Can conditional cash transfers reduce
vulnerability to climate change?
Evidence from Familia en Accìon, Colombia
2nd International Conference on Evaluating Climate Change and
Development, November 4-6, 2014 Washington
Marco Arena
[email protected] , [email protected]
Can conditional cash transfers reduce vulnerability to climate change?
Marco Arena
1
Author
• Marco Arena
UNDP P-CBA Coordinator, Fiji
MSc (Hons) Climate Change and international development
University of East Anglia
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
2
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Definitions
Research questions
Vulnerability traditions
How to measure social vulnerability to climate change?
Familia en Accìon: case study
Methodology
Results
Discussion (limitations and lessons for policy makers)
Can conditional cash transfers reduce vulnerability to climate change?
Marco Arena
3
Definition
Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) are programs that transfer cash, generally
to poor households, on the condition that those households make
prespecified investments in the human capital of their children. (Fiszbein et
al., 2008)
Progresa
Familia en
Accion (FA)
Case study for this
research
• g
Bolsa Familia
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
4
Research Questions
Can conditional cash transfers reduce climate change vulnerability?
1) Which notion
of vulnerability
is adopted in
this research?
2) How can
vulnerability be
quantified?
3) What is the
theory and the
existing evidence
that support the
argument for CCT
and vulnerability
reduction?
4) Does the
empirical evidence
from the FA
support the
previous
argument?
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
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5
Vulnerability Traditions
Research
Internal Factors
Starting Point
External Factors
End Point
traditions
Bio-physical
vulnerability to CC
Mitigation
Interventions
Adaptation
Intervention
targeted to
specific climate
impacts
f(v) = Exposure +
Sensitivity –
Adaptive capacity
Social Vulnerability
to Climate Change
Integrated
Interventions
Poverty and
vulnerability
reduction
internventions
Mainstreaming CC
into Development
CCTs, Familia en
accion
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
6
How to measure social vulnerability?
Brooks et al. (2003) identifies that a number of variables are correlated with decadal
mortality from climate realted events and create an index with them:
Education:
literacy Rate 15-24
Consumption/Well
being:
calorific Intake
Health:
population with access to
sanitation, life expectancy at
birth and maternal mortality
Social
Vulnerability
Index (SVI)
Gender:
literacy ratio
(female to male)
Institutions:
political right, voice and
accountability, government
effectivness
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
7
CCT & Vulnerability – Assumptions & evidence
Evidence and theory suggest that CCT might have an impact that tackles the
multidimensional determinants of vulnerability.
Health:
Better nutrition lead to better
health.
(Schady and Rosero, 2008),
Education:
CCT increases school
attendance
(Skoufias et al., 2001),
Consumption/Well
being:
higher expenditure on
food
(Hoddinott and
Skoufias, 2004),
Social
Vulnerability
Index
Gender:
transfers might prevent
gender discrimination for
school attendance
Institutions:
No impact
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
8
Vulnerability
reduction,
development or
adaptation?
SVI or HDI?
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
9
Familia en Accion, Case Study
• 1102 municipalities 2.6 million families.
In order to be eligible to join the program a family
must meet three essential requirements:
1. Be part of the lowest socio economic level
2. Have at least one component who is younger
than 18 years old
3. Reside in a village where the program is
implemented
Monthly transfers are done if:
-any children is enrolled in school between 8 and 17
years old,
-any children between 0-6 attends monthly health checkups.
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
10
Dataset
TOTAL Number of Municipalities
1102
• Panel Data 2001,
2003, 2006
• Treatment not
Randomized due to
political reasons
• Quasi Experimental
Analysis
• An accurate stratified
sampling technique
was used to have
comparable groups
Control
65
Treatment
56
SAMPLE
121
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
11
Methodology
Impact Evaluation of Familia en Accìon. Outcome variable: vulnerability index.
Measure
vulnerability
Design a vulnerability index that could be measured at the municipal level based on
Brooks et al., (2004)
Measure the vulnerability index before and during the intervention in treatment and
control groups at the municipal level
Estimate
the impact
Treatment was not randomized. Control for heterogenity in unobservable
characteristics using the Difference and Difference methods
Estimate the impact on the vulnerability index at the municipal level
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
12
Measure Vulnerability
Componen
t
Economic
Wealth
Education
Gender
Weight
1
1
1
Brooks
variables
X
Literacy Rate
15-24
FASVI
variables
Expenditure
for durable
goods and
assets.
School
attendance
8-17
Gender
Literacy
ratio
(female to
male)
Gender
Literacy
ratio
(female to
male)
Health
Infrastructure
0.5
0.5
1
Calorific
Intake
Maternal
Mortality
Population
with Access to
Sanitation
Food
Expenditure
Percentage
Population
of births in with access to
hospital
sanitation
• Identify variables measurable at the municipal level that are correlated
with those identified by Brooks et al. (2004)
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
13
Results
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
14
Results
Results
CT
FASVI
2002-2003
Time
-0.013
DD
-0.003
Time
-0.083***
DD
0.003
FASVI
2002-2006
CT
Food Expenditure
Index
2002-2003
Food Expenditure
Index
2002-2006
0.053**
-0.068**
0.009
-0.034
• No Impact on the Index
• FA has impact on food expenditure in the first year
• Vulnerability decreases overtime
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
15
Discussion
• Overoptimistic assumption about the multi dimensional impact of CCTs
• Education: Attanasio et al. (2005) found impact on literacy, but he controls
for anticipation effects that were not considered in this reasearch
• Sanitation: cash transfers might be too limited to justify improvement in
sanitation
• Percentage of births in hospital might be driven by cultural practices and not
by lack of resources;
• Vulnerability reduction decreases overtime in all municipalities.
Other interventions or macroeconomic factors such as growth might be the
drivers of this change.
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
16
Limitations
• Variables that determine vulnerability at the national level are not the
same at municipal level
• Some of the assumptions were clearly overoptimistic
• Vulnerability reduction and adaptation have some similiraties, but they
are not the same concepts
• Reducing vulnerability today would be not enough in the future when
trasformational changes will be needed
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
17
Lessons for policy makers
• CCTs cannot be considereded the panacea for all the dimensions of
vulnerability
• However CCTs are a powerful tool for policy makers to achieve the aims
for which they have been designed: increasing expenditure, schooling
and health conditions
• Other important determinants of vulnerability such as gender inequality,
infrastructure and access to health care require different, more targeted,
interventions
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
18
Questions
• Could we use conditionality in innovative ways to mainstream climate
change? (Tie transfers to workshops or trainings on climate change, use
of climate resilient crops. etc)
• Would that be unethical? Not effective?
• There are other ways to ‘climate proof’ CCTs?
• Do CCTs increase vulnerability by making households more dependent?
Canconditional
conditional
transfers
vulnerability
climate change?
Can
cashcash
transfers
reducereduce
vulnerability
to climateto
change?
MarcoMarco
Arena Arena
19
References
• Brooks, N., Neil Adger, W., and Mick Kelly, P. 2005. The determinants of
vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the
implications for adaptation. Global Environmental Change, 15(2), pp. 151–
163.
• Fiszbein, A., Schady, N., and Ferreira, F. 2009. Conditional Cash Transfers:
reducing present and future poverty. Washington DC: World Bank
Publications.
• Hoddinott, J., and Skoufias, E. 2004. The impact of PROGRESA on food
consumption. Economic development and cultural change, 53(1), pp. 37–
61.
• Schady, N, and Rosero, J. 2008. Are cash transfers made to women spent
like other sources of income? Economics Letters, 101(3), pp. 246-248.
• Skoufias, E., Parker, S., Behrman, J., and Pessino, C. 2001. Conditional cash
transfers and their impact on child work and schooling : evidence from the
Progresa program in mexico. FCDN Discussion Paper No. 123. IFPRI,
Washignton DC.
conditional
transfers
reduce
vulnerability
to climate
change?
CanCan
conditional
cashcash
transfers
reduce
vulnerability
to climate
change?
Marco
Arena
Marco Arena
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