Giorgio Brunello - CESifo Group Munich

Area Conference on Employment and Social
Protection
CESifo Conference Centre, Munich
29 – 30 June 2001
Beyond National Institutions: Labor Taxes and
Regional Unemployment in Italy
by
Giorgio Brunello
Claudio Lupi
Patrizia Ordine
Maria Laura Parisi
Eh|rqg Qdwlrqdo Lqvwlwxwlrqv= Oderu Wd{hv
dqg Uhjlrqdo Xqhpsor|phqw lq Lwdo|4
Jlrujlr Euxqhoor5
Fodxglr Oxsl6
Sdwul}ld Ruglqh7
Pduld Odxud Sdulvl8
Mdqxdu| 63/ 5334
4 Zh
duh judwhixo wr Idelr Vfkldqwduhool iru d xvhixo frqyhuvdwlrq rq wkh wrslf
ri wklv sdshu/ wr Vloyld Dugdjqd iru frpphqwv dqg wr Shwhu Shgurql iru dgylfh1
Sduw ri wkh uhvhdufk grqh iru wklv sdshu zdv fduulhg rxw zkloh wkh uvw dxwkru zdv
ylvlwlqj Ervwrq Xqlyhuvlw|1 Wkh xvxdo glvfodlphu dssolhv1
5 Xqlyhuvlw| ri Sdgxd/ FHVlir/ IHHP dqg L]D
6 LVDH/ Urpd1 f1oxslClvdh1lw
7 Xqlyhuvlw| ri Fdodeuld/ Frvhq}d1 s1ruglqhCxqlfdo1lw
8 Xqlyhuvlw| ri Sdgxd
Devwudfw
E| irfxvlqj rq wkh Lwdoldq h{shulhqfh/ zh dvn zkhwkhu wkh uhodwlrqvkls eh0
wzhhq oderu wd{hv dqg xqhpsor|phqw ydulhv dfurvv uhjlrqv1 Lq vslwh ri vlp0
lodu qdwlrqdo oderu pdunhw lqvwlwxwlrqv/ zh vkrz wkdw wklv uhodwlrqvkls lv
vljqlfdqwo| vwurqjhu lq wkh kljko| lqgxvwuldol}hg Qruwk wkdq lq wkh xqghu0
ghyhorshg Vrxwk/ zkhuh xqhpsor|phqw lv pxfk kljkhu1 Dq lpsruwdqw vrxufh
ri yduldwlrq lq wkh uhjlrqdo uhvsrqvlyhqhvv ri xqhpsor|phqw ruljlqdwhv iurp
wkh idfw wkdw uhjlrqdo jurvv zdjhv lq wkh Qruwk lqfuhdvh pruh wkdq lq wkh
Vrxwk lq uhvsrqvh wr d klnh lq oderu wd{hv1 Uhjlrqdo zdjh vhwwlqj dhfwv
uhjlrqdo hpsor|phqw +dqg xqhpsor|phqw, erwk gluhfwo| dqg lqgluhfwo|/ yld
lwv lpsdfw rq uhjlrqdo surwv dqg wkh fdslwdo vwrfn1
MHO= M84/ K53
Nh|zrugv= uhjlrqdo xqhpsor|phqw/ oderu wd{hv
4
Lqwurgxfwlrq
D srsxodu h{sodqdwlrq ri wkh revhuyhg glhuhqfhv lq wkh ehkdylru ri wkh udwh
ri xqhpsor|phqw dfurvv Hxurshdq frxqwulhv irfxvhv rq wkh lqwhudfwlrq ri
qhjdwlyh vkrfnv zlwk qdwlrqdo lqvwlwxwlrqv +Eodqfkdug dqg Zroihuv +5333,,1
Wkhvh lqvwlwxwlrqv lqfoxgh hpsor|phqw surwhfwlrq phdvxuhv/ wkh xqhpsor|0
phqw ehqhwv v|vwhp dqg wkh ghjuhh ri fhqwudol}dwlrq ri wkh zdjh edujdlq1 Lq
d uhfhqw h{dpsoh ri wklv dssurdfk/ Gdyhul dqg Wdehoolql +5333, vkrz wkdw wkh
lpsdfw ri oderu wd{hv rq wkh udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw ghshqgv rq wkh qdwlrqdo
lqvwlwxwlrqv uhjxodwlqj zdjh edujdlqlqj1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh| dujxh wkdw wkh
lpsdfw ri kljkhu wd{hv lv orzhu lq frxqwulhv zkhuh edujdlqlqj lv hlwkhu gh0
fhqwudol}hg +Dqjor0Vd{rq frxqwulhv, ru yhu| fhqwudol}hg +Vfdqglqdyldq frxq0
wulhv,1 Prvw frqwlqhqwdo Hxurshdq frxqwulhv kdyh zdjh vhwwlqj lqvwlwxwlrqv
wkdw olh ehwzhhq wkhvh wzr h{wuhphv= lq wkhvh frxqwulhv wkh qhjdwlyh lpsdfw
ri dq lqfuhdvh ri oderu wd{hv rq xqhpsor|phqw lv kljkhvw1
Lq wklv olwhudwxuh/ wkh hpslulfdo hylghqfh lv edvhg rq frpsdulvrqv ri dj0
juhjdwh gdwd dfurvv frxqwulhv1 Pruhryhu/ oderu pdunhw lqvwlwxwlrqv kdyh d
qdwlrqdo glphqvlrq1 D nh| ihdwxuh ri xqhpsor|phqw lq vrph frqwlqhqwdo Hx0
urshdq frxqwulhv lq wkh 4<;3v dqg 4<<3v +prvw qrwdeo| Lwdo| dqg Vsdlq/ exw
dovr Jhupdq|,/ krzhyhu/ kdv ehhq wkh kljk glvshuvlrq ri uhjlrqdo xqhpsor|0
phqw udwhv +vhh Ehqwrolod dqg Mlphqr +4<<;, iru Vsdlq dqg Euxqhoor/ Oxsl
dqg Ruglqh +5334, iru Lwdo|,1 Wr h{sodlq wklv glvshuvlrq wkh lqvwlwxwlrqv e|
vkrfnv dssurdfk qhhgv hlwkhu wr hpskdvl}h uhjlrqdo vkrfnv zlwklq wkh vdph
frxqwu|/ ru wr uho| rq wkh suhvhqfh ri dv|pphwulf uhjlrqdo uhvsrqvhv wr djjuh0
jdwh vkrfnv lqwhudfwlqj zlwk qdwlrqdo lqvwlwxwlrqv/ ru qdoo| wr dfnqrzohgjh
wkh lpsruwdqfh ri uhjlrqdo lqvwlwxwlrqv1
E| uhjlrqdo lqvwlwxwlrqv zh phdq oderu pdunhw lqvwlwxwlrqv wkdw duh hl0
wkhu uhjlrq 0 vshflf ru wkdw duh qrw htxdoo| lpsruwdqw dfurvv uhjlrqv1 Lq wklv
sdshu zh vwxg| wzr vxfk lqvwlwxwlrqv/ wkh zdjh guliw dqg wkh klgghq hfrq0
rp|/ dqg vkrz krz wkhlu xqhyhq glvwulexwlrq zlwklq d frxqwu| fdq dhfw wkh
uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq fkdqjhv lq uhjlrqdo oderu wd{hv/ d w|slfdo oderu ghpdqg
vkrfn +vhh Eodqfkdug +4<<;,,/ dqg uhjlrqdo xqhpsor|phqw4 1 Rxu hpslul0
fdo vwxg| irfxvhv rq wkh Lwdoldq h{shulhqfh1 Zh eholhyh wkdw Lwdo|/ zlwk lwv
kljk uhjlrqdo xqhpsor|phqw glvshuvlrq dqg ulvlqj oderu wd{hv/ surylghv dq
lqwhuhvwlqj fdvh vwxg| iru wkh sureohp dw kdqg1
Lq vslwh ri vlplodu qdwlrqdo oderu pdunhw lqvwlwxwlrqv/ zh vkrz wkdw wkh uh0
odwlrqvkls ehwzhhq xqhpsor|phqw dqg oderu wd{hv lq Lwdo| ydulhv vljqlfdqwo|
dfurvv jurxsv ri uhjlrqv dqg lv vwurqjhu lq wkh kljko| lqgxvwuldol}hg Qruwk
wkdq lq wkh xqghu0ghyhorshg Vrxwk1 Wklv uhvxow kdv wkh vrphzkdw xqsohdvdqw
4
Uhjlrqdo vkrfnv duh glvfxvvhg lq ghwdlo lq Euxqhoor hw do1 +5334,1
4
lpsolfdwlrq wkdw oderu wd{ fxwv kdyh/ fhwhulv sdulexv/ d sursruwlrqdoo| kljkhu
lpsdfw zkhuh xqhpsor|phqw lv shufhlyhg wr eh ohvv ri d sureohp1
D nh| vrxufh ri yduldwlrq lq wkh uhjlrqdo uhvsrqvlyhqhvv ri xqhpsor|phqw
wr fkdqjhv lq oderu wd{hv lv wkdw uhjlrqdo jurvv zdjhv lq wkh Qruwk lqfuhdvh
pruh wkdq lq wkh Vrxwk lq uhvsrqvh wr d klnh lq oderu wd{hv1 Zh h{sodlq
wkh kljkhu vhqvlwlylw| ri jurvv zdjhv lq wkh Qruwk erwk zlwk frpsrvlwlrq hi0
ihfwv +ehwzhhq lqgxvwuldo vhfwruv, dqg zlwk uhjlrqdo glhuhqfhv lq wkh uhodwlyh
lpsruwdqfh ri wkh zdjh guliw dqg ri wkh klgghq hfrqrp| +zlwklq lqgxvwuldo
vhfwruv,/ wzr uhohydqw uhjlrqdo oderu pdunhw lqvwlwxwlrqv1
Uhjlrqdo glhuhqfhv lq zdjh vhwwlqj dhfw uhjlrqdo hpsor|phqw +dqg xq0
hpsor|phqw, erwk gluhfwo| dqg lqgluhfwo|1 E| phdqv ri d vlpsoh h{huflvh/
zh vkrz wkdw wkh hvwlpdwhg uhjlrqdo glhuhqfhv lq wkh hodvwlflw| ri sulydwh
hpsor|phqw +dqg xqhpsor|phqw, wr fkdqjhv lq oderu wd{hv fdq eh ixoo| df0
frxqwhg iru rqo| li wkh uhjlrqdo fdslwdo vwrfn dovr dgmxvwv lq uhvsrqvh wr
wkhvh fkdqjhv1 Wkh hfrqrplf phfkdqlvp dw zrun kdv ehhq looxvwudwhg e|
Dohvlqd hw do1 +4<<<e,= dq lqfuhdvh lq oderu wd{hv wkdw udlvhv zdjhv dqg oderu
frvwv uhgxfhv surwv dqg sulydwh lqyhvwphqw/ wkxv dhfwlqj fdslwdo dffxpx0
odwlrq1 Vlqfh fdslwdo dqg oderu duh frpsohphqwv lq surgxfwlrq/ hpsor|phqw
lv qhjdwlyho| dhfwhg qrw rqo| gluhfwo| e| wkh lqfuhdvh lq oderu frvwv exw dovr
lqgluhfwo| ehfdxvh fdslwdo dffxpxodwlrq ghfolqhv5 1
Wkh sdshu lv rujdql}hg dv iroorzv1 Lq wkh qh{w vhfwlrq zh suhvhqw wkh
dydlodeoh hylghqfh rq wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq uhjlrqdo xqhpsor|phqw dqg
uhjlrqdo oderu wd{hv1 Lq vhfwlrq 6 zh dvn krz fdq wkh xqfryhuhg glhuhqfhv eh
h{sodlqhg1 Vhfwlrq 7 frqvlghuv lq ghwdlo wkh uroh ri uhjlrqdo zdjh vhwwlqj lqvwl0
wxwlrqv1 Wkh odvw vhfwlrq suhvhqwv d vlpsoh dffrxqwlqj h{huflvh1 Frqfoxvlrqv
dqg lpsolfdwlrqv iroorz1
5
Oderu Wd{hv dqg Xqhpsor|phqw
514
Wkh Gdwd
Wkh uhfrug rq xqhpsor|phqw kdv glhuhg pdunhgo| dprqj Lwdoldq uhjlrqv
vlqfh wkh hduo| 4<:3v1 Zh sorw lq Iljxuh 4 wkh dyhudjh dqqxdo xqhpsor|phqw
udwh lq wkh Qruwkhuq +Q iurp qrz rq, uhjlrqv dqg lq wkh ohvv ghyhorshg Vrxwk
+V iurp qrz rq, iurp 4<98 wr 4<<86 1 Wkh gdwd fohduo| vkrz wkdw uhjlrqdo
Wkh qhjdwlyh hhfw ri kljkhu oderu wd{hv rq sulydwh lqyhvwphqw uhtxluhv wkdw wkh qhjd0
wlyh lqfrph hhfw +orzhu surwv, suhydlo rq wkh srvlwlyh vxevwlwxwlrq hhfw +oderu ehfrphv
pruh h{shqvlyh wkdq fdslwdo,1
6
Wkh Qruwk lqfoxghv= Slhprqwh/ Orpedugld/ Yhqhwr/ Wuhqwlqr/ Iulxol/ Oljxuld dqg
Hplold1 Wkh Vrxwk lqfoxghv= Deux}}r/ Prolvh/ Fdpsdqld/ Sxjold/ Edvlolfdwd/ Fdodeuld/
5
5
unempl. rate North
unempl. rate South
.3
.2
.1
0
65
70
75
80
year
85
90
95
Iljxuh 4= Xqhpsor|phqw udwhv e| duhd1
xqhpsor|phqw glhuhqwldov kdyh zlghqhg/ hvshfldoo| vlqfh wkh plg 4<;3v +vhh
Euxqhoor/ Oxsl dqg Ruglqh +5334, iru d ghwdlohg glvfxvvlrq,1
Gxulqj wkh vdph shulrg/ wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh dyhudjh oderu wd{ zhgjh/
phdvxuhg dv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq hvwlpdwhg oderu wd{ sd|phqwv dqg wkh dyhudjh
jurvv zdjh/ kdv dovr glhuhg dfurvv uhjlrqv +vhh Iljxuh 5,1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh
sd|uroo wd{ zhgjh diwhu 4<9; lqfuhdvhg lq wkh Q uhjlrqv dqg ghfolqhg lq wkh
Vrxwk= e| wkh hduo| 4<;3v/ wkh jds ehwzhhq wkh wzr zhgjhv zdv forvh wr <
shufhqwdjh srlqwv/ dw ohvv wkdq 3158 lq wkh Vrxwk dqg dw forvh wr 3167 lq wkh
Q uhjlrqv1
Gxulqj wkh 4<;3v dqg wkh hduo| 4<<3v/ wkh sd|uroo wd{ zhgjh lqfuhdvhg
pruh ru ohvv dw wkh vdph sdfh lq erwk duhdv/ dqg wkh jds uhpdlqhg forvh
wr ; shufhqwdjh srlqwv1 Dv d uhvxow ri wkhvh ghyhorsphqwv/ wkh sd|uroo wd{
zhgjh lqfuhdvhg iurp 31656 wr 316;4 lq wkh Q duhdv dqg ghfolqhg gxulqj wkh
vdph shulrg iurp 31658 wr 31634 lq wkh Vrxwk1 D eurdgo| vlplodu sdwwhuq
hphujhv zkhq zh frqvlghu wkh wrwdo wd{ zhgjh +Iljxuh 6,/ wkdw lqfoxghv erwk
vrfldo vhfxulw| frqwulexwlrqv sdlg e| hpsor|hhv dqg oderu lqfrph wd{hv1 Lq
wklv fdvh/ wkh jds ehwzhhq wkh wzr pdfur uhjlrqv lq 4<<8 zdv kljkhu wkdq :
shufhqwdjh srlqwv1
Wkh pdlq uhdvrq iru wkh vljqlfdqw jds lq wkh uhjlrqdo oderu wd{ zhgjh lv
wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri wd{ euhdnv wdujhwhg hvshfldoo| +doehlw qrw h{foxvlyho|, dw
wkh Vrxwkhuq uhjlrqv lq wkh odwh 4<93v/ zkhq qhw zdjhv lq wkhvh uhjlrqv vwduwhg
Vlflold dqg Vdughjqd1
6
payroll tax wedge North
payroll tax wedge South
.4
.35
.3
.25
65
70
75
80
year
85
90
95
Iljxuh 5= Sd|uroo oderu wd{ udwhv e| duhd1
labor tax wedge North
labor tax wedge South
.6
.5
.4
.3
65
70
75
80
year
85
90
Iljxuh 6= Oderu wd{ zhgjh e| duhd1
7
95
wr lqfuhdvh diwhu wkh derolwlrq ri uhjlrqdo glhuhqfhv lq zdjh frqwudfwv +Vhh
Idlql +4<<6, dqg Pdoidwwl +4<<7, iru d ghwdlohg glvfxvvlrq ri wkhvh phdvxuhv,1
Wkh jxuhv vxjjhvw wkdw lq wkh sdvw wkluw| |hduv wkh udwh ri xqhpsor|0
phqw dqg wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh lq Lwdo| kdyh h{klelwhg vljqlfdqw yduldwlrq
erwk ryhu wlph dqg dfurvv jurxsv ri uhjlrqv1 Zh h{sorlw wklv yduldwlrq wr lq0
yhvwljdwh zkhwkhu wkhuh duh vljqlfdqw glhuhqfhv lq wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq
xqhpsor|phqw dqg oderu wd{hv lq wkh wzr duhdv ri wkh frxqwu|1
515
Wkh Hpslulfdo Hylghqfh
Iroorzlqj wkh dssurdfk srsxodul}hg e| Od|dug hw do1 +4<<4,/ zh fkdudfwhul}h
wkh orqj uxq hyroxwlrq ri uhjlrqdo oderu pdunhwv zlwk d sdlu ri htxdwlrqv/ d
uhjlrqdo +svhxgr, oderu ghpdqg dqg d uhjlrqdo zdjh vhwwlqj htxdwlrq1 Sulydwh
upv rshudwlqj lq uhjlrqdo pdunhwv vhw hpsor|phqw e| wdnlqj idfwru sulfhv
dv jlyhq dqg e| plqlpl}lqj surgxfwlrq frvwv1 Xvlqj vpdoo ohwwhuv iru orjv/
hpsor|phqw lq wkh sulydwh vhfwru lv ghqhg e|
e| ' e Eo| c R6| c E R| c +| +4,
zkhuh lv iru wkh uhjlrq dqg | iru wlph/ e lv hpsor|phqw/ R lv sulfhv/ lv
jurvv zdjhv/ o lv wkh uhdo udwh ri lqwhuhvw +lq ohyhov,/ R6 lv wkh uhdo sulfh ri
hqhuj| dqg + lv uhdo ydoxh dgghg1
Lq xqlrql}hg oderu pdunhwv/ zdjhv duh vhw e| edujdlqlqj ehwzhhq xqlrqv
dqg hpsor|huv1 Xqlrqv fduh derxw zdjh jdlqv ryhu wkh dowhuqdwlyh zdjh dqg
upv fduh derxw surwv1 Edujdlqlqj lq wkh sulydwh vhfwru fdq rffxu erwk dw
wkh vhfwruldo dqg dw wkh orfdo ohyho1 D w|slfdo rxwfrph ri wkh edujdlq lv wkdw
jurvv zdjhv lqfuhdvh zlwk wkh dowhuqdwlyh ydoxh ri wlph +K, dqg zlwk oderu
surgxfwlylw| ++ e, dqg ghfuhdvh zlwk wkh udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw +L , +vhh
Errwk +4<<8,,1 D kljkhu oderu wd{ zhgjh lqfuhdvhv jurvv zdjhv li wkhuh lv
uhdo zdjh uhvlvwdqfh dqg xqlrqv duh deoh wr vkliw sduw ru doo ri wkh wd{ exughq
dzd| iurp qhw zdjhv +vhh Slvvdulghv +4<<;, iru d glvfxvvlrq,1
Lq lpsolflw irup/ uhjlrqdo jurvv zdjhv lq wkh sulydwh vhfwru duh jlyhq e|
E R| ' EK| c L| c u| c E+ e| +5,
zkhuh u lv wkh +orj, uhjlrqdo oderu wd{ zhgjh lq wkh sulydwh vhfwru/ lqfoxvlyh
ri sd|uroo dqg oderu lqfrph wd{hv1
Dvvxplqj wkdw L| '  e| / zkhuh wkh uhjlrqdo oderu irufh kdv ehhq
qrupdol}hg wr xqlw|/ uhjlrqdo htxloleulxp xqhpsor|phqw lv rewdlqhg e| xvlqj
+5, lqwr +4,/ zklfk |lhogv lq lpsolflw irup7
Zh iroorz Od|dug hw do +4<<4, lq lpsrvlqj wkh uhvwulfwlrq wkdw/ lq wkh orqj uxq/ htxl0
oleulxp xqhpsor|phqw lv qrw dhfwhg e| uhdo rxwsxw shu khdg1
7
8
L| ' E u| c R6| c o| c K| +6,
Lq wklv olwhudwxuh/ wkh dowhuqdwlyh ydoxh ri wlph K kdv ehhq ghqhg dv wkh
h{shfwhg lqfrph iurp dowhuqdwlyh rswlrqv lq wkh hyhqw wkdw wkh edujdlq idlov
wr uhdfk d vhwwohphqw +vhh Od|dug/ Qlfnhoo dqg Mdfnpdq +4<<4,,1 Li wkhvh
rswlrqv duh hlwkhu xqhpsor|phqw ru sxeolf hpsor|phqw/ h{shfwhg lqfrph lv
htxdo wr wkh zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri lqfrph iurp xqhpsor|phqw dqg iurp sxeolf
hpsor|phqw/ zkhuh wkh zhljkwv duh wkh suredelolwlhv ri xqhpsor|phqw dqg
hpsor|phqw lq wkh sxeolf vhfwru1
Dq dowhuqdwlyh rswlrq lv wr phdvxuh K zlwk uhdo shu fdslwd lqfrph iurp
vrfldo zhdowk/ l +Ilwrxvvl ho dw +5333,,1 Wkh xqghuo|lqj lghd lv wkdw wkh
kljkhu wklv lqfrph/ wkh orzhu wkh lqfhqwlyh wr zrun lq wkh sulydwh vhfwru
dqg wkh kljkhu wkh zdjh wkdw qhhgv wr eh sdlg wr dwwudfw zrunhuv iurp wkh
xqhpsor|phqw srro dqg wkh sxeolf vhfwru wr sulydwh hpsor|phqw1 Ilwrxvvl
hw do1 ghqh l dv uhdo lqfrph iurp vrfldo dvvlvwdqfh dqg vrfldo lqvxudqfh/
lqfoxvlyh ri xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv1 Zh dovr dgg wkh qhw uhdo zdjh eloo lq
wkh sxeolf vhfwru dqg frpsxwh l dv wkh udwlr ri wrwdo +uhjlrqdo, uhdo lqfrph
iurp vrfldo zhdowk wr +uhjlrqdo, dfwlyh srsxodwlrq1
Qrwlfh wkdw rxu phdvxuh lv vlplodu wr wkh h{shfwhg lqfrph iurp dowhu0
qdwlyh rswlrqv rxwvlgh wkh sulydwh vhfwru1 Zh pdlqo| dgg wr lw shu fdslwd
uhdo shqvlrq lqfrph1 Wklv lqfrph surylghv rssruwxqlwlhv iru lqwhu0krxvhkrog
uhglvwulexwlrq iurp wkh uhwluhg rog wr wkh xqhpsor|hg |rxqj dqg frqwulexwhv
wr lqfuhdvlqj wkh uhvhuydwlrq zdjh dwwdfkhg wr mrev lq wkh sulydwh vhfwru8 1
Zh phdvxuh wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh lq wkh sulydwh vhfwru u| dv vrfldo vhfx0
ulw| frqwulexwlrqv sdlg e| hpsor|huv dqg hpsor|hhv soxv hvwlpdwhg lqfrph
wd{hv sdlg e| hpsor|hhv dv d shufhqwdjh ri wkh jurvv zdjh1 Ghwdlov rq wkh
frqvwuxfwlrq ri wkh uhjlrqdo oderu wd{ zhgjh duh surylghg lq wkh Dsshqgl{ dw
wkh hqg ri wkh sdshu1 Rxu hpslulfdo hylghqfh lv rujdql}hg lqwr wzr vxevhf0
wlrqv= wkh uvw vxevhfwlrq lv ghyrwhg wr uhjlrq e| uhjlrq hvwlpdwhv/ wkh vhfrqg
vxevhfwlrq orrnv dw srrohg uhjlrqdo gdwd dqg frqvlghuv sdqho frlqwhjudwlrq
whvwv1
51514
Hylghqfh edvhg rq uhjlrq e| uhjlrq hvwlpdwhv
Lq wklv vhfwlrq zh hvwlpdwh d g|qdplf yhuvlrq ri +6, uhjlrq e| uhjlrq1 Xvlqj
d vwdqgdug qrwdwlrq zh ghqh
kEu| ' S n | Eu n D |
+7,
Ehqwrolod dqg Lfklqr +4<<;, glvfxvv lqwud0krxvhkrog wudqvihuv lq wkh frqwh{w ri Vrxwkhuq
Hxurshdq xqhpsor|phqw1
8
9
zkhuh | ' E u| c R6| c l | c o| dqg D | duh uhvlgxdov1 Lq rughu wr jdlq h!0
flhqf|/ wkh prgho lv uhsdudphwul}hg dqg hvwlpdwhg dv d +jhqhudol}hg, HFP
+huuru fruuhfwlrq phfkdqlvp,1 Vlqfh prvw ri wkh yduldeohv lq +7, duh olnho|
wr eh qrq0vwdwlrqdu|/ zh whvw iru frlqwhjudwlrq xvlqj d yhuvlrq ri wkh Edqhu0
mhh/ Grodgr/ dqg Phvwuh +EGP, whvw/ dqg frpsxwh h{rjhqhlw| whvwv iru wkh
frqwhpsrudqhrxv uljkw kdqg vlgh uhjuhvvruv1 Wkh h{rjhqhlw| whvwv duh edvhg
rq wkh iroorzlqj surfhgxuh= wkh uhvlgxdov ri +svhxgr, pdujlqdo prghov/ vshf0
lhg lq wkh irup ri YDUv/ duh lqwurgxfhg lq wkh frqglwlrqdo prghov/ dqg wkh
+mrlqw, vljqlfdqfh ri wkh sdudphwhu+v, ri wkh uhvlgxdov lv whvwhg1 H{rjhqhlw|
lv uhmhfwhg zkhq wkh sdudphwhuv duh vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw iurp }hur1
Rxu uhvxowv duh vxppdul}hg lq Wdeoh 41 Wkh qglqjv duh eurdgo| frqvlv0
whqw zlwk rxu suhylrxv zrun +vhh Euxqhoor hw do1/ +5334,, dqg lqglfdwh wkdw/ rq
dyhudjh/ wkh lpsdfw ri wkh wd{ zhgjh lq wkh Q uhjlrqv lv pruh wkdq grxeoh wkh
dyhudjh lpsdfw lq wkh V uhjlrqv1 Xvlqj oderu irufh zhljkwv/ wkh dyhudjh orqj
uxq hodvwlflw| ri xqhpsor|phqw wr oderu wd{hv lv Hb. +3195:, lq wkh Qruwk
dqg e2 +313::, lq wkh Vrxwk9 1 Wkh glhuhqfh lq wkh hodvwlflwlhv wxuqv rxw
wr eh vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw iurp }hur1
Lw lv xvhixo wr frpsduh wkhvh hvwlpdwhv wr wkrvh rewdlqhg e| Gdyhul dqg
Wdehoolql +5333,/ Wdeoh </ sdjh :8/ zkr qg wkdw lq frqwlqhqwdo Hxursh wkh
frh!flhqw ri oderu wd{hv lq wkh xqhpsor|phqw htxdwlrq udqjhv ehwzhhq 315<
dqg 31871 Xvlqj wkh dyhudjh ydoxhv ri xqhpsor|phqw dqg oderu wd{hv e| duhd/
rxu hodvwlflwlhv lpso| wkdw wkh hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqw lv fD lq wkh Qruwkhuq uh0
jlrqv dqg fb lq wkh Vrxwk/ zlwklq wkh udqjh irxqg e| Gdyhul dqg Wdehoolql: 1
Frpsduhg wr wkh qglqjv lq wkh olwhudwxuh +Qlfnhoo dqg Ydq Rxuv +5333,,/
wkhvh hodvwlflwlhv duh txlwh odujh1 Wkh| vxjjhvw wkdw d fI uhgxfwlrq lq wkh od0
eru wd{ zhgjh/ jlyhq uhdo lqfrph iurp vrfldo zhdowk/ zrxog uhgxfh Qruwkhuq
htxloleulxp xqhpsor|phqw e| 6;1<( dqg Vrxwkhuq htxloleulxp xqhpsor|0
phqw e| 4417(; 1 Li zh doorz uhdo lqfrph iurp vrfldo zhdowk wr dgmxvw zlwk
wkh fkdqjh lq oderu wd{hv/ wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh hodvwlflwlhv ri xqhpsor|phqw
Zhljkwhg vwdqgdug huuruv zlwklq sduhqwkhvhv1
3=38;
b
Lq wkh Qruwk zh kdyh wkdw CX
C @ 6=;<: 3=75< @ 3=86/ zkhuh lv wkh ohyho ri wkh oderu
CX
3
=45<
wd{ zhgjh= Lq wkh Vrxwk zh rewdlq C @ 4=475 3=6:8 @ 3=6<=
;
E| htxloleulxp xqhpsor|phqw zh phdq wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh wkdw zrxog suhydlo lq
d vwhdg| vwdwh/ zkhq doo vkruw whup yduldwlrqv/ lqfoxglqj fkdqjhv lq wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq/
duh vhw wr }hur1
9
:
:
ghfolqh lq erwk duhdv exw pruh vljqlfdqwo| lq wkh Vrxwk< 1
Zh dovr qg wkdw shu fdslwd uhdo lqfrph iurp vrfldo zhdowk l kdv d qhjd0
wlyh lq xhqfh lq wkh Qruwk dqg d srvlwlyh lq xhqfh lq wkh Vrxwk1 Dv dujxhg
lq Euxqhoor hw do1 +5334,/ wkh pdlq hhfw ri d kljkhu l lq wkh Vrxwk kdv ehhq
erwk wr uhgxfh wkh lqfhqwlyh wr pljudwh ri wkh |rxqj xqhpsor|hg dqg wr
lqfuhdvh wkhlu uhvhuydwlrq zdjhv/ wkxv hqfrxudjlqj zdlw xqhpsor|phqw dqg
txhxhlqj iru sxeolf vhfwru mrev1 Wklv qhjdwlyh hhfw kdv suhydlohg ryhu wkh
srvlwlyh hhfw rq xqhpsor|phqw lqgxfhg e| kljkhu sxeolf hpsor|phqw43 1 Lq
wkh Qruwk/ lqvwhdg/ wkh suhydlolqj idfwru ehklqg wkh lqfuhdvh lq l kdv ehhq
hpsor|phqw vxevwlwxwlrq ri wkh uhwlulqj rog zlwk |rxqj oderu pdunhw hq0
wudqwv/ hvshfldoo| lq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj lqgxvwu| gxulqj wkh vhfrqg sduw ri
wkh 4<;3v1 Frpsduhg wr wkh Vrxwk/ oderu irufh rxw rzv gxh wr uhwluhphqw
lq wkh Qruwk kdyh ehhq dffrpsdqlhg e| hpsor|phqw lq rzv udwkhu wkdq e|
zdlw xqhpsor|phqw1 Wkhuhiruh/ wkh srvlwlyh hhfwv rq xqhpsor|phqw yld
kljkhu sxeolf vhfwru hpsor|phqw kdyh grplqdwhg wkh qhjdwlyh hhfwv yld wkh
kljkhu uhvhuydwlrq zdjh lq wkh sulydwh vhfwru1
Wkh sulfh zhgjh R6 dsshduv wr kdyh ehhq pruh lpsruwdqw lq wkh Qruwk/
dqg kdv kdg d vljqlfdqw lpsdfw lq wkh Vrxwk rqo| iru Vdughjqd44 1 Ilqdoo|/
dqg rqo| iru vrph uhjlrqv/ zh qg hylghqfh ri d qhjdwlyh dvvrfldwlrq ehwzhhq
wkh uhdo udwh ri lqwhuhvw dqg uhjlrqdo xqhpsor|phqw1 Zh vshfxodwh wkdw d
kljkhu uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh lqfuhdvhv wkh frvw ri fdslwdo dqg uhgxfhv surwv dqg
lqyhvwphqw/ zlwk qhjdwlyh hhfwv rq xqhpsor|phqw1
Wxuqlqj wr wkh hylghqfh lq idyru ri frlqwhjudwlrq dprqj wkh yduldeohv lq
+6,/ uhvxowv duh pruh fohdu0fxw iru qruwkhuq uhjlrqv/ zkhuh zh qg dozd|v
frlqwhjudwlrq1 Lq vrxwkhuq uhjlrqv uhvxowv duh pl{hg1 Wkhuh duh wzr uhjlrqv
+Fdpsdqld dqg Sxjold, iru zklfk zh frxog qrw qg dq| orqj uxq uhodwlrqvkls
dprqj wkh vhohfwhg yduldeohv> lq rwkhu wzr lqvwdqfhv +Prolvh dqg Edvlolfdwd,
zh kdyh irxqg d vljqlfdqw orqj uxq uhodwlrqvkls/ exw wkh s0ydoxhv ri wkh
frlqwhjudwlrq whvwv uhvxowhg forvh wr 58(45 1
<
Zkhq vrfldo zhdowk lv doorzhg wr ydu| zlwk wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh/ zh rewdlq
g
oq X @ C oq X . C oq X C
g
C
C C
oq X @ 4=36;> C @ 3=568 lq wkh Qruwk dqg C oq X @ 3=6<8/ C @ 3=;63
Zh hvwlpdwh C C
C
C
C
lq wkh Vrxwk1 Ghwdlov rq wkh hvwlpdwhv duh dydlodeoh iurp wkh dxwkruv xsrq uhtxhvw1
43
Uhfdoo wkdw rxu ghqlwlrq ri lqfoxghv dovr sxeolf hpsor|phqw1
44
Wklv dv|pphwu| fdq khos h{sodlq wkh dv|pphwulf ehkdylru ri uhjlrqdo xqhpsor|phqw
iurp wkh 4<;3v rqzdugv/ zkhq wkh uhdo sulfh ri hqhuj| gudpdwlfdoo| ghfolqhg iurp wkh shdn
uhdfkhg gxulqj wkh Ludqldq uhyroxwlrq1
45
H{rjhqhlw| whvwv fdqqrw uhmhfw wkh qxoo lq doo wkh uhjlrqv1
;
Wdeoh 4= Vwdwlf orqj0uxq sdudphwhuv lq uhjlrqdo uhjuhvvlrqv
Uhjlrq
R6
l
o
XU
H{
Qruwkhuq Uhjlrqv
Slhprqwh
61954
31493 031:43
0714:<W
+VH,
+4137;, +31386, +3174:,
Orpedugld
81;<8
31548 041:45 031373 071;<8W 31:54
+VH,
+419::, +31376, +318<7, +31353,
Wuhqwlqr D1D1
61:57
315<: 0417;9
0715;3W 31633
+VH,
+41669, +313:6, +31956,
Yhqhwr
514;4
31553 0319;5
0915;9WW 31879
+VH,
+3178:, +31356, +3153;,
Iulxol Y1J1
61;:;
31549 031<<5
0:15:8WW 314;:
+VH,
+31738, +31354, +314::,
Oljxuld
41<75 031373 031356 031365 071<7;W 31<58
+VH,
+31;:5, +3135:, +31637, +3134:,
Hplold U1
5185<
31484 031994 031357 091873WW
+VH,
+31836, +3134;, +314::, +3133:,
Vrxwkhuq Uhjlrqv
Deux}}r
31959
316<7
31344 07159;W
+VH,
+31635,
+313:4, +31339,
Prolvh
51494
413<8
05157; 31835
+VH,
+31<7<,
+31537,
Fdpsdqld
0313;;
0319;8 31667
+VH,
+31<68,
Sxjold
3186<
+VH,
Edvlolfdwd
41;:<
319;4
051965
+VH,
+319;5,
+31487,
Fdodeuld
41::<
31;69
071658W 31:<3
+VH,
+315<:,
+313;4,
Vlflold
51:89
31;44
071764W 316<;
+VH,
+31543,
+313:6,
Vdughjqd
515<3
314<8
319<6
0619;5 31<<9
+VH,
+31897, +3138;, +31533,
Wkh sdudphwhuv uhsruwhg lq wklv wdeoh fruuhvsrqg wr wkh sdudphwhuv ri
wkh orqj uxq vroxwlrqv ri +7,1 XU lv wkh EGP whvw iru frlqwhjudwlrq=
rqh dvwhulvn dqg wzr dvwhulvnv lqglfdwh 8( dqg 4( ohyho ri vljqlfdqfh/
uhvshfwlyho|1 H[ lv wkh s0ydoxh ri wkh whvw ri h{rjhqhlw| ri wkh
frqwhpsrudqhrxv uhjuhvvruv1 Wkh whvw lv qrw frpsxwhg zkhq rqo|
odjjhg yduldeohv hqwhu +7,1 VH lv wkh vwdqgdug huuru1
<
Wdeoh 5= Qrqolqhdu ohdvw vtxduhv1 Il{hg hhfwv1 Vdpsoh shulrg= 4<9804<<81
Ghshqghqw yduldeoh= { |
Qruwk
Vrxwk
c|3
31685 +3133,
03153< +3133,
uc|3
61<78 +3133,
51987 +3133,
l c|3
031<<: +3133,
3198< +3133,
R6c|3
314;: +3133,
3
oc|3
031376 +3133,
031375 +3135,
Zdog Whvw
+31355,
Qrev
54:
57;
U2
316:
3157
Qrwh= S0ydoxhv zlwklq sduhqwkhvhv1 Hdfk
uhjuhvvlrq lqfoxghv uhjlrqdo gxpplhv/ wkh
fxuuhqw dqg wkh odjjhg fkdqjh lq lq dwlrq
dqg g|qdplf whupv ri wkh uljkw kdqg vlgh
yduldeohv1
51515
Hylghqfh iurp srrohg gdwd
D srwhqwldo sureohp zlwk wkh hpslulfdo hvwlpdwhv lq wkh suhylrxv vxe 0 vhfwlrq
lv wkdw vdpsoh vl}hv duh vpdoo1 Lq wklv vhfwlrq zh h{sorlw erwk wkh wlph vhulhv
dqg wkh furvv vhfwlrq yduldwlrq lq wkh gdwd e| srrolqj uhjlrqv lqwr wzr jurxsv/
wkh Q dqg V jurxs/ dqg e| hvwlpdwlqj wzr vhsdudwh htxdwlrqv/ rqh iru hdfk
jurxs/ e| qrqolqhdu ohdvw vtxduhv/ xvlqj uhjlrqdo gxpplhv dv {hg hhfwv1
Wkh vshflfdwlrq lv edvhg rq wkh huuru fruuhfwlrq phfkdqlvp/ dqg zh wu| wr
prgho wkh vkruw0whup g|qdplfv e| lqfoxglqj lq hdfk uhjuhvvlrq wkh fxuuhqw
dqg wkh odjjhg fkdqjhv lq wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq/ dv vxjjhvwhg e| Od|dug hw do1
+4<<4,1 Wkh uhvxowv duh lq Wdeoh 51
Wkh wdeoh frqupv wkdw wkh orqj uxq hodvwlflw| ri xqhpsor|phqw wr oderu
wd{hv lv vljqlfdqwo| kljkhu lq wkh Qruwk wkdq lq wkh Vrxwk +beD yhuvxv
2SDe,1 Pruhryhu/ d Zdog whvw uhmhfwv dw wkh 8( ohyho ri frqghqfh wkh qxoo
k|srwkhvlv wkdw wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkhvh hodvwlflwlhv eh htxdo wr }hur1
Zh whvw frlqwhjudwlrq lq sdqho gdwd diwhu srrolqj wkh dydlodeoh wlph vhulhv
dqg furvv vhfwlrq lqirupdwlrq vhsdudwho| iru wkh Qruwk dqg wkh Vrxwk1 Rxu
whvwv duh edvhg rq wkh whfkqltxh ghyhorshg e| Shgurql +4<<<,1 Shgurql*v whvwv
dsso| wr sdqho gdwd dqg frqvlvw ri frpsxwlqj uhvlgxdov0edvhg vwdwlvwlfv wr whvw
wkh qxoo k|srwkhvlv ri qr frlqwhjudwlrq djdlqvw wkh dowhuqdwlyh ri frlqwhjudwlqj
+dqg khwhurjhqhrxv, yhfwruv1 Wkh frlqwhjudwlrq whvwv duh ruljlqdoo| vhyhq/ exw
43
Wdeoh 6= Sdqho frlqwhjudwlrq whvwv
Qruwkhuq Uhjlrqv
qr wuhqg khwhurjhqhrxv wuhqg
sdqho y0vwdw
41<:9
315<8
sdqho DGI
041;4;
0516;;
jurxs DGI
041:75
05188:
& uhjuhvvruv
7
Qrev
54:
Vrxwkhuq Uhjlrqv
sdqho y0vwdw
51347
5176<
sdqho DGI
061386
061:5:
jurxs DGI
0614;4
061;;;
& uhjuhvvruv
7
Qrev
57;
Qrwh= Doo vwdwlvwlfv duh rqh0wdlohg whvwv1 Fulw0
lfdo ydoxh dw 8( ohyho lv 41978 iru sdqho y0vwdw
dqg 041978 iru wkh uhpdlqlqj whvwv1
zh uho| rq wkrvh zlwk kljkhu srzhu lq wkh vshflf frqwh{w ri rxu sdqho46 1 Lq
sduwlfxodu/ zh xvh wkh sdqho yduldqfh/ wkh sdqho DGI dqg wkh jurxs DGI
vwdwlvwlfv/ diwhu doorzlqj wzr odjv lq wkh g|qdplf vshflfdwlrq1 Zkloh wkh
iruphu wzr vwdwlvwlfv srro dfurvv uhjlrqv wkh dxwruhjuhvvlyh frh!flhqwv ri wkh
uhvlgxdov/ wkh odwwhu whvw doorzv wkh dxwruhjuhvvlyh frh!flhqw wr ydu| dfurvv
uhjlrqv xqghu wkh frlqwhjudwlrq k|srwkhvlv/ wkhuhe| dgglqj dq dgglwlrqdo
vrxufh ri khwhurjhqhlw| lq wkh sdqho1 Wdeoh 6 uhsruwv rxu uhvxowv1 Zkhq zh
gr qrw lqfoxgh d wuhqg dprqj wkh uhjuhvvruv/ doo wkh whvwv uhmhfw wkh qxoo ri qr
frlqwhjudwlrq dw 8( ohyho1 Li dq khwhurjhqhrxv wuhqg lv lqfoxghg/ sdqho dqg
jurxs DGI vwloo uhmhfw odfn ri frlqwhjudwlrq1
Wr vxppdul}h/ wkh nh| qglqj lq wklv vhfwlrq lv wkdw wkh orqj uxq hodvwlflw|
ri xqhpsor|phqw wr fkdqjhv lq wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh lv vljqlfdqwo| kljkhu lq
wkh Qruwkhuq uhjlrqv wkdq lq wkh xqghu0ghyhorshg Vrxwk1 D qdwxudo srolf|
lpsolfdwlrq lv wkdw d xqlirup uhgxfwlrq lq wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh dfurvv wkh
frxqwu| zrxog uhgxfh htxloleulxp xqhpsor|phqw lq wkh Qruwk sursruwlrqdoo|
pruh wkdq lq wkh Vrxwk/ zkhuh htxloleulxp xqhpsor|phqw lv suhvxpdeo|
pxfk kljkhu1 Dqrwkhu lpsolfdwlrq lv wkdw xqlirup fkdqjhv lq wkh oderu wd{
zhgjh dhfw wkh uhjlrqdo glvwulexwlrq ri htxloleulxp xqhpsor|phqw1
Shgurql +4<<:, vlpxodwhv wkh ohyho ri vljqlfdqfh dqg srzhu ri wkh whvwv xqghu vhyhudo
vfhqdulrv1 Jlyhq wkh idfw wkdw zh kdyh 64 |hduv dqg : ru ; uhjlrqv/ zh uho| rq wkh whvwv
zklfk shuiruphg ehwwhu lq Shgurql*v vlpxodwlrqv zlwk 53 |hduv dqg 53 sdqho revhuydwlrqv1
46
44
6
H{sodlqlqj Xqfryhuhg Glhuhqfhv
Krz gr zh h{sodlq wkh xqfryhuhg glhuhqfh lq wkh uhjlrqdo uhvsrqvlyhqhvv ri
htxloleulxp xqhpsor|phqw wr fkdqjhv lq oderu wd{hvB Wkh dssurdfk iroorzhg
e| Eodqfkdug dqg Zroihuv dqg Gdyhul dqg Wdehoolql dqg edvhg rq wkh lqwhu0
dfwlrq ehwzhhq qdwlrqdo lqvwlwxwlrqv dqg vkrfnv zrxog dqvzhu wklv txhvwlrq
e| dujxlqj wkdw
111wkh xqhpsor|phqw hhfw ri oderu wd{hv ghshqgv fuxfldoo|
rq wkh zdjh vhwwlqj lqvwlwxwlrqv1 +Gdyhul dqg Wdehoolql/ 5333/
s185,1
Zdjh vhwwlqj lqvwlwxwlrqv vxfk dv wkh ghjuhh ri frusrudwlvp/ krzhyhu/
duh pdlqo| qdwlrqdo duudqjhphqwv1 Dvlgh iurp dv|pphwulf uhvsrqvhv wr wkh
frpelqdwlrq ri qdwlrqdo ru uhjlrqdo vkrfnv zlwk qdwlrqdo lqvwlwxwlrqv/ zdjh
vhwwlqj fdq frqwulexwh wr h{sodlq wkh xqfryhuhg zlwklq0frxqwu| glhuhqfhv
rqo| li lw h{klelwv vljqlfdqw uhjlrqdo yduldwlrq1
Ehiruh h{sorulqj wkh srwhqwldo vrxufhv ri uhjlrqdo yduldwlrq lq zdjh vhw0
wlqj/ krzhyhu/ lw lv xvhixo wr jr edfn wr wkh vwdqgdug ghqlwlrq ri wkh uhjlrqdo
udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw
L| '  | @| }|
+8,
zkhuh lv wkh sulydwh hpsor|phqw2oderu irufh udwlr/ @ lv wkh vhoi 0 hpsor|0
phqw2oderu irufh udwlr dqg } lv wkh sxeolf vhfwru hpsor|phqw2oderu irufh
udwlr1
Wrwdo glhuhqwldwlrq ri +8, zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh |lhogv
# ' @
# ? #
L
L ?@c
+9,
zkhuh # lv wkh hodvwlflw| zlwk uhvshfw wr fkdqjhv lq u 1 Vlqfh uhjlrqdo sxe0
olf hpsor|phqw lv d srolf| yduldeoh/ zh gr qrw h{shfw lw wr eh vljqlfdqwo|
dhfwhg e| wkh wd{ zhgjh1 Li dq| fdxvdo uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq wkhvh wzr ydul0
deohv h{lvw/ lw lv olnho| wr uxq iurp sxeolf hpsor|phqw wr wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh1
Lq wkh suhvhqfh ri vxevwdqwldo uhglvwulexwlrq e| phdqv ri sxeolf hpsor|phqw/
wklv uhodwlrqvkls fdq eh udwkhu orrvh dw wkh uhjlrqdo ohyho +vhh Dohvlqd hw do1
+4<<<,,1
H{suhvvlrq +9, frqyh|v wzr vlpsoh srlqwv1 Iluvw/ hyhq zkhq wkh hpsor|0
phqw dqg vhoi0hpsor|phqw hodvwlflwlhv gr qrw ydu| dfurvv uhjlrqv/ wkh xqhp0
sor|phqw hodvwlflw| fdq ydu| ehfdxvh ri glhuhqfhv lq wkh uhjlrqdo glvwulexwlrq
ri wkh oderu irufh1 Wdeoh 7 kljkoljkwv wkh lpsruwdqw glhuhqfhv lq wkh dyhu0
djh glvwulexwlrq ri wkh oderu irufh lq wkh Qruwk dqg Vrxwk1 Wkh Qruwkhuq
45
Wdeoh 7= Uhodwlyh Zhljkwv e| duhd1 Dyhudjhv 4<980<81
@
L
L
}
L
Qruwk 43139 8194 51:3
Vrxwk 61;4 616< 416:
uhjlrqv kdyh vljqlfdqwo| orzhu xqhpsor|phqw udwhv/ dqg frqvhtxhqwo| wkhlu
hpsor|phqw 0 xqhpsor|phqw udwlrv duh uhpdundeo| kljkhu wkdq lq wkh Vrxwk1
Vhfrqg/ dq h{foxvlyh irfxv rq wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq sulydwh vhfwru
zdjhv dqg oderu wd{hv ulvnv wr ryhuorrn wkh lpsruwdqfh ri fkdqjhv lq vhoi0
hpsor|phqw zkhq wd{hv fkdqjh1 Wkhvh fkdqjhv kdyh wkh srwhqwldo ri xqgrlqj
wkh lpsdfw ri uhjlrqdo glhuhqfhv lq zdjh vhwwlqj/ wkdw dhfw # ? / rq wkh
uhjlrqdo xqhpsor|phqw udwh1
Li zh kdg dq hvwlpdwh ri # ?@c / zh frxog xvh +9, wr ghulyh wkh sulydwh hp0
sor|phqw2oderu irufh hodvwlflw| frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh hvwlpdwhg xqhpsor|phqw
hodvwlflw| # Wr hvwlpdwh # ?@c / zh srro doo uhjlrqv dqg hvwlpdwh dq HFP
prgho wkdw dvvrfldwhv lq wkh orqj uxq wkh uhjlrqdo +orj, vhoi 0 hpsor|phqw
2 oderu irufh udwlr wr wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh +lq orjv, dqg +orj, uhdo uhjlrqdo
ydoxh dgghg shu khdg/ + e1 Zh lqfoxgh lqwhudfwlrqv ehwzhhq wkh uljkw kdqg
vlgh yduldeohv dqg wkh gxpp| 7 +Vrxwk@4, dqg xvh ihdvleoh jhqhudol}hg ohdvw
vtxduhv +IJOV, wr ghdo zlwk wkh srwhqwldo suhvhqfh erwk ri frqwhpsrudqhrxv
fruuhodwlrq dqg ri uhjlrq 0 vshflf uvw rughu vhuldo fruuhodwlrq lq wkh huuru
whupv1
Diwhu vhtxhqwldo vlpsolfdwlrq edvhg rq gursslqj wkh yduldeohv zlwk dq
lqvljqlfdqw frh!flhqw +S0ydoxh 3143,/ zh rewdlq wkh uhvxowv lq Wdeoh 81
Rzlqj wr wkh vhfxodu ghfolqh ri djulfxowxuh/ wkh vkduh ri vhoi0hpsor|hg lqgl0
ylgxdov ghfolqhv lq erwk jurxsv ri uhjlrqv zkhq uhdo ydoxh dgghg shu khdg
lqfuhdvhv1 Wkh orqj uxq hodvwlflw| ri wkh vhoi 0 hpsor|phqw wr oderu irufh
udwlr zlwk uhvshfw wr fkdqjhv lq oderu wd{hv lv f2HH +s0ydoxh= 3133, lq wkh
Qruwk dqg qrw vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw iurp }hur +s0ydoxh= 31<3, lq wkh Vrxwk1
Zh h{shfw wkdw dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh lq wkh sulydwh vhfwru ohdgv
wr d vxevwlwxwlrq ri hpsor|phqw pdlqo| zlwk vhoi 0 hpsor|phqw lq wkh Qruwk
dqg zlwk lqirupdo hpsor|phqw lq wkh Vrxwk1
Xvlqj rxu uhvxowv lq Wdeoh 4 rq wkh orqj uxq xqhpsor|phqw hodvwlflw| e|
duhd dqg wkh zhljkwv lq Wdeoh 5/ zh fdq frpsxwh wkh ydoxh ri # ? lq hdfk jurxs
ri uhjlrqv wkdw lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk +9,1 Lw wxuqv rxw wkdw #? ' fDe. lq wkh
Qruwk dqg wr fff lq wkh Vrxwk47 1 Khqfh/ rxu qglqj wkdw wkh hodvwlflw|
ri xqhpsor|phqw wr oderu wd{hv lv kljkhu lq wkh Qruwk lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk dq
devroxwh ydoxh ri wkh hodvwlflw| ri sulydwh vhfwru hpsor|phqw wr oderu wd{hv
47
CQ
Wklv fruuhvsrqgv wr CQ
C @ 3=9;< lq wkh Qruwk dqg wr C @ 3=64; lq wkh Vrxwk1
46
Wdeoh 8= Il{hg Hhfwv Hvwlpdwhv ri wkh Vhoi0hpsor|phqw2Oderu Irufh Udwlr1
Phwkrg= IJOV1 Vdpsoh shulrg= 4<9804<<81 Ghshqghqw yduldeoh= {?@|
Frh!flhqw
S0ydoxh
?@c|3
031685
3135
7 ?@c|3
313:7
313:
E+ ec|3
031494
3133
7 E+ ec|3
313<7
3133
uc|3
31435
3133
7 uc|3
03143:
3137
A oe?_
031335
3136
Qrev
798
Qrwh= Wkh uhjuhvvlrq lqfoxghv uhjlrqdo gxp0
plhv> Wuhqg lv d olqhdu wuhqg1
wkdw lv derxw wzlfh dv kljk lq wkh Qruwk dv lq wkh Vrxwk1
Lw lv xvhixo wr ghqh wkh orj vkduh ri uhjlrqdo sulydwh hpsor|phqw lq wkh
oderu irufh ?| dv ?| ' ?d|c %| o/ zkhuh % lv d yhfwru ri yduldeohv wkdw dhfw
oderu ghpdqg1 Vlqfh
Y?
Y? Y% Y
#? '
n
+:,
Y Y% Y Y wkh xqfryhuhg kljkhu hodvwlflw| ri sulydwh hpsor|phqw +dv d vkduh ri wkh oderu
irufh, wr fkdqjhv lq wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh lq wkh Qruwk fdq eh gxh wr uhjlrqdo
glhuhqfhv lq
wkh jurvv zdjh hodvwlflw| ri sulydwh hpsor|phqw
wkh hodvwlflw| ri jurvv zdjhv wr oderu wd{hv
Y?
>
Y
Y
>
Y wkh lpsdfw ri wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh rq hpsor|phqw yld lwv hhfwv rq %/
Y? Y% Y
Y% Y Y Zh frqvlghu wkhvh glhuhqfhv lq wkh qh{w wzr vhfwlrqv ri wkh sdshu1
7
Wkh Uroh ri Uhjlrqdo Zdjh Vhwwlqj Lqvwl0
wxwlrqv
Zdjh vhwwlqj lq Lwdo| lv fkdudfwhul}hg e| wkuhh ohyhov ri edujdlqlqj1 Jhqhudo
lvvxhv/ lqfoxglqj lqfrph srolf|/ shqvlrq ehqhwv dqg uxohv ri wkh jdph duh
47
edujdlqhg dw wkh qdwlrqdo ohyho dqg lqyroyh wkh jryhuqphqw/ wkh uhsuhvhqwd0
wlyhv ri wkh hpsor|hu qdwlrqdo dvvrfldwlrq dqg wkh ohdghuv ri wkh wkuhh pdmru
qdwlrqdo xqlrq ihghudwlrqv1 Froohfwlyh edujdlqlqj wdnhv sodfh dw wkh vhfwruldo
ohyho dqg lqyroyhv wkh vhfwruldo xqlrq dqg hpsor|hu ihghudwlrqv/ zlwk vrph
ghjuhh ri jryhuqphqw duelwudwlrq1 Dw wklv vwdjh wkh edujdlq lv derxw vhfwruldo
zdjh rruv/ wkdw kdyh zlgh fryhudjh lq wkh lqgxvwu|1 Wkh qdo vwdjh lv orfdo
edujdlqlqj/ wkdw lqyroyhv d vlqjoh up dqg lv derxw orfdo zdjh suhpld ryhu
wkh vhfwruldo rru48 1
Zkloh wkh iruphu wzr ohyhov duh vkduhg e| doo Lwdoldq uhjlrqv/ uhjlrqdo
glhuhqfhv fdq rffxu lq wkh qdo vwdjh ehfdxvh wkh uhodwlyh lpsruwdqfh ri
zdjh guliw/ ghqhg dv wkh zdjh lqfuhdvh qhjrwldwhg dw wkh orfdo ohyho deryh
wkh lqgxvwuldo wdul zdjh/ ydulhv vljqlfdqwo| dfurvv uhjlrqv49 1 Wkhuh duh dw
ohdvw wzr slhfhv ri hylghqfh lq vxssruw ri wklv yduldwlrq1 Iluvw/ wkh shufhqwdjh
ri hpsor|hhv lq wkh lqgxvwuldo vhfwru lqyroyhg lq orfdo zdjh vhwwohphqwv gxulqj
wkh |hduv 4<<809 zdv kljkhu wkdq 73( lq wkh Qruwk dqg forvh wr 48( lq wkh
Vrxwk +Urvvl dqg Vhvwlwr +5333,,1 Vhfrqg/ Fruqhr dqg Oxflirud +4<<:, xvh
gdwd iurp 6333 Lwdoldq hvwdeolvkphqwv wr hvwlpdwh d surelw prgho ri wkh
suredelolw| wkdw orfdo edujdlqlqj wdnhv sodfh1 Wkh| qg wkdw wklv suredelolw|
lv vljqlfdqwo| orzhu lq wkh Vrxwkhuq uhjlrqv1 Ryhudoo/ wklv hylghqfh vxjjhvwv
wkdw orfdo edujdlqlqj lv pruh zlghvsuhdg lq wkh Qruwkhuq uhjlrqv wkdq lq wkh
uhvw ri wkh frxqwu|1
Dqrwkhu oderu pdunhw lqvwlwxwlrq wkdw fdq jhqhudwh uhjlrqdo yduldwlrq lq
wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri jurvv zdjhv wr oderu wd{hv lv wkh uhodwlyh lpsruwdqfh ri wkh
lqirupdo oderu pdunhw1 Dv glvfxvvhg ehorz/ wkh dydlodeoh hpslulfdo hylghqfh
vkrzv wkdw lqirupdo oderu duudqjhphqwv duh vljqlfdqwo| pruh zlghvsuhdg lq
wkh Vrxwk1
Lq wkh uhvw ri wkh vhfwlrq/ zh glvfxvv wkh lpsolfdwlrqv rq uhjlrqdo zdjh
vhwwlqj ri kdylqj zdjh guliw +vxe 0 vhfwlrq 714, dqg dq lqirupdo vhfwru +vxe 0
vhfwlrq 715,1 Qh{w/ zh suhvhqw hpslulfdo hylghqfh rq wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq
uhjlrqdo jurvv zdjhv dqg oderu wd{hv +vxe 0 vhfwlrq 716,1
714
Uhjlrqdo Zdjh Guliw
Zh vwduw e| suhvhqwlqj d vlpsoh prgho ri wkh zdjh guliw1 Frqvlghu d up
dqg d orfdo xqlrq wkdw edujdlq ryhu wkh orfdo zdjh e| wdnlqj wkh wdul zdjh/
ghwhuplqhg dw wkh fhqwudo ru lqgxvwuldo ohyho/ dv jlyhq1 Zh lqwurgxfh wkh
iroorzlqj qrwdwlrq
_
_ `& ' `&
A `&
*' @ wkh uhdo wdnh krph sd| lq up n/ vhfwru
48
49
Rqh vkrxog dovr dgg sd| lqfuhdvhv ghflghg xqlodwhudoo| e| wkh hpsor|hu +phulw sd|,1
Vhh Ruglqh +4<<9,, iru d ghwdlohg glvfxvvlrq ri zdjh guliw lq Lwdo|1
48
m dqg uhjlrq l>
_
`&
' wkh uhdo zdjh edujdlqhg dw wkh orfdo ohyho lq up n/ vhfwru m dqg
uhjlrq l>
`S ' wkh wdul zdjh lq vhfwru m>
A E ' wkh lqfrph wd{ ixqfwlrq>
' ' wkh frqvxpswlrq sulfh lqgh{ lq uhjlrq l>
|e ' wkh sd|uroo wd{ udwh lq vhfwru m dqg uhjlrq l>
' wkh ryhudoo oderu wd{ zhgjh lq vhfwru m dqg uhjlrq l1
Wkh up & surgxfhv zlwk wkh iroorzlqj frqvwdqw uhwxuqv wr vfdoh Free
Grxjodv whfkqrorj|
34
t& ' u4& g&
+;,
zkhuh t lv uhdo ydoxh dgghg/ u lv oderu dqg g lv fdslwdo1 E| rshudwlqj lq d
prqrsrolvwlf hqylurqphqw ã od Gl{lw dqg Vwljolw}/ wkh up vhoov rxwsxw dorqj
wkh iroorzlqj ghpdqg ixqfwlrq
3w
&
t& ' +<,
zkhuh & lv wkh sulfh ri up &*v jrrg lq vhfwru dqg uhjlrq / zkloh lv wkh fruuhvsrqglqj dyhudjh sulfh1 Surw pd{lpl}dwlrq |lhogv wkh svhxgr
oderu ghpdqg
$ 43 
3 4 # _
`&

u& ' E 4
E n |e +43,
w
&
Wkh orfdo xqlrq edujdlqv ryhu wkh orfdo zdjh zlwk wkh up/ e| wdnlqj
+43, lqwr dffrxqw1 Wkh xqlrq fduhv rqo| derxw wkh orfdo zdjh dqg wu| wr
pd{lpl}hv wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq wklv zdjh dqg wkh wdul zdjh1 Suhihuhqfhv
duh jlyhq e|
L& ' `& `S
+44,
Dvvxph iru vlpsolflw| wkdw lqfrph wd{hv duh olqhdu lq lqfrph +A E` _ ' |` _ /
'
zkhuh | lv wkh lqfrph wd{ udwh,1 Wkhq wkh ryhudoo zhgjh lv / zkhuh
En|
' E3|e
lv wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh1 Orfdo zdjh vhwwlqj pd{lpl}hv wkh
iroorzlqj Qdvk ixqfwlrq
q
4@ L&& &
`&
49
+45,
zkhuh q & lv wkh uhodwlyh edujdlqlqj srzhu ri wkh xqlrq dqg zh dvvxph iru
vlpsolflw| wkdw wkh idooedfnv duh }hur1
Wkh edujdlqhg qhw uhdo zdjh wxuqv rxw wr eh
`& ' d n b& o3 `S
+46,
zkhuh
b& ' 4Ew 
dw E 4 n 4o q &
Lq wklv vlpsoh vhwxs/ fkdqjhv lq wkh wd{ zhgjh dhfw wkh orfdo zdjh rqo|
li wkh| dhfw wkh wdul zdjh `S 1 Dq dgglwlrqdo fkdqqho ri lq xhqfh fdq eh
lqwurgxfhg e| gursslqj wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw wkh whfkqrorj| lv Free Grxjodv1
Zkhq wkh surgxfwlrq whfkqrorj| lv FHV/ lw fdq eh vkrzq wkdw b lv d ixqfwlrq
ri wkh jurvv zdjh hodvwlflw| ri surwv dqg hpsor|phqw1 Frpsduhg wr wkh
vlpsoh Free Grxjodv fdvh/ erwk hodvwlflwlhv duh qrw frqvwdqw dqg ghshqg rq
wkh wd{ zhgjh4: 1 Lq wkh uhvw ri wkh sdshu/ zh fdswxuh wklv pruh jhqhudo fdvh
e| dvvxplqj b& ' bE Lqgxvwuldo zdjhv lq hdfk uhjlrq duh rewdlqhg dv zhljkwhg dyhudjhv ri wkh
zdjhv ri upv ehorqjlqj wr wkh vdph lqgxvwu|1 Ohw j eh wkh sursruwlrq ri
upv lq uhjlrq dqg lqgxvwu| wkdw kdyh orfdo edujdlqlqj1 Wklv sursruwlrq
fdq ydu| zlwk wkh wd{ zhgjh zkhq wkh sduwlhv kdyh dq lqfhqwlyh wr dgmxvw wkh
qhw uhdo zdjh wr fkdqjhv lq oderu wd{hv wkdw rffxu diwhu wkh wdul zdjh kdv
ehhq vhw1 Lq lpsolflw irup/ wklv lv htxlydohqw wr dvvxplqj j ' jE 1 Wkh
lqfhqwlyh wr edujdlq orfdoo| lv vwurqjhu zkhq wkh frqwudfw ohqjwk ri vhfwruldo
4:
Lq wkh fdvh ri d FHV/ zh kdyh
nlm
@
%
. %nlm
Onlm
nlm
zlwk
%
4 4 4 4 4 Onlm Z %Onlm @ 4 4
\nlm nlm lm
&
dqg
%nlm
@
O\
4 O\
nlm
nlm
Znlm lm
nlm
nlm
Znlm lm
zkhuh 4.4 lv wkh hodvwlflw| ri vxevwlwxwlrq/ %O dqg % duh wkh jurvv zdjh hodvwlflwlhv ri
surwv dqg hpsor|phqw1
4:
frqwudfwv lv vljqlfdqw/ dv lw kdsshqv lq Lwdo|/ zkhuh frqwudfwv duh qhjrwldwhg
hyhu| 6 ru 7 |hduv/ dqg wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh fdq fkdqjh ehwzhhq vhwwohphqwv1
Zlwk wkh vlpsoli|lqj frqglwlrq wkdw wkh sdudphwhuv dvvrfldwhg wr orfdo
edujdlqlqj/ wr wkh whfkqrorj| dqg wr surgxfw ghpdqg gr qrw ydu| dprqj
wkh upv ehorqjlqj wr wkh vdph uhjlrq dqg vhfwru/ qhw uhdo zdjhv lq uhjlrq dqg lqgxvwu| duh jlyhq e|
jE ` '
n d jE o `S
+47,
d n b E o
Wkhuhiruh/ lq dq| lqgxvwu| dqg uhjlrq/ wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri wkh qhw uhdo zdjh
wr fkdqjhv lq wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh ghshqgv rq wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri wkh wdul
zdjh/ d frpprq lqgxvwu| hhfw/ rq wkh fkdqjh lq wkh sursruwlrq ri upv
wkdw edujdlq orfdoo| dqg rq wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri wkh orfdo zdjh wr wd{ fkdqjhv1
Vlqfh wkh odwwhu wzr hhfwv fdq ydu| dfurvv uhjlrqv zlwklq wkh vdph lqgxvwu|/
wkh suhvhqfh ri zdjh guliw fdq lqwurgxfh uhjlrqdo yduldwlrq lq wkh vhqvlwlylw|
ri uhjlrqdo zdjhv wr uhjlrqdo oderu wd{hv1
715
Wkh Lqirupdo Oderu Pdunhw
Dffruglqj wr Zlooldpv dqg Zlqghedqn +4<<;,/ wkh whup lqirupdo hpsor|0
phqw uhihuv wr wkh sdlg surgxfwlrq dqg vdoh ri jrrgv dqg vhuylfhv wkdw duh
xquhjlvwhuhg e|/ ru klgghq iurp/ wkh vwdwh iru wd{/ vrfldo vhfxulw| dqg2ru
oderxu odz sxusrvhv/ exw zklfk duh ohjdo lq doo rwkhu uhvshfwv1 Dv vxfk/ lqiru0
pdo hpsor|phqw lv frpsrvhg ri wkuhh w|shv ri dfwlylw|= hydvlrq ri erwk gluhfw
+l1h1 lqfrph wd{, dqg lqgluhfw +h1j1 YDW/ h{flvh gxwlhv, wd{hv> vrfldo vhfxulw|
iudxg zkhuh wkh r!fldoo| xqhpsor|hg duh zrunlqj zklovw fodlplqj ehqhw>
dqg dyrlgdqfh ri oderu ohjlvodwlrq/ vxfk dv hpsor|huv lqvxudqfh frqwulex0
wlrqv/ plqlpxp zdjh djuhhphqwv ru fhuwdlq vdihw| dqg rwkhu vwdqgdugv lq
wkh zrunsodfh/ vxfk dv wkurxjk klulqj oderu r0wkh0errnv ru vxe0frqwudfwlqj
zrun wr vpdoo upv1
Dq lqirupdo ru klgghq oderu pdunhw rshudwlqj vlgh e| vlgh wr wkh uhjxodu
oderu pdunhw lv d ihdwxuh vkduhg e| prvw ghyhorshg hfrqrplhv1 Doprvw e|
ghqlwlrq/ wkh klgghq oderu pdunhw lv gl!fxow wr phdvxuh1 Wkh Lwdoldq Vwd0
wlvwlfdo R!fh +LVWDW, phdvxuhv klgghq hpsor|phqw dqg hduqlqjv e| frp0
elqlqj lqirupdwlrq iurp wkh Oderu Irufh Vxuyh|/ d krxvhkrog vxuyh|/ zlwk
lqirupdwlrq surylghg e| upv/ xvhg wr frpsloh wkh qdwlrqdo dffrxqwv +vhh
LVWDW +4<<;,,1 Dv d uhvxow ri wklv phdvxuhphqw hruw/ uhjlrqdo jurvv zdjhv
lqfoxgh erwk hduqlqjv dqg hpsor|phqw lq wkh uhjxodu vhfwru dqg dq hvwlpdwh
ri hduqlqjv dqg hpsor|phqw lq wkh lqirupdo hfrqrp|1
Lpsruwdqwo|/ wkh hvwlpdwhg vkduh ri lqirupdo hpsor|phqw ryhu wrwdo hp0
sor|phqw lv vljqlfdqwo| kljkhu lq Vrxwkhuq Lwdo|1 Dffruglqj wr uhfhqw hvwl0
4;
pdwhv surgxfhg e| LVWDW +4<<;e,/ gxulqj wkh |hduv 4<;80<8 wklv vkduh zdv
rq dyhudjh htxdo wr HI lq Vrxwkhuq uhjlrqv/ doprvw wzlfh dv pxfk dv wkh
vkduh lq wkh Qruwkhuq dqg Fhqwudo uhjlrqv +..I,1
Uhjlrqdo glhuhqfhv lq wkh uhodwlyh lpsruwdqfh ri wkh lqirupdo vhfwru lq0
gxfh dgglwlrqdo yduldwlrq lq wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri uhjlrqdo jurvv zdjhv wr fkdqjhv
lq oderu wd{hv1 Wr vhh zk|/ ghqh
E Re ' @e Ke n Se u
+48,
dv wkh zdjh vhwwlqj htxdwlrq lq wkh uhjxodu oderu pdunhw ri lqgxvwu| m dqg
uhjlrq l/ d vlpsolhg yhuvlrq ri +5,/ dqg
E Rr ' @r Kr +49,
dv wkh fruuhvsrqglqj htxdwlrq iru wkh lqirupdo oderu pdunhw1 Zh kdyh
gursshg erwk K dqg E+ e iurp +5, iru wkh vdnh ri vlpsolflw| dqg kdyh
dvvxphg wkdw wkh jurvv zdjh lv srvlwlyho| dhfwhg e| oderu wd{hv rqo| lq wkh
uhjxodu vhfwru1 Wklv fdq rffxu hlwkhu ehfdxvh wkh jurvv wdul zdjh ydulhv zlwk
oderu wd{hv +uhdo zdjh uhvlvwdqfh, ru ehfdxvh ri wkh zdjh guliw1 Lq wkh lqiru0
pdo vhfwru/ e| ghqlwlrq/ wkhuh lv qr qhhg wr vkliw kljkhu wd{hv rqwr kljkhu
jurvv zdjhv/ ehfdxvh oderu wd{hv duh qrw sdlg1 Wkhuhiruh/ wkh sdudphwhu S lv
htxdo wr }hur lq +49,1 Ohwwlqj 5 eh wkh sursruwlrq ri upv lq wkh lqirupdo
oderu pdunhw/ wkh dyhudjh jurvv zdjh lq lqgxvwu| m dqg uhjlrq l lv
E R ' E 5 E Re n 5 E Rr '
d@e 5 E@e @r o dKe n 5 EKr Ke o n dSe E 5 o +4:,
Wklv h{suhvvlrq vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri wkh jurvv zdjh wr fkdqjhv
lq oderu wd{hv fdq ydu| dfurvv uhjlrqv hyhq zkhq Se ' Se +qr uhjlrqdo glhu0
hqfh lq wkh lpsruwdqfh ri wkh zdjh guliw, li wkhuh duh uhjlrqdo glhuhqfhv lq
wkh uhodwlyh lpsruwdqfh ri wkh lqirupdo vhfwru1 Fhwhulv sdulexv/ jurvv zdjhv
lq uhjlrqv zkhuh wkh lqirupdo vhfwru lv pruh lpsruwdqw duh ohvv vhqvlwlyh wr
fkdqjhv lq wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh1
716
Wkh Hpslulfdo Hylghqfh
D nh| lpsolfdwlrq ri kdylqj zdjh guliw dqg dq lqirupdo vhfwru wkdw duh qrw
htxdoo| glvwulexwhg ryhu wkh frxqwu| lv wkdw wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq uhjlrqdo
zdjhv dqg oderu wd{hv fdq ydu| hyhq lq wkh suhvhqfh ri qdwlrqdo frqwudfwv
wkdw vhw wkh wdul zdjh lq d fhqwudol}hg zd| dqg kdyh zlgh fryhudjh1
4<
Zh vwxg| zkhwkhu jurvv lqgxvwuldo uhdo zdjhv glhu dfurvv uhjlrqv lq wkhlu
vhqvlwlylw| wr fkdqjhv lq oderu wd{hv e| xvlqj gdwd iru < lqgxvwulhv lq wkh sul0
ydwh vhfwru iru wkh shulrg 4<;30<8 dqg e| srrolqj uhjlrqdo gdwd iru hdfk lq0
gxvwu|4; 1 Zh xvh lqgxvwuldo gdwd ehfdxvh wkh wdul zdjh `S lq Lwdo| lv vhw e|
froohfwlyh edujdlqlqj dw wkh lqgxvwuldo ohyho1 Iru hdfk lqgxvwu|/ zh dgrsw wkh
iroorzlqj vwudwhj|= 4, zh vwduw iurp dq HFP vshflfdwlrq dqg lqfoxgh dprqj
wkh uhjuhvvruv wkdw fkdudfwhul}h wkh orqj uxq uhodwlrqvkls u| c R6| c l | c |
dqg uhdo rxwsxw shu khdg E+ e| ( 5, zh srro doo uhjlrqv dqg lqwhudfw wkh
uhjuhvvruv zlwk wkh gxpp| 7 +4 iru Vrxwkhuq uhjlrqv,> 6, zh dvvxph frq0
whpsrudqhrxv fruuhodwlrq dprqj uhjlrqdo huuruv dqg hvwlpdwh e| IJOV> 7,
zh vlpsoli| vhtxhqwldoo| e| gursslqj rqh e| rqh wkh uhjuhvvruv zlwk dq lq0
vljqlfdqw frh!flhqw +s0ydoxh kljkhu wkdq 3143,1
Wkh uhvxowv ri wkh qdo vshflfdwlrq duh xvhg wr frpsxwh iru hdfk lqgxvwu|
dqg uhjlrq wkh orqj uxq hodvwlflw| ri wkh uhdo jurvv zdjh wr fkdqjhv lq oderu
wd{hv1 Wkhvh hodvwlflwlhv duh vkrzq lq Wdeoh 91 Lq wkh odvw froxpq ri wkh wdeoh
zh lqvhuw dq dvwhulvn zkhq wkhuh lv d vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqw glhuhqfh lq wkh
hodvwlflwlhv dfurvv wkh wzr jurxsv ri uhjlrqv1 Wkh dyhudjh hodvwlflw| lq wkh
Qruwk dqg wkh Vrxwk lv frpsxwhg e| xvlqj wkh uhodwlyh hpsor|phqw vkduhv
dv zhljkwv1
Wkh wdeoh vkrzv d qxpehu ri uhvxowv= uvw/ wkhuh duh vljqlfdqw uhjlrqdo
glhuhqfhv zlwklq vhfwruv lq wkh orqj uxq uhvsrqvlyhqhvv ri uhdo zdjhv wr
fkdqjhv lq oderu wd{hv1 Zlwk wkh h{fhswlrq ri wkh wh{wlohv lqgxvwu|/ zkhuh lw
lv +qrw vljqlfdqwo|, orzhu/ wklv uhvsrqvlyhqhvv lv dv kljk lq wkh Qruwk dv lq
wkh Vrxwk iru rwkhu pdqxidfwxulqj/ sulydwh vhuylfhv dqg fkhplfdov dqg kljkhu
lq wkh Qruwk iru wkh uhpdlqlqj vhfwruv1 Vhfrqg/ wkh dyhudjh uhvsrqvlyhqhvv
ri zdjhv/ zhljkwhg e| wkh uhodwlyh hpsor|phqw vkduh/ lv orzhu lq wkh Vrxwk
wkdq lq wkh Qruwk1 Wklug/ sxuh vhfwruldo frpsrvlwlrq hhfwv h{sodlq rqo|
sduw ri wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh Qruwk dqg wkh Vrxwk= li zh dsso| wr wkh
Vrxwkhuq glvwulexwlrq ri hpsor|phqw wkh hodvwlflwlhv irxqg lq wkh Qruwkhuq
uhjlrqv/ wkh dyhudjh hodvwlflw| lv 3143;/ vljqlfdqwo| deryh wkh hhfwlyh ydoxh
+31348,1 Wkhuhiruh/ wkhuh lv d jhqxlqh uhjlrqdo yduldwlrq wkdw ruljlqdwhv zlwklq
lqgxvwuldo vhfwruv1 Odvw exw qrw ohdvw/ wkh hodvwlflw| ri jurvv zdjhv wr oderu
wd{hv lv qhjdwlyh lq wzr Vrxwkhuq vhfwruv/ djulfxowxuh dqg exloglqj/ zkhuh wkh
frpshwlwlrq zlwk wkh klgghq hpsor|phqw vhfwru lv suredeo| vwurqjhvw1
Vlqfh prvw ri rxu hpslulfdo qglqjv lq wkh uhvw ri wkh sdshu duh edvhg
rq gdwd fryhulqj wkh shulrg 4<98 wr 4<<8/ zh frpsohphqw wkhvh uhvxowv e|
dovr hvwlpdwlqj djjuhjdwh uhjlrqdo zdjh htxdwlrqv ryhu wklv orqjhu lqwhuydo1
Lq wkhvh hvwlpdwhv zh srro doo uhjlrqv dqg lqwhudfw wkh h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv
zlwk wkh gxpp| 71 Rxu qglqjv frqup wkdw wkh hodvwlflw| ri jurvv zdjhv
4;
Zh xvh d vkruwhu shulrg ehfdxvh ri gdwd dydlodelolw|1
53
Wdeoh 9= Orqj Uxq Hodvwlflwlhv ri Uhdo Jurvv Zdjhv wr Fkdqjhv lq Oderu
Wd{hv1 IJOV Hvwlpdwhv1 Ghshqghqw Yduldeoh= { E R1 Vdpsoh shulrg=
4<;3 wr 4<<81
Vhfwru
Qruwk
Vrxwk
Whvw
Djulfxowxuh
3
03158; +3136,
Fkhplfdov
3
3
Hqjlqhhulqj=Pdfklqhu|
31583 +3133, 3153< +3133,
Hqjlqhhulqj= Yhklfohv
31:9: +3133, 318:< +3133,
Irrgvwxv
315;8 +3133,
3
Wh{wlohv
315:7 +3134, 3179; +3133,
Rwkhu Pdqxidfwxulqj
31959 +3133, 31959 +3133,
Exloglqj
3
03164: +3139,
Sulydwh Vhuylfhv
3
3
Dyhudjh Hodvwlflw|
314;7
31348
Il{hg Frh!flhqwv Dyhudjh
0
3143;
Qrwh= S0ydoxhv zlwklq sduhqwkhvhv1 Zh xvh d }hur zkhqhyhu wkh
hvwlpdwhg hodvwlflw| lv qrw vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw iurp }hur dw wkh
43( ohyho ri frqghqfh1 Uhdo zdjhv duh gh dwhg e| wkh uhjlrqdo
frqvxphu sulfh gh dwru1
wr oderu wd{hv lv vljqlfdqwo| kljkhu lq wkh Qruwk wkdq lq wkh Vrxwk +fbH
yhuvxv f2D,4< 1
8
D vlpsoh dffrxqwlqj h{huflvh
Htxdwlrq +:, ghfrpsrvhv wkh hodvwlflw| ri sulydwh hpsor|phqw wr oderu wd{hv
lqwr wkh wd{ zhgjh hodvwlflw| ri jurvv zdjhv dqg dq dgglwlrqdo frpsrqhqw/
wkdw uh hfwv wkh gluhfw dqg lqgluhfw hpsor|phqw hhfwv ri zdjh fkdqjhv1 Lq
rughu wr frpsxwh wkh frqwulexwlrq ri hlwkhu frpsrqhqw/ zh qhhg wr hvwlpdwh
wkh hodvwlflw| ri wkh sulydwh hpsor|phqw wr oderu irufh udwlr wr fkdqjhv lq
jurvv zdjhv1 Iru wklv sxusrvh/ zh vshfli| wkh hpsor|phqw uhodwlrqvkls dv
iroorzv
?| ' ? d| R| c o| c R6| c E+ ,s | o
+4;,
zkhuh ? ' e ,s c ,s lv wkh orj ri wkh oderu irufh/ dqg zh hvwlpdwh +4;, e|
srrolqj doo uhjlrqv diwhu lqfoxglqj wkh lqwhudfwlrqv ri doo uljkw kdqg vlgh ydul0
Wkhvh uhvxowv eurdgo| frqup wkh uhvxowv lq Euxqhoor hw do +5334e,1 Lq wkdw sdshu/ zh
xvh djjuhjdwh uhjlrqdo gdwd dqg qg hylghqfh wkdw uhdo zdjh uhvlvwdqfh lv kljkhu lq wkh
Qruwk wkdq lq wkh Vrxwk1
4<
54
Wdeoh := Wkh +orj, hpsor|phqw 2 oderu irufh ixqfwlrq1 Ghshqghqw yduldeoh=
{?| 1 Shulrg= 4<9804<<81
Frh!flhqw S0ydoxh
{E R3
31435
3133
7 {E R3
03139:
3143
{E+ ,s 3
3155;
3133
0314:8
3133
7 {E+ ,s 3
?3
03139;
3133
E R3
031356
3135
7 o3
031334
3133
E+ ,s3
3143<
3133
2
31856
JKr
7<9
deohv zlwk wkh gxpp| 7 Rqfh djdlq/ wkh hvwlpdwlrq phwkrg lv IJOV/ dqg
zh doorz iru frqwhpsrudqhrxv fruuhodwlrq dqg uvw rughu vhuldo fruuhodwlrq
lq wkh uhjlrqdo huuruv1 Diwhu vhtxhqwldoo| vlpsoli|lqj wkh ruljlqdo prgho e|
gursslqj yduldeohv wkdw dwwudfw d frh!flhqw qrw vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw iurp
}hur do wkh 43( ohyho ri frqghqfh/ zh rewdlq wkh uhvxowv lq Wdeoh :1
Wkh lpsolhg orqj uxq hodvwlflwlhv ri hpsor|phqw erwk wr jurvv zdjhv dqg wr
uhjlrqdo uhdo rxwsxw gr qrw vljqlfdqwo| glhu dfurvv jurxsv ri uhjlrqv dqg duh
htxdo uhvshfwlyho| wr f2 +S0ydoxh ' 31347, dqg DHe +S0ydoxh ' 31335,1
Ohw uhjlrqdo uhdo ydoxh dgghg lq wkh sulydwh vhfwru eh d frqvwdqw uhwxuqv wr
vfdoh Free Grxjodv ixqfwlrq ri sulydwh hpsor|phqw/ vhoi0hpsor|phqw dqg
wkh fdslwdo vwrfn/ doo phdvxuhg dv vkduhv ri wkh uhjlrqdo oderu irufh1 Lq wkh
orqj uxq/ wkh Free Grxjodv sdudphwhuv duh htxdo wr wkh idfwru vkduhv dqg
zh fdq uh0zulwh +:, dv
# ? E k
Y?
Y? Y
Y? Y&
Y? Y?@
'
n E k n Y+
Y Y Y+ Y Y+ Y +4<,
zkhuh & lv wkh orj fdslwdo vwrfn wr oderu irufh udwlr dqg k dqg duh wkh
idfwru vkduhv1 Wdeoh ; uhsruwv/ iru hdfk duhd/ wkh hvwlpdwhg ydoxhv ri hdfk
frpsrqhqw ri +4<,53 1 Lq wkh wdeoh/ wkh frpsrqhqw dvvrfldwhg wr wkh fdslwdo
vwrfn lv frpsxwhg dv wkh uhvlgxdo whup1
Lw lv fohdu iurp wkh wdeoh wkdw wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri uhjlrqdo zdjhv wr fkdqjhv
lq oderu wd{hv dffrxqwv gluhfwo| iru rqo| sduw ri wkh wd{ zhgjh hodvwlflw| ri
sulydwh hpsor|phqw +dqg xqhpsor|phqw,1 Fkdqjhv lq wkh oderu wd{ zhgjh
Wkh idfwru vkduh ri vhoi0hpsor|phqw lv frpsxwhg e| dvvljqlqj wr vhoi0hpsor|hg oderu
wkh dyhudjh zdjh lq wkh sulydwh vhfwru1
53
55
Wdeoh ;= Hvwlpdwhg frpsrqhqwv ri +4<,
Qruwk Vrxwk
#?
03187: 031633
k
3174< 31688
314<; 3154<
Y?
418;7 418;7
Y+
Y
316<; 31568
Y Y?@
315;;
3
Y Y?
031665 031665
Y
Y&
031577 031466
Y Y?
# ? E k Y+ 0314<5 031468
Y? Y
031465 0313:;
Y Y Y? Y?@
E k Y+ Y 313;; 31333
Y? Y&
Y+ Y 03147; 03138:
dhfw uhjlrqdo xqhpsor|phqw dovr ehfdxvh ri wkh lpsdfw wkh| kdyh rq vhoi0
hpsor|phqw dqg wkh fdslwdo vwrfn lq wkh sulydwh vhfwru1 Wkh hfrqrplf phfk0
dqlvp wkdw olqnv oderu wd{hv wr wkh fdslwdo vwrfn lv ghvfulehg e| Dohvlqd hw do
+4<<<e, dqg fdq eh vxppdul}hg dv iroorzv= dq lqfuhdvh lq oderu wd{hv wkdw
lv qrw ixoo| vkliwhg lqwr orzhu qhw zdjhv udlvhv oderu frvwv> kljkhu frvwv uh0
gxfh +pdujlqdo, surwv> orzhu surwv ohdg wr d uhgxfwlrq ri lqyhvwphqw dqg
wr d orzhu fdslwdo vwrfn1 Lq wkh Qruwk ri wkh frxqwu|/ wklv uhgxfwlrq pxvw
eh vwurqj hqrxjk wr frpshqvdwh iru wkh srvlwlyh hhfw ri fkdqjhv lq oderu
wd{dwlrq rq wkh vhoi0hpsor|phqw wr oderu irufh udwlr1
9
Lpsolfdwlrqv dqg Frqfoxvlrqv
Uhfhqw vwxglhv ri wkh Hxurshdq xqhpsor|phqw sureohp kdyh hpskdvl}hg
wkh lpsruwdqfh ri qdwlrqdo lqvwlwxwlrqv1 \hw lq d qxpehu ri frxqwulhv wkh nh|
dvshfw ri kljk dqg ulvlqj xqhpsor|phqw lq wkh 4<;3v dqg 4<<3v kdv ehhq wkh
lqfuhdvhg uhjlrqdo glvshuvlrq ri xqhpsor|phqw udwhv1 E| orrnlqj dw uhjlrqdo
oderu pdunhw gdwd zlwklq d vlqjoh frxqwu|/ Lwdo|/ zh kdyh ehhq deoh wr owhu
rxw qdwlrqdo lqvwlwxwlrqv/ wkdw e| ghqlwlrq ydu| dprqj frxqwulhv/ qrw dprqj
uhjlrqv/ dqg wr irfxv rq wkh uroh ri uhjlrqdo lqvwlwxwlrqv1
Zh kdyh vkrzq wkdw/ ghvslwh vlplodu qdwlrqdo oderu pdunhw lqvwlwxwlrqv/
wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq xqhpsor|phqw dqg oderu wd{hv lq Lwdo| ydulhv vlj0
qlfdqwo| dfurvv jurxsv ri uhjlrqv dqg lv vwurqjhu lq wkh kljko| lqgxvwuldol}hg
Qruwk wkdq lq wkh ohvv ghyhorshg Vrxwk1 Wklv uhvxow lv gulyhq e| wkh kljkhu
56
vhqvlwlylw| ri uhjlrqdo zdjhv wr fkdqjhv lq oderu wd{hv lq wkh Qruwk1 Zh kdyh
lghqwlhg wzr vrxufhv ri lqvwlwxwlrqdo yduldwlrq lq uhjlrqdo oderu pdunhwv wkdw
dhfw uhjlrqdo zdjhv/ wkh zdjh guliw dqg wkh lqirupdo hfrqrp|1
Wklv qglqj kdv wzr lqwhuhvwlqj srolf| lpsolfdwlrqv1 Iluvw/ lw lv riwhq dg0
yrfdwhg wkdw d kljkhu ghfhqwudol}dwlrq ri wkh zdjh edujdlq frxog khos dph0
olrudwlqj wkh Hxurshdq xqhpsor|phqw sureohp1 Zkhq ghfhqwudol}dwlrq lv
rewdlqhg e| dgglqj orfdo wr fhqwudo edujdlqlqj +zdjh guliw,/ lw fdq ohdg wr
dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri jurvv uhdo zdjhv wr fkdqjhv lq oderu wd{hv1
Lq vxfk flufxpvwdqfhv/ d wd{ fxw ehfrphv pruh hhfwlyh lq uhgxflqj xqhp0
sor|phqw1 Vhfrqg/ srolflhv wkdw lqfhqwlydwh zrunhuv dqg upv wr suhihu wkh
uhjxodu wr wkh klgghq hfrqrp| kdyh wkh vlgh hhfw ri lqfuhdvlqj wkh vhqvlwlylw|
ri xqhpsor|phqw wr fkdqjhv lq oderu wd{hv1 Dv lq wkh suhylrxv fdvh/ d oderu
wd{ fxw ehfrphv pruh hhfwlyh1 Wkhuhiruh/ wkh h!fdf| ri wd{ fxwv wr frp0
edw kljk xqhpsor|phqw fdq eh hqkdqfhg e| uhgxflqj wkh uhodwlyh vl}h ri wkh
klgghq vhfwru dqg2ru e| lqfuhdvlqj wkh ghfhqwudol}dwlrq ri zdjh edujdlqlqj
lqvwlwxwlrqv1
Uhjlrqdo zdjh vhwwlqj dhfwv hpsor|phqw +dqg xqhpsor|phqw, erwk gl0
uhfwo| dqg lqgluhfwo|1 Xvlqj d vlpsoh dffrxqwlqj h{huflvh/ zh kdyh dovr vkrzq
wkdw dq lpsruwdqw uroh lq h{sodlqlqj wkh revhuyhg uhjlrqdo glhuhqfhv lq wkh
uhvsrqvlyhqhvv ri sulydwh hpsor|phqw +dqg xqhpsor|phqw, wr fkdqjhv lq od0
eru wd{hv lv sod|hg e| wkh dgmxvwphqw ri wkh uhjlrqdo fdslwdo vwrfn lq wkh
sulydwh vhfwru iroorzlqj wkhvh fkdqjhv1
Rxu uhvxowv vxjjhvw wkdw/ wr h{sodlq wkh uhjlrqdo glvshuvlrq lq wkh xqhp0
sor|phqw udwh/ shukdsv wkh prvw lpsruwdqw ihdwxuh ri uhfhqw xqhpsor|phqw
lq Lwdo| +dqg lq rwkhu frqwlqhqwdo Hxurshdq frxqwulhv,/ rqh qhhgv wr jr eh0
|rqg qdwlrqdo lqvwlwxwlrqv dqg orrn dw uhjlrqdo lqvwlwxwlrqv1 Zh kdyh dovr
frquphg uhfhqw qglqjv wkdw oderu wd{hv pdwwhu iru xqhpsor|phqw/ dqg zh
kdyh dgghg wr wkh h{lvwlqj hylghqfh wkh idfw wkdw lq Lwdo| wkh| vhhp wr pdwwhu
prvw zkhuh xqhpsor|phqw lv ohvv ri d sureohp1
Uhihuhqfhv
^4` Dohvlqd/ D1/ Gdqqlqjhu/ V1 dqg Urvwdjqr/ P1/ +4<<<, Uhglvwulexwlrq
wkurxjk Sxeolf Hpsor|phqw= wkh Fdvh ri Lwdo|/ QEHU Zrunlqj sdshu
:6;:/ Fdpeulgjh PD1
^5` Dohvlqd/ D1/ Dugdjqd/ V1/ Shurwwl/ U1 dqg Vfkldqwduhool/ I1/ +4<<<e,/
Ilvfdo Srolf|/ Surwv dqg Lqyhvwphqw/ QEHU Zrunlqj Sdshu :53:1
^6` Ehqwrolod/ V1/ dqg Mlphqr/ M1/ +4<<;,/ Uhjlrqdo Xqhpsor|phqw Shuvlv0
whqfh +Vsdlq 4<:90<7,/ Oderxu Hfrqrplfv/ 8/ 4/ 580851
57
^7` Ehqwrolod/ V1 dqg Lfklqr/ D1/ +4<<;,/ Krz sdlqixo lv Xqhpsor|phqwB/
HXL Zrunlqj sdshu/ Ioruhqfh1
^8` Eodqfkdug/ R1/ +4<<;,/ Wkh Phglxp Uxq/ Eurrnlqjv Sdshuv rq Hfr0
qrplf Dfwlylw|/ 51
^9` Eodqfkdug/ R1 dqg Zroihuv/ M1/ +5333,/ Wkh Uroh ri Vkrfnv dqg Lqvwlwx0
wlrqv lq wkh Ulvh ri Hxurshdq Xqhpsor|phqw= Wkh Djjuhjdwh Hylghqfh/
Wkh Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo1
^:` Errwk/ D1/ +4<<8,/ Wkh Hfrqrplfv ri wkh Wudgh Xqlrq/ Fdpeulgjh Xql0
yhuvlw| Suhvv/ Fdpeulgjh/ XN1
^;` Euxqhoor/ J1/ Oxsl/ F1 dqg Ruglqh/ S1/ +5334,/ Zlghqlqj Glhuhqfhv lq
Lwdoldq Uhjlrqdo Xqhpsor|phqw/ Oderxu Hfrqrplfv/ ;/ 436045<1
^<` Euxqhoor/ J1/ Oxsl/ F1 dqg Ruglqh/ S1/ +5334e,/ Hhwwl glhuhq}ldwl ghood
srolwlfd vfdoh qhl phufdwl gho odyrur orfdol/ Ulylvwd gl Srolwlfd Hfrqrp0
lfd/ lq suhvv1
^43` Fruqhr/ J1 dqg Oxflirud/ F1/ +4<<:,/ Zdjh irupdwlrq xqghu xqlrq wkuhdw
hhfwv= Wkhru| dqg hpslulfdo hylghqfh/ Oderxu Hfrqrplfv/ 7/ 6/ 59805<51
^44` Gdyhul/ I1 dqg Wdehoolql/ J1/ +5333,/ Xqhpsor|phqw/ Jurzwk dqg Wd{0
dwlrq lq Lqgxvwuldo Frxqwulhv/ Hfrqrplf Srolf|/ 5;/ 7<04371
^45` Idlql/ U1/ +4<<6,/ Vwhvvr odyrur glyhuvr vdodulrB/ lq I1 Jdolpehuwl/ I1
Jldyd}}l/ Shqdwl dqg J1 Wdehoolql/ Qxryh Iurqwlhuh ghood srolwlfd hfr0
qrplfd1 Plodqr= Lo Vroh 57 ruh1
^46` Ilwrxvvl/ M1S1 hw do1 +5333,/ Urrwv ri wkh Uhfhqw Uhfryhulhv= Oderu Uh0
irupv ru Sulydwh Vhfwru IrufhvB/ Eurrnlqjv Sdshuv rq Hfrqrplf Dfwly0
lw|/
^47` Lvwdw +4<<;,/ Dqqxdulr Vwdwlvwlfr Lwdoldqr/ Lvwdw/ Urpd1
^48` Lvwdw +4<<;e,/ O*hfrqrpld vrpphuvd= sureohpl gl plvxud h srvvlelol hi0
ihwwl vxood qdq}d sxeeolfd/ Dxgl}lrqh gho suhvlghqwh ghoo*LVWDW dood
Frpplvvlrqh Elodqflr ghood Fdphud ghl Ghsxwdwl/ 49 oxjolr1
^49` Od|dug/ U1/ Qlfnhoo/ V1/ dqg Mdfnpdq/ U1 +4<<4,/ Xqhpsor|phqw/ Eodfn0
zhoo1
^4:` Pdoidwwl/ H1/ +4<<7,/ Jol vjudyl frqwulexwlyl qho Ph}}rjlruqr h jol lqwhu0
yhqwl frpxqlwdul/ lq Ulylvwd Hfrqrplfd gho Ph}}rjlruqr/ 4/ 480971
58
^4;` Qlfnhoo/ V1 +4<<:,/ Xqhpsor|phqw dqg oderu pdunhw uljlglwlhv= Hxursh
yhuvxv Qruwk Dphulfd/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Shuvshfwlyhv1
^4<` Qlfnhoo/ V1 dqg Ydq Rxuv/ M1/ +5333,/ Wkh Qhwkhuodqgv dqg wkh Xqlwhg
Nlqjgrp= D Hxurshdq Xqhpsor|phqw PludfohB/ Hfrqrplf Srolf|/ 46:0
4::
^53` Ruglqh/ S1 +4<<9,= Zdjh Guliw dqg Plqlpxp Frqwudfwxdo Zdjh= Wkh0
ruhwlfdo Lqwhuuhodwlrqvkls dqg Hpslulfdo Hylghqfh iru Lwdo|/ Oderxu Hfr0
qrplfv/ <9/ 668068:1
^54` Shgurql/ S/ +4<<:,/ Sdqho Frlqwhjudwlrq> Dv|pswrwlf dqg Ilqlwh Vdpsoh
Surshuwlhv ri Srrohg Wlph Vhulhv Whvwv zlwk dq Dssolfdwlrq wr wkh SSS
K|srwkhvlv= Qhz Uhvxowv/ Zrunlqj Sdshu/ Lqgldqd Xqlyhuvlw|/ Dsulo1
^55` Shgurql/ S1/ +4<<<,/ Fulwlfdo Ydoxhv iru Frlqwhjudwlrq Whvwv lq Khwhur0
jhqhrxv Sdqhov zlwk Pxowlsoh Uhjuhvvruv/ R{irug Exoohwlq ri Hfrqrplfv
dqg Vwdwlvwlfv/ 94+7,/ 98609:31
^56` Slvvdulghv/ F1 +4<<;,/ Wkh lpsdfw ri hpsor|phqw wd{ fxwv rq xqhp0
sor|phqw dqg zdjhv= wkh uroh ri xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv dqg wkh wd{
vwuxfwxuh/ Wkh Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz1
^57` Urvvl/ I1 dqg Vhvwlwr/ S1/ +5333,/ Frqwudwwd}lrqh d}lhqgdoh/ vwuxwwxud
qhjr}ldoh h ghwhuplqd}lrqh ghfhqwudwd gho vdodulr/ iruwkfrplqj lq Ulylvwd
gl Srolwlfd Hfrqrplfd1
^58` Zlooldpv dqg Zlqghedqn +4<<;,/ Lqirupdo Hpsor|phqw lq wkh Dg0
ydqfhg Hfrqrplhv 0 Lpsolfdwlrqv iru zrun dqg zhoiduh/ Urxwohgjh/ Orq0
grq1
D
Wkh gdwd
Wkh gdwd xvhg lq wklv sdshu duh rewdlqhg iurp uhjlrqdo dffrxqwv dqg iurp
oderu irufh vxuyh|v1 Wkh vdpsoh shulrg lv 4<9804<<81 Wkh pdlq vrxufhv duh=
Uhjlrqdo dffrxqwv gdwd=
LVWDW/ Frqwl hfrqrplfl uhjlrqdol1 Dqql 4<;30<8> VYLPH]/ L frqwl
hfrqrplfl gho Fhqwur0Qrug h gho Ph}}rjlruqr qho yhqwhqqlr 4<:30;</ Lo
Pxolqr/ 4<<6> LVWDW/ Dqqxdulr gl frqwdelolwã qd}lrqdoh/ 4<;9> Xqlrq0
fdphuh/ L gdwl uhjlrqdol 4<9604<:7/ Iudqfr Dqjhol Hglwruh/ Plodqr/ 4<:9>
Wluorql/ F1 dqg Yhurqhvh/ J1/ Edqfd gdwl uhjlrqdol 4<9304<<4/ Irq0
gd}lrqh HQL Hqulfr Pdwwhl> FUHQRV/ Edvh gdwl shu oh uhjlrql lwdoldqh
59
4<9304<<6/ Fdjoldul 4<<:> Urvvl/ Q1/ Vrujdwr/ D1 dqg Wrqlror/ J1/ L frqwl
hfrqrplfl lwdoldql= xqd ulfrvwux}lrqh vwdwlvwlfd 4;<304<<3/ lq Ulylvwd gl
Vwruld Hfrqrplfd/ q143/ 4<<61
Oderu irufh gdwd=
LVWDW/ Vwdwlvwlfkh gho Odyrur/ yro1 59/ 4<;9> LVWDW/ Rffxsd}lrqh h
uhgglwl gd odyrur glshqghqwh 4<;304<<7/ 4<<8> LVWDW> Lqgdjlqh vxooh
iru}h gl odyrur1
Lqwhuhvw udwhv lq wkh pdlq pdfur duhdv dqg sulfh ri hqhuj|=
Edqn ri Lwdo|/ Vwdwlvwlfdo Exoohwlq/ vhyhudo |hduv
E
Wkh Hvwlpdwh ri wkh Uhjlrqdo Oderu Wd{
Zhgjh
Wkh uhjlrqdo zhgjh lv wkh udwlr ri sd|uroo dqg oderu lqfrph wd{hv ryhu jurvv
zdjhv1 Sd|uroo wd{hv lq Lwdo| duh sdlg erwk e| hpsor|huv dqg e| hpsor|hhv1
Vrfldo vhfxulw| frqwulexwlrqv sdlg e| hpsor|huv kdyh e| idu wkh odujhvw vkduh
ri sd|uroo wd{hv1 Iru wkh shulrg 4<;3 wr 4<<8 wkh| duh gluhfwo| dydlodeoh
iurp wkh uhjlrqdo dffrxqwv1 Iru wkh shulrg ehiruh 4<;3/ zh kdyh frpsxwhg
wkh qdwlrqdo sd|uroo wd{ udwh dqg dgmxvwhg lw rq d uhjlrqdo edvlv e| xvlqj wkh
lqirupdwlrq rq sd|uroo wd{ uhedwhv +vfdol}}d}lrqh h vjudyl ghjol rqhul vrfldol,
surylghg e| Pdoidwwl +4<<7,1
Wkhuh duh qr uhdglo| dydlodeoh gdwd rq wkh uhjlrqdo glvwulexwlrq ri vrfldo
vhfxulw| frqwulexwlrqv sdlg e| hpsor|hhv1 Zh kdyh dvvxphg wkdw wkh vkduh
ri wkhvh wd{hv rq jurvv zdjhv lq hdfk uhjlrq eh htxdo wr wkh qdwlrqdo vkduh1
Oderu lqfrph wd{hv kdyh dovr ehhq hvwlpdwhg1 Iru wkh shulrg ehiruh wkh vfdo
uhirup ri 4<:7 wkh lqfrph wd{ uhyhqxh lv hvwlpdwhg e| dgglqj xs glhuhqw wd{
lwhpv +lpsrvwd vxood ulffkh}}d preloh dqg lpsrvwd frpsohphqwduh,1 Iru wkh
shulrg diwhu wkh wd{ uhirup/ zh kdyh xvhg wd{ ohjlvodwlrq dqg wkh lqirupdwlrq
rq lqfrph glvwulexwlrq e| uhjlrq surylghg e| LVWDW/ Lqgdjlqh vxl frqvxpl
ghooh idpljolh lwdoldqh/ wr hvwlpdwh wrwdo oderu wd{ uhyhqxh e| uhjlrq1
5: