LE BARO ÉCO
Viavoice – HEC
On the barometer’s 10th anniversary:
Special issue 2004 – 2014 - 2024 :
economic perspectives of French, British and
German executives
Under embargo until 06.00 on Monday 13 January
Viavoice
. Research & Consultancy
5 Park Place, London SW1A 1LP. + 44 (0)207 769 6836
www.institut-viavoice.com
Thomas Rice-Jones, Aurélien Preud’homme, Cyprien Venot,
Maïder Beffa, François Miquet-Marty
Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
The Baro éco, with the monthly Executive Barometer at its heart, was launched
ten years ago at the beginning of 2004, in partnership with HEC. From the start,
the idea was to gain better knowledge and understanding of a particular
audience, French executives, who are at the forefront of the economy and
therefore able to perceive its changes, and whose "confidence" is an essential
factor for the country's dynamism.
In this special issue marking the tenth anniversary of the barometer, Viavoice
presents:
- Current "executive confidence" poll, conducted in France according to the usual
monthly procedures;
- A review of 2004-2014 data;
- A 2014-2024 prospective study, replicated in France, Germany and the United
Kingdom.
For their loyalty, their participation and their interest, Viavoice extends warm
thanks to all the partners in this venture - the thousands of executives who were
interviewed over all those years, the readership of Le Figaro and the France Inter
audience, as well as all those who value and follow the life of this observatory.
Part One : Executive confidence in France since 2004
4 Synthesis of findings
7 Appraisal in January 2014
11 Indices of executive confidence since 2004
Part Two: Comparative economic perspectives of French, British and
German executives for 2024
16 Synthesis of findings
21 Current and future situations
25 France in 10 years' time
28 The United Kingdom in 10 years' time
31 Germany in 10 years's time
Survey methodology
Viavoice survey carried out for HEC.
Interviews conducted online from 3 to 9 December 2013.
Three samples:
- Sample 1 : 400 individuals, representative of the population of executives
residing in Great Britain;
- Sample 2 : 400 individuals, representative of the population of executives
residing in Germany;
- Sample 3 : 400 individuals, representative of the population of executives
residing in France.
Representativeness guaranteed by the quota method.
2
PART TWO :
Comparative economic perspectives
of French, British and German executives
for 2024
Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
The assets that may be hiding in plain sight…
On the tenth anniversary of the Baro Éco,
Viavoice and HEC wanted to produce a tenyear perspective:
- By comparing the economic opinions of
executives from France, Germany and the
United Kingdom on the current situation of
the three countries;
- By analysing the way in which executives
from the three countries envisage the coming
ten years, taking account of the main
strengths and weaknesses perceived for each
country.
This
comparative
analysis
reveals
perceptions shared by the three national
samples: Germany’s preeminence, France’s
structural difficulties, the United Kingdom’s
excessive dependency on banks and the
financial sector.
However, from one sample to another, real
differences of appreciation emerge for each
country over the ten years to come: whether
it is the future of the eurozone, the most
promising business sectors, social balance or
structural reforms to be implemented, the
executives of each country often express
peculiar opinions on their own country as
well as on the others. And these intersecting
views contribute visions that are less
established than it may seem.
A few months away from the European
elections and ahead of a probable referendum
on the EU in the United Kingdom, these
idiosyncrasies also remind us of the
importance of the European horizon and the
urgency of a debate on its common future
and on the advantages it can bring to each
national economy.
Germany at the top of the economic
chart, today and in 2024
European executives are in agreement on
German
economic
preeminence,
currently and especially in the years to
come.
They consider that the German economy
is currently the most dynamic – its
economic situation is judged positive by
81% of the overall sample, reflecting the
views of 91% of German, 83% of French
and 69% of British executives – but also
the most promising for the ten years to
come, since 74% of them think that
Germany's economic situation will be
positive in 2024 (of which 75% of French
and British executives and 73% of
German executives). These results
appear understandable given the health
of the German economy, which is driven
by exports. They also support the notion
of Germany's growing and durable
financial and diplomatic influence in a
Europe severely weakened after five
years of crisis.
However a note of caution must be
sounded: contrary to perceptions linked
to the British and French economies, the
European executives surveyed are
relatively less optimistic on the economic
health of Germany in 2024 (81% judge
the current situation to be positive
against 74% - i.e. a drop of 7 points - in
2024, when the economic situation of
France gains 24 points and the United
Kingdom's 12 points).
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Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
A downgrade for France?
Setting aside the German economy, the
comparison between France and the
United Kingdom can be read in the light
of the recent economic situation, which
was much more favourable across the
Channel (+0,8% growth in the third
quarter) than on the continent (-0,1% in
France): therefore the United Kingdom’s
economic situation is judged positive by
48% of German executives, 46% of
French executives and 52% of British
executives, whereas France’s economic
situation is deemed positive by only 35%
of German executives, 29% of British
executives and… only 10% of French
executives, the latter being much more
critical of their own country's situation
than their European counterparts. This
figure reveals a total disymmetry
between German confidence - with 91%
of executives stating they are confident
regarding their country’s economy - and
French despondence, where this figure
plummets to 10%.
The "French paradox": German and
British executives are more confident in
France's future than French executives
themselves
Specifically, our neighbours even appear
relatively confident about France in the
long term:
- Whereas only 41% of French executives
are confident about the French economy
(compared with 63% for the British
economy), German executives place our
economic potential over 10 years at a
near similar level as that of our AngloSaxon neighbour (53% for the United
Kingdom and 48% for France);
- Similarly, 67% of British executives are
optimistic about their own country,
compared with 57% about France (proof
that "French bashing" is paradoxically
more prized in France than in Britain,
and this despite the occasionally
provocative media coverage).
These findings therefore raise two major
questions:
- Why are French executives more
pessimistic about their own country than
their European counterparts?
- What are the criteria (which we French
appear unable to see) that form the basis
for British and German optimism about
France?
Unflattering as they may be for the
French economy, these comparative
perceptions become blurred when one
considers the perspectives of European
executives in 10 years' time: 49% of the
overall sample estimate that France’s
economic situation will be good in 2024,
against 61% for the United Kingdom,
and 74 % for Germany.
5
Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
The French economy in 2024 as seen by
the French: between innovation and
lack of voluntarism
When asked about France’s strengths
and weaknesses in the coming ten years,
European executives have diverging
views according to their nationality.
For French executives, our comparative
strengths rest on a trio made up of
innovation and R&D, the tourism sector
and, to a lesser extent, some very
competitive areas of our industry such as
aerospace (sustained by Airbus’s record
sales) and energy (Total, EDF, GDFSuez, etc.). Conversely, it seems France’s
growth is slowed down by an overly
defeatist and individualistic frame of
mind, a purchasing power that is too
weak (notably in the current fiscal
context) and a social system that is too
generous, whether it be welfare benefits
or employment law (pensions, 35-hour
week, etc.).
French potential as seen by the
Germans and the British: industrial
renewal, agribusiness and soft power
The perceptions of German and British
executives on France are at the same
time more exacting and more optimistic
in the long term. While Britons draw
attention to the French social system and
ceaseless labour disputes, and the
Germans deplore the fall in industrial
production, foreign executives largely
outnumber the French in highlighting
comparative major advantages. These
are the high potential industrial sectors
(aerospace and energy, but also
automotive for a number of German
executives, and this despite the
difficulties encountered by French
manufacturers), mentioned by 26% of
German and 18% of British executives
(compared with only 13% of French
executives) and the agricultural and food
processing sector, mentioned by 23% of
British and 18% of German executives
but just 4% of French executives. To a
lesser extent, there are also more
Germans and Britons who put forward
France's competitiveness, its geopolitical
influence (within the EU but especially
worldwide, following the African
interventions and the negotiations
conducted within the UN framework)
and indeed its central position within the
eurozone, with its potential attraction for
multinationals wanting to expand into
the European market.
The German powerhouse fuelled by
the breadth of its industry, the high
competitiveness of its products and
strong collective values
According to the European executives
surveyed, Germany should retain a
certain amount of leadership in Europe
thanks to its main strengths that are
acknowledged worldwide:
- Efficient and formidably competitive
industry and industrial structure (large
corporations and SME), relying on fastgrowing
sectors
(high-end
car
manufacturing, mechanical engineering,
chemistry, etc.) ;
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Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
- High competitiveness linked to low
labour cost (even if the implementation
of a minimum wage is a concern for
some German executives in the long
term), high capacity for innovation, high
quality vocational training and also
world-renowned production quality;
- Finally, it seems, in particular to French
executives, that German momentum is
based also on collective values and the
search for a consensus (be it political,
between both sides of industry…) which
is stronger in Germany than in its
European partners, especially France.
But between an ageing population and
support to the eurozone countries, the
German economy will be highly
dependent on its European neighbours
For all that, Germany’s future is not
without handicaps according to the
perspectives of German, British and
French executives, even if opinions
diverge more on this score:
- The more eurosceptic British executives
look particularly unfavourably on the
risks posed to the German economy by
the euro’s weakness and the debts of
southern European countries (Greece,
Spain, Italy, Portugal…), with 44% of
mentions (compared with only 8% of
German executives and 6% of French
executives);
- Conversely, French executives are
concerned about the demographic
changes occurring in Germany, which is
faced with one of the lowest birth rates
in Europe; in the long term these
changes could not only threaten the
financing of pensions and dependency
needs of an ageing population but also
paradoxically engender labour issues at
the centre of a continent still largely
affected by unemployment. While this
demographic risk is mentioned less by
German executives themselves (14% of
mentions compared with 43% for the
French), a greater number of them are
more concerned about labour shortage
than unemployment in the future: proof,
if any were needed, of growing disquiet
about this issue.
- Finally, beyond the comparative
advantages produced by the labour
market reforms initiated by Chancellor
Schröder (Hartz IV), German executives
also point to induced risks in the social
situation, whether it be the development
of inequalities, the low level of small
pensions and problems of access to care,
which will need to be accompanied by
new social policies in the years to come.
Trapped between the European risks, the
need for a skilled workforce and weak
domestic demand which renders it
highly reliant on exports, Germany is
therefore likely, in the eyes of European
executives, to become increasingly
dependent on its direct (eurozone,
Eastern European countries) or more
distant
environment
(emerging
countries) in the years to come. A
sizeable challenge, that nevertheless
remains decidedly within the reach of
the European powerhouse, if the
German economy retains the advantages
that it has managed to build over the
past decade.
7
Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
The British economy faced with its
paradoxes: isolationism or international
openness, banks and financial risks
the close ties that exist between the
country and its former colonies (the
United States and the Commonwealth).
European executives often consider the
United Kingdom’s economic situation to
be paradoxical, with robust strengths
that may also at times turn out to be
weaknesses for the future of the British
economy:
- While on the one hand, labour cost,
flexibility and freedom of enterprise in
Britain are commended by French
executives
as
fantastic
business
opportunities, public investments seem,
on the other hand, to be lacking,
especially education and infrastructure
policies.
- The banking sector, mentioned by 26%
of German, 20% of British and 18% of
French executives as the main advantage
of the United Kingdom, is also
considered a problem by a substantial
number of European executives who
point out the weakly diversified British
economy (32% of German executives
deplore the absence of industries of the
future) but also, five years on from the
2008 financial crisis, the systemic risks
induced by an excessively "financial"
economy;
- While they readily consider the pound
sterling
and
British
monetary
sovereignty to be a strength that allows
better steering of the economy (as well as
the fact of being decoupled from the
economies of southern Europe), 35% of
French executives and 16% of German
executives view in a more negative light
the progressive isolation of the British
within the EU, and indeed the risk of a
final exit if a referendum does take place
in the months to come. Such a
development could ultimately exclude
the United Kingdom from a large
number of opportunities on the
European market, or even cause it to lose
its influence in the world, even though
today it is perceived as highly outwardlooking by virtue of its international
investments, and also because of the
universality of the English language and
In the years to come the United
Kingdom will have choices to make
between the financialisation of its
economy
and
re-industrialisation,
isolationism and interdependence, and
between liberalisation and social needs.
And weighing up these choices could
have a major impact on the economic
perspectives of tomorrow.
These comparative and prospective
elements of the three main European
economies as seen by executives expose
the relativity of national perceptions on
each of these countries and the factors of
change during the next decade. While
Germany seems capable of retaining
economic preeminence, the lines of force
of the three countries reveal themselves
to be less established than they seem.
For French executives who are readily
disillusioned, the European economic
horizon and its future, which are too
often neglected, offer reasons to be
hopeful.
8
CURRENT AND FUTURE
SITUATIONS
Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
Opinions on current economic situation
Would you say that the economic situation of each of the following countries is
currently…
Very good
Fairly good
Fairly bad
Very bad
No response
France’s current economic situation as viewed by…
Sub-total "Good" 10 %
… French executives
27%
61%
10%
2%
Sub-total "Good" 29 %
… British executives
2%
11%
47%
27%
13%
Sub-total "Good" 35 %
… German executives
4%
12%
48%
31%
5%
The United Kingdom’s economic situation as viewed by…
Sub-total "Good" 46 %
… French executives
3%
3% 9%
42%
43%
Sub-total "Good" 52 %
… British executives
5%
… German executives
6%
6% 1%
41%
47%
Sub-total "Good" 48 %
4%
44%
42%
4%
Germany’s current economic situation as viewed by…
Sub-total "Good" 83 %
… French executives
11% 2% 4%
66%
17%
Sub-total "Good" 69 %
… British executives
17%
21%
52%
2%8%
Sub-total "Good" 91 %
… German executives
23%
68%
8% 1%
10
Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
Economic situation expected in 2024
Would you say that, in ten years’ time, the economic situation of each of the following
countries will be …
Very good
Fairly good
Fairly bad
Very bad
No response
France’s economic situation in 10 years’ time as viewed by…
Sub-total "Good" 41 %
… French executives
3%
10%
15%
34%
38%
Sub-total "Good" 57 %
… British executives
6% 13%
24%
52%
5%
Sub-total "Good" 48 %
… German executives
5%
13%
34%
43%
5%
The United Kingdom’s economic situation in 10 years as viewed by…
Sub-total "Good" 63 %
… French executives
4% 14%
19%
54%
9%
Sub-total "Good" 67 %
… British executives
21%
55%
12%
5% 7%
Sub-total "Good" 53 %
… German executives
10% 5%
32%
46%
7%
Germany’s economic situation in 10 years as viewed by…
Sub-total "Good" 75 %
… French executives
53%
22%
11% 3% 11%
Sub-total "Good" 75 %
… British executives
51%
24%
14% 1%10%
Sub-total "Good" 73 %
… German executives
18%
55%
20%
4% 3%
11
Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
Summary: economic perspectives of European executives
for France, the United Kingdom and Germany
Perceived situation for France…
In 2014
In 2024
(% "Good" economic situation)
49% ▲
25%
41%
57%
35%
29%
48%
10%
For all executives
For French executives
For British executives
For German executives
In 2014
Perceived situation for the UK…
In 2024
(% "Good" economic situation)
49%
61% ▲
For all executives
46%
63%
For French executives
52%
67%
For British executives
Perceived situation for Germany…
In 2014
(% "Good" economic situation)
81%
74% ▼
For all executives
83%
75%
For French executives
69% 75%
For British executives
48% 53%
For German executives
In 2024
91%
73%
For German executives
12
FRANCE IN 10 YEARS’ TIME
Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
France’s strengths in 10 years’ time
In your opinion, what will France’s economic strengths be in 10 years’ time? *
% of mentions by…
French executives
British executives
Technology, innovation, research and
development
German executives
20%
5%
6%
16%
18%
17%
Tourism
13%
Industry (notably aerospace, energy and
automotive)
Demography: high birth rate, youth
Productivity and quality of production
Quality of infrastructure and public services
(transport, health…)
8%
4%
3%
6%
1%
1%
5%
6%
1%
4%
3%
5%
Luxury sector
4%
Agriculture, wine, food processing
18%
23%
4%
5%
6%
Services and trade sector
3%
Eurozone, geographic situation and influence
of the country in Europe and the world
7%
Green economy, renewable energy
0%
0%
Diversified economy
0%
Exports and international competitiveness
26%
9%
2%
2%
Skilled workers, quality of education and
vocational training
18%
9%
3%
3%
2%
1%
4%
6%
(*) Open question,
unprompted responses
14
Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
France's weaknesses in 10 years' time
In your opinion, what will France’s economic weaknesses be in 10 years’ time? *
% of mentions by…
French executives
British executives
Mindset: pessimism, lack of collective spirit,
opposition to change…
Weak purchasing power and excessive taxation
11%
5%
10%
9%
Over-generous social system (35-hour week,
pensions, unemployment, welfare benefits)
Too high labour costs and social charges
8%
4%
Too heavy administrative and regulatory
burden, too much state interference
5%
Barriers to international openness (foreign
language competence, perceived arrogance…)
11%
7%
8%
6%
Deindustrialisation, fall in production
Low competitiveness, negative trade balance
9%
5%
Debt and public deficit
Lack of social dialogue, industrial disputes
10%
9%
10%
8%
High level of unemployment
Education and training problems
16%
9%
6%
3%
Political situation, government choices
Demography: an ageing population
12%
6%
7%
2%
German executives
9%
23%
4%
1%
2%
1%
4%
4%
3%
15%
6%
3%
2%
2%
9%
7%
6%
(*) Open question,
unprompted responses
15
GERMANY IN 10 YEARS’ TIME
Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
Germany's strengths in 10 years’ time
In your opinion, what will Germany’s economic strengths be in 10 years’ time? *
% of mentions by…
German executives
British executives
32%
Industry, industrial structure (notably
automotive, mech. engineering, chemistry...)
22%
Technology, innovation, research and
development
10%
6%
Services and trade sector
3%
1%
1%
Values, mentality, day-to-day motivation
Quality infrastructure
Low labour cost and genuine flexibility
1%
2%
7%
6%
3%
0%
2%
2%
0%
Dynamism, growth and low level of
unemployment
Eurozone, geographic situation and influence
of the country in Europe
2%
Constructive social dialogue, efficient and
consensual political decisions
7%
8%
3%
5%
5%
2%
Budget rigour, limited debt and public deficit
15%
6%
9%
5%
Skilled workers, quality of education and
vocational training
Green economy, renewable energy and energy
efficiency
39%
15%
10%
12%
Exports and international competitiveness
Productivity and quality of production
French executives
7%
6%
5%
1%
1%
0%
9%
8%
7%
7%
8%
(*) Open question,
unprompted responses
17
Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
Germany's weaknesses in 10 years' time
In your opinion, what will Germany’s economic weaknesses be in 10 years’ time? *
% of mentions by…
German executives
Lack of social policies (inequalities, access to
healthcare, low pensions…)
British executives
15%
0%
8%
14%
16%
Demography: ageing population, low birth rate
Labour shortage
French executives
43%
9%
0%
4%
8%
6%
The euro and European debt burden
44%
8%
6%
10%
Weak domestic demand (low wages, austerity)
Unemployment and job insecurity
4%
The political situation, government choices
0%
0%
Education and training problems
0%
0%
Potential increase of labour cost (introduction
of a minimum wage in 2014)
0%
8%
8%
7%
6%
5%
5%
5%
9%
3%
Trade balance, excessive reliance on exports
5%
8%
3%
Competition from countries east of the EU or
emerging countries, outsourcing risk
Services and trade sector
0%
0%
Excessive energy dependency
0%
Hegemony in the eurozone weakening its
trade partners
0%
4%
4%
4%
10%
10%
(*) Open question,
unprompted responses
18
THE UNITED KINGDOM IN 10
YEARS' TIME
Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
The United Kingdom's strengths in 10 years’ time
In your opinion, what will the United Kingdom’s economic strengths be in 10 years’ time? *
% of mentions by…
British executives
German executives
French executives
20%
Financial sector, banks, the City
18%
Services and trade sector
11%
Industry (notably aerospace, pharmaceuticals
and new technologies)
3%
8%
9%
7%
0%
Construction
0%
0%
Low labour cost and flexibility
0%
18%
4%
Exports and international competitiveness
3%
3%
2%
0%
1%
0%
10%
5%
5%
Dynamism, growth, low level of
unemployment
15%
6%
International openness (foreign investments,
Commonwealth, English language)
Liberalism, freedom of enterprise
9%
7%
The pound sterling and degree of autonomy
vis-à-vis the EU
Favourable taxation system
20%
3%
Technology, innovation, research and
development
Tourism
17%
9%
4%
26%
9%
13%
7%
5%
9%
6%
9%
(*) Open question,
unprompted responses
20
Special 10th anniversary edition of the "Baro éco" 2004 – 2014 – 2024
The United Kingdom's weaknesses in 10 years' time
In your opinion, what will the United Kingdom’s economic weaknesses be in 10 years’ time?
*
% of mentions by…
British executivess
German executives
16%
Lack of industry, economy not productive
enough
Political situation, government choices
Too many social policies and too much public
spending
7%
11%
0%
0%
11%
10%
9%
Education and training problems
7%
8%
8%
7%
0%
5%
Social inequalities and social climate
Inflation and its consequences on purchasing
power
Political, economic and monetary isolation, risk
of leaving the EU
6%
2%
1%
6%
Financial risks and banking sector problems
Impact of European policies and eurozone crisis
10%
5%
3%
Lack of public services and infrastructure
Debt and public deficit
32%
15%
4%
2%
Unemployment and job insecurity
Demography: ageing population, low birth rate
French executives
8%
8%
4%
3%
3%
3%
8%
16%
3%
3%
3%
2%
16%
35%
(*) Open question,
unprompted responses
21
"Reality does not forgive contempt." Joris-Karl Huysmans
The recent Viavoice polls carried out for
HEC, the French CCIs, Libération, Le Monde, Le Figaro, Les Echos, France Inter and France Info
may be consulted at www.institut-viavoice.com
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