China’s Natural
Hazards:
China’s Natural Hazards:
An Introduction
An Introduction
0
Natural Hazards in China TransRe White Paper
September
2014
Natural Hazards in China
TransRe White
Paper
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
1
1
by James Rohman | September 2014
b a b a Figure 1. a) China’s population by province, given data in the 2010 Chinese Census. b) Percentage
population change, from 2000 to 2010, given census data.
Figure 1. a) China’s population by province, given data in the 2010 Chinese Census. b) Percentage
a b population change, from 2000 to 2010, given Census data.
a b ion change, from 2000 to 2010, given Census data.
Figure 2. a) China’s GDP by province, given data in the 2010 Chinese Census. b) Percentage GDP
change, from 2000 to 2010, given Census data.
1 Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
Figure 2. a) China’s GDP by province, given data in the 2010 Chinese Census. b) Percentage GDP
change, from 2000 to 2010, given Census data.
1 Natural Hazards in China TransRe White Paper
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
2
Introduction
Worldwide economic losses from natural catastrophes were $140 billion in
2013 (events including Australia Drought, US Wildfire and Egyptian Snow),
of which 68% was uninsured. These figures are down from 2011 (Texas
Drought, Thailand Floods, Hurricane Irene), when 72% of the $380 billion
economic losses were uninsured. While recent total losses from natural
Worldwide
economic
natural
catastrophes
were
$140 billion
catastrophes
arelosses
belowfrom
average
($190
billion), they
represent
majorinlosses
2013 for
(events
including
Australia
Drought,
US
Wildfire
and
Egyptian
Snow),
insurers, and significant opportunities for global insurance growth.
of which 68% was uninsured. These figures are down from 2011 (Texas
ThisThailand
growth potential
is most apparent
in Asia,
which
contributed
58% of
Drought,
Floods, Hurricane
Irene), when
72%
of the
$380 billion
2013ʼs
uninsured
losses, with
events
suchtotal
as Typhoon
Haiyan
and the
economic
losses
were uninsured.
While
recent
losses from
natural
Indian cold
specifically,
withinthey
Asia,
China has
the losses
worldʼs
catastrophes
are wave.
below More
average
($190 billion),
represent
major
largest and
population,
oneopportunities
of the worldʼs
most vibrant
economies,
for insurers,
significant
forlargest
globaland
insurance
growth.
and is exposed to a plethora of natural catastrophes. It is extremely
This growth
potential
is most
apparent
Asia, which
contributed
58% ofof the
important
that further
research
is in
performed
to improve
the ability
2013ʼsgovernment
uninsured losses,
with
events such
as Typhoon
Haiyan
and
planners,
(re)insurers,
businesses
and
citizens
to the
better
Indianunderstand
cold wave. the
More
specifically,
within
Asia, China
the worldʼs
impact
of natural
disasters,
and tohas
calibrate
mitigation plans.
largest population, one of the worldʼs largest and most vibrant economies,
is experiencing
industrialization
andIturbanization
and isChina
exposed
to a plethorarapid
of natural
catastrophes.
is extremelyof the
population.
A number
of these
major population
are of
coastal
important
that further
research
is performed
to improvecenters
the ability
the cities;
exposing
them to(re)insurers,
potential events
such asand
rising
sea levels,
flooding and
government
planners,
businesses
citizens
to better
understand
the impact
of natural
disasters,
and to calibrate mitigation plans.
increasingly
frequent
and severe
windstorms.
Introduction
Historically, only 5% of economic
loss from natural catastrophes has
been recovered from insurers in
China, whereas 20-40% is
same time,rapid
these
developing urban
are benefiting
ChinaAt
is the
experiencing
industrialization
and areas
urbanization
of the from
recovered
more
established
Historically,
onlyin5%
of economic
significant
investments
in
infrastructure
and
other
projects
in transport
population.
A
number
of
these
major
population
centers
are
coastal
cities; (high
markets.
loss from
natural catastrophes has
been recovered from insurers in
China, whereas 20-40% is
recovered in more established
markets.
speed
rail,tohighways
airports),
power
transmission)
and
exposing
them
potential and
events
such as
rising(generation
sea levels, and
flooding
and
water (storage,
and
distribution). Such capital investments are
increasingly
frequent treatment
and severe
windstorms.
exposed to complicated delays and damage from natural catastrophes.
At the same time, these developing urban areas are benefiting from
significant
investments
infrastructure
andthe
other
projects
transport
(high
As the
cities have in
expanded,
so has
need
to feedinthem.
Creating
water
systems
and diversification
away and
from flood
speedconservative
rail, highways
and management
airports), power
(generation
and transmission)
water plains
(storage,
distribution).
Such
investments
are that
are treatment
two of theand
significant
farming
andcapital
agricultural
challenges
exposed
to complicated
delays and damage from natural catastrophes.
China
faces.
public
perceptions
ofso
risk
and
insurance
change,
and
as insurance
As theAs
cities
have
expanded,
has
the
need to feed
them.
Creating
conservative
water
management
systems markets,
and diversification
awaythe
from
flood
penetration
increases
in developing
understanding
base
plainselements
are two ofofthe
significant
farming and and
agricultural
challenges
that ever
accurate
risk assessment
price adequacy
becomes
Chinamore
faces.
important.
As public
of cover
risk and
and as insurance
Oneperceptions
paper cannot
all insurance
aspects ofchange,
natural catastrophes.
Instead we offer
penetration
increases
in developing
understanding
the baseto the science
a general
overview
of the majormarkets,
risks in China:
an introduction
elements
of accurate
riskmonsoons,
assessmentwinter
and price
adequacy
becomes
ever
behind
typhoons,
storms,
drought
and earthquakes,
introduce some of the implications for local insurers.
more and
important.
Thesecannot
are not
the only
disasters
that may
strike – China
is alsowe
exposed
One paper
cover
all aspects
of natural
catastrophes.
Instead
offer to
brushfires,
hail,
landslides
and
volcanoes,
many
of
which
will
be
covered
a general overview of the major risks in China: an introduction to the science in 2 behind
typhoons,papers.
monsoons, winter storms, drought and earthquakes,
subsequent
and introduce some of the implications for local insurers.
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
TransRe is in the business of evaluating and managing risk. Our task is to
understand the links between natural disasters, to weigh their correlations
and to pass our analysis and experience to our customers.
2 Natural Hazards in China TransRe White Paper
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
Typhoons – The Science
Unlike any other ocean basin, the Western North Pacific Basin is vulnerable
to tropical cyclone genesis throughout all 12 months of the year. Tropical
cyclone genesis is, therefore, higher in the Western North Pacific Basin than
1
These are not the only disasters that may strike – China is also exposed to
brushfires, hail, landslides and volcanoes, many of which will be covered in
subsequent papers.
TransRe is in the business of evaluating and managing risk. Our task is to
understand the links between natural disasters, to weigh their correlations
and to pass our analysis and experience to our customers.
Typhoons – The Science
These are not the only disasters that may strike – China is also exposed to
brushfires, hail, landslides and volcanoes, many of which will be covered in
subsequent papers.
Unlike any other ocean basin, the Western North Pacific Basin is vulnerable
to tropical cyclone genesis throughout all 12 months of the year. Tropical
TransRe is in the business of evaluating and managing risk. Our task is to
cyclone genesis is, therefore, higher in the Western North Pacific Basin than
understand the links between natural disasters, to weigh their correlations
any other ocean basin.
and to pass our analysis and experience to our customers.
Storms that develop and strengthen to tropical storm or typhoon strength are
Typhoons
The
more likely to occur–from
JuneScience
to November, when the six main requirements
What is ENSO?
The El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) is the 3-5 year oscillation
between anomalously warm (El Niño)
and cold (La Niña) bands of ocean
water dominating the Pacific Ocean.
The pools
of coldisand
warm water act
What
ENSO?
as energy stores that influence
The
El Niño
Oscillation
weather
on aSouthern
global scale,
(ENSO)
is the
3-5the
year
oscillation
particularly
near
Western
Pacific.
between anomalously warm (El Niño)
and cold (La Niña) bands of ocean
water dominating the Pacific Ocean.
QBO?
The pools What
of cold is
and
warm water act
as energy stores that influence
The quasi-biennial
(QBO)
weather
on a globaloscillation
scale,
is a slow moving
pattern
(average
particularly
near the
Western
Pacific.
cycle period is 28.5 months) of
atmospheric waves. These waves
start in the tropical troposphere and
travel higher
before
being dissipated
What
is QBO?
in the stratosphere, and cause
The
quasi-biennial
oscillation
successive
waves of
easterly (QBO)
and
is
a slow wind
moving
pattern (average
westerly
anomalies.
cycle period is 28.5 months) of
atmospheric waves. These waves
start in the tropical troposphere and
travel higher before being dissipated
in the stratosphere, and cause
Natural
Hazardswaves
in China
TransRe and
White Paper
successive
of |easterly
westerly wind anomalies.
for typhoon formation are more prone to align: warm sea surface
Unlike
any other
oceanenough
basin, the
Western
PacificaBasin
is vulnerable
temperatures
(SSTs),
Coriolis
forceNorth
to develop
low pressure
to
tropical
cyclone genesis
throughout
all 12wind
months
of the
Tropical
center,
atmospheric
instability,
low vertical
shear,
highyear.
humidity
in the
cyclone
genesis troposphere,
is, therefore, and
higher
in the Western
Pacific Basin than
lower-to-middle
a pre-existing
low North
level disturbance.
any other ocean basin.
As with tropical cyclones in every ocean basin, Western North Pacific
Storms
developintensity
and strengthen
to are
tropical
storm
typhoon strength
typhoonthat
frequency,
and path
dictated
byor
large-scale
climate are
more
likely tonamely
occur from
November,
when the(ENSO)
six main
requirements
oscillations,
the ElJune
NiñotoSouthern
Oscillation
and
the Quasifor
typhoon
formation
are more prone to align: warm sea surface
Biennial
Oscillation
(QBO).
temperatures (SSTs), enough Coriolis force to develop a low pressure
center,
atmospheric
instability,
low vertical wind shear, high humidity in the
El Niño/La
Niña
and Typhoons
lower-to-middle troposphere, and a pre-existing low level disturbance.
ENSO oscillates between two phases: the anomalously warm El Niño phase,
As
cyclones
every
basin, Western North Pacific
andwith
the tropical
anomalously
coldinLa
Niñaocean
phase.
typhoon frequency, intensity and path are dictated by large-scale climate
Countless studies
found
in El Niño
years, tropical
oscillations,
namelyhave
the El
Niñothat
Southern
Oscillation
(ENSO)cyclones
and the have
Quasilonger life
cycles and
become more intense storms, with a greater chance of
Biennial
Oscillation
(QBO).
category 3-5 storms and lower chance of smaller storms
El Niño/La Niña and Typhoons
Conversely, in La Niña years, tropical cyclones have shorter life cycles and
tend tooscillates
be less intense
storms.
ENSO
between
two phases: the anomalously warm El Niño phase,
and the anomalously cold La Niña phase.
Over the past 50 years, the average number of named storms in El Niño
years is 150%
of the
average
LainNiña
years.
Landfall
typhoons
also
occur
Countless
studies
have
found in
that
El Niño
years,
tropical
cyclones
have
more
frequently
in
El
Niño
years.
This
may
be
because
tropical
cyclones
longer life cycles and become more intense storms, with a greater chance of
0
form east3-5
of 150
E during
El Niño
years,
giving them
more time to develop,
category
storms
and lower
chance
of smaller
storms
0
while La Niña storms tend to develop west of 150 E.
Conversely, in La Niña years, tropical cyclones have shorter life cycles and
tend
to be less intenseOscillation
storms.
Quasi-Biennial
and Typhoons
Over
years,
the the
average
number
of namedphase,
stormscorresponding
in El Niño
QBO the
alsopast
has50
two
phases:
westerly
and easterly
years
is
150%
of
the
average
in
La
Niña
years.
Landfall
typhoons
also occur
to changes in tropical cyclone frequency.
more frequently in El Niño years. This may be because tropical cyclones
When
QBO
in 0its
tropical
cyclones
more
and
form east
ofis150
E westerly
during Elphase,
Niño years,
giving
them are
more
timefrequent,
to develop,
0
are
prone
to bestorms
stronger
storms.
This is
dueofto150
a decrease
in the vertical
while
La Niña
tend
to develop
west
E.
3 wind shear over the Tropics during the westerly QBO phase.
Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation and Typhoons
Conversely, during the easterly QBO phase there are fewer formed and they
are
less
strong.
QBO
also
has two phases: the westerly and easterly phase, corresponding
to changes in tropical cyclone frequency.
For typhoons that impact China, ENSO has a stronger influence than QBO.
Typhoons – Insurance Implications
Natural Hazards in China TransRe White Paper
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
When considering where and when to underwrite contracts, insurers should
seek the most up-to-date knowledge of and information about the dynamics
of all Western North Pacific typhoons.
Recent studies show a westward shift over the past four decades in the two
3 2
When
QBO
in westerly
its westerly
phase,
tropical
cyclones
more
frequent,
When
QBO
is inisits
phase,
tropical
cyclones
areare
more
frequent,
andand
prone
to be
stronger
storms.
This
is due
a decrease
in the
vertical
areare
prone
to be
stronger
storms.
This
is due
to atodecrease
in the
vertical
wind
shear
over
Tropics
during
westerly
QBO
phase.
wind
shear
over
thethe
Tropics
during
thethe
westerly
QBO
phase.
Conversely,
during
easterly
QBO
phase
there
fewer
formed
they
Conversely,
during
thethe
easterly
QBO
phase
there
areare
fewer
formed
andand
they
strong.
areare
lessless
strong.
typhoons
impact
China,
ENSO
a stronger
influence
than
QBO.
ForFor
typhoons
thatthat
impact
China,
ENSO
hashas
a stronger
influence
than
QBO.
Typhoons– –Insurance
InsuranceImplications
Implications
Typhoons
When
considering
where
when
to underwrite
contracts,
insurers
should
When
considering
where
andand
when
to underwrite
contracts,
insurers
should
seek
most
up-to-date
knowledge
of and
information
about
dynamics
seek
thethe
most
up-to-date
knowledge
of and
information
about
thethe
dynamics
of Western
all Western
North
Pacific
typhoons.
of all
North
Pacific
typhoons.
Introduction
Recent
studies
show
a westward
shift
over
past
decades
in the
Recent
studies
show
a westward
shift
over
thethe
past
fourfour
decades
in the
twotwo
prevailing
typhoon
tracks
in the
Western
North
Pacific.
westward
move
prevailing
typhoon
tracks
in the
Western
North
Pacific.
AnyAny
westward
move
Worldwide economic losses from natural catastrophes were $140 billion in
in typhoon
track
increase
typhoon
landfall
over
all coastal
of coastal
China,
from
in typhoon
track
willwill
increase
typhoon
landfall
over
all of
China,
from
2013 (events including Australia Drought, US Wildfire and Egyptian Snow),
subtropical
southeastern
China
(including
Hong
Kong
and
Guangzhou)
subtropical southeastern China (including Hong Kong and Guangzhou) to to
of which 68% was uninsured. These figures are down from 2011 (Texas
northeastern
China,
as far
as Qingdao.
These
significant
metropolitan
areas
northeastern
China,
as far
as Qingdao.
These
significant
metropolitan
areas
Drought, Thailand Floods, Hurricane Irene), when 72% of the $380 billion
expect
increasing
frequency
of typhoons
hitting
their
cities.
cancan
expect
increasing
frequency
of typhoons
hitting
their
cities.
economic losses were uninsured. While recent total losses from natural
catastrophes
are
below
average typhoon
($190 billion),
they represent
major
losses
shift
in prevailing
tracks
a profound
influence
China,
TheThe
shift
in prevailing
typhoon tracks
hashas
a profound
influence
on on
China,
as as
for insurers,
and
significant
opportunities
for
global
insurance
growth.
regions
Yangtze
River
Valley
experience
more
flooding
from
tropical
regions
likelike
thethe
Yangtze
River
Valley
experience
more
flooding
from
tropical
cyclones,
while
major
cities
along
coastline
more
prone
to be
struck
cyclones,
while
major
cities
along
thethe
coastline
areare
more
prone
to be
struck
This growth potential is most apparent in Asia, which contributed 58% of
by
heavy
wind
and
rain.
by heavy wind and rain.
2013ʼs uninsured losses, with events such as Typhoon Haiyan and the
Figure
3. The
June-October
mean
frequency
Figure
3. The
June-October
mean
frequency
of of
Indian coldThis
wave. More
specifically,
within
Asia, China
has the worldʼs
is significant
managers,
catastrophe
modelers,
This shiftshift
is significant
for for
riskrisk
managers,
catastrophe
modelers,
andand
occurrence,
prevailing
winds
TC TC
occurrence,
andand
the the
prevailing
winds
andand
largest population,
one
of
the
worldʼs
largest
and
most
vibrant
economies,
particularly
underwriters
of
construction
projects
where
the
risks
change
particularly
underwriters
of
construction
projects
where
the
risks
change
andand
motion
vectors.
thick
solid
lines
represent
motion
vectors.
TheThe
thick
solid
lines
represent
the the
and is exposed
toas
a plethora
of natural
catastrophes.
It foundation
is extremely
evolve
the
construction
progresses,
from
to
completion.
evolve
as
the
construction
progresses,
from
foundation
to
completion.
prevailing
typhoon
tracks.
prevailing
typhoon
tracks.
important that further research is performed to improve the ability of the
government
planners,
(re)insurers,
businesses
and
citizens
to better
correctly
price
Construction
Risk/
Erection
Risks
(CAR/EAR),
To To
correctly
price
Construction
All All
Risk/
Erection
All All
Risks
(CAR/EAR),
understand
the impact
ofunderwriters
natural disasters,
and
tonot
calibrate
mitigation
plans.
typhoon
should
analyze
not
the
wind
flood
typhoon
risk,risk,
underwriters
should
analyze
justjust
the
wind
andand
flood
CAR/EAR
represents
10.5%
CAR/EAR
represents
10.5%
of of
vulnerability
a structure
in various
its various
phases
of construction,
keep
vulnerability
of aofstructure
in its
phases
of construction,
butbut
alsoalso
keep
China is experiencing
rapid trends
industrialization
and
urbanization
of the The trends can
insured
business
in
China.
insured
business
in
China.
future
of Western
North
Pacific
typhoons.
Historically, only 5% of economic
an an
eyeeye
on on
future
trends of Western
North
Pacific
typhoons.
The trends can
population. A number of these major population centers are coastal cities;
partially
understood
by following
movement
of ENSO,
QBO
be be
partially
understood
by following
thethe
movement
of ENSO,
QBO
andand
loss from natural catastrophes has
The
provinces
The
toptop
fivefive
provinces
for for
exposing them
to potential
events effects.
such as rising sea levels, flooding and
various
climate
change
various climate change effects.
been recovered from insurers in
increasingly frequent and severe windstorms.
CAR/EAR
insured
exposure
are:
CAR/EAR
insured
exposure
are:
China, whereas 20-40% is
In Niño
El Niño
years,
impacts
of typhoons
in China
more
pronounced
In El
years,
impacts
of typhoons
in China
areare
more
pronounced
duedue
to to
At the same
time,
these
developing
urban
areas
areThis
benefiting
fromgreater longevity of
recovered in1.more
established
1.Guangdong
Guangdong
more
westerly
tropical
cyclone
track.
allows
thethe
more
westerly
tropical
cyclone
track.
This
allows
for for
greater longevity of
significant storms
investmentsgreater
in infrastructure
and
projects
in transport
(high
markets. 2. 2.Jiangsu
Jiangsu
percentage
of other
landfall.
El Niño
years
result
in abovestorms andand
greater percentage
of landfall.
El Niño
years
alsoalso
result
in above-
3.
4.
5.
3.Shanghai
Shanghai
4.Zhejiang
Zhejiang
5.Fujian
Fujian
speed rail,normal
highways
and airports),
power during
(generation
and transmission)
and belowtropical
cyclone
activity
September
October,
normal tropical
cyclone
activity
during September
andand
October,
butbut
belowwater (storage,
treatment
and
distribution).
Such
capital
investments
are
normal
activity
in the
South
China
Sea.
normal
activity
in the
South
China
Sea.
exposed to complicated delays and damage from natural catastrophes.
In post-El
Niño
years,
when
a La
Niña
is developing,
tropical
cyclone
In post-El
Niño
years,
when
a La
Niña
is developing,
tropical
cyclone
As the cities
have expanded,
so has the
need
to feed
them.North
Creating
formation
is below
normal
entire
Western
Pacific
Basin.
formation
is below
normal
for for
thethe
entire
Western
North Pacific
Basin.
water management systems and diversification away from flood
conservative
plains are
two
of these
thefacts,
significant
farming are
and
agricultural
challenges
thatthethe
Given
facts,
underwriters
are
well
advised
to understand
predictive
Given
these
underwriters
well
advised
to understand
predictive
China faces.
methodology
El Niño/La
Niña
QBO.
National
Weather
methodology
for for
El Niño/La
Niña
andand
thethe
QBO.
TheThe
National
Weather
Serviceʼs
Climate
Prediction
Center,
based
of Maryland,
USA,
sends
Serviceʼs
Climate
Prediction
Center,
based
outout
of Maryland,
USA,
sends
outout
As public perceptions
of
risk and
insuranceon
change,
andofas
insurance
weekly
monthly
diagnostics
state
ENSO,
oscillationʼs
weekly
andand
monthly
diagnostics
on thethe
state
of ENSO,
andand
thethe
oscillationʼs
penetration increases in developing markets, understanding the base
strongest signals can be predicted up to 6-8 months in advance. This is also
elements of accurate risk assessment and price adequacy becomes ever
4 4 true of the phases of QBO which enhance the track of typhoons and reduces
more important.
wind
shear.
Natural
Hazards
in China
| TransRe
White
Paper
Natural
Hazards
in China
| TransRe
White
Paper
One
paper cannot cover all aspects of natural catastrophes. Instead we offer
Interested stakeholders should consider every approach angle, including
a general overview of the major risks in China: an introduction to the science
partnering with private companies, public organizations and universities to
behind typhoons, monsoons, winter storms, drought and earthquakes,
create more in-depth and long range prediction services. TransRe will
and introduce some of the implications for local insurers.
continue to monitor developments on behalf of our customers.
Natural Hazards in China TransRe White Paper
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
East Asia Monsoons - The Science
2 The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is a seasonal pattern of
southeasterly winds that carry warm, moist air from the Indian and Pacific
Oceans into East Asia. Each year, summer monsoons first appear in the
central and southern Indochina Peninsula and the South China Sea, as seen
in Figure 4a. The onset is abrupt and dramatic and is preceded by distinct
3
strongestsignals
signalscan
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bepredicted
predictedup
uptoto6-8
6-8months
monthsininadvance.
advance.This
Thisisisalso
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true
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the
phases
of
QBO
which
enhance
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track
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typhoons
and
reduces
true of the phases of QBO which enhance the track of typhoons and reduces
windshear.
shear.
wind
Interestedstakeholders
stakeholdersshould
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everyapproach
approachangle,
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including
Interested
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continue
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continue to monitor developments on behalf of our customers.
East Asia
Asia Monsoons
Monsoons -- The
The Science
Science
East
strongest signals can be predicted up to 6-8 months in advance. This is also
true of the phases of QBO which enhance the track of typhoons and reduces
wind shear.
TheEast
EastAsian
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The
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and
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central
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continue
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in Figure
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thetropical
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- The
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The
EastAsian
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summermonsoon
monsoon
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stepwisemarch,
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summer
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with two abrupt northward jumps and three completely stationary periods.
southeasterly winds that carry warm, moist air from the Indian and Pacific
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andthe
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monsoons
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the
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to
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and
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China
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as
seen
early to mid-May, the monsoon jumps to the Yangtze River Basin, western
and4a.
southern
Japan
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the
Philippine
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early
mid-June,
asininFigure
Figure
in Figure
The onset
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and
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as
4b.
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into
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early
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Indian
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4b. The final step is into North China, Korea and central Japan by early toto
mid-July,like
likeininFigure
Figure4d.
4d.
mid-July,
The East Asian summer monsoon advances in a distinct stepwise march,
Withthe
thereliable
reliable
precipitationmovements.
spikeininJuly
JulyThe
andmonsoon
August,aaforges
significant
amount
with northward
and
northeastward
ahead
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precipitation
spike
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significant
amount
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and
leads
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dramatic
with two
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of moisture is transported from the South China Sea and leads to a dramatic
changeininclimate
climateregime
regimeininEast
EastAsia.
Asia.After
Afterthe
theNorthern
NorthernHemisphereʼs
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After commencing
overchange
the Indochina
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and
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Sea in back
summer,
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early totomid-May,
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Heavy
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to the south. Heavy rainfall in the winter season is confined to South China.
and southern Japan and the Philippine Sea in early to mid-June, as in Figure
isimportant
important
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note
that
Pacific
andIndian
Indian
Ocean
seasurface
surface
4b. The
step is to
into
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China,
Korea
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Japan
by early to
ItItisfinal
that
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and
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sea
temperatures
and
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also
mid-July,
like
in
Figure
4d.
temperatures and Eurasia and Tibetan Plateau snowmelt are
contributing
factors
to
processes
and
mechanisms
related
to
EASM.
contributing factors to processes and mechanisms related to EASM.
With the reliable precipitation spike in July and August, a significant amount
TheEASM,
EASM,
likeAsian
Asian
typhoons,
are
distinctly
affected
byto
ENSO
andQBO.
QBO.
of moisture
is transported
from
the South
China
Seaaffected
and leads
a dramatic
The
like
typhoons,
are
distinctly
by
ENSO
and
change in climate regime in East Asia. After the Northern Hemisphereʼs
ENSO
andSummer
Summer
Monsoons
summer,
windsand
change
to northeasterly
and monsoonal bands retreat back
ENSO
Monsoons
to the south. Heavy rainfall in the winter season is confined to South China.
AsEl
ElNiño
Niñodevelops,
develops,droughts
droughtstend
tendtotooccur
occurmore
moreoften
oftenininNorth
NorthChina,
China,as
asEl
El
As
It is important
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that Pacific
and Indian
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sea far
surface
Niño
prevents
monsoons
from
migrating
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the
north.
This
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due
Niño prevents summer monsoons from migrating far to the north. This is due
temperatures
and Eurasia
andonTibetan
Plateau
snowmeltPacific
are also
theeffect
effect
ElNiño
Niño
thelocation
location
Western
SubtropicalHigh.
High.
totothe
ofofEl
on the
ofofWestern
Pacific Subtropical
contributing factors to processes and mechanisms related to EASM.
Conversely,during
duringthe
thedecaying
decayingstages
stagesofofEl
ElNiño,
Niño,floods
floodstend
tendtotooccur
occurinin
Conversely,
The EASM,
like Asian
typhoons,
are distinctly
affected
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ENSO
andofQBO.
the
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Valley,
especially
in
the
regions
south
the
river.
the Yangtze River Valley, especially in the regions just south of the river.
ENSO
andand
Summer
Monsoons
QBO
and
Summer
Monsoons
QBO
Summer
Monsoons
summer rainfall
clearly
a periodinofNorth
two or three years,
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Niño
develops,
tendoscillates
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more
El
Chinaʼs
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rainfall clearly
oscillates
with aoften
period of two China,
or threeas
years,
most
notably
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and
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Niño prevents
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Yangtze
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theNiño
Huiahe
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and
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Northern China.
and
effect
to the
El
on the
location
Western
Pacific
High.
Valley of
and
the Huiahe
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is also
seen in
Northern China.
Figure 4. Climatological precipitation rates in
Figure 4. Climatological precipitation rates in
sequence from early May to early June. Light and
sequence
from early
May to| early
June.White
Light Paper
and
Natural
Hazards
China
TransRe
Natural
Hazards
ininChina
| TransRe
dark shadings
represent
rainfall
regions White
greaterPaper The variation in rainfall can be attributed to the oscillation of water vapor
dark shadings represent rainfall regions greater Conversely,
The variation
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the floods
oscillation
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therainfall
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Niño,
tendoftowater
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than 5 mm/day and 10 mm/day, respectively. Black
from the South China Sea to the Asian continent. Monsoonal winds
than 5 mm/day and 10 mm/day, respectively. Black transfer
transfer
from
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China
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the
Asian
continent.
Monsoonal
the Yangtze River Valley, especially in the regions just south of the river. winds
dots show the onset of the summer monsoon.
dots show the onset of the summer monsoon.
are intensified during QBO westerly phases and bring more moisture to
5 5 are intensified during QBO westerly phases and bring more moisture to
mainland China.
China.
QBOmainland
and Summer
Monsoons
Monsoons
Monsoons––Insurance
InsuranceImplications
Implications
Natural Hazards in China TransRe White Paper
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
5 Each year, economic losses in China due to drought and floods average 200
Each year, economic losses in China due to drought and floods average 200
billion Yuan (~US $24 billion). The 1998 summer floods in the Yangtze River
billion Yuan (~US $24 billion). The 1998 summer floods in the Yangtze River
Basin and the Songhua and Nen River Valley created losses of
Basin and the Songhua and Nen River Valley created losses of
approximately 260 billion Yuan (~US $31 billion). All values above are
approximately 260 billion Yuan (~US $31 billion). All values above are
represented in 1998 currency exchange rates.
represented in 1998 currency exchange rates.
4
Figure 4. Climatological precipitation rates in
sequence from early May to early June. Light and
Figure
4. Climatological
rates
in
dark shadings
represent precipitation
rainfall regions
greater
sequence
from
early
May
to
early
June.
Light
and
than 5 mm/day and 10 mm/day, respectively. Black
dark show
shadings
represent
rainfall
regions
greater
dots
the onset
of the
summer
monsoon.
than 5 mm/day and 10 mm/day, respectively. Black
dots show the onset of the summer monsoon.
Figure 4. Climatological precipitation rates in
sequence from early May to early June. Light and
dark shadings represent rainfall regions greater
than 5 mm/day and 10 mm/day, respectively. Black
dots show the onset of the summer monsoon.
Chinaʼs summer rainfall clearly oscillates with a period of two or three years,
most notably in eastern and southern China, including the Yangtze River
Chinaʼs summer rainfall clearly oscillates with a period of two or three years,
Valley and the Huiahe River Valley, and is also seen in Northern China.
most notably in eastern and southern China, including the Yangtze River
The
Valley
and theinHuiahe
Valley,
and is
seen in Northern
variation
rainfallRiver
can be
attributed
toalso
the oscillation
of waterChina.
vapor
transfer from the South China Sea to the Asian continent. Monsoonal winds
The variation in rainfall can be attributed to the oscillation of water vapor
are intensified during QBO westerly phases and bring more moisture to
transfer from the South China Sea to the Asian continent. Monsoonal winds
mainland China.
are intensified during QBO westerly phases and bring more moisture to
mainland China.
Chinaʼs summer rainfall clearly oscillates with a period of two or three years,
most notably in eastern and southern China, including the Yangtze River
Valley and the Huiahe River Valley, and is also seen in Northern China.
Each year, economic losses in China due to drought and floods average 200
billion Yuan (~US $24 billion). The 1998 summer floods in the Yangtze River
The
in rainfalllosses
can be
oscillation
of water
vapor 200
Eachvariation
year, economic
in attributed
China duetotothe
drought
and floods
average
Basin and the Songhua and Nen River Valley created losses of
transfer
from(~US
the South
China Sea
the summer
Asian continent.
billion Yuan
$24 billion).
The to
1998
floods inMonsoonal
the Yangtzewinds
River
approximately 260 billion Yuan (~US $31 billion). All values above are
are
intensified
during QBO
phases
and
bring losses
more moisture
to
Basin
and the Songhua
andwesterly
Nen River
Valley
created
of
represented in 1998 currency exchange rates.
mainland
China.
approximately
260 billion Yuan (~US $31 billion). All values above are
represented
in
currencyofexchange
rates. floods show that six major
Climactic model1998
recreations
the 1998 summer
Monsoons – Insurance Implications
Monsoons – Insurance Implications
Monsoons
– Insurance
Implications
components came together
in a ʻperfect stormʼ
to create the severe floods in
Climactic model recreations of the 1998 summer floods show that six major
the Yangtze and Huiahe River Valleys.
components came together in a ʻperfect stormʼ to create the severe floods in
Each year, economic losses in China due to drought and floods average 200
the Yangtze and Huiahe River Valleys.
billion Yuan (~US $24 billion). The 1998 summer floods in the Yangtze River
Basin and the Songhua and Nen River Valley created losses of
approximately 260 billion Yuan (~US $31 billion). All values above are
represented in 1998 currency exchange rates.
Climactic model recreations of the 1998 summer floods show that six major
components came together in a ʻperfect stormʼ to create the severe floods in
the Yangtze and Huiahe River Valleys.
Figure 5. Diagram of the components that came together to create the 1998 severe
floods in China. Shaded areas show precipitation anomalies over 80%.
Figure 5. Diagram of the components that came together to create the 1998 severe
floods in China. Shaded areas show precipitation anomalies over 80%.
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
6 6 Chinaʼs urban planners now have an opportunity to develop sustainable
infrastructure that is capable of adapting to changes in local climate, sea
levels and post-disaster recovery needs.
Figure
5. Diagram
the components
came
together
to create
the 1998can
severe
In doing
so, theyofand
the insurersthat
who
protect
such
investments
learn
floods in China. Shaded areas show precipitation anomalies over 80%.
lessons from older infrastructure around the world that was not designed
with climactic changes in mind, and to garner best practice lessons from the
6 experiences of others.
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
Natural Hazards in China TransRe White Paper
Drought – The Science
Chinaʼs diverse climate is dominated by a monsoonal system. The warm and
wet summer monsoon is followed by a cool and dry winter monsoon that
brings a completely different weather system to China. Despite being in the
ʻtemperateʼ latitudes, Chinaʼs climactic patterns are far more complex than
other temperate regions.
5
Chinaʼs urban planners now have an opportunity to develop sustainable
infrastructure that is capable of adapting to changes in local climate, sea
levels and post-disaster recovery needs.
Chinaʼs urban planners now have an opportunity to develop sustainable
infrastructure
capable
of adapting
to changes
local climate,
In doing so, that
theyisand
the insurers
who protect
suchininvestments
cansea
learn
levels
andfrom
post-disaster
recovery needs.
lessons
older infrastructure
around the world that was not designed
with climactic changes in mind, and to garner best practice lessons from the
Inexperiences
doing so, they
and the insurers who protect such investments can learn
of others.
lessons from older infrastructure around the world that was not designed
with climactic changes in mind, and to garner best practice lessons from the
experiences of others.
Drought – The Science
Chinaʼs diverse climate is dominated by a monsoonal system. The warm and
Drought
– Theis followed
Science
wet summer monsoon
by a cool and dry winter monsoon that
brings a completely different weather system to China. Despite being in the
Introduction
Chinaʼs
diverse
climateChinaʼs
is dominated
by apatterns
monsoonal
system.
The warmthan
and
ʻtemperateʼ
latitudes,
climactic
are far
more complex
wet
summer
monsoon
is followed by a cool and dry winter monsoon that
other
temperate
regions.
Worldwide
losses
from natural
catastrophes
were $140
billion
in in the
bringseconomic
a completely
different
weather
system to China.
Despite
being
2013 ʻtemperateʼ
(events
including
Australia
Drought,
US
Wildfire
and
Egyptian
Snow),
climactic
areaccounts
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The yearlylatitudes,
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and retreat
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monsoons
the timing
of which
68%
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uninsured.
These
figures are
down fromthis
2011
other
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regions.
quantity
of rainfall
across
the country.
Conversely,
also(Texas
means the
Drought, Thailand Floods, Hurricane Irene), when 72% of the $380 billion
monsoonʼs movement dictates when and where droughts hit China.
economic
lossesadvance
were uninsured.
While
recent
total losses
from natural
The yearly
and retreat
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monsoons
accounts
for the timing and
catastrophes
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below
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they
represent
major
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quantity
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Geographically,
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for insurers,
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monsoonʼs
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This growth
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Geographically,
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cold
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specifically,
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year,
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coming
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to worldʼs
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largest
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the
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the Qin
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rain,
rainfall
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for
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Figure 6. Elevation map of China, in meters. and isreliable,
exposed
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plethora
of natural
It is extremely
increasing
the
chances
ofcatastrophes.
a-drought
occurring.
has recently
on the
upswing
17 widespread
droughts have hit China
important
that1949.
further
research
is most
performed
to improve
the ability
of the of Jilin,
since
Droughts
are
common
in the northern
provinces
China
has
suffered
large-scale
droughts
for
thousands
ofbetter
years.
The trend
government
planners,
businesses
and
citizens
to
Liaoning,
Hebei,(re)insurers,
Shanxi,
Henan,
Shandong,
Inner
Mongolia,
Gansu
and
Figure 6. Elevation map of China, in meters.
has
recently
beenwheat
theand
upswing
- 17the
widespread
droughts
have
hit China
understand
the impact
ofonnatural
disasters,
and
to calibrate
mitigation
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Qinghai,
where
corn are
most
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grown
crops.
since 1949. Droughts are most common in the northern provinces of Jilin,
ChinaLiaoning,
isHistorically,
experiencing
rapid
industrialization
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urbanization
of theGansu
Hebei,
Shanxi,
Henan,
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Inner and
Mongolia,
and but
droughts
were
confined
to
Northern
Northwest
China,
Historically, only 5% of economic
population.
A
number
of
these
major
population
centers
are
coastal
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wheat
andthe
corn
are the
commonly
grown cities;
crops.affecting
over thewhere
past 30
years,
impact
hasmost
become
more widespread,
loss from natural catastrophes has
exposing
them
potential
events
aswhich
risingwere
sea levels,
flooding
areas
in to
the
Northeast
and such
South,
previously
veryand
moist regions.
been recovered from insurers in
Historically,
droughts
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to Northern and Northwest China, but
increasingly
frequent
and severe
windstorms.
China, whereas 20-40% is
over
years,variations
the impact
has become
more
widespread,occurs
affecting
Duethe
to past
large30
annual
in rainfall,
drought
in Huanghuai
more
At theareas
same
these developing
urban
areas
arepreviously
benefiting
from
recovered in more established
the Yangtze
Northeast
and Basin
South,
which
very
moist regions.
often.intime,
The
River
and
thewere
Henan
and Anhui
Provinces,
which
significant
investments
infrastructure
and other
projects
in hard
transport
(hightimes
were
previously in
unaffected
by drought,
have
been hit
multiple
markets.
Due
to
large
annual
variations
in
rainfall,
drought
in
Huanghuai
occurs
speed rail,
highways
since
2000. and airports), power (generation and transmission) andmore
often.
The
Yangtze River
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success, as minimum rainfall requirements and nutrient content in soils are
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Winter
Storms – The Science
2 Extratropical Cyclones (ETC) are mid-latitude cyclones that derive their
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Winter Storms – Insurance Implications
Winter Storms – Insurance Implications
Knowing the area of potential ETC development, insurers in China should be
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Winter
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– Insurance
Implications
Winter
Storms
– Insurance
Implications
Cyclogenesis- The development or
strengthening of cyclonic circulation
in the atmosphere (an area of low
pressure).
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Knowing the area of potential ETC development, insurers in China should be
around East
Asia. the area of potential ETC development, insurers in China should be
Knowing
able to assist in loss mitigation, while better knowledge will also encourage
able to assist in loss mitigation, while better knowledge will also encourage
development
in areas
less to
affected
by theSiberian
conditions.
1. socioeconomic
The
western area
of cyclogenesis
refers
western
socioeconomic
development
in areas
lessthe
affected
by the conditions.
o
o
o
Plain (55 N-75 N, 60 E)
ETCs are generated more in central and eastern areas than in the west. For
2. The
central
refersmore
to Mongolia,
more
to the
south
ETCs
are area
generated
in central
and specifically
eastern areas
than
in the west. For
affected areas, more storms are generated in spring (there is no ETC
ofaffected
Lake Baikal
areas, more storms are generated in spring (there is no ETC
genesis in the West in summer at all). With the end of summer/beginning of
3. The
eastern
areaWest
refers
the east
of the
genesis
in the
in to
summer
at coast
all). With
theChina-Northwest
end of summer/beginning of
autumn, genesis increases dramatically in each area.
Pacific
Ocean
border
autumn,
genesis
increases dramatically in each area.
In the eastern area, there is a southward shift of ETC genesis and track in
In the eastern area, there is a southward shift of ETC genesis and track in
the winter. This means a greater chance of storms tracking into Shanghai
the winter. This means a greater chance of storms tracking into Shanghai
and Qingdao, where insurance penetration is above average.
and Qingdao, where insurance penetration is above average.
Winter Storms – Insurance Implications
Knowing the area of potential ETC development, insurers in China should be
able to assist in loss mitigation, while better knowledge will also encourage
socioeconomic development in areas less affected by the conditions.
ETCs are generated more in central and eastern areas than in the west. For
affected areas, more storms are generated in spring (there is no ETC
genesis in the West in summer at all). With the end of summer/beginning of
autumn, genesis increases dramatically in each area.
In the eastern area, there is a southward shift of ETC genesis and track in
the winter. This means a greater chance of storms tracking into Shanghai
and Qingdao, where insurance penetration is above average.
10 Figure 10. Starting position of cyclone tracks in East Asia. Inverted triangles represent
10 the
starting
point
of
each
track;
slashed
lines
represent
areas
of
influence.
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper Many of the storm tracks go right through some of the most heavily
populated provinces in China, along the East China Sea. Additionally, these
tracks match up with locations of areas where explosively-deepening
cyclones occur most frequently, and where ETCs track the furthest over
land.
All these findings correspond to the potential for greater insured loss per
storm, as insurance penetration continues to grow. Risk managers and
underwriters should take such facts into account as part of their overall risk
assessment.
Hazards
in China
TransRe
White
Paper
Natural Natural
Hazards
in China
| TransRe
White
Paper
Island Arc – Known as the First
Island Chain, the island arcs are a
series of major archipelagos that
extend from the East Asian
Earthquakes – The Science
10 Chinaʼs highly active tectonic regime makes the country one of the most
earthquake-prone in the world. The continental margins that represent
Chinaʼs tectonic borders are not a single boundary line, rather than a
complicated amalgamation of transitional crusts, composed of continental
and transitional plates of different widths. The island arcs further complicate
9
ManyMany
of theofstorm
tracks
go right
through
somesome
of theofmost
heavily
the storm
tracks
go right
through
the most
heavily
populated
provinces
in China,
alongalong
the East
China
Sea.Sea.
Additionally,
thesethese
populated
provinces
in China,
the East
China
Additionally,
tracks
match
up with
locations
of areas
where
explosively-deepening
tracks
match
up with
locations
of areas
where
explosively-deepening
cyclones
occuroccur
mostmost
frequently,
and where
ETCsETCs
tracktrack
the furthest
over over
cyclones
frequently,
and where
the furthest
land.land.
findings
correspond
to thetopotential
for greater
insured
loss loss
per per
All these
All these
findings
correspond
the potential
for greater
insured
storm,
as insurance
penetration
continues
to grow.
Risk Risk
managers
and and
storm,
as insurance
penetration
continues
to grow.
managers
underwriters
should
take take
suchsuch
factsfacts
into account
as part
their
overall
risk risk
underwriters
should
into account
as of
part
of their
overall
assessment.
assessment.
Current studies of Chinese ETCs cover the tracking, climatic characteristics,
Figure movement
10. Starting position
of cyclone
tracks in East Asia. Inverted
triangles
intensity,
and areas
of explosively-deepening
cyclones.
The represent
the
starting
point
of
each
track;
slashed
lines
represent
areas
of
influence.
findings show that there are three main areas of ETC development in and
around
Easthighly
Asia.
Chinaʼs
active
tectonic
regime
makes
the country
one of
theofmost
Chinaʼs
highly
active
tectonic
regime
makes
the country
one
the most
Island
Arc Arc
– Known
as the
Island
– Known
as First
the First Many of the storm tracks go right through some of the most heavily
earthquake-prone
in theinworld.
The continental
margins
that represent
earthquake-prone
the world.
The continental
margins
that represent
CyclogenesisThe
or aare a populated
Island
Chain,
thedevelopment
island
arcsarcs
are
provinces
in China,
along the East
China
Sea.
Additionally,
these
Island
Chain,
the island
1. Chinaʼs
The
western
area
of
cyclogenesis
refers
to the
western
Siberian
Chinaʼs
tectonic
borders
are
not
single
boundary
line,
rather
than than
a a
tectonic
borders
areanot
a single
boundary
line,
rather
o
o
o
match(55
upN-75
with locations
of areas where explosively-deepening
strengthening
ofofcyclonic
circulation
series
of major
archipelagos
that that tracks
series
major
archipelagos
Plain
N, 60 of
E) transitional
complicated
amalgamation
crusts,
composed
of continental
complicated
amalgamation
of transitional
crusts,
composed
of continental
cyclones
occur
most
frequently,
and wheremore
ETCsspecifically
track the furthest
over
in the
atmosphere
(an
area
of
low
extend
from
the
East
Asian
2.
The
central
area
refers
to
Mongolia,
to further
thecomplicate
south
extend from the East Asian
and transitional
plates
of different
widths.
The island
arcs arcs
further
and transitional
plates
of different
widths.
The island
complicate
land.
of Lake
Baikal
pressure).
continental
mainland
coast.
continental
mainland
coast.
Chinese
tectonic
architecture.
Chinese
tectonic
architecture.
3. The eastern area refers to the east coast of the China-Northwest
All these findings correspond to the potential for greater insured loss per
Pacific
Ocean
The various
rifts
and
margins
create
a complex
collage
of subduction-related
The
various
riftsborder
and margins
create
a complex
collage
of subduction-related
storm, as insurance penetration continues to grow. Risk managers and
zones.
The principal
geotectonic
provinces
are: The
China
Craton,
zones.
The principal
geotectonic
provinces
are: North
The North
China
Craton,
underwriters should take such facts into account as part of their overall risk
Yangtze
Craton,
Cathaysia
BlockBlock
(South
China
Block),
Tarim
Craton,
AltayYangtze
Craton,
Cathaysia
(South
China
Block),
Tarim
Craton,
Altayassessment.
Tianshan-Hinggan
oregens
(Altaids),
Kunlung-Qinlang
fold
belt,
South
China
Tianshan-Hinggan
oregens
(Altaids),
Kunlung-Qinlang
fold
belt,
South
China
Convergent
- Boundary
where
Convergent
- Boundary
where
Fold
Belt,
the
Himalayan,
Qingai-Yunnan
and
Gandise
fold
belts.
Together,
Fold
Belt,
the
Himalayan,
Qingai-Yunnan
and
Gandise
fold
belts.
Together,
two two
or more
tectonic
plates
of of
or more
tectonic
plates
the interaction
of these
tectonic
zones
accounts
for millions
of years
of of
the interaction
of these
tectonic
zones
accounts
for millions
of years
the lithosphere
collide.
the lithosphere
collide.
tumultuous
geologic
history.
Knowingtumultuous
the area ofgeologic
potentialhistory.
ETC development, insurers in China should be
Chinaʼs
highly
active
tectonicwhile
regime
makes
the country
the most
able
to
assist
in
loss
mitigation,
better
knowledge
will one
also of
encourage
SubductionArea
at
SubductionArea
Island
Arc – Known
asat
the First
The
five
major
tectonic
principalities
in
China
(North
China,
South
China,
The
five
major
tectonic
principalities
in
China
(North
China,
South
China,
earthquake-prone
in the world.
Theless
continental
that represent
development
in areas
affectedmargins
by the conditions.
convergent
boundaries
Island
Chain,
theboundaries
island where
arcswhere
are a socioeconomic
convergent
Godwana,
which
are
continental,
Siberian-Mongolian
and
the
Western
Godwana,
which
are
continental,
Siberian-Mongolian
and
the
Western
Chinaʼs tectonic borders are not a single boundary line, rather than a
one one
plate
moves
below
another
moves
below
another
series
ofplate
major
archipelagos
that
Pacific,
which
are more
continental
create
thecomposed
most
earthly
stresses
Pacific,
which
are continental
margins)
create
the
most
earthly
stresses
complicated
amalgamation
of margins)
transitional
crusts,
of
continental
ETCs
are
generated
in central
and
eastern
areas
than
in the
west.
For
tectonic
plate.
extend
from
the
East Asian
tectonic
plate.
through
subduction
and
convergent
crustal
zones.
through
subduction
crustal
zones.
and transitional
plates
ofand
different
widths.in
The
island
arcsisfurther
complicate
affected
areas, more
storms
areconvergent
generated
spring
(there
no ETC
continental mainland coast.
Chinese
tectonic
genesis
in the
West architecture.
in summer at all). With the end of summer/beginning of
Geothermal
- Thermal
energy
One One
tectonic
domain
consists
of theofNorth
China
continental
margin
in thein the
Geothermal
- Thermal
energy autumn,
tectonic
domain
consists
theeach
North
China
continental
margin
genesis
increases
dramatically
in
area.
south
and
the
Siberian-Mongolian
continental
margin
in
the
north.
These
run run
generated
and
stored
in
the
south
and
the
Siberian-Mongolian
continental
margin
in
the
north.
These
The various rifts and margins create a complex collage of subduction-related
generated and stored in the
from
the
western
Aibi-Juyan
zone
to
the
northern
slope
of
North
TIanshan
to to
from
the
western
Aibi-Juyan
zone
to
the
northern
slope
of
North
TIanshan
zones.
The area,
principal
geotectonic
provinces
are:
Thegenesis
North China
Craton,
In the
eastern
there
is a southward
shift of
ETC
and track
in
earth.
earth.
Beishan,
and
the
eastern
Suolun-Xilamulun
zone
crossing
the
border
line
on
Beishan,
and
the
eastern
Suolun-Xilamulun
zone
crossing
the
border
line
Craton,
Cathaysia
Block
(South
China Block),
Craton, Altay- on
theYangtze
winter. This
means
a greater
chance
of storms
trackingTarim
into Shanghai
the
Tumen
River
in
eastern
Jilin.
the Tumen
River
in eastern
Jilin. Kunlung-Qinlang
Lithosphere
The
crustcrust
and and
oregens
(Altaids),
fold belt, South China
Lithosphere
- The
andTianshan-Hinggan
Qingdao,
where
insurance
penetration
is above average.
Convergent
-- Boundary
where
Fold
Belt,
the
Himalayan,
Qingai-Yunnan
and
Gandise
fold belts. Together,
upper
mantle
of
the
earth.
upper
mantle
of
the
earth.
two or more tectonic plates of
Other
domains,
astectonic
the
zonezone
between
NorthNorth
and
Other
domains,
such
asconvergent
thezones
convergent
China
the
interaction
ofsuch
these
accounts
forbetween
millions
ofChina
years
of and
the lithosphere collide.
South
China
continental
boundary
run
along
the
Kunlun-Qinling
line.
The The
South
China
continental
boundary
run
along
the
Kunlun-Qinling
line.
FoldFold
BeltBelt
- Series
of of
tumultuous geologic history.
- Series
Sahngyang-Tongcheng
convergent
zonezone
of increased
tectonic
activity
runs runs
Sahngyang-Tongcheng
convergent
of increased
tectonic
activity
mountainous
foothills
formform
mountainous
SubductionAreafoothills
at that that
from
southern-Shaanxi
and
enters
the
Yellow
Sea
near
Lianyun
Harbor,
and and
frommajor
southern-Shaanxi
and enters
the Yellow
Sea
nearSouth
Lianyun
Harbor,
The five
tectonic principalities
in China
(North
China,
China,
due due
to tectonic
interactions.
to tectonic
interactions.
convergent
boundaries
where
is
divided
by
the
Tancheng-Lujiang
transcurrent
fault
in
eastern
Anhui.
is divided
by are
the continental,
Tancheng-Lujiang
transcurrent fault
Anhui.
Godwana,
which
Siberian-Mongolian
and in
theeastern
Western
one plate moves below another
Pacific, which are continental margins) create the most earthly stresses
The East
China
Continental
Margin
Domain
is a part
of theofgiant,
transThesubduction
East
China
Continental
Margin
Domain
is a part
the giant,
transtectonic plate.
through
and
convergent
crustal
zones.
Pacific
volcanic
belt. belt.
The dominant
section
comprises
the 450
year year
Pacific
volcanic
The dominant
section
comprises
the million
450 million
Geothermal - Thermal energy
One old
tectonic
consists ofand
the fold
North
China
continental
in the
Southdomain
China Mountains
belts
stretching
frommargin
the southeastern
southcoastal
and the
Siberian-Mongolian
continental
margin
in the north.
These run
generated and stored in the
region
to the Nadanhada
Mountains
in Northeast
China.
11 11 from the western Aibi-Juyan zone to the northern slope of North TIanshan to
earth.
Each
of these
tectonicSuolun-Xilamulun
lines is intimatelyzone
intertwined
with
geologic
Beishan,
and
the eastern
crossing
thethe
border
line on
Natural
Hazards
in China
| TransRe
WhiteWhite
PaperPaper
evolution
of China.
Almost
every major recorded earthquake in China, in
Natural
Hazards
in- The
China
| TransRe
the Tumen
River
in eastern
Jilin.
Lithosphere
crust
and
both ancient and modern times, has been a result of changes in tectonic
upper mantle of the earth.
Otherarchitecture.
domains, such as the convergent zone between North China and
South
China continental boundary run along the Kunlun-Qinling line. The
Fold Belt - Series of
The major earthquakes
have occurred
subduction
zones
and runs
Sahngyang-Tongcheng
convergent
zone ofover
increased
tectonic
activity
mountainous foothills that form
convergent
zones.
Crustal
development
in
China
is
very
active;
geothermal
from southern-Shaanxi and enters the Yellow Sea near Lianyun Harbor,
and
due to tectonic interactions.
events
and
tectonics
movements
have
caused
earthquakes
numerous
times
is divided by the Tancheng-Lujiang transcurrent fault in eastern Anhui.
in the past ten years, just as socioeconomic development has burgeoned.
The East China Continental Margin Domain is a part of the giant, transPacific volcanic belt. The dominant section comprises the 450 million year
Earthquakes
– The
Science
Earthquakes
– The
Science
Winter Storms – Insurance Implications
Earthquakes – The Science
Earthquakes – Insurance Implications
Natural Hazards in China TransRe White Paper
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
10 Looking at the historical catalog of catastrophic Chinese earthquakes, some
11 major trends come to light. Almost all earthquakes occur along known, active
fault lines. However, the historical data does not provide insurers with the
most important information: predictions of long-term seismic hazards in
China.
Since high-risk areas with significant exposures have not experienced major
10
Each of these tectonic lines is intimately intertwined with the geologic
Each of these tectonic lines is intimately intertwined with the geologicboth ancient
evolution of China. Almost every major recorded earthquake in China, in
evolution of China. Almost every major recorded earthquake in China,architecture.
in
both ancient and modern times, has been a result of changes in tectonic
both ancient and modern times, has been a result of changes in tectonic
architecture.
architecture.
and modern
The major earthquakes
The major earthquakes have occurred over subduction zones and
The major earthquakes have occurred over subduction zones and convergent zones. Crus
convergent zones. Crustal development in China is very active; geothermal
convergent zones. Crustal development in China is very active; geothermal
events
events and tectonics movements have caused earthquakes numerous
times and tectonics mo
events and tectonics movements have caused earthquakes numerous times
in the past ten years, just as socioeconomic development has burgeoned.
in the past ten years,
jus
old South
C
in the past ten years, just as socioeconomic development has burgeoned.
old South China Mountains and fold belts
stretching
coastal
reg
old South China Mountains and fold belts stretching from the southeastern
coastal region to the Nadanhada Mountains in Nort
coastal region to the Nadanhada Mountains in Northeast China.
Each of the
Each of these tectonic lines is intimatelyevolution
intertwined
of
Looking
at the historical
catalogintertwined
of catastrophic
Chinese
earthquakes, some
Each of Looking
these
tectonic
is intimately
withChinese
the
geologic
at the lines
historical
catalog of
catastrophic
earthquakes,
some every major recorded
evolution
of
China.
Almost
ea
both
ancien
major
trends
come to light.
Almost
all earthquakes
occur
along known, active
evolutionmajor
of
China.
Almost
major
recorded
earthquake
in
China,
trends
comeevery
to light.
Almost
all earthquakes
occur
alonginand
known,
active
ancient
a result o
Looking
athas
thebeen
historical
architecture
fault
lines.
However,
the
historical
data does
notboth
provide
insurers modern
with
the times,
both ancient
and
modern
times,
has
been
a
result
of
changes
in
tectonic
fault lines. However, the historical data does not provide
insurers
with
the
architecture.
most important information: predictions of long-term seismic hazards
in
major
trends come to lig
architecture.
most important information: predictions of long-term seismic hazards in
The major e
China.
faulthave
lines.
However,
the
The major earthquakes
occurred
over
subduc
China.
convergent
The major earthquakes have occurred over subduction zones and
convergent
zones. most
Crustal
developmentevents
in China
is
and
important
informat
Since
high-risk
areas
with significant
exposures
have not
experienced
major
convergent
zones.
Crustal
development
in China
is very have
active;
geothermal
Since
high-risk
areas
with significant
exposures
not
experienced
major
events
and
tectonics
movements
have
caused
eart
in
the
past
earthquakes
in recent history,
underwriters
must combat
buyer
complacency
events and
tectonics in
movements
haveunderwriters
caused
earthquakes
numerous
times
China.
earthquakes
recent history,
must combat
buyer
in the past
tencomplacency
years, just as socioeconomic develo
and
disbelief
in applied
science. development has burgeoned.
in the past
ten
years,
just
as
socioeconomic
and disbelief in applied science.
Earthquakes––Insurance
InsuranceImplications
Implications
Earthquakes
Earthquakes
–
Earthq
Earthquakes
–
Insurance
Imp
Earthquakes – Insurance Implications
high-risk areas wi
Combining knowledge of lithospheric strain rate with high resolutionSince
soil
Combining knowledge of lithospheric strain rate with high resolution soil
maps is one way to determine areas most prone to earthquake risk.
hi
Looking at
maps is one way to determine areas most prone to earthquake risk. earthquakes in recent
Factoring tectonic strain and soil composition into
risk equations
will
Looking
at
the
historical
catalog
of
catastrophic
Chi
trends
tectonic
strain and soil composition
into risk equations
will and disbelief in major
applied
Looking Factoring
atdetermine
the historical
Chinese
some
Figure 11. Major geological units and their relative
the catalog
intensityofofcatastrophic
ground shaking
givenearthquakes,
strength
of earthquake.
Figure 11. Major geological units and their relative
major
trends
come to light. Almost all earthquakes
fault
lines.
H
determine
the
intensity
of
ground
shaking
given
strength
of
earthquake.
motion (mm/yr) with respect to stable regionsmajor trends come to light. Almost all earthquakes occur along known, active
motion (mm/yr) with respect to stable regions
fault lines. However, the historical data does
not
pro
most
impor
nearby. Thin lines represent active faults. fault lines.Earthquakes
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data does
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all magnitudes
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Combining
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o
nearby. Thin lines represent active faults.
mostwhether
important
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predictions
of
long-term
Earthquakes of all magnitudes can destroy structures,
finished
or
China.
most important
predictions
of long-term
in lines, in that
underinformation:
construction.
Once again,
CAR/EARseismic
differs hazards
from other
under construction. Once again, CAR/EAR differsChina.
from other lines, inmaps
that
is one way to dete
China.
structures are at different susceptibilities to quake through the phases of
Since highstructures are at different susceptibilities to quake through the phases of
Factoring
tectonic
strain
construction.
Since
high-risk
areas
with
significant
exposures
hav
earthquake
construction.
Since high-risk
areas11.
withMajor
significant
exposures
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major
Figure
geological
units
and
relative
determine
the intensity
earthquakes in recent
history, underwriters
must
coo
and disbelie
earthquakes
in recent
underwriters
must
combat
buyer
complacency
Much
of the history,
CAR/EAR
business
involves
mid-rise
masonry
or mid-to highmotion
respect
to stable
regions
and
disbelief
in applied
Much
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CAR/EARwith
business
involves
mid-rise
masonry
or mid-to
high-science.
and disbelief
applied science.
riseinreinforced
concrete
buildings. Yet
the most
prevalent structures in many
Thin
linesbuildings.
represent
faults.
risenearby.
reinforced
concrete
Yetactive
the most
prevalent structures in
many
Earthquakes
of Combining
all magn
small towns across China are unreinforced masonry
(URM) knowledge
structures.
URM
Combining
of
lithospheric strain
rate
maps
is wit
on
small
towns
across
China
are
unreinforced
masonry
(URM)
structures.
URM
Combiningstructures
knowledge
of
lithospheric
strain
rate
with
high
resolution
soil
are the most vulnerable to ground motion,
and
were
thetoprincipal
under
construction.
Onc
maps
is
one
way
determine
areas
most
prone
tote
Factoring
the mostareas
vulnerable prone
to ground
motion, and
were the principal
maps is structures
one
way
toare
determine
to earthquake
risk.
type
of structure
lost in the most
2008 Sichuan
earthquake.
Figure
11.
Major
geological
units
and
their
relative
Factoring
tectonic
strain
and
soil
composition
into
rt
determine
structures
are
at
differen
type
of structure
lost soil
in the
2008 Sichuan earthquake.
Factoring
tectonic
and
composition
risk equations
will
Figure
11. strain
Major geological
units and theirinto
relative
motion (mm/yr)
with respect
to stableof
regions
determine
the
intensity
ground
shaking
given
stre
Figure 11. Major geological units and their relative
determine
the intensity
of ground
of earthquake.
construction.
motion
(mm/yr) with
respectshaking
to stable given
regionsstrength
nearby. Thin
lines represent active
faults.
Earthquake
motion (mm/yr) with respect to stable regions
nearby. Thin lines represent active faults.
Earthquakes of all magnitudes can destroy
structur
under
cons
nearby. Thin lines represent active faults.
Earthquakes of all magnitudes can destroy structures,
whether finished or
under construction.Much
Once again,
CAR/EAR
differsbaf
of
the
CAR/EAR
structures
under construction.
Once again, CAR/EAR differs from other lines, in that
structures are at different susceptibilitiesconstruction
to quake t
rise reinforced concrete
structures are at different susceptibilities to quake through the phases of
construction.
construction.
small towns across
Much Chin
of the
Much of the CAR/EAR
business
involves
mid-rise
m
rise
reinforc
structures
are
the
most
v
Much of the CAR/EAR business involves mid-rise masonry or mid-to highrise reinforced concrete buildings. Yet the
most
pre
small
towns
rise reinforced concrete buildings. Yet the most prevalent structures in many type of structure lost in t
Figure 12. Earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or
small towns across China are unreinforced
masonra
structures
Figure 12. Earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or small towns across China are unreinforced masonry (URM) structures. URM
greater, from 1990 to 2002.
structures
are
the
most
vulnerable
to
ground
motion
type of
stru
greater, from 1990 to 2002.
structures are the most vulnerable to ground motion, and were the principal
type of structure lost in the 2008 Sichuan earthquak
12 type of structure lost in the 2008 Sichuan earthquake.
12 Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
Figure 12. Earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or
Figure 12. Earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or greater, from 1990 to 2002.
greater,
from 12.
1990Earthquakes
to 2002.
Figure
of magnitude 5.0 or
Figure 12. Earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or
greater, from 1990 to 2002.
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
Natural Hazards in China TransRe White Paper
Utilizing earthquake maps is the best way
to comprehend how complex plate
greater, from 1990 to 2002.
tectonic schematics might act in future years. Geotectonic science
12 is among
the most difficult to fathom and predict,
but
is
one
area
where
understanding
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
the history
does
help in| predicting
future
scenarios.
Natural
Hazards
in China
TransRe White
Paper
Contacts
Natural Hazards in China
| TransRe White Paper
To discuss any of the contents of this paper, please contact the author:
11
Utilizing earthquake maps is the best way to comprehend how complex plate
tectonic schematics might act in future years. Geotectonic science is among
the most difficult to fathom and predict, but is one area where understanding
the history does help in predicting future scenarios.
Contacts
Utilizing earthquake maps is the best way to comprehend how complex plate
tectonic schematics might act in future years. Geotectonic science is among
the most difficult to fathom and predict, but is one area where understanding
To discuss any of the contents of this paper, please contact the author:
the history does help in predicting future scenarios.
James Rohman
Global Catastrophe Management, New York
Contacts
T: 1 (212) 365 2438
To discuss anyE:
of [email protected]
the contents of this paper, please contact the author:
James Rohman
To Global
discussCatastrophe
the implications
of this paper,
your reinsurance needs in
Management,
Newand
York
response, please contact:
T: 1 (212) 365 2438
Robert Baldrey
E: [email protected]
Chief Catastrophe Officer, New York
To discuss the T:
implications
of 2004
this paper, and your reinsurance needs in
1 (212) 365
response, please
contact:
E: [email protected]
Robert Baldrey
Andy TaylorOfficer, New York
Chief Catastrophe
Chief Underwriting Officer, Asia-Pacific Region
T: 1 (212) 365 2004
E: [email protected]
T: +44-20-7204-8604
E: [email protected] Andy Taylor
Chief Underwriting Officer, Asia-Pacific Region
Rob Saville
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TransRe Singapore
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TransRe Singapore
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6589 8288
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Citations
AIR Worldwide
Aon Benfield
Citations
Associated Press
AIR Worldwide
Chan, Johnny., ʻThe East Asian summer monsoon: an overviewʼ, 2004.
Aon Benfield
China-travel-guide.com
Associated Press
China National Bureau of Statistics Database
Chan, Johnny., ʻThe East Asian summer monsoon: an overviewʼ, 2004.
Design by IncDesign
China-travel-guide.com
Guy Carpenter
China National Bureau of Statistics Database
Huang, Ronghui, ʻCharacteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon
Designsystem
by IncDesign
and its impacts on climate disasters in Chinaʼ, 2007.
Guy Carpenter
Liu et al., ʻActive tectonics and intracontinental earthquakes in China: The
kinematics and geodynamicsʼ, Continental Intraplate Earthquakes: Science,
Huang,Hazard
Ronghui,
and variations
of the
East Asian
monsoon
and ʻCharacteristics
Policy Issues: Geological
Society
of America
Speical
Paper,
system2007.
and its impacts on climate disasters in Chinaʼ, 2007.
Liu et al.,
ʻActive tectonics
intracontinental
in China:
TheStudies,
University
of Northand
Carolina
at Chapelearthquakes
Hill, Urban and
Regional
kinematics
and
geodynamicsʼ,
Continental
Intraplate
Earthquakes:
Science,
Program on Chinese Cities
Hazard and Policy Issues: Geological Society of America Speical Paper,
2007. US Geological Survey
University
ofal.,
North
Carolina
at Chapel
Hill,on
Urban
Regional
Wu et
ʻGrowing
typhoon
influence
East and
Asiaʼ,
2005. Studies,
Program on Chinese Cities
Yingxian et al., ʻA Climatology of Extratropical Cyclones over East Asia
US Geological
Survey 2011.
During 1958-2001ʼ,
Wu et al., ʻGrowing typhoon influence on East Asiaʼ, 2005.
Yingxian et al., ʻA Climatology of Extratropical Cyclones over East Asia
During 1958-2001ʼ, 2011.
14 Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
14 Natural Hazards in China TransRe White Paper
Natural Hazards in China | TransRe White Paper
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