Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for the
Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Foresighting Workshop Report V3
April 2014
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Foresighting Workshop Report
Alexandra & Associates Pty Ltd
Alexandra & Associates Pty Ltd
16 Homestead Rd │ Eltham │ Victoria │ 3095
Mobile: 0407 943 916 │ Email: [email protected]
Macquarie Franklin
112 Wright Street | East Devonport | Tasmania | 7310
Phone: 03 6427 5300 | Fax: 03 6427 0876 | Email: [email protected]
Web: www.macquariefranklin.com.au
Primary author:
Jason Alexandra
Alexandra & Associates
Contributions by:
Mel Rae
Macquarie Franklin
Rohan Nelson
Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Document status:
Final
This report has been prepared in accordance with the scope of services described in the contract or
agreement between Macquarie Franklin, Alexandra & Associates and the Client. Any findings, conclusions
or recommendations only apply to the aforementioned circumstances and no greater reliance should be
assumed or drawn by the Client. Furthermore, the report has been prepared solely for use by the Client
and Macquarie Franklin and Alexandra & Associates accept no responsibility for its use by other parties.
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Contents
1
Executive summary.................................................................................................................... 1
2
Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 2
2.1
The scenario workshop ...................................................................................................... 2
2.2
An R&D project on design R&D........................................................................................... 3
2.2.1
3
4
5
6
7
Rapid appraisal to reconcile supply and demand for irrigation RD&E in Tasmania ....... 3
Exploring future directions through scenarios ............................................................................ 4
3.1
Drivers and scenarios ......................................................................................................... 4
3.2
Using scenarios for exploring the role and modes of RD&E ................................................. 5
3.3
Using scenarios for exploring the focus of the RD&E .......................................................... 6
Articulating RD&E priorities and sorting to themes .................................................................... 7
4.1
Emerging themes and priorities.......................................................................................... 7
4.2
Distilling the key questions for each theme ........................................................................ 8
Developing ideas for each theme ............................................................................................... 9
5.1.1
On-farm systems ...................................................................................................... 10
5.1.2
Natural resource management ................................................................................. 11
5.1.3
RD&E & E (Education) .............................................................................................. 12
Conclusions ............................................................................................................................. 13
6.1
Overarching questions ..................................................................................................... 13
6.2
Literature cited ................................................................................................................ 14
Appendices attached ............................................................................................................... 15
7.1
Appendix 1: Workshop Agenda ........................................................................................ 16
7.2
Appendix 2: Background materials for workshop participants .......................................... 19
7.3
Appendix 3: Workshop presentation on megratrends, drivers and scenario recap ............ 27
7.4
Appendix 4: Scenarios for exploring RD&E priorities ........................................................ 50
7.5
Appendix 5: Ideas generated for future RD&E priorities ................................................... 58
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1 Executive summary
In April 2014, a foresighting workshop was held in Launceston Tasmania. It was one important step
in a process of stakeholder consultation exploring research, development and extension (RD&E)
priorities for irrigated agriculture in Tasmania. The workshop used foresighting methods to involve
stakeholders in exploring and generating ideas on the kinds of irrigation-related RD&E that could
assist in delivering preferred futures for Tasmania. It was not intended to be a forum for decisionmaking or finalisation of priorities, but rather a forum for exploring possibilities. The next steps in
the planning process are to evaluate the ideas generated in the workshop and prioritise them
against the resources available to implement research, development and extension.
Approximately 40 industry and government stakeholders generated a wide range of priorities for
future RD&E as well as ideas on how to organise, deliver, and structure RD&E.
There was consensus that irrigation-related RD&E is critical to Tasmania and to the challenges of
creating a more sustainable and prosperous futures. The workshop identified the need for broad
partnerships across the research, education, policy and private sectors. There was strong advocacy
for the adoption of ambitious goals, and dynamic and responsive implementation towards those
goals.
Four dominant themes emerged. Future RD&E should:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Enable decisions that result in more productive, profitable and viable farms;
Assist in attracting investment in production, processing, manufacturing and exporting;
Protect catchment health and sustain productivity; and
Establish effective innovation networks that actively contribute to the above.
The following overarching questions encapsulate and summarise the directions identified:
1.
2.
3.
4.
How do we achieve more productive, profitable and viable farms that are able to
optimise resources (land, water, capital, labour) and sustain production, while also
minimising risks like salinity, eutrophication and soil decline?
How can we attract investment in processing, advanced manufacturing, exporting and
marketing that sustains demand for Tasmanian primary products?
How can we protect catchment health and sustainably manage natural resources at the
farm and catchment scale?
What approaches and arrangements for RD&E (the innovation systems) are required to
achieve the above goals?
This report provides a summary of the workshop and its key findings for discussion purposes. It is a
valuable starting point in a process designed to reconcile the supply and demand of irrigation related
RD&E. The topics discussed are not necessarily Government policy, nor will they necessarily be
adopted as core priorities by TIA or its partners. Additional workshops are already underway with
research and extension professionals in TIA and related research organisations to assess the
emerging priorities against current capability, and how they direct the development of future
research capability.
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2 Introduction
2.1 The scenario workshop
On the 2nd and 3rd of April 2014, a two day workshop was held in Launceston, Tasmania. The
workshop was part of the stakeholder consultation process designed to explore future RD&E
priorities for irrigated agriculture in Tasmania.
The workshop was held over two days. The first day was a field tour to set the scene about what is
happening with irrigation expansion in Tasmania. On the second day, foresighting was used to
explore how RD&E can assist in delivering preferred futures for irrigated agriculture (see appendix
1). Scenarios were used to stimulate participants’ ideas about the nature of possible futures as the
basis for evaluating future RD&E priorities.
About 30 attendees participated in the field trip of irrigation districts, new irrigation schemes and
farms that had used irrigation to convert to new or different enterprises, including large scale dairy
farming and intensive perennial horticulture.
About 40 people attended the foresighting workshop, representing key stakeholders and industries
with an interest in the future directions for irrigation, agriculture and regional development. The
invitees to the workshop and related interviews were a mix of middle to senior policy advisors,
researchers and executives in industry, government and community groups. Other participants
included owner/operators of large irrigated farming businesses, and the managers of other
agribusinesses such as banks and input supply companies.
The foresighting workshop was structured in three sessions:
1.
2.
3.
Introductions and exploration of the scenarios - stakeholders explored the three
scenarios and defined their views about RD&E that would be useful and influential in
shaping preferred futures;
Identification of possible RD&E priorities and the sorting of these into themes; and
The development of short statements providing a rationale for investing in programs of
work under each of four themes.
The workshop was intended as an open forum for stakeholders to articulate what they see as the
priorities for future RD&E.
The main advantages of cooperatively planning like this include:
-
The research priorities of TIA’s emerging irrigation RD&E program are seen as salient,
legitimate and credible (Cash et al. 2003);
-
There is high uptake of TIA’s research because it is co-developed with end-users;
-
TIA’s research will have high economic benefits because it is enables end-users to maximise
the benefits of irrigation while minimising the social and environmental costs; and
-
TIA is exposed directly to the views of its key stakeholders in Government and industry.
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2.2 An R&D project on design R&D
TIA and the consultants designed the workshop so that the data collected could contribute to a
research project on the use of foresighting methods to reconcile the supply and demand of this type
of applied research (see the box below). For example, participants completed a survey early on day
one, with a follow up survey late on day two, to explore the extent to which the foresighting
workshop had changed their on the opportunities and challenges associated with irrigation-related
RD&E. Summaries of the detailed methodologies, workshop approach and project planning are
provided throughout this document.
2.2.1
Rapid appraisal to reconcile supply and demand for irrigation RD&E in
Tasmania
Aims:
The aim of this research is to show that strategic foresighting workshops (Loveridge 2010) can be
used as a practical, timely and efficient methodology to reconcile the supply and demand for a
new research program. A paper by Sarewitz and Pielke Jr (2007) on reconciling the supply and
demand for science is the fourth most downloaded paper in the Journal of Environmental Science &
Policy but provides only high level guidance on methods for applying this approach.
This research is an experiment in creating a practical methodology for reconciling the supply and
demand for science for a new research, development and extension (RD&E) program. The
context is the development of a new irrigation research and development program for the
Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture (TIA) at the University of Tasmania (UTAS). Strategic
foresighting workshops with researchers (supply) and potential end-users (demand) will form
the core of an iterative process for eliciting and reconciling the supply and demand for irrigation
related R&D to support the expansion of irrigation schemes across Tasmania.
A first workshop with industry and government stakeholders was used to understand emerging
opportunities and challenges associated with the expansion of irrigation, and initial view on
which of these should be prioritised for research. A second workshop with researchers will
assess and refine these emerging goals for research based on existing scientific understanding,
the nature of each issue and their tractability for further research, and capacity to do this
research.
The two workshops will be supported by interviews and small group meetings to iteratively
refine and reconcile the research (supply) and end-user (demand) until reasonable consensus has
been achieved on the RD&E priorities for the new program. The functional output of the research
will be a strategic plan for the new research program. The research output will be a journal
paper documenting its development using strategic foresighting to implement the supply and
demand approach.
Justification:
This study is worth doing because the societal value of research is always more likely to be
realised if research is targetted towards enabling end-users to take advantage of opportunities
and overcome challenges. There is extensive literature debunking that idea that science is best
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done for its own sake because this will lead serendipitously to solutions for the challenges faced
by society (Jasanoff et al. 1998, Sarewitz and Pielke Jr 2007, Sarewitz 2010). Empirical studies have
shown that deeper scientific knowledge often follows rather than leads technological or market
opportunities, and public awareness of environmental or health issues. Using participatory
approaches to understand and co-produce knowledge results in science that is more relevant and
timely to emerging issues in society.
TIA’s irrigation RD&E program is being established to support a $500 million public/private
investment in irrigation infrastructure across the state. This proposal to use strategic foresighting
to reconcile the demand and supply of irrigation research is worth doing because it will focus
limited research funding on the highest research priorities of end-users. This will enable the
economic benefits of the investment in irrigation infrastructure to be realised as fully as possible
while anticipating and managing unintended social and environmental impacts.
3 Exploring future directions through scenarios
3.1 Drivers and scenarios
Attendees were provided with a package of background materials (see appendices 2 and 3) prior to
the workshop including:




Project objectives;
A recent Rabobank analysis of global trends and opportunities for Tasmanian agriculture;
Tasmanian water use and irrigation statistics; and
Three framing macro-scenarios for the future of Tasmania’s irrigated agriculture.
Many of the workshop attendees had also previously participated in briefing sessions where the
project objectives had been discussed in detail, along with preliminary discussions about future
RD&E needs.
The three scenarios used in the workshop were:
1.
2.
3.
Tasmania unlimited – go for growth;
Muddling through; and
Decline and stagnation.
A short presentation on mega trends and drivers, such as global population growth, was used to set
the scene for the workshop (see appendix 3), and to review the three scenarios (see appendix 4). An
outline of the foresighting method was provided and participants were invited to share in
developing “stories about the future”.
The scenarios offered were used to illustrate a range of plausible futures for Tasmania and to
provide a way of examining the complex relationships and interplays between policy settings,
research and practice change.
Foresighting using scenario planning is an established technique used within the discipline of future
studies to explore alternative futures because it is recognised method of investigation, capable of
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dealing with the non-linearity of complex systems which does not rely on extrapolating existing
trends, as result it is commonly used in the development of corporate strategies and has been
applied to national science planning (Alexandra 2012). For example, the Australian Science
Technology and Engineering Council study "Matching Science and Technology to Future Needs 2010"
found scenarios useful for redirecting established mindsets and for identifying trends relevant to
Australia’s international competitiveness (Australian Science Technology and Engineering Council
1996).
3.2 Using scenarios for exploring the role and modes of RD&E
After setting the scene with the presentation on trends, drivers and scenarios, attendees were
invited to work together in small groups to discuss which of the three scenarios, alone or in
combination, should be used to frame irrigation RD&E priorities. Groups were encouraged to add or
modify the scenarios and to define ways in which RD&E would be useful and influential in shaping
their preferred futures.
Five small discussion groups, each structured to encourage an eclectic mix of participants, explored
the scenarios and their implications for the kinds of RD&E needed to work towards preferred
futures. The conclusions that they arrived at then were presented by a spokesperson to the whole
group at the end of the session. In this section the views expressed on the role and modes of RD&E
are outlined.
The use of the scenarios generated broad discussion about the relationship between RD&E and
future industry and regional development. A diversity of proposed approaches were articulated.
Groups approached the task in various ways and the latitude for flexibility within the small groups
proved useful to encourage creative exploration and innovative thinking.
Most of the groups (3 of 5) opted for the “going for growth” scenario, arguing that the Government
and agricultural industries need to adopt aspirational “stretch” goals and then work on ways to
achieve them. They argued that the achievement of aspirational targets should be conceived of as a
cooperative venture across the public and private sectors. This is sometimes described as a
“networked” innovation system, rather than alternative more limited to “linear” innovation where
the “discovery” takes place in labs or research farms followed by transfer or diffusion of the
“innovation” to industry. This approach is as an evolving co- learning system, where participants
actively explore new possibilities, investigate options and devise strategies.
One group considered key RD&E opportunities relevant to irrigation development and explored how
they might manifest under each of the three scenarios. Another group chose to focus on the
“muddling through” scenario on the basis that it was the most likely future.
The dominant call for the adoption of more dynamic innovation models recognises that expertise,
information and capacity for innovation is distributed across networks, rather than housed solely or
mainly within organisations. By supporting learning networks within and across industries, RD&E can
be focused on providing support to achieving outcome-oriented targets, rather than being
specifically tied to particular types of activity.
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Advocacy for action-learning models and researcher-business cooperation was a common theme
throughout the workshop. RD&E systems need to be conceived of as facilitation of development
support that contributes towards a set of explicit targets.
A key message for TIA is that it is being invited to revise its modes of operation, and strengthen and
recommit to participatory models. This represents a significant opportunity for TIA to constructively
facilitate the emergence of improved models of investigation and learning that will lead to profitable
and sustainable systems of production, suited to the Tasmanian context.
3.3 Using scenarios for exploring the focus of the RD&E
As stated above, the presenters for the five groups provided a summary of their discussions. The
following is a summary of some of the key ideas expressed about the proposed focus of future
RD&E.
Future RD&E should aim to improve the viability and profitability of enterprises by focusing on:










The factor or aspects of business systems that deliver growth, productivity and efficiency
gains both on-farm and in processing;
Facilitating business growth, through investment and attracting more capital intensive
processing including through partnering between companies;
Understanding processing options and constraints including scale and diversity;
Exploring the potential for new business models including marketing clusters and
collaborative processing systems;
Better branding, marketing and exporting;
The development and use of key performance indicators (KPI’s) for benchmarking
enterprises;
Documenting best management practices and how these can be delivered;
The search for the elusive “sweet spot” of productivity that optimises return on capital and
other resources;
Improving labour skills and leadership; and
Enhancing agricultural production through improved public infrastructure.
Future RD&E should aim to improve irrigation and farming systems by focusing on:






Tasmania becoming internationally renowned as a centre of world expertise on moderate
scale irrigation scheme development and on pivot irrigation technologies and techniques;
Design principles for better water harvesting, application and drainage;
Precision farming techniques and technologies and how to use them to improve profitability
and/or sustainability of farming systems;
The potential and benefits of irrigation system accuracy including through variable rate
irrigation (VRI);
Identifying and modelling potential use options for currently under or “unallocated water”;
and
New crops and cropping systems.
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Future RD&E should aim to improve natural resources management by focusing on:






Coupling productivity and environmental best practice;
The sustainability of productive farming systems;
The assessment and protection of fragile and vulnerable soils and landscapes;
Understanding natural advantages and constraints, including soils;
Balanced development by identifying options for the “right” production systems in the
“right” places; and
Clearly articulating and measuring the factors that will determine the social licence to
operate future irrigation schemes.
Future RD&E needs to have the capability to:








Scan for “high impact wild cards” that will shape the future in unexpected ways;
Use systems-based and value-chain approaches, where the systems include the inputs,
production, processing and markets;
Adopt an innovation-platform approach focused on policy and regulatory facilitation;
Use cluster-based business models;
Ensure demand driven RD&E;
Understand what shapes regional identity;
Facilitate and enable partnerships including public-private partnerships (PPP); and
Support policy and business decision-making.
4 Articulating RD&E priorities and sorting to themes
4.1 Emerging themes and priorities
In the second session, after some general discussion recapping and reaffirming the workshop
purpose and approach, and the reasons why we had chosen to use foresighting methods, the
attendees were invited to write their ideas about the top RD&E priorities onto small sticky notes.
Attendees were given the option of writing these as a research question or as a suggestion. There
were no specific constraints on the scope of the suggestions, however the project framing,
backgrounding of the scenarios and discussions indicated that it was most likely that suggestions
would fall within a suite of broad categories such as:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
On-farm production systems;
Irrigation systems and technologies;
Processing and marketing;
Business models;
Regional economic development;
NRM; and
Extension, education and training.
Individuals were invited to paste their notes below seven signs indicating the broad categories
outlined above. The initial clustering and classifications were then reviewed. Each sticky note was
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reviewed by the project team and reorganised into more specific and appropriate themes and subthemes that were more clearly representative of the specific ideas expressed.
Approximately 140 ideas on sticky notes were clustered into 14 sub-themes. These 14 were then
grouped in to four major themes. (See appendix 5 for details of the ideas generated). The final set of
themes were:
1.
On farm systems (productivity, farming systems, precision tech, new crops)
•
On-Farm productivity
•
Farm economics and optimisation of options
•
Precision irrigation and irrigation systems
•
Water use efficiency
2.
Business models, investment, processing and exporting
•
Business models
•
Attracting capital investment
•
Branding and marketing Tasmanian products
3.
Natural resource management
•
Landscape health and ecosystem protection
•
Maintaining soil productivity
•
Drainage and waterlogging, salinity and other environmental risks
•
Interaction between on-farm and landscape scales
4.
RD&E arrangements
•
Arrangements and institutions for RD&E
•
Effective innovation
•
Education and adoption
4.2 Distilling the key questions for each theme
Taking into account the ideas generated by the workshop attendees, the consultants reflected on
the RD&E priorities emerging and distilled these into over-arching questions for each theme that
covered the kinds of issues and priorities within it. These were:
1.
On farm systems

What on-farm effectiveness, productivity and optimisation options are
possible?

How can we achieve water use efficiency?

What are the options for precisions agriculture?

How does precision irrigation fit in precision agriculture?
2.
Business models, investment, processing and exporting

How can innovative business models be developed?

What is needed? Is there a role for Government?

What is needed to attract capital investment in processing?
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

How can value chain analysis support more value-add?
How can Tassie products be better branded and marketed?
3.
Natural resource management

How can we protect landscape health?

What are the environmental risks? How should these be managed on-farm and
regionally?

What are the soil health, drainage and sustainable production issues on farm?

How do these interact regionally?
4.
RD&E arrangements

How do we build an effective innovation system?

How would it work? What would it look like?

How can Tassie have a competent system of training, skills development and
education for agriculture?

Is more needed to ensure skilled labour? What is the role of Government?

What is needed to deliver better and effective extension?

Are there better models and approaches to extension?
5 Developing ideas for each theme
In the final session, four small groups worked on an exercise to develop a short “policy brief”
outlining the scope, rationale and merits of RD&E focused on each major theme identified above:
1.
2.
3.
4.
On-farm systems;
Business models, investment, processing and exporting;
Natural resource management; and
RD&E arrangements.
The groups were formed by self-selection. Participants were invited to work on the theme they had
the greatest interest in. This approach resulted in fairly even distribution of numbers between
groups. A rapporteur and scribe were selected by the groups to consolidate the group’s “policy
brief” on butcher’s paper and to report back.
This exercise was a continuation of the “thought experiment” about RD&E shaping the future and
was not an attempt to formalise the design of a future program in detail. In part, it was asking
participants to go beyond the identification of priorities into thinking through how to fund and
implement the delivery of them.
It must be emphasised that any “priorities” sketched out here are neither government policy nor
projects that TIA has committed to deliver. They are simply part of a workshop exercise designed to
engage TIA and its stakeholders in a detailed conversation about what kinds of RD&E are needed.
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Summaries from group discussion are outlined below:
5.1.1 On-farm systems
Productivity
•
•
•
There is a need to benchmark productivity by enterprise and by region.
 What are the key profit drivers?
 These need to be measureable.
Role of R&D:
 Establish KPIs for best practice.
 What does best-practice look like? What influences its adoption?
Extension: utilise focus farms to demonstrate best practice and benchmarking.
Work with leading farmers to test, assimilate and extend best practice.
Water use efficiency (WUE)
•
•
•
WUE should take a whole systems view and consider procurement,
management (water storage & application) and commercial outcomes – not just
how water is applied through an irrigator. For example, considerable quantities
of water can be lost via evaporation from dams and drainage – need to better
understand how much of an impact this can be.
Use R&D to better understand on-farm and system scale WUE.
R&D into water flows and environmental flows in waterways – are old
methodologies still relevant? What is the margin for environmental flows?
Precision agriculture
•
•
2.
Precision agriculture: WUE and productivity drive the need for precision
agriculture. It is difficult to pre-empt what precision agriculture technology is
required without knowing more about productivity and WUE
requirements/needs.
The level of precision needs to be quantified approximately– 2% vs 20%
accuracy.
Business models, investment, processing and exporting
Two priority needs were identified:
1. Understanding how to attract and retain investment in agribusiness and downstream
processing; and
2. Investigation into the potential for different business models and structures
Priority 1: Possible RD&E – regular surveys of large-scale investors on what is needed to make
Tasmania more attractive to invest in, with the aim to improve policy and regulatory settings,
infrastructure and build awareness on prospects.
•
Rationale: We need capital to build sustained growth (including ideas and skills) and improve
the state and regional economies (everybody benefits).
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•
•
Elevator pitch: providing access to information will secure more investment into Tasmania.
Implementation:
i. Identify who investors are, who they talk to, what information do they need/want?
ii. Establish a business liaison office, which is the first go-to point for investor enquiry.
iii. Collate and provide information (e.g. regional profiles etc.), and redirect investors to key
influencers and information sources.
iv. Utilise and build on feedback obtained – what policy or infrastructure needs to be
modified?
v. Establish an ongoing business liaison function with a role in clarifying directions for R&D
and policy on innovation and investment?
Priority 2 - Can collaborative models, such as unit trusts, be developed within Tasmania to drive
growth across landscapes?
 Who benefits: Existing and new investors, landholders.
 Rationale: Offers industry options for growth capital.
 Elevator pitch: This research project will be more effective in connecting growth and
investors.
 Implementation:
o Identify existing and new investors and survey regularly.
o Provide a single focal point for business liaison to provide information (e.g.
regional profiles etc.), and direct investors to key influencers and information
sources.
o From feedback, what do we need to tweak?
o Use an innovation platform
o Clearly identify what Government and research agencies need to do?
•
For both projects need a dossier of high quality information needs to be collated and made
available – a role here for TIA.
5.1.2 Natural resource management
Public perception drives social licences to operate. In New Zealand, a large billboard showing
irrigated dairy farms and dead fish in graphic details asks: “Irrigation – have we got too much?”
This is a risk to irrigation futures in Tasmania. There is a risk that we will approach, and unwittingly
exceed, the socially acceptable limits of landscape conversation to irrigated agriculture. This could
make irrigation the next big environmental issue in Tasmania. More information is needed:
•
•
•
•
•
•
What attitudes currently prevail?
What are the facts about risks and impacts? Is current best practice enough?
Are there threshold effects due to expansion? What levels of change are acceptable?
What level of environmental management is required?
Research is needed on how to best minimise, monitor and manage impacts?
Biodiversity –what can be protected? What can be sacrificed? What levels of change are
acceptable?
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Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
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•
•
•
How can Tasmania avoid making the same mistakes of other irrigation areas?
Is irrigation the next hydro or forestry?
How can a social licence be maintained into the future?
Tasmania needs to use predicative capabilities to adaptively manage risks inherent in bringing water
to formally unirrigated landscapes. An approach is needed that can effectively monitor and evaluate
irrigation schemes in order to proactively steer the development of sustainable and highly
productive irrigation schemes and on-farm systems. Tasmania has the opportunity to proactively
manage the risks inherent in the large scale watering of challenging soils in a landscape with
challenging drainage management issues.
A proposed vision: to become a world leader in irrigation, drainage and effluent management. A
simple proposal: A study tour looking at what has already been done.
5.1.3 RD&E & E (Education)
Note, many of the issues in this discussion have previously been summarised in: Birch C, Bonney L,
Murray S (2014) Exciting future for graduates in the food industry – from agroecosystem to
consumer health. Chronica Horticulturae 54, 7-11.
Training and education




Pathways in training need to be considered (school – Tafe – uni).
Agriculture is not instantly associated as being a desirable career choice for young people –
need to change this perception and encourage people in to it.
Need to identify needs and expectations of clients.
Don’t just teach technical information – good decision making skills are important.
Research: Irrigation is a unifying theme.




Adopt systems thinking, systems approaches included as basis for research.
Use value chain approaches to identify productive points for intervention.
Think in terms of innovation networks not just value chains.
How do we develop an innovation network – local and global level – take what is relevant and
apply/adapt here.
Extension: What sorts of extension are needed? Explore alternative models of extension:





Old DPI/DA/1 on 1 model;
Danish model (like Birchip, Vic);
USA land grant systems;
Discussion groups and thematic participatory learning; and
Apply user driven model to research – bottom up approach where needs are identified – then
develop the research to answer clients’ needs/questions.
12
Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Foresighting Workshop Report
6 Conclusions
Foresighting proved to be a useful approach in consultative research planning because it drew
attention to possible alternative futures and required participants to explicitly articulate their views
about how possible RD&E interacts with the drivers and trajectories of change.
Despite a large number of separate ideas about priorities being generated, these were logically
ordered into 14 sub themes and 4 major themes.
The development of each of the themes, as reported in section 7, was able to identify a clear
rationale for focusing RD&E on critical issues and aspects. Furthermore, the group clearly identified a
wide range of disciplines and change processes as relevant to irrigation RD&E, including some critical
to achieving regional economic diversification.
While this kind of work has not historically been within TIA’s core set of capabilities, subsequent
steps in the project will be used to identify the viability of taking specific suggestions further and
various pathways towards implementation.
Some of the implementation pathways will include building partnerships and coalitions to entrain
capability – not all the ideas identified here will be within TIA’s mandate to pursue. Having a broad
suite of stakeholders openly engaged in identifying RD&E needs in the early stages of program
planning, is likely to contribute a useful foundation to the emergence of such partnerships now and
into the future.
6.1 Overarching questions
Based on further analysis by the consultants, the following four questions are offered as the basis for
the proposed RD&E strategy:
1.
2.
3.
4.
How do we achieve more productive, profitable and viable farms that are able to
optimise resources (land, water, capital, labour), and sustain production while
minimising risks like salinity, eutrophication and soil decline?
How can we attract investment in production, processing, advanced manufacturing,
exporting and marketing that sustains demand for Tasmanian primary products?
How can we protect catchment health and sustainably manage natural resources at the
farm and catchment scale?
What kinds of approaches and arrangements for RD&E (the innovation systems) are
required to achieve the above goals?
13
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6.2 Literature cited
Alexandra J. (2012), Australia’s future landscapes – caution, hope, inspiration and transformation
CSIRO Crops and Pastures 63, 215–231 http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/CP11189
Australian Science Technology and Engineering Council (1996) "Matching Science and Technology to
Future Needs 2010" Australian Science Technology and Engineering Council Canberra
Birch C, Bonney L, Murray S (2014) Exciting future for graduates in the food industry – from
agroecosystem to consumer health. Chronica Horticulturae 54, 7-11.
Cash, D. W., W. C. Clark, F. Alcock, N. M. Dickson, N. Eckley, D. H. Guston, J. Jäger, and R. B. Mitchell.
2003. Knowledge systems for sustainable development. Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences 100:8086-8091.
Jasanoff, S., M. Lynch, C. Miller, B. Wynne, F. Buttel, F. Charvolin, P. Edwards, A. Elzinga, P. Haas, and
C. Kwa. 1998. Science and decisionmaking.
Loveridge, D. 2010. Foresight: The art and science of anticipating the future. Routledge.
Sarewitz, D. 2010. Frontiers of illusion: Science, technology, and the politics of progress. Temple
University Press.
Sarewitz, D. and R. A. Pielke Jr. 2007. The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and
demand for science. Environmental Science & Policy 10:5-16.
14
Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Foresighting Workshop Report
7 Appendices attached
Appendix 1:
Workshop agenda
Appendix 2:
Background materials for workshop participants
Appendix 3:
Workshop presentation on megratrends, drivers and scenario recap
Appendix 4:
Scenarios
Appendix 5:
RD&E priorities identified
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Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
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7.1 Appendix 1: Workshop Agenda
Day 1: Wednesday 2 April 2014
Session 1.1 – Bus trip
10.25
Bus depart TIA reception, Prospect
10.30-11.20
Bus ride from Prospect to Cressy:
 Welcome, brief introduction to project, outline of day, introduce project
team

Complete Day 1 survey

Introductions: everyone has 1 minute to introduce themselves and outline
what their top opportunity / limitation for irrigated ag is

4-5
Quick intro to Cressy-Longford irrigation scheme and what irrigation has
done for this area
Visit George Rigney, dairy farmer at Cressy
 History of how irrigation has changed their business
 Key learnings
Lunch, Ross
Visit Sam Riggall, mixed enterprise farming system and cherry grower at Ross
 How has irrigation changed the business?
 Production, agri-tourism, perennial fruit etc.
 Key learnings
Bus ride from Ross to Tunbridge, drive along Tunbridge Tier Rd
 General discussion about physical limitations of irrigation expansion
o NRM issues – soil constraints, landscape issues
o Climate
o Role of precision ag
o Monitoring
 Other limitations
o Markets/cropping rotations/enterprise options
o Skilled & entrepreneurial people
o Governance
Bus ride from Tunbridge to Prospect
5pm
Drop off at TIA reception, Prospect
11.30-12.30
1.30-2
2.10-3.10
3.10-3.30
3.30-4
Session 1.2 – Dinner
6.30pm
Drinks in bar area
7.00
Seated for dinner
Welcome, TIA’s response to emerging RD&E needs in Tasmania.
Professor Holger Meinke, Director, TIA
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Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Foresighting Workshop Report
TFGA’s vision for irrigated industry
- Jan Davis, CEO, TFGA
Irrigation development, opportunities for RD&E.
- Richard Gardner, producer at Tunbridge
Main course served, open discussion
Day 2: Thursday 3 April 2014
Session 2.1 – Setting the scene – introductions - scanning the issues
AIM to develop a richer picture of the critical issues and the scenarios.
9-9.05
Introductions, recap on project objectives, welcome and rules of engagement–
Statements on project and workshop objectives to be distilled from brief
9.10-9.15
Recap on tour and issues identified - 4 or 5 informants prompted to speak of
critical issues identified on tour
9.15- 9.25
Introduction exercise - Individuals to advocate for their top two priorities for
RD&E based on their responses in the day 1 questionnaire. They will work in pairs
to convince partner of their merits and why they should be funded in period of
declining public investment
Session 2.2 – Using the scenarios – RD&E in shaping preferred futures
9.25-9.40
Introduction to the three scenarios and macro trends and drivers – PowerPoints
(note the scenarios were distributed to all participants as part of the information
pack prior to the workshop)
9.40 to 10.40
Small group exercise to develop richer pictures of the scenarios and implications
for Tasmanian R&D&E
This session aims to brainstorm and scope out plausible futures and nature of
change drivers and innovations. It provides an opportunity for participants to
modify and further develop the scenarios. Small groups will be invited to use
optimistic and pessimistic scenarios to gain insight into the types of risk and
opportunities and the possible trajectories of change. Use muddling through
scenario to look for ideas about incrementally reforming the current system
towards a superior innovation system. At the feedback they will be asked to
emphasise outliers.
The aim of this session is to get groups to identify how RD&E (innovation
systems) will provide capacity to direct Tasmania towards preferred futures. Each
group was asked to provide short feedback and to produce a short summary,
therefore a presenter and scribe is required. A butcher’s paper record of each
small group session will be prepared and collected. Small group notes will also be
collected for future reference.
10.30 –11 Morning tea
Session 2.3: What RD&E is needed?
The aim of this session is to get issues and priorities identified, ready for sorting and further
prioritising in session 3.
17
Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Foresighting Workshop Report
11-11.20
11.20 - 12.20
Brief report back on scenarios especially any new major issues or ideas about
how a better innovation system would lead to more profitable and sustainable
farms, regional development and better resource management
Small groups to work on setting R&D priorities – In this session the ideas
generated individually and written in response to day 1 questionnaire will be
revealed and then discussed collectively. Individuals may wish to modify their
priorities based on the discussion or may wish to maintain them. Each
respondent will be asked to write their priorities on sticky notes (one per note).
A cluster analysis of priorities - Clustering of sticky notes into 7 or 8 themes.
12.20 12.30
12.30-1.00 Lunch
12.30 -1.00
Lunch – over lunch an analysis of the clustered notes will be undertaken by the
project team who will synthesise/summarise the priorities and critical issues in
each of the themes.
The output from this session will be a record of stated priorities on the sticky
notes plus their grouping into themes.
Session 2.4: Afternoon sessions - What RD&E questions are top priority?
Small groups worked on further developing the top priorities in each of the
1.15-1.50
themes. Each theme developed into short statement on why a program is
needed including:
- rationale,
- who should pay,
- who will benefit and
- any ideas on how a program/project should be implemented
Report back
1.50-2.30
Completion of exit survey
Session 2.5: Wrap up and workshop conclusions
Reminder re completion of exit survey
Final discussions, wrap up and workshop close
2.30-3
18
Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Foresighting Workshop Report
7.2 Appendix 2: Background materials for workshop participants
This presentation was supplied with the initial invite to participate in the workshop.
19
You are invited to participate in a
Foresighting Workshop
to look ahead at possible future scenarios facing Tasmanian agriculture
and identify research, development & extension priorities for TIA
to support productive and sustainable agricultural industries
Wednesday 2nd & Thursday 3rd April 2014
Launceston
Details attached in following pages. For further information and to rsvp, please contact
Hugh Ludford on 0400 039 387 or [email protected]
This workshop is being delivered by Macquarie Franklin and Alexandra & Associates as part of a project funded by the Tasmanian Government to develop an
irrigation RD&E program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture.
Project background
• As we know, irrigation is changing Tasmanian agriculture
• There is potential to increase profitability, sustainability and
global competitiveness of Tasmania’s agricultural industries
• What is the role of RD&E?
– catalysing innovation and efficiency
– ensuring sustainability of industries & businesses
– optimising the social and economic benefits of irrigation
– minimising social and environmental costs
• TIA received seed funding from the Tasmanian Government
to develop a strategic program for irrigation RD&E
 Macquarie Franklin and Alexandra & Associates are facilitating this process
Project overview
• Project objectives
– identify and address stakeholder irrigation RD&E needs (now &
future)
– consolidate existing activities and resources
– attract additional investment
• Irrigation program
–
–
–
–
–
targeted to Tasmanian industry needs
cross-commodity collaboration
national relevance
build cross-sectoral collaboration and organisational linkages
to be developed by June 2014
Snapshot of Tasmania’s
irrigated agricultural industry
•
Between 2009-10 and 2011-12, on average 57% of Tasmania’s gross value of agricultural production
was produced by irrigating 5.5% of the land area under crop or pasture (ABS 4610, 4618).
•
This is much higher than the national average (29%), or the average across the Murray-Darling Basin
(33%) (Figure 1).
•
Of the 192 giga litres of irrigation water applied in Tasmania during 2011-12, half of it was used on
pastures and a third was used for irrigation of vegetables and other broadacre crops (Figure 2).
Figure 1: Percentage of gross value of agricultural
production produced using irrigation (ABS 4610)
Figure 2: Use of irrigation water, Tasmania, 2011-12 (ABS 4610).
%
Grapes
1% Other
7%
Hay
Fruit 3%
Average (2009-10 to 2011-12)
60
Australian average
4%
Cereals for
grain and seed
5%
MDB average
50
40
Pasture for
livestock
grazing
48%
Other
broadacre crops
13%
30
20
10
Vegetables
19%
0
Tas.
Qld
Vic.
NSW
SA
ACT
NT
WA
Purpose of workshop
•
To identify RD&E needs to support sustainable (financially,
environmentally & socially) irrigated agricultural industries in Tasmania
•
Consideration of RD&E needs under different future scenarios
– 1) booming industry development
– 2) business as usual / maintaining status quo
– 3) less favourable conditions for industry
•
How and what RD&E can help shape preferred futures for Tasmania?
•
Balancing priorities:
 short term needs (next 5 years)
 longer term needs (10-20 years time)
 Tasmanian needs
 national relevance
Workshop logistics
When: Wednesday 2nd & Thursday 3rd April 2014
Where: Launceston
What:
Wednesday 2nd April: Irrigation bus tour
10am departure from Hotel Charles, Launceston
10.15 departure from TIA reception, Mount Pleasant Laboratories
Tour of historical, recent and future irrigation developments in Tasmania’s
north and midlands
5pm return to Launceston
6.30pm Dinner at Hotel Charles
Thursday 3rd April: Irrigation futures foresighting workshop
9am-3pm, Hotel Charles, Launceston
Workshop logistics
•
All meals included for both days of the workshop
•
Accommodation and breakfast, if required, is at own expense
 Rooms at Hotel Charles are on hold until 25 March at special rate of $145/night
(mention “TIA WS” when booking)
 Project will not book or pay for any participant accommodation
•
Bus departure points - Wednesday 2nd April
10am Hotel Charles driveway
10.15am TIA reception, Mount Pleasant Laboratories
287 Charles Street, Launceston
165 Westbury Road, Prospect
Ph: 1300 703 284
Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Foresighting Workshop Report
7.3 Appendix 3: Workshop presentation on megratrends, drivers and
scenario recap
This presentation was provided to confirmed participants as background reading prior to the
workshop.
27
Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for TIA
Foresighting Workshop
to look ahead at possible future scenarios facing Tasmanian agriculture
and identify research, development & extension priorities for TIA
to support productive and sustainable agricultural industries
Wednesday 2nd & Thursday 3rd April 2014
Launceston
This workshop is being delivered by Macquarie Franklin and Alexandra & Associates as part of a project funded by the Tasmanian
Government to develop an irrigation RD&E program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture.
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Workshop Program
Day 1: Wednesday 2nd April 2014: Bus tour
Day 1 Notes:
Please arrive 10 minutes before your bus departure time.
Buses will leave on time and will not
wait for latecomers.
10.00 am
10.15 am
Bus departs Hotel Charles Driveway, Launceston
Bus departs TIA reception car park, Mount Pleasant
Travel out through Cressy, Ross and Tunbridge looking at examples of
opportunities and limitations associated with irrigation development.
5.00 pm
5.15 pm
Return to TIA
Return to Hotel Charles
6.30 - 9pm Dinner at Esca Restaurant, Hotel Charles
Please bring warm clothes, a rain coat
and boots with you.
Lunch, snacks & drinks will be provided.
Dinner Wed night will be provided,
however drinks are at your own
expense.
Day 2 Notes:
Day 2: Thursday 3rd April 2014: Foresighting workshop
Frankland meeting room, ground floor, Hotel Charles
8.45 am Tea and coffee available on arrival
9 am Start
3 pm Wrap up
Scenario summaries in following pages.
Full scenarios will be provided in hard
copy on Day 1 in the workshop booklet.
It is recommended you are familiar with
the scenarios prior to the start of Day 2.
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Bus departure points
Wednesday 2nd April
10 am Hotel Charles driveway
10.15 am TIA reception, Mount Pleasant
287 Charles Street, Launceston
165 Westbury Road, Prospect
Ph: 1300 703 284
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Purpose of workshop
•
To identify RD&E needs to support sustainable (financially, environmentally & socially)
irrigated agricultural industries in Tasmania
•
Consideration of RD&E needs under different future scenarios
–
1) booming industry development
–
2) business as usual / maintaining status quo
–
3) less favourable conditions for industry
•
How and what RD&E can help shape preferred futures for Tasmania?
•
Balancing priorities:
 short term needs (next 5 years)
 longer term needs (10-20 years time)
 Tasmanian needs
 national relevance
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
To set the scene…
Macro trends and drivers for Tasmania’s future
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Global population growth
Population growth 8 billion by 2030?
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Urbanisation
An global empire of connected cities – 60% of the world’s 2050 cities
not yet built (UN ICLEI)
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Increasing demand for protein
Source: The State Of World Fisheries
And Aquaculture 2012
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Rise of affluent middle class in Asia
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Global supply & demand
for wine & wood fibre
Source: NewForests Timberland Investment Outlook 2013-17
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
A hotter & drier climate
Global average temperature
Satellite estimate of soil moisture
Australian average temperature
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Carbon policy
Australia’s emission profile by sector and the breakdown of emissions in the agricultural sector by activity
Source Data: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2011 and CIE (2010), ABARES (2010), DCCEE analysis.
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Natural resources competition & conflict
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Impacts of science & technology
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Aging and decline of the baby boomers
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Specialisation, education and
sophistication
Source:
www.dfat.gov.au/trade/export_review
/key_issues.html
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Food safety
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Regions in competition for mobile global
capital, skilled people and reputations
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
The Scenarios
The foresighting workshop will use scenarios to stimulate discussion about :
•
What RD&E will deliver a more prosperous and sustainable future for Tasmania?
•
What will make Tasmanian irrigated agriculture productive, viable, profitable and
sustainable?
Remember, scenarios are stories about the future, not predictions!
The three scenarios are:
1. Tasmania unlimited – go for growth
2. Muddling through – business as usual
3. Decline and stagnation
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Characteristics of Scenario 1:
Tasmania unlimited - go for growth
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Irrigation expansion phase 5 - $500 million for “piping the state”
Tasmania has “best” environmental protection and environmental flows
Good industry infrastructure – training, planning, coordination, R&D
Stable water investment policy
Climate change refugees - industries relocate from MDB and California, enterprises flee persistent droughts and uncertain policy
Capital and expertise “migrates” south to Tasmania
Prices boom - global food insecurity
Sustained export growth
Processors attracted to reliable supplies
High tech, bio energy and bio-manufacturing, and advanced technology development
Exports of high value, quality assured products – pharmaceuticals, herbs, food and fibre
Buoyant demand for dairy and live beef cattle export to China
Big demand for fodder and feed grains
“Tasmanian Grown” globally recognised. “Tasmanian Quality Naturally” campaign in Beijing, Hong Kong, Tokyo... “pollution free food”
Direct action to sequester carbon in the landscapes
Water politics are cool
Farmers leaders in International Water Stewardship
Stringent quarantine for feral fish and aquatic weeds
Tasmania has internationally recognised forward looking R&D programs - collaborations across university engineering, geography,
agriculture, business and economics etc. , public/private partnerships, innovation networks
Water R&D levies on all water used for growers’ innovation fund
Tasmania drives development of world competitive irrigation industries
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Characteristics of Scenario 2:
Muddling through – business as usual
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Demand for irrigated production waxes and wanes, aligned to commodity boom and bust cycles
Optimism re economic diversification not justified
Constraints include growing public opposition, confusing policy, regulatory incoherence, poor coordination, and non-competitive
scale
Opposition to new irrigation grows. “no dams” refrain returns to noisy Hobart protests
Irrigation investment goes to Northern Australia
Commonwealth industry policy hardens: no business free hand-outs
Carbon markets are limited – just niche reforestation schemes
Low commodity prices and high labour costs
Food processors shut down Australian operations - growers have stranded assets and declining equity
Industry relocates to NZ and South America due to lower costs and tax incentives
R&D focused on “survival crops”
“Grown in Tasmania” brand partially successful - boutique art, food and wine tourism thrives
Water politics are warm
Protests target planned dams
Feral fish & aquatic weeds are major problems
RD&E funding is fragmented - RDCs critical
High reliance on government assistance
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Characteristics of Scenario 3:
Decline and stagnation
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Tasmanian irrigation in a graceful, gradual decline
Infrastructure treated as “sunk capital” to get a dividend out of whenever possible
Demand waxes and wanes
Broad-acre grain and animal industries dominate due to low labour costs
Capital flight from agriculture, processing and manufacturing continues
Confidence eroded to bed rock
Opposition to irrigation misplaced – no new dams planned
Buyer boycotts on Tassie exports
Tasmania promoted as a large quaint “national and heritage park”
Economy based largely on tourism
Assistance to relocate to mining regions in Western Australia
Major food processors shut down their Australian operations, relocate to Asian and South American countries
Opium poppy industry moves to Victoria and overseas
Growers left with stranded assets
Growing livestock feed and grains barely covers costs
“Grown in Tasmania” brand not successful
Water politics are dull
Irrigation RD&E programs struggle to survive, no longer relevant
RD&E arrangements fragmented with limited funding
Alexandra &
Associates Pty Ltd
Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Foresighting Workshop Report
7.4 Appendix 4: Scenarios for exploring RD&E priorities
Introduction
Using scenarios for planning
What research, development and extension (RD&E) will deliver a more prosperous and sustainable
future for Tasmania?
In this project we are trying to answer this question. We are consulting on RD&E priorities for
irrigated agriculture that will help to deliver a more prosperous and sustainable future for Tasmania.
We are using a method known as foresighting, where scenarios are used to assist in the planning
process. The scenarios are focused on irrigation, water resources and related industries.
By using these scenarios, we are aiming to focus stakeholder thinking and workshop discussion on
the nature of innovation systems and the way RD&E addresses risks and opportunities for irrigation
and related industry development.
A specific objective of this foresighting process is to bring out ideas on the roles of innovation
systems and the priorities for RD&E.
The scenarios are intended to be credible, yet stimulate discussion and generate debate beyond a
continuation of business as usual. The scenarios are stories, but not fantasies about the future. They
are bounded by factors like climate change projections and the global supply and demand of
commodities. The scenarios are not predictions, but stories about the “nature of the future” and
will be used to focus discussion about pathways to preferred futures, with a particular emphasise on
how RD&E can contribute to achieving these.
The scenarios are intended to start discussions at the workshop. We invite participants to use their
imaginations and to further debate ways to actively shape preferred futures.
The foresighting workshops and related consultation will be used to gather broad ranging ideas
about Tasmania’s irrigation futures and to identify R&D directions and priorities.
Tasmanian irrigation futures – 3 scenarios for exploring RD&E priorities
The following three scenarios are for Tasmania in the years 2025 to 2030 – only 11 to 16 years from
now. They focus on irrigated agriculture and are being used to explore RD&E roles in “creating”
preferred futures.
We are asking you: what innovations will make Tasmanian irrigated agriculture productive, viable,
profitable and sustainable?
50
Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Foresighting Workshop Report
The three scenarios are:
1. Tasmania unlimited – go for growth
2. Muddling through – business as usual
3. Decline and stagnation.
Mega trends and Drivers
In each scenario we have used a combination of the following drivers:
1. Changing global demands for food and fibre
2. Water resources policy and infrastructure
3. Licence to operate - community legitimacy (or illegitimacy) re social and
environmental conflicts – regional reputational risks (eg forest conflict)
4. Regional economic diversification strategies
5. Climate change and flow on impacts including climate and carbon policies
6. Climatic and natural resource advantages
7. Trends in market demands
8. Tasmanian and Australian competiveness and comparative advantage - our capacity
to meet global markets –etc
9. Branding and marketing
Scenario 1: Tasmania unlimited - go for growth
Commonwealth offers $500 million for a “piping the state” project, with a network of irrigation
mains capable to delivering abundant water to nearly all agricultural regions. Tasmania wins
competitive grants over Queensland and the Northern Territory for water resource developments.
Both Tasmanian and Commonwealth have active policies to support relocation and expansion of
agriculture to Tasmania through incentives and facilitation.
Tasmania’s competitive advantage over other states is due to stringent adherence to COAG water
reform principles, including serious commitment to robust institutional arrangements,
environmental protection and environmental flows, and the advantages of complementary social
and industry infrastructure – training, planning, coordination of marketing and RD&E.
Sustained export growth in a range of industries resulted from the State’s 2015 economic
diversification strategy, which supports industry coordination, commercialisation of RD&E and the
emergence of high value-add, industry clusters. These drove demand for expanding and increasing
irrigated production.
The relatively high cost of new water did not impede a swarm of new industries relocating in
Tasmania. The networks of established growers, mild climate and the security of the water (both in
terms of water rights and the climate) attracted capital-intensive industries – such as dairy and food
processors, wine and freshwater aquaculture industries. Water markets are active and water policy
stable, attracting long term, capital-intensive industries from interstate and overseas.
51
Development of an Irrigation RD&E Program for the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Foresighting Workshop Report
Water using enterprises fled established irrigation regions including the MDB and California due to
persistent droughts and uncertain policy – climate change was reluctantly implicated in various
national assessments of water and food security. Capital and expertise “migrated” south to Chile, NZ
and Australia (including Tasmania).
Food and fibre prices boom, partly due to food insecurity globally, as do Tasmanian land values,
particularly in those locations suited to intensive and reliable production. Processors are attracted to
reliable raw material supplies, including for pharmaceuticals and advanced bio-based industries.
Advanced industrial systems that rely on a range of irrigated inputs – eco-industrial systems
including bio-energy - are growth business.
Governments globally embrace climate mitigation policy, and a global market for agricultural offsets
stimulates investment in low emissions farming and strategies for sequestering carbon in the
landscapes. This provides a strong financial incentive to consolidate agriculture in intensive, high
production areas, and to move away from farming marginal lands, where reafforestation and carbon
farming are tending to dominate.
The Australian Government actively and directly invest in sustainable and multi-functional
agricultural/rural landscapes aligning its direct action policies to long standing agricultural subsidies
in Europe and North America. This provides further incentives to consolidate agriculture in the
highest productivity areas.
Tasmania’s industry policies attract high tech industries, including bio-energy and biomanufacturing, sensor technology and advanced technology development. The University of
Tasmania(UTAS) and TIA develop an international reputation for advanced R&D on temperate
climate agriculture and resource management, agriculture for international development and
agricultural entrepreneurship and business systems.
Buoyant demand for dairy products and live beef cattle export to China drives demand for fodder
and feed grains. Other export markets grow by meeting global demand for high value, quality
assured products – pharmaceuticals, herbs, teas, spices, food and fibre.
“Tasmanian Grown” becames a globally recognised brand. Direct relationships with overseas buyers
ensure strong “chain of custody” guarantees. Networks of merchants add to the value-chains and
ensure competition for “branded products”. Marketing is used to add to the feel good “mystique”
of the “Tasmanian Quality Naturally” brand. In Beijing, Hong Kong and Tokyo, Cape Grim air quality
data is used as evidence of Tasmania’s pollution free atmosphere with marketing images of an
isolated island swept clean by the “roaring forties”.
The perennial horticulture, vegetables, pharmaceutical and wine industries expand. Affluent
urbanites throughout Asia identify the “Grown in Tasmania” brand with nature, purity and quality.
Food and wine and nature tourism complements exports and creates employment rich service
industries. Many SME provide specialist logistics, marketing and coordination support adding value
to on farm production. Established industries have strong systems for BMP adoption and continuous
improvement. New processing industries with world-class facilities are attracted, and infrastructure
is provided to make them viable.
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Water politics are cool. The historic State Water Accord limits further public outrage and disruptive
protests at the damming and modifications of rivers. The strong commitment to environmental
flows and riverine ecosystem protection ensures that the Water Accord lasts. Many growers are
champions of riverine restoration and are leaders in implementing the International Water
Stewardship Standards.
Further irrigation developments increase fears about environmental impacts, but stringent policies
on freshwater conservation protect reference reaches and wild rivers, with guaranteed flows to
estuaries and wetlands. Stringent quarantine and early detection limits impacts of feral fish and
aquatic weeds.
UTAS and TIA have an internationally recognised R&D programs spanning agricultural systems,
integrated water resource planning and regional economic development. These support
collaboration across many faculties and disciplines including engineering, geography, agriculture,
business and economics and the natural and computing sciences. TIA’s work on linking agricultural
and secondary industry value chains and equipping growers to adopt optimal plant water use gains
international attention.
RD&E programs are focused on:
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Delivering productivity and efficiency in industry – optimising energy, water and labour;
Entrepreneurship, advanced value chain systems, logistics and innovative business models;
Strategies for industry development and global competitive advantage draws together skills
from management and marketing;
New agricultural industries including new and novel crop development – including in areas
of pharmaceuticals and new bio-actives;
Advanced dairy manufacturing supports the expansion of dairy into global markets, and
expansion of intensive livestock industries on the back of this;
o NOTE - Feed grain demand increases greatly, and grains begin to push poppies out
of their dominant position in irrigated grain rotations.
Education and training to deliver a highly skilled work forces and builds professional
capacity across the entire value chain;
Food science and technology and the cultural geography of food systems;
Applied climate adaptation and climate science, including medium term forecasting;
Carbon sequestration methods, carbon accounting and climate-carbon policy; and
Large scale environmental monitoring and modelling and advanced spatial modelling.
Water R&D is funded through the “levy bank” based on a landmark agreement on raising R&D levies
on all water used in Tasmania. An independently governed growers’ innovation fund, is matched by
State and Commonwealth funds. This builds a funding base to support R&D that both drives best
practice in water resource planning and the development of world competitive irrigation industries.
Tasmania develops a range of competitive advantages in medium scale processing, marketing,
logistics, coordination and integrated production.
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Scenario 2: Muddling through
This scenario is based on “business as usual”. After a flurry of new irrigation schemes developed in
the first decade of the 21st century, irrigation grew moderately. Demand for irrigated production
waxed and waned, aligned to commodity boom and bust cycles.
Tasmania’s natural advantages – soils, water and climate – have resulted in moderate growth of
irrigation industries. The optimism about economic diversification was not justified. Constraints
limiting growth have included growing public opposition, confusing policy settings, lack of regulatory
coherence, poor coordination, immature logistics and non-competitive scale.
Several new water resource developments were constrained by complex regulatory processes and
plagued by costs over runs. After the Tasmanian Forests Intergovernmental Agreement, the “forest
protest movement” turned its attention to new water infrastructure. Community opposition to new
irrigation grew steadily. The “no dams” refrain returned noisily to Hobart protests. The protest
movement was adept at using the Internet, to give a “smelly” reputation to irrigation. This taints
many products. European buyers tend to avoid branded Tasmanian products because of
reputational risks, although there is some demand for high quality but unbranded products.
Commonwealth irrigation development funds are delivered to the Northern Australia food bowl
projects. New projects in Tasmania are tied up in slow and complex regulatory approvals, due to
community opposition and some scandals about shoddy practices in environmental protection and
environmental flows planning.
After the public debate about SPC’s and Qantas’s call for subsidies, the Commonwealth Government
industry policies hardened: no business receives direct hand outs. After the tough 2014 budget, the
Commonwealth became increasingly reluctant to fund Tasmania’s economic diversification
strategies. Previous funding had failed to result in significant economic and employment growth.
Without a carbon price, carbon markets are limited to the voluntary market, benefitting only niche
reforestation schemes.
The Australian Government remains an avid free-trade advocate despite limited progress in
influencing international trade policy. Low commodity prices coupled with relatively high labour
costs, force continued extensification of Australian agriculture.
Australia’s high cost of labour, water and transport became major impediments to attracting
investment from increasingly globalised industries. Instead, industry relocated to NZ and South
America. Lower costs and generous tax incentives make theses much more attractive locations for
global-scale industries.
Several major food processors shut down their Australian operations leaving those contract growers
who did not go broke, with stranded assets and declining property values.
Industry and government R&D focuses on the search for “survival crops” and alternatives markets
after the hard line “free market” Australian Government rejected calls for industry adjustment
funding.
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Big investment in recycled coal seam gas water and new dams in northern Australia provided
alternative water sources for new irrigation based investments. In the decades after the millennium
drought, a long run of good water years took the MDB reforms off the political agenda and provided
bumper years to water entitlement holders.
Efforts to establish a “Grown in Tasmania” brand were partially successful, particularly on the
mainland. Many cashed up suburbanites buy Tassie wine and cheese when entertaining. Boutique
businesses based on art, food and wine tourism thrive. Tassie gains the image as a quaint, historic
“must see” location for at least one holiday in the average middle-class Australian’s life.
Water politics are warm. Well-organised protests target the few proposals to dam and further
modify rivers. Growers’ efforts to introduce voluntary standards are fragmented with several
competing standards confusing buyers.
Opponents cite the environmental impacts of previous hydro and irrigation developments as
evidence of why new developments must be stopped. Feral fish and aquatic weeds cause major
problems.
Industry is constantly reacting - responding to changing demands and cost pressures. Growers want
advice on improved agricultural systems and water use optimisation, but information sources are
fragmented.
Irrigation RD&E programs are focused on:
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Agricultural science projects, including plant breeding and genetics;
Strategies to increase production and enterprise scale;
Expansion of existing industries into new districts;
Reducing risks for investors in cropping systems;
The economics of reducing farm production costs;
Farm production models, rotation advice and DSS;
Efficiency of water use within major water using industries;
Regional strategies for keeping existing industries going;
Finding alternative crops for growers who previously supplied exporters; and
Social impacts of structural adjustment out of agriculture (and the dynamics of declining
rural communities, etc).
Water and irrigation RD&E funding arrangements are fragmented, with funding from the RDCs
critical for keeping a range of RD&E programs going. Most is focused on farm production systems
with a widely held view that the State and Commonwealth should fund water resource planning and
regional economic development strategies. Transaction costs are high and while there are many
small R&D projects, it is often hard to find out about who is doing what.
In this scenario there is essentially no change to a passive industry approach to value chains and
competitiveness, and a high reliance on government assistance.
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Scenario 3: Decline and stagnation
After approximately 20 years of relatively rapid expansion, the Tasmanian irrigation industry is in a
graceful, gradual decline. Existing infrastructure, both private and public is used, but it is often
treated as a “sunk cost” to wring a dividend out of whenever possible.
Demand for irrigation production waxes and wanes, but most is targeted to supplementing
production in the broad-acre grain and animal industries due to their relatively low risk, and the
lower labour costs involved compared with intensive industries.
Tasmania’s many natural advantages – soils, water and climate – were not enough to sustain growth
- other constraints to economic diversification prevailed. Constraints include confusing and unstable
policy settings, regulatory incoherence, expensive logistics and the non-competitive scale of
Tasmanian industries. Capital flight from Australian agriculture, processing and manufacturing
continued to erode confidence.
Community opposition to irrigation hardened, with the “forest protest movement” turning its
attention to water infrastructure. The protest movement called for buyer boycotts on Tassie exports.
They used the internet to perfection and smeared a “smelly” reputation across many Tasmanian
Branded products.
The Commonwealth no longer funds Tasmania’s proposals for infrastructure and economic
diversification after previous attempts failed to result in any significant economic and employment
growth.
Policy at both State and National levels begins to view Tasmania as a large quaint “national and
heritage park”. The economy is based on largely on tourism. Government assistance is provided to
retrain and relocate people to other areas of Australia, particularly the booming northern and
western mining provinces.
The decades-long mining boom has resulted in high cost for labour and transport. These are the
major impediments to retaining processing industries exposed to global markets. Like manufacturing
before them they have relocated to Asian and South American countries where lower costs and
generous incentives make them attractive locations for labour intensive industries.
The opium poppy industry gradually moved to Victoria and then consolidated its operations there.
Most major food processors shut down their Australian operations leaving contract growers with
stranded assets.
Searches for “survival alternatives” for growers have mostly defaulted to livestock feed and grains,
but there are concerns that these barely cover the operational costs.
Efforts to establish a “Grown in Tasmania” brand were not successful – supermarkets on the
mainland are flooded with canned fruits and juices from Chile and South Africa, tomatoes and
sauces from Italy, frozen veggies from NZ and cheeses and milk products from all over the world.
This is cleverly marketed as the gourmet benefits of globalisation.
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Water politics are dull. There are few proposals to dam and further modify rivers. Growers have
given up on efforts to introduce voluntary standards due to fragmentation and the limited
advantage from doing more paper work.
Irrigation RD&E programs are struggling to survive as they not seen as relevant to current economic
conditions
Agricultural RD&E funding arrangements are fragmented with funding from the RDCs critical to
keeping a few extension programs going. Transaction costs are high and while there are many small
R&D projects, it is often hard to find out about who is doing what.
R&D programs are focused on:
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Reducing the cost intensity of farms;
Farm scale and consolidation strategies;
Vulnerability assessment, structural adjustment and options ensuring equitable access
to social welfare funding;
Land systems assessment to determine the NRM and carbon farming benefits of
targeted land retirement; and
Benefits of regression to lower intensity farming.
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7.5 Appendix 5: Ideas generated for future RD&E priorities
Summary of key themes and ideas from Session 2.3: What RD&E is needed?
Stakeholders generated approximately 140 separate ideas about future RD&E priorities. These were
sorted into 4 main themes or categories, with 14 separate sub-themes. For each theme a set of
distilled questions were used to try to sum up the main R&D questions posed. These distilled
questions are in italics below. Individual priorities have been rationalised and summarised into the
dominant topics proposed by stakeholders, with a minimum of editing, mostly for clarity.
7.5.1
On-farm systems
Distilled questions
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What on-farm effectiveness, productivity and optimisation options are possible?
How can we achieve water use efficiency?
What options for precisions agriculture? How does precision irrigation fit in precision
agriculture?
Water use efficiency (WUE)
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Develop optimisation strategies and DSS based on integrated understanding on the
dynamics between: application of water, infiltration, soil organic matter levels, energy use,
capital expenditure, labour, waterlogging and profitability
Maximise WUE for net profit: use ML/Ha per crop type and $per ML benchmark best
practice for yield target projects e.g. wheat 10t/ha, spuds xt/ha, pasture x kg DM/ha
Develop autumn irrigation strategies for dairy in the midlands: focus on grass production
and soil sustainability
Precision technology
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Use precision farming techniques to lower water, energy and fertiliser use
Work with “demonstration” properties – use real examples of precision agriculture
techniques to promote adoption and benefits
Identify soils for irrigation development eg EM 38 mapping to manage soil types and
drainage
Water application techniques: systems, rate, soil type and crop system eg VRI in managing
variable soil in vegetable crops
Vigour mapping, variable irrigation, variable nutrition, automated systems, particularly for
perennial horticulture
Analysis of VRI systems: cost/benefit, complexity, practicality and durability etc
Evaluate control systems and emerging sensor technologies for VRI – is it a costly
distraction? Can apps & smart phones replace common sense?
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On-farm enterprise economics
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Information that enables decisions about adopting robust production systems: i.e.
economic analysis of different crop options and cropping systems
Quantify resource availability to ensure we avoid over-capitalising on water infrastructure
(on and off farm) and make irrigation too expensive
Enterprise mix to optimise resource potential
Soil/Plant/Water optimisation: How to reduce input costs? i.e. technologies and practices for
energy and water use efficiencies etc.
What is the $ difference between an optimised irrigation farm and just any irrigation farm?
What is enterprise best practice? How to mitigate risk? How to maximise outcomes?
Assess the profitability of irrigated wheat for dairy feed grain
New crop agronomy
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7.5.2
Scope and evaluate possible future crops
New crops – production systems and economics
Business models
Distilled questions
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How can innovative business models be developed?
What is needed? Is there a role for Government?
What is needed to attract capital investment?
How can value chain analysis support more value-add?
How can Tassie products be better branded and marketed?
Value chain
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How to capture more value from crops/products?
How do we maximise the captured value of products? What can Value Chain Analyses
contribute?
Systems research on value chain opportunities: use engagement with supply chains to target
research to deliver greatest tangible outcomes
What whole-of-chain interventions have greatest ability to value add and produce practice
change?
Capital investment
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What ways can Government and industry attract investment capital to facilitate growth?
How have other irrigation growth areas attracted outside capital (e.g. equity partnerships).
Develop a program to survey potential investors requirements and motivations
Provide resources, education & decision making tools for the investors to support informed
decisions
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Branding & marketing
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How do we improve national and international reputations?
How do we identify new market opportunities?
How do we maintain quality products?
Industry economics
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Benchmark competitiveness of the irrigation Industries in Tasmania vs. the same industries
in other countries
There is an interplay between confidence building & technology development in irrigation.
How can this be best optimised?
How do we optimise the processing sector to support growth & value-add?
What strategies suit scaling up in agriculture: farm mergers, business models that combine
small farms?
Business models
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7.5.3
What are some possible business models? Can we look at other niche markets and how they
conduct business
Can cooperatives deliver benefit to the producer/community?
What business models enable investment in on-farm & food processing infrastructure?
How will farmers develop new enterprises in their business and farming systems?
What constrains the development of marketing clusters?
Natural resource management
Distilled questions
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How can we protect landscape health?
What are the environmental risks and how should these be managed on farm and
regionally?
What are the soil health, drainage and sustainable production issues on farm? How do these
interact regionally?
Resource protection & risk management
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Scope out optimal resource use efficiency at farm and landscape level
How can we effectively use remote sensing to monitor and report on landscape health?
What are acceptable or desirable levels of change in ecosystems?
Detailed mapping of soils, climate data etc. as guidance for suitable enterprises
Social impact & regulations: How to get the compliance model right? What are effective
and pragmatic approaches to meeting community’s expectations regarding environmental
protection.
What are the social consequences of irrigation development?
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Is integrated production possible that reduces waste, enhances ecosystems and biodiversity
and minimises or mitigates “pollution”?
How to manage irrigated agriculture to have a neutral or positive impact on environment?
Understand what others (E.g. NZ) have done re best practice and minimising impacts –
particularly with dairy effluent and eutrophication.
Catchment scale landscape health and resource protection
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What are the areas most suited to irrigation?
How do we prevent adverse impacts to the environment?
How to maintain & improve landscape function – minimise/avoid environmental damage?
Catchment mapping and modelling for resource protection - Soil mapping, enterprise
suitability mapping, soil resilience (irrigation/cultivation), salinisation, waterlogging, water
table risk etc
What options for biodiversity conservation in an agricultural matrix? Eg Identify
undeveloped prime agricultural land & develop in exchange for preserving less productive
land
Rainfall/water-cycle drainage management, from on-farm to catchment i.e. where do the
water/nutrients move to?
Baseline understanding of resource health needs to be understood & monitored & managed
On-Farm - Soil health & drainage
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7.5.4
How to prevent problems occurring as a result of irrigated Agriculture?
What are suitable techniques for draining duplex soils?
Drainage RD&E for irrigated agriculture: what is best practice drainage/irrigation for
midlands
Systems for maintaining and improving soil health (drainage, rotations, nutrients,
amendments)
How do we improve soils into the future to maintain sustainability while maintaining
profitability?
RD&E & E
Distilled questions
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How do we build an effective innovation system? How would it work? What would it look
like?
How can Tassie have a competent system of training, skills development and education for
ag?
Is more needed to ensure skilled labour? What is the role of Government?
What is needed to deliver better and effective extension?
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R&D systems & innovation
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Use and support producer action-learning groups to investigate local needs and focus
research on local priorities – eg TIA to work with top producers as research partners
What are the successful RDE models (that are driven by industry demand) around the world?
How can we learn from them?
What examples exist, on innovative ways government policies can support adoption onground to get optimal benefits from large-scale infrastructure P/P investment?
Effectively connect with international research agendas and identify pathways for UTAS/TIA
to become a world leader in temperate irrigation research and extension
Research on how agrifood innovation occurs in practice?
Should there be a dedicated water user levy to fund R & D (regionally specific)
Training & education
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Develop strategic business skills education/training courses for agriculture/agribusiness
Incorporate agribusiness, ecology & extension skills in tertiary education
Business management and financial training for robust and realistic analysis of new
enterprise
Up-skilling of farm business owners/operators: What enables businesses to undertake
transformational change without serious consequences (eg bankruptcy, soil destruction)?
Profile opportunities for young managers of complex, diverse intensive farms (with scale)
Extension
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Every research project needs communication, adoption/extension strategies
Ensure research findings are delivered to practitioners in a useable format
Facilitated learning and discussion groups
Ensure producers know how to best apply tech & info & are confident to do so.
National network of peer-to-peer learning (farmers, agronomist, researcher) using learning
sites to build confidence on an agreed range of priority topics
Enable commercial service providers & sales people with better skills & knowledge about
water, soils, energy & nutrients for efficient production.
Publish agrifood innovation case studies
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