DPI-322-PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Littauer – 130
January 4 – 15, 2016
2:00 – 5:00 PM
Dr. Elaine Kamarck
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: 617-480-1946
Office Hours: Daily Except for Friday, January 8
5:30 – 7:00 PM
Faculty Assistant: Derya Honça
Phone: 617-495-1923
[email protected]
Introduction:
In a nation where there are hundreds of separate state and local election
contests every year, presidential elections are unique; they are the only truly
national elections. They differ from other American elections and from elections in
other democracies in significant ways.
This course will deal with the structure, history and significance of
presidential elections. The first week will be devoted to the modern nomination
system and its evolution. The second week will be devoted to the presidential
general election and the impact of elections on governance.
Readings for the course will draw upon history, political science and
contemporary news and analysis. The course will also make extensive use of video
archives. Because this course is being offered during an election year, a portion of
each class will be devoted to the events of the week and students will be expected to
read a national newspaper every day in addition to the course reading.
International students are encouraged to take the course. Dr. Kamarck will
provide extensive office hours for all students including the international students.
Course Work:
There will be 2 assignments in this course.
1)
The first assignment will involve a trip to New Hampshire to attend
one or more events leading up to the New Hampshire primary
(assuming it is held on January 12 or 19.) Students will be expected
to return from this trip and hand in a short power point
presentation putting what they have seen in the context of our first
week of work on the presidential nomination process.
2)
Students will be required to write a final essay of 8 to10 double
spaced pages on a topic of interest to them. The essay should
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contain information from history and political science as well as
how these relate to the 2016 presidential race.
Evaluation:
Power Point – 25%
Final Paper – 75%
SUMMARY OF CLASSES
Monday January 4, 2016 – The Pre-Reform Era Presidential Nominating
Process
There are two unique features of the American Presidential election process:
primaries and the Electoral College. We will deal with the Electoral College in the
second week. But in this first week we will focus on the nomination system. Very
few democracies in the world besides the United States use primaries to nominate
major party candidates for the top office in the country. But the primary system is a
relatively new phenomenon in American history. This class will focus on the
evolution of the American nominating system from congressional caucus to
conventions to primaries and will use the 1960 nomination race as an example of a
race in the pre-reform era where presidential primaries were used strategically and
sparingly.
Tuesday January 5, 2016 – The Modern Nominating Process – Caucuses,
Primaries and Sequence as Strategy
The modern presidential nomination system is a complex series of
presidential primaries and caucuses. These contests allocate delegates to the
presidential nominating system under a system of rules that are determined by each
political party. This class will examine the rules of the game in the presidential
nominating process and examine the structure of the 2016 system as it is about to
unfold.
Wednesday January 6, 2016 – Are Conventions Still Important?
It seems that every four years commentators bemoan the fact that the
nominating conventions are obsolete. And yet one does not have to go back to the
pre-reform era in presidential nominating politics to find examples of conventions
that were exciting because they were relevant. In this class we will look at three
such conventions: the Democratic Convention of 1972, the Republican convention
of 1976 and the Democratic Convention of 1980. We will also cover the selection of
the Vice President in this class since it is usually made just prior to the convention
and dominates convention news. Conventional wisdom has it that the selection of a
vice presidential running mate can hurt, but not help, a ticket. Different theories
come into play when a candidate is choosing a running mate.
Thursday January 7, 2016 - Who Votes?
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One of the most well known facts of U.S. Presidential elections is our low rate
of voter turnout in comparison to national elections in other democracies. This class
will explore voter turnout in American history and suggest some explanations for
the turnout variations. But if turnout in presidential elections is disappointingly low
– turnout in presidential primaries is even lower. Thus we will also review turnout
data from modern presidential primaries and caucuses and at the demographics of
primary voters versus general election voters.
Friday January 8, 2016 – The decline and fall of the federal financing system
Money has been called the “mother’s milk of politics” – with good reason. In
st
the 21 century the public financing regime put in place after the Watergate
scandals of the 1970s collapsed. It has been replaced by something resembling the
wild wild west. This class will review the legal regimes surrounding political money
including critical court cases and it will review the data on the relationship between
money and victories in primaries and in the general election.
Monday January 11, 2016 -- The Electoral College
The Electoral College was enshrined in the United States Constitution by the
Founding Fathers. It defines American Presidential politics and thus we begin with
what it is and how it works. This class will look at the origins of the Electoral
College, its evolution over time and how it works today. There have been three
elections in American history where the Electoral College and the popular vote have
differed. This class will review those elections with particular focus on the
presidential election of 2000.
Tuesday January 12, 2016 – The Big Tent: American Party Coalitions in
General Elections
American party coalitions are constantly evolving. This class will look at the
history of the Republican and Democratic Parties and at the changing components of
their coalitions. For Democrats we will look at the transformation of the south into a
conservative stronghold and the impact of Millenials and the “Obama Coalition.”
For the Republicans we will pay attention to inclusion of Christian Evangelical
voters in the Republican Coalition, the transition of the South into the Republican
coalition and the emergence of the Tea Party faction of the Republican coalition. In
addition, this class will cover third party candidates and how they impact
presidential elections.
Wednesday January 13, 2016 - Stability and Re-alignment in American
Presidential elections.
One of the most stable predictors of voting behavior is party identification.
This class will review the relationship between party identification and the vote in
modern presidential elections. It will also introduce students to the concept of party
re-alignment, its importance in understanding presidential politics and the evolving
knowledge about independent voters and who they are.
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Thursday January 14, 2016 – Presidential Debates & Politics and Emotion
Voting in presidential elections is a complex process in which the candidates
try to engage the voters on an emotional level. This class will explore a sample of the
research in this area and attempt to understand the emotional undercurrents of
elections. In particular we will look at presidential debates over the years in an
attempt to understand the multiple levels on which these sometimes critical events
operate.
Friday January 15, 2016 – What does it all mean for government?
What is the meaning of an election? Is there such a thing as a mandate? How
do newly elected Presidents interpret the election and what does it mean for their
governing priorities?
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READINGS:
JANUARY 4 - The Pre-Reform Era Presidential Nominating Process
Chapter 1 “The Good Old Days” in Primary Politics: How Presidential Candidates Have
Shaped the Modern Nominating System, by Elaine C. Kamarck, Brookings Press, 2009.
Pp. 6 – 26.
Chapter 1, “Party Reform in Academic Theory and Political Practice,” in Curing the
Mischiefs of Faction, University of California Press, 1975, pp. 1 – 21.
“Pre-Convention Democrats,” (Chapter 5) in The Making of the President 1960 by
Theodore H. White, Signet, 1961.
JANUARY 5 - The Modern Nominating Process – Caucuses, Primaries and
Sequence as Strategy
Excerpts from: The Invisible Primary by Arthur T. Hadley
Excerpts from One Car Caravan: On the Road with the 2004 Democrats before
America Tunes In, by Walter Shapiro.
Chapter 2 “Sequence as Strategy: How Jimmy Carter ‘Got It’ and taught subsequent
Presidential Candidates the New Rules of the Road,” by Elaine C. Kamarck,
Brookings Press, 2009 pp. 27-50.
OPTIONAL: “Constitutional and Statutory Restrictions on Political Parties in the
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Wake of Cousins v. Wigoda,” by Ronald D. Rotunda, Texas Law Review, Vol. 53:935,
1975, pp. 935-963
JANUARY 6
The Class will be divided into four groups and each group will be expected to read one
of the following:
Chapter 4, “A Downward Arc,” in The Liberals’ Moment: The McGovern
Insurgency and the Identity Crisis of the Democratic Party, by Bruce Miroff,
University of Kansas Press, 2007, pp. 72 – 89.
Chapter 32. “A Surprise Strategy,” and Chapter 33. “Mississippi Again,” in
Marathon: The Pursuit of the Presidency 1972 – 1976, by Jules Witcover,
Viking Press, 1977, pp. 475 – 504
Chapter 9. “The Best They Can Do in Unity,” in Blue Smoke and Mirrors: How
Reagan Won and Why Carter Lost the Election of 1980, by Jack W. Germond
and Jules Witcover, Viking Press, 1981, pp. 191 – 208.
Chapter 5, “The Democratic Convention,” The Campaign for President, 1980 in
Retrospect, edited by Jonathan Moore, Ballinger, 1981, pp. 167 – 182.
All students will be expected to read:
“The Eagleton Affair: A Hidden History,” in The Liberals’ Moment: The McGovern
Insurgency and the Identity Crisis of the Democratic Party, by Bruce Miroff, University
of Kansas Press, 2007, pp. 89 – 98.
Chapter 25, “Dan Quayle for What?” in Whose Broad Stripes and Bright Stars? The
Trivial Pursuit of the Presidency, 1988, by Jack W. Germond and Jules Witcover,
Warner Books, 1989, pp. 375 – 395.
Chapter 20 “Sarahcuda” in Game Change: Obama and the Clintons, McCain and Palin ,
and the Race of a Lifetime, by John Heilemann and Mark Halperin, Harper Collins,
2010, pp. 353 – 376.
JANUARY 7 – Who votes?
Chapter 3 “Polarization Then and Now: A Historical Perspective,” by David W. Brady
and Hahrie C. Han,” in Red and Blue Nation? Charactericstics and Causes of America’s
Polarized Politics,” edited by Peitro S. Nivola an David W. Brady, pp. 119 – 151.
Chapter 1, “The Nature of the Puzzle,” in The End of Southern Exceptionalism: Class,
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Race and Partisan Change in the Postwar South, by Byron E. Shafer and Richard
Johnston, Harvard University Press, 2006, pp. 1 – 21.
Chapter 1 “From Kennebunkport to Crawford,” in The Right Nation: Conservative
Power in America, by John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge, Penguin Press,
2004, pp. 27 – 39.
JANUARY 8 - The decline and fall of the federal financing system
“The Real Lessons of Howard Dean: Reflections on the First Digital Campaign,” by
Matthew Hindman in Perspectives on Politics, March 2005, Vol. 3/No. 1, pp. 121 –
128.
Other Readings to come.
JANUARY 11 – The Electoral College
Chapter 4 “The Origins of the Electoral College,” in Why the Electoral College is Bad
for America by George C Edwards III, Yale University Press, 2004, pp. 78-91.
“The Presidential Election of 1824-1825,” by Everett S. Brown, Political Science
Quarterly, Vol. 40, Number 3, September 1925, pp. 384 – 403.
“The Wrong Man is President? Overvotes in the 2000 presidential election in
Florida,” by Walter R. Mebane Jr., in Perspectives on Politics, American Political
Science Association, Vol. 2, No. 3, September 2004. Pp. 525-535
OPTIONAL: Bush et al. v Gore et al. 531U.S. 98.
JANUARY 12 - The Big Tent: American Party Coalitions in General Elections
Readings to come.
JANUARY 13 - Stability and Re-alignment in American Presidential elections
“A Theory of Critical Elections,” by V.O. Key, The Journal of Politics, Vol. 17, No. 1,
(February 1955) pp. 3 – 18.
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The End of Realignment? Interpreting American Electoral Eras, "Critical
Realignment: Dead or Alive?" by Burnham, Walter Dean, pp. 101-139, edited by
Byron E. Shafer (Madison : University of Wisconsin Press © 1991)
Excerpts from: Millennial Makeover: My Space, YouTube & the Future of American
Politics by Morley Winograd & Michael Hais, Rutgers University Press, 2008.
JANUARY 14 - Presidential Debates & Politics and Emotion
Chapter 2, “Rational Minds, Irrational Campaigns” pp. 25-44 and Chapter 4, “The
Emotions Behind the Curtain.” The Political Brain by Drew Westen, Public Affairs,
2007. pp. 25 – 44 and pp. 69-88.
Wake Us When It’s Over: Presidential Politics of 1984, by Jack W. Germond and Jules
Witcover, Macmillan, 1985, “A Real Bump in the Road,” pp. 493- 538.
“No Excuses: Confessions of a Serial Campaigner,” by Robert Shrum, pp. 352 – 360.
“Game Change: Obama and the Clintons, McCain and Palin and the race of a lifetime,”
by John Heilemann and Mark Halperin, pp. 391 -393.
JANUARY 15 - What does it all mean for government?
“The Myth of the Presidential Mandate” By R.A. Dahl, Political Science Quarterly
105:3 Autumn 1990.
“The First 100 days: Redefining Presidential Mandates and their Impact on
Policymaking,” by Lawrence J. Grossback, David A.M. Peterson and James A. Stimson,
paper presented at the 2002 Meeting of the American Political Science Association.
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