Drivers of wheat yields in Western Siberian
bread basket of Russia
Alexander V. Prishchepov ([email protected])
Elena Ponkina, Zhanli Sun, Daniel Müller
AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES, IAMO FORUM 2015,
17-19 JUNE 2015, HALLE (SAALE), GERMANY
Introduction
Dynamic of arable land and population
Mln.Ha
Population:
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Introduction
Russia intends to increase wheat export, up to 40 Mt in
upcoming years
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Introduction
Contribution of abandoned lands to increase wheat production
(from 25 Mt in 2014 up to 30-35 Mt by 2019)
Account for crop
rotation
Average grain yield
2 dt/ha
4-10 Mt
6-15 Mt
Account for share of wheat in
total grain production
3-7 Mha
3-7 Mt
Final plausible estimate of
additional wheat
There should be focus Source: Meyfroidt et al., In review
production
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on yields increase!
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Some facts about Altai kraj in
breadbasket of Western Siberia
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Total area – 16,7 Mha
Arable land - 5,5 Mha
Sown area -3,6 Mha
Sown for wheat – 2,3 Mha
Leading region regarding
cropland extent out of 74
grain producing provinces
 Top 9th regarding total
wheat production
 67th regarding achieved
yields – 1,2 dt/ha for 20082012
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Kulunda region in Altai kraj
Total area- 8,8 Mha
Arable land - 4,17 Mha
Sown area- 3,5 Mha
70% of cropland are
affected by soil erosion
Source: www.kulunda.eu
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Geographic characteristics of
KULUNDA
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Source: www.kulunda.eu
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Characteristics of wheat production
576 corporate farms
1’325 individual farms
Size of Farms:
34% <2 thousand ha
28% 2-6 thousand ha
38% > 6 thousand ha
Average yields:
Forest steppe- 1,5 dt/ha
Typical steppe-1,1 dt/ha
Dry steppe-0,8 dt/ha
Source: Prishchepov A.
Source: www.kulunda.eu
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Overarching goal
To understand the drivers of current wheat yields in Kulunda
region of Altai Kray
Research Questions
What determines current wheat yields?
What determines wheat production and size of cropland
extent?
What determines adoption of best practices (i.e., no-till)?
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Materials and methods
Development and collection of structured
questionnaires
Focus interviews with stakeholders
Training interviewers
68 face-to-face interviews with heads and
managers of farms specializing in wheat
production +250 questionnaires from the
Ministry of Agriculture of Altaj kraj
Participatory development of models jointly
with stakeholders
Source: Prishchepov, A.
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Modeling Approach
Bayesian Belief Networks
Advantage
Causal relationship
Handle non-linearity
Handle missed data
Graphical presentation of
models
Involvement of stakeholders!
Source: Wikipedia
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Questionnaire
 Agro-environmental endowment (soil type, humus content,
precipitation, degree of aridity, degree of erosion)
 Input (fertilizers, seed types, technology and its fulfillment,
rotation of crops)
 Capital stock
 Machinery
 Land tenure
 Locational characteristics and distance to markets
 Personal characteristics of farmers (education, age, personal
attainment, inheritance of business, business strategies)
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Selected parameters
Covariates
Coding/ Unit
Degree of aridity
From 1 (no aridity HTC=1) to 4 (arid
climate =HTC 0.6)
Application of fertilizers
Dummy: “1” – Yes; “0” – No
Education of manager/ head of farm
Dummy: “1” – Higher degree in
agriculture; “0” – Absence
Application of herbicides
“0” – No, “1”-partial, “2”-complete
Crop rotation
Dummy: “1” – Yes; “0” – No
Sown area
In hectares
Use of modern drills
Dummy: “1” – Yes; “0” – No
Type of wheat cultivation technology
1- moldboard; 2 – minimal; 3 – any type
of no-till, other
Subjective evaluation of degree of soil
erosion
Degree 1-4, (“0” - strong, “100” - no
erosion, thee groups: 0-56, 56-78, 78-100)
Type of operations for soil moisture
conservation
0-No operations
1-Apply any of four operations out of
seven selected operation
2-Apply more than four operations
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Preliminary results –descriptive
statistics
Hectares
Sown area by farms
Forest steppe Typical steppe Dry steppe
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Preliminary results –descriptive
statistics
Average yields 2008-2012
Yields/ha
Wheat yields in 2012
Forest steppe Typical steppe Dry steppe
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Forest steppe Typical steppe Dry steppe
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Preliminary results –descriptive
statistics
Application of fertilizers
0
1
“0” –Do not use of fertilizers
“1” –Use of fertilizers
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Education of farm managers
0
1
“0” -Without higher education in agriculture
“1” -With higher education in agriculture
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Bayesian Network- Yields in 2012
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Results
Contribution of factors
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18
18
12
12
6
6
6
3
3
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Explained variance
Sown area
Degree of aridity
Crop rotation
Type of wheat cultivation technology
Application of fertilizers
Subjective evaluation of degree of soil
erosion
Type of operations for soil moisture
conservation
Application of herbicides
Use of modern drills
Education of manager/ head of farm
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Results
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Bayesian Network- Yields in 2012
Contribution of factors
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Conclusion
 Many farms in the region are highly vulnerable to weather
fluctuation and climate change
 We observe path dependence in decision making based on
land-use legacies
 If the plan is to stabilize and increase wheat production,
managerial characteristics (i.e., education of farm managers)
are needed to be improved.
 New cultivation techniques are important, but more
important is a strict fulfillment of existing cultivation practices
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Thank You!
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[email protected]
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