M
To o
’
r/o Eco n o mic
Situa tio n
2?
‘
ADD R E SS
O"
"ER "ER T "O O "ER
SAN
B E "O R E T "E
"R AN C ISC O CO MME R C IAL
O C TO BE R 9 1 9 1 9
,
C L "B
‘l
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S
:
mar
k
re
p
iden t
rer
W
M
f
"R E D ER IC " W "ITTO N
"R AN C ISC O C O MME R C IAL C L "B
C
.
S
A
N
f
o
R
o
.
t od a y wi t h a m an wh o h as been in the w ar from
the begin ning At the firs t a la rm his s ervi ce began an d not fo r n e arl y
a ye a r a f
ter the ar m isti ce w a s he a ble to throw o ff e ve n bri e fly
the he avy b urden Ofhi s world d u ties There i s no other m a n cer
ta inly n o o ther Ame r ic a n O fwh o m th a t c an be s a i d "e s t a nds
a l o ne i n a world o fmen
There i s s ometh i ng ine vi t a bl y tri fling a nd tin k l i ng i n the e f
for t
am o ng the f
e w O fu s here tod a y to p ut into w o rd s t he tho u ghts th a t
o r we a re consc i o u s th a t he i s
a re i n o ur m i nds tow a rd o u r g u est f
k n own a n d lo v ed b y mill i ons In u nco u nted l a ng u age s the pr a y ers o f
li t tle ch i ldr en gO u p fo r him a s gre a te r a n d more de ar th a n a n y arm y
ch i e for k i ng or s a int An d yet u n av ail i ng a nd ine ffecti ve a s i t is we
m u st expres s to Mr "oo ver somethi n g o fthe tho ugh t t h a t we who
Appl a u se "
li ve in Amer i c a hold fo r h i m "
We rejo i ce in h i m as a Cal i forn i a n We exult in h i m a s a gre a t
—
Americ a n am o ng the gre a tes t "u t together with th a t e xu lt a t ion
—
a
n
a
a
f
a re co n i
gre
ter
eel
i
ng
a nd t h a t r e oic i ng there i s a deeper
d
g
j
ti o n m ay I s ay solemn and deepl y mo vi ng th a t i n h i m we h a ve one
g ures one o f those r are a nd r ad i a nt fe w whose
o f h i s t or y s gre a t fi
feet a re u po n the he ights a n d whose n a mes a re wr i tten a mong the
st ar s "o r it h as been h i s wor k to ennoble h u m an i t y a n d to g ive to
h u m an l i fe someth i ng O ft h a t spir it and essence wh i ch l i n k s it w i th
Appl a u se "
the d ivine "
O nl y a gre a t poet c a n phr a s e "erber t "oo v er "ipling m ust h a v e
h ad in m i nd su ch a m an a s he whe n he s aid :
E AR E
m eeting
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,
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,
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i
’
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’
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.
“
y o u can d eam and t make d eam y o u m te ;
bi k and not ma k e b g b y o
im
Ify o u
m eet w ito t i mp b and d
Ify o u
If
no
r
ca n
t
:
r
t ou
n
ca n
r
t:
at
ur a
;
i sarter,
r u
t eat to e tw i mp o te j t to am e;
talk witb c o wd b t keep y o i tu e
Ify o u
lo e to common to u co;
0 w lk with k i ng
lo i ng f iend can h t y o u ;
If itb f
m ch
If all m en co n t wito y o u b t non e t
Ify o u
fill th nfo g i ing m in ute
Wito ixty econd w tb f di tance n
tb and
To u i to
y tbi g th at i it
And wbi b i: mo e y o u ll b a man
And
ar
r
ca n
r
: no r
er
ne
:,
r
a
o e: n or
v
s
s
r:
:
e ea r
e
,
ur
:
v
oo
or
o
u
,
,
ru
s
ever
r
ur v r
u
r
’
e s
e
r
,
e u
”
s
ut
u
r
u
ca n
r:
r
o
’
n
e
[4]
”
.
r
,
n
,
,
r
’
d da ress
’
M
f
o
R.
"ER"ERT
"EN TL EMEN :
I would be a poor mind if I
R.
C"AIRMAN
AN D
ere n o t
greatly emba rrassed at this moment TO
merit the title o fa great Californian would
be merit beyond that that could be con
ferred in any community in this world because there is
n o community o f the intelligence and character Of this
State O fCalifornia After what we have heard i t is per
haps a little di fficult to come down to the subj ect that I
have chosen to worry y o u with for a moment today I t is
n o t th e L eague Of Nations "
L aug hter "
I t h as been my duty especi ally during the last ten
months to make a systematic study Of certain social
and economic currents throughout the world in order
that those gentlemen engaged in an endeavor to make
peace could be as well advised as possible I have re
t ain e d some Of the notes made on those occasions and I
have thrown a few Of them together with the hope that
perhaps i t might be Of some assistance to you in fo rm u
lating your o w n minds about certain problems with
which this country i s confronted
In entering upon a dis cussion o f som e issues in the
world s economic situation I wish to make an immediate
di fferentiation in two widely separated economic phe
w
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,
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’
[5]
ll
fl
A
W
4
d ddrerr
M
f
R
o
.
H ER B E R T H O O"E R
today That lies In the di fference o f the eco
nomic situation Of the agri cultural populations of the
world as distinguished from the industri al populations
and in the industri al population for lack Of a better
term I include the production O fnon agricultural raw
material manufacturing and transportation generally
that is chie fl y those agencies concerned wi th paid
hat is in the main a division Of town a n d
P ractically all of the worst Of o u r economic and
Is today center in the towns
any casual survey Of the world s economi c situa
tion at this moment will display two extraordin ary
perhaps not extraordi n ary but two very pertinent facts
On e o f them is the depth to which p od uction has
r
t
s
m
m
b
ro
s
a
the
othe
r
i
?
v
fi
d
fi
s
fl
e
d
gu m gy p
pp
/
f wh ic h produ tio h
c
as i n creas ed in agric u ltu re Th e in
n
fort ;
du s trial classes all over the world have slackened e f
the agricultural classes all over the world have redoubled
their efforts
I wish first to deal a moment with the industri al sit
u a tio n I take it that there is o n e thesis o n which every
business man and every economist no matter what the
“
—
bent o fhis mind can agree and that is Th a t the very
i
foundation o fthe maintenance and the improvement in
O
the standard O fliving lies in securing the QW
”
the human b e ing
from this that the maximum producti vity
cannot be Obtai ned without the elimination of waste
I t further follows that the application of such a proposi
no
m en a
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,
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-
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’
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r
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v
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[ ]
6
"
To e Wo rld Sc o n o m i c S i t u a t io n
”
tion must stand several tests and the princi p al o n e o f
these is that the maximum production can only be O b
t ain e d u n der conditions that protect and stimulate the
w ell being Of the indi vidual producer
N o w th e causes o fthe present decreased productivity
are to s o m
extent the same throughout the world
There was a great mobilization o findustry during the
war on new lines of endeavor There was a new dis tribu
tion o f commodities and a distorted purpose in co m
merce With the cessation o fhostilities a large part Of
the industries Of the world have h ad to be redirected
back to peace work and there has ,O f necessity been
some disruption in production
The struggle for political rearrangements during the
armistice has had a sti fl ing e ffect o n production We
have to bear in mind that five Old empires have been
split into twenty di fferent states Tihe old empires were
t
each Of them economic units an
d we thus have them
broken into twenty economic fragments and the result
could not be other than a decrease in production
There has been a physical exhaustion Of a large sec
tion Of the population particularly in E urope P rivation
from war and under feeding all have contributed to
create a great re fl ex against renewed exertion
TO a minor degree considering the w hole there h a s
been a destruction Of equipment and tO Ols There has
been some loss o forganization and skill due to diversion
to war
The delay in peace has particularly in E uro pe de
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[7]
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fl ddreu
e
M
f
R.
o
H E RB E R T H O O"E R
laye d the import o f raw materi als fo r until peac e is
made credits cannot be arranged and factories cannot
be reopened E urope has exhausted practically the
whole Of its movable securities I t must borrow working
capital with which to secure raw materi al and that work
ing capital cannot be available until we have peace
There is also a large factor in the soci al ferment that
arises primarily o u t Of the necessity o f economic re
adj ustment O fwages in an endeavor to continually meet
the rise in prices that are themselves the result Of the
vicious circle Of in fl ation in money and credits during
the war
There is a further note in all this turmoil and tumult
and that is the insistent demand Of labor for higher
n t he a dmifiigf
standards O fliving and a W
fa tio n of
i ts ow
many
th notions Of
sociali
d by many millions o fpeople
and in some countries also
labor has become infected with the notion that it in
fort O fthe
c reases the total sum Of labor as it limi ts the e f
individual Thus we have the demand for a six hour day
"rom all these causes accumulating in di fferent coun
tries in di fferent intensity there is one essential fact and
that is that the industri al productivity O fthe world h as
reached so lo w an ebb that nothing but political and
moral economic chaos finally interpreting itself into a
loss o flife on a scale hitherto undreamed of is upon us
unless constructive measures can be set up by w hich the
,
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8
,
“To e Wo rld Sco n o m i c S it u a t i o n ”
world and more partic u larly E urope is to return to
work
Some items in the present situatio n illustrate the ex
tent to which productivity has fallen An inquiry which
s h o w e d that there
I carried o u t w e m o n th
were fifteen million famili e s recei ving unemployment
—
allowances in E urop e practically a population Of sev
v e millions being c arried on charity by go v ern
e n ty fi
ments and being paid almost wholly by the sheer issue
o fpaper currency
The coal consumption Of E urope had o n the first Of
August fallen to a rate o f
tons per annum
as compared with
tons pre w ar and 600
tons at the day Of the armistice
Taking E urope as a whole Of the population Of about
something less than 3
can be
supported o n their o w n soil Approximately o n e hundred
millions Of these people must live by the manufacture
and marketing Of products o ftheir labor to other cou n
tri es in exchange fo r their foo d I t is a sinister fact that
the peo ple today being supported o n unemployment
allowanc es practically represent the surplus population
Of E urope "efore the war these whole masses
tion produced from year to year only a small margin Of
commodities over and above their necessary co n su m p
ti o n and the amounts they required for their exchange
abroad for vital necessities I t is true they managed
to support armies and navies that they had a class o f
n o n producers
an d that they did gain slightly in in
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m
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[9]
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d ddreu
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f
R
o
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H E R BER T H O O "E R
ternal improvements and investments abroad ; but all
these surpluses were Obtained at the cost Of a da n ger
o u sly low standard Of living
More particularly was this true in the c ase Of "reat
"ritain where the largest volume o f"ri tish production
was undoubte dl y secured at a fearful cost in the stand
ard Of living and the ultimate physical demoralization
Of an industri al population
N o w in pre war days E urope had the advant a ge o f
the enormous stimulus Of individualism I t had a lso the
adv antage o fgreat economic discipline ; and during the
war the patriotic impulse to production and a reduction
in consumption carried them on in spite Of the dive rsion
Of men to war and munitions "u t during the war g reat
promises were held o u t in every country of E urope as to
economic betterment with peace With the cessation of
hostilities the patriotic stimulus Of war towards pro
duction was lost and an insistent demand for economic
change came from every quarter with the armistice
Now this social ferment is the most difli c u lt problem
in front Of the whole world I t grows fundamentally o u t
Of a yearning for higher standards Of living demand for
economic change in the fl aw s O flabor and in E urope
for a greater equality o fopportunity o r to phrase it in
another way fo rzh effg i drw si o nfaf
very large areas this has resulted in actual
and th
dic al ideas ; and in
other areas it has taken a milder fO
f demands for
nationalization o fcertain industries
economic im
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”
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M
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fl
‘
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[
10
]
,
“To e Wo rld Ec o n o m i c S it u a t io n ”
pulse Of the "rench R evolution O fa century and a half
ago was a better di vision o fthe land The economic im
pulse Of these revolutions that we have had in the last
3
"
.
e
5,”
<
industry
I t is to be noted that these two movements are not
from the agricultural classes ; that they are town My
phenomena
N o w all thi s ferment whether it is in the form of de
mands for an equalization o fwage with the cost Of liv
ing o r whether it is in the form o frestri c tion Of indi vid
ual output in an endeavor to increase the total volume
Of employment o r whether it is in the nature O fsoci ali
z a tio n with the hallucination that men will work f
or
altruism alone o r whether it takes the form Of strikes o r
—
lockouts o r whether it: takes any other form all have
o n e concrete result and that is that we have a d
W
producti vi ty Q3 } has placed all E urope in j eopardy and
that has come to i nvad e th is c o u n try
These phenomena until recently had not penetrated
the United States to any great degree but no man can
say in the face O fthe enormous strikes that we are con
fronted with that we are at all free from the Eu ro pe a n i
z a tio n Of the United States There will be no use Of tears
over rising prices if our pro du c tiv ity m ain t ain s its present
level for rising prices are simply the visualization Of in
fic ie n t production When production breaks down
su f
prices must rise and the richer are supplied and the
poorer do without R ight here is the origin o fclass dis
.
m
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W
m
“M
m
n
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[
II
]
9
96
fl ddrerr
e
w
tin c tio n s
M
f
R.
o
H E R B E R T H O O"E R
and the origin Of violence We want no classes
.
n o w have and the opportunity for
which
we
pp
every man b y exertion to participate in all that we
possess
This to my mind is the primary and pressing prob
lem Of this moment and the first step in its solution is to
get peace P eace is however but a single step and the
fundamental fact is that the world is produ cing less in
du s trial m ateri al than i t requires to m aintain its total
population Therefore the busi ness O fthe whole world
—
the business Of every thinking man is as soon as it can
a
to find some
are con
fronted
solution
o
o rtu n l ty
,
,
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ful formul ae O f "olshe
Sdci alism ha v e already wrecked themselves o n
the rock Of production "o r such reduced production
they have caused the death and misery Of millions O f
people They have been abandoned even by their
leaders We need some definite substitute some plan for
sol v ing this problem Th e so lu tio n must be found by
“
Americans in the practical American w a b ased upon
American ideas o n Am e riEa if p I o so p h y Of life And
further it must be founded upon o u r own n ational in
s tin c ts and in harmony with O
u r own n a tio n al in s titu
I t cannot be founded by creating class fe eling O f
rs and capitalists Unless we can find such 21 pl
In
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'
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,
“To e Wo rld 8 co n o m i c S i t u a t io n ”
we shall be subj ected
to
the disintegra ting
m
-
th e 0rie s o
f
3
"
W
fifi
fi fi
fifi
me that any solution o f this problem
must go deeper than questions o f strikes lockouts o r
arbitration fo r thes e presuppose a con flict o f interest
We have got to g o sooner o r later to the root Of this
ficulty There is no solution short o f c o
di f
We must begin by creating so
somewhere a solidarity O finterest in e v e ry sec tio n Of the
people conducti ng our industrial m achine The worker
the administrator and the employer are absolutely inter
dependent o n o n e another in this task Of securing the
maximum production and a better di vision O fits results
I t is hopeless to secure a solution if we are to set these
people up as di fferent class es fighting with each other
Maximum production must be founded on the
mum exertion O f every individual within his physi
ability and upon the reduction O f wa ste not only
dividual but national Un less we are going to secure t
maxim umproduction through the combined e ffort and
intelligence O four entire economic machine we will ha ve
destroyed the very fou ndations u po n w
h ic h we build the
higher ac tivi ties Of life
O n e o fthe most important actions taken by our P res
ident was the summoning Of the Industrial Conference
at Washington
I f that conference can evolve some
method by which we can obtain industrial peace it will
,
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w
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‘
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p
u
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i
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O
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f
fi
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[
1
3
]
M
t
o
i
fl ddrerr of
c
M
R
.
H ER B ER T H O O "E R
more fo r the world in the next tw o years than
c o fNations can possibly do during the same
I n the last seventy fiv e years industry has developed
into large units We have in a great degr e e lost the
interest Of the individual worker in the produce o fhi s
hands In the specialization Of industry we have dulled
the worker by intense pro duct ion without gi ving him
an
b
e
other
interes
t
we
have
widened
the
space
a
n
d
y
tween the employer and the employee We have de
stroyed all the Old intimacy between the employer and
the employed which bore withi n i t mut u al respon si
bility SO we must search deeper for a solution than lies
in mere superficial agreement i f we are to find an end o f
this constant stru ggle We must find in the relati o nship
o f employer and employee some common bridge o f
te n a n c e Of
[ actual individual
must have
a contribution on both sides Of
energy their
full intelligence and their full responsibility To do this
we must secure a better basis o fdistributio n Of the re
s u lts from labor from skill and intelligence if we are
going to secure this larger interest in production
N O W the human race has increased its standard o f
productivity and therefore its standard o f living
through a thousand years o f growth o f an extremely
intricate organization of production and distribution
This organization contains within itself a great stimula
tion to skill to invention and to industry We can not
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[
I4
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“To e Wo rld Ec o n o m i c S it u a t io n ”
maintain the production which we now ha ve by the
destruction or sudden disturbance Of this delicate organ
iz a tio n The margins upon which the human race is liv
ing tod ay are too small to warrant a drop Of only ten per
cent in our productivity The maximum production
does not lie in the abandonment of the in dividual reward
fo r e f
fort and intelligence I t lies in a proper stimulation
Of these qualities of skill and e ffort and their stimulation
by the only stimulant that is con s tant in the human
character and that is his own self interest
I mentioned the question Of waste an m o n o t mean
alone the w as te of strikes and O funemployment and the
lack o f interest in labor but also national waste
b
National wast e contributes to decrease the e fli c 1e n cy o f
e
w
the entire industrial machine and thus to decrease the
available commodities for distribution We have in this
country a government the administrative organs Of
which we set up before we had gained o u r complex e co
nomic organization and we further distorted that go v
e rn m e n t by the measures we were compelled to take in
war time There lies a wide field for adj ustment in o u r
present processes both as to gag es, to expenditure to
o ur railways and a control of dominant enterprises and
to
the actual administration o f the government
generally
I have n o panacea for any Of these problems I believe Jo
that these are the lines Of advance This requires that
the constructive devotion O fthe Offi cials Of this country
and the intelligence Of the enti re pe ople should be
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[
1
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fl ddrer:
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H ER B E R T H O O "ER
directed to these issues instead Of to issues that are now
exhausted and are pra c tically accepted
Agriculture has had but a minor penetration o fthese
difli cu lties that permeate the town populations I t was
never so prospe rous n o r in so high a state o fproducti vity
as today E ven in E urope there is not an acre for whi ch
seed could be Obtained o r agricultural implements
found that has n o t been planted The food situation in
the world today is therefore not a question Of s u pply
There are ample supplies o fthe most essenti al co m m o d
ities to feed the whole of civilization until the next
harvest The problems Of this division O flife are there
fore not the re fl ex Of the currents that dominate indus
trialism There is however in this calling a very large
and difli cu lt problem I t arises from the fact that the
season o fthe fl ood delivery of the result of our American
labor is now upon us We shall have a large
—
ver our own consumption probably between
teen and twenty million tons Of food that we wish to
market abroad
only customer fo r eig h ty g o n ine ty pe r
llig e re n t countries have to
an sted their transferable
securities Their production O f industrial commodities
to exchange for this food cannot begin until they have
had raw materials They cannot Obtain raw materials
8 and t
until they have had
re
we
are
rope
i ntil we hav e peace
“
idle today we are preventing ourselves from finding a
,
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vow
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ar
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[
16
]
fl ddrerr
c
M
f
R
o
.
H E R BE R T H O O "E R
While o n agricultural subj ects a word for th e co n
sumer may not be amiss We hear a great deal Of justi
fia ble complaint o fspeculation in the primary necessit ies
of life There have been many men w ho have taken
unj ustifiable advantage o fthe te rrible economic disru p
tion o fthe last twelve months Some of this speculation
has been of an absolutely vicious order "y viciousness
I mean men who give no service in distribution w ho
have bought food the prime necessities o flife with a
view to lifting their price out o fthe community "u t the
great rise l n pr i ces this last seven months since the
demobilization of the "ood Administration has been due
to other causes entirely These causes age
and they lie generally in the anticipation that was held
by the whole food producing and food marketing world
that with the opening o ftwo hundre d million customers
in Central E urope there would be a demand o f such
dimensions as to make a world shortage Therefore
there was a large amount of buying a large amount o f
w ithholding from t h e m arket of what o n e may term a
protective order not with a view of speculating against
the community but o f safeguarding supplies E ven
gov ernments have been engaged in this operation To
put it in another way many people hav e been increasing
their stocks out o fa fear that there would bé a sc arcity
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w
m
w
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w
a s
imfigof the present harvest we had
th at before th éfiéf
larger s tocks o ffood o fmany kinds in o u r public ware
houses than we have had at any time during the pas t
‘
[
18
]
"
To e Wo rld Ec o n o m i c S it u a t io n
”
five years Tw o conclusions can be drawn from this :
one is that we did n o t over export foodstu ffs from the
United States during the past year ; the other is O fmore
importance and that is that with these accumulated
stocks and probably the largest harvest that we have ever
had we have ample supplies to carry over the next year
The demands from Central E urope will never amount
to the creation of such a shortage as has been anticipated
by the food trades and the public may yet score o ff the
speculator While E urope needs and will import most O f
o u r surplus during the year if they can find credits with
which to buy it it has not the resources to import one
atom more than is absolutely necessary to preserve life
and there is no j ustification today for the anticipation of
any over demand upon the United States during the
next twelve months There is however ample room for
anxiety t hat in the next five months of our maximum
production through the delays in peace and in the set
ting up of credits E urope will not be in a position to
purchase her custom ary food supplies during the time of
our high production and that it is now time for us to dis
play some interest in what will happen to our agricultural
prod ucers when o u r warehouses become overc harged
There is one general fault with food prices in the
United States and that is the ex
ensiveness
of
o u r dis
p
margins
between
the
farmer
and
e
W
W
the consumer are larger in this country than in any other
country in the world even eliminating the whole ques
tion of speculation The whole distribution system needs
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[
1
9]
W
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m
m
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i
d ddrerr
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if
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M
f
R
o
.
H ER B E R T H O O"ER
a careful analysis and study and some form of deliberate
rem edy Such remedies do not however take the form
of governmental interference except against monopoly
and vicious speculation I t would be amiss if I did not
mention that there are some articles in the world today
of which there is an actual world shortage On some
textiles clothing materi al and a few food stu ffs such as
sugar and coffee and a few items of that character the
price level is a level b ased on shortage Nothing will
permanently correct such price levels but an increase in
production or a decrease in consumption and a co n
tin n ed decrease in production in the manufacturing
community can only tend to lift the whole list o fthese
prices higher
Now these are a few of the problems that demand
immediate consideration in the nation There are others
e on you for some hours
k cleared of this peace question
we bring to bear the great intel
on its solution These things mean
he welfare of o u r people and to the world than
even the L eague great as I believe i ts aspirations and
its purposes are We have spent two years in war and
we have spent a year making peace and now let us have
a year in economics in order that we may not find our
selves in a worse plight than we were before we entered
upon it "
A p plause "
M Whitton I prop se three cheers f M "erbert "oo ve r
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o
or
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T"IS
"O O "
IS D"E ON T"E
STALCPED "EL OW
DATE
0
AN IN ITIAL "IN E O " 2 5 CE N TS
W IL L "E A SS ESS E D "O R "A IL "R E TO R ET"R N
T "IS "OO " O N T"E DA T E D "E T"E P EN A L T"
W IL L IN C R EA S E TO 5 0 C ENTS O N T"E "O "R T "
ON T"E S E"ENT" DA"
DA" AN D TO
O "E R D"E
.
.