Overview of US China ATP Trade
By Alex Hammer, Robert Koopman, and Andrew Martinez
Office of Economics
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the authors and
not those of the USITC or any of its Commissioners.
U.S.- China ATP Trade
•
Challenges classifying ATP trade –
– How to identify AT products out of thousands of tariff lines?
– We use U.S. Census definition, which is a dynamic approach to
classification. Applied these definitions to both US and China data. See
Ferrantino, Koopman, Wang, Yinug, Chen, Qu, and Wang 2008 for
more details. Can be found at
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2008/spring_china_btc/s
pring_china_btc.pdf
– It is not associated with any particular policy objectives.
– There are no competing international standards.
•
•
Even more challenging to look at Environmental and Clean Energy
products – no agreed upon classification schemes. We did some
preliminary work, but not reported here.
We used a simple approach
– look where US and Chinese bilateral export patterns diverged from their
exports to the rest of the world.
We use 10 broad categories
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Biotech
Opto-electronics
Electronics
Advanced Materials
Weapons
Life Sciences
Information and Communication
Flexible Manufacturing
Aerospace
Nuclear Technology.
Definitions
General Advanced Technology Product Definitions
Code
Definition
(01) Biotechnology
Focuses on medical and industrial applications of advanced scientific discoveries in genetics to the creation of new drugs, hormones and other
therapeutic items for both agricultural and human use.
(02) Life Science
Concentrates on the application of scientific advances (other than biological) to medical science. Recent advances, such as nuclear resonance
imaging, echocardiography, and novel chemistry, coupled with new production techniques for the manufacture of drugs have led to many new
products for the control or eradication of disease.
(03) Opto-Electronics
Encompasses electronic products and components that involve the emitting and/or detection of light. Examples of products included are optical
scanners, optical disc players, solar cells, photo-sensitive semiconductors and laser printers.
(04) Information &
Communications
Focuses on products that are able to process increased volumes of information in shorter periods of time. Includes central processing units, all
computers and some peripheral units such as disk drive units and control units, along with modems, facsimile machines and telephonic switching
apparatus. Examples of other products included are radar apparatus and communication satellites.
(05) Electronics
Concentrates on recent design advances in electronic components (with the exception of opto-electronic components) that result in improved
performance and capacity and in many cases reduced size. Products included are integrated circuits, multi-layer printed circuit boards and surfacemounted components such as capacitors and resistors.
(06) Flexible
Manufacturing
Encompasses advances in robotics, numerically-controlled machine tools, and similar products involving industrial automation that allow for greater
flexibility to the manufacturing process and reduce the amount of human intervention. Includes robots, numerically controlled machine tools and
semiconductor production and assembly machines.
(07) Advanced Materials
Encompasses recent advances in the development of materials that allow for further development and application of other advanced technologies.
Examples are semiconductor materials, optical fiber cable and video discs.
(08) Aerospace
Encompasses most new military and civil helicopters, airplanes and spacecraft (with the exception of communications satellites that are included
under Information & Communications Technology). Other products included are turbojet aircraft engines, flight simulators and automatic pilots.
(10) Nuclear Technology
Encompasses nuclear power production apparatus. Includes nuclear reactors and parts, isotopic separation equipment and fuel cartridges. Excludes
nuclear medical apparatus, which is included under Life Science Technology.
What we found…
– U.S. exports to China
• underperform compared to ROW in Biotech, Life sciences, OptoElectronics, Info and Communication technology, Aero Space,
Weapons and Nuclear Technology
• Do better than ROW in Electronics (recently), Flexible
Manufacturing, and Advanced Materials (recently).
– China’s exports to the U.S.
• Underperform compared to ROW in Electronics.
• fairly comparable to its ROW exports in Biotech, Life sciences,
Flexible Manufacturing, Advanced Materials, Aerospace, Weapons,
and Nuclear Technology.
• Do better than ROW in Opto-electronics and Info and
Communication technology (recently)
Figure 1: U.S. ATP IMPORTS
(In $US Billions)
400
100%
Share of U.S. ATP Imports from China
U.S. ATP Import from World
90%
350
U.S. ATP Imports from China
80%
300
70%
$U.S. Bil
250
60%
200
50%
40%
150
23%
100
25%
27%
28%
19%
30%
20%
14%
10%
50
6%
10%
7%
0
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: World Trade Atlas
Figure 2: U.S. ATP IMPORTS FROM CHINA
(In $US Billions)
400
100%
ATP Share of U.S. Imports from China
90%
U.S. Imports from China: ATP
350
U.S. Imports from China
80%
300
70%
$U.S. Bil
250
60%
200
50%
40%
150
23%
100
24%
25%
27%
27%
19%
20%
16%
12%
30%
13%
50
10%
0
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: World Trade
Figure 3: U.S. ATP IMPORTS FROM CHINA
(As share, using U.S. Data)
140%
120%
Biotechnology
Life Sciences
Opto-Electronics
Information & Communication
Electronics
Flexible Manufacturing
Aerospace
Weapons
Advanced Materials
Source:World Trade Atlas
Nuclear Technology
100%
Source: World Trade Atlas
Source: World Trade Atlas
Sourc e: Worl d T rade Atl as
Source: World Trade Atlas
Sourc e: W or l d T rade Atl as
Sourc e: Worl d Trade Atl as
Sourc e: Worl d Trade Atl as
Source: W orl d Trade Atl as
Sourc e: Worl d Trade Atl as
80%
Info &
Communication
Breakdown:
Other
Cameras
Monitors
TV Receivers
Computer Parts
60%
Telephones
40%
Computers
20%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: World Trade Atlas
Figure 4: Composition of China's ATP Exports to the U.S. and ROW
(2008)
90%
80%
China's Exports to U.S.
China's Exports to ROW
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Biotechnology
Life
Sciences
Opto- Info & Comm- Electronics
Flexible
Advanced
Electronics nications
Manufacturing Materials
Aerospace
Weapons
Nuclear
Technology
Source: World Trade Atlas
Distinctive Aspects of China’s ATP Exports to the U.S.
Share of China's ATP Exports to U.S. - Share of China ATP Exports to ROW, 2001-2008
20%
2001
2004
2008
15%
Specialization to U.S.
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Convergence to
Zero Differentiation
Convergence to
Zero Differentiation
-10%
Underperfoming
relative to ROW
-15%
-20%
Biotechnology
Life Sciences
OptoElectronics
Information &
Communication
Electronics
Flexible
Manufacturing
Advanced
Materials
Aerospace
Weapons
Nuclear
Technology
Figure 1: U.S. ATP EXPORTS TO CHINA
(In $U.S. Billions)
300
25%
ATP Share of U.S. Exports to China (RHS)
U.S. ATP Exports to World
250
U.S. ATP Exports to China
20%
$U.S. Bil
200
15%
150
10%
100
6.4%
4.6%
4.6%
4.8%
5.0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
6.9%
6.9%
5%
3.6%
50
2.4%
0
0%
2000
2001
2006
2007
2008
Source: World Trade Atlas
Figure 2: COMPOSITION OF U.S. ATP EXPORTS TO CHINA
(In percent)
140%
Biotechnology
Opto-Electronics
Electronics
Advanced Materials
Weapons
120%
Life Sciences
Information & Communication
Flexible Manufacturing
Aerospace
Nuclear Technology
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: World Trade Atlas
Figure 3: Composition of U.S. ATP Exports to China and ROW by Sector, 2008
60%
U.S. Exports to China
50%
U.S. Exports to ROW
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Biotechnology
Life
Sciences
OptoInfo & Comm- Electronics
Flexible
Advanced
Electronics nications
Manufacturing Materials
Aerospace
Weapons
Nuclear
Technology
Source: World Trade Atlas
Distinctive Aspects of U.S. ATP Exports to China (2001-08)
Share of U.S. ATP Exports to China- Share of U.S. ATP to ROW, 2001-2008
(In $US Bil)
50%
40%
2001
2004
2008
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
"Underserved" Sectors:
Less demand, barriers to trade,
or simply untapped potential?
-40%
-50%
Biotechnology
Life Sciences
OptoElectronics
Information &
Communication
Electronics
Flexible
Manufacturing
Advanced
Materials
Aerospace
Weapons
Nuclear
Technology
Opportunities in ATP Biotechnology Exports (2008)
Share of US ATP Exports to China - Share of US ATP Exports to ROW, BIOTECH 2008
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
-3.5%
OTHER BLOOD
VACCINES FOR
FRACTIONS NESOI HUMAN MEDICINE
POLYPEPTIDE,
PROTEIN &
GLYCOPROTEIN
HORMONES
OTR TOXINS
MICROORGANISM
CULTURES & SIM
PROD NESOI
SUGARS, CHEM
PURE (EXC
SUCROSE,
LACTOSE,
ETC)NESOI
FETAL BOVINE
SERUM (FBS)
ESTROGENS AND
PROGESTINS
ANTIALLERGENIC
PREPERATIONS
SOMATOTROPIN,
ITS DERIVS &
STRUCT
ANALOGUES
D-ARABINOSE
SUGAR, CHEM
PURE EXC
(SUCROSE ETC.)
VACCINES FOR
VETRINARY
MEDICINE
Filtering the Data
Opportunities in ATP Biotechnology Exports (2008)
Share of US ATP Exports to China - Share of US ATP Exports to ROW, BIOTECH 2008
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
The U.S. Exports 0.03% of its
human vaccines to China
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
The U.S. Exports 1% of its “OBF” (used for
vaccines to create immunities) to China
-3.5%
OTHER BLOOD
VACCINES FOR
FRACTIONS NESOI HUMAN MEDICINE
POLYPEPTIDE,
PROTEIN &
GLYCOPROTEIN
HORMONES
OTR TOXINS
MICROORGANISM
CULTURES & SIM
PROD NESOI
SUGARS, CHEM
PURE (EXC
SUCROSE,
LACTOSE,
ETC)NESOI
FETAL BOVINE
SERUM (FBS)
ESTROGENS AND
PROGESTINS
ANTIALLERGENIC
PREPERATIONS
SOMATOTROPIN,
ITS DERIVS &
STRUCT
ANALOGUES
D-ARABINOSE
SUGAR, CHEM
PURE EXC
(SUCROSE ETC.)
VACCINES FOR
VETRINARY
MEDICINE
U.S. Exports of "Under-Performing"
Biologic Exports to China
U.S. EXPORTS OF OTHER BLOOD FACTIONS
7
5%
Share of U.S. Exports of Other Blood Factions going to China (RHS)
U.S. Exports of Other Blood Factions to World
6
U.S. Exports of Other Blood Factions to China
4%
Billions $U.S.
5
3%
4
3
2%
2
1%
1
0
0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Opportunities in ATP Biotechnology Exports (2008)
CHINA IMPORTS OF OTHER BLOOD FACTIONS
300
China's Imports of Other Blood Factions from ROW
China's Imports of Other Blood Factions from Ireland
China's Imports of Other Blood Factions from Austria
250
China's Imports of Other Blood Factions from the U.S.
China's Imports of Other Blood Factions from Germany
Mil $U.S.
200
150
100
50
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008