Jpn J Clin Oncol 2014;44(Supplement 1)i78 – i83 doi:10.1093/jjco/hyt220 What Efforts Should Be Made in Asia in a Globalizing World? Cross-boundary Cancer Studies at the University of Tokyo: International Public Good in the Asia-Pacific Era Shotaro Yachi Special Advisor to the Cabinet, Former Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Tokyo, Japan For correspondence, please contact Hideyuki Akaza, MD, Department of Strategic Investigation on Comprehensive Cancer Network, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904, Japan. E-mail: [email protected] Lecture date November 14, 2012 Received December 12, 2013; accepted December 13, 2013 Key words: cross-boundary cancer studies – the University of Tokyo – international public good – strategic diplomacy – smart power LECTURE PROFILE FORMATION OF A NEW POWER BALANCE Shotaro Yachi was born in Kanazawa City in 1944 and raised in Toyama. After graduating from the Graduate School for Law and Politics of the University of Tokyo, he entered the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1969 and retired from the Ministry in 2008. In Japan he worked in the Ministry’s Asian Affairs Bureau, North American Affairs Bureau, Treaties Bureau, as Director of the Personnel Division, DirectorGeneral of the Treaties Bureau, Director-General of the Foreign Policy Bureau, Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary and Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs. Overseas he served twice at the Embassy of Japan in the USA, and at the Embassy of Japan in the Philippines, at the mission of Japan to the EC and as Consul General in Los Angeles. Yachi undertook research at the Fletcher School from 1970 to 1972 and at the Center for International Affairs at Harvard University as a fellow, from 1987 to 1988. He taught as a part-time lecturer at Waseda University’s International Division (1986), at Sophia University’s Faculty of Law (1993, 1994), at Seinan-gakuin University’s Department of Law (1993), at Keio University’s Faculty of Law (1996) and at Chuo University’s Faculty of Law (2001 – 03). He currently serves as professor at the Institute of Japan – US Studies, Waseda University, as guest professor ( part-time) at the Faculty of Policy Management, Keio University, as part-time lecturer at the College of Arts and Sciences, University of Tokyo and as visiting professor at the Art Innovation Center, Tokyo University of the Arts. He was appointed as Special Advisor to the Cabinet in 2012. FROM A UNIPOLAR TO A MULTI-POLAR WORLD Since the bursting of the bubble economy in the early 1990s there has been a pervasive feeling that Japan is sliding down a slippery slope. The question remains whether Japanese society will continue to tumble down such a slope, or whether as a nation it can once again aim for the clouds and climb the slope with dynamism, reemerging once again as a responsible major power in the international community and one that provides international public good. Japan is currently teetering on a precarious precipice. So in what kind of terms should we consider what Japan needs to do in order to once again surmount the precipice? Following the end of the Cold War, the bipolar structure of USA – Soviet confrontation has been said to have been replaced by a USA – dominated unipolar structure. However, given the morass in which the USA has found itself in conflicts such as those in Afghanistan and Iraq, there are those who argue that the world is becoming increasingly multipolar, and still others who contend that we are now in a nonpolar era. Over the past 20 years, China has been rapidly expanding its military capability, backed by double-digit growth in defense spending, but in military terms the US-led unipolar structure is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. China has used the terminology, ‘One superpower and many other strong nations’ and viewed in purely military terms, this is an accurate summation. # The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: [email protected] Jpn J Clin Oncol 2014;44(Supplement 1) In economic terms, the USA, Europe, Japan, China, India and follower countries are major players in the international community. The situation is further compounded by the fact that international politics or the international community is experiencing the globalization of activities by non-state actors, which are actively crossing the national borders of nation states, those units that have been an integral part of the modern international community since the mid-17th century. Global corporations, or, more negatively, terrorists and hackers, infectious diseases and climate change have all become global phenomena. What we need to look at when considering the power balance of the international community is the relative reduction in the international status of the USA. For example, in GDP terms Japan was surpassed by China in 2010, and according to projections by McKinsey & Company, China will overtake the USA in 2027 to become the world’s largest nation in terms of GDP. The relative decline in the USA’s position also implies that position of other countries is on the rise, which we see in the increase in fortunes of the so-called BRICs emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, China and India. Looking back over history we see that once the most powerful nation in the world enters a period of relative decline, other countries step up to challenge that nation. Just like in the late 19th century, when the preeminence of the maritime power of Great Britain and its empire was challenged by the continental power, that was Germany, there are now those who theorize that a power transition would take place eventually between the USA and China. Power transitions in the past have been various in nature and format, with the one between Germany and Great Britain being a clash whereby Germany sought to oppose Britain militarily. In the case of the power transition between Britain and the USA, at the end of the 19th century, the USA sought to support Britain, and moved westward following the conclusion of the American Civil War, as it acquired new territorial possessions such as Hawaii and the Philippines. As such the power transition between Britain and the USA was one of cooperation. So how will a power transition between the USA and China unfold? Among scholars there are those who suggest it will be a melding of cooperation and competition. In political and security aspects China will vie to compete with the USA, but in economic aspects interactions between the two nations will be cooperative, given their mutual dependence. This theory suggests that a transition characterized by both cooperation and competition is a likely outcome. The third factor in any consideration of a new global power balance is that the focus of the international community has shifted to Asia and that we are now in what could be termed an Asia-Pacific era. The fourth factor is related to the proliferation and increasingly complex nature of global issues. These include nuclear-related matters, international terrorism, concerns over energy and resources, food supply and safety, and infectious diseases, to name but a few, all of which are increasing in complexity or severity. Take, for example, infectious diseases as just one of these issues; how can we engage i79 in international efforts to respond to the common threat posed to humanity by such diseases? In terms of security and politics there is a confrontational structure in place in the international community, but on other global issues, the USA and China must work together. The fifth factor to bear in mind is the expansion and evergrowing use of social networking services (SNSs). As technology develops apace it would be hard to believe that human cognition and understanding will be able to keep up. Although SNS has positive aspects, namely convenience for all, its use for political purposes has dark potential unless a good deal of thought is given to proper use. Advances in technology will continue to provide ever more varied ways of engaging with SNS and this could also impact the international community as a whole. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC ERA CENTER FOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH Above I have set out five elements that are relevant in the formation of a new power balance, including the era of the Asia-Pacific, about which I would like to further elaborate. The first point to make is that the center for global economic growth is gravitating toward Asia. According to statistics of the International Monetary Fund in 2011, the total trade of the l6 East Asia Summit (EAS) members (the 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plus Japan, China, Republic of Korea, Australia and New Zealand, membership which has since increased to 18 countries, with the accession of the USA and Russia), amounted to US$9.3 trillion, close to surpassing the total trade of the EU of US$10 trillion. Already almost half the world’s population is accounted for in this grouping and average economic growth rates over the past decade have been twice the global average, and the nominal GDPs of ASEAN countries, China and India have grown 4.2 times. Furthermore, according to estimates by major UK banking group HSBC, by 2050 the GDP of China will stand at US$25.33 trillion, followed by the USA at US$22.27 trillion and Japan at US$6.42 trillion. Whether these forecasts will prove to be true is uncertain, as they depend on various factors and preconditions. As the structure of one-party rule by the Communist Party in China employs both centripetal and centrifugal forces, which of these will gain strength and traction depends on future economic growth and no definitive statement on the outcome can yet be made. However, there is no doubting the fact that the center of global economic growth is gravitating toward Asia. EMERGENCE OF CHINA AND ADVANCE OF ITS MARITIME POWER The second point is the emergence of China and its maritime expansion. China has always been a large country and according to the research of some scholars, over the past 2000 years it has i80 International public good in the Asia-Pacific era always accounted for 30% of global GDP. However, following the Opium Wars from around 1840 the country endured a history of humiliation for around 140 years, but has since recovered to become the second-largest economic superpower in the world today. When technological capability is factored into considerations about China, according to estimates by some scholars, China was the preeminent power in the world in terms of technological capacity and economic power from 500BC through to 1500BC. According to projections by McKinsey & Company, China’s GDP will overtake that of the USA in 2027, and it is also said that China is utilizing a cybernetwork for the gathering of strategic intelligence. What is more, according to USA intelligence sources, there is a possibility that China has begun the construction of its first homemanufactured aircraft carrier. In this way China has made a peaceful rise in the global community and has started efforts toward maritime expansion. It is this maritime expansion that has the greatest significance for the Asia-Pacific region. THE USA RETURN TO ASIA The third point is the USA return to an Asia-centric focus. Under the Cold War structure following the Second World War, the USA fought two major wars in the Asian theater— the Korean War and the Vietnam War—and its focus was clearly on Asia. However, following the series of terrorist attacks on USA soil that occurred under the administration of former President George W. Bush, new threat countermeasures were launched that resulted in tremendous energy and budget being poured into strategy and action in the Middle East. A strategy for Asia was left on the back burner. When President Obama visited Japan in November 2009 he said himself that he was the first USA President to be born and raised at least in part in the Asia-Pacific region. In November 2011, during a visit to Australia, President Obama stated that ‘the USA has been, and always will be, a Pacific nation’, thus indicating that USA policy and strategy had returned its focus to the Asia-Pacific region. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has continued to make similar statements, from which it can be understood that the USA has returned its focus to Asia, following its shift to the Middle East. If a power transition between the USA and China occurs against the backdrop of the above-mentioned developments, it is likely that rivalry will develop in Asia between the two countries. In journalistic terms it is averred that a ‘Great Game’ may unfold in the Asia-Pacific region, similar to that which developed in Central Asia and Afghanistan between Great Britain and Russia prior to the First World War. CHALLENGES FOR JAPANESE DIPLOMACY STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY If we were to enumerate the challenges facing Japanese diplomacy in the midst of these international developments, the first things to point out are that Japan’s international position has declined in relative terms and that all of Japan’s economic indicators have similarly dropped. In the face of such a situation, Japan must give all its attention to engaging in strategic diplomacy. The mass media has been reporting recently that the number of Japanese students studying overseas is decreasing. While there are 190 000 Chinese students studying in the USA, there are ,20 000 Japanese students, a figure that is less than even Korean and Taiwanese students. This means that the human resources that could be employed in Japanese diplomatic efforts are becoming more limited, indicating that means of utilizing diplomacy will become more constrained. During the years of strong economic growth, Japan’s share of the world’s wealth increased, allowing for extravagance and waste to a certain degree, but in today’s Japan this is no longer possible. In economically stringent times, Japan must employ its diplomacy in a strategic manner. Strategic diplomacy entails looking long and hard at the relationship between the ‘means and the end’ and nurturing a posture that seeks to use all means available with a maximum efficiency. What needs to be borne in mind when considering strategic diplomacy is that a posture that seeks only to serve narrow, short-sighted national interests on an ad hoc basis serves no purpose and that rather it is essential to maintain consistency with common international benefit and international public good. International public benefit could be deemed to be peace, safety, security and prosperity in the international community as a whole. When Japan seeks to advance its own national interest, it is important to ensure that in doing so, it does not go against or damage international public benefit. The nation state is basically one that acts on the basis of self-serving interest, but there are ways in which this need not be the case. Japan’s leaders will therefore be likely required to seek out such ways, although they may be difficult. CREATING SMART POWER The second challenge for Japan is the creation of smart power. While smart power is related to strategic diplomacy, it represents more of a central national strategy, for which comprehensive consideration of diplomacy and security is required. For example, the issue of whether to participate in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement negotiations is a major one in Japan, and the reason why Japan has not entered the negotiations to date is due to the agricultural sector. The specific problem is rice. Currently, Japan-produced rice is protected by tariffs of .700% and joining the TPP and open up the agricultural industry will require agricultural reforms. If this issue is approached using conventional methods employed to date, while various ministries will consult on the matter and it will ultimately be discussed at the ministerial level, as long as the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is opposed to the TPP, no further progress will be made. As MAFF exists to protect agricultural interests Jpn J Clin Oncol 2014;44(Supplement 1) it is evident that no progress could be made from such a stance toward joining the TPP. To overcome this impasse, I believe that it will be necessary to create a national strategy headquarters directly under the control of the prime minister, which will engage in working level efforts to accumulate knowledge and expertise from around Japan, and also to create an organization similar in nature to the National Security Council (NSC) of the USA. Only such bodies would be capable of making a decision to open up the agricultural sector. Under the current system of inter-ministerial consultations MAFF would definitely remain unbending in its attitudes, but if a decision was to be made by national strategy headquarters under the control of the prime minister, MAFF has no choice but to accept any decision, making it perhaps just about possible to proceed with agricultural reform. A similar example that could be given is the policy that was announced by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 25% compared with 1990 levels. If such a policy was to be truly implemented it would also require not the conventional rounds of inter-ministerial consultations, but rather a national strategy headquarters that would have the power over individual ministries to determine a common strategy. The same can be said for energy policy. Making a decision on whether to move away from nuclear power or to maintain some or all of the 54 reactors currently in place in Japan and then taking that decision forward as part of energy policy as a whole, including how to boost the ratio of renewable energy, is not something that can be achieved through consultations among ministries concerned. A national strategy headquarters is absolutely necessary to break through the various policy deadlocks. A third point is to move away from conventional wisdom that clings to the success story of post-war Japan and to consider new ways to break the mold and move forward in different ways. In that sense the TPP has great significance. We need an initiative that will open up sectors, like agriculture, that are lagging behind and overcome obstructions to realize a breakthrough. LEADERSHIP IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD Although it is said that Japan’s relative international position has declined, it remains a fact that the country is the world’s third-largest economic power. Even in military terms Japan ranks fifth or sixth in the world and has a large population of over 100 million. Although the total land area is small, when the waters of the country’s exclusive economic zone are included, Japan’s area is actually sixth in the world. It can therefore be seen that Japan is a country that does possess power in various senses, but it is doubtful that it can be said that Japan has exerted leadership in the international community commensurate with its stature as the world’s second-largest economic power for most of the post-war period. One of the reasons for this lack of leadership is Japan’s defeat in the Second World War and a history of causing great i81 trouble for its close neighbors, which have meant that Japan has not been able to speak in assertive tones on various issues. If Japan makes even a minor attempt to raise its voice, there is a backlash from China. Likewise with Korea, when that country asks what Japan did there during its 36 years of colonial rule and whether Japan considers that it can now raise its voice with such righteousness, we are faced with a difficult situation. It is for reasons such as these that have prevented Japan from asserting greater leadership, even as it acquired power and influence that would have made it a suitable leader under different circumstances. Furthermore, even in economic aspects Japan was unable to raise its voice as there were products and services that it felt it must protect. During the Kennedy and Uruguay rounds of the negotiations for the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the Doha round of negotiations at the World Trade Organization, Japan never once fulfilled a leadership role. This was because there were things that needed protecting that prevented Japan from becoming a rule maker. In the field of international law too, Japan has never acted as a rule maker in the compilation of international economic rules. However, these past failures should not become engrained, and it is now important for Japan to continue to accrete power, restore its fortunes and devise initiatives that will allow it to act as a rule maker in the international community. ‘A FREE AND OPEN INTERNATIONAL ORDER’ Now that China is expanding into the maritime sphere it is of utmost importance to ensure that it understands that the principle of free navigation must absolutely be respected and that a free and open maritime order is an international imperative. China considers that historically the South China Sea was its own possession and it has followed a course in recent years of sending disguised fishermen to the island and coral reefs claimed by Vietnam and the Philippines, before gradually bringing these islets under its military protection. China needs to be made to understand that such actions are not acceptable. However, when such issues are raised and China is called on to comply with the laws of the sea as a maritime nation, it usually opts to engage in bilateral negotiations. Countries like Vietnam and the Philippines are unable to win any concessions in bilateral talks, which is the reason why China chooses this option. This too is something that cannot be allowed to happen. What Japan needs to do is to engage with China in the context of a free and open maritime order, or a free and open international trading order. This is something that Japan cannot do alone, however, and it is likely that approaches to China will have to be made in cooperation with the USA or other like-minded nations. EAST ASIAN COMMUNITY There is a feeling that the concept of an East Asian Community (EAC) has been strangely sullied since the administration of former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. i82 International public good in the Asia-Pacific era The Hatoyama Administration announced that the EAC vision would be advanced in a spirit of fraternity and in a trilateral summit with China and the Republic of Korea, the then-Prime Minister Hatoyama stated that ‘Japan relies too strongly on the USA and will now focus on Asia’, indicating that the axis for Japanese diplomacy would shift from the Japan – USA alliance to the EAC, or, more specifically China and the ROK. The then-Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada also stated at the time that Japan would exclude the USA. Under normal circumstances in diplomacy it would be necessary to appropriately pay one’s respects to a country such as the USA, with which Japan had enjoyed an alliance relationship for many years, but as the government dispensed with any such niceties it created a sense of displeasure and distrust in the USA This situation was brought about by the Hatoyama Administration’s lean toward the EAC. The concept of the EAC is ultimately to create an integrated body in East Asia similar to that in Europe. However, to hasten toward the creation of such a body would mean making many concessions that would detract from the ultimate purpose. It is an issue that demands not to be rushed, but rather advance carefully, with all parties working together to iron out any inconsistences or points of conflict relating to individual countries’ interests. However, diversity in Europe and Asia is tremendously different in nature. In the case of Europe there is a shared religion in Christianity, a shared experience of the European Enlightenment, and shared historical culture passed down from ancient Greece and Rome. Such commonalities are lacking in the case of Asia. However, I believe that it is fair to dream that 50 or 100 years hence, the people of Asia may share a common consciousness as being part of a community and that this will help to create the basis for a concept such as the EAC in a natural way. Rushing ahead and forcing through such a concept now will not work. Furthermore, given that the USA itself is asserting its position as a Pacific nation, it would be particularly difficult for Japan to take an approach that sought to exclude the USA. East China Sea, stating that its sovereignty and influence extend over the seas in the same way as land-based territories. Although the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea permits limited national rights to natural resources within a country’s exclusive economic zone, these are sovereign rights and not sovereignty. China is treating sovereign rights as sovereignty itself. The basis for this view lies in the difference with how China views the international order. International laws exist in the modern international community that date back to the time of the Westphalian sovereignty of the mid-17th century, and the accepted view of the international order based on modern international law is that under the sovereign state structure all states are, in form, equal before the law. However, China was not a participant in the formation of such an order and believes that modern international law is a construct of European design. The Chinese, however, are a pragmatic people and tend to cherry pick the laws that suit their national interest. For example, China has accepted the legal theory concerning continental shelves, but other legal precedents that do not fit in with national prerogatives are dismissed. China’s view of the international order is sino-centric, a China-centered pyramidal structure, with China standing at the apex. Given such views it is unlikely that China could aspire to become a global leader under current thinking. This is because a leader should be expected to uphold the concepts and philosophies that underpin and are shared by the international community as a whole. In the USA there are universal values that appeal to the hearts and minds of the people and are said to be the very concepts of a republic, namely freedom, respect for human rights, democracy and the rule of law. These concepts are lacking in China. China espouses the concept of a ‘Socialist Harmonious World’ and a ‘Socialist Harmonious Society’, but in philosophical terms it is difficult to say that this concept is one that represents a universal value. Is it not unlikely that a ‘harmonious society’ would be able to lead the world or have a spirit that would win over the people of the world? EMERGENCE OF CHINA THE GREATEST DIPLOMATIC CHALLENGE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY DISCUSSION The emergence of China is the greatest diplomatic challenge for the 21st century. China is a continental power, but it is currently expanding also as a maritime power. As a continental power China has aimed to ensure its own security by brining peripheral ethnic groups under its rule and has continue to expand its territories. China is maintaining this concept as it moves to expand into the maritime sphere, asserting that the South China Sea is its own ‘maritime territory’. Moreover, it is also using the term ‘core interest’ with reference to the South China Sea, in the same way that it used the term with regard to territories such as Tibet. China is also using the same arguments in debate over the Senkaku Islands and the Q: You have expounded on diplomatic concepts relating to universal values, describing value-based diplomacy and arc of freedom and prosperity, in which the role played by strategic diplomatic thought is significant. This seminar aims to set out a core direction for cooperation in Asia relating to cancer. However, moving a little away from the issue of cancer itself, I wonder if you could cast your eye over the position of Japan in Asia and the role of the U.S. – Japan relations in Asia, and give us your thoughts, based on your experience in diplomacy, on what international public good Japan could bring to this region and how this could be oriented towards the perspective of considering cancer in Asia.If Japan goes on to take a leadership role in Asia, in what ways do you think it should differentiate this role from that played by the U.S. to date? Are there any values that Japan could espouse that are different to the international universal values demonstrated by the U.S.? Yachi: With regard to your first point, I believe that Japan should seek to value its own history, traditions and culture and identify within those some things that Japan can teach the world and use to reach out to and appeal to the Jpn J Clin Oncol 2014;44(Supplement 1) people of the world concerning the Japanese spirit and national character. Furthermore, Japan upholds all of the universal values of respect for human rights, humanitarian actions, democracy and the rule of law, so I therefore believe that Japan should join the U.S. and Europe in fully advancing these values. Japan should also cooperate with the countries that could be expected to have similar respect for universal values and share them in the name of common interest.However, an extremely difficult question is to identify what it is that is universal in the Japanese spirit. At the very least, what we can say from the point of view of countries that are seeking to attain common universal values is that Japan could act as a reliable and trustworthy partner. An example of the virtues of the Japanese people can be seen in the attitudes that were displayed in the aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake, where people put themselves second to the needs of family members, neighbors, company colleagues and the community as a whole, displaying a spirit of selfsacrifice, discipline and caring. When viewed from other countries, from the U.S. for example, these acts would indicate that a people who display such virtues would be reliable partners in efforts to strive towards common goals.Q: From the perspective of further deepening the Japan – U.S. alliance, what specific challenges need to be overcome in order to address the issues relating to the right to collective self-defense? Yachi: The issue of the right to collective self-defense has a long history, and in order to fully utilize this right it will be necessary to either amend the Self-Defense Forces Act or achieve the passage the draft bill for the Basic Act on Security, which has been approved by the General Council of the LDP. If such legislation is passed it will eliminate the need for politicians to seek to change interpretations of the Constitution of Japan by simply changing their responses to parliamentary questions. A measured and careful response is required. Q: Do you envisage that the national strategy headquarters you have mentioned would be similar to the bureaucracy-led headquarters structure that is currently in place? Yachi: My image is along the lines of the National Security Council (NSC) of the U.S. In the U.S. the NSC is headed by the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, who has extensive decision-making powers granted by the President. The NSC in the U.S. is comprised not of politicians, but of top-level experts from around the country, who assist in policy planning. Such a structure is also necessary in Japan, and one that does not seek to bring together senior figures from just national government ministries and agencies. Q: If there were such a national strategy headquarters to make decisions on diplomatic challenges, what would be the important points in ensuring that the decisions are taken through to implementation at the working level? Yachi: Take for example the cases of the TPP and also environmental issues, if a national strategy headquarters were there to take the big decisions, I think that the administrative organizations of the Japanese government already have a high degree of capability in international terms and there are many extremely capable people working for government, who could carry through a decision once it has been made. In that sense there is no great need to change the current implementation structure. What may be necessary is to increase i83 flexibility and mobility within the system, whereby an official from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs could be easily transferred to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, for example. Q: Why does Japan insist on emphasizing its claims to territories such as Takeshima, the Senkaku Islands and the Northern Territories? Would it not be preferable for islands such as these to be administered jointly by Japan and the ROK, or Japan and China, and for the countries concerned to engage in joint development? Yachi: The sea, air and space are all global commons and we must work to ensure that they are free and open and available for all to utilize. However, there is a premise that territories and islands come under the sovereignty of specific nations. Around territories and islands there are territorial waters, exclusive economic zones and continental shelves, beyond which are international waters, where vessels of other countries have the right of passage. However, in response to cases like that of China, which is claiming that the South China Sea has always been its own maritime territory, there is a necessity to have a free and open maritime order in place. There is currently no concept that would permit sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands, for example, to be shared.At the same time, we must also take into consideration distrust that exists between people and also between nations. If a nation does not trust itself well it is unlikely to trust another nation. If Japan were to propose shared administration of the Senkaku Islands to China it is unclear how China would respond. It may dispatch naval forces to occupy the Senkaku Islands and before you know it China could be claiming that the islands of Okinawa were also part of its territory. This is not the way to ensure the peaceful administration of disputed islands.People hearing such arguments for the first time might be inclined to think that China would never seek to lay a claim on Okinawa. However, it must be remembered that Okinawa was once the Kingdom of the Ryukyus and paid tribute to both the Satsuma Domain and also to Imperial China. Indeed the ten families said to be the oldest on Okinawa are also said to have names of Chinese origin. At the time of the arrival of Commodore Matthew Perry in Japan in 1853 the Japanese on the main islands spent a sleepless night due to the presence of Perry’s four steam-powered ships, in contrast to which the Americans received a rapturous welcome on their arrival in the Ryukyus. The reason for this difference was that the Ryukyuans practiced an extreme form of diplomacy based on the premise that if a threatening thing or presence was given a welcome, it would leave without doing anything bad. The reaction of the mainland Japanese, in contrast, was to seek to repel the foreigners with all their might. If China were to really press a claim on Okinawa it might be the case that history would repeat itself and this would be something Japan would not accept. Putting it in extreme terms the issue is a very difficult one, as it deals with questions of whether to accept what would be enforced peace, or whether to seek self-determination and decide what to do by ourselves. The basic problem is a lack of trust between people and between nations. Conflict of interest statement None declared.
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