Assessing the Future Potential of
Renewable Energy Sources in the
Arctic Region:
The Role of Alternative Energy Systems and the New
Arctic Energy Portal
Bjorn Gunnarsson
RES | the School for Renewable Energy Science
Akureyri, Iceland
www.res.is
The Global Energy Challenge
International Energy Agency (IEA), Fall 2008:
“The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global
trends in energy supply and consumption are unsustainable environmentally, economically, socially. But that can and
must be altered; there’s still time to change the road we’re on.
It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of human
prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle the two
central energy challenges facing us today: securing the
supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a
rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and
environmentally benign system of energy supply.
What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution”.
Total Global Energy Demand
70%
increase
Energy Information Agency’s (EIA) “International Energy Outlook 2006”
Proven World Reserves-to-Production Ratio
at End 2004 (Years)
Fossil Fuel Reserves Lifetimes
200
164 yrs.
Grand-children
Your
World
R/P ratios are:
Oil = 40.5 years;
Natural Gas = 66.7 years;
Coal = 164 years
100
 U.S. R/P ratios are:
Oil = 11.1 years;
Natural Gas = 9.8 years;
Coal = 245 years
66.7 yrs.
40.5 yrs.
0
Your
• The R/P ratio is the number
of years that proved
children reserves would last at
current production rates.
Oil
Gas
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005
Coal
Production
Declining Resource Production
production gap!
Time
Who has the Oil?
USA
China
India
(http://www.energybulletin.net/37329.html)
Oil in Extreme Environments
New find in GOM
(Jack No. 2 test well)
• Approx. 3-15 billion barrels of oil
• U.S. consumption 20 million barrels/day
• 5 months - 2 years of U.S. supply
• Reservoir is 8 km under sea level
Oil in Extreme Environments
The Arctic Snøhvit Project
The Arctic Snøhvit Project
Oil in Extreme Environments
Oil in Extreme Environments
Oil in Extreme Environments
Oil Spills in Arctic Waters
Oil Spills in Arctic Waters
Alternative Energy Systems in
Remote Locations in the North
Sustainable Low-Carbon Societies
• Important drivers for increased use of renewable energy
sources are proven technology, attractive costs, vast potential,
investor interests, and strong demand
• With oil at over $100/bbl all the renewable energy
technologies, even the mature ones, are undergoing rapid
technical transformation and/or development
Sustainable Low-Carbon Societies
• Renewable energy technologies already have a wide
geographical dispersion around the world but it is important
to note that each technology is “location sensitive”
• In recent years growth in renewable energy markets is
occurring in almost all sectors, countries, and investment
stages. Investment in new renewable energy capacity is
increasing year by year led by solar PV, wind and biofuels
Sustainable Low-Carbon Societies
• Hybrid energy systems – combination of renewable energy
sources that provide a constant flow of uninterrupted power wind, wave/tidal, solar, hydro, geothermal, bioenergy,
renewable hydrogen and FCs
• For isolated locations hybrid systems can be gridinterconnected or stand-alone systems (often requiring battery
banks)
Sustainable Low-Carbon Societies
• Based on the availability in each country, promote the
application of a mix of renewable energy sources with
conventional energy (hybrid systems), with the aim to
maximize renewable energies and face out as soon as possible
the use of those conventional energy sources with the largest
GHG and pollution emissions and external costs
• Promote energy-saving and energy-efficiency technologies in
all sectors of the economy
Hybrid Energy Systems
• Hybrid energy systems – combination of renewable energy
sources that provide a constant flow of uninterrupted power
(e.g. wind, wave/tidal, solar, hydro, geothermal, bioenergy,
renewable hydrogen and FCs) in conjunction with (or
without) fossil energy sources.
• For isolated locations hybrid systems can be gridinterconnected (micro-grids; not requiring batteries to store
energy) or stand-alone systems (requiring battery banks).
• Nordic Energy Research Project: “Energy Systems for
Isolated Locations” 2007-2010.
Hybrid Energy Systems
• Remote communities in the High North use inefficient
diesel-fueled generators for electricity generation, which
leads to local pollution and rising GHG emissions, that in
turn leads to climate change.
• To secure energy supply we need to the find specific,
unique and innovative energy solutions for communities at
periphery. The new energy system need to be able to
provide electricity, heating and transportation fuels.
Hybrid Energy Systems
Hybrid Energy Systems
• Hybrid power systems can provide increased fuel flexibility,
energy efficiency, reliability, reduced emissions, and lower
costs – identify potential hybrid combinations (the matrix).
• Incorporating heat, power, and highly efficient devices (fuel
cells, advanced materials etc.) can increase overall efficiency
and conserve energy for a hybrid system when compared
with individual technologies.
Iceland’s Power System
Laxá
28 MW
Þeistareykir 120 MW
Gjástykki 40 MW
Krafla 60 MW+160 MW
Bjarnarflag 90 MW
Bjarnarflag
3 MW
Blanda
150 MW
Fjarðaál
Kárahnjúkar
690 MW
Reyðarfjörður
Norðlingaölduveita
diversion
Hágöngur 120 MW
Sultartangalína 3
Sultartangi Búðarháls 100 MW
ÍJ
120 MW Hrauneyjafoss
Norðurál
Skaftárveita
Sog
210 MW
diversion
Hvammur
90
MW
Alcan
Vatnsfell 90 MW
80 MW
Sigalda 150 MW
Búrfell
Bjallar 60 MW
*Reykjanes
270 MW
100 MW
Holt 50 MW
*Hellisheiði
Existing
90 MW
*Svartsengi
Urriðafoss
Skaftá 125 MW
45 MW
*Nesjavellir 125 MW
Hólmsá 70 MW
120 MW
Under
constr. Planned
Hydro
Geothermal
Substation
Power intensive
industry
Transmission
line Landsnet
Total Energy Consumption in Iceland by Sources
1930-2003
PJ (petajoule)
160
100%
140
120
80%
60%
100
40%
80
20%
60
Proportional contribution of sources
0%
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
40
20
0
1900
1910
1 petajoule = 1015 joule = 0,278 TWst
Source: Orkustofnun 2004
1920
1930
Hydro Power
1940
1950
1960
Geothermal
1970
Peat
1980
1990
Coal
2000
Oil
The capital of Iceland
around 1930....
and capital of Iceland
today....
Arctic Energy Portal
Arctic Energy Portal
Arctic Energy Portal
Climate Impacts on RES
Report: “Impact of Climate Change on
Renewable Energy Sources”.
Edited by Jes Fenger, 2007, 192 pages
www.norden.org/pub
• Assessing climate impacts on renewable energy sources in
Nordic Countries for the time period 2071-2100 compared to
1961-1990. Assessment based mainly on two global climate
models (GCMs) and various IPCC emission scenarios.
Climate Impacts on RES
• Climate change in the Nordic Region will lead to increase in
temperature, precipitation, winds, river flow, and biomass
growth.
• This can greatly enhanced hydropower production, support
wind power generation (limited change in capacity though
possible), and enhanced energy supply from biomass. From
Nordic perspective, these changes will be in the order of 10%
of current electricity production.
• Changes in received solar radiation are uncertain, but a
reduction due to increasing cloud cover cannot be excluded.
• Higher temperatures will reduce space-heating demand.
Warmer winters will lead to a drop in winter energy demand
and fewer seasonal variations in demand.
Climate Impacts on RES
Climate Impacts on RES
• The consequences of climate change on renewable energy
sources seem small compared to the economic, technical, and
political changes that could take place in the next 50 years (or
during 2071-2100).
• Technological innovation. New technologies such as high
temperature superconducting materials, power electronics,
electricity storage and automated demand response from
consumers could revolutionize the way the electricity system
works.
• However the electricity system is vulnerable in relation to
extreme weather events. Storms, floods, and extreme
temperatures can disrupt the power supply. The frequency
and seriousness of extreme weather may be more critical for
the energy system than changes in average climate values.
NRF – Theme Group on Energy
• Promote the development of integrated alternative energy
systems in the North, with the focus on keeping the share of
renewable energy as high as possible
• Promote networking amongst renewable energy experts in the
Northern countries; sharing knowledge and promoting
transfer of technical know-how
• Find ways to encourage active cooperation between energy
producers, energy users, as well as the scientific and research
community to find innovative energy solutions for remote
regions of the North, with the aim to make these regions as
sustainable as possible in term of energy
NRF – Theme Group on Energy
• Assist in mapping the potential for each renewable energy
source and its possible share in the overall energy mix for
each region of the North
• Promote education in renewable energy science for the
inhabitance of the North as well as training in the build-up,
operation and maintenance of alternative energy systems
• Assess the capabilities of remote societies in the North to
take full advantage of available renewable energy
technologies, as well as provide information on initial capital
investments, as well as operation and maintenance costs for
alternative energy systems
NRF – Theme Group on Energy
• Assess the efficiency and dependability of such alternative
energy systems under weather conditions prevailing in the
North
• Promote demonstration projects in selected regions of the
North to show the use and efficiency of such alternative
energy systems in remote locations
Thank you for your Attention!