Dec 13, 2016
by Steve Freed, VP of Grain Research
Soybeans and soymeal closed lower. Corn and wheat closed mixed to higher. Talk of
increase interest by hedge funds to buy commodities do to threat of global economic
growth and inflation may have helped prices. Strong US domestic demand and nearby
export demand may be offsetting talk of better Argentina weather and record World corn,
soybean and wheat end stocks.
Soybean closed lower in a choppy trade. World that China environmental regulators may
be shutting down some soybean crushers helped rally China Soybean meal futures to 4
month highs. SH has been in an uptrend since the August lows. Much of the buying is linked
in part to est of record US soybean demand. There has also been some buying linked in part
to concern about 2017 South America weather. Today though next weeks Argentina
forecast calls for normal rains. Most still est Brazil 2017 soybean crop near 102.0 mmt.
Brazil farmer increased new crop soybean sales in November to near 34 pct sold vs 40 ave.
Argentina soybean crop is est near 56.0 mmt. Crop is 58 pct planted vs 64 ave. Dry weather
has slowed plantings.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider
whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is
provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author
of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The
information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any
decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way
deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.
Corn futures closed higher. Talk that Index funds may be interested in buying commodities
As an inflation hedge may be triggering new buying. There is also talk that higher US stock
market and energy prices could also trigger new buying in corn. World fundamentals are
mostly bearish with world end stocks record high. Still talk that US farmers may reduce
2017 corn acres and a trend or lower yield could reduce US 2017/18 end stocks could offer
support. 50 pct retracement of the entire drop in corn prices this summer into the fall lows
is near 3.74 CH. This could be an objective on further fund short covering. There has also
been some buying linked in part to concern about 2017 South America weather. Today
though next weeks Argentina forecast calls for normal rains. Most still est Brazil 2017 corn
crop near 86.0 mmt. Brazil farmer has sold little corn ahead due to lower prices. Argentina
corn crop is est near 35.0 mmt. Crop is 48 pct planted vs 50 ave. Dry weather has slowed
plantings in the south.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider
whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is
provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author
of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The
information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any
decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way
deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.
Wheat closed mixed. Futures firmed in part on talk that colder than normal Temps in both
the US and Russia could stress winter sown crop. There is also some Index buying on talk
US farmers may reduce 2017 US wheat acres and That a tend or lower yield could lower
supplies and offer support to prices. Finally there was talk that new money might be
coming into commodities On the long side as a hedge against inflation. There remains too
much wheat In the World and fact USDs recently increased crops in Australia and Canada
continues to offer strong overhead resistance. WH tested 4.20. 50 day moving ave is near
4.22. Could be some buy stops above that level.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider
whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is
provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author
of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The
information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any
decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way
deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.