Kentucky Weather
The Good, The Bad, and The
Ugly?
John Gordon
Chief Meteorologist
Your National Weather Service
2013 KAMM Annual Conference
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Office Area of Responsibility
County Warning Area:
► 2 states
► 59 counties (49 in central
Kentucky, 10 in southcentral Indiana)
► 2.79 million people (2010
Census)
► CWA includes state capital
(Frankfort) and 3 major
cities (Louisville, Lexington,
and Bowling Green)
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NWS in KY
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NWS OPERATIONS
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WATCHES & WARNINGS
weather.gov/louisville
weather.gov/lexington
weather.gov/bowlinggreen
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Point And Click Forecasts
• Point and click
forecasts provide the
highest detailed
forecast.
• Available on our
internet home page.
• Simply click on the
map to get a forecast
for that point
Available at: http://weather.gov/louisville
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weather.gov/louisville
National Digital
Forecast Database
www.weather.gov/ndfd/
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• The hourly
weather graph
allows you to
see the
forecasted
trend of several
meteorological
variables,
including
specific values
on the hour.
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In the past 5 years:
• Feb 2008 “Super Tuesday” Tornado
Outbreak
• Sep 2008: Hurricane Ike wind storm
• Jan 2009 Ice Storm
• Aug 4 2009 Louisville Flash Flood
• May 1-3 2010 southern KY Flood
• 2011: 72 Tornadoes
• Mar 2 2012 Tornadoes
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Deadly Weather
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Deadly Weather
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Deadly Weather
U.S. Weather Damages ($Millions)
$120,000.00
$100,000.00
$80,000.00
$60,000.00
$40,000.00
$20,000.00
$0.00
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The Summer of 2012
How would YOU describe it?
A.Torrid
B. Sultry
C. Drought
D. All of the Above
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The Summer of 2012
HOT!!
But HOW hot was it?
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21st Century Temperatures
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The Summer of 2012
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The Summer of 2012
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The Summer of 2012
Dry
Summer!
Dry
Year!
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Right now the earth is the hottest
it has been in the last 500,000
years.
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There have been several periods
over the past half million years
when the average global
temperature was warmer than it is
today.
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The #1 cause of Global Warming
is Burning of Fossil Fuels
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The #1 contributor of global
warming is volcanoes.
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We are 100% certain that climate
change is occurring.
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The climate has always been
changing, and will continue to
change in the future. The
question is what drives those
changes, what the changes will
be, and how severe.
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Who/What’s to Blame?
El Niño /
La Niña
(ENSO)?
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Who/What’s to Blame?
Pollution?
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Who/What’s to Blame?
?
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Who/What’s to Blame?
Solar Activity?
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Who/What’s to Blame?
Mankind?
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Who/What’s to Blame?
Mankind?
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Who/What’s to Blame?
Geothermal Activity?
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And the Answer Is…
YES!
(All of the above…and then some)
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Urban heat islands are merely
artifacts of official thermometers
usually being located at airports.
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Cities tend to stay warmer than
rural locations because of the vast
amounts of concrete and other
building material that hold on to
daytime heat well into the night.
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Urban Heat Islands
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Urban Heat Islands
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Weather = Climate
Weather
Climate
• Always changing
• Cyclical/Periodic
• Many contributing
elements
• Always changing
• Cyclical/Periodic
• Many contributing
elements
– Some known
– Some unknown
– Some known
– Some unknown
• Mankind
• Mankind
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Weather ≠ Climate
Weather
Climate
• Easily
Tracked/Measured
• Standard observations
of finite parameters
• Difficult to
Track/Measure
• Inconsistent
observations of various
parameters
– (Temperature, Pressure,
Humidity, Precip., Wind,
Clouds)
– Short database
– (CO2, SST, Sea Level,
Glacier area, etc.)
– Lengthy database
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What does all this mean?
• Weather and Climate for a specific
location are both complicated
• DON’T oversimplify by forecasting
based on one indicator
• DO frequently monitor the latest shortand long-term forecasts from the NWS
via weather.gov
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Flooding is the #1 weather-related
killer in the U.S.
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In an average year heat kills more
Americans than floods, lightning,
tornadoes, and hurricanes
combined.
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It is ok to leave your infant or pet
in the car while you run a 5 minute
errand in the spring.
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Never leave a child or pet in a
locked car!!!
Beat the Heat, Check the Backseat .
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ITS GET’N HOT IN
HERE!
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KY HEAT TRAGEDY
• July 21, 2005: Rockcastle County, KY, two-year
old Sebastian McCown died when he accidentally
locked himself inside of the car while his mother
slept. The temperature was 94 degrees that day.
• October 1, 2004: Brandenburg, Ky. An 11-monthold boy who was found dead in a car seat where
he was left for hours after his mother forgot about
him. The mother is identified as a nurse at the
Meade County Health Department.
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Lightning is 5000° F.
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Lightning is 50,000° F
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Lightning Trivia
Average
potential:
Average
Potential:
100,000,000volts
volts
100,000,000
Average
electrical
Average
Electrical
outlet: 110 volts
Outlet:
110 volts
Average
charge:
Average
Charge:
30,000
amps
30,000
amps
Average
household
Average
Household
appliance:
Appliance:
less
than
less than 10
amps
10 amps
CanCan
strikestrike
up to 25
upmiles
to 25 miles
away from the storm
Heats surrounding
air tosurrounding
50,000 deg F air to
Heats
50,000 degrees Fahrenheit
away from the storm
Most thunder inaudible
Most10thunder
is inaudible
beyond
miles
beyond 10 miles
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If caught outside during lightning,
lie flat on the ground to avoid
being the tallest object.
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If you’re a six foot long target
standing up, you’ll be a six foot
long target lying down. Instead,
crouch into a ball.
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Fact…or Fact?
If it is not raining, then there is no danger
from lightning.
Fiction.
Lightning often strikes outside of heavy rain,
and may strike as far as 10 miles from a
thunderstorm!
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Lightning Final Thoughts
• Lightning is the 1st thunderstorm hazard
to arrive and the last to leave
• Sep 1, 1979 - Lightning strikes a home in
Centerville, TN; completely destroying it;
it’s the 3rd time the house is hit since
being built 9 years earlier.
• When Thunder Roars, Move Indoors
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Severe thunderstorms are not as
dangerous as tornadoes.
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Severe thunderstorms produce
damaging winds, large hail, flash
flooding, and deadly lightning.
Severe thunderstorms should be
taken as seriously as tornadoes.
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The low pressure inside a tornado
causes buildings to explode.
Open windows to equalize the
pressure.
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Opening windows allows the
tornado’s winds into the building,
increasing the potential for
damage. If a tornado is
approaching, stay away from
windows!
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Tornado Facts
• Each year, the U.S.
averages 1,000
tornadoes
• Can occur at any time
of day or year
• In southern Indiana
and Kentucky, the
peak season is April,
May and June
Hardin Co. Tornado Jan 2, 2006
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Straight-line thunderstorm winds
can do as much damage as a
tornado.
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Thunderstorms can produce
winds over 100 mph, even without
a tornado.
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Seek shelter from a tornado in the
southwest corner of the
basement.
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The safest place in a basement is
under a heavy table or beneath
the stairwell, regardless of which
corner of the basement it is in.
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Safety Rules (LAMP)
• L – Get to the
LOWEST floor
• A – Stay AWAY from
windows
• M – Move to the
MIDDLE of the house
• P – PROTECT
yourself
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Tornado sirens are meant to alert
people in their homes that severe
weather is approaching.
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Tornado sirens are intended only
for people outside, not indoors!
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It’s safe to drive through 6 inches
of flowing water as long as the
road is paved.
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It is never safe to drive through
flowing water.
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Historically, Kentucky’s heaviest
spring floods occurred when
heavy rain fell on snow pack.
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Though heavy rain on snow does
sometimes lead to flooding, our
most widespread floods usually
come from prolonged periods of
heavy rain over a large area
during unusually warm winter
months.
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Two kinds of Floods
• Flood
• Flash Flood
Murray Kentucky N 16th Street
July 17, 2001
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1997 Flood, River Road
Photo courtesy of The Courier-Journal
What is a Flood?
• An inundation of water over an area.
• Much slower than in a Flash Flood
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What is a Flash Flood?
• A sudden inundation of water over an area.
• Usually caused by slow-moving storms, storms
repeatedly moving over the same area, or heavy
rain from tropical cyclones.
• Enhancement of flash flood due to terrain.
• Most flood deaths are due to flash floods
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One or two layers of thick clothing
will keep you warmer than several
layers of lightweight clothing.
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Several layers of lightweight
clothing insulate more effectively.
Also, layers can be removed if
you begin to get too warm.
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Collaboration with the
Media and EMA
…The Warning
Triad…
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Questions, Comments,
Suggestions?
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