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China and Hong Kong’s Status Quo
Nov. 16, 2016 Hong Kong’s High Court rules vocal pro-independence members should lose
council seats.
By Brendan O’Reilly
Hong Kong’s nascent pro-independence movement has recently made headlines and increased
its political profile. Now, Beijing and its local allies are suppressing some of the first elected
representatives of this movement. This shows both Beijing’s strengthening political influence
over the territory, and its perennial fears of open challenges to its legitimacy. Most people in
Hong Kong are in favor of maintaining the status quo, but even the smallest defiance of China’s
territorial integrity is treated as an existential threat by the Chinese leadership.
Openly pro-independence “localist” candidates were elected to Hong Kong’s 70-member
Legislative Council for the first time in September. In total six pro-Independence candidates won
seats in the elections. Two of these elected lawmakers, 30-year–old Sixtus Leung and 25-yearold Yau Wai-ching represent the newly formed Youngspiration party. Youngspiration was created
in the wake of 2014 youth protests against Beijing’s increasing influence in Hong Kong.
Pro-independence passions run deep in a small but vocal minority of Hong Kong’s population.
Localist candidates won about 19 percent of the popular vote during recent council elections.
This result corresponds well with opinion surveys that show roughly 17 percent of the population
wants independence in 2047, with 22 percent ambivalent towards the proposal.
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Pro-Beijing demonstrators shout slogans outside Hong Kong’s Legislative Council on Nov. 13, 2016. ISAAC LAWRENCE/AFP/Getty
Images
At their swearing-in ceremony in October, the two Youngspiration members displayed banners
reading, “Hong Kong is not China.” While reciting a mandatory oath, Leung replaced the words
“Hong Kong special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China” with “Hong Kong
nation.” Yau went a step further, inserting expletives and the derogatory word “Che-na” in her
oath. The Japanese used the term “Che-na” as a pejorative for China before and during the
Second Sino-Japanese War.
The reaction from Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing camp has been swift and decisive. Pro-Beijing
Legislative Council Secretary-General Kenneth Chen declared their oaths to be invalid under
Hong Kong’s governing Basic Law and took the unprecedented step of barring their entrance
into the body. Patriotic factions organized street protests outside the council, denouncing Leung
and Yau as traitors and equating them with Japanese war criminals.
After a few weeks of political and legal maneuvering, the central government in Beijing
intervened in the standoff. On Nov. 7, the Standing Committee, a powerful grouping of 150
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lawmakers within China’s National People’s Congress, interpreted Hong Kong’s Basic Law.
According to their unanimous interpretation, Hong Kong Legislative Council members must take
their oath clearly and sincerely, and they can be legally disqualified from taking office if they fail
to meet these requirements. This gives the Hong Kong government the right to decide on the
sincerity of mandatory oaths made by elected lawmakers.
On Tuesday, Hong Kong’s High Court ruled that the Youngspiration members should lose their
seats. Justice Thomas Au Hing-cheung said his ruling would have been the same regardless of
the interpretation by China’s Standing Committee. Regardless of this claim, Beijing and its local
allies have created an effective legal barrier between organized forces championing Hong Kong
independence and the territory’s political system.
Pro-Beijing, pro-status quo political parties dominate the Hong Kong government. Currently,
these parties have 40 seats in Hong Kong’s 70-member council. Meanwhile, pro-democracy
parties have 23 lawmakers in the council. These parties want increased representative
democracy, and they are wary of Beijing’s increasing influence. However, leaders of the
established pro-democracy outfits have somewhat distanced themselves from Youngspiration’s
radical protests, while supporting their right to serve as legislators. After the effective banning of
Yau and Leung, pro-independence localist factions now have only four seats in the council.
The localist movement’s origins stem from the inherent tensions in the “one country, two
systems” regime that governs Hong Kong (and nearby Macau). After 156 years of British rule,
which ended in 1997, Hong Kong was a very wealthy financial center with a reputation for clean
governance, personal liberty and rule of law. However, it never had meaningful democracy.
From the late period of British rule onward, slow and incremental reforms were adopted to
increase the scope and power of representative elections.
Beijing promised to incorporate Hong Kong into a “one country, two systems” paradigm in which
the Chinese government would oversee Hong Kong’s military and foreign affairs while leaving
the existing local order and legal system intact until 2047. However, China’s National People’s
Congress has the legal right to interpret Hong Kong’s Basic Law. This authority gives Beijing
huge political sway over contentious political issues in Hong Kong, and is a major cause of fear
for the political parties opposed to Beijing’s influence.
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Newly elected lawmaker Sixtus “Baggio” Leung, center, is restrained by security guards after attempting to read a Legislative
Council oath in Hong Kong, on Nov. 2, 2016. ANTHONY WALLACE/AFP/Getty Images
The gap between the generally young independence advocates and Hong Kong’s ruling parties
has arisen from economic, generational and political factors. Hong Kong residents were in the
prime position in the 1980s, 1990s, and the first decade of this century to profit from the
mainland’s new economic outlook and low-cost labor. However, many youth now suffer from
extremely high housing prices, increased cost of living, greater competition for jobs and other
negative effects of the mainland’s enormous economic influence.
It is important not to overstate this issue. It is very unlikely forces advocating Hong Kong
independence will gain much political power in the near future; those pushing for the cause
represent a minority of Hong Kong residents. Demographics are also not in their favor, as Hong
Kong has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world and a huge population of relatively
conservative elderly residents. Those who benefit from close ties with the mainland are
generally much wealthier and more influential than the pro-independence minority. The political
forces opposed to Beijing’s increasing political sway within the territory are by no means united.
Because of the historical and contemporary nature of the Chinese state, Beijing is particularly
sensitive to even marginal political, cultural and ideological threats to its internal unity. Chinese
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leadership perceives these threats in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and even in territories China
does not actually control. In early November, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned that the
“Communist Party would be overthrown” if it did not adequately react to any potential formal
declaration of Taiwanese independence. The possibility of Hong Kong breaking away from
Beijing’s rule is very small, but the Chinese state cannot ignore any organized opposition.
China is intent on maintaining its territorial integrity and will use all necessary means at its
disposal to suppress and extinguish separatist movements. In Hong Kong, the Chinese
government can appeal to Chinese nationalism and rely on the political system to counter the
territory’s independence movement. Pro-Beijing forces have used the words and deeds of
localist politicians and protesters to paint their political movement as unpatriotic sedition. Since
the beginning of this recent drama, pro-Chinese protests have been significantly larger than proindependence demonstrations, although many observers accuse pro-Beijing forces of paying
elderly residents to participate in patriotic protests.
Beijing’s approach carries inherent risks. Localist political forces believe that Beijing has not
interpreted Hong Kong’s Basic Law, but rather amended it. Many political moderates in Hong
Kong are not in favor of independence, but they are troubled by Beijing’s increasingly proactive
political machinations within the territory. Meanwhile, cutting off pro-independence groups from
legal political representation could push them to take extralegal action to challenge the reigning
system. While only the two Youngspiration candidates appear to be blocked at the moment, the
pro-Beijing Hong Kong government now claims the right to decide on the sincerity of oaths taken
by any lawmaker.
Open pro-independence politics in Hong Kong put Beijing in a difficult situation. Because of the
“one country, two systems” dynamic, it would be politically awkward and likely
counterproductive for Beijing to simply quash Hong Kong’s pro-independence parties with brute
force. At the same time, the Chinese state cannot afford to appear weak, especially as the
paradigm of political and social stability guaranteed by rapid economic growth is challenged by
serious economic headwinds. China has always faced tensions between the center and the
periphery, and it has always confronted the challenge of uniting an expansive, culturally diverse
empire with divergent local economic imperatives. Even marginal political movements that
openly challenge the legitimacy of the state and its territorial integrity represent potential
existential threats.
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