11/8/2016 The Federalism Project in the Philippines: Cautionary Insights from the Institutional Design Literature Gene Lacza Pilapil 1 11/8/2016 Acknowledgements I would like to thank Mrs. Maria Isabel G. Ongpin and the Ateneo de Manila University for having me as the speaker for this year’s Jaime V Ongpin Annual Memorial Lecture, which I consider as the most prestigious annual memorial lecture in the country. 2 11/8/2016 Equally important, I am honored to be associated with the legacy of Mr. Jaime V Ongpin who fought the Marcos dictatorship when it was neither the popular nor the profitable thing to do at that time. His example should continue to inspire this generation of public intellectuals as this country’s democracy is now once again threatened by another authoritarian challenge and another regime of untruth. I would also like to thank everyone in the audience. Although the topic is a worrying one, it should nevertheless be a most happy day for me. Among the audience are former professors, former students, (some of whom are covering the lecture for the different media outlets), current students (who braved Makati traffic without being required nor enticed by any bonus grade), colleagues, and old-time friends. A million thanks to everyone for attending. 3 11/8/2016 Three Main Aims of the Lecture 1. Give a working knowledge of a federal political system 4 11/8/2016 2. Introduce the importance of the institutional design literature to the Philippine charter change debate, thereby helping elevate the level of the debate. 3. Give fair warning on the grave dangers of constitutional overhauls based on the nature of institutions and institutional changes as seen from the vantage point of the institutional design literature. 5 11/8/2016 Outline of the Lecture Outline I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature II. What is federalism? III. Why and why not federalism? IV. Three cautionary insights from the institutional design literature for the federalism project in the Philippines (and the overall charter change campaign) 6 11/8/2016 I. Short Introduction to the Institutional Design Literature I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature formal rules institutions rules that influence the strategies of state and social actors “written down somewhere as laws, regulations, constitutions, treaties, and so forth” (John M. Carey) “parchment institutions” 7 11/8/2016 I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature formal rules institutions rules that influence the strategies of state and social actors “written down somewhere as laws, regulations, constitutions, treaties, and so forth” (John M. Carey) “parchment institutions” meta-institution: constitution 8 11/8/2016 I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature formal rules institutions rules that influence the strategies of state and social actors “written down somewhere as laws, regulations, constitutions, treaties, and so forth” (John M. Carey) “parchment institutions” meta-institution: constitution I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature differences in the arrangement of formal rules one basic example: form of government relation between the executive and legislative horizontal institutional design of a country’s form of government If separated = presidential If fused = parliamentary If hybrid = semi-presidential 9 11/8/2016 I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, system of government studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions 10 11/8/2016 I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, system of government electoral system, studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, system of government electoral system, party system, studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions 11 11/8/2016 I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, system of government electoral system, party system, legislative structure, studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, system of government electoral system, party system, legislative structure, judicial system, studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions 12 11/8/2016 I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, system of government electoral system, party system, legislative structure, judicial system, and constitutional bodies studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, system of government electoral system, party system, legislative structure, judicial system, and constitutional bodies studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions 13 11/8/2016 I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, system of government electoral system, party system, legislative structure, judicial system, and constitutional bodies studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions affects or will affect, among others, I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, system of government electoral system, party system, legislative structure, judicial system, and constitutional bodies studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions affects or will affect, among others, the accountability, 14 11/8/2016 I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, system of government electoral system, party system, legislative structure, judicial system, and constitutional bodies studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions affects or will affect, among others, the accountability, representation, I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, system of government electoral system, party system, legislative structure, judicial system, and constitutional bodies studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions affects or will affect, among others, the accountability, representation, popular empowerment, 15 11/8/2016 I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, system of government electoral system, party system, legislative structure, judicial system, and constitutional bodies studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions affects or will affect, among others, the accountability, representation, popular empowerment, elite capture, I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature such as the form of government, system of government electoral system, party system, legislative structure, judicial system, and constitutional bodies studies how the design (or redesign) of a country’s political institutions affects or will affect, among others, the accountability, representation, popular empowerment, elite capture, and coherent policymaking of the state 16 11/8/2016 I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature other terms “constitutional engineering literature” “constitutional design literature” “institutional approach” “new institutionalism” I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature counts some of the biggest names in the political science discipline Today’s lecture would recruit supporting arguments from, among others: Matthew Shugart John M. Carey Scott Mainwaring Robert Kaufman Stephan Haggard George Tsebelis Giovanni Sartori 17 11/8/2016 I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature counts some of the biggest names in the political science discipline Today’s lecture would recruit supporting arguments from, among others: including winners of the Johan Skytte Prize in Political Science "to the scholar who in the view of the Foundation has made the most valuable contribution to political science” 18 11/8/2016 I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature counts some of the biggest names in the political science discipline Today’s lecture would recruit supporting arguments from, among others: including winners of the Johan Skytte Prize in Political Science Arend Lijphart (1997) Rein Taagepera (2008) Adam Przeworski (2010) Jon Elster (2016) 19 11/8/2016 I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature Juan Linz (1996) counts some of the biggest names in the political science discipline Today’s lecture would recruit supporting arguments from, among others: including winners of the Johan Skytte Prize in Political Science Arend Lijphart (1997) Rein Taagepera (2008) Adam Przeworski (2010) Jon Elster (2016) II. What is Federalism? 20 11/8/2016 II.A. Definition of Terms Most famous definition of federalism is the shortest one Daniel Elazar in his 1987 book, Exploring Federalism 21 11/8/2016 Most famous definition of federalism is the shortest one Daniel Elazar in his 1987 book, Exploring Federalism “The simplest possible definition is self-rule plus shared rule.” italicized part repeated like a mantra in most discussions of federalism 22 11/8/2016 Most famous definition of federalism is the shortest one Daniel Elazar in his 1987 book, Exploring Federalism “The simplest possible definition is self-rule plus shared rule.” divided powers shared sovereignty Another famous definition of federalism William H. Riker in his 1975 article, “Federalism” in Handbook of Political Science, Volume Five 23 11/8/2016 Another famous definition of federalism William H. Riker in his 1975 article, “Federalism” in Handbook of Political Science, Volume Five "Federalism is a political organization in which the activities of government are divided between regional governments and a central government in such a way that each kind of government has some activities on which it makes final decisions.” 24 11/8/2016 A current definition of federalism International IDEA in its 2015 primer, “Federalism” 25 11/8/2016 A current definition of federalism International IDEA in its 2015 primer, “Federalism” “Federalism is a system of government that establishes a constitutionally specified division of powers between different levels of government.” A current definition of federalism International IDEA in its 2015 primer, “Federalism” “Federalism is a system of government that establishes a constitutionally specified division of powers between different levels of government.” 26 11/8/2016 system of government single central source of authority Unitary system of government relationship between the central government vertical subordinate to the central local government system of government Federal system of government relationship between the in certain policy areas where central government has exclusive jurisdiction central government vertical local government 27 11/8/2016 system of government Federal system of government relationship between the in certain policy areas where local government has exclusive jurisdiction local government vertical central government system of government in certain policy areas where both governments have jurisdiction (concurrent/ shared) Federal system of government relationship between the local government vertical central government 28 11/8/2016 system of government in certain policy areas where both governments have jurisdiction (concurrent/ shared) Federal system of government relationship between the central government local government vertical II.B. List of Federal Countries 29 11/8/2016 Handbook of Federal Countries in 2005 listed 25 federal countries: 30 11/8/2016 Handbook of Federal Countries in 2005 listed 25 federal countries: Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Canada Comoros Ethiopia Germany Switzerland India United Arab Emirates Malaysia United States Mexico Venezuela F.S. Micronesia Nigeria Pakistan Russia Serbia and Montenegro South Africa Spain Saint Kitts-Nevis Forum of Federations in October 2016 lists 24 federal countries: 31 11/8/2016 Forum of Federations in October 2016 lists 24 federal countries: Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Canada Ethiopia Germany India Iraq Malaysia Mexico Nepal Nigeria Pakistan Russia South Africa Spain Sudan Switzerland United Arab Emirates United States Venezuela Not in the list: Comoros F.S. Micronesia Saint Kitts-Nevis 32 11/8/2016 My Provisional List: 27 Federal States Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Canada Comoros Ethiopia Germany India Iraq Malaysia Mexico F.S. Micronesia Nepal Nigeria Pakistan Russia South Africa Spain Sudan Saint Kitts-Nevis Switzerland United Arab Emirates United States Venezuela My Provisional List: 27 Federal States Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Canada Comoros Ethiopia Germany India Iraq Malaysia Mexico F.S. Micronesia Nepal Nigeria Pakistan Russia South Africa Spain Sudan Saint Kitts-Nevis Switzerland United Arab Emirates United States Venezuela Cover 40 percent of the world’s population 33 11/8/2016 My Provisional List: 27 Federal States Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Canada Comoros Ethiopia Germany India Iraq Malaysia Mexico F.S. Micronesia Nepal Nigeria Pakistan Russia South Africa Spain Sudan Saint Kitts-Nevis Switzerland United Arab Emirates United States Venezuela Cover 40 percent of the world’s population but they constitute a minority of the total of 195 states (14%) My Provisional List: 27 Federal States Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Canada Comoros Ethiopia Germany India Iraq Malaysia Mexico F.S. Micronesia Nepal Nigeria Pakistan Russia South Africa Spain Sudan Saint Kitts-Nevis Switzerland United Arab Emirates United States Venezuela Freedom House Freedom in the World 2016 34 11/8/2016 My Provisional List: 27 Federal States Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Canada Comoros Ethiopia Germany India Iraq Malaysia Mexico F.S. Micronesia Nepal Nigeria Pakistan Russia South Africa Spain Sudan Saint Kitts-Nevis Switzerland United Arab Emirates United States Venezuela Freedom House Freedom in the World 2016 18 out of 27 of federal states are electoral democracies = 67% 35 11/8/2016 My Provisional List: 27 Federal States Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Canada Comoros Ethiopia Germany India Iraq Malaysia Mexico F.S. Micronesia Nepal Nigeria Pakistan Russia South Africa Spain Sudan Saint Kitts-Nevis Switzerland United Arab Emirates United States Venezuela Freedom House Freedom in the World 2016 18 out of 27 of federal states are electoral democracies = 67% 107 out of 195 of non-federal states are electoral democracies = 64% Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Canada Comoros Ethiopia Germany India Iraq Malaysia Mexico F.S. Micronesia Nepal Nigeria Pakistan Russia South Africa Spain Sudan Saint Kitts-Nevis Switzerland United Arab Emirates United States Venezuela Freedom House Freedom in the World 2016 18 out of 27 of federal states are electoral democracies = 67% 36 11/8/2016 II.C. Institutional Features of Federal System This section is mainly based on Ronald Watts’s 1996 book, Comparing Federal Systems in the 1990s Many texts in the slides are direct quotes from this book Did not rewrite many of his terms because of the technical nature of his arguments 37 11/8/2016 38 11/8/2016 Professor Department of Political Science University of Melbourne II.D. Six common institutional features of federal systems according to Watts 39 11/8/2016 Different scholars list different numbers of common or essential features of federalism Duchacek = Watts = lists 6 common features Galligan = lists 4 40 11/8/2016 Different scholars list different number of common or essential features of federalism Duchacek = lists 8 (“yardsticks of federalism”) Watts = lists 6 common features Galligan = lists 4 Different scholars list different number of common or essential features of federalism Duchacek = lists 8 (“yardsticks of federalism”) Watts = lists 6 common features Galligan = lists 4 41 11/8/2016 1. Orders of Government 1. two orders of government each acting directly on their citizens geographically or territorially defined constituent level a.k.a. “federal” (exs. US, Germany) “states” (exs. Australia, Malaysia, US) “provinces” (exs. Argentina, Canada) “central” (ex. South Africa) “regions” (ex. Belgium) “communities” “union government” “cantons” (ex. Switzerland) (ex. India) “autonomous communities” (ex. Spain) “national” (ex. Sudan) “Länder” (exs. Austria, Germany) federal level a.k.a. 42 11/8/2016 2. Distribution of Powers 43 11/8/2016 2. a formal constitutional distribution of powers and allocation of revenue resources between the two orders of government 2. a formal constitutional distribution of powers and allocation of revenue resources between the two orders of government a.k.a. “legislative competences” a.k.a. “jurisdiction” involves the distribution of legislative powers and executive powers between the federal and the constituent governments vary in terms of form and scope Exclusive Legislative Powers Concurrent Legislative Powers Residual Legislative Powers 44 11/8/2016 2. a formal constitutional distribution of powers and allocation of revenue resources between the two orders of government a.k.a. “legislative competences” a.k.a. “jurisdiction” involves the distribution of legislative powers and executive powers between the federal and the constituent governments vary in terms of form and scope maintenance of law and security economic taxing powers immigration defense and social affairs monetary interregional transportation international relations union 2. a formal constitutional distribution of powers and allocation of revenue resources between the two orders of government a.k.a. “legislative competences” a.k.a. “jurisdiction” involves the distribution of legislative powers and executive powers between the federal and the constituent governments vary in terms of form and scope 45 11/8/2016 Exclusive Legislative Powers the federal government exs. Canada, Spain, India, Australia, US, Argentina and Pakistan assigned only to either or the constituent government exs. Canada, Spain, and India Canada’s Constitution Federal Jurisdiction Sections 91 and 92 (10) Exs. Public Debt and Property Regulation of Trade/Commerce Unemployment Insurance Direct/Indirect Taxation Postal Service Census/Statistics Provincial Jurisdiction Sections 92, 92A, and 93 Exs. Direct Taxation within Province Management/Sale of Public Lands belonging to Province Prisons Hospitals Municipalities Formalization of Marriage Available from http://www.pco-bcp.gc.ca/aia/index.asp?lang=eng&page=federal&doc=legis-eng.htm 46 11/8/2016 Concurrent Legislative Powers a.k.a. Shared legislative powers shared between the federal and the constituent governments may be legislated by both the federal and the constituent governments in case of conflicts between them in most instances, federal legislation prevails over constituent legislation Concurrent Legislative Powers Distribution of Concurrent Legislative Power extensive areas of concurrent jurisdiction limited areas of concurrent jurisdiction Sample Country Cases Australia, Germany, India, US Canada 47 11/8/2016 Residual Legislative Powers Identify which order of government has jurisdiction over matters not specified in the constitution as exclusive or concurrent federal government constituent governments usually in federations created by the process of devolution from a formerly unitary state (“holding-together federalism”) usually in federations created by the process of aggregating previously separate units (“coming-together federalism”) Australia, Austria, Germany, Switzerland, and the US India and Canada Distribution of Powers in a Sample of Federal Countries (from IDEA) 48 11/8/2016 49 11/8/2016 50 11/8/2016 2. a formal constitutional distribution of powers and allocation of revenue resources between the two orders of government symmetrical asymmetrical one form: constitutional asymmetry all constituent governments have equal juridical status and powers differences in the status of legislative and executive powers assigned by the constitution to the constituent governments 2. a formal constitutional distribution of powers and allocation of revenue resources between the two orders of government one type of constitutional asymmetry increase the jurisdiction (autonomy) of particular constituent states concessions made to the Borneo states (Sabah and Sarawak) when they joined the Malaysian federation in 1963 asymmetrical one form: constitutional asymmetry differences in the status of legislative and executive powers assigned by the constitution to the constituent governments 51 11/8/2016 2. a formal constitutional distribution of powers and allocation of revenue resources between the two orders of government one type of constitutional asymmetry increase the jurisdiction (autonomy) of particular constituent states asymmetrical one form: constitutional asymmetry concessions made to some of the “autonomous communities” in Spain (esp. Basque Country, Catalonia, and Galicia) differences in the status of legislative and executive powers assigned by the constitution to the constituent governments 2. a formal constitutional distribution of powers and allocation of revenue resources between the two orders of government 1. tax collection and revenue raising powers 2. intergovernmental financial transfers fiscal federalism 52 11/8/2016 2. a formal constitutional distribution of powers and allocation of revenue resources between the two orders of government 1. tax collection and revenue raising powers fiscal federalism Distribution of Taxing Powers Taxing Powers Federal Customs Canada, US, Switzerland, Australia, Germany, Austria, India, Malaysia, Spain, Pakistan Excise Canada, Switzerland, Australia, Germany, Austria, Malaysia, Spain, Pakistan Concurrent Federal paramountcy Concurrent Belgium US, Belgium India Based on Watts, Comparing Federal Systems in the 1990s, Appendix A, p. 118. 53 11/8/2016 Distribution of Taxing Powers Taxing Powers Concurrent Federal Federal paramountcy Customs Canada, US, Switzerland, Australia, Germany, Austria, India, Malaysia, Spain, Pakistan Excise Canada, Switzerland, Australia, Germany, Austria, Malaysia, Spain, Pakistan Concurrent Belgium US, Belgium India Based on Watts, Comparing Federal Systems in the 1990s, Appendix A, p. 118. Distribution of Taxing Powers Taxing Powers Federal Concurrent Federal paramountcy Switzerland, Austria, US, Australia, India, Malaysia, Corporate Income Germany*, Belgium Spain, Pakistan Personal Income Austria, Malaysia US, Australia, Germany*, Belgium Sales Switzerland, Austria, Malaysia, Spain, Pakistan US, Australia, Germany*, Belgium Concurrent Canada Canada, India, Switzerland, Spain, Pakistan Canada, India Based on Watts, Comparing Federal Systems in the 1990s, Appendix A, p. 118. 54 11/8/2016 Distribution of Taxing Powers Taxing Powers Federal Concurrent Federal paramountcy Switzerland, Austria, US, Australia, India, Malaysia, Corporate Income Germany*, Belgium Spain, Pakistan Personal Income Austria, Malaysia US, Australia, Germany*, Belgium Sales Switzerland, Austria, Malaysia, Spain, Pakistan US, Australia, Germany*, Belgium Concurrent Canada Canada, India, Switzerland, Spain, Pakistan Canada, India Based on Watts, Comparing Federal Systems in the 1990s, Appendix A, p. 118. Distribution of Debt / Borrowing Powers Debt/Borrowing Powers Foreign Borrowing Domestic Borrowing Federal Austria, India, Malaysia Concurrent Federal paramountcy Concurrent Australia Canada, US, Switzerland, Germany, Spain, Pakistan Australia Canada, US, Switzerland, Germany, India, Malaysia, Spain, Pakistan Based on Watts, Comparing Federal Systems in the 1990s, Appendix A, p. 118. 55 11/8/2016 Distribution of Debt / Borrowing Powers Debt/Borrowing Powers Foreign Borrowing Domestic Borrowing Federal Austria, India, Malaysia Concurrent Federal paramountcy Concurrent Australia Canada, US, Switzerland, Germany, Spain, Pakistan Australia Canada, US, Switzerland, Germany, India, Malaysia, Spain, Pakistan Based on Watts, Comparing Federal Systems in the 1990s, Appendix A, p. 118. 2. a formal constitutional distribution of powers and allocation of revenue resources between the two orders of government 1. tax collection and revenue raising powers fiscal 2. intergovernmental financial transfers federalism a.k.a. “equalization transfers” “solidarity transfers” composed of conditional and unconditional grants roughly similar to the Philippines’ Internal Revenue Allotment 56 11/8/2016 Fiscal imbalances that every federalism has to correct 1. vertical imbalances constitutionally assigned revenues for the federal and constituent governments ≠ constitutionally assigned expenditure responsibilities for the federal and constituent governments Main reason for the vertical imbalance allocation of major taxing powers to the federal governments vs. assignment of expensive expenditures to the constituent governments Fiscal imbalances that every federalism has to correct 2. horizontal imbalances revenue capacities of different constituent governments vary inability of constituent governments to provide their citizens with services at the same level (regional imbalances) 57 11/8/2016 Correcting the horizontal and vertical imbalances financial transfers from one level of government to another constituent governments federal governments exception Germany: interstate financial transfers conditional transfers (federal transfers to constituent governments that have conditions attached to them) unconditional transfers (federal transfers to constituent governments that have no conditions attached to them) 58 11/8/2016 3. Bicameralism 59 11/8/2016 3. provision for the designated representation of distinct regional views within the federal policy-making institutions, usually provided by the particular form of the federal second chamber principle of bicameralism in federalism authoritarian regime microstate except the United Arab Emirates and Saint Kitts and Nevis, all federations are bicameral 3. provision for the designated representation of distinct regional views within the federal policy-making institutions, usually provided by the particular form of the federal second chamber Unlike the first chamber, the second chamber is the legislative institution which operates on the basis of representation as states principle of bicameralism in federalism except the United Arab Emirates and Saint Kitts and Nevis, all federations are bicameral 60 11/8/2016 Manner of Selection Implications Sample Country Case/s Manner of Selection Implications Sample Country Case/s 61 11/8/2016 Manner of Selection Implications Sample Country Case/s 4. Constitutional Entrenchment 62 11/8/2016 4. a supreme written constitution not unilaterally amendable and requiring the consent of a significant proportion of the constituent units this is the principle of constitutional entrenchment of federalism plain English: very difficult to amend its federal character require the involvement of both orders of government US, Canada, India, and Malaysia most federations require: amendments of the constitution that affect its federal character (ex. distribution of power) approval in both houses of the federal legislature + approval either by a special majority of the constituent unit legislatures or by a referendum requiring a “double majority” “federally weighted” absolute majority (Australia) (Switzerland special majority and Canada) (US, India, and Malaysia) simple majority 63 11/8/2016 require the involvement of both orders of government US, Canada, India, and Malaysia most federations require: amendments of the constitution that affect its federal character (ex. distribution of power) + approval either by a special majority of the constituent unit legislatures or by a referendum requiring a “double majority” absolute “federally simple majority weighted” majority 1. overall majority and (Australia) (Switzerland 2. majorities in a majority special majority and Canada) of constituent units (US, India, (Switzerland and Australia) and Malaysia) approval in both houses of the federal legislature 4. a supreme written constitution not unilaterally amendable and requiring the consent of a significant proportion of the constituent units clauses that cannot be changed by amendment Qualify Watts: some federal constitutions have “eternity clauses” for their federal character exs. Brazil and Germany this is the principle of constitutional entrenchment of federalism certain cases: not possible to revoke plain English: very difficult to amend its federal character 64 11/8/2016 5. Adjudication 5. an umpire (in the form of courts or provision for referendums) to rule on disputes between governments even more necessary in federations need for processes to adjudicate disputes and resolve conflicts unavoidability of overlaps of jurisdiction between governments and the consequent likelihood of intergovernmental competition and conflict referendum (Switzerland) judicial “judicialization of politics” 65 11/8/2016 5. an umpire (in the form of courts or provision for referendums) to rule on disputes between governments two types of courts supreme court constitutional court final adjudicator in relation to all laws including the constitution US, Canada, Australia, India, Malaysia, and Austria specializes in constitutional interpretation Germany, Belgium, and Spain Methods of Appointment to the Supreme Courts Methods of Appointment Sample Country Case/s appointed solely by the president but ratified by the Senate where the state electorates are equally represented US Bundesrat representing the Lӓnder appoints half the members of the Constitutional Court and the Bundestag the other half appointment by federal cabinet but required by the constitution to consult certain bodies before making the appointments Germany India and Malaysia 66 11/8/2016 Methods of Appointment to the Supreme Courts Methods of Appointment Sample Country Case/s appointed solely by the president but ratified by the Senate where the state electorates are equally represented US Bundesrat representing the Lӓnder appoints half the members of the Constitutional Court and the Bundestag the other half appointment by federal cabinet but required by the constitution to consult certain bodies before making the appointments Germany India and Malaysia Methods of Appointment to the Supreme Courts Methods of Appointment Sample Country Case/s appointed solely by the president but ratified by the Senate where the state electorates are equally represented US Bundesrat representing the Lӓnder appoints half the members of the Constitutional Court and the Bundestag the other half appointment by federal cabinet but required by the constitution to consult certain bodies before making the appointments Germany India and Malaysia 67 11/8/2016 6. Intergovernmental Collaboration 6. processes and institutions to facilitate intergovernmental collaboration for those areas where governmental responsibilities are shared or inevitably overlap two important dimensions relations between the federal and unit governments inter-unit relations exs. standing and ad hoc meetings involving ministers, legislators, officials and agencies of different governments 68 11/8/2016 Institutions of Intergovernmental Collaboration within Federations Institutions formal Forms of Institutions standing and ad hoc meetings involving ministers, legislators, officials and agencies of different governments “executive federalism” (parliamentarism) = predominant role of governmental executives (ministers and their officials) federal legislature (presidentialism) and a variety of channels e.g. extensive lobbying of federal legislator by various state and cantonal representatives interlocked federalism = there is a constitutional requirement that a considerable portion of federal legislation must be administered by the governments of the regional units (Germany) II.E. Primary and Secondary Characteristics of Federalism 69 11/8/2016 Neat Institutional Design Technique to Make Sense of the Institutional Features of Federalism 70 11/8/2016 Neat Institutional Design Technique to Make Sense of the Institutional Features of Federalism 1. Orders of Government 2. Distribution of Powers 3. Bicameralism 4. Constitutional Entrenchment 5. Adjudication 6. Intergovernmental Collaboration 7. ______________ 8. ______________ Primary characteristics Secondary characteristics (that make possible the primary characteristics) 9. onwards ______________ III. Why and Why not Federalism? 71 11/8/2016 Potential Advantages of Federalism (International IDEA, 2015) 1. Federalism is offered as an institutional solution to the problems associated with scale and diversity 2. Federal government is rooted in constitutionalism and pluralism 3. Broaden the base of power-sharing 4. Encourage innovative and pragmatic approaches to policy development 5. Reduce the burden on the central authorities 6. Share resources across geographical space 7. Develop capacity and democratic responsibility 72 11/8/2016 Potential Disadvantages of Federalism (International IDEA, 2015) 1. Duplication of work and lack of coherence 2. Additional operating costs 3. Increasing regional discrepancies of wealth, resources and outcomes 4. Harmful economic competition between sub-national units 5. Judicialization of politics Nine Potential Disadvantages of Federalism (International IDEA, 2015) 6. Potential exclusion of minorities 7. The strengthening of local elites who misuse power 8. Ineffective governance because of a lack of capacity 9. Instability and threats to democracy 73 11/8/2016 IV. Three Cautionary Insights from the Institutional Design Literature IV.1. First cautionary insight: No consensus on the superiority of one form/system to another 74 11/8/2016 there is no consensus on the superiority of the parliamentary /semi-presidential federal to the to the or presidential unitary form of government system of government or vice versa Critics of the superiority argument give two intertwined reasons: 1. Institutional bundle system of government a package of institutional features federal just a few examples: distribution of legislative/executive powers type of constitutional entrenchment design of upper house mechanisms for intergovernmental coordination unitary devil is in the details just a few examples: manner of recruitment in the national/local bureaucracy appointment powers of the president to bureaucracy level and type of decentralization level and type of devolution 75 11/8/2016 At the level of institutional bundle, helps explain performance 1. Institutional bundle system of government a package of institutional features federal just a few examples: distribution of legislative/executive powers type of constitutional entrenchment design of upper house mechanisms for intergovernmental coordination unitary devil is in the details just a few examples: manner of recruitment in the national/local bureaucracy appointment powers of the president to bureaucracy level and type of decentralization level and type of devolution At the level of institutional bundle, helps explain performance 1. Institutional bundle form of government a package of institutional features parliamentary just a few examples: type of confidence vote dissolution power of the prime minister design of legislature (unicameral/bicameral) power of legislative committees cabinet powers presidential devil is in the details just a few examples: veto power of the president legislative proactive powers of the president impeachment rules impoundment and other budgetary powers reelection rule 76 11/8/2016 Critics of the superiority argument give two intertwined reasons: how different types of institutions affect each other (e.g. how party system is affected by the electoral system) 2. Institutional configuration this means that institutions must not be analyzed independently from other institutions that may affect their functioning Critics of the superiority argument give two intertwined reasons: 2. Institutional configuration form of government performance affected by other institutions parliamentary form of government just one pair of examples: party system Westminster (SMD) electoral system PR MM presidential form of government devil is in the details party system timing of elections SMD electoral system run-off PR 77 11/8/2016 At the level of institutional design, helps explain performance 2. Institutional configuration form of government performance affected by other institutions parliamentary form of government just one pair of examples: party system Westminster (SMD) electoral system PR MM presidential form of government devil is in the details party system timing of elections SMD electoral system run-off PR At the level of institutional design, helps explain performance 2. Institutional configuration system of government performance affected by other institutions federal system of government just one pair of examples: party system electoral system devil is in the details unitary system of government party system electoral system 78 11/8/2016 Note that non-institutional factors are not yet factored here: exs. level of economic development, colonial heritage, political culture, political elite composition, length of democracy, geographical location 2. Institutional configuration system of government performance affected by other institutions federal system of government just one pair of examples: party system electoral system devil is in the details unitary system of government party system electoral system IV.2. Second cautionary insight: Reform not Overhaul 79 11/8/2016 the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government revival of institutional design questions the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government revival of institutional design questions = linked with the most recent wave of democratization where from 1974-1994: 75 countries transited to democracies including the Philippines in 1986 is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government fundamental institutional choices for new democracies: most important is the form of government role of Juan Linz’s 1990 article “The Perils of Presidentialism” 80 11/8/2016 the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government picked up by Filipino parliamentary advocates by mid-1990s, when we have already made our choice of form of government in the 1987 Constitution is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government fundamental institutional choices for new democracies: most important is the form of government role of Juan Linz’s 1990 article “The Perils of Presidentialism” 81 11/8/2016 the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government these regimes in transition have no option but to make these constitutional choices is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government fundamental institutional choices for new democracies: most important is the form of government the difficulty and danger of these choices are captured by the subtitle of role of Juan Linz’s 1990 article Jon Elster et al.’s book on postcommunist transitions in Eastern Europe “The Perils of Presidentialism” 82 11/8/2016 the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government even for most scholars arguing the superiority of parliamentary and/or federal, there is no recommendation to dump existing presidential/unitary systems the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government even for most scholars arguing the superiority of parliamentary and/or federal, there is no recommendation to dump existing presidential/unitary systems analogy: Sagada vs. Manila is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government fundamental institutional choices for new democracies: most important is the form of government role of Juan Linz’s 1990 article “The Perils of Presidentialism” is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government fundamental institutional choices for new democracies: most important is the form of government role of Juan Linz’s 1990 article “The Perils of Presidentialism” 83 11/8/2016 the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government among the reasons why strongly discouraged: 1. unnecessary: if there is no superiority, then there is no need for overhaul the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government especially for federalism where state governments, constitutions, courts, and bureaucracy, etc. would have to be created is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government and among the reasons why strongly discouraged: 2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals Philippine time frame is 10 years! (institutional bundle) + (institutional configuration) 84 11/8/2016 the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government no democratic country has been crazy enough to make these overhauls at the same time! very tricky executive veto gates dual executive no democratic country has been crazy enough to make these overhauls at the same time! is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government and among the reasons why strongly discouraged: 2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals (institutional bundle) + (institutional configuration) Just when you think it could not get crazier, semi-presidentialism fast becoming a grocery list of institutions! is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government and among the reasons why strongly discouraged: 2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals (institutional bundle) + (institutional configuration) 85 11/8/2016 the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government institutional design literature has sobered from the enthusiasm of the early 1990s on the power to get institutional design right is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government and among the reasons why strongly discouraged: 2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals And this is just about one aspect of the institutional configuration: electoral system 86 11/8/2016 Philippines’ constitutional overhaul project in 2016: height of intellectual irony institutional design literature has clearly sobered from the enthusiasm of the 1990s on the power to get institutional design right hubris? and/or sheer ignorance of the literature? is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government and among the reasons why strongly discouraged: 2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government and among the reasons why strongly discouraged: 2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals 87 11/8/2016 is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government and among the reasons why strongly discouraged: 2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals 88 11/8/2016 89 11/8/2016 90 11/8/2016 91 11/8/2016 92 11/8/2016 93 11/8/2016 is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government and among the reasons why strongly discouraged: 2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals 94 11/8/2016 “hyperrationality” (Croissant and Merkel) hyperinstitutionalism is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government and Taagepera: among the reasons why strongly discouraged: 2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals 95 11/8/2016 hyperrationality (Merkel and Croissant) hyperinstitutionalism is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government and Taagepera: “excessive optimism” in institutional design easily leads to “excessive disillusionment” afterwards among the reasons why strongly discouraged: 2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals undermining rather than deepening democracy 96 11/8/2016 is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government and among the reasons why strongly discouraged: 3. Unsafe (highly risky): will be discussed in cautionary insight 3 the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government 1. More justifiable two reform principles from Larry Diamond is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government reforms do not need constitutional revisions only legislation or constitutional amendments 97 11/8/2016 98 11/8/2016 the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government 1. More justifiable two reform principles from Larry Diamond is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government reforms do not need constitutional revisions only legislation or constitutional amendments A. reform only in the face of manifest flaws B. reform should correct those flaws as specifically as possible the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government reforms do not need constitutional revisions only legislation or constitutional amendments If there are errors in the reforms, easier to return to the old setup or to push it further to the new setup through new legislation/amendment 2. Less risky: Messed-up reforms are more reformable 99 11/8/2016 the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government 2. Less risky: Messed-up reforms are more reformable If there are errors in the reforms, easier to return to the old setup or to push it further to the new setup through new legislation/amendment For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction (example: party system reforms against turncoatism) or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code) involve only legislation is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction (example: party system reforms against turncoatism) or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code) involve only legislation 100 11/8/2016 For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form Sartori: is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction (example: party system reforms against turncoatism) or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code) involve only legislation 101 11/8/2016 For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form Sartori: undisciplined political parties in a presidential democracy becoming disciplined in a parliamentary shift is “against all odds” For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form Mainwaring and Shugart: is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction (example: party system reforms against turncoatism) or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code) involve only legislation is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction (example: party system reforms against turncoatism) or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code) involve only legislation 102 11/8/2016 For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form Mainwaring and Shugart: undisciplined political parties in a parliamentary shift “could exacerbate problems of governability and instability” more than in a presidential democracy is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction (example: party system reforms against turncoatism) or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code) involve only legislation 103 11/8/2016 For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form Croissant and Merkel: For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction (example: party system reforms against turncoatism) or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code) involve only legislation is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government Croissant and Merkel: different time horizon the consolidation of the new party system takes much longer than changing the constitution “old, fragmented, clientelistic, and irresponsible parties” “would not be able to create strong and stable governments” 104 11/8/2016 the recommendation of top scholars for democratic countries with already functioning systems or forms of government 2. Less risky: Messed-up reforms are more reformable If there are errors in the reforms, easier to return to the old setup or to push it further to the new setup through new legislation/amendment because of constitutional entrenchment protecting its status, no federal country negotiated under democratic conditions has ever returned to unitary 2. Less risky: Messed-up reforms are more reformable If there are errors in the reforms, easier to return to the old setup or to push it further to the new setup through new legislation/amendment is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government very different from messed-up constitutional revisions involving system or form of government especially for shift to federalism is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government very different from messed-up constitutional revisions involving system or form of government especially for shift to federalism 105 11/8/2016 because of constitutional entrenchment protecting its status, no federal country negotiated under democratic conditions has ever returned to unitary 2. Less risky: Messed-up reforms are more reformable If there are errors in the reforms, easier to return to the old setup or to push it further to the new setup through new legislation/amendment is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government very different from messed-up constitutional revisions involving system or form of government especially for shift to federalism 106 11/8/2016 because of constitutional entrenchment protecting its status, no federal country negotiated under democratic conditions has ever returned to unitary “forcedtogether federalism” 2. Less risky: Messed-up reforms are more reformable If there are errors in the reforms, easier to return to the old setup or to push it further to the new setup through new legislation/amendment is to reform rather than overhaul their systems or forms of government very different from messed-up constitutional revisions involving system or form of government especially for shift to federalism IV.3. Third cautionary insight: Institutional design is political design 107 11/8/2016 According to Adam Przeworski: 108 11/8/2016 According to Adam Przeworski: There are no optimal democratic institutions B and even if there were, According to Adam Przeworski: There are no optimal democratic institutions the distributive impact of institutional design means opposing political forces will most likely not choose them B and even if there were, 109 11/8/2016 According to Adam Przeworski: There are no optimal democratic institutions the distributive impact of institutional design means opposing political forces will most likely not choose them A B and even if there were, B1 According to Adam Przeworski: There are no optimal democratic institutions the distributive impact of institutional design means opposing political forces will most likely not choose them political economy of institutional design/ constitutional engineering (most important actors are those who will write the constitution) A opposing political forces B and even if there were, B1 B2 B3 each institutional design outcome reflects the balance of power 110 11/8/2016 political economy of the federalism project in the Philippines under Duterte different from the federalism project before Duterte (1986-early 2016) only president to support was Arroyo (in her campaign platform in 2004) but haphazard support 111 11/8/2016 112 11/8/2016 political economy of the federalism project in the Philippines under Duterte very strong support of the president (prominent in his campaign platform) different from the federalism project before Duterte (1986-early 2016) only president to support was Arroyo (in her campaign platform in 2004) but haphazard support only played second fiddle to the parliamentary project 113 11/8/2016 political economy of the federalism project in the Philippines under Duterte very strong support of the president (prominent in his campaign platform) different from the federalism project before Duterte (1986-early 2016) U political economy of the federalism project in the Philippines under Duterte clear primacy over the parliamentary/semipresidency project only president to support was Arroyo (in her campaign platform in 2004) but haphazard support only played second fiddle to the parliamentary project F Constituent Assembly (P/SP) How do we reach here? Current preferred mode: - Philippine President - House Speaker - Senate President - House Committee on Constitutional Amendment 114 11/8/2016 U political economy of the federalism project in the Philippines under Duterte F Constituent Assembly (P/SP) How do we reach here? Current preferred mode: - Philippine President - House Speaker - Senate President - House Committee on Constitutional Amendment 115 11/8/2016 ARTICLE XVII AMENDMENTS OR REVISIONS Section 1. Any amendment to, or revision of, this Constitution may be proposed by: (1) The Congress, upon a vote of three-fourths of all its Members; or (2) A constitutional convention. “Constituent assembly” mode (Note: term never appears in the Constitution) ARTICLE XVII AMENDMENTS OR REVISIONS Section 1. Any amendment to, or revision of, this Constitution may be proposed by: (1) The Congress, upon a vote of three-fourths of all its Members; or (2) A constitutional convention. ? 116 11/8/2016 117 11/8/2016 October 10, 1986 118 11/8/2016 U political economy of the federalism project in the Philippines under Duterte Constituent Assembly U political economy of the federalism project in the Philippines under Duterte Constituent Assembly F How do we reach here? F How do we reach here? (P/SP) (P/SP) assuming that the Duterte administration could get the 3/4ths vote (18/24) in the Senate = big question mark and (223/297) in the Lower House = sure ball, as of now 119 11/8/2016 Philippine Congress (especially its HoR) U F How do we reach here? Constituent (P/SP) Just two comments Assembly 1. very low level of one of the most crucial indicators: institutionalization of political parties party switching current 17th Congress (the one that will become the ConAss): election result for HoR = PDP-Laban only had 3 out of 297 representatives LP had 116 members = PDP-Laban membership and allies swelled post-election party-switching to a supermajority of 260-plus and re-alignment = official minority: 20-plus but also the majority's minority = real minority; down to 7 members Philippine Congress (especially its HoR) U F How do we reach here? Constituent (P/SP) Just two comments Assembly 1. very low level of one of the most crucial indicators: institutionalization of political parties party switching higher level of payoffs to More incoherent More unstable move legislative agenda lawmaking as more political support of the executive policy side payments for the president, pork barrel by any are made with more especially when other name players representing (CDF, PDAF, DAP, particularistic interests his popularity goes down Duterte’s pork) 120 11/8/2016 Philippine Congress (especially its HoR) U Just two comments 2. High level of barrier to entry F How do we reach here? Constituent (P/SP) Assembly one of the most crucial indicators: political dynasty Not aware of any scholarly study yet on the 16th Congress (2013-2016) and the current 17th Congress (2016-2019) But there are at least two on the House of Representatives of the 15th Congress (2010-2013) by Mendoza et al., 2012 121 11/8/2016 Philippine Congress (especially its HoR) U F How do we reach here? Constituent (P/SP) Just two comments Assembly 2. High level of barrier to entry one of the most crucial indicators: political dynasty th HoR of the 15 Congress (2010-2013) 70 percent of members belong to a political dynasty “with kinship links to at least one legislator in the 12th, 13th, 14th, or 15th Congress, or at least one local government official elected in 2001, 2004, 2007, or 2010” (Dynasty3 Type) Philippine Congress (especially its HoR) U Just two comments 2. High level of barrier to entry F How do we reach here? Constituent (P/SP) Assembly one of the most crucial indicators: political dynasty Not aware of any scholarly study yet on the 16th Congress (2013-2016) and the current 17th Congress (2016-2019) But there are at least two on the House of Representatives of the 15th Congress (2010-2013) by Mendoza et al., 2012 by Rivera, 2011 122 11/8/2016 Philippine Congress (especially its HoR) U F How do we reach here? Constituent (P/SP) Just two comments Assembly 2. High level of barrier to entry one of the most crucial indicators: political dynasty th HoR of the 15 Congress (2010-2013) “34 out of 77 provinces or 44 percent had the same political family winning the governorship and at least one congressional district” 123 11/8/2016 Philippine Congress (especially its HoR) U Just two comments 2. High level of barrier to entry F How do we reach here? Constituent (P/SP) Assembly one of the most crucial indicators: political dynasty Self-perpetuating in politics by nature of clan replication 124 11/8/2016 125 11/8/2016 U Philippine Congress (especially its HoR) Just two comments 2. High level of barrier to entry Self-perpetuating in politics by nature of clan replication How do we reach here? Constituent (P/SP) Assembly one of the most crucial indicators: political dynasty Highly clientelistic (patronage-based) because familial/clan interests take precedence over any national interests U ConAss members who are winners of the old unitary/ presidential setup F Prevents party institutionalization as dynasties act as surrogates of political parties F How do we reach here? (P/SP) 126 11/8/2016 U F How do we reach here? (P/SP) ConAss members who are winners of the old compromises “with unitary/ groups that have presidential benefited from existing setup institutional arrangements” overwhelmingly for non-institutionalized and dynastic interests F1 (P/SP1) each institutional design outcome reflects the balance of power 127 11/8/2016 U ConAss members who are winners of the old unitary/ presidential setup overwhelmingly for non-institutionalized and dynastic interests overwhelmingly for non-institutionalized and dynastic interests (P/SP) F1 (P/SP1) distributive swing could be more dramatic because of the sheer multiplicity of features involved (think institutional bundle and configuration) F How do we reach here? U each institutional 2 design outcome (P/SP2) reflects the balance of power F F How do we reach here? (P/SP) F1 (P/SP1) each institutional 2 design outcome (P/SP2) reflects the balance of power F 128 11/8/2016 because of the sheer multiplicity of features involved (think institutional bundle and configuration) overwhelmingly for non-institutionalized and dynastic interests “hybrid outcomes that leave lines of accountability unclear and combine the worst of both worlds” F (P/SP) F1 (P/SP1) F3 (P/SP3) because of the sheer multiplicity of features involved (think institutional bundle and configuration) institutional Frankenstein outcomes U How do we reach here? U each institutional 2 design outcome (P/SP2) reflects the balance of power F F How do we reach here? (P/SP) F1 (P/SP1) F3 (P/SP3) each institutional 2 design outcome (P/SP2) reflects the balance of power F 129 11/8/2016 among the most important factors: (existing vested interests) U institutional endogeneity what explains institutional choices? and performance? ConAss members who are winners of the old unitary/ presidential setup (P/SP1) F3 among the most important factors: (existing vested interests) U ConAss members who are winners of the old unitary/ presidential setup premium on democratic regime transitions (P/SP) F1 (P/SP3) assumption of some kind of displacement of the vested interests of the old order F How do we reach here? each institutional 2 design outcome (P/SP2) reflects the balance of power F F How do we reach here? (P/SP) F1 (P/SP1) F3 (P/SP3) each institutional 2 design outcome (P/SP2) reflects the balance of power F 130 11/8/2016 among the most important factors: (existing vested interests) U Worst-case scenario of constitutionmaking for Przeworski ConAss members who are winners of the old unitary/ presidential setup F How do we reach here? (P/SP) F1 (P/SP1) F3 (P/SP3) each institutional 2 design outcome (P/SP2) reflects the balance of power F 131 11/8/2016 among the most important factors: (existing vested interests) Worst-case scenario of ConAss constitutionmembers making for who are Przeworski winners of the old “When the unitary/ relation of forces is known presidential setup and uneven, U the institutions are custom-made for a particular person, party or alliance” F3 (P/SP3) among the most important factors: (existing vested interests) Elster: ConAss members who are winners of the old unitary/ presidential setup U F3 (P/SP3) F How do we reach here? (P/SP) F1 (P/SP1) each institutional 2 design outcome (P/SP2) reflects the balance of power F F How do we reach here? (P/SP) F1 (P/SP1) each institutional 2 design outcome (P/SP2) reflects the balance of power F 132 11/8/2016 among the most important factors: (existing vested interests) Elster: Constitutions ConAss “ought to members be written by who are specially winners of convened the old assemblies” unitary/ “not by presidential bodies setup that also serve as 3 ordinary legislatures” (P/SP3) U F F How do we reach here? (P/SP) F1 (P/SP1) each institutional 2 design outcome (P/SP2) reflects the balance of power F 133 11/8/2016 among the most important factors: (existing vested interests) Elster: Constitutions ConAss “ought to members be written by who are specially winners of convened the old assemblies” unitary/ “not by presidential bodies setup that also serve as “to reduce the scope for ordinary institutional interest” legislatures” U among the most important factors: (existing vested interests) U political economy of the federalism project in the Philippines under Duterte ConAss members who are winners of the old unitary/ presidential setup analogy: same inept driver with brand new vehicle from Manila to Sagada F How do we reach here? (P/SP) F1 (P/SP1) each institutional 2 design outcome (P/SP2) reflects the balance of power F F How do we reach here? (P/SP) F1 (P/SP1) F3 (P/SP3) each institutional 2 design outcome (P/SP2) reflects the balance of power F 134 11/8/2016 IV.4. Other cautionary insights 4. Institutional design as “mis-design” (strategic miscalculations of actors) a.k.a. “law of unintended consequences” 135 11/8/2016 5. Institutional design as “design-less” (upstream and downstream quality of new constitutional choices) Thank you very much 136 11/8/2016 The Federalism Project in the Philippines: Cautionary Insights from the Institutional Design Literature Gene Lacza Pilapil 137
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