ToR for Impact Evaluation for GIZ-GREAT programme [draft]
Terms of Reference
Impact Evaluation of GIZ-GREAT programme in Tajikistan [draft]
1. Introduction and Background
Oxfam is a global movement of millions of people who share the belief that, in a world rich in
resources, poverty isn't inevitable. Oxfam GB has worked in Tajikistan since 2001. Initially Oxfam
responded to drought and other needs in the aftermath of the civil war. Current programmes include a
Drinking Water Supply and Governance project, community based Disaster Risk Reduction and
Economic Justice (EJ) - with focus on livelihoods, including small holder farmers, household energy,
collective marketing and natural resource management, climate change advocacy and local
governance.
Oxfam vision for Tajikistan is to empower poor women and men in rural Tajikistan to enable them to
proactively claim their rights to better living conditions. In Oxfam’s vision result can be seen with
poor people and women claiming their rights to: access to safe water and sanitation, business
opportunities, markets, resources and services, more investments and poverty reduction. In this role
Oxfam’s focuses on: facilitating poor people improving their quality of life, linking governance
levels, influencing, campaigning, advocacy, coordination, innovation and capacity building.
Context of Tajikistan
Tajikistan a landlocked country in the CIS came into existence in the year 1991 after the break-up of
the former Soviet Union. The country was thereafter wrecked by seven year long civil war that took a
huge toll on its economy and infrastructure and partly due to this; Tajikistan remains the poorest
country in the CIS (per capita GDP at US$ 1036 in 2013) with poverty rate hovering above 30%.
Post civil war, the country achieved spectacular growth rate contributing to sharp drop in poverty
over the past decade. However deeper structural problems remains, with Tajikistan economy heavily
dependent on remittances (mostly from Russia) which contributes over 42% of the national income,
rest mostly comes from agriculture and a small proportion from service sector (manufacturing being
almost insignificant). Recent economic downturn in Russia and devaluation of its currency Rouble
has led to sharp drop in remittances (33% from 2014 to ’15) resulting in decline in growth rate (6.7%
in 2014 to 4.2% in ‘15). Over the medium term, Tajikistan faces adverse economic outlook with
rising unemployment, food in-security and worsening household income across the economic
categories.
With only 7% of its territory as arable, the country has not been able to achieve effective transition
from Soviet era agriculture system- mostly based on large cooperative farms, restrictions on growing
cotton crop and state provisioning of agriculture infrastructure. Lack of land tenure security,
crumbling irrigation systems, weak public investment in agriculture extension and research and
looming threat of climate change makes the agriculture sector of Tajikistan less productive and
vulnerable.
EJ Programme in Tajikistan
The EJ programme in Tajikistan works to improve the livelihoods of vulnerable population in the
poorest regions of the country. The programme has moved from a humanitarian response which
sought to develop value chains and build basic relationships to a forward leaning programme
designed to increase livelihoods through gendered focussed small and medium private sector
development. It reflects Oxfam’s understanding of a missing micro, small and medium (MSM)
enterprise in Tajikistan’s agriculture system targeted through a step-up strategy that would empower
small food producers and low income consumers. Over the past few years, Oxfam’s work in EJ has
led to three models of interventions, which may be further tested, replicated and advocated:
Oxfam GB, Tajikistan
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ToR for Impact Evaluation for GIZ-GREAT programme [draft]
i)
Women’s economic empowerment and leadership by which women producer groups and
small holder farmers will consolidate their position and ability to work together
ii)
Market system development through models to facilitate access to extension services in a
market driven, self-help/sustainable approach
iii)
Enabling environment: Community based Organizations (CBO) as main drivers of the
community led action
Oxfam adopts a comprehensive one program approach following the recently developed Oxfam in
Tajikistan Country Strategy (OCS) 2015 – 2020. This has been reflected across its economic justice
portfolio: supporting the emergence of an enabling environment for fair agricultural business
development, and empowering village populations to actively and sustainably participate in local
economic development processes.
The EJ portfolio currently has two main projects- Gendered Enterprise and Markets (GEM)
supported by DfID, UK and Growth in Rural Economy and Agriculture: Tajikistan (GREAT)
supported by GIZ-DfID.
GREAT project
Oxfam works, alongside other NGOs and partners, on the GIZ “Growth in the Rural Economy and
Agriculture: Tajikistan” (GREAT) programme, co-funded by DfID. The programme’s general
objective is to contribute to economic growth in rural areas, with an expected impact on poverty
alleviation. The GREAT project was implemented in 3 phases, of 1 year each starting in the 2013
(for details, see attached GREAT proposals for all three phases). The third phase of the project will
be completed by September 2016.
Over the past three years of its implementation, the project has worked closely with the rural
community in Khatlon region of Tajikistan especially with the small holder farmers to help them
improve their farm productivity and income. To this end, the project facilitated over 50 farmers
collectives, Producers Groups (PG) and their Clusters (specific commodity based) that seek to adopt
new technologies and input for farming and carry out collective marketing of produce to generate
remunerative returns. The project also promoted private, decentralised extension services catering to
the needs of small holder farmers by investing in capacity of local agronomists, improving supply
chain of agriculture input and promoting paid advisory services by extension agents down to the
village level. To strengthen grassroots civil society action for local governance and development, the
project promoted large number of CBOs, constitutionally recognized village level elected bodies, by
facilitating their formation and later by helping local government authorities carry out the formation
exercise. Finally Oxfam through the GREAT project has strived to influence the key actors and
institutions in the strategic environment which includes, but not limited to- local, regional and
national government authorities, agriculture system, market agents and institutions and development
partners in Tajikistan.
GIZ has informally1 communicated to OGB, TJK that after the completion of the current phase of
GREAT III project, they intend to launch a new 2 year programme- TRIGGER in October 2016 to
continue to advance the agenda of rural development in Tajikistan. The TRIGGER programme seeks
to leverage the achievements of 3 year GREAT project and as main focus strives to build inclusive
value chains in agriculture sector with a view to generate employment, enhance rural income and
stimulate SME related investment in agriculture and related enterprises in Tajikistan.
In the aforesaid context, Oxfam is seeking to hire a suitable agency/individual that can provide
consultancy services for conducting comprehensive impact evaluation of the 3 year GREAT project.
1
Based on meeting of GIZ with Oxfam TJK CD and EJ-PM in June 2016
Oxfam GB, Tajikistan
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ToR for Impact Evaluation for GIZ-GREAT programme [draft]
2. Purpose and objectives of the assignment
In light of the background presented above, the main purpose of the assignment is ‘to conduct
evidence based impact evaluation of the GREAT programme and document key lessons for
future’. Based on this, the objective of the assignment would be as follows:
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Based on stakeholder consultation and field assessments; evaluate the relevance, efficacy,
efficiency and effectiveness of the programme
Employing methods like Theory of Change, examine the appropriateness of interventions
carried out
Evaluate the achievement of programme against the set objectives at the level of project
participants, villages, Sub-district (Jamoat), District (Hukumat) and region level and on local
authorities, market systems and development partners
Using suitable outcome harvesting techniques and based on appropriate counterfactuals, map
out key intended and unintended outcomes of the project
Analyze the result of evaluation to delineate key lessons learnt from the project that can feed
in the upcoming TRIGGER programme and institutional lessons for the Oxfam in general
Based on the findings, make recommendations on future approach and strategy for- a)
scaling-up interventions and b) advocacy and influencing in EJ programme
Develop short cases or caselets on the findings, lessons and recommendations on key
strategic sectors for purpose of advocacy and national level influencing
The evaluation should be based on mixed method including literature review, field assessments and
stakeholder consultations with emphasis on generating rigorous evidence on impact embedded within
appropriate attibution analysis.
Oxfam team in field will provide assistance to consultant in field data collection and field logistics.
However overall responsibility of organizing the acitivities will rest on agency/individual contracted
for the assignment. The point person for the assignment would be Mr. Mirzomurod Samiev [Email:
[email protected]] , Programme Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (PMEAL) Coordinator,
Oxfam GB, Tajikistan.
3. Scope of assignment
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Discuss the ToR and assignment roll out plan with Oxfam Tajikistan, Country
Director, EJ Programme Manager and PMEAL Coordinator
Carry out review of literature and conduct consultations with national level
stakeholders based in Dushanbe
Conduct ToC exercise with EJ-GREAT staff and partners to understand the linkages
in the programme logic framework
Conduct field evaluation of project impact on participants and direct stakeholders
using concurrent quantitative and qualitative data collection methods
Conduct interviews with other key stakeholders (like local authorities, CBO officials,
development agencies) to record their views on project impact
Based on agreed analysis plan, analyze data to identify and measure impacts at
different levels
Based on findings from above, capture key lessons and develop caselets in agreed
domains
Present the key findings, lessons and recommendation to Oxfam management and
partners in Dushanbe
Submit draft report for review
Submit final report
Oxfam GB, Tajikistan
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ToR for Impact Evaluation for GIZ-GREAT programme [draft]
4. Procurement process
On publication of the call for proposal for this assignment, interested consultant/agencies
with demonstrable experience in conducting similar assignment in past, may submit
technical and financial proposal to Oxfam for consideration. Suggested structure for
technical proposal is as follows:
i) Organization profile or CV of consultant ii) Understanding about the programme and ToR
iii) Study framework iv) Proposed methodology (including- study design, sampling, tools
and methods, indicators and key areas of exploration) v) Implementation plan vi) Team
members with their profile (in case of agency) vii) Prior experience of undertaking similar
work.
In evaluating the proposal, 70% weightage will be given to technical proposal and rest 30%
to financial.
5. Output & Deliverable
i) Impact evaluation report with relevant annexure ii) 3-4 caselets in specific sectors iii) all raw data
in appropriate format
6. Timeline (indicative)
August 25- 23rd September, 2016 (19 working days)
3 days in Dushanbe
7 days in Kulyab
6 days for draft report submission for review by OGB
3 days for final proposal submission to OGB
7. Background Documents
i)
Oxfam Country Strategy
ii)
EJ PMEAL (EJ Logic Model, EL logframe and MIS)
iii)
GREAT project documents
iv)
Past review reports submitted to GIZ
v)
GIZ notes and documents on TRIGGER
Oxfam GB, Tajikistan
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