVHGDWDVXSSRUWWKHFRQFOXVLRQWKDWWKHHIIHFWRI*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQXSRQ
ϰϵϬ
(*$%$$ LV VSHFLILF WR D *$%$%5 SURWHLQ FRPSOH[ EXW GRHV QRW LQYROYH WKH DFWLYDWLRQ RI
ϰϵϭ
GRZQVWUHDPSRWDVVLXPFKDQQHOV
ϰϵϮ
7R FRQILUP WKDW WKH HIIHFW RI *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ ZDV YLD FKDQJHV LQ >&O@L &$
ϰϵϯ
S\UDPLGDO QHXURQV LQ RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFHV ZHUH WUDQVIHFWHG ZLWK D )5(7EDVHG
ϰϵϰ
FKORULGH UHSRUWHU SURWHLQ FDOOHG µ&O6HQVRU¶ 0DUNRYD HW DO )LJXUH * :KLOH WKHUH
ϰϵϱ
ZDVQRFKDQJHLQFKORULGHFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQFRQWUROQHXURQVH[SUHVVLQJWKH&O6HQVRUSURWHLQ
ϰϵϲ
p SDLUHGWWHVWQ )LJXUH+DFWLYDWLRQRI*$%$%5VZLWK6.)ȝ0IRU
ϰϵϳ
PLQUHVXOWHGLQDVLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHLQWKH>&O@L p SDLUHGWWHVWQ )LJXUH
ϰϵϴ
+7KHFKDQJHLQ>&O@LZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\JUHDWHULQWKH6.)WUHDWHGQHXURQVWKDQLQ
ϰϵϵ
WKHFRQWUROQHXURQVLPDJHGRYHUWKHVDPHWLPHSHULRGp Q DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\
ϱϬϬ
WWHVW)LJXUH,7DNHQWRJHWKHUWKHVHGDWDVKRZWKDWDFWLYDWLRQRIWKH*$%$%5FDQOHDGWR
ϭϵ
ϱϬϭ
D FKDQJH LQ LQWUDFHOOXODU FKORULGH UHJXODWLRQ WKDW LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK D GHFUHDVH LQ .&&
ϱϬϮ
IXQFWLRQ
ϱϬϯ
ϱϬϰ
*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQFDQUHJXODWH.&&DWWKHPHPEUDQH
ϱϬϱ
7R GLUHFWO\ WHVW WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ PRGXODWHV .&& IXQFWLRQ DW WKH
ϱϬϲ
PHPEUDQHZHSHUIRUPHGDFRPELQDWLRQRIHOHFWURSK\VLRORJLFDOUHFRUGLQJVDQGELRWLQ\ODWLRQ
ϱϬϳ
H[SHULPHQWV)LUVWWRHVWDEOLVKWKDWWKH*$%$%5PHGLDWHGVKLIW LQ(*$%$$RFFXUVWKURXJKD
ϱϬϴ
UHGXFWLRQLQ.&&IXQFWLRQFHOOVZHUHH[SRVHGWRIXURVHPLGHZKLFKEORFNV.&&DFWLYLW\
ϱϬϵ
&$ S\UDPLGDO QHXURQV H[SRVHG WR IXURVHPLGH P0 H[KLELWHG D VLJQLILFDQWO\ PRUH
ϱϭϬ
GHSRODUL]HGUHVWLQJ(*$%$$“P9Q WKDQXQWUHDWHGFRQWUROFHOOV“
ϱϭϭ
P9 Q p
ϱϭϮ
IXURVHPLGHLQGXFHG VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ ZDV HYLGHQW ZLWKLQ PLQXWHV KLJKOLJKWLQJ WKDW .&&
ϱϭϯ
IXQFWLRQV WR FRQWLQXRXVO\ PDLQWDLQ WKH K\SHUSRODUL]HG (*$%$$ XQGHU WKHVH FRQGLWLRQV
ϱϭϰ
,PSRUWDQWO\ DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH *$%$%5 DJRQLVW 6.) LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI IXURVHPLGH
ϱϭϱ
IDLOHG WR SURGXFH DQ\ IXUWKHU FKDQJH LQ (*$%$$ “ P9 )LJXUH $ DQG '
ϱϭϲ
&RPSDUHGWRFRQWUROFHOOVWKHHIIHFWRI6.)XSRQ(*$%$$ZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\DWWHQXDWHG
ϱϭϳ
LQIXURVHPLGHWUHDWHGFHOOV“P9p
ϱϭϴ
FRUUHFWLRQ)LJXUH)
$129$ IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ )LJXUH ( 7KH
$129$IROORZHGE\SRVWKRF'XQQHWW
ϱϭϵ
$V IXURVHPLGH FDQ EORFN PXOWLSOH FRWUDQVSRUWHU SURWHLQV WKLV H[SHULPHQW FRXOG QRW
ϱϮϬ
H[FOXGH D FRQWULEXWLRQ E\ WKH VRGLXPSRWDVVLXPFKORULGH FRWUDQVSRUWHU SURWHLQ 1.&&
ϱϮϭ
ZKLFK KDV DOVR EHHQ VKRZQ WR FRQWULEXWH WR >&O@L UHJXODWLRQ LQ KLSSRFDPSDO S\UDPLGDO
ϱϮϮ
QHXURQVSDUWLFXODUO\GXULQJGHYHORSPHQW']KDODHWDO:HWKHUHIRUHH[DPLQHGWKH
ϱϮϯ
HIIHFW RI *$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQ LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI EXPHWDQLGH D PRUH VHOHFWLYH EORFNHU RI
ϱϮϰ
1.&& 7KH EDVHOLQH (*$%$$ DIWHU LQFXEDWLRQ ZLWK EXPHWDQLGH ZDV VLPLODU WR XQWUHDWHG
ϱϮϱ
FRQWURO FHOOV LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW 1.&& GRHV QRW PDNH D PDMRU FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH >&O@L
ϮϬ
ϱϮϲ
PHDVXUHGLQWKHVHQHXURQV(*$%$$ “P9Q p $129$IROORZHGE\
ϱϮϳ
SRVWKRF'XQQHWWFRUUHFWLRQ)LJXUH%DQG&)XUWKHUPRUHEXPHWDQLGHWUHDWPHQWGLGQRW
ϱϮϴ
SUHYHQW WKH GHSRODUL]LQJ VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ IROORZLQJ *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ 8SRQ 6.)
ϱϮϵ
DSSOLFDWLRQ WKH PHDQ (*$%$$ VKLIWHG WR D QHZ YDOXH RI “ P9 D FKDQJH WKDW ZDV
ϱϯϬ
LQGLVWLQJXLVKDEOHWRWKDWVHHQLQFRQWUROFHOOV“P9p $129$IROORZHGE\
ϱϯϭ
SRVWKRF'XQQHWWFRUUHFWLRQ)LJXUH(DQG)*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQOHGWRDQHTXLYDOHQWVKLIW
ϱϯϮ
LQ (*$%$$ LQ FHOOV WUHDWHG ZLWK ERWK —0 EXPHWDQLGH EDVHOLQH (*$%$$ “ P9
ϱϯϯ
6.)WUHDWHG(*$%$$ “P9FKDQJH “P9p Q RU
ϱϯϰ
—0EXPHWDQLGHEDVHOLQH(*$%$$ “P96.)WUHDWHG(*$%$$ “
ϱϯϱ
P9 FKDQJH “ P9 p Q $129$ IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW
ϱϯϲ
FRUUHFWLRQ 7KHVHGDWD GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW.&&LV WKH PHGLDWRU RI WKH*$%$%5GHSHQGHQW
ϱϯϳ
HIIHFW XSRQ (*$%$$ ,I WKLV LV WKH FDVH RQH SUHGLFWLRQ LV WKDW RWKHU PDQLSXODWLRQV WKDW
ϱϯϴ
GRZQUHJXODWH .&& SURWHLQ OHYHOV VKRXOG DWWHQXDWH WKH HIIHFWV RI *$%$%5PHGLDWHG
ϱϯϵ
DFWLYDWLRQXSRQ(*$%$$7RWHVWWKLVLGHDZHPDLQWDLQHGRUJDQRW\SLFKLSSRFDPSDOEUDLQVOLFHV
ϱϰϬ
LQD]HUR0J $&6)IRUKUVZKLFKKDVEHHQVKRZQWRFDXVHDUREXVWUHGXFWLRQLQ.&&
ϱϰϭ
OHYHOV DQG D GHSRODUL]LQJ VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ 3XVNDUMRY HW DO &RQVLVWHQW ZLWK SUHYLRXV
ϱϰϮ
UHSRUWV WKH ]HUR 0J $&6) UHVXOWHG LQ D GHSRODUL]LQJ VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ WR “ P9
ϱϰϯ
,PSRUWDQWO\ DFWLYDWLQJ *$%$%5V ZLWK 6.) LQ VOLFHV WKDW KDG EHHQ WUHDWHG LQ WKLV
ϱϰϰ
PDQQHUFDXVHGQRIXUWKHUFKDQJHLQ(*$%$$“P9Q p WWHVW7DNHQ
ϱϰϱ
WRJHWKHUWKHVHGDWDFRQILUPWKDW.&&LVWKHSULQFLSOHPHGLDWRURIWKH*$%$%5GHSHQGHQW
ϱϰϲ
HIIHFWXSRQ>&O@L
ϱϰϳ
7R LQYHVWLJDWH ZKHWKHU WKH *$%$%5PHGLDWHG GHFUHDVH LQ .&& IXQFWLRQ LQYROYHG
ϱϰϴ
UHJXODWLRQRIWKHWUDQVSRUWHUSURWHLQDWWKHFHOOPHPEUDQHZHXVHGELRWLQ\ODWLRQPHWKRGVWR
ϱϰϵ
LVRODWHVXUIDFH.&&IURPUDWRUJDQRW\SLFKLSSRFDPSDOVOLFHV7KLVDSSURDFKKDVEHHQXVHG
ϱϱϬ
ZLGHO\ DV D ZD\ WR TXDQWLI\ FKDQJHV LQ WKH SODVPDOHPPDO OHYHO RI FKORULGH WUDQVSRUWHU
ϱϱϭ
SURWHLQV LQ QHXURQDO WLVVXH 5LYHUD HW DO 7KRPDV&UXVVHOV HW DO /HH HW DO
ϱϱϮ
=KDR HW DO +DYLQJ LVRODWHG VXUIDFH .&& SURWHLQ ZH XVHG TXDQWLWDWLYH
Ϯϭ
ϱϱϯ
ZHVWHUQEORWDQDO\VLVWRH[SUHVVWKHDPRXQWRIVXUIDFH.&&SURWHLQDVDUDWLRRIWKHWRWDO
ϱϱϰ
.&& SURWHLQ VXUIDFHWRWDO .&& VHH 0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV H[SHULPHQWV UHYHDOHG WKDW
ϱϱϱ
DIWHUPLQRI6.)ȝ0DSSOLFDWLRQWKHUHZDVDUHGXFWLRQLQ.&&OHYHOVDWWKHFHOO
ϱϱϲ
VXUIDFH ZKHQ FRPSDUHG WR FRQWURO VOLFHV WKDW ZHUH UXQ LQ SDUDOOHO EXW QRW H[SRVHG WR WKH
ϱϱϳ
*$%$%5DJRQLVW)LJXUH$DQG'0RQRPHULFDQGGLPHULFIRUPVRI.&&ZHUHGHWHFWHG
ϱϱϴ
DW WKH FHOO VXUIDFH DQG HDFK VKRZHG D VLJQLILFDQW UHGXFWLRQ ZLWK 6.) H[SRVXUH
ϱϱϵ
FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ OHDGV WR D UHGXFWLRQ LQ PHPEUDQH
ϱϲϬ
ERXQG.&&SURWHLQV0RQRPHULF.&&DWWKHFHOOVXUIDFHZDVUHGXFHGWR“RI
ϱϲϭ
FRQWUROOHYHOVp Q WWHVWZKLOHGLPHULF.&&ZDVUHGXFHGWR“RI
ϱϲϮ
FRQWUROOHYHOVp Q WWHVW)LJXUH$DQG'7KHHIIHFWZDVVSHFLILFWR.&&
ϱϲϯ
DVVXUIDFH OHYHOVRIWKHWUDQVIHUULQ UHFHSWRU7I5“p Q WWHVWDQG
ϱϲϰ
1.&&“p Q WWHVWZHUHQRWVWDWLVWLFDOO\GLIIHUHQWEHWZHHQFRQWURO
ϱϲϱ
DQG6.)WUHDWHGVOLFHV)LJXUH&DQG'
ϱϲϲ
7KH HIIHFWV XSRQ VXUIDFH .&& GLG QRW DSSHDU WR LQYROYH GHJUDGDWLRQ DV WKH WRWDO
ϱϲϳ
DPRXQW RI .&& SURWHLQ ZDV QRW GLIIHUHQW EHWZHHQ FRQWURO DQG 6.)WUHDWHG VOLFHV
ϱϲϴ
:KHQ H[DPLQHG DIWHU WKH VDPH SHULRG RI 6.) DSSOLFDWLRQ ȝ0 IRU PLQ WKH
ϱϲϵ
QRUPDOL]HG OHYHOV RI WRWDO .&& PRQRPHU ZHUH “ RI FRQWURO DQG WRWDO .&&
ϱϳϬ
GLPHU ZDV “ RI FRQWURO p DQG p UHVSHFWLYHO\ Q WWHVW
ϱϳϭ
)XUWKHUZKHQZHUHSHDWHGWKHVHH[SHULPHQWVDWWKHODWHUWLPHSRLQWRIPLQRI6.)
ϱϳϮ
DSSOLFDWLRQZHDJDLQIRXQGQRHYLGHQFHIRUGHJUDGDWLRQWKHQRUPDOL]HGOHYHOVRIWRWDO.&&
ϱϳϯ
PRQRPHU ZHUH “ RI FRQWURO DQG WRWDO .&& GLPHU ZDV “ RI
ϱϳϰ
FRQWURO p DQG p UHVSHFWLYHO\ Q WWHVW ,QWHUHVWLQJO\ DW WKLV ODWHU WLPH
ϱϳϱ
SRLQWDQ HIIHFW XSRQ VXUIDFH .&& ZDV DOVR QRW GHWHFWDEOH VXUIDFHWRWDO .&& PRQRPHU
ϱϳϲ
ZDV“RIFRQWURODQGVXUIDFHWRWDO.&&GLPHUZDV“RIFRQWUROp ϱϳϳ
DQGp UHVSHFWLYHO\Q WWHVW7KHVHGDWDVXJJHVWWKDW*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQ
ϱϳϴ
GRHVQRWOHDGWR.&&GHJUDGDWLRQEXWFDQUDWKHUDIIHFWWKHVXUIDFHWUDIILFNLQJHQGRF\WRVLV
ϱϳϵ
DQGUHF\FOLQJRI.&&
ϮϮ
ϱϴϬ
*$%$%5 G\QDPLFV DW WKH FHOO VXUIDFH FDQ EH DIIHFWHG XSRQ UHFHSWRU DFWLYDWLRQ
ϱϴϭ
/DIIUD\HWDO*UDPSSHWDO:LONLQVHWDOVXJJHVWLQJWKDWFKDQJHVWR
ϱϴϮ
VXUIDFHWUDIILFNLQJRI.&&FRXOGEHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKFKDQJHVWRVXUIDFH*$%$%5V,QGHHG
ϱϴϯ
RXU HOHFWURSK\VLRORJLFDO UHFRUGLQJV UHYHDOHG WKDW 6.)HYRNHG FXUUHQWV WHQGHG WR
ϱϴϰ
GHFUHDVHLQWKHFRQWLQXHGSUHVHQFHRIWKHDJRQLVWDGHFUHDVHRI“IURP“
ϱϴϱ
S$WR“S$ZLWKPLQRI6.)H[SRVXUHQ S SDLUHGW
ϱϴϲ
WHVWLQGLFDWLQJWKDWWKHUHPD\EHDQDJRQLVWGHSHQGHQWFKDQJHLQ*$%$%5VLJQDOOLQJDWWKH
ϱϴϳ
FHOO VXUIDFH 7R LQYHVWLJDWH WKLV ELRFKHPLFDOO\ ZH XVHG RXU TXDQWLWDWLYH ZHVWHUQ EORW
ϱϴϴ
PHWKRGVWRH[DPLQH*$%$%5EHKDYLRXUDIWHUH[SRVXUHWR6.)DQGIRXQGWKDWDWWKH
ϱϴϵ
VDPH WLPH SRLQW WKDW VXUIDFH .&& LV UHGXFHG )LJXUH $ DQG ' OHYHOV RI VXUIDFH
ϱϵϬ
*$%$%5V ZHUH DOVR UHGXFHG 6.)WUHDWPHQW ȝ0 IRU PLQ UHGXFHG *$%$%5
ϱϵϭ
VXUIDFH H[SUHVVLRQ LQ WKH RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFHV WR “ RI FRQWURO p
ϱϵϮ
Q WWHVW )LJXUH % DQG ' 0HDQZKLOH FRLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWLRQ H[SHULPHQWV
ϱϵϯ
UHYHDOHGWKDWWKHDPRXQWRI.&&SXOOHGGRZQLQ*$%$%5FRPSOH[HVZDVQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\
ϱϵϰ
GLIIHUHQW EHWZHHQ 6.)WUHDWHG DQG PDWFKHG FRQWURO VOLFHV p
ϱϵϱ
)LJXUH ( 7R LQYHVWLJDWH ZKHWKHU WKH LQWHUQDOLVDWLRQ RI .&& YLD *$%$%5V FRXOG EH
ϱϵϲ
UHFRQVWLWXWHG LQ WKH KHWHURORJRXV &+2 FHOO V\VWHP ZH DSSOLHG 6.) WR &+2
ϱϵϳ
*$%$%5E5 WUDQVLHQWO\ H[SUHVVLQJ )/.&& ,Q WKLV V\VWHP WKHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW
ϱϵϴ
HIIHFWXSRQVXUIDFHOHYHOVRIHLWKHU*$%$%5“RIFRQWUROp Q W
ϱϵϵ
WHVW RU .&& “ RI FRQWURO p
ϲϬϬ
PHFKDQLVP PD\ EH VHQVLWLYH WR H[SUHVVLRQ OHYHOV SRVWWUDQVODWLRQDO PRGLILFDWLRQV RU WKDW
ϲϬϭ
LQWHUPHGLDU\SURWHLQVDUHLQYROYHGLQUHJXODWLQJVXUIDFHH[SUHVVLRQLQQHXURQV
ϲϬϮ
ϲϬϯ
*$%$%5UHJXODWLRQRI.&&LQYROYHVFODWKULQPHGLDWHGHQGRF\WRVLV
ϲϬϰ
%RWK *$%$%5V DQG .&& XQGHUJR HQGRF\WRVLV YLD WKH FODWKULQPHGLDWHG HQGRF\WRWLF
ϲϬϱ
SDWKZD\*UDPSSHWDO9DUJDVHWDO/DIIUD\HWDO=KDRHWDO
Q WWHVW
Q WWHVW VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW WKH
Ϯϯ
ϲϬϲ
,QGHHGFODWKULQPHGLDWHGHQGRF\WRVLVFRQWULEXWHVWRWKHFRQVWLWXWLYHPHPEUDQHUHF\FOLQJRI
ϲϬϳ
*$%$%5VZKLFKFDQEHDFFHOHUDWHGE\UHFHSWRUDFWLYDWLRQ/DIIUD\HWDO*UDPSSHW
ϲϬϴ
DO *UDPSS HW DO 2QH SRVVLELOLW\ WKHUHIRUH LV WKDW WKH FODWKULQPHGLDWHG
ϲϬϵ
HQGRF\WRWLFSDWKZD\LVLPSRUWDQWIRUWKHFKDQJHLQVXUIDFH.&&WKDWUHVXOWVIURP*$%$%5
ϲϭϬ
DFWLYDWLRQ 7R WHVW WKLV ZH XVHG D VHOHFWLYH EORFNHU RI WKH FODWKULQPHGLDWHG HQGRF\WRWLF
ϲϭϭ
SDWKZD\ GDQV\OFDGDYHULQH '& ,PSRUWDQWO\ &$ S\UDPLGDO QHXURQV SUHWUHDWHG ZLWK '&
ϲϭϮ
ȝ0IDLOHGWRVKRZDFKDQJHLQ(*$%$$IROORZLQJ*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQ)LJXUH$DQG%
ϲϭϯ
(*$%$$ VKLIWHG IURP D PHDQ EDVHOLQH RI “ P9 WR “ P9 IROORZLQJ
ϲϭϰ
6.)WUHDWPHQWDVKLIWRIMXVW“P9Q ZKLFKZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\VPDOOHU
ϲϭϱ
WKDQWKHFKDQJHREVHUYHGLQFRQWUROFHOOVH[SRVHGWR6.)Q p $129$
ϲϭϲ
IROORZHGE\SRVWKRF'XQQHWWFRUUHFWLRQ)LJXUH('&WUHDWHGQHXURQVDOVRIDLOHGWRVKRZ
ϲϭϳ
DGHFUHDVHLQWKHDPSOLWXGHRI6.)HYRNHGFXUUHQWVLQWKHFRQWLQXHGSUHVHQFHRIWKH
ϲϭϴ
DJRQLVW D GHFUHDVH RI “ IURP “ S$ WR “ S$ ZLWK PLQ RI
ϲϭϵ
6.)H[SRVXUHQ S SDLUHGWWHVWVXJJHVWLQJ QRQHWFKDQJHLQ *$%$%5
ϲϮϬ
VLJQDOOLQJ DW WKH FHOO VXUIDFH )LQDOO\ FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKHVH HOHFWURSK\VLRORJLFDO UHFRUGLQJV
ϲϮϭ
WKHUHGXFWLRQLQOHYHOVRIVXUIDFH.&&IROORZLQJ*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQȝ06.)IRU
ϲϮϮ
PLQZDVUHGXFHGZKHQFODWKULQPHGLDWHGHQGRF\WRVLVZDVEORFNHGZLWK'&ȝ0Q p
ϲϮϯ
)LJXUH ) DQG + 'LVUXSWLQJ WKH FODWKULQPHGLDWHG HQGRF\WRWLF SDWKZD\ WKHUHIRUH
ϲϮϰ
RFFOXGHVWKH*$%$%5PHGLDWHGFKDQJHLQVXUIDFH.&&
ϲϮϱ
.&&IXQFWLRQKDVDOVREHHQUHSRUWHGWREHPRGXODWHGE\&DGHSHQGHQWNLQDVHV
ϲϮϲ
SKRVSKDWDVHVDQGSURWHDVHV)LXPHOOLHWDO/HHHWDO:DNHHWDO;XHW
ϲϮϳ
DO:DWDQDEHHWDO/HHHWDO3XVNDUMRYHWDO7RWHVWZKHWKHU
ϲϮϴ
WKH *$%$%5GHSHQGHQW PRGXODWLRQ RI .&& LQYROYHV LQWUDFHOOXODU &D VLJQDOOLQJ
ϲϮϵ
KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFHV ZHUH WUHDWHG ZLWK D FRPELQDWLRQ RI &D FKDQQHO EORFNHUV DQG
ϲϯϬ
LQWUDFHOOXODU&DVWRUHEORFNHUV—0QLPRGLSLQH—0'$39DQG—0WKDSVLJDUJLQ
ϲϯϭ
8QGHUWKHVHFRQGLWLRQV*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQVWLOOUHVXOWHGLQDSRVLWLYHVKLIWLQ(*$%$$WKDWZDV
ϲϯϮ
LQGLVWLQJXLVKDEOH IURP WKH VKLIW LQ FRQWURO VOLFHV EDVHOLQH (*$%$$ “ P9
Ϯϰ
ϲϯϯ
6.)WUHDWPHQW (*$%$$ “ P9 FKDQJH “ P9 p Q ϲϯϰ
$129$ IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ )LJXUH & ( %ORFNLQJ &D FKDQQHOV
ϲϯϱ
DOVRIDLOHGWRSUHYHQWWKH6.)PHGLDWHGȝ0IRUPLQGHFUHDVHLQVXUIDFH.&&
ϲϯϲ
PHDVXUHG E\ ELRWLQ\ODWLRQ “ p Q WWHVW )LJXUH * DQG +
ϲϯϳ
&RQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKHVH REVHUYDWLRQV WKH SRVLWLYH VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ ZDV QRW SUHYHQWHG E\
ϲϯϴ
LQKLELWRUV RI FDOFLXPGHSHQGHQW NLQDVHV 3UHWUHDWPHQW ZLWK *| —0 D VHOHFWLYH
ϲϯϵ
LQKLELWRU RI FDOFLXPGHSHQGHQW SURWHLQ NLQDVH & 3.& GLG QRW SUHYHQW WKH *$%$%5
ϲϰϬ
GHSHQGHQWVKLIWLQ(*$%$$ EDVHOLQH(*$%$$ “P96.)WUHDWPHQW(*$%$$ ϲϰϭ
“ P9 FKDQJH “ P9 p Q $129$ IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF
ϲϰϮ
'XQQHWWFRUUHFWLRQ)LJXUH(.DQ0ZKLFKLQKLELWVSURWHLQNLQDVH$3.$DQG
ϲϰϯ
W\URVLQHNLQDVHVDOVRIDLOHGWREORFNWKH*$%$%5GHSHQGHQWVKLIWEDVHOLQH(*$%$$ “
ϲϰϰ
P96.)WUHDWPHQW(*$%$$ “P9FKDQJH “P9p Q
ϲϰϱ
$129$ IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ )LJXUH ( 6LPLODUO\ SUHWUHDWPHQW
ϲϰϲ
ZLWK WKH W\URVLQH SKRVSKDWDVH LQKLELWRU VRGLXP RUWKRYDQDGDWH 1D92 P0 GLG QRW
ϲϰϳ
SUHYHQWDSRVLWLYHVKLIWLQ(*$%$$XSRQ*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQEDVHOLQH(*$%$$ “P9
ϲϰϴ
6.)WUHDWPHQW (*$%$$ “ P9 FKDQJH “ P9 p Q ϲϰϵ
$129$ IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ )LJXUH ( 7UHDWLQJ FHOOV ZLWK WKH
ϲϱϬ
SKRVSKDWDVHDQG$LQKLELWRURNDGDLFDFLG2$ȝ0DOVRIDLOHGWREORFNWKH6.)
ϲϱϭ
PHGLDWHG VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ REVHUYHG LQ FRQWURO VOLFHV EDVHOLQH (*$%$$ “ P9
ϲϱϮ
6.)WUHDWPHQW (*$%$$ “ P9 FKDQJH “ P9 p Q ϲϱϯ
$129$ IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ )LJXUH ( 7RJHWKHU WKHVH GDWD
ϲϱϰ
GHPRQVWUDWHWKDWDFWLYDWLRQRIWKH*$%$%5OHDGVWRDGHFUHDVHLQWKHVXUIDFHH[SUHVVLRQRI
ϲϱϱ
.&& LQ D PDQQHU WKDW LV LQGHSHQGHQW RI FDOFLXPGHSHQGHQW NLQDVH DQG SKRVSKDWDVH
ϲϱϲ
DFWLYLW\EXWLVGHSHQGHQWXSRQFODWKULQPHGLDWHGHQGRF\WRVLV
ϲϱϳ
ϲϱϴ
Ϯϱ
ϲϱϵ
6\QDSWLFDOO\GULYHQ*$%$%5DFWLYLW\DIIHFWVLQWUDFHOOXODUFKORULGHUHJXODWLRQ
ϲϲϬ
7R LQYHVWLJDWH LI WKLV PHFKDQLVP FRXOG EH UHFUXLWHG XQGHU SK\VLRORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQV ZH
ϲϲϭ
H[DPLQHG ZKHWKHU WKH *$%$%5PHGLDWHG HIIHFW XSRQ .&& RFFXUV DW LQKLELWRU\ V\QDSWLF
ϲϲϮ
FRQQHFWLRQV 3UHV\QDSWLF *$%$HUJLF LQWHUQHXURQV LQ RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFHV ZHUH
ϲϲϯ
VWLPXODWHGYLDDELSRODUHOHFWURGHSODFHGDWWKHERUGHURIWKHVWUDWXPS\UDPLGDOHDQGVWUDWXP
ϲϲϰ
UDGLDWXPȝPIURPWKHUHFRUGHGS\UDPLGDOFHOO)LJXUH$7KLVHQDEOHGXVWRHYRNH
ϲϲϱ
PRQRV\QDSWLF *$%$$5 UHVSRQVHV DQG WR PHDVXUH V\QDSWLF (*$%$$ %DVHOLQH V\QDSWLF
ϲϲϲ
(*$%$$ ZDVVLPLODUWRPXVFLPROHYRNHG(*$%$$ZLWKDPHDQYDOXHRI“P9Q ϲϲϳ
)LJXUH':HQH[WH[DPLQHGZKHWKHUWKH*$%$%5PHGLDWHGHIIHFWXSRQ(*$%$$FRXOGEH
ϲϲϴ
HOLFLWHG YLD V\QDSWLF DFWLYDWLRQ RI *$%$%5V *$%$%5V DUH ORFDWHG SUHGRPLQDQWO\
ϲϲϵ
H[WUDV\QDSWLFDOO\ LQ KLSSRFDPSDO S\UDPLGDO FHOOV DQG DUH WKRXJKW WR EH DFWLYDWHG XQGHU
ϲϳϬ
FRQGLWLRQV RI VWURQJ *$%$ UHOHDVH VXFK DV RFFXU GXULQJ SHULRGV RI KLJK IUHTXHQF\
ϲϳϭ
SUHV\QDSWLF ILULQJ 6FDQ]LDQL &RQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKLV D VLQJOH SUHV\QDSWLF VWLPXOXV
ϲϳϮ
JHQHUDWHGDSXUH*$%$$5UHVSRQVHLQ&$S\UDPLGDOQHXURQVZKLFKZDVHQWLUHO\EORFNHG
ϲϳϯ
E\65—0)LJXUH%,QFRQWUDVWKLJKIUHTXHQF\WUDLQVRIVWLPXOLHJVWLPXOLDW
ϲϳϰ
+] SURGXFHG D SRVWV\QDSWLF UHVSRQVH WKDW ZDV FRPSULVHG RI D ODUJH *$%$$5
ϲϳϱ
FRQGXFWDQFH DQG D VPDOOHU *$%$%5PHGLDWHG FRQGXFWDQFH WKDW FRXOG EH EORFNHG E\
ϲϳϲ
&*3—0)LJXUH%%\YDU\LQJSUHV\QDSWLFVWLPXODWLRQFRQGLWLRQVLWZDVREVHUYHG
ϲϳϳ
WKDWWKHRSWLPDOSUHV\QDSWLFIUHTXHQF\IRUDFWLYDWLQJD*$%$%5UHVSRQVHZDVFORVHWR+]
ϲϳϴ
)LJXUH&
ϲϳϵ
+DYLQJ HVWDEOLVKHG WKH VWLPXODWLRQ SDUDPHWHUV IRU LVRODWLQJ WKH *$%$$5 UHVSRQVH
ϲϴϬ
DQGIRUHYRNLQJUREXVW*$%$%5UHVSRQVHVZHDVNHGZKHWKHUV\QDSWLFDOO\GULYHQ*$%$%5
ϲϴϭ
DFWLYDWLRQ FRXOG LQGXFH DQ DFWLYLW\GHSHQGHQW VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ 8VLQJ JUDPLFLGLQ SHUIRUDWHG
ϲϴϮ
SDWFKUHFRUGLQJVEDVHOLQH(*$%$$ ZDVILUVWGHWHUPLQHGE\XVLQJVLQJOHSUHV\QDSWLFVWLPXOLWR
ϲϴϯ
HOLFLWDSRVWV\QDSWLF*$%$$5UHVSRQVHDWGLIIHUHQWKROGLQJSRWHQWLDOV)LJXUH($V\QDSWLF
ϲϴϰ
VWLPXODWLRQSURWRFROZDVWKHQDGPLQLVWHUHGZKLFKKDGEHHQVKRZQWRHOLFLWVWURQJ*$%$%5
Ϯϲ
ϲϴϱ
DFWLYDWLRQDQGFRQVLVWHGRIEXUVWVRIVWLPXOLDWDIUHTXHQF\RI+]UHSHDWHGHYHU\VIRU
ϲϴϲ
DSHULRGRIVµ*$%$%5V\QDSWLFFRQGLWLRQLQJSURWRFRO¶VHH0DWHULDOVDQG0HWKRGV7R
ϲϴϳ
DYRLG ORDGLQJ WKH FHOOV ZLWK FKORULGH GXULQJ WKHVH VWLPXODWLRQ WUDLQV WKH KROGLQJ SRWHQWLDO RI
ϲϴϴ
WKHUHFRUGHGFHOOZDVFODPSHGDW(*$%$$VRWKDWWKHUHZDVPLQLPXPIOX[RIFKORULGHWKURXJK
ϲϴϵ
WKH*$%$$5)LJXUH%$IWHUWKH*$%$%5FRQGLWLRQLQJSURWRFROV\QDSWLF(*$%$$ZDVWKHQ
ϲϵϬ
UHPHDVXUHGDVEHIRUHXVLQJVLQJOHSUHV\QDSWLFVWLPXOL7KHVHH[SHULPHQWVUHYHDOHGWKDWWKH
ϲϵϭ
*$%$%5V\QDSWLFFRQGLWLRQLQJSURWRFROFDXVHGDUREXVWGHSRODUL]LQJVKLIWLQ(*$%$$)LJXUH
ϲϵϮ
(DQG)$FURVVDSRSXODWLRQRIFHOOVWKHPHDQ(*$%$$VKLIWHGIURPDEDVHOLQHYDOXHRI
ϲϵϯ
“ P9 WR “ P9 ZKHQ UHFRUGHG PLQXWHV DIWHU V\QDSWLF *$%$%5
ϲϵϰ
VWLPXODWLRQZKLFKUHSUHVHQWHGDFKDQJHLQ(*$%$$RI“P9p Q SDLUHG
ϲϵϱ
WWHVW )LJXUH * $ WHPSRUDO DQDO\VLV RI WKH GDWD VKRZHG WKDW WKH VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ ZDV
ϲϵϲ
HYLGHQWPLQXWHVIROORZLQJV\QDSWLFVWLPXODWLRQRIWKH*$%$%5(*$%$$ “P9
ϲϵϳ
FKDQJH “P9 p Q SDLUHGWWHVWDQGZDVVWLOOGHWHFWHGDWPLQXWHV
ϲϵϴ
SRVWVWLPXODWLRQ WKH ORQJHVW SRSXODWLRQ GDWD SRLQW WKDW ZH ZHUH DEOH WR UHFRUG (*$%$$ ϲϵϵ
“P9FKDQJH “P9, p Q SDLUHGWWHVW)LJXUH*
ϳϬϬ
7R HVWDEOLVK WKDW WKLV HIIHFW ZDV GHSHQGHQW XSRQ *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ ZH ILUVW
ϳϬϭ
FRQILUPHGWKDWDFRQWUROVWLPXODWLRQSURWRFROWKDWJHQHUDWHGPLQLPDO*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQ
ϳϬϮ
VWLPXOLGHOLYHUHGDW+]GLGQRWHOLFLWDFKDQJHLQ(*$%$$7KHEDVHOLQH(*$%$$ZDV“
ϳϬϯ
P9 DQG DIWHU GHOLYHULQJ WKH FRQWURO VWLPXODWLRQ SURWRFRO (*$%$$ ZDV “ P9
ϳϬϰ
ZKLFKZDVDVLJQLILFDQWO\VPDOOHUFKDQJHLQ(*$%$$“P9WKDQREVHUYHGDIWHUWKH
ϳϬϱ
*$%$%5 FRQGLWLRQLQJ SURWRFRO p = Q $129$ IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW
ϳϬϲ
FRUUHFWLRQ )LJXUH * 7KHQ ZH FRQILUPHG WKDW EORFNLQJ *$%$%5V ZLWK D FRPSHWLWLYH
ϳϬϳ
DQWDJRQLVW—0&*3ZDV DEOHWRVLJQLILFDQWO\DWWHQXDWH WKHVKLIWLQ(*$%$$FDXVHG
ϳϬϴ
E\ WKH *$%$%5 V\QDSWLF FRQGLWLRQLQJ SURWRFRO ,QGHHG LQ WKHVH H[SHULPHQWV WKH EDVHOLQH
ϳϬϵ
(*$%$$ZDV“P9DQGDIWHUGHOLYHULQJWKH*$%$%5V\QDSWLFFRQGLWLRQLQJSURWRFRO
ϳϭϬ
WKH(*$%$$ZDV“P97KLVZDVDFKDQJHRI“P9ZKLFKGLGQRWUHSUHVHQW
ϳϭϭ
D VLJQLILFDQW GHSRODUL]LQJ VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ “ P9 Q WWHVW S DQG ZDV
Ϯϳ
ϳϭϮ
VLJQLILFDQWO\VPDOOHUWKDQWKH(*$%$$FKDQJHREVHUYHGZLWKRXWWKH*$%$%5DQWDJRQLVWp =
ϳϭϯ
Q $129$IROORZHGE\SRVWKRF'XQQHWWFRUUHFWLRQ)LJXUH*
ϳϭϰ
)LQDOO\EORFNLQJ.&& ZLWKWKHVHOHFWLYHDQWDJRQLVW98 ȝ0'HOSLUH HW
ϳϭϱ
DO ,YDNLQH HW DO DOVR UHGXFHG DQ\ FKDQJH LQ (*$%$$ IROORZLQJ *$%$%5
ϳϭϲ
VWLPXODWLRQZLWKWKH*$%$%5FRQGLWLRQLQJSURWRFROEDVHOLQH(*$%$$ “P9SRVW
ϳϭϳ
VWLPXODWLRQ (*$%$$ “ P9 FKDQJH “ P9 p
ϳϭϴ
IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ )LJXUH * 7KHVH H[SHULPHQWV GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW
ϳϭϵ
WKH *$%$%5PHGLDWHG HIIHFW XSRQ (*$%$$ YLD .&& LV QRW RQO\ HOLFLWHG E\ H[RJHQRXV
ϳϮϬ
DJRQLVW DFWLYDWLRQ RI WKH *$%$%5 EXW FDQ DOVR EH HOLFLWHG E\ V\QDSWLFDOO\HYRNHG *$%$
ϳϮϭ
UHOHDVH
ϳϮϮ
Ϯϴ
Q $129$
ϳϮϯ
'LVFXVVLRQ
ϳϮϰ
%\IRUPLQJVLJQDOOLQJFRPSOH[HVWKURXJKVSHFLILFLQWHUDFWLRQVZLWKRWKHUSURWHLQV*SURWHLQ
ϳϮϱ
FRXSOHGUHFHSWRUVFRQYHUWH[WUDFHOOXODUVLJQDOVLQWRGLYHUVHQHXURQDOUHVSRQVHV,QWKHFDVH
ϳϮϲ
RI*$%$%5VWKLVLQFOXGHV*SURWHLQVWKDWDUHUHTXLUHGIRUWKHLUµFODVVLF¶VLJQDOOLQJEXWDOVR
ϳϮϳ
LQWHUDFWLRQVZLWKDX[LOLDU\SURWHLQVWKDWPRGXODWHWKHNLQHWLFVRIUHFHSWRUVLJQDOOLQJ6FKZHQN
ϳϮϴ
HWDOGHVHQVLWLVDWLRQ3RQWLHUHWDOVXEXQLWGLPHUL]DWLRQ&RXYHHWDO
ϳϮϵ
DQGUHJXODWHWKHORFDOLVDWLRQRIWKHUHFHSWRURURWKHUSURWHLQVZLWKLQFHOOV:KLWHHWDO
ϳϯϬ
%R\HUHWDO+HUHZHKDYHLGHQWLILHGDQRYHODVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQWKH*$%$%5DQG
ϳϯϭ
WKHSRWDVVLXPFKORULGHFRWUDQVSRUWHU.&&7KLVDVVRFLDWLRQZDVGLVFRYHUHGLQDQXQELDVHG
ϳϯϮ
VFUHHQ IRU SURWHLQV SUHVHQW ZLWKLQ *$%$%5 FRPSOH[HV DW WKH QHXURQDO PHPEUDQH ZDV
ϳϯϯ
FRQILUPHG E\ ELRFKHPLFDO H[SHULPHQWV LQ KLSSRFDPSDO EUDLQ VOLFHV DQG KHWHURORJRXV FHOOV
ϳϯϰ
DQGZDVVKRZQWREHPHGLDWHGYLDWKHWUDQVPHPEUDQHUHJLRQRI.&&$JRQLVWDFWLYDWLRQRI
ϳϯϱ
WKH *$%$%5 HOLFLWV VLJQDOOLQJ HYHQWV DW WKH QHXURQDO PHPEUDQH YLD *SURWHLQ FRXSOHG
ϳϯϲ
FRPSOH[HV:HREVHUYHGWKDW*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQOHGWRDUDSLGDQGVXVWDLQHGFKDQJHLQWKH
ϳϯϳ
LRQLFGULYLQJIRUFHIRUWKHFKORULGHSHUPHDEOH*$%$$5FRQVLVWHQWZLWKDGHFUHDVHLQ.&&
ϳϯϴ
IXQFWLRQ(OHFWURSK\VLRORJLFDOUHFRUGLQJVDQGELRWLQ\ODWLRQDVVD\VFRQILUPHGWKDWWKHHIIHFWV
ϳϯϵ
ZHUH PHGLDWHG YLD .&& DQG ZHUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D FKDQJH LQ WKH WUDIILFNLQJ RI .&&
ϳϰϬ
SURWHLQDWWKHFHOOVXUIDFH$VLPLODUGRZQUHJXODWLRQLQ.&&IXQFWLRQFRXOGDOVREHHOLFLWHG
ϳϰϭ
E\DV\QDSWLFFRQGLWLRQLQJSURWRFROGHVLJQHGWRVWURQJO\DFWLYDWH*$%$%5V$QGZKLOVWRWKHU
ϳϰϮ
VLJQDOOLQJ PHFKDQLVPV PD\ KDYH EHHQ DFWLYDWHG XQGHU RXU H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV WKH
ϳϰϯ
SULQFLSOHFKDQJHLQ(*$%$$ZDVXQOLNHO\WREHPHGLDWHGE\DOWHUQDWLYH*$%$UHFHSWRUVVXFK
ϳϰϰ
DVWKH*$%$&5RUE\RWKHUVLJQDOOLQJV\VWHPV0DKDGHYDQDQG:RRGLQEHFDXVHWKH
ϳϰϱ
HIIHFW RI WKH *$%$%5 DJRQLVW DQG V\QDSWLFDOO\UHOHDVHG *$%$ ZHUH ERWK EORFNHG E\ D
ϳϰϲ
VHOHFWLYH *$%$%5 DQWDJRQLVW 7KHVH UHVXOWV DUH FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK HYLGHQFH WKDW *$%$%5
ϳϰϳ
DFWLYDWLRQ PRGXODWHV SURWHLQV ZLWK ZKRP WKH UHFHSWRU LV SK\VLFDOO\ DVVRFLDWHG 3DUN HW DO
ϳϰϴ
&LUXHODHWDOE
Ϯϵ
ϳϰϵ
,QRXUUHFRUGLQJVIURP&$S\UDPLGDOQHXURQVDFWLYDWLRQRIWKH*$%$%5E\DJRQLVW
ϳϱϬ
RUE\V\QDSWLFDOO\UHOHDVHG*$%$UHVXOWHGLQDSSUR[LPDWHO\DP9SRVLWLYHVKLIWLQ(*$%$$
ϳϱϭ
ZKLFK LV VLPLODU LQ DPSOLWXGH WR WKH VKLIWV LQ (*$%$$ IROORZLQJ RWKHU DFWLYLW\GHSHQGHQW
ϳϱϮ
FKDQJHV WR FKORULGH WUDQVSRUWHU SURWHLQV :RRGLQ HW DO :DQJ HW DO 2UPRQG
ϳϱϯ
DQG :RRGLQ ;X HW DO 6KLIWV LQ (*$%$$ ZHUH HYLGHQW ZLWKLQ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ ϳϱϰ
PLQXWHV IROORZLQJ *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ ZKLFK LV DOVR FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK SUHYLRXV HYLGHQFH WKDW
ϳϱϱ
(*$%$$ FDQ EH UDSLGO\ PRGXODWHG ZLWKLQ PLQXWHV :RRGLQ HW DO )LXPHOOL HW DO ϳϱϲ
:DQJHWDO;XHWDO %DOHQDDQG :RRGLQ2XU ORQJHVWUHFRUGLQJVZHUH
ϳϱϳ
XQDEOHWRFDSWXUHWKHUHYHUVDORIWKHHIIHFWVRQ(*$%$$DQGVKRZHGWKDWWKH\ZHUHHYLGHQWIRU
ϳϱϴ
DW OHDVW PLQXWHV ZKLFK LV DJDLQ VLPLODU WR SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV WKDW KDYH H[DPLQHG WKH
ϳϱϵ
DFWLYLW\GHSHQGHQW UHJXODWLRQ RI .&& IXQFWLRQ :RRGLQ HW DO )LXPHOOL HW DO ϳϲϬ
3XVNDUMRY HW DO .LWDPXUD HW DO /HH HW DO =KRX HW DO $VVXPLQJ
ϳϲϭ
(*$%$$ UHIOHFWV (&O DQG WKDW H[WUDFHOOXODU FKORULGH UHPDLQV FRQVWDQW D P9 VKLIW ZRXOG
ϳϲϮ
HTXDWHWRDQLQFUHDVHLQLQWUDFHOOXODUFKORULGHRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\P0IURPWRP0
ϳϲϯ
DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH 1HUQVW HTXDWLRQ &KDQJHV LQ (*$%$$ RYHU D QDUURZ UDQJH P9 FDQ
ϳϲϰ
KDYHGUDPDWLFHIIHFWVXSRQZKHWKHU*$%$HUJLFLQSXWVKDYHDQLQKLELWRU\RUIDFLOLWDWLQJHIIHFW
ϳϲϱ
0RULWD HW DO -HGOLFND HW DO DQG (*$%$$ FKDQJHV RI WKH VDPH PDJQLWXGH FDQ
ϳϲϲ
FDXVH VLJQLILFDQW FKDQJHV LQ WKH GHJUHH RI 10'$ UHFHSWRU DFWLYDWLRQ DQG DFWLRQ SRWHQWLDO
ϳϲϳ
ILULQJ IUHTXHQF\ $NHUPDQ DQG &OLQH 6DUDJD HW DO ZKLFK FDQ EH IXUWKHU
ϳϲϴ
LQIOXHQFHGE\WKHIUHTXHQF\DQG ORFDWLRQRI*$%$HUJLF LQSXWV3UHVFRWWHWDO-HDQ
ϳϲϵ
;DYLHUHWDO
ϳϳϬ
7KH *$%$%5PHGLDWHG HIIHFW XSRQ .&& DSSHDUV WR EH GLVWLQFW IURP SUHYLRXVO\
ϳϳϭ
GHVFULEHGDFWLYLW\GHSHQGHQWPHFKDQLVPVWKDWUHJXODWH.&&3RVWWUDQVODWLRQDOUHJXODWLRQ
ϳϳϮ
RI WKH WUDQVSRUWHU KDV EHHQ OLQNHG WR FDOFLXP VLJQDOOLQJ HYHQWV DQG DVVRFLDWHG HQ]\PDWLF
ϳϳϯ
PRGLILFDWLRQV .&& IXQFWLRQ LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK LWV SKRVSKRU\ODWLRQ VWDWH :RRGLQ HW DO
ϳϳϰ
)LXPHOOLHWDO/HHHWDO:DNHHWDODQGWKHWUDQVSRUWHUKDVEHHQ
ϳϳϱ
UHSRUWHGWRWXUQRYHUUDSLGO\DQGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWKHSKRVSKRU\ODWLRQRIVSHFLILFVLWHVZLWKLQ
ϳϳϲ
WKH&WHUPLQDO5LYHUDHWDO/HHHWDO5HFHQWZRUNKDVUHYHDOHGWKDWWKHWRWDO
ϯϬ
ϳϳϳ
SRRO RI .&& LV PXFK PRUH VWDEOH EXW WKDW GHJUDGDWLRQ FDQ EH WULJJHUHG E\ LQWUDFHOOXODU
ϳϳϴ
FDOFLXP ZKLFK DFWLYDWHV FDOFLXPGHSHQGHQW SURWHDVHV WKDW FOHDYH WKH &WHUPLQDO RI .&&
ϳϳϵ
3XVNDUMRY HW DO ,Q FRQWUDVW WR WKHVH PHFKDQLVPV WKH *$%$%5PHGLDWHG HIIHFW
ϳϴϬ
XSRQ.&&ZDVQRWSUHYHQWHGE\EORFNLQJFDOFLXPVLJQDOOLQJSURFHVVHVLWZDVQRWDIIHFWHG
ϳϴϭ
E\EORFNHUVRINLQDVHVDQGSKRVSKDWDVHVLPSOLFDWHGLQWKHUHJXODWLRQRI.&&DQGWKHWRWDO
ϳϴϮ
OHYHOVRI.&&ZHUHQRWDOWHUHGVXJJHVWLQJWKDWGHJUDGDWLRQSDWKZD\VDUHQRWLQYROYHG
ϳϴϯ
7KHVWDEOHSK\VLFDODVVRFLDWLRQZHREVHUYHGEHWZHHQWKH*$%$%5DQG.&&SOXV
ϳϴϰ
HYLGHQFHWKDW*$%$%5VFDQH[KLELWG\QDPLFEHKDYLRXUDWWKHPHPEUDQHRIIHUVDSRWHQWLDO
ϳϴϱ
PHFKDQLVP E\ ZKLFK *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ FRXOG LQIOXHQFH WKH VXUIDFH VWDELOLW\ DQGRU
ϳϴϲ
WUDIILFNLQJ RI WKH WUDQVSRUWHU SURWHLQ 3UHYLRXV ZRUN KDV SURYLGHG GLIIHULQJ UHVXOWV RQ WKH
ϳϴϳ
PHPEUDQHG\QDPLFVRI*$%$%5V6RPHVWXGLHVKDYHUHSRUWHGWKDWWKHUHFHSWRULVVWDEOHDW
ϳϴϴ
WKHFHOOVXUIDFHUHJDUGOHVVRIZKHWKHULWLVDFWLYDWHGRUQRW)DLUID[HWDO*UDPSSHWDO
ϳϴϵ
2WKHU VWXGLHV KDYH SURYLGHG HYLGHQFH WKDW *$%$%5V DUH PRELOH EHLQJ UDSLGO\ DQG
ϳϵϬ
FRQVWLWXWLYHO\LQWHUQDOLVHGRQDWLPHVFDOHRIPLQXWHVYLDFODWKULQGHSHQGHQWSDWKZD\VDQGLQ
ϳϵϭ
DPDQQHUWKDWFDQEHPRGXODWHGE\DFWLYDWLRQRIWKHUHFHSWRU/DIIUD\HWDO:LONLQVHW
ϳϵϮ
DO *UDPSS HW DO 2XU H[SHULPHQWV LQ UDW RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFHV
ϳϵϯ
UHYHDOHGWKDW*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQFDQUHVXOWLQDGHFUHDVHLQWKHVXUIDFHH[SUHVVLRQRIERWK
ϳϵϰ
*$%$%5 DQG .&& SURWHLQ 6XFK D UHGXFWLRQ LQ VXUIDFH *$%$%5 IROORZLQJ UHFHSWRU
ϳϵϱ
DFWLYDWLRQLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKSUHYLRXVREVHUYDWLRQVLQVOLFHFXOWXUHV/DIIUD\HWDOEXW
ϳϵϲ
FRQWUDVWV ZLWK VWXGLHV LQ GLVVRFLDWHG QHXURQDO FXOWXUHV )DLUID[ HW DO 9DUJDV HW DO
ϳϵϳ
VXJJHVWLQJWKDWWKHH[SHULPHQWDOV\VWHP9DUJDVHWDORUIDFWRUVVXFKDVWKH
ϳϵϴ
GLPHUL]DWLRQ VWDWH RI WKH *$%$%5 /DIIUD\ HW DO +DQQDQ HW DO PD\ EH
ϳϵϵ
LPSRUWDQW7KHHIIHFWVZHREVHUYHGDSSHDUHGWRDIIHFWRQO\DVXEVHWRIWKHSURWHLQV
ϴϬϬ
GHFUHDVH LQ ERWK VXUIDFH SURWHLQV DQG ZHUH HYLGHQW RYHU D VLPLODU EXW QRW LGHQWLFDO
ϴϬϭ
WLPHVFDOHWRWKHGRZQUHJXODWLRQLQ.&&IXQFWLRQWKDWZHPHDVXUHGHOHFWURSK\VLRORJLFDOO\
ϴϬϮ
7KHVH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WLPHVFDOHV RI HIIHFW PD\ UHIOHFW WKH VHQVLWLYLWLHV RI WKH PHWKRGV EXW
ϴϬϯ
FRXOG DOVR LQGLFDWH IXQFWLRQDO FKDQJHV WR .&& WKDW UHVXOW IURP EHLQJ UHF\FOHG WR WKH
ϯϭ
ϴϬϰ
PHPEUDQHSHUKDSVGXHWRFKDQJHVLQPHPEUDQHGRPDLQFHOOXODUORFDWLRQDQGRUPROHFXODU
ϴϬϱ
LQWHUDFWLRQV+DUWPDQQHWDO:DWDQDEHHWDO
ϴϬϲ
,QWHUQDOL]HG*$%$%5VDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHFODWKULQELQGLQJDGDSWRUSURWHLQ$3
ϴϬϳ
FRPSOH[ *UDPSS HW DO DQG GLVUXSWLQJ FODWKULQPHGLDWHG HQGRF\WRVLV SUHYHQWV
ϴϬϴ
LQWHUQDOL]DWLRQDQGUHF\FOLQJRI*$%$%5V*UDPSSHWDO9DUJDVHWDO/DIIUD\
ϴϬϵ
HWDO6LPLODUO\.&&KDVEHHQVKRZQWRELQGWR$3LQWKHEUDLQDQGWRXQGHUJR
ϴϭϬ
IDVW FODWKULQPHGLDWHG HQGRF\WRVLV =KDR HW DO ,PSRUWDQWO\ ZH IRXQG WKDW EORFNLQJ
ϴϭϭ
FODWKULQPHGLDWHGHQGRF\WRVLVSUHYHQWHG*$%$%5VIURPGRZQUHJXODWLQJ.&&IXQFWLRQDQG
ϴϭϮ
H[SUHVVLRQDWWKHQHXURQDOPHPEUDQH7DNHQWRJHWKHUWKLVGDWDVXSSRUWVDPRGHOLQZKLFK
ϴϭϯ
DFWLYH*$%$%5VFDQPRGXODWHWKHVXUIDFHVWDELOLW\RI.&&YLDDPHFKDQLVPWKDWLQYROYHV
ϴϭϰ
FODWKULQPHGLDWHG HQGRF\WRVLV DQG ZKLFK LPSDFWV WKH WUDQVSRUWHU¶V FRQWULEXWLRQ WR
ϴϭϱ
WUDQVPHPEUDQHFKORULGHOHYHOV,WLVZRUWKQRWLQJWKDWRXUGDWDGRQRWGHPRQVWUDWHDGLUHFW
ϴϭϲ
LQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQ.&&DQG*$%$%5DQGWKHUHIRUHWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUDGGLWLRQDOSURWHLQVWR
ϴϭϳ
PHGLDWHWKHIXQFWLRQDODVVRFLDWLRQLQQHXURQVVKRXOGDOVREHFRQVLGHUHG
ϴϭϴ
7KHIDFWWKDWZHREVHUYHGDUHGXFWLRQLQVXUIDFH.&&DQGDVPDOOHU*$%$%5
ϴϭϵ
PHGLDWHG VKLIW LQ (*$%$$WKDQZDV SURGXFHG E\ IXURVHPLGH LVFRQVLVWHQWZLWK WKH LGHD WKDW
ϴϮϬ
GLIIHUHQWSRROVRI.&&H[LVWZKLFKGLIIHULQWHUPVRIWKHLUORFDOLVDWLRQSURWHLQDVVRFLDWLRQV
ϴϮϭ
DQGRUVWDELOLW\LQWKHPHPEUDQH)RULQVWDQFHUHFHQWZRUNKDVUHYHDOHGWKDWDSRRORI.&&
ϴϮϮ
LVQRWORFDOLVHGDW*$%$HUJLFV\QDSVHVEXWUDWKHUDWJOXWDPDWHUJLFSRVWV\QDSWLFVWUXFWXUHV
ϴϮϯ
ZKHUHLWIXQFWLRQDOO\DVVRFLDWHVZLWKNDLQDWHUHFHSWRUVDQGKDVEHHQLPSOLFDWHGLQUHJXODWLQJ
ϴϮϰ
JOXWDPDWHUJLFWUDQVPLVVLRQ0DKDGHYDQHWDO*DXYDLQHWDO&KHY\HWDO
ϴϮϱ
2XU H[SHULPHQWV GLG QRW GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ SURWHLQ FRPSOH[HV ORFDWHG LQ GLIIHUHQW
ϴϮϲ
VXEFHOOXODU FRPSDUWPHQWV VXFK DV WKH VRPD RU GHQGULWHV )XWXUH H[SHULPHQWV FRXOG
ϴϮϳ
WKHUHIRUH H[SORUH ZKHWKHU WKH .&&*$%$%5 DVVRFLDWLRQ YDULHV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI FHOOXODU
ϴϮϴ
ORFDWLRQRUWKHPHPEUDQHOLSLGHQYLURQPHQW+DUWPDQQHWDO:DWDQDEHHWDO
ϴϮϵ
,W ZLOO DOVR EH LQWHUHVWLQJ WR H[DPLQH WKH ORQJHUWHUP FRQVHTXHQFHV RI PDQLSXODWLQJ WKH
ϯϮ
ϴϯϬ
.&&*$%$%5 DVVRFLDWLRQ ZKHUH WKH XVH RI WUDQVJHQLF PRXVH OLQHV LV OLNHO\ WR EH
ϴϯϭ
LQIRUPDWLYH6FKXOHUHWDO9LJRWHWDO
ϴϯϮ
,Q VXPPDU\ *$%$%5V DUH DEOH WR DVVRFLDWH LQ D SURWHLQ FRPSOH[ ZLWK WKH
ϴϯϯ
SRWDVVLXPFKORULGHFRWUDQVSRUWHU.&&$FWLYDWLRQRIWKH*$%$%5FDQUHVXOWLQDGHFUHDVH
ϴϯϰ
LQ.&&IXQFWLRQZKLFKUHTXLUHVWKHFODWKULQPHGLDWHGHQGRF\WRVLVSDWKZD\UHJXODWHVWKH
ϴϯϱ
WUDQVSRUWHU SURWHLQ DW WKH FHOO VXUIDFH DQG DOWHUV WKH GULYLQJ IRUFH IRU FKORULGHSHUPHDEOH
ϴϯϲ
*$%$$5V 7KHVH ILQGLQJV UHYHDO D QRYHO µFURVVWDON¶ EHWZHHQ WKH *$%$ UHFHSWRU V\VWHPV
ϴϯϳ
WKDWKDVLPSRUWDQWLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUWKHUHJXODWLRQRILQKLELWRU\V\QDSWLFWUDQVPLVVLRQ
ϴϯϴ
ϯϯ
ϴϯϵ
)LJXUH *$%$%5V DVVRFLDWH ZLWK .&& DW WKH FHOO PHPEUDQH LQ QHRFRUWH[ DQG
ϴϰϬ
KLSSRFDPSXV
ϴϰϭ
$$IILQLW\SXULILFDWLRQDQGPDVVVSHFWURPHWU\ZDVXVHGWRLGHQWLI\SURWHLQVDVVRFLDWHGZLWK
ϴϰϮ
WKH*$%$%5LQV\QDSWLFPHPEUDQHSUHSDUDWLRQVIURPDGXOWUDWQHRFRUWH[7KHWDEOHVKRZV
ϴϰϯ
WKHQXPEHURIXQLTXHSHSWLGHVIRUHDFKSURWHLQREWDLQHGDFURVVWKUHHLQGHSHQGHQWLVRODWHV
ϴϰϰ
RI WKH *$%$%5 SURWHLQ :KHUH WKH LGHQWLILHG SURWHLQV KDYH SUHYLRXVO\ EHHQ VKRZQ WR
ϴϰϱ
DVVRFLDWHZLWKWKH*$%$%5UHIHUHQFHVDUHSURYLGHG%.&&FRLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWHVZLWK
ϴϰϲ
WKH *$%$%5 5DW KLSSRFDPSDO O\VDWHV ZHUH LPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWHG ZLWK DQ DQWL*$%$%5
ϴϰϳ
DQWLERG\ DQG VXEVHTXHQW ZHVWHUQ EORW DQDO\VLV IRU .&& UHYHDOHG WZR GLVWLQFW EDQGV DW
ϴϰϴ
DSSUR[LPDWHO\DQGN'DZKLFKFRUUHVSRQGWRWKHPRQRPHULFDQGGLPHULFIRUPVRI
ϴϰϵ
.&& XSSHU EORW ULJKW ODQH 3URELQJ IRU *$%$%5 FRQILUPHG VXFFHVVIXO
ϴϱϬ
LPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWLRQ RI ERWK WKH *$%$%5D DQG *$%$%5E LVRIRUPV ORZHU EORW ,Q
ϴϱϭ
FRQWUDVW FRQWUROV XVLQJ VKHHS DQWL,J* DQWLERG\ IDLOHG WR SXOOGRZQ .&& RU *$%$%5
ϴϱϮ
PLGGOH ODQHV & 7KH *$%$%5 FRLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWHV ZLWK .&& ,PPXQRSUHFLSLWDWHV
ϴϱϯ
IURP UDW KLSSRFDPSDO O\VDWHV LVRODWHG ZLWK DQ DQWL.&& DQWLERG\ ZHUH SRVLWLYH IRU
ϴϱϰ
*$%$%5D*$%$%5EDQG.&&ULJKWODQHVXSSHUDQGORZHUEORWV,QFRQWUDVWFRQWURO
ϴϱϱ
H[SHULPHQWV XVLQJ D UDEELW DQWL,J* IDLOHG WR SXOOGRZQ .&& RU *$%$%5 IURP WKH VDPH
ϴϱϲ
O\VDWH PLGGOH ODQHV ' 7KH *$%$%5 OHIW DQG .&& ULJKW DUH ERWK ORFDOLVHG DW WKH
ϴϱϳ
SODVPDPHPEUDQHRIS\UDPLGDOQHXURQVDVUHYHDOHGE\UDEELWSRO\FORQDODQWLERGLHVDJDLQVW
ϴϱϴ
*$%$%5OHIWDQG.&&ULJKWLQVHSDUDWHUDWRUJDQRW\SLFKLSSRFDPSDOVOLFHV3SOXV
ϴϱϵ
',96FDOHEDUV—P(8VLQJDVHTXHQWLDOGRXEOHODEHOOLQJWHFKQLTXHLQGLVVRFLDWHG
ϴϲϬ
QHXURQDO FXOWXUHV VHH 0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV *$%$%5 UHG DQG .&& JUHHQ ZHUH
ϴϲϭ
IRXQG WR EH FRORFDOLVHG \HOORZ DW VRPDWLF DQG GHQGULWLF PHPEUDQHV RI KLSSRFDPSDO
ϴϲϮ
S\UDPLGDO QHXURQV 0DJQLILFDWLRQV RI WKH DUHDV KLJKOLJKWHG ZLWKLQ WKH ZKLWH ER[HV DUH
ϴϲϯ
SURYLGHGLQWKHSDQHOVEHORZ&RQWUROVWDLQLQJERWWRPIRU*$%$%5DQGȕWXEXOLQUHYHDOHG
ϴϲϰ
QRQRYHUODSSLQJVLJQDOV6FDOHEDUV—PDQG—P
ϴϲϱ
ϴϲϲ
)LJXUH7KH*$%$%5DVVRFLDWHVZLWKWKHWUDQVPHPEUDQHGRPDLQRI.&&
ϴϲϳ
$ 7KH *$%$%5 PRQRFORQDO DQWLERG\ ' XVHG IRU LPPXQREORWWLQJ LV VSHFLILF IRU
ϴϲϴ
*$%$%5,QZHVWHUQEORWVRIWRWDOUDWEUDLQDQGUDWKLSSRFDPSXVKRPRJHQDWHWZREDQGV
ϴϲϵ
FRUUHVSRQGLQJWR*$%$%5DDQG*$%$%5EZHUHGHWHFWHG%ORWVRIO\VDWHVIURP&+2FHOOV
ϴϳϬ
VWDEO\ H[SUHVVLQJ HLWKHU *$%$%5D5 RU *$%$%5E5 UHYHDOHG PXOWLSOH EDQGV
ϴϳϭ
FRQVLVWHQWZLWKGLIIHUHQWLDOJO\FRV\ODWLRQRI*$%$%5SURWHLQVLQWKLVV\VWHP%7KH.&&
ϴϳϮ
*$%$%5 DVVRFLDWLRQ FDQ EH UHFRQVWLWXWHG LQ D KHWHURORJRXV FHOO V\VWHP &+2 FHOOV VWDEO\
ϴϳϯ
H[SUHVVLQJ*$%$%5E5ZHUHWUDQVLHQWO\WUDQVIHFWHGZLWKIXOOOHQJWK.&&*)3DQGXVHG
ϴϳϰ
IRU FRLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWLRQ H[SHULPHQWV :HVWHUQ EORWV RI UHVXOWLQJ FRPSOH[HV VKRZHG WKDW
ϯϰ
ϴϳϱ
.&& FDQ EH FRLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWHG ZLWK *$%$%5E OHIW DQG WKH UHFLSURFDO FR
ϴϳϲ
LPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWLRQ FRQILUPV WKH DVVRFLDWLRQ ULJKW ,J* FRQWUROV ZHUH LQFOXGHG LQ HDFK
ϴϳϳ
H[SHULPHQW 6K VKHHS 5DE UDEELW & 6FKHPDWLF GLDJUDP RI .&& VKRZLQJ WKH
ϴϳϴ
LQWUDFHOOXODU 1WHUPLQDO GRPDLQ 17' &WHUPLQDO GRPDLQ &7' DQG WKH WUDQVPHPEUDQH
ϴϳϵ
GRPDLQ70'ZLWKLWVSUHGLFWHGWUDQVPHPEUDQHKHOLFHV'*)3IXVLRQSURWHLQVRIIXOO
ϴϴϬ
OHQJWK .&& )/.&& DQG GLIIHUHQW .&& GHOHWLRQ FRQVWUXFWV FRQWDLQLQJ WKH 70' DUH
ϴϴϭ
H[SUHVVHG DQG WUDQVSRUWHG WR WKH SODVPD PHPEUDQH %LRWLQ\ODWLRQ H[SHULPHQW FRPSDULQJ
ϴϴϮ
WRWDO 7 DQG FHOO VXUIDFH 6 SURWHLQ OHYHOV LQ &+2 *$%$%5E5 FHOOV WUDQVLHQWO\
ϴϴϯ
WUDQVIHFWHG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW *)3 IXVLRQ FRQVWUXFWVOHIW)/.&&SUHGLFWHGPROHFXODUPDVV
ϴϴϰ
N'D DOWKRXJK WKH 70 UHJLRQ LV JO\FRV\ODWHG 70'&7' SUHGLFWHG N'D
ϴϴϱ
17'70' SUHGLFWHG N'D DQG 70' SUHGLFWHG N'D DUH DOO GHWHFWHG RQ WKH FHOO
ϴϴϲ
VXUIDFH ZKLOH *)3 N'D DORQH LV QRW $GGLWLRQDO EDQGV GHWHFWHG OLNHO\ UHSUHVHQW
ϴϴϳ
DOWHUQDWLYHO\ JO\FRV\ODWHG GHJUDGHG RU DJJUHJDWHG SURWHLQV 7KH EORW ZDV UHSUREHG ZLWK
ϴϴϴ
*$%$%5 DQWLERG\ WR FRQILUP VXUIDFH H[SUHVVLRQ RI WKH UHFHSWRU ERWWRP ( 7KH
ϴϴϵ
WUDQVPHPEUDQH GRPDLQ RI .&& LV UHTXLUHG IRU WKH DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK WKH *$%$%5 &R
ϴϵϬ
LPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWLRQH[SHULPHQWVRQ&+2*$%$%5E5FHOOVWUDQVLHQWO\H[SUHVVLQJ.&&
ϴϵϭ
*)3GHOHWLRQFRQVWUXFWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGXVLQJDQWL*)3DVWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJDQWLERG\:KHQ
ϴϵϮ
WKH UHVXOWLQJ FRPSOH[HV ZHUH SUREHG IRU *$%$%5 WRS DOO .&&*)3 IXVLRQ SURWHLQV
ϴϵϯ
FRQWDLQLQJ WKH 70' VXFFHVVIXOO\ FRLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWHG *$%$%5E +RZHYHU *)3 IXVLRQ
ϴϵϰ
SURWHLQVFRQWDLQLQJRQO\WKH17'SUHGLFWHGN'DRUWKH&7'SUHGLFWHGN'DGLGQRW
ϴϵϱ
FDSWXUH*$%$%5E8QGHUWKHVHFRQGLWLRQVDQGFRPSDUHGWR)/.&&WKHUHODWLYH
ϴϵϲ
DPRXQWV RI *$%$%5 GHWHFWHG DIWHU LVRODWLRQ ZLWK WKH *)3 DQWLERG\ ZDV “ IRU
ϴϵϳ
17'70'“IRU70'&7'“IRU70'“IRU17'“IRU&7'
ϴϵϴ
DQG“IRU*)3Q LQHDFKFDVH7KHVHTXDQWLILFDWLRQVZLOOEHLQIOXHQFHGE\WKH
ϴϵϵ
OHYHO RI H[SUHVVLRQ RI HDFK RI WKH GLIIHUHQW FRQVWUXFWV &HOO O\VDWHV H[SUHVVLQJ WKH *)3
ϵϬϬ
IXVLRQ SURWHLQV DUH VKRZQ ERWWRP $GGLWLRQDO EDQGV GHWHFWHG ZLWK WKH *)3 DQWLERG\ DUH
ϵϬϭ
OLNHO\WREHDOWHUQDWLYHO\JO\FRV\ODWHGGHJUDGHGRUKLJKHURUGHUDJJUHJDWHVRIWKHH[SUHVVHG
ϵϬϮ
IXVLRQ SURWHLQV ) &RQWURO H[SHULPHQWV VKRZ WKDW WKH HQGRJHQRXV N'D WUDQVIHUULQ
ϵϬϯ
UHFHSWRU7I5LVQRWFRLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWHGZLWK.&&*)3SURWHLQVLQ&+2*$%$%5FHOOV
ϵϬϰ
WRS,J*EDQGVDUHVKRZQIRUFODULW\/\VDWHVDUHDOVRVKRZQERWWRP
ϵϬϱ
ϵϬϲ
)LJXUH *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ FDXVHV D GHSRODUL]LQJ VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ DQG LQFUHDVH LQ
ϵϬϳ
LQWUDFHOOXODUFKORULGH
ϵϬϴ
$ ([DPSOH *$%$$5 ,9 SORW IURP D JUDPLFLGLQ SHUIRUDWHG SDWFK UHFRUGLQJ RI D &$
ϵϬϵ
S\UDPLGDOQHXURQLQDUDWRUJDQRW\SLFKLSSRFDPSDOVOLFH,QVHWVKRZVWKHUDZFXUUHQWWUDFHV
ϵϭϬ
UHFRUGHGDWGLIIHUHQWKROGLQJSRWHQWLDOV*$%$$5FXUUHQWVZHUHHYRNHGE\ORFDODSSOLFDWLRQ
ϯϱ
ϵϭϭ
RI PXVFLPRO —0 DUURZKHDG WR WKH FHOO VRPD (*$%$$ ZDV GHILQHG DV WKH KROGLQJ
ϵϭϮ
SRWHQWLDODWZKLFKWKH*$%$$5FXUUHQWKDGDQDPSOLWXGHRI]HUR6FDOHEDUS$V%
ϵϭϯ
([DPSOH ,9 SORW IURP WKH VDPH FHOO LQ µ$¶ UHFRUGHG DIWHU PLQ RI EDWK DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH
ϵϭϰ
*$%$%5DJRQLVW6.)—0&*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQOHGWRDVLJQLILFDQWGHSRODUL]LQJ
ϵϭϱ
VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ DFURVV D SRSXODWLRQ RI QHXURQV Q p SDLUHG WWHVW (DFK
ϵϭϲ
FRQQHFWHG SDLU RI GRWV FRUUHVSRQGV WR DQ LQGLYLGXDO QHXURQ DQG WKH JUH\ KRUL]RQWDO EDUV
ϵϭϳ
LQGLFDWH SRSXODWLRQ PHDQV ' &KDQJH LQ (*$%$$ SORWWHG DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WLPH EHIRUH DQG
ϵϭϴ
DIWHU WKH RQVHW RI 6.) DSSOLFDWLRQ JUH\ EDU Q ( 'LVUXSWLQJ *SURWHLQ
ϵϭϵ
VLJQDOOLQJZLWK37;RUEORFNLQJ*,5.FKDQQHOVZLWK6&+ERWKUHVXOWHGLQDVLJQLILFDQW
ϵϮϬ
UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH 6.)HYRNHG FXUUHQW FRPSDUHG WR FRQWURO QHXURQV Q DQG ϵϮϭ
UHVSHFWLYHO\p ”$129$IROORZHGE\SRVWKRF'XQQHWWFRUUHFWLRQ)37;Q ϵϮϮ
VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHGXFHG WKH VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ IROORZLQJ *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ FRPSDUHG WR FRQWURO
ϵϮϯ
FHOOV Q p $129$ IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ ,Q FRQWUDVW
ϵϮϰ
EORFNLQJ*,5.FKDQQHOVGLGQRWSUHYHQWWKHVKLIWLQ(*$%$$Q p $129$IROORZHG
ϵϮϱ
E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ * &KORULGH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LPDJHV RI D &$ S\UDPLGDO
ϵϮϲ
QHXURQ H[SUHVVLQJ WKH &O6HQVRU SURWHLQ DQG UHFRUGHG EHIRUH OHIW DQG DIWHU ULJKW EDWK
ϵϮϳ
DSSOLFDWLRQ RI 6.) 6FDOH EDU —P + :KLOH WKHUH ZDV QR FKDQJH LQ FKORULGH
ϵϮϴ
FRQFHQWUDWLRQLQFRQWUROQHXURQVH[SUHVVLQJWKH&O6HQVRUSURWHLQDQGH[SRVHGWRYHKLFOHIRU
ϵϮϵ
PLQOHIWµ9HK¶p SDLUHGWWHVWQ DFWLYDWLRQRI*$%$%5VZLWK6.)
ϵϯϬ
ȝ0 IRU PLQ UHVXOWHG LQ D VLJQLILFDQW LQFUHDVH LQ >&O@L ULJKW µ6.)¶ p SDLUHG W
ϵϯϭ
WHVW , $FWLYDWLRQ RI *$%$%5V FDXVHG D VLJQLILFDQW LQFUHDVH LQ >&O@L DIWHU PLQ ZKHQ
ϵϯϮ
FRPSDUHGWRFRQWUROFHOOVLPDJHGRYHUWKHVDPHWLPHSHULRGQ DQGp WWHVW
ϵϯϯ
ϵϯϰ
)LJXUH*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQGRZQUHJXODWHVWKHFKORULGHWUDQVSRUWHU.&&
ϵϯϱ
$ 7KH *$%$%5LQGXFHG VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ LV RFFOXGHG E\ EORFNLQJ WKH DFWLYLW\ RI FKORULGH
ϵϯϲ
WUDQVSRUWHU SURWHLQV (*$%$$ UHFRUGHG LQ D &$ S\UDPLGDO QHXURQ LQ D UDW RUJDQRW\SLF
ϵϯϳ
KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFH XQGHU EDVHOLQH FRQGLWLRQV ZKLWH V\PEROV IROORZLQJ DSSOLFDWLRQ RI
ϵϯϴ
IXURVHPLGH P0 EODFN V\PEROV DQG WKHQ DIWHU DGGLWLRQ RI 6.) —0 JUH\
ϵϯϵ
V\PEROV,QVHWVVKRZWKHUDZFXUUHQWWUDFHVUHFRUGHGDWGLIIHUHQWKROGLQJSRWHQWLDOV6FDOH
ϵϰϬ
EDUS$V%7KH*$%$%5LQGXFHGVKLIWLQ(*$%$$LVQRWSUHYHQWHGE\EORFNLQJWKH
ϵϰϭ
FKORULGHWUDQVSRUWHU1.&&(*$%$$UHFRUGHGLQD&$S\UDPLGDOQHXURQLQDUDWRUJDQRW\SLF
ϵϰϮ
KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFH XQGHU EDVHOLQH FRQGLWLRQV ZKLWH V\PEROV DIWHU EXPHWDQLGH WUHDWPHQW
ϵϰϯ
—0 EODFN V\PEROV DQG WKHQ DIWHU WKH VXEVHTXHQW DGGLWLRQ RI 6.) —0 JUH\
ϵϰϰ
V\PEROV 6FDOH EDU S$ V & &RPSDUHG WR FRQWURO FHOOV Q (*$%$$ ZDV
ϵϰϱ
VLJQLILFDQWO\ PRUH GHSRODUL]HG LQ QHXURQV WUHDWHG ZLWK IXURVHPLGH Q p
ϵϰϲ
$129$ ZLWKSRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ ZKHUHDV QHXURQV WUHDWHG ZLWK EXPHWDQLGH
ϯϲ
ϵϰϳ
—0KDGFRPSDUDEOHYDOXHVWRFRQWUROQ p $129$ZLWKSRVWKRF'XQQHWW
ϵϰϴ
FRUUHFWLRQ'7KH6.)LQGXFHGFKDQJHLQ(*$%$$LQDSRSXODWLRQRI&$S\UDPLGDO
ϵϰϵ
QHXURQV WUHDWHG ZLWK IXURVHPLGH EODFN EDU DQG SORWWHG DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH WLPH RI
ϵϱϬ
6.)DSSOLFDWLRQJUH\EDUQ (7KH6.)LQGXFHGFKDQJHLQ(*$%$$LQD
ϵϱϭ
SRSXODWLRQ RI &$ S\UDPLGDO QHXURQV WUHDWHG ZLWK EXPHWDQLGH EODFN EDU SORWWHG DV D
ϵϱϮ
IXQFWLRQRIWKHWLPHRI6.)DSSOLFDWLRQJUH\EDUQ )7KH6.)LQGXFHG
ϵϱϯ
FKDQJH LQ (*$%$$ REVHUYHG LQ FRQWURO FHOOV Q ZDV EORFNHG LQ IXURVHPLGHWUHDWHG
ϵϱϰ
QHXURQV Q p
ϵϱϱ
WUHDWPHQWGLGQRWDIIHFWWKHGHSRODUL]LQJVKLIWLQ(*$%$$FDXVHGE\*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQQ ϵϱϲ
p $129$ZLWKSRVWKRF'XQQHWWFRUUHFWLRQ
ϵϱϳ
ϵϱϴ
)LJXUH*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQOHDGVWRDUHGXFWLRQLQ.&&DWWKHPHPEUDQHVXUIDFH
$129$ ZLWK SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ %XPHWDQLGH
ϵϱϵ
$ *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ OHDGV WR D UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH IUDFWLRQ RI ERWK PRQRPHULF DQG GLPHULF
ϵϲϬ
IRUPVRI.&&DWWKHPHPEUDQHVXUIDFH5DWRUJDQRW\SLFKLSSRFDPSDOVOLFHV3SOXV
ϵϲϭ
',9 ZHUH H[SRVHG WR QRUPDO $&6) µ&RQWURO¶ RU $&6) FRQWDLQLQJ 6.) IRU PLQ
ϵϲϮ
µ6.)¶ȝ0DQGWKHQELRWLQ\ODWHGWRODEHOSURWHLQVDWWKHFHOOVXUIDFH&HOOKRPRJHQDWHVRI
ϵϲϯ
WRWDOSURWHLQµ7¶DQGVWUHSWDYLGLQSXULILHGFHOOVXUIDFHSURWHLQVµ6¶ZHUHSUREHGRQZHVWHUQ
ϵϲϰ
EORWV ZLWK DQWL.&& DQWLERGLHV WRS /DFN RI ȕWXEXOLQ VWDLQLQJ LQ VXUIDFH VDPSOHV
ϵϲϱ
FRQILUPHGWKDWWKHFHOO PHPEUDQHVUHPDLQHGLQWDFWERWWRP%6.)WUHDWPHQWDOVR
ϵϲϲ
OHGWRDFRQFRPLWDQWUHGXFWLRQLQVXUIDFHOHYHOVRI*$%$%5UHODWLYHWRFRQWUROV&1HLWKHU
ϵϲϳ
VXUIDFHERXQG 1.&& QRU WKH VXUIDFH OHYHOV RI WKH WUDQVIHUULQUHFHSWRU FKDQJHG IROORZLQJ
ϵϲϴ
*$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ ' 6XPPDU\ SORW RI WKH HIIHFW RI *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ XSRQ SURWHLQV DW
ϵϲϵ
WKH PHPEUDQH VXUIDFH DIWHU PLQ ȝ0 6.) WUHDWPHQW 6XUIDFH H[SUHVVLRQ ZDV
ϵϳϬ
TXDQWLILHG DV WKH UDWLR RI VXUIDFH WR WRWDO SURWHLQ QRUPDOL]HG WR FRQWURO VOLFHV WKDW ZHUH
ϵϳϭ
H[DPLQHG LQ SDUDOOHO 6.) WUHDWPHQW UHVXOWHG LQ DVLJQLILFDQW UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH VXUIDFH
ϵϳϮ
UDWLRIRU.&&PRQRPHUp GLPHUp µDOO¶p Q WWHVWDQG
ϵϳϯ
*$%$%5µDOO¶p Q WWHVW1RHIIHFWZDVREVHUYHGLQWKHVXUIDFHWRWDOUDWLRIRU
ϵϳϰ
1.&&p Q WWHVWRUWKHWUDQVIHUULQUHFHSWRU7I5p Q WWHVW(
ϵϳϱ
7KH DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ .&& DQG *$%$%5 UHPDLQV IROORZLQJ 6.) WUHDWPHQW 5DW
ϵϳϲ
RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFHV ZHUH VROXELOLVHG DQG VXEMHFWHG WR FRLPPXQRSUHFLSLWDWLRQ
ϵϳϳ
DQDO\VLV XVLQJ *$%$%5 DV WKH SUHFLSLWDWLQJ DQWLERG\ 7KH DPRXQW RI .&& LQ *$%$%5
ϵϳϴ
FRPSOH[HV WRS QRUPDOL]HG E\ WKH DPRXQW RI *$%$%5 SURWHLQ SUHFLSLWDWHG ERWWRP GLG
ϵϳϵ
QRWFKDQJHIROORZLQJ6.)WUHDWPHQWp Q WWHVW
ϵϴϬ
ϵϴϭ
)LJXUH7KH*$%$%5HIIHFWXSRQ.&&UHTXLUHVFODWKULQGHSHQGHQWHQGRF\WRVLV
ϯϳ
ϵϴϮ
$ %ORFNLQJ FODWKULQGHSHQGHQW HQGRF\WRVLV ZLWK GDQV\OFDGDYHULQH '& SUHYHQWV WKH
ϵϴϯ
GHSRODUL]LQJVKLIWLQ(*$%$$ IROORZLQJ*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQ([DPSOHI-V SORWVDUHVKRZQIRUD
ϵϴϰ
&$S\UDPLGDOFHOOLQDUDWRUJDQRW\SLFKLSSRFDPSDOVOLFHWUHDWHGZLWK'&ȝ0(*$%$$DW
ϵϴϱ
EDVHOLQH EODFN GDWD LV VLPLODU WR WKDW UHFRUGHG DIWHU 6.) WUHDWPHQW JUH\ GDWD %
ϵϴϲ
7KH6.)LQGXFHGFKDQJHLQ(*$%$$LQDSRSXODWLRQRI&$S\UDPLGDOQHXURQVWUHDWHG
ϵϴϳ
ZLWK'&EODFNEDUDQGSORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWKHWLPHRI6.)DSSOLFDWLRQJUH\EDU
ϵϴϴ
Q &%ORFNLQJ&D VLJQDOOLQJYLDDFRPELQDWLRQRIQLPRGLSLQH—0WKDSVLJDUJLQ
ϵϴϵ
—0 DQG '$39 —0 GLG QRW SUHYHQW WKH *$%$%5PHGLDWHG VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ 6DPH
ϵϵϬ
FRQYHQWLRQVDVLQµ$¶'7KH6.)LQGXFHGFKDQJHLQ(*$%$$LQDSRSXODWLRQRI&$
ϵϵϭ
S\UDPLGDOQHXURQVWUHDWHGZLWK&DFKDQQHOEORFNHUVEODFNEDUSORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWKH
ϵϵϮ
WLPHRI6.)DSSOLFDWLRQJUH\EDUQ (6XPPDU\SORWRIWKHHIIHFWRI*$%$%5
ϵϵϯ
DFWLYDWLRQ LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI GLIIHUHQW LQKLELWRUV %ORFNLQJ FODWKULQGHSHQGHQW HQGRF\WRVLV
ϵϵϰ
VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHGXFHG WKH 6.)GHSHQGHQW VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ Q REVHUYHG LQ FRQWURO
ϵϵϱ
FHOOV Q p
ϵϵϲ
WUHDWLQJ FHOOV ZLWK D FRPELQDWLRQ RI &D FKDQQHO EORFNHUV Q KDG QR HIIHFW RQ WKH
ϵϵϳ
6.)GHSHQGHQW VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ p
$129$ IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW FRUUHFWLRQ ,Q FRQWUDVW
$129$ IROORZHG E\ SRVWKRF 'XQQHWW
ϵϵϴ
FRUUHFWLRQ3UHLQFXEDWLRQZLWKWKHVHOHFWLYH3.&LQKLELWRU*ऺ—0Q p ϵϵϵ
WKH JHQHUDO NLQDVH EORFNHU .D Q0 Q p WKH W\URVLQH SKRVSKDWDVH
ϭϬϬϬ
LQKLELWRU 1D92 P0 Q p RU WKH SURWHLQ SKRVSKDWDVH DQG LQKLELWRU
ϭϬϬϭ
RNDGDLF DFLG —0 Q p GLG QRW SUHYHQW D VLJQLILFDQW VKLIW LQ (*$%$$ IROORZLQJ
ϭϬϬϮ
*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQDOO$129$IROORZHGE\SRVWKRF'XQQHWWFRUUHFWLRQ)6XUIDFH.&&
ϭϬϬϯ
OHYHOVDUHQRWDOWHUHGZKHQ*$%$%5VDUHDFWLYDWHGLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIDQLQKLELWRURIFODWKULQ
ϭϬϬϰ
GHSHQGHQW HQGRF\WRVLV 5DW RUJDQRW\SLF KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFHV ZHUH SUHWUHDWHG ZLWK '& ϭϬϬϱ
—0DQGH[SRVHGWR6.)µ'&6.)¶6OLFHVSUHWUHDWHGZLWK'&EXWQRWH[SRVHGWR
ϭϬϬϲ
6.)µ'&¶ZHUHXVHGDVFRQWUROVDQGUXQLQSDUDOOHOVHH0DWHULDOVDQG0HWKRGV*
ϭϬϬϳ
6OLFHVWUHDWHGZLWKDFRPELQDWLRQRI&DEORFNHUVVWLOOVKRZHGUHGXFHGVXUIDFH.&&OHYHOV
ϭϬϬϴ
IROORZLQJ*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQ+6XPPDU\SORWRIWKHUDWLRRIVXUIDFHWRWRWDO.&&SURWHLQ
ϭϬϬϵ
QRUPDOL]HG WR FRQWURO YDOXHV %ORFNLQJ FODWKULQGHSHQGHQW HQGRF\WRVLV SUHYHQWHG WKH
ϭϬϭϬ
UHGXFWLRQ LQ VXUIDFH .&& IROORZLQJ *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ Q p WWHVW :KHUHDV
ϭϬϭϭ
EORFNLQJ &D VLJQDOOLQJ Q GLG QRW DOWHU WKH HIIHFW RI *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ XSRQ VXUIDFH
ϭϬϭϮ
.&&p WWHVW
ϭϬϭϯ
ϭϬϭϰ
)LJXUH6\QDSWLFDOO\GULYHQ*$%$%5DFWLYDWLRQFDQVKLIW(*$%$$
ϭϬϭϱ
$ 'LDJUDP RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO VHWXS IRU V\QDSWLFDOO\ DFWLYDWLQJ SRVWV\QDSWLF *$%$$5V
ϭϬϭϲ
DQG *$%$%5V 3UHV\QDSWLF *$%$HUJLF LQWHUQHXURQV ZHUH VWLPXODWHG LQ UDW RUJDQRW\SLF
ϭϬϭϳ
KLSSRFDPSDO VOLFHV YLD D ELSRODU WXQJVWHQ HOHFWURGH SRVLWLRQHG DW WKH VWUDWXP
ϭϬϭϴ
UDGLDWXPS\UDPLGDOH ERUGHU ȝP IURP WKH UHFRUGHG FHOO % ,VRODWLQJ *$%$$5 DQG
ϯϴ
ϭϬϭϵ
*$%$%5 UHVSRQVHV 5HSUHVHQWDWLYH WUDFHV VKRZ PRQRV\QDSWLF *$%$HUJLF SRVWV\QDSWLF
ϭϬϮϬ
FXUUHQWVLQD&$S\UDPLGDOQHXURQUHFRUGHGLQUHVSRQVHWRVLQJOHSUHV\QDSWLFVWLPXOLOHIW
ϭϬϮϭ
RUWUDLQVRIVWLPXOLDSSOLHGDW+]PLGGOH*$%$$5DQG*$%$%5UHVSRQVHVFRXOGEH
ϭϬϮϮ
SKDUPDFRORJLFDOO\LVRODWHGE\DSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHVHOHFWLYH*$%$$5DQWDJRQLVW65
ϭϬϮϯ
—0 DQG WKHQ WKH *$%$%5 DQWDJRQLVW &*3 —0 1RWH WKDW *$%$%5 UHVSRQVHV
ϭϬϮϰ
ZHUHQRWHYRNHGE\VLQJOH VWLPXOLEXWZHUHHYLGHQWIRUWKHPXOWLSOHVWLPXOL FRQGLWLRQ,QWKH
ϭϬϮϱ
DEVHQFH RI WKHVH UHFHSWRU EORFNHUV ULJKW WKH IOX[ RI FKORULGH WKURXJK *$%$$5V FRXOG EH
ϭϬϮϲ
PLQLPLVHGE\FODPSLQJWKHSRVWV\QDSWLFQHXURQFORVHWRLWV(*$%$$6FDOHEDUVS$
ϭϬϮϳ
PV & 7KH DPSOLWXGH RI WKH SRVWV\QDSWLF *$%$%5 UHVSRQVH LV VHQVLWLYH WR SUHV\QDSWLF
ϭϬϮϴ
VWLPXOXV IUHTXHQF\ :KLOH *$%$$5 FRQGXFWDQFHV J*$%$$ ZHUH GHWHFWHG DFURVV WKH
ϭϬϮϵ
UDQJHRIVWLPXOXVIUHTXHQFLHV*$%$%5PHGLDWHGFRQGXFWDQFHVJ*$%$%ZHUHODUJHVWIRU
ϭϬϯϬ
KLJKIUHTXHQF\VWLPXOLRIa+]DQGZHUHPLQLPDODWORZHUIUHTXHQFLHVQ '5HVWLQJ
ϭϬϯϭ
(*$%$$ YDOXHV PHDVXUHG E\ PXVFLPRODFWLYDWLRQ RI WKH *$%$$5 Q DQG E\ V\QDSWLF
ϭϬϯϮ
DFWLYDWLRQRIWKH*$%$$5Q 6\QDSWLF(*$%$$ H[KLELWHGDJUHDWHUUDQJHRIYDOXHVDQG
ϭϬϯϯ
KDGDPHDQYDOXHRI“P9FRPSDUHGWR“P9IRUWKHPXVFLPROHYRNHG
ϭϬϯϰ
UHFRUGLQJV p
WWHVW ( ([DPSOH *$%$$5 I-V SORWV IRU D &$ S\UDPLGDO QHXURQ
ϭϬϯϱ
EHIRUH EODFN GDWD DQG DIWHU JUH\ GDWD GHOLYHULQJ D FRQGLWLRQLQJ SURWRFRO GHVLJQHG WR
ϭϬϯϲ
VWURQJO\DFWLYDWHSRVWV\QDSWLF*$%$%5VVWLPXOLGHOLYHUHGDVEXUVWVRIVWLPXOLDW
ϭϬϯϳ
+]DWVLQWHUYDOV5DZWUDFHVDUHVKRZQLQVHWVVFDOHEDUVS$V)&KDQJHLQ
ϭϬϯϴ
(*$%$$LQDSRSXODWLRQRI&$S\UDPLGDOQHXURQVQ IROORZLQJGHOLYHU\RIWKH *$%$%5
ϭϬϯϵ
FRQGLWLRQLQJ SURWRFRO YHUWLFDO DUURZ * &$ S\UDPLGDO QHXURQV WKDW XQGHUZHQW WKH
ϭϬϰϬ
*$%$%5V\QDSWLFFRQGLWLRQLQJ SURWRFROQ VKRZHGDVLJQLILFDQWO\ODUJHUSRVLWLYHVKLIWLQ
ϭϬϰϭ
(*$%$$WKDQQHXURQVWKDWH[SHULHQFHGDFRQWUROVWLPXODWLRQSURWRFROVWLPXOLGHOLYHUHGDW
ϭϬϰϮ
+] GHVLJQHG WR JHQHUDWH PLQLPDO *$%$%5 DFWLYDWLRQ Q p
ϭϬϰϯ
(*$%$$ LQGXFHG E\ WKH *$%$%5 V\QDSWLF FRQGLWLRQLQJ SURWRFRO ZDV DOVR SUHYHQWHG E\
ϭϬϰϰ
EORFNLQJ *$%$%5V ZLWK WKH VHOHFWLYH DQWDJRQLVW &*3 Q p
ϭϬϰϱ
EORFNLQJ .&& DFWLYLW\ ZLWK 98 ȝ0 Q p $129$ IROORZHG E\
ϭϬϰϲ
SRVWKRF'XQQHWWFRUUHFWLRQ
ϭϬϰϳ
ϯϵ
7KH FKDQJH LQ
RU E\
ϭϬϰϴ
ϭϬϰϵ
ϭϬϱϬ
ϭϬϱϭ
ϭϬϱϮ
ϭϬϱϯ
ϭϬϱϰ
ϭϬϱϱ
ϭϬϱϲ
ϭϬϱϳ
ϭϬϱϴ
ϭϬϱϵ
ϭϬϲϬ
ϭϬϲϭ
ϭϬϲϮ
ϭϬϲϯ
ϭϬϲϰ
ϭϬϲϱ
ϭϬϲϲ
ϭϬϲϳ
ϭϬϲϴ
ϭϬϲϵ
ϭϬϳϬ
ϭϬϳϭ
ϭϬϳϮ
ϭϬϳϯ
ϭϬϳϰ
ϭϬϳϱ
ϭϬϳϲ
ϭϬϳϳ
ϭϬϳϴ
ϭϬϳϵ
ϭϬϴϬ
ϭϬϴϭ
ϭϬϴϮ
ϭϬϴϯ
ϭϬϴϰ
ϭϬϴϱ
ϭϬϴϲ
ϭϬϴϳ
ϭϬϴϴ
ϭϬϴϵ
ϭϬϵϬ
ϭϬϵϭ
ϭϬϵϮ
ϭϬϵϯ
ϭϬϵϰ
ϭϬϵϱ
ϭϬϵϲ
ϭϬϵϳ
ϭϬϵϴ
ϭϬϵϵ
ϭϭϬϬ
5HIHUHQFHV
$NHUPDQ&-&OLQH+7'HSRODUL]LQJ*$%$HUJLFFRQGXFWDQFHVUHJXODWHWKH
EDODQFHRIH[FLWDWLRQWRLQKLELWLRQLQWKHGHYHORSLQJUHWLQRWHFWDOFLUFXLWLQYLYR-1HXURVFL26
%DODVXEUDPDQLDQ67HLVVpUH-$5DMX'9DQG+DOO5$+HWHUR
ROLJRPHUL]DWLRQEHWZHHQ*$%$$DQG*$%$%UHFHSWRUVUHJXODWHV*$%$%UHFHSWRU
WUDIILFNLQJ-%LRO&KHP279
%DOHQD7:RRGLQ0$&RLQFLGHQWSUHDQGSRVWV\QDSWLFDFWLYLW\GRZQUHJXODWHV
1.&&WRK\SHUSRODUL]H(&OGXULQJGHYHORSPHQW(XU-1HXURVFL27
%HWWOHU%.DXSPDQQ.0RVEDFKHU-DQG*DVVPDQQ00ROHFXODUVWUXFWXUHDQG
SK\VLRORJLFDOIXQFWLRQVRI*$%$%UHFHSWRUV3K\VLRO5HY 84
%ODHVVH3*XLOOHPLQ,6FKLQGOHU-6FKZHL]HU0'HOSLUH(.KLURXJ/)ULDXI(
DQG1RWKZDQJ+*2OLJRPHUL]DWLRQRI.&&FRUUHODWHVZLWKGHYHORSPHQWRI
LQKLELWRU\QHXURWUDQVPLVVLRQ-1HXURVFL 26
%R\DUVN\**DQ]0%6WHU]HO5%DQG%RURQ:)S+UHJXODWLRQLQVLQJOH
JORPHUXODUPHVDQJLDOFHOOV,$FLGH[WUXVLRQLQDEVHQFHDQGSUHVHQFHRI+&2$P-
3K\VLRO&
%R\HU6%&ODQF\607HUXQXPD05HYLOOD6DQFKH]57KRPDV600RVV6-
DQG6OHVLQJHU3$'LUHFWLQWHUDFWLRQRI*$%$%UHFHSWRUVZLWK0PXVFDULQLF
UHFHSWRUVHQKDQFHVPXVFDULQLFVLJQDOLQJ-1HXURVFL 29
&DVXOD66KPXNOHU%(:LOKHOP66WXDUW7LOOH\$.6X:&KHUQRYD01
%UXJQDUD&DQG$OSHU6/$GRPLQDQWQHJDWLYHPXWDQWRIWKH.&&.&O
FRWUDQVSRUWHUERWK1DQG&WHUPLQDOF\WRSODVPLFGRPDLQVDUHUHTXLUHGIRU.&OFRWUDQVSRUW
DFWLYLW\-%LRO&KHP 276
&KDPPD,&KHY\43RQFHU-&DQG/HYL65ROHRIWKHQHXURQDO.&OFR
WUDQVSRUWHU.&&LQLQKLELWRU\DQGH[FLWDWRU\QHXURWUDQVPLVVLRQ)URQW&HOO1HXURVFL 6
&KHY\4+HXEO0*RXWLHUUH0%DFNHU60RXWNLQH,(XJqQH(%ORFK*DOOHJR(
/pYL6DQG3RQFHU-&.&&*DWHV$FWLYLW\'ULYHQ$03$5HFHSWRU7UDIILF
WKURXJK&RILOLQ3KRVSKRU\ODWLRQ-1HXURVFL35
&LUXHOD)$OEHUJDULD&6RULDQR$&XIIt/&DUERQHOO/6iQFKH]6*DQGtD-DQG
)HUQiQGH]'XHxDV9D$GHQRVLQHUHFHSWRUVLQWHUDFWLQJSURWHLQV$5,3V%HKLQG
WKHELRORJ\RIDGHQRVLQHVLJQDOLQJ%LRFKLP%LRSK\V$FWD1798
&LUXHOD))HUQiQGH]'XHxDV96DKOKRP.)HUQiQGH]$ODFLG/1LFRODX-&
:DWDQDEH0DQG/XMiQ5E(YLGHQFHIRUROLJRPHUL]DWLRQEHWZHHQ*$%$%
UHFHSWRUVDQG*,5.FKDQQHOVFRQWDLQLQJWKH*,5.DQG*,5.VXEXQLWV(XUR-1HXURVFL
32
&RQQHOO\:0)\VRQ6-(UULQJWRQ$&0F&DIIHUW\&3&RSH':'L*LRYDQQL*
&UXQHOOL9*$%$%5HFHSWRUV5HJXODWH([WUDV\QDSWLF*$%$$5HFHSWRUV-
1HXURVFL
ϰϬ
ϭϭϬϭ
ϭϭϬϮ
ϭϭϬϯ
ϭϭϬϰ
ϭϭϬϱ
ϭϭϬϲ
ϭϭϬϳ
ϭϭϬϴ
ϭϭϬϵ
ϭϭϭϬ
ϭϭϭϭ
ϭϭϭϮ
ϭϭϭϯ
ϭϭϭϰ
ϭϭϭϱ
ϭϭϭϲ
ϭϭϭϳ
ϭϭϭϴ
ϭϭϭϵ
ϭϭϮϬ
ϭϭϮϭ
ϭϭϮϮ
ϭϭϮϯ
ϭϭϮϰ
ϭϭϮϱ
ϭϭϮϲ
ϭϭϮϳ
ϭϭϮϴ
ϭϭϮϵ
ϭϭϯϬ
ϭϭϯϭ
ϭϭϯϮ
ϭϭϯϯ
ϭϭϯϰ
ϭϭϯϱ
ϭϭϯϲ
ϭϭϯϳ
ϭϭϯϴ
ϭϭϯϵ
ϭϭϰϬ
ϭϭϰϭ
ϭϭϰϮ
ϭϭϰϯ
ϭϭϰϰ
ϭϭϰϱ
ϭϭϰϲ
ϭϭϰϳ
ϭϭϰϴ
ϭϭϰϵ
ϭϭϱϬ
ϭϭϱϭ
ϭϭϱϮ
ϭϭϱϯ
ϭϭϱϰ
ϭϭϱϱ
&RXYH$.LWWOHU-78UHQ-0&DOYHU$53DQJDORV01:DOVK)6DQG0RVV
6-$VVRFLDWLRQRI*$%$%UHFHSWRUVDQGPHPEHUVRIWKHIDPLO\RIVLJQDOLQJ
SURWHLQV0RO&HOO1HXURVFL 17
'HOSLUH('D\V(/HZLV/00L'.LP./LQGVOH\&:DQG:HDYHU&'
6PDOOPROHFXOHVFUHHQLGHQWLILHVLQKLELWRUVRIWKHQHXURQDO.&OFRWUDQVSRUWHU.&&3URF
1DWO$FDG6FL86$106
'H6LPRQL$*ULHVLQJHU&%DQG(GZDUGV)$'HYHORSPHQWRIUDW&$
QHXURQHVLQDFXWHYHUVXVRUJDQRW\SLFVOLFHVUROHRIH[SHULHQFHLQV\QDSWLFPRUSKRORJ\DQG
DFWLYLW\-3K\VLRO±
'\KUIMHOG-RKQVHQ-%HUGLFKHYVN\<6ZLHUF]:6DEROHN+DQG6WDOH\.-
,QWHULFWDOVSLNHVSUHFHGHLFWDOGLVFKDUJHVLQDQRUJDQRW\SLFKLSSRFDPSDOVOLFHFXOWXUHPRGHO
RIHSLOHSWRJHQHVLV-&OLQ1HXURSK\VLRO±
']KDOD9,7DORV'06GUXOOD'$%UXPEDFN$&0DWKHZV*&%HQNH7$
'HOSLUH(-HQVHQ)(DQG6WDOH\.-1.&&WUDQVSRUWHUIDFLOLWDWHVVHL]XUHVLQ
WKHGHYHORSLQJEUDLQ1DW0HG 11
']KDOD99DOHHYD**O\N\V-.KD]LSRY56WDOH\.7UDXPDWLFDOWHUDWLRQVLQ
*$%$VLJQDOLQJGLVUXSWKLSSRFDPSDOQHWZRUNDFWLYLW\LQWKHGHYHORSLQJEUDLQ-1HXURVFL32
(KUOLFK,/RKUNH6)ULDXI(6KLIWIURPGHSRODUL]LQJWRK\SHUSRODUL]LQJJO\FLQH
DFWLRQLQUDWDXGLWRU\QHXURQHVLVGXHWRDJHGHSHQGHQW&OUHJXODWLRQ-3K\VLRO520
(OOHQGHU7-5DLPRQGR-9,UNOH$/DPVD.3DQG$NHUPDQ&-([FLWDWRU\
HIIHFWVRISDUYDOEXPLQH[SUHVVLQJLQWHUQHXURQVPDLQWDLQKLSSRFDPSDOHSLOHSWLIRUPDFWLYLW\
YLDV\QFKURQRXVDIWHUGLVFKDUJHV-1HXURVFL34
)DLUID[%33LWFKHU-$6FRWW0*&DOYHU$53DQJDORV010RVV6-DQG
&RXYH$3KRVSKRU\ODWLRQDQGFKURQLFDJRQLVWWUHDWPHQWDW\SLFDOO\PRGXODWH*$%$%
UHFHSWRUFHOOVXUIDFHVWDELOLW\-%LRO&KHP 279
)LXPHOOL+&DQFHGGD/DQG3RR000RGXODWLRQRI*$%$HUJLFWUDQVPLVVLRQE\
DFWLYLW\YLDSRVWV\QDSWLF&DGHSHQGHQWUHJXODWLRQRI.&&IXQFWLRQ1HXURQ 48
*DXYDLQ*&KDPPD,&KHY\4&DEH]DV&,ULQRSRXORX7%RGUXJ1&DUQDXG0
/pYL6DQG3RQFHU-&7KHQHXURQDO.&OFRWUDQVSRUWHU.&&LQIOXHQFHV
SRVWV\QDSWLF$03$UHFHSWRUFRQWHQWDQGODWHUDOGLIIXVLRQLQGHQGULWLFVSLQHV3URF1DWO$FDG
6FL86$108
*RQ]DOH]0DHVR-:LVH$*UHHQ$DQG.RHQLJ-$$JRQLVWLQGXFHG
GHVHQVLWL]DWLRQDQGHQGRF\WRVLVRIKHWHURGLPHULF*$%$%UHFHSWRUVLQ&+2.FHOOV(XU-
3KDUPDFRO 481
*UDPSS71RW]9%UROO,)LVFKHU1DQG%HQNH'&RQVWLWXWLYHDJRQLVW
DFFHOHUDWHGUHF\FOLQJDQGO\VRVRPDOGHJUDGDWLRQRI*$%$%UHFHSWRUVLQFRUWLFDOQHXURQV
0RO&HOO1HXURVFL 39
*UDPSS76DXWHU.0DUNRYLF%DQG%HQNH'*DPPDDPLQREXW\ULFDFLGW\SH
%UHFHSWRUVDUHFRQVWLWXWLYHO\LQWHUQDOL]HGYLDWKHFODWKULQGHSHQGHQWSDWKZD\DQGWDUJHWHGWR
O\VRVRPHVIRUGHJUDGDWLRQ-%LRO&KHP 282
ϰϭ
ϭϭϱϲ
ϭϭϱϳ
ϭϭϱϴ
ϭϭϱϵ
ϭϭϲϬ
ϭϭϲϭ
ϭϭϲϮ
ϭϭϲϯ
ϭϭϲϰ
ϭϭϲϱ
ϭϭϲϲ
ϭϭϲϳ
ϭϭϲϴ
ϭϭϲϵ
ϭϭϳϬ
ϭϭϳϭ
ϭϭϳϮ
ϭϭϳϯ
ϭϭϳϰ
ϭϭϳϱ
ϭϭϳϲ
ϭϭϳϳ
ϭϭϳϴ
ϭϭϳϵ
ϭϭϴϬ
ϭϭϴϭ
ϭϭϴϮ
ϭϭϴϯ
ϭϭϴϰ
ϭϭϴϱ
ϭϭϴϲ
ϭϭϴϳ
ϭϭϴϴ
ϭϭϴϵ
ϭϭϵϬ
ϭϭϵϭ
ϭϭϵϮ
ϭϭϵϯ
ϭϭϵϰ
ϭϭϵϱ
ϭϭϵϲ
ϭϭϵϳ
ϭϭϵϴ
ϭϭϵϵ
ϭϮϬϬ
ϭϮϬϭ
ϭϮϬϮ
ϭϮϬϯ
ϭϮϬϰ
ϭϮϬϱ
ϭϮϬϲ
ϭϮϬϳ
ϭϮϬϴ
+DQQDQ6:LONLQV0('HKJKDQL7DIWL(7KRPDV3%DGGHOH\60DQG6PDUW7*
*$%$%UHFHSWRULQWHUQDOLVDWLRQLVUHJXODWHGE\WKH5VXEXQLW-%LRO&KHP 286,
±
+DUWPDQQ$0%ODHVVH3.UDQ]7:HQ]06FKLQGOHU-.DLOD.)ULDXI(DQG
1RWKZDQJ+*2SSRVLWHHIIHFWRIPHPEUDQHUDIWSHUWXUEDWLRQRQWUDQVSRUWDFWLYLW\RI
.&&DQG1.&&-1HXURFKHP 111
,OLH$5DLPRQGR-9DQG$NHUPDQ&-$GHQRVLQHUHOHDVHGXULQJVHL]XUHV
DWWHQXDWHV*$%$$UHFHSWRUPHGLDWHGGHSRODUL]DWLRQ-1HXURVFL32
-HDQ;DYLHU&0HQWLV*=2
'RQRYDQ0-&DWWDHUW'DQG9LQD\/'XDO
SHUVRQDOLW\RI*$%$JO\FLQHPHGLDWHGGHSRODUL]DWLRQVLQLPPDWXUHVSLQDOFRUG3URF1DWO
$FDG6FL86$ 104
-HGOLFND3'HOOHU7*XWNLQ%6%DFNXV.+$FWLYLW\GHSHQGHQWLQWUDFHOOXODU
FKORULGHDFFXPXODWLRQDQGGLIIXVLRQFRQWUROV*$%$$UHFHSWRUPHGLDWHGV\QDSWLF
WUDQVPLVVLRQ+LSSRFDPSXV21
.DLOD.,RQLFEDVLVRI*$%$$UHFHSWRUFKDQQHOIXQFWLRQLQWKHQHUYRXVV\VWHP3URJ
1HXURELRO 42
.LWDPXUD$,VKLEDVKL+:DWDQDEH07DNDWVXUX<%URGZLFN01DEHNXUD-
6XVWDLQHGGHSRODUL]LQJVKLIWRIWKH*$%$UHYHUVDOSRWHQWLDOE\JOXWDPDWHUHFHSWRUDFWLYDWLRQ
LQKLSSRFDPSDOQHXURQV1HXURVFL5HV62
.XQHU7DQG$XJXVWLQH*-$*HQHWLFDOO\(QFRGHG5DWLRPHWULF,QGLFDWRUIRU
&KORULGH&DSWXULQJ&KORULGH7UDQVLHQWVLQ&XOWXUHG+LSSRFDPSDO1HXURQV1HXURQ±
.X]KLNDQGDWKLO(9DQG2[IRUG*6&ODVVLF'GRSDPLQHUHFHSWRUDQWDJRQLVW5
FKORURK\GUR[\PHWK\OSKHQ\OWHWUDK\GUR+EHQ]D]HSLQH
K\GURFKORULGH6&+GLUHFWO\LQKLELWV*SURWHLQFRXSOHGLQZDUGO\UHFWLI\LQJSRWDVVLXP
FKDQQHOV0RO3KDUPDFRO62
,YDNLQH($$FWRQ%$0DKDGHYDQ92UPRQG-7DQJ03UHVVH\-&+XDQJ
0<1J''HOSLUH(6DOWHU0::RRGLQ0$DQG0F,QQHV551HWRLVD
.&&LQWHUDFWLQJSURWHLQUHTXLUHGIRUQHXURQDO&OUHJXODWLRQLQKLSSRFDPSDOQHXURQV3URF
1DWO$FDG6FL86$110
/DIIUD\67DQ.'XOOXF-%RXDOL%HQD]]RX]5&DOYHU$51DJ\)DQG/DQGU\0
'LVVRFLDWLRQDQGWUDIILFNLQJRIUDW*$%$%UHFHSWRUKHWHURGLPHUXSRQFKURQLF
FDSVDLFLQVWLPXODWLRQ(XU-1HXURVFL 25
/HH++'HHE7=:DONHU-$'DYLHV3$0RVV6-10'$UHFHSWRUDFWLYLW\
GRZQUHJXODWHV.&&UHVXOWLQJLQGHSRODUL]LQJ*$%$$UHFHSWRUPHGLDWHGFXUUHQWV1DW
1HXURVFL14,
/HH++-XUG5DQG0RVV6-7\URVLQHSKRVSKRU\ODWLRQUHJXODWHVWKH
PHPEUDQHWUDIILFNLQJRIWKHSRWDVVLXPFKORULGHFRWUDQVSRUWHU.&&0RO&HOO1HXURVFL 45
ϰϮ
ϭϮϬϵ
ϭϮϭϬ
ϭϮϭϭ
ϭϮϭϮ
ϭϮϭϯ
ϭϮϭϰ
ϭϮϭϱ
ϭϮϭϲ
ϭϮϭϳ
ϭϮϭϴ
ϭϮϭϵ
ϭϮϮϬ
ϭϮϮϭ
ϭϮϮϮ
ϭϮϮϯ
ϭϮϮϰ
ϭϮϮϱ
ϭϮϮϲ
ϭϮϮϳ
ϭϮϮϴ
ϭϮϮϵ
ϭϮϯϬ
ϭϮϯϭ
ϭϮϯϮ
ϭϮϯϯ
ϭϮϯϰ
ϭϮϯϱ
ϭϮϯϲ
ϭϮϯϳ
ϭϮϯϴ
ϭϮϯϵ
ϭϮϰϬ
ϭϮϰϭ
ϭϮϰϮ
ϭϮϰϯ
ϭϮϰϰ
ϭϮϰϱ
ϭϮϰϲ
ϭϮϰϳ
ϭϮϰϴ
ϭϮϰϵ
ϭϮϱϬ
ϭϮϱϭ
ϭϮϱϮ
ϭϮϱϯ
ϭϮϱϰ
ϭϮϱϱ
ϭϮϱϲ
ϭϮϱϳ
ϭϮϱϴ
ϭϮϱϵ
ϭϮϲϬ
ϭϮϲϭ
ϭϮϲϮ
ϭϮϲϯ
/HH++:DONHU-$:LOOLDPV-5*RRGLHU5-3D\QH-$DQG0RVV6-
'LUHFWSURWHLQNLQDVH&GHSHQGHQWSKRVSKRU\ODWLRQUHJXODWHVWKHFHOOVXUIDFHVWDELOLW\DQG
DFWLYLW\RIWKHSRWDVVLXPFKORULGHFRWUDQVSRUWHU.&&-%LRO&KHP 282
/HL6DQG0F%DLQ&-*$%$%UHFHSWRUPRGXODWLRQRIH[FLWDWRU\DQGLQKLELWRU\
V\QDSWLFWUDQVPLVVLRQRQWRUDW&$KLSSRFDPSDOLQWHUQHXURQV-3K\VLRO 546
/L+.KLUXJ6&DL&/XGZLJ$%ODHVVH3.ROLNRYD-$I]DORY5&ROHPDQ6.
/DXUL6$LUDNVLQHQ06.HLQlQHQ..KLURXJ/6DDUPD0.DLOD.DQG5LYHUD&
.&&LQWHUDFWVZLWKWKHGHQGULWLFF\WRVNHOHWRQWRSURPRWHVSLQHGHYHORSPHQW
1HXURQ 56
/VFKHU&-DQ/<6WRIIHO00DOHQND5&DQG1LFROO5$*SURWHLQFRXSOHG
LQZDUGO\UHFWLI\LQJ.FKDQQHOV*,5.VPHGLDWHSRVWV\QDSWLFEXWQRWSUHV\QDSWLF
WUDQVPLWWHUDFWLRQVLQKLSSRFDPSDOQHXURQV1HXURQ 19
0DKDGHYDQ9DQG:RRGLQ0$5HJXODWLRQRIQHXURQDOFKORULGHKRPHRVWDVLVE\
QHXURPRGXODWRUV-3K\VLRO594
0DKDGHYDQ93UHVVH\-&$FWRQ%$8YDURY3+XDQJ0<&KHYULHU-3XFKDOVNL
$/L&0,YDNLQH($$LUDNVLQHQ06'HOSLUH(0F,QQHV55DQG:RRGLQ0$
.DLQDWHUHFHSWRUVFRH[LVWLQDIXQFWLRQDOFRPSOH[ZLWK.&&DQGUHJXODWHFKORULGH
KRPHRVWDVLVLQKLSSRFDPSDOQHXURQV&HOO5HS7
0DUNRYD20XNKWDURY05HDO(-DFRE<DQG%UHJHVWRYVNL3*HQHWLFDOO\
HQFRGHGFKORULGHLQGLFDWRUZLWKLPSURYHGVHQVLWLYLW\-1HXURVFL0HWKRGV 170
0HGLQD,)ULHGHO35LYHUD&.DKOH.7.RXUGRXJOL18YDURY33HOOHJULQR&
&XUUHQWYLHZRQWKHIXQFWLRQDOUHJXODWLRQRIWKHQHXURQDO.&OFRWUDQVSRUWHU.&&
)URQW&HOO1HXURVFL
0RULWD.7VXPRWR.$LKDUD.%LGLUHFWLRQDOPRGXODWLRQRIQHXURQDOUHVSRQVHVE\
GHSRODUL]LQJ*$%$HUJLFLQSXWV%LRSK\V-
1HKULQJ5%+RULNDZD+3(O)DU2.QHXVVHO0%UDQGVWDWWHU-+6WDPP6
:LVFKPH\HU(%HW]+DQG.DUVFKLQ$7KHPHWDERWURSLF*$%$%UHFHSWRU
GLUHFWO\LQWHUDFWVZLWKWKHDFWLYDWLQJWUDQVFULSWLRQIDFWRU-%LRO&KHP 275
2UPRQG-DQG:RRGLQ0$'LVLQKLELWLRQPHGLDWHVDIRUPRIKLSSRFDPSDOORQJ
WHUPSRWHQWLDWLRQLQDUHD&$3/R62QHH
3DUN+-XQJ+&KRL.%DLN-DQG5KLP+'LUHFWLQWHUDFWLRQDQGIXQFWLRQDO
FRXSOLQJEHWZHHQYROWDJHJDWHG&D9&DFKDQQHODQG*$%$%UHFHSWRUVXEXQLW
)(%6OHWWHUV584
3D\QH-$5LYHUD&9RLSLR-DQG.DLOD.&DWLRQFKORULGHFRWUDQVSRUWHUVLQ
QHXURQDOFRPPXQLFDWLRQGHYHORSPHQWDQGWUDXPD7UHQGV1HXURVFL 26
3D\QH-$6WHYHQVRQ7-DQG'RQDOGVRQ/)0ROHFXODUFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRID
SXWDWLYH.&OFRWUDQVSRUWHULQUDWEUDLQ$QHXURQDOVSHFLILFLVRIRUP-%LRO&KHP 271
3RQWLHU60/DKDLH1*LQKDP56W*HODLV)%RQLQ+%HOO'-)O\QQ+7UXGHDX
/(0F,OKLQQH\-:KLWH-+DQG%RXYLHU0&RRUGLQDWHGDFWLRQRI16)DQG3.&
UHJXODWHV*$%$%UHFHSWRUVLJQDOLQJHIILFDF\(0%2- 25
ϰϯ
ϭϮϲϰ
ϭϮϲϱ
ϭϮϲϲ
ϭϮϲϳ
ϭϮϲϴ
ϭϮϲϵ
ϭϮϳϬ
ϭϮϳϭ
ϭϮϳϮ
ϭϮϳϯ
ϭϮϳϰ
ϭϮϳϱ
ϭϮϳϲ
ϭϮϳϳ
ϭϮϳϴ
ϭϮϳϵ
ϭϮϴϬ
ϭϮϴϭ
ϭϮϴϮ
ϭϮϴϯ
ϭϮϴϰ
ϭϮϴϱ
ϭϮϴϲ
ϭϮϴϳ
ϭϮϴϴ
ϭϮϴϵ
ϭϮϵϬ
ϭϮϵϭ
ϭϮϵϮ
ϭϮϵϯ
ϭϮϵϰ
ϭϮϵϱ
ϭϮϵϲ
ϭϮϵϳ
ϭϮϵϴ
ϭϮϵϵ
ϭϯϬϬ
ϭϯϬϭ
ϭϯϬϮ
ϭϯϬϯ
ϭϯϬϰ
ϭϯϬϱ
ϭϯϬϲ
ϭϯϬϳ
ϭϯϬϴ
ϭϯϬϵ
ϭϯϭϬ
ϭϯϭϭ
ϭϯϭϮ
ϭϯϭϯ
ϭϯϭϰ
ϭϯϭϱ
ϭϯϭϲ
ϭϯϭϳ
3RROHU$0*UD\$*DQG0F,OKLQQH\5$,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIDQRYHOUHJLRQRIWKH
*$%$%&WHUPLQXVWKDWUHJXODWHVVXUIDFHH[SUHVVLRQDQGQHXURQDOWDUJHWLQJRIWKH
*$%$%UHFHSWRU(XU-1HXURVFL
3UHVFRWW6$6HMQRZVNL7-DQG'H.RQLQFN<5HGXFWLRQRIDQLRQUHYHUVDO
SRWHQWLDOVXEYHUWVWKHLQKLELWRU\FRQWURORIILULQJUDWHLQVSLQDOODPLQD,QHXURQVWRZDUGVD
ELRSK\VLFDOEDVLVIRUQHXURSDWKLFSDLQ0RO3DLQ 2
3XVNDUMRY0$KPDG).DLOD.DQG%ODHVVH3$FWLYLW\GHSHQGHQWFOHDYDJHRI
WKH.&OFRWUDQVSRUWHU.&&PHGLDWHGE\FDOFLXPDFWLYDWHGSURWHDVHFDOSDLQ-1HXURVFL 32
5DLPRQGR-9.D\/(OOHQGHU7-$NHUPDQ&-2SWRJHQHWLFVLOHQFLQJ
VWUDWHJLHVGLIIHULQWKHLUHIIHFWVRQLQKLELWRU\V\QDSWLFWUDQVPLVVLRQ1DW1HXURVFL
5LYHUD&9RLSLR-3D\QH-$5XXVXYXRUL(/DKWLQHQ+/DPVD.3LUYROD8
6DDUPD0DQG.DLOD.7KH.&OFRWUDQVSRUWHU.&&UHQGHUV*$%$
K\SHUSRODUL]LQJGXULQJQHXURQDOPDWXUDWLRQ1DWXUH 397
5LYHUD&/L+7KRPDV&UXVHOOV-/DKWLQHQ+9LLWDQHQ71DQREDVKYLOL$.RNDLD
=$LUDNVLQHQ069RLSLR-.DLOD.6DDUPD0%'1)LQGXFHG7UN%DFWLYDWLRQ
GRZQUHJXODWHVWKH.&OFRWUDQVSRUWHU.&&DQGLPSDLUVQHXURQDO&OH[WUXVLRQ-&HOO
%LRO159
5LYHUD&9RLSLR-7KRPDV&UXVHOOV-/L+(PUL=6LSLOD63D\QH-$
0LQLFKLHOOR/6DDUPD0DQG.DLOD.0HFKDQLVPRIDFWLYLW\GHSHQGHQW
GRZQUHJXODWLRQRIWKHQHXURQVSHFLILF.&OFRWUDQVSRUWHU.&&-1HXURVFL 24
6DUDJD)%DOHQD7:RODQVN\7'LFNVRQ&7DQG:RRGLQ0$,QKLELWRU\
V\QDSWLFSODVWLFLW\UHJXODWHVS\UDPLGDOQHXURQVSLNLQJLQWKHURGHQWKLSSRFDPSXV
1HXURVFLHQFH 155
6FDQ]LDQL0*$%$VSLOORYHUDFWLYDWHVSRVWV\QDSWLF*$%$%UHFHSWRUVWRFRQWURO
UK\WKPLFKLSSRFDPSDODFWLYLW\1HXURQ 25
6FKXOHU9/VFKHU&%ODQFKHW&.OL[16DQVLJ*.OHEV.6FKPXW]0+HLG-
*HQWU\&8UEDQ/)R[$6SRRUHQ:-DWRQ$/9LJRXUHW-3R]]D0.HOO\3+
0RVEDFKHU-)URHVWO:.lVOLQ(.RUQ5%LVFKRII6.DXSPDQQ.YDQGHU3XWWHQ
+DQG%HWWOHU%(SLOHSV\K\SHUDOJHVLDLPSDLUHGPHPRU\DQGORVVRISUHDQG
SRVWV\QDSWLF*$%$%UHVSRQVHVLQPLFHODFNLQJ*$%$%1HXURQ31
6FKZHQN-0HW]0=ROOHV*7XUHFHN5)ULW]LXV7%LOGO:7DUXVDZD(.XOLN$
8QJHU$,YDQNRYD.6HGGLN57LDR-<5DMDOX07URMDQRYD-5RKGH9
*DVVPDQQ06FKXOWH8)DNOHU%DQG%HWWOHU%1DWLYH*$%$%UHFHSWRUVDUH
KHWHURPXOWLPHUVZLWKDIDPLO\RIDX[LOLDU\VXEXQLWV1DWXUH 465
6WRSSLQL/%XFKV3$DQG0XOOHU'$VLPSOHPHWKRGIRURUJDQRW\SLFFXOWXUHVRI
QHUYRXVWLVVXH-1HXURVFL0HWKRGV
7DNLJDZD7DQG$O]KHLPHU&3KDVLFDQGWRQLFDWWHQXDWLRQRI(363VE\LQZDUG
UHFWLILHU.FKDQQHOVLQUDWKLSSRFDPSDOS\UDPLGDOFHOOV-3K\VLRO3W±
ϰϰ
ϭϯϭϴ
ϭϯϭϵ
ϭϯϮϬ
ϭϯϮϭ
ϭϯϮϮ
ϭϯϮϯ
ϭϯϮϰ
ϭϯϮϱ
ϭϯϮϲ
ϭϯϮϳ
ϭϯϮϴ
ϭϯϮϵ
ϭϯϯϬ
ϭϯϯϭ
ϭϯϯϮ
ϭϯϯϯ
ϭϯϯϰ
ϭϯϯϱ
ϭϯϯϲ
ϭϯϯϳ
ϭϯϯϴ
ϭϯϯϵ
ϭϯϰϬ
ϭϯϰϭ
ϭϯϰϮ
ϭϯϰϯ
ϭϯϰϰ
ϭϯϰϱ
ϭϯϰϲ
ϭϯϰϳ
ϭϯϰϴ
ϭϯϰϵ
ϭϯϱϬ
ϭϯϱϭ
ϭϯϱϮ
ϭϯϱϯ
ϭϯϱϰ
ϭϯϱϱ
ϭϯϱϲ
ϭϯϱϳ
ϭϯϱϴ
ϭϯϱϵ
ϭϯϲϬ
ϭϯϲϭ
ϭϯϲϮ
ϭϯϲϯ
ϭϯϲϰ
ϭϯϲϱ
ϭϯϲϲ
ϭϯϲϳ
ϭϯϲϴ
ϭϯϲϵ
ϭϯϳϬ
ϭϯϳϭ
ϭϯϳϮ
7DR:+LJJV0+6SDLQ:-5DQVRP&%3RVWV\QDSWLF*$%$%UHFHSWRUV
HQKDQFHH[WUDV\QDSWLF*$%$$UHFHSWRUIXQFWLRQLQGHQWDWHJ\UXVJUDQXOHFHOOV-1HXURVFL
33
7KRPDV&UXVHOOV-9LHLUD$6DDUPD05LYHUD&$QRYHOPHWKRGIRUPRQLWRULQJ
VXUIDFHPHPEUDQHWUDIILFNLQJRQKLSSRFDPSDODFXWHVOLFHSUHSDUDWLRQ-1HXURVFL0HWKRGV
125
8YDURY3/XGZLJ$0DUNNDQHQ06RQL6+XEQHU&$5LYHUD&DQG$LUDNVLQHQ
06&RH[SUHVVLRQDQGKHWHURPHUL]DWLRQRIWZRQHXURQDO.&OFRWUDQVSRUWHULVRIRUPV
LQQHRQDWDOEUDLQ-%LRO&KHP 284
9DUJDV.-7HUXQXPD07HOOR-$3DQJDORV010RVV6-DQG&RXYH$
7KHDYDLODELOLW\RIVXUIDFH*$%$%UHFHSWRUVLVLQGHSHQGHQWRIJDPPDDPLQREXW\ULFDFLGEXW
FRQWUROOHGE\JOXWDPDWHLQFHQWUDOQHXURQV-%LRO&KHP 283
9HUQRQ(0H\HU*3LFNDUG/'HY.0ROQDU(&ROOLQJULGJH*/DQG+HQOH\-0
*$%$%UHFHSWRUVFRXSOHGLUHFWO\WRWKHWUDQVFULSWLRQIDFWRU$7)0RO&HOO1HXURVFL
17
9LJRW5%DUELHUL6%UlXQHU2VERUQH+7XUHFHN56KLJHPRWR5=KDQJ<3/XMiQ
5-DFREVRQ/+%LHUPDQQ%)ULWVFK\-09DFKHU&00OOHU06DQVLJ*
*XHWJ1&U\DQ-).DXSPDQQ.*DVVPDQQ02HUWQHU7*DQG%HWWOHU%
'LIIHUHQWLDOFRPSDUWPHQWDOL]DWLRQDQGGLVWLQFWIXQFWLRQVRI*$%$%UHFHSWRUYDULDQWV1HXURQ
50
:DNH+:DWDQDEH00RRUKRXVH$-.DQHPDWVX7+RULEH60DWVXNDZD1$VDL
.2MLND.+LUDWD0DQG1DEHNXUD-(DUO\FKDQJHVLQ.&&SKRVSKRU\ODWLRQLQ
UHVSRQVHWRQHXURQDOVWUHVVUHVXOWLQIXQFWLRQDOGRZQUHJXODWLRQ-1HXURVFL 27
:DQJ/.LWDL67DQG;LDQJ=$FWLYLW\GHSHQGHQWELGLUHFWLRQDOPRGLILFDWLRQRI
LQKLELWRU\V\QDSWLFWUDQVPLVVLRQLQUDWVXEWKDODPLFQHXURQV-1HXURVFL 26
:DWDQDEH0:DNH+0RRUKRXVH$-DQG1DEHNXUD-&OXVWHULQJRIQHXURQDO
.&OFRWUDQVSRUWHUVLQOLSLGUDIWVE\W\URVLQHSKRVSKRU\ODWLRQ-%LRO&KHP 284
:KLWH-+0F,OOKLQQH\5$:LVH$&LUXHOD)&KDQ:<(PVRQ3&%LOOLQWRQ$
DQG0DUVKDOO)+7KH*$%$%UHFHSWRULQWHUDFWVGLUHFWO\ZLWKWKHUHODWHG
WUDQVFULSWLRQIDFWRUV&5(%DQG$7)[3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$ 97
:LONLQV0(/L;DQG6PDUW7*7UDFNLQJFHOOVXUIDFH*$%$%UHFHSWRUVXVLQJ
DQDOSKDEXQJDURWR[LQWDJ-%LRO&KHP 283
:RRGLQ0$*DQJXO\.DQG3RR00&RLQFLGHQWSUHDQGSRVWV\QDSWLFDFWLYLW\
PRGLILHV*$%$HUJLFV\QDSVHVE\SRVWV\QDSWLFFKDQJHVLQ&OWUDQVSRUWHUDFWLYLW\1HXURQ
39
;X&=KDR0;3RR00DQG=KDQJ;+*$%$%UHFHSWRUDFWLYDWLRQ
PHGLDWHVIUHTXHQF\GHSHQGHQWSODVWLFLW\RIGHYHORSLQJ*$%$HUJLFV\QDSVHV1DW1HXURVFL
11
=KDR%:RQJ$<0XUVKLG$%RZLH'3UHVOH\-)DQG%HGIRUG).
,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIDQRYHOGLOHXFLQHPRWLIPHGLDWLQJ.&OFRWUDQVSRUWHU.&&FRQVWLWXWLYH
HQGRF\WRVLV&HOO6LJQDO 20
ϰϱ
ϭϯϳϯ
ϭϯϳϰ
ϭϯϳϱ
ϭϯϳϲ
ϭϯϳϳ
ϭϯϳϴ
=KRX+<&KHQ65%\XQ+6&KHQ+/L/+DQ+'/RSH]%HUHVWHLQ*6RRG
$.3DQ+/1PHWK\O'DVSDUWDWHUHFHSWRUDQGFDOSDLQPHGLDWHGSURWHRO\WLF
FOHDYDJHRI.&OFRWUDQVSRUWHULPSDLUVVSLQDOFKORULGHKRPHRVWDVLVLQQHXURSDWKLFSDLQ
-%LRO&KHP287
ϰϲ