Presidential Politics in
Michigan
Dr. Lyke Thompson, Dr. Marjorie
Sarbaugh-Thompson, and
Jason Hardacre
Wayne State University
Fall 2004
1
Model of the major influences that decide
the winner of the Presidential election in
Michigan
H is to ry
E c o n o m ic C lim a te
R e p o s itio n in g o f
P o litic a l P a rtie s
L e g a l C o n te x t
P re s id e n tia l
E le c tio n
G ro u n d C a m p a ig n
M oney
C u rre n t E v e n ts
T u rn o u t
M e d ia
2
History of Michigan Presidential
Elections
3
Share of popular vote among political parties in Michigan, 1892-2000
80%
Percentage of Vote
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
18
9
18 2
9
19 6
0
19 0
0
19 4
0
19 8
1
19 2
1
19 6
2
19 0
2
19 4
2
19 8
3
19 2
3
19 6
4
19 0
4
19 4
4
19 8
5
19 2
5
19 6
6
19 0
6
19 4
6
19 8
7
19 2
7
19 6
8
19 0
8
19 4
8
19 8
9
19 2
9
20 6
00
0%
Year
Democrats
Republicans
Others
Note: In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt ran as a member of the Bull Moose Party and won a majority of the Michigan popular vote. He ran as a
Republican in 1904.
Source: www.uselectionatlas.org
4
1988 U.S. Presidential Election Results
Michigan
George H. W. Bush (R)
Michael S. Dukakis (D)
Vote Tally
Candidate
Number of Votes
Percentage of Total Vote
George H. W. Bush (R)
1,965,486
53.57%
Michael S. Dukakis (D)
1,675,783
45.67%
27,894
0.76%
3,669,163
100.00%
Others
Total
Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received.
Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org
5
1992 U.S. Presidential Election Results
Michigan
George H. W. Bush (R)
William J. Clinton (D)
Vote Tally
Candidate
Number of Votes
Percentage of Total Vote
George H. W. Bush (R)
1,554,940
36.38%
William J. Clinton (D)
1,871,182
43.77%
824,813
19.30%
23,738
0.55%
4,274,673
100.00%
H. Ross Perot (I)
Others
Total
Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received.
Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org
6
1996 U.S. Presidential Election Results
Michigan
William J. Clinton (D)
Robert J. Dole (R)
Vote Tally
Candidate
Number of Votes
Percentage of Total Vote
William J. Clinton (D)
1,989,653
51.69%
Robert J. Dole (R)
1,481,212
38.48%
336,670
8.75%
41,309
1.08%
3,848,844
100.00%
H. Ross Perot (RF)
Others
Total
Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received.
Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org
7
2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results
Michigan
Albert A. Gore, Jr. (D)
George W. Bush (R)
Vote Tally
Candidate
Number of Votes
Percentage of Total Vote
Albert A. Gore, Jr. (D)
2,170,418
51.28%
George W. Bush (R)
1,953,139
46.14%
109,154
2.58%
4,232,711
100.00%
Others
Total
Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received.
Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org
8
Economic Climate of Michigan
9
Ja
nu
ar
yAp 200
1
ril
-2
0
J
O uly 01
ct
ob -20
Ja er- 01
nu 20
ar 01
yAp 200
2
ril
-2
0
J
O uly 02
ct
ob -20
Ja er- 02
nu 20
ar 02
yAp 200
3
ril
-2
0
J
O uly 03
ct
ob -20
Ja er- 03
nu 20
ar 03
yAp 200
4
ril
-2
Ju 00
ly 4
-2
00
4
Number (in thousands)
Total Non-farm Employees in Michigan,
January 2001 – September 2004
4,650
4,600
4,550
4,500
4,450
4,400
4,350
4,300
Month-Year
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
Unemployment Rate in Michigan,
by County
11
Source: Michigan Department of Labor and Economic Growth
8.0%
7.5%
7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
Michigan
National
Ja
nu
ar
y20
00
Ju
l
Ja ynu 20
ar 00
y20
01
Ju
l
Ja ynu 20
ar 01
y2
Ju 002
Ja lynu 20
ar 02
y20
03
Ju
Ja lynu 20
ar 03
y20
04
Ju
ly
-2
00
4
Percentage
Unemployment Rate, Michigan v. National
January 2001 to September 2004
Time
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
Average Number of Weeks
Unemployed Citizens in Michigan,
Average Number of Weeks,
January 2001 – August 2004
20
18
16
14
12
10
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Month/Year
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
Repositioning of Political Parties
in Michigan
14
• Up to the early 1980s, the political parties,
including the Republicans, had conservative,
moderate, and liberal factions.
• With the election of John Engler, a conservative
Republican, in 1990 the Michigan Republican
Party moved further and further to the right. The
Democrats did move somewhat to the right, but
not as much.
• Therefore, Al Gore, a Democrat, won the
Republican stronghold of Oakland County
because its citizens did not necessarily shift with
the Republican Party.
• In addition, Jennifer Granholm defeated Dick
15
Posthumus for the Governor’s race in 2002.
Ground Campaign in Michigan
and Turnout
16
Number of Registered Voters in Michigan,
2000, 2002, 2004
7,100,000
7,050,000
7,000,000
Number
6,950,000
6,900,000
6,850,000
6,800,000
6,750,000
6,700,000
6,650,000
2000(a)
2002(b)
2004(c)
Year
Notes: (a) Data from October, 10, 2000; (b) Data from October 07, 2002; (c) Data from September 24, 2002 as cited in the Detroit Free Press.
Source: Michigan Department of State
17
Voter Registration and Election Turnout Statistics for Michigan General Elections for President,
1948-2000
Voting Age
Year
Number Voting Number Registered Population (VAP) Turnout (% of VAP)
1948
2,109,609
Not Available
4,041,000
52.2%
1952
2,798,592
Not Available
4,193,000
66.7%
1956
3,080,468
3,128,573
4,538,000
67.9%
1960
3,318,097
3,454,804
4,564,000
72.7%
1964
3,203,102
3,351,730
4,658,000
68.8%
1968
3,306,250
4,022,378
4,953,000
66.8%
a
b
1972
3,490,325
4,762,764
5,874,000
59.4%
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
3,722,384
3,978,647
3,884,854
3,745,751
4,341,909
3,912,261
4,279,299
c
5,202,379
5,725,713
5,888,808
5,952,513
6,147,083
d
6,677,079
6,859,332
6,268,000
6,510,000
6,577,000
6,791,000
6,947,000
7,072,000
7,358,000
59.4%
61.1%
59.1%
55.2%
62.5%
55.3%
58.2%
a"The
large increase in the number of registered voters in the state from 1970 to 1972 was the result of a March 1972 Michigan Supreme Court ruling which
declared that it was unconstitutional to purge the registration of a voter who had not voted over a period of two years as Michigan law then required. In effect,
this compelled clerks to reinstate the registrations of 'non-voters' who had been purged from the registration since 1968."
b"The large increase in the state's voting age population from 1970 to 1972 was the result of the 26th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution which lowered the
minimum voting age from 21 to 18."
c"Two events occurred in 1975 which affected the 1976 registration total: (1) the Secretary of State Branch Officer Voter Registration program was put into
effect in October and (2) provisions allowing for the creation of 'inactive' voter registration files were put into effect. Registration totals listed for 1976 to 1984
reflect only those registrations held in 4-year 'active' files."
d"The National Voter Registration Act, effective January 1, 1995, eliminated the initiation of any voter registration cancellations for inactivity and introduced
several new voter registration programs in the state, including mail-in registration."
Source: Michigan Manual, 1948-2000
18
Voter Turnout for Presidential Elections in Michigan, 1948-2000
(As a Percentage of Voter Age Population)
75%
Percentage
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
19
56
19
52
19
48
40%
Year
Source: Michigan Manual, 2001-2002
19
Voter Turnout in Wayne County, 2000 General Election
20
Voter Turnout in Detroit, 2000 General Election
21
Money / Campaign Finances
22
2004 Michigan Campaign Finance Report, Broadcast
Television, By Region
Media Market
Candidate/Campaign
Detroit
Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo
Lansing
Flint/Tri-Cities
Northern Michigan
Total
$5,512,200
$3,153,820
$2,054,000
$1,614,400
$1,817,002
$14,151,422
Not Available
$279,365
$67,725
$57,730
$150,455
$555,275
Total - Bush/allies
$5,512,200
$3,433,185
$2,121,725
$1,672,130
$1,967,457
$14,706,697
Kerry/Edwards 2004
$6,597,000
$3,456,205
$2,480,075
$2,038,335
$1,704,794
$16,276,409
Pro-Kerry 527s*
$1,472,995
$478,480
$420,000
$357,610
$157,060
$2,886,145
Total - Kerry/allies
$8,069,995
$3,934,685
$2,900,075
$2,395,945
$1,861,854
$19,162,554
Total - All
$13,582,195
$7,367,870
$5,021,800
$4,068,075
$3,829,311
$33,869,251
Bush/Cheney 2004
Pro-Bush 527s*
*527s are advocacy groups.
Note: Through October 25, 2004. Cable television not included.
Source: Michigan Campaign Finance Network
23
Media
• Bias in coverage
– Sinclair Broadcasting
– Errors—CBS
• Endorsements
• Ad Wars
24
Current Events
25
Wild Card Possibilities
• Debates
• Changes in the Iraq Situation
• Osama
– Capture
– Attacks
•
•
•
•
•
•
Employment and Unemployment Numbers
Gaffes and Leaks
Catastrophes
Oil price or Stock Market changes
Defections by Prominent Party Members
Media
26
The Current Outlook
The Horse Race
27
Likely voters’ choice for President in Michigan - 2004
Bush (R)
Kerry (D)
Nader (I)
Undecided
60%
50%
Percentage
40%
30%
20%
10%
08
/
08
/
13
-0
8/
16
17
(b
-0
)
08
8/
19
/2
6
(d
-0
)
08
8/
28
/2
6
(b
-0
)
09
8/
29
/1
2
- 0 (c)
09
9/
14
/1
4
(b
-0
)
09
9/
16
/2
6
(a
-0
)
10
9/
28
/1
2
(b
-1
)
10
0/
14
/1
5
- 1 (b)
10
0/
18
/1
8
(a
-1
)
10
0/
19
/1
8
(e
-1
)
10
0/
20
/1
9
- 1 (b)
0/
10
21
/1
(
8
- 1 e)
10
0/
22
/2
4
- 1 (f)
10
0/
26
/2
6
(b
-1
)
0/
29
(a
)
0%
Dates of polls (2004)
Sources: (a) Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; (b) Strategic Vision (R); (c) Lake Snell
Perry and Associates for America Coming Together (D); (d) American Research Group Poll; (e) Detroit News/Mitchell Poll;
28
(f) EPIC/MRA
Likely voters’ choice for President,
National v. Michigan, June 2004 – October 2004
Bush (National)
60.0%
Bush (Michigan)
40.0%
Kerry (National)
30.0%
Kerry (Michigan)
20.0%
Nader (Michigan)
r
be
to
Oc
Others/Undecided (National)
Se
pt
e
m
be
gu
s
Au
Ju
Ju
r
0.0%
t
Nader (National)
ly
10.0%
ne
P ercentage
50.0%
Month (2004)
Others/Undecided
(Michigan)
Note: Figures are an average compiled from several polls.
Sources: Democracy Corps Poll (D); Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll; American Research Group
Poll; CBS News/NY Times Poll; Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; Strategic Vision (R); Lake Snell Perry and
Associates for America Coming Together (D); Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; Newsweek; Time; International Communications Research (ICR).
29
50.0%
49.0%
48.0%
47.0%
46.0%
45.0%
44.0%
43.0%
42.0%
41.0%
40.0%
Kerry (National)
O
ct
ob
er
be
r
t
Se
pt
em
Au
gu
s
Ju
ly
Kerry (Michigan)
Ju
ne
Percentage
Percent of likely voters choosing John Kerry (D) for President,
National v. Michigan, June 2004 – October 2004
Month (2004)
Note: Figures are an average compiled from several polls.
Sources: Democracy Corps Poll (D); Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll; American Research Group
Poll; CBS News/NY Times Poll; Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; Strategic Vision (R); Lake Snell Perry and
Associates for America Coming Together (D); Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; Newsweek; Time; International Communications Research (ICR).
30
Percent of likely voters choosing George W. Bush (R) for President,
National v. Michigan, June 2004 – October 2004
50.0%
Percentage
48.0%
46.0%
44.0%
Bush (National)
42.0%
Bush (Michigan)
40.0%
38.0%
O
ct
ob
er
S
ep
te
m
be
r
ug
us
t
A
Ju
ly
Ju
ne
36.0%
Month
Note: Figures are an average compiled from several polls.
Sources: Democracy Corps Poll (D); Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll; American Research Group
Poll; CBS News/NY Times Poll; Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; Strategic Vision (R); Lake Snell Perry and
Associates for America Coming Together (D); Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; Newsweek; Time; International Communications Research (ICR).
31