Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
UK national population
projections in perspective:
How successful compared
to those in other European
countries?
Nico Keilman
Department of Economics
University of Oslo
Introduction
Compared to population forecasts of other
European countries, those made in the
United Kingdom during the past 30 years
had somewhat larger forecast errors for
fertility and smaller errors for mortality.
Migration forecasts in the UK were about
as accurate as the European average.
After controlling for various effects such as
relative data volatility both at the time a
projection is made and during the period
of the projection, there is no indication
that recent forecasts in European countries
have been more accurate than older ones.
Hence population forecasts are intrinsically
uncertain, and a forecast for the UK in
the form of probability distributions is
presented.
Nationnaal lSSt at at itsi st itci cs s
Natio
A recent article in this journal has analysed the accuracy of national
population projections made for the United Kingdom over the last fifty
years (Shaw 20071). The author concluded that the total UK population
has been projected reasonably accurately, but that this is largely a chance
result of compensating errors in the assumptions of fertility, mortality
and net migration. Fertility was overpredicted, mortality assumptions
in the projections were too pessimistic (that is, life expectancies were
too low), and net migration to the UK was underpredicted. In terms of
the age structure, the largest errors were for the very young and the very
old, while projections of the working age population have been quite
accurate. Fertility and mortality errors have reduced in more recent
projections, while migration errors have grown.
There is a growing literature, in which national population projections
are evalu­ated ex-post facto against observed statistics (for instance
Preston 19742; Calot and Chesnais 19783; Inoue and Yu 19794; Keyfitz
19815; Stoto 19836; Pflaumer 19887; Shaw 19948; Keil­man 19979,
200010, 200111; National Research Council 200012; Keilman and Pham
200413). These studies have shown, among other things, that projection
accu­racy is better for short than for long forecast durations, and that it
is better for large than for small populations. They also demonstrated
that there are considerable differences in accuracy within a projection,
that is, when broken down by region or other components. Because
of the extrapolative nature of population projections, fluctuations in
observed fertility, mortality and migration time-series are associated with
large projection errors. Finally, poor data quality tends to go together
with poor projection performance. This relationship is stronger for
mortality than for fertility, and stronger for short-term than for long-term
projections.
20
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Shaw’s article contributes to this literature. The aim of the current article
is to put his results into international perspective. How do the findings
for the UK compare with those in other countries? I shall report from a
research project, which evaluated the accuracy of national population
projections prepared by the statistical agencies of 14 European
countries. The countries are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany14, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal,
Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The projections were
made during 1950–2001, and I have evaluated projection results for the
years 1950–2002 against actual data. Projection results were assembled
from published and unpublished sources for the 14 countries. Actual
data for fertility, mortality, and migration are available from Council of
Europe publications (CoE, 200215). In some cases these data have been
supplemented by other sources. Details are available in Keilman and
Pham (200413). The recently created data base for UK projections (Shaw,
20071) was not available when the project was finished. Also, I shall refer
briefly to results reported for a few non-European countries: Australia,
Canada, Japan, and the United States.
Autumn 2007
I shall use the terms ‘projection’, ‘forecast’, and ‘prediction’
interchangeably. Although demographers interpret them slightly
differently, most users do not, and hence I consider them as equivalents.
The results must be interpreted with care. My intention is not to argue
that differences in accuracy between countries necessarily imply that
forecasters in some country were more skilled than those in other
countries. Large or small errors may simply indicate the ease or difficulty
of carrying out a successful forecast. The degree of success may depend
on a number of factors, such as the quality of the data that are available,
the volatility in the actual trends, policy measures unexpectedly
introduced by authorities, sudden political events that have an impact on
demographic developments, etc.
Box one
I shall present summary statistics for the errors in projection assumptions
for fertility, mortality, and net migration. In many cases, I use the Mean
Error (ME) and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The ME reflects the
bias in the assumed values, while the MAE indicates their precision. This
terminology (see Box one for further details) is the same as that used by
Shaw in his earlier article on UK projections. For fertility, I use the Total
Fertility Rate (TFR), for mortality the life expectancy at birth of men and
women, and for international migration the level of net migration.
Terminology
Fertility
In this article, I look at how the projections have performed as
predictors of future population change. I have analysed the error in
the projections of future total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth and
total net migration according to forecast duration. Two main related
measures are considered, the mean error and the mean absolute error.
Figure 1 shows the precision of the fertility assumptions by plotting the
mean absolute errors (MAE) in the TFR for the 14 European countries.
For each country, the mean is computed across several forecast rounds,
controlling for forecast duration. Each line represents one country. For
long forecast durations there were fewer observations than for short ones.
Therefore, in order to ensure observations are robust, I plotted in this and
the following graphs, for each country, only those mean values that were
based upon at least ten observations. The marked solid line gives the
MAE value for the pooled set of errors, that is, the errors for all countries
and forecast rounds combined, including those observations that were
left out from the country-specific means. The latter curve is based on
295 observations for one year ahead and 203, 94, and 16 observations
at durations of 10, 20, and 30 years ahead, respectively. For the UK I
have observed errors for projections made during the period 1970–2000
(results for earlier projections are now available from the data base for
UK projections (Shaw, 20071) but, as noted above, this was not available
when the analyses for this article were done).
The projection error is calculated to be the projected value of a
variable minus its actual value as currently estimated. (These ‘actual’
values may, of course, in some cases have been revised or be subject
to further revision, for example, following Censuses.) A positive error is,
therefore, an overprojection, that is, the projected value exceeded the
actual value and a negative error is an underprojection.
The forecast duration is the difference between the base year of the
projection and the calendar year for which the particular variable
is projected. For example, the 1981-based projection of the total
population at the year 2001 has a forecast duration of 20 years.
For each projection error and forecast duration, we have a series of
observations. So if we are considering the accuracy of projections
of the total population 20 years ahead, we may have a 1950-based
projection for 1970, a 1951-based projection for 1971 and so on. The
actual number of observations obviously depends on the frequency
with which projections were carried out in the respective countries.
It also depends on forecast duration: we have fewer observations for
long forecast durations than for short ones.
The mean error (ME) is the average of the projection errors for a
particular set of observations and the mean absolute error (MAE) is
the average of the projection errors irrespective of sign. For example,
suppose for a particular variable in a particular country, that we only
have observations from the 1951-based, 1961-based and 1971-based
projections for the projection error 30 years ahead. If these errors
were +10 per cent, +5 per cent and –3 per cent respectively, then the
mean error is 4 per cent and the mean absolute error is 6 per cent.
The mean error gives us a measure of bias; it tells us that, on average,
this variable was overprojected by 4 per cent. The mean absolute
error gives us a measure of precision; it tells us that, on average, the
difference between the projected value and the actual value was 6 per
cent. In this article I only present these mean errors where I have a
minimum of ten observations.
The pattern that emerges is that of slowly increasing errors. Shortterm forecasts are more precise than long-term forecasts, because
the likelihood that the factors which influence fertility may change is
obviously likely to increase with increasing forecast duration. Across
all 14 countries and all forecasts, the mean absolute error increases
from 0.06 children per woman in the first year of the forecast, to 0.3
for a forecast horizon of 15 years ahead, and 0.4 children per woman
25 years ahead. Although the patterns for the individual countries vary
greatly around the mean of the pooled errors, they are roughly consistent
with the overall picture. The figure illustrates that, except for the first
few years of the projection, MAEs for the UK are above the average.
This indicates that TFR assumptions for the UK might have been more
difficult to formulate than on average for the 14 countries.
Figure 2 shows that TFR forecasts after World War II in the 14 countries
were too high overall (that is, across all countries and all forecast
rounds). The mean error (ME) in the TFR is negligible in the first
forecast year, but it grows regularly to a little over 0.4 children per
woman 25 years ahead. This pattern reflects the well known fact that
fertility was overpredicted in projections made in the late 1960s and
the 1970s, a period when actual birth numbers fell rapidly throughout
Europe. Indeed the mean error is only slightly lower than the mean
21
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Autumn 2007
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
absolute error in Figure 1, reflecting the fact that almost all errors were
positive, that is, TFRs were consistently overpredicted. Two countries,
Finland and Denmark, differ from the international pattern, in that they
underpredicted their TFR by 0.1 children per woman 15–20 years ahead.
The reason is that the observation period for these two countries starts
when fertility had already reached a low level: 1972 in Finland and 1974
in Denmark. For short durations, the mean errors for UK projections are
close to the international average, but in the medium and long run they
are about 0.2 children per woman higher.
Figure 1
Mortality
Precision and bias for assumptions on the future life expectancy at birth
are illustrated in Figures 3 and 4. The first graph plots the means of the
absolute errors in the life expectancy at birth of men for the 14 European
countries. Some countries had fewer than ten observed errors, even at the
shortest forecast duration. There is no individual line for these countries,
but their errors are included in the mean of the pooled errors. By way
of exception, I included the UK (dashed line), although I had only
Observed mean absolute error for TFR in 14 countries
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
MAE UK
Children/woman
0.4
0.4
MAE all countries
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Forecast duration (yrs)
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Each unlabelled line represents one country. Data only shown where there are ten or more observations (unless otherwise indicated in text)
Children/woman
Figure 2
Observed mean error for TFR in 14 countries
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
Mean error UK
0.4
0.4
Mean error all countries
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
−0.1
−0.1
−0.2
−0.2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Forecast duration (yrs)
16
17
18
Each unlabelled line represents one country. Data only shown where there are ten or more observations (unless otherwise indicated in text)
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
22
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
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Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
up to eight observations at each duration. The figure shows a slightly
accelerating growth in inaccuracy by forecast horizon, with errors in
the life expectancy at birth increasing by 0.2 years per year for forecast
horizons 10–25 years, but somewhat slower rising errors for shorter
durations. UK errors are among the lowest. The line is quite stable, in
spite of the few observations.
The negative mean errors in Figure 4 indicate that life expectancy
forecasts have been too low on average. Across all 14 countries, the
Figure 3
Autumn 2007
underprediction amounted to 1.4 and 3.4 years of life expectancy at
forecast horizons of 10 and 20 years ahead, respectively. This confirms
earlier findings for selected industrialized countries (Keilman 19979).
Again, the errors for the UK are relatively small.
Similar graphs for women are not included here, because the general
patterns for women are very similar to those for men, both for the
MAE and the ME. However, for the UK, Shaw (20071) noticed that life
expectancy errors were greater for men than for women. This is also the
Observed mean absolute error for life expectancy at birth for men in 14 countries
6
6
5
5
4
4
Years
MAE all countries
3
3
2
2
1
1
MAE UK
Forecast duration (yrs)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Forecast duration (yrs)
16
0
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Each unlabelled line represents one country. Data only shown where there are ten or more observations (unless otherwise indicated in text)
Figure 4
Observed mean error for life expectancy at birth for men in 14 countries
1
1
0
0
Mean error UK
−1
−2
−2
Years
−1
Mean error all countries
−3
−3
−4
−4
−5
−5
−6
−6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Forecast duration (yrs)
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Each unlabelled line represents one country. Data only shown where there are ten or more observations (unless otherwise indicated in text)
23
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Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
case for a few other countries, in which actual mortality improved faster
for men than for women after 1970 (Keilman and Pham 200413). This
effect disappears when the average error is computed for all forecasts
(starting in 1950) in the 14 countries. But, in the multivariate analysis
of forecast errors discussed below, after controlling for a number of
disturbing factors, there was an independent effect of larger forecast
errors in the life expectancy of men compared to women.
Per thousand population
Figure 5
Migration
Net migration is defined, for a certain year, as the number of immigrants
minus the number of emigrants. To facilitate comparison across the
14 European countries, I have scaled all national migration numbers by
the national population sizes as of 1 January 2000. The latter data were
taken from the Council of Europe’s international data base (CoE 200215).
Observed mean absolute error in migration forecasts in 14 countries (scaled per 1000 population as at 1 January 2000)
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
MAE all countries
MAE UK
2
2
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14 15 16 17 18
Forecast duration (yrs)
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Each unlabelled line represents one country. Data only shown where there are ten or more observations (unless otherwise indicated in text)
Per thousand population
Figure 6
Observed mean error in migration forecasts in 14 countries (scaled 1000 population as at 1 January 2000)
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
−2
−2
Mean error UK
Mean error all countries
−4
−4
−6
−6
−8
−8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14 15 16 17 18
Forecast duration (yrs)
19
20
21
Each unlabelled line represents one country. Data only shown where there are ten or more observations (unless otherwise indicated in text)
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
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Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Thus the unit of measurement is ‘net migration per 1,000 population’
(note that the denominator is not a population at risk). All averages were
computed based on these scaled numbers. As an alternative, I could
have used the population in the year in question as the scaling factor.
However, I opted for a fixed factor based on the population in the year
2000 because the time series were also to be used in predictions of future
migration levels (Keilman and Pham, 200413). A fixed factor facilitates
scaling back to the original units of migration.
Many historical projections ignored migration. I have assumed that
the implicit assumption for those projections was a net migration level
of zero. In these cases, the signed error is simply the negative of the
observed level of net migration (that is, if the observed actual level was
+10,000, the projection error was –10,000). The assumption is justified,
because users are likely to have interpreted these projections as proper
forecasts, reflecting plausible future demographic developments.
Figure 5 shows that precision deteriorates slowly. The mean absolute
migration error for all countries taken together rises from just under two
per thousand in the first forecast years, to about three to four per thousand
at forecast durations of twenty years or more. For a country of the size of
the UK (approximately 60 million inhabitants in 2000) the international
average would imply an absolute error of 120,000 in the first forecast
years rising to about 240,000 migrants per year in thirty years’ time.
At the other end of the spectrum, for a country the size of Luxembourg
(436,000 persons in 2000), the error would be only approximately 900 to
1,700 migrants if the international average applied.
There are two distinct groups of countries. One group, consisting of the
Nordic countries, Belgium, Netherlands, and the UK have relatively
small errors. The fact that the UK belongs to this group (with otherwise
small populations) may possibly be explained by a population size effect.
This is discussed further below. The other group consists of Austria, West
Germany, Luxembourg, Portugal, and Switzerland, with mean errors
well above the average for the pooled data set. The forecasts of Germany
could be expected to be less accurate than the international average,
because of large immigration flows after the fall of the Berlin Wall in
1989. For Austria and Switzerland the large errors may be due to the fact
that many forecasts for these countries ignored migration (Austria: those
with base years 1962, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983; Switzerland: those
with base years 1951, 1956, 1964, 1967). The large errors for Portugal
may be partly explained by major revisions to the migration estimates
(Council of Europe 199816, 200215).
Migration has been consistently underestimated in historical forecasts.
In a number of cases, the error is negative simply because migration was
omitted, and the actual migration level was positive, as noted above. In
other cases, the assumption was just too low. Figure 6 shows that the
mean error in scaled migration reached minus three per thousand after 20
years and then stabilized around that level. The UK error was close to the
international average, at least for a forecast horizon up to 15 years.
Forecast accuracy for other industrialized
countries
Accuracy evaluations have been reported for fertility and mortality
forecasts for a few other industrialized countries, notably Australia
(Adam 199217, Wilson 200718), Canada (Preston 19742, George and Nault
199119), Japan (Preston 19742, Feeney 199020), New Zealand (Preston
19742), and the United States (Preston 19742, Ahlburg 198221, Long
198722, 199523, Mulder 200224). I refer to them only briefly, for two
reasons. First, many of those studies are more than ten years old. Second,
unlike the study for the 14 European countries, these other evaluations
are difficult to compare, since they use different measures for forecast
accuracy, they analyse the accuracy of different demographic variables,
they refer to very different time periods, etc.
Autumn 2007
The analyses of these countries both for fertility and for mortality
confirm the findings for the 14 European countries. Fertility assumptions
in forecasts made in the 1960s for Australia, Canada, and the United
States did not anticipate the steep fall in the 1970s. For instance, the
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) in the United States Census Bureau (USBC)
forecasts made in 1963 and 1966 were about 55 per cent too high after
only ten years (Mulder 200224, Table 6). Crude Death Rates (CDR) show
smaller errors in the assumptions than Crude Birth Rates, because CBR
errors are affected both by assumptions about the level of fertility (how
many children do women have on average?) and the timing of fertility
(at which age do they have their children?). CDR errors are only affected
by errors in assumptions about the timing of mortality: at which age
do individuals die on average? Thus the CDR assumptions in the 1963
and 1966 forecasts of the USBC after ten years were too high by 3 and
8 per cent, respectively. Later USBC forecasts show larger errors in the
CDR assumption, but these are 13 or 14 per cent at most (forecasts made
between 1969 and 1976; see Mulder 200224 Table 9).
Preston (19742) evaluated forecasts of age-specific mortality made
around 1950 and 1960 in Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and
the United States. He concluded that for most age/sex groups, mortality
declined faster than was foreseen in the forecasts, in particular for
women. Indeed, errors were often large since mortality was generally
assumed to remain constant in those old forecasts. Forecasts made in the
1970s and later have usually assumed a fall in future death rates, but the
decline has generally been underpredicted.
Are recent projections more accurate than older
ones?
Given the scientific progress in population studies and in demography,
one might expect that recent projections would be more accurate than
older ones. Nowadays, we have better data, more sophisticated methods
of analysis, and more refined theories of demographic behaviour than
30 years ago (Crimmins 199325; Preston 199326). The demographic and
statistical literature witnesses a continuous accumulation of knowledge.
This should have had positive consequences for the accuracy of
demographic forecasts, other factors remaining the same.
However, in a recent analysis I found that the projections published by
the statistical agencies in the 14 countries have not become more accurate
over the past 25 years (Keilman 200727). Scientific progress in population
studies during the past two to three decades may have been too slow
to keep up with less predictable demographic behaviour of populations
in those countries. I shall summarize the results here, and compare my
findings for the UK with those for other countries.
Recent forecasts have had a shorter life time than older ones and Figures
1 to 4 show that forecast errors increase with forecast duration. So, if
one wants to compare the accuracy of recent forecasts with that of older
forecasts, it is necessary to control for forecast duration. My statistical
analysis took this fact into account. It also allowed for the fact that
demographic behaviour may be more difficult to predict at some points
in time than others. An example is the 1960s and 1970s, when the baby
boom suddenly came to an end in many countries, and fertility fell
unexpectedly fast. Finally, I controlled for the possibility that there are
specific country circumstances which may make the population in some
countries easier to project than in others.
For fertility, I estimated a multivariate model with the absolute error in
the Total Fertility Rate as the dependent variable, with similar models
for mortality and migration28. Forecast base years are included as
independent variables in the form of dummy variables. I also control
for the effects of forecast period, forecast duration, and country. The
statistical analysis results in an indicator for each base year, which
summarizes forecast errors for the forecasts produced in that year. An
25
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Autumn 2007
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
increase in accuracy should be reflected in lower values of the forecast
error indicator for recent base years than for earlier base years.
intrinsically uncertain, and hence should be couched in probabilistic
terms. I shall come back to the issue of probabilistic forecasts at the end
of this article.
After controlling for all of these possible effects, the analysis suggests
that the accuracy of fertility forecasts improved until the end of the baby
boom but, since the mid 1980s, has not improved further. Also, there has
been no improvement in the accuracy of mortality forecasts after the end
of the 1970s. I found a moderate decrease in the accuracy of migration
forecasts after the early 1950s followed by a slight increase in the 1980s
and 1990s. But the recent improvement is not statistically significant.
Are projections more accurate in some countries
than others?
The statistical model includes a country effect. This effect reflects the
particular circumstances in the various countries which may relate to
the production of a population forecast: for example, the quality of the
available data, the relative volatility of demographic trends, government
policies which may have subsequently influenced demographic trends,
the number and the skills of the forecasting staff, and so on. In addition,
the country effect captures the fact that large populations may be easier to
forecast than smaller populations, other things being equal30. Such a size
effect has been demonstrated in forecasts of total population size, both
at the national and sub-national level (Smith et al 200131, NRC 200012).
Figures 7, 8, and 9 present the estimated country effects for precision in
These results suggest that scientific progress in population studies
during the previous two to three decades might have been too slow to
keep up with less predictable demographic behaviour of populations
in European countries. The emergence of consensual unions, the delay
of childbearing, the fast increase in life expectancy, and ever-growing
migration flows to European countries are some of the relevant factors
here (Keyfitz 198229). The lesson is that population forecasts are
Figure 7
Country effects for errors in TFR forecasts
Country effect index (UK=0.0)
0.4
Relative
country error
greater than
UK
0.2
0.0
Relative
country error
less than
UK
−0.2
−0.4
Au
ia
str
Figure 8
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Country effects for errors in life expectancy forecasts
Country effect index (UK−0.0)
0.6
Relative
country error
greater than
UK
0.3
0.0
Relative
country error
less than
UK
−0.3
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Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Figure 9
Autumn 2007
Country effects for errors in net migration forecasts
1.2
Country effect index (UK−0.0)
0.9
Relative
country error
greater than
UK
0.6
0.3
0.0
Relative
country error
less than
UK
−0.3
−0.6
Au
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the assumptions for the TFR, life expectancy at birth (men and women
combined), and net migration (scaled by population size). The estimates
for each country are shown with the UK as the reference category. Any
value larger than zero indicates that for the country concerned (having
controlled for base year, forecast period and forecast duration), the
country effects were on average larger than those for the UK. A value
lower than zero indicates that the country effects were lower than those
in the UK. The square marks are the estimates, while the vertical lines
represent the corresponding 95 per cent confidence intervals for the
estimates.
The multivariate analysis for fertility confirms the earlier findings of the
descriptive analysis (Figure 1). In many countries it was easier to predict
fertility accurately than in the UK. In Austria, Italy, and Sweden it was as
difficult as in the UK to predict fertility accurately, since the estimates for
these countries are not significantly different from zero. Only in Portugal
was the country effect significantly greater than in the UK.
Mortality, in terms of the life expectancy at birth, was easier to predict
accurately in the UK than in most other countries, see also Figure 3. The
estimated country effect for France in Figure 8 is below zero, but the
difference is not statistically significant. Also, the effects for Belgium,
Italy, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden are not significantly different
from that of the UK.
Figure 9 shows that it was significantly easier to predict migration
accurately in Finland, France, Norway, and Sweden than it was in the
UK. In Germany (pre and post unification)14, Luxembourg, Portugal and
Switzerland it was more difficult.32 A theory that there is a population
size effect16, that is, that errors are likely to be smaller in countries with
large than with small populations, receives very little support from this
graph. Only two of the 14 countries have effects that agree with this
theory: France and Luxembourg. Large countries such as Italy and the
UK have country effects that are similar to those for small countries such
as Austria, Belgium, Denmark, and the Netherlands. The findings for
three out of 14 countries (Finland, Norway, and Sweden) contradict the
assumed relationship, as they have small populations and small migration
errors. Germany is the most populous country of the 14, and has large
errors. However, this is explained by its extraordinarily large immigration
around 1990.32
ly
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Lu
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N
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rla
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eth
ay
rtu
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Po
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an
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S
Unfortunately, it is very difficult to determine what particular
circumstances in the UK, or any of the countries, may have accounted
for their better or poorer forecasting performance. Earlier I mentioned a
number of factors which might be related to forecast accuracy. Of these,
a possible population size effect was not supported by the data. I tested
a possible effect of the volatility in the actual trends (as measured by
the standard deviation and the absolute slope in the observed data in the
years preceding the forecast’s base year), but the result was negative
here as well. Other factors, such as the number of staff involved in the
production of the forecast, the quality of the data that are available,
policy measures unexpectedly introduced by authorities, or sudden
political events that have an impact on demographic developments, are
difficult to quantify, or the relevant data are not available.
Probabilistic population forecasts: quantifying
our ignorance
A recent review of demographic forecasting in industrialized countries
concludes that significant progress has been made in the past in
increasing our understanding of the causal factors and processes that
determine demographic events (Booth 200633). Yet this has not resulted in
improved theory-informed forecasts, as shown above. The author states
that demographic behaviour is too complex to be easily modelled and
forecast – it may be inherently unpredictable. This provides motivation
for handling forecast uncertainty in probabilistic terms.
Forecast errors are inherent to forecasting, and forecast users should
be informed about the magnitude of those errors. The type of analyses
reported here and in the previous article (Shaw 20071) give the user
useful information about the accuracy of old forecasts, but not for the
current one. However, a probabilistic forecast computes the future
population in the form of probability distributions, unlike traditional
deterministic forecasts which just give single estimates. Thus the user
of such a forecast is informed about the likely magnitude of the errors,
and how these errors vary across age groups or between the sexes. When
a decision maker is able to take forecast uncertainty into account, this
may lead to better decision making. As soon as he or she knows the
expected costs of a decision based on an erroneous forecast, an optimal
strategy can be chosen. Unfortunately, nearly all official forecasts are
deterministic, not probabilistic – Statistics Netherlands is the only
27
National Statistics
Autumn 2007
known exception (Alders and De Beer 199834). But demographers and
statisticians have developed methods to calculate probabilistic forecasts.
By way of illustration, I shall present a probabilistic forecast for the
United Kingdom.
The probabilistic forecast for the United Kingdom is part of a recent
large project, called ‘Uncertain Population of Europe’ (UPE). The aim
of that project was to compute the probability distributions of future
demographic variables, such as population size, age groups etc. for 18
countries in Europe (designated as the EEA+). These countries were
the 15 members of the European Union prior to the accession of the
new member states in 2004, plus Norway, Iceland, and Switzerland.
Except for Switzerland, these countries made up the so-called European
Economic Area, hence EEA+. Uncertainty was quantified by applying the
traditional cohort component model for each country 3,000 times, with
a specified base population, and probabilistically varying values for agespecific mortality, age-specific fertility, and net migration. The forecast
horizon was 2050. Time series analysis, historical forecast errors, and
expert opinion were used to formulate assumptions on central estimates
(point predictions) and uncertainty parameters for fertility, mortality and
international migration. These probabilistic forecasts were based on the
population at 1 January 2003 and results were first published in 2004.
More details can be found at www.stat.fi/tup/euupe/ and in Alho et al
(2006)35 and Alders et al (2007).36
The results of the 3,000 runs of the cohort component model for the
period up to 2050 were assembled in a data base containing the future
population for each country, and for the EEA+ as a whole, broken down
by age, sex, forecast year, and forecast run. For each variable of interest,
for example total population in 2030, or the old age dependency ratio in
2050, one can construct a histogram based on the 3,000 simulated values,
and read off prediction intervals for any chosen probability range. I shall
give some selected results for the UK.
The results show that, based on the probability assumptions made for the
UPE project, there is an 80 per cent chance that the population of the UK,
now 60 million, will number between 60 and 65 million in the year 2020,
and between 58 and 82 million in 2050; see Figure 10. For mid-2006,
the 80 per cent interval was 59.5 million to 60.2 million. However, ONS
has recently published a higher estimate for mid-2006 of 60.6 million.37
Three years ago, when the probabilistic forecast was published, such
a high number was considered very unlikely, although not impossible.
The probabilistic forecast expected lower net migration than has actually
occurred and was also based on official UK population estimates prior
to an upward revision published by ONS in September 2004. The range
for 2050 illustrates that long-term uncertainty is quite large. Although
continued growth to 2050 is probable, a decrease in population size
cannot be excluded. The UPE results indicate that the probability of the
UK population in 2050 being smaller than the current 60 million is an
estimated 14 per cent.
Figure 10 shows the probability distribution for the total population size
of the UK at 2050 based on the assumptions made for the UPE project.
The black solid line is the 50 per cent line (or median): chances are 50
per cent that population size in 2050 will be less than 69.4 million; but
a population larger than 69.4 million is equally likely. The red vertical
lines represent 80 per cent intervals. There is an 80 per cent probability
that population size in 2050 will be between 58.4 and 82.4 million. Thus
chances are 10 per cent that it will be less than 58.4 million, but also
10 per cent that it will be more than 82.4 million. Note that uncertainty
regarding predicted population size increases over time, as the 80 per
cent intervals widen rapidly. The latest official UK principal projection
(GAD, 200538), is shown as the dotted line on the chart. This is somewhat
above the UPE median forecast in the short to medium term (but well
within the 80 per cent interval) although very similar for the year 2050.
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
28
Figure 10
Millions
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
UPE probabilistic projection* of total population
size, 2000–50
85
85
80
80
75
75
70
70
2004-based official ONS/GAD
principal projection
65
65
▼
▼
60
▼
UPE probabilistic projection
for UK (median)
55
2000
2010
2020
Year
UPE 80%
prediction interval
2030
2040
60
55
2050
* UPE projection from ‘Uncertain Population of Europe’ research project. See text for details
Uncertainty is largest for the youngest and the oldest age groups, because
these are largely dependant on the accuracy of fertility and mortality
assumptions. So, for example, prediction intervals in 2030 for the
population younger than 20 years of age are rather wide. There is rather
less uncertainty about the size of the working age population as everyone
who will be aged over 25 at 2030 has already been born. Of course,
international migration also shows large prediction intervals around
expected levels, but its impact on the age structure a few decades into the
future is relatively modest. But by 2050, uncertainty has accumulated so
strongly, that intervals are very large, not only for the young, but also for
the old age groups, at least relative to the size of the median forecast (see
Figure 11).
Figure 11 shows the age pyramid for the UK in 2050 based on the
probability assumptions made for the UPE project. For example, as
shown by the orange areas, the probability is 80 per cent that the number
of boys aged 0–4 in the UK in 2050 will be between 1.1 million and 3.3
million. And, as indicated by the black line inside the orange areas, there
is a 50 per cent chance that there will be at most 1.9 million women aged
65–69 in the UK in 2050.
Figure 11
UPE probabilistic projection* for the UK
Age pyramid at 2050, median (black line), 80% prediction interval (orange area).
95+
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
4,000
Men
3,000
Women
2,000
1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Numbers in thousands
* UPE projection from ‘Uncertain Population of Europe’ research project. See text for details
4,000
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
These examples illustrate how one could use a probabilistic population
forecast to express forecast uncertainty. However, clearly, the results of a
probabilistic forecast also depend on the assumptions that the forecaster
has formulated. In this case, assumptions are needed for the form of
the probability distributions of the demographic rates. Hence one can
say that the prediction intervals of probabilistic forecasts are uncertain
themselves. Thus the producer of a probabilistic population forecast
should carefully document the choices that were made in the assumption
making process – similarly to the producer of a traditional forecast. But
there are also important differences between a probabilistic population
forecast and one that results from the traditional deterministic approach.
First, uncertainty is not quantified in a deterministic forecast. Second,
high and low variants in the traditional approach do not show a range of
likely future developments, as users may interpret. In the high variant,
migration is assumed high in every year of the forecast period (and vice
versa for the low variant). In other words, one assumes perfect serial
correlation. However, it is extremely unlikely that migration will follow
the path as defined in the high (or low) variant for an extended period,
say thirty or more years. In the official UK projections (GAD, 200538) it
is stressed that variants do not represent limits for future demographic
behaviour, and that they should be used for sensitivity analyses: ‘…these
migration variants should be regarded as giving an indication of the
implications for the future, if average migration levels were to differ
significantly from those assumed in the principal projection.’ But one
may question how useful such sensitivity analyses are for the user of the
forecast, when we know that it is extremely unlikely that the high and
the low variants will ever materialize. In contrast, a probabilistic forecast
does not assume perfect serial correlation (in any one run the level of
migration will be very volatile as opposed to a smooth high or low time
path in traditional variants). A user could consider one run, or just a
few runs, of the probabilistic forecast if the interest is in the possible
deviations from the central path.
A third drawback of the traditional deterministic approach is that the use
of high and low variants for more than one component in a particular
projection is inconsistent from a statistical point of view (Lee 199939,
Alho 199840). So when two or more mortality variants are formulated, in
addition to two or more fertility variants, high (or low) population growth
variants are often produced by combining high fertility with high life
expectancy (or low fertility with low life expectancy). In that case, any
year in which fertility is high, life expectancy is high as well. In other
words, one assumes perfect correlation between fertility and mortality,
in addition to perfect serial correlation for each of the two components.
Assumptions of this kind are unrealistic, and they cause inconsistencies:
a variant that is extreme for one variable need not be extreme for another
variable.
In his British Academy Annual Lecture on 1 December 200441, the Bank
of England’s Governor Mervyn King stressed that in a wide range of
collective decisions it is vital to think in terms of probabilities. We must
accept the need to analyse the uncertainty that inevitably surrounds
these decisions. In order that public discussion can be framed in terms
of risks, the public needs to receive accurate and objective information
about the risks. Transparency and honesty about risks should be an
essential part of both the decision-making process and the explanation of
decisions. If population projections are to inform policy decisions, then
uncertainty of these projections must be assessed. In some areas, greater
uncertainty might lead to postponement of action. In other policy arenas
such as education planning, greater uncertainty might indicate that the
best polices would be those most easily changed as the future unfolds.
For example, a school planner facing uncertain projections of enrolment
growth might decide to rent additional space for schools rather than
building or buying space. Explicitly estimating the degree of uncertainty
in population projections encourages consideration of alternative
population futures and the full range of implications suggested by these
alternatives (Lee and Tuljapurkar 200742).
Autumn 2007
But the public has great difficulty in understanding probabilities, and
handling them. Forecasters, whether occupied with weather, or inflation,
or population trends in the future, should develop appropriate techniques
for communicating uncertainty to the users of their services. The type of
charts as presented in Figure 10 for future population size of the UK, are
commonly used by the Bank of England for their inflation reports, and
the Met Office for their weather reports. Population forecasters should
also consider using such charts.
Acknowledgement
Parts of this article were written during my stay at the Centre for
Advanced Studies in Oslo, the hospitality of which I gratefully
acknowledge.
References
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Dans A.-C. Decouflé Traité élémentaire de prevision et de
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projections and analysis of ex post facto errors’. Paper Annual
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5. Keyfitz N (1981) The limits of population forecasting. Popula­tion
and Devel­opment Review 7, 579–93.
6. Stoto M (1983) The accuracy of population projections. Journal of
the American Statistical Association 78, 13–20.
7. Pflaumer P (1988) ‘Confidence intervals for population projections
based on Monte Carlo methods’. International Journal of
Forecasting 4, 135–42.
8. Shaw C (1994) Accuracy and uncertainty of the national population
projections for the United Kingdom. Population Trends 77, 24–32.
9. Keilman N (1997) ‘Ex-post errors in official population forecasts in
industrialized countries’. Journal of Official Statistics 13, 245–77.
10. Keilman N (2000) ‘Précision et incertitudes des prévisions nationales
de population’. Pp. 33–67 in C. Wattelar et J. Duchêne (red.): Le défi
de l’incertitude: Nouvelles approches en perspectives et prospective
démographiques. Actes de la Chaire Quetelet 1995. Louvain-laNeuve: Academia-Bruylant/L’Harmattan.
11. Keilman N (2001) ‘Data quality and accuracy of United Nations
population projections, 1950–95. Population Studies 55(2), 149–64.
12. National Research Council (2000) Beyond six billion: Forecasting
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on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington
DC: National Academy Press. Internet http://books.nap.edu/
books/0309069904/html/index.html.
13. Keilman N and Pham DQ (2004) Empirical errors and predicted
errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European
Economic Area. Discussion Paper no. 386. Statistics Norway: Oslo.
Available at www.ssb.no/publikasjoner/DP/pdf/dp386.pdf.
14. For Germany, I have fertility and mortality errors for the (former)
Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) for the period 1952–2002. For
migration, I have errors for the FRG in forecasts made between 1952
and 1989, and for the reunified Germany in forecasts made since 1990.
15. Council of Europe (2002) Recent demographic developments in
Europe 2002. Council of Europe Publishing: Strasbourg.
16. Council of Europe (1998) Recent demographic developments in
Europe 1998. Council of Europe Publishing: Strasbourg.
29
National Statistics
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
17. Adam A Y (1992) The ABS population projections: Overview and
evaluation. Journal of the Australian Population Association 9,
109–30.
18. Wilson T (2007). The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of
Statistics national population projections. Journal of Population
Research 24:1 1–27
19. George M V and Nault F (1991) The accuracy of Statistics Canada’s
demographic projections. Paper Annual Meeting of the PAA,
Washington DC, March 1987.
20. Feeney G (1990) The demography of aging in Japan: 1950–2025.
NUPRI Research Paper Series no. 55. NUPRI: Tokyo.
21. Ahlburg D (1982) How accurate are the U.S. Bureau of the Census
projections of total live births? Journal of Forecasting 1, 365–74.
22. Long J F (1987) The accuracy of population projection methods of
the U.S. Census Bureau. Paper Annual Meeting of the PAA, Chicago,
April/May 1987.
23. Long J F (1995) Complexity, accuracy, and utility of official
population projections. Mathematical Population Studies 5, 203–16.
24. Mulder T J (2002) Accuracy of the U.S. Census Bureau national
population projections and their respective components of change.
Population Division Working Paper Series no. 50. U.S. Census
Bureau: Washington.
25. Crimmins E M (1993) ‘Demography: The past 30 years, the present,
and the future’. Demography 30(4) 579–91.
26. Preston S H (1993) ‘The contours of demography: Estimates and
projections’. Demography 30(4) 593–606.
27. Keilman N (2007) European demographic forecasts have not become
more accurate during the past 25 years. Submitted. Available at
http://folk.uio.no/keilman/publications.html
28. All dependent variables are in logarithmic form.
29. Keyfitz N (1982) Can knowledge improve forecasts? Popula­tion and
Devel­opment Review 8, 729–51.
30. Two factors explain this finding. First, small populations are often
more strongly influenced by unforeseeable migration flows than large
populations. Second, forecasters often give less attention to small
populations than to large populations in a multi-population forecast.
So far, a size effect has not been tested for variables other than total
population. Because of the second explanation, one could expect to
find it for errors in migration forecasts. See comments in connection
with Figure 9.
31. Smith S K, Tayman J, and Swanson D (2001) State and Local
Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis. Kluwer
Academic/Plenum Publishers: New York. (The Plenum series on
demographic methods and population analysis).
32. In addition to main effects, the model for migration errors includes a
few interaction effects, in order to take into account that the effects
for some countries were very different for certain periods. (The
models for fertility and mortality errors include main effects only.)
The migration model includes interaction effects for Portugal with
the period 1970–74 (high emigration of labourers to other European
countries), and for the FRG, Germany, and Austria with the period
1990–94 (large immigration flows from Central and Eastern Europe
after the fall of the Berlin Wall). The estimates for these interactions
are 0.69, 0.74, 0.61, and 0.26, respectively. They have to be added
to the estimates in Figure 9, which shows main effects only. As a
consequence, the country effects for the FRG, Germany, and Portugal
become much larger, while Austria moves to the group of countries
for which migration was significantly more difficult to predict than
for the UK.
33. Booth H (2006) Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review.
International Journal of Forecasting 22, 547–81.
34. Alders, Maarten and Joop de Beer (1998) Kansverdeling van
de bevolkingsprognose (‘Probability distribution of population
forecasts’), Maandstatistiek van deBevolking 46, 8–11.
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
30
35. Alho J, Alders M, Cruijsen H, Keilman N, Nikander T, Pham D
Q (2006) New forecast: Population decline postponed in Europe.
Statistical Journal of the United Nations ECE 23, 1–10.
36. Alders M, Keilman N and Cruijsen H (2007) Assumptions for
long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries.
European Journal of Population 23, 33–69.
37. UK population grows to 60,587,000 in mid-2006. ONS News
Release (22 August 2007).
38. Government Actuary’s Department (2005) UK 2004-based national
population projections are available at: www.gad.gov.uk/Population/
index.asp
39. Lee R (1999) ‘Probabilistic approaches to population forecasting’,
in Lutz W, Vaupel J, and Ahlburg D (eds.). Frontiers of Population
Forecasting. Supplement to Vol. 24 of Population and Development
Review, 156–90.
40. Alho J M (1998) A stochastic forecast of the population of Finland.
Reviews 1998/4. Statistics Finland: Helsinki.
41. King M (2004) What fates impose: facing up to uncertainty. British
Academy lecture www.britac.ac.uk/news/release.asp?NewsID=154
42. Lee M. and Tuljapurkar S (2007) The Degree of Certainty in
Population Projections. Population Reference Bureau. Available at
www.prb.org/Articles/2007/PopulationProjections.aspx
Tables
Table*
1.1 (1)
1.2 (2)
Page
Population
International................................................................................. Selected countries
National
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
1.3 (4)
Subnational................................................................................... Government Office Regions
of England
1.4 (6)
Age and sex................................................................................... Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
1.5 (7)
Age, sex and legal marital status ......................................................England and Wales
1.6 (5)
Components of population change ...................................................Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
Vital statistics
2.1 (8)
Summary...................................................................................... Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
2.2 (new)
Key demographic and health indicators...................................... Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
3.1 (9)
3.2 (10)
3.3 (11)
32
35
36
37
40
42
43
45
Live births
Age of mother............................................................................... England and Wales
Outside of marriage: age of mother and type of registration...... England and Wales
Within marriage, within marriage to remarried women,
age of mother and birth order....................................................... England and Wales
48
Conceptions and abortions
4.1 (12)
Age of women at conception........................................................ England and Wales
(residents)
49
46
47
Expectation of life
5.1 (13)
(In years) at birth and selected age.............................................. Constituent countries of
. the United Kingdom
Deaths
6.1 (14)
Age and sex................................................................................... England and Wales
6.2 (15)
Subnational................................................................................... Government Office Regions
of England
7.1 (18)
7.2 (19)
7.3 (20)
International migration
8.1 (21)
Internal migration
9.1 (22)
9.2 (23)
9.3 (24)
Age and sex................................................................................... United Kingdom
Country of last residence............................................................. United Kingdom
Citizenship.................................................................................... United Kingdom
50
51
52
53
54
55
Movements within the United Kingdom..................................... United Kingdom
56
Marriage and divorce
Age and sex................................................................................... England and Wales
Remarriages: age, sex and previous marital status..................... England and Wales
Divorces: age and sex................................................................... England and Wales
57
58
59
* Numbers in brackets indicate former table numbers in editions of Population Trends prior to spring
1999 (No 95). Former tables 16 and 17 (Deaths by selected causes, and Abortions) now appear in
Health Statistics Quarterly.
Population Trends tables are also available in XLS or CSV formats via our website
www.statistics.gov.uk
Symbols
.. not available
: not applicable
–
p
nil or less than half the final digit shown
provisional
31
National Statistics
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
Population and vital rates: international
Table 1.1
Selected countries Year
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
United
Austria
Belgium
Cyprus1
Kingdom
Czech
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany2
Greece3
Hungary
Republic
Population (thousands)
1971
55,928
7,501
9,673
..
9,810
1976
56,216
7,566
9,818
498 10,094
1981
56,357
7,569
9,859
515 10,293
1986
56,684
7,588
9,862
545 10,340
1991
57,439
7,813
9,979
587
10,309
12
1996
58,164
7,959
10,137
661
10,315
2001
59,113
8,043
10,287
701 12
10,224
2002
59,322
8,084
10,333
710 12
10,201
2003
59,554
8,118
10,376
721 12
10,202
2004
59,834
8,175
10,421
737 12
10,207
2005
60,209
8,230 10,480 760 12
10,230 17,P
17,P
12
2006
..
8,266 10,511 766
10,280 P
Irish
Republic
4,963
5,073
5,121
5,120
5,154
5,262
1,369
1,435
1,482
1,534
1,566
1,416
4,612
4,726
4,800
4,918
5,014
5,125
51,251
52,909
54,182
55,547
57,055
58,026
78,313
78,337
78,408
77,720
79,984
81,896
8,831
9,167
9,729
9,967
10,247
10,709
10,370
10,590
10,712
10,631
10,346
10,193
2,992
3,238
3,443
3,543
3,526
3,626 18
5,359
5,374
5,387
5,401
5,411 P
5,427 17,P
1,364
1,359
1,354
1,349
1,350 1,345 17,P
5,188
5,201
5,213
5,228
5,250 5,270 P
59,322
59,678
60,028
60,381
60,870 61,350 P
82,340
82,482
82,520
82,501
82,470 82,370 P
10,950
10,988
11,024
11,062
11,083 17,P
11,125 17,P
10,188
10,159
10,130
10,107
10,090 10,077 17,P
3,839 18
3,917 18
3,996 18
4,044 18
4,130 18
4,240 18
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
1.0
1.7
3.0
..
5.8
4.4
9.6
4.9
6.5
0.1
7.6
1976–81
0.5
0.1
0.8
6.8
3.9
1.9
6.6
3.1
4.8
0.2
12.3
1981–86
1.2
0.5
0.1
11.7
0.9
0.0
7.0
4.9
5.0
–1.8
4.9
1986–91
2.7
5.9
2.4
15.4
–0.6
1.3
4.2
3.9
5.4
5.8
5.6
1991–96
2.5
3.7
3.6
25.2
0.1
4.2
–12.4
3.8
3.4
4.8
9.0
1996–01
3.3
2.1
2.6
12.1
–1.8
3.7
–7.3
2.5
4.5
1.1
4.5
2001–02
3.5
5.1
4.5
12.8
–2.2
2.8
–3.7
2.5
6.0
1.7
4.4
2002–03
3.9
4.2
4.2
15.5
0.1
2.4
–3.7
2.3
5.9
0.5
2.4
2003–04
4.7
7.0
4.3
22.2
0.5
2.6
–3.7
2.9
5.9
–0.2
3.4
2004–05
6.3
6.7
5.7
31.2
2.3
1.9
0.7
4.2
8.1
–0.4
1.9
2005–06
..
4.4
3.0
7.9
4.9
3.0
–3.7
3.8
7.9
–1.2
3.8
4.2
2.3
–1.5
–5.4
–3.0
–0.1
16.4
12.7
5.8
–1.0
4.3
11.7
–2.8
–2.9
–2.3
–1.7
–1.3
20.3
20.2
12.0
21.3
..
Live birth rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
14.1
13.3
13.4
1976–80
12.5
11.5
12.5
1981–85
12.9
12.0
12.0
1986–90
13.7
11.6
12.1
1991–95
13.2
11.8
12.0
1996–00
12.0
10.2
11.2
17.7
19.0
20.2
18.8
16.9
13.2
17.8
17.1
13.5
12.7
11.1
8.8
14.6
12.0
10.2
11.5
13.1
12.6
15.4
15.0
15.6
15.5
10.7
8.9
13.1
13.6
13.4
12.7
12.9
11.3
16.0
14.1
14.2
13.8
12.7
12.7
10.5
10.5
10.7
9.8
10.9
9.6
15.8
15.6
13.3
10.6
9.9
10.2
16.1
15.8
12.3
11.8
11.7
9.8
22.2
21.3
19.2
15.8
14.0
14.2
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
11.6
11.1
11.2
11.3
10.9
..
8.9
9.6
9.2
9.6
10.0
10.3
12.2
11.9
12.0
11.9
11.9
..
9.3
9.6
9.6
10.4
10.7
..
10.8
10.7
10.9
11.4
11.0
11.2
13.0
12.8
12.7
12.7
12.7
13.0
8.9
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.3
8.2
10.2
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.7
..
9.9
10.4
10.0
10.2
9.0
7.7
12.4
12.5
12.8
12.4
11.6
10.8
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.5
11.9
11.2
11.1
12.1
12.3
11.9
13.9
13.1
9.5
9.3
9.3
9.8
9.8
9.6
10.7
10.2
10.1
9.5
9.1
9.2
12.3
12.2
12.0
11.6
10.8
10.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.3
9.5
9.7
11.9
12.9
13.7
13.5
14.3
13.9
10.5
10.6
10.9
10.5
10.6
10.2
10.9
10.9
10.7
10.3
10.2
..
13.6
13.5
13.4
13.2
12.9
..
9.4
9.5
9.4
9.1
9.1
9.1
9.0
9.2
9.4
8.4
8.6
..
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.0
10.1
9.9
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.5
9.5
..
13.0
13.1
13.4
13.1
13.5
..
11.3 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.0 12.4 P
9.4
9.7
9.5
9.7
9.5
9.3
11.1
10.8
10.9
11.1
11.2
..
Death rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
11.8
12.6
12.1
1976–80
11.9
12.3
11.6
1981–85
11.7
12.0
11.4
1986–90
11.4
11.1
10.8
1991–95
11.1
10.4
10.4
1996–00
10.6
9.7
10.3
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
10.2 10.2 10.3 9.7
9.7 9.5P
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.1
9.1
8.9
10.1
10.2
10.4
9.8
..
..
6.9
7.3
7.2
7.1
7.2
..
Note:
Estimated population (mid-year), live birth and death rates up to the latest available data,
as given in the United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics (May 2007), the United Nations
Demographic Yearbook system, and the Eurostat Yearbook 2006 (May 2007).
1 Republic of Cyprus - Greek Cypriot controlled area only
2 Including former GDR throughout.
3 Greece - mid-year population excludes armed forces stationed outside the country but
includes alien forces stationed in the area.
4 Malta - including work and resident permit holders and foreigners residing in Malta.
5 Poland - excluding civilian aliens within the country but including civilian nationals
temporarily outside the country. Average year data for 2000 and 2001 contain revised data
according to the final results of the population census 2002.
6 Portugal - including the Azores and Madeira islands.
7 Spain - including the Balearic and Canary Islands.
8 The European Union consists of 25 member countries (EU25) - 1 May 2004 (10 new member
countries).
9 Including the Indian held part of Jammu and Kashmir, the final status of which has not yet
been determined.
National Statistics
32
9.5
9.5
9.3
9.4
9.7
..
15.1
15.5
15.4
15.3
14.8
..
11.0
10.2
9.4
9.1
8.8
8.5
7.9
7.5
7.2
7.0
6.6
..
10 Japan - excluding diplomatic personnel outside the country and foreign military and civilian
personnel and their dependants stationed in the area. Rates are based on births to or
deaths of Japanese nationals only.
11USA - excluding armed forces overseas and civilian citizens absent from the country for
extended periods.
12Indicates population estimates of uncertain reliability.
13Figures were updated taking into account the results of the 2002 All Russian Population
Census.
14Mid-year estimates have been adjusted for under-enumeration.
15For statistical purposes the data for China do not include those for the Hong Kong SAR,
Macao SAR and Taiwan province of China. Data for the period 1996 to 2000 have been
adjusted on the basis of the Population Census of 2000. Data from 2001 to 2004 have
been estimated on the basis of the annual national sample surveys of Population Changes.
Estimate of uncertain reliability. Death rates for 1999–2003 and birth rates for 2000–2003
were obtained by the Sample Survey of Population Change 2003 in China.
16Rate is for 1990–1995.
17As at 1 January - Eurostat Yearbook 2006 (May 2007).
18 Data refer to 15 April.
p provisional.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
Population and vital rates: international
Table 1.1
continued
Selected countries Year
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
United
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Kingdom
Luxem–
Malta4
bourg
Nether–
Poland5 Portugal6 Slovakia Slovenia
Spain7
Sweden
lands
EU–258
Population (thousands)
1971
55,928
1976
56,216
1981
56,357
1986
56,684
1991
57,439
1996
58,164 54,073
55,718
56,502
56,596
56,751
56,860
2,366
2,465
2,515
2,588
2,662
2,457
3,160
3,315
3,422
3,560
3,742
3,602
342
361
365
368
387
414
330
330
322
344
358
380
13,194
13,774
14,247
14,572
15,070
15,530
32,800
34,360
35,902
37,456
38,245
38,618
8,644
9,356
9,851
10,011
9,871
10,058
4,540
4,764
4,996
5,179
5,283
5,374
1,732
1,809
1,910
1,975
2,002
1,991
34,216
36,118
37,741
38,536
38,920
39,479
8,098 ..
8,222
420,258
8,320
428,563
8,370
433,555
8,617
440,927
8,841
447,113
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
56,978
57,157 57,605
58,175
58,610 58,880 P
2,355
2,339 2,325
2,313
2,30617,P
2,29517,P
3,481
3,469 3,454
3,436
3,410 P
3,390 P
442
446
450
453
460
460 17,P
393
396
399
401
40317,P
40417,P
16,046
16,149
16,225
16,282
16,320
16,340 P
38,251
38,232 38,195
38,180
38,17417,P
38,15717,P
10,293
10,368 10,441
10,502
10,550
10,57017,P
5,380
5,379 5,379
5,382
5,390
5,400 P
1,992
1,996 1,997
1,997
2,000
2,010 P
40,721
41,314 42,005
42,692
43,400 P
44,100 P
8,896
8,925
8,958
8,994
9,030
9,030 P
452,146
453,988
456,056
458,254
460,616P
..
9.9
8.9
9.7
11.2
7.3
6.8
4.0
2.7
3.4
–1.1
0.2 0.1
11.1
9.0
4.2
2.0
2.9
6.3
3.1
2.4
1.2
5.9
5.1
1.2
..
4.0
2.3
3.4
2.7
2.3
2.0
0.5
0.0
1.5
5.0
14.6
16.7
16.4
16.6
16.1
3.3
3.7
4.0
4.0
0.0
4.1
4.6
4.8
5.2
..
59,113 59,322 59,554 59,834 60,209
..
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
1.0
6.1
8.4
9.8
10.7
0.0
1976–81
0.5 2.8 4.1 6.5 2.5
– 4.8
1981–86
1.2 0.3 5.8 8.1 1.8 13.7
1986–91
2.7 0.5 5.7 10.2 10.2 8.1
1991–96
2.5 0.4 –12.8
– 1.7 13.9 8.4
1996–01
3.3 0.4 – 8.3
– 6.7 13.5 6.8
8.8
6.9
4.6
6.8
6.1
6.6
–
9.5
9.0
8.7
4.2
2.0
1.9
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
7.6
7.6
5.0
5.0
2.5
6.4
4.7
3.5
2.3
1.2
0.5 7.3
–0.2
1.0 7.00.0
0.45.8
0.6
0.24.6
1.5
0.41.91.9
3.5 3.9 4.7
6.3
..
3.1
7.8
9.9
7.5
4.6
–
–
–
–
–
6.8
6.0
5.2
3.0
4.8
Live birth rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
14.1
16.0
14.4
1976–80
12.5
12.6
13.9
1981–85
12.9
10.6
15.2
1986–90
13.7
9.8
15.3
1991–95
13.2
9.6
10.8
1996–00
12.0
9.2
8.0
– 3.4 9.0
– 4.3 9.0
– 5.2 6.7
– 7.6 15.5
– 5.9 0.0
–
–
–
–
–
16.5
10.6
3.2
–2.8
3.8
4.7
16.4
15.4
16.0
15.8
13.1
10.4
11.6
11.2
11.6
12.2
13.3
13.1
17.5
17.0
15.3
16.0
14.0
12.0
14.9
12.6
12.2
12.8
12.8
12.6
17.9
19.3
19.0
15.5
12.9
10.4
20.3
17.9
14.5
11.9
11.4
11.3
19.7
20.3
18.0
15.8
13.3
10.7
16.4
16.3
14.2
12.3
10.0
9.1
19.2
17.1
12.8
10.8
9.8
9.5
13.5
11.6
11.3
13.2
13.3
10.2
..
..
..
..
..
10.6
8.3
8.6
9.0
8.8
9.4 ..
9.1
8.7
8.9
8.9
9.0
9.2
12.4
12.0
11.8
11.8
11.8
..
9.8
9.6
9.8
9.7
9.6
..
12.6
12.5
12.3
11.9
11.5
11.3
9.6
9.3
9.2
9.3
9.6
..
11.0
11.0
10.8
10.4
10.4
..
9.5
9.5
9.6
10.0
9.3
..
8.8
8.8
8.7
9.0
9.1
..
10.0
.10.2
10.5
10.6
10.7
..
10.3
10.7
11.1
11.2
11.2
11.7
10.4
10.3
..
..
..
..
Death rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
11.8
9.8
11.6
1976–80
11.9
9.7
12.6
1981–85
11.7
9.5
12.8
1986–90
11.4
9.4
12.4
1991–95
11.1
9.7
14.8
1996–00
10.6
9.8
13.9
9.0
10.1
10.6
10.3
12.0
11.5
12.2
11.5
11.2
10.5
9.8
9.0
9.0
9.0
8.2
7.4
7.6
7.7
8.3
8.1
8.3
8.5
8.8
8.8
8.4
9.2
9.6
10.0
10.2
9.8
11.0
10.1
9.6
9.6
10.4
10.5
9.4
9.8
10.1
10.1
9.9
9.7
10.0
9.8
10.3
9.6
9.7
9.5
8.5
8.0
7.7
8.2
8.7
9.1
10.5
10.9
11.0
11.1
10.9
10.6
..
..
..
..
..
10.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
11.6
11.8
11.9
12.0
12.8
13.2
8.4
8.4
9.0
7.6
8.0
..
7.6
7.8
7.7
7.2
..
..
8.7
8.8
8.7
8.4
8.4
8.3
9.5
9.4
9.6
9.5
9.7
..
10.2
10.2
10.4
9.7
..
..
9.7
9.6
9.7
9.6
9.9
..
9.3
9.4
9.7
9.3
9.4
..
8.9
8.9
9.2
8.2
8.9
..
10.5
10.6
10.4
10.1
10.2
10.0
9.7
9.8
..
..
..
..
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
11.3 11.3 11.7 12.1
12.0 12.4P
10.2 10.2 10.3
9.7 9.7 9.5P
9.2
9.4
9.4
9.7
9.5
..
9.6
9.8
10.2
9.4
9.7
..
14.0
13.9
13.9
13.9
14.2 ..
See notes on first page of table.
33
National Statistics
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1.1
continued
Autumn 2007
Population and vital rates: international
Selected countries Year
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
United
EU–25 Kingdom
Russian
Australia
Canada
Federation
8
New
China
India9
Japan10
Zealand
Population (thousands)
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,684
57,439
58,164 ..
420,258
428,563
433,555
440,927
447,113
130,934
135,027
139,225
144,154
148,245
148,16013
13,067
14,033
14,923
16,018
17,284
18,31114
22,026
23,517
24,900
26,204
28,031
29,61114
2,899
3,163
3,195
3,317
3,477
3,732
852,290 15
937,170 15
1,008,460 15
1,086,733 15
1,170,100 15
1,217,550 15
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
59,113 59,322 59,554
59,834 60,209
..
452,146
453,988
456,056
458,254
460,616P
..
145,97613
145,30613
144,56613
143,82113
143,50013
..
19,41314
19,64114 19,87314
20,11114
20,33014,P
20,61014,P
31,02114
31,37314
31,66914
31,97414
32,27014,P
32,62014,P
3,880
3,939
4,009
4,061 4,100 4,140 P
1,271,850 15
1,280,400 15
1,288,400 15
1,296,075 15
1,303,720 15
..
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
1.0
1976–81
0.5
1981–86
1.2
1986–91
2.7
1991–96
2.5 1996–01
3.3
..
4.0
2.3
3.4
2.7
2.3
6.3
6.2
7.1
5.7
–1.7
–2.9
14.8
12.7
14.7
15.8
11.9
12.0
13.5
11.8
10.5
13.9
11.3
9.5
18.2
2.0
7.6
9.6
14.7
7.9
19.9
15.2
15.5
15.3
10.3
8.9
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
4.1
4.6
4.8
5.1
..
–4.6
–5.1
–5.2
–2.2
..
11.7
11.8
12.0
10.9
13.8
11.3
9.4
9.6
9.3
10.8
15.2
17.8 13.0
9.6
9.8
6.7
6.2
6.0
5.9
..
3.5 3.9 4.7
6.3
..
USA11
551,311
617,248
675,185
767,199
851,897
942,15712
105,145
113,094
117,902
121,672
123,964
125,757
207,661
218,035
229,958
240,680
252,639
269,394
1,035,06612
1,050,64012
1,068,21412
1,085,60012
1,097,00012
..
127,130
127,400 127,650
127,670
127,770
127,760
285,108
287,985
290,850
293,623
296,410
..
23.9
18.8
27.3
22.1
21.1
19.7
15.1
8.5
6.4
3.8
2.9
2.2
10.0
10.9
9.3
9.9
12.1
11.7
15.0
16.7 16.3 10.5
..
2.1
2.0
0.2
0.8
–0.1
10.1
9.9
9.5
9.5
..
18.6
14.9
12.6
10.6
..
9.5
15.3
15.2
15.7
16.0
..
14.3
Live birth rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
14.1
..
1976–80
12.5
..
1981–85
12.9
..
1986–90
13.7
..
1991–95
13.2
..
1996–00
12.0
10.6
..
..
..
..
10.2
8.6
18.8
15.7
15.6
15.1
..
13.4
15.9
15.5
15.1
14.8
..
11.4
20.4
16.8
15.8
17.1
..
14.9
27.2 18.6 19.2
..
18.5 16
..
35.6
33.4
..
..
..
..
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
9.0
9.6
10.2
10.5
..
..
12.7
12.8
12.6
12.7
12.9
12.9
10.8
10.5
10.6
10.5
..
..
14.4
13.7
14.0
14.3
..
..
13.4 15
12.9 15
12.4 15
12.3 15
..
..
25.4
25.0
24.8
24.1
..
..
9.2
9.1
8.8
8.7
..
..
Death rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
11.8
..
1976–80
11.9
..
1981–85
11.7
..
1986–90
11.4
..
1991–95
11.1
..
1996–00
10.6
10.0
..
..
..
..
13.7
14.3
8.2
7.6
7.3
7.2
..
6.9
7.4
7.2
7.0
7.3
..
7.2
8.4
8.2
8.1
8.2
..
7.2
7.3 6.6 6.7
..
..
..
15.5
13.8
..
..
..
..
6.4
6.1
6.1
6.4
..
7.4
9.1
8.7
8.6
8.7
..
8.5
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006
15.4
16.1
16.4
16.0
..
..
6.6
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.4
6.5
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.3
..
..
7.2
7.1
7.0
7.0
..
..
6.4 15
6.4 15
6.4 15
6.4 15
..
..
8.4
8.1
8.0
7.5
..
..
7.6
7.7
8.0
8.1
..
..
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.2
..
..
11.3 11.3 11.7 12.1
12.0
12.4P
10.2 10.2 10.3
9.7 9.7 9.5P
10.4
10.3
..
..
..
..
9.7
9.8
..
..
..
..
See notes on first page of table.
National Statistics
34
14.1
13.9
14.1
14.0
..
..
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1.2
Autumn 2007
Population: national
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution
Mid-year
United
Kingdom
Great
Britain
Estimates
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,684
57,439
54,388
54,693
54,815
55,110
55,831
49,152
49,459
49,634
49,999
50,748
46,412
46,660
46,821
47,188
47,875
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,811
2,873
5,236
5,233
5,180
5,112
5,083
1,540
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
57,714
57,862
58,025
58,164
58,314
56,078
56,218
56,376
56,503
56,643
50,986
51,116
51,272
51,410
51,560
48,102
48,229
48,383
48,519
48,665
2,884
2,887
2,889
2,891
2,895
5,092
5,102
5,104
5,092
5,083
1,636
1,644
1,649
1,662
1,671
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
58,475
58,684
58,886
59,113
59,322
56,797
57,005
57,203
57,424
57,625
51,720
51,933
52,140
52,360
52,570
48,821
49,033
49,233
49,450
49,647
2,900
2,901
2,907
2,910
2,923
5,077
5,072
5,063
5,064
5,055
1,678
1,679
1,683
1,689
1,697
2003
2004
2005
2006
2005 by age group (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
59,554
59,834
60,209
..
57,851
58,124
58,485
..
52,794
53,046
53,390
..
49,856
50,093
50,432
..
2,938
2,952
2,959
..
5,057
5,078
5,095
5,117
1,703
1,710
1,724
..
5.7
13.6
40.2
21.8
11.0
7.6
5.7
13.5
40.2
21.9
11.1
7.7
5.7
13.6
40.3
21.8
11.0
7.7
5.7
13.5
40.4
21.7
10.9
7.7
5.4
13.8
37.5
22.8
12.1
8.4
5.2
13.0
39.6
23.0
11.7
7.4
6.4
15.7
41.3
20.4
10.0
6.3
60,533
61,892
63,304
64,727
66,002
66,644
58,800
60,124
61,504
62,897
64,151
64,786
53,691
55,005
56,378
57,770
59,042
59,700
50,714
51,967
53,276
54,605
55,823
56,457
2,977
3,037
3,102
3,165
3,219
3,243
5,108
5,120
5,126
5,127
5,109
5,086
1,733
1,767
1,800
1,830
1,851
1,858
5.3
11.9
36.1
24.5
10.8
11.3
5.3
11.9
36.1
24.5
10.8
11.4
5.4
12.0
36.2
24.4
10.7
11.3
5.4
12.0
36.4
24.4
10.6
11.2
5.0
11.8
34.0
24.4
11.9
12.9
4.7
11.1
34.0
25.3
12.6
12.4
5.4
12.8
35.7
24.6
11.0
10.5
Projections1
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2029
2029 by age group (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–642
65–742
75 and over
England
England
Wales
Scotland
and Wales
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 National projections based on mid-2004 population estimates.
2 Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes.
Tel no. for all queries relating to population estimates - 01329 813318
35
National Statistics
Northern
Ireland
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1.3
Autumn 2007
Population: subnational
Government Office Regions of England
Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution
Mid-year
North
North
East
West
Yorkshire
and The
Humber
East
Midlands
West
East
London
Midlands
South
East
South
West
Estimates
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
2,679
2,671
2,636
2,594
2,587
7,108
7,043
6,940
6,833
6,843
4,902
4,924
4,918
4,884
4,936
3,652
3,774
3,853
3,908
4,011
5,146
5,178
5,187
5,180
5,230
4,454
4,672
4,854
4,999
5,121
7,529
7,089
6,806
6,774
6,829
6,830
7,029
7,245
7,468
7,629
4,112
4,280
4,381
4,548
4,688
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
2,594
2,589
2,583
2,576
2,568
6,847
6,839
6,828
6,810
6,794
4,954
4,960
4,961
4,961
4,958
4,056
4,072
4,092
4,108
4,120
5,246
5,249
5,257
5,263
5,262
5,154
5,178
5,206
5,233
5,267
6,844
6,874
6,913
6,974
7,015
7,673
7,712
7,763
7,800
7,853
4,734
4,757
4,782
4,793
4,827
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2,561
2,550
2,543
2,540
2,538
6,792
6,773
6,774
6,773
6,783
4,958
4,956
4,959
4,977
4,993
4,133
4,152
4,168
4,190
4,223
5,271
5,272
5,270
5,281
5,304
5,302
5,339
5,375
5,400
5,422
7,065
7,154
7,237
7,322
7,371
7,889
7,955
7,991
8,023
8,044
4,849
4,881
4,917
4,943
4,968
2003
2004
2005
2005 by age group (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
2,539
2,545
2,558
6,805
6,827
6,846
5,009
5,039
5,064
4,252
4,280
4,306
5,320
5,334
5,365
5,463
5,491
5,542
7,388
7,429
7,518
8,080
8,110
8,164
4,999
5,038
5,068
5.3
13.3
39.2
22.8
11.8
7.7
5.6
13.9
39.5
22.1
11.3
7.5
5.7
13.8
39.7
22.0
11.2
7.7
5.5
13.6
39.2
22.6
11.3
7.8
5.9
14.0
39.3
21.8
11.3
7.7
5.7
13.7
38.5
22.4
11.4
8.1
6.6
12.7
48.9
18.1
8.1
5.7
5.6
13.7
39.0
22.4
11.1
8.2
5.1
13.2
36.9
23.0
12.4
9.4
2,554
2,570
2,590
2,612
2,631
2,638
6,871
6,965
7,072
7,185
7,284
7,331
5,104
5,246
5,390
5,535
5,669
5,738
4,335
4,458
4,580
4,703
4,817
4,874
5,373
5,452
5,539
5,630
5,710
5,749
5,568
5,731
5,898
6,067
6,224
6,308
7,591
7,875
8,164
8,438
8,678
8,807
8,205
8,397
8,603
8,823
9,036
9,150
5,113
5,275
5,440
5,611
5,775
5,863
5.0
11.6
35.1
24.4
12.0
11.9
5.3
12.2
35.7
24.5
11.1
11.2
5.4
12.1
36.2
24.3
10.9
11.1
5.0
11.7
34.1
25.0
11.7
12.4
5.6
12.6
35.3
24.2
10.7
11.7
5.2
12.0
33.8
24.9
11.4
12.7
6.4
12.0
44.9
23.5
7.0
6.2
5.3
12.1
35.1
24.7
10.8
12.0
4.7
11.2
32.7
25.0
12.4
14.0
Projections1
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2029
2029 by age group (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–642
65–742
75 and over
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 These projections are based on the mid-2004 population estimates and are consistent with the 2004-based national projections produced by the Government Actuary’s Department and
presented in Table 1.2.
2 Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes.
Tel no. for all queries relating to population estimates:- 01329 813318.
National Statistics
36
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1.4
Autumn 2007
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24 25–34 35–44 45–59 60–64 65–74 75–84 85–89
90 and
over
Under
16–
65M/60F1
16 64M/59F1 and over
United Kingdom
Persons
1981
1986
1991
1996
56,357
56,684
57,439
58,164
730
748
790
719
2,726
2,886
3,077
3,019
8,147
7,143
7,141
7,544
9,019
9,200
8,168
7,231
8,010
8,007
8,898
9,131
6,774
7,711
7,918
7,958
9,540
9,212
9,500
10,553
2,935
3,069
2,888
2,785
5,195
5,020
5,067
5,066
2,677
2,971
3,119
3,129
..
716
626
711
..
..
248
317
12,543
11,645
11,685
12,018
33,780
34,725
35,197
35,498
10,035
10,313
10,557
10,649
1998 1999
2000
2001
2002
58,475
58,684
58,886
59,113
59,322
713
704
682
663
661
2,930
2,896
2,869
2,819
2,753
7,649
7,684
7,652
7,624
7,601
7,079
7,090
7,139
7,261
7,403
8,948
8,795
8,646
8,475
8,256
8,285
8,474
8,678
8,846
9,002
10,767
10,887
11,011
11,168
11,316
2,835
2,877
2,900
2,884
2,890
4,979
4,948
4,940
4,947
4,969
3,211
3,230
3,249
3,296
3,345
736
746
755
753
739
344
354
364
377
388
12,013
12,011
11,959
11,863
11,783
35,746
35,928
36,138
36,406
36,622
10,717
10,745
10,788
10,845
10,916
2003
2004
2005
59,554
59,834
60,209
679
705
716
2,703
2,684
2,712
7,542
7,477
7,382
7,575
7,720
7,871
8,070
7,937
7,897
9,108
9,192
9,246
11,424
11,517
11,624
2,943
3,021
3,114
5,005
5,033
5,048
3,401
3,435
3,424
706
703
756
399
409
419
11,712
11,646
11,598
36,828
37,064
37,368
11,014
11,125
11,244
Males
1981
1986
1991
1996
27,412
27,542
27,909
28,287
374
384
403
369
1,400
1,478
1,572
1,547
4,184
3,664
3,655
3,857
4,596
4,663
4,146
3,652
4,035
4,022
4,432
4,540
3,409
3,864
3,949
3,954
4,711
4,572
4,732
5,244
1,376
1,463
1,390
1,360
2,264
2,206
2,272
2,311
922
1,060
1,146
1,187
..
166
166
201
..
..
46
65
6,439
5,968
5,976
6,148
17,646
18,142
18,303
18,375
3,327
3,432
3,630
3,764
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
28,458
28,578
28,690
28,832
28,963
365
361
350
338
339
1,503
1,485
1,469
1,445
1,409
3,916
3,934
3,920
3,906
3,895
3,570
3,577
3,606
3,672
3,754
4,444
4,367
4,292
4,215
4,107
4,109
4,200
4,298
4,382
4,460
5,342
5,400
5,457
5,534
5,604
1,388
1,409
1,420
1,412
1,414
2,293
2,289
2,294
2,308
2,327
1,240
1,259
1,278
1,308
1,339
215
221
225
227
226
73
77
81
85
89
6,151
6,152
6,128
6,077
6,037
18,486
18,582
18,685
18,827
18,945
3,821
3,845
3,878
3,928
3,982
2003
2004
2005
29,108
29,271
29,479
349
361
367
1,384
1,375
1,389
3,864
3,833
3,785
3,850
3,933
4,018
4,018
3,954
3,933
4,514
4,553
4,579
5,653
5,694
5,746
1,439
1,476
1,519
2,354
2,374
2,389
1,371
1,394
1,403
219
224
248
94
99
103
6,002
5,970
5,946
19,068
19,210
19,390
4,038
4,091
4,143
Females
1981
1986
1991
1996
28,946
29,142
29,530
29,877
356
364
387
350
1,327
1,408
1,505
1,472
3,963
3,480
3,487
3,687
4,423
4,538
4,021
3,579
3,975
3,985
4,466
4,591
3,365
3,847
3,968
4,005
4,829
4,639
4,769
5,309
1,559
1,606
1,498
1,426
2,931
2,814
2,795
2,755
1,756
1,911
1,972
1,942
..
550
460
509
..
..
202
252
6,104
5,678
5,709
5,870
16,134
16,583
16,894
17,123
6,708
6,881
6,927
6,885
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
30,017
30,106
30,196
30,281
30,359
348
343
333
324
323
1,427
1,412
1,399
1,375
1,344
3,733
3,750
3,732
3,718
3,706
3,509
3,513
3,533
3,589
3,649
4,504
4,428
4,353
4,260
4,149
4,176
4,273
4,380
4,465
4,542
5,425
5,487
5,554
5,634
5,712
1,447
1,468
1,481
1,473
1,476
2,686
2,659
2,646
2,640
2,641
1,971
1,971
1,971
1,987
2,006
521
525
530
526
512
271
277
283
292
299
5,861
5,859
5,832
5,786
5,747
17,260
17,346
17,453
17,579
17,677
6,895
6,900
6,911
6,917
6,934
2003
2004
2005
30,446
30,563
30,730
331
343
349
1,319
1,309
1,323
3,677
3,644
3,597
3,725
3,787
3,853
4,052
3,983
3,964
4,594
4,640
4,667
5,771
5,823
5,878
1,504
1,545
1,595
2,651
2,659
2,659
2,030
2,041
2,022
486
478
508
305
310
316
5,710
5,676
5,652
17,760
17,854
17,978
6,976
7,034
7,100
England and Wales
Persons
1981
1986
1991
1996
49,634
49,999
50,748
51,410
634
654
698
637
2,372
2,522
2,713
2,668
7,085
6,226
6,248
6,636
7,873
8,061
7,165
6,336
7,086
7,052
7,862
8,076
5,996
6,856
7,022
7,017
8,433
8,136
8,407
9,363
2,607
2,725
2,553
2,457
4,619
4,470
4,506
4,496
2,388
2,655
2,790
2,801
383
461
561
639
157
182
223
285
10,910
10,161
10,247
10,584
29,796
30,647
31,100
31,353
8,928
9,190
9,400
9,474
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
51,720
51,933
52,140
52,360
52,570
631
625
607
589
589
2,594
2,566
2,544
2,502
2,445
6,740
6,779
6,757
6,740
6,726
6,212
6,228
6,275
6,387
6,520
7,925
7,800
7,682
7,536
7,349
7,304
7,475
7,661
7,816
7,962
9,552
9,656
9,764
9,898
10,027
2,503
2,542
2,564
2,549
2,553
4,411
4,381
4,372
4,377
4,395
2,875
2,891
2,907
2,947
2,990
661
671
680
677
664
311
319
328
340
351
10,599
10,608
10,572
10,495
10,435
31,591
31,771
31,977
32,226
32,435
9,530
9,554
9,591
9,639
9,700
2003
2004
2005
52,794
53,046
53,390
606
629
639
2,402
2,388
2,413
6,677
6,621
6,537
6,681
6,817
6,959
7,190
7,073
7,039
8,062
8,140
8,195
10,116
10,188
10,272
2,599
2,669
2,757
4,427
4,451
4,463
3,039
3,067
3,056
634
633
681
360
370
379
10,381
10,327
10,287
32,627
32,837
33,114
9,786
9,882
9,989
Males
1981
1986
1991
1996
24,160
24,311
24,681
25,030
324
335
356
327
1,218
1,292
1,385
1,368
3,639
3,194
3,198
3,393
4,011
4,083
3,638
3,202
3,569
3,542
3,920
4,020
3,024
3,438
3,504
3,489
4,178
4,053
4,199
4,659
1,227
1,302
1,234
1,205
2,020
1,972
2,027
2,059
825
951
1,029
1,067
94
115
150
182
32
35
42
59
5,601
5,208
5,240
5,416
15,589
16,031
16,193
16,247
2,970
3,072
3,248
3,367
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
25,201
25,323
25,438
25,574
25,702
323
321
311
301
302
1,331
1,315
1,303
1,281
1,251
3,451
3,471
3,462
3,453
3,446
3,135
3,144
3,172
3,231
3,307
3,942
3,880
3,823
3,758
3,664
3,627
3,711
3,802
3,881
3,955
4,744
4,793
4,842
4,907
4,967
1,230
1,250
1,259
1,252
1,253
2,041
2,036
2,040
2,052
2,069
1,115
1,132
1,148
1,175
1,203
194
200
204
206
205
66
70
73
77
81
5,428
5,434
5,416
5,376
5,346
16,355
16,452
16,556
16,688
16,799
3,417
3,437
3,466
3,510
3,557
2003
2004
2005
25,841
25,988
26,179
311
322
327
1,230
1,223
1,236
3,422
3,395
3,352
3,394
3,473
3,553
3,588
3,531
3,511
4,006
4,043
4,070
5,008
5,040
5,082
1,274
1,307
1,347
2,092
2,109
2,122
1,231
1,251
1,259
199
203
225
85
90
94
5,320
5,294
5,275
16,914
17,041
17,205
3,607
3,653
3,699
Females
1981
1986
1991
1996
25,474
25,687
26,067
26,381
310
319
342
310
1,154
1,231
1,328
1,300
3,446
3,032
3,050
3,243
3,863
3,978
3,527
3,134
3,517
3,509
3,943
4,056
2,972
3,418
3,517
3,528
4,255
4,083
4,208
4,704
1,380
1,422
1,319
1,252
2,599
2,498
2,479
2,437
1,564
1,704
1,761
1,734
289
346
411
457
126
148
181
227
5,309
4,953
5,007
5,168
14,207
14,616
14,908
15,106
5,958
6,118
6,152
6,107
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
26,519
26,610
26,702
26,786
26,868
308
305
296
288
287
1,264
1,251
1,241
1,220
1,194
3,289
3,308
3,296
3,287
3,280
3,077
3,083
3,103
3,156
3,214
3,983
3,920
3,859
3,778
3,684
3,677
3,763
3,859
3,935
4,007
4,808
4,863
4,923
4,992
5,059
1,272
1,292
1,304
1,297
1,300
2,370
2,345
2,332
2,326
2,326
1,760
1,759
1,758
1,771
1,787
467
472
476
471
460
244
249
255
263
270
5,171
5,175
5,155
5,119
5,090
15,235
15,318
15,421
15,538
15,635
6,113
6,117
6,126
6,129
6,143
2003
2004
2005
26,953
27,057
27,211
295
307
312
1,172
1,164
1,177
3,256
3,226
3,185
3,286
3,344
3,406
3,602
3,542
3,528
4,056
4,098
4,124
5,108
5,148
5,190
1,325
1,362
1,410
2,335
2,341
2,342
1,808
1,816
1,798
436
429
456
275
280
285
5,061
5,033
5,013
15,714
15,796
15,909
6,179
6,229
6,290
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes.
Tel no. for all enquiries relating to population estimates:- 01329 813318
37
National Statistics
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1.4
continued
Autumn 2007
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24 25–34 35–44 45–59 60–64 65–74 75–84 85–89
90 and
over
Under
16–
65M/65F1
16 64M/59F1 and over
England
Persons
1981
1986
1991
1996
46,821
47,188
47,875
48,519
598
618
660
603
2,235
2,380
2,560
2,523
6,678
5,869
5,885
6,255
7,440
7,623
6,772
5,985
6,703
6,682
7,460
7,667
5,663
6,478
6,633
6,638
7,948
7,672
7,920
8,822
2,449
2,559
2,399
2,310
4,347
4,199
4,222
4,217
2,249
2,501
2,626
2,631
362
435
529
602
149
172
210
269
10,285
9,583
9,658
9,985
28,133
28,962
29,390
29,639
8,403
8,643
8,827
8,895
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
48,821
49,033
49,233
49,450
49,647
598
592
575
558
558
2,453
2,427
2,406
2,366
2,312
6,356
6,394
6,375
6,359
6,345
5,869
5,881
5,923
6,032
6,155
7,524
7,412
7,304
7,171
6,993
6,915
7,079
7,257
7,407
7,548
8,999
9,097
9,199
9,327
9,448
2,353
2,391
2,411
2,395
2,397
4,140
4,114
4,107
4,113
4,130
2,698
2,713
2,727
2,764
2,804
623
632
641
638
625
293
301
309
321
331
10,003
10,014
9,980
9,908
9,853
29,868
30,044
30,243
30,487
30,683
8,950
8,975
9,010
9,055
9,111
2003
2004
2005
49,856
50,093
50,432
575
597
606
2,273
2,260
2,287
6,300
6,247
6,169
6,304
6,432
6,570
6,843
6,732
6,701
7,643
7,718
7,772
9,533
9,600
9,682
2,438
2,503
2,586
4,159
4,181
4,191
2,852
2,879
2,870
596
594
640
340
349
357
9,804
9,754
9,721
30,862
31,059
31,330
9,190
9,280
9,381
Males
1981
1986
1991
1996
22,795
22,949
23,291
23,629
306
317
336
309
1,147
1,219
1,307
1,294
3,430
3,010
3,011
3,198
3,790
3,862
3,439
3,023
3,377
3,357
3,721
3,818
2,856
3,249
3,311
3,302
3,938
3,822
3,957
4,390
1,154
1,224
1,159
1,133
1,902
1,853
1,900
1,932
777
897
970
1,003
89
108
141
172
30
33
39
55
5,280
4,911
4,938
5,110
14,717
15,147
15,302
15,358
2,798
2,891
3,050
3,161
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
23,794
23,916
24,030
24,166
24,288
306
304
294
285
286
1,258
1,243
1,232
1,212
1,183
3,254
3,274
3,266
3,257
3,251
2,960
2,969
2,995
3,053
3,123
3,743
3,689
3,638
3,580
3,492
3,436
3,517
3,604
3,681
3,753
4,470
4,516
4,562
4,624
4,682
1,157
1,176
1,184
1,176
1,176
1,916
1,913
1,917
1,928
1,944
1,047
1,063
1,078
1,103
1,128
183
188
192
194
193
62
66
69
73
77
5,123
5,129
5,113
5,075
5,047
15,462
15,558
15,661
15,793
15,899
3,209
3,229
3,256
3,298
3,342
2003
2004
2005
24,415
24,554
24,741
295
306
311
1,164
1,158
1,171
3,228
3,203
3,164
3,204
3,278
3,355
3,418
3,364
3,346
3,802
3,837
3,866
4,721
4,752
4,792
1,195
1,225
1,263
1,965
1,981
1,992
1,156
1,175
1,182
187
191
212
80
85
89
5,024
5,000
4,984
16,003
16,122
16,283
3,388
3,431
3,474
Females
1981
1986
1991
1996
24,026
24,239
24,584
24,890
292
301
324
293
1,088
1,161
1,253
1,229
3,248
2,859
2,873
3,056
3,650
3,761
3,333
2,961
3,327
3,325
3,739
3,849
2,807
3,229
3,322
3,336
4,009
3,850
3,964
4,432
1,295
1,335
1,239
1,177
2,445
2,346
2,323
2,286
1,472
1,604
1,656
1,628
273
326
388
430
119
140
171
214
5,004
4,672
4,720
4,876
13,416
13,815
14,088
14,281
5,605
5,752
5,777
5,734
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
25,027
25,117
25,203
25,284
25,358
292
288
281
273
272
1,195
1,183
1,174
1,154
1,129
3,102
3,121
3,109
3,102
3,095
2,908
2,912
2,928
2,979
3,031
3,781
3,724
3,667
3,591
3,501
3,479
3,562
3,653
3,726
3,795
4,529
4,581
4,637
4,702
4,766
1,196
1,215
1,227
1,219
1,220
2,224
2,201
2,190
2,185
2,186
1,651
1,650
1,649
1,661
1,676
440
444
448
444
433
230
235
240
248
254
4,880
4,885
4,867
4,834
4,806
14,406
14,486
14,582
14,694
14,783
5,741
5,746
5,755
5,757
5,769
2003
2004
2005
25,441
25,539
25,691
280
291
296
1,109
1,103
1,116
3,072
3,044
3,005
3,100
3,155
3,215
3,424
3,368
3,356
3,841
3,881
3,907
4,812
4,849
4,890
1,243
1,278
1,322
2,194
2,200
2,200
1,696
1,704
1,688
409
403
428
260
264
269
4,780
4,754
4,737
14,859
14,936
15,048
5,802
5,849
5,906
Wales
Persons
1981
1986
1991
1996
2,813
2,811
2,873
2,891
36
37
38
34
136
143
153
146
407
357
363
381
434
438
393
352
383
369
402
409
333
378
389
379
485
464
486
541
158
166
154
147
272
271
284
279
139
154
164
170
21
26
32
37
8
10
13
17
626
578
589
598
1,663
1,686
1,711
1,714
525
547
573
578
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2,900
2,901
2,907
2,910
2,923
34
33
32
32
30
141
139
138
136
132
384
385
383
382
380
343
347
352
356
366
401
388
378
365
356
390
395
403
409
415
553
559
565
572
579
150
151
152
154
156
271
267
265
264
265
177
178
180
183
185
38
39
39
39
39
18
18
19
20
20
596
594
591
587
582
1,723
1,727
1,734
1,739
1,752
581
580
581
584
589
2003
2004
2005
2,938
2,952
2,959
31
32
32
129
127
127
377
374
368
377
385
389
347
341
338
418
422
422
583
588
590
161
166
171
268
270
272
187
188
186
38
39
42
20
21
21
577
572
567
1,765
1,778
1,783
596
602
609
Males
1981
1986
1991
1996
1,365
1,362
1,391
1,401
18
19
20
17
70
73
78
74
209
184
186
195
221
221
199
179
193
186
199
203
168
190
194
187
240
231
242
269
73
79
74
72
118
119
128
128
48
54
60
64
5
7
8
10
2
2
2
3
321
297
302
306
871
885
891
890
173
181
198
206
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
1,407
1,408
1,408
1,409
1,414
17
17
16
16
16
72
72
71
69
68
197
198
196
196
195
174
176
177
179
183
199
192
185
178
172
192
194
198
200
202
274
277
280
283
286
73
74
75
75
77
125
124
124
124
125
68
69
71
73
74
11
11
12
12
12
4
4
4
4
5
305
305
303
301
299
894
895
895
895
900
208
208
210
212
215
2003
2004
2005
1,426
1,434
1,438
16
16
17
66
66
65
194
192
189
191
196
199
170
167
165
204
206
205
287
289
290
79
82
84
127
128
130
75
76
77
12
12
13
5
5
5
297
294
291
911
918
922
219
222
225
Females
1981
1986
1991
1996
1,448
1,449
1,482
1,490
18
18
19
16
66
70
75
71
199
173
177
186
213
217
194
173
190
184
203
206
165
188
195
192
246
233
244
272
85
87
80
75
154
152
156
151
91
100
104
106
16
20
24
27
6
8
10
13
305
282
288
293
791
801
820
825
352
366
375
373
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
1,492
1,493
1,499
1,502
1,509
16
16
15
15
15
69
68
67
66
65
187
187
186
186
185
169
171
175
177
182
202
196
192
187
183
198
201
206
209
212
278
282
285
289
293
76
77
77
78
80
146
144
142
141
140
109
109
109
110
111
27
27
28
27
27
14
15
15
15
16
290
289
288
286
283
829
832
840
844
852
373
371
371
372
374
2003
2004
2005
1,512
1,518
1,521
15
15
16
63
62
61
184
182
180
186
189
190
178
174
172
214
216
217
296
299
300
82
85
88
141
142
142
112
112
110
26
26
28
16
16
16
281
278
276
855
859
861
377
380
384
See notes on first page of table.
National Statistics
38
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1.4
continued
Autumn 2007
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24 25–34 35–44 45–59 60–64 65–74 75–84 85–89
90 and
over
Under
16–
65M/60F1
16 64M/59F1 and over
Scotland
Persons
1981
1986
1991
1996
5,180
5,112
5,083
5,092
69
66
66
59
249
257
258
252
780
656
634
643
875
863
746
651
724
739
795
798
603
665
696
722
880
849
853
925
260
273
265
259
460
435
441
448
232
252
259
256
35
42
51
57
14
15
19
24
1,188
1,061
1,021
1,019
3,110
3,161
3,151
3,151
882
890
912
922
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
5,077
5,072
5,063
5,064
5,055
58
56
53
52
51
239
234
230
224
217
644
643
636
629
622
628
625
628
633
639
766
743
717
696
669
749
762
774
782
788
941
951
962
979
993
261
262
263
262
262
445
444
445
447
449
262
265
267
272
276
59
59
59
59
58
26
27
28
29
30
1,003
995
985
970
955
3,145
3,144
3,141
3,150
3,150
929
933
937
944
950
2003
2004
2005
2006
5,057
5,078
5,095
5,117
52
54
54
55
212
210
211
213
614
609
600
588
648
653
659
668
648
635
629
628
793
796
794
790
1,008
1,025
1,042
1,058
265
270
273
280
452
455
457
456
281
286
286
287
55
54
59
63
31
31
32
32
943
935
929
922
3,156
3,175
3,191
3,213
958
968
975
983
Males
1981
1986
1991
1996
2,495
2,462
2,445
2,447
35
34
34
30
128
131
132
128
400
336
324
328
445
438
377
327
364
371
394
392
298
331
345
355
424
410
415
454
118
127
124
122
194
184
192
198
77
86
91
93
8
10
13
15
3
3
3
5
610
543
522
521
1,603
1,636
1,623
1,616
282
283
299
310
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2,439
2,437
2,432
2,434
2,432
30
29
28
26
26
122
120
118
115
111
329
329
326
322
319
315
313
315
319
324
374
362
347
337
325
367
372
377
379
382
463
469
474
483
490
124
125
125
125
125
198
198
199
200
202
96
98
100
103
106
16
16
17
17
17
5
6
6
6
7
513
510
505
497
489
1,610
1,609
1,606
1,610
1,612
316
318
322
327
331
2003
2004
2005
2006
2,435
2,446
2,456
2,469
26
28
28
28
108
107
107
109
314
312
307
301
329
332
335
340
315
310
309
310
383
384
382
380
496
503
511
517
126
129
131
135
204
207
208
208
108
111
112
113
16
16
18
20
7
7
7
8
483
479
476
472
1,616
1,627
1,635
1,649
336
341
345
349
Females
1981
1986
1991
1996
2,685
2,649
2,639
2,645
33
32
32
28
121
126
126
123
380
320
309
315
430
424
369
324
359
368
402
406
305
334
351
367
456
439
437
470
142
146
141
137
265
250
249
250
155
166
168
164
27
32
38
42
11
12
16
20
579
518
499
498
1,506
1,525
1,528
1,535
600
606
612
612
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2,638
2,635
2,631
2,630
2,623
28
27
26
26
25
116
114
112
109
106
315
314
310
307
303
313
312
313
314
315
392
381
369
359
344
382
390
397
403
406
478
483
488
496
504
137
138
138
137
137
248
246
246
246
247
166
166
166
169
171
43
43
43
43
41
21
22
22
23
23
490
486
480
473
466
1,535
1,535
1,535
1,540
1,538
614
614
616
617
619
2003
2004
2005
2006
2,623
2,632
2,639
2,648
25
26
26
27
104
103
103
104
300
297
293
287
318
321
324
328
332
325
320
317
410
412
411
410
512
521
531
541
139
141
142
145
248
248
249
247
173
175
174
174
39
38
41
43
24
24
25
25
460
457
453
450
1,540
1,549
1,556
1,564
622
627
630
634
Northern Ireland
Persons
1981
1986
1991
1996
1,543
1,574
1,607
1,662
27
28
26
24
106
107
106
99
282
261
260
266
271
277
256
244
200
217
240
257
175
190
200
220
227
227
241
266
68
71
70
70
116
115
121
123
57
64
69
72
..
16
14
15
..
..
6
7
444
423
417
415
874
917
945
993
224
234
246
253
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
1,678
1,679
1,683
1,689
1,697
24
23
22
22
22
97
96
95
93
91
264
262
259
255
253
239
237
237
240
243
257
252
247
243
238
231
237
243
248
251
275
279
284
290
296
71
73
73
74
75
122
122
123
123
125
74
75
75
77
79
16
16
16
16
16
7
7
7
7
7
411
408
403
397
393
1,010
1,014
1,020
1,030
1,037
257
258
259
262
266
2003
2004
2005
1,703
1,710
1,724
21
22
23
89
87
88
251
248
245
246
250
253
233
229
228
254
256
257
301
305
310
78
81
84
126
127
128
81
82
83
16
16
16
8
8
9
388
383
381
1,044
1,052
1,064
271
275
280
Males
1981
1986
1991
1996
757
768
783
810
14
14
13
12
54
55
54
51
145
134
133
136
140
142
131
124
102
109
119
128
87
95
100
109
109
110
118
131
32
33
32
33
50
50
53
54
21
23
26
27
..
4
4
4
..
..
1
1
228
217
213
212
454
474
487
511
75
77
83
87
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
819
818
820
824
829
12
12
11
11
11
50
49
49
48
47
135
134
133
131
130
121
119
120
122
124
128
125
122
120
117
114
117
119
122
123
135
138
141
144
147
34
35
35
35
36
54
54
55
56
56
28
29
29
30
31
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
211
209
207
204
202
520
521
524
529
534
89
89
90
92
94
2003
2004
2005
833
836
844
11
11
12
46
45
45
129
127
126
126
128
130
115
113
113
124
125
126
149
151
153
38
39
41
58
58
59
31
32
32
5
5
5
2
2
2
199
197
196
538
542
550
95
97
99
Females
1981
1986
1991
1996
786
805
824
851
13
13
13
11
52
52
52
49
137
127
127
130
130
135
125
120
98
107
121
129
88
96
100
110
118
118
123
135
37
38
38
37
66
65
67
69
37
41
44
45
..
12
10
11
..
..
4
6
216
206
203
203
420
442
458
482
150
157
163
167
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
859
861
862
865
868
12
11
11
10
11
47
47
46
45
44
129
128
126
124
123
118
117
118
119
119
129
127
125
123
120
117
120
124
126
128
139
141
143
146
149
37
38
38
38
39
68
68
68
68
68
46
46
46
47
48
11
11
11
11
11
6
6
6
6
6
201
199
196
193
191
490
493
497
501
504
168
169
169
170
173
2003
2004
2005
870
874
880
10
11
11
43
42
43
122
121
119
120
122
123
118
116
115
129
130
131
152
154
157
40
42
43
68
69
69
49
50
50
11
11
11
6
6
7
189
187
186
506
509
514
175
178
181
See notes on first page of table.
39
National Statistics
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1.5
Autumn 2007
Population: age, sex and legal marital status
England and Wales Mid-year
Numbers (thousands)
Total
population
Single
Males
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Females Total
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Total
Aged
16 and over
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
36,818
37,486
38,724
39,837
40,501
4,173
4,369
5,013
5,625
5,891
12,522
12,511
12,238
11,867
11,636
187
376
611
917
1,187
682
686
698
695
727
17,563
17,941
18,559
19,103
19,441
3,583
3,597
4,114
4,617
4,817
12,566
12,538
12,284
12,000
11,833
296
533
828
1,165
1,459
2,810
2,877
2,939
2,953
2,951
19,255
19,545
20,165
20,734
21,060
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
40,827
40,966
41,121
41,325
41,569
6,225
6,337
6,450
6,582
6,721
11,310
11,240
11,183
11,143
11,113
1,346
1,379
1,405
1,433
1,456
733
734
735
732
731
19,614
19,690
19,773
19,890
20,022
5,168
5,288
5,406
5,526
5,650
11,433
11,353
11,284
11,235
11,199
1,730
1,781
1,827
1,875
1,927
2,881
2,855
2,832
2,800
2,772
21,212
21,276
21,349
21,435
21,547
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
41,865
42,135
42,413
42,719
43,103
6,894
7,076
7,261
7,461
7,685
11,090
11,015
10,940
10,863
10,800
1,482
1,535
1,590
1,644
1,695
733
731
728
726
723
20,198
20,357
20,520
20,694
20,904
5,798
5,961
6,128
6,306
6,515
11,150
11,073
11,000
10,935
10,880
1,975
2,035
2,096
2,156
2,215
2,745
2,709
2,668
2,628
2,588
21,667
21,778
21,892
22,025
22,199
16–19
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
2,666
2,901
3,310
3,131
2,665
1,327
1,454
1,675
1,587
1,358
34
28
20
10
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,362
1,482
1,694
1,596
1,366
1,163
1,289
1,523
1,484
1,267
142
129
93
49
32
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,305
1,419
1,616
1,535
1,300
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2,402
2,478
2,532
2,543
2,523
1,209
1,246
1,274
1,280
1,276
6
6
6
6
6
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1,216
1,253
1,281
1,288
1,283
1,164
1,203
1,230
1,234
1,221
21
20
20
20
18
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1,186
1,225
1,251
1,255
1,240
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2,567
2,633
2,702
2,770
2,807
1,304
1,347
1,386
1,423
1,441
5
4
4
3
2
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1,312
1,353
1,391
1,427
1,443
1,237
1,266
1,299
1,332
1,355
16
13
12
11
9
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1,255
1,280
1,311
1,343
1,364
20–24
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
3,773
3,395
3,744
4,171
3,911
1,211
1,167
1,420
1,768
1,717
689
557
466
317
242
3
4
10
14
12
0
0
1
0
0
1,904
1,728
1,896
2,099
1,971
745
725
1,007
1,383
1,421
1,113
925
811
657
490
9
16
27
32
29
2
2
2
1
1
1,869
1,667
1,847
2,072
1,941
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
3,291
3,141
3,047
3,047
3,088
1,538
1,479
1,442
1,449
1,470
117
99
86
78
74
3
3
2
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
1,658
1,580
1,530
1,530
1,548
1,361
1,325
1,306
1,320
1,352
260
225
201
188
180
11
9
8
8
8
1
1
1
1
1
1,633
1,561
1,517
1,517
1,540
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
3,157
3,211
3,283
3,358
3,454
1,501
1,534
1,573
1,621
1,682
74
69
69
67
65
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1,579
1,607
1,646
1,692
1,751
1,390
1,428
1,466
1,499
1,545
178
166
161
156
149
8
8
8
8
8
1
1
1
2
2
1,578
1,604
1,637
1,665
1,703
25–29
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
3,267
3,758
3,372
3,713
4,154
431
533
588
835
1,132
1,206
1,326
1,057
949
856
16
39
54
79
82
1
2
1
1
1
1,654
1,900
1,700
1,863
2,071
215
267
331
527
800
1,367
1,522
1,247
1,207
1,158
29
65
89
113
123
4
5
4
4
2
1,614
1,859
1,671
1,850
2,083
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
3,950
3,877
3,789
3,687
3,605
1,273
1,294
1,304
1,304
1,305
650
595
544
497
459
46
42
38
34
31
1
1
1
1
1
1,970
1,932
1,887
1,836
1,796
977
1,012
1,039
1,051
1,065
906
844
783
725
677
93
85
77
72
65
3
3
3
3
3
1,980
1,945
1,902
1,851
1,810
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
3,487
3,348
3,262
3,260
3,327
1,293
1,276
1,271
1,292
1,335
420
371
337
318
305
28
26
25
24
23
1
1
1
1
1
1,742
1,674
1,634
1,635
1,664
1,059
1,052
1,053
1,080
1,132
625
567
524
497
483
58
52
49
47
46
3
3
2
2
2
1,745
1,674
1,628
1,625
1,663
1 The estimates by marital status for 1986 are based on the original mid-2001 population estimates, and are subject to further revision.
National Statistics
40
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1.5
continued
Autumn 2007
Population: age, sex and legal marital status
England and Wales
England and Wales Mid-year
Numbers (thousands)
Total
population
Single
Males
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Females Total
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Total
30–34
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
2,897
3,220
3,715
3,338
3,708
206
236
318
355
520
1,244
1,338
1,451
1,197
1,172
23
55
97
124
155
3
3
3
2
2
1,475
1,632
1,869
1,679
1,849
111
118
165
206
335
1,269
1,388
1,544
1,293
1,330
34
75
129
154
189
8
8
9
6
5
1,422
1,588
1,846
1,660
1,859
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
4,126
4,151
4,136
4,113
4,076
776
817
848
877
904
1,135
1,111
1,078
1,043
1,007
138
133
127
121
114
2
2
3
3
2
2,050
2,064
2,056
2,044
2,027
551
589
621
651
679
1,316
1,293
1,259
1,223
1,182
201
198
193
188
181
7
7
7
7
7
2,076
2,088
2,081
2,069
2,049
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
4,050
4,000
3,928
3,813
3,712
934
961
981
987
996
971
921
868
811
758
108
105
102
97
91
2
2
2
2
2
2,016
1,990
1,954
1,897
1,848
711
743
767
777
789
1,142
1,094
1,043
985
932
174
167
159
149
139
7
6
6
5
5
2,033
2,010
1,974
1,916
1,864
35–44
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
5,736
5,608
5,996
6,856
7,022
317
286
316
396
477
2,513
2,442
2,519
2,738
2,632
48
104
178
293
384
13
12
12
12
11
2,891
2,843
3,024
3,438
3,504
201
167
170
213
280
2,529
2,427
2,540
2,815
2,760
66
129
222
350
444
48
42
41
39
34
2,845
2,765
2,972
3,418
3,517
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
7,017
7,155
7,304
7,475
7,661
653
708
768
832
899
2,426
2,433
2,442
2,459
2,481
398
403
405
408
410
12
12
13
13
12
3,489
3,556
3,627
3,711
3,802
427
472
522
577
635
2,568
2,580
2,596
2,617
2,640
497
511
523
533
547
36
36
36
37
37
3,528
3,599
3,677
3,763
3,859
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
7,816
7,962
8,062
8,140
8,195
963
1,031
1,089
1,142
1,195
2,494
2,489
2,471
2,445
2,415
411
424
435
444
449
12
12
12
11
11
3,881
3,955
4,006
4,043
4,070
692
751
805
858
911
2,649
2,650
2,634
2,614
2,584
558
571
583
593
597
36
35
34
32
31
3,935
4,007
4,056
4,098
4,124
45–64
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
11,887
11,484
11,040
10,860
10,960
502
496
480
461
456
4,995
4,787
4,560
4,422
4,394
81
141
218
331
456
173
160
147
141
127
5,751
5,583
5,405
5,355
5,433
569
462
386
327
292
4,709
4,568
4,358
4,220
4,211
125
188
271
388
521
733
683
620
570
503
6,136
5,901
5,635
5,505
5,527
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
11,820
11,927
12,055
12,198
12,328
528
545
565
589
615
4,587
4,593
4,608
4,627
4,638
628
656
681
706
727
121
120
121
121
121
5,864
5,914
5,974
6,043
6,101
318
328
340
355
372
4,466
4,486
4,512
4,541
4,564
732
770
807
844
881
440
430
422
415
410
5,956
6,014
6,080
6,155
6,227
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
12,447
12,580
12,715
12,857
13,029
644
671
702
736
774
4,647
4,649
4,647
4,644
4,651
747
780
815
850
888
121
120
118
117
116
6,159
6,220
6,283
6,347
6,429
391
413
437
465
498
4,578
4,596
4,613
4,628
4,649
918
960
1,002
1,045
1,091
401
391
380
371
362
6,289
6,359
6,433
6,510
6,600
65 and over
1971
1976
1981
19861
1991
6,592
7,119
7,548
7,768
8,080
179
197
216
223
231
1,840
2,033
2,167
2,234
2,332
17
33
54
76
99
492
510
534
539
586
2,527
2,773
2,971
3,072
3,248
580
569
533
477
422
1,437
1,579
1,692
1,759
1,853
32
60
90
127
152
2,016
2,138
2,263
2,333
2,405
4,065
4,347
4,578
4,696
4,832
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
8,221
8,237
8,258
8,262
8,287
247
248
250
251
252
2,390
2,404
2,418
2,431
2,449
134
143
152
161
171
597
597
597
594
593
3,367
3,391
3,417
3,437
3,466
369
358
348
338
327
1,897
1,904
1,913
1,922
1,938
196
207
218
230
243
2,393
2,377
2,362
2,336
2,313
4,854
4,845
4,841
4,825
4,821
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
8,342
8,400
8,461
8,520
8,579
254
256
258
259
261
2,478
2,511
2,544
2,575
2,605
183
197
211
225
241
595
595
594
593
592
3,510
3,557
3,607
3,653
3,699
318
308
301
293
286
1,960
1,987
2,015
2,044
2,074
259
276
294
314
334
2,295
2,272
2,244
2,216
2,186
4,832
4,843
4,854
4,867
4,880
See notes on first page of table.
41
National Statistics
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1.6
Autumn 2007
Components of population change
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Numbers (thousands)
{
Mid-year to
Population at
Total Components of change (mid-year to mid-year or annual averages)
Population at
mid-year
start of period
annual
end of
Net
civilian
migration
change
Live
Deaths
Natural Other
period
births
change
changes
Total1
To/from
To/from
To/from
(Live births –
rest of UK Irish Republic rest of the
deaths)
world
United Kingdom
1971–76
55,928
+ 58
766
670
+ 96
– 55
–
– 55
+ 16
56,216
1976–81
56,216
+ 27
705
662
+ 42
– 33
–
– 33
+ 18
56,352
1981–86
56,357
+ 65
733
662
+ 70
– 5
– .. ..
56,684
1986–91
56,684
+148
782
647
+135
+ 13
– .. ..
57,439
1991–96
57,439
+145
756
639
+117
+ 29
– .. ..
58,164
58,164
58,314
58,475
58,684
58,886
59,113
59,322
59,554
59,834
+150
+161
+209
+202
+227
+208
+232
+281
+375
740
718
713
688
674
663
682
707
717
637
617
634
626
599
601
605
603
591
+103
+100
+ 77
+ 62
+ 74
+ 62
+ 77
+104
+127
+ 47
+ 60
+133
+139
+153
+146
+155
+177
+248
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
49,152
49,459
49,634
49,999
50,748
+ 61
+ 35
+ 73
+150
+132
644
612
639
689
668
588
582
582
569
563
+ 76
+ 30
+ 57
+120
+106
– 28
+10
–
– 9
+11
–
+ 16 ..
+ 30 ..
+ 27 ..
9
–
3
–
..
..
..
1996­­–97
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
England
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
51,410
51,560
51,720
51,933
52,140
52,360
52,570
52,794
53,046
+149
+160
+213
+207
+220
+210
+223
+252
+345
655
636
630
612
599
591
608
631
641
562
544
558
550
528
530
532
531
520
+ 93
+ 92
+ 72
+ 61
+ 71
+ 61
+ 76
+101
+121
+ 56
+ 68
+141
+146
+149
+149
+147
+151
+224
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
46,412
46,660
46,821
47,188
47,875
+ 50
+ 32
+ 73
+137
+129
627
577
603
651
632
552
546
547
535
528
+ 75
+ 31
+ 56
+116
+104
– 35
+
– 11
+
+ 18
+ 21
+ 24
1
–
6
–
..
..
..
9
–
3
–
..
..
..
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
Wales
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
48,519
+146
48,665
+156
48,821
+212
48,033
+200
49,233+216
49,450
+197
49,647
+209
49,856
+237
50,093
+339
620
602
598
580
568
560
578
600
608
527
510
523
516
495
497
498
498
487
+ 93
+ 53
+ 92
+ 64
+ 74+138
+ 64
+136
+ 73+144
+ 63
+134
+ 79
+130
+102
+136
+121
+217
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
48,665
48,821
49,033
49,233
49,450
49,647
49,856
50,093
50,432
..
–
..
–
..
..
..
2
+
2
+
..
..
..
3
2
..
..
..
2,799
2,813
2,811
2,873
2,891
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
2,895
2,900
2,901
2,907
2,910
2,923
2,938
2,952
2,959
5,233
5,180
5,112
5,083
5,092
5,083
5,077
5,072
5,063
5,064
5,055
5,057
5,078
5,095
7
– 1
3
+ 17
1 –
1 –
.. –
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
1,662
..
+
..
..
–
..
–
..
+
..
..
..
..
1,671
1,678
1,679
1,683
1,689
1,697
1,703
1,710
1,724
{
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
England and Wales
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
51,560
51,720
51,933
52,140
52,360
52,570
52,794
53,046
53,390
27
+ 10
15
+ 12
.. ..
.. ..
.. ..
46,660
46,821
47,188
47,875
48,519
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,811
2,873
+ 12
+ 3
– 1
+ 12
+ 4
37
35
36
38
36
36
36
35
34
35
+
–
+
+
+
1
1
1
4
1
+
+
–
+
+
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
Scotland
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
2,891
2,895
2,900
2,901
2,907
2,910
2,923
2,938
2,952
+ 4
+ 5
+ 1
+ 6
+ 3
+ 13
+ 15
+ 14
+ 6
35
34
33
31
31
30
31
32
33
35
34
35
–
34
–
33
–
33
–
33
–
33
–
33
–
–
2
3
2
3
3
1
0
+ 3
+ 4
+ 3
+ 9
+ 5
+ 16
+ 17
+ 16
+ 6
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
5,236 –
5,233
– 11
5,180
– 14
5,112
– 6
5,083
+ 2
73
66
66
66
63
64
64
64
62
61
+
+
+
+
+
9
2
2
3
1
–
–
–
–
–
4
4
1
..
..
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
Northern Ireland
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
5,092
5,083
5,077
5,072
5,063
5,064
5,055
5,057
5,078
– 9
– 6
– 5
– 9
+ 1
– 9
+ 3
+ 21
+ 16
60
58
57
54
53
51
52
54
54
60
59
–
60
–
60
–
57
–
57
–
58
–
58
–
57
–
–
1
4
6
4
6
7
4
2
– 9
– 6
– 1
– 3
+ 5
– 3
+ 9
+ 25
+ 19
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
1,540
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
– 3
+ 3
+ 6
+ 7
+ 11
28
27
28
27
25
17
17
16
16
15
+ 11
+ 10
+ 12
+ 12
+ 9
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
1,662
1,671
1,678
1,679
1,683
1,689
1,697
1,703
1,710
+ 10
+ 7
+ 1
+ 4
+ 6
+ 7
+ 6
+ 8
+ 14
25
24
23
22
22
21
21
22
22
15
15
15
16
14
14
15
15
14
+ 10
–
+ 9
–
+ 8
–
+ 7
–
+ 7
–
+ 7
+ 7
–
+ 7
–
+ 8
+
14
– 4
– 10
+
16
– 7
– 10
+
16
– 7
– 7
+
9 ..
..
0 ..
..
– 14
– 7
–
– 8
– 4
–
– 5
– 3
–
– 5
– 3
–
+ 2 ..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
1
–
2
1
1
-
..
..
..
{
1
2
5
2
2
-
1
0
6
49,459
49,634
49,999
50,748
51,410
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
{
7
+10
2
+ 5
1 ..
8 ..
2 ..
29
+ 13
17
+ 14
.. ..
.. ..
.. ..
58,314
58,475
58,684
58,886
59,113
59,322
59,554
59,834
60,209
1 For UK, England, Wales and Scotland from 1981 onwards, this column is not an estimate of net civilian migration; it also includes “other” changes. It has been derived by subtraction using revised population estimates and natural change.
National Statistics
42
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 2.1
Autumn 2007
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Year and
quarter
All live
births
Number
Live births
Marriages
outside marriage
Numbers (thousands) and rates Civil
Divorces
Deaths
Partnerships
Infant
mortality6
Neonatal
mortality7
Perinatal
mortality8
Rate1 Number Rate2 Number Rate3 Number Rate4 Number Rate5 Number Rate1 Number Rate2 Number Rate2 Number Rate9
United Kingdom
1976
675.5
12.0
61.1
90 406.0
..
:
:
135.4
.. 680.8
12.1
9.79
14.5
6.68
9.9
1981
730.7
13.0
91.3
125 397.8 49.4
:
:
156.4 11.3 658.0
11.7
8.16
11.2
4.93
6.7
1986
754.8
13.3
154.3
204 393.9
..
:
:
168.2
.. 660.7
11.7
7.18
9.5
4.00
5.3
1991
792.3
13.8
236.1
298 349.7
..
:
:
173.5
.. 646.2
11.2
5.82
7.4
3.46
4.4
1996
733.2
12.6
260.4
355 317.5
..
:
:
171.7
.. 636.0
10.9
4.50
6.1
3.00
4.1
1999
700.0
11.9
271.6
388 301.1
..
:
:
158.7
.. 632.1
10.8
4.05
5.8
2.73
3.9
2000
679.0
11.5
268.1
395 305.9
..
:
:
154.6
.. 608.4
10.3
3.79
5.6
2.63
3.9
2001
669.1
11.3
268.0
401 286.1
..
:
:
156.8
.. 602.3
10.2
3.66
5.5
2.43
3.6
2002
668.8
11.3
271.7
406 293.0
..
:
:
160.5
.. 606.2
10.2
3.50
5.2
2.36
3.5
2003
695.6
11.7
288.5
415 308.6
..
:
:
166.7
.. 612.0
10.3
3.69
5.3
2.53
3.6
2004
716.0
12.0
302.6
423 313.6
..
:
:
167.1
.. 583.1
9.7
3.61
5.0
2.46
3.4
2005
722.5
12.0
310.2
429 285.0P
..
1.9510
..
155.1
.. 582.7
9.7
3.68
5.1
2.53
3.5
2006
748.6P 12.4P 326.8
437
..
..
16.11 P
..
..
.. 572.2P
9.5P
3.74P
5.0P 2.61P
3.5P
2004 March
174.3
11.7
73.6
422
39.7
..
:
:
43.1
.. 159.7
10.7
0.97
5.5
0.64
3.7
June
176.2
11.8
73.2
415
86.1
..
:
:
41.5
.. 139.3
9.4
0.84
4.8
0.59
3.4
Sept
185.1
12.3
78.5
424 129.4
..
:
:
42.3
.. 135.1
9.0
0.90
4.9
0.64
3.5
Dec
180.4
12.0
77.3
429
58.4
..
:
:
40.2
.. 149.0
9.9
0.90
5.0
0.58
3.2
2005 March
173.2
11.7
74.5
430
35.0P
..
:
:
39.4
.. 165.1
11.1
0.95
5.5
0.64
3.7
June
179.0
11.9
75.0
419
78.9P
..
:
:
40.0
.. 141.1
9.5
0.93
5.2
0.64
3.6
Sept
190.3
12.5
82.5
434 120.7P
..
:
:
38.9
.. 130.9
8.7
0.91
4.8
0.66
3.5
Dec
180.1
11.9
78.2
434
50.5P
..
1.9510
..
36.7
.. 145.5
9.7
0.90
5.0
0.59
3.3
2006 March
178.9P 12.0P
77.5P
433P
..
..
4.87P
..
..
.. 159.9P
10.7P
0.90P
5.1P
0.61P
3.4P
June
186.0P 12.3P
80.2P
431P
..
..
4.36P
..
..
.. 141.4P
9.4P
0.94P
5.0P
0.65P
3.5P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
Sept
195.2 12.8 85.8 439 ..
..
4.49 ..
..
.. 130.7 8.6 0.93 4.8 0.67 3.4P
Dec
188.5P 12.4P
83.3P
442P
..
..
2.38P
..
..
.. 140.2P
9.2P
0.97P
5.1P
0.68P
3.6P
2007 March
..
..
..
..
..
..
1.69P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
12.25
8.79
7.31
6.45
6.41
18.0
12.0
9.6
8.1
8.7
5.79
5.56
5.39
5.57
5.96
8.2
8.1
8.0
8.3
8.5
6.00
5.82
5.94P
8.3
8.0
7.9P
1.51
1.48
1.59
1.43
8.6
8.3
8.5
7.9
1.39
1.53
1.49
1.42
8.0
8.5
7.8
7.8
1.45P
1.50P
1.54P
1.45P
8.1P
8.0P
7.8P
7.7P
..
..
England and Wales
1976
584.3
11.8
53.8
92 358.6 57.7
:
:
126.7 10.1 598.5
12.1
8.34
14.3
5.66
9.7
10.45
1981
634.5
12.8
81.0
128 352.0 49.6
:
:
145.7 11.9 577.9
11.6
7.02
11.1
4.23
6.7
7.56
1986
661.0
13.2
141.3
214 347.9 43.6
:
:
153.9 12.9 581.2
11.6
6.31
9.6
3.49
5.3
6.37
1991
699.2
13.8
211.3
302 306.8 36.0
:
:
158.7 13.5 570.0
11.2
5.16
7.4
3.05
4.4
5.65
1996
649.5
12.6
232.7
358 279.0 30.9
:
:
157.1 13.8 560.1
10.9
3.99
6.1
2.68
4.1
5.62
1999
621.9
12.0
241.9
389 263.5 27.8
:
:
144.6 12.9 556.1
10.7
3.62
5.8
2.44
3.9
5.14
2000
604.4
11.6
238.6
395 268.0 27.8
:
:
141.1 12.7 535.7
10.3
3.38
5.6
2.34
3.9
4.96
2001
594.6
11.4
238.1
400 249.2 25.4
:
:
143.8 12.9 530.4
10.1
3.24
5.4
2.14
3.6
4.76
2002
596.1
11.3
242.0
406 255.6 25.6
:
:
147.7 13.4 533.5
10.1
3.13
5.2
2.13
3.6
4.99
2003
621.5
11.8
257.2
414 270.1 26.4
:
:
153.5 14.0 538.3
10.2
3.31
5.3
2.26
3.6
5.36
2004
639.7
12.1
269.7
422 273.1 26.1
:
:
153.4 14.1 512.5
9.7
3.22
5.0
2.21
3.5
5.39
2005
645.8
12.1
276.5
428 246.0P 22.8P
1.8610 5.810 141.8 13.1 512.7
9.7
3.26
5.0
2.23
3.4
5.21
2006
669.612.5P 291.4
435
..
..
14.94
1.4P 132.6P 12.2P 502.6P
9.4P
3.37P
5.0P
2.35P
3.5P
5.36P
2004 March
155.2
11.8
65.2
421
35.0 13.5
:
:
39.5 14.6 140.5
10.7
0.87
5.6
0.58
3.8
1.34
June
157.4
11.9
65.2
414
75.0 28.8
:
:
38.1 14.0 122.1
9.3
0.74
4.7
0.52
3.3
1.31
Sept
165.4
12.4
70.2
424 113.2 43.0
:
:
39.0 14.2 118.6
8.9
0.80
4.8
0.57
3.5
1.43
Dec
161.7
12.1
69.1
427
49.9 19.0
:
:
36.9 13.5 131.3
9.8
0.81
5.0
0.53
3.3
1.30
2005 March
154.3
11.7
66.3
430
30.2P 11.4P
:
:
36.2 13.6 145.7
11.0
0.85
5.5
0.57
3.7
1.25
June
159.8
12.0
66.6
417
68.1P 25.5P
:
:
36.5 13.5 123.8
9.4
0.82
5.2
0.56
3.5
1.35
Sept
170.2
12.6
73.7
433 104.8P 38.8P
:
:
35.6 13.0 114.7
8.6
0.79
4.6
0.57
3.4
1.34
Dec
161.7
12.0
69.9
433
42.9P 15.9P
1.8610 5.810
33.4 12.2 128.5
9.6
0.80
4.9
0.52
3.2
1.28
2006 March
159.5
12.0P
68.7
431
..
..
4.58
1.7P
34.3P 12.8P 141.0P
10.7P
0.82P
5.2P
0.56P
3.5P
1.32P
June
166.2
12.4P
71.4
430
..
..
4.01
1.5P
33.0P 12.2P 123.9P
9.3P
0.84P
5.1P
0.58P
3.5P
1.37P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
Sept
174.9
12.9 76.8
439
..
..
4.18
1.5 32.9 12.0 114.6 8.5 0.85 4.8 0.60 3.4 1.38P
Dec
169.012.5P
74.5
441
..
..
2.18
0.8P
32.4P 11.8P 123.1P
9.1P
0.86P
5.1P
0.60P
3.6P
1.30P
2007 March
..
..
..
..
..
..
1.56P 0.6P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
England
1976
550.4
11.8
50.8
92 339.0
..
:
:
..
.. 560.3
12.0
7.83
14.2
5.32
9.7
9.81
1981
598.2
12.8
76.9
129 332.2
..
:
:
..
.. 541.0
11.6
6.50
10.9
3.93
6.6
7.04
1986
623.6
13.2
133.5
214 328.4
..
:
:
146.0
.. 544.5
11.6
5.92
9.5
3.27
5.2
5.98
1991
660.8
13.8
198.9
301 290.1
..
:
:
150.1
.. 534.0
11.2
4.86
7.3
2.87
4.3
5.33
1996
614.2
12.7
218.2
355 264.2
..
:
:
148.7
.. 524.0
10.8
3.74
6.1
2.53
4.1
5.36
1999
589.5
12.0
226.7
385 249.5
..
:
:
137.0
.. 519.6
10.8
3.38
5.7
2.29
3.9
4.86
2000
572.8
11.7
223.8
391 253.8
..
:
:
133.9
.. 501.0
10.2
3.18
5.6
2.21
3.9
4.69
2001
563.7
11.4
223.3
396 236.2
..
:
:
136.4
.. 496.1
10.0
3.04
5.4
2.02
3.6
4.51
2002
565.7
11.4
227.0
401 242.1
..
:
:
140.2
.. 499.1
10.1
2.97
5.2
2.02
3.6
4.75
2003
589.9
11.8
241.4
409 255.6
..
:
:
145.8
.. 503.4
10.1
3.14
5.3
2.15
3.7
5.09
2004
607.2
12.1
253.1
417 258.2
..
:
:
145.5
.. 479.2
9.6
3.03
5.0
2.09
3.4
5.10
2005
613.0
12.2
259.4
423 231.1P
..
1.7910
..
134.6
.. 479.4
9.6
3.10
5.0
2.12
3.5
4.92
2006
635.712.5P 273.5
430
..
..
14.38
..
125.6P
.. 470.3P
9.3P
3.19P
5.0P
2.24P
3.5P
5.11P
2004 March
147.3
11.8
61.2
416
33.3
..
:
:
37.4
.. 131.4
10.6
0.82
5.5
0.55
3.7
1.26
June
149.6
12.0
61.3
410
71.0
..
:
:
36.0
.. 114.2
9.2
0.69
4.6
0.49
3.3
1.25
Sept
156.9
12.5
65.8
420 106.8
..
:
:
36.9
.. 110.8
8.8
0.74
4.7
0.53
3.4
1.35
Dec
153.3
12.2
64.7
422
47.2
..
:
:
35.1
.. 122.9
9.8
0.78
5.1
0.52
3.4
1.24
2005 March
146.4
11.8
62.1
424
28.6P
..
:
:
34.4
.. 136.2
10.9
0.81
5.6
0.54
3.7
1.18
June
151.8
12.1
62.5
412
64.2P
..
:
:
34.7
.. 115.7
9.3
0.78
5.1
0.53
3.5
1.28
Sept
161.4
12.7
69.1
428
98.9P
..
:
:
33.8
.. 107.3
8.5
0.75
4.7
0.55
3.4
1.27
Dec
153.4
12.1
65.6
428
40.4P
..
1.7910
..
31.7
.. 120.3
9.6
0.75
4.9
0.50
3.3
1.18
2006 March
151.4
12.1P
64.5
426
..
..
4.42
..
32.5P
.. 132.0P
10.6P
0.79P
5.2P
0.54P
3.6P
1.26P
June
157.8
12.5P
67.0
425
..
..
3.86
..
31.2P
.. 115.9P
9.2P
0.80P
5.1P
0.56P
3.5P
1.31P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
Sept
166.0
13.0 72.0
434
..
..
4.02
..
31.2 .. 107.1 8.4 0.80 4.8 0.57 3.4 1.31P
Dec
160.512.6P
70.0
436
..
..
2.09
..
30.7P
.. 115.3P
9.0P
0.81P
5.0P
0.57P
3.6P
1.24P
2007 March
..
..
..
..
..
..
1.50P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Note: Death figures for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each year up
to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993 to 2005. Provisional death
figures for 2006 relate to registrations.
Birth and death figures for England and also for Wales each exclude events for persons usually
resident outside England and Wales. These events are, however, included in the totals for
England and Wales combined, and for the United Kingdom.
From 1981 births to non-resident mothers in Northern Ireland are excluded from the figures for
Northern Ireland, and for the United Kingdom.
17.7
11.8
9.6
8.0
8.6
8.2
8.2
8.0
8.3
8.6
8.4
8.0
8.0P
8.6
8.3
8.6
8.0
8.0
8.4
7.8
7.9
8.2P
8.2P
7.9P
7.6P
..
17.6
11.7
9.5
8.0
8.7
8.2
8.2
8.0
8.3
8.6
8.4
8.0
8.0P
8.5
8.3
8.6
8.1
8.0
8.4
7.8
7.7
8.3P
8.2P
7.8P
7.7P
..
Birth and death rates for 2006 are based on the 2004-based population projections for 2006.
Marriage and divorce rates in England and Wales for 1986 have been calculated using the
interim revised marital status estimates (based on the original mid-2001 estimates) and are
subject to further revision.
Marriage, civil partnership and divorce rates in England and Wales for 2006 and 2007 are based
on 2005 marital status estimates. Rates for Scotland for 2007 are based on 2006 marital status
estimates.
43
National Statistics
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 2.1
continued
Autumn 2007
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Year and
quarter
All live
births
Number
Numbers (thousands) and rates Live births
Marriages
outside marriage
Civil
Divorces
Deaths
Partnerships
Infant
mortality6
Neonatal
mortality7
Perinatal
mortality8
Rate1 Number Rate2 Number Rate3 Number Rate4 Number Rate5 Number Rate1 Number Rate2 Number Rate2 Number Rate9
Wales
1976
33.4
11.9
2.9
86
19.5
..
:
:
..
..
36.3
13.0
0.46
13.7
0.32
9.6
1981
35.8
12.7
4.0
112
19.8
..
:
:
..
..
35.0
12.4
0.45
12.6
0.29
8.1
1986
37.0
13.1
7.8
211
19.5
..
:
:
7.8
..
34.7
12.3
0.35
9.5
0.21
5.6
1991
38.1
13.3
12.3
323
16.6
..
:
:
8.4
..
34.1
11.9
0.25
6.6
0.16
4.1
1996
34.9
12.1
14.4
412
14.8
..
:
:
8.4
..
34.6
12.0
0.20
5.6
0.13
3.6
1999
32.1
11.1
14.8
461
14.0
..
:
:
7.5
..
35.0
12.1
0.20
6.1
0.13
4.0
2000
31.3
10.8
14.8
472
14.1
..
:
:
7.2
..
33.3
11.5
0.17
5.3
0.11
3.5
2001
30.6
10.5
14.8
483
13.0
..
:
:
7.4
..
33.0
11.3
0.16
5.4
0.11
3.5
2002
30.2
10.3
15.0
497
13.5
..
:
:
7.6
..
33.2
11.3
0.14
4.5
0.10
3.2
2003
31.4
10.7
15.8
503
14.5
..
:
:
7.7
..
33.7
11.5
0.13
4.3
0.10
3.1
2004
32.3
10.9
16.6
513
14.9
..
:
:
7.9
..
32.1
10.9
0.16
4.9
0.10
3.1
2005
32.6
11.0
17.1
524
13.9P
..
0.0710
..
7.2
..
32.1
10.9
0.13
4.1
0.09
2.9
2006
33.611.3P
17.8
530
..
..
0.56
..
6.9P
..
31.1P
10.4P
0.14P
4.1P
0.09P
2.8P
2004 March
7.8
10.6
4.0
514
1.7
..
:
:
2.0
..
8.8
12.0
0.05
5.9
0.03
3.9
June
7.8
10.6
3.9
500
4.0
..
:
:
2.0
..
7.6
10.4
0.04
4.9
0.02
3.1
Sept
8.4
11.4
4.3
512
6.4
..
:
:
2.1
..
7.5
10.1
0.04
4.9
0.03
3.7
Dec
8.3
11.2
4.4
523
2.7
..
:
:
1.8
..
8.1
11.0
0.03
3.8
0.02
1.8
2005 March
7.8
10.7
4.1
529
1.6P
..
:
:
1.8
..
9.3
12.6
0.03
4.2
0.02
3.1
June
7.9
10.7
4.0
510
3.9P
..
:
:
1.8
..
7.8
10.6
0.03
4.2
0.03
3.2
Sept
8.7
11.6
4.6
530
6.0P
..
:
:
1.8
..
7.1
9.6
0.03
3.3
0.02
2.8
Dec
8.2
11.0
4.3
527
2.5P
..
0.0710
..
1.8
..
7.9
10.7
0.04
4.6
0.02
2.6
2006 March
8.1
11.1P
4.2
520
..
..
0.16
..
1.8P
..
8.7P
11.8P
0.03P
3.1P
0.02P
2.0P
June
8.3
11.2P
4.3
523
..
..
0.15
..
1.7P
..
7.6P
10.3P
0.03P
4.1P
0.02P
2.4P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
Sept
8.8
11.8 4.8
543
..
..
0.16
..
1.7 ..
7.2 9.6 0.04 4.0 0.03 3.1P
Dec
8.411.2P
4.5
535
..
..
0.09
..
1.7P
..
7.5P
10.0P
0.04P
5.1P
0.03P
3.6P
P
2007 March
..
..
..
..
..
..
0.06 ..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Scotland
1976
64.9
12.5
6.0
93
37.5 53.8
:
:
8.1
6.5 65.3
12.5
0.96
14.8
0.67
10.3
1981
69.1
13.4
8.5
122
36.2 47.5
:
:
9.9
8.0 63.8
12.3
0.78
11.3
0.47
6.9
1986
65.8
12.9
13.6
206
35.8 42.9
:
:
12.8 10.7 63.5
12.4
0.58
8.8
0.34
5.2
1991
67.0
13.2
19.5
291
33.8 39.0
:
:
12.4 10.6 61.0
12.0
0.47
7.1
0.29
4.6
1996
59.3
11.6
21.4
360
30.2 33.2
:
:
12.3 10.9 60.7
11.9
0.37
6.2
0.23
3.9
1999
55.1
10.9
22.7
412
29.9 31.5
:
:
11.9 10.9 60.3
11.9
0.28
5.0
0.18
3.3
2000
53.1
10.5
22.6
426
30.4 31.6
:
:
11.1 10.3 57.8
11.4
0.31
5.7
0.21
4.0
2001
52.5
10.4
22.8
433
29.6 31.0
:
:
10.6
9.7 57.4
11.3
0.29
5.5
0.20
3.8
2002
51.3
10.1
22.5
440
29.8 30.8
:
:
10.8 10.0 58.1
11.5
0.27
5.3
0.16
3.2
2003
52.4
10.4
23.9
455
30.8 31.3
:
:
10.1 10.2 58.5
11.6
0.27
5.1
0.18
3.4
2004
54.0
10.6
25.2
467
32.2 32.2
:
:
11.2 10.5 56.2
11.1
0.27
4.9
0.17
3.1
2005
54.4
10.7
25.6
471
30.9 30.3
0.0810 2.510
10.9 10.3 55.7
11.0
0.28
5.2
0.19
3.5
2006
55.7
10.9P
26.6
477
29.9 28.7
1.05
1.0
13.0 12.3 55.1P
10.8P
0.25P
4.5P
0.17P
3.1P
2004 March
13.5
10.7
6.4
472
3.9 15.6
:
:
2.9 10.9 15.3
12.2
0.06
4.6
0.04
2.7
June
13.3
10.5
6.1
459
8.7 35.1
:
:
2.8 10.5 13.6
10.7
0.07
5.1
0.05
3.6
Sept
13.8
10.8
6.4
462
12.7 50.6
:
:
2.7 10.2 13.1
10.2
0.07
5.3
0.05
3.4
Dec
13.3
10.4
6.3
475
6.8 27.3
:
:
2.8 10.4 14.2
11.1
0.06
4.7
0.03
2.6
2005 March
13.4
10.6
6.2
464
3.8 15.3
:
:
2.6 10.0 15.6
12.4
0.07
5.0
0.04
3.3
June
13.6
10.7
6.4
472
8.6 34.0
:
:
2.8 10.7 13.7
10.8
0.07
5.1
0.05
3.4
Sept
14.2
11.1
6.7
471
12.3 48.0
:
:
2.7 10.1 12.8
10.0
0.08
5.6
0.06
3.9
Dec
13.2
10.3
6.3
477
6.1 23.7
0.0810 2.510
2.8 10.3 13.6
10.7
0.07
5.2
0.05
3.4
2006 March
13.6
10.8
6.6
487
3.5 13.6
0.26
1.0
2.6 10.1 14.9P
11.8P
0.05P
3.7P
0.03P
2.4P
June
14.0
11.0
6.7
475
8.3 32.1
0.32
1.2
3.1 11.7 13.9P
10.9P
0.07P
5.0P
0.05P
3.3P
P
P
P
P
P
Sept
14.2
11.0
6.7
471
12.2 46.4
0.28
1.1
3.6 13.4 12.7 9.8 0.05 3.8 0.04 2.9P
Dec
13.9
10.8
6.6
477
5.9 22.4
0.19
0.7
3.7 14.1 13.6P
10.6P
0.07P
5.3P
0.04P
3.7P
2007 March
..
..
..
..
3.3P 13.0P
0.11P 0.4P
3.1P 11.9P
..
..
..
..
..
..
0.64
0.51
0.38
0.30
0.26
19.0
14.1
10.3
7.9
7.5
0.25
0.23
0.23
0.24
0.24
7.7
7.2
7.5
7.7
7.6
0.26
0.24
0.23P
8.0
7.4
6.9P
0.08
0.06
0.07
0.06
9.8
7.5
7.8
6.8
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
7.7
7.9
7.0
6.8
0.06P
0.05P
0.07P
0.06P
7.0P
6.3P
7.7P
6.6P
..
..
1.20
0.81
0.67
0.58
0.55
18.3
11.6
10.2
8.6
9.2
0.42
0.45
0.45
0.39
0.42
7.6
8.4
8.5
7.6
8.0
0.44
0.42
0.42P
8.1
7.7
7.4P
0.13
0.11
0.11
0.09
9.2
8.4
7.8
6.9
0.09
0.13
0.11
0.10
7.0
9.2
7.6
7.1
0.09P
0.09P
0.11P
0.12P
6.7P
6.4P
7.8P
8.7P
..
..
Northern Ireland
1976
26.4
17.3
1.3
50
9.9
..
:
:
0.6
..
17.0
11.2
0.48
18.3
0.35
13.3
0.59
1981
27.2
17.6
1.9
70
9.6 45.4
:
:
1.4
4.2 16.3
10.6
0.36
13.2
0.23
8.3
0.42
1986
28.0
17.8
3.6
128
10.2
..
:
:
1.5
..
16.1
10.3
0.36
13.2
0.23
8.3
0.42
1991
26.0
16.2
5.3
203
9.2
..
:
:
2.3
..
15.1
9.4
0.19
7.4
0.12
4.6
0.22
1996
24.4
14.7
6.3
260
8.3
..
:
:
2.3
..
15.2
9.2
0.14
5.8
0.09
3.7
0.23
1999
23.0
13.7
7.0
303
7.6
..
:
:
2.3
..
15.7
9.3
0.15
6.4
0.11
4.8
0.23
2000
21.5
12.8
6.8
318
7.6
..
:
:
2.4
..
14.9
8.9
0.11
5.1
0.08
3.8
0.15
2001
22.0
13.0
7.1
325
7.3
..
:
:
2.4
..
14.5
8.6
0.13
6.1
0.10
4.5
0.19
2002
21.4
12.6
7.2
335
7.6
..
:
:
2.2
..
14.6
8.6
0.10
4.7
0.07
3.5
0.19
2003
21.6
12.7
7.4
344
7.8
..
:
:
2.3
..
14.5
8.5
0.11
5.3
0.09
4.0
0.18
2004
22.3
13.0
7.7
345
8.3
..
:
:
2.5
..
14.4
8.4
0.12
5.5
0.08
3.7
0.18
2005
22.3
12.9
8.1
363
8.1
..
0.0110
..
2.4
..
14.2
8.3
0.14
6.3
0.11
5.1
0.18
2006
23.3P 13.4P
8.8P
380P
8.3P
..
0.12P
..
2.6P
..
14.5P
8.4P
0.12P
5.2P
0.09P
3.9P
0.17P
2004 March
5.7
13.3
2.0
352
0.8
..
:
:
0.8
..
3.9
9.1
0.03
5.5
0.02
3.5
0.05
June
5.4
12.7
1.8
337
2.4
..
:
:
0.7
..
3.6
8.4
0.03
5.9
0.02
4.4
0.05
Sept
5.8
13.5
2.0
339
3.5
..
:
:
0.5
..
3.4
8.0
0.04
6.0
0.02
4.1
0.05
Dec
5.4
12.7
1.9
353
1.6
..
:
:
0.5
..
3.5
8.1
0.02
4.4
0.02
2.8
0.04
2005 March
5.5
13.0
2.0
363
0.9
..
:
:
0.6
..
3.8
8.9
0.03
5.2
0.02
4.3
0.05
June
5.7
13.3
2.0
359
2.2
..
:
:
0.7
..
3.7
8.6
0.04
7.2
0.03
5.6
0.04
Sept
5.9
13.7
2.0
358
3.5
..
:
:
0.5
..
3.4
7.8
0.04
6.6
0.03
5.6
0.04
Dec
5.2
11.9
1.9
373
1.4
..
0.0110
..
0.5
..
3.4
7.9
0.03
6.0
0.02
4.6
0.04
2006 March
5.8P 13.6P
2.2P
370P
0.9P
..
0.03P
..
0.7P
..
4.0P
9.4P
0.03P
5.3P
0.02P
3.3P
0.04P
June
5.8P 13.3P
2.2P
381P
2.3P
..
0.04P
..
0.7P
..
3.6P
8.4P
0.03P
4.7P
0.02P
3.6P
0.04P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
Sept
6.1 13.9 2.3 358 3.5 ..
0.03 ..
0.5 ..
3.4 7.8 0.03 4.9 0.02 3.6 0.05P
Dec
5.6P 12.8P
2.2P
393P
1.5P
..
0.02P
..
0.6P
..
3.5P
7.9P
0.03P
5.9P
0.03P
5.0P
0.04P
2007 March
..
..
..
..
1.0P
..
0.02P
See notes on first page of table.
1 Per 1,000 population of all ages.
2 Per 1,000 live births.
3 Persons marrying per 1,000 unmarried population aged 16 and over.
4 Persons forming a civil partnership per 1,000 unmarried population aged 16 and over.
5 Persons divorcing per 1,000 married population.
6 Deaths under 1 year.
National Statistics
44
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
22.3
15.3
15.3
8.4
9.4
10.0
7.3
8.5
8.9
8.1
8.2
8.1
7.1P
7.9
9.5
8.3
7.0
8.8
8.4
7.2
7.9
6.8P
7.4P
7.5P
6.4P
..
7 Deaths under 4 weeks.
8 Stillbirths and deaths under 1 week.
9 Per 1,000 live births and stillbirths.
10The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force on 5 December 2005 in the UK - see Notes to tables.
p provisional
..
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 2.2
Autumn 2007
Key demographic and health indicators
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean age
Dependency ratio
Live births Population
Live Deaths
Children1
Elderly2
TFR3
births
Standardised Unstand-
mean age
ardised
of mother mean age of
at birth
mother at (years)4
birth (years) 5
Period expectation of life (in years) at birth
Outside
marriage as
percentage
of total
live births
Age-
standardised
mortality
rate6
Males Females
Infant
mortality
rate7
United Kingdom
1976
56,216.1
1981
56,357.5
1986
56,683.8
1991
57,438.7
1996
58,164.4
675.5
730.7
754.8
792.3
733.2
680.8
658.0
660.7
646.2
636.0
42.1
37.1
33.5
33.2
33.9
29.5
29.7
29.7
30.0
30.0
1.74
1.82
1.78
1.82
1.73
..
27.0
27.4
27.7
28.2
26.4
26.8
27.0
27.7
28.6
9.0
12.5
20.4
29.8
35.5
10,486
9,506
8,914
8,168
7,584
..
70.8
71.9
73.2
74.3
..
76.8
77.7
78.7
79.4
14.5
11.2
9.5
7.4
6.1
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
59,113.5
59,321.7
59,553.8
59,834.3
60,209.5
669.1
668.8
695.6
716.0
722.5
602.3
606.2
612.0
583.1
582.7
32.6
32.2
31.8
31.4
31.0
29.8
29.8
29.9
30.0
30.1
1.63
1.64
1.71
1.77
1.79
28.6
28.7
28.8
28.9
29.1
29.2
29.3
29.4
29.4
29.5
40.1
40.6
41.5
42.3
42.9
6,807
6,765
6,757
6,390
6,259
75.7
75.9
76.3
76.6
..
80.4
80.5
80.7
81.0
..
5.5
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.1
2006
..
748.6 p
572.2p
..
..
1.858,p
29.1p
29.5 p
43.7p
6,0678,p
..
..
5.0p
England
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
46,659.9
46,820.8
47,187.6
47,875.0
48,519.1
550.4
598.2
623.6
660.8
614.2
560.3
541.0
544.5
534.0
524.0
41.4
36.4
33.1
32.9
33.7
29.7
29.9
29.8
30.0
30.0
1.70
1.79
1.76
1.81
1.73
..
..
27.4
27.7
28.2
26.4
26.8
27.0
27.7
28.7
9.2
12.9
21.4
30.1
35.5
10,271
9,298
8,725
8,017
7,414
..
71.1
72.2
73.4
74.5
..
77.0
77.9
78.9
79.6
14.2
10.9
9.5
7.3
6.1
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
49,449.7
49,646.9
49,855.7
50,093.1
50,431.7
563.7
565.7
589.9
607.2
613.0
496.1
499.1
503.4
479.2
479.4
32.5
32.1
31.8
31.4
31.0
29.7
29.7
29.8
29.9
29.9
1.63
1.65
1.73
1.78
1.80
28.6
28.7
28.9
29.0
29.1
29.3
29.4
29.4
29.5
29.5
39.6
40.1
40.9
41.7
42.3
6,650
6,603
6,602
6,232
6,110
76.0
76.2
76.6
76.9
..
80.6
80.7
80.9
81.2
..
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.0
2006
..
635.7 470.3p
..
1.878,p
29.2p
29.5 43.0
5,9168,p
..
5.0p
Wales
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2,799.3
2,813.5
2,810.9
2,873.0
2,891.3
33.4
35.8
37.0
38.1
34.9
36.3
35.0
34.7
34.1
34.6
42.0
37.6
34.3
34.4
34.9
30.9
31.6
32.5
33.5
33.7
1.78
1.87
1.86
1.88
1.81
..
..
26.9
27.1
27.5
26.0
26.6
26.5
27.0
27.8
8.6
11.2
21.1
32.3
41.2
10,858
9,846
9,043
8,149
7,758
..
70.4
71.6
73.1
73.9
..
76.4
77.5
78.8
79.1
13.7
12.6
9.5
6.6
5.6
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2,910.2
2,923.4
2,938.0
2,952.5
2,958.6
30.6
30.2
31.4
32.3
32.6
33.0
33.2
33.7
32.1
32.1
33.7
33.2
32.7
32.2
31.8
33.6
33.6
33.7
33.9
34.1
1.66
1.63
1.71
1.77
1.79
27.8
28.0
28.1
28.2
28.4
28.3
28.4
28.5
28.5
28.5
48.3
49.7
50.3
51.3
52.4
7,017
6,951
6,980
6,582
6,434
75.4
75.7
76.0
76.3
..
80.1
80.2
80.4
80.7
..
5.4
4.5
4.3
4.9
4.1
2006
..
33.6 31.1p
..
..
1.848,p
28.5p 28.6 53.0
6,1908,p
..
..
4.1p
Scotland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
5,233.4
5,180.2
5,111.8
5,083.3
5,092.2
64.9
69.1
65.8
67.0
59.3
65.3
63.8
63.5
61.0
60.7
44.7
38.2
33.6
32.4
32.3
28.4
28.4
28.1
28.9
29.2
1.79
1.84
1.67
1.69
1.56
..
..
27.1
27.5
28.0
26.0
26.3
26.6
27.4
28.5
9.3
12.2
20.6
29.1
36.0
11,675
10,849
10,120
9,216
8,791
..
69.1
70.2
71.4
72.2
..
75.3
76.2
77.1
77.9
14.8
11.3
8.8
7.1
6.2
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
5,064.2
5,054.8
5,057.4
5,078.4
5,094.8
52.5
51.3
52.4
54.0
54.4
57.4
58.1
58.5
56.2
55.7
30.8
30.3
29.9
29.5
29.1
30.0
30.2
30.3
30.5
30.6
1.49
1.48
1.54
1.60
1.62
28.5
28.6
28.7
28.9
29.0
29.2
29.2
29.3
29.4
29.5
43.3
44.0
45.5
46.7
47.1
7,930
7,955
7,922
7,536
7,349
73.3
73.5
73.8
74.2
74.6p
78.8
78.9
79.1
79.3
79.6p
5.5
5.3
5.1
4.9
5.2
2006
..
55.7
55.1p
..
..
1.678,p
29.1p
29.5
47.7 7,1618,p
..
..
Northern Ireland
1976
1,523.5
1981
1,543.0
1986
1,573.5
1991
1,607.3
1996
1,661.8
26.4
27.2
28.0
26.0
24.4
17.0
16.3
16.1
15.1
15.2
56.1
50.6
46.1
44.1
41.8
25.3
25.3
25.5
26.1
25.5
2.68
2.59
2.45
2.16
1.95
..
28.1
28.1
28.3
28.7
27.4
27.5
27.5
28.0
28.8
5.0
7.0
12.8
20.3
26.0
11,746
10,567
10,071
8,303
7,742
..
69.2
70.9
72.6
73.8
..
75.5
77.1
78.4
79.2
18.3
13.2
13.2
7.4
5.8
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1,689.3
1,696.6
1,702.6
1,710.3
1,724.4
22.0
21.4
21.6
22.3
22.3
14.5
14.6
14.5
14.4
14.2
38.6
37.9
37.2
36.4
35.8
25.5
25.7
25.9
26.2
26.3
1.80
1.77
1.81
1.87
1.87
29.1
29.2
29.2
29.4
29.5
29.4
29.5
29.5
29.7
29.7
32.5
33.5
34.4
34.5
36.3
6,976
6,930
6,744
6,609
6,418
75.2
75.6
75.8
76.0
..
80.1
80.4
80.6
80.8
..
6.1
4.7
5.3
5.5
6.3
2006
..
23.3p
14.5p
..
..
1.958,p
29.6 p
29.7p
38.0 p
6,3978,p
..
..
5.2p
..
Note: Death figures for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each
year up to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993 to 2005.
Provisional death figures for 2006 relate to registrations.
Birth and death figures for England and also for Wales each exclude events for persons
usually resident outside England and Wales. These events are, however, included in the
total for the United Kingdom. From 1981 births to non-resident mothers in Northern
Ireland are excluded from the figures for Northern Ireland, and for the United Kingdom.
1 Percentage of children under 16 to working-age population (males 16–64 and females
16–59).
2 Percentage of males 65 and over and females 60 and over to working-age population
(males 16–64 and females 16–59).
..
4.5p
3 TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if current
patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes called the
TPFR (total period fertility rate).
4 Standardised to take account of the age structure of the population.
5 Unstandardised and therefore takes no account of the age structure of the population.
6 Per million population. The age-standardised mortality rate makes allowances for changes
in the age structure of the population. See Notes to tables.
7 Deaths at age under one year per 1,000 live births.
8 Calculated using 2004–based population projections for 2006.
p provisional
45
National Statistics
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 3.1
Autumn 2007
Live births: age of mother
England and Wales Numbers (thousands), rates, mean age and TFRs
Age of mother at birth
Age of mother at birth
Mean
Year and All
Under 20–24 25–29
30–34 35–39 40 and
age1
All
Under 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and
quarter
ages
20
over
(years)
ages
20
over
Total live births (numbers)
Age-specific fertility rates4,5
TFR3
Mean age2
(years)
1961
811.3
59.8
249.8
248.5
152.3
77.5
23.3
27.6
89.2
37.3
172.6
176.9
103.1
48.1
15.0
27.4
2.77
1964(max)
876.0
76.7
276.1
270.7
153.5
75.4
23.6
27.2
92.9
42.5
181.6
187.3
107.7
49.8
13.7
27.3
2.93
1966
849.8
86.7
285.8
253.7
136.4
67.0
20.1
26.8
90.5
47.7
176.0
174.0
97.3
45.3
12.5
27.1
2.75
1971
783.2
82.6
285.7
247.2
109.6
45.2
12.7
26.2
83.5
50.6
152.9
153.2
77.1
32.8
8.7
26.6
2.37
1976
584.3
57.9
182.2
220.7
90.8
26.1
6.5
26.4
60.4
32.2
109.3
118.7
57.2
18.6
4.8
26.5
1.71
1977(min)
569.3
54.5
174.5
207.9
100.8
25.5
6.0
26.5
58.1
29.4
103.7
117.5
58.6
18.2
4.4
26.6
1.66
1981
634.5
56.6
194.5
215.8
126.6
34.2
6.9
26.8
61.3
28.1
105.3
129.1
68.6
21.7
4.9
27.0
1.79
1986
661.0
57.4
192.1
229.0
129.5
45.5
7.6
27.0
60.6
30.1
92.7
123.8
78.0
24.6
4.8
27.4
1.77
1991
699.2
52.4
173.4
248.7
161.3
53.6
9.8
27.7
63.6
33.0
89.3
119.4
86.7
32.1
5.3
27.7
1.82
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
689.7
673.5
664.7
648.1
649.5
47.9
45.1
42.0
41.9
44.7
163.3
152.0
140.2
130.7
125.7
244.8
236.0
229.1
217.4
211.1
166.8
171.1
179.6
181.2
186.4
56.7
58.8
63.1
65.5
69.5
10.2
10.5
10.7
11.3
12.1
27.9
28.1
28.4
28.5
28.6
63.6
62.7
62.0
60.5
60.6
31.7
30.9
28.9
28.5
29.7
86.1
82.5
79.0
76.4
77.0
117.6
114.4
112.2
108.4
106.6
87.4
87.4
89.4
88.3
89.8
33.4
34.1
35.8
36.3
37.5
5.8
6.2
6.4
6.8
7.2
27.8
27.9
28.1
28.2
28.2
1.80
1.76
1.75
1.72
1.74
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
643.1
635.9
621.9
604.4
594.6
46.4
48.3
48.4
45.8
44.2
118.6
113.5
110.7
107.7
108.8
202.8
193.1
181.9
170.7
159.9
187.5
188.5
185.3
180.1
178.9
74.9
78.9
81.3
85.0
86.5
12.9
13.6
14.3
15.1
16.3
28.8
28.9
29.0
29.1
29.2
60.0
59.2
57.8
55.9
54.7
30.2
30.9
30.9
29.3
28.0
76.0
74.9
73.0
70.0
69.0
104.3
101.5
98.3
94.3
91.7
89.8
90.6
89.6
87.9
88.0
39.4
40.4
40.6
41.4
41.5
7.6
7.9
8.1
8.3
8.8
28.3
28.3
28.4
28.5
28.6
1.73
1.72
1.70
1.65
1.63
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
596.1
621.5
639.7
645.8
669.6
43.5
44.2
45.1
44.8
45.5
110.9
116.6
121.1
122.1
127.8
153.4
156.9
160.0
164.3
172.6
180.5
187.2
190.6
188.2
189.4
90.5
97.4
102.2
104.1
110.5
17.3
19.1
20.8
22.2
23.7
29.3
29.4
29.4
29.5
29.5
54.7
56.8
58.2
58.4
60.4p
27.0
26.8
26.9
26.3
26.6p
69.2
71.2
72.7
71.7
74.3p
91.6
96.4
98.4
98.8
100.9p
89.8
94.8
99.4
100.9
105.5p
43.0
46.4
48.9
50.3
53.8p
9.1
9.8
10.4
10.8
11.4p
28.7
28.8
28.9
29.0
29.1p
1.65
1.73
1.78
1.80
1.87p
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
143.3
147.2
155.0
150.6
10.5
10.4
11.4
11.2
26.5
26.7
28.9
28.8
37.4
37.9
39.9
38.2
43.2
45.5
46.9
45.0
21.6
22.4
23.4
23.0
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.5
29.3
29.4
29.3
29.3
53.3
54.1
56.4
54.8
26.4
26.0
28.0
27.6
67.1
66.8
71.5
71.1
90.6
90.7
94.7
90.5
87.1
90.9
92.5
88.8
41.7
42.7
44.2
43.5
8.7
9.0
9.4
9.3
28.7
28.8
28.7
28.7
1.61
1.63
1.70
1.65
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
147.4
155.1
162.8
156.0
10.9
10.7
11.5
11.2
27.9
28.5
30.5
29.7
37.5
39.3
41.0
39.1
44.0
47.4
49.3
46.5
22.6
24.5
25.6
24.6
4.6
4.7
5.0
4.8
29.3
29.5
29.4
29.4
54.6
56.9
59.0
56.6
26.7
25.9
27.6
27.0
69.0
70.0
73.9
72.1
93.4
97.0
100.1
95.2
90.3
96.3
99.1
93.5
43.7
46.9
48.3
46.5
9.6
9.6
10.1
9.8
28.8
28.9
28.9
28.8
1.66
1.73
1.79
1.72
2004March
June
Sept
Dec
155.2
157.4
165.4
161.7
11.0
10.7
11.7
11.6
29.3
29.3
31.4
31.1
38.7
39.4
41.6
40.3
46.6
47.7
49.0
47.2
24.7
25.2
26.3
26.0
4.9
5.0
5.4
5.5
29.4
29.5
29.4
29.4
56.8
57.6
59.9
58.6
26.5
25.7
27.7
27.6
70.7
70.9
74.9
74.3
95.8
97.4
101.9
98.5
97.7
100.2
101.8
98.0
47.4
48.5
50.1
49.4
9.8
10.1
10.7
10.9
28.9
29.0
28.9
28.9
1.74
1.77
1.84
1.80
2005March
June
Sept
Dec
154.3
159.8
170.2
161.7
10.9
10.7
11.9
11.3
29.3
29.6
32.5
30.7
38.9
40.3
43.7
41.4
45.0
47.5
49.4
46.3
24.7
26.2
26.9
26.3
5.4
5.4
5.7
5.7
29.4
29.5
29.4
29.4
56.6
57.9
61.1
58.0
26.0
25.3
27.6
26.3
69.7
69.8
75.8
71.5
94.9
97.2
104.2
98.8
97.8
102.2
105.1
98.5
48.5
50.7
51.6
50.3
10.7
10.6
11.1
11.0
29.0
29.1
29.0
29.0
1.74
1.78
1.88
1.79
2006March
June
Sept
Dec
159.5
166.2
174.9
169.0
11.1
11.4
12.0
11.1
30.5
31.2
33.5
32.6
40.7
42.9
45.6
43.5
45.3
47.6
49.0
47.5
26.3
27.1
28.9
28.1
5.6
5.9
6.0
6.2
29.5
29.5
29.4
29.5
58.4P
60.2P
62.6P
60.5p
26.3P
26.6P
27.8P
25.7p
71.9P
72.8P
77.2P
75.1p
96.3P
100.6P
105.7P
100.7p
102.3P
106.4P
108.2P
105.0p
51.9P
52.9P
55.8P
54.3p
11.0P
11.3P
11.4P
11.8p
29.1p
29.1p
29.1p
29.2p
1.80P
1.86P
1.94P
1.87p
Note: The rates for women of all ages, under 20, and 40 and over are based on the populations of women aged 15–44, 15–19, and 40–44 respectively.
1 Unstandardised and therefore takes no account of the age structure of the population.
2 Standardised to take account of the age structure of the population. This measure is more appropriate for use when analysing trends or making comparisons between different geographies.
3 TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if current patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes called the TPFR
(total period fertility rate).
4 Births per 1,000 women in the age group; all quarterly age-specific fertility rates are adjusted for days in the quarter. They are notadjusted for seasonality.
5 Birth rates for 2006 are based on the 2004-based population projections for 2006.
p provisional
National Statistics
46
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 3.2
Live births outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration
England and Wales Autumn 2007
Numbers (thousands), mean age and percentages
Age of mother at birth
Age of mother at birth
Registration2
Year and All
Under 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and Mean
All Under 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and
Joint
Sole
quarter
ages
20
over
age1
ages
20
over
(years)
Same3 Different3
address addresses
As a percentage of all
births outside marriage
8.4
26.1
7.7
4.7
5.7
7.0
9.0 45.5
9.2
34.2
9.1
4.4
5.2
8.6
10.1 51.0
12.8
46.7
14.8
6.6
6.2
3.9
12.5 58.2
21.4
69.0
28.2
12.1
10.1
12.6
14.7
46.6
19.6
30.2
82.9
44.9
21.1
16.0
18.3
21.3
54.6
19.8
31.2
83.7
47.2
22.8
17.3
19.3
22.9
55.4
20.7
32.2
84.8
49.4
24.4
18.4
20.2
23.5
54.8
22.0
32.4
85.5
50.6
25.5
18.9
21.2
25.2
57.5
19.8
33.9
86.6
53.3
27.4
20.4
22.0
26.2
58.1
20.1
35.8
88.0
56.5
29.5
21.7
23.4
26.7
58.1
19.9
37.0
88.7
58.6
31.3
22.5
24.3
28.6
59.5
19.3
37.8
89.1
59.7
32.3
23.3
24.8
29.0
60.9
18.3
38.9
89.0
61.0
33.6
24.3
25.6
30.2
61.8
18.2
39.5
89.7
62.6
34.6
24.4
26.2
31.0
62.7
18.2
40.0
89.5
62.6
35.5
25.3
26.9
31.6
63.2
18.4
40.6
89.5
63.3
36.4
25.7
27.7
32.2
63.7
18.5
41.4
90.2
64.9
37.1
26.3
28.5
33.3
63.5
19.0
42.2
91.0
65.9
38.4
26.6
29.0
34.0
63.6
19.6
42.8
91.8
67.2
39.2
27.0
29.1
34.8
63.5
20.2
43.5
93.0
68.6
40.1
27.1
29.2
35.5
63.7
20.8
40.5
89.4
63.0
36.4
25.4
27.7
31.5
63.2
18.5
39.6
89.4
62.2
35.6
25.0
27.2
31.7
64.2
18.2
40.9
89.3
63.8
36.6
26.1
27.9
32.7
63.9
18.5
41.4
89.7
64.1
36.9
26.4
28.0
32.8
63.3
18.9
41.4
90.1
64.5
37.0
26.9
29.1
33.3
63.0
18.9
40.5
90.0
64.0
36.2
25.7
28.3
33.7
64.0
18.5
41.5
90.2
65.6
38.3
26.4
28.6
33.3
63.7
19.3
42.2
90.4
65.6
38.0
27.7
29.5
32.9
63.3
19.4
42.0
91.2
65.8
38.2
26.8
28.2
34.3
63.1
19.4
41.4
91.0
65.1
37.7
26.2
28.8
34.5
63.9
19.5
42.4
91.2
66.1
38.6
26.5
30.0
33.5
63.7
19.7
42.7
90.6
66.6
39.0
27.0
29.0
33.9
63.6
19.8
43.0
92.0
67.0
39.0
27.1
29.6
35.2
63.1
20.3
41.7
91.2
66.5
38.2
26.4
28.1
33.5
63.7
19.8
43.3
92.0
68.0
39.6
27.2
29.3
35.7
63.7
20.3
43.2
92.1
67.4
39.8
27.3
29.5
34.8
63.5
20.3
43.1
93.1
68.1
39.4
26.5
28.9
34.4
63.1
20.9
43.0
92.6
68.0
39.4
26.9
28.8
35.0
63.7
20.6
43.9
92.8
69.0
40.7
27.3
29.2
36.9
64.1
20.5
44.1
93.3
69.2
40.9
27.8
29.8
35.7
63.6
21.0
54.5
49.0
41.8
{
1971
65.7
21.6
22.0
11.5
6.2
3.2
1.1
23.7
1976
53.8
19.8
16.6
9.7
4.7
2.3
0.7
23.3
1981
81.0
26.4
28.8
14.3
7.9
1.3
0.9
23.4
1986
141.3
39.6
54.1
27.7
13.1
5.7
1.1
23.8
1991
211.3
43.4
77.8
52.4
25.7
9.8
2.1
24.8
1992
215.2
40.1
77.1
55.9
28.9
10.9
2.3
25.2
1993
216.5
38.2
75.0
57.5
31.4
11.9
2.5
25.5
1994
215.5
35.9
71.0
58.5
34.0
13.4
2.7
25.8
1995
219.9
36.3
69.7
59.6
37.0
14.4
3.0
26.0
1996
232.7
39.3
71.1
62.3
40.5
16.2
3.2
26.1
1997
238.2
41.1
69.5
63.4
42.2
18.2
3.7
26.2
1998
240.6
43.0
67.8
62.4
43.9
19.6
3.9
26.3
1999
241.9
43.0
67.5
61.2
45.0
20.8
4.3
26.4
2000
238.6
41.1
67.5
59.1
43.9
22.3
4.7
26.5
2001
238.1
39.5
68.1
56.8
45.2
23.3
5.1
26.7
2002
242.0
38.9
70.2
55.8
46.4
25.1
5.6
26.8
2003
257.2
39.9
75.7
58.2
49.2
27.8
6.4
26.9
269.7
41.0
79.8
61.4
50.7
29.7
7.1
27.0
2004
2005
276.5
41.2
82.1
64.4
50.8
30.3
7.7
27.0
2006
291.4
42.3
87.7
69.3
51.4 32.2
8.4
27.0
58.0
9.4
16.7
13.6
10.9
6.0
1.3
26.8
2002 March
June
58.3
9.3
16.6
13.5
11.4
6.1
1.4
26.8
Sept
63.4
10.2
18.4
14.6
12.3
6.5
1.5
26.8
Dec
62.3
10.0
18.4
14.1
11.9
6.5
1.5
26.8
2003 March
61.0
9.8
18.0
13.9
11.6
6.3
1.5
26.8
June
62.8
9.6
18.3
14.2
12.2
6.9
1.6
27.0
Sept
67.6
10.3
20.0
15.3
13.0
7.3
1.7
26.9
Dec
65.8
10.2
19.5
14.9
12.5
7.3
1.6
26.9
2004 March
65.2
10.1
19.3
14.8
12.5
7.0
1.7
26.9
June
65.2
9.8
19.1
14.9
12.5
7.3
1.7
27.0
Sept
70.2
10.7
20.7
16.1
13.0
7.9
1.8
27.0
Dec
69.1
10.6
20.7
15.7
12.7
7.5
1.9
26.9
2005 March
66.3
10.1
19.6
15.2
12.2
7.3
1.9
27.0
June
66.6
9.8
19.7
15.4
12.5
7.4
1.8
27.0
Sept
73.7
10.9
22.1
17.3
13.4
7.9
2.1
26.9
Dec
69.9
10.4
20.7
16.5
12.6
7.7
2.0
27.0
2006 March
68.7
10.3
20.8
16.0
12.0
7.6
1.9
26.9
June
71.4
10.5
21.2
16.9
12.8
7.8
2.1
27.0
Sept
76.8
11.1
23.1
18.6
13.4
8.4
2.2
27.0
Dec
74.5
10.3
22.6
17.8
13.2
8.4
2.2
27.1
Percentage of total live births
in age group
{
Live births outside marriage (numbers)
1 Unstandardised and therefore takes no account of the age structure of the population.
2 Births outside marriage can be registered by both the mother and father (joint) or by the mother alone (sole). 3 Usual address(es) of parents.
47
National Statistics
33.8
25.6
23.9
23.2
22.7
21.8
21.9
21.2
20.8
19.9
19.2
18.4
17.8
17.4
16.8
16.3
15.6
18.3
17.7
17.5
17.8
18.1
17.4
18.0
17.4
17.4
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.5
16.0
16.2
16.0
15.6
15.4
15.4
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 3.3
Autumn 2007
Live births: within marriage, within marriage to remarried women, age of mother and birth order1
England and Wales Numbers (thousands) and mean age
Age of mother at birth
Mean Age of mother at birth
age2 Year and
All
Under 20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39 40 and (years)
All
Under
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39 40 and
quarter
ages
20
over
ages
20
over
Mean
age2
(years)
Live births within marriage Live births within marriage to remarried women
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
717.5
530.5
553.5
519.7
487.9
61.1
38.1
30.1
17.8
8.9
263.7
165.6
165.7
138.0
95.6
235.7
211.0
201.5
201.3
196.3
103.4
86.1
118.7
116.4
135.5
42.1
23.9
31.5
39.8
43.8
11.6
5.8
6.0
6.4
7.7
26.4
26.6
27.2
27.9
28.9
19.4
26.7
38.8
41.7
39.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
2.1
2.9
3.6
2.6
1.6
6.6
10.5
13.4
13.2
10.8
6.1
8.7
14.1
15.4
15.8
3.4
3.6
6.2
8.7
9.1
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.7
2.1
33.1
30.4
30.9
31.7
32.4
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
428.2
416.8
404.9
395.3
380.0
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.3
61.0
54.7
49.1
45.7
43.2
157.9
148.8
139.4
130.7
120.7
144.2
145.9
145.3
144.6
140.3
51.1
53.3
56.7
59.3
60.5
8.4
8.9
9.2
9.6
9.9
29.8
30.0
30.3
30.5
30.6
33.3
32.6
31.4
30.2
27.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
7.2
6.4
5.8
5.1
4.3
14.0
13.9
13.1
12.4
11.3
9.1
9.3
9.5
9.7
9.1
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
33.2
33.4
33.6
33.9
34.1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
365.8
356.5
354.1
364.2
370.0
369.3
378.2
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.3
4.1
3.7
3.2
40.3
40.7
40.7
40.9
41.3
40.0
40.1
111.6
103.1
97.6
98.7
98.5
100.0
103.3
136.2
133.7
134.1
138.0
139.8
137.4
138.0
62.7
63.2
65.4
69.6
72.6
73.8
78.3
10.4
11.1
11.8
12.7
13.7
14.5
15.3
30.8
30.9
31.0
31.2
31.2
31.3
31.4
25.8
23.9
22.8
22.6
21.5
20.0
18.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
3.7
3.1
2.7
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.9
10.4
9.5
8.9
8.4
7.7
6.8
6.1
8.9
8.6
8.5
8.8
8.6
8.1
7.7
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.7
34.3
34.5
34.7
35.0
35.1
35.3
35.4
2005March
June
Sept
Dec
88.0
93.2
96.4
91.7
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
9.7
9.9
10.4
10.0
23.7
24.9
26.4
24.9
32.8
35.0
36.0
33.7
17.4
18.8
19.0
18.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.7
31.3
31.3
31.3
31.3
4.9
5.0
5.3
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.0
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
35.3
35.2
35.3
35.3
2006March
June Sept
Dec
90.8
94.8
98.1
94.5
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.7
9.8
10.0
10.4
10.0
24.6
26.0
27.0
25.7
33.3
34.8
35.6
34.3
18.7
19.3
20.5
19.8
3.7
3.8
3.8
4.0
31.4
31.4
31.4
31.4
4.6
4.7
4.9
4.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
35.3
35.4
35.4
35.5
First live births Second live births
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
283.6
217.2
224.3
206.9
193.7
49.5
30.2
23.6
13.8
6.7
135.8
85.4
89.5
74.7
51.2
74.8
77.2
77.2
79.3
84.5
17.2
19.7
27.8
30.8
40.2
5.1
3.9
5.4
7.5
9.7
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.3
23.9
24.8
25.3
26.2
27.5
240.8
203.6
205.7
189.2
178.3
10.7
7.4
6.1
3.6
2.0
93.6
62.5
59.0
47.5
32.8
94.1
91.8
82.7
78.9
73.9
31.8
34.7
47.7
45.5
53.0
8.9
6.2
9.1
12.3
14.7
1.7
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.9
26.2
26.8
27.4
28.0
28.9
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
168.1
163.0
157.0
155.7
153.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.3
32.3
28.9
25.9
24.3
23.5
71.0
67.2
63.1
60.6
57.4
46.6
47.7
48.1
49.5
50.0
12.1
13.1
13.8
15.0
16.1
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
28.5
28.8
29.0
29.2
29.3
158.1
153.8
150.4
146.9
139.5
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
20.6
18.5
16.6
15.5
14.4
57.3
53.4
50.0
46.4
41.8
58.5
59.1
59.4
58.9
56.6
18.1
19.2
20.7
22.2
22.6
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.8
3.1
30.0
30.3
30.5
30.7
30.9
2000
2001 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
146.5
143.9
145.2
151.0
154.5
156.0
161.1
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.6
21.6
22.2
22.4
22.2
22.6
22.1
22.7
52.7
48.8
47.1
48.4
48.9
50.0
51.9
49.4
49.7
51.0
54.2
55.5
55.7
56.4
16.6
16.8
18.1
19.6
20.7
21.4
23.4
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.5
3.8
4.0
29.6
29.6
29.8
29.9
30.0
30.1
30.2
134.7
132.2
130.3
132.9
133.7
132.0
134.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
13.7
13.7
13.5
13.9
13.8
13.2
12.8
38.4
35.7
33.0
32.5
31.9
32.1
32.8
54.8
53.8
53.7
54.3
54.5
52.8
52.8
23.8
24.8
25.6
27.1
28.3
28.6
30.5
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.2
4.5
4.8
5.0
31.1
31.2
31.4
31.5
31.6
31.7
31.8
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
36.4
38.6
41.0
39.9
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
5.2
5.5
5.8
5.6
11.6
12.4
13.2
12.7
13.0
13.7
14.6
14.2
5.0
5.3
5.6
5.6
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.0
30.1
30.1
30.1
30.2
31.9
34.1
34.2
31.8
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.2
7.8
8.2
8.3
7.7
12.7
13.9
13.7
12.5
6.8
7.4
7.4
7.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
31.6
31.7
31.7
31.7
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
37.8
39.5
42.2
41.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
5.4
5.5
5.9
5.9
12.1
12.8
13.8
13.2
13.4
13.8
14.7
14.5
5.4
5.6
6.2
6.2
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.1
30.2
30.2
30.2
30.3
32.5
35.0
34.3
32.7
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.1
7.9
8.5
8.4
7.9
12.8
13.9
13.4
12.8
7.3
7.8
8.0
7.5
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.3
31.7
31.8
31.8
31.8
Third live births Fourth and higher order live births3
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
111.7
71.0
82.4
80.8
76.1
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
26.6
14.4
14.1
12.7
9.4
43.6
29.8
29.5
30.2
26.8
27.9
19.5
28.7
25.6
27.5
10.4
5.8
8.7
10.5
10.5
2.2
1.1
1.0
1.5
1.8
28.7
28.8
29.5
29.9
30.4
81.4
38.8
41.1
42.7
39.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.6
3.3
3.1
3.1
2.3
23.2
12.2
12.0
13.0
11.1
26.5
12.1
14.5
14.5
14.8
17.6
8.0
8.3
9.4
8.9
6.5
3.1
3.2
2.8
2.7
30.7
30.7
31.1
31.2
31.6
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
66.7
65.3
63.2
60.4
56.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
6.5
5.8
5.3
4.7
4.2
20.5
19.6
18.1
16.4
14.7
26.1
26.0
25.1
24.0
22.3
11.7
12.0
12.7
13.1
13.0
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
31.1
31.3
31.5
31.8
32.0
35.3
34.7
34.2
32.3
30.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.1
9.0
8.6
8.1
7.4
6.8
13.1
13.1
12.7
12.1
11.4
9.2
9.0
9.4
9.0
8.8
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
32.0
32.2
32.4
32.6
32.7
2000
54.9
0.1
4.0
14.1
21.1
13.5
2.2
32.1
29.7
0.0
1.0
6.4
10.9
8.7
2.7
32.8
2001 52.1
0.1
3.9
12.8
19.8
13.2
2.3
32.2
28.3
0.0
0.9
5.9
10.4
8.4
2.7
33.0
2002
50.3
0.1
3.9
11.8
19.0
13.1
2.4
32.3
28.2
0.0
0.9
5.6
10.3
8.5
2.8
33.1
2003
52.0
0.1
3.8
12.1
19.2
14.1
2.6
32.5
28.4
0.0
1.0
5.7
10.2
8.8
2.8
33.1
2004
52.5
0.1
4.0
12.1
19.3
14.3
2.7
32.5
29.3
0.0
0.9
5.7
10.5
9.2
2.9
33.2
2005
52.2
0.1
3.8
12.3
18.7
14.5
2.9
32.5
29.2
0.0
0.9
5.6
10.2
9.4
3.0
33.3
2006
53.0
0.1
3.7
12.8
18.5
15.0
3.1
32.6
29.6
0.0
0.9
5.9
10.3
9.4
3.1
33.2
2005 March
12.6
0.0
0.9
3.0
4.5
3.4
0.7
32.5
7.1
0.0
0.2
1.3
2.5
2.3
0.8
33.4
June
13.1
0.0
0.9
3.0
4.8
3.7
0.7
32.6
7.3
0.0
0.2
1.3
2.6
2.4
0.7
33.4
Sept
13.8
0.0
1.0
3.3
4.9
3.8
0.7
32.5
7.5
0.0
0.2
1.5
2.7
2.3
0.8
33.2
Dec
12.8
0.0
0.9
3.0
4.5
3.6
0.7
32.6
7.2
0.0
0.2
1.4
2.4
2.4
0.8
33.3
2006March
June
Sept
Dec
13.1
13.2
13.9
12.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.8
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.1
4.6
4.6
4.9
4.5
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
32.5
32.5
32.6
32.7
7.4
7.2
7.6
7.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.5
1 Birth order is based on all live births within marriage to the mother by her present or any former husband.
2 The mean ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age, marital status or parity.
3 Mean age at birth refers to fourth live births only.
National Statistics
48
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
33.3
33.2
33.2
33.3
P o p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 4.1
Autumn 2007
Conceptions: age of woman at conception England and Wales (residents) Numbers (thousands) and rates; and percentage terminated by abortion
Age of woman at conception
Year and quarter
All ages
Under 16
Under 18
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and over
(a) numbers (thousands)
1991
1996
853.7
816.9
7.5
8.9
40.1
43.5
101.6
94.9
233.3
179.8
281.5
252.6
167.5
200.0
57.6
75.5
12.1
14.1
1999
2000 2001
2002 2003
2004
20051P
774.0
767.0
763.7
787.0
806.8
826.8
837.4
7.9
8.1
7.9
7.9
8.0
7.6
7.9
42.0
41.3
41.0
42.0
42.2
42.2
42.2
98.8
97.7
96.0
97.1
98.6
101.3
101.9
157.6
159.0
161.6
167.8
175.3
181.3
184.6
218.5
209.3
199.3
199.4
199.8
205.1
210.1
197.1
195.3
196.7
204.3
209.0
209.6
208.1
86.0
88.7
92.2
98.9
103.1
106.8
109.3
16.0
17.0
17.8
19.6
20.9
22.8
23.4
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
198.2
198.5
200.1
210.0
1.9
2.1
2.0
2.0
10.5
10.8
10.2
10.7
24.5
24.7
23.7
25.7
42.9
43.2
43.1
46.1
49.4
49.1
49.3
52.0
51.2
51.1
52.8
54.0
25.2
25.2
26.1
26.7
4.9
5.2
5.2
5.6
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
207.9
200.1
203.6
215.2
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.9
10.9
10.6
10.0
10.8
26.2
25.0
24.0
26.1
45.9
43.7
44.1
47.7
51.1
49.3
50.7
54.0
52.6
50.4
52.7
54.0
26.6
25.9
26.6
27.6
5.6
5.7
5.6
5.8
2005 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
204.6
204.6
210.7
217.6
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
10.4
10.5
10.4
10.9
25.1
25.1
25.3
26.4
45.4
45.2
45.6
48.4
50.8
51.0
53.3
55.1
51.0
50.7
53.1
53.3
26.6
26.9
27.5
28.4
5.7
5.8
6.0
5.8
213.6
1.8
10.1
25.1
46.7
53.3
51.7
27.9
6.1
2006 March2,3,P
(b) rates (conceptions per thousand women in age group)4
1991
1996
77.7
76.2
8.9
9.5
44.6
46.3
64.1
63.2
120.2
110.1
135.1
127.6
90.1
96.3
34.4
40.7
6.6
8.4
1999
2000 2001 2002
2003
2004
20051P
71.9
70.9
70.3
72.2
73.7
75.3
75.7
8.3
8.3
8.0
7.9
8.0
7.5
7.8
45.1
43.9
42.7
42.8
42.3
41.7
41.3
63.1
62.5
60.8
60.3
59.8
60.3
59.8
103.9
103.2
102.5
104.6
107.1
108.9
108.4
118.0
115.7
114.2
119.1
122.8
126.2
126.3
95.3
95.3
96.7
101.6
105.9
109.4
111.6
42.9
43.2
44.3
47.0
49.1
51.0
52.8
9.1
9.4
9.6
10.3
10.7
11.4
11.4
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
73.5
72.8
72.5
76.0
7.8
8.3
7.9
7.8
42.8
43.3
40.5
42.5
60.8
60.3
56.8
61.4
107.2
106.1
104.2
110.9
121.8
120.6
120.2
126.8
104.5
103.5
106.4
109.7
48.6
48.0
49.3
50.5
10.3
10.8
10.5
11.2
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
76.2
73.3
73.7
77.8
7.8
7.7
7.1
7.4
43.4
42.1
39.2
42.4
63.1
60.1
56.8
61.6
111.5
105.8
105.0
113.0
126.3
122.1
123.6
131.1
109.1
105.3
109.8
113.2
51.1
49.8
50.6
52.8
11.4
11.5
11.1
11.4
2005 MarchP
June,P
SeptP
DecP
75.2
74.3
75.6
78.0
7.6
7.9
7.8
7.8
41.4
41.1
40.5
42.3
60.0
59.1
58.9
61.5
109.0
106.8
106.0
112.4
124.9
123.2
126.6
130.1
109.9
108.7
113.4
115.0
51.8
52.0
52.7
54.6
11.4
11.4
11.6
11.2
78.2
7.1
40.1
59.6
110.4
127.6
115.1
54.9
12.0
2006 March2.3,P
1991
1996
(c) percentage terminated by abortion
19.4
20.8
51.1
49.2
39.9
40.0
34.5
36.2
22.2
25.7
13.4
15.6
13.7
14.1
22.0
21.2
41.6
37.6
1999
22.6
52.6
43.0
38.6
28.5
17.5
14.7
21.2
37.0
2000 22.7
54.0
44.2
39.3
29.2
17.7
14.5
20.5
35.4
2001
23.2
55.8
45.7
40.4
29.7
18.4
14.6
20.4
34.6
2002 22.5
55.6
45.3
39.9
28.8
17.9
13.9
19.5
34.6
2003
22.5
57.4
45.7
40.2
29.0
17.9
13.6
18.9
34.7
2004
22.4
57.2
45.6
40.1
28.9
18.2
13.2
18.3
33.0
20051P
22.3
57.1
46.4
40.4
28.7
18.0
13.2
17.8
33.0
2003 March
22.8
58.9
46.1
40.2
29.5
17.9
13.8
19.7
34.5
June
23.1
58.3
46.2
40.9
29.3
18.4
14.2
19.2
36.1
Sept
21.6
56.9
45.3
39.5
28.0
17.1
13.0
18.0
33.8
Dec
22.5
55.7
45.0
40.3
29.0
18.1
13.5
18.5
34.5
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
22.7
23.0
21.9
22.0
58.2
57.2
56.8
56.3
45.7
46.3
45.8
44.5
40.2
40.8
40.0
39.3
29.4
29.2
28.4
28.6
18.5
18.6
17.9
17.8
13.4
13.7
12.8
13.0
18.2
19.2
17.8
18.2
32.9
33.5
33.0
32.5
2005 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
22.5
22.7
21.4
22.6
57.5
57.1
56.1
57.5
47.3
45.8
45.3
47.2
41.1
40.3
39.1
41.0
29.2
28.9
27.5
29.1
18.1
18.6
17.5
18.1
13.1
13.9
12.6
13.3
18.0
17.9
17.2
18.0
32.6
33.8
32.1
33.4
2006 March2,3P
22.4
59.2
48.0
41.9
29.5
18.6
13.1
17.6
31.4
Note: Conception figures are estimates derived from birth registrations and abortion notifications.
Rates for women of all ages, under 16, under 18, under 20 and 40 and over are based on the population of women aged 15–44, 13–15, 15–17, 15–19 and 40–44 respectively.
For a quarterly analysis of conceptions to women under 18 for local authority areas see the National Statistics website, www.statistics.gov.uk
1 Final annual figures for 2005 conceptions are not yet available due to the late arrival at ONS of some stillbirth notifications. It is intended that these figures will be published in HSQ no 36.
2 Figures for June quarter 2006 conceptions are not yet available due to problems with the implementation of Registration On line (RON). Please see In Brief in this publication for details.
3 Figures for conceptions by age for the March quarter of 2006 exclude maternities where the mother's age was not recorded.
4 Conception rates for 2006 are based on the 2004-based population projections for 2006.
p provisional
49
National Statistics
Autumn 2007
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 5.1
Period expectation of life at birth and selected age
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Years
Males Females
Year
At At age
Year
At At age
birth
birth
5
20
30
50
60
70
80
5
20
30
50
60
70
80
United Kingdom
1981
1986
1991
1996
70.8
71.9
73.2
74.3
66.9
67.8
68.9
69.8
52.3
53.2
54.2
55.1
42.7
43.6
44.7
45.6
24.1
24.9
26.0
26.9
16.3
16.8
17.7
18.5
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.6
5.8
6.0
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
76.8
77.7
78.7
79.4
72.7
73.4
74.3
74.9
57.9
58.6
59.5
60.1
48.2
48.8
49.7
50.3
29.2
29.8
30.6
31.2
20.8
21.2
21.9
22.3
13.3
13.8
14.3
14.5
7.5
7.8
8.2
8.3
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
74.5
74.8
75.0
75.4
75.7
75.9
76.3
76.6
70.1
70.3
70.6
70.9
71.2
71.5
71.8
72.1
55.4
55.6
55.9
56.2
56.5
56.7
57.0
57.4
45.9
46.1
46.3
46.6
46.9
47.2
47.4
47.8
27.2
27.4
27.6
28.0
28.3
28.5
28.8
29.0
18.8
18.9
19.2
19.5
19.8
20.0
20.2
20.5
11.7
11.9
12.0
12.3
12.5
12.6
12.9
13.1
6.7
6.7
6.8
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
79.6
79.7
79.9
80.2
80.4
80.5
80.7
81.0
75.1
75.2
75.4
75.6
75.9
76.0
76.2
76.4
60.2
60.4
60.5
60.8
61.0
61.1
61.3
61.5
50.4
50.5
50.7
51.0
51.2
51.3
51.5
51.7
31.3
31.4
31.6
31.9
32.1
32.2
32.4
32.6
22.5
22.6
22.8
23.0
23.2
23.3
23.4
23.6
14.6
14.7
14.8
15.0
15.2
15.2
15.3
15.5
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.7
8.7
8.8
England and Wales
1981
1986
1991
1996
71.0
72.1
73.4
74.5
67.1
68.0
69.1
70.1
52.5
53.4
54.4
55.4
42.9
43.8
44.8
45.8
24.3
25.0
26.1
27.1
16.4
16.9
17.8
18.7
10.1
10.5
11.2
11.6
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
77.0
77.9
78.9
79.6
72.9
73.6
74.5
75.1
58.1
58.8
59.7
60.2
48.3
49.0
49.9
50.4
29.4
30.0
30.8
31.3
20.9
21.4
22.0
22.5
13.4
13.9
14.4
14.6
7.5
7.9
8.3
8.4
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
74.8
75.0
75.3
75.6
76.0
76.2
76.5
76.9
70.3
70.6
70.8
71.2
71.5
71.7
72.0
72.4
55.6
55.8
56.1
56.4
56.7
57.0
57.3
57.6
46.1
46.3
46.5
46.9
47.2
47.4
47.7
48.0
27.4
27.6
27.8
28.1
28.5
28.7
28.9
29.2
18.9
19.1
19.3
19.6
19.9
20.1
20.4
20.6
11.8
11.9
12.1
12.3
12.6
12.7
13.0
13.2
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
79.7
79.9
80.1
80.3
80.6
80.7
80.9
81.1
75.2
75.4
75.6
75.8
76.0
76.1
76.4
76.6
60.4
60.5
60.7
61.0
61.2
61.3
61.5
61.7
50.6
50.7
50.9
51.1
51.4
51.5
51.7
51.9
31.5
31.6
31.8
32.0
32.2
32.3
32.5
32.7
22.6
22.7
22.9
23.1
23.3
23.4
23.6
23.8
14.7
14.8
14.9
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.6
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.7
8.8
8.9
England
1981
1986
1991
1996
71.1
72.2
73.4
74.5
67.1
68.1
69.1
70.1
52.5
53.4
54.4
55.4
42.9
43.8
44.9
45.9
24.3
25.1
26.2
27.1
16.4
17.0
17.8
18.7
10.1
10.6
11.2
11.7
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
77.0
77.9
78.9
79.6
72.9
73.6
74.5
75.1
58.2
58.8
59.7
60.3
48.4
49.0
49.9
50.5
29.4
30.0
30.8
31.3
20.9
21.4
22.0
22.5
13.4
13.9
14.4
14.6
7.5
7.9
8.3
8.4
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
74.8
75.0
75.3
75.7
76.0
76.2
76.6
76.9
70.4
70.6
70.9
71.2
71.5
71.8
72.1
72.4
55.6
55.9
56.1
56.5
56.8
57.0
57.3
57.6
46.1
46.3
46.6
46.9
47.2
47.4
47.7
48.0
27.4
27.6
27.9
28.2
28.5
28.7
29.0
29.3
18.9
19.1
19.4
19.6
19.9
20.1
20.4
20.7
11.8
12.0
12.1
12.4
12.6
12.8
13.0
13.2
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.5
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
79.8
79.9
80.1
80.4
80.6
80.7
80.9
81.2
75.3
75.4
75.6
75.8
76.1
76.2
76.4
76.6
60.4
60.6
60.8
61.0
61.2
61.3
61.5
61.8
50.6
50.7
50.9
51.2
51.4
51.5
51.7
51.9
31.5
31.6
31.8
32.0
32.3
32.4
32.6
32.8
22.6
22.7
22.9
23.1
23.4
23.4
23.6
23.8
14.7
14.8
14.9
15.1
15.3
15.3
15.5
15.6
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.7
8.8
8.9
Wales
1981
1986
1991
1996
70.4
71.6
73.1
73.9
66.5
67.5
68.8
69.4
51.9
52.8
54.1
54.7
42.2
43.2
44.6
45.3
23.6
24.6
25.8
26.6
15.8
16.6
17.6
18.2
9.7
10.3
11.0
11.3
5.6
6.0
6.4
6.4
1981
1986
1991
1996
76.4
77.5
78.8
79.1
72.3
73.3
74.3
74.6
57.5
58.5
59.5
59.7
47.7
48.7
49.7
49.9
28.9
29.7
30.6
30.9
20.5
21.1
21.8
22.1
13.1
13.7
14.3
14.4
7.4
7.8
8.3
8.3
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
74.3
74.4
74.7
74.9
75.4
75.7
76.0
76.3
69.8
70.0
70.2
70.5
70.9
71.1
71.4
71.8
55.1
55.2
55.5
55.8
56.2
56.3
56.7
57.0
45.6
45.8
46.1
46.3
46.7
46.9
47.1
47.4
26.9
27.1
27.4
27.6
28.0
28.2
28.5
28.8
18.5
18.6
18.9
19.1
19.5
19.7
20.0
20.3
11.6
11.6
11.9
12.0
12.3
12.4
12.6
12.8
6.6
6.6
6.8
6.8
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.3
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
79.3
79.4
79.6
79.8
80.1
80.2
80.4
80.7
74.8
74.9
75.1
75.3
75.5
75.6
75.8
76.0
60.0
60.0
60.2
60.4
60.6
60.7
60.9
61.2
50.2
50.2
50.4
50.6
50.8
50.9
51.1
51.3
31.1
31.1
31.3
31.5
31.8
31.8
32.0
32.2
22.3
22.3
22.5
22.6
22.9
22.9
23.1
23.3
14.5
14.5
14.6
14.7
14.9
15.0
15.1
15.2
8.4
8.3
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.6
8.7
Scotland
1981
1986
1991
1996
69.1
70.2
71.4
72.2
65.2
66.0
67.1
67.8
50.6
51.4
52.5
53.1
41.1
41.9
43.0
43.7
22.9
23.5
24.6
25.3
15.4
15.8
16.6
17.3
9.6
9.9
10.4
10.9
5.5
5.7
6.1
6.3
1981
1986
1991
1996
75.3
76.2
77.1
77.9
71.2
71.9
72.7
73.3
56.4
57.1
57.9
58.5
46.7
47.3
48.1
48.8
27.9
28.4
29.2
29.8
19.7
20.1
20.7
21.2
12.7
13.0
13.5
13.8
7.2
7.5
7.9
8.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005P
72.4
72.6
72.8
73.1
73.3
73.5
73.8
74.2
74.6
68.0
68.2
68.4
68.6
68.8
69.0
69.3
69.7
70.1
53.3
53.5
53.7
53.9
54.2
54.3
54.6
55.0
55.4
43.9
44.2
44.4
44.6
44.8
45.0
45.2
45.6
45.9
25.6
25.8
26.0
26.3
26.6
26.7
27.0
27.3
27.7
17.5
17.8
18.0
18.2
18.4
18.6
18.8
19.1
19.4
11.0
11.1
11.3
11.5
11.7
11.8
12.0
12.2
12.5
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.8
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.2
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005P
78.0
78.2
78.4
78.6
78.8
78.9
79.1
79.3
79.6
73.5
73.6
73.8
74.0
74.2
74.3
74.5
74.7
75.0
58.7
58.8
59.0
59.2
59.4
59.5
59.7
59.9
60.2
48.9
49.0
49.2
49.4
49.6
49.7
49.9
50.1
50.4
30.0
30.1
30.3
30.5
30.7
30.8
30.9
31.1
31.4
21.4
21.4
21.6
21.8
22.0
22.1
22.2
22.4
22.7
13.9
13.9
14.0
14.1
14.3
14.4
14.5
14.7
14.9
8.0
8.0
8.1
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
Northern Ireland
1981
1986
1991
1996
69.2
70.9
72.6
73.8
65.4
66.8
68.2
69.4
50.9
52.2
53.6
54.7
41.5
42.7
44.1
45.3
23.2
24.2
25.5
26.6
15.6
16.4
17.3
18.2
9.7
10.4
11.0
11.4
5.8
6.2
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
75.5
77.1
78.4
79.2
71.6
72.9
74.0
74.7
56.8
58.1
59.2
59.9
47.1
48.3
49.4
50.0
28.3
29.3
30.3
30.9
20.0
20.8
21.6
22.1
12.8
13.4
14.2
14.4
7.3
7.8
8.3
8.4
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
74.2
74.3
74.5
74.8
75.2
75.6
75.8
76.0
69.7
69.8
70.0
70.4
70.7
71.1
71.4
71.6
55.0
55.2
55.4
55.7
56.1
56.4
56.7
56.9
45.5
45.7
45.9
46.2
46.6
46.9
47.1
47.4
26.8
27.0
27.2
27.6
27.9
28.2
28.4
28.7
18.4
18.6
18.8
19.1
19.4
19.7
19.9
20.2
11.5
11.6
11.7
11.9
12.3
12.4
12.6
12.8
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.9
7.0
7.2
7.3
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
79.5
79.5
79.6
79.8
80.1
80.4
80.6
80.8
75.0
75.0
75.1
75.2
75.6
75.9
76.0
76.3
60.2
60.2
60.2
60.4
60.7
61.0
61.1
61.4
50.3
50.4
50.4
50.6
50.9
51.2
51.3
51.6
31.2
31.2
31.3
31.5
31.8
32.0
32.2
32.5
22.4
22.4
22.5
22.6
22.9
23.1
23.3
23.5
14.5
14.5
14.6
14.6
14.9
15.1
15.2
15.4
8.4
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
Note: Figures from 1981 are calculated from the population estimates revised in the light of the 2001 Census. All figures are based on a three-year period.
p provisional
National Statistics
50
P o p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 6.1
Autumn 2007
Deaths: age and sex
England and Wales Numbers (thousands) and rates
Age group
Year and quarter
All ages
Under 11
1–4
5–9
10–14
15–19
20–24
25–34
35–44
45–54
55–64
65–74
75–84
85 and over
Numbers (thousands)
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
300.1
289.0
287.9
277.6
268.7
4.88
4.12
3.72
2.97
2.27
0.88
0.65
0.57
0.55
0.44
0.68
0.45
0.33
0.34
0.24
0.64
0.57
0.38
0.35
0.29
1.66
1.73
1.43
1.21
0.93
1.66
1.58
1.75
1.76
1.41
3.24
3.18
3.10
3.69
4.06
5.93
5.54
5.77
6.16
5.84
20.4
16.9
14.4
13.3
13.6
52.0
46.9
43.6
34.9
30.1
98.7
92.2
84.4
77.2
71.0
80.3
86.8
96.2
95.8
90.7
29.0
28.5
32.2
39.3
47.8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
264.3
255.5
252.4
253.1
253.9
244.1
243.3
240.9
2.08
1.89
1.81
1.81
1.81
1.79
1.87
1.86
0.41
0.34
0.32
0.32
0.31
0.29
0.28
0.29
0.22
0.22
0.19
0.20
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.19
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.24
0.26
0.25
0.26
0.90
0.87
0.88
0.83
0.81
0.78
0.75
0.84
1.27
1.22
1.27
1.24
1.23
1.15
1.11
1.21
3.85
3.76
3.63
3.47
3.26
3.10
2.89
3.13
5.93
6.05
6.07
6.20
6.32
6.19
6.14
6.32
13.6
13.4
13.3
12.9
12.7
12.2
12.1
12.3
28.7
27.9
27.5
27.7
28.2
27.0
27.3
27.6
64.3
60.6
57.5
56.3
55.1
52.5
51.0
48.9
90.4
87.1
87.0
88.3
89.6
87.3
84.8
81.9
52.3
51.9
52.7
53.6
54.0
51.3
54.7
56.2
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
298.5
288.9
293.3
292.5
291.5
3.46
2.90
2.59
2.19
1.69
0.59
0.53
0.49
0.44
0.32
0.45
0.30
0.25
0.25
0.18
0.42
0.37
0.27
0.22
0.20
0.62
0.65
0.56
0.46
0.43
0.67
0.64
0.67
0.64
0.51
1.94
1.82
1.65
1.73
1.85
4.04
3.74
3.83
3.70
3.66
12.8
10.5
8.8
8.4
8.9
29.6
27.2
25.8
21.3
18.2
67.1
62.8
58.4
54.2
50.2
104.7
103.6
106.5
103.3
96.7
72.1
73.9
83.6
95.7
108.7
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
291.8
280.1
277.9
280.4
284.4
268.4
269.4
261.7
1.55
1.49
1.43
1.31
1.50
1.43
1.39
1.51
0.30
0.25
0.27
0.24
0.28
0.23
0.22
0.27
0.17
0.16
0.19
0.16
0.15
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.22
0.18
0.18
0.19
0.19
0.16
0.18
0.17
0.39
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.35
0.38
0.37
0.38
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.43
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.44
1.67
1.69
1.59
1.61
1.57
1.49
1.42
1.38
3.79
3.87
3.77
3.77
3.86
3.80
3.73
3.80
9.0
9.1
8.9
8.7
8.5
8.1
8.1
8.1
18.0
17.6
17.6
17.7
18.0
17.6
17.8
17.9
45.1
42.2
40.5
39.6
39.0
36.9
36.0
34.5
93.9
89.3
88.8
90.0
92.7
88.3
86.4
81.2
117.2
113.4
113.9
116.3
117.9
109.4
113.2
111.9
Rates (deaths per 1,000 population in each age group)
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
12.5
12.0
11.8
11.2
10.7
16.2
12.6
11.0
8.3
6.8
0.65
0.53
0.44
0.40
0.32
0.34
0.27
0.21
0.21
0.14
0.31
0.29
0.23
0.23
0.18
0.88
0.82
0.72
0.72
0.60
0.96
0.83
0.83
0.89
0.85
0.92
0.89
0.88
0.94
1.01
2.09
1.83
1.68
1.76
1.67
6.97
6.11
5.27
4.56
4.06
19.6
17.7
16.6
13.9
11.9
50.3
45.6
42.8
38.1
34.5
116.4
105.2
101.2
93.1
85.0
243.2
226.5
215.4
205.6
198.8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
20062,P
10.4
10.0
9.9
9.8
9.8
9.4
9.3
9.1
6.5
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.7
5.5
5.7
5.4
0.31
0.26
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.12
0.13
0.11
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.14
0.15
0.14
0.15
0.56
0.54
0.53
0.49
0.46
0.44
0.42
0.47
0.83
0.79
0.80
0.77
0.95
0.68
0.64
0.68
0.99
0.98
0.97
0.95
0.91
0.88
0.82
0.89
1.60
1.59
1.56
1.57
1.58
1.53
1.51
1.54
3.99
3.92
3.89
3.85
3.81
3.67
3.59
3.58
10.9
10.4
10.0
9.7
9.6
9.0
8.9
8.8
31.6
29.7
28.0
27.2
26.3
24.9
24.0
23.0
79.9
75.9
74.0
73.4
72.8
69.8
67.4
64.5
194.4
187.5
186.4
187.5
190.4
175.2
171.6
164.1
2004
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.2
9.1
8.7
9.5
5.9
5.2
5.3
5.5
0.25
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.12
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.15
0.14
0.18
0.11
0.46
0.39
0.46
0.43
0.67
0.74
0.71
0.58
0.92
0.94
0.86
0.78
1.59
1.58
1.47
1.49
3.81
3.72
3.58
3.58
9.4
8.8
8.5
9.2
26.6
24.5
23.2
25.4
76.9
66.9
64.5
70.8
199.3
164.0
154.8
183.0
2005
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.5
9.1
8.3
9.3
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
0.26
0.25
0.20
0.21
0.09
0.10
0.09
0.11
0.17
0.18
0.12
0.11
0.46
0.42
0.40
0.39
0.71
0.59
0.63
0.62
0.88
0.83
0.85
0.73
1.56
1.57
1.44
1.46
3.83
3.53
3.46
3.54
9.7
8.8
8.3
8.8
26.6
23.4
22.2
24.0
77.3
65.8
59.6
66.9
201.2
162.9
146.0
176.9
20062
MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
10.2
9.0
8.4
8.9
5.3
5.5
5.4
5.6
0.29
0.24
0.14
0.26
0.14
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.46
0.46
0.51
0.44
0.73
0.70
0.59
0.70
0.95
0.89
0.83
0.91
1.59
1.57
1.49
1.54
3.81
3.60
3.42
3.49
9.5
8.8
8.3
8.7
25.2
23.1
21.3
22.3
73.5
63.6
58.5
62.5
190.4
159.2
144.4
162.8
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
11.8
11.3
11.4
11.2
11.0
12.2
9.4
8.0
6.4
5.3
0.46
0.46
0.40
0.33
0.25
0.24
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.10
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.15
0.12
0.35
0.32
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.40
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.31
0.56
0.52
0.47
0.44
0.46
1.46
1.26
1.12
1.05
1.04
4.30
3.80
3.24
2.87
2.63
10.1
9.5
9.2
8.2
7.1
26.0
24.1
23.4
21.8
20.6
74.6
66.2
62.5
58.7
55.8
196.6
178.2
169.4
161.6
158.9
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 20062,P
11.0
10.5
10.4
10.4
10.6
9.9
9.9
9.6
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.5
4.9
4.6
4.4
4.6
0.24
0.20
0.22
0.20
0.24
0.20
0.19
0.22
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.13
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.21
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.31
0.30
0.30
0.27
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.43
0.44
0.42
0.44
0.44
0.42
0.40
0.39
1.01
1.00
0.96
0.94
0.95
0.93
0.90
0.92
2.61
2.62
2.57
2.54
2.51
2.39
2.38
2.32
6.7
6.4
6.3
6.0
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.6
19.2
18.1
17.4
17.0
16.7
15.8
15.4
14.8
53.4
50.8
50.1
50.4
51.3
48.6
48.1
45.6
162.6
155.2
155.0
159.4
165.8
154.3
152.7
145.1
2004
March
June
Sept
Dec
11.1
9.4
9.1
10.1
5.3
4.1
4.3
4.6
0.22
0.17
0.20
0.19
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.11
0.10
0.11
0.09
0.09
0.27
0.26
0.20
0.17
0.32
0.27
0.24
0.27
0.42
0.43
0.42
0.40
0.95
0.94
0.88
0.93
2.50
2.41
2.27
2.36
6.0
5.4
5.4
5.9
17.1
15.0
14.9
16.1
53.9
46.5
44.6
49.5
177.0
144.3
137.5
158.4
2005
March
June
Sept
Dec
11.6
9.5
8.7
9.8
4.8
4.7
3.9
4.2
0.22
0.20
0.14
0.19
0.09
0.10
0.06
0.08
0.13
0.10
0.09
0.11
0.20
0.25
0.20
0.22
0.32
0.27
0.24
0.24
0.46
0.37
0.36
0.41
0.95
0.97
0.86
0.84
2.57
2.31
2.32
2.31
6.0
5.5
5.4
5.6
17.3
15.0
13.8
15.3
57.0
46.6
42.0
46.8
184.7
144.2
129.7
152.7
20062
MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
11.1
9.5
8.6
9.2
5.0
4.6
4.3
4.5
0.25
0.22
0.19
0.24
0.07
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.14
0.08
0.12
0.24
0.19
0.23
0.23
0.31
0.25
0.23
0.25
0.39
0.42
0.36
0.41
1.01
0.88
0.90
0.89
2.42
2.34
2.26
2.27
6.1
5.4
5.3
5.4
16.4
14.7
13.7
14.3
52.5
45.4
41.1
43.7
173.6
142.2
125.4
140.0
Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year up to 1992 and the numbers of deaths occurring in each year from 1993 to 2005. Provisional figures for 2006 relate to registrations.
1 Rates per 1,000 live births.
2 Death rates for 2006 are based on the 2004-based population projections for 2006.
p provisional
51
National Statistics
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 6.2
Autumn 2007
Deaths: subnational
Government Office Regions of England Rates
Year and
North East
North
Yorkshire and East Midlands
West
East
London
quarter
West
The Humber
Midlands
South
East
South
West
Total deaths (deaths per 1,000 population of all ages)
1996
11.7
11.7
11.2
10.7
10.7
1997
11.6
11.6
11.1
10.5
10.6
1998
11.9
11.7
11.2
10.8
10.6
1999
11.6
11.5
10.9
10.7
10.7
2000
10.8
10.7
10.3
10.0
10.3
10.3
10.2
10.2
10.3
9.9
9.4
9.0
8.8
8.7
8.2
10.7
10.6
10.4
10.5
9.8
11.7
11.7
11.4
11.6
11.3
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
20061,P
11.1
11.2
11.3
10.9
10.7
10.5
11.0
11.0
11.0
10.5
10.4
10.2
10.4
10.5
10.5
10.1
9.9
9.8
10.1
10.2
10.3
9.7
9.8
9.7
10.2
10.2
10.4
9.8
9.9
9.7
9.9
10.0
9.9
9.5
9.5
9.4
7.9
7.8
7.8
7.2
7.0
6.8
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.4
9.4
9.2
11.0
11.1
11.2
10.4
10.5
10.2
2005
March
June
Sept
Dec
12.1
10.6
9.5
10.7
12.0
10.0
9.2
10.3
11.4
9.6
8.8
9.9
11.1
9.5
8.6
9.9
11.5
9.5
8.8
9.8
10.9
9.2
8.4
9.5
8.2
6.8
6.3
6.9
10.9
9.1
8.3
9.4
12.1
10.2
9.3
10.4
20061
P
March
JunePP
Septp Dec 11.5
10.6
9.4
10.6
11.4
10.2
9.3
9.9
10.8
9.7
8.9
9.7
10.9
9.6
8.8
9.6
11.1
9.6
8.8
9.4
10.8
9.3
8.3
9.1
7.8
6.7
6.2
6.5
10.9
9.0
8.2
8.9
11.7
10.0
9.2
10.0
Infant mortality (deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
6.2
5.8
5.0
5.6
6.5
6.3
6.7
6.3
6.5
6.2
6.5
6.5
6.9
6.3
7.3
6.3
5.7
5.6
6.0
5.4
6.8
7.0
6.5
6.9
6.8
5.3
4.8
5.0
4.6
4.4
6.3
5.8
6.0
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.0
4.4
4.8
4.4
5.5
5.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
5.4
4.8
4.9
4.6
4.7
5.4
5.8
5.4
5.9
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.5
6.1
5.7
5.8
6.0
5.7
4.9
5.6
5.9
4.9
4.8
5.4
6.4
6.6
7.4
6.3
6.6
6.4
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.2
4.0
4.1
6.1
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.2
4.9
4.2
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.9
4.1
5.4
4.3
4.1
4.5
4.5
4.0
2005
March
June
Sept
Dec
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.5
6.1
5.4
4.8
6.1
6.0
7.0
5.4
5.6
7.3
5.1
3.4
3.8
7.1
6.4
7.5
5.6
4.8
4.2
3.7
3.3
5.4
5.7
4.7
5.0
3.9
3.4
4.0
4.4
5.3
4.4
3.6
4.9
2006
P
March
JunePP
SeptP Dec 5.4
6.4
5.4
4.5
6.0
5.5
5.2
5.7
5.4
6.1
4.8
6.6
5.9
5.0
5.3
5.5
6.6
7.0
6.7
5.3
3.8
4.3
3.6
4.6
5.5
4.6
4.8
4.7
4.3
4.2
4.2
3.9
4.2
3.7
3.6
4.7
Neonatal mortality (deaths under 4 weeks per 1,000 live births)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
4.1
3.7
3.1
4.1
4.4
4.0
4.3
4.1
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.1
5.0
4.2
3.7
3.7
4.3
4.1
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.8
5.0
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.0
3.0
4.4
3.7
4.1
4.1
3.7
3.5
3.4
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.8
3.9
3.3
3.2
3.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
3.5
3.2
3.2
2.8
2.9
3.8
3.8
3.6
4.1
3.6
3.8
3.8
3.2
4.0
4.0
3.8
4.0
4.0
3.4
4.0
4.2
3.5
3.5
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.1
4.7
4.9
4.6
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.9
4.1
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
3.7
3.1
2.9
3.2
3.2
2.9
2005
March
June
Sept
Dec
3.3
3.0
2.7
2.8
3.9
3.5
3.1
4.6
4.3
4.3
3.9
3.5
5.1
3.7
2.8
2.4
4.9
4.9
5.7
4.1
2.9
3.0
2.7
1.8
3.2
3.8
3.5
3.0
2.8
2.1
2.9
3.1
3.5
3.2
2.7
3.5
2006
P
March
JunePP
SeptP Dec 4.1
4.0
3.4
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.5
4.1
4.0
4.2
3.3
4.7
4.2
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.6
5.1
5.4
3.2
2.7
3.2
2.5
3.1
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.6
2.9
2.7
2.9
2.5
3.2
2.4
2.6
3.6
Perinatal mortality (stillbirths and deaths under 1 week per 1,000 total births)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
9.2
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.5
8.6
8.9
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.3
8.3
9.2
8.3
9.6
8.7
7.7
8.0
7.8
7.8
10.2
9.6
9.3
9.9
9.6
7.5
7.3
7.4
7.0
7.1
9.6
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
7.8
7.3
6.8
6.9
6.6
7.5
8.7
7.3
7.8
6.6
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005P
2006
7.8
8.1
7.8
7.9
7.8
8.0
8.7
8.5
9.0
8.4
8.2
8.3
7.5
9.0
9.1
9.4
9.4
8.5
7.9
8.5
9.5
8.1
7.6
8.4
9.1
10.0
10.2
9.6
9.9
9.2
7.1
7.5
7.3
7.6
6.4
6.7
8.9
9.3
9.6
9.3
8.5
8.8
6.9
6.9
7.0
7.0
6.8
7.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
7.2
6.8
6.6
2005
March
June
Sept
Dec
6.6
9.2
7.1
8.4
8.4
8.2
7.4
8.9
9.7
10.4
8.6
9.0
9.3
7.6
7.2
6.5
9.0
10.9
11.0
8.8
6.9
7.4
6.1
5.3
8.4
8.8
8.9
7.9
6.7
6.5
7.1
7.0
6.8
7.5
5.7
7.1
2006
P
March
JunePP
SeptP� Dec
8.2
8.7
7.5
7.8
9.0
8.3
8.0
7.8
7.6
9.2
8.4
8.7
8.7
9.1
8.4
7.6
9.6
10.1
9.6
7.4
7.4
7.0
6.6
6.0
9.1
8.7
8.7
8.9
7.6
6.8
6.6
7.0
6.5
6.8
6.2
7.0
Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths occurring in each year with the exception of provisional figures for 2006 which relate to registrations.
1Total deaths rates for 2006 have been calculated using the mid-2005 population estimates published on 24 August 2006
p provisional.
National Statistics
52
Table 7.1
P o p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
15–24
25–44
Males
Males
International migration: age and sex
United Kingdom Numbers (thousands)
Year and quarter
Persons
All ages 0–14
Males
Females
Persons
Males
Females
Persons
Females
Persons
Females
45 and over
Persons
Males
Females
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991 1996 200
191
153
250
328
318
103
100
83
120
157
157
97
91
71
130
171
161
33
32
30
45
53
33
17
16
16
22
23
14
17
17
14
23
30
19
65
64
48
79
106
114
28
32
24
34
47
49
37
32
24
45
59
65
81
77
60
101
139
142
48
43
34
49
73
77
33
34
26
51
66
65
21
18
15
25
31
29
10
9
9
16
14
17
11
9
7
10
17
12
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 326
390
454
483
480
169
207
250
275
260
157
184
204
209
219
43
37
42
36
46
22
18
24
18
25
21
19
18
18
21
126
134
158
161
158
57
65
79
82
77
68
69
80
79
81
131
194
224
244
239
76
109
130
149
135
55
84
94
95
103
27
26
30
43
37
15
15
18
26
22
12
11
13
17
14
2002
2003
2004
2005
513
513
582
565
284
261
297
312
229
252
285
253
38
41
39
26
20
23
25
14
17
18
14
12
185
211
222
228
100
99
105
117
85
112
118
111
256
219
274
272
148
118
147
156
108
101
127
116
35
42
47
39
16
21
20
25
19
21
26
14
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
233
349
116
181
117
167
18
21
13
12
5
8
86
137
38
67
48
70
112
162
56
90
55
72
18
29
9
12
9
17
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
239
326
127
185
112
141
13
13
7
6
6
6
83
145
38
80
45
66
124
148
71
85
53
63
19
20
11
14
8
6
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991 1996 240
210
233
213
285
264
124
118
133
107
146
134
116
93
100
106
139
130
51
40
49
37
44
38
26
20
25
17
19
16
24
21
24
20
25
22
64
52
51
47
76
63
28
26
29
19
39
24
36
25
22
28
37
39
99
97
108
98
131
140
57
59
64
55
69
79
42
38
44
43
62
60
27
21
25
32
33
23
12
12
14
17
18
15
15
9
11
15
15
9
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
279
251
291
321
308
153
131
158
178
173
126
121
133
142
135
29
24
27
26
25
15
15
19
11
14
13
10
8
15
11
86
70
87
84
84
45
31
42
45
41
41
39
45
39
43
138
130
143
175
155
77
71
79
102
89
61
59
64
73
65
27
27
34
36
45
16
14
18
20
29
11
13
16
16
16
2002
2003
2004
2005
359
362
359
380
195
193
182
219
165
169
177
161
25
35
29
29
15
19
13
16
10
16
16
14
92
85
82
86
44
37
38
48
48
47
44
38
186
188
181
201
107
105
101
120
80
82
80
80
56
55
67
63
28
31
30
35
28
24
36
28
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
153
206
75
107
78
99
15
14
5
8
10
6
33
49
14
24
20
25
74
107
43
58
31
49
31
36
14
16
17
20
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
146
234
84
135
61
99
11
19
6
10
5
9
27
60
14
35
13
25
82
118
52
68
30
50
26
37
12
23
14
15
– 6
– 3
– 10
– 7
– 2
+ 5
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991 1996 –
–
–
+
+
+
40
19
79
37
43
54
–
–
–
+
+
+
22
18
50
13
12
23
–
–
–
+
+
+
19
1
29
24
32
31
– 17
– 8
– 19
+ 8
+ 8
– 5
– 10
– 4
– 9
+ 5
+ 3
– 2
– 8
– 4
– 10
+ 3
+ 5
– 3
+
+
–
+
+
+
1 –
12
+ 6
2
– 5
32
+15
30
+ 9
51
+25
+ 1
+ 7
+ 2
+ 18
+ 22
+ 26
– 18
– 20
– 48
+ 3
+ 7
+ 2
– 10
– 16
– 31
– 5
+ 4
– 2
– 9
– 4
–18
+ 8
+ 4
+ 5
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
+ 47
+139
+163
+163
+172
+
+
+
+
+
16
76
92
96
88
+
+
+
+
+
31
63
71
66
84
+ 14
+ 13
+ 15
+ 10
+ 21
+ 6
+ 3
+ 5
+ 7
+11
+ 8
+ 10
+ 10
+ 3
+ 10
+
+
+
+
+
40
64
71
77
74
+12
+34
+37
+37
+36
+ 28
+ 30
+ 34
+ 40
+ 38
– 7
+ 64
+ 81
+ 69
+ 84
– 1
+38
+51
+47
+46
– 6
+25
–
+30
–
+23
+
+38
–
2002
2003
2004
2005
+153
+151
+223
+185
+ 89
+ 68
+115
+ 93
+ 64
+ 83
+108
+ 93
+ 13
+ 7
+ 10
– 4
+ 5
+ 4
+12
– 2
+
+
–
–
8
2
2
1
+ 93
+126
+140
+142
+56
+61
+67
+69
+ 37
+ 65
+ 73
+ 72
+ 69
+ 31
+ 93
+ 72
+41
+12
+46
+36
+28
+19
+47
+36
– 22
– 13
– 20
– 24
– 13
– 10
– 10
– 10
– 9
– 3
–10
–14
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
+ 80
+142
+ 41
+ 74
+ 39
+ 68
+ 3
+ 7
+ 8
+ 4
– 5
+ 3
+ 53
+ 88
+24
+42
+ 28
+ 45
+ 38
+ 55
+13
+32
+24
+23
– 13
– 7
– 5
– 5
– 8
– 2
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
+ 93
+ 92
+ 43
+ 50
+ 51
+ 42
+ 3
– 6
+ 1
– 4
+ 1
– 3
+ 56
+ 86
+24
+45
+ 32
+ 41
+ 41
+ 30
+18
+17
+23
+13
– 7
– 17
– 1
– 9
– 6
– 8
–
–
–
–
–
+
–
–
1
4
–
7
+
8
–
2
–
3
5
–
1
–
4
+
2
+
4
–
4
6
2
3
1
–
1
6
6
1
2
3
1
2
+
–
–
+
–
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and other sources – see Notes to Tables. Prior to 1991 they exclude certain categories of migration such as
migrants between the UK and the Irish Republic, persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in this
table include all categories of migrants and therefore represent Total International Migration. For adjustments required to pre-1991 figures, see Notes to Tables.
53
National Statistics
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 7.2
Autumn 2007
International migration: country of last or next residence
United Kingdom Numbers (thousands)
Commonwealth countries Other foreign countries
Year and quarter
All
European
Australia,
South
India,
Pakistan2
Caribbean
Other3
USA
Middle
Other4,5
countries
Union1
New
Africa
Bangladesh,
East4
Zealand,
Sri Lanka2
Canada
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991 1996 200
191
153
250
328
318
21
33
25
72
95
98
52
40
20
30
44
37
8
9
3
18
8
11
24
15
18
16
17
15
:
12
9
10
16
11
5
4
3
5
4
4
36
32
19
25
42
33
22
16
17
26
24
32
:
7
11
15
11
13
31
23
27
34
69
63
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 326
390
454
483
480
100
109
99
96
86
40
64
63
63
77
13
20
29
23
22
21
17
25
34
32
9
10
12
16
18
4
6
6
6
3
32
31
37
48
47
23
37
29
24
24
15
13
15
30
30
67
84
138
144
140
2002
2003
2004
2005
513
513
582
565
89
101
139
180
61
68
63
64
27
28
37
29
36
45
60
64
10
13
29
22
5
4
6
2
52
49
60
42
28
28
28
25
32
27
26
19
172
150
135
117
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
233
349
53
85
34
29
19
18
26
34
14
15
3
3
23
37
8
19
9
18
45
90
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
239
326
75
105
33
31
19
10
28
36
7
14
1
1
19
23
9
17
7
12
42
76
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991 1996 240
210
232
213
285
264
31
39
33
62
95
94
99
63
78
50
61
58
21
21
23
2
7
5
8
4
2
4
6
5
:
2
1
2
4
1
8
3
3
2
2
1
23
17
20
13
21
23
17
21
25
34
35
26
:
6
23
16
14
8
34
33
23
28
40
42
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 279
251
291
321
308
92
85
103
103
94
57
54
73
79
80
8
6
7
7
8
6
5
4
5
8
3
2
1
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
23
14
14
15
13
28
27
33
33
28
13
9
10
15
9
46
48
44
58
63
2002
2003
2004
2005
359
362
359
380
125
122
121
134
84
90
95
95
10
14
10
14
7
7
6
10
4
4
4
7
2
1
3
3
16
15
20
12
37
27
27
27
12
7
12
12
62
75
61
65
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
153
206
58
63
40
55
3
6
3
4
2
1
1
3
6
13
13
14
5
7
21
40
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
146
234
53
81
42
54
6
8
4
6
3
5
1
2
5
7
7
20
4
8
20
45
46
23
58
21
18
21
– 13
– 12
– 20
+ 16
+ 1
+ 6
+ 16
:
– 3
+ 12
+ 10 –
+ 15
+ 8
+ 1
+ 12
+ 8
+ 3
+ 11
+ 12
+ 2
+ 10
+ 10
+ 3
+ 14
+ 15
– 2
+ 12
+ 20
+ 10
+ 6 :
– 4
+ 1
– 8
– 12
– 8 –
– 11
– 4
+ 6
+ 5
– 3
– 10
+ 5
+ 6
+ 29
+ 21
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991 1996 –
–
–
+
+
+
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 + 47
+139
+163
+163
+172
+ 9
+24
– 4
– 8
– 7
– 17
+ 10
– 10
– 15
– 2
+ 5
+ 14
+ 22
+ 15
+ 13
+
+
+
+
+
15
12
22
29
24
+ 6
+ 8
+ 11
+ 13
+ 14
+ 1
+ 4
+ 3
+ 4
+ 1
+ 9
+ 17
+ 23
+ 33
+ 34
– 5
+10
– 4
– 9
– 4
+ 2
+ 4
+ 5
+ 15
+ 20
+ 21
+ 36
+ 94
+ 86
+ 77
2002
2003
2004
2005
+153
+151
+223
+185
–36
–21
+17
+46
–
–
–
–
23
22
32
31
+ 17
+ 14
+ 27
+ 15
+ 29
+ 38
+ 54
+ 54
+ 7
+ 9
+ 25
+ 14
+ 3
+ 3
+ 2
– 1
+ 36
– 10
+ 34
+ 1
+ 40 –
+ 30
– 1
+ 20
+ 20
+ 14
+ 7
+110
+ 75
+ 74
+ 53
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
+ 80
+142
– 5
+22
– 7
– 26
+ 16
+ 12
+ 23
+ 30
+ 12
+ 14
+ 2
+ 0
+ 16
+ 24
– 5
+ 5
+ 4
+ 11
+ 24
+ 51
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
+ 93
+ 92
+21
+24
– 9
– 22
+ 13
+ 2
+ 24
+ 31
+ 5 –
+ 10 –
+ 14
+ 16
+ 2
– 3
+ 3
+ 4
+ 22
+ 31
40
–10
19
– 6
79
– 8
37
+ 9
43 –
54
+ 5
–
–
–
–
–
–
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and other sources – see Notes to Tables. Prior to 1991 they exclude certain categories of migration such as
migrants between the UK and the Irish Republic, persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in this
table include all categories of migrants and therefore represent Total International Migration. For adjustments required to pre-1991 figures, see Notes to Tables.
1 For 1971 the European Union figures are for the original six countries only. From 1976 up to and including 2003, estimates are shown for the EU15 (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, the Irish Republic, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden). From 2004, the estimates are for the EU25 (EU15 plus the 10 countries of Cyprus,
the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia). These countries are included in the definition for the whole of 2004, whether migration occurred
before or after 1 May.
2 For 1971 Pakistan is included with India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
3 From 2004, the Other Commonwealth excludes Malta and Cyprus.
4 For 1971 Middle East is included in the 'Other' category of 'Other foreign' countries.
5 From 2004, Other foreign excludes the eight central and eastern European member states that joined the EU in May 2004.
National Statistics
54
P o p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 7.3
Autumn 2007
International migration: citizenship
United Kingdom Numbers (thousands)
Citizenship (numbers)
British citizens as
percentage of all
Year and quarter
All countries
British
Non-British
European Commonwealth
Other
citizens
1
3
Union foreign All
Old
New2
Inflow
1971
200
92
108
..
53
17
36
54
46
1976
191
87
104
19
57
17
40
28
45
1981
153
60
93
12
43
12
31
38
39
1986
250
120
130
36
50
19
31
44
48
1991 328
109
219
53
85
26
59
82
33
1996 318
94
224
72
78
29
49
73
29
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 326
390
454
483
480
89
103
116
104
106
237
287
337
379
373
72
82
67
63
60
90
105
121
148
151
31
54
54
57
67
59
51
66
91
84
76
100
150
168
162
27
26
26
22
22
2002
2003
2004
2005
513
513
582
565
95
106
88
91
418
407
494
474
63
64
117
145
159
166
219
189
66
63
76
68
93
103
143
121
197
177
158
140
18
21
15
16
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
233
349
40
48
194
300
43
74
100
120
40
36
59
84
52
106
17
14
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
239
326
39
52
200
274
60
85
89
100
39
29
50
71
51
89
16
16
Outflow
1971
240
171
69
1976
210
137
73
1981
232
164
68
1986
213
132
81
1991 285
154
131
1996 264
156
108
..
18
16
13
53
44
29
30
29
29
35
32
13
16
14
19
18
17
16
13
15
10
17
14
40
25
24
40
43
32
71
65
71
62
54
59
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 279
251
291
321
308
149
126
139
161
159
131
126
152
160
149
53
49
59
57
49
40
33
41
47
51
20
20
29
32
32
20
13
12
15
19
38
44
52
55
49
53
50
48
50
52
2002
2003
2004
2005
359
362
359
380
186
190
207
198
174
171
152
181
52
50
43
56
58
59
55
64
42
42
35
39
16
17
20
24
64
62
54
62
52
53
58
52
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
153
206
90
117
63
89
21
22
19
36
13
22
6
14
23
31
59
57
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
146
234
83
116
63
118
21
35
24
39
15
25
10
14
18
44
57
49
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991 1996 – 40
– 19
– 79
+ 37
+ 43
+ 54
– 79
– 50
–104
– 11
– 45
– 62
+ 39 ..
+ 31
+ 1
+ 24
– 4
+ 49
+ 22
+ 89
+ 0
+116
+ 28
+
+
+
+
+
+
24
27
14
21
50
47
+ 4
+ 1
– 2
+ 0
+ 7
+12
+
+
+
+
+
+
20
27
16
21
42
35
+
+
+
+
+
+
14
3
15
5
39
41
:
:
:
:
:
:
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 + 47
+139
+163
+163
+172
– 60
– 23
– 23
– 57
– 53
+107
+162
+186
+220
+225
+ 18
+ 33
+ 8
+ 6
+ 11
+ 50
+ 72
+ 80
+101
+101
+11
+34
+26
+25
+35
+
+
+
+
+
39
38
54
76
65
+ 38
+ 57
+ 98
+113
+113
:
:
:
:
:
2002
2003
2004
2005
+153
+151
+223
+185
– 91
– 85
–119
–107
+245
+236
+342
+292
+ 11
+ 14
+ 74
+ 89
+101
+107
+164
+125
+23
+21
+41
+29
+ 77
+ 86
+123
+ 97
+133
+115
+104
+ 78
:
:
:
:
2004 Jan-June
July-Dec
+ 80
+142
– 51
– 68
+131
+211
+ 22
+ 52
+ 81
+ 83
+27
+14
+ 53
+ 70
+ 29
+ 75
:
:
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
+ 93
+ 92
– 44
– 63
+137
+155
+ 39
+ 50
+ 65
+ 60
+25
+ 4
+ 40
+ 56
+ 33
+ 45
:
:
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and other sources – see Notes to Tables. Prior to 1991 they exclude certain categories of migration such as
migrants between the UK and the Irish Republic, persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in this
table include all categories of migrants and therefore represent Total International Migration. For adjustments required to pre-1991 figures, see Notes to Tables.
1 For 1971 citizens of the European Union are included in 'Other foreign' category. From 1976 up to and including 2003, estimates are shown for the EU15 (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, the Irish Republic, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden). From 2004, the estimates are for the EU25 (EU15 plus the 10 countries of Cyprus,
the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia). These countries are included in the definition for the whole of 2004, whether migration occurred
before or after 1 May.
2 From 2004, the New Commonwealth excludes Malta and Cyprus.
3 For 2004 onwards, Other foreign excludes the eight central and eastern European member states that joined the EU in May 2004.
55
National Statistics
Autumn 2007
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 8.1
Internal migration
Recorded movements between constituent countries of the United Kingdom and Government Office Regions of England Numbers (thousands)
Government Office Regions of England
Year and quarter
England
Wales
Scotland Northern North East
North
Yorkshire
East
West
East
London
South
Ireland
West and The Midlands Midlands
East
Humber
South
West
Inflow
1976
1981
1986
1991
105.4
93.7
115.6
95.8
52.0
44.6
55.2
51.5
50.4
45.4
43.9
55.8
9.7
6.8
8.8
12.5
39.2
31.1
36.5
40.2
93.0
79.3
90.0
96.1
78.2
68.3
78.6
85.0
84.0
76.6
101.9
89.6
75.7
66.9
87.1
82.7
146.3
121.4
144.6
122.1
..
155.0
182.8
148.8
215.4
201.8
243.3
197.6
123.8
108.3
148.8
120.7
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
103.4
108.1
111.1
110.9
111.2
52.0
54.7
55.3
58.5
56.3
51.7
48.5
47.0
55.3
52.6
10.9
14.1
11.4
10.2
11.7
37.1
37.9
38.6
38.6
39.0
99.7
103.7
105.0
106.5
104.0
87.6
90.8
90.8
92.6
93.0
96.4
101.3
102.1
107.7
107.9
84.8
90.0
90.6
92.7
93.4
130.6
134.6
139.5
145.0
142.8
160.4
170.7
168.0
167.3
173.9
215.5
218.6
228.0
229.6
226.1
127.7
131.6
138.5
144.0
138.7
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
111.7
108.6
104.2
100.9
97.5
96.6
98.3
58.0
59.5
60.0
64.0
62.7
60.1
55.9
50.9
48.8
56.5
52.7
59.8
56.8
59.2
11.6
11.2
12.7
10.8
12.1
12.5
12.2
38.7
39.2
40.4
42.7
41.9
40.7
39.9
105.4
106.2
106.3
108.9
109.3
104.9
102.1
95.2
96.5
96.5
99.7
99.4
98.1
94.1
111.3
112.1
115.5
119.5
114.8
111.8
105.8
93.7
94.3
95.3
98.6
95.0
95.1
94.0
148.4
145.8
147.2
150.0
144.6
145.5
138.7
162.9
163.0
159.7
154.8
148.3
155.1
161.2
228.6
224.2
223.8
228.6
220.5
223.4
216.5
143.2
140.1
143.3
145.9
141.6
138.8
132.3
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
21.0
22.0
32.7
22.6
11.3
11.7
20.6
12.3
12.7
15.4
15.0
16.0
3.4
3.3
2.9
2.5
7.6
7.8
15.6
8.9
21.5
21.8
36.4
22.5
18.4
18.4
37.6
19.7
20.5
22.0
39.4
24.0
19.4
20.9
31.9
21.8
29.4
31.8
44.6
32.9
36.2
36.5
50.0
38.5
43.9
47.5
74.6
50.4
26.1
28.8
46.3
31.2
2006 March
June
Sept
19.8
21.5
31.6
11.0
11.9
20.9
10.5
11.8
17.0
3.3
3.5
3.1
7.3
7.9
15.5
20.2
21.8
35.3
17.5
18.1
37.2
20.6
22.3
39.7
19.3
20.2
31.2
30.1
33.0
46.3
36.9
37.6
52.9
45.1
49.4
77.3
26.8
29.8
46.3
Outflow
1976
1981
1986
1991
104.8
91.5
100.7
112.2
43.9
41.8
49.8
47.4
54.5
47.7
57.9
46.7
14.2
9.4
15.1
9.3
40.2
39.1
45.6
40.9
102.9
98.6
115.8
104.9
78.5
73.3
90.5
85.4
77.2
71.7
84.8
81.4
89.5
78.4
94.8
87.9
115.6
104.4
128.1
113.0
..
187.0
232.4
202.1
181.7
166.0
204.1
184.6
94.7
88.0
102.5
98.9
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
106.3
107.9
105.3
114.8
111.3
50.4
53.1
53.3
54.4
54.2
49.0
52.0
54.5
53.2
53.8
12.2
12.3
11.8
12.6
12.4
43.5
45.6
44.5
44.5
43.7
109.8
115.8
114.0
117.5
115.8
91.9
97.6
98.2
100.0
97.9
86.2
91.9
94.3
97.4
97.3
95.1
98.1
101.0
103.7
100.9
115.5
118.7
121.1
124.8
125.0
206.3
207.6
213.4
221.7
217.9
190.4
195.8
198.9
205.7
209.4
103.9
108.0
109.8
112.4
110.9
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
111.6
110.8
120.4
119.3
126.0
121.5
118.2
53.3
52.1
51.5
49.7
48.1
49.2
50.0
54.9
53.3
50.4
48.4
46.4
45.1
44.7
12.5
11.9
11.1
11.1
11.7
10.2
12.7
43.8
42.9
42.6
41.3
40.1
39.4
39.3
114.9
111.3
110.4
107.5
104.1
104.1
103.1
97.0
95.7
95.6
94.6
93.0
92.2
92.6
96.4
94.9
95.6
96.9
96.0
97.0
96.7
101.8
101.5
101.6
102.7
101.7
100.7
98.6
125.8
124.6
127.1
130.1
127.4
128.3
123.7
228.3
231.5
244.2
262.5
262.6
260.2
242.8
208.7
210.5
216.4
220.2
211.1
208.1
201.0
110.7
110.7
110.7
111.0
108.0
108.4
106.9
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
25.4
28.0
36.0
28.9
10.3
11.4
16.7
11.5
10.0
10.4
13.9
10.5
2.8
2.7
4.7
2.6
8.2
9.0
13.4
8.8
20.8
23.2
35.4
23.7
18.4
21.8
31.4
21.0
19.5
22.0
33.1
22.1
19.6
21.5
35.2
22.3
25.4
25.6
44.1
28.5
52.7
52.6
79.0
58.6
41.5
43.0
70.2
46.3
21.3
22.7
38.1
24.8
2006 March
June
Sept
23.0
25.1
38.3
9.8
11.2
16.6
9.7
10.3
13.5
2.1
2.1
4.3
7.8
8.8
13.8
20.8
23.1
36.2
18.5
21.6
32.5
19.6
22.5
34.0
20.3
22.1
36.0
25.5
26.3
46.0
52.7
53.4
80.8
40.6
43.1
70.6
21.4
22.8
38.6
Balance
1976
1981
1986
1991
+ 0.6
+ 2.1
+14.9
–16.4
+8.1
+2.7
+5.4
+4.0
– 4.1
– 2.3
–14.1
+ 9.2
–4.5
–2.5
–6.3
+3.2
–1.0
–8.0
–9.1
–0.7
–9.8
–19.3
–25.8
–8.8
– 0.3
– 5.0
–11.9
– 0.4
+ 6.8
+ 4.9
+17.1
+ 8.1
–13.8
–11.6
– 7.8
– 5.2
+30.7
..
+17.0
–32.0
+16.5
–49.6
+ 9.1
–53.3
+33.7
+35.8
+39.2
+13.0
+29.1
+20.3
+46.4
+21.8
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
– 2.9
+ 0.2
+ 5.8
– 3.8
– 0.1
+1.5
+1.6
+2.0
+4.1
+2.1
+
–
–
+
–
2.6
3.5
7.5
2.2
1.2
–1.2
+1.8
–0.4
–2.4
–0.8
–6.4
–7.7
–5.9
–5.9
–4.8
–10.1
–12.1
–9.0
–11.0
–11.8
– 4.4
– 6.8
– 7.4
– 7.3
– 4.9
+10.2
+ 9.4
+ 7.8
+10.3
+10.6
–10.3
– 8.1
–10.4
–11.1
– 7.4
+15.1
+15.9
+18.3
+20.3
+17.7
–45.9
–36.9
–45.4
–54.5
–44.0
+25.1
+22.7
+29.1
+23.8
+16.7
+23.8
+23.6
+28.7
+31.6
+27.8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
+ 0.1
– 2.2
–16.3
–18.4
–28.5
–25.0
–19.9
+4.7
– 4.0
+7.4
– 4.5
+8.5
+ 6.1
+14.3
+ 4.3
+14.6+13.4
+10.9
+11.7
+5.9
+14.5
–0.8
–0.7
+1.6
–0.3
+0.4
+2.3
–0.5
–5.1
–3.7
–2.3
+1.4
+1.8
+1.3
+0.6
–9.5
–5.1
–4.1
+1.4
+5.2
+0.8
–1.0
– 1.8
+ 0.8
+ 0.9
+ 5.0
+ 6.4
+ 5.9
+ 1.5
+14.9
+17.2
+19.9
+22.6
+18.7
+14.8
+ 9.2
– 8.1
– 7.2
– 6.3
– 4.1
– 6.7
– 5.6
– 4.6
+22.6
+21.2
+20.1
+19.9
+17.2
+17.2
+15.1
–65.4
–68.6
–84.5
–107.8
–114.3
–105.1
–81.5
+19.8
+13.8
+ 7.4
+ 8.4
+ 9.4
+15.3
+15.5
+32.6
+29.3
+32.6
+34.8
+33.6
+30.5
+25.4
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
– 4.4
– 5.9
– 3.4
– 6.2
+1.0
+0.3
+3.9
+0.8
+
+
+
+
2.8
5.0
1.2
5.6
+0.7
+0.7
–1.7
–0.1
–0.6
–1.2
+2.3
+0.1
+0.6
–1.5
+1.0
–1.1
– 0.0
– 3.5
+ 6.2
– 1.2
+ 1.0
– 0.0
+ 6.3
+ 1.9
– 0.1
– 0.6
– 3.3
– 0.6
+ 4.0
+ 6.2
+ 0.5
+ 4.4
–16.5
–16.1
–29.0
–20.1
+
+
+
+
2.4
4.5
4.5
4.1
+ 4.8
+ 6.1
+ 8.2
+ 6.4
2006 March
June
Sept
– 3.2
– 3.6
– 6.7
+1.2
+0.7
+4.4
+ 0.8
+ 1.4
+ 3.5
+1.2
+1.5
–1.2
–0.4
–0.9
+1.8
–0.5
–1.4
–0.9
– 0.9
– 3.5
+ 4.7
+ 0.9
– 0.2
+ 5.7
– 1.0
– 1.9
– 4.8
+ 4.6
+ 6.6
+ 0.3
–15.8
–15.8
–28.0
+ 4.5
+ 6.4
+ 6.7
+ 5.5
+ 6.9
+ 7.7
Note: Figures are derived from re-registrations recorded at the National Health Service Central Register.
See Notes to tables for effects of computerisation of National Health Service Central Register at Southport on time series data.
National Statistics
56
Population Trends 129
Table 9.1
Autumn 2007
First marriages1: age and sex
England and Wales Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
All ages
Persons marrying per 1,000 single population at ages
Year and quarter
Number
Rate2
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
45 and over
Per cent
aged
under 20
Mean
age3 (years)
Median
age3
(years)
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
308.8
339.1
343.6
274.4
259.1
74.9
78.9
82.3
62.8
51.7
16.6
22.1
26.1
18.5
11.1
159.1
168.6
167.7
123.7
94.1
182.8
185.4
167.3
132.5
120.8
91.9
91.1
84.6
78.7
70.3
39.8
36.4
33.8
32.0
31.1
9.3
8.6
8.0
7.1
5.4
6.9
9.9
10.1
9.8
7.2
25.6
24.9
24.6
25.1
25.4
24.0
23.4
23.4
23.7
24.1
19864
1991
253.0
222.8
45.0
37.8
6.0
3.4
64.4
43.3
105.1
81.0
73.9
66.5
30.9
29.9
4.8
4.8
3.8
2.1
26.3
27.5
25.1
26.5
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
206.1
198.2
193.3
188.3
186.3
34.3
32.4
31.1
29.7
28.9
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.7
31.7
28.3
25.2
22.8
21.0
73.3
68.2
64.5
61.1
59.4
61.1
59.9
59.4
58.0
57.8
30.2
30.2
30.7
30.6
30.2
5.1
5.0
5.2
5.2
5.2
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
28.5
28.9
29.3
29.6
29.8
27.5
27.9
28.3
28.6
28.9
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005P
184.3
186.1
175.7
179.1
189.5
192.0
172.0
28.0
27.7
25.5
25.3
26.1
25.7
22.2
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.2
0.9
18.9
18.2
16.2
16.4
16.3
15.9
12.3
56.9
54.3
50.4
48.9
49.8
48.4
41.8
57.7
58.2
54.5
55.0
57.6
57.6
51.1
30.4
32.0
29.6
31.1
32.7
33.3
29.8
5.3
5.7
5.3
5.9
6.9
7.2
6.5
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
30.1
30.5
30.6
30.9
31.2
31.4
31.7
29.2
29.6
29.7
30.1
30.3
30.4
30.7
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
20.7
49.7
77.8
31.0
11.9
28.3
43.8
17.4
1.1
1.3
1.8
1.1
8.8
17.4
27.9
11.3
21.3
54.9
88.3
30.5
24.1
61.7
95.5
37.9
15.1
34.9
50.8
23.3
3.5
6.5
8.0
5.3
1.7
0.9
0.8
1.3
31.0
31.0
30.7
31.4
30.0
30.1
29.9
30.4
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
22.3
52.3
82.1
32.8
12.5
28.9
44.8
17.9
1.1
1.4
1.7
1.1
8.8
17.5
27.5
11.1
21.8
55.5
89.8
31.5
25.7
64.1
100.7
39.2
16.7
36.4
52.9
24.6
4.3
7.5
9.8
6.0
1.7
0.9
0.7
1.2
31.4
31.2
31.0
31.6
30.4
30.3
30.1
30.7
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
23.5
52.4
83.0
33.1
12.6
28.2
44.2
17.7
1.0
1.1
1.6
1.1
9.2
16.8
26.3
11.0
22.3
52.8
87.6
30.9
26.3
63.8
100.7
39.2
16.7
37.2
54.5
24.5
4.1
8.1
10.5
5.9
1.6
0.8
0.7
1.2
31.4
31.5
31.2
31.7
30.3
30.6
30.3
30.7
2005 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
19.8
47.0
76.9
28.3
10.5
24.5
39.7
14.6
0.8
0.8
1.2
0.7
7.0
13.1
21.3
7.8
18.1
45.7
78.6
25.2
22.0
57.0
92.6
33.6
14.5
33.2
50.4
21.5
3.7
7.6
9.7
5.2
1.4
0.6
0.5
0.8
31.6
31.8
31.4
32.2
30.6
30.8
30.5
31.1
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
312.3
342.7
347.4
276.5
263.4
83.0
89.3
97.0
76.9
64.0
77.0
82.6
92.9
66.7
41.5
261.1
263.7
246.5
185.4
140.8
162.8
153.4
167.0
140.7
120.2
74.6
74.1
75.7
77.6
67.0
29.8
30.2
30.3
31.6
28.7
4.6
4.3
4.8
4.0
2.8
28.7
32.5
31.1
31.1
24.1
23.1
22.5
22.6
22.8
23.1
21.6
21.2
21.4
21.5
21.9
19864
1991
256.8
224.8
55.6
46.7
24.1
14.0
102.4
73.0
108.7
90.6
67.1
62.7
28.6
28.1
2.7
2.8
13.9
7.9
24.1
25.5
23.1
24.6
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
206.3
198.6
192.7
188.5
187.4
41.6
39.3
37.3
35.6
34.7
9.6
9.0
8.0
7.4
7.2
56.4
50.8
45.7
42.5
39.9
84.5
80.5
77.2
74.1
72.6
58.9
57.1
57.2
56.1
56.1
27.7
27.6
27.8
27.2
26.5
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.7
4.7
26.5
26.8
27.2
27.5
27.7
25.7
26.0
26.4
26.7
27.0
1999
2000
2001
2002 2003
2004
2005P
185.3
187.7
177.5
180.7
191.2
194.3
174.9
33.5
33.2
30.6
30.3
31.2
30.8
26.7
6.7
6.5
5.5
5.3
5.3
4.9
3.1
36.7
35.2
31.9
31.0
31.3
30.1
23.9
70.8
68.7
64.3
63.2
64.4
63.5
56.2
56.0
57.2
53.2
54.4
57.3
58.1
52.8
26.5
27.5
25.5
26.8
28.4
28.8
25.8
3.5
3.9
3.7
4.3
5.2
5.6
5.1
4.4
4.2
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.4
2.4
28.0
28.2
28.4
28.7
28.9
29.1
29.5
27.3
27.5
27.7
27.9
28.1
28.3
28.5
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
20.6
50.1
78.8
31.1
14.1
33.8
52.6
20.7
4.0
5.3
7.4
4.7
14.8
33.7
55.5
19.5
26.1
71.3
115.1
39.4
24.1
61.0
92.3
39.5
13.7
30.2
41.4
21.7
2.8
4.7
5.8
4.0
6.0
3.3
3.0
4.8
28.7
28.8
28.5
29.2
27.9
28.0
27.7
28.4
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
22.1
53.0
83.3
32.7
14.7
34.7
54.0
21.2
4.2
5.6
6.9
4.6
15.8
33.8
55.1
20.0
25.5
73.3
118.1
39.8
25.2
63.7
98.4
41.4
15.5
31.3
44.7
21.7
3.6
5.8
6.9
4.4
6.1
3.4
2.7
4.6
29.0
29.0
28.7
29.3
28.0
28.2
28.0
28.6
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
23.2
53.0
84.5
33.6
14.8
33.8
53.3
21.2
4.5
4.8
6.3
4.1
15.8
32.1
53.0
19.2
26.2
70.0
117.1
40.3
25.6
65.0
99.4
42.3
14.8
32.2
45.4
22.7
3.5
6.4
7.5
4.8
6.4
3.0
2.5
4.1
28.9
29.3
28.9
29.6
28.0
28.4
28.1
28.7
2005 MarchP
19.8
12.3
2.9
11.9
22.5
23.5
12.7
3.1
5.0
29.4
28.5
JuneP
48.2
29.7
3.0
26.2
62.4
59.5
29.2
6.2
2.1
29.6
28.6
P
Sept 78.5
47.8
4.2
43.8
106.8
91.9
42.2
7.0
1.8
29.2
28.3
P
Dec 28.4
17.3
2.4
14.0
33.9
36.3
19.5
4.0
2.9
30.0
29.1
1 Figures for all marriages can be found in Table 2.1.
2 Per 1,000 single persons aged 16 and over.
3 The mean/median ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age or marital status.
4 Marriage rates for 1986 have been calculated using the interim revised marital status estimates (based on the original mid-2001 population estimates) and are subject to further revision.
p provisional
57
National Statistics
Population Trends 128
Table 9.2
Autumn 2007
Remarriages1: age, sex, and previous marital status
England and Wales Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
Remarriages of divorced persons
Remarriages of widowed
persons
Year and quarter
All ages
Persons remarrying per 1,000 divorced population at ages
Per cent
Mean
Median
3
3
aged
age age Number
Rate4
Number
Rate2
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44 45 and over under 35
(years)
(years)
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.8
26.7
42.4
67.2
79.1
162.9
192.2
227.3
178.8
129.5
478.6
737.8
525.2
656.8
240.7
473.6
522.5
509.0
359.7
260.9
351.6
403.1
390.7
266.8
205.8
198.3
244.4
251.3
187.9
141.9
88.6
89.4
124.8
94.0
63.9
33.9
40.8
42.8
46.7
46.1
40.5
39.3
39.8
38.4
38.1
39.2
37.4
37.0
36.0
35.9
19.1
18.7
18.7
16.9
13.8
28.8
28.3
27.5
24.7
19.7
19865
1991
83.4
74.9
91.0
63.0
141.4
81.1
158.9
111.3
141.3
100.6
106.0
72.7
49.9
38.4
38.5
34.3
39.1
40.3
37.7
39.0
11.6
9.0
16.7
12.5
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
76.6
77.0
78.0
76.8
74.0
60.0
58.6
57.9
55.7
52.7
180.6
190.0
166.2
170.9
167.0
131.7
132.1
135.2
132.2
124.7
110.2
111.4
111.2
110.3
104.1
71.5
72.2
73.8
72.9
71.6
36.1
34.9
35.0
33.6
32.0
31.5
30.3
28.2
27.0
24.8
41.1
41.3
41.7
42.0
42.4
39.6
39.8
40.2
40.5
40.8
8.4
7.8
7.7
7.4
6.9
11.5
10.8
10.6
10.3
9.6
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005P
72.6
75.4
67.7
70.5
74.4
75.1
68.1
50.7
51.8
45.7
46.9
46.8
45.7
40.2
125.7
97.9
75.7
66.5
76.6
69.7
33.6
120.7
113.2
96.6
92.8
90.5
87.4
65.1
102.9
103.6
95.8
96.6
92.4
88.4
76.6
70.2
74.4
67.6
70.5
69.4
69.5
61.3
31.2
32.6
28.5
30.3
31.5
31.0
28.3
23.3
20.8
19.7
17.8
16.0
14.5
12.7
42.7
43.2
43.5
44.1
44.6
44.9
45.5
41.2
41.8
42.0
42.6
43.3
43.6
44.3
6.6
6.5
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.0
5.7
9.3
9.1
8.0
8.2
8.6
8.2
7.9
2002
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.3
19.7
25.9
14.6
27.8
52.7
68.2
38.5
49.0
60.8
94.8
61.2
64.0
98.8
130.8
76.8
55.4
106.6
149.4
74.0
39.8
79.1
107.1
55.6
18.7
34.4
41.3
26.4
18.0
17.3
18.6
16.9
44.4
44.2
43.5
44.7
42.9
42.7
42.0
43.3
1.0
1.7
2.0
1.2
5.1
9.2
11.0
7.2
2003
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.7
21.0
27.8
14.9
27.2
53.0
69.3
37.2
59.5
74.9
108.0
63.5
63.9
94.3
132.3
70.9
52.2
105.2
142.6
68.7
37.1
77.4
108.7
53.6
19.6
36.5
43.6
26.3
16.4
15.8
16.5
15.2
45.3
44.8
44.0
45.1
43.9
43.5
42.7
43.8
1.0
1.8
2.0
1.4
5.7
10.0
11.1
7.5
2004
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.5
20.8
28.2
15.5
25.8
51.0
68.3
37.5
67.9
60.2
83.4
61.7
58.3
86.7
126.6
77.8
50.5
94.8
138.7
69.2
37.3
77.1
110.8
55.2
17.9
35.5
44.3
26.4
15.4
13.7
15.0
14.3
45.2
45.1
44.4
45.3
43.7
43.8
43.1
44.0
1.0
1.7
2.0
1.2
5.7
9.7
10.8
6.8
2005
MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
9.5
19.4
26.0
13.5
22.6
45.8
60.9
31.6
38.4
41.5
30.8
25.1
48.7
71.9
90.7
49.4
43.3
88.7
117.3
57.7
32.4
68.2
97.9
47.0
16.4
32.9
41.1 23.0
13.6
12.8
12.5
12.1
45.8
45.6
45.0
46.0
44.6
44.5
43.8
44.6
1.0
1.7
1.9
1.2
5.2
9.3
10.5
6.4
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.0
25.1
39.6
65.1
75.1
97.1
114.7
134.0
122.2
90.7
542.2
567.8
464.4
458.9
257.5
409.6
411.2
359.0
272.3
202.1
250.2
254.8
232.7
188.0
142.9
111.5
135.9
139.8
124.0
95.5
35.6
37.8
49.3
40.9
29.0
46.8
52.4
57.0
59.8
57.9
37.2
36.2
35.7
34.9
35.1
35.9
34.3
33.0
32.4
33.4
16.5
16.8
17.7
17.0
13.5
6.5
6.3
6.3
5.9
4.6
19865
1991
80.0
73.4
68.7
50.3
190.9
111.9
155.9
118.1
111.6
89.7
75.6
55.3
24.4
20.9
51.2
47.4
36.0
37.1
34.7
35.7
11.2
8.6
3.8
2.9
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
76.9
76.9
78.9
77.1
73.3
47.3
45.7
45.6
43.3
40.1
167.3
166.5
183.5
188.5
175.0
121.0
118.8
120.6
119.4
114.5
91.4
91.9
93.6
90.8
87.1
54.4
54.8
56.0
54.6
52.2
20.6
19.8
20.4
19.6
18.4
44.4
42.8
40.8
39.0
37.1
37.9
38.1
38.6
38.9
39.3
36.3
36.6
37.1
37.4
37.9
7.9
7.5
7.3
7.0
6.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005P
72.0
74.1
66.1
69.2
73.1
72.9
65.4
38.4
38.5
33.5
34.3
34.9
33.8
29.5
155.0
137.8
104.6
107.5
117.0
111.7
74.1
107.0
107.5
96.9
101.2
101.0
94.9
75.0
84.8
85.6
79.3
81.7
82.4
81.5
70.3
52.3
54.2
48.5
51.2
52.0
52.2
46.7
17.8
18.4
15.9
16.9
18.3
18.0
16.6
34.7
32.0
30.7
28.2
26.1
24.0
21.1
39.7
40.1
40.4
40.9
41.5
41.9
42.6
38.3
38.9
39.2
39.7
40.3
40.8
41.6
6.2
6.2
5.6
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.3
2.3
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
2002
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.4
19.4
24.9
14.5
20.9
38.6
49.0
28.6
77.7
111.0
139.6
101.1
72.2
108.7
141.4
81.7
49.6
90.7
120.5
65.2
30.1
57.5
75.0
41.7
10.3
19.4
22.9
14.9
29.8
27.6
28.6
27.4
40.8
41.1
40.6
41.3
39.6
39.8
39.5
40.0
0.9
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.3
2.4
2.8
1.8
2003
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.9
20.5
26.6
15.1
21.1
39.2
50.3
28.6
95.5
115.2
138.5
118.4
69.6
104.9
147.1
82.0
50.3
91.9
120.6
66.1
29.7
58.2
78.1
41.6
11.3
21.2
24.9
15.5
27.7
25.3
26.2
26.0
41.6
41.7
41.2
41.7
40.2
40.6
40.1
40.5
0.9
1.7
2.0
1.3
1.4
2.6
2.9
1.9
2004
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.9
20.3
26.7
15.0
20.3
37.9
49.2
27.7
101.4
105.7
135.3
104.1
67.9
100.1
129.5
81.9
52.3
90.3
117.4
65.6
30.1
57.7
78.6
42.1
10.4
20.9
25.7
14.9
27.0
23.3
23.2
24.3
41.4
42.2
41.8
42.0
40.2
41.2
40.8
40.7
0.9
1.7
2.0
1.3
1.4
2.6
3.0
1.9
2005
MarchP
9.5
17.4
75.2
57.4
42.1
26.8
9.5
23.5
42.2
41.2
0.8
1.3
JuneP
18.3
33.1
78.9
78.0
76.5
51.3
19.6
20.2
43.0
42.0
1.5
2.3
P
Sept 24.4
43.8
85.5
107.2
107.3
71.3
23.8
21.1
42.4
41.5
1.9
2.9
DecP
13.4
23.9
59.0
58.6
56.2
37.7
13.7
20.7
42.8
41.6
1.1
1.7
1 Figures for all marriages can be found in Table 2.1.
2 Per 1,000 divorced persons aged 16 and over.
3 The mean/median ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age or marital status.
4 Per 1,000 widowed persons aged 16 and over.
5 Marriage rates for 1986 have been calculated using the interim revised marital status estimates (based on the original mid-2001 population estimates) and are subject to further revision.
p provisional
National Statistics
58
Population Trends 129
Table 9.3
Autumn 2007
Divorces: age and sex
England and Wales Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
Year and
Petitions Decrees made absolute
Divorce decrees per 1,000 married population
quarter
filed
All
1st
2nd or
16 and
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
45 and
divorces
marriage
later
over
over
marriage
Per cent
Mean age
aged
at divorce1
under 35
Median
age at
divorce1
Numbers
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
13.7
18.3
44.2
43.3
46.7
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
23.5
36.4
69.3
115.7
127.6
1.9
2.7
5.2
11.0
18.1
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
1.4
2.6
5.0
13.6
17.7
3.9
6.8
12.5
21.4
27.6
4.1
6.8
11.8
18.9
22.8
3.1
4.5
7.9
14.1
17.0
1.1
1.5
3.1
4.5
4.8
38.3
44.2
44.8
48.6
48.6
..
38.6
39.4
38.0
37.7
..
36.4
36.6
35.4
35.4
19862
1991
1996
49.7
..
..
153.9
158.7
157.1
128.0
129.8
125.8
25.9
29.0
31.3
13.0
13.6
13.9
31.4
26.1
28.1
31.4
32.4
32.6
25.2
28.6
30.2
18.0
20.2
22.2
5.2
5.6
6.4
45.6
42.7
37.5
37.8
38.6
39.8
36.2
37.0
38.1
1997
1998
1999
..
..
..
146.7
145.2
144.6
117.3
116.0
115.1
29.4
29.2
29.4
13.1
13.0
13.0
26.0
25.8
24.1
30.4
30.7
29.7
28.7
28.4
28.4
21.1
21.5
21.9
6.1
6.1
6.3
35.9
34.3
32.1
40.2
40.4
40.9
38.4
38.7
39.2
2000
..
2001
..
2002
..
2003
..
2004 ..
2005P 2006 ..
..
2003 March
June
..
Sept
..
Dec
..
141.1
143.8
147.7
153.5
153.4
141.8
132.6
112.1
114.3
116.9
121.4
121.1
111.7
104.3
29.1
29.5
30.8
32.0
32.3
30.1
28.2
12.7
13.0
13.4
14.0
14.1
13.1
12.3
22.3
20.3
23.1
24.6
25.5
24.2
20.0
27.9
27.9
29.4
30.6
30.4
28.3
26.0
27.4
28.3
29.1
29.8
29.9
27.2
23.9
21.9
22.8
23.7
25.2
25.3
23.5
21.8
6.3
6.5
6.9
7.4
7.7
7.5
7.2
29.9
28.4
26.7
24.7
23.3
21.8
20.6
41.3
41.5
41.9
42.3
42.7
43.1
43.4
39.7
40.0
40.4
40.9
41.4
42.0
42.4
39.4
38.6
37.9
37.6
31.2
30.4
30.0
29.7
8.2
8.1
7.9
7.8
14.6
14.1
13.8
13.6
26.1
23.7
24.7
23.8
33.5
30.3
29.5
29.0
31.4
30.7
28.8
28.5
26.0
25.5
24.8
24.4
7.7
7.4
7.3
7.3
25.3
25.0
24.4
24.3
42.1
42.2
42.3
42.4
40.7
40.9
41.0
41.1
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
39.5
38.1
39.0
36.9
31.2
30.1
30.9
29.0
8.3
7.9
8.1
7.9
14.6
14.1
14.3
13.5
25.4
25.7
25.8
25.2
31.7
29.8
30.7
29.5
31.9
29.3
30.2
28.4
26.5
25.3
25.6
23.9
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.5
23.8
22.9
23.2
23.3
42.5
42.7
42.7
42.7
41.2
41.5
41.5
41.5
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
36.2
36.5
35.6
33.4
28.5
28.7
28.0
26.4
7.7
7.8
7.6
7.0
13.6
13.6
13.1
12.3
26.2
24.9
23.8
22.2
29.2
28.8
28.1
26.9
28.9
27.8
27.5
24.7
24.5
24.2
23.5
22.0
7.6
7.8
7.4
7.0
22.2
21.5
21.9
21.4
43.0
43.2
43.0
43.1
41.8
42.1
41.9
42.1
P
2006 March
JunePP
SeptP Dec ..
..
..
..
34.3
32.9
32.9
32.4
27.0
25.8
26.0
25.4
7.3
7.1
6.9
7.0
12.9
12.2
12.1
11.9
22.5
20.1
19.5
18.0
27.2
25.9
25.4
25.6
25.5
23.7
23.3
23.0
23.1
21.6
21.6
20.9
7.5
7.3
7.1
7.1
20.9
20.6
20.4
20.6
43.3
43.4
43.4
43.5
42.2
42.4
42.3
42.5
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.2
28.3
66.7
101.5
123.5
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
23.4
36.2
69.3
115.9
127.7
2.0
2.8
5.1
10.8
18.0
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
2.4
4.1
7.5
14.5
22.3
4.5
7.6
13.0
20.4
26.7
3.8
6.1
10.5
18.3
20.2
2.7
3.9
6.7
12.6
14.9
0.9
1.2
2.8
4.0
3.9
49.3
54.7
54.4
56.6
58.0
..
35.8
36.8
36.0
35.2
..
33.6
33.6
33.1
33.2
19862
1991
1996
130.7
..
..
153.9
158.7
157.1
128.8
130.9
126.9
25.1
27.8
30.2
12.8
13.4
13.7
30.7
28.7
30.7
28.6
30.7
33.2
22.0
25.0
27.6
15.8
17.3
19.3
4.1
4.5
5.1
55.0
52.7
47.7
35.3
36.0
37.3
33.6
34.3
35.6
1997
1998
1999
..
..
..
146.7
145.2
144.6
118.3
116.8
115.4
28.4
28.5
29.1
12.9
12.9
12.9
28.0
28.5
25.6
31.3
31.4
30.6
26.3
26.6
26.9
18.5
18.9
19.5
4.9
4.9
5.1
45.9
44.3
41.7
37.7
37.9
38.4
36.0
36.3
36.9
2000
2001
2002 2003
2004
2005
2006P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
141.1
143.8
147.7
153.5
153.4
141.8
132.6
112.6
114.6
117.5
121.9
121.8
112.0
104.8
28.5
29.2
30.2
31.6
31.6
29.7
27.7
12.6
12.9
13.3
14.0
14.0
13.0
12.2
24.5
23.9
26.8
28.2
27.9
26.8
22.4
29.0
29.2
30.4
31.6
32.0
28.8
27.3
26.6
27.6
28.3
29.1
28.8
26.2
23.0
19.4
20.5
21.6
23.2
23.6
22.2
20.7
5.2
5.4
5.7
6.1
6.4
6.2
6.1
39.6
37.8
35.9
33.7
31.9
30.0
28.8
38.8
39.1
39.4
39.8
40.2
40.6
40.9
37.3
37.7
38.2
38.7
39.2
39.8
40.1
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
39.4
38.6
37.9
37.6
31.3
30.7
30.0
29.9
8.1
7.9
8.0
7.6
14.5
14.1
13.7
13.5
30.1
28.0
28.0
26.8
33.7
31.5
30.2
31.0
30.9
29.6
28.3
27.6
23.9
23.4
23.1
22.4
6.3
6.1
6.0
6.1
34.4
33.7
33.3
33.3
39.7
39.8
39.8
39.9
38.5
38.7
38.8
38.9
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
39.5
38.1
39.0
36.9
31.4
30.2
30.9
29.0
8.1
7.8
8.1
7.9
14.5
14.0
14.2
13.4
28.8
28.1
27.8
26.8
33.6
31.0
32.2
31.0
30.7
28.6
28.9
27.0
24.5
23.6
23.8
22.4
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.3
32.6
31.5
31.7
31.7
40.0
40.3
40.3
40.3
39.0
39.3
39.3
39.3
2005 March
..
June
..
Sept
..
Dec
36.2
36.5
35.6
33.4
28.6
28.8
28.1
26.5
7.6
7.7
7.5
6.9
13.5
13.5
13.0
12.2
27.4
27.8
27.3
24.6
29.8
28.5
29.0
27.8
27.4
27.4
26.2
23.7
23.1
22.9
22.1
20.8
6.4
6.5
6.2
5.9
30.2
29.8
30.2
29.7
40.6
40.7
40.6
40.6
39.6
39.9
39.7
39.8
2006 March P
June P
Sept P
Dec P
34.3
32.9
32.9
32.4
27.2
25.9
26.1
25.5 7.1
7.0
6.8
6.8
12.8
12.1
12.0
11.8
24.2
21.5
20.9
22.8
28.3
27.1
26.7
27.0
24.5
22.5
22.9
22.0
22.0
20.9
20.3
19.9
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.9
29.0
28.3
28.8
28.9
40.8
40.9
40.9
40.9
40.0
40.1
40.1
40.2
1
2
p
..
..
..
..
The mean/median ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age or marital status.
Divorce rates for 1986 have been calculated using the interim revised marital status estimates (based on the original mid-2001 population estimates) and are subject to further revision.
Rates for 2006 are based on 2005 marital status estimates.
provisional.
Divorce petitions entered by year and quarter 1995–2006
England and Wales Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Numbers (thousands)
March Qtr
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
46.8
45.6
35.6
43.0
41.4
39.3
41.9
44.5
43.7
40.3
39.5
37.6
45.7
45.3
44.0
42.1
41.3
39.5
Dec Qtr
40.5
43.4
40.9
41.0
40.5
41.8
Year
March Qtr
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
Dec Qtr
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
45.4
45.4
46.3
45.5
37.9
36.7
42.6
44.3
42.2
41.1
39.5
34.9
42.9
45.4
43.6
42.1
38.5
36.4
42.0
42.6
41.5
39.1
36.1
34.6
Notes: Data supplied by Her Majesty’s Court Service (14 February 2006) with the introduction of Management Information System Data (from 2001).
The Divorce Reform Act 1969 became operative on 1 January 1971; the Matrimonial and Family Proceedings Act came into effect on 12 October 1984.
Figures include petitions for nullity
59
National Statistics
Population Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
Notes to tables
Time Series
For most tables, years start at 1971 and then
continue at five-year intervals until 1991.
Individual years are shown thereafter.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom comprises England, Wales,
Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Channel
Islands and the Isle of Man are not part of the
United Kingdom.
Population
The estimated and projected resident population
of an area includes all people who usually live
there, whatever their nationality. Members of HM
and US Armed Forces in the United Kingdom are
included on a residential basis wherever possible.
HM Forces stationed outside the United Kingdom
are not included. Students are taken to be resident
at their term-time addresses.
Live births
For England and Wales, figures relate to the
number of births occurring in a period; for
Scotland and Northern Ireland, figures relate to
births registered in a period. By law, births must be
registered within 42 days in England and Wales,
within 21 days in Scotland, and within 42 days in
Northern Ireland. In England and Wales, where a
birth is registered later than the legal time period,
and too late to be included in the count for the year
of occurrence, it will be included in the count for
the following year.
Perinatal mortality
In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth
was changed, from baby born dead after 28
completed weeks of gestation or more, to one
born dead after 24 completed weeks of gestation
or more.
Period expectation of life
The life tables on which these expectations are
based use death rates for the given period to
describe mortality levels for each year. Each
individual year shown is based on a three-year
period, so that for instance 1986 represents
1985–87. More details can be found in at www.gad.
gov.uk/life_tables/interim_life_tables.htm
Deaths
Figures for England and Wales represent the
numbers of deaths registered in each year up
to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in
each year from 1993, though provisional figures
are registrations. Figures for both Scotland and
Northern Ireland represent the number of deaths
registered in each year.
Age-standardised mortality
Directly age-standardised rates make allowances
for changes in the age structure of the population.
The age-standardised rate for a particular condition
is that which would have occurred if the observed
age-specific rates for the condition had applied
in a given standard population. Table 2.2 uses
the European Standard Population. This is a
hypothetical population standard which is the same
for both males and females allowing standardised
rates to be compared for each sex, and between
males and females.
International Migration
The UN recommends the following definition of
an international long-term migrant.
An international long-term migrant is defined as a
person who moves to a country other than that of
his or her usual residence for a period of at least a
year (12 months), so that the country of destination
effectively becomes his or her new country of
usual residence.
Nation a l S t a t i s t i c s
60
Figures in Tables 7.1–7.3 are compiled from
several main sources of migration data:
l
The richest source of information on
international migrants comes from the
International Passenger Survey (IPS), which
is a sample survey of passengers arriving at,
and departing from, the main United Kingdom
air and sea ports and Channel Tunnel. This
survey provides migration estimates based on
respondents’ intended length of stay in the UK
or abroad and excludes most persons seeking
asylum and some dependents of such asylum
seekers.
l
Two adjustments are made to account for
people who do not realise their intended length
of stay on arrival. First, visitor data from the
IPS are used to estimate ‘visitor switchers’:
those people who initially come to or leave the
UK for a short period but subsequently stay
for a year or longer. (For years before 2001,
estimates of non-European Economic Area
(non-EEA) national visitor switcher inflows
are made from the Home Office database of
after-entry applications to remain in the UK).
Second, people who intend to be migrants, but
who in reality stay in the UK or abroad for less
than a year (‘migrant switchers’), are estimated
from IPS migrant data.
l
Home Office data on asylum seekers and their
dependents.
l
Estimates of migration between the UK and
the Irish Republic estimated using information
from the Irish Quarterly National Household
Survey and the National Health Service
Central Register, agreed between the Irish
Central Statistics Office and the ONS.
For years prior to 1991, the figures in Tables
7.1–7.3 are based only on data from the IPS. After
taking into account of those groups of migrants
known not to be covered by the IPS, it is estimated
that the adjustment needed to net migration ranges
from about ten thousand in 1981 to just over
twenty thousand in 1986. From 1991, the figures in
Tables 7.1–7.3 are based on data from all sources
and represent Total International Migration.
Old Commonwealth is defined as Australia,
Canada, New Zealand and South Africa;
New Commonwealth is defined as all other
Commonwealth countries.
Middle East is defined as Bahrain, Iran, Iraq,
Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and
Yemen.
The NHS Central Register (NHSCR) at Southport
was computerised in early 1991, prior to which
a three month time lag was assumed between a
person moving and their re-registration with an
NHS doctor being processed onto the NHSCR.
Since computerisation, estimates of internal
migration are based on the date of acceptance
of the new patient by the HA (not previously
available), and a one month time lag assumed.
Internal Migration
Sources
Figures in Table 8.1 are based on the movement
of NHS doctors’ patients between former Health
Authorities (HAs) in England and Wales, and Area
Health Boards in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Yearly and quarterly figures have been adjusted
to take account of differences in recorded crossborder flows between England and Wales, Scotland
and Northern Ireland.
Prior to reorganisation of health authority
databases from Family Health Service Authorities
(FHSAs) to HAs some database boundaries
were realigned. This included in a few cases
transferring patients between databases to fit the
new boundaries. For the most part, this movement
was done outside the NHSCR system and therefore
had no effect on migration data. However a small
number were transferred within the system. As
migration estimates derived from NHSCR are
the product of an administrative system (when
patients re-register with GPs) this had the effect
of generating small numbers of spurious migrants
where no actual change of address had taken place.
We have been advised of adjustments required to
data by the Department of Health and these have
been made to migration data.
It has been established that NHSCR data underreport the migration of males aged between 16
and 36. Currently, however, there are no suitable
sources of data available to enable adjustments
or revisions to be made to the estimates. Further
research is planned on this topic and new data
sources may become available in the future.
However, for the present time, historical estimates
will not be revised and future estimates will not be
adjusted.
Marriages and divorces
Marriages are tabulated according to date of
solemnisation. Divorces are tabulated according
to date of decree absolute. In Scotland a small
number of late divorces from previous years are
added to the current year. The term ‘divorces’
includes decrees of nullity. The fact that a marriage
or divorce has taken place in England, Wales,
Scotland or Northern Ireland does not mean either
of the parties is resident there.
Civil Partnerships
The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force on
5 December 2005 in the UK, the first day couples
could give notice of their intention to form a
civil partnership. The first day that couples could
normally form a partnership was 19 December
2005 in Northern Ireland, 20 December 2005 in
Scotland and 21 December 2005 in England and
Wales.
Civil partnerships are tabulated according to date
of formation and area of occurrence. The fact that
a civil partnership has taken place in England,
Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland does not
necessarily mean either of the parties is resident
there.
EU Enlargement
The coverage of European countries in Table 1.1
has been updated to reflect the enlargement of
the EU to 25 member countries (EU25) on 1 May
2004. The new member countries are: Cyprus,
Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
The main data source for these countries is the
United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics.
Figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland have
been provided by the General Register Office for
Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and
Research Agency respectively. The International
Passenger Survey (Tables 7.1–7.3) is conducted
by the Surveys and Administrative Sources
Directorate of ONS.
Rounding
All figures are rounded independently; constituent
parts may not add to totals. Generally numbers
and rates per 1,000 population are rounded to one
decimal place (e.g. 123.4); where appropriate, for
small figures (below 10.0), two decimal places are
given (e.g. 7.62). Figures which are provisional
or estimated are given in less detail (e.g. 123 or
7.6 respectively) if their reliability does not justify
giving the standard amount of detail. Where figures
need to be treated with particular caution, an
explanation is given as a footnote.
Latest figures
Figures for the latest quarters and years may be
provisional and will be updated in future issues
when later information becomes available. Where
figures are not yet available, cells are left blank.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
Report:
Divorces in England and
Wales during 2006
This report provides summary statistics of divorces granted in England
and Wales during 2006, and compares them with the figures for previous
years. Full details of divorces in 2006 are expected to be published in
2008 in the annual reference volume Marriage, divorce and adoption
statistics 2006 (Series FM2 no. 34).
In 2006 the provisional divorce rate in England and Wales fell by
7 per cent to 12.2 divorcing people per 1,000 married population in
2006, compared with 13.1 in 2005. The divorce rate was last lower in
1984 (12.0).
The number of divorces in England and Wales fell by 6 per cent in
2006 to 132,562 compared with 141,750 in 2005. This is the third
consecutive year that the number of divorces has fallen and is the
lowest number since 1977 when there were 129,053 divorces. The
number of divorces last peaked in 2003 when there were 153,490.
l
l
l
For the fifth consecutive year both men and women in their late
twenties had the highest divorce rates of all five-year age groups. In
2006, there were 26.0 divorces per 1,000 married men aged 25–29
and 27.3 divorces per 1,000 married women aged 25–29.
Table 1
l
In 2006 divorces fell across all age groups compared with 2005
except for men aged 60 and over: in this age group the number
increased by less than one per cent. The rate increased slightly
to 2.2 men divorcing per thousand married men aged 60 and over
(though this appears the same as 2005 to 1 decimal place).
l
The average (mean) age at divorce increased for both men and
women in 2006. For women it increased from 40.6 years in 2005 to
40.9 in 2006, for men the increase was from 43.1 years in 2005 to
43.4 in 2006.
l
The average (median) duration of marriage at divorce granted in
2006 was 11.6 years, the same as in 2005.
l
One in five men and women divorcing in 2006 had a previous
marriage ending in divorce. This proportion has doubled in 25 years:
in 1981 just over one in ten men and women divorcing had a
previous marriage ending in divorce.
l
Sixty-nine per cent of divorces in 2006 were granted to the wife. For
all divorces, behaviour was the most common fact proven. In 54 per
Divorces: Petitions filed and decree granted, 1981, 1991, 1996, 2000–2006
England and Wales
1981
1991
1996
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Petitions1,2 filed for:
Nullity
1,050
619
702
452
492
443
463
492
436
Divorce (dissolution of marriage)
176,162
179,103
177,970
157,809
172,341
177,223
173,240
167,193
151,654
Decrees granted
Decree of nullity
950
444
415
352
250
197
196
200
167
Decree absolute
144,763
158,301
156,692
140,783
143,568
147,538
153,294
153,199
141,583
of which:
Granted to husband
42,085
43,961
46,712
42,311
44,378
44,694
46,915
47,651
44,583
Granted to wife
102,170
113,947
109,489
98,227
98,992
102,676
106,208
105,381
96,855
Granted to both
508
393
491
245
198
168
171
167
145
1 Source: Her Majesty’s Court Service
2 Introduction of Management Information System Data - see explanatory notes.
3 Figures for petitions for 2006 are not yet available.
61
National Statistics
20063
144
132,418
41,702
90,587
129
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Figure 1
Autumn 2007
Facts proven at divorce as percentage of total
divorces, 1991, 2001 and 2006
Figure 2
England and Wales
England and Wales
50
55
40
2001
35
2006
30
25
20
15
Wife
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
10
5
5
0
Adultery
Behaviour
Desertion
Fact proven
Separation
Other
1 This excludes cases where divorces were granted to both partly and annulments.
Source: FM2 Table 4.20
cent of cases where the divorce was granted to wives, the husband’s
behaviour was the fact proven. In 32 per cent of cases where the
divorce was granted to husbands, the fact proven was the wife’s
behaviour.
Husband
50
1991
Divorces (thousands)
Percentage of total divorces1
45
l
Facts proven at divorce and to whom granted,
2006
Over half (53 per cent) of couples divorcing in 2006 had at least
one child aged under 16, the same as in 2005. There were 125,030
children aged under 16 who were in families where the parents
divorced in 2006. One-fifth (20 per cent) of these children were
under five and 63 per cent were under eleven.
Explanatory notes
Decrees absolute and decrees of nullity
A marriage may be either dissolved, following a petition for divorce and
the granting of a decree absolute, or annulled, following a petition for
nullity and the awarding of a decree of nullity. In this report the term
divorce includes both decrees absolute and decrees of nullity, although,
strictly speaking, it should refer only to dissolutions.
0
Adultery
Behaviour
Desertion
Separation:
2 years
and consent
Fact proven and to whom
Separation:
5 years
Source: FM2 Table 4.21
Median duration of marriage
The average duration of marriage at divorce in this report is represented
by the median. The median is the middle value when the data are
arranged in increasing order.
Children of divorcing couples
Table 4 shows children of divorcing couples. Children of the family
are those as defined by the Matrimonial Causes Act 1973 (Section 52).
As well as children born to the divorcing couple, this includes children
born outside marriage, children of previous marriages, adopted and step
children, provided that they were treated by both partners as children of
the family. Children are analysed by age at petition, not at divorce.
Divorces in England and Wales during 2005
Full details of divorces in 2005 are still to be published in the annual
reference volume Marriage, divorce and adoption statistics 2005 (Series
FM2 no. 33). Publication is planned for spring 2008.
Petitions filed
Divorce rates
All rates given here for 2006 are provisional as they were produced using
the 2005 mid-year marital status estimates. These estimates are the latest
available and were published on 30 November 2006. The 2006 marital
status estimates will be available in November 2007 and will be used
to provide final rates to be published in the annual reference volume
Marriage, divorce and adoption statistics 2006 (Series FM2 no. 34).
Mean ages
The mean ages presented in this report have not been standardised for
age and therefore do not take account of the changing age structure of the
population.
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
62
Petitions for 2006 are not yet available. Information on petitions prior to
2006 were provided by Her Majesty’s Court Service and were produced
using the Management Information System (MIS), a data warehousing
facility drawing directly from court-based information systems.
The facility, implemented in June 2002, enabled the Department of
Constitutional Affairs access to more complete data than was previously
possible including late submitted data for previous years.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 2
Autumn 2007
Divorces1: Previous marital status, 1981, 1991 and 2001–2006
England and Wales
Year of divorce
Females
Males
Total
Single women
Divorced women
Numbers
Percentages
Numbers
Percentages
Numbers
Percentages
Widows
Numbers
Percentages
1981
Total
145,713
100
127,685
88
15,853
11
2,175
2
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
127,564
16,220
1,929
88
11
1
118,750
8,378
557
82
6
0
7,997
7,096
760
6
5
1
817
746
612
1
1
0
1991
Total
158,745
100
130,897
83
26,226
17
1,622
1
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
129,784
27,554
1,407
82
17
1
117,323
13,295
370
74
8
0
12,035
13,487
704
8
9
0
517
772
333
0
1
0
2001
Total
143,818
100
114,631
80
28,056
20
1,131
1
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
114,311
28,450
1,057
80
20
1
100,541
13,790
300
70
10
0
13,382
14,100
574
9
10
0
388
560
183
0
0
0
2002
Total
147,735
100
117,533
80
29,056
20
1,146
1
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
116,913
29,709
1,113
79
20
1
102,774
14,445
314
70
10
0
13,736
14,688
632
9
10
0
403
576
167
0
0
0
2003
Total
153,490
100
121,896
79
30,391
20
1,203
1
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
121,395
31,121
995
79
20
1
106,444
15,193
259
69
10
0
14,533
15,266
592
9
10
0
418
642
143
0
0
0
2004
Total
153,399
100
121,756
79
30,487
20
1,156
1
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
121,142
31,173
1,084
79
20
1
106,220
15,218
318
69
10
0
14,485
15,379
623
9
10
0
437
576
143
0
0
0
2005
Total
141,750
100
112,014
79
28,708
20
1,028
1
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
111,675
29,136
939
79
21
1
97,637
14,100
277
69
10
0
13,641
14,516
551
10
10
0
397
520
111
0
0
0
2006
Total
132,562
100
104,824
79
26,718
20
1,020
1
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
104,330
27,330
902
79
21
1
91,084
13,455
285
69
10
0
12,857
13,356
505
10
10
0
389
519
112
0
0
0
1 Includes both decrees absolute and decrees of nullity.
Note: Single men and single women are those who have never-married.
Percentages may not sum due to rounding.
Source: FM2 Marriage, divorce and adoption statistics, Table 4.16
63
National Statistics
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 3
Autumn 2007
Divorces: Sex and age at divorce, 1981, 1991 and 2001–2006
England and Wales
1981
Husband
1991
Wife
2001
Husband Wife Husband
2002
Wife
Husband
2003
Wife
Husband
2004
Wife
Husband
2005
Wife Husband
20061
Wife
Husband
Wife
Numbers divorcing
All ages
145,713 145,713 158,745158,745143,818 143,818147,735 147,735 153,490 153,490 153,399 153,399141,750 141,750132,562 132,562
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–59
60 and over
Not known
Mean age at divorce (years)
39
8,615
29,114
33,064
24,688
18,187
12,767
13,774
5,440
283
19,812
33,299
31,104
22,459
15,276
9,902
9,805
3,748
50
6,477
27,753
33,532
27,957
25,199
16,896
15,408
5,454
321
14,639
35,582
33,195
25,661
21,979
13,607
10,543
3,199
11
1,607
11,713
27,480
31,322
25,470
18,048
21,585
6,580
97
4,546
18,231
31,489
31,164
23,190
15,501
15,905
3,693
13
1,695
10,916
26,792
31,937
26,989
19,601
22,852
6,940
87
4,721
17,227
30,982
32,282
25,017
16,591
16,915
3,913
13
1,764
10,312
25,890
32,755
29,437
21,062
24,724
7,531
94
4,773
16,539
30,345
33,519
27,610
18,225
18,127
4,256
13
1,782
9,671
24,274
32,059
29,832
22,039
25,549
8,180
93
4,565
15,867
28,368
33,013
28,558
19,195
19,160
4,580
8
1,619
8,610
20,625
28,332
28,480
21,675
24,306
8,086
70
4,146
13,905
24,381
29,864
27,570
18,919
18,215
4,671
7
1,336
7,925
18,087
25,954
26,682
20,879
23,565
8,114
67
3,458
13,182
21,409
27,479
26,128
18,471
17,833
4,522
25
25
19
19
2
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
9
9
13
13
37.7
35.2
38.6
36.0
41.5
39.1
41.9
39.4
42.3
39.8
42.7
40.2
43.1
40.6
43.4
40.9
Rate (divorces per thousand married men/women)
All ages
11.9
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–59
60 and over
2.0
18.5
27.6
22.8
18.6
15.2
11.0
5.8
1.7
Median duration of marriage at divorce (years)
13.5
3.0
24.4
26.7
20.2
16.6
12.9
8.7
4.3
1.4
6.3
26.7
32.4
28.6
23.1
17.7
13.6
7.1
1.6
10.1
12.9
9.9
29.9
30.7
25.0
19.9
15.0
10.9
5.1
1.2
2.0
21.6
27.9
28.3
25.0
20.5
15.3
8.7
1.9
9.8
13.4
6.0
25.5
29.2
27.6
23.0
17.9
12.8
6.5
1.3
10.9
3.0
24.4
29.4
29.1
25.9
21.5
16.7
9.2
2.0
6.7
28.4
30.4
28.3
24.0
19.1
13.8
6.8
1.4
11.1
14.0
3.4
25.7
30.6
29.8
27.1
23.3
17.9
10.0
2.1
14.1
8.0
29.7
31.6
29.1
25.5
20.9
15.0
7.3
1.4
4.5
26.4
30.4
29.9
27.2
23.5
18.7
10.4
2.3
11.3
13.1
8.8
29.2
32.0
28.8
25.7
21.5
15.8
7.8
1.5
11.5
3.9
24.9
28.3
27.2
24.8
22.4
18.2
10.0
2.2
7.9
27.9
28.8
26.2
23.9
20.6
15.4
7.5
1.5
11.6
12.2
3.4
20.5
26.0
23.9
22.7
21.0
17.5
9.7
2.2
7.5
23.3
27.3
23.0
22.0
19.5
15.1
7.3
1.5
11.6
1 2006 rates are provisional as they were produced using the 2005 marital status estimates; the 2006 estimates were not available at the time of compilation of these data.
Source: FM2 Marriage, divorce and adoption statistics, Tables 4.1 and 4.9
Table 4
Divorces1: Couples and children of divorced couples, 1981, 1991, and 2001–2006
England and Wales
Year of
divorce
Total number
of couples
divorced
Number of couples by number of children aged under 16
Total
1
2
3
4
Number of children aged under 16 by age-group
5 or more
Total
0–4
5–10
1981
145,713
86,838
34,576
36,765
11,699
3,018
780
159,403
40,281
67,582
1991
158,745
88,346
35,663
37,388
11,816
2,775
704
160,684
52,738
68,074
2001
143,818
79,277
30,996
33,596
11,076
2,803
806
146,914
34,783
65,522
2002
147,735
80,997
31,941
34,381
11,111
2,750
814
149,335
33,682
66,351
2003
153,490
83,809
33,588
35,355
11,265
2,821
780
153,527
33,049
67,654
2004
153,399
82,017
33,211
34,651
10,833
2,577
745
149,275
30,868
65,273
2005
141,750
75,340
31,006
31,548
9,782
2,345
659
136,332
27,419
59,021
2006
132,562
69,895
29,513
29,069
8,642
2,077
594
125,030
25,334
53,640
1 Includes both decrees absolute and decrees of nullity.
Note: Children are those treated as children of the family, and can include children born outside marriage, children of previous marriages, adopted and step children.
Ages are those at petition to divorce.
Source: FM2 Marriage, divorce and adoption statistics, Table 4.11
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
64
11–15
51,540
39,872
46,609
49,302
52,824
53,134
49,892
46,056
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 5
Autumn 2007
Divorces granted to a sole party: Party to whom granted and fact proven at divorce, 1981, 1991 and 2001 to 2006
England and Wales
Fact proven
Fact proven
Separation
Separation
Year
Party to
(2 years Separation
(2 years
2
of
whom
Total
Adultery Behaviour Desertion
and
(5 years) Others Total
Adultery Behaviour Desertion
and
Separation Others2
1
divorce granted consent)
consent)
(5 years)
Numbers
1981
Husband 42,073 18,262
4,343
873
13,399
5,072
Wife 102,148 25,625
44,482
2,343
23,348
5,888
1991
Husband 43,959 18,353
9,937
348
11,006
4,209
Wife 113,946 26,380
63,329
734
18,407
4,821
2001
Husband 44,378 12,073
12,786
277
13,834
5,402
Wife 98,992 20,766
51,982
412
19,869
5,953
2002
Husband 44,694 11,849
13,150
262
14,037
5,391
Wife 102,676 20,980
53,330
419
21,439
6,505
2003
Husband 46,915 12,172
13,978
267
14,587
5,903
Wife 106,208 21,159
54,966
398
22,344
7,336
2004
Husband 47,651 11,800
14,376
230
15,014
6,228
Wife 105,381 20,235
54,483
424
22,529
7,705
2005
Husband 44,583 10,077
13,958
234
14,149
6,126
Wife 96,855 17,915
51,211
359
20,239
7,070
2006
Husband 41,702
8,828
13,452
210
13,308
5,844
Wife 90,587 16,108
48,782
289
18,486
6,784
1 Includes cases where the age of husband or wife was not stated. 2 Cases which have a combination of facts proven.
Note: This table excludes divorces which were granted to both parties jointly and annulments.
Percentages may not sum due to rounding.
Percentages by fact proven
124
462
100
100
43
25
10
44
2
2
32
23
12
6
0
0
106
275
100
100
42
23
23
56
1
1
25
16
10
4
0
0
6
10
100
100
27
21
29
53
1
0
31
20
12
6
0
0
5
3
100
100
27
20
29
52
1
0
31
21
12
6
0
0
8
5
100
100
26
20
30
52
1
0
31
21
13
7
0
0
3
5
100
100
25
19
30
52
0
0
32
21
13
7
0
0
39
61
100
100
23
18
31
53
1
0
32
21
14
7
0
0
60
138
100
100
21
18
32
54
1
0
32
20
14
7
0
0
Source: FM2 Marriage, divorce and adoption statistics, Table 4.21
65
National Statistics
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
Report:
Internal migration
estimates for local and
unitary authorities in
England and Wales, health
authorities in England and
former Health Authorities
in Wales, year to mid-2006
This report presents estimates of internal migration based on patient
register data and patient re-registration recorded in the National Health
Service Central Register (NHSCR) within the UK for England and
Wales. Estimates are provided for moves to and from local and unitary
authorities (LA/UAs) in England and Wales, strategic health authorities1
in England and former health authorities in Wales from and to the rest
of the UK. Table 1 shows migration flows by gender for all local and
unitary authorities in England and Wales, grouped by Government
Office Region (GOR) within England, for mid-2005 to mid-2006. Table
2 shows migration flows by gender for all strategic health authorities in
England and former health authorities in Wales, grouped by GOR within
England, for mid-2005 to mid-2006. Summary tables from mid-1997 to
mid-1998 onwards are available on the National Statistics website: http://
www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/Product.asp?vlnk=7070.
The difference between inflow and outflow is referred to as net flow.
Net inflow refers to instances where inflow is greater than outflow; and
net outflow where outflow is greater than inflow. Care should be taken
when interpreting net flow estimates. Areas with the largest net flows are
not necessarily those with the highest inflows or outflows. Conversely a
small net flow figure may mask large migration flows.
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
66
Net flows are also expressed as a percentage of each area’s mid-2005
population estimate. This contextualizes the net migration effect on the
mid-year population estimate for each area.
Key Observations
Overall, internal migration within the UK in the year to mid-2006
was similar to that seen in mid-2005. Inflows and outflows each
increased by approximately one per cent between the two years for
moves between local and unitary authorities and between health
authorities and by 0.1 percent for GORs. This compares with a
decline of four per cent between mid-2004 and mid-2005
l
As in the previous five years, the South West region experienced the
largest net gain in internal migrants. It also recorded the largest net
effect on the population for all GORs with net migrants representing
0.53 per cent of the mid-2005 population estimates for the South
West. In the year to mid-2006, just under 27,000 more people
moved into the South West GOR than moved from it. This was
approximately 1.4 times higher than the net inflow to the South East,
which had the next largest net gain of just over 19,000 people
l
The London GOR recorded a net outflow of just under 81,000 people
between mid-2005 and mid-2006, continuing the trend of net outflow
l
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
At the local and unitary authority level within England and Wales,
the top ten largest net outflows were all recorded by London
boroughs with the exception of Birmingham, ranked second, and
Luton, ranked ninth. Of the 32 areas that recorded a net outflow
of 1,500 or more, 22 were London boroughs. Of these, 16 also had
proportional net outflows equivalent to at least one per cent of their
mid-2005 population estimate. Newham recorded the largest absolute
net outflow of 9,500 and also the largest net outflow as a proportion
of its mid-2005 population estimate at 3.9 per cent
l
The highest levels of total migration activity (gross flows in and
out) were observed in London boroughs and other metropolitan
areas. The five local authorities with the largest gross flows in the
year to mid-2006, in descending order, were Birmingham, Leeds,
Manchester, Wandsworth and Lambeth. These five areas also had the
highest levels of migration activity in the previous five mid-year to
mid-year periods. Three of these areas also occupied places in the top
ten highest mid-2005 population estimates (Birmingham ranked top,
Leeds ranked second and Manchester ranked sixth)
l
The South West Peninsula health authority recorded the highest net
inflow of the strategic health authorities in the year to mid-2006 and
also the largest net inflow as a proportion of its mid-2005 population
estimate at 0.78 per cent. The largest absolute net outflows and
proportional net outflows were recorded by the five London strategic
health authorities, and Birmingham and the Black Country
l
Results
GORs, local and unitary authorities
Table 1 shows migration flows by gender for all local and unitary
authorities in England and Wales, grouped by county and GOR within
England, for mid-2005 to mid-2006. GOR totals are also presented in
Table 1, but it should be noted that these figures do not include moves
between the local and unitary authorities within a GOR, so the local and
unitary authority figures do not sum to the GOR totals.
GOR
Table A summarises moves to and from GORs and Wales in order of
size of net flows. Three GORs showed net outflows while the remainder
recorded net inflows. As a result of increasing inflows and declining
outflows, the net outflow of 81,000 from the London GOR continues the
Figure 1
Table A
Autumn 2007
Moves to and from GORs and Wales, mid-2005 to
mid-2006
Region
Region
In
Out
Net
London
West Midlands
North West
Yorkshire and
The Humber
North East
Wales
East Midlands
East
South East
South West
Net flow as a
percentage of
mid-2005
population estimate
(per cent)
163.1
93.2
100.9
243.7
99.9
103.5
–80.6
–6.7
–2.6
–1.07
–0.13
–0.04
93.0
39.8
55.8
107.8
140.5
219.6
134.0
92.4
38.7
49.2
98.3
124.4
200.2
107.1
0.6
1.1
6.6
9.5
16.0
19.4
26.9
0.01
0.04
0.22
0.22
0.29
0.24
0.53
trend of declining net outflows from London towards levels seen prior to
mid-2002 (69,000 in mid-2001). As in mid-2005, the largest flows from
the London GOR were to the South East GOR and vice versa.
The remaining two areas that recorded a net outflow in mid-2006 were the
West Midlands and the North West. The West Midlands recorded a net
outflow for the sixth successive year (6,700). The North West recorded a
net outflow of over 2,500 - an increase of 2,000 on the net outflow in mid2005 (Figure 1). The highest level of flows from the West Midlands GOR
was to the East Midlands and the South West GORs. The highest level of
flows from the North West GOR was to Yorkshire and The Humber GOR.
Wales, the East Midlands, Yorkshire and The Humber, and the South
West GORs all showed a decline in their net inflows when compared
with mid-2005 (Figure 1), although for Wales and the South West GOR,
the declines were very small.
As in the previous five years (Figure 1), the largest net inflow was
experienced by the South West GOR, with just under 27,000 more people
moving to the region than moving from it. In this group, the South West
also recorded the largest net effect on population with net migrants
representing 0.53 per cent of its mid-2005 population estimate. In mid2006, the largest net inflow to the South West GOR was from the South
East GOR.
Net flows by Government Office Region, 2001–2006
Net migrants
Thousands
60
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
40
20
0
−20
−40
−60
−80
−100
−120
−140
North East
North West
Yorkshire
and The
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South East
67
South West
National Statistics
Wales
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
The demographic characteristics of migrants for the South West GOR
were similar to previous years with a net inflow in all age groups except
15 to 24-year-olds, of which there were approximately 800 more people
leaving the GOR than moving into it. The age group recording the
largest net inflow was slightly younger than in mid-2005 (ages 30 to
34). Approximately 3,400 more people in this age group migrated to the
South West GOR than left in mid-2006.
Other regions with relatively large net inflows were the South East
(19,000) and the East (approximately 16,000). As in mid-2005, the
South East GOR had both the largest mid-2005 population estimate and
the highest level of internal migration activity over the year (420,000
movers).
Local and Unitary Authorities
As in previous years, the majority of local and unitary authorities
recorded small net flows in mid-2006, 80 per cent recordeding a net
inflow or outflow of fewer than one thousand migrants in mid-2006,
compared with 82 per cent in mid-2005.
Map 1 illustrates the net migration effect on population at both unitary
and local authority levels. As in previous years, the net migration effect
on population was small for most unitary and local authorities. Fifty-six
percent of local and unitary authorities recorded net inflows or outflows
of less than 0.5 per cent of their mid-year population estimates compared
with 50 percent of authorities in mid-2005 and 43 per cent in mid-2004.
Some large net flows were observed in mid-2006. North Somerset
had the largest net inflow for all local and unitary authorities and also
the highest net inflow as a percentage of the mid-2005 population
estimates for the area (Table B). The area making the largest individual
contribution to these inflows was the neighbouring City of Bristol UA. In
terms of the demographic characteristics of migrants of North Somerset,
all five-year age groups recorded a net inflow into the UA with the
exception of those aged 15 to 19 (net outflow of around 320 people). The
largest net inflow (400) was among people aged 30 to 34.
Newham recorded the largest net outflow (9,500) followed by
Birmingham (7,900). Since mid-2002 Birmingham and Newham have
continuously ranked in the top five for net outflows. Newham also
recorded the largest outflow as a percentage of the 2005 mid-year
population estimates of all the local and unitary authorities. The three
largest net outflows from Newham in mid-2006 were to other areas
within London – Redbridge, Barking and Dagenham and Havering.
Demographically, net outflow from Newham spanned all five-year age
groups. The largest inflows and outflows occurred among 25 to 29-yearTable B
olds and the largest net outflow (approximately 1,400) occurred among
people aged 30 to 34, although this was lowest net flow in this age
group since 2003. In Birmingham, all age groups except one showed a
net outflow. The largest inflows and outflows occurred in the 20-24 age
groups although the highest net flow (approximately 1,900) was seen
among 15 to 19-year-olds.
Looking at unitary authorities alone, the top ten ranked flows in mid2006 were consistent with those seen in the top ten flows in the previous
year. Ninety-two per cent of unitary authorities had a net flow within
±500 of their mid-2005 net flows. Table B shows the top ten inflows
and outflows for mid-2006 and how these flows relate to the mid-2005
population estimates. There is a strong correlation between size of net
flow and flow as a proportion of the population estimate. The unitary
authority with the largest net flow overall also showed the largest
percentage flow relative to their mid-2005 population estimate (Luton
– 3,700). Likewise, the unitary authority with the largest net inflow in
mid-2006 (North Somerset UA - 2,800) also recorded the largest net
inflow as a percentage of their mid-2005 population estimate. In addition
to these, four other unitary authorities had net flows equivalent to at least
one percent of their mid-year estimates. All four are ranked in the top ten
net outflows for mid-2006 and, with the exception of Peterborough UA,
were ranked in the top ten net outflows for mid-2005.
In addition to those unitary authorities mentioned above, a small number
of local authorities (15 per cent) recorded net inflows or outflows
equivalent to at least one per cent of their mid-year population estimates.
The majority of these areas were in the London GOR. For the third
consecutive year, Newham had the largest net outflow as a proportion of
its mid-2005 population estimate at just under four per cent for mid-2006.
As for the unitary authorities, there was, overall, a strong concordance
between high net outflows and large net outflows as a percentage of the
mid-2005 population estimate for the local authorities.
There were few changes to the overall pattern of migration seen in the
year to mid-2006 compared with mid-2005. The largest decline in
net inflows was recorded in East Riding of Yorkshire UA. Here, net
inflow decreased by just under 900 between mid-2005 and mid-2006
due to increasing outflows and decreasing inflows. For the previous five
years, East Riding of Yorkshire UA had recorded the largest net inflow
but this unitary authority moved to second place in mid-2006 (2,100).
As in previous years, migrants to East Riding of Yorkshire UA were
predominantly from Kingston upon Hull, Leeds and York. The largest
drop in migrants to East Riding of Yorkshire UA was from Bradford and
Kirklees. The largest increase in outflows from East Riding of Yorkshire
UA was to Sheffield.
Largest net inflows and net outflows to internal migration, mid-2005 to mid-2006, of unitary authorities
Largest net inflows
Net inflow as a
Largest net outflows
Net outflow as a
(thousands)
percentage of
(thousands)
percentage of
mid-2005
mid-2005
population estimate
population estimate
(per cent)
(per cent)
North Somerset UA
2.8
1.43
Luton UA
–3.7
–1.98
East Riding of Yorkshire UA
2.1
0.64
Leicester UA
–2.9
–1.00
Isle of Wight UA
1.3
0.92
Peterborough UA
–2.1
–1.29
Carmarthenshire
1.3
0.70
Nottingham UA
–1.9
–0.67
Swindon UA
0.9
0.47
Reading UA
–1.6
–1.08
Powys
0.8
0.64
Slough UA
–1.6
–1.32
Poole UA
0.8
0.60
Southampton UA
–1.3
–0.58
West Berkshire UA
0.8
0.53
City of Kingston upon Hull UA
–1.2
–0.48
Torbay UA
0.7
0.53
Middlesbrough UA
–1.0
–0.73
County of Herefordshire UA
0.5
0.28
Medway UA
–1.0
–0.39
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
68
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Map 1
Autumn 2007
Net internal migration as a percentage of the mid-2005 population estimates, local or unitary authority, year to mid-2006
England and Wales
Source: Office for National Statistics
69
National Statistics
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Map 2
Autumn 2007
Flows from London to outside London in year to mid-2006
England and Wales
1 The width of each arrow is proportional to the number of persons migrating out of London to the English regions or Wales
Source: Office for National Statistics
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
70
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
As in the year to mid-2005, the largest net outflow from unitary
authorities occurred from Luton UA with the highest outflows being to
South Bedfordshire. However, the unitary authority with the greatest
increase in net outflows was Peterborough UA where net outflows in
the year to mid-2006 increased by just under 1,300 compared with the
previous year. The greatest increase in outflows from Peterborough UA
was to the neighbouring local authority of South Kesteven.
At the local authority level, the largest year-on-year increase in net
inflows occurred in Guildford and St. Albans. In Guildford the net inflow
of nine for mid-2005 increased to 762 for mid-2006. In St. Albans the
flow changed from a net outflow of 69 in mid-2005 to a net inflow of 645
in mid-2006.
The greatest increase in net outflows was seen in Westminster where
a net outflow of 480 in mid-2005 increased to a net outflow of 2,030
in mid-2006. Similarly in Harrow, net outflow in mid-2005 was
approximately 670 whereas in mid-2006 this had increased to a net
outflow of 2,000.
The largest decline in net outflows occurred in Tower Hamlets where net
outflow was just 2,500 in mid-2006 compared with 4,000 in mid-2005.
This change in net flow can be explained by an increase in inflows and a
decrease in outflows between mid-2005 and mid-2006.
London
As noted earlier, the London GOR, as a whole, experienced a large net
outflow in the year to mid-2006 although this level was lower than in
mid-2005 which in turn was lower than in mid-2004.
Of those moves within England and Wales, fifty-nine percent of outflows
from London boroughs were to other London boroughs (Map 2). The
remaining outflows were to regions outside of London.
At the London borough level2, internal migration activity was high.
Table C shows the London boroughs with the highest levels of migration
activity in the year to mid-2006 compared with the previous two years.
The majority of London boroughs recorded net outflows in mid-2006
(Table D) with only four boroughs (excluding the City of London), all
outer London, recording a net inflow.
Table D
Table C
Autumn 2007
Migration activity in London boroughs, mid-2005 to
mid-2006, mid-2004 to mid-2005 and mid-2003 to
mid-2004
boroughs with highest inflow
Mid-2005 to mid-2006
Wandsworth
25.7
Lambeth
22.9
Southwark
19.7
Barnet
18.5
Croydon
17.5
boroughs with highest outflow
Mid-2005 to mid-2006
Lambeth
Wandsworth
Ealing
Southwark
Newham
28.6
28.6
24.3
23.6
23.4
Mid-2004 to mid-2005
Wandsworth
25.0
Lambeth
22.8
Southwark
18.9
Westminster
18.2
Camden
17.5
Mid-2004 to mid-2005
Lambeth
Wandsworth
Ealing
Southwark
Newham
28.6
27.9
24.3
24.0
23.4
Mid-2003 to mid-2004
Wandsworth
24.2
Lambeth
21.8
Southwark
18.0
Barnet
17.9
Camden
17.7
Mid-2003 to mid-2004
Wandsworth
Lambeth
Ealing
Newham
Southwark
29.0
28.2
25.2
24.3
23.6
Wandsworth and Lambeth had the highest inflows and outflows in all
three years. These two boroughs also had net outflows equivalent to at
least one percent of their mid-2005 populations estimates (Table D).
For Wandsworth the largest inflows and outflows were to other London
boroughs including the neighbouring boroughs of Merton and Lambeth.
Similarly for Lambeth, the largest inflows and outflows were to other
London boroughs.
However, the boroughs with the highest inflows or outflows are not
necessarily the boroughs with the largest net flows. Map 3 and Table
D show the net flows for London boroughs for mid-2006. While
Wandsworth had the highest inflow and a high outflow figures, these
cancelled out to produce a relatively low net flow effect. Newham and
Ealing on the other hand had fewer people coming in than leaving and
hence had the two largest net outflow figures of mid-2006. Brent also
had one of the highest net outflows and net outflows as a percentage
of mid-2005 population estimates but did not fall into the top five of
absolute inflow and outflow figures.
Net outflows for London boroughts, mid-2005 to mid-2006
Net outflow
London boroughs
(thousands)
Net outflow as a
percentage of the mid-2005
population estimate
Net outflow
(per cent)
London boroughs
(thousands)
Net outflow as a percentage
percentage of the mid-2005
population estimate
(per cent)
Newham
–9.5
–3.9
Greenwich
–2.5
Ealing
–6.9
–2.3
Islington
–2.2
Brent
–6.6
–2.4
Barking and Dagenham
–2.0
Lambeth
–5.7
–2.1
Harrow
–2.0
Haringey
–4.8
–2.1
Westminster
–2.0
Hackney
–4.3
–2.0
Kensington and Chelsea
–1.8
Southwark
–3.9
–1.5
Merton
–1.7
Waltham Forest
–3.3
–1.5
Barnet
–1.6
Hounslow
–3.1
–1.5
Camden
–1.5
Lewisham
–3.1
–1.3
Enfield
–1.4
Croydon
–2.9
–0.8
Hillingdon
–1.0
Wandsworth
–2.9
–1.0
Bexley
–0.4
Hammersmith and Fulham
–2.6
–1.5
Kingston upon Thames
–0.1
Tower Hamlets
–2.5
–1.2
71
National Statistics
–1.1
–1.2
–1.2
–0.9
–0.8
–0.9
–0.9
–0.5
–0.6
–0.5
–0.4
–0.2
–0.1
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Map 3
Autumn 2007
Net internal migration by London Borough, year to mid-2006
Source: Office for National Statistics
The highest net outflows were not confined to either the inner or outer
boroughs of London. In Inner London, the largest net outflows were
for Newham (9,500) and Lambeth (5,700). Newham also recorded the
largest net outflow for London boroughs in mid-2005 and mid-2004. For
Outer London the largest net outflows were for Ealing (6,900) and Brent
(6,600), the same as for mid-2005 and mid-2004.
Of all the inner London boroughs that recorded net outflows in mid2006, the three largest net outflows were to other areas within London.
Conversely, for most (80 per cent) outer London boroughs that recorded
a net outflow, at least one out of the top three net outflows were to areas
outside of London. Four of these boroughs (Bexley, Hillingdon, Enfield
and Barnet) had all of their top three net outflows to areas outside of
London; Bexley and Hillingdon were to areas in the South East GOR and
Enfield and Barnet were to areas in the East GOR.
Net inflows were recorded by Bromley, Richmond upon Thames,
Havering and Sutton. Each net inflow represented less than 0.5 percent
of the mid-2005 population estimates for the respective borough. The
highest inflows to all four of these boroughs were from other outer
London boroughs.
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
72
Health Authorities
Table 2 shows migration flows by gender for all health authorities in
England grouped by GOR and former health authorities in Wales, for the
year ending mid-2006. As in Table 1, GOR totals are presented but these
do not include moves between health authorities within each GOR.
Table E shows the health authorities with the largest net inflows and
outflows due to internal migration in the year ending mid-2006.
Just under half (45 per cent) of the health authorities in the year to mid2006 had lower inflows than recorded in mid-2005. Further, thirty-nine
percent of the health authorities showed lower outflows between mid2005 and mid-2006.
Conversely, among the five London health authorities the general trend
has been for an increase in both inflows and outflows with a net effect
of a decline in net outflows between mid-2005 and mid-2006. The only
London health authority to show an increase in net outflows between
mid-2005 and mid-2006 was North West London where the increase in
outflows was marginally higher than the increase in inflows.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table E
Autumn 2007
Largest net outflows and net outflows due to internal migration, mid-2005 to mid-2006 health authority
Largest net outflows
(thousands)
South West Peninsula
Surrey and Sussex
Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire
Dorset and Somerset
Essex
Avon, Gloucestershire and Wiltshire
12.7
11.6
8.6
7.5
6.8
6.7
Net inflow as a
percentage of the mid-2005
population estimate
Largest net outflows
(per cent)
(thousands)
0.78
0.45
0.38
0.62
0.41
0.30
The health authorities holding the top six positions for net outflows
(Table E) in mid-2006 were identical to those recorded in mid-2005,
five of which are the five strategic health authorities in London. As in
mid-2005, the highest recorded net outflow was from North West London
at 26,200. The only non-London area to experience net outflows of a
comparable level was Birmingham and the Black Country, with a net
outflow of 11,400. These six health authorities also recorded the largest
proportional net outflows, with North West London recording the highest
(-1.4 per cent)The rankings of net inflows for mid-2006 were also similar
to last year (Table E). As in mid-2005, the South West Peninsula health
authority recorded the largest net inflow of 12,700 and also the largest
proportional net effect on its population at 0.78 per cent. The health
authorities with the next largest inflows were all in the South East, South
West and East GORs.
Explanatory Notes
Internal migration estimates for England and Wales are produced using
a combination of two data sources: the National Health Service Central
Register (NHSCR); and GPs’ patient registers (PRDS, Patient Register
Data System).
Estimating migration at health authority level
The NHSCR at Southport provides a comprehensive system to assist
with NHS patient administration in England and Wales. One of its roles
is to record the transfer of patients between former HAs. These data
are collected and used as a proxy for internal migration. This occurs
when the NHSCR receives notification that an NHS patient has changed
address to one that is located within a different former HA, although the
NHSCR does not record information on the actual change of address. It
is assumed that the average delay between moving house and registering
with a new GP is about one month. Migration estimates have been
derived from this source since 1975.
It should be noted that these records do not provide perfect estimates of
migration. Their accuracy depends on migrants promptly re-registering
with a new GP when they change their address. It is known that reregistration patterns vary by sex and age group. Young children, their
mothers and the elderly are thought to re-register quite quickly after
moving, while young men take longer to re-register than women of the
same age.
While this data source can provide quarterly and annual estimates of
migration at former HA level by age and gender, it cannot provide any
estimates below that geographic level. For this reason, NHSCR data
are combined with PRDS data, described below, to create migration
estimates at local and unitary authority level.
North West London
North East London
South East London
Birmingham and the Black Country
North Central London
South West London
Net outflow as a percentage
percentage of the mid-2005
population estimate
(per cent)
-26.2
-20.8
-15.2
-11.4
-11.4
-7.1
-1.40
-1.35
-1.00
-0.50
-0.91
-0.53
Estimating migration at local and unitary authority level
Every HA in England and Wales holds a register of the patients
registered with GPs within their area of responsibility. This contains the
NHS number, gender, date of birth, date of acceptance at the HA and,
importantly, the postcode of address for each patient. By obtaining a
download from each patient register on an annual basis and by combining
all patient register extracts together, ONS can create a total register
for the whole of England and Wales. Comparing records in one year
with those of the previous year by linking on NHS number enables
identification of people who have changed their postcode. A migrant is
therefore defined as a person who has changed their residential postcode
between one year and the next. The download is taken on 31 July each
year to enable migration estimates to be made for the year ending 30
June that year. In line with NHSCR data, this allows a month between a
patient moving and registering with a new GP. The patient register data
were used for the first time to produce migration estimates for the year
ending mid-1998.
ONS carried out extensive research to investigate whether the patient
registers represented a suitable source of migration data. That research
is described elsewhere(3, 4). The main conclusions were that data from
the patient registers could be used to provide migration estimates that
are consistent and plausible over time. By aggregating postcodes and
controlling to the more complete NHSCR data, these data can be used
to provide annual estimates of migration for local and unitary authority
areas. In addition, the quality of the information held on patient registers
has been improving over time and is expected to continue to improve.
But migration estimates derived solely from the patient registers have
one main problem. By comparing patient registers in two consecutive
years, certain groups of moves that occur during the year will be missed.
This is because patient registers cannot capture the movement of those
migrants who were not registered with a doctor in one of the two years,
but who moved during the year. The largest group of these is migrant
babies aged less than one year, who would not be on a register at the
start of the year. Other people who are not on the register at the start of
the year, but who move after joining the NHS and before the end of the
year, would not be captured either, For example, those leaving the armed
forces, or international in-migrants. Similarly, people who move within
the year but are not on a register at the end of the year are not captured.
Such people would include anyone who moved and then, before the end
of the year, either died, enlisted in the armed forces or left the country.
All of these within-year moves are included in the existing migration
estimates derived from the NHSCR, so the more geographically detailed
data from the patient registers is combined with the more complete
information from the NHSCR to produce migration estimates for local
and unitary authority areas.
73
National Statistics
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
Future research into internal migration data
The aim of the Improving Migration and Population Statistics (IMPS)
project is to improve migration and population statistics produced by
ONS. Part of the remit of the IMPS project involves reviewing internal
migration estimates. This includes researching other administrative
sources that could be used to improve estimates of internal migration
and specific population subgroups where there are known issues with
accurately measuring migration. Work is also being taken forward to
gain a better understanding of the effectiveness of current methods
in estimating the internal migration of students at both the beginning
and end of their studies. Further information about the IMPS project is
available from http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/methodology/
specific/population/future/imps/default.asp.
Internal migration data are disseminated via Population Trends, Social
Trends & Social Focus, Regional Trends and Key Population and Vital
Statistics. The patient register data was published in 2000 to complement
the existing internal migration data.
Quarterly Rolling Year Data
The following migration outputs are available from ONS for twelvemonth periods ending March, June, September and December. The
earliest is that ending December 1975. The latest estimates are available
nine months after the end of the quarter. These tables are based solely
upon NHSCR data.
l
l
l
Table 1 - Flows (numbers) to and from a former HA, from and to the
rest of the UK, by sex and five-year age group.
Table 2a - Origin/destination matrix of flows between former HAs
and the rest of the UK.
Table 2b - Flows to and from a given former HA, from and to each
other former HA by broad age group.
Table 3 - For a GOR of choice or for Wales, an origin/destination
matrix with a broad age breakdown showing moves between the
former HAs in a chosen GOR or Wales. In addition, this table
contains information on moves between each of the other GORs.
Mid-year annual data.
Local authority estimates derived from the combination of NHSCR
and patient register data are available annually from the year ending
mid-1999 to the most recent year available. The tables below, which are
similar to the NHSCR version of Table 1 above, can be downloaded free
of charge from the National Statistics Website http://www.statistics.gov.
uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=7070
l
l
l
Numbers to and from each local authority in England and Wales,
from and to the rest of the UK by sex.
Numbers to and from each local authority in England and Wales,
from and to the rest of the UK, by sex and broad age group.
Numbers to and from each local authority in England and Wales,
from and to the rest of the UK, by sex, and five-year age group.
In addition, ONS have used the patient register data in the production of
annual mid-year versions of the NHSCR-based origin/destination tables
(tables 2a, 2b and 3). The following tables are available on request for the
years ending June from 1999 up to 2006.
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
Ad hoc data
Tables for GORs, former HAs or LA/UAs showing bespoke age
breakdowns and sex can be provided.
To order Internal Migration tables, or for enquiries about internal
migration estimates, please email the ONS Migration Statistics Unit at
‘[email protected]’.
Data Availability
l
Table 2a - Origin/destination matrix of flows between local
authorities in England and Wales.
l
Table 2b - Flows to and from a given local authority, from and to
each other local authority in England and Wales, by broad age group.
l
Table 3 - For a GOR of choice or for Wales, an origin/destination
matrix with a broad age breakdown showing moves between the
local authorities in a chosen GOR or Wales. In addition, this table
contains information on moves between each of the other GORs.
l
74
Notes and References
1. In England, 28 strategic health authorities (SHAs) replaced the 95
former health authorities (former HAs) in April 2002. No similar level
of administration was created in Wales to replace the five former HAs.
Therefore the term health authorities in this report refers to SHAs within
England and former HAs within Wales.
2. The 32 London boroughs do not include the City of London.
3. Chappell R., Vickers L., Evans H., The Use of Patient Registers to
Estimate Migration, Population Trends 101, 2000.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/
PT101bookV3.pdf
4. Scott A., Kilbey T., Can Patient Registers give an improved measure of
internal migration in England and Wales?, Population Trends 96, 1999.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/PT96book.pdf
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1
Autumn 2007
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England and Wales,
gross and net flows, by sex, mid-2005 to mid-2006
England, Wales, Government Office Regions, local authorities Thousands
Area
Persons
In
Out
Net
Males
In
Out
Net
Out
Net
NORTH EAST
39.8
38.7
1.1
19.6
18.7
0.9
20.2
20.0
Darlington UA
3.5
3.2
0.3
1.7
1.6
0.1
1.8
1.7
Hartlepool UA
1.9
1.8
0.1
1.0
0.9
0.1
0.9
0.9
Middlesbrough UA
4.6
5.6
-1.0
2.4
2.8
-0.5
2.2
2.8
Redcar and Cleveland UA
3.3
3.6
-0.4
1.7
1.8
-0.1
1.6
1.8
Stockton on Tees UA
5.7
5.2
0.5
2.9
2.7
0.2
2.8
2.5
Durham
Chester-le-Street
2.0
1.9
0.1
1.0
0.9
0.0
1.0
1.0
Derwentside
2.8
2.4
0.4
1.4
1.2
0.2
1.4
1.2
Durham
6.3
5.7
0.6
3.1
2.5
0.6
3.2
3.2
Easington
2.5
2.2
0.4
1.2
1.0
0.2
1.3
1.1
Sedgefield
2.9
3.2
-0.3
1.4
1.6
-0.2
1.5
1.6
Teesdale
1.2
1.1
0.2
0.6
0.5
0.1
0.6
0.6
Wear Valley
2.5
2.2
0.3
1.2
1.0
0.2
1.2
1.1
Northumberland
Alnwick
1.7
1.5
0.2
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.9
0.8
Berwick-upon-Tweed
1.1
1.1
0.1
0.6
0.5
0.1
0.6
0.6
Blyth Valley
2.4
2.6
-0.2
1.2
1.4
-0.2
1.2
1.3
Castle Morpeth
2.5
2.4
0.1
1.2
1.2
0.0
1.3
1.2
Tynedale
2.5
2.1
0.4
1.2
1.0
0.2
1.3
1.1
Wansbeck
2.0
1.8
0.2
1.0
0.9
0.1
1.0
0.9
Tyne and Wear (Met County)
Gateshead
6.5
6.2
0.3
3.2
3.0
0.2
3.3
3.2
Newcastle upon Tyne
14.6
15.2
-0.6
7.0
7.3
-0.3
7.6
7.9
North Tyneside
7.1
5.8
1.3
3.5
2.9
0.6
3.6
2.9
South Tyneside
2.9
3.2
-0.3
1.5
1.7
-0.1
1.4
1.5
Sunderland
5.3
6.7
-1.3
2.7
3.4
-0.8
2.6
3.2
NORTH WEST
100.9
103.5
-2.6
49.1
49.9
-0.8
51.8
53.5
Blackburn with Darwen UA
4.2
5.1
-0.9
2.2
2.6
-0.4
2.1
2.6
Blackpool UA
7.8
7.6
0.2
4.1
3.9
0.2
3.7
3.8
Halton UA
3.1
3.2
-0.1
1.6
1.6
0.0
1.5
1.6
Warrington UA
6.0
5.5
0.5
3.0
2.8
0.2
3.1
2.7
Cheshire
Chester
7.0
6.7
0.3
3.1
3.0
0.2
3.9
3.7
Congleton
4.1
4.0
0.1
2.0
1.9
0.1
2.1
2.1
Crewe and Nantwich
4.2
3.7
0.5
2.0
1.8
0.2
2.2
1.9
Ellesmere Port & Neston
2.6
2.6
0.0
1.2
1.3
0.0
1.3
1.3
Macclesfield
6.4
6.1
0.3
3.0
3.0
0.1
3.3
3.1
Vale Royal
4.6
4.2
0.4
2.2
2.0
0.2
2.4
2.2
Cumbria
Allerdale
2.8
2.6
0.1
1.3
1.3
0.0
1.4
1.3
Barrow-in-Furness
1.6
1.6
0.0
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.8
0.8
Carlisle
3.5
3.0
0.4
1.7
1.5
0.2
1.8
1.6
Copeland
1.9
1.7
0.2
1.0
0.8
0.1
0.9
0.8
Eden
2.1
2.0
0.1
1.0
1.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
South Lakeland
4.4
4.2
0.2
2.2
2.0
0.2
2.2
2.2
Greater Manchester (Met County)
Bolton
6.9
7.6
-0.7
3.4
3.8
-0.4
3.5
3.8
Bury
6.3
6.5
-0.2
3.2
3.3
-0.1
3.1
3.3
Manchester
28.2
29.7
-1.4
13.6
14.3
-0.7
14.6
15.3
Oldham
5.0
6.1
-1.1
2.5
3.0
-0.6
2.5
3.1
Rochdale
5.4
6.5
-1.1
2.7
3.2
-0.6
2.7
3.3
Salford
9.6
9.7
-0.1
4.8
4.9
0.0
4.8
4.8
Stockport
8.8
9.6
-0.8
4.3
4.6
-0.3
4.5
5.0
Tameside
6.0
6.0
0.0
3.0
3.0
0.0
3.0
3.0
Trafford
9.3
9.1
0.2
4.5
4.3
0.2
4.8
4.8
Wigan
6.9
6.7
0.2
3.4
3.3
0.2
3.5
3.4
Lancashire
Burnley
3.1
3.4
-0.3
1.5
1.7
-0.1
1.5
1.7
Chorley
3.8
3.7
0.1
1.8
1.8
0.0
2.0
1.9
Fylde
4.0
3.4
0.6
2.0
1.7
0.3
2.0
1.8
Hyndburn
2.9
3.1
-0.1
1.5
1.5
-0.1
1.5
1.5
Lancaster
7.0
6.7
0.3
3.3
3.1
0.1
3.7
3.6
0.2
75
In
Females
National Statistics
0.2
0.0
-0.6
-0.2
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.3
0.7
-0.1
-0.6
-1.7
-0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
0.0
-0.5
0.0
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.3
-0.1
0.2
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1
continued
Autumn 2007
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England and Wales,
gross and net flows, by sex, mid-2005 to mid-2006
England, Wales, Government Office Regions, local authorities Thousands
Area
Persons
In
Net
Pendle
3.3
3.3
0.0
1.6
1.6
0.1
1.6
1.7
Preston
6.3
6.4
-0.1
2.9
3.0
-0.1
3.3
3.4
Ribble Valley
2.8
2.4
0.5
1.4
1.1
0.3
1.4
1.2
Rossendale
2.7
2.5
0.2
1.4
1.3
0.1
1.3
1.2
South Ribble
4.2
3.7
0.5
2.0
1.8
0.2
2.2
1.9
West Lancashire
4.3
3.9
0.4
2.0
1.9
0.1
2.3
2.0
Wyre
5.2
4.3
1.0
2.6
2.1
0.5
2.6
2.2
Merseyside (Met County)
Knowsley
4.7
4.7
0.0
2.3
2.4
-0.1
2.4
2.3
Liverpool
15.4
17.9
-2.5
7.3
8.4
-1.1
8.1
9.5
St. Helens
4.3
4.3
0.0
2.2
2.1
0.1
2.1
2.2
Sefton
7.0
7.3
-0.3
3.4
3.5
-0.1
3.5
3.8
Wirral
6.6
6.6
0.0
3.3
3.3
0.0
3.3
3.3
YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER
93.0
92.4
0.6
44.6
44.2
0.4
48.4
48.2
East Riding of Yorkshire UA
14.4
12.3
2.1
7.0
5.9
1.1
7.4
6.4
Kingston upon Hull, City of UA
7.5
8.8
-1.2
3.8
4.3
-0.5
3.8
4.4
North East Lincolnshire UA
3.9
4.6
-0.7
2.0
2.3
-0.3
1.9
2.3
North Lincolnshire UA
4.6
4.2
0.4
2.3
2.1
0.2
2.3
2.1
York UA
10.3
9.6
0.7
4.7
4.5
0.2
5.6
5.1
North Yorkshire
Craven
2.6
2.2
0.4
1.3
1.1
0.2
1.3
1.1
Hambleton
4.0
3.3
0.6
1.9
1.5
0.3
2.1
1.8
Harrogate
6.3
5.8
0.5
2.9
2.7
0.2
3.4
3.1
Richmondshire
2.6
2.6
0.0
1.1
1.1
0.0
1.5
1.5
Ryedale
2.3
2.2
0.1
1.1
1.1
0.0
1.2
1.1
Scarborough
4.3
4.1
0.3
2.2
1.9
0.2
2.2
2.1
Selby
3.9
3.3
0.6
1.8
1.5
0.3
2.0
1.7
South Yorkshire (Met County)
Barnsley
5.8
4.8
1.0
2.8
2.3
0.5
3.0
2.4
Doncaster
6.9
7.7
-0.8
3.5
3.8
-0.4
3.4
3.8
Rotherham
6.5
6.6
-0.1
3.2
3.2
0.0
3.3
3.4
Sheffield
18.7
19.6
-0.9
9.1
9.5
-0.4
9.5
10.1
West Yorkshire (Met County)
Bradford
13.3
15.5
-2.2
6.6
7.7
-1.2
6.8
7.8
Calderdale
6.3
5.8
0.5
3.1
2.8
0.3
3.2
3.0
Kirklees
11.4
11.8
-0.3
5.6
5.8
-0.2
5.8
6.0
Leeds
29.6
30.0
-0.4
14.0
14.2
-0.3
15.6
15.8
Wakefield
8.3
8.2
0.1
4.1
4.0
0.1
4.2
4.2
EAST MIDLANDS
107.8
98.3
9.5
52.0
47.8
4.3
55.7
50.5
Derby UA
8.6
9.4
-0.8
4.3
4.7
-0.4
4.4
4.8
Leicester UA
13.6
16.5
-2.9
6.5
7.8
-1.4
7.2
8.7
Nottingham UA
19.5
21.3
-1.9
9.6
10.5
-1.0
9.9
10.8
Rutland UA
2.5
2.2
0.3
1.2
1.0
0.2
1.3
1.2
Derbyshire
Amber Valley
4.7
3.8
0.9
2.2
1.8
0.5
2.4
2.0
Bolsover
3.4
3.1
0.3
1.6
1.5
0.1
1.7
1.5
Chesterfield
3.4
3.1
0.3
1.7
1.5
0.2
1.7
1.6
Derbyshire Dales
3.0
2.9
0.1
1.5
1.4
0.1
1.5
1.5
Erewash
3.9
4.1
-0.2
1.9
2.0
-0.1
2.0
2.1
High Peak
3.8
3.1
0.6
1.8
1.5
0.3
1.9
1.6
North East Derbyshire
3.9
3.6
0.2
1.8
1.7
0.1
2.0
1.9
South Derbyshire
5.1
4.1
1.0
2.5
2.0
0.5
2.6
2.1
Leicestershire
Blaby
4.5
4.5
0.1
2.2
2.2
0.0
2.3
2.2
Charnwood
9.2
8.3
0.9
4.8
4.2
0.5
4.4
4.0
Harborough
4.3
3.7
0.7
2.1
1.8
0.3
2.3
1.9
Hinckley and Bosworth
4.3
3.9
0.4
2.1
2.0
0.1
2.2
2.0
Melton
2.1
2.1
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
1.1
1.1
North West Leicestershire
3.9
3.7
0.3
1.9
1.8
0.1
2.0
1.9
Oadby and Wigston
4.0
3.7
0.2
1.9
1.9
0.0
2.0
1.8
-0.1
0.0
76
Net
In
Out
Net
In
Females
Out
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
Out
Males
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.1
-1.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.2
1.0
-0.7
-0.4
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.6
-0.4
-0.1
-0.6
-1.0
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
5.2
-0.4
-1.5
-0.9
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1
continued
Autumn 2007
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England and Wales,
gross and net flows, by sex, mid-2005 to mid-2006
England, Wales, Government Office Regions, local authorities Thousands
Area
Persons
In
Out
Net
Males
In
Out
Net
In
Females
Out
Lincolnshire
Boston
2.3
2.4
-0.1
1.2
1.2
0.0
1.1
1.2
East Lindsey
7.3
5.9
1.3
3.5
2.9
0.6
3.7
3.0
Lincoln
6.0
5.8
0.2
2.8
2.7
0.1
3.2
3.1
North Kesteven
5.8
4.6
1.2
2.7
2.1
0.6
3.1
2.5
South Holland
3.6
3.0
0.6
1.8
1.5
0.3
1.9
1.6
South Kesteven
6.1
5.2
0.9
2.9
2.6
0.4
3.2
2.7
West Lindsey
5.1
3.7
1.3
2.4
1.9
0.6
2.6
1.9
Northamptonshire
Corby
2.0
2.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
Daventry
4.3
3.8
0.4
2.1
1.9
0.3
2.1
1.9
East Northamptonshire
5.2
4.0
1.2
2.6
2.0
0.6
2.6
2.0
Kettering
4.1
3.4
0.7
2.0
1.6
0.3
2.1
1.7
Northampton
9.1
9.7
-0.5
4.4
4.7
-0.3
4.8
5.0
South Northamptonshire
5.5
4.7
0.8
2.7
2.3
0.3
2.8
2.4
Wellingborough
3.4
3.6
-0.1
1.6
1.8
-0.1
1.8
1.8
Nottinghamshire
Ashfield
4.6
4.2
0.4
2.3
2.0
0.2
2.3
2.2
Bassetlaw
4.1
4.0
0.2
2.0
2.0
0.0
2.1
2.0
Broxtowe
5.7
6.0
-0.3
2.7
2.9
-0.2
3.0
3.1
Gedling
4.9
5.3
-0.4
2.3
2.5
-0.1
2.6
2.8
Mansfield
3.9
3.8
0.1
1.9
1.8
0.1
2.0
1.9
Newark and Sherwood
5.2
4.4
0.8
2.5
2.1
0.4
2.6
2.3
Rushcliffe
6.1
5.8
0.2
2.9
2.7
0.1
3.2
3.1
WEST MIDLANDS
93.2
99.9
-6.7
44.7
48.2
-3.5
48.5
51.7
Herefordshire, County of UA
6.4
5.9
0.5
3.1
2.8
0.3
3.3
3.1
Stoke-on-Trent UA
8.7
9.2
-0.5
4.2
4.5
-0.3
4.5
4.7
Telford and Wrekin UA
5.3
5.9
-0.6
2.7
3.0
-0.3
2.6
3.0
Shropshire
Bridgnorth
2.5
2.3
0.2
1.2
1.1
0.1
1.3
1.2
North Shropshire
3.4
2.7
0.6
1.6
1.3
0.3
1.8
1.4
Oswestry
2.0
1.4
0.6
0.9
0.7
0.3
1.1
0.7
Shrewsbury and Atcham
3.9
3.9
0.1
1.9
1.9
0.0
2.0
1.9
South Shropshire
2.2
1.8
0.4
1.0
0.9
0.1
1.2
1.0
Staffordshire
Cannock Chase
2.9
3.2
-0.2
1.4
1.6
-0.2
1.5
1.6
East Staffordshire
3.9
4.0
-0.1
1.9
2.0
-0.1
2.0
2.1
Lichfield
4.8
4.0
0.8
2.3
1.9
0.3
2.5
2.0
Newcastle-under-Lyme
5.7
5.9
-0.2
2.8
2.8
0.0
3.0
3.1
South Staffordshire
4.5
4.2
0.3
2.2
2.1
0.1
2.3
2.1
Stafford
5.3
4.8
0.4
2.8
2.5
0.2
2.5
2.3
Staffordshire Moorlands
3.7
3.1
0.5
1.8
1.5
0.3
1.9
1.6
Tamworth
2.6
2.8
-0.1
1.3
1.4
-0.1
1.4
1.4
Warwickshire
North Warwickshire
2.7
2.7
0.0
1.3
1.3
0.1
1.4
1.5
Nuneaton and Bedworth
4.1
3.9
0.2
1.9
1.8
0.2
2.2
2.1
Rugby
4.3
3.8
0.5
2.1
1.8
0.3
2.2
2.0
Stratford-on-Avon
6.4
5.2
1.2
3.0
2.3
0.7
3.5
2.9
Warwick
7.0
6.7
0.3
3.4
3.1
0.3
3.6
3.6
West Midlands (Met County)
Birmingham
32.6
40.4
-7.9
15.4
19.5
-4.1
17.2
21.0
Coventry
12.2
13.8
-1.6
6.0
6.7
-0.7
6.2
7.1
Dudley
8.0
8.4
-0.4
4.0
4.2
-0.2
4.1
4.2
Sandwell
10.5
11.4
-0.9
5.1
5.5
-0.5
5.4
5.9
Solihull
8.4
7.9
0.5
4.1
3.9
0.2
4.3
4.0
Walsall
7.3
8.7
-1.4
3.5
4.3
-0.8
3.9
4.5
Wolverhampton
7.7
9.0
-1.3
3.8
4.5
-0.7
3.9
4.5
Worcestershire
Bromsgrove
4.6
3.9
0.7
2.2
1.8
0.3
2.4
2.0
Malvern Hills
4.1
3.6
0.5
2.0
1.7
0.2
2.2
1.9
Redditch
2.7
2.8
-0.1
1.4
1.3
0.0
1.3
1.5
Worcester
4.3
4.5
-0.3
2.1
2.2
-0.1
2.2
2.4
77
National Statistics
Net
-0.1
0.7
0.1
0.6
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.0
0.2
0.6
0.3
-0.2
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.4
0.1
-3.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.0
-3.8
-0.8
-0.2
-0.5
0.3
-0.6
-0.6
0.4
0.3
-0.1
-0.2
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1
continued
Autumn 2007
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England and Wales,
gross and net flows, by sex, mid-2005 to mid-2006
England, Wales, Government Office Regions, local authorities Thousands
Area
Persons
In
Net
Wychavon
5.3
4.8
0.5
2.6
2.4
0.2
2.7
2.5
Wyre Forest
3.3
3.2
0.0
1.6
1.6
0.0
1.7
1.6
EAST
140.5
124.4
16.0
67.8
59.7
8.1
72.7
64.8
Luton UA
6.1
9.8
-3.7
3.0
4.7
-1.7
3.1
5.1
Peterborough UA
6.1
8.2
-2.1
3.1
4.1
-1.0
3.1
4.1
Southend-on-Sea UA
7.1
6.7
0.4
3.5
3.2
0.3
3.6
3.5
Thurrock UA
6.2
6.2
0.0
3.0
3.0
0.0
3.2
3.2
Bedfordshire
Bedford
6.1
6.1
0.1
3.0
3.0
0.0
3.1
3.0
Mid Bedfordshire
7.4
6.4
1.0
3.6
3.1
0.4
3.8
3.3
South Bedfordshire
6.0
5.6
0.4
3.0
2.8
0.2
3.1
2.9
Cambridgeshire
Cambridge
11.1
11.6
-0.5
5.4
5.5
-0.1
5.7
6.1
East Cambridgeshire
4.4
3.5
0.9
2.2
1.7
0.5
2.3
1.8
Fenland
4.9
3.9
1.1
2.4
1.9
0.6
2.5
2.0
Huntingdonshire
7.3
6.9
0.4
3.5
3.3
0.2
3.8
3.6
South Cambridgeshire
8.9
8.3
0.6
4.2
4.0
0.3
4.6
4.3
Essex
Basildon
6.9
7.2
-0.3
3.4
3.6
-0.2
3.6
3.7
Braintree
6.8
5.8
1.0
3.2
2.8
0.5
3.6
3.0
Brentwood
3.7
3.4
0.3
1.8
1.6
0.1
1.9
1.7
Castle Point
3.7
3.4
0.3
1.8
1.7
0.0
1.9
1.6
Chelmsford
7.6
7.5
0.1
3.7
3.5
0.2
3.9
4.0
Colchester
8.6
7.6
1.1
4.1
3.6
0.5
4.5
4.0
Epping Forest
7.1
6.4
0.7
3.4
3.0
0.4
3.7
3.3
Harlow
3.1
3.7
-0.6
1.5
1.8
-0.2
1.6
1.9
Maldon
3.2
2.8
0.4
1.6
1.4
0.2
1.6
1.4
Rochford
4.0
3.3
0.7
1.9
1.6
0.3
2.0
1.7
Tendring
6.6
4.7
1.9
3.2
2.2
0.9
3.4
2.4
Uttlesford
4.6
3.8
0.8
2.2
1.8
0.4
2.4
1.9
Hertfordshire
Broxbourne
4.7
4.5
0.2
2.3
2.2
0.1
2.4
2.3
Dacorum
6.5
6.6
-0.1
3.1
3.2
0.0
3.3
3.4
East Hertfordshire
7.6
7.1
0.5
3.6
3.5
0.2
3.9
3.6
Hertsmere
6.0
5.4
0.6
2.9
2.5
0.4
3.2
2.9
North Hertfordshire
6.7
5.7
0.9
3.2
2.7
0.5
3.4
3.0
St Albans
7.5
6.8
0.6
3.6
3.3
0.3
3.9
3.5
Stevenage
3.3
3.9
-0.6
1.6
1.9
-0.3
1.7
2.0
Three Rivers
5.1
4.8
0.3
2.4
2.3
0.2
2.7
2.5
Watford
4.9
5.8
-0.9
2.4
2.8
-0.5
2.5
3.0
Welwyn Hatfield
7.2
5.9
1.2
3.5
2.8
0.7
3.7
3.2
Norfolk
Breckland
6.0
5.4
0.6
2.9
2.6
0.3
3.1
2.8
Broadland
6.1
5.2
0.9
3.0
2.5
0.4
3.2
2.7
Great Yarmouth
3.7
3.5
0.3
1.9
1.8
0.1
1.8
1.7
King’s Lynn and West Norfolk
5.9
4.9
0.9
2.8
2.4
0.4
3.0
2.5
North Norfolk
4.6
3.7
0.9
2.2
1.8
0.5
2.4
2.0
Norwich
9.6
9.2
0.4
4.7
4.4
0.3
4.9
4.8
South Norfolk
6.2
5.7
0.5
3.0
2.7
0.3
3.2
3.0
Suffolk
Babergh
4.4
3.9
0.5
2.1
1.9
0.2
2.3
2.0
Forest Heath
2.7
2.5
0.2
1.3
1.2
0.1
1.4
1.3
Ipswich
5.0
5.8
-0.8
2.4
2.9
-0.5
2.6
2.9
Mid Suffolk
5.0
4.0
1.0
2.4
2.0
0.4
2.6
2.1
St Edmundsbury
5.0
4.3
0.6
2.4
2.1
0.3
2.6
2.3
Suffolk Coastal
6.1
4.5
1.6
2.9
2.2
0.7
3.2
2.3
Waveney
4.2
3.6
0.6
2.1
1.8
0.3
2.1
1.8
LONDON
163.1
243.7
-80.6
77.6
117.6
-40.0
85.5
126.1
Inner London
Camden
17.4
18.9
-1.5
7.9
8.6
-0.8
9.5
10.2
0.3
0.0
78
Net
In
Out
Net
In
Females
Out
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
Out
Males
7.9
-2.0
-1.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.2
-0.5
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.3
-0.1
0.6
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.6
0.3
-0.3
0.3
0.4
1.0
0.5
0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.4
-0.3
0.1
-0.5
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.1
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.1
-0.3
0.6
0.3
0.9
0.3
-40.6
-0.7
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1
continued
Autumn 2007
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England and Wales,
gross and net flows, by sex, mid-2005 to mid-2006
England, Wales, Government Office Regions, local authorities Thousands
Area
Persons
In
Out
Net
Males
In
Out
Net
Out
Net
City of London
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.4
Hackney
13.3
17.5
-4.3
5.9
8.1
-2.1
7.3
9.5
Hammersmith and Fulham
13.9
16.5
-2.6
5.9
7.2
-1.2
8.0
9.4
Haringey
16.3
21.0
-4.8
7.5
9.9
-2.3
8.7
11.2
Islington
16.4
18.6
-2.2
7.4
8.6
-1.2
9.0
10.0
Kensington and Chelsea
9.5
11.4
-1.8
4.2
5.0
-0.8
5.3
6.4
Lambeth
22.9
28.6
-5.7
10.5
13.2
-2.7
12.4
15.4
Lewisham
17.3
20.4
-3.1
8.0
9.5
-1.5
9.3
11.0
Newham
13.9
23.4
-9.5
6.8
11.7
-4.9
7.1
11.7
Southwark
19.7
23.6
-3.9
9.2
10.9
-1.7
10.5
12.7
Tower Hamlets
14.4
17.0
-2.5
6.9
8.2
-1.3
7.5
8.8
Wandsworth
25.7
28.6
-2.9
11.1
12.8
-1.7
14.7
15.8
Westminster
17.3
19.4
-2.0
7.9
8.7
-0.8
9.4
10.7
Outer London
Barking and Dagenham
9.8
11.8
-2.0
4.6
5.7
-1.1
5.2
6.1
Barnet
18.5
20.1
-1.6
8.5
9.3
-0.8
10.0
10.8
Bexley
9.9
10.3
-0.4
4.6
4.8
-0.2
5.2
5.5
Brent
14.5
21.1
-6.6
6.8
10.0
-3.3
7.8
11.1
Bromley
15.2
14.8
0.4
7.2
7.0
0.1
8.0
7.7
Croydon
17.5
20.4
-2.9
8.4
9.8
-1.4
9.2
10.6
Ealing
17.4
24.3
-6.9
8.4
11.6
-3.2
9.0
12.7
Enfield
15.9
17.3
-1.4
7.5
8.2
-0.7
8.4
9.1
Greenwich
14.3
16.8
-2.5
6.6
7.9
-1.3
7.7
8.9
Harrow
12.4
14.4
-2.0
6.1
7.0
-0.9
6.4
7.4
Havering
9.5
8.8
0.8
4.5
4.2
0.3
5.1
4.5
Hillingdon
14.2
15.2
-1.0
7.0
7.6
-0.5
7.2
7.6
Hounslow
13.7
16.8
-3.1
6.6
8.0
-1.3
7.0
8.8
Kingston upon Thames
11.0
11.1
-0.1
5.1
5.2
-0.1
5.9
5.9
Merton
13.5
15.2
-1.7
6.4
7.2
-0.9
7.1
8.0
Redbridge
15.6
15.7
0.0
7.5
7.6
-0.1
8.2
8.1
Richmond upon Thames
12.7
12.5
0.2
5.8
5.8
0.1
6.9
6.8
Sutton
10.1
9.7
0.4
4.8
4.7
0.1
5.3
5.0
Waltham Forest
12.1
15.4
-3.3
5.8
7.3
-1.6
6.3
8.1
SOUTH EAST
219.6
200.2
19.4
105.4
96.5
8.9
114.2
103.7
Bracknell Forest UA
5.9
6.2
-0.3
2.9
3.1
-0.2
3.0
3.2
Brighton and Hove UA
16.1
16.3
-0.3
7.7
7.7
0.0
8.4
8.6
Isle of Wight UA
4.9
3.6
1.3
2.4
1.8
0.7
2.5
1.9
Medway UA
9.0
10.0
-1.0
4.3
4.9
-0.6
4.7
5.1
Milton Keynes UA
10.2
9.8
0.4
5.0
4.8
0.2
5.2
4.9
Portsmouth UA
9.8
10.4
-0.6
4.8
5.2
-0.3
5.0
5.2
Reading UA
10.2
11.8
-1.6
5.0
5.7
-0.7
5.1
6.1
Slough UA
5.7
7.3
-1.6
2.8
3.6
-0.8
2.9
3.7
Southampton UA
13.0
14.3
-1.3
6.5
7.2
-0.7
6.6
7.2
West Berkshire UA
8.3
7.5
0.8
4.1
3.7
0.3
4.2
3.8
Windsor and Maidenhead UA
8.6
8.3
0.3
4.1
4.1
0.0
4.5
4.2
Wokingham UA
10.2
9.6
0.6
4.8
4.6
0.2
5.5
5.0
Buckinghamshire
Aylesbury Vale
8.4
7.8
0.6
4.0
3.8
0.2
4.3
3.9
Chiltern
5.3
4.8
0.5
2.5
2.3
0.3
2.8
2.6
South Bucks
4.4
4.2
0.2
2.1
2.0
0.2
2.3
2.2
Wycombe
7.8
8.6
-0.9
3.7
4.1
-0.4
4.1
4.6
East Sussex
Eastbourne
6.1
4.9
1.2
3.0
2.3
0.6
3.1
2.6
Hastings
4.1
4.3
-0.2
2.0
2.1
-0.1
2.1
2.1
Lewes
5.0
4.4
0.6
2.4
2.1
0.2
2.6
2.2
Rother
5.4
4.3
1.1
2.6
2.1
0.6
2.8
2.2
Wealden
7.8
7.0
0.8
3.7
3.4
0.3
4.1
3.6
Hampshire
Basingstoke and Deane
6.7
6.5
0.2
3.3
3.2
0.0
3.4
3.3
East Hampshire
6.3
6.1
0.2
2.9
2.8
0.1
3.4
3.2
Eastleigh
6.3
5.7
0.7
3.1
2.8
0.3
3.3
2.9
0.0
-2.1
-1.4
-2.4
79
In
Females
National Statistics
-1.0
-1.1
-3.0
-1.6
-4.6
-2.2
-1.3
-1.2
-1.3
-0.9
-0.8
-0.2
-3.3
0.3
-1.5
-3.7
-0.7
-1.2
-1.0
0.5
-0.4
-1.8
0.0
-0.9
0.1
0.2
0.3
-1.7
10.5
-0.2
-0.2
0.6
-0.4
0.2
-0.3
-0.9
-0.8
-0.6
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.1
-0.5
0.6
-0.1
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.4
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1
continued
Autumn 2007
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England and Wales,
gross and net flows, by sex, mid-2005 to mid-2006
England, Wales, Government Office Regions, local authorities Thousands
Area
Persons
In
Net
Fareham
5.6
5.2
0.5
2.8
2.5
0.3
2.8
2.7
Gosport
4.0
3.4
0.6
1.9
1.6
0.3
2.1
1.8
Hart
5.9
5.2
0.7
2.7
2.5
0.3
3.1
2.7
Havant
5.3
5.3
-0.1
2.6
2.6
0.0
2.7
2.7
New Forest
7.9
6.8
1.2
3.9
3.3
0.6
4.1
3.5
Rushmoor
5.9
6.0
-0.1
2.8
2.8
0.0
3.2
3.2
Test Valley
5.8
5.6
0.1
2.7
2.8
0.0
3.0
2.8
Winchester
7.8
7.3
0.5
3.6
3.4
0.2
4.2
3.9
Kent
Ashford
6.0
4.7
1.2
2.9
2.3
0.6
3.1
2.4
Canterbury
9.2
8.3
0.9
4.2
3.8
0.5
5.0
4.5
Dartford
4.8
4.4
0.4
2.3
2.1
0.2
2.5
2.3
Dover
4.1
4.1
0.0
2.1
2.0
0.1
2.0
2.1
Gravesham
3.7
3.9
-0.2
1.8
1.9
-0.1
1.9
2.0
Maidstone
7.3
6.4
0.9
3.5
3.1
0.4
3.8
3.2
Sevenoaks
6.4
5.7
0.7
3.1
2.8
0.3
3.4
2.9
Shepway
4.5
4.3
0.2
2.2
2.1
0.2
2.3
2.3
Swale
5.0
4.4
0.5
2.5
2.2
0.4
2.5
2.3
Thanet
4.7
4.3
0.4
2.4
2.2
0.2
2.3
2.1
Tonbridge and Malling
6.7
5.5
1.2
3.3
2.7
0.6
3.4
2.8
Tunbridge Wells
5.9
5.7
0.2
2.8
2.8
0.0
3.2
3.0
Oxfordshire
Cherwell
7.0
7.1
-0.1
3.4
3.4
0.0
3.6
3.7
Oxford
13.6
14.6
-0.9
6.8
7.0
-0.3
6.9
7.5
South Oxfordshire
7.2
7.7
-0.5
3.5
3.8
-0.3
3.7
3.9
Vale of White Horse
6.7
6.9
-0.2
3.2
3.3
-0.1
3.5
3.6
West Oxfordshire
5.6
4.6
1.0
2.6
2.2
0.4
2.9
2.4
Surrey
Elmbridge
7.8
7.0
0.8
3.7
3.4
0.4
4.1
3.7
Epsom and Ewell
4.6
4.4
0.2
2.1
2.0
0.1
2.4
2.3
Guildford
9.8
9.0
0.8
4.8
4.3
0.4
5.0
4.7
Mole Valley
4.5
4.3
0.2
2.2
2.1
0.1
2.4
2.2
Reigate and Banstead
7.6
6.9
0.7
3.6
3.2
0.3
4.1
3.7
Runnymede
5.6
5.6
0.0
2.6
2.6
0.0
3.0
3.0
Spelthorne
4.6
4.6
0.0
2.2
2.3
0.0
2.3
2.3
Surrey Heath
5.1
4.8
0.3
2.4
2.3
0.1
2.7
2.6
Tandridge
4.9
4.6
0.4
2.3
2.2
0.1
2.6
2.4
Waverley
7.9
7.5
0.4
3.8
3.7
0.2
4.1
3.9
Woking
5.4
5.3
0.1
2.6
2.5
0.1
2.8
2.7
West Sussex
Adur
3.6
2.9
0.7
1.8
1.4
0.4
1.8
1.5
Arun
7.4
5.8
1.6
3.6
2.7
0.9
3.8
3.1
Chichester
6.8
5.8
1.0
3.2
2.7
0.5
3.6
3.1
Crawley
3.9
5.1
-1.2
1.9
2.5
-0.5
1.9
2.6
Horsham
6.7
5.6
1.0
3.2
2.7
0.5
3.5
2.9
Mid Sussex
6.6
6.1
0.5
3.2
3.0
0.2
3.4
3.1
Worthing
5.3
4.5
0.7
2.5
2.2
0.4
2.7
2.4
SOUTH WEST
134.0
107.1
26.9
64.7
51.2
13.5
69.4
55.9
Bath and North East Somerset UA
9.9
10.0
-0.1
4.7
4.7
0.1
5.2
5.4
Bournemouth UA
11.7
11.4
0.2
5.8
5.7
0.1
5.9
5.7
Bristol, City of UA
23.1
23.8
-0.7
11.2
11.4
-0.2
11.8
12.4
North Somerset UA
9.7
6.9
2.8
4.8
3.4
1.4
4.9
3.4
Plymouth UA
10.5
10.2
0.2
5.0
5.2
-0.1
5.4
5.1
Poole UA
8.3
7.4
0.8
4.0
3.6
0.4
4.2
3.8
South Gloucestershire UA
10.7
10.8
-0.1
5.2
5.3
-0.1
5.5
5.5
Swindon UA
6.9
6.0
0.9
3.5
3.1
0.4
3.4
2.9
Torbay UA
6.4
5.7
0.7
3.2
2.9
0.3
3.2
2.8
Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly
Caradon
4.5
3.4
1.1
2.1
1.6
0.5
2.4
1.8
Carrick
5.9
4.9
1.0
2.8
2.3
0.5
3.1
2.6
Kerrier
5.0
3.8
1.2
2.4
1.8
0.6
2.6
2.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
80
Net
In
Out
Net
In
Females
Out
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
Out
Males
-0.1
0.6
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.5
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.2
-0.1
-0.7
-0.2
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.7
0.5
-0.7
0.5
0.3
0.4
13.5
-0.1
0.1
-0.5
1.4
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.6
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1
continued
Autumn 2007
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England and Wales,
gross and net flows, by sex, mid-2005 to mid-2006
England, Wales, Government Office Regions, local authorities Thousands
Area
Persons
In
Out
Net
Males
In
Out
Net
In
Females
Out
Net
North Cornwall
4.5
3.7
0.8
2.2
1.8
0.4
2.3
1.9
0.4
Penwith
2.9
2.5
0.4
1.5
1.2
0.2
1.5
1.3
0.2
Restormel
5.4
4.5
0.8
2.6
2.2
0.4
2.7
2.3
0.4
Isles of Scilly
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
Devon
East Devon
7.2
5.6
1.6
3.4
2.5
0.8
3.9
3.1
0.8
Exeter
8.3
7.6
0.6
3.9
3.5
0.4
4.3
4.1
0.2
Mid Devon
4.0
3.4
0.6
2.0
1.6
0.3
2.1
1.8
0.3
North Devon
4.3
3.7
0.6
2.1
1.8
0.3
2.1
1.9
0.2
South Hams
5.2
4.4
0.7
2.4
2.1
0.3
2.8
2.3
0.4
Teignbridge
6.2
5.4
0.8
3.0
2.5
0.5
3.2
2.9
0.3
Torridge
3.6
2.6
1.0
1.8
1.3
0.5
1.8
1.3
0.5
West Devon
3.1
2.6
0.5
1.5
1.3
0.2
1.6
1.3
0.3
Dorset
Christchurch
3.0
2.4
0.6
1.4
1.1
0.3
1.5
1.3
0.3
East Dorset
5.1
4.5
0.6
2.5
2.1
0.4
2.6
2.3
0.2
North Dorset
4.6
3.7
1.0
2.2
1.7
0.5
2.5
2.0
0.5
Purbeck
2.5
2.1
0.4
1.2
1.0
0.2
1.3
1.1
0.2
West Dorset
6.3
5.0
1.3
3.0
2.4
0.6
3.3
2.6
0.6
Weymouth and Portland
3.3
3.0
0.4
1.7
1.4
0.3
1.6
1.5
0.1
Gloucestershire
Cheltenham
6.8
6.5
0.3
3.2
3.0
0.1
3.6
3.5
0.1
Cotswold
5.0
4.5
0.4
2.4
2.2
0.2
2.6
2.4
0.2
Forest of Dean
3.6
3.4
0.2
1.7
1.6
0.1
1.9
1.9
0.0
Gloucester
5.4
5.1
0.3
2.6
2.5
0.1
2.8
2.6
0.2
Stroud
4.8
4.5
0.3
2.3
2.2
0.1
2.5
2.3
0.2
Tewkesbury
4.8
4.3
0.5
2.3
2.0
0.2
2.6
2.3
0.3
Somerset
Mendip
5.1
4.9
0.3
2.5
2.5
0.0
2.6
2.4
0.2
Sedgemoor
5.1
4.3
0.9
2.5
2.1
0.4
2.6
2.2
0.4
South Somerset
6.7
6.1
0.6
3.2
2.8
0.3
3.5
3.3
0.2
Taunton Deane
5.1
4.7
0.4
2.4
2.2
0.2
2.7
2.4
0.2
West Somerset
2.0
1.9
0.2
1.0
0.9
0.1
1.0
0.9
0.1
Wiltshire
Kennet
4.7
4.0
0.7
2.2
1.8
0.3
2.5
2.1
0.4
North Wiltshire
6.9
6.2
0.7
3.2
2.9
0.3
3.7
3.3
0.4
Salisbury
5.3
5.1
0.2
2.4
2.4
0.0
2.9
2.7
0.2
West Wiltshire
5.3
4.9
0.4
2.5
2.3
0.2
2.8
2.6
0.2
WALES
55.8
49.2
6.6
27.1
23.7
3.4
28.8
25.5
3.2
Blaenau Gwent
1.6
1.3
0.3
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.8
0.7
0.1
Bridgend
3.8
3.0
0.8
1.9
1.5
0.4
2.0
1.5
0.4
Caerphilly
4.0
3.8
0.1
1.9
1.9
0.0
2.0
1.9
0.1
Cardiff
15.1
15.5
-0.4
7.0
7.2
-0.2
8.0
8.3
-0.2
Carmarthenshire
5.9
4.7
1.3
2.8
2.3
0.6
3.1
2.4
0.7
Ceredigion
5.0
4.9
0.1
2.4
2.3
0.1
2.6
2.6
0.0
Conwy
4.5
3.9
0.6
2.2
1.9
0.3
2.3
2.0
0.3
Denbighshire
4.3
3.8
0.5
2.1
1.9
0.2
2.2
1.9
0.3
Flintshire
4.2
4.5
-0.3
2.1
2.1
0.0
2.1
2.4
-0.3
Gwynedd
4.8
4.5
0.3
2.3
2.1
0.2
2.5
2.4
0.1
Isle of Anglesey
2.2
1.9
0.2
1.0
1.0
0.1
1.1
1.0
0.2
Merthyr Tydfil
1.1
1.3
-0.1
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.6
0.6
-0.1
Monmouthshire
3.9
3.8
0.1
1.9
1.8
0.1
2.0
2.0
0.0
Neath Port Talbot
3.7
3.2
0.5
1.9
1.6
0.3
1.9
1.6
0.2
Newport
4.6
4.7
-0.1
2.3
2.3
0.0
2.3
2.4
-0.1
Pembrokeshire
3.9
3.3
0.6
1.9
1.6
0.3
2.0
1.7
0.3
Powys
5.3
4.4
0.8
2.6
2.1
0.4
2.7
2.3
0.4
Rhondda, Cynon, Taff
5.3
5.2
0.1
2.5
2.5
0.0
2.7
2.7
0.1
Swansea
7.3
7.2
0.2
3.6
3.4
0.2
3.7
3.7
0.0
Torfaen
2.1
2.2
-0.1
1.0
1.1
-0.1
1.1
1.1
0.0
The Vale of Glamorgan
4.9
4.2
0.7
2.3
2.0
0.3
2.6
2.2
0.4
Wrexham
3.5
3.2
0.3
1.7
1.6
0.1
1.8
1.7
0.2
* Based on patient register data and patient re-registration recorded in the NHSCR.
Note: Bold figures exclude moves between local authorities within each Government Office Region.
81
National Statistics
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 2
Autumn 2007
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and Health Authorities in England
and Former Health Authorities in Wales, gross and net flows, by sex, mid-2005 to mid-2006
Government Office Regions, and health authorities Thousands
Area
Persons
In
Out
Net
Males
In
Out
Net
In
Females
Out
Net
NORTH EAST
39.8
38.7
1.1
19.6
18.7
0.9
20.2
20.0
0.2
County Durham and Tees Valley
23.8
22.8
1.1
11.9
10.9
1.0
11.9
11.9
0.1
Northumberland, Tyne & Wear
26.3
26.3
0.0
12.7
12.8
-0.1
13.6
13.5
0.1
NORTH WEST
100.9
103.5
-2.6
49.1
49.9
-0.8
51.8
53.5
-1.7
Cheshire & Merseyside
46.4
47.2
-0.8
22.1
22.5
-0.4
24.3
24.7
-0.4
Cumbria and Lancashire
45.3
42.0
3.3
22.3
20.4
1.9
22.9
21.6
1.4
Greater Manchester
52.8
57.3
-4.5
25.7
27.8
-2.1
27.1
29.5
-2.4
YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER
93.0
92.4
0.6
44.6
44.2
0.4
48.4
48.2
0.2
North and East Yorkshire and Northern Lincolnshire
45.2
41.5
3.7
21.8
19.9
2.0
23.4
21.6
1.8
South Yorkshire
29.4
30.2
-0.8
14.4
14.6
-0.3
15.0
15.5
-0.5
West Yorkshire
48.0
50.4
-2.3
22.9
24.1
-1.3
25.2
26.2
-1.1
EAST MIDLANDS
107.8
98.3
9.5
52.0
47.8
4.3
55.7
50.5
5.2
Leicestershire, Northamptonshire and Rutland
49.7
47.3
2.5
24.2
23.2
1.0
25.6
24.1
1.5
Trent
69.4
63.0
6.5
33.5
30.4
3.1
36.0
32.6
3.4
WEST MIDLANDS
93.2
99.9
-6.7
44.7
48.2
-3.5
48.5
51.7
-3.2
Birmingham and the Black Country
44.2
55.7
-11.4
21.0
27.1
-6.0
23.2
28.6
-5.4
Shropshire and Staffordshire
38.9
36.7
2.2
18.9
18.1
0.8
20.0
18.6
1.4
West Midlands South
46.9
44.4
2.5
22.8
21.0
1.8
24.1
23.3
0.7
EAST
140.5
124.4
16.0
67.8
59.7
8.1
72.7
64.8
7.9
Bedfordshire and Hertfordshire
56.3
55.7
0.6
27.2
26.7
0.5
29.1
29.0
0.1
Essex
49.5
42.7
6.8
23.8
20.6
3.2
25.8
22.1
3.6
Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire
64.1
55.4
8.6
31.0
26.6
4.4
33.1
28.9
4.2
LONDON
163.1
243.7
-80.6
77.6
117.6
-40.0
85.5
126.1
-40.6
North Central London
60.4
71.8
-11.4
27.6
33.4
-5.8
32.8
38.3
-5.6
North East London
54.3
75.2
-20.8
25.8
36.6
-10.8
28.6
38.6
-10.0
North West London
72.1
98.3
-26.2
33.7
45.8
-12.1
38.4
52.5
-14.0
South East London
65.0
80.2
-15.2
30.2
37.5
-7.3
34.8
42.7
-7.9
South West London
69.2
76.2
-7.1
31.5
35.5
-4.0
37.7
40.8
-3.1
SOUTH EAST
219.6
200.2
19.4
105.4
96.5
8.9
114.2
103.7
10.5
Hampshire and Isle of Wight
60.3
56.4
3.9
29.0
27.3
1.7
31.3
29.1
2.2
Kent and Medway
47.4
41.9
5.5
22.8
20.2
2.5
24.7
21.7
3.0
Surrey and Sussex
94.1
82.5
11.6
45.1
39.4
5.7
49.0
43.1
5.9
Thames Valley
82.7
84.3
-1.7
39.9
40.9
-1.0
42.8
43.4
-0.6
SOUTH WEST
134.0
107.1
26.9
64.7
51.2
13.5
69.4
55.9
13.5
Avon, Gloucestershire and Wiltshire
70.7
64.0
6.7
33.7
30.5
3.2
36.9
33.5
3.5
Dorset and Somerset
44.6
37.1
7.5
21.8
17.9
3.9
22.8
19.2
3.6
South West Peninsula
53.5
40.8
12.7
25.9
19.6
6.3
27.5
21.1
6.4
WALES
55.8
49.2
6.6
27.1
23.7
3.4
28.8
25.5
3.2
North Wales
16.7
15.1
1.7
8.1
7.3
0.8
8.6
7.8
0.8
Dyfed Powys
17.4
14.6
2.8
8.5
7.1
1.4
8.9
7.5
1.4
Morgannwg
12.1
10.6
1.5
5.9
5.1
0.8
6.2
5.5
0.7
Bro Taf
20.3
20.1
0.3
9.6
9.5
0.1
10.8
10.6
0.1
Gwent
11.3
11.0
0.4
5.6
5.4
0.2
5.7
5.6
0.2
Note: Bold figures exclude moves between health authorities within each Government Office Region.
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
82
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
Report:
2006-based national
population projections:
underlying long-term
assumptions
Introduction
The Office for National Statistics (ONS)’s next set of national population
projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries is due
to be published on 23 October 2007, accompanied by an ONS ‘First
Release.’ Summary results from the projections will be available from
the National Statistics website, but detailed results will initially only be
available from the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) website (in
downloadable ExcelTM files).1 There will also be separate Press Releases
from the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) and the Northern
Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). An article describing
the results of the new projections will appear in the spring 2008 issue of
Table A
Population Trends and a reference volume in the ONS PP2 series will
follow later in 2008. The projections will be based on the official ONS,
GROS and NISRA estimates of the population at the middle of 2006.
Long-term assumptions
The new projections will be based on the long-term assumptions of future
fertility, mortality and net migration (that is, immigrants less emigrants)
shown in Table A. These have been agreed in consultation with GROS,
NISRA and the Welsh Assembly Government Statistical Directorate.
Comparisons are given with the assumptions made for the previous 2004based projections.
Long-term assumptions for the 2006-based national population projections compared with assumptions for the 2004-based
projections
United Kingdom
England
Wales
Scotland
Fertility – Long-term average number of children per woman 2006-based
1.84
1.85
1.85
1.65
2004-based
1.74
1.75
1.75
1.60
Mortality - Expectation of life at birth in 20311
Males
2006-based
82.7p
83.0p
82.5p
80.5p
2004-based
81.4 81.6
81.1
79.2
Females
2006-based
86.2p
86.4p
86.0p
84.9p
2004-based
85.0
85.2
84.8
83.7
Net migration2 – Annual long-term assumption
2006-based
+190,000
+171,500
+9,500
+8,500
2004-based
+145,000
+130,000
+11,500
+4,000
Northern
Ireland
1.95
1.80
82.3p
81.0
86.1p
84.9
+500
-500
1. Expectations of life for 25 years ahead given as specimen year. Note these are period expectations of life based on the mortality rates assumed for the year 2031 and do not take account
of the continuing improvement in mortality projected beyond 2031 (see main text). Cohort life expectancies in the 2006-based projections, allowing for the assumed further mortality
improvement, will be about 8.7 years higher for a boy born in the UK in 2031 and about 8.0 years higher for a girl born in 2031 than the period figures shown in the table.
2. Net migration includes international migration and cross-border migration between the countries of the UK.
p Provisional.
83
National Statistics
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
The long-term assumption of average family size has been raised for the
UK to 1.84 children per woman, an increase of 0.10 compared with the
2004-based projections. The long-term UK fertility assumption in official
national projections has been lowered on a number of occasions since the
1960s baby boom,2 but this is the first time it has been increased during
that period. This follows several years of increasing fertility rates in all
four countries of the UK.
Projected period life expectancies at birth for the year 2031 are around
1.3 years higher than in the previous projections for males and 1.2 years
higher for females. This is largely a result of greater than expected falls
in mortality over the last two years which have led to higher assumptions
of future mortality improvement particularly in the short-term. But there
is also a change to assumptions of long-term rates of improvement. The
new projections will assume that annual rates of mortality improvement
will converge to a common rate of 1.0 per cent a year at 2031 for most
ages, and continue to improve at that constant rate thereafter. However,
it will now be assumed that those born in the years 1923 to 1940 (cohorts
which have consistently experienced relatively high rates of mortality
improvement over the last 25 years) will continue to experience higher
rates of mortality improvement, with assumed rates of improvement in
and after 2031 rising from 1.0 per cent a year for those born before 1923
to a peak of 2.5 per cent a year for those born in 1931 and then declining
back to 1.0 per cent a year for those born in 1941 or later. In the 2004based projections it was assumed that these cohort differentials would
disappear over time with a common rate of improvement of 1.0 per cent
assumed at all ages by 2029.
The new long-term assumption for net migration to the United Kingdom
is +190,000 each year compared with +145,000 a year in the previous
projections. This increase is partly due to taking account of data for two
new years (2004 and 2005) where net migration to the UK has been
at record levels, and partly because of the impact of methodological
changes following recent announcements of improvements to the
estimation of international migration.3 (International migration estimates
for 2006, which are scheduled for publication on 15 November 2007,
will also take account of these changes. Revised figures for earlier years
will be published on the same date.) These methodological improvements
also affect the assumed distribution of international migration between
the countries of the UK. Changes to the migration assumptions for the
individual countries also reflect recent trends in cross-border migration
between the four countries. Migration assumptions for the initial few
years of the new projections are still to be finalised and may differ from
the long-term figures shown in Table A.
More details of the underlying assumptions will be given on the National
Statistics and GAD websites on 23 October.
Variant projections
In addition to the principal (or central) population projections, ONS
will also be producing an extensive set of variant projections based on
alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration. The
approach will follow that used for the 2004-based projections where
nineteen different variant projections were carried out for each country.4
Full results will be placed on the GAD website. The key variants (the
standard single component variants for fertility, mortality and migration
and the zero net migration variant) will be published with the principal
projections on 23 October, with all remaining variants published by the
end of November 2007.
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
84
Notes
1. This will be the first set of national projections since responsibility
for this work transferred from GAD to ONS in January 2006 (see
Population Trends 123, page 4). It is planned that the detailed
projection results will be added to the National Statistics website
during 2008.
2. See Population Trends 128, page 13.
3. See www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14834
4. See www.gad.gov.uk/Population/2004/methodology/varlist.htm
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
Report:
ONS strategy for
improving migration and
population statistics
Introduction
This report provides a summary of the work that the Office for National
Statistics (ONS) has recently done to improve the estimation of migration
within local population estimates. By setting the ONS improvement
work in the wider context in which it is being conducted, the report also
provides an overview of the strategy for planning the work to develop
and improve population and migration statistics.
It is increasingly important to have high quality statistics on migration
and the population, for policy development and for planning and
providing public services. Achieving this aim is challenging in the
context of increasingly complex lifestyles and changes in migration to
and from the UK over the last decade. ONS is undertaking a substantial
and long-term programme of work to improve the population statistics it
produces. The aim of this work is to improve the quality of migration and
population statistics so as to minimise the risk of divergence between the
2011 Census population estimates and those based on the 2001 Census.
Recognising that differences between two sets of estimates are inevitable,
a key part of the aim of the improvement work is also to provide a better
understanding of the differences that remain. This work has highlighted
several improvements to methodology that can be made immediately.
These will principally impact on the distribution of the national
population to local areas.
The importance of migration and population
statistics
Information about the population is critical to developing and monitoring
economic and fiscal policy, planning and monitoring service provision
and allocating resources as well as for understanding social change.
In recent years, migration (that is, individuals changing their usual
residence) has been a major driver of population change in the UK.1
As well as affecting population numbers and structures (for example,
age distributions), it can have a profound effect on economic and social
policy and service delivery. In these circumstances relevant, accurate and
timely population statistics are particularly necessary – to support the
development and monitoring of new policies, plan and resource delivery,
and describe the social change that is taking place.
Population estimates and projections, which make use of migration
estimates, are separately used for planning, resource allocation, business
decisions and a broad range of public policy purposes. They provide
essential contextual information, for in-depth research and analysis.
They are used as denominators to convert numbers to rates for key
demographic measures such as dependency ratios (the ratio of the
dependent population to the working population) or key economic
indicators such as unemployment rates.
It has become increasingly important for policy makers to be well
informed about migration in the context of increased flows into and out
of the UK. The need for this information is both to monitor the patterns
and trends in the flow of migrants and to respond to changes in the
position and impact of migrants within society and the economy.
The challenges in making accurate estimates
The December 2006 report of the inter-departmental Task Force into
improving international migration statistics outlined in some detail the
importance of migration statistics on the one hand and the reasons why,
on the other hand, it is difficult to make accurate estimates of migration.2
Meeting the need for population statistics, following recent changes
in the magnitude and dynamics of migration, has proved difficult.
International migration can often be a very complex process. It can
involve multiple decisions, made at different stages in the process of
changing residence, both by the individuals concerned and as well as
by others (for example, employers and those involved in immigration
control) (Figure 1). This has made it difficult to adopt a single
measurement tool that meets all needs.
There are limitations to existing sources:
no systematic register exists of all people entering or leaving the
country
l
85
National Statistics
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Timeline showing the relation between information sources and key migration events
Sources
of
information
Applications
for entry
Leave Arrive in
country
UK
of origin
→
Initial
temporary
address(es)
First
Subsequent
resident
addresses
address
population and migration statistics are currently based solely on the
UN definition of a long-term migrant (a person who migrates for over
12 months, see Box One)
l limited data are available to separately identify short-term migrants
(3–12 months) or seasonal workers and even fewer statistics are
routinely published about these groups
l information on intended length of stay collected at ports (for example,
on the International Passenger Survey) may differ from that obtained
in-country
l administrative registers (for example, NHS patient registers) only
collect residence information on migrants once they have registered
(by which time they may have moved address several times). No
information on intended stay is recorded and actual duration in the
country is not well documented. These factors make it difficult to
estimate geographic distributions of international migrants or to link
length of stay to employment patterns.
l most administrative sources that identify new arrivals in the
country (for example, Worker Registration Scheme) or record place
of residence for all those registered (for example, NHS and NI
registration), have little or no direct information on emigration
l at present, the only reliable source of information on emigration is the
International Passenger Survey. The number of emigrants interviewed
in this survey each year is relatively small
The exclusion of short-term migrants from these figures has, additionally,
raised concerns about the relevance of the current range of available
population statistics. The numbers of short-term migrants present at any
time impacts significantly on society and the economy.
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
86
Arrive in
country of
destination
Box one
United Nations definition of migrants
Long-term international migrant
The United Nations recommended definition of a long-term international
migrant is:
A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her
usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so
that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new
country of usual residence. From the perspective of the country of
departure the person will be a long-term emigrant and from that of
the country of arrival the person will be a long-term immigrant.
This 12-month migrant definition is used for the UK usually resident
population estimate series.
Short-term international migrant
The United Nations recommended definition of a short-term international
migrant is:
A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her
usual residence for a period of at least three months but less than
a year (12 months), except in cases where the movement to that
country is for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits to friends and
relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage. For
purposes of international migration statistics, the country of usual
residence of short-term migrants is considered to be the country of
destination during the period they spend in it.
‘There is now a broad recognition that available estimates of migrant
numbers are inadequate to meet all the purposes for which they are
now required. They are the weakest component in population... much
more difficult to measure accurately than births and deaths, the other
major components of population change.’ Karen Dunnell, National
Statistician, December 2006.3
In order to meet these challenges, ONS is undertaking a substantial
population statistics development programme in order to improve
migration and population estimates.4 This project was set up initially
in the light of the experience post the 2001 Census. When population
estimates first became available from the 2001 Census they were
substantially lower than those rolled forward from the previous Census
(a gap of 1.1 million). Several revisions were made to the population
estimates, in the period 2002 to 2004, as a result of work to reconcile
the differences. A key aim of the population statistics development work
is to avoid that experience when the first population estimates become
available from the 2011 Census.
Final
Temporary
Depart
resident
address(es)
from UK
UK address
→
Length of stay
l
Improving migration and population statistics
Port surveys,
travel documnets
→
→
Key migration
events
→
→
Timeline
Port surveys,
Registers,
travel documents,
population censuses
landing cards,
and surveys
leave to enter
→
Figure 1
Autumn 2007
UK population estimates do not currently include short-term in-migrants
as usually resident in the UK, nor do they exclude short-term outmigrants from the usually resident population.
Since 2004, ONS has been reviewing its methodologies, with the key aim
of:
making separate improvements to the rolled forward mid-year
population estimates and the 2011 Census-based population
estimates, so that the risk of divergence between them is minimised
l
providing a better understanding of the differences that remain
between the Census and rolled forward estimates
l
The strands of the population statistics development programme
are, therefore, focussed on the likely causes of divergence between
population estimates. Recognising the importance of migration as a
driver of population change it is unsurprising that a major focus of the
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
development work is on improving migration statistics. The recent Task
Force into improving migration statistics articulated a vision of the
benefits that improved statistics would deliver:
‘The ONS aspiration is to move to a situation where we have timely,
accurate estimates of the number of people coming into, going out of
and present in the country for different durations and reasons (short
and long term residence, seeking refuge, study, etc). Sufficient detail
(for example, geographic breakdowns) would be available to meet
key requirements for population and migration statistics. This would
be accompanied by the capacity to interpret trends and anticipate how
changes and new uses will impact on the requirement for statistics.’
The improved methods mean that:
l
l
l
Bearing in mind the aims of the population statistics development work,
the strands of the programme can be summarised as being to ensure that:
l
l
l
l
l
l
the existing methods and data sources used to produce migration and
population statistics during the intercensal period are of the highest
quality possible
migration and population estimates are based on relevant definitions
that reflect current patterns of migration, for example, to ensure that
new trends and patterns are captured in existing methods and data
sources, such as increased migration flows since EU accession in
2004 and 2007
population estimates from the Census in 2011 are the best estimates
for 2011 and that there is a good understanding of the reasons why
the two estimates may differ
the recommendations of the recent review of international migration
statistics are taken forward. In particular to ensure that best use
is made of the information about migrants that exists across
government and exploiting these sources fully through making
enhanced use of statistical methods in a migration model
methods keep abreast of other potential future sources, for example,
the new enlarged ONS household survey starting in 2008, potential
new immigration sources such as may arise through implementation
of the e-Borders systems and administrative data from the new points
based system.
ONS reporting of migration statistics provides a coherent picture
building on information that exists across government
This report explains how the implementation of improved methods,
that were used for the first time in the compilation of the population
estimates in August 2007, fits into the population statistics development
programme. It also gives insights into the strategy that underlies the
planning of the development work programme.
The implementation of improved methods for
population estimates in 2007
In April 2007 ONS published plans to implement some improvements
this year to the methods used for producing population statistics.5
More specifically, these improvements largely relate to the distribution
of international migrants between different parts of the country within
population estimates. As this report describes, the plans are part of a
much wider ONS programme of improvements to population statistics,
which include developing methods to estimate short-term migration.
The improved methods were incorporated in the first release of mid-2006
population estimates and in revisions to published estimates for mid-2002
to mid-2005 issued in August 2007. Current sub-national population
projections, which are based on the 2004 estimates, were also revised in
September 2007.
Autumn 2007
ONS has added 28,700 to previous population estimates as a result of
improved international migration estimates for England and Wales as
a whole over the four years 2002 to 2005
as a result of the new methods, estimates of population change for
some local areas are also higher than they were previously. However,
because the new methods redistribute international migrants between
local areas, estimates of population change are lower for some local
areas then they were previously
reducing previous estimates of population change for some local
areas is not the same as saying that migration is decreasing in those
areas. For example, the ONS migration estimates published earlier
in 2007 showed that the contribution of long-term international
migration to London's population was 396,000 over the years 2002 to
2005. The new methodology, has reduced this increase by 61,700 to
334,300
By using the main ONS major household survey (the Labour Force
Survey) in combination with the International Passenger Survey (IPS):
l
l
better estimates are available of where migrants go within the
country than estimating based on the IPS alone
this improvement recognises the reality that many migrants say that
they will live in London or another large city when they arrive but
actually settle elsewhere
There are five key elements to the improvement on earlier methods:
l
l
l
l
l
using a combination of IPS and LFS improves the regional
distribution of national international in-migration estimates. (Box
Two show which data are used)
use of a new intermediate geography provides a better basis for
estimation from surveys than the previous intermediate geography
(that was based on former health authority boundaries)
a propensity to migrate model is used in estimating the distribution
of out-migrants between local areas within regions. This provides an
improvement on the previous method that distributed out-migrants
on the basis of population size alone
the new methods make use of new evidence to underpin assumptions
about the proportion of people who will change their intentions about
how long they will stay in the destination country (migrant switchers
and visitor switchers)
the new methods incorporate more refined information on age
distributions of international migrants locally
The improved methods being implemented in 2007 relate to usually
resident population of each area and the international migration
component of these figures. For this purpose, the United Nations
recommended definition of a long-term international migrant is used
(a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual
residence for a period of at least a year, see Box One). By adhering to
this definition, the estimates do not take account of people moving for
less than a year.
The release in April set out what the improvements were and what
impact they were expected to have on previously published estimates for
local authorities in England and Wales in the four years of 2002 to 2005.
Following the April release, ONS held meetings with users to discuss the
planned changes. ONS agreed to consider a number of issues and queries
raised in these discussions and report back to users on the conclusions
reached, before publication of the population estimates in August 2007.
A review of the methodological implications of the issues raised by users
was published on 24 July,6 with further clarification and some changes to
the intermediate geography made.
87
National Statistics
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
Box two
Outside London: distributions of in-migrants
Wales/English region level:
IPS + LFS in combination – calibration using one year IPS and three year average LFS
Intermediate level (NMGi):
IPS three year average
LA level:
Census
London: distributions of non-student in-migrants
Wales/English region level:
IPS + LFS in combination using calibration as above
Intermediate level (NMGi):
LFS three year average
LA level:
Census
London: distributions of student in-migrants
Wales/English region level:
IPS + LFS in combination using calibration as above
Intermediate level (NMGi):
N/A
LA level:
Census
Distributions of out-migrants
Wales/English region level:
IPS one year
Intermediate level (NMGo):
IPS three year average
LA level:
Propensity to migrate model
The new method uses geographical distributions of in-migrants
obtained from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) to improve on the regional
information available from the International Passenger Survey (IPS). IPS
information is based on respondents’ stated intended area of residence
on their arrival in the country. However, these intentions may not be
an accurate reflection of where people actually settle. This has affected
the distribution of international in-migrants as measured by the IPS. As
the LFS is a household survey, it measures where migrants are actually
living, and is thus not subject to the same problems as data collected
on intentions in the IPS.
Within London LFS sample size is sufficient to produce robust estimates
at intermediate geography level. Outside London the sample size of
migrants in the LFS is insufficient to permit sub-regional estimates.
Using three years of IPS data, however, does allow estimation at
the intermediate geography level. This makes most use of the IPS
and means that changes in the level of migration can be taken into
account.
additional data on people entering and leaving the UK for periods of less
than 12 months. Some users require population estimates that include
short-term migrants so that estimates of the working population include
those who have migrated to work in the UK for short periods of time.
Others providing services in local areas need to be better informed about
the likely demand from all people using those services, not just the longer
term residents.
Although ONS does produce estimates of visits (lasting less than twelve
months) to/from the UK, these are mainly for tourist reasons.7 They
include all people who come here on holiday for very short stays but not
short stays for work or study. The United Nations definition of a shortterm migrant is broadly defined as moves for work or study for between 3
and 12 months (see Box One).
ONS has begun to look at producing estimates of short-term migration
with the aim of producing initial figures in 2007. A feasibility study was
published in January 2007 which provided illustrative flow estimates
for England and Wales and a description of the challenges faced in
producing further estimates.8 The purpose of that paper was to seek
user feedback and get a clearer view of what data are needed to meet
users’ needs. The feedback ONS received was published in April 2007
detailing in particular views on short-term migration definitions.9 There
was interest from a range of users in extending the UN definition both in
terms of reason for visit and length of stay. A paper on the definition(s)
ONS plan to use for short-term migration estimation is planned for
publication in October 2007. This paper will also provide England and
Wales level short-term migration stock estimates (population present at a
given time) using a method developed by ONS.
Additional research is planned into methods for distributing national
level estimates, based on the IPS, to local authority level. IPS based
short-term migration estimates are not sufficiently robust at local
authority level to use on their own directly at local area level. Further
research will explore the use of migration modelling, for example to
produce local level estimates based on surveys and administrative data
sources used in combination.
New products arising from the work programmes (such as short-term
migration estimates) will be released as they become available. The
use of improvements to sources (such as the increase in IPS sampling
of emigrants from January 2007) will have a progressive impact on
improving the quality and precision of estimates. However a further set
of methodological revisions to existing population estimates will not be
made for at least two years.
Communication and collaborative working
In January 2007 ONS funded extra sampling by the International
Passenger Survey of people leaving the UK. The aim of this increased
funding was to increase the sample size of emigrants identified by the
IPS to similar levels to those achieved for immigrants.
The changes implemented in 2007 make modest improvements by 2008.
They are part of a continuous programme of improvement that is needed
to meet changing requirements from migration and population statistics.
More information about the future work programme is given later in this
report.
New products to improve the relevance of
outputs: Short-term migrants
As previously explained people staying in the UK for periods of less
than one year are not included in UK migration estimates nor hence in
the usually resident population estimates. ONS recognises the need for
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
88
ONS are keen to work collaboratively with other producers of population
statistics and with expert users in local areas. ONS has kept users
regularly informed about the population statistics improvement work.
For example, the research work was discussed with demographic users
at the Central and Local government Information sharing Partnership
(CLIP) population sub-group, where both local and central government
users are represented. ONS reports progress regularly on the National
Statistics website.4 In addition ONS held seminars to explain the
improved methods that were implemented in 2007 and their impact on
the population estimates in advance of their publication in August 2007.
Collaborative work has also been undertaken with local authorities
through the LA Case Studies, to identify promising new sources that may
have potential to improve estimation of local populations. ONS published
the LA Case Study reports between February and June 2007 and held
workshop with LAs to discuss the findings.10 A final report will be issued
towards the end of the year.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
Future work
ONS will continue the programme of work to improve population and
migration statistics. In particular, we will be issuing a document on how
the recommendations of the recent Inter-departmental Task Force on
Migration Statistics are being taken forward. The Task Force identified
an integrated sequence of improvements which is required to capture the
complexity of migration and deliver more timely, integrated migration
statistics. ONS is in discussion with other government departments and
the devolved administrations to identify which of these recommendations
will be taken forward and to what timetable. ONS will shortly be
providing a progress report on this work.
One of the recommendations of the Task Force was to improve targeting
of migrants in a port survey, recognising the importance of port surveys
in providing information about migration. ONS is currently conducting a
review of port surveys and will also be reporting its findings. Improved
information from a port survey would be used in combination with other
sources, such as the new enlarged household survey starting in 2008 and
the 2011 Census.
ONS will continue to feed its statistical requirements into the electronic
borders (e-Borders) programme. The e-Borders programme is designed
to provide increasing levels of information on passenger arrivals and
departures from the end of 2009 onwards, building up to 95 per cent
coverage by the end of 2010 and complete coverage by 2014. An
e-Borders business case will be submitted to the Home Office for review
and decision in autumn 2007. The increased information from e-Borders
is expected to help ONS improve estimation of flows into and out of the
UK. The improvements ONS plan to make between now and 2011 are
expected to yield benefits to further improve estimation of migration at
sub-national levels.
References
1. Population Change website summary updated on 22 August 2007:
www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=950
2. Report of the inter-departmental Task Force into international
migration statistics, issued December 2006: www.statistics.gov.
uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14731
3. Letter from Karen Dunnell to Permanent Secretaries May 2006:
www.statistics.gov.uk/about/other_letters/
4. Updates from the Improving Migration and Population Statistics
project:
www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/methodology/specific/population/
future/imps/updates/default.asp
5. Improved methods for distributing international migration between
local authorities in England and Wales, implemented in August
2007: .www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14834
6. Further information issued in July 2007 about improved methods
for distributing international migration between local authorities in
England and Wales:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14834
7. Office for National Statistics (2005) Travel Trends 2005. TSO:
London. ,
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=1391&More=N
8. Feasibility report on short-term migration: www.statistics.gov.
uk/about/data/methodology/specific/population/future/imps/updates/
downloads/Short-termMigrationFeasibilityReport.pdf
9. Summary of user feedback from the short-term migration feasibility
report. www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/methodology/specific/
population/future/imps/updates/downloads/STM_feedback.pdf
10. Reports of the four Local Authority case studies available through
the Improving Migration and Population Statistics updates page:
www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/methodology/specific/population/
future/imps/updates/default.asp
89
National Statistics
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
Annual Update:
Civil Partnerships during
2005 and 2006: United
Kingdom
Introduction
Rates
This update provides more detailed findings from the Office for National
Statistics (ONS) publication Civil Partnerships 2005 and 2006 published
on 28 June 2007. It presents data and analysis on civil partnerships that
took place in the UK in 2005 and 2006. Particular attention is given to:
Table 2 shows civil partnership rates for 2005 and 2006. Population
estimates by marital status are only available for England and Wales
combined and for Scotland therefore rates can only be calculated for
these countries. The rates are based on the number of people forming a
civil partnership per year as a proportion of the population legally able to
form a civil partnership (the population at risk). Here, the population at
risk is defined as the number of men or women aged 16 and over living
in England and Wales or Scotland, irrespective of sexual preference, who
are currently not married. Ideally, the population at risk should exclude
those that are already in a civil partnership however population estimates
of numbers in civil partnerships are not available. The rates for 2005
have been adjusted to take account of the fact that there were only
11 days in England and Wales, and 12 days in Scotland, on which
couples could register a civil partnership.
●
•
•
•
•
•
number of civil partnerships and rates
civil partnerships by sex
age at formation
area of formation
previous legal partnership status
civil partnership dissolutions
The annual tables are available on the National Statistics website:
www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14675
Number of civil partnerships
The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force on 5 December 2005
in the UK, the first day couples could give notice of their intention to
form a civil partnership. The Act enables same-sex couples aged 16 and
over to obtain legal recognition of their relationship. The first day that
couples could normally form a partnership was 19 December 2005 in
Northern Ireland, 20 December 2005 in Scotland and 21 December 2005
in England and Wales.1
Table 1 shows the number of civil partnerships formed in December
2005 and in 2006 by country and sex. There were 1,953 civil partnerships
formed in the UK in December 2005 and 16,106 in 2006.2 The number of
UK partnerships peaked at 4,869 in the first quarter of 2006 and remained
high in the second and third quarters, but fell to 2,382 in the fourth
quarter.
Up to the end of 2006, the majority of UK civil partnerships were formed
in England (90 per cent) followed by Scotland (6 per cent), Wales (3 per
cent) and Northern Ireland (1 per cent).3 The corresponding proportions
of the adult population residing in these countries were 84 per cent, 9 per
cent, 5 per cent and 3 per cent.4
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
90
In England and Wales, civil partnerships formed in December 2005
equated to an annual rate of 8.1 men per 1,000 unmarried men aged
16 and over, compared with a rate of 3.7 for women. The corresponding
rates in Scotland were 3.5 for men and 1.7 for women.5 In 2006, 1.8 men
and 1.0 women per 1,000 registered a partnership in England and Wales
compared with 1.2 men and 0.8 women in Scotland.
Civil partnerships by sex
Although more men than women formed civil partnerships in the UK in
both December 2005 and in 2006, the difference between the proportion
of male and female partnerships is reducing over time (Figure 1). In
December 2005 and the first quarter of 2006, 66 per cent of all civil
partners were male. By the last quarter of 2006, this proportion decreased
to 57 per cent. In 2006, the difference was greatest in England (61 per
cent male compared with 39 per cent female) and smallest in Wales
(51 per cent male compared with 49 per cent female). In Scotland and
Northern Ireland, men formed 55 per cent of all partnerships.
In December 2005, the largest difference between the proportion of male
and female civil partnerships was in London (79 per cent male) and in
the South West (73 per cent male). The proportion of male partnerships
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Table 1
Autumn 2007
Number of civil partnerships and average age of civil partners by country of formation and sex, 2005–2006
United Kingdom
United Kingdomp
Year
England1
Quarter
Total
Male
Female
Total
Male
2005 Number
Per cent
1,953
100
1,287
66
666
34
1,790
100
Mean age3 Median age3 51.2
50.2
53.9
53.7
46.1
44.1
2006
Number
Per cent
16,106
100
9,648
60
Quarter 1
4,869
100
Quarter 2
Wales1
Scotland1
Female
Total
Male
Female
1,195
67
595
33
67
100
33
49
34
51
84
100
53
63
51.6
50.6
54.0
53.9
46.5
44.4
46.4
46.8
51.3
50.9
41.6
42.3
51.3
50.1
6,458
40
14,383
100
8,718
61
5,665
39
560
100
285
51
275
49
3,198
66
1,671
34
4,418
100
2,913
66
1,505
34
161
100
97
60
4,363
100
2,590
59
1,773
41
3,861
100
2,327
60
1,534
40
151
100
Quarter 3
4,492
100
2,505
56
1,987
44
4,018
100
2,276
57
1,742
43
Quarter 4
2,382
100
1,355
57
1,027
43
2,086
100
1,202
58
45.6
44.3
47.0
45.4
43.6
42.6
45.8
44.4
47.1
45.5
2
Mean age3 Median age3 Total
Male
Northern Ireland1,p
Female
Total
Male
Female
31
37
12
100
6
50
6
50
53.1
54.0
45.4
44.5
37.1
34.6
39.4
35.7
34.7
34.3
1,047
100
580
55
467
45
116
100
65
56
51
44
64
40
259
100
167
64
92
36
31
100
21
68
10
32
80
53
71
47
316
100
168
53
148
47
35
100
15
43
20
57
159
100
65
41
94
59
284
100
145
51
139
49
31
100
19
61
12
39
884
42
89
100
43
48
46
52
188
100
100
53
88
47
19
100
10
53
9
47
43.7
42.7
45.3
44.5
47.9
47.4
42.7
42.2
44.4
43.2
45.6
43.9
43.0
42.3
41.3
40.2
42.7
41.1
39.5
39.5
1 Data are based on country of formation and not country of residence.
2 The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force on 5 December 2005 in the UK.
3 The mean and median ages shown in this table are not standardised and therefore take no account of the structure of the population by age or legal partnership status.
p Figures for Northern Ireland and the UK for 2006 are provisional.
Source: www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14675 Tables 1 and 6
Table 2
Civil partnership rates by country of formation and
sex, 2005–2006
Figure 1
Number of civil partnerships by month of
formation and sex, 2005–2006
England and Wales, Scotland
United Kingdom
England and Wales1
Scotland1
1,600
Year
Quarter
Total
Male
Female
Total
20052
Number of civil
partnerships
1,857 1,228
629
84
53
31
8.1
3.7
2.5
3.5
1.7
2006
Number of civil
partnerships
14,943 9,003
5,940
1,047
580
467
People forming a civil
partnership per 1,000
unmarried population
aged 16 and over
People forming a civil
partnership per 1,000
unmarried population
aged 16 and over3
5.8
1.4
Male
Male Female
1.8
1.0
1.0
1.2
0.8
Quarter 1
4,579 3,010
1.7
2.4
1,569
1.1
259
1.0
167
1.4
92
0.7
Quarter 2
4,012 2,407
1.5
1.9
1,605
1.1
316
1.2
168
1.4
148
1.1
Quarter 3
4,177 2,341
1.5
1.8
1,836
1.3
284
1.1
145
1.2
139
1.0
Quarter 4
2,175 1,245
0.8
1.0
930
0.7
188
0.7
100
0.8
88
0.6
Number of civil partnerships
Female
1,200
800
400
0
Dec Jan
20051
Feb
Mar Apr May Jun Jul
2006P
Month
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov Dec
1 The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force on 5 December 2005 in the UK.
p Figures for Northern Ireland and the UK for 2006 are provisional.
Source: www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14675 Table 1
1 Civil partnership data are based on country of formation, population data are based on
country of residence.
2 The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force on 5 December 2005 in the UK.
Rates for 2005 have been adjusted to reflect that there were only 11 days in England and
Wales and 12 days in Scotland on which couples could register a partnership.
3 Rates for England and Wales for 2006 are based on 2005 marital status estimates.
Source: www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14675 Table 1, www.statistics.gov.
uk/popest, www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/population
91
National Statistics
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
in London continued to remain high during 2006 (more than 70 per cent
each quarter) however by the fourth quarter of 2006, just over half of
all civil partnerships in the South West were male. Yorkshire and The
Humber and the East Midlands were the only regions where more women
than men registered a partnership up to the end of 2006.
Age at formation
Figure 2 shows the age distribution of men and women registering
civil partnerships in the UK in December 2005 and in 2006. Male civil
partners were older than female civil partners. The average (mean) age at
formation in the UK in December 2005 was 53.9 years for men and
46.1 years for women.6 In 2006, the average age was 47.0 for men and
43.6 for women.
The age distribution of men forming partnerships has changed over time
(Figure 3). In December 2005 and the first quarter of 2006, over half of
men forming partnerships in the UK were aged 50 and over. By the last
quarter of 2006, this proportion had decreased to less than a third. By
contrast, the proportion of male partners aged less than 35 has gradually
increased. The age distribution among women forming partnerships has
been more consistent over time.
The average age of all partners in 2006 was highest in England
(45.8 years) and lowest in Northern Ireland (41.3 years). In Wales and
Scotland, the average ages were 45.3 and 44.4 years. In 2006, in England
and Wales, the average (mean) age gap between male partners was
8.3 years compared with 5.9 years for female partners.
Figure 2
Men forming a partnership in the South West in 2006 were older than
men forming partnerships in other regions. Almost half (47 per cent) of
all male partners in the South West were aged 50 and over compared
with 38 per cent in the UK as a whole. More than a quarter (26 per cent)
of all male partners in Northern Ireland were aged less than 35.
Women forming a partnership in Northern Ireland and the North East in
2006 were younger than women forming partnerships in other regions.
More than three in ten women (35 per cent in Northern Ireland and
31 per cent in the North East) were aged less than 35 compared with
24 per cent in the UK as a whole. Only 12 per cent of women registering
a partnership in Northern Ireland in 2006 were aged 50 and over.
Area of formation
London was, by far, the most popular region within the UK for men to
register a partnership in December 2005 and in 2006. Almost one-third
(32 per cent) of all male civil partners registered a partnership in London
in 2006 whereas the region accounts for only 13 per cent of the resident
UK adult male population (Table 3). With 17 per cent of all male civil
partnerships, the South East was the second most popular region and
also the only other region in the UK, where in 2006, a greater proportion
of men formed a partnership compared with the resident adult male
population.
The number of women forming partnerships was more representative
of the resident adult female population within each region. The South
East and London accounted together for almost a third (32 per cent) of
all female partnerships in 2006 compared with 26 per cent of the adult
female population.
Number of civil partners by age group and sex, 2005 and 2006
United Kingdom
December 20051
2006p
400
4000
Men
Men
Women
Number of civil partners
Number of civil partners
300
200
100
0
Women
3000
2000
1000
Under 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80
20
and
over
Age group
1 The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force on 5 December 2005 in the UK.
p Figures for Northern Ireland and the UK for 2006 are provisional.
Source: www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14675 Table 6
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
92
0
Under 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79
20
Age group
80
and
over
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Figure 3
Autumn 2007
Percentage of civil partners within each quarter by age group, 2005–2006
United Kingdom
Women
100
80
80
Percentage of female partners
Percentage of male partners
Men
100
60
40
60
40
20
20
0
0
Dec
20051
Mar
June
2006P
Quarter
Sep
Dec
20051
Dec
50 and over
35-49
Mar
June
2006P
Quarter
Sep
Dec
Under 35
1 The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force on 5 December 2005 in the UK.
p Figures for Northern Ireland and the UK for 2006 are provisional.
Source: www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14675 Table 7
Table 3
Percentages of civil partners and resident adult population by area and sex, 2006
United Kingdom
Countries, Government Office Regions
(within England)
United Kingdomp
England
North East North West Yorkshire and The Humber
East Midlands West Midlands East
London South East South West Wales
Scotland
Northern Irelandp
Total civil partners1
Total population aged 16 and over2
Male civil partners1
Male population aged 16 and over2
Female civil
partners1
Female population
aged 16 and over2
100
100
100
100
100
100
89
3
10
7
84
4
11
8
90
2
9
6
84
4
11
8
88
3
11
9
84
4
11
8
5
6
7
7
9
9
4
5
7
7
9
9
7
7
8
7
9
9
25
17
9
12
14
9
32
17
9
13
14
9
15
17
10
12
14
9
3
7
1
5
9
3
3
6
1
5
8
3
4
7
1
5
9
3
1 Civil partnership data are based on area of formation and not area of residence.
2 Population data used to calculate percentages in this table were the latest available when these data were compiled: mid-year 2005 population estimates for the resident population of the
UK.
p Civil partnership figures for Northern Ireland and the UK for 2006 are provisional.
Source: www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14675 Table 3, www.statistics.gov.uk/popest
93
National Statistics
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Figure 4
Autumn 2007
Proportion of civil partnerships by previous legal partnership status of both partners, 2006
United Kingdomp
Male
Female
Both single1
One single1, One previously
in a legal partnership2
Both previously in a legal
partnership2
1 Single men and women are those who have never married or never formed a civil partnership.
2 Men and women who were previously in a legal partnership are those whose former marriage or civil partnership has been terminated either by dissolution or
annulment or by the death of the spouse or civil partner.
p Figures for Northern Ireland and the UK for 2006 are provisional.
Source: www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14675 Table 10
Previous legal partnership status
The previous status of a civil partner is defined as their legal marital or
civil partnership status prior to giving notice of intention to form a civil
partnership. A person wishing to register a civil partnership in the UK
must either be single (never married or never formed a civil partnership)
or have previously been in a legal partnership which has been terminated
either by dissolution or annulment or by the death of the spouse or civil
partner.
Up to the end of 2006, one in ten men forming a civil partnership in the
UK had previously been in a legal partnership compared with just under
a quarter (24 per cent) of women. Almost all of these men and women
had previously been married. To obtain a civil partnership dissolution in
the UK, a couple must have been in either a registered civil partnership
or recognised foreign relationship for twelve months. As registered civil
partnerships have only been in existence in the UK since December
2005, only six people entering a partnership in the UK up to the end of
2006 had previously been in a civil partnership, all of which were formed
abroad.7 Less than one per cent of all people forming a partnership up to
the end of 2006 were widowed.8
In December 2005 and in 2006, a higher proportion of civil partners in
Wales (21 per cent in 2006) had previously been in a legal partnership
compared with the other countries of the UK. Only 12 per cent of people
registering a partnership in Northern Ireland in 2006 had previously been
in a legal partnership. In England and Scotland, the proportion was
15 per cent.
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
94
The age distributions of men forming a partnership in the UK in
December 2005 were similar between single men and those who had
previously been in a legal partnership. In 2006, men who had previously
been in a legal partnership were older than those who were single. In
both December 2005 and in 2006, female partners who had previously
been in a legal partnership were older than those who were single.
Widowed people forming a partnership in 2006 were older than those
who had a previous status of partnership dissolved or annulled. Eightyeight per cent of widowed men entering a civil partnership in the UK in
2006 were aged 50 and over compared with 69 per cent of women.
Figure 4 shows that the majority (more than four out of five) of UK male
partnerships formed in 2006 were between two single men. Three out of
five female partnerships were between two single women and almost a
third involved a single woman forming a partnership with a woman who
had previously been in a legal partnership.
Civil partnership dissolutions
As explained earlier, to obtain a civil partnership dissolution in the
UK, a couple must have been in either a registered civil partnership
or recognised foreign relationship for twelve months. ONS, GROS
and NISRA9 have not received any notifications of civil partnership
dissolutions occurring in 2006.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Key findings
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
There were 1,953 civil partnerships formed in the UK in December
2005 and 16,106 in 2006. More than 4,000 partnerships were
formed in each of the first three quarters of 2006. In the last quarter
of 2006, the number fell to 2,382.
Up to the end of 2006, 90 per cent of UK civil partnerships were
formed in England, 6 per cent in Scotland, 3 per cent in Wales and
1 per cent in Northern Ireland.
Civil partnership rates in 2005 and 2006 for England and Wales and
Scotland were higher for men than for women.
The proportion of all UK partnerships that were male decreased from
66 per cent in December 2005 to 57 per cent in the fourth quarter
of 2006.
The average (mean) age of men forming a civil partnership in the
UK in December 2005 was 53.9 years compared with 46.1 years for
women. In 2006, the average age was 47.0 for men and 43.6 for
women.
In 2006, almost a third of all male civil partners registered their
partnership in London whereas the region accounts for only 13 per
cent of the UK adult male population. Almost a third of all female
civil partners in 2006 registered their partnership in the South East
and London.
Up to the end of 2006, 10 per cent of men forming a civil
partnership in the UK had previously been in a legal partnership
compared with 24 per cent of women.
Autumn 2007
Background notes:
1. There were 18 civil partnerships formed under special arrangements
before these dates. These are included in the published figures. All
were in England and Wales.
2. Figures for Northern Ireland and the UK for 2006 are provisional.
The figures relate only to civil partnerships formed in the constituent
countries of the UK. They will include non UK residents who
form a partnership in the UK but do not include civil partnerships
of UK residents taking place abroad. According to the General
Register Office for England and Wales, in 2006 there were 170 civil
partnerships formed by UK nationals in UK consuls abroad.
3. Civil partnership data are based on country of formation and not
country of residence.
4. Population data were the latest available when these data were
compiled and are based on the 2001 Census: mid-year 2005
population estimates for the resident population of the UK were
published on 24 August 2006. Further information on population
estimates can be found on the National Statistics website at: www.
statistics.gov.uk/popest.
5. The population estimates by marital status used to calculate rates in
this Update are the latest available: mid-2005 estimates for England
and Wales were published on 30 November 2006, mid-2005 and
mid-2006 estimates for Scotland were published on 28 July 2006 and
27 July 2007 respectively.
6. The average (mean) ages presented in this Update are not
standardised and therefore take no account of the structure of the
population by age or legal partnership status.
7. Two people in 2005 and four people in 2006 forming a partnership
in England had previously been in a civil partnership formed outside
the UK. None of these previous partnerships had been terminated by
the death of a civil partner.
8. Widowed men and women are those whose former marriage or civil
partnership has been terminated by the death of the spouse or civil
partner.
9. ONS = Office for National Statistics, GROS = General Register
Office for Scotland, NISRA = Northern Ireland Statistics and
Research Agency.
95
National Statistics
Populatio n Tr e n d s 1 2 9
Autumn 2007
Other population and health articles, publications and data
Health Statistics Quarterly 36
Population Trends 130
Publication November 2007
Publication December 2007
Planned
articles:
•
UK national population projections in perspective:
How successful compared to those in other European
countries?
•
Migrants from Central and Eastern Europe: local
geographies
•
Improved methods for population statistics
Forthcoming Annual Reference Volumes
Title
Planned publication
Mortality statistics: general, 2005, DH1 no 38*
October 2007
Birth statistics: general, 2006, FM1 no 35*
December 2007
* Available through the National Statistics website only; www.statistics.gov.uk
Natio n a l S t a t i s t i c s
96
Planned
articles:
•
•
National statistics statement on the UK population
Migration overseas data sources