OUTLINE OF CONTENTS
PART ONE
INTRODUCTION
1. The Oracle of Delphi and the Precautionary Principle
3
PART TWO
DEFINITION
2. Apollo’s Tripod: Defining Rights and Duties under the
Precautionary Principle
3. First Leg of the Tripod: Threat of Environmental Harm
4. Second Leg of the Tripod: Uncertainty
5. Third Leg of the Tripod: Action
6. Assembling the Tripod: Synthesis
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37
71
121
159
PART THREE
IMPLEMENTATION
7. Precautionary Measures
8. The Precautionary Principle and the Burden of Proof
9. The Precautionary Principle and Socio-Economic Interests
165
193
229
PART FOUR
CONCLUSIONS
10. The Pythia Replaced: Conclusions
285
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of Figures
Abbreviations
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PART ONE
INTRODUCTION
1. The Oracle of Delphi and the Precautionary Principle
1.1. Setting the Stage
1.2. Purpose and Method
The Research Question
Method and Use of Terms
Scope: On Environment, Health and Security
1.3. A Brief Preview
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3
6
6
10
12
17
PART TWO
DEFINITION
2. Apollo’s Tripod: Defining Rights and Duties under the
Precautionary Principle
2.1. Unity in Diversity?
2.2. Risk: A Framework for Understanding the Precautionary
Principle
2.3. Core Elements of the Precautionary Principle
The Precautionary Tripod
The Umbrella of Sustainable Development
3. First Leg of the Tripod: Threat of Environmental Harm
3.1. Threat of Environmental Harm
Types and Levels of Environmental Harm
3.2. Threshold of ‘Significant’ Harm
Formulations Lacking a Threshold of Harm
‘Significant’ Harm as a Threshold
The Meaning of the Term ‘Significant’
3.3. Threshold of ‘Serious or Irreversible’ Harm
‘Serious or Irreversible’ Harm as a Threshold
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‘Serious’ Harm
‘Irreversible’ Harm
Combining the Thresholds of ‘Significant’ and ‘Serious or
Irreversible’ Harm
3.4. Conclusions
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62
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4. Second Leg of the Tripod: Uncertainty
4.1. Uncertainty
Uncertainty Due to Lack of Information
Uncertainty Due to Complexity and Variability
Other Sources of Uncertainty
Quantifiable Risk, Uncertainty Proper and Ignorance
Uncertainty and the Scope of the Precautionary Principle
4.2. Asking the Right Question
Taking Action Because of Uncertainty…
…Or Taking Action in Spite of Uncertainty?
In Search of the Maximum Tolerable Level of Uncertainty
4.3. A Threshold of Proof
The Existence of a Threshold of Proof
The Height of the Threshold of Proof
Jurisprudence and Doctrine
The Threshold of ‘Reasonable Grounds for Concern’
4.4. Conclusions
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5. Third Leg of the Tripod: Action
5.1. Action
Some Observations on the Right and the Duty to Take
Precautionary Action
5.2. Where? – The Reach of the Precautionary Principle
What Geographic Areas?
What Issue Areas?
What Activities?
5.3. When? – A Closer Look at Thresholds
Is the Anticipated Impact Adverse?
Is the Anticipated Impact Significant?
Is the Anticipated Impact Serious?
Is the Anticipated Impact Irreversible?
Are There Reasonable Grounds for Concern?
5.4. How? – Effectiveness and Proportionality
Effective Action
Proportional Action
5.5. Conclusions
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6. Assembling the Tripod: Synthesis
The Right and the Duty of States to Take Precautionary
Action Defined
xiii
159
159
PART THREE
IMPLEMENTATION
7. Precautionary Measures
7.1. What Precautionary Measure(s)?
7.2. Typical Precautionary Measures in Practice
Precautionary Bans
Safety Margins
Precautionary Measures in the Context of Pollution
Research
Other Precautionary Measures
7.3. General Features of Precautionary Measures
Any Measure can be a Precautionary Measure
Guidelines for Choosing the Right Precautionary Action
Choosing Between One Risk and Another
The Duration of Precautionary Measures
7.4. Conclusions
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8. The Precautionary Principle and the Burden of Proof
8.1. Precaution and Proof
The Traditional Model Versus the Precautionary Model
8.2. The Burden of Proof in Practice
The Precautionary Burden of Proof in State Practice and
Jurisprudence at the International Level
The Precautionary Burden of Proof in State Practice at the
National Level
The Big Picture
8.3. The Burden of Proof under the Precautionary Principle
Doctrine
The Burden of Proof under the Precautionary Principle in
General International Law
8.4. Conclusions
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201
9. The Precautionary Principle and Socio-Economic Interests
9.1. Precaution, People and Progress
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Cost-Benefit Analysis as a Check on the Costs of Precautionary
Action
The Socio-Economic Rationale of Precautionary Action
Cost-Benefit Analysis as Incompatible with Precautionary Action
A Middle Way
9.2. Socio-Economic Interests in Practice
State Practice and the Rationale of the Precautionary Principle
State Practice and Cost-Effectiveness
State Practice and the Balancing of Interests
9.3. Socio-Economic Interests under the Precautionary Principle
Socio-Economic Interests under the Precautionary Principle in
General International Law
9.4. Conclusions
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PART FOUR
CONCLUSIONS
10. The Pythia Replaced: Conclusions
10.1. Bird’s-Eye View of Outcomes
Definition
Implementation
10.2. Putting the Outcomes in Perspective
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Bibliography
Table of Instruments
Legally Binding International Instruments
Non-Legally Binding International Instruments
European Union Instruments
Table of Cases
International Court of Justice
International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea
WTO Dispute Settlement
Arbitration
European Union Court of Justice
National Cases
Country Index
Keyword Index
Samenvatting in het Nederlands
Curriculum Vitae
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TABLE OF FIGURES
1. Scale of gravity of harm with the threshold of ‘significant’.
2. Scale of gravity of harm with two thresholds.
3. Schematic overview of legal effects related to nature and
gravity of anticipated environmental impacts.
4. Kinds of uncertainty: quantifiable risk, uncertainty proper
and ignorance.
5. Scale of likelihood of harm with the threshold of ‘reasonable
grounds for concern’.
6. Time and space as indicators of gravity of harm.
7. Proportionality (I).
8. Proportionality (II).
9. Schematic overview of legal effects related to anticipated
environmental impacts.
10. Scales and thresholds (I).
11. Scales and thresholds (II).
12. Precautionary rights and duties step by step.
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