Working Paper Series
North-South Business Cycles
Michael A. Kouparitsas
Working Papers Series
Research Department
(WP-96-9)
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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C. Country lists
C.1 Northern and Southern regions
C.1.1 Southern countries
Low-income countries
Benin
Burkina Faso
Central African Republic
Egypt
Ethiopia
Gambia, The
Ghana
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
India
Kenya
Lesotho
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Nepal
Niger
Pakistan
Rwanda
Sierra Leone
Somalia
Sudan
Tanzania
Togo
Uganda
Zaire
Zambia
Middle-income countries
Argentina
Barbados
Bolivia
Botswana
Brazil
Cameroon
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Fiji
Greece
Guatemala
Jamaica
Jordan
Korea, Republic of
Malaysia
Malta
Mauritius
Mexico
Morocco
Nicaragua
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Portugal
Senegal
South Africa
Syrian Arab Republic
Thailand
Tunisia
Turkey
Uruguay
Zimbabwe
Hong Kong
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Singapore
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
C.1.2. Northern Countries
Australia
Austria
Canada
Cyprus
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Table 1: Regional business cycle correlations
Variable
Northern variable at t
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Correlation with same variable in South at t+j
j= -1
j= 0
j= +1
-0.27
(0.21)
0.18
(0.23)
-0.38
(0.19)
-0.25
(0.25)
-0.27
(0.17)
Data (1969-1988)
0.44
(0.14)
-0.07
(0.21)
0.52
(0.12)
0.09
(0.20)
0.18
(0.17)
0.68
(0.13)
-0.17
(0.22)
0.58
(0.17)
0.74
(0.12)
0.49
(0.19)
0.22
North-South model
0.52
0.05
Primary Output
-0.05
-0.68
0.03
Manufacturing Output
0.19
0.52
0.03
Consumption
0.24
0.75
0.11
Investment
0.21
0.74
0.09
Labor Hours
-0.07
0.52
0.21
Primary Output
Manufacturing Output
Consumption
Investment
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Notes: Items in the data rows report the author’s calculations based on data from World Bank 1991.
Values in parentheses are GMM standard errors using a QS kernel. The model rows report averages over
100 simulations of 80 quarters (20 years) for the North-South model. Actual and model data are Hodrick
and Prescott 1980 filtered with a smoothing parameter of 10. Quantity data are logged prior to filtering.
See appendix A for a detailed description of the data and appendix C for a listing of countries by region.
Table 2: International correlations
Correlation with:
Northern
GDP
Primary
Manufacturing
Northern
Real
Northern Terms of Commodity
NX/GDP
Trade
Price
Data (1969-1988)
-0.65
(0.20)
0.14
(0.21)
-0.61
(0.17)
-0.23
0.50
(0.20)
(0.20)
0.20
-0.20
(0.15)
(0.17)
-0.40
0.49
(0.16)
(0.15)
0.10
-0.31
(0.24)
(0.23)
North-South Model
NX / GDP
Northern
GDP
-0.47
-0.55
0.36
Primary
0.47
0.31
-0.56
Manufacturing
-0.55
-0.61
0.45
0.96
-0.96
NX / GDP
Correlation with:
Southern
GDP
Primary
Manufacturing
Southern
Real
Southern Terms of Commodity
NX/GDP
Trade
Price
Data (1969-1988)
-0.37
(0.24)
-0.39
(0.21)
-0.29
(0.27)
0.11
0.07
(0.18)
(0.22)
0.02
-0.32
(0.21)
(0.25)
0.27
0.19
(0.21)
(0.27)
0.28
0.40
(0.23)
(0.22)
North-South Model
NX / GDP
Southern
GDP
0.04
0.05
0.12
Primary
-0.12
-0.26
-0.18
Manufacturing
0.10
0.18
0.22
0.96
0.96
NX / GDP
Notes: Items in the shaded rows report the author’s calculations based on data from World Bank 1991. Values in parentheses are GMM standard
errors using a QS kernel. The unshaded rows report averages over 100 simulations of 80 quarters (20 years) for the North-South model. Actual
and model data are Hodrick and Prescott 1980 filtered with a smoothing parameter of 10. Quantity and price ratios are logged prior to filtering.
Real Commodity Price = ratio of world primary goods price to world manufactured goods price. Terms of trade = ratio of non-fuel export
prices to non-fuel import prices. See appendix A for a detailed description of the data and appendix C for a listing of countries by region.
Table 3: North-South business cycle volatility
Variable
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Primary Output
Manufacturing Output
Consumption
Investment
Percentage Standard Deviation from Trend
North
South
Data
Model
Data
Model
(1969-1988)
(1969-1988)
1.38
(0.25)
2.62
(0.51)
1.43
(0.22)
1.02
(0.17)
3.38
(0.65)
Labor Hours
Non-Fuel Net Exports / GDP
Non-Fuel Terms of Trade (px/pm)
Real Commodity Price (p1/p2)
1.41
2.59
1.44
0.77
3.46
0.78
(0.18)
1.46
(0.21)
1.10
(0.16)
0.71
(0.11)
2.53
(0.54)
0.54
0.22
(0.05)
0.18
1.00
1.49
1.16
0.86
2.94
0.46
0.67
(0.12)
0.91
4.74
(0.60)
6.98
(1.08)
4.63
6.74
Notes: Items in the data columns report the author’s calculations based on data from World Bank 1991. Values in
parentheses are GMM standard errors using a QS kernel. The remaining columns report averages over 100 simulations
of 80 quarters (20 years) for the North-South model. Actual and model data are Hodrick and Prescott 1980 filtered with a
smoothing parameter of 10. Quantity and price ratios are logged prior to filtering. Real commodity price=ratio of world
primary goods price to world manufactred goods price. Non-fuel terms of trade = ratio of non-fuel export prices to
non-fuel import prices. See appendix A for a detailed description of the data and appendix C for a listing of countries by
region.
Table 4: Within-region business cycle correlations
Correlation with:
Correlation with:
Pri
Northern
GDP
0.04
(0.31)
Primary
Man
Con
Data (1969-1988)
0.92
(0.02)
-0.03
(0.26)
Manufacturing
0.84
(0.10)
-0.13
(0.25)
0.80
(0.14)
Consumption
Inv
0.95
(0.02)
-0.00
(0.29)
0.89
(0.06)
0.82
(0.10)
Pri
Southern
GDP
0.11
(0.26)
Primary
Primary
Manufacturing
Consumption
0.42
0.90
(0.12)
-0.22
(0.21)
Manufacturing
0.76
(0.19)
0.07
(0.18)
0.75
(0.20)
Consumption
North-South Model
Northern
GDP
Man
Con
Data (1969-1988)
Inv
0.89
(0.20)
0.25
(0.29)
0.72
(0.25)
0.57
(0.21)
North-South Model
Southern
GDP
0.99
0.99
0.98
0.32
0.40
0.48
Primary
0.98
0.97
Manufacturing
0.96
0.54
0.91
0.77
0.84
0.17
0.16
0.22
0.84
0.89
Consumption
Notes: Items in the data rows report the author’s calculations based on data from World Bank 1991. Values in parentheses are GMM standard errors
using a QS kernel. The model rows report averages over 100 simulations of 80 quarters (20 years) for the North-South model. Actual and model data
are Hodrick and Prescott 1980 filtered with a smoothing parameter of 10. Quantity are logged prior to filtering. See appendix A for a detailed
description of the data and appendix C for a listing of countries by region.
0.95
Table 5: Benchmark parameters
Parameter
North
South
Preferences
β
σ
Ν
0.98
2.00
0.20
Production
δ
Primary sector
θ1
α1
(i/k)/(φN=φN’’)
(N/Ns)/(φΝ=φΝ’’)
Manufacturing sector
σε
θ2
ωy consistent with value-added cost share:
(i/k)/(φN=φN’’)
(N/Ns)/(φΝ=φΝ’’)
Trade
Primary
σµ1
ω1 consistent with imports/(total domestic usage) share:
Manufacturing
σµ2
ω2 consistent with imports/(total domestic usage) share:
Global
0.025
0.25
0.35
-0.70
-50.00
0.20
0.65
0.90
-0.10
-0.0001
1.00
0.40
0.11
0.03
0.34
0.50
Table 6: Actual and model steady state shares
North
South
Variable
Data
Model
Data
Model
Production-Domestic share
Output gross domestic product
Primary value-added
Manufacturing value-added
1.00
0.08
0.92
1.00
0.07
0.93
1.00
0.26
0.74
1.00
0.27
0.73
Production-World share
Output gross domestic product
Primary value-added
Manufacturing value-added
0.84
0.48
0.87
0.85
0.53
0.86
0.16
0.52
0.13
0.15
0.47
0.14
Labor-Sectoral share
Primary
Manufacturing
0.03
0.97
0.13
0.87
Investment-Sectoral share
Primary
Manufacturing
0.06
0.94
0.25
0.75
Expenditure-Share of GDP
Consumption
Investment
Exports
Imports
0.75
0.25
0.04
0.04
0.78
0.22
0.07
0.07
0.77
0.24
0.15
0.17
0.80
0.20
0.34
0.34
Trade-Export shares
Primary
Manufacturing
0.20
0.80
0.03
0.97
0.58
0.42
0.58
0.42
Notes: Author=s calculations based on data from World Bank (1991) and United Nations (1992), Tables 6.3 and 6.4.
Table 7: Variance Decomposition Bounds
Source of Innovation:
Variable
A. Both regions productivity shocks
Primary
Manufacturing
B. Northern Productivity Shocks
Primary
Manufacturing
Northern
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Primary Output
Manufacturing Output
Consumption
Capital Investment
(
(
(
(
(
14
97
8
15
24
,
,
,
,
,
14
97
8
15
24
)
)
)
)
)
(
(
(
(
(
86
3
92
85
76
,
,
,
,
,
86
3
92
85
76
)
)
)
)
)
(
(
(
(
(
11
96
6
11
18
,
,
,
,
,
11
96
6
11
18
)
)
)
)
)
(
(
(
(
(
77
2
82
76
68
,
,
,
,
,
86
3
92
85
76
)
)
)
)
)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Primary Output
Manufacturing Output
Consumption
Capital Investment
(
(
(
(
(
25
97
5
1
3
,
,
,
,
,
25
97
5
1
3
)
)
)
)
)
(
(
(
(
(
75
3
95
99
97
,
,
,
,
,
75
3
95
99
97
)
)
)
)
)
(
(
(
(
(
1
2
2
1
1
,
,
,
,
,
1
2
2
1
1
)
)
)
)
)
(
(
(
(
(
5
1
4
42
33
,
,
,
,
,
20
2
22
69
61
)
)
)
)
)
Non-Fuel Net Exports / GDP
Non-Fuel Terms of Trade (px/pm)
Real Commodity Price (p1/p2)
(
(
(
33
29
49
,
,
,
33
29
49
)
)
)
(
(
(
67
71
51
,
,
,
67
71
51
)
)
)
(
(
(
31
18
44
,
,
,
31
18
44
)
)
)
(
(
(
64
67
42
,
,
,
65
69
50
)
)
)
Southern
Notes: Each cell indicates the share the variable’s variance explained by the selected productivity shock(s). The first value indicates the lower bound of these variance
decomposition exercises, while the second value indictaes the upper bound. Note, that primary sector innovations are orthogonal to the manufacturing innovations.
Figure 1: North-South Business Cycles
A. Northern vs. Southern GDP
Percentage Deviation From Trend
North(t)
South(t+1)
B. Northern vs. Southern manufacturing
3
ρ = 0.68
(0.13)
North(t)
Percentage Deviation From Trend
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
2
0
-1
-2
-3
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987
C. Northern vs. Southern consumption
South(t+1)
D. Northern vs. Southern investment
8
ρ = 0.74
(0.12)
Percentage Deviation From Trend
Percentage Deviation From Trend
North(t)
2
1
0
-1
-2
ρ = 0.49
(0.19)
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
North(t)
-3
-8
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987
3
F. Real commodity price vs. primary
20
15
2
10
1
5
0
0
-1
-5
-2
-10
Real Commodity Price (RHS)
-3
-15
Manufacturing(LHS)
-4
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987
-20
4
Percentage Deviation From Trend
Percentage Deviation From Trend
ρ = 0.49
(0.15)
South(t+1)
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987
E. Real commodity price vs. manufacturing
4
ρ = 0.58
(0.17)
1
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987
3
South(t+1)
3
2
20
Real Commodity Price (RHS)
Primary (LHS)
15
10
1
5
0
0
-1
-5
-2
-10
-3
-4
ρ = −0.29
(0.14)
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987
-15
-20
Notes: Author’s calculations based on data from World Bank 1991. Unbracketed values reported in the chart are correlation coefficients. Values in
parentheses are GMM standard errors using a QS kernel. Data are Hodrick and Prescott 1980 filtered with a smoothing parameter of 10. Quantity and
price ratios are logged prior to filtering. Real commodity price = ratio of world primary goods price to world manufactured goods price. See
appendix A for a detailed description of the data and appendix C for a listing of countries by region.
Figure 2: The effects of a 1% shock to Northern manufacturing productivity
Northern output response
Southern output response
1
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
1
Manufacturing
Value-Added
0.8
Aggregate GDP
0.6
0.4
0.2
Primary
0
-0.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Primary
-0.2
35
0
5
Number of Quarters After Shock
Aggregate
Capital
Investment
1.5
Aggregate
Consumption
0.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2
1.5
0.5
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Number of Quarters After Shock
Southern labor response
0.75
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
35
Aggregate
Consumption
Northern labor response
0.5
0.25
Real Wage
0
Labor Hours
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0.5
Real Wage
0.25
0
Labor Hours
-0.25
Number of Quarters After Shock
0
5
Southern trade ratios
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
8
6
Bonds/Y*100
4
Net Exports/GDP*100
2
0
10
15
20
25
15
20
25
30
35
Southern trade volumes and prices
4
5
10
Number of Quarters After Shock
10
Deviation from Steady State
30
1
35
0.75
0
25
Aggregate
Capital
Investment
Number of Quarters After Shock
-2
20
Southern expenditure response
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
2
-0.25
15
2.5
2.5
0
10
Number of Quarters After Shock
Northern expenditure response
1
Manufacturing
Value-Added
Aggregate GDP
30
Number of Quarters After Shock
35
Real commodity
price p1/p2
3
Terms of Trade px/pm
2
1
Imports
0
Exports
-1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Number of Quarters After Shock
35
Figure 3: The effects of a 1% shock to Southern primary productivity
Northern output response
Southern output response
1
0.75
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
1
Manufacturing
Value-Added
0.5
Aggregate GDP
0.25
0
Primary
-0.25
-0.5
Primary
0.75
0.5
Aggregate GDP
0.25
0
Manufacturing
Value-Added
-0.25
-0.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
35
5
Northern expenditure response
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
0
Aggregate
Consumption
-0.25
0.25
35
5
10
15
20
25
30
Aggregate
Consumption
-0.25
-0.5
0
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Number of Quarters After Shock
Southern labor response
0.2
0.2
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
30
0
Northern labor response
0.15
Real Wage
0.1
0.05
0
Labor Hours
-0.05
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0.15
0.1
Labor Hours
0.05
0
-0.05
Real Wage
-0.1
35
0
5
10
Number of Quarters After Shock
15
20
25
30
35
Number of Quarters After Shock
Southern trade ratios
Southern trade volumes and prices
1
Percentage Deviation from Steady State
0.5
Deviation from Steady State
25
Aggregate
Capital
Investment
Number of Quarters After Shock
0
Net Exports/GDP*100
-0.5
Bonds/Y*100
-1
-1.5
-2
20
Southern expenditure response
Aggregate
Capital
Investment
0.25
-0.1
15
0.5
0.5
-0.5
10
Number of Quarters After Shock
Number of Quarters After Shock
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Number of Quarters After Shock
35
Exports
Imports
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
Terms of Trade px/pm
-1.5
-2
Real commodity
price p1/p2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Number of Quarters After Shock
35
Figure 5: The effects of varying the elasticity of
substitution between Northern and Southern
manufactured goods
Figure 4: The effects of varying the elasticity of
substitution between manufacturing inputs
A. Correlations
A. Correlations
1
1
Consumption
Consumption
North-South Correlation
North-South Correlation
Manufacturing Value-Added
0.8
0.6
Gross Domestic Product
0.4
0.2
Manufacturing Productivity Shock
0.8
0.6
Gross Domestic Product
Manufacturing Value-Added
0.4
0.2
Manufacturing Productivity Shock
0
0.20
0
0.02 0.20 0.38 0.56 0.74 0.92 1.10 1.28 1.46 1.64 1.82 2.00
0.38
0.56
B. Standard Deviations
Percentage Standard Deviation
Percentage Standard Deviation
1.10
1.28
1.46
1.64
1.82
2.00
7
14
12
Real commodity price p1/p2
10
8
Terms of Trade px/pm
6
4
2
0
0.02 0.20 0.38 0.56 0.74 0.92 1.10 1.28 1.46 1.64 1.82 2.00
6
Terms of Trade px/pm
5
4
Relative price of manufactures p2s/p2n
3
2
1
0
0.20
0.38
0.56
Elasticity of Substitution
0.74
0.92
1.10
1.28
1.46
1.64
1.82
2.00
Elasticity of Substitution
Figure 6: The effects of varying the cross-region
correlation of non-primary innovations
Figure 7: The effects of varying the primary sector
labor adjustment elasticity
A. Correlations
A. Correlations
1
Consumption
0.8
0.8
0.6
Gross Domestic Product
0.4
Manufacturing Productivity Shock
0.2
Sectoral Correlation
North-South Correlation
0.92
B. Standard Deviations
16
1
0.74
Elasticity of Substitution
Elasticity of Substitution
Southern Sectoral Output Correlation
0.6
0.4
Northern Sectoral Output Correlation
0.2
Manufacturing Value-Added
0
0.01
0
0.10
0.19
0.28
0.37
0.46
0.54
0.63
0.72
0.81
0.90
-1
-6
B. Standard Deviations
-22
-27
-33
-38
-43
-48
8
Percentage Standard Deviation
Percentage Standard Deviation
-17
B. Standard Deviations
8
7
6
Terms of Trade px/pm
5
4
3
2
-12
Primary Labor Adjustment Elasticity
Manufacturing Productivity Correlation
Relative price of manufactures p2s/p2n
1
0.01
0.10
0.19
0.28
0.37
0.46
0.54
0.63
0.72
Manufacturing Productivity Correlation
0.81
0.90
Real commodity price p1/p2
7
6
5
4
3
Terms of Trade px/pm
2
1
-1
-6
-12
-17
-22
-27
-33
-38
Primary Labor Adjustment Elasticity
-43
-48
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