The United Nations Security Council: The Migrant and Refugee Crisis Chairs: Griffin Tarpenning, Saira Yusuf, Olivia Jorasch 1 Dear Delegates, Welcome to the second year of Nueva MUN! My name is Griffin Tarpenning and I will be your chair for this conference. I am currently a junior at the Nueva High School along with my chair Saira Yusuf and our rapporteur Olivia Jorasch. This will be our second time chairing a conference and we are all very excited to see what unique solutions you can come up with to combat the prevalent problem of freedom of expression. In this conference we expect you to stand by your country's’ position on the issue and conduct yourselves in professional, diplomatic manner. We are confident that this conference will run smoothly with your help, and we look forward to working with you! Feel free to email me with any questions regarding the conference or this topic. I suggest you look at the resources at the bottom if you’re unsure of where to start. Best of luck, Griffin Tarpenning [email protected] 2 I.
The Refugee Crisis: A Background In the first 6 weeks of 2016, more than 80,000 refugees arrived on Greek shores.1 The Human Rights Watch created a video chronicling the journey of many migrants and refugees: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uX­8emlxqqc​
. Due to the proximity of Southern Europe to Northern Africa and the Middle East migrants and refugees have been arriving on European shores by the thousands. In order to understand the current crisis in Europe it is important to define what migrants and refugees are. Refugee is defined as someone fleeing oppressive regimes, civil wars, or any other type of persecution. Recently there have been increasing numbers of refugees leaving Syria, Eritrea, Afghanistan, and Iraq. While there are many factors contributing to the current refugee crisis, by far the most prevalent to the current refugee crisis is the ongoing civil war in Syria. There are currently more than 4.6 million refugees from Syria alone, not including the 6.6 million internally displaced people within Syria.2 The reason people are fleeing Syria in troves is because they have nowhere else to go. Bruno Macaes from the Guardian explains that the four year long Syrian civil war is showing no signs of improvement, thus people are fleeing in hopes of finding a safe haven from violence.3 Migrants are defined as people who come to another country in search of a better life and opportunities. Migrants from Eastern Europe and the Middle East have become especially prominent in recent years and are posing a considerable threat to the economic and politic stability of the EU. The United Nations have already pledged to help refugees in as many ways that they can in the short term, but most of the refugees arriving in receiving countries have no plans to return to their home countries. These refugees often face harsh living conditions in their new countries. According to a study by the UNHCR, two thirds of refugees in Jordan are living below the poverty line, and one sixth of Syrian refugees live in abject poverty. 4 Consequently, when discussing the refugee crisis, the media and the United Nations have focused primarily on addressing the dire humanitarian needs of refugees. Many UN bodies, government agencies, and non governmental agencies are working to improve the current conditions for refugees and migrants. However, the Security Council is not convening to discuss the humanitarian issues migrants and refugees are facing but rather the security and safety as well as the economic and 1
​
http://www.unhcr.org/56bdf0f26.html 2
​
http://www.worldvision.org/news­stories­videos/syria­war­refugee­crisis 3
​
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/09/what­caused­the­refugee­crisis­google 4
http://unhcr.org.au/unhcr/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=556:unhcr­study­shows­rapid­de
terioration­in­living­conditions­of­syrian­refugees­in­jordan&catid=35:news­a­media&Itemid=63 3 political stability of all nations receiving migrants and refugees. The following three sections explain many of the potentially adverse consequences refugees have on receiving countries and the world. It is vital that nations take into account the humanitarian needs of migrants and refugees but focus on the security risk that refugees pose to individual countries and the European Union. II.
Economic Security The refugee crisis has taken a toll on the economic security of the EU and other receiving nations. Because refugees require food, water, shelter, medical care, etc. it becomes very costly to house millions of these refugees over time. Both in the short­term and in the long­term, receiving nations may be hurt by refugees. A. Short Term Economic Harms Countries like Lebanon and Jordan have already felt the negative economic consequences of large influxes of refugees. In Lebanon, the growing number of refugees has increased demand for electricity by 27%, ultimately leading a World Bank report to find that the negative economic effects of refugees in Lebanon has been around 2.6 billion dollars from 2012­2014 alone.5 A similar effect was seen in Jordan, where the IMF explains that there has been increased inflation, a 1% slowing of growth, less exports and more imports, higher home prices, and entire informal economies that hinder future growth.6 In aggregate, an OECD commissioned paper explains that the following countries have had to spend dramatically more on refugees: Germany (.5% of GDP), Austria (.2% of GDP), Sweden (.9% of GDP), Hungary (.1% of GDP), Turkey (.9% of GDP), and the EU (.1% of GDP).7 While a seemingly negligible impact, the economic harms of refugees could be dangerous to nations without strong infrastructure. Jordan, for example, has seen many more water shortages after the near doubling of the population in some cities.8 B. Long­Term Economic Fears There are fears among many political analysts that the surging populations of refugees will cause a political shift to anti­immigrant policies and forever destroy the interconnectedness of the EU. Because many citizens are have misguided fears that refugees will take away jobs, 5
​
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/092115/economic­costs­europes­migrant­crisis.asp 6
​
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/092115/economic­costs­europes­migrant­crisis.asp 7
​
http://www.oecd.org/migration/How­will­the­refugee­surge­affect­the­European­economy.pdf 8
​
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/refugee­crisis­draining­jordan­s­water­resources 4 lower wages, and destroy cultures, political parties that advocate for shutting down borders are becoming more popular. Interior Minister of the EU, Thomas de Maiziere, writes that the whole idea of free movement within the EU is being jeopardized by the current crisis.9 We have already seen this happen in Hungary and Croatia, where after migrants started pouring through the borders, the countries completely locked down borders. More than just closing borders with Serbia, where the refugees were entering from, Croatia has cut off rail connections with other countries such as Slovenia, potentially creating a rebound effect that could engender a collapse of trade between EU nations.10 Max Rosenthal writing for Mother Jones in September of 2015 explains that the closing of borders would hurt tourism, culture transfer, and the benefits from easy trade. These long­term consequences of refugees are already starting to manifest, creating further fears that the stability of the EU is at risk. III.
Individual State Security While the economic effects of refugees clearly pose some security risk to affected nations, a much greater security risk comes from the interactions between refugees and citizens of host countries. There are the following three distinct categories of terror acts that have come out of the refugee crisis: refugee terrorism, host citizen hate crimes, and ISIL threats. These three factors have led many to believe that immediate action is required in order to prevent catastrophic damage. A. Refugee Camps Breed Terrorism One of the most common arguments against allowing refugees into a county is the fear that refugees will breed terrorism in refugee camps. While most evidence would suggest that this is more of a perceived threat than an actual security risk, there is still a possibility that terrible condition within camps could incentivise refugees to take up arms against their hosts. Anne Speckhard from the New York Times writes that “the longer these refugees are left to languish in despair in camps the more prone they become to radicalization.”11 Speckhard outlines how refugees are a vulnerable group of people who, after having to completely relocate and live in a foreign land, are more likely to convert to extremists who could potentially cause harm. An example of refugees attacking host country residents lies in Sweden. A recent NPR story covers Swedish Jews being attacked and jeered at by newly relocated refugees. The tensions between 9
​
http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/04/europe/lister­europe­divided­migrant­crisis/ 10
​
http://www.bbc.com/news/world­europe­34278886 11
​
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/29/opinion/how­dragging­our­feet­on­refugees­creates­more­terrorist s.html?_r=1 5 Jews and the primarily Muslim refugees could create the potential for harmful interactions instigated by refugees. B. Hate Crimes Against Refugees A far more common security threat than refugees attacking host citizens is actually the reverse. Resentful that outsiders are taking jobs and money from the government, local citizens have been committing hate crimes against refugees. Because many nations in Europe have high unemployment among younger and unskilled individuals, an article from the National Interest finds that much of the hate crimes and terrorism direct towards refugees is fueled by the fear of job loss.12 There is a wide range of academic literature that outlines this very phenomenon. Black Garcia in May of 2015, in analysis of previous refugee crises, finds that a dramatic influx of new refugees causes an average 106.74% more hate crimes nationwide.13 This statistically significant finding is incredibly crucial to understanding the relationship between refugees and hate crimes; however, it doesn’t take into account the unprecedented size of this current crisis. Further analysis of refugee crises from Amanda Ekey would suggest that a 1% increase in refugees increases terrorism by 18%.14 A more relevant statistic to this current crisis is provided by Tanya Chute from the Center of Refugee Studies who finds that 25,000 more refugees leads to 45% more terrorism.15 The previously cited National Interesting article explains that more than just physical violence, many of the worst transgressions are occurring through the media. Once­progressive newspapers and magazines write strongly anti­immigrant papers in addition to the dramatic increase in anti­muslim websites all across the web. Physical terrorism has also occurred. A German newspaper finds that there have been more than 222 attacks of migrants within Germany alone, 93 of which involved arson of occupied refugee hostels meaning that these attacks were far from benign.16 Research also shows that between June and September of 2015 there was an average of 3 xenophobic attack per day. 17 This is obviously a large security threat. The United States Department of Justice found that of all crimes, hate crimes are most likely to produce and wrose tensions which can lead to civil disobedience, increased racial 12
​
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/europes­refugee­nightmare­has­greater­unseen­risks­14184 13
​
http://oaktrust.library.tamu.edu/bitstream/handle/1969.1/155240/GARCIA­DISSERTATION­2015.pdf ?sequence=1&isAllowed=y 14
​
http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/5628/Amanda_Ekey.pdf 15
​
http://yorkspace.library.yorku.ca/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10315/2598/CRS%20Working%20Paper%203. pdf?sequence=1 16
​
https://www.rt.com/news/324854­222­attacks­uninvestigated­germany/ 17
​
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/12/7/germany­sees­rise­in­crimes­against­refugees.html 6 conflicts, or riots. Long term consequences of high levels of hate crimes can lead to decreased property values, low tax revenues, and increased insurance rates. 18 C. The Threat of ISIL An interesting byproduct of allowing millions thousands of refugees into the EU every day is that this flow of people creates an easy way for professional terrorist organizations such as ISIL or Al Qaeda to infiltrate the West. Militants can blend into the flow of people moving into the EU, providing one of the best way of getting into Western countries ever. AAron Brown in 2015 explains that there have been reports of more than 4,000 ISIL fighters having already infiltrated the West. 19 Many believe that these “sleepers” (ISIL members who act like normal members of society until called upon to act) will wait until a coordinated time to strike, causing incalculable devastation. Tensions are currently rising in Germany, where the Russian Times found little more than a month ago that ISIL could be preparing for an attack.20 There have already been multiple kidnappings and threats towards Germany security. IV.
EU Political Fracture A. Tensions between EU nations The refugee crisis has also take its toll on the political bodies working within the EU. One of the defining characteristics of the EU and the largest contributing factor to it’s success is the principle of freedom of movement of people and goods. This ideal is being challenged as countries began to solidify and close their borders. However, the EU has passed many resolutions on the issue in conjunction with those passed by individual countries. Some of these include beneficial programs for refugees such as the relocation program that distributes refugees all around EU nations. This allows for the burden of nations with huge influxes of refugees face, such as Greece or Italy, to be spread out over the entirety of the EU; this is a seemingly good plan, but has alienated certain political bodies.The United Kingdom is one such nation. Many countries have shown resentment at the fact that the UK has only sheltered 216 refugees from this program (despite 13,000 applications), compared to the 800,000 that Germany has pledged to shelter in this year alone.21 The United Kingdom has threatened to begin to 18
​
http://www.justice.gov/crs/hate­crime 19
​
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/555434/Islamic­State­ISIS­Smuggler­THOUSANDS­Extremists­in to­Europe­Refugees 20
​
https://www.rt.com/news/329890­germany­refugees­isis­members/ 21
​
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/eu­migrant­crisis­numbers­europe­divided­over­refugee­redistribution­151829 3 7 remove itself from the EU. They had proposed a plan that would jeopardize the very mission of the EU. A British exit from the EU would have huge economic ramifications for the entirety of Europe as well as a division and the start of the decline of a united Europe. B. Political Shift Refugees are often seen as an invasive force which causes backlash in the political spectrum. The political scenes of many European nations have been altered after the influx of immigrants. Using the refugee crisis as a way of gaining more votes, Nazi, Neo­Nazi, Anti­immigrant, and extreme Right­Wing parties stand strong against immigrants. These parties have done well in recent months. Recent elections in Greece show that a new party, Golden Dawn, has dramatically increased in size. Frida Ghitis from the World Politics Review explains that Golden Dawn is “a Nazi­inspired ultra­right­wing party,” and that its “strongest showings came in the places where refugees have had the largest presence.”22 In Hungary, the Jobbik party also came out strong in recent elections, a party that has been widely criticized for its anti­Semitic statements.23 Both parties share a history of violence and racism; clearly there is an indirect political threat from refugees. Even in Sweden, a country that is considered to be the hallmark of acceptance of refugees, has seen a political shift. A New York Times article explains that “the anti­immigration, anti­European Union Sweden Democrats are now ahead of the two largest parties in the opinion polls with about 25 percent.”24 This means that not only are the refugees at risk, the inclusion of Sweden in the EU is also at risk. Germany has not escaped the political shift either, evident through “the neo­Nazis [who] openly battled police at an asylum facility at Heidenau, near Dresden.”25 Overall, Matthew Karnitschnig from the Wall Street Journal concludes that “governments across Europe have endorsed tougher security and surveillance—policies a number of them previously had resisted” while some “also have placed high hurdles for citizenship, branding many residents as permanent foreigners.”26 This has created the environment for Neo­Nazi political parties like Golden Dawn and Jobbik to flourish; 22
​
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/16759/anti­refugee­backlash­will­benefit­europe­s­far­right­p arties 23
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/17/world/europe/far­right­parties­form­coalition­in­european­parliament.htm
l?_r=0 24
​
​
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/08/world/europe/right­wing­european­parties­may­benefit­ from­migrant­crisis.html 25
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/08/world/europe/right­wing­european­parties­may­benefit­ from­migrant­crisis.html http://www.wsj.com/articles/europes­anti­immigrant­parties­stand­to­gain­ground­in­wake­of­pa
ris­attacks­1421371307 26
8 this is a dire security risk. Golden Dawn, for instance, won 7% of the Greek parliamentary seats (coming in third), giving them power to influence major decisions within the government. Just months before the election, many of Golden Dawn’s leaders were charged with “murder, armed attacks, money laundering and trafficking,” yet they are now the third largest political force in Greece (500,000 votes cast in their favor).27 Refugees are creating a political climate that is conducive to dangerous organizations acquiring unprecedented power. V.
Conclusion This complex, multifaceted issue is unsolvable without the cooperation of nations worldwide and particularly those in this committee. Ensuring the security and stability of the EU and all receiving nations is of utmost importance. When researching, delegates should take into account the positive and negative effects of both migrants and refugees upon their country, the EU as a whole, and a worldwide scale. As humanitarian challenges are beginning to get alleviated the world has to create and implement a sustainable solution for both receiving nations and their receiving countries. This solution must not only guarantee the safety and security of citizens around the world but also ensure the economic and political stability in receiving nations. 27
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/21/neo­fascist­greek­party­election­golden­dawn­third­place 9