MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT NO 1 OF 2015: CITRUS
1.
INTRODUCTION
The following text is a review of the citrus marketing environment. This analysis is updated on a quarterly
basis. The interval covered in the current issue is from quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014. This period is
subdivided into five, three-month long quarters1. The key issues discussed in the review are the trends in
production, producer prices, and sales in the National Fresh Produce Markets (NFPMs), exports and
imports. The citrus products covered are oranges, grapefruits, lemons and limes, soft citrus and naartjies.
During the period under review the average producer prices of naartjie increased by 46% on a quarter-onquarter basis while those of oranges, soft citrus, lemon and lime and grapefruit, decreased by 43.91%,
35.25%, 6.26% and 28.25% respectively. The quarterly production of citrus products, oranges, grapefruit,
lemon and lime, soft citrus and naartjie decreased by 87.54%, 96.28, 91.78, 98.10 and 65% respectively.
The quarterly volumes of sales at the NFPMs for all citrus products, oranges, grapefruit, lemon and lime
soft citrus and naartjie experienced a decrease of 72.67%, 75.31%, 6.63%, 88.94% and 54.98%
respectively. The volumes of exports of all citrus products, orange, grapefruit, lemon and lime, soft citrus
and naartjie all decreased by 83.62%, 97.99%, 98.51%, 98.35% and 76.44% respectively . Quarterly
import volumes for orange decreased by 77.95% while grapefruit, lemon and lime, soft citrus and other
citrus imports increased by 100%, 718%, 100% and 99% during the fourth quarter of 2014.
2.
AVERAGE PRODUCER PRICE OF CITRUS PRODUCTS
Average producer prices of citrus products during the period under review are presented in Figure 1.
Oranges recorded an average producer price of R 2 287.21 per ton during the third quarter of 2014. The
price was 43.9% less than the average producer price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 0.65%
more than the average producer price of last year at the same time (quarter 4, 2013). The orange average
producer price usually follows the pattern of demand and supply in most cases. An increase in orange
production during the fourth quarter is accompanied by a decrease in average producer price.
The average producer price of grapefruit during the fourth quarter of 2014 dropped to R 2 217.99 per ton.
This price was 28.25% lower than the average producer price of last quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 18%
higher than the average producer of the previous season at the same time (quarter 4, 2013). A drop in
1Quarter
1: January to March, Quarter 2: April to June, Quarter 3: July to September, Quarter 4: October to December
1
average producer price is not quite surprising given the fact that total production decreased by 96.28%. It is
often expected that the grapefruit average prices reach its low during periods of high production. When one
takes a closer look at the below graph, the average producer price reached its highest during periods of low
production and vice -versa. Thus one can anticipate prices to move up towards first quarter of 2015.
Lemons and limes recorded an average producer price of R 7 563.25 per ton during the fourth quarter. This
price was 6.26% lower than the average producer price of previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 16.53%
higher than the average producer price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2014). The
6.26% quarter-on-quarter price decrease was accompanied by a decrease in production. This serves to
confirm that lemon and lime average producer price usually does not follow the forces of demand and
supply. Due to this demand and supply pattern, it makes it more uncertain to predict the price for the next
coming quarter.
The average producer price of soft citrus during the fourth quarter recorded a value of R6 313.09 per ton.
This price was 35.25% higher than the average producer price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and
21.32 % lower than the average producer price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013).
Prices are expected to continue increase in the next coming quarter due to normal drop in total production
in the first quarter.
Naartjie average producer price during the fourth quarter of 2014 reached R6 362.49 per ton. This
represented a 46% increase as compared to previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 6.79% higher as
compared to last year at the same time (quarter 4, 2013). Naartjie was the highest amongst other citrus
product that recorded an increase in producer price.
2
Average prices (Rand/Ton)
Figure 1: Quartely producer prices of citrus products
12 000.00
10 000.00
8 000.00
6 000.00
4 000.00
2 000.00
0.00
Orange
Grapefruit
Lemon & lime
Soft citrus
Naartjie
Q4 2013
2 272.33
1 878.64
6 490.46
8 023.48
5 957.91
Q1 2014
4 704.80
6 266.47
6 012.64
9 502.20
1 861.57
Q2 2014
3 966.43
2 910.20
7 644.44
8 137.81
1 638.38
Q3 2014
4 077.54
3 091.41
8 067.99
9 749.70
4 356.69
Q4 2014
2 287.21
2 217.99
7 563.25
6 313.09
6 362.49
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
3.
TOTAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF CITRUS PRODUCTS
The quarterly production and gross values of the different citrus products during the period under review
are presented in Figures 2 – 6 below.
Figure 2 illustrates the quarterly production and gross value of oranges during the five quarter under
review. Oranges worth the value of R336 million were produced during the fourth quarter of 2014. The
value recorded during this quarter represents a 93% decrease in gross value compared to the previous
quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and a 0.92% increase compared to the same time of previous season (quarter 4,
2013). The decrease in value on a quarter-on-quarter basis follows a decrease in the volume of oranges
produced during the fourth quarter of 2014.
A total of 148 thousand tons of oranges were produced during the fourth quarter of 2014. This was an
increase of 87.54% from the previous quarterly production (quarter 3, 2014) and 0.27% higher than the
quarterly production volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). As can be evidently
seen on the below graph, the production of oranges is usually at its lowest during the first quarter of each
year and the highest volumes are produced in the third quarter. With this being said, we can expect orange
production to decline in the next upcoming quarter because of the off season.
3
1400000
6000.00
1200000
5000.00
Volume in Tons
1000000
4000.00
800000
3000.00
600000
2000.00
400000
1000.00
200000
0
Volume in Tons
Gross value in Rands (million)
Q4 2013
148025
336.36
Q1 2014
3595
16.91
Q2 2014
475049
1884.25
Q3 2014
1191403
4858.00
Q4 2014
148418
339.46
Gross value in Rands (millions)
Figure 2: Quartely production and gross value of orange
0.00
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
The quarterly production and gross value of grapefruit during the period under review is presented in Figure
3. Quarterly production gross value was R 6.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2014. This was 97.33% lower
than the gross value of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 24% lower than the gross value at the
same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The decrease in the attained gross value during the
third quarter is mainly due to a decrease in total production itself.
A total volume of 2 806 tons of grapefruit were produced during the third quarter. This was 96.28% lower
than the total production of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and a 36.33% increase as compared to
the quarterly production of last year at the same time (quarter 4, 2013). Normally, post second quarter of
each year we expect grapefruit to decline until it reaches its lowest level in quarter one. This was no
exception as grapefruit dropped during the fourth quarter with minimal production experienced during other
quarters when grapefruit is off season.
4
Figure 3: Quartely production and gross value of grapefruit
1000.00
900.00
Volume in Tons
300000
800.00
250000
700.00
200000
600.00
150000
400.00
500.00
300.00
100000
200.00
50000
0
Volume in Tons
Gross value in Rands (million)
100.00
Q4 2013
4408
8.28
Q1 2014
1241
7.78
Q2 2014
320484
932.67
Q3 2014
75505
233.42
Q4 2014
2806
6.22
Gross value in Rands (millions)
350000
0.00
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
Figure 4 illustrates the quarterly production and gross value of lemons and limes during the five quarters
under review. Lemon and lime worth the value of R 72 million were produced during the fourth quarter of
2014. This value represents a 92.30 % decrease from the previous quarter production (quarter 2, 2014)
and 13.72% increase compared to the same quarter of last year (quarter 4, 2013). The quarter-on-quarter
decrease in gross value during the fourth quarter was mainly due to decrease in total production (see next
paragraph).
Production of lemon and lime, like that of grapefruit also reaches its highest during the second quarter of
each year. When one take a closer look at the below graph, lemon and lime reached its lowest during the
fourth quarter and maintained its highest production in the second quarter of 2014. A total volume of 9 639
tons were produced during the fourth quarter of 2014. The volume was 91.78% lower than the quarterly
production of the previous quarter (quarter, 3 2014) and 2.4% lower than the quarterly production volume at
the same time in the previous season. Thus one can anticipate total production for the next coming quarter
to increase slightly due to usual production slight increase of lemon and lime from quarter one of each year.
5
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Volume in Tons
Gross value in Rands (million)
1600.00
1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
Q4 2013
9878
64.11
Q1 2014
23722
142.63
Q2 2014
177221
1354.75
Q3 2014
117308
946.44
Q4 2014
9639
72.90
Gross value in Rands(millions)
Volume in Tons
Figure 4: Quartely production and gross value of lemon and lime
0.00
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
Figure 5: Quartely production and gross value of soft citrus
1000.00
900.00
Volume in Tons
100000
800.00
700.00
80000
600.00
60000
500.00
400.00
40000
300.00
200.00
20000
0
Volume in Tons
Gross value in Rands (million)
Gross value in Rands (millions)
120000
100.00
Q4 2013
1255
10.07
Q1 2014
5883
55.90
Q2 2014
113941
927.23
Q3 2014
61862
603.14
Q4 2014
1174
7.41
0.00
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
The quarterly production and gross value of soft citrus during the period under review are presented in
Figure 5. A total volume of 1 174 tons worth the value of R7.4 million were produced during the fourth
quarter of 2014. The total production for the fourth quarter was 98.10% lower than the quarterly production
of previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 6.45 % lower than the production at the same time in the previous
season (quarter 4, 2012). The total gross value also decreased with 98.77% on quarter-on-quarter basis.
6
The decrease in total gross value on quarter-on-quarter basis was caused by obvious decrease in total
production as highlighted. When compared to the same quarter of previous season, the total gross value
decreased by 26.40% on year-on-year basis. One can undoubtedly predict a slight increase in both
production and value for the next coming quarter.
Figure 6 presents the production and total gross value of naartjies during the five quarters under review.
The production of naartjies, like that of oranges, normally peaks during the third and remains almost stable
during the fourth quarter of each year. The quarterly production volume of naartjies remained decreased
during the fourth quarter of 2014 recording 5 978 tons. This was 65% lower than the quarterly production
volume of previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 10% lower than production at the same time in the
previous season (quarter 4 2013). Production is expected to decline during the first quarter of 2015 as
naartjies will be off season.
The gross value of production during the same quarter was R 38 million. The value was 48.9% lower than
the production gross value in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 4% lower than the production
gross value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2014). The gross value of production for
naartjies is usually higher during the second and third quarter and lower during the first quarter each year.
18000
80.00
16000
70.00
14000
60.00
12000
50.00
10000
40.00
8000
30.00
6000
4000
20.00
2000
10.00
0
Volume in Tons
Gross value in Rands (million)
Q4 2013
6650
39.62
Q1 2014
266
0.50
Q2 2014
17072
27.97
Q3 2014
17090
74.45
Q4 2014
5978
38.03
Gross value in Rands 9millions)
Volume in Tons
Figure 6: Quartely production and gross value of naartjie
0.00
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
4.
SALES AT THE NATIONAL FRESH PRODUCE MARKETS (NFPMs)
The quarterly volumes and average prices of the different citrus products sold at the National Fresh
Produce Markets (NFPMs) during the period under review are presented in Figures 7 – 11 below.
Quarterly sales and average prices for oranges sold at the NFPMs during the five quarters under review
are presented in Figure 7. The volume of oranges sold at the NFPMs is generally lower in the first and
fourth quarter. This is in response to lower volumes of oranges produced during the same quarter. The
7
quarterly volume of oranges sold at the NFPMs during the fourth quarter of 2014 was 14 048 tons. This
was 72.76% lower than the quarterly volume of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 1.46% higher
than the quarterly volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). At the same time, the
quarterly price at NFPMs for oranges was R3 012 per ton. The price was 267% higher than the quarterly
price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 1.44% less than the quarterly price at the same time in
the previous season (quarter 4, 2013).
Figure 7: Quartely sales and prices of oranges at NFPMs
16000
14000
Volume in Tons
50000
12000
40000
10000
30000
8000
6000
20000
4000
10000
0
Volume in Tons
Average price (Rand/Ton)
2000
Q4 2013
13846
3056
Q1 2014
2920
14487
Q2 2014
51700
818
Q3 2014
51573
820
Q4 2014
14048
3012
Average price (Rand/Ton)
60000
0
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
The quarterly sales and average prices of grapefruit sold at the national fresh produce markets (NFPMs)
during the period under review are depicted in Figure 8. The quarterly volume at NFPMs for grapefruit was
389 tons in the fourth quarter of 2014. The volume was 75.31% lower than the quarterly volume of the
previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 66% less than the quarterly volume at the same time in the previous
season (quarter 4, 2013). The75.31% decrease on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the volume of grapefruit
sold at the NFPMs is not surprising because production of grapefruit also decreased by 96.28% during the
same period.
Grapefruits sold through the NFPMs during the fourth quarter of 2014 fetched an average price of R6 699
per ton. The price was 305% more than the quarterly price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and
199% higher than the quarterly price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The
increase in prices is as expected because the volume of grapefruit available for sale during the fourth
quarter of 2014 decreased when compared to the third quarter of 2014.
8
2500
8000
7000
Volume in Tons
2000
6000
5000
1500
4000
1000
3000
2000
500
0
Volume in Tons
Average price (Rand/Ton)
Average prices (Rand/Ton)
Figure 8: Quartely sales and prices of grapefruit at NFPMs
1000
Q4 2013
1165
2236
Q1 2014
523
4978
Q2 2014
2036
1280
Q3 2014
1575
1654
Q4 2014
389
6699
0
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
Figure 9 illustrates the quarterly sales and prices for lemons and limes sold at the NFPMs during the period
under review. A volume of 3 600 tons of lemons and limes were sold though the NFPMs at an average
price of R7 607 during the fourth quarter of 2014. The volume sold was 6.63% lower than the quarterly
volume of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 4.97% higher than the quarterly volume at the same
time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The average price during the fourth quarter (R7 607) was
7.10% higher than the quarterly price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 4.73% higher than the
quarterly price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). Figure 9 also shows that the
demand for lemons and limes sold at the markets is relatively consistent throughout the year. This however
does not translate into stability in prices of lemons and limes sold at the NFPMs (see Figure 9). The prices
are highly responsive to quantities available for sale.
9
4000
3900
3800
3700
3600
3500
3400
3300
3200
3100
3000
2900
Volume in Tons
Average price (Rand/Ton)
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
Q4 2013
3430
7985
Q1 2014
3236
8464
Q2 2014
3739
7325
Q3 2014
3856
7103
Q4 2014
3600
7607
Average price (Rand/Ton)
Volume in Tons
Figure 9: Quartely sales and prices of lemon and lime at NFPMs
6000
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
The quarterly sales and average prices for soft citrus sold at the NFPMs during the five quarters under
review are presented in Figure 10. NFPMs sold 406 tons of soft citrus during the fourth quarter of 2014.
The average price during the same quarter was R2 423 per ton. The volume was 88.92% lower than the
quarterly volume in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 84.55% higher than the quarterly volume at
the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The price during the same quarter was 803%
higher than the quarterly price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2013) and 45.81% less than the quarterly
price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The decrease in prices on quarter-onquarter can be attributed to some external forces such as quality of product and reduced consumer
demand, as supply of soft citrus dropped at the NFPMs.
From quarter four of 2013 to quarter four of 2014 prices of soft citrus were responding to quantities
available for sale in the sense that when quantities are low, prices are higher and vice-versa (see Figure
10). Higher volumes are supplied to the NFPMs during the second quarter due to high volumes produced
during the same quarter. The volumes however start declining during the third quarter until they reach their
lowest level in quarter four and start increasing thereafter.
10
8000
5000
7000
4500
4000
Volume in Tons
6000
3500
5000
3000
4000
2500
3000
2000
1500
2000
1000
1000
0
Volume in Tons
Average price (Rand/Ton)
Average prices (Rand/Ton)
Figure 10: Quartely sales and prices of soft citrus
500
Q4 2013
220
4472
Q1 2014
726
1355
Q2 2014
6687
147
Q3 2014
3670
268
Q4 2014
406
2423
0
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
Figure 11 presents the quarterly sales and average prices of naartjies sold through the NFPM during the
five quarters under review. A volume of 2 998 tons of naartjies were sold through the NFPMs during the
fourth quarter of 2014. The average price during the same quarter was R7 420 per ton. The volume was
54.98% less than the quarterly volume in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 10.30% less than the
quarterly volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). At the same time the quarterly
price was 122% higher than the quarterly price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 11.48% higher
than the quarterly price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013).
Prices of naartjies at the NFPMs are usually higher during the third and fourth quarters even though
volumes supplied to the markets during these quarters are at their highest. The interesting part is that they
also drop during the first and second quarters when supplies are also low.
11
Figure 11: Quartely sales and prices of naartjie at NFPMs
Volume in Tons
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Volume in Tons
Average price (Rand/Ton)
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Average prices (Rand/Ton)
7000
Q4 2013
3342
6656
Q1 2014
57
4407
Q2 2014
2613
8513
Q3 2014
6660
3340
Q4 2014
2998
7420
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
5.
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
The quarterly volumes and values of citrus products exported and imported by South Africa during the
period under review are presented in the figures below.
Figure 12 presents the quarterly export volumes and values for oranges during the five quarters under
review. Quarterly exports of oranges peak during the third quarter each year because quarterly production
also peaks during the same quarter. A total volume of 136 780 tons were exported by South Africa during
the fourth quarter of 2014. The quarterly export value during the same quarter was R693 million. The
volume was 83.62% lower than the quarterly volume in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 9.42%
less than the quarterly export volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). At the
same time the quarterly export value was 85.38% lower than the quarterly value of the previous quarter
(quarter 3, 2014) and 1% less than the quarterly value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4,
2013). The 85.38% quarter-on-quarter drop in the quarterly export volumes was the result of a drop in
production in the fourth quarter of 2014.
Asia, which accounted for 50.1% (68 555 tons) of all South African exports of oranges during the fourth
quarter of 2014, was the biggest market for South African oranges. Another important market for South
African oranges during the same quarter was Europe, which absorbed 42.3% (57 984 tons) of total South
African orange exports. Europe was followed by Africa at 6.61% (9 061 tons), and the remaining 1% went
to America.
12
900000
800000
Volume in Tons
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Volume in Tons
Gross Value (R Million)
Q4 2013
151003
700
Q1 2014
1533
8
Q2 2014
154439
973
Q3 2014
834849
4740
Q4 2014
136780
693
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Gross value in Rands(millions)
Figure 12: Quartely exports of orange
Quarters
Source: Quantec Easydata
Volumes and values of grapefruits exported by South Africa during the past five quarters are presented in
Figure 13. Grapefruits worth R8 million were exported during the fourth quarter of 2014. The export value
was 97.14% lower than the quarterly export value in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 52.16%
lower than the quarterly export value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2014). The
decrease in export value on a quarter-on-quarter basis follows a decrease in the volume of grapefruits
exported during the fourth quarter of 2014 (see next paragraph).
A total volume of 1 072 tons of grapefruits were exported by South Africa during the fourth quarter of 2014.
This represented a 97.99 % decrease in the quarterly export volume from the previous quarter (quarter 3,
2014) and a 52.16% decrease in the export volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4,
2013). The quarter-on-quarter decrease in volumes exported was the result of decreased production during
the same period.
60% (644 tons) of the total grapefruits exported by South Africa during the fourth quarter of 2014 was
destined for the Asian market. Asia was followed by Europe, Africa and America at 25.27% (271 tons),
12.5% (132 tons) and 1.9 %( 21 tons) respectively.
13
160000
Volume in Tons
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Volume in Tons
Gross Value (R Million)
Q4 2013
3156
16
Q1 2014
82
0
Q2 2014
146546
782
Q3 2014
53309
270
Q4 2014
1072
8
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Gross value in Rands (millions)
Figure 13: Quartely exports of grapefruit
Quartely
Source: Quantec Easydata
1400
100000
1200
Volume in Tons
120000
1000
80000
800
60000
600
40000
400
20000
0
Volume in Tons
Gross Value (R Million)
200
Q4 2013
4109
40
Q1 2014
4986
55
Q2 2014
108148
1151
Q3 2014
103290
1216
Q4 2014
1538
15
0
Gross value in Rands (millions)
Figure14: Quartely exports of lemon and lime
Quarters
Source: Quantec Easydata
The quarterly export volumes and values of lemons and limes during the last five quarters are presented in
Figure 14 above. A total volume of 1 538 tons of lemons and limes were exported by South Africa during
the fourth quarter of 2014. The quarterly export value during the same quarter was R15 million. The volume
was 98.51% lower than the quarterly volume in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 62.56% lower
than the quarterly export volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). At the same
time the quarterly export value was 98.75% lower than the quarterly value of the previous quarter (quarter
3, 2014) and 61.64% lower than the quarterly value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4,
2013). Exports of lemons and limes usually peak during the third quarter of the year and are normally lower
during the fourth and first quarters. Therefore we can expect export volumes to drop in the next upcoming
quarter
14
Out of all lemons and limes exported by South Africa during the third quarter of 2014, 51% (781tons) was
absorbed by Africa. It was followed by Asia and Europe at 32% (492 tons) and 19% (249 tons) respectively.
Figure 15 presents the volumes and values of soft citrus exported during the last five quarters. Soft citrus
worth R10 million were exported during the fourth quarter of 2014. The export value was 98.66% lower than
the quarterly export value in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 70.65% more than the quarterly
export value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The decrease in export value on a
quarter-on-quarter basis follows a decline in the volume of soft citrus exported during the fourth quarter of
2014.
A total volume of 1 081 tons of soft citrus were exported by South Africa during the third quarter of 2014.
This represented a 98.35% decrease in the export volume from the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and
a 68.81% decrease in the export volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 3, 2013). The
quarter-on-quarter decrease in volumes exported was the result of decreased production during the same
period. Europe, which absorbed 53% (571 tons) of soft citrus exported by South Africa in the fourth quarter
of 2014, was South Africa’s biggest market. It was followed by Africa, Asia and America at 27% (291 tons),
12% (132 tons) and 8% (86 tons) respectively.
90000
900
80000
800
70000
700
60000
600
50000
500
40000
400
30000
300
20000
200
10000
100
0
Volume in Tons
Gross Value (R Million)
Q4 2013
3465
35
Q1 2014
996
11
Q2 2014
84887
807
Q3 2014
65476
764
Q4 2014
1081
10
Gross value in Rands(millions)
Volume in Tons
Figure 15: Quartely exports of soft citrus
0
Quarters
Source: Quantec Easydata
Volumes and values of other citrus products exported during the five quarters under review are illustrated in
Figure 16. A total volume of 817 tons of other citrus products worth R6 million were exported by South
Africa during the fourth quarter of 2014. The volume was 76.44% lower than the quarterly volume in the
previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 299% higher than the quarterly export volume at the same time in
the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). At the same time the quarterly export value was 74.39% lower than
15
the gross value of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 306% more than the gross value of the same
time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013).
Approximately 81% (665 tons) of the total other citrus products exported by South Africa during the fourth
quarter of 2014 was absorbed by Africa, with Asia absorbing 17% (145 tons) and the remaining 2% went to
Europe.
Figure 16: Quartely imports of other citrus
30
3500
25
Volume in Tons
3000
20
2500
2000
15
1500
10
1000
5
500
0
Volume in Tons
Gross Value (R Million)
Gross value in Rands (millions)
4000
Q4 2013
204
2
Q1 2014
149
3
Q2 2014
2151
17
Q3 2014
3467
25
Q4 2014
817
6
0
Quarters
Source: Quantec Easydata
The quarterly imports of oranges for the period under review are presented in Figure 17. The figure shows
that 450 tons of oranges worth a value of R3 million were imported by South Africa during the fourth quarter
of 2014. The volume was 77.95% lower than the quarterly volume in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014)
and 575% higher than the quarterly import volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4,
2014). At the same time the quarterly import value was 180% higher than the gross value of the previous
quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 344% higher compared to import gross value at the same time in the previous
season (quarter 4, 2013). Normally during the second and the third quarter of each year we do not import
most oranges due to very high productions domestically with minimal amounts imported during fourth
quarter and first quarter. 80% of all imports of oranges reported by South Africa during the fourth quarter
came from Africa; the remaining 20% came from Europe.
16
900000
800000
Volume in Tons
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Volume in Tons
Gross Value (R Million)
Q4 2013
151003
700
Q1 2014
1533
8
Q2 2014
154439
973
Q3 2014
834849
4740
Q4 2014
136780
693
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Gross value in Rands(millions)
Figure 12: Quartely exports of orange
Quarters
Source: Quantec Easydata
Volumes and values of grapefruits imported by South Africa during the last five quarters are presented in
Figure 18. As can be seen in the figure, South Africa did not imported about grapefruits during the fourth
quarter of 2014.The recorded volume is 100% more compared to the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014)
and 6.12 less than the previous season at the same time . Generally South Africa only imports grapefruit
during summer and autumn seasons when grapefruits are off season. When one takes a closer look at the
graph, the mentioned periods is quarter one and quarter four each year. One could expect South Africa to
further import oranges in the next upcoming quarter due to lower production of grapefruit domestically.
160000
Volume in Tons
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Volume in Tons
Gross Value (R Million)
Q4 2013
3156
16
Q1 2014
82
0
Q2 2014
146546
782
Quartely
Source: Quantec Easydata
17
Q3 2014
53309
270
Q4 2014
1072
8
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Gross value in Rands (millions)
Figure 13: Quartely exports of grapefruit
Import volumes and values for lemons and limes during the period under review are presented in Figure 19.
South Africa imported 505 tons worth the value of R8 million. The import volume is 100% less as compared
to previous quarter (quarter 2, 2014) and 103% more as compared to the previous season at the same time
(quarter 4, 2013). South Africa imports high amount of lemon and lime during quarter four and quarter one
due to lower availability of lemon and lime domestically. Europe exported 70 %( 353 tons) into South Africa,
America exported 25% (126 tons) and the remaining 5% (24 tons) was supplied by the Asia.
1400
100000
1200
Volume in Tons
120000
1000
80000
800
60000
600
40000
400
20000
200
0
Volume in Tons
Gross Value (R Million)
Q4 2013
4109
40
Q1 2014
4986
55
Q2 2014
108148
1151
Q3 2014
103290
1216
Q4 2014
1538
15
0
Gross value in Rands (millions)
Figure14: Quartely exports of lemon and lime
Quarters
Source: Quantec Easydata
90000
900
80000
800
70000
700
60000
600
50000
500
40000
400
30000
300
20000
200
10000
100
0
Volume in Tons
Gross Value (R Million)
Q4 2013
3465
35
Q1 2014
996
11
Q2 2014
84887
807
Quarters
Source: Quantec Easydata
18
Q3 2014
65476
764
Q4 2014
1081
10
0
Gross value in Rands(millions)
Volume in Tons
Figure 15: Quartely exports of soft citrus
The quarterly import volumes and values of soft citrus during the period under review are depicted in Figure
20. During the fourth quarter of 2014, South Africa did not import soft citrus. South Africa normally imports
soft citrus during quarter four and one of every season due to low production during that period. Therefore
one can expect imports of soft citrus to rise in the coming quarter.
As can be seen in Figure 21, 0.46 tons of other citrus products were imported by South Africa during the
fourth quarter of 2014. The import value during the same quarter was R 5 million. All imports of other citrus
products recorded by South Africa during the fourth quarter of 2013 came from Asia.
3.00
Volume in Tons
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Volume in Tons
Value in Rands
Q4 2013
0.03
2007
Q1 2014
2.30
83107
Q2 2014
0.02
1034
Q3 2014
0.46
14187
Q4 2014
3
81666
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Gross value in Rand (thousands
Figure 21: Quartely imports of other citrus
Quarters
Source: Quantec Easydata
6.
GROWTH, VOLATILITY & STABILITY ANALYSIS
Tables 1 – 5 present the results of growth and coefficient of variation estimations. They were calculated
using quarterly statistics and covered the same five-quarter period under review beginning in quarter 4 of
2013 and ending in quarter 4 of 2014. The coefficient of variation is a measure of volatility or stability. When
the coefficient of variation is less than one, the variable in question is said to be relatively stable, meaning
that there were minimal changes. When the coefficient of variation is more than one, it is said to be volatile,
meaning there were major changes during the period under review. Table 1 shows the coefficients of
variation of producer prices for the five quarters under review.
Table 1: Citrus industry variation coefficients on producer prices (Quarter 4, 2013 to Quarter 4,
2014)
Product
Orange
Grapefruit
Coefficient of Variation
0.32
0.53
19
Product
Lemon and lime
Soft citrus
Naartjies
Coefficient of Variation
0.12
0.17
0.55
Source: Calculated from data from Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
Producer prices for all citrus products displayed low levels of volatility during the period under review. This
is indicated by the coefficients of variation that were universally less than one (<1). These low values
indicate that on a weighted variance scale, the producer prices displayed minimal changes during the five
quarters (from quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014).
The estimates of growth and volatility of domestic production during the period under review are presented
in Table 2.
Table 2: Citrus industry growth rates & variation coefficients on total domestic production (Quarter
43 of 2013 to Quarter 4 of 2014)
Product
Orange
Subcategory
Growth Rate (%)
Volume
0.07
Gross Value
0.23
Coefficient of Variation
1.22
1.36
Grapefruit
Volume
Gross Value
-10.67
-6.89
1.70
1.69
Lemon & lime
Volume
Gross Value
-0.61
3.27
1.13
1.16
Soft citrus
Volume
Gross Value
-1.65
-7.38
1.32
1.38
Naartjie
Volume
Gross Value
Source: Calculated from data from Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
0.79
0.74
As shown in Table 2, the citrus industry generally experienced negative growth from quarter 4 of 2013 to
quarter 4 of 2014 in terms of volumes and gross value of domestic production, with the exception of orange
volumes of production and gross value of Lemon and limes which recorded a positive growth.
Table 2 also shows various levels of volatility for both volumes and gross values of total domestic
production of citrus products over the same period under review (quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014).
Low volatility was indicated by the coefficients of variation that were less than one (<1). The coefficients of
variation for all products were more than one except for naartjie which is less than one. This indicates that
on a weighted variance scale, they displayed maximum changes during the five quarters under review.
Only naartjie displayed less significant changes for the period under review.
The estimates of growth and volatility of sales at the NFPMs during the period under review are presented
in Table 3.
20
Table 3: Citrus industry growth rates & variation coefficients on sales at NFPMs (Quarter 4 of 2013
to Quarter 4 of 2014)
Product
Orange
Subcategory
Volume
Price/GV
Growth Rate (%)
Coefficient of Variation
0.36
-0.36
0.86
1.29
Grapefruit
Volume
Price/ GV
-23.99
31.57
0.61
0.70
Lemon & lime
Volume
Price/ GV
1.22
-1.21
0.07
0.07
Soft citrus
Volume
Price/ GV
16.55
-14.20
1.20
1.03
Naartjie
Volume
Price/ GV
-2.68
2.75
Source: Calculated from data from Statistics and Economic Analysis
0.75
0.35
It is evident from Table 3 that in terms of gross values of citrus products sold at NFPMs, all citrus products,
with exception of gross values of orange, lemon and lime, soft citrus and volumes of orange, lemon and
lime and naartjie experienced a positive growth rate during the period from quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of
2014.
Table 3 also shows various levels of volatility for both volumes and prices of the citrus products sold at the
NFPMs over the same period (quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014). Low volatility was indicated by the
coefficients of variation that were less than one (<1). The volumes and gross values for all products are
below one, indicating that they displayed minimal changes during the five quarters with exception of gross
value of orange and both volumes and gross value of soft citrus.
The estimates of growth and volatility of quarterly exports during the period under review are presented in
Table 4.
Table 4: Citrus industry growth rates & variation coefficients on exports (Quarter 4 of 2013 to
Quarter 4 of 2014)
Product
Orange
Subcategory
Growth Rate (%)
Volume
-2.44
Gross Value
-0.26
Coefficient of Variation
1.29
1.33
Grapefruit
Volume
Gross Value
-23.66
16.83
1.55
1.56
Lemon & lime
Volume
Gross Value
-21.78
-21.30
1.26
1.27
Soft citrus
Volume
Gross Value
-25.27
-26.40
1.31
1.29
21
Product
Other citrus
products
Subcategory
Growth Rate (%)
Volume
41.42
Gross Value
42.02
Coefficient of Variation
1.05
0.96
Source: Calculated from data from Quantec Easydata
As shown in Table 4 the citrus industry generally experienced a mixed growth rate trend in terms of export
from period quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014. The volumes and gross values of all the products grew
negatively with an exception of other citrus hitting an upward growth rate. The table also shows various
levels of volatility for both volumes and gross values of citrus products’ exports over the same period
(quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014). Low volatility was indicated by the coefficients of variation that
were less than one (<1). The volume and gross value of all products had coefficients of variation that were
more than one (>1) with the exception of other citrus products that has a coefficient of variation of less than
one (<1) for both volume and gross value. This means that they had low levels of volatility and therefore
displayed minimal changes during the five quarters under review. The estimates of growth and volatility of
quarterly imports during the period under review are presented in Table 5.
Table 5: Citrus industry growth rates & variation coefficients on the imports (Quarter 4 of 2013 to
Quarter 4 of 2014)
Product
Orange
Subcategory
Coefficient of Variation
Volume
Gross Value
Growth Rate (%)
61.20
45.17
Grapefruit
Volume
Gross Value
-1.57
-4.16
0.78
0.60
Lemon & lime
Volume
Gross Value
19.47
26.17
1.21
1.07
Soft citrus
Volume
Gross Value
-4.65
-5.47
0.92
0.14
Other citrus products
Volume
Gross Value
204
152
1.17
1.16
0.95
0.72
Source: Calculated from data from Quantec Easydata
The volume and gross value of orange, lemon and lime and other citrus products experienced a positive
import growth rate from period quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014. In addition the volume and gross
value of grapefruit and soft citrus experienced a negative growth rate.
The table also shows that the volumes and gross values of all products had low levels of volatility with
exception of lemon and lime and other citrus in terms of imports from quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of
2014. They had coefficients of variation that were less than one (<1). This means that they had low levels
of volatility meaning that on a weighted variance scale, they displayed fewer changes during the five
quarters under review.
22
7.
Acknowledgements
Acknowledgement is given to the following information sources:
Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis
www.daff.gov.za
Quantec Easydata
www.easydata.co.za
For more information contact:
Director: Marketing
Department of Agriculture
Private Bag X 15
Arcadia
0007
Tel: (012) 319 8455/6
Fax: (012) 319 8131
E-mail: [email protected]
Deputy Director :
Commodity Marketing
Tel: (012) 319 8072
Fax: (012) 319 8077
E-mail: [email protected]
Senior Agricultural Economist
Tel: (012) 319 8081
Fax: (012) 319 8077
E-mail: [email protected]
Websites: www.daff.gov.za
www.webapps.daff.gov.za/mis
Disclaimer: This document and its contents have been compiled by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the
purpose of profiling the citrus industry. Anyone who uses this information does so at his/her own risk. The views expressed in
this document are those of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries with regard to the agricultural industry, unless
otherwise stated. The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries therefore, accepts no liability that can be incurred
resulting from the use of this information.
23