Lecture 2 Production, Economic Costs, Economic Profits 1 Overview Goal of this section: to understand the supply decisions of firms Firms take inputs and transform them into outputs Firms’ use of scarce inputs causes them to incur costs Firms’ sale of their outputs generates revenues Firms’ challenge is to choose outputs that maximize profits Related to that challenge is to employ inputs so as to minimize the cost of producing the chosen outputs This requires us to understand production theory, cost theory, and the concept of economic profits Types of production decisions managers make Imagine yourself the owner/manager of a fast-food restaurant in Monastiraki. You get a phone call asking you if you can accommodate three busloads of senior citizens for lunch tomorrow at 12:30 p.m. This would at least double your usual rate of output during the lunch rush. How would you vary your use of inputs to accomplish this? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xedkk1xvgeo ; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXrgYbT_0sA Alternatively, you read in the paper that Greece is expanding the size of the Piraeus port to allow more cruise ships to dock. You anticipate this will add 40% or more to your daily output. How would you vary your use of inputs to accommodate this increase in demand? http://discoverarbys.com/blog/arbys-restaurant-design-smart-inviting/ Production Function The Production Function indicates the highest output that a firm can produce for every specified combination of inputs given the state of technology. Shows what is technically feasible when the firm operates efficiently. Want the production function general enough to describe what Boeing does as well as what Microsoft does. 4 Production Function The production function for two inputs: Q = F(K,L) Q = Output, K = Capital, L = Labor For a given technology. – Change technology and get a different F(). Just a way of expressing how inputs are combined to make outputs. 5 Production Function Example of different technology – Use a standard drill to extract oil from the ground or extract oil using hydraulic fracturing Different technology but the output is the same—oil 6 Production Function Observations: 1) For any level of K, output increases with more L. 2) For any level of L, output increases with more K. 3) Various combinations of inputs produce the same output. 7 Short-run production relationships Short run: different inputs can be varied over different time horizons. Depending on the time horizon over which the firm wants to vary output, it may not be able to alter the amounts of all inputs. The short run is a time period so short that the firm is unable to alter the amounts of all inputs. Fixed inputs cannot be varied over the production time period. Variable inputs can be varied over the production time period. Short-run production function: Q = f(L, Ǩ). Capital is fixed but labor can be varied, so increases in output can only be achieved by adding more labor to the fixed amount of capital. In your fast-food restaurant, what inputs are fixed and what inputs are variable over a 24-hour time horizon? Can you think of a production process where L is the least variable input (i.e. fixed)? (hint: think UK) Consider production in the short-run with one variable input (Labor) Amount of Labor (L) Amount Total of Capital (K) Output (Q) Average Product Marginal Product 0 10 0 --- --- 1 10 10 10 10 2 10 30 15 20 3 10 60 20 30 4 10 80 20 20 5 10 95 19 15 6 10 108 18 13 7 10 112 16 4 8 10 112 14 0 9 10 108 12 -4 10 10 100 10 -8 9 Production with one variable input (Labor) With additional workers output (Q) initially increases, reaches a maximum, and then decreases. The average product of labor (AP), or output per worker, increases and then decreases. Output Q AP = = Labor Input L 10 Production with one variable input (Labor) The marginal product of labor (MP), or output of the additional worker, increases rapidly initially and then decreases and becomes negative. ∆Output ∆Q MPL = = ∆Labor Input ∆L 11 Production with one variable input (Labor) Output per Month D 112 Total Product C 60 A: slope of tangent = MP (20) B: slope of 0B = AP (20) C: slope of 0C= MP & AP B A 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Labor per Month 12 Production with one variable input (Labor) Output per Month Observations: Left of E: MP > AP & AP is increasing Right of E: MP < AP & AP is decreasing E: MP = AP & AP is at its maximum 30 Marginal Product E 20 Average Product 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Labor per Month 13 Production with one variable input (Labor) As the use of an input increases in equal increments, a point will be reached at which the resulting additions to output decreases (i.e. MP declines). Known as the Law of Eventually Diminishing Marginal Returns. – Governs all short-run production relationships 14 Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns When the labor input is small, MP increases due to specialization. When the labor input is large, MP decreases due to inefficiencies. 15 The Effect of Technological Improvement Output per time period Labor productivity can increase if there are improvements in technology, even though any given production process exhibits diminishing returns to labor. C 100 B O3 A O2 50 O1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Labor per time period 16 Long-run production relationships Long run: different inputs can be varied over different time horizons. Given sufficient amount of time to adjust, a firm can vary the amounts of all inputs used in its production process There are no fixed inputs in the long run—all inputs are variable. Long-run production function: Q = f(L, K). Both labor and capital can be varied, so increases in output can be achieved by adding more labor or more capital or more of both. How long is the long run? For fast-food restaurants (e.g. KFC)? For vertically integrated electric power companies (e.g. Public Power Corp of Greece)? Isoquant Draw a curve showing all the possible combinations of inputs that produce the same output. – Call this curve an isoquant. Consider the following table showing how many tons of steel we get from various amounts of capital and labor. 18 Production of Steel Labor Input Capital Input 1 2 3 4 5 1 20 40 55 65 75 2 40 60 75 85 90 3 55 75 90 100 105 4 65 85 100 110 115 5 75 90 105 115 120 19 Production with Two Variable Inputs (L,K) Capital per year The Isoquant Map E 5 4 3 A B The isoquants are derived from the production function for output of 55, 75, and 90. C 2 Q3 = 90 D 1 Q2 = 75 Q1 = 55 1 2 3 4 5 Labor per year 20 Isoquants The isoquants emphasize how different input combinations can be used to produce the same output. This information allows the producer to respond efficiently to changes in the markets for inputs. An isoquant is drawn assuming both factors can be changed. – It may take longer to vary some inputs 21 Production with Two Variable Inputs Assume capital is 3 and labor increases from 0 to 1 to 2 to 3 (A→B→C). – Notice output increases at a decreasing rate (55, 20, 15) illustrating diminishing returns from labor in the short-run and long-run. Assume labor is 3 and capital increases from 0 to 1 to 2 to 3 (D→E→C). – Output also increases at a decreasing rate (55, 20, 15) due to diminishing returns from capital. 22 The Shape of Isoquants The slope of each isoquant shows the trade-off between two inputs while keeping output constant. – Similar to the slope of the indifference curve. Call the slope of the isoquant the marginal rate of technical substitution (MRTS). 23 Marginal Rate of Technical Substitution The marginal rate of technical substitution equals: MRTS = - Change in capital/Change in labor input MRTS = − ∆K ∆L (for a fixed level of Q) 24 Cost Theory: accounting costs vs. economic costs Financial accounting: GAAP and FASB, outsiders vs. insiders, audited financial statements, efficient capital markets in advanced economies, why study financial accounting? Managerial accounting: do companies typically release internal cost accounting reports to the public? Why not? Who sees them and how are they used? If our goal is to understand how firms make supply decisions, which perspective on costs seems more appropriate? Going forward in this course, we will put on our managerial accounting hats and think about costs as good cost accountants do. Economic Profits vs. Accounting Profits Warren Buffet on the topic: o Our long-term economic goal … is to maximize the average annual rate of gain in intrinsic business value on a per-share basis. We do not measure the economic significance or performance of Berkshire by its size; we measure by per-share progress. We … will be disappointed if our rate does not exceed that of the average large American corporation. o Our preference would be to reach this goal by directly owning a diversified group of businesses that generate cash and consistently earn above-average returns on capital. Our second choice is to own parts of similar businesses, attained primarily through purchases of marketable common stocks ... o Because of this two-pronged approach to business ownership and because of the limitations of conventional accounting, consolidated reported earnings may reveal relatively little about our true economic performance. I … virtually ignore such consolidated numbers. However, we will also report to you the earnings of each major business we control, numbers we consider of great importance. These figures, along with other information we will supply about the individual businesses, should generally aid you in making judgments about them. o Accounting consequences do not influence our operating or capital-allocation decisions. When acquisition costs are similar, we much prefer to purchase $2 of earnings that is not reportable by us under standard accounting principles than to purchase $1 of earnings that is reportable. ... In aggregate and over time, we expect the unreported earnings to be fully reflected in our intrinsic business value through capital gains. o ... We will only do with your money what we would do with our own, weighing fully the values you can obtain by diversifying your own portfolios through direct purchases in the stock market. Running with the big dogs Robert L. Bartley, long-time editor of the WSJ, on whether you are ready to work for Berkshire-Hathaway: “EPS, the familiar earnings per share, is supposed to measure corporate profit, as determined by GAAP, or generally accepted accounting principles. But economists have long recognized that profit is something of a mystery, and that economic profit is by no means the same thing as accounting profit.” “The purpose of capital markets is to direct scarce capital to its highest uses. The highest uses depend on economic profit -- rates of return on assets -- not on accounting profits. Yet the Sarbanes-Oxley Act that established the Accounting Oversight Board also enshrined EPS and GAAP more firmly than ever. The act puts impediments to revealing economic-profit numbers such as Mr. Wallison's cash flow or Mr. Stewart's EVA.” “Yet these are precisely the kind of numbers sophisticated CEOs and CFOs use for internal management. At its best, indeed, securities analysis is about converting reported accounting profits into meaningful economic profits, but analysts who can do that are hired away to run hedge funds and the like. They leave behind the earnings-per-share crowd to hector managers about accounting profits, persuading them that this is what drives share prices.” Opportunity Cost—the most important intuition you can develop for running a business Opportunity cost: the highest valued alternative use of a scarce resource is the cost of employing that resource in its current place. Examples Cost of getting an MBA Cost to your instructor of holding a help session on Thursday afternoons Renting vs. owning your dwelling Financing your education Cost of owning and operating a car for a year while getting your MBA Nikos’s sandal shop Total revenue from sale of goods = €80,000 Explicit costs of operating the business: cost of goods sold €40,000 taxes and utilities €5,000 rent €10,000 Accounting profit = €25,000 Additional information – Nikos works full time in the shop and doesn’t pay himself a salary. He used to work as a mechanic and earned €24,000 per year. – Nikos and his wife have €40,000 tied up in the business at any point in time—working capital. They took that money out of an investment account where they earned 5% per year. – Nikos had to buy a computer (€3,000) and install carpeting (€5,000) when she opened the business. Both of these have an expected life of 4 years, at which point they will both have to be replaced. If you were him, what would you do? Accounting profits = €25,000 How much would Nikos have at the end of the year if he were not operating this shop and instead pursued his next best alternative? Implicit costs: – opportunity cost of his time = €24,000 – foregone interest on investment = €2,000 – economic depreciation (annualized) = €2,000 Economic Profits Economic profits = Total Revenue – total explicit costs – total implicit costs €80k - €55k - €28k = - €3,000 Nikos is doing €3,000 worse than his next best alternative!! He would be better off working as a mechanic, earning interest on his investments, and not putting money into carpet and a computer that wear out. What would you pay for this business if Jan wants to retire and sell it? If you currently work as a mechanic earning €24,000 per year? [answer: nothing—you’re better off staying in your current job!] If you are a high school dropout earning €18,000 per year working at KFC selling chicken? Hint: calculate the economic profits you would earn if you quit JJ’s and bought Jan out. What would you pay for a government bond that pays €3,000 per year in perpetuity? Opportunity Costs Whenever we talk about costs in this class we will talk about the cost including the opportunity cost. This includes the cost of labor. – what the workers could earn working somewhere else. As well as the cost of capital. – The return the capital could earn invested somewhere else. 34 Sunk Cost Another type of economic cost is Sunk Cost. Sunk Cost – – Expenditure that has been made and cannot be recovered. Should not influence a firm’s decisions. 35 Sunk Cost—An Example Consider the recent decision of UK to sell a pharmaceutical lab for $30M UK invested $47M to set up the lab; should this matter? No. That money is sunk and UK has no way of recovering it. Only consider the revenue that is generate from selling the lab vs. the revenue from continuing to operate the lab 36 Sunk Cost—An Example Need to consider the potential return on investment and riskiness of the venture prior to making the original investments when costs aren’t sunk. 37 Measuring Costs: Which Costs Matter? Next, consider fixed costs and variable costs. Total output is a function of variable inputs and fixed inputs. Therefore, the total cost of production equals the fixed cost (the cost of the fixed inputs) plus the variable cost (the cost of the variable inputs), or… TC = FC + VC 38 Measuring Costs: Which Costs Matter? Fixed Cost (FC) – Does not vary with the level of output Variable Cost (VC) – Cost that varies as output varies 39 Measuring Costs: Which Costs Matter? It is important to understand the distinction between fixed costs and sunk costs. Fixed Cost – Cost paid by a firm that is in business regardless of the level of output. Short run concept Sunk Cost – Cost that has been incurred and cannot be recovered 40 Fixed Costs Examples of Fixed Costs Include: – Rent—A dentist must pay the rent on his office regardless of the number of patients she sees – Insurance – Licenses fee—Dentist must also pay a yearly fee for her license which does not vary with the number of patients – Interest on debt 41 Variable Costs Costs that vary with the amount of output you produce include: – Wages – Electricity – Fuel In general, anything we need more of to produce more output 42 Costs in the Short Run Marginal Cost (MC) is the cost of expanding output by one unit. Since fixed cost has no impact on marginal cost, it can be written as: ∆VC ∆TC MC = = ∆Q ∆Q 43 Costs in the Short Run Average Total Cost (ATC) is the cost per unit of output, or average fixed cost (AFC) plus average variable cost (AVC). This can be written as: TFC TVC ATC = + Q Q 44 Cost Curves for a Firm Total cost is the vertical sum of FC and VC. Cost 400 (€ per year) TC VC Variable cost increases with production and the rate varies with increasing & decreasing returns. 300 200 Fixed cost does not vary with output 100 FC 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Output 45 Cost Curves for a Firm Cost (€ per unit) 100 MC 75 50 ATC AVC 25 AFC 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Output (units/yr.) 46 Important concepts RE short-run cost curves Shape of AFC curve: “spreading one’s overhead” Shape of AVC curve: can you see the law of eventually diminishing marginal returns at work? Shape of the MC curve: can you see the output at which diminishing returns set in? Shape of the Short-run ATC curve: Always U-shaped!! Why? SRATC = SRAFC + SRAVC [shape of AFC + shape of AVC => shape of ATC] What is the designed operating capacity of the plant in the previous diagram? What would happen if you built a different plant size? Relationship between short-run costs and productivity So we have: w MC = MPL … and a low marginal product (MP) leads to a high marginal cost (MC) and vice versa 48 Relationship between short-run costs and productivity Using similar logic we can derive the following relationship: w AVC = APL These equations imply that MC is at a minimum when MPL is at a maximum and AVC is at a minimum when APL is at a maximum. 49 Costs in the Long Run Consider costs in the long run where we can vary all of our inputs. – No fixed costs How does a firm select the inputs needed to produce a given level of output at a minimum cost? – Assume firms want to produce in a way that minimizes costs. 50 Costs in the Long Run Assume a firm uses two inputs into production, capital (K) and labor (L). Price of labor is w, the wage rate. Price of capital is r, the user cost of capital per dollar of capital. 51 Cost Minimizing Input Choice Define the Isocost line: – C = wL + rK – Isocost: A line showing all combinations of L & K that can be purchased for the same cost 52 The Isocost Line Capital per year C/r Slope=-(w/r) C/w Labor per year 53 Cost Minimizing Input Choice In order to choose the cost minimizing input choice we combined the isocost line with the isoquant. 54 Producing a Given Output at Minimum Cost Capital per year Q1 is an isoquant for output Q1. Isocost curve C0 shows all combinations of K and L that cost C0. K2 Isocost C2 shows quantity Q1 can be produced with combination K2L2 or K3L3. However, both of these are higher cost combinations than K1L1. CO C1 C2 are three isocost lines A K1 Q1 K3 C0 L2 L1 C1 L3 C2 Labor per year 55 Costs in the Long Run Relationship between Isoquants and Isocosts and the Production Function MPL ∆ K − = − MRTS = ∆L MPK Slope of isocost line = − ∆K = −w ∆L r MPL MPK =w r 56 Costs in the Long Run The minimum cost combination can then be written as: MPL w = MPK r MPL gives us the additional output we get from hiring one more unit of labor. w tells us the cost of hiring one more unit of labor 57 Costs in the Long Run MPL/w tells us how much additional output we get from spending one more dollar on labor. MPK/r tells us how much additional output we get from spending one more dollar on capital. By setting them equal this says that at the cost minimizing point I get the same increase in output from a dollar spent on either capital or labor. 58 Input Substitution When an Input Price Changes Consider what happens when we change prices. w is now higher so the isocost curve is steeper. Assume we want to keep producing same level of output. 59 Input Substitution When an Input Price Changes Capital per year If the price of labor changes, the isocost curve becomes steeper due to the change in the slope -(w/r). This yields a new combination of K and L to produce Q1. Combination B is used in place of combination A. The new combination represents the higher cost of labor relative to capital and therefore capital is substituted for labor. B K2 A K1 Q1 C2 L2 L1 C1 Labor per year 60 Long-Run Cost Curves Long-Run total costs (LTC) shows how costs change with output when we vary all inputs Long-Run Average Cost (LAC) is given by: LTC LAC = Q Long-Run Marginal Cost is given by: ∆LTC LMC = ∆Q 61 Long-Run Cost Curves The shape of these curves depends on whether the production function exhibits increasing, constant, or decreasing returns to scale. 62 Long-Run Average Cost (LAC) Constant Returns to Scale – If input is doubled, output will double and average cost is constant at all levels of output. – LAC curve will be a flat line. Increasing Returns to Scale – If input is doubled, output will more than double and average cost decreases at all levels of output. – LAC curve is downward sloping. 63 Long-Run Average Cost (LAC) Decreasing Returns to Scale – If input is doubled, the increase in output is less than twice as large and average cost increases with output. – LAC curve is upward sloping. 64 Long-Run Average Cost (LAC) In the long-run, firms initially experience increasing returns to scale at low output and then decreasing returns to scale at higher output and therefore long-run average cost is “U” shaped – Evidence suggests that it may “L” be shaped 65 Long-Run Average Cost and Long-Run Marginal Cost Cost ($ per unit of output LMC LAC Minimum efficient size is the firm size where long-run average cost is at a minimum A At Q* firm is operating at the minimum efficient size Quantity of Output Q* 66 Choosing a plant size: Long-run average costs and the firm’s planning curve Now let’s get serious about opening up a fast-food restaurant in Monastiraki. You find a location and choose a franchise chain. You set up a meeting with company representatives, at which they open a briefcase and pull out some spreadsheets and blueprints which contain the following information: [see next slide] Then they ask you: How many customers do you envision yourself wanting to serve each day? Answer #1: Duh? Answer #2: Well, I’ve done some demand forecasting and I envision serving roughly X meals per day. Long-Run costs with economies and diseconomies of scale Cost (€ per unit of output SATC1 SATC2 SATC3 A B C 400 800 1000 Output The LRAC curve and economies of scale Given sufficient time to plan and execute, firms can vary all inputs optimally for whatever scale of operation they desire. So in reality, firms can choose from many different plant sizes. The LRAC curve is the envelope of all the SRATC curves associated with each different plant size. The LRAC curve tells us the minimum possible average total cost for producing each output level. The shape of the LRAC curve tells us how per unit costs change as the firm changes the scale of its operations. Long-Run costs with economies and diseconomies of scale Cost (€ per unit of output SATC1 SATC2 SATC3 A LRAC B C 400 800 1000 Output Economies and diseconomies of scale If per unit costs fall as the firm increases the scale of its operations, the LRAC curve will be downward sloping. We say that the firm experiences economies of scale. If per unit costs do not change as the firm increases the scale of its operations, the LRAC curve will be flat. We say that the firm experiences constant returns to scale. If per unit costs rise as the firm increases the scale of its operations, the LRAC curve will be upward sloping. We say that the firm experiences diseconomies of scale. Returns to Scale Important to note that decreasing returns to scale is not the same as the law of diminishing returns. – The law of diminishing returns is a short-run concept and tells us that marginal output will fall as we add more of one input holding the other input fixed. – Decreasing returns to scale is a long-run concept and says that output goes up by less than twice as much when we double all inputs. 72 Minimum Efficient Scale Economies of scale or increasing returns to scale Constant returns to scale Diseconomies of scale or decerasing returns to scale Q’ = minimum efficient scale 73 Minimum Efficient Scale (MES) How big does the firm have to be in order to produce the product as cheaply as possible? We call the scale of operations (Q) at which the LRAC curve reaches its minimum level of cost the Minimum Efficient Scale, or MES. Firms operating at a smaller scale could lower their per unit costs by increasing their scale. Firms operating at a sub-optimal scale will be at a competitive disadvantage relative to firms that have attained MES. MES, market demand, and the number of firms in a competitive market? How many fast-food restaurants are there in Athens? In Kalamata? Why? Summary A production function describes the maximum output a firm can produce for each specified combination of inputs. An isoquant is a curve that shows all combinations of inputs that yield a given level of output. 75 Summary Average product of labor measures the productivity of the average worker, whereas marginal product of labor measures the productivity of the last worker added. The law of diminishing returns explains that the marginal product of an input eventually diminishes as its quantity is increased. 76 Summary Managers must take into account the opportunity cost associated with the use of the firm’s resources. Firms are faced with both fixed and variable costs in the short-run. 77 Summary When there is a single variable input, as in the short run, the presence of diminishing returns determines the shape of the cost curves. In the long run, all inputs to the production process are variable. A firm enjoys economies of scale when it can double its output at less than twice the cost. 78 Summary In long-run analysis, we focus on the firm’s choice of its scale or size of operation. 79
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