RETHINK PAPER 14 / FEBRUARY 2014
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PROSPECTS FOR
WATER COOPERATION
IN CENTRAL ASIA
VLADIMIR FEDORENKO
PROSPECTS FOR WATER
COOPERATION IN CENTRAL ASIA
VLADIMIR FEDORENKO
RETHINK PAPER 14
February 2014
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CONTENTS
1
Summary
3
Introduction
5
Regional Organizations for Water Management in Central Asia
7
Perception Does Matter
8
The Current Situation
9
The Naryn HPP Cascade in Kyrgyzstan
10
The Rogun Project in Tajikistan
13
Population, Climate and Environment
16
Future Prospects and Policy Recommendations
22
Appendix: High-Level International Conference on Water
Cooperation, August 20-21, 2013, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
27
About the Author
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
Summary
Rivers flowing in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins throughout the
entire Central Asian territory divide the region into upstream
(Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) and downstream (Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) countries, creating a set of economic and
political challenges that force these riparian countries to interact.
Accordingly, transboundary waters can be seen either as a source of
competition and dispute, or as a uniting factor demanding mutual
cooperation. There are only two options for Central Asian republics
regarding transnational waters: they either compete against each other
for water supplies or agree to a collective approach and search for a
solution that will secure the interests of all involved parties. The only
effective way for addressing the Central Asian water dilemma is to
approach regional water management not as a source of competition or
dispute, but rather as a need that compels countries in the region to
cooperate by establishing regulating mechanisms. Such cooperation
among Central Asian states would lead to a number of benefits on the
national level as well as for the entire region. This paper elaborates on
the importance of the appropriate perception, definition, and approach
to challenges regarding transboundary waters in the Central Asian
republics. Additionally, the study aims to accentuate the economic,
sociopolitical and environmental benefits for all riparian countries in the
region that would result from a shift from a security-oriented outlook to
a collaborative, regionally integrated approach to water management.
Keywords: Transboundary Waters, Syr Darya Basin, Amu Darya Basin,
Central Asia, Pamir Glaciers, Tien Shan Glaciers, Water Governance,
Water Management, Rogun Dam.
1
Vladimir Fedorenko
2
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
Introduction
Factors such as energy needs, growing economies, increasing
population, industrial and agricultural usage, sanitation, and domestic
needs make transboundary water resources a very sensitive topic in
developing Central Asia. Five Central Asian states, including Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, rely on water
from the transboundary rivers, Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Rivers flowing
in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins throughout the entire Central
Asian territory divide the region into upstream (Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan) and downstream (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan) countries, creating a set of economic and political
circumstances that force these riparian countries to interact. The Syr
Darya River originates from the Pamir-Alay and Tien-Shan mountains
located in Eastern Kyrgyzstan. It flows through Kyrgyzstan into
Tajikistan, and then to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and finally ends up in
the Aral Sea. The Amu Darya River originates from the Pamir Mountains
of Tajikistan. It flows along the border between Afghanistan and
Tajikistan and then transforms into the border between Turkmenistan
and Uzbekistan before finally reaching the Aral Sea. Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan are therefore more advantaged countries possessing more
water resources then the other three Central Asian states. For example,
economic hydroelectric potential in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is 99 and
317 kWh/y, while in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan these
values are only 27, 2 and 15 kWh/y, respectively (see Table I on page 8).
3
Vladimir Fedorenko
After the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asian republics
were primarily engaged in their most important missions of nationbuilding and securing national borders. The second decade of
independence brought many strong indicators of economic recovery,
growing integration into international markets, and a more stable
environment. In the past several years Central Asian republics have
found themselves at a crossroads for various ongoing multilateral
projects aiming to improve infrastructure, build roads, bridges, tunnels
and railroads, construct energy routes and pipelines, and promote
regional and global trade. In addition, some efforts dedicated to water
management, such as water-related organizations, were established.
However, they did not lead to the desired outcomes. Due to its
paramount importance, water is perceived as a scarce national resource
that should be secured at all costs,
transforming water-related issues into a
matter of national security and causing
Due to its paramount distrust and insecurity in the region.
importance, water is Competition and attempts to secure
perceived as a scarce already scant water supplies will only
national resource that increase the cost and reduce overall
should be secured at efficiency. Moreover, such an approach
all costs, transforming will not only bring extra costs, reduce
water-related issues regional trade, and affect economies, but
into a matter of it will also have negative sociopolitical
national security and effects on population and the
causing distrust and environment.
insecurity in the
region.
On the other hand, a possible solution to
the problem is approaching regional
waters not as a source of competition or
dispute, but rather as a need that compels
countries in the region to cooperate by establishing regulating
mechanisms and ratifying transnational treaties. Such cooperation
among Central Asian states would bring a number of benefits at a
national level, as well as for the entire region. First of all, collaboration
on water-related issues strengthens regional integration, contributes to
stability and security in the region, reduces costs, and improves
efficiency of water usage. Moreover, it is crucial to understand that it is
possible to set standards and establish appropriate norms and values
only as a result of a collective endeavor. Another important benefit of
multilateral cooperation is creating a policy of checks and balances on
water-related agreements and regulations vis-à-vis corresponding
institutions, regional states, and the international community.
4
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
In such circumstances, transboundary waters can be seen either as a
source of competition and dispute, or as a uniting factor demanding
mutual cooperation from all riparian countries. In other words, there are
only two options for Central Asian republics regarding transnational
waters: they either compete against each other in securing their water
supplies, or agree to a collective approach and search for a solution that
will secure the interests of all the involved parties. In fact, individual
attempts to secure water supplies will not only increase the cost of
water exploitation in each country, but will also encourage and
eventually compel other riparian republics to take reciprocal steps. This
contributes to escalating concerns for regional security and further
deterioration in the situation. Water cooperation, in contrast, will make
involved parties more interconnected, and, as a result, will allow them to
enjoy more efficient multidimensional partnerships and a much more
stable and safe neighborhood.
Regional Organizations for Water Management in
Central Asia
The following organizations were established in order to provide
solutions for effective water management in Central Asia: The Interstate
Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) and the International Fund
for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS). The effort to preserve rights and define
responsibilities in regards to transboundary river basins taken by the
ministers of the newly-independent Central Asian republics in Tashkent
on October 10, 1991, clearly demonstrates the importance and urgency
of the issue. Later, on February 18, 1992, five ministers of water
resources of Central Asian states (N. Kipshakbayev, M. Zulpuyev,
A. Nurov, А. Ilamanov, R. Giniyatullin) signed an agreement on
“cooperation in joint management, use and protection of interstate
sources of water resources” that enabled establishment of formal
institutions for water management and regulations such as the
Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC).1 In 1993 another
agreement, “On joint actions on resolving the problems related to the
Aral Sea and its coastal zone in environmental sanitation and socioeconomic development in the Aral Sea region,” was signed. As the result
of this agreement, the IFAS organization was formed in Almaty2. In 1993
the ICWC merged with the IFAS. However, the results they have achieved
fall far short of expectations.
Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia, September 2013,
<http://www.icwc-aral.uz/>
2 Ibid.
1
5
Vladimir Fedorenko
The Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) is a collective
organization established by five Central Asian states in order to facilitate
equal and just distribution of water resources throughout the region by
allocation of water quotas to each participating country. Among the six
executive bodies of the ICWC two main ones are: Basin Water
Organizations (BWOs), which are responsible for managing water flow
schedules and making decisions on water allocation of Amudarya and
Syrdarya rivers; and, Scientific Information Centers (SICs), which are in
charge of training officials, managing databases, and devising new
methods of sustainable usage and distribution of water resources. The
ICWC’s executive bodies monitor the implementation of water quotas,
fully reserving the right to adjust them up or down to as much as 15
percent. Their objective of achieving sustainable and effective water
management in Central Asia has fallen short of expectations because in
reality it proved to be very difficult to achieve water quotas that would
satisfy all the member states3.
Another important organization coordinating water resources in Central
Asia is the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS). It is an
international organization based in Kazakhstan that is dedicated to
water cooperation and environmental management of water resources
in the Aral Sea basin. The IFAS was established in 1993 together with the
Interstate Council for the Aral Sea Basin (ICAB); in 1997 these two
organizations merged. 4
It is true that establishment of the above-mentioned institutions was
driven by mutual understanding of the importance and even necessity of
collective action by all Central Asian states. However, due to the
conservative political priorities of the nation-states and the insecure
situation in the region at the time of their establishment, a considerable
decline in the effectiveness and, over time, the authority of these
institutions were experienced. Moreover, these organizations were
established before the international “pillars of transboundary waters”
were signed: the Convention on the Protection and Use of
Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Water
Convention), adopted in Helsinki in 1992; and the Convention on the
Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, signed
in New York on May 21, 1997.5 Furthermore, these Central Asian treaties
were not very effective because they were not strengthened by the
Beatrice Mosello, “Water in Central Asia: a Prospect of Conflict or Cooperation?”
<http://www.princeton.edu/jpia/past-issues-1/2008/9.pdf>, pp. 151-174
4 Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia, September 2013,
<http://www.icwc-aral.uz/>
5 Stephen C. McCaffrey, “Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of
International Watercourses”, May 1997,
<http://legal.un.org/avl/ha/clnuiw/clnuiw.html>
3
6
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
presence of civil society organizations and international observers. Also,
their central regulatory mechanism was based on internal dynamics of
national governments that did not see achievement of mutual
cooperation possible at the moment.
Perception Does Matter
The paramount question to be asked here is: “Why aren’t previous
agreements effective?” This is so, despite the fact that the nature of
transboundary waters dictates international engagement, and all
riparian countries agree that collaboration is necessary and the benefits
of such cooperation are quite obvious; yet there is, in practice, lack of
enthusiasm for cooperation. And more importantly, “Is this situation
going to remain the same in the future?”
In order to comprehend the current situation it is necessary to go back
to 1991, the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and understand the
environment in which the Central Asian states were established. In the
aftermath of the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union, the newlyindependent Central Asian States were quite occupied with
multidimensional and very complex tasks of nation-building. The first
decade of independence was very difficult in all of the Central Asian
states. Due to weak governance, disintegrated and inefficient economic
systems, the rise of extreme nationalism, and social discontent, national
security became the paramount task for local elites. The security
situation in the region became more troubled when, along with a
number of domestic problems, international peace and stability was
threatened by the eruption of the Tajik Civil War (1992-1997),
establishment of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and an even more
turbulent situation on borders with Afghanistan. In such an unstable
environment, every domestic and regional policy was carefully viewed
through the lens of national security. In fact, water resources were
treated in the same manner – upstream countries were to secure control
over the rivers while downstream countries were to secure the supply of
water by constructing reservoirs. Therefore, the fact that water is not
only a fundamental natural resource required for sustainable economic
growth and development, but also an indispensable ingredient for the
longevity and existence of any country, has positioned water resources
at the center of national security. For example, during the Tajik Civil War
insurgent groups threatened to explode the Usoi Dam on the Murghab
River, which holds the waters of Sarez Lake at an altitude of 3263 meters
7
Vladimir Fedorenko
(10,705 feet).6 In such an incident, 16,074 cubic kilometers of water in
the lake would pose serious threat to millions of people in Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
The Current Situation
In the following section some statistical information on the Central Asia
energy sector will be presented, along with several examples of the
latest and most significant hydroelectric projects with their advantages
and implications. This will enable us to give a fuller and more detailed
picture of Central Asia in the framework of current water issues.
Table 1 illustrates that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are two countries in
the region that have 69 percent and 22 percent respectively of the total
of regional hydroelectric potential. And as shown in table 2, Kyrgyzstan
and Tajikistan have insignificant reserves of hydrocarbons. Therefore,
they rely heavily on hydroelectric facilities in order to satisfy their
energy needs. However, in comparison to other sectors, hydroelectricity
is utilized only for 2 percent, which is extremely low when taking into
account the immense hydroelectric potential of the region.
Countries
HPP
Installed
capacity,
MW
Tajikistan
Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
Total
4037
2910
2248
1420
1
10616
Electricity
production
at HPP
(2005),
billion kWh
17.1
14.0
7.9
6.0
0
45.0
Hydro
potential,
billion
kWh/y
Utilization
of hydro
potential
%
317
99
27
15
2
460
6
14
29
49
0
10
% of
Central
Asian
hydro
potential
69
22
6
3
0
100
Table 1.Hydro-energy potential of Central Asian water basins7
Tajikistan’s annual hydropower potential is the highest in the region at
317 billion kWh, which is more than double that of all other Central
Asian countries combined. Also, Kyrgyzstan has 99 kWh per year figure,
which is two times more than the other three Central Asian states
together. In fact, Tajikistan exploits only 6 percent and Kyrgyzstan uses
Eurasianet, “Tajik Officials Increase Security at Dams and Other Strategic Facilities”,
October 2001,
<http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav101601a.shtml>
7Eurasian Bank of Development, “Water and energy resources of Central Asia”, p. 12
<http://www.eabr.org/general/upload/docs/publication/analyticalreports/obzor_wate
r_final_rus.pdf>
6
8
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
14 percent of its hydroelectric potential. As a result, the fact that the
upstream countries of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan do not have
hydrocarbons and have a huge hydroelectric potential that still remains
unutilized indicates that construction of hydroelectric projects is going
to be the main priority for these states in upcoming years.
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Gas
16
2
2
83
84
Oil
50
5
1
17
13
Coal
33
11
1
0
2
Hydro
1
82
96
0
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
Table 2. - Percentage of Energy Distribution by Sector in Central Asia8
The Naryn HPP Cascade in Kyrgyzstan
As a recent Hydro Power Plant (HPP) project initiated by Kyrgyzstan and
Russia shows, Kyrgyzstan is eager to utilize its rich hydroelectric
potential. On September 20, 2012, the governments of Russia and
Kyrgyzstan signed an agreement for the construction of the Naryn HPP
Cascade in Kyrgyzstan. The project, officially launched in June 2012, was
to be implemented by the Russian company RusHydro. Almazbek
Atambayev, president of Kyrgyzstan, and RusHydro Chairman Evgeny
Dod participated in the opening ceremony for the project. The Naryn
HPP Cascade will consist of four hydroelectric power stations:
Akbulunsky hydroelectric power station, Naryn GES-1, Naryn GES-2, and
Naryn GES-3, with a general power of 237 MWt and development of 942
million kVt/h.9 There are many positive aspects of the project. First, the
cascade will not affect the interests of neighboring Uzbekistan and
Kazakhstan and won’t necessitate the resettlement of Naryn region
inhabitants. Second, the project is also expected to create great
employment opportunities for local residents. The financing plan is the
following: Russia is to invest 50 percent of the cost and the other 50
percent will be in the form of an easy loan from Russia. Kyrgyzstan
envisions an investment of $412 million.10 The upper Naryn HPP cascade
is planned to be constructed within 5 – 6 years, while the first
Eurasian Bank of Development, “Water and energy resources of Central Asia”, p. 12
<http://www.eabr.org/general/upload/docs/publication/analyticalreports/obzor_wate
r_final_rus.pdf>
9 RusHydro, “RusHydro started the construction of Upper-Naryn cascade in Kyrgyzstan”,
December 2013, <http://www.rushydro.ru/press/news/86431.html>
10 Interfax, “Upper Naryn HPP cascade price to be finalized in a month”, October 2013,
<http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=451804>
8
9
Vladimir Fedorenko
hydroelectric facilities of Naryn GES-1 are expected to begin operating
by 201611.
The Rogun Project in Tajikistan
The 3.6 gigawatt Rogun Hydropower Project is a massive embankment
dam located on the Vaksh River about 110 kilometers northeast of
Dushanbe. The project was initiated back in 1965 and construction of
the dam began in 1976; however, due to the breakdown of the Soviet
Union and subsequent political and economic challenges, the project
could not be completed on time12. The Rogun Dam, when finished, is
supposed to become the tallest dam in the world with a projected height
of 355 meters. The dam was only half built when construction stopped.
In the early 2000s the project started and stopped several times due to
disagreements among the different sides involved in the project—the
Tajik government, the Russian government, RUSAL Company, etc. Plans
for completing Rogun Dam were revived in 2012 when the Tajik
government launched a plan aiming to raise $1.4 billion for the
completion of project; however, only 20 percent of the total could be
raised13. That amount was sufficient to cover expenses for two years of
construction. The World Bank offered alternatives for the Rogun project,
which included three different heights and three different capacities;
however, the Tajik government is likely to insist on maintaining the
original projected height.
Kyrgyz and Tajik national hydropower projects have become more
appealing due to the CASA-1000 Project. Supported by the World Bank,
the Islamic Development Bank, USAID, and the US Department of State,
CASA-1000 aims to create an energy grid between Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan and deliver generated hydroelectricity to Afghanistan and
Pakistan. As a result of international cooperation, this project will not
only bring direct financial contributions, enriching the economies of
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, but will also benefit all partner states by
creating numerous jobs and affordable electricity. In Kyrgyzstan alone,
the annual income from the project is anticipated to be around $40
million to $55 million14.
RusHydro, “RusHydro started the construction of Upper-Naryn cascade in Kyrgyzstan”,
December 2013, <http://www.rushydro.ru/press/news/86431.html>
12 Techno-economic assessment study for Rogun Hydroelectric construction study
September 2013
13 Hilary Kramer, ”Tajikistan's Rogun Dam to Be the Big Game-Changer”, April 2013,
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hilary-kramer/tajikistans-rogun-dam-to_b_3070932.html>
14 Tajikistan Newswire, “World Bank anticipates $1B investment in CASA-1000”,
December 2011,
http://www.universalnewswires.com/centralasia/tajikistan/viewstory.aspx?id=10964>
11
10
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
Undeniably, the aforementioned Kyrgyz and Tajik hydroelectric projects
will affect downstream countries. There are some concerns that should
be addressed, but there are also a number of positive implications for all
riparian countries, provided the projects are constructed and later
regulated with careful consideration of all stakeholders’ interests. The
most vivid example of water-related confrontation is Tashkent’s
discontent about hydroelectric projects of Bishkek and especially
Dushanbe’s Rogun Dam. Neighboring Uzbekistan is opposing the
construction, claiming that once built, the dam will deprive downstream
countries of water and have a negative effect on the agricultural sector,
especially cultivation of cotton crops. It is also believed that the
construction site is not a safe environment due to miscalculations in
construction or that seismic activity could pose a severe threat to the
downstream population. In 2012, Uzbek president Islam Karimov made
a statement that water may become “a cause for war in the region.”15
Karimov also mentioned the highly-publicized Rogun and Kambarata
hydroelectric power stations, saying that the Kazakh and Uzbek people
are at risk of floods due to construction of these projects.
Tashkent’s concerns are important and deserve appropriate attention
from hydrologists and water engineers. But, there are also great benefits
for both upstream and downstream countries. Dams are known for
providing more effective water control and much better protection from
inclement weather conditions such as floods. They also create a more
stable and less costly method for generating electricity by offering a
periodic switch between hydroelectricity and thermoelectricity
production in order to benefit from the seasonal surplus of water flow.
In other words, during the high-water season one state (depending on
the meteorological situation from May to August) transfers a surplus of
generated electricity to another, and during the low-water season (in the
winter months) becomes the recipient of electricity generated from
thermoelectric plants under the terms of a reciprocal agreement.
Such collaboration can be illustrated by the following example. On
February 7, 1920, the Soviet Central Executive Committee, under the
leadership of Gleb Krzhizhanovskii, established the State Electrification
Commission (GOELRO). The goal of the Main Electrotechnical
Administration (Glavelektro) was to create a Unified Energy System
(UES) to electrify the whole country by creating a network of regional
D. Mukhtarov, “Uzbek president: Water issue may cause conflict in Central Asia”,
September 2012, <http://en.trend.az/capital/energy/2062850.html>
15
11
Vladimir Fedorenko
power stations.16 The Central Asian region also became a part of the the
Unified Energy System. For instance, during high-water season
Tajikistan transferred electricity generated from water surplus at local
hydropower plants to the southern part of Uzbekistan. In return, during
the low-water winter season Uzbekistan, by using its hydrocarbon
reserves, generated electricity at local thermal power stations such as
Bekabadskaya GRES, and transferred electricity to satisfy energy needs
in Sughd Province in the northern part of Tajikistan. Both republics were
benefiting from diversification of energy sources, since it was a cost
effective and more stable method of generating electricity.
It is important to understand that the Unified Energy System was
established as a result of a series of research studies and careful
calculations of all national resources. The main goal of the Unified
Energy System was to create a single nationwide energy network with
the most efficient, reliable, and productive methods.
And indeed, the UES had been used successfully until the collapse of the
USSR. The only major change that has happened in the region since then
is delimitation of sovereign borders. These borders not only demarcated
the territories of the new sovereign states, but also created political
barriers preventing future cooperation and obstructing an already
proven and efficient energy project. Moreover, under this system
hydroelectric plants produce electricity in the most cost-wise, efficient
way that is also the most environmentally friendly.
There is another evidence of regional collaboration regarding water
resources in Central Asia. According to Tikhonov Grigory Ivanovich
(Тихонов Георгий Иванович), member of the State Duma of the
Russian Federation (the lower house of the Russian Parliament) and
renowned expert on water resources and energy, the instrumental role
in the promotion and construction of Rogun Dam was played by the
collaborative effort of the First Secretary of the Central Committee of the
Communist Party of Uzbekistan, Rashidov S. R. (Рашидов Ш.Р.), and the
First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of
Tajikistan, Rasulov D.R. (Расулов Д.Р.).1718 Therefore, it is apparent that
the conservative political approach of treating transboundary waters as
a problem, rather than as a challenge demanding a collective resolution
approach, is the main obstacle preventing regional water cooperation.
Lenin’s speech Delivered To The Moscow Gubernia Conference on November 1920,
“Our Foreign and Domestic Position and Party Tasks”
<http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1920/nov/21.htm>
17 Tikhonov and Shishkin, <http://narodinfo.ru/articles/41246.html>
18 Diana Alieva, “Tajikistan-Uzbekistan: Politics from the height of Rogun Dam”, October
2011, <http://www.islamnews.ru/news-94231.html>
16
12
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
Population, Climate and Environment
It is important to understand the current demographic and ecological
situation of the Central Asian region because it directly affects waterrelated issues such as consumption and utilization of water in different
sectors of the economy. In the following section statistics regarding
demographic, ecologic and environmental changes in Central Asia will be
provided.
Regional population is an important factor directly correlated with
water resources. Nowadays, the population of Central Asian countries is
growing fast. From 1990 to 2013 the total population of Central Asia
increased by 14.5 million, which translates into a 29 percent increase
(see table 3). During the Soviet period population growth in Central
Asian countries was even more substantial. According to Horsman, the
population of Central Asia increased by as much as 140 percent from
1959 to 198919. Moreover, it is expected that the population will grow by
at least 35-50 percent in most of the Central Asian states by the 2050s.
Kazakhstan
Total
Population,
million
(1990 est)
16,5
Total
population,
million
(2013 est)
17,7
Kyrgyzstan
4,4
5,5
26 %
Uzbekistan
20,5
28,6
39 %
Turkmenistan
3,6
5,1
39 %
Tajikistan
5,3
7,9
49 %
Total
50,4
64,7
29 %
Countries
Growth
1990-2013
7%
Table 3. Population in Central Asian countries, Data source: ICPD Beyond
2014 and CIA World Factbook
As the population in Central Asia grows, so does the water consumption.
Personal water usage and consumption of water for irrigation have both
been increasing continuously. This has been emphasized frequently by
the leaders of the Central Asian republics. For example, recently Nurlan
Kapparov, Minister of Environment and Water Resources of Kazakhstan,
said that by 2040 the yearly demand for water resources will skyrocket
from the current 16 billion cubic meters to 25 billion cubic meters,
which constitutes growth of 56 percent. Kapparov said that this forecast
Horsman, “Water in Central Asia: Regional Cooperation or Conflict?” in Allison, R. and
Jonson, L. (eds.), Central Asian Security: The New International Context, pp. 69-94.
London: Brookings and Royal Institute of International Affairs. 2001
19
13
Vladimir Fedorenko
is based on the projected population growth of Kazakhstan to 20.8
million over the reported period. In addition, expanding industrial and
agricultural sectors will also necessitate higher water consumption20.
Other Central Asian states are likely to go through development similar
to that of Kazakhstan.
Figure 1. Glacier volume change in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan due to
temperature rises21
D. Mukhtarov, “Minister: Kazakhstan expects growth in water consumption” December
2013,<http://en.trend.az/capital/business/2224712.html>
21 Images were acquired from the documentary video “Glaciers of Central Asia and
Climate Change”, Youtube channel Waterunitesca, managed by the executive committee
20
14
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
The situation is exacerbated by climate change and global warming,
which have resulted in considerable loss of ice mass in glaciers. Figure 1
illustrates the correlation between global warming and decreases in the
volume of glaciers in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan contains 45
percent of all glaciers in Central Asia22. Both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
are reliant on water melted from glaciers for constant water flow in
rivers. As shown in Figure 2, Fedchenko Glacier in Tajikistan, which is
the longest glacier outside the Earth’s Polar Regions at a length of 70-77
km (47 miles), melted significantly between 1976 and 2006.23 In the
short term, glacier melt leads to increases in river water flows that
benefits the countries, but in the long term loss of ice mass will
potentially result in reduced flow of water in rivers. Therefore, with
constantly increasing population, growing economies, and climate
changes affecting water supply in the region water becomes scarcer,
while potential conflict over water resources becomes more likely.
Figure 2. Melting of Fedchenko Glacier in Tajikistan24
Another important environmental issue is drying of the Aral Sea due to
overuse of water resources. According to Luterbacher et al, the surface
of International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS)
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHZeAk16Fyg>
22 Luterbacher, Kuzmichenok, Shalpykova, and Wiegandt, “Glaciers and Efficient Water
Use in Central Asia”, 2007,
<http://graduateinstitute.ch/files/live/sites/iheid/files/sites/admininst/shared/iheid/
800/luterbacher/luterbacher%20Orlove07_C19-corr.pdf>
23Shuji Iwata,
“Mapping Features of Fedchenko Glacier, the Pamirs, Central Asia from Space”, 2009,
<http://www.ehs.unu.edu/palm/file/get/8432>
24 Image was acquired from the documentary video “Glaciers of Central Asia and Climate
Change”, <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHZeAk16Fyg>
15
Vladimir Fedorenko
area and volume of the Aral Sea have declined by 35 percent and 58
percent respectively since the mid-1980s. Moreover, the quality of Aral
Sea water has deteriorated. Many species living in Aral Sea have already
become extinct or continue to disappear. Reduction of water flows and
drying of the Aral Sea have negative consequences for the economies of
Central Asian countries. One such consequence is the recent growing
trend of out-migration from the Aral Sea basin. A study conducted by the
World Bank in 1995 found that per capita GDP in the Aral Sea basin was
1.5 – 2.5 times lower than the average and often fell below poverty
limits. Most migrants are young people who are lured by economic
opportunities and relative stability in urban areas. The migration has
caused negative changes in the economy of Central Asian countries. For
example, the total loss caused by migration in Uzbekistan and
Kazakhstan Aral Sea basin from the 1970s to 2002 is equal to $20.4
million and $20.65 million respectively. The total loss caused by
migration in the whole Aral Sea region equals $70 million annually25.
Another negative consequence is decrease in the productivity of
agriculture. For example, in the 2000s productivity fell by 50 percent
compared to the 1990s26. In sum, Central Asian countries are facing a
complicated situation that influences many spheres due to the overall
decrease in water quantity and quality, and only cooperation and
collective approaches to water-related issues are likely to provide relief
from the tension gathering over the Central Asian republics.
Future Prospects and Policy Recommendations
Central Asia today is very different from what it used to be during the
first years of independence. In comparison to the past, today’s Central
Asia is much more secure, stronger politically and economically, better
integrated into the world economy, and more connected to its neighbors
and international markets. For these reasons, conducting water
partnerships and improving collaboration could be more effective under
the present domestic situation and regional environment than it has
been before. Therefore, I believe that Central Asia is ready to take a
second chance to rethink all water-related issues and search for
solutions in a more collaborative environment.
Victor A. Dukhovny, Mikhail G. Horst, “Transition to IWRM in lowlands of the Amu
Darya and the Syr Darya river basins” in “Transboundary Water Resources: A
Foundation for Regional Stability in Central Asia”, NATO Science for Peace and Security
Series C: Environmental Security 2008, pp 87-103
26 Victor A. Dukhovny, Mikhail G. Horst Transition to IWRM in lowlands of the Amu
darya and the Syr Darya river basins Transboundary Water Resources: A Foundation for
Regional Stability in Central Asia
NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security 2008, pp 87-103
25
16
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
Firstly, it should be noted that the only thing that is constant in the
world of hydrology is change. Extreme summer and winter seasons are
important and should receive proper attention during calculations of the
needs and assets of riparian countries. Thus, the key challenge is that
interstate agreements should be in a proper systematic format to serve
as a regulative canon, and at the same time they should have a certain
degree of flexibility to allow for adaptation to constant changes and
possible inclement weather conditions. The time scale for national
interests is another very crucial element worth consideration during
ratification of a protocol, since nowadays the pace of economic
development is so fast that the amount and nature of national demands
could change drastically over several years. How often should quotas,
needs, and standards of riparian
countries sharing transboundary waters
Appropriate be recalculated in accordance with rapid
engagement of economic and social changes occurring
international domestically or in the neighborhood?
organizations and Moreover, establishment of a region-wide
non-state actors could network for exchanging data, analyses,
provide positive input and experience among the riparian states
in terms of sharing is very important for rapid and efficient
experiences, serving collaboration. For example, programs
such
as
the
Central
Asia
as impartial referees Hydrometeorology
Modernization
in cases of dispute, Program (CAHMP) are important because
and contributing to they promote facilitation of regional
the system of checks cooperation
in
hydrometeorology,
and balances rebuild the infrastructure and human
facilitating power capacity in order to decrease disaster
distribution or risks, manage the consequences of
decision-making climate unpredictability, and improve
27
mechanisms. hydrometeorological services .
Appropriate engagement of international
organizations and non-state actors could provide positive input in terms
of sharing experiences, serving as impartial referees in cases of dispute,
and contributing to the system of checks and balances facilitating power
distribution or decision-making mechanisms. For instance, in the dispute
over Rogun Dam construction between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the
World Bank has been chosen as the independent expert consultant for
conducting all necessary research and calculations in order to provide
objective analyses on feasibility and standards of future exploitation.
World Bank, “Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Program”,
<http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/0,,contentMDK:
22792502~pagePK:146736~piPK:146830~theSitePK:258599,00.html>
27
17
Vladimir Fedorenko
While international conventions and agreements provide general
standards and common frameworks, day-to-day data and updated local
information could often be more important, since they provide more
accurate information about water needs, assets, and relationships
among riparian states. International rules and frameworks are not going
to work unless local sensitivities and changes are taken into
consideration. While the de jure situation tells us that every country is
equal in the eyes of the law, the de facto situation dictates that states are
different; there are upstream and downstream countries with their own
privileges, disadvantages, and responsibilities. Therefore, every
agreement should be drafted carefully by calculating the subtle
dynamics and local needs of all regional stakeholders. Anyone familiar
with transboundary water management knows that being a water
engineer or hydrologist is not enough, because in order to be a good
expert on water resources one needs to be a fine economist, sociologist,
and political scientist. Therefore, in the process of drafting new
agreements on regulation of transboundary water basins, it is necessary
to have a group of various experts in order to achieve accurate
calculations of benefits and responsibilities.
Big hydroelectric plants are very important projects capable of satisfying
national needs such as energy; however, middle sized and small HPPs
deserve attention from state and non-state organizations. In that regard,
not only installation of such technologies, but also all related official
procedures and bureaucratic requirements, should be simplified and
available for the private sector. Moreover, related workshops and
seminars should be organized for private companies and civil society
organizations to encourage their involvement in construction of small
and medium size HPPs. On appropriate terrain, small HPPs could easily
be set up and maintained, providing employment opportunities for the
local population, supplying electricity needs for a local settlement,
reducing the cost of energy transportation in contrast to transporting it
from distant big hydropower plants, and being more environmentally
friendly because they don’t bring significant changes to the natural
environment. Gravitation Water Vortex Power Plants (GWVPPs) are
small HPPs developed by Austrian engineer Franz Zotlöterer. He has
found a new way of maximizing the velocity of water flow by creating a
powerful vortex in a specially designed rotation tank to convert the
kinetic energy of water by rotating a turbine located in the middle of the
vortex.28 GWVPPs are very useful, a head of water required to generate
sufficient water pressure is as little as from 0,7 up to 2m and for a flow
Zotlöterer, “GRAVITATION-WATER-VORTEX-POWER-PLANTS”
<http://www.zotloeterer.com/welcome/gravitation-water-vortex-powerp5e95290545187f36f41dc60104091489.php>
28
18
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
volume from 0,05 up to 20m³/s and for a power range from 0,5 up to
160kW. In comparison to a standard turbine, the vortex system is
approximately 80 percent more efficient. Moreover, it is
environmentally friendly; for example, fish can pass through the vortex
tank unharmed and even travel upstream.29
Capacity development is a very important factor in enabling
implementation of good water management, and all stakeholders should
work to improve and modernize it. Capacity building should be
implemented on various levels such as educating people, training
professional personal, investing in related technology, as well as
establishing and developing necessary institutions. Institutional
development, I believe, is very important because unlike other types of
development, it cannot be hired or borrowed, but can only developed
domestically. Good quality education and classes on holistic knowledge
regarding water management and transboundary rivers and lake basins
is key to helping raise awareness, reduce pollution and excessive
consumption of fresh water. Besides, for long-lasting agreements and
efficient cooperation it is important to engage all stakeholders in
capacity development not only at domestic but also at regional and
international levels. In fact, negotiations among the riparian countries in
the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins have occurred primarily among
post-Soviet countries. However, despite the fact that Afghanistan is also
a riparian state, it has not been included as a stakeholder during regional
negotiations regarding water distribution, so in the future it is likely to
raise some questions.
Central Asian states are eager to protect and secure their existing water
resources and transboundary water supply, not because water is scarce
in Central Asia, but rather because there is tremendous
overconsumption and inefficient water management. Downstream
Uzbekistan, for instance, which is by far the most populous state in
Central Asia at 29.7 million, has almost double the amount of water
available per capita in comparison to Spain (47.2 million), which is one
of the major agricultural producers in Europe.30 Therefore the major
concern should be development of a proper strategy and introduction of
new technologies to reduce water consumption and increase efficiency.
In fact, open water conveyance channels for agricultural and domestic
needs in rural areas remain from the Soviet era and the majorities do not
have a proper isolation preventing evaporation and leakages. Therefore,
29Philip
Proefrock, “Capturing the Power of Whirlpools”, 2009,
<http://ecogeek.org/component/content/article/2488>
30 Rahaman and Varis eds., “Central Asian waters”, 2008,
<http://water.tkk.fi/English/wr/research/global/material/Central_Asian_Watersbook.pdf>
19
Vladimir Fedorenko
according to many experts I interviewed, the loss of transported water in
rural areas due to leakage and evaporation is around 30 percent.
Furthermore, techniques such as drip irrigation are much more waterefficient and also tested for productive results. Initial investments are
required for the system setup, but in the long run it is proven to be
effective and economic.
Since transboundary water is a shared natural resource, cooperation is
the only way to ensure its fair and balanced distribution among riparian
countries in the most efficient way. Only cooperation makes it possible
to adopt certain standards and have supranational governance or
controlling mechanisms to ensure their
implementation. It is not economically
Since transboundary attractive to invest, for example, in
water is a shared irrigation technology such31 as providing
natural resource, hydro isolation of aryks or installing
drip irrigation technology for a riparian
cooperation is the country, while another riparian neighbor
only way to ensure its satisfies its national water demand at no
fair and balanced additional cost by using old and
distribution among inefficient methods, even at the expense
riparian countries in of overusing transboundary waterways.
the most efficient way. Without a set of mutually agreed upon
Only cooperation standards, riparian states would choose
makes it possible to to benefit from their water resources at
adopt certain minimal cost without additional
standards and have investment, which would naturally lead
supranational to inefficiency and water overuse.
Therefore, establishment of watergovernance or related standards is a crucial step
controlling towards water-efficient, productive, and
mechanisms to ensure long-lasting cooperation.
their implementation.
In
conclusion,
the
majority
of
disagreements
and
water-related
problems in Central Asia do not stem from scarcity of water resources,
but rather from the distrust among riparian states and the lack of water
governance. Two decades of independence have shown that competitive
approach towards a common resource, such as transboundary waters,
has become extremely costly, affecting not only economies of all
stakeholders, but also diplomatic relations, environmental situation, and
people-to-people relations. And, with constantly growing demand for
Aryk is a small or medium size aqueduct conveying water mainly for agricultural
needs in Central Asia.
31
20
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
water, such a competition will have more detrimental results. Therefore,
the only constructive solution that will be mutually beneficial for all
countries is to establish a proper water governance system. Nowadays,
due to growing economies, increasing regional trade, and relatively
stable political situation, Central Asia is in much better condition to
achieve regional agreement on water governance, coordinate this effort
with international actors, make proper investments to increase
efficiency, and improve environmental conditions.
21
Vladimir Fedorenko
Appendix: High-Level International Conference on Water
Cooperation, August 20-21, 2013, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
I participated in the High-Level International Conference on Water
Cooperation that was held in Dushanbe on August 20-21, 2013, within
the framework of the International Year of Water Cooperation declared
by the UN. The main objective of the conference was to contribute to the
establishment of successful cooperation in transboundary water
resources in Central Asia. The conference was organized around four
general themes and four so-called crosscutting issues. General themes
were water cooperation for human development; water for economic
development; water for ecosystems; and water cooperation across
boundaries. Crosscutting issues discussed in the conference, such as
effect of water cooperation on gender capacity building, and sectoral
synergies, were tremendously important for Central Asian countries due
to the notable economic migration of the male population; weak
institutions and inefficient water governance; and poor regional
cooperation and exchange of knowledge. General themes plenaries were
led, among others by Shahid Habib, chief of the NASA Office of Applied
Science; Iskandar Abdullaev, CAREC Executive; Patricia Flor, EU Special
Representative for Central Asia; Alice Bouman-Dentener, Founder and
President of Women for Water Partnership; Akhtar Ali, Senior Water
Resource Specialist for the Asian Development Bank; Patricia Wouters of
Xiamen Law School.
The conference was an important milestone symbolizing an endeavor to
develop an effective framework for regional water governance. All the
panels and roundtable discussions I attended as well as all my
interviews with hydrologists and water experts, were built around the
importance of starting a constructive dialogue, and partnership and
cooperation are the next steps certain to follow. In this regard, I believe,
the main achievement of the conference was bringing together various
government officials, diplomats, analysts, scientists, journalists, lawyers,
businessmen, community leaders, and civil society organizations from
more than 120 countries in the format of collaborative discussions and
with a desire to contribute to searching for comprehensive solutions;
this was the most significant step toward a better understanding and
thus productive cooperation. It is important to understand that
platforms such as this conference are not supposed to come up with
instant answers and solutions to all problems, but rather are meant to
raise awareness, devise patterns of collaboration, exchange experiences
and ideas, and cultivate a culture of cooperation.
22
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
President of Tajikistan Emomalii Rahmon delivering opening remarks at
the High-Level International Conference on Water Cooperation on August
20, 2013.
Logo of the High-Level International Conference On Water Cooperation
displayed at the International Exhibition "Water Unites Us" August 21,
2013.
23
Vladimir Fedorenko
View from the top of rockfill-earth Nurek Dam located on the Vakhsh River
in Tajikistan. The photo was taken on August 22, 2013.
View from the top of the mountain looking down on the power house of
Nurek Dam located on the Vakhsh River in Tajikistan. The photo was taken
on August 22, 2013.
24
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
The coast of Lake Issyk Kul located in the Tian Shan Mountains in eastern
Kyrgyzstan.
25
Vladimir Fedorenko
26
Prospects for Water Cooperation in Central Asia
About the Author
Vladimir Fedorenko is a research fellow at the Rethink Institute. He
specializes in democratization processes, civil society and civic
movements, identity politics and nation-building processes in Central
Asia and Russia. He received BAs in international relations from Ege
University and accounting at Dokuz Eylul University, Turkey. He
received MA in political science from George Mason University. Vladimir
is the founder and president of the Tajik American Cultural Association.
He is also a columnist at Turkish Journal. He was previously the research
director at the Rumi Forum, Washington DC. He has authored several
publications and journal articles: “Importance of the Participation of
Civil Society into Effective Counter-terrorism Policies” published in one
of the NATO Science for Peace and Security book series titled Building
Terrorism Resistant Communities; “The Effect of the Extreme Ethnic
Nationalism on the Growth of the Terrorism in Russia” published in the
NATO Science for Peace and Security Series book titled Counter
Terrorism in Diverse Communities. His most recent works, Central Asia:
From Ethnic to Civic Nationalism, The New Silk Road Initiatives in Central
Asia are published by the Rethink Institute. He is a fluent in Russian,
Tajik, and Turkish.
27
Vladimir Fedorenko
28