GEOPOLITICS OF ENERGY
AND ENERGY SECURITY
A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE
Jean-Paul Decaestecker
Council of the European Union
Energy Foresight Symposium 2007
BERGEN, 22-23 March 2007
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The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of the Council
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“ Resolved by …pooling their resources to preserve and strengthen
peace and liberty, and calling upon the other peoples of Europe
who share their ideal to join in their efforts..”
• Where do we stand ?
• Which challenges do we face ?
• Energy policy objectives, values and energy security
principles
• Responses – The three circles
• Actors
• Conclusions
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Geopolitics of energy and energy security - A European perspective
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WHERE DO WE STAND ?
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World energy demand to grow by 50% by 2030, mostly from developing countries
and for fossil fuels (transport for oil, power generation for gas)
Oil and gas will increasingly come from « unstable » suppliers and be concentrated
in a small number of countries, a fact compounded by the control of networks
Conventional reserves for oil, gas, coal and uranium and access to unconventional
ones dispel risk of global supply disruption over the medium term while oil/gas
prices should on average keep rising
The EU is the largest energy importer in absolute terms and imports 50% of its
energy (USA: 30%; Japan: 80%), growing to 70% in 2030 under BaU scenario
The EU relies on a few suppliers (60% of gas from Russia, Norway, Algeria; 80%
of oil from Russia, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Lybia)
Dependency varies widely among Member States and according to energy source
(9 MS are more than 80% dependent, 6 are 30% or less, one is a net exporter)
This diversity and MS sovereignty on fuel-mixes, access to primary resources and
conduct of bilateral energy relationships impact on the formulation of an Energy
Policy for Europe
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WHICH CHALLENGES DO WE FACE ?
• INCREASED DEPENDENCE
• ENERGY PRICES
• ENERGY REVENUES (impact on development and governance)
• WILL UNCONVENTIONAL RESOURCES DELIVER ?.
• STATE DIRIGISME (politics, low investment and inefficiencies)
• TARGETS (critical infrastructures and sea-lanes)
• NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE (non-proliferation and new players)
• RISING GHG EMISSIONS (opportunity or compounding factor ?)
• GAME PLAYING (counter-projects, externalities, diversification race)
 increased uncertainty  diversification routes/suppliers/sources
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Geopolitics of energy and energy security - A European perspective
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ENERGY POLICY OBJECTIVES, VALUES
AND ENERGY SECURITY PRINCIPLES
• The three objectives of the Energy policy for Europe:
Security of supply, Competitiveness, Environmental Sustainability
• Climate change driven (post-2012 GHG targets  energy targets &
priorities with third countries)
• Values (multilateralism vs. unilateralism, solidarity, human rights, access
through the market ..) & Rules (due process, sanctity of contracts,..)
• Energy Security Principles (IEA, G8, bilateral)
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b)
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Legal and regulatory framework for competitive markets and investment
Infrastructure reliable, safe and secure and adequate investment
Diversification  low carbon, energy efficiency, technology deployment
Supporting measures (stocks, Kyoto mechanisms, non-proliferation, ..)
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RESPONSES – THE THREE CIRCLES
• The EU Internal policies (diversification & decarbonisation)
a) Internal market (full opening on 1 July 2007)
b) TransEuropeanNetworks (including LNG terminals)
c) Stocks (oil [in connection with the IEA mechanism]/gas)
d) diversification of domestic sources (energy efficiency, renewables, low
carbon)
e) RD & D  low carbon energy sources & systems (+ transfer & partnerships)
• The EU External policies (dialogue C2C, C2T, C2P & diversification)
a) near abroad (Western Balkans, Euromed, Ukraine, Black Sea & Caspian)
b) beyond the near abroad (Russia, USA, China, India, Brazil…)
c) energy and development (Africa: governance, energy poverty and
contribution to energy supply)
d) which instrument(s) ? One (or more) Energy Security Treaty(ies) ?
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ACTORS
• States vs non-States actors
a) Companies
b) people
• To which camp do they belong ?
a) long term interdependence
b) joint venture & downstream investment
c) regional contexts
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CONCLUSIONS
Glimmers of hope: growing recognition of principles, growing
acknowledgment of investment gap, more commitment to energy efficiency
A EPE based on the three D’s decarbonisation/diversification/dialogue
contribute to the energy security and climate objectives
More understanding and trust, more joint projects as a means to engage,
more consistency and solidarity between MS within the EU and Energy
partners worldwide – Interdependence can be mutually beneficial as long as
consulted moves on all sides
Some may consider this approach as naïve; may they consider this sentence
of J.J.Rousseau: “The strongest is never strong enough to be always the
master, unless he transforms strength into right, and obedience into duty.”
This should be our guidance: less raw power games, more trust; less
conflicts and a wider application of the law as precondition to long term,
collective energy security
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