National Tax Journal Vol 49 no. 3 (September 1996) pp. 447-59 TRA86: DID CONGRESS LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT? THE TAX REFORM ACT OF 1986: DID CONGRESS LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT? RANDALL D. WEISS * Abstract - The Congressional consensus for tax reform in 1986 grew around two major principles: substantial rate reduction and improvement in horizontal equity. Tax legislation in the early 1980s foreshadowed these principles, since it involved either rate reduction or base broadening (although not in the same package). This article describes tax legislation that followed the Tax Reform Act of 1986 in order to see what new principles, if any, emerged as important forces. The objectives of several of the current reform proposals appear to be inconsistent with those driving recent legislation and with the consensus likely to be necessary for fundamental tax reform. Thus, it may be a number of years before such a consensus develops. Depending on whom you ask, the system is either too favorable (or not favorable enough) to the rich or too complicated. Some people are simply frustrated with government in general and vent their feelings on the tax system and the Internal Revenue Service. So, politicians put forth a variety of proposals in response to the public’s dissatisfaction. In 1980, for example, President Reagan’s election campaign emphasized tax cuts; many believed that this issue played a decisive role in his victory. Yet, after tax cuts were implemented in 1981, people were still dissatisfied. Politicians believed that the public wanted a fairer system, and a five-year debate and significant political struggle ensued, leading to the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Discontent with the system seems to be on the rise again, perhaps spurring another cycle of tax reduction and reform. The recent Congressional reform proposals can be seen as a response to this discontent. Although many agree that the present system is burdensome to both taxpayers and the economy, little consensus exists as to which proposal promises the best solution. INTRODUCTION Taxes are never popular, and they are so complicated that people have a hard time communicating to politicians the actual source of their displeasure. Most people believe that taxes are too high, others believe there are too few (or too many) deductions or exclusions. * Just about ten years ago, on June 24, 1986, the U.S. Senate passed its version of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 by a vote Deloitte & Touche LLP, Washington, D.C. 20004. 447 National Tax Journal Vol 49 no. 3 (September 1996) pp. 447-59 NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL VOL. XLIX NO. 3 of 97 to 3. If for only a brief period, this high degree of consensus on what the tax system should look like was astounding. What led to the development of this consensus? How durable was the consensus? Are there parallels between recent tax legislation and the events leading up to the 1986 Act that shed any light on the likelihood of another round of fundamental reform? These are the questions this paper attempts to analyze. The paper devotes only scant attention to two key factors necessary to fully understand the shape of tax legislation in the last 15 years—the political process and the budget process. They are de-emphasized not because I believe that they are unimportant, but rather because they are outside the scope of this particular exercise. PREDECESSORS OF THE 1986 ACT Tax legislation from 1981 through 1984 revealed several Congressional preferences concerning tax policy. First, low tax rates were attractive. The Economic Recovery Tax Act (ERTA) of 1981 featured large individual rate cuts and indexing of brackets. After 1981, tax legislation usually was motivated by a desire to increase revenue rather than cut revenue. Yet, through the major revenue raising legislation in 1982, 1983, and 1984, tax rates were not significantly raised. This outcome reflected Presidential, as well as Congressional, preferences, of course, but Congress did not mount a major challenge to this policy tenet during this period. In the next section of the paper, I review the legislation that led up to the 1986 Act and emphasize that lower tax rates and broadening the base were changes with which Congress had considerable experience by the time the Act was developed. I then discuss what I believe were the two primary features of the Act that allowed the formation of the pro-reform consensus in 1986: substantial rate reduction and improvement in horizontal equity. With respect to economic growth issues, Congress was able to ignore many entreaties to save specific tax provisions that provided a boost to particular sectors of the economy in the belief that lower rates would themselves protect the economy from significant disruption. The next section of the paper briefly contrasts the principles of the current round of reform proposals to those of the 1986 Act. Although they apparently share objectives of low rates and a broad base, the approach toward equity issues is very different. Legislation since 1986 is then described in order to identify whether principles guiding tax legislation have changed in a way that points toward the emergence of a consensus around one or more of the current proposals. My conclusion is that we are at least several years away from an evolution toward a view that these proposals embody feasible Congressional tax policy decisions. Second, income tax base broadening and excise tax increases were the preferred means of meeting revenue increase requirements. The early 1980s provided Congress with extensive experience with the substance and politics of base broadening. Indeed, part of the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 was the repeal of base narrowing provisions that had just been enacted the previous year. This experience allowed Congress to evaluate the credibility of the horror stories that affected parties unfolded during the consideration of these cutbacks in tax subsidies. As a result, there was growing skepticism about the worst predictions of the results of these changes on the 448 National Tax Journal Vol 49 no. 3 (September 1996) pp. 447-59 TRA86: DID CONGRESS LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT? particular industries affected and on the economy generally. the appeal and feasibility of measures to lower rates, to broaden the base, and to deal with perceptions of unfairness— three key principles incorporated in the Act. Third, Congress began to demonstrate concern about the perception of unfairness that results from tax benefit transfer mechanisms and from excessive tax benefits. For example, safe harbor leasing, enacted in 1981, was explicitly designed to allow companies that could not use the tax benefits associated with equipment purchases to sell their tax benefits to other taxpayers that could use the benefits. This provision was recommended by the Treasury Department because of the knowledge that the combination of depreciation deductions and investment credit provided in the legislation was so generous that many taxpayers would exhaust their tax bases. Within months after ERTA’s enactment, the safe harbor leasing transactions generated considerable publicity, with individual taxpayers raising questions such as: why were they not allowed to sell their dependent exemptions to the highest bidder? Congress responded in 1982 both by repealing safe harbor leasing and by scaling back the depreciation and investment credit benefits. ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES OF THE 1986 ACT It is hard to overemphasize the degree to which horizontal equity was the driving force behind the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Publicity in the early 1980s about high-income individuals and large corporations that paid little or no tax was perhaps the most important force that kept the Act alive on its perilous legislative journey.1 Members of Congress were sensitized to perceptions of unfairness that can arise when items of income are omitted from the tax base. The sharp difference between economic income and the corresponding tax liability was the aspect of prior law that was so indefensible that even members who were not enthusiastic about the substance of the 1986 Act felt that they had to avoid being blamed for its demise. Of course, the features of the Act aimed at this phenomenon complemented most of the other principles (e.g., broad base and low rates), so that trade-offs were not usually observed. The only exception, of course, was simplicity, a goal that was not actively pursued except with respect to middle- and lower-income individuals without business income. Finally, the debate over the 1981 Act showed that discussion of vertical equity provoked controversy. Democrats had attempted, unsuccessfully, to challenge the shape of the rate reduction on the grounds that it was too generous to the highest-income taxpayers and provided little or no relief to those at the bottom of the income scale. Senator Bradley’s design of his seminal tax reform proposal of the early 1980s reflected the judgment that a broad consensus for reform would be difficult to achieve if a reform proposal provoked another such debate. The attack on perceived horizontal inequity involved restrictions on both tax benefits that allowed individuals and corporations with substantial economic income to sharply reduce their tax liabilities and on mechanisms (“tax shelters”) that involved the transfer of tax benefits from taxpayers who could not use them to those who could. The legislation immediately before the 1986 Act thus allowed Congress to test 449 National Tax Journal Vol 49 no. 3 (September 1996) pp. 447-59 NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL VOL. XLIX NO. 3 Restriction on tax benefit transfers included the passive loss limitation, which generally prevented individual investors from using tax losses on passive investments to offset earned income or interest or dividend income, and the kiddie tax, which limited the ability of parents to transfer assets to their children in order to obtain a lower tax rate on the associated income. On the corporate side, tax benefits that could be transferred through such mechanisms as the dividends received deduction and purchase of companies with net operating losses were limited. A desire to prevent corporations that reported income to their shareholders from paying little or no tax largely motivated the adoption of the corporate minimum tax. The tightening of the individual minimum tax had a similar motivation. Tax benefits associated with unusually low tax liability also were subject to restriction. Tax-exempt bonds, for example, were significantly limited, and pension benefits available to higher-income individuals were cut back. Industries perceived as often generating tax losses, such as real estate and property and casualty insurance, had various tax benefits tightened. Lower tax rates certainly were a major principle of the 1986 Act. In the last phase of the Senate Finance Committee markup, Chairman Packwood led the Committee through a “zero-based budgeting” exercise in examining the trade-off between lower rates and a broader base. He started by requesting that the Joint Committee on Taxation analyze a plan that repealed virtually all individual tax expenditures. He then established that the top rate could be reduced to 25 percent (he dubbed this the Brockway plan, after the Joint Committee’s chief of staff). Members gradually added back key tax expenditures to the plan, including deductions for mortgage interest and charitable contributions, the exclusion for employer health plan contributions, and the partial exclusion of social security benefits, increasing the top rate to maintain revenue neutrality, until the members felt comfortable with the trade-off. The Finance Committee reported bill had a top rate of 27 percent, one percentage point less than the rate that emerged from conference. In addition to generating enthusiasm among members of Congress, the substantial rate reduction also was a key goal of President Reagan and helped to ensure his support of the ultimate product. Finally, the most important business tax benefit eliminated was the investment tax credit. For much equipment, the investment credit tended to be associated with low effective tax rates. For debt-financed investment, low effective tax rates from liberal capital cost recovery provisions combined with the interest deductions associated with the debt financing tend to produce tax losses. Thus, the repeal of the investment credit also can be seen as being aimed at circumstances in which profitable businesses could pay little or no tax. Distribution tables were very much part of the 1986 Act political process. The rate schedules were designed to produce a small, mildly progressive change in the distribution of tax burdens for middle- and upper-income groups. The distribution tables for the conference report showed that tax liabilities for the upper-income groups were reduced by about two percent, while middle-income groups experienced a tax cut in the range of about eight to ten percent. (Significant tax 450 National Tax Journal Vol 49 no. 3 (September 1996) pp. 447-59 TRA86: DID CONGRESS LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT? relief for the poor, largely through an expansion of the earned income credit, was a deliberate goal of the Act; both political parties by then had acknowledged the failure of the 1981 Act to provide such relief.) There was not a broad debate about whether the degree of progressivity in the existing tax system was optimum public policy. Rather, the distributional outcome reflected a political decision, also embodied in the earlier Bradley– Gephardt tax reform bill, that a large change in tax distribution would add an additional layer of controversy that could threaten bipartisan support for the reform. Congress largely viewed rate reduction as the major contribution in this area. Claims by particular groups of substantial economic harm were ignored in many cases. Congress did not make any attempt to significantly lower the overall cost of capital, a goal which conflicted with the high priorities of low rates and horizontal equity.2 Finally, Table 1 provides a useful benchmark of the base broadening left undone during the 1986 tax reform process. The table reproduces a compilation, published by the Joint Committee in October 1987, of base broadening proposals that were part of either the 1985 Treasury tax reform study or the 1986 Administration proposal but which were not adopted. Excluded from this table are proposals for tax expenditures that even the 1984 Treasury tax reform proposal omitted for reasons of feasibility or political controversy, such as the repeal of the preference for qualified retirement plans or the deduction for home mortgage interest. Most of these items fall into four groups: employer-provided fringe benefits, savings incentives (pensions and life insurance), the deduction for state and local income and property taxes, and energy and mining industry provisions. The remainder are mostly miscellaneous industry-specific proposals; the major exception is the ill-fated rate differential recapture proposal that Treasury argued was justified by the rate reductions but that was never considered seriously by Congress. Similarly, the political agreement that the Act should be revenue neutral was a temporary device, also established in the Bradley–Gephardt bill, to isolate the tax reform exercise from Congress’s continual attempts to deal with the budget deficit. Indeed, the 1986 Act was unusual in that most of the tax legislation of the 1980s increased revenue. Certainly, many of the participants in shaping the 1986 Act had little doubt that Congress would enact revenue increases in future years. Some even expected tax rates to rise. For example, during the conference, the staff discussed the potential simplification that could have been accomplished had the Act eliminated all distinctions between capital gains and ordinary income, since they were taxed at the same rate for both individuals and corporations. A belief that rates on ordinary income could rise in the near future and that a capital gains differential would reemerge prevented that from happening. This table indicates that the remaining available base broadeners would be substantively and politically difficult for Congress to approve. Especially lacking were feasible reform measures targeted to high-income taxpayers that could be used as part of a revenue increase With respect to issues involving the impact of tax reform on the economy and on specific economic sectors, 451 National Tax Journal Vol 49 no. 3 (September 1996) pp. 447-59 NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL VOL. XLIX NO. 3 TABLE 1 ESTIMATED REVENUE EFFECTS OF UNADOPTED PROVISIONS CONTAINED IN THE PRESIDENT’S AND TREASURY’S TAX REFORM PROPOSALS, FISCAL YEARS 1988–90 (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) Provision 1988–90 I. Income Tax Reform for Individuals Excluded sources of income: Include a portion of employer-provided health insurance in taxable income ($10/individual; $25/family per month) Cap exclusion of employer-provided health insurance ($70/individual; $175/family per month) Repeal exclusion of employer-provided group term life insurance Repeal exclusion of employer-provided death benefits Repeal exclusion of workers’ compensation and black lung benefits Repeal exclusion of employer-provided dependent-care assistance Cafeteria plans: Cap cash option ($500 annually) Repeal exclusion for FICA and FUTA Disqualify dependent-care assistance from cafeteria plan exception Preferred uses of income: Disallow state and local income and real property tax deduction Disallow nonbusiness state and local personal property tax deduction Business meals and entertainment expenses: Allow 75 percent deductibility Allow 50 percent deductibility Limit temporary assignments to one year 11.6 16.8 8.4 (a) 7.7 0.2 4.1 3.5 0.2 52.8 0.9 1.3 6.6 (a) II. Retirement Saving Eliminate deferral of appreciation of employer retirement securities Repeal cash and deferred arrangements (CODAs) 0.2 14.6 III. Basic Taxation of Capital and Business Income Recapture of rate differential on accelerated depreciation 52.3 IV. Specific Industry, Tax Shelter, and Other Tax Provisions Restrict use of cash accounting for large nonfarm business Repeal cash accounting for farms with gross receipts over $5 million 0.7 0.8 Energy provisions: Repeal business energy credits; limit gasohol exemption Repeal percentage depletion for: Oil and natural gas (all wells) Oil and natural gas—all wells except stripper wells owned by independent producers Other minerals 1.4 1.0 1.5 Financial institutions: Repeal depository institutions’ bad-debt reserve deductions Repeal tax exemption of large credit unions 1.9 0.9 Life and property/casualty insurance: Limit life insurance reserve deductions; repeal exemption of certain small companies Limit property and casualty insurance company reserves Insurance investment income: Repeal exclusion of inside buildup (no grandfather) Repeal exclusion of current annuity income (no grandfather) Treat surrenders of life insurance as income Loans from life insurance policies treated as distributions Deductions for reserves limited to surrender value 0.9 0.5 0.3 8.1 3.7 0.1 0.7 0.2 State and local government debt and investments: 2.8 Repeal exemption for nongovernmental bonds 452 National Tax Journal Vol 49 no. 3 (September 1996) pp. 447-59 TRA86: DID CONGRESS LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT? TABLE1 (Continued) Provision 1988–90 Special expensing and amortization rules: Repeal expensing of conservation expenditures and farmers’ fertilizer and field clearing Repeal 5-year amortization of pollution control Repeal 84-month amortization, 10 percent credit for reforestation (b) (a) (a) Other specific industry provisions: Repeal rehabilitation tax credits Repeal special rules for returns of magazines, etc. Repeal expensing of multiperiod timber growing costs Repeal targeted jobs tax credit Repeal exclusion of Merchant Marine Capital Construction Fund Require employers to make nondeductible payments to employees who receive ESOP dividends Limit artificial losses (at-risk rules) 2.4 0.2 (b) 0.7 0.2 (a) (a) International issues: Possessions tax credit Repeal title passage source rule Other provisions affecting international income 3.7 1.7 4.3 Source: Joint Committee on Taxation, October 8, 1987. (a) Gain of less than $50 million. (b) Estimate not available. package providing a balanced distributional effect. (The deduction for state and local income taxes may have had a useful distributional pattern, but its proposed repeal proved very controversial and would not have allowed a significant reduction in combined federal and state marginal tax rates.) Thus, for meeting future demands for additional revenue to be raised without significant distributional effect, it should not be surprising that Congress turned to rate increases on high-income individuals. and a subtraction method value added tax; a national retail sales tax, proposed by Representatives Schaefer and Tauzin; and the so-called flat tax, sponsored by Representatives Armey and Senator Shelby, which is a value-added tax with a deduction for wages along with a personal tax on wages in excess of an exempt amount. In addition, Representative Gephardt has announced a plan to reform the individual income tax. In order to compare the 1986 Act with these proposals, I summarize their major elements: PRINCIPAL ELEMENTS OF CURRENT REFORM PROPOSALS Consumption as the Tax Base The value added tax, personal consumption tax, retail sales tax, and flat tax all use consumption as the base of the tax; the differences largely involve varying points of collection in the chain of production and distribution. All of these taxes share the fundamental characteristic of excluding from tax income from capital by excluding from tax, or allowing expensing of, purchases of In what ways are the current tax reform proposals inconsistent with the 1986 Act? Is what has transpired since 1986 leading to another round of fundamental reform? The key current reform proposals that have thus far been introduced are the USA tax, sponsored by Senators Nunn and Domenici, that includes a personal consumption tax 453 National Tax Journal Vol 49 no. 3 (September 1996) pp. 447-59 NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL VOL. XLIX NO. 3 capital items such as equipment, real estate, and inventory. Only the Gephardt proposal retains the current system of using income as the tax base. of saving (or capital income, depending on the proposal) to pay much less tax than other taxpayers with the same economic income but less of the excluded item. Although the 1986 Act retained consumption tax elements, such as qualified pension plans, that allowed some such divergence, strict limits were placed on any taxpayer’s use of them. Similarly, the expensing of all capital items prescribed in the proposals would increase the likelihood that many profitable businesses, especially growing ones, would pay little or no tax. Elimination of any devices to prevent high-income taxpayers from eliminating a substantial portion of tax liability would be a very significant change from the 1986 Act ethos. Comprehensive Tax Base All the proposals eliminate many exclusions and deductions and thus move toward a comprehensive measure of either consumption or income as the basis for taxation. Thus, they would repeal many of the provisions, which survived the 1986 act, that provide favorable treatment for specific activities, such as fringe benefits, home ownership, and state and local taxes. Progressivity The proposals differ in their treatment of the desirable degree of progressivity in the system. Only the USA tax uses the old Bradley–Gephardt formulation of attempting to keep the individual distribution by income class and the individual-business split of tax collections unchanged. The retail sales tax and flat tax would make the system less progressive, while the Gephardt proposal would make it more progressive. Further, several of the proposals would spur a debate about vertical equity by making the system much less progressive, especially with respect to the relative effective tax rates of upper- and middle-income groups.3 The biggest change would be caused by the retail sales tax, which would eliminate any personal tax from the system. A personal tax clearly is necessary to maintain the current degree of progressivity, since it allows taxpayer-bytaxpayer computation of the tax base, to which a graduated rate schedule can be applied. Replacement System The consumption tax proposals would entirely replace the income tax. In addition, several of them would eliminate other taxes, such as estate and gift, social security, and selective excise taxes as part of their plan. The proposals generally share the 1986 Act’s goal of keeping rates low by maintaining a broad base (with the exception, for the consumption tax proposals, of capital income). In addition, unlike previous discussions of consumption taxes, these proposals would not add another tax to the system. The principles reflected in most of these proposals contrast significantly with those of the 1986 Act. Perhaps most important is a fundamentally different view of horizontal equity. Inherent in using a consumption tax base is the ability of individuals with high amounts In addition to contrasting principles, the arguments put forth by the proposal’s proponents also differ from those made 454 National Tax Journal Vol 49 no. 3 (September 1996) pp. 447-59 TRA86: DID CONGRESS LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT? in connection with the 1986 Act. The sponsors emphasize economic growth as a prime reason to exclude capital income from the tax base. This view clearly differs from the 1986 Act view that low tax rates were sufficient to minimize the drag of the tax system on the economy. And, as described above, the exemption of capital income also is the source of the differences from the Act in the implicit view of horizontal equity. The 1987 and 1989 Acts were driven by relatively modest revenue increases required as part of those years’ Congressional budget resolutions; their net annual revenue increases in the first few years after enactment averaged $15 and $5 billion, respectively. The 1988 tax bill was a revenue-neutral bill containing base broadeners as the principal revenue raisers and eliminating some of the political and substantive “rough edges” from the 1986 Act. (For example, the 1988 Act repealed the much ridiculed provision requiring artists and authors to capitalize expenses related to their works.) The 1989 legislation also contained some revenuelosing provisions, including modification of corporate minimum tax provisions of the 1986 Act. The 1988 and 1989 revenue losers hardly represented a rejection of the philosophy of the Tax Reform Act, however. They can be seen as simply substituting new base broadeners for 1986 provisions that proved relatively unacceptable. Reduction of compliance burden is another argument emphasized by the proponents of current proposals. Although the 1986 Act did simplify the system for many lower- and middleincome taxpayers, it is fair to say that simplicity was not a major objective of tax provisions affecting business and high-income individuals. The next section of the paper reviews tax legislation after the 1986 Act in order to examine whether Congress’s recent actions reveal that its principles of tax legislation are evolving toward those consistent with the current reform proposals. The key questions appear to be: Is Congress becoming more amenable to a very different view of horizontal equity, to be justified by economic growth arguments? Is simplicity becoming a more important objective? Is a vertical equity debate consistent with the bipartisan consensus likely to be necessary for reform? In formulating the 1989 legislation, Congress had rejected a controversial provision that President Bush had proposed as a revenue raiser: restoration of a preferential rate (15 percent) for individual capital gains. The Act’s elimination of the capital gains differential had been an important tool in achieving a large rate reduction for high-income groups without reducing their average tax liability. Thus, the Bush proposal can be seen as the beginning of a challenge to the 1986 Act principles in several respects. First, using the then prevailing Congressional methodology, this proposal had a distinct distributional effect in providing disproportionate relief to the highest income groups. It was not accompanied by tax cuts for middle-income groups to provide distributional balance. Second, it TAX LEGISLATION SINCE THE 1986 ACT In fashioning the tax legislation of 1987, 1988, and 1989, Congress followed the pattern of the early 1980s by using base broadeners to meet the revenue increase requirements of these bills (even though the 1986 Act had already used up many of the easy ones) and by avoiding rate increases. 455 National Tax Journal Vol 49 no. 3 (September 1996) pp. 447-59 NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL VOL. XLIX NO. 3 reopened possibilities for significantly lower tax liability for those who received their income in the form of capital gains rather than ordinary income, although, of course, there is a big difference between a 15 percent rate and the zero rate contained in some of the current reform proposals. Third, it was justified as an economic growth measure. In contrast, during the 1986 Act design, neither the Administration nor Congress identified particular exclusions or deductions as particularly necessary to promote economic growth. Rather, the view was that if disparities in treatment were evened out and rates were low, any significant roadblocks that the tax system imposed on the economy would be removed. tax credit. These were included in a package that raised $10.9 billion in the first fiscal year in which it was fully effective. After extensive “budget summit” negotiations, Congress produced a tax bill with considerably larger revenue increases, averaging about $30 billion per year. Bush’s acceptance of this package meant his repudiation of his “read my lips: no new taxes” pledge of the 1988 campaign. Individual income and Social Security tax rate increases targeted on upper income groups, along with excise tax increases, were the major revenue-raising provisions. The income tax base broadening (other than a provision affecting life insurance companies) was minor, although it more than offset the basenarrowing provisions. The capital gains rate was not reduced as the President proposed, although the alternative capital gains tax resulted in the creation of a differential between tax rates on ordinary and capital gains income. The proposal to liberalize IRAs was not adopted either. The 1990 legislation marked a turning point in attitudes toward rate increases and distribution. Before the negotiations on this legislation, Congressional Democrats had been developing a set of “fairness” arguments concerning the effect on each income class of the economic policies of the 1980s. The general theme was that the richest Americans benefited unduly from these policies. One element of this theme was that the tax legislation of the 1980s, specifically the 1981 Act, had caused an unjustified reduction in the tax burden on high-income taxpayers. The program the Democrats developed to address these concerns included rate increases on these high-income taxpayers and tax relief to the working poor. Although reliance on excise tax increases for a large part of the revenue raising would have required some tax increase provisions aimed at highincome individuals in order to achieve distributional balance, Congress went further. According to the Joint Committee distributional table released after the conference agreement, the tax increase for taxpayers in the income category above $200,000 averaged 6.3 percent, while the middle-income groups had about a 2 percent increase. In addition, continuing what was started in 1986, a tax cut was provided to the lowest groups. Although this distributional change was only about half as large as that provided by the 1986 Act, it was quite significant given the smaller scale of the 1990 legislation. Clearly, the issue of the proper distribution of tax burdens In his fiscal year 1991 budget presented early in 1990, President Bush proposed numerous base-narrowing provisions. Not only did he renew his call for a lower capital gains rate (19.6 percent), but he also proposed the establishment of nondeductible, tax-free “back ended” IRAs, enterprise zone incentives, energy tax incentives, and a new child 456 National Tax Journal Vol 49 no. 3 (September 1996) pp. 447-59 TRA86: DID CONGRESS LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT? had been specifically addressed by Congress for the first time since 1981; ironically, awareness of this issue was probably increased by the extensive debate over the distributional aspects of the President’s capital gains proposal. distributional balance would have required, however, and made the system more progressive. However, the 1990 Act did not adopt a “pro-growth” approach that systematically narrowed the income tax base nor did it reveal a lessening of concern with the horizontal equity issues so important to the 1986 Act. Finally, there was no evidence that Congress was becoming more sensitive to the problems caused by adding complex provisions to the Code. Rate increases resulted both from a desire to be explicit about the impact on the highest income groups and from a dearth of base-broadening measures targeted on that group. Not only were the rates increased to a top nominal regular tax rate of 31 percent and an alternative minimum tax rate of 24 percent, they were changed in complicated ways that were difficult to understand. Hidden marginal rates were introduced through the personal exemption phaseout and limitation on itemized deduction provisions and the increase in the limit on taxable wages in the Health Insurance (HI) portion of the Social Security payroll tax. From a system which had only four brackets and in which most taxpayers could easily learn their marginal rate, the individual income tax changed to a system with many brackets, most of them hidden, in which very few people had the ability to calculate (let alone remember) their marginal tax rate. Effective marginal tax rates were increased substantially for the highest income taxpayers. For an earner affected by the HI change and in the range in which the personal exemptions were being phased out, the total marginal tax rate increased from 28 to over 35 percent. Throughout the remainder of the Bush presidency, the Administration pushed its capital gains, enterprise zone, and IRA proposals and added other basereducing proposals, such as an investment tax allowance, passive loss relief for real estate, an interest deduction for student loans, and a first-time homebuyer tax credit. Again, these represented the view that the tax system was an impediment to economic growth and that a specific subsidy was necessary to promote a particular type of activity. At the same time, Congressional Democrats continued to develop their fairness program. In early 1992, Bush proposed a number of business incentives in response to weakness in the economy, while Congress was ready to shape legislation that reflected its program. Although Congress agreed to many of the incentives proposed by the President, it added a number of items that later were incorporated into the 1992 Clinton campaign program and the subsequent 1993 Clinton Administration budget proposal. The tax bill sent by Congress to President Bush in March 1992 (and vetoed by Bush) included such items as an increase in the top individual income tax rate to 36 percent, a 10 percent surtax on millionaires, middle-class tax cuts, and miscellaneous revenue raisers flowing from the fairness theme, such as limits on deductions for executive compensation and club dues. The 1990 Act’s emphasis on rate increases clearly represented a movement away from the principles of the 1986 Act. However, it is not clear what alternatives existed, given the revenue requirements of the budget process and a desire for distributional balance. The rate increases went further than 457 National Tax Journal Vol 49 no. 3 (September 1996) pp. 447-59 NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL VOL. XLIX NO. 3 During the 1992 campaign, the Clinton program adopted many of the items in the March 1992 tax bill, including the individual rate increases and some of the revenue losers, such as enterprise zones, a small business capital gains exclusion, and a targeted investment tax credit. The embrace by Clinton of many of the pro-growth initiatives of the Bush Administration seemed to anticipate a possible attack, on economic grounds, on the individual rate increases. The actual budget package announced in February 1993 included other tax increases not mentioned during the campaign, such as an increase in the corporate tax rate, the elimination of the cap on the amount of wages subject to the HI payroll tax, an increase in the social security benefits subject to income taxation, and a broad-based energy tax. The tax package was largely designed for deficit reduction purposes; the final Act raised revenues by about $50 billion per year. As in 1990, the 1993 Act had relatively little base broadening, even more significant rate increases on highincome individuals combined with additional relief for the lowest income groups through an expansion of the earned income credit, and a relatively small corporate increase. Some of the base broadeners were included largely for their symbolic value, such as the restrictions on deductions for executive compensation and lobbying expenses. Revenue losers included further paring away at the individual and corporate minimum taxes, passive loss relief for real estate professionals, and a targeted capital gains incentive. In general, this bill was dominated by fairness considerations and economic stimulus concerns. Unlike 1986, however, vertical equity, rather than horizontal equity, was the concern. Largely as a result of the emphasis on vertical equity, the bill was very controversial and barely passed Congress. Interestingly, the major Republican tax package of 1995, contained in the vetoed budget bill of that year, did not repudiate or undo the rate increases of the 1993 legislation. Rather, the proposals concentrated on a capital gains reduction, IRA expansions, and tax cuts for families with children. A business proposal aimed at reducing the overall cost of capital, the Neutral Cost Recovery System retrieved from the Kemp–Kasten tax reform bill of the mid1980s, gained no support and was not included in the final package. Some base-broadening provisions (mostly business items) were included in the package to offset the revenue loss, although these appear to have been motivated chiefly by a desire to reduce “corporate welfare” in order to provide an appearance of balance to the numerous spending cuts on individuals that were part of the package. At present, neither Congress nor the President views rate reduction as a priority nor do either of them hesitate to propose new targeted tax provisions to address economic and social issues. Conclusions Has Congress loved the 1986 Act or left it? Congress loved it with only minor arguments until 1990. Confronting the economic pressures of the budget deficit, a lack of significant and palatable base broadeners, and the political attraction of a debate on vertical equity, estrangement began. The cooling of the relationship accelerated in 1993, and, at present, it is fair to say that a separation has occurred. Tax rate reduction appears to have little appeal, and base-narrowing proposals seem to be proliferating. Is Congress rushing into the arms of another fundamental reform? I think not; it is going in a different direction. Unlike the early 1980s, in which tax 458 National Tax Journal Vol 49 no. 3 (September 1996) pp. 447-59 TRA86: DID CONGRESS LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT? legislation appeared consistent with the reform that followed, tax legislation of the 1990s does not seem to follow the principles of the current reform proposals. There does not seem to be much attraction to simplicity, low rates, and a broad base. Rather, targeted provisions that narrow the tax base are quite popular. The vertical equity debate that would be raised by serious consideration of several of the proposals would probably be as divisive as ever and would be likely to overwhelm any possible consensus about a change that would already have many large winners and losers. Finally, there is no evidence in recent legislation that Congress is likely to adopt a totally different view of horizontal equity than that contained in the 1986 Act. Although the tax system does not seem to be so stable that it is immune from significant reform, considerable time will be required to develop a consensus that would support one of the current proposals. ENDNOTES I am indebted to Thomas Barthold for comments on a draft of this article. 1 See Conlan, Wrightson, and Beam (1990) for examples of relevant press reports. 2 See Birnbaum and Murray (1987) for examples of the dire economic forecasts presented to members of Congress. See Steuerle (1992) for analyses of the Act’s effect on the cost of capital. 3 See U.S. Treasury Department (1996) for an analysis of various current consumption tax proposals on the distribution of tax burdens by income class. REFERENCES Birnbaum, Jeffrey H., and Alan S. Murray. Showdown at Gucci Gulch. New York: Random House, 1987. Conlan, Timothy J., Margaret T. Wrightson, and David R. Beam. Taxing Choices. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 1990. Steuerle, C. Eugene. The Tax Decade. Washington, D.C.: Urban Institute Press, 1992. U.S. Department of Treasury. Office of Tax Analysis. “ ‘New’ Armey–Shelby Flat Tax Would Still Lose Money, Treasury Finds.” Tax Notes 70 No. 4 (January 22, 1996): 451–61. 459
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