Ten More Years of Republican Rule?
Author(s): Sarah A. Binder
Source: Perspectives on Politics, Vol. 3, No. 3 (Sep., 2005), pp. 541-543
Published by: American Political Science Association
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Sarah A. Binder
TenMoreYearsofRepublican
Rule?
Ifhistory
is anyjudge,Republicans
shouldlosecontrolof
Congressor theWhiteHouse duringone ofthefiveelectionsto come betweennow and 2015. SinceDemocrats
and Republicansbecamenationalcompetitors
in 1855,
unifiedpartycontrolhas lastedon averagejust5.9 years.
UnifiedRepublican
controlhasendureda bitlonger,
averEven
at
its
the
onset
of
the
6.3
(with
years.
aging
longest
control
of
has
1896 realignment),
Republican
government
lastedjust fourteen
years.With the currentRepublican
fromtheelectionsof2000, Republican
regimeemerging
controlof Congressand theWhiteHouse shouldhave
runitscoursebytheelectionsof2014.
The received
wisdom,ofcourse,is moreoftenlikelyto
electoral
andforgood
invulnerability,
predictRepublicans'
of
from
reasons.
transformation
theSouth
solid"blue"
First,
to "red"is said to havecreateda substantial
base forthe
and presidential
RepublicanPartyin bothcongressional
elections.Second,populationmovement
to thesouthand
west,as well as GOP captureof numerousstatelegislaturesin theSouth,has made redistricting
the
following
decennialcensus(and in Texasin theintervening
years)
an effective
toolforsecuring
seatsintheHouse.
Republican
districts
Third,the declineof ticket-splitting
(in which
voterschoosethepresidential
candidateofone partyand
the congressional
candidateof the other)has narrowed
Democraticopportunities
forregainingcontrolof the
House. Onlyeighteen
wonbyJohn
districts
congressional
in
in
2004
are
the
House by RepubliKerry
represented
held by Democans,comparedto the41 Bush districts
The declineofcompetitive
racesnationwide,
coupled
crats.1
withthe Republicans'structural
advantagein elections,
makesithardforDemocratsto regaincontrolof
certainly
theHouse.2Nor is theSenatewithineasyreachofDemacrossthe
ocrats,withthe lossesthe partyexperienced
Southand elsewhere
in the2004 elections.
That is whatthereceivedwisdommightpredictabout
thenexttenyears.I predictthatRepublicangovernment
isunlikely
toendureuninterrupted
overthedecade.Despite
thedeclineofcompetitive
House races,thepoliticsofslim
electoral
andlegislative
willbe theRepublicans'
majorities
undoing.Considerthis alternative
perspectiveon the
nation'selectoralfuture.
but
CongressionalRepublicanshave won consistent,
sincegainingcontroloftheHouse in the
small,majorities
1994 midterm
elections.Republicanmajorities
haveheld
on averagejust over50 percentof thechamberseats.In
contrast,Democraticmajoritiesin the previousdecade
SarahA. Binderisprofessor
science
at George
ofpolitical
and
Washington
University
([email protected]) a senior
at
The
Institution.
fellow
Brookings
heldnearly60 percentoftheHouse. Norwereextra-large
Democraticmajorities
an anomalyofthe1980s.Between
in theHouseaver1954 and 1994,Democraticmajorities
60
of
chamber
seats.
Giventhemagic
agedexactly percent
numberof 218 votesto prevailon a House vote,slim
Republicanmajorities
just227 seats)haveoften
(averaging
lefttheGOP scrambling
to builda majority.
In contrast,
overtheir40 yearsof House control,Democratsheldon
average261 seats,givingDemocratsa typicalsurplusof
43 votes.Althoughthe2004 electionsusheredin thelargest GOP House majoritysince 1994, at 232 seats,the
smallest
Democraticmajorityoverthe past half-century
(afterthe 1954 elections)was also 232 seats.Nor have
recentSenateRepublicanmajorities
had manyvotesto
that
chamber's
rules
spare,especially
given
supermajority
forendingdebate.Since 1994, SenateGOP majorities
have averagedjust 53 seats,well shortof the 60 votes
neededto maintaina filibuster-proof
majority.3
Down theAvenue,theRepublicans'presidential
marhave
also
been
In
narrow.
2004
Bush
gins
exceedingly
won 51.4 percentof the two-party
vote,up from49.7
percentin 2000. Only threestatesswitchedsidesin the
twoelections:twostateswithnarrowDemocraticwinsin
2000 wentRepublicanin 2004, and one statenarrowly
won byRepublicans
in 2000 votedDemocraticin 2004.4
Giventhedistribution
of thevoteacrossthestates,anaof
recent
elections
conclude
thatneither
lysts
partyhasan
electoralbasesufficient
in
to guarantee
victory 2008, and
short-term
forcescouldeasilyswingtheelectionto either
whenthepresident's
Moreover,
party.
partyhascontrolled
theWhiteHouse fortwoor moreterms,theincumbent
moreoftenlosesthanwinsinthefollowing
electionparty
2008
a
"time
for
a
Since
World
making
change"election.5
WarII, whenthepresident's
has
the
party controlled White
House fortwo or moreterms,theincumbent
partyhas
wonjustone-third
oftheensuingelections.
for
Whywill such smallmarginsbe so consequential
Republicans?Call it the curseof overreaching:
today's
mostlymoderatepublicis unlikelyto rewarda majority
partythatpursuesan ideologically
polarizing
agenda.Large
cansuffer
theconsequences
ofa disaffected
majorities
pubin an eraofpolarizedpartiescanlic,butslimmajorities
not.As I suggestbelow,slimcongressional
face
majorities
distinct
hurdlesto achieving
theirpolicygoals,
procedural
hurdles
thatwillaffect
theirparty's
electoral
future
adversely.
To detecttheimpactof slimmajorities,
considerfirst
the electoralcontextin whichthe Republicanmajority
mustmaneuver.
Today'slegislative
partiesare extremely
leftin thepolitipolarized,withfewmoderatelegislators
cal center.
hasbeenincreasing
over
Althoughpolarization
thepasttwo decades,mostAmericansremainsolidlyin
theideologicalmiddle."YetdespitetheRepublicans'
narrowmajorities
andAmericans'
centrist
tendencies,
Republican majoritieshave governedas if with a sweeping
conservative
mandate.Bush'spolicyproposals
in2001 were
September2005 1Vol.3/No.3 541
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Now
Symposium I TenYearsfrom
includambitiousand,as manyhavenoted,"off-center,"
education
faith-based
tax
vouchers,
initiatives,
cuts,
ing
to
and privatization
ofsocialsecurity-anagendacrafted
interconservative
to
the
base.7Bush's
Republicans'
appeal
view
ofthe2004 electionsummedup hisparty's
pretation
best:"I earnedcapitalin thecampaign,politicalcapital,
and now I intendto spendit."8If mandateelectionsare
characmarkedbytheirsweepingscopeand unexpected
to buy
ter,thenBush'sstockofpoliticalcapitalis unlikely
himand hispartymuchsuccessin hissecondterm.9
in today'selecCould overreaching
by slimmajorities
toralenvironment
costRepublicanscontroloftheHouse
or Senate?My hunchis yes,giventhepolicyand proceduralconsequencesof narrowmajorities.
Slimmajorities
makemajority
coalitionstoughto buildand to sustain.A
itscoalition.10
handfulofdefections
can costthemajority
know
we
from
two
of
centuries
House
Moreover,
politics
that small,cohesivemajoritiesare especiallyprone to
therulesofthegametotheiradvantage;
threatmanipulate
enedbyminority
altertherulesto
obstruction,
majorities
securetheirpolicygoals.11Not surprisingly,
giventhedifofbuildingwinningcoalitions,
ficulty
RepublicanHouse
since2001 havereliedmuchmoreheavilythan
majorities
on restrictive
rules:nearlyhalfofall
did theirpredecessors
in
rules
the
108th
special
Congress(2003-4) allowedthe
to
offer
amendment
on
minority
justone substitute
party
at all. Such limitatheflooror allowedno amendments
have been deemednecessaryby
tionson the minority
SpeakerDennyHastert,giventheGOP's narrowmargin
of controland the lack of DemocraticvotesforGOP
initiatives.12
In a legislative
relimembers,
bodywithso fewcentrist
alteranceon restrictive
rulesthatlimitvoteson moderate
nativesis boundto producemoreideologically
polarized
on
outcomes-as evidencedby GOP legislative
victories
oftaxcutsheaveconomicpolicy(forexample,enactment
and on socialpolilyskewedto upperincometaxpayers)
in
end-of-life
the
decisions
intervention
(for
icy
example,
votes betweenan
of TerrySchiavo). In structuring
voteforthestatusquo anda votefora polarunacceptable
ized alternative,
membersof the majorityparty
centrist
are oftenunable to vote foroutcomesthatbest reflect
Such votesat timescost
theirconstituents'
preferences.
centriststheirseats, as moderateDemocrat Marjorie
learnedthehardwayin 1993 after
Margolies-Mezvinsky
Bill Clinton'sbudget.
votingforPresident
SenateRepublicanshave been equallyaggressive-to
therulesof
theextentchamberrulesallow-in exploiting
thegameto securemorepolarizedoutcomes.The use of
billshasprotected
Republicaninimultiplereconciliation
and Republican
tiatives
frombothDemocraticfilibusters
moderateswho mightotherwisevote againstcloture.13
modAnd stungbyDemocraticfilibusters
and wavering
erates,Republicanleadershavesoughtto "go nuclear"onjudicial
despitea disapproving
public-to banfilibusters
542
Theseprocedural
tacticsaremadenecesnominations.14
the
narrow
held
chamsarygiven
margin bya conservative
bermajority
noncentrist
outcomes.
seeking
Can overreaching
on policyand procedure
costRepublicanscontrolofCongress?
To theextentthatRepublicans
succeedin securing
theirparty's
policygoals,resulting
legislationis morelikelyto be off-center,
cateringto the
base. Conversely,
to the degreethatRepublimajority's
cans falterin pursuingtheiragenda,theyarelikelyto be
blamedforinaction.Neitheroutcomeis likelyto be rewardedoverthe nextdecadeby a persistently
moderate
In
of
both
the
and
fact,
public.
publicapproval
president
had
In
March
2005.
Congress slippedmarkedly
byspring
2001, 55 percentofthepublicapprovedofthewayCongresswas doingitsjob; fouryearslater,just 37 percent
approved-itslowestratingin almosta decadeand a far
cryfromthe 84 percentwho gaveCongresshighmarks
afterthe attacksof September11.15 PresidentBush's
one
approvalratingat thesametime-the endofthefirst
hundreddays of his second term-was under50 percent.16Summaryevaluationsof the presidenthave,of
thevotein nearlyeveryelection
course,strongly
predicted
in postwarAmerica.17
Moderatepublicsare unlikelyto
sustainunified-andoftenoverreaching-Republican
rule
overthedecadeto come.
Notes
1 CharlieCook, "435 Waysto ParsethePresidential
ElectionResults,"NationalJournal.com,
March29,
available
at
2005,
http://www.cookpolitical.com/
column/2004/032905.php.
2 Jacobson2004.
3 I countSenatorRichardShelbyas a Republican
in the104thCongress,and SenatorJames
starting
as an Independent
in the 107th
Jeffords
starting
Congress.
4 Abramson,
Aldrich,and Rohde2005.
5 Abramowitz
2005.
6 See Binder1996 on thedisappearing
politicalcenter,see McCarty,Poole,and Rosenthal1997 on
see Fiorina,Abrams,and Pope
partisanpolarization;
2004 on themoderatepublic.
7 Hackerand Pierson2005.
8 WhiteHouse 2004.
9 See remarks
byJamesStimsonas citedin Brookings
Institution
2004.
10 Some of themostimportant
votessince2001 have
beenwon withjust218 votes,includingmajorvotes
on thefederalbudgetin 2005 and on expansionof
Medicarein 2003.
11 Dion 1997; Binder1997.
12 Wolfensberger
2005.
13 Republicanswerealso willingto firetheparliamentarianforadvicedeemedadverseto theparty's
on Politics
Perspectives
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All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
interests.
See Helen Dewar,"KeySenateOfficial
Don Herzog
LosesJobin DisputewithGOP," Washington
Post,
AnotherTocqueville
May 8, Al.
Timefora trueconfession:
I'm skeptical
in
ofpredictions
14 See RichardMorinand Dan Balz,"Filibuster
Rule
socialand politicallife.Talkofcausalgeneralizations
and
Post,April26, 2005,
ChangeOpposed," Washington
lawsstrikes
me as sciencefictionand
Hempel's
covering
AO1.
in drag;talkof the unfolding
of the immanent
fantasy
15 See AndreaStone,"Congress'ApprovalRatingon
I usuallythink
makesme dyspeptic.
of modernity
logic
March14, 2005, http://
theSlide," USA Today,
arecontext,
notcause,and
thatstructural
considerations
www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-03-14thatweirdcombinationsof straycontingencies
explain
congress-poll_x.htm.
whathappens.Worse,now I'm calledon to predicthow
RuleChange
16 See Morinand Balz,"Filibuster
willbe discussing
tenyears
democracy
politicaltheorists
Opposed."
catsandBrownian
motioncome
hence.Imagesofherding
17 Abramson,
Aldrich,and Rohde2005, 50.
ball
to mind.Nonetheless,
dutycalls.I dustoffmycrystal
and discoverit has threechannels.
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September2005 1Vol.3/No.3 543
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