Technical Briefing
07 January 2016
International Data Centre
Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive
Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization
Provisional Technical Secretariat
Vienna International Centre
P.O. Box 1200
A-1400 Vienna
AUSTRIA
Page 1
IMS Status Map
Current certified stations, all technologies
Red = Certified but not sending data
Yellow = Operational, sending data, maintenance ongoing
Green = Operational sending data no maintenance issues
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 2
IMS Station Status – January 2016
PTS/IDC
Station Type
Treaty
Certified
Sending data
Primary
seismic
50
42
41
Auxiliary
seismic
120
107
92
January 2016
Page 3
IDC Products
Description
Available
Data
SEL1
SEL2
SEL3
REB
Waveforms
Automatic (PS, HA)
Automatic (PS, AS, HA, IS)
Automatic (PS, AS, HA, IS)
Analyst reviewed (waveform)
upon receipt
02:36
05:36
07:36
<48 hours after data day
- 4 min
- 4 min
- 4 min
TBD
ARR
RRR
Automatic (RN)
Analyst reviewed (RN)
15 min after data receipt
<24 hours of data receipt
TBD
TBD
PTS/IDC
January 2016
re Post-EIF sched.
(Expected late Jan 7th)
Page 4
Regional Seismicity (2005 – 2015)
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 5
SEL3 events in the 24 hour period leading up
to the DPRK event
Events shown are between 2016-01-05 07:00 UTC and 2016-01-06 07:00 UTC
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 6
IMS Primary and auxiliary seismic stations
used in interactive review (preliminary results)
Primary associated
detections
PTS/IDC
Primary no detection
Auxiliary associated
detections
January 2016
Auxiliary not used
Page 7
Event Information (preliminary results of
analyst review)
Date: 6 Jan 2016
Origin Time: 01:30:00.52 UTC ± 0.29 seconds
Latitude: 41.3067 degrees North
Longitude: 129.0519 degrees East
Approximate Location : ± 9.1 km (214 km2)
Depth: zero (Constrained)
Body Wave Magnitude mb (IDC): 4.85
Number of Seismic Stations Used: 74
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 8
Reviewed Event Comparison
(locations)
REB event locations for 2006, 2009, 2013
Analyst reviewed event location for 2016
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 9
Event Comparison
(Reviewed event characteristics)
Final (Preliminary)
Stations Detecting
(Used in Location)
Approximate Accuracy
2006
4.1 (4.0)
22 (22)
± 20.6 km (880 km2)
2009
4.5 (4.5)
61 (59)
± 9.6 km (265 km2)
2013
4.9 (5.0)
96 (88)
± 8.1 km (181 km2)
2016*
4.85
77(74)
± 9.1 km (214 km2)
Year
Mb
* Interactive analysis results for 2016 are preliminary.
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 10
KS01 sensor of KSRS array for DPRK events 2006, 2009, 2013
and 2016 (top to bottom) – short time windows. Good channel
correlation for years 2009, 2013 and 2016.
2006
2009
2013
2016
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 11
NVAR01 Sensor of NVAR Array for DPRK Events 2006,
2009, 2013 and 2016 (top to bottom)
2006
2009
2013
2016
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 12
Accurate estimate of relative location and
magnitude for the 2016 DPRK test using waveform
cross-correlation
The IMS seismic data from the DPRK 2006,
2009 and 2013 allow to conduct accurate
relative location and to estimate relative
magnitude of the 2016 event using waveform
cross correlation.
Figure 1 shows that the 2016 test has been
conducted 650 m to north-north-west from
the 2013 event, with the accuracy of 100 m.
The relative body wave magnitude of the
2016 event is 0.1 unit of magnitude lower
than the magnitude of 2013 event
(mb(IDC)=4.9) and 0.3 units of magnitude
larger
than
that
of
2009
event
(mb(IDC)=4.5). The most accurate estimate
of the 2016 mb(IDC)=4.8.
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Figure 1. An example of relative location: the position of the
2016 event (black dot) relative to that of the 2013 event (red
circle). The location of the 2016 event is estimated using the
RMS relative (2016 vs. 2013) travel time residuals (see scale)
at 4 regional primary IMS array stations: USRK, KSRS, MJAR,
and SONM.
Page 13
Joint estimation of relative location for four DPRK
tests using waveform cross-correlation
1. For all pairs of four events, the relative location is estimated from the RMS travel
time residuals as obtained by cross correlation.
2. Average relative location is estimated for each event together with the joint
distribution of travel time residuals.
The distance between
2016 and 2013 in 670 m
when all four events are
analyzed jointly
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 14
Radionuclide detection system
As seen in past experience (tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013) the behavior of
detected radionuclides can be different.
PTS/IDC
Number of
stations
Treaty
Certified
Sending data
Noble gas
40
24
28
Particulates
80
63
59
January 2016
Page 15
Timelines from release to radionuclide detection
EVENT (release to surface
zero days to months)
Particulate
Noble gas
Sample collection
IMS station
24 hours
12-24 hours
Decay/sample processing
24 hours
4-7 hours
Data acquisition
24 hours
12-24 hours
Data is ready
3 days
IDC
PTS/IDC
January 2016
~2 days
Page 16
Status of Regional IMS Radionuclide Stations
06 January 2016
RUP56
RUP60
MNX45
RUX60
RUX58
MNP45
CNX20
RUP58
DPRK
CNP20
CNP21
JPX38
DPRK
JPP38
CNX22
CNP22
JPP37
Particulate stations
Noble gas stations
Station is sending data
Station working, has not sent data in 2016
Station is under repair / not operational
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 17
Source of meteorological data utilized in all ATM
European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts
(ECMWF)
US National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) weather prediction
model
•
•
Analysis wind fields only
Analysis & Forecast wind fields
ECMWF is accepted as the best
provider of global
meteorological data sets
Number of observations used
daily exceeds 6 million
These include 29 different types
of satellite observation
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 18
Atmospheric transport modeling assuming
release from seismic event location
Assuming continuous venting from underground event
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 19
Xe-133 distribution at JPX38 (Takasaki, Japan)
3.5
MDC
3
2.5
Abnormal
threshold
2
1.5
Level_C
1
Level B
0.5
Level A
10-May-2016
31-Jan-2016
23-Oct-2015
15-Jul-2015
06-Apr-2015
27-Dec-2014
18-Sep-2014
10-Jun-2014
0
02-Mar-2014
Xe-133 (mBq/m3)
LC
sample collection stop
Page 20
Follow-up
• Processing and analysis are continuing as per normal
• In addition information related to the DPRK January
2016 event is provided and updated as it becomes
available on the IDC secure web portal: (available to
authorized users in States Signatories)
https://swp.ctbto.org
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 21
PTS/IDC
January 2016
Page 22