Spanish and French elections
Splinter parties gain votes
Anti-austerity Podemos party, formed just over a year ago, won 15 per cent of the
votes in Andalucia – and its first seats in parliament – though the Socialists kept a
grip on this their stronghold, while the Front National took a quarter of the
electorate but came second to the centre-right UMP.
A survey of 300 global fund managers by CFA UK found that they thought bonds
were more overvalued than ever, sovereign debt the most overvalued asset class of
all. Four out of five fund managers thought this way, no doubt the very people with
no fixed income assets on their books, as ever reinforcing group-think.
Nicole Elliott
DAX 30
IG Index chart
Holding around the psychological 12000 area and above trend line support.
Less overbought than last week but it won’t take much to break the line. Let’s
see what Angela Merkel has to say to Alex Tsipras in Berlin today.
DAY TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Very wary of all things German.
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
11895
11800
11740
11700
12000
12045
12200
12220
ii
Monday, 23 March 2015
FTSE 100
IG Index chart
A record high and weekly close above the psychological 7000 means all’s
well. Not so fast! Important to see how we end the month and Q1 2015, as
Friday’s move could end up looking like a false break.
DAY TRADER: Square and taking a back seat.
POSITION TAKER: Square now and don’t understand current market
psychology.
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
6960
6900
6800
6725
7030
7060
7075
8000
iii
Monday, 23 March 2015
S&P 500
IG Index chart
A dovish Janet Yellen at the FOMC has taken a little bit of the wind out of the
US dollar’s sails and helped stock indices towards record highs.
DAY TRADER: New small short at 2105; stop above 2125. Target 2045.
POSITION TAKER: Watching for evidence of topping around 2080-2100
in order to sell again.
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
2100
2080
2060
2040
2115
2120
2150
2175
iv
Monday, 23 March 2015
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
IG Index chart
Thrashing around under the psychological 1.5000 and we remind that moves
like these are usually associated with market peaks (in this case trough fro
sterling) rather than continuation patterns.
DAY TRADER: Watching rather nervously to see whether the uneasy
status quo since 2009 will give way.
POSITION TAKER: Central banks are testing market-makers’ patience.
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
1.4850
1.4755
1.4700
1.4635
1.4935
1.5000
1.5015
1.5135
v
Monday, 23 March 2015
EURO/US DOLLAR
IG Index chart
The euro is struggling under the first Fibonacci 38 per cent retracement
resistance as eyes are on Greece again today.
DAY TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Keep away from all things euro if possible.
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
1.0725
1.0600
1.0550
1.0500
1.0880
1.0920
1.1000
1.1045
vi
Monday, 23 March 2015
GOLD
IG Index chart
Nose above the 1180 parapet on a marginally weaker US dollar. With levels
not holding as neatly we are reluctant to get involved here until month-end.
DAY TRADER: Stopped out of a short position by the move above 1180.
POSITION TAKER: Will reinstate a core short on a weekly close below
1150.
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
1180
1168
1150
1142
1188
1190
1200
1220
vii
Monday, 23 March 2015
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