TURKMENISTAN
No Boom
for the People
and is named after the mother of the country’s first president, Saparmurat Niyazov, killed along with her husband in the 1948 quake, which killed two-thirds of the city’s inhabitants.
The city now has an array of hotels including two in
the five-star category. There are major thoroughfares and
Turkmenistan President Gurbanghuli Berdymukhamedov
For decades, Turkmenistan was a poor Soviet backwater. But in recent years, led by new President
pictured last August during inauguration ceremonies
for a new Ashgabat building.
an international airport (also the “Turkmenbashi”), all of
them built in anticipation of an era of businessmen and
tourists that has yet to begin.
Now, in 2012, after the so-called “New Era of Revival”
begun under the leadership of the Turkmenbashi, and
which saw the transformation of the city skyline, the
country has officially entered the “Time of Power and
Happiness.”
This, at least, is the view of two-time president Gurbanghuli, Berdymukhamedov, re-elected in February of
Gurbanghuli, Berdymukhamedov, the authoritarian country has become a major player on the Central
Asian natural gas scene. Whether any of the cash flowing into Ashgabat will go to help a backward
I
by
Piero Sinatti
remember visiting newly independent Turkmenistan
in the early 1990s. At the time, it was a remote nation
with a population of five million sitting on some of the
richest global gas reserves on the planet, located between
the Caspian Sea, Iran, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and
Afghanistan.
Its capital of Ashgabat, population 700,000, seemed
like a shapeless gray creation left over from the shabby
Soviet outskirts, coated with the powdery sand from the
Karakumy Desert near the foothills of the Kopet-Dag. The
city, devastated by a 1948 earthquake, was rebuilt soon
thereafter.
I recall badly paved full and potholed streets with few
cars and many trucks. At night the city was nearly pitch
black. Housing was mostly late Stalinist tenements and
Khrushchyovka, cement or brick-paneled homes from
the 1950s. In narrow alleys were homes with no windows on the street, and behind them small, wall-enclosed gardens.
Even government housing was modest, compared with
the imposing structures in Tashkent and Alma Ata.
I remember visiting the dingy offices of the newly appointed foreign minister, filled with wary and laconic
Turkmen officials. A Russian diplomat sat at an empty
desk in a corner of the room, seemingly ready to flee the
country at a moment’s notice. Russians, Ukrainians and
Caucasians had all been stripped of their jobs and positions.
100
The only hotel for foreigners was four stories high and
had cramped rooms and dirty windows. The bathtub
taps gushed blackish water. Cockroaches scurried
around the bathtub. At the reception, the elderly European hotel attendants wore slippers and disheveled
clothing.
A new profile
shgabat, founded as a fortress city by the Russians
in 1887, has undergone radical changes. The city
now boasts modern skyscrapers and impressive public
buildings, with a mix of kitsch neo-classical and Muslim
architecture. The new presidential palace, made entirely from marble, is topped by a golden dome, surrounded
by colonnades, its grounds rich in constantly replenished pools of water. The central mosque, the Turkmenbashi (“Father of All Turkmen”), also has a golden dome
A
TURKMENISTAN
AREA
488,1 km2
POPULATION
4.500.000
MEAN AGE
24.3 years
RELIGION
Sunni Muslim
GDP
15,1 billion €
GDP PER CAPITA
2,773.8 billion €
GDP GROWTH
9.2%
INFLATION RATE
4.5%
Ap Photo
citizenry remains dubious.
2010 data. Source IMF, World Economic Outlook
east . crossroads europe
number 41 . april 2012
101
last year with 97.1 percent of the votes. In December
2006, he suddenly and somewhat shadily succeeded
longtime President Saparmurat Niyazov, who died on
Dec. 21, 2006 at age 66 after having ruled the country since its 1991 independence.
Before the collapse of Soviet Union, after a childhood
spent in an orphanage (his father died in World War II,
his mother in the earthquake), Niyazov was all but reared
in the context of the Turkmen Communist Party organization. He became party leader in 1990. When the country became independent following the Soviet collapse,
Niyazov transformed the Communist Party into the Democratic Party.
ritory to U.S. military bases in Central Asia.
Niyazov worked to maintain balanced relations with
Moscow, which remained his country’s largest trading
partner and the leading supplier of weapons to the weak
Turkmen army. Moscow also acted as tacit guarantor of
the country’s regional security.
Time of Transition
The New Renaissance
iyazov ruled country, the most outlying, backward
and poorest Soviet state, with a despot’s zeal. He established a personality cult and systematically repressed
of all dissent, exercising total control over media, police
and armed forces. His was a country that, like many others in the former USSR, was entirely unequipped to handle its unexpected independent status.
The Soviet legacy left Turkmenistan with an economy
dominated by a single large industry, natural gas. After
that was a weak output of chemicals, cotton and agriculture products, the backward raising of livestock and traditional handicrafts, including carpets and the weaving
of fine fabrics.
Most of the largely rural population was ethnically and
linguistically of Turkmen origin, with some Mongol and
Persian influences (Ashgabat is only 250 kilometers from
Iran’s second largest city, Mashhad). Most of Turkmenistan’s inhabitants survived on subsistence farming.
Consumer goods to the country’s few cities were and are
still imported.
Niyazov made few changed to the rural economy but
brought all gas production under his direct control, putting it the hands of a state-owned monopolist called
“Turkmengaz,” whose financial transparency was at best
opaque and relied on him for direction and orders.
Gas soon became the basis of his unlimited personal
power. Media reports outside the country suggested that
large portions of proceeds from gas sales ended up in off
shore family accounts in his name or those of his family
members.
Huge portion of the gas proceeds were also used as part
Getty Images / Afp / V. Oseledko
N
102
pon Niyazov’s death, Berdymukhamedov, a former
dentist, health minister and presidential protégé,
took over immediately. Much about the succession remains obscure. Some say Berdymukhamedov is Niyazov’s illegitimate son, since the two men have a marked
physical resemblance. Born in 1959, Berdymukhamedov
is officially the son of a prison guard colonel. The leadership change was made official after elections held in
February 2007, which gave Berdymukhamedov 89 percent of the national vote, a paltry figure compared to
those of his predecessor, who never failed to “win” near
total unanimity (Niyazov declared himself president for
life in 1999).
Early into his first five-year term, the now 54-year-old
Berdymukhamedov seemed a little like the Nikita
Khrushchev of Turkmenistan. Among his first executive
decisions was the removal of some of grosser personality cult monuments that Niyazov had erected throughout
Ashgabat, including the huge golden statue to the city
center. The statue rotated by day so that the face of the statue was always illuminated by sun.
He also repealed some of Niyazov’s more unpopular
measures, including public spending cuts, a reduction
in village medical facilities (the seriously ill were mostly compelled to get Ashgabat, despite distance and bad
roads), and a planned two-year reduction in compulsory education. He also repealed a plan that would have
abolished pensions for the elderly with children (Niyazov thought children should be compelled to ensure the
health and wellbeing of their parents, a staple in patriarchal societies). But Berdymukhamedov refused to concede an inch on civil and political rights, nor would he
give up total control over the media. Internet connections
are costly and difficult to obtain. They are also strictly
monitored.
Worse, he’s gradually replaced the Niyazov personality cult with one of his own. He’s put aside the huge gold-
U
of the lavish reconstruction of the capital, a project dedicated to the honor of his family (he again cited the Turkmenbashi legacy) and to the “New Renaissance” of the
country, which he identified with his person.
As he began his ambition project, gas remained under
the control of the Russian corporation Gazprom, which
monopolized the country’s pipelines and ensured that
90 percent of Turkmenistan total natural gas output
would flow to Russia.
Niyazov was able to hike the price paid by Gazprom to
his advantage. In 2003, the two states signed a 25-year
deal the called for an annual delivery of 50-60 billion cubic meters of gas to Russia. Even in advance of that deal,
Gazprom was still maneuvering to dictate pricing terms
and conditions.
Working to Diversify
N
iyazov soon came to a fundamental conclusion: The
only way take the natural gas supply out of
east . crossroads europe
Turkmen wearing traditional headgear.
Moscow’s strangling hands was for Turkmenistan to diversify its outlets on international markets.
In the 1990s, he began negotiations with Beijing for the
construction of a pipeline to China. A joint pipeline project with the Chinese was agreed to in 2006, during one
of Niyazov rare trips outside the country, which came only months before his death.
But with the completion of a short pipeline into northern Iran, which soon became a leading trade partner,
Ashgabat began the diversification process. Gazprom
longtime monopoly on the country’s gas riches began
coming to an end.
Niyazov chose a path of strict neutrality, which it made
official in 1995 at the United Nations. The choice was
welcomed by both Moscow and Beijing, since it meant
resisting pressure from the United States to open its ter-
number 41 . april 2012
103
devastated Abadan, which has some 50,000 inhabitants.
The Berdymukhamedov government tried concealing
the event, but Russian satellite TV, the only outside
source of information for Turkmens, had already aired
video of the explosion filmed by locals and posted to Youtube. For the first time since the country’s independence, protests arose. People demanded to know just what
had happened. But details provided by national media
were scarce and repetitive.
Officially, the defense minister was sacked and military officials deemed responsible for the explosions were
sentenced to long prison terms. Berdymukhamedov assured the country that Abadan was completely rebuilt as
soon as possible.
Suddenly faced with a tense situation, an unprecedented event in the buttoned-down country, Berdymukhamedov invited exiled representatives of the opposition to
en statue in favor of a network of towering posters that
bear his image and dedicate all progress to his good will.
In 2011 the country’s Assembly of Elders (“aksakaly”)
proclaimed him “Hero of the Nation” and determined he
should be addressed as “Serdar Akbar” (Great Leader) or
“Arkadag” (Protector). His book, entitled “Towards New
Heights of Progress” has replaced Niyazov’s book of cult
sayings, the infamous “Rukhnama” (The Book of the
Soul), whose study was made an obligatory part of citizenship and taught in the country’s schools. As if that
wasn’t enough, Niyazov ensured a copy of the book was
sent into orbit on a Russian satellite.
Abadan Blast
I
n Feb. 7-8, 2011, a series of potent explosions destroyed a large munitions dump in the city of Abadan,
located only 25 kilometers from the capital. The blast
return home and participate in presidential elections of
2012. None of them, he said, should fear arrest or persecution, though a number had been farcically convicted
of terrorism in absentia. Berdymukhamedov insisted he
would personally guarantee their safety.
2012 Elections
ew believed in the sincerity of Berdymukhamedov’s
invitation to return and little was done to reassure
the exiles of the government’s commitment. The more
well-known regime opponents in exile (including former
Culture Minister Geldymurat Nurmukhammedov, in Vienna, and former Deputy Prime Minister Khudaiberdy
Orazov, in Sweden) received no word from local Turkmen consulate when they asked how to obtain visas (let
alone reassurances of personal safety) in the event they
wished to return and participate in the vote.
F
The move was little more than a blatant propaganda effort to calm the waters in the aftermath of explosions, a
clumsy attempt to minimize its importance and divert
public interest. It may also have been a trap. Since none
of the exiles returned, the question is moot. Berdymukhamedov did not renew his invitation.
As a result, the Feb. 12 elections, like those held five
years before, were tantamount to theater of the absurd,
part of a face-saving effort to persuade a skeptical West
(which is in fact far more concerned about the gas than
human rights) that Turkmenistan has staged something
resembling a democratic vote, which was nonsense. After his victory, Berdymukhamedov said he intended to
transform the country into a multiparty state, another dubious promise based on past experience.
The vote saw the “Hero” face seven “alternative candidates,” two more than the 2007 vote. They were choLEFT Gilded statue of the late Saparmurat Niyazov,
taken down in 2005.
CENTER View of Ashgabat.
BELOW Incumbent President Gurbanghuli
Berdymukhamedov on horseback during
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number 41 . april 2012
Ap Photo
Ap Photo / B. Herman
Getty Images / Afp / V. Oseledko
opening ceremonies of the Ashgabat “Olympic Complex.”
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The China Card
ut the Berdymukhamedov’s natural gas policies have
witnessed notable successes. The country’s 2011 gas
output almost doubled and GDP growth was pegged at
nine percent. In recent years, Turkmen reserves also received a boost from the influential UK-based energy-auditing firm of Gaffney, Cline & Associates, which in 2008
and again in 2011 confirmed the country contained as yet
untapped resources.
The largest deposit, Iolotan-South, was discovered in
2006 and is located in the southeast of the country some
350 kilometers from Ashgabat near the Afghan border.
Add to that two more deposits at Yashlar and Minara, in
the country’s Mary province (they cover 3,000 kilometers in all), and reserves are calculated at approximately
26 trillion cubic meters of gas, or 70 percent of total Turkmenistan reserves through 2011. The entire underground
complex was named “Galkynysh,” or rebirth.
China’s entry into the market has been vital. Between
2008 and 2009, the two countries confirmed a bilateral
deal to build a direct pipeline from the Turkmen gas ter-
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minal at Semandepe to Xinjiang long the left bank of the
Amu Darya River that runs through Uzbekistan and
Kazakhstan before reaching entering the Chinese northwest.
The first leg of the pipeline (1,883-kilometers) was inaugurated in December 2009 in a joint ceremony that included Berdymukhamedov, Chinese President Hu Jintao
of Presidents, Uzbek President Islam Karimov and Kazak
President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
With the completion of the remaining three segments
planned for 2012-2013, the pipeline will soon start delivering 30 to 40 billion cubic meters of gas to China. This
has helped China adopt policies that will reduce reliance
on polluting coal.
In addition its Turkmen supply, China will receive 10
billion cubic meters of gas annually from Kazakhstan
and Uzbekistan.
Not only that, China’s state-owned Chinese National
Petroleum Company ( CNPC), which will operate the
pipeline, won the tender to explore and exploit the
Galkynysh reserves, along with companies from Japan,
South Korea and the United Arab Emirates. Turkmenistan already hosts between 3,000 and 5,000 Chinese
specialists, technicians and workers.
Overall, Beijing has invested about $12 billion dollars
in natural gas over the last two years, becoming Ashgabat’s leading partner and a key player in the Central
Asian energy market. The move has major geopolitical
implications and is likely to change the way politics is
conducted in the region.
Since CNPC joined with Kazakh KazMunay to build the
immense Kazakhstan-Xinjiang (Atyrau-Alanshankou)
pipeline between 2003 and 2009 that links Kazakh
Caspian Sea reserves to China, it’s fair to say that Moscow
has lost the upper hand in the region, and the decline began with Turkmenistan. A mysterious April 2009 explosion on the Turkmen gas pipeline leading to Russia evidenced strong disagreements between Moscow and Ashgabat on gas prices and diversification strategies.
t the time, Gazprom halted gas Turkmen purchases,
which resumed in December 2010. But the new annual volume was lower by 50 billion cubic meters that
the original 2003-2009 deal struck by Russian President
Vladimir Putin and Berdymukhamedov, with the annual flow reduced to 20-30 billion cubic meters.
A
east . crossroads europe
A woman votes during February
presidential elections in Abadan,
25 kilometers from Ashgabat.
tatives from those countries signed a preliminary agreement for the building of the
so-called TAPI (the acronym is the initials
of the four countries involved). It would
move Turkmen gas to each of the four states and reach the Indian Ocean. Like
Nabucco, the project enjoys strong U.S.
backing that dates to the 1990s. Tehran
has also Turkmenistan’s way. In 2010 it
complete a second pipeline from Turkmenistan to northern Iran with an annual
gas capacity of 8 billion cubic meters.
Whatever the criticism of Berdymukhamedov, it is clear Turkmenistan’s
importance has grown in the international arena. Unlike his predecessor, he often
travels abroad, meeting heads of state,
government as well as representatives of
large energy corporations. Market diversification, long an aspiration, has increased
the country’s bargaining power compared
to the Niyazov days.
But whether revenue received from exports will translate into projects aimed at diversifying
and modernizing the country’s backward and gas-dependent economy is an unanswered question. As it stands now, living standards, consumption level, wages
and salaries remain profoundly low, estimated at between $100 and $200 a month. The country is in desperate need of domestic investment.
Using the Niyazov legacy as a standard, there is no reason to assume the country’s newfound revenue stream
won’t be squandered or redirected so that it benefits only the country’s elite and powerful. Civil and political
rights, as well as freedom of the press, require the existence of a middle class that for now doesn’t exist. As a result, there’s every reason to believe that authoritarianism
and personality cult leadership is destined to endure in
the years ahead. "Democracy,” Berdymukhamedov is alleged to have said recently, “will be found not at the beginning, but at the end of our journey.”
Getty Images / Afp / Str
sen from among governing ministers, officials and ordinary citizens plucked from Soviet-style mass organizations. These seven did everything but speak on their own
behalf. Instead, they praised Berdymukhamedov and
spoke instead on behalf of their specific interests. None
expressed even the slightest reservation for the president. In all, they received 2.86 percent of the vote, a more
Niyazov-style tally. As always, total unanimity was
avoided.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) didn’t bother sending observers, since
the Paris-based group doesn’t consider the country a
democracy. Observers sent from Moscow and elsewhere
in the Russian Federation praised the vote for its fairness,
transparency, having given citizens the right to express
themselves.
The U.S. State Department had little to say about the
outcome, as did the European Union’s Foreign Affairs
Commission. Berdymukhamedov was fervently congratulated by Beijing.
A few days before the vote, the country closed off all
land borders and increased security checks at the Ashgabat, a full-fledged effort to keep mobile phones and other electronic devices out of the country.
Other players
eijing push on the new pipeline as well as its involvement in the Galkynish exploration moved the
EU and U.S. to revive a project that seemed archived,
namely the construction of the Nabucco pipeline, projected to run from the Caspian and South Caucasus.
Nabucco is intended to bring natural gas from Turkmenistan to Austria. Plans call for it to run 3,900-kilometers with a maximum capacity of 31 billion cubic meters
annually. It’s expected to cost some $12 billion and require four years, 2013-2017, to complete.
It would bypass Russia, which is understandably hostile to the project. Nabucco has won backing from Ashgabat, whose gas is critical to its success. But bank funding isn’t easy in a time of global financial crisis and recession.
Turkmenistan is also interested in forging gas deals
with Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. In 2010, represen-
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