ACF Morning Note
Friday, 08 July 2016
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Friday, 08 July 2016
ACF Morning Note
The Headlines this Morning
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Crude oil price movements show just how everpresent the over production and slowing
demand factors remain.
In May the US created 38k jobs representing its
slowest pace in 5 years. This month the
consensus number for job creation is 170k.
●
US city of Dallas is in shock after the shootings of 11 members of the police
service from elevated positions, 4 of whom were killed. A person of interest has
turned themselves in but Dallas police are not yet convinced all parties are in
custody. Dallas airspace has been closed as part of the response;
●
Japan has an election in which the main issue is the assertion that Abenomics
has failed. The Abe coalition wants to boost the military in response to China and
needs a two thirds majority to push through the military expansion by changing
the constitution;
●
The UK is set to have its second female PM either Theresa May (Remain) and
Andrea Leadsom (Brexiteer);
●
German exports plummet by 1.8% vs. consensus rise of 0.4% and imports
dropped by 0.1% vs. consensus +0.1%;
●
Crude oil prices fell 7% during intraday trading but finished 5% down, its biggest
daily fall in 5 months all on the back of higher than expected crude inventories
in the US;
●
Air France’s CFO leaves his job this morning, appointed in December 2013.
US equities:
S&P 500 shaved 0.09% from its value closing at 2,097.90 after a positive open, but as
trading progressed the oil price weakened and markets began to track. Losses were
reduced as bargain hunters entered the market ahead of today’s labour market reports.
Crude prices took a 5% hit after weekly crude supplies declined by just 2.2m bbls, less
than anticipated. DJIA closed down 0.13% at 17,895.88. The Nasdaq bucked the trend
gaining 0.36% to close on 4,876.81. Data – Employment situation, Labour force survey,
consumer credit and the Baker-Hughes rig count. Equity futures are currently
suggesting a marginally negative open later today. The IG Vix is at 16.18
Asian equities:
MSCI is down this morning and oil and gas and utilities are down over 1% as investor
believe crude supplies will again drown the market. Weakness is present across the
region apart from Aussie equities, which are flat, in light of some political certainty. In
stock specific activity Nintendo jumped over 11% on downloads of one of its new games
in Australia and the US.
European equities:
Commercial property prices are expected to fall
20% in the UK
Stoxx 600 closed up 1.05% at 322.12 on the back of a rebound in banks (which have
been slaughtered over recent sessions). Data – Swiss unemployment; German
merchandise trade; French industrial production; UK merchandise trade. European
equity futures are suggesting a more determinedly negative open vs. the US this
morning.
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ACF Morning Note
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