To cite this output:
Song, L, (2013) The Impacts of Fall in Exports on Livelihoods in China: Urban Unemployment, Rural Poverty and the Welfare
of Rural-Urban Migrants
ESRC End of Award Report, RES-238-25-0035. Swindon: ESRC.
ESRC End of Award Report
For awards ending on or after 1 November 2009
This End of Award Report should be completed and submitted using the grant reference
as the email subject, to [email protected] on or before the due date.
The final instalment of the grant will not be paid until an End of Award Report is completed
in full and accepted by ESRC.
Grant holders whose End of Award Report is overdue or incomplete will not be eligible for
further ESRC funding until the Report is accepted. We reserve the right to recover a sum of
the expenditure incurred on the grant if the End of Award Report is overdue. (Please see
the ESRC Research Funding Guide for details.)
Please refer to the Guidance notes when completing this End of Award Report.
Grant Reference
Grant Title
Grant Start Date
Grant End Date
Grant holding
Institution
Grant Holder
Grant Holder’s Contact
Details
ES/1035079/1
The Impacts of Fall in Exports on China’s Livelihoods: Urban
Employment, Rural Poverty and the Welfare of Rural-urban
Migrants
1st Oct 2011
Total Amount
£79,515.46
th
Expended:
30 Sept 2012
University of Nottingham
Lina Song
Address
Email
School of Contemporary
[email protected]
Chinese Studies, University of Telephone
Nottingham, Jubilee Campus, 0115 841 2267
Nottingham, NG8 1BB
(Please note that Lina Song
has transferred from School
of Sociology and Social Policy
from Oct 2012)
Co-Investigators (as per project application): Institution
Dr Simon Appleton
School of Economics, University of
Nottingham, NG7 2RD
Professor Shi Li
School of Economic and
Business, Beijing Normal
University,19 Xinjei kouwai
Dajie, Beijing 100875
1
To cite this output:
Song, L, (2013) The Impacts of Fall in Exports on Livelihoods in China: Urban Unemployment, Rural Poverty and the Welfare
of Rural-Urban Migrants
ESRC End of Award Report, RES-238-25-0035. Swindon: ESRC.
1. Non-technical summary
Please provide below a project summary written in non-technical language. The summary
may be used by us to publicise your work and should explain the aims and findings of the
project. [Max 250 words]
This project has employed nationally representative household (including labour force)
surveys of China over 20 years (1988-2008) to trace the changes in the urban labour
market, rural poverty, migrants’ health and education and socio-political stability. The
impacts of the slow-down of exports from the 2008 credit crunch on the Chinese people’s
livelihoods are examined in comparison with the previous years, and through our
investigations into the wage inequality, unemployment and welfare of different groups of
workers.
Welfare including wage earnings has been more unequally distributed by 2008; the key
determinants contributing to the rise in inequality over time are not the individual
characteristics of workers but the structure of the labour market. The state sector has
benefited from polices of monopolising profitable industries (banking, transportation,
communication and energy sectors). Private sector workers overall receive lower earnings
than their counterparts in the state sector, particularly in 2008. Workers employed in
foreign invested firms used to enjoy a wage premium, yet by 2008 this had disappeared,
except for top end wage earners.
The key policy concern investigated is that the distributional impact of the 2008 crisis will be
particularly retrograde - pushing back the foothold low income workers have obtained in
the face of official discrimination and squeezing the private sector while ailing state owned
enterprises are propped up through the government's stimulus package.
2. Project overview
a) Objectives
Please state the aims and objectives of your project as outlined in your proposal to us. [Max
200 words]
The project objectives are:
1.
To track changes in poverty and inequality broadly defined in China, before, during
and after 2008 when the fall in exports started due to the economic crisis, using national
representative survey data that covers urban residents, rural residents and rural-urban
migrants, as well as recording labour market outcomes; incomes; and education and
health.
2.
To estimate the impact of adverse movements in wages and employment on the
key outcomes of interest - including income poverty, growth, inequality; and social
2
To cite this output:
Song, L, (2013) The Impacts of Fall in Exports on Livelihoods in China: Urban Unemployment, Rural Poverty and the Welfare
of Rural-Urban Migrants
ESRC End of Award Report, RES-238-25-0035. Swindon: ESRC.
indicators.
3.
To assist policy makers in China by providing rigorous and reliable information on
questions such as: the extent of unemployment and underemployment; the prevalence of
wages below minimum wage; remittances to rural areas; and the access of migrants to
social sector services and to examine the distributional consequences of government
policies. The research findings will be of interest to broader set of policy-makers
internationally especially those concerned with strategies to achieve economic and human
development and poverty reduction.
b) Project Changes
Please describe any changes made to the original aims and objectives, and confirm that these
were agreed with us. Please also detail any changes to the grant holder’s institutional
affiliation, project staffing or funding. [Max 200 words]
There is no major changes occurred since the project started from 1st October 2011.
However, this one year project did not give us sufficient time to organise anther trip to go
to China for the purpose of dissemination, as our research outcomes came out towards
the very end of the project. Although we had two discussion papers published on openaccess website by the end of 2012, our other two papers have only recently drafted.
That said, the PI (Professor Lina Song) met with Chinese officials (Ministry of Human
Resources and Social Security, China Reform and Development Foundation, and Chinese
Enterprise Federation) and scholars (Peking University, Renmin University and Beijing
Normal University) during her trip in China in February 2013(with financial support from
her other project funding). Through these meetings, Professor Song reported the research
findings and exchanged views with the officials and scholars involved. The research team
believes that the purposes of disseminating the research findings from this project have
been met this way.
Professor Lina Song (the PI) has changed her department from School of Sociology and
Social Policy to School of Contemporary Chinese Studies from 25th September 2012. Since
this took place towards the end of this project, and her affiliation remains within the same
university (University of Nottingham), the administration of this project has been remained
in and maintained by her formal school.
c) Methodology
Please describe the methodology that you employed in the project. Please also note any
ethical issues that arose during the course of the work, the effects of this and any action
taken. [Max 500 words]
The data used for our analysis are from micro household (including labour force) surveys
of 1988, 1995, 2002 and 2007-2010. All these data sets are national representative
3
To cite this output:
Song, L, (2013) The Impacts of Fall in Exports on Livelihoods in China: Urban Unemployment, Rural Poverty and the Welfare
of Rural-Urban Migrants
ESRC End of Award Report, RES-238-25-0035. Swindon: ESRC.
covering Chinese urban households (labour force), rural households (labour force) and
rural-urban households (labour force from 2002). With the panel starting from 2007 to
2010, two waves were obtained on time but the last two were not ready for analysis until
towards the end of the project.
In order to use what we have had during the project period and to match the analysis with
the objectives of this project, we have employed three kinds of econometric methods.
One is to use quantile regression analysis on all obtained cross-sectional data at four year
points, to investigate wage inequality in the urban Chinese labour market, examining the
factors affecting changes in inequality over time and across the distribution of wages during
each surveyed year (two papers are written).
The second method is to use a pseudo panel approach to study rural and migrant welfare
(one paper is forthcoming). This approach examines changes over time of welfare provision
due to job related factors including rural-urban migration.
The third method is to analyse the short panel of four waves (2007-2010). The project
team is still in the middle of the data analysis of this panel.
d) Project Findings
Please summarise the findings of the project, referring where appropriate to outputs
recorded on the ESRC website. Any future research plans should also be identified. [Max
500 words]
Three research papers are currently produced: two will be uploaded to the project
website soon after this report, and the other one is drafted and will be uploaded in early
2013 after careful revision. Due to the short period of this project (12 months), and the
last two waves of data sets not being ready for analysis during the project period, the other
two planned papers (rural poverty and migrants’ welfare) are still in the middle of analysis.
Our key findings from the three papers to date can be summarised as follows:
Income inequality in China over the past two decades has risen sharply. 2008 saw the
highest wage inequality compared to that of the previous years. Using quantile regression
analysis, we find that compared with 2002, wage returns to education fell; this is
particularly true for both higher end wage earners and the lowest paid. The gender wage
gap enlarged between 2008 and the previous years; the gap between 2002 and 2008
becoming larger as we move up the wage distribution. The wage gap between blue and
white collar workers deepened from the previous years to 2008. Turning to firm related
characteristics, by 2008, apart from the very top-end wage earners, the wages for workers
in private and foreign invested firms have fallen relative to those in the state sector.
Applying decomposition analysis, we find the rise in wage inequality was almost entirely due
to changes in the structure of the labour market: that is to say, due to changes in the
returns to worker and firm characteristics rather than to changes in the characteristics
themselves. China’s transitional market economy is still not perfect. The large monopolistic
state owned enterprises play a dominant role in the current labour market by paying their
4
To cite this output:
Song, L, (2013) The Impacts of Fall in Exports on Livelihoods in China: Urban Unemployment, Rural Poverty and the Welfare
of Rural-Urban Migrants
ESRC End of Award Report, RES-238-25-0035. Swindon: ESRC.
employees high salaries and welfare, which have led to the rise in urban wage inequality.
Rural-urban migration in China is primarily motivated by an expected income gain and thus
should reduce income poverty. However, migration to a non-sustainable environment may
increase health risks, and health may be traded off with expected income gains. Using
pseudo panel data constructed from three national representative household surveys
(1994, 2002 and 2008), we identify the effect of migration on health in general. We analyse
migrants’ health behaviour – inter alia, whether relentless effort in pursuit of income
contributes to a decline in migrants’ health status; and whether relaxing the income
constraint improves their health care and medical treatment. We find that although the
majority of rural-urban migrants have been covered by all types of social insurance, the
funding, in particular of medical care, is not sufficient. Therefore when jobs in the urban
formal sector became scarce due to the 2008 financial crisis, social safety nets designated
for rural-urban migrants could not meet their needs.
e) Contributions to wider ESRC initiatives (eg Research Programmes or
Networks)
If your project was part of a wider ESRC initiative, please describe your contributions to the
initiative’s objectives and activities and note any effect on your project resulting from
participation. [Max. 200 words]
N.A.
3. Early and anticipated impacts
a) Summary of Impacts to date
Please summarise any impacts of the project to date, referring where appropriate to
associated outputs recorded on the Research Outcomes System (ROS). This should include
both scientific impacts (relevant to the academic community) and economic and societal
impacts (relevant to broader society). The impact can be relevant to any organisation,
community or individual. [Max. 400 words]
Scientific Impacts
In August and September 2012 when the two Chinese research counterparts visited the
UK, and our tentative findings were produced, the research team organised research
workshops in the University of Oxford, Aston University, School of Oriental and African
Studies, the University of Manchester and the University of Nottingham for disseminating
the research findings and seeking feedback from academics.
The drafted papers will be soon uploaded as the working papers on the website of the
Institute for the Study of Labor in Bonn, Germany; and on the website of University of
Nottingham’s China Policy Institute.
5
To cite this output:
Song, L, (2013) The Impacts of Fall in Exports on Livelihoods in China: Urban Unemployment, Rural Poverty and the Welfare
of Rural-Urban Migrants
ESRC End of Award Report, RES-238-25-0035. Swindon: ESRC.
Members of the research team were invited to attend many academic events for
disseminating the research findings. The PI and the research assistant attended the
international conference organised by the University of Southampton in October 2012.
Impacts on Broader Society
Professor Lina Song was invited to give talks by British Council at EU-China Conference
Budapest on 4th November 2012; she also attended EU-China Dialogue Brussels on 28th
November 2012; through her talks she disseminated the findings from this project.
As the expert consulted by the Europe China Research and Advice Network (ENCRAN),
Lina Song has presented the research finding to brief various EU agents throughout this
project period.
Professor Stefan Dercon, Chief Economist of DfID consulted with Lina Song in Beijing in
July 2012 about the issues related to this project, and China’s labour market and economic
policy in general. The meeting has resulted in an agreement that Lina Song is to provide
scoping work for DfID on evaluating the lessons and transferability for low income Africa to
learn from China. (Please note: this work has been completed by 5th March 2013.)
In October 2012, the PI went to the head-quarter of Herbert Smith Law Firm LLP in
London to advise the firm and its association on issues of Chinese economic environment
based on the latest findings.
b) Anticipated/Potential Future Impacts
Please outline any anticipated or potential impacts (scientific or economic and societal) that
you believe your project might have in future. [Max. 200 words]
There will be planned academic dissemination sessions at Peking University, Beijing Normal
University and Renmin University in August 2013. Both PI and CoI from the UK will take
part in a PhD training programme for two weeks in Oxford in early July 2013.
A formal meeting to disseminate the research finding will take place in Beijing in August
2013. Officials from Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and other ministries
will be invited.
You will be asked to complete an ESRC Impact Report 12 months after the end date of
your award. The Impact Report will ask for details of any impacts that have arisen since the
completion of the End of Award Report.
6
To cite this output:
Song, L, (2013) The Impacts of Fall in Exports on Livelihoods in China: Urban Unemployment, Rural Poverty and the Welfare
of Rural-Urban Migrants
ESRC End of Award Report, RES-238-25-0035. Swindon: ESRC.
4. Declarations
Please ensure that sections A, B and C below are completed and signed by the appropriate
individuals. The End of Award Report will not be accepted unless all sections are signed.
Please note hard copies are not required; electronic signatures are accepted and should be
used.
A: To be completed by Grant Holder
Please read the following statements. Tick one statement under ii) and iii), then sign with an
electronic signature at the end of the section (this should be an image of your actual
signature).
i) The Project
This Report is an accurate overview of the project, its findings and impacts. All coinvestigators named in the proposal to ESRC or appointed subsequently have seen
and approved the Report.
x
ii) Submissions to the Research Outcomes System (ROS)
Output and impact information has been submitted to the Research Outcomes
System. Details of any future outputs and impacts will be submitted as soon as they
become available.
or
This grant has not yet produced any outputs or impacts. Details of any future
outputs and impacts will be submitted to the Research Outcomes System as soon
as they become available.
X
iii) Submission of Data
Data arising from this grant have been offered for deposit with the UK Data
Service.
or
Data that were anticipated in the grant proposal have not been produced and the
UK Data Service has been notified.
or
No datasets were proposed or produced from this grant.
Signature:
Name:
Date: 17th December 2012
Lina Song
7
x