153
Chapter 8
Internal Migration Patterns
by Age and Sex at the Start
of the 21st Century
Adam Dennett
University of Leeds, UK
John Stillwell
University of Leeds, UK
ABSTRACT
Moving home is an event that most people experience at some stage in their lives. Previous research has
shown that while men and women tend to have similar rates of migration overall, significant variations
occur according to age. In this chapter, the authors examine these demographic influences on migration
for internal migration in Britain using data from the 2001 Census Special Migration Statistics at district
scale. The analysis of migrations rates reveals some subtle differences between males and females by
age but spatial patterns of net migration for both sexes emphasise that losses for London and provincial
urban centres and gains in rural Britain vary significantly by age. The chapter uses a national area
classification framework to summarise the patterns of net migration taking place in the year before the
2001 Census at district scale and the latter part of the chapter explores indices of population stability – turnover and churn – that provide alternative insights into migration patterns across the country,
particularly when disaggregated by age. These measures of migration are important because it is apparent that some areas that exhibit relatively low net rates of movement, actually have large numbers of
migrants moving within their boundaries as well as inflows from and outflows to other areas – movements
which clearly impact on the stability of their populations and have policy implications.
INTRODUCTION
The migration process involves three key variables:
the migrant, the origin and the destination. Variations in the particular attributes of all three of these
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-61520-755-8.ch008
variables, together with intervening opportunities,
make for complex migration behaviour. On a
detailed micro level, any individual migrant will
exhibit a unique combination of individual attributes
relating to their age, sex, ethnicity, socio-economic
status, et cetera, including their own perceptions of
where they live now and where they might live in
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Internal Migration Patterns by Age and Sex at the Start of the 21st Century
the future based on their own understanding of the
places involved. Whilst data on certain individual
attributes are captured by the Census of Population,
confidentiality constraints limit access to samples
of anonymised records and detailed surveys are
required to provide information about perceptions
and values. At a macro level, on the other hand, a
range of data sources (see Chapter 1) provide either
total migration flows or flows disaggregated by
certain variables. Moreover, there are particular
features of origin and destination places that are
commonly measured or quantifiable, perhaps
relating to features such as job vacancies, unemployment or crime that we can use as potential
factors with which to explain migration flows.
Much research has focused on building models to
quantify the significance on migration of particular
attributes of origins and destinations as well as
the distance between them.
Thus, as Cadwallader (1989) has demonstrated,
models are frequently developed for flows at the
macro level and the importance of each explanatory
factor is inferred from the coefficients calibrated by
the model, whilst the real decisions to leave the origin or to choose a particular destination are a taken
at the micro level. Whilst there may be a myriad
of individual motivations and complex interactions
between the migrant and their existing or desired
locations, some migrant attributes and indeed the
attributes of places are more likely to affect both the
propensity to migrate and the origin or destination
of migration than others. In this chapter we focus
on two demographic attributes of migrant flows at
the macro level – age and sex – and offer a national
overview, based on data from the 2001 Census, of
age/sex-specific migration patterns within Britain
at the start of the new millennium.
THE INfLUENCE Of AGE AND SEX
ON MIGRATION PROPENSITIES
Stillwell (2008) makes the distinction between
the characteristics of migrants or places which
154
influence the propensity to migrate (such as
age or socio-economic status) and the factors
which actually determine if a move takes place
(such as the need for a job) and explains why
the move occurs to a particular destination
(such as more vacancies in one area rather than
in others). Both influences and determinants
are clearly interlinked and both have spawned
research seeking to describe and account for
internal and international migration around the
world. Here our focus is on the propensity to
migrate and the particular demographic characteristics of migrants that might make them
more or less likely to change their permanent
residence. Much research has been carried out
on the particular attributes of migrants which
might influence their migration behaviours. In
this volume, for example, Stillwell (Chapter
9) explains in detail the influence of ethnicity
on migrant behaviours; elsewhere, Finney and
Simpson (2008) have carried out similar work
using 2001 Census data and Owen (1997) provides a detailed examination from the 1991
Census. Other work, such as that by Champion
and Coombes (2007) has flagged the importance
of the socio-economic status of the migrant.
One of the more major attributes affecting an
individual’s propensity to migrate is their age. A
large volume of work, including studies in the
1980s by (Rogers and Castro, 1981; Bates and
Bracken, 1982; Rogers et al., 2002; Raymer et
al., 2006; Raymer et al., 2007), has identified
the influence of age on migration behaviour. The
seminal work of Rogers and Castro (1981) was
important in identifying the similarities in migration rate age ‘schedules’ across a range of countries
and cities. From these common observations,
Rogers and Castro were able to construct a model
migration schedule consisting of a series of key
age-related components. Consider the example
shown in Figure 1.
Whilst Figure 1 is an empirical schedule constructed from 2001 Census data for Britain as a
whole based on data for quinary age groups, the
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