Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Waste Management Technologies in Regions, Georgia Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara Autonomous Republic and Kakheti Region of Georgia March 14, 2016 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by ICMA and CENN. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia USAID Cooperative Agreement AID-114-LA-14-00001 Prepared for: Mission Environmental Office Economic Growth Office USAID | Caucasus Prepared by: International City/County Management Association 777 North Capitol Street NE, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20002-4201 Caucasus Environmental NGO Network (CENN) 27, Betlemi str., 0105, Tbilisi, Georgia The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Executive Summary Georgia has embarked on an ambitious structural reform to modernize its waste management system. This transition is supported by an association agreement signed with the European Union, and a new waste management code providing the legal framework for waste prevention, reduction, reuse, recycling, and the safe disposal of solid waste. This report conducts an economic evaluation of alternative waste management options for the Adjara Autonomous Republic (AR) and the Kakheti region in light of the evolving waste management system. The goal is to inform policymakers about the economic potential of alternative waste management strategies; to highlight issues about system integration and stakeholder impacts; and to suggest a strategy for mobilizing international support for financing recycling and composting alternatives that reduce methane and CO2 emissions, providing global benefits. The study considers a number of waste management options. It evaluates the cost of waste disposal at landfills, the benefits and costs of operating landfill-based materials recovery facilities, the netbenefits of source separation and recycling programs, and the benefits and costs of composting systems. The analysis is unique in its monetization of the economic value of reducing methane emissions through local composting programs. The key findings are summarized in table below, and elaborated as follows: The total social costs of conventional solid waste disposal in the Adjara AR and the Kakheti region are quite high, when considering the cost of waste collection and transport, disposal costs at sanitary landfills, and the social cost of methane emissions -- even with relatively efficient landfill gas recovery systems. The median social cost of landfilling in the Adjara AR is about $84 per ton when local costs are converted using a nominal exchange rate, and about $169 per ton when a purchasing power parity (ppp) index is used to make the conversion. The corresponding figures for the Kakheti region are about $49 per ton and $75 per ton. These costs, in particular those for the Adjara AR, are as high or higher than those in some regions in the United States and Europe. The incremental costs of operating a landfill-based materials recovery facility (MRF) relative to landfill disposal is about $3.5 per ton. The value of recovered materials and reduced CO2 emissions will cover this cost under most scenarios considered. The materials recovery efficiency, the price of commodities, and the mix of materials entering the MRF are the key parameters influencing the incremental net value of operating a landfill-based materials recovery facility. Source separation and recycling programs can also provide net economic benefits relative to conventional solid waste disposal. These programs will raise collection and transport costs on net by approximately the total social cost of solid waste disposal (left side of table), but will also provide value in recovered material and reduced CO2 emissions (not shown in table below but summarized here). For the reference year considered, the price of glass varies between about $30 per ton for green to $54 per ton for clear; paper prices vary from about $57 per ton for mixed grades to $100 per ton for office paper; and plastics vary from about $128 per ton for colored polyethylene terephthalate (PET) to $671 per ton for high-density polyethylene (HDPE). Aluminum is valued at $1154 per ton. The value of reducing life-cycle CO2 emissions also varies by the material recycled, from about $2 per ton for glass, to $14 per ton as an average for different grades of paper and cardboard, to $36 per ton as an 1 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia average for plastics, and to $131 per ton for aluminum. Putting it all together, the benefits of source separation and recycling in the Adjara AR outweigh the incremental handling costs for all materials but brown glass, green glass, and mixed glass when the local costs of the programs are converted using nominal exchange rates, and for aluminum cans and most plastics when local costs are represented using PPP exchange rates. In the Kakheti region, source separation and recycling gives positive net social value for all materials but mixed glass when local costs are converted using a nominal exchange rate, and for all materials but green glass and mixed glass when local costs are measured using the PPP index. The benefits of local composting include cost savings from avoided waste haulage, landfill disposal cost savings, the value of reduced methane emissions, improvements in the operational efficiency of materials recovery facilities, and the value of the produced compost. The median benefit of compost from the Adjara AR is about $72 per ton using nominal exchange rates, and $98 using a PPP index. For the Kakheti region, the comparable figures are about $61 and $68 per ton. The magnitude of these benefits should cover the costs of the collection and production processes that give rise to them. Issues facing policymakers include how to finance the emerging new waste management system, which is relatively costly, but generates economic value on net; how to balance competing stakeholder interests; and how to integrate the various parts of the system – the evolving transportation system, new alternatives such as local recycling and composting, and the use of MRFs at sanitary landfills. The fact that composting produces a high-valued global public good suggests the desirability of mobilizing international financial assistance to support the new waste management system. The analysis in this report is relatively generic. To provide more information, pilot programs could be conducted to clarify which program designs maximize net value in what contexts. Data could be collected on performance and economic cost, as well as stakeholder impacts. Pilot programs could also assess the impact of alternative fee structures on stakeholder incentives and program revenues. 2 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Summary of Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara Autonomous Republic and Kakheti Region of Georgia Region Total Social Cost of Collection, Transport, and Disposal of Municipal Solid Waste, 2015 USD, using nominal exchange rate Incremental cost per ton from using MRF (USD, 5% discount rate) Value Recovered at MRFs Per Ton of Waste Throughput (20% recovery efficiency, USD) Low Price High Price Social Value (Benefit) of Averted CO2 Emissions and Recyclables Value Per Ton of Mixed-Waste Processed (20% recovery efficiency, USD) Low Price High Price Adjara AR Batumi 82.9 Kobuleti 75.3 4.32 31.4 5.72 32.89 Khulo 67.9 Khelvachauri 88.5 Shuakhevi 111.7 Kakheti Region Akmeta 49.1 3.5 Gurjaani 47.1 Dedoplistskaro 46.7 City of Telavi 37.6 3.85 27.86 5.00 29.25 Telavi 50.5 Lagodekhi 60.5 Sagarejo 52.8 Signagi 55.7 Kvareli 44.5 * Assuming 10% mass compaction from composting; Assuming 10% compaction; for year 2020; discounted at 5% to 2015 Benefits Generated Per Ton of Compost, 2015 USD, using nominal exchange rate* Adjara AR 60.8 64.5 110.4 63.1 98.6 Kakheti Region 67.9 63.4 60.8 56.5 66.9 60.6 56.5 67.9 60.3 1 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table of Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 4 2. Waste Management in the Adjara Autonomous Republic and Kakheti Region ................... 5 2.1 Adjara Autonomous Republic........................................................................................... 6 2.2 Kakheti Region ................................................................................................................ 7 3. Economic Evaluation of Solid Waste Collection, Removal, and Landfilling.......................... 8 3.1 The Costs of Landfilling Municipal Solid Waste ................................................................. 8 3.2 The Social Cost of Methane Emissions ............................................................................ 10 3.3 The Cost of Waste Collection and Removal ..................................................................... 11 3.4 The Total Cost of Solid Waste Disposal ........................................................................... 13 4. Economic Evaluation of Source Separation and Recycling ............................................... 14 4.1 Source Separation at Materials Recovery Facilities ......................................................... 15 4.2 The Social Value of Reducing CO2 Emissions through Recycling ....................................... 16 4.3 Decentralized Source Separation and Recycling .............................................................. 18 4.4 Organic Waste Diversion and Composting ...................................................................... 20 5. Policy Issues .................................................................................................................. 22 5.1 Economic Evaluation Issues............................................................................................ 23 5.2 Stakeholder Effects ........................................................................................................ 24 6. Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................... 24 Tables ..................................................................................................................................... 27 Appendix: Data For Value And GHG Emissions Savings For Recovered Recyclables .......................... 55 References .................................................................................................................................... 57 1 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Glossary of Waste Management Terms Alternative Daily Cover (ADC): Material, other than soil, applied to the surface of a landfill at the end of daily operating hours, to prevent or mitigate damage or disruption by wind and animals, reduce fire risk, and control odors. Anaerobic Digestion: Conversion of complex organic compounds into simpler compounds, especially gases such as methane and carbon dioxide, in the absence of oxygen. Co-mingled Recycling: Recyclable materials that are collected together, or a recycling system that uses such a collection method. Composting: Controlled aerobic decomposition of organic wastes to produce nutrient-rich materials, typically for agricultural use. Dual-Stream Recycling: A recycling system where materials are collected in two separate categories—usually separating paper/fibers from other recyclables, which remain co-mingled. Dry Waste: Waste that will not readily decompose on its own, due to low water content; includes paper and fibers, but not other organic materials, as well as metals, glass, and plastics. Gasification: In waste management, rapid pyrolysis of waste to produce landfill gas; often uses plasma torch as a heating source. Landfill Airspace: The volume of space at a landfill that is available for waste disposal, as specified by the landfill’s design and permit. Landfill Cell: Operational unit within a landfill; new cells become operational once the airspace in existing cells is exhausted. Landfill Gas (LFG): Mainly methane and carbon dioxide emissions that are produced from the anaerobic decomposition of organic wastes in a landfill. Landfill Gas (LFG) Capture: The collection of landfill gas for flaring or use in heating or power generation. Materials Recovery Facility (MRF): A plant which takes mixed wastes, co-mingled recyclables, or dual-stream recyclables, separates them by waste/recyclable type, and processes them into reusable materials by methods other than composting. Non-Methane Organic Compounds (NMOC): Organic gases besides methane or CO2, typically present in trace amounts in landfill gas and potentially including hazardous air pollutants or smog precursors. Organic Waste: Waste with high carbon content, originating directly from living sources, and produced by domestic or industrial activities. Plastics: synthetic resins in the form of long-chain polymers usually derived from petroleum, Plastic Resin Types: #1 PET - Polyethylene Terephthalate #2 HDPE - High-density Polyethylene 2 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia #3 Vinyl #4 LDPE - Low-density Polyethylene #5 PP - Polypropylene #6 PS - Polystyrene #7 Other - Mixed Plastics Post-Consumer Waste: Waste originating directly from consumer goods, collected from domestic or commercial sources, e.g., empty containers or waste paper. Pre-Consumer Waste: Waste originating from industrial processes that has not been directly used by consumers, e.g., by-products or excess material from production activity. Pyrolysis: The chemical decomposition of complex organic compounds using the application of heat, by processes other than combustion. Single-Stream Recycling: A recycling system where all recyclable materials, including paper/fibers, are co-mingled and collected together. Source Separation: The practice of separating different waste or recyclable categories, as they are generated, by households or firms. Tipping Fee: A fee paid in exchange for the right to deliver a certain amount of waste to a landfill or MRF. Wet Waste: Organic waste with significant water content, which decomposes readily and is suitable for composting but not recycling. Windrow: In waste management, a long, narrow, relatively low pile of organic waste or compost. 3 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia 1. Introduction Municipal solid waste management in Georgia is beginning an important transitional period of structural modernization. Current problems include inadequate waste collection service, especially in rural areas; the absence of fee systems for waste collection in all but larger cities; inefficient routings for waste transportation; and the disposal of municipal wastes into landfills and dumps that do not meet international standards (SAO 2015). Source reduction and recycling of post-consumer wastes is not widely practiced in the country. To tackle these problems, Georgia has embarked on ambitious program of capacity building and new investment to promote the development of an integrated waste management system. This sectoral reform will bring to a close all of the old landfills and uncontrolled dump sites in the country, and replace them with regional sanitary landfills meeting international standards. Existing old landfills that do not pose a serious risk to the environment and human health and can be brought in compliance with the Technical Regulation on Construction, Operation, Closure and Aftercare of Landfills are estimated to be closed within the next eight years, while existing landfill that pose serious and uncontrollable risks to human health and the environment will be closed no later than 4 years after the entry into force of the new Technical Regulation.1 Source separation, reuse, recycling, and composting is expected to be an integral part of this new system, and some new landfills will include on-site materials recovery facilities. An investment of 370 million GEL is expected to be made in the waste management sector by 2025 (Zhorzholiani 2015). Supporting this transition is an association agreement reached with the European Union to encourage environmental protection in Georgia, and a new waste management code that establishes the legal framework for encouraging waste prevention, reduction, reuse, recycling, and the safe disposal of solid waste (USAID 2015). This law came into effect on January 15, 2015. Different donors and International Financial Institutions are supporting Georgia in this transitional period, including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), German Development Bank (Kfw), and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). The prospective evolution of the waste management sector in Georgia has significant economic implications. The development of the new system will represent a change from a status quo in which citizens do not pay for the full social cost of waste disposal to a system where charges will more closely reflect social costs. For example, the estimated tipping fee for the new EBRD-financed Tsetskhlauri sanitary landfill in the Autonomous Republic of Adjara will be about $22 per ton, or close to 50 GEL (Hygenia, 2009).2 In contrast, tipping fees are not paid under current practice by municipal collection companies for the disposal of municipal solid waste, although tipping fees are paid by private companies. Using data for total disposal charges and the tons of waste disposed by municipalities in the Adjara AR and Kakheti region give an average that ranges from 1.7 to 4.5 GEL per ton.3 The difference between current charges and planned tipping fees at new sanitary landfills can be taken as an implicit lower bound of the country’s willingness to pay to avoid the local public health and environmental costs of continuing with the status quo. Transportation costs are also likely to change in the new regime. The existing fleet is outdated and new investment will be needed in the sector. The expansion of waste collection service to rural areas and the shift from local dumping to the long-range transport of wastes to regional sanitary landfills will increase transportation costs. These costs will be lowered by the construction of transfer 1 This regulation entered into force on August 11, 2015 pursuant to Government of Georgia Resolution № 421. All currency values for mid-year 2015. Tons are metric. 3 Computed from data in USAID (2015). 2 4 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia stations, and improved routing efficiencies as part of the waste sector rationalization. However, additional investments will be needed to bring these efficiencies about. Thus, the net effect of the sectoral restructuring on waste transport costs is not obvious ex ante, and presumptively will differ between urban and rural regions. Apart from country-specific economic issues, there is global economic value to curtailing CO2 emissions and methane, which recycling and composting respectively reduce. Monetary values for both the social cost of carbon and the social cost of methane are now available and used in Regulatory Impact Analysis of federal regulations in the United States; for example, for the benefit cost analysis of new source performance standards for methane emissions from sanitary landfills (USEPA 2015a). The global willingness to pay to reduce CO2 and methane emissions, in the wake of Paris Climate Accord, will affect the economic value of integrating materials recycling and composting methods into the future Georgian waste management system. The goal of this study is to characterize the benefits and costs of increasing recycling and composting in the new waste management regime. The study focuses specifically on two regions, the Autonomous Republic of Adjara (Adjara AR) and the Kakheti region, where primary source information generated through the WMTR program is available. The study will also rely on secondary source data from academic research and government reports, and standard methods for benefit cost analysis and stakeholder impact assessment (e.g., Krutilla 2005). Relevant site-specific information is not available for this analysis, including the development of new routings for waste collection, the details of future expansions of waste collection service to remoter regions, the locations of future transfer stations, and the locations and configurations of recycling and composting facilities. This kind of detail can significantly affect economic comparisons. However, the available information is sufficient to support an evaluation of the fundamental economic tradeoffs associated with recycling, composting, and sanitary landfilling in Georgia, and to offer suggestions for piloting future site-specific projects whose evaluation could provide additional insights. The remainder of this study is structured as follows. Section 2 provides perspective on current waste management practices in the Adjara AR and Kakheti region to provide context for the analysis which follows. Section 3 develops an estimate of the social cost of municipal solid waste management when wastes are collected and disposed of in landfills, using estimates for landfilling costs that will obtain in the emerging waste management system. Section 4 conducts an economic evaluation of alternative waste management systems, including centralized materials sorting at materials recovery facilities, locally-based source separation and recycling programs, and the diversion and processing of organic wastes into compost for local applications. Section 5 takes stock of the policy issues that are suggested by the economic evaluation. This final section summarizes the main findings and policy implications of the analysis, and makes recommendations for future evaluation. 2. Waste Management in the Adjara Autonomous Republic and Kakheti Region This section provides background on the current waste management systems in the Adjara AR and Kakheti region. Information comes largely from reports generated through the WTMR program and a UNDEP-sponsored inventory of waste composition in the region. An assessment from the Georgian State Audit Office was also used (SAO 2015). Detail on the prospective Tsetskhlauri sanitary landfill in the Adjara AR came from a report from the limited liability (LLC) company which is developing the site, and will manage it when the landfill operation commences (Hygenia 2009). 5 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia 2.1 Adjara Autonomous Republic The Adjara Autonomous Republic is a 3,000 km2 region in southwest Georgia on the black sea coast, bounded to the east by the interior regions of Guria and Samtskhe-Javakheti. It has a total population of about 393,700. Like other regions of Georgia, the Adjara AR is divided into “municipalities”-subregional administrative districts. Three of the municipalities, Khelvachauri, Batumi, and Kobuleti, are situated along the 57 km coastline (from south to north respectively). The other three municipalities -- Keda, Khulo, and Shuakhevi – are located in an interior, mountainous region. The city of Batumi and Kobuleti are the main urban centers in the Adjara AR, with populations of over 160, 000 and 93,000 respectively (See Table 1). These cities are popular tourist destinations, and their populations increase during the summer (Hygenia 2009). There are also seven towns in Adjara AR, and 333 villages, or “settlements.” Only about 22% of the population lives in villages and rural areas (USAID 2014a). Population densities range from 46 per km2 in Keda to 2,484 per km2 in Batumi (See Table 1). The annual waste stream in the Adjara AR ranges from .34 tons per capita in Batumi to .02 tons in Shuakhevi. 95% percent of the waste is generated by households.4 Data for the summer time shows that organics compose about 40% of the waste stream, polyethylene plastics about 20%, paper and cardboard over 17%, with glass, scrap metal, and other constituents accounting for smaller fractions (See Table 2). Due to the influx of tourists to the region in the summer time, the waste stream composition differs on a seasonal basis. Municipal solid waste collection and disposal is handled by a limited liability company (LLC), Sandastuptaveba LTD, which is owned by the city of Batumi (USAID 2014a). Residents are charged a monthly fee for waste collection services that varies by municipality in the region from around .3 to 1.3, with business charged fees from 4 to 16.5 GEL per m3 of waste per month (USAID 2015).5 Collection rates are low, and the revenue yield from waste disposal charges accounts for a minor share of the total budget allocated to waste management. The average annual budgetary outlay on waste management services per person receiving them various considerably among the municipalities, from a low of 12.2 GEL per ton per year in Khelvachauri, to a high of 91 GEL per year in Shuakhevi. The cost in Batumi of 41.9 per ton is slightly above the median of 38.0, and below the average of 46.7 (Again see Table 1). For lack of financial resources, Sandastuptaveba LTD does not collect waste from all of the towns and settlements in the region. Collection and disposal services ranges from only 5% in the Keda municipality to 100% in Batumi (See Table 1). Waste transport distances from Keda to a landfill near Batumi is 140 km. When collection services exist in remoter areas, waste collection frequency is lower (e.g., every other day). Waste is collected from common containers situated near households and businesses, and is loaded manually on to dump trucks, or in more urban areas, collected by modern compacter trucks. Collected waste is then deposited in two main landfills servicing the region, located on the administrative territory of Batumi city, south of Batumi (“the Batumi landfill”), and Kobuleti.6 Like other older landfills in Georgia, these landfills never went through a permitting process, and thus lack monitoring criteria (SAO 2015). They are “old style” non-sanitary landfills without sufficient isolation of waste from the environment, or perimeter barriers to prevent animals 4 The 5% portion includes wastes from offices and similar commercial establishments; it does not include construction or industrial waste. Sandastuptaveba LTD and several other companies also provide street sweeping and cleaning services in the municipalities 6 Illegal landfills in Shuakhevi, Khulu, and Keda were closed in 2010, and waste from these municipalities is now shipped to the Batumi landfill (USAID 2014a) 5 6 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia and scavengers away. These landfills will be eventually be closed as part of the waste management sectoral reform. In remoter settlements in the Adjara AR lacking waste collection service, the only option is “backyard” dumping or the use of uncontrolled dump sites (USAID 2014a). Waste collection service coverage expansion and the introduction of options for materials separation and recovery and/or decentralized composting are needed to ameliorate the health and environmental problems posed by these informal waste disposal practices. Municipally-sponsored recycling programs currently do not exist in the Adjara AR. However, there is some informal recycling. Sanitation workers or street cleaners recover metals and glass during their daily routine, and locals scavenge materials from collection bins, or from landfills and unregistered dump sites (USAID 2014a). This pattern is not uncommon in poorer regions and countries in the World (Beede and Bloom 1995).There is also a secondary market for plastic resins from small scale industries (USAIDb). Recovered material is sold to brokers, who then resell the material to local manufacturers, or export it to manufacturers located nearby in Turkey or on other places. As part of the planned structural reform of the waste management sector, planning for the construction of a large-capacity sanitary landfill in Tsetskhlauri, near Kobuleti, is well advanced. This landfill is financed by a 5.6 million Euro loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Delivered waste will be deposited onto the floor of a sorting area, and recoverable materials will be sorted and removed semi-manually. Recyclable material will be sold, and residual wastes deposited into the landfill (Hygenia 2009). A methane recovery system will be installed some period after the landfill begins operating. The landfill is expected to accept an increasing volume of waste over time as population in the region grows. The waste stream is projected to start at 40,000 tons per year (tpy), and increase over the 35 year expected life of the landfill to 134 thousand tons per year, with an average of 80,000 tons per year (Hygenia 2009). 2.2 Kakheti Region The Kakheti region is situated on the other side of the county in northeast Georgia. It is bounded to the east by the Caucasus mountain border areas of the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan, and to the west by the Georgian regions of Mtskheta and Kvemo Kartli. The total area is about 11,310 km2, with an approximate population of 407,200 people. Population densities range from 19 per km2 in the Akemeta municipality to 1,744 in the city of Telavi (See Table 2). The average and median municipal waste generated is respectively .2 and .12 tons per year, 50% higher than in the Adjara AR. The composition of the waste stream is similar to that in the Adjara AR, however, with organics accounting for 43% of the waste, polyethylene/plastics 19 percent, and paper/cardboard 17%. (See Table 2). Agriculture comprises a significant part of the economy in the Kakheti region, and thus, a significant share of the organic fraction of wastes generated there is likely to be agricultural in origin. 7 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Municipalities in the Kakheti region are responsible for the collection and transport of municipal solid waste. This service is contracted to local municipal LLC companies based on annual tenders. Wastes are collected from common bins located near households and businesses, and transported to landfills. Transport distances are considerable shorter than in the Adjara AR, and service coverage is more extensive (See Table 3). The median coverage is 50% in the Kakheti region compared with 21% in the Adjara AR. Fees charged for waste collection services range from .2 to .5 GEL per month for households, and can range as high as 25 Lari per m3 for business. Collection rates are low, and the user fees account for a small fraction of the municipal budget for solid waste management (SAO 2015). The average and median budgetary expenditure on waste management services (per person who received these services) is 18.3 and 18.9 GEL per year respectively. A comparison of these figures for the Adjara AR in Table 1 shows that per capita waste expenditures are significantly lower in the Kakheti region than in the Adjara AR. In fact, the maximum expenditure, 35.7 in the Sagarejo municipality of the Kakheti region is less than the median in Adjara AR of 38.0. Since 2012 the Solid Waste Management Company of Georgia (SWMCG), a state-owned company, has been given the responsibility of managing municipal waste sites/landfills in the Kakheti region (and all other regions in Georgia except for the Adjara AR and the city of Tbilisi). There are 6 official landfills in the Kakheti region. The SWMCG has been tasked with improving the conditions of these landfills, and beginning to the close them in preparation for the transition to the future period when all wastes from the Kakheti region will be shipped to a regional sanitary landfill. The construction and operation of new landfills will be responsibility of SWMCG, and the collection and transportation of wastes in the new system will be the responsibility of municipal LLCs. No municipally-run recycling or composting programs exist at the present time in the Kakheti region. As in other parts of Georgia, informal networks of individuals scavenge metals and glass from waste containers or unprotected landfills for sale to brokers. Recovery of materials from landfills is actually declining in the Kakheti region, as the landfill perimeters are being secured to prevent the public health concerns associated with un-restricted access to these sites. Scrap metals and plastic resins from producers is also recovered and sold in secondary markets for materials (USAID 2014b). 3. Economic Evaluation of Solid Waste Collection, Removal, and Landfilling This section focuses on the costs of the evolving system for collecting, transporting, and landfilling municipal solid waste in the Adjara AR and Kakheti region. The goal is to develop an estimate of the social costs of this system for comparison to dry-waste recycling and the diversion and processing of organic waste materials. The first order of business is to estimate the local social cost of landfilling municipal solid waste. Then an assessment is made of the social cost of methane, a significant global externality associated with landfilling the organic component of municipal wastes. The cost of municipal waste collection and transport is considered next. The last subsection adds all of these cost categories together to derive the total social cost of landfilling municipal solid waste in the Adjara AR and Kakheti region. 3.1 The Costs of Landfilling Municipal Solid Waste The estimation of the economic costs of sanitary landfilling should embody two dimensions. The first is what the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) refers to as “full cost accounting.” This is a temporal accounting perspective that records all private costs incurred over the landfill lifecycle (USEPA 1997). These costs include those for the initial construction of structures and completing the 8 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia first cell of the landfill, the costs of continuing to add capacity and operating the landfill during its operational period, the costs incurred for closure at the end of the landfill’s life, and the costs for post closure monitoring of the site afterwards -- often for a period of 30 years or more. All these costs should be annualized over the landfill’s operational life in order to render landfilling costs comparable to the costs of other alternatives (USEPA 1997). The second cost concept embodies the term “social cost” in its usual sense; that is, to denote both the “internalized” resource costs of conventional landfill inputs such as capital and labor, that are priced in markets, and the “externalized” environmental costs that are borne by the public without compensation. All these costs need to be included in the economic assessment to provide an accurate measure of landfilling opportunity costs. The external cost of older un-regulated landfills are well-known, while modern sanitary landfills internalize a significant share of these costs. Liners and leachate control systems will prevent water pollution, and daily capping and perimeter barriers will reduce local environmental and public health risks. The anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in landfills generates landfill gases (LFG), which are around 50% methane and 50% carbon dioxide, with trace amounts of non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). The NMOC fraction of LFG includes volatile organic compounds and hazardous air pollutants (USEPA 2015a). However, gas recovery systems when properly operated will destroy around 98% of these compounds. Therefore, these local emissions do not pose significant hazards in well-operated modern landfills. In the Adjara AR and Kakheti region the private charges for landfill disposal currently do not cover the private costs, which are subsidized out of municipal budgets, nor internalize the health and environmental costs associated with the waste disposal. Table 4 indicates average disposal charges, derived by dividing total recorded disposal charges by the total tons of solid waste deposited into landfills. These average charges range from 1.7 GEL per ton in Batumi to 4.47 GEL in Kobuleti, while 4.7 GEL is the average for the municipalities in the Kakheti region. These costs are dwarfed by the average costs per ton for waste collection, street sweepings, and removal. Average disposal charges respectively amount to 1%, 4%, and 11% of the total for Batumi, Kobuleti, and the municipalities in the Kakheti region. Landfill tipping fees are expected to rise in the future to cover most of the relevant costs. These include the opportunity costs of land, the construction cost for sanitary landfill designs, the costs to operate the sanitary landfill, including the landfill gas recovery and leachate control systems, and the cost to close and monitor the landfill after its operating life. In view of landfill capacity limits, the opportunity cost of “air space”– the waste disposal volume in the landfill – is another important cost. Economic gains will result from air space conservation measures such as greater waste compaction, the use of alternative daily covers (which do not take up as much space as daily soil applications) and, of course, lowering deposition rates through recycling or organic waste diversion (Okereke et al, 2006). The economic gain from capacity conservation could be realized in one or of several ways, or in a combination of these ways: as an extension of the landfill life at the current usage rate and planned capacity; as a reduction in the size of the landfill at the current usage rate and planned lifetime; or as an increase of the current usage rate for the current planned lifetime and capacity (reducing the need for waste disposal in other locations). Data for the cost structure of the proposed tipping fee for the new Tsetskhlauri sanitary landfill in the Adjara region are indicated in Table 5 (Hygenia 2009). This fee is quite close to what can be independently calculated from spreadsheets provided by the EBRD (dated 2014) which give a cost of $23.5 per ton, when the air space estimate from Table 5 is added into the equation. Both of these estimates encompass the relevant categories, including the costs of a leachate control system, gas recovery system (which are planned to begin operating in the fifth year) and the annualized costs of 9 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia closure and post closure monitoring. They also includes the capital and operating costs of a materials recovery facility. Without the materials recovery facility, the cost per ton for the Tsetskhlauri landfill using the data from EBRD spreadsheets drops to $20.02 per ton. Land opportunity costs are the only possible cost not included in this cost estimate. No reference to land costs could be found. The land was government-owned before its allocation for landfilling, but such land has an opportunity cost that should be imputed in the economic evaluation (Boardmen et al 1993). For the purpose of this analysis, $20 per ton will be taken as a minimum estimate of the stand-alone costs of sanitary landfilling – that is, the cost without an attached materials recovery facility – in the new waste management regime for the Adjara AR and Kakheti region. For lack of information, this figure is not differentiated between the regions. The estimate can be regarded as a minimum due to the possibility of excluded land opportunity costs and possible site disamenities – for example, associated with noise, odor, and dust – depending on the landfill location. Possible disamenities are not monetized in this analysis.7 It will also be assumed that the benefits of sanitary landfilling – the storage of municipal solid waste in a safe, healthy, and environmentally benign way -- at least cover the $20 per ton disposal costs; that is, that the landfill has a benefit-cost ratio of at least 1. Thus, there are two ways of thinking about the value of displacing a ton of solid waste disposed at the landfill boundary-- for example, through diversion of recyclable materials or organic wastes: (1) as the value of conserved landfill capacity, which yields a landfill cost savings in the amount of $20 per ton, or (2) as the benefit of avoiding improper waste management. The fact that the benefit of avoiding improper waste disposal could be larger than the costs of sanitary landfilling is another reason why the $20 per ton figure provides a minimum statement of value. As a final point, the value of landfill airspace should rise over time as the landfill’s capacity diminishes, and the time horizon for new landfill construction declines (Ready and Ready 1995). Thus, the current tipping fee can be taken to represent the current cost of waste disposal, and this cost should rise over time as landfill capacity declines. 3.2 The Social Cost of Methane Emissions The objective of this subsection is to estimate the social cost of methane emissions per ton of landfilled solid waste. The first step is to determine the methane emissions per ton of organic waste, and then use the waste composition data in Table 2 to estimate the methane emissions per ton of solid waste landfilled in the Adjara AR and Kakheti region. A fraction of these emissions will be captured and flared or used to generate electricity; the residual fraction will affect global climate. Values for the social cost of methane are applied to the residual fraction to generate the social cost of methane per ton of municipal waste landfilled. Methane emissions associated with one ton of municipal solid waste were derived from a study by Matthews and Themelis (2007). The authors found 0.05-0.1 ton of methane (CH4) is emitted per ton of landfilled municipal solid waste. The data can be used to derive an average figure of 0.1670 tons of methane per ton of organic waste, which can then be applied to the organic composition of solid 7 The Australian productivity commission value these disamenities at about one Australian dollar (year 2007) per ton as a default case (Covec 2007). Additionally, environmental control systems at sanitary landfills may not be 100% effective, e.g, there may be some leachate leakage. The additional costs imposed by these factors are likely to be relatively minor compared to the other costs considered in this study, and they are difficult to monetize. 10 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia waste data for the waste composition studies conducted for the Adjara AR and the Kakheti region noted in Table 2. Methane emissions from modern landfills are being managed through landfill gas (LFG) capture projects. The new sanitary landfills in Georgia will control methane emissions through these system. According to the US EPA, landfill gas recovery systems should recover from 50% to 95% of the methane generated, with an average value of around 75% often assumed (USEPA 2015a). A study by Amini et al (2012) found collection efficiencies modeled from 35% to 85%, with actual field measurements of 25% to 80%. In this study, we will consider sensitivity analysis for different landfill gas (LFG) recovery efficiencies. Starting in 2008, the social cost of carbon (SCC) has been used by federal agencies in the United States to estimate the value of reducing carbon emissions, and monetizing the benefits of avoided carbon emissions using the SCC estimates has become standard practice in regulatory impact analyses (cost-benefit analyses of federal regulations). The SCC estimates are produced by integrated assessment models that link general equilibrium models of the economy with global circulation models. This method has just started to be used to estimate the social cost of methane (SCM) emissions. For the first time in 2015, and EPA used the social cost of methane (SCM) to value the reduction of methane emissions in regulatory impact assessments of two regulations, one on emissions standards for landfills (USEPA 2015a), and the other on emissions standards from the oil and gas industry (USEPA 2015b). The estimates the EPA used for the social cost of methane emissions are shown in Table 6. It can be seen there that the social cost per ton of methane emissions ranges from $509 per ton in 2015 at a 5% discount rate, to $1454 per ton in 2050. The figures are even higher at lower discount rates, and at the 95th percentile of the distribution for the social cost of methane (SCM). Table 7 and 8 shows how these figures translate into costs per ton of solid waste landfilled in the Adjara AR and Kakheti region under a number of different assumptions about LFG recovery, and discount rates. For a 5% discount rate and 80% LFG recovery, the social cost of methane per ton of waste landfilled in the Adjara AR ranges from $7 per ton in 2015 to $19 per ton in 2050. Figures in the Adjara AR (Table 8) are close to the same (but slightly higher) reflecting the slightly higher organic content of municipal solid waste in the Kakheti region. For 60% recovery at the same discount rate, this range goes from $14 per ton to $39 per ton in the Adjara AR, and from $15 to $42 in the Kakheti region. The tables indicate that differences in assumptions about discount rates and landfill recovery effectiveness have a significant effect on the social cost of methane per ton of waste landfilled. In general, it can be seen this cost can be lower than the local environmental cost of solid waste disposal – again assumed to be $20 per ton – or significantly higher. 3.3 The Cost of Waste Collection and Removal The costs of waste collection and transport constitute a significant share of total solid waste management costs in the study region, as they do the world over. The median cost per ton in the Adjara AR is close to 105 GEL 2015, and ranges to as high as about 178 (See Table 9). Costs in the Kakheti region are significantly lower, with a median of about 36 GEL 2015, and a maximum of about 61 (Table 10). For comparative perspective, the GEL figures are converted into U.S dollars using two different exchange rates. The first is the nominal exchange rate in midyear 2015, which was 2.25 GEL per dollar. The second is the World Bank’s purchasing power parity (PPP) index for the latest year 11 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia available (2014), which is .85 GEL.8 The PPP exchange rate is used by development agencies for cross-country income comparisons, and by the World Health Organization to standardize cost comparisons of global health interventions.9 The purchasing power parity (PPP) index, as the name implies, takes into account cost of living differences among countries. So for example, a PPP of .85 GEL implies that an expenditure of .85 GEL on a waste management project in Georgia would impose the same loss in forgone consumption of goods and services in Georgia as the expenditure of one dollar in the United States would impose in the United States. The PPP exchange rate tends to be more stable than the nominal exchange rate, which fluctuates frequently. Both rates are used here to broaden the perspective. Using the nominal exchange rate for conversion, the median waste collection and transport costs for the Adjara Autonomous Republic is about $47, with a maximum of about $79. The corresponding figures using the PPP exchange rates are about $123 and $210 (See Table 9). These ranges place the economic opportunity costs for waste collection and transport as high in the United States and the EU. For the Kakheti region, the median cost using nominal exchange rates is about $16, with a maximum of about $27; the corresponding figures using the PPP index are about $42 and $72 (Table 10). These figures are significantly lower than for the Adjara Autonomous Republic, but can still equal or exceed the landfill tipping fee of $20 per ton. The costs for waste hauling also differ in the Adjara AR and the Kakheti region, due in part to differing distances to landfills. The median cost in the Adjara AR to collect and haul one ton of waste one kilometer is about 3.13 GEL. The comparable figure for the Kakheti region is about 1.75 Gel. To gain additional insight into the variation of waste collection and transport costs in the study regions, a regression analysis is conducted using the following flexible functional form:10 T C = a + b1(Q - Q ') + b2 (Q - Q ')2 + b 3 (D - D ') + b 4 éë(Q - Q ')(D - D ') ù û+ d + e In this equation, TC is the total annual cost (in GEL 2015) for waste handling incurred by each municipality; Q is tons per year of waste handled in each municipality; Q’ is the arithmetic mean of tons of waste handled per year across all municipalities; D is the average waste transport distance for each municipality; and D’ is the arithmetic mean of the transport distances across all municipalities. The variable d is a dummy variable that takes the value of “1” for the Adjara AR and “0” for the Kakheti region. The final term, e , is an error term. Given the variation in the level of waste disposal capital among municipalities, the indicated equation is interpreted as representing a longer-term cost function. Cost data to estimate the equation were taken from the first columns from Tables 9 and 10; while data on tons per year of waste disposed and distance were taken from Tables 1 and 2. The parameter estimates are shown in Table 11. Even though there are only 14 observations, the model fits the data well, and the coefficient estimates are significant by the usual standards.11 The positive estimates 8 Using the World Bank definition, a “purchasing power parity conversion factor is the number of units of a country's currency required to buy the same amounts of goods and services in the domestic market as a U.S. dollar would buy in the United States.” See http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.PPP. 9 See http://www.who.int/choice/costs/ppp/en/. 10 It is common to represent variables in natural logs for the estimation of waste disposal cost functions (See Kinnaman 2010). The quadratic form is used here to allow waste collection costs to be separated from transport costs. This separation will be useful for this analysis. 11 Data for Keda was not used in this estimation, because the cost per ton-km is an extreme outlier, raising questions about the accuracy of the data for Keda. 12 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia for the b1 and b2 parameters suggest that the incremental costs of waste collection increase with b b additional volume, while the positive parameter estimate for 3 and 4 suggest that waste transportation costs increases in distance and quantity. The estimate for the dummy variable suggests that, holding all other variables constant, annual waste handling costs are 349,230 GEL higher in the Adjara AR than in the Kakheti region. b b b The magnitudes of 1 and 4 coefficients are worthy of discussion. The estimate 1 =74.05 can be interpreted as the incremental cost in GEL 2015 of collecting an additional ton of waste for a settlements located close to the mean in the sample for tons of waste handled in a year. The incremental collection costs will be higher or lower for settlements that are less close to or further b = 2.13 from this average. Additionally, the coefficient 4 implies that it will cost on average about $2.13 GEL to transport one ton of waste one kilometer under the current waste management system, holding other factors constant. 3.4 The Total Cost of Solid Waste Disposal The three cost categories are combined to provide an estimate of the total incremental cost of disposing of an extra ton of municipal solid waste in the Adjara AR and Kakheti region. Given the number of uncertain parameters, such as for methane recovery rates, the figures presented are meant to be informative rather than conclusive. Table 12A shows the total costs for the municipalities in the Adjara Autonomous Republic (excluding Keda) using the nominal exchange rate to generate the dollar values for waste collection and transport costs.12 Total costs range from about $68 per ton to close to $112 per ton, with a median value of about $84. About $12.5 of the total cost is for the global externality associated with methane emissions; the median local cost of waste disposal without the methane emissions value computed drops to about $72. The measures of opportunity costs in dollars are significantly higher using purchasing power parity exchange rates. Costs range from about $126 per ton to $242 per ton, with a median value of about $169 (Table 12B). The global value of the public good is a smaller fraction of the total costs using PPP exchange rates given the additional weight accorded to the opportunity costs of local waste collection and disposal. Turning the Kakheti region, Table 13A shows the comparison using nominal exchange rates for the GEL to dollar conversions. The median value for the total cost of solid waste disposal in the Kakheti region is about $49 per ton with the methane emissions externality, and about $36 without it. The fraction of the total cost in the Kakheti region owing to local waste collection and transport (about 31%) is significantly lower than in the Adjara AR (about 61%). Table 13B shows the cost comparison using purchasing power parity exchange rates. In this case, the median is about $75 per ton, with a range from about $45 to $105. Methane emissions account for from 13% to 30% of the total value. 12 The waste collection and disposal costs are the average costs computed from data rather than the predictions from the estimated equation, since the point estimates from the equation may not be very precise in such a small sample. The equation offers the insight that marginal costs are increasing, however, implying that the incremental waste collection and transport costs of additional waste disposal will be higher than the average figures discussed, or lower for waste disposal decreases. The figures discussed for landfill disposal cost and methane generation may be interpreted as long-run marginal costs. 13 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Again with the caveat that there are many uncertain components of the analysis, this information can be taken as a benchmark for a cost comparison to solid waste management options that will divert some recyclable or compostable material from the municipal solid waste stream. We turn to an economic evaluation of these alternatives in the next section. 4. Economic Evaluation of Source Separation and Recycling Policymakers in industrialized countries have increasingly promoted the diversion of recyclable material from the solid waste stream, and the recycling and reuse of recoverable materials is now an integral part of the solid waste management system in the United States, and even more so in the European Union. Goals for recycling and reuse have grown increasingly ambitious, while the methods available for waste reduction or processing have become more diversified and costeffective. Within the European Union, there is significant variation in both waste-management policies and progress toward policy goals, but some objectives are uniform across the region; for example, the goal to recycle at least 50% of municipal solid waste by 2020 in all member states. Several countries have already surpassed this goal, while others will be unable to reach it without increasing their recycling rates significantly (EEA 2013). Diverting biodegradable material from the waste stream has also become increasingly common in the European Union. By 2010, landfilling of biodegradable waste in Austria, Belgium, Denmark and Germany was negligible or eliminated entirely (EEA 2013). In the United States, waste-management policies vary widely from one jurisdiction to another. In 2011, California’s legislature and governor promulgated the goal of recycling 75% of municipal waste by 2020, an increase from about 50% from 2013 (CalRecycle 2015). A number of cities in Florida and California have developed waste diversion goals of 75% or more. Recycling programs vary in the degree to which materials separation and recovery are conducted locally, in proximity to the neighborhood of homes and businesses which generate the solid waste streams, or done more centrally at materials recovery facilities. When separated locally, further processing and preparation of the materials is often done by recycling companies, although materials recovery facilities (MRFs) are frequently used to process single-stream or dual-stream sourceseparated recyclables.13 In the United States, there has been a shift away from local sorting to more centralized sorting, as policies have promoted greater recycling rates, and MRF technology has advanced in response to mandates to increase recycling volumes (Fickes 2009). In contrast, European policy continues to promote source separated waste collection and local composting alternatives (Eunomia 2002). In the country of Georgia, a mixed-waste recovery facility has been constructed at the Rustavi landfill, and one is planned for the Tsetskhlauri sanitary landfill in the Adjara AR.14 At present, there are no municipally-sponsored waste recycling programs based on local source separation and collection. Data is available for a preliminary economic evaluation of the centralized materials recovery facility planned for the Tsetskhlauri landfill, and we start with this analysis. We then consider how the valuation of life-cycle CO2 emissions reductions associated with materials recovery affects the 13 Single-stream refers to the co-mingling of all recyclable material together for processing, whereas “dual-stream” refers to a variety of ways in which recyclables can be separated into two groups for processing, such as paper and cardboard versus containers, or glass versus everything else. 14 A “mixed-waste” MRF accepts municipal solid waste and separates out the recyclables from the “wet waste” component of the waste. The wet-waste are disposed of in a landfill, or sent to a composting facility, and the residual recyclables are further sorted and processed. 14 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia assessment. We next consider the economic value of local source separation and recycling systems, also including the valuation of life-cycle CO2 emissions reductions. Lastly, we assess the benefits and costs of locally diverting organic material from the waste stream for use as a composting material, incorporating a valuation of the associated methane emissions reductions. 4.1 Separation at Materials Recovery Facilities Centralized materials recovery facilities (MRFs) are relatively capital intensive and therefore reduce the labor costs associated with sorting recyclables (KC1 2009a). The downside is sorting inefficiency and some materials contamination. These issues reduce the recyclables that are recovered in marketable condition from centralized sorting operations (Eunomia 2011). To pay off the larger capital costs, the material throughput at MRFs needs to be high and the flow of the waste relatively stable. As is the case with landfills, it is most economic to size MRFs to serve a regional area so that input streams can be combined to maximize volumes. Single stream recycling, in which recyclables are sorted from wet wastes and delivered to MRFs for further sorting, is particularly suitable for efficient operation. To date, the MRFs in operation or planned in Georgia are mixed-waste facilities. Evaluating the data for the planned MRF at the Tsetskhlauri sanitary landfill in the Adjara AR shows that this MRF adds an incremental cost of about $3.50 per ton above landfill disposal costs.15 This figure is generated by annualizing the itemized capital costs for the MRF using a 5% discount rate (the same rate as the EBRD employed in the analysis of the other parts of the landfill project), and then adding this annualized capital cost to the MRF’s variable costs.16 Information was available on the projected solid waste stream entering the landfill/MRF. The projected waste stream was discounted at 5%, and then re-annualized. Dividing the annualized cost stream by the annualized waste stream gives an accurate measure of the incremental capital and operating costs of the MRF averaged over all of the waste that enters the landfill.17 Waste diversion goals, as well as MRF operational efficiencies, are often expressed in terms of the fraction of waste diverted out of the landfill per ton of waste collected. For example, if in a given period half of the waste that enters a MRF is sorted, this fraction is half recyclables, and half of the recyclables are recovered, the overall waste diversion fraction would be approximately 12.5%. Information for the expected recovery efficiency of the MRF at the Tsetskhlauri sanitary landfill is not available. To get some insight, we considered the operational characterizes of six mixed-waste MRFs in California and Florida in the United States. The materials recovery fraction per ton of MSW entering these MRFs ranged between 23% and 34%, with a mean of about 27% (KCI 2009b). Given the fraction of organics and unrecyclable material that might be expected in a ton of MSW in this region, doubling these figures would give a rough approximation of the fraction of recyclables recovered per ton of recyclable material in the waste. However, there are more organics in the waste stream in Georgia than in the United States, and MRFs in Georgia are both less capital and labor intensive than those in the United States. For example, the annual throughput at the U.S. MRFs averaged 1.5 thousand metric tons per worker per year. The equivalent computation for the MRF at the Tsetskhlauri sanitary is 3.8 in the first year of operation when 42 thousand tons of throughput are expected to be processed, increasing to 11.3 by the end of the landfill life in year 35 when 125 15 This estimate is derived from spreadsheets from the EBRD that itemize the costs of the landfill. Some variable cost categories were clearly related to the materials recovery facility, others seemed likely to be allocable between the materials recovery facility and the operation of the landfill itself. For these categories, a distinction was made between labor costs and other costs. Labor costs were allocated 80% to the materials recovery facility, and 20% to the landfill, while the other cost categories – maintenance, energy use, etc – were allocated 80% to the landfill and 20% to the materials recovery facility. 17 Estimating discounted tons disposed over the landfill lifetime is the conceptual equivalent of discounting future lives saved from a health, safety, or environmental health intervention. The latter procedure is standard in the economics literature. See Krutilla et al (2015). 16 15 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia thousand tons should be processed.18 This is on the assumption that the work force does not expand over time. The fewer resources deployed at the MRF at the Tsetskhlauri sanitary landfill per unit of throughput suggests its recovery efficiency will be significantly lower than the MRFs being operated in the United States. The values of materials produced per ton of throughput at the MRF for different assumptions about materials recovery efficiency are illustrated in Tables 14 and 15 for waste compositions characteristic of the Adjara AR and the Kakheti region, respectively.19 Price estimates are based on materials prices that obtained in the Euro zone in the middle of 2015.20 The low and high bound estimates are derived for each of the materials categories shown on the assumption that their composition is skewed respectively to lower valued constituents and to higher valued constituents.21 For the higher bound assumptions about prices, Tables 14 and 15 suggest that incremental cost of $3.50 per ton from using the MRF at the facility will be paid off from the sale of recyclables for any of the recovery rates. In fact, the midpoints of the ranges shown will be sufficient to pay off these costs. For the low bound assumptions, the costs will be paid off at recovery rates between 15% and 20%. Because the value differences among commodities are larger than the range of recovery rates shown, different assumptions about the waste constituents has a larger impact on value of materials recovery than assumptions about recovery efficiencies. Indeed, the high bound assumption about commodity values will pay off the $3.50 cost of the MRF at a recyclable recovery rate in the neighborhood of 2.5%. This variation suggest the need for further study of the composition of waste streams to derive better estimates of the benefits of operating MRFs in Georgia. The diversion of recyclables from the waste stream also conserves landfill capacity. However, a significant degree of recovery is necessary for these savings to be significant, given the size of the organic component of waste streams. Diverting 5% of the recyclables from the waste stream will save about 43 cents per ton and 35 cents per ton of waste disposed respectively in the Adjara AR and the Kakheti region. Diverting 40% of the recyclable stream would save about $3.4 per ton in the Adjara AR, and $2.75 in the Kakheti region. In short, higher diversion rates are needed for the avoided landfilling opportunity costs alone to get close to paying off the costs of constructing and using a MRF. However, in conjunction with value recovered from selling recyclables, avoid landfilling costs increase the chances that the value of centralized sorting of recyclable material will cover the costs. 4.2 The Social Value of Reducing CO2 Emissions through Recycling Life-cycle energy savings and CO2 emissions reductions will accrue from recycling. According to the U.S. EPA, less energy is used in recycling many materials than would be needed to replace them through primary production—that is, by extracting and processing raw materials such as ores, timber, or petroleum (USEPA 2006, 2015).22 In particular, the energy and CO2 emissions savings for many plastics, metals, and paper products are potentially large enough to result in measurable net benefits. 18 Derived from spreadsheet data used by EBRD in their economic evaluation of the Tsetskhlauri landfill. See Appendix for the computational procedure. 20 If recovered recyclables are exported, there may be an economic premium for the foreign exchange generated. We did not have the information to monetize the economic effects on net foreign exchange reserves of the various program alternatives. 21 The available waste composition study does not breakdown plastics, glass, and paper into their various constituents, and these constituents have different market value. Low bounds where generated on the assumption that the paper was mixed, the recovered glass green, and the recovered plastic all colored polyethylene terephthalate (PET). High bounds were generated on the assumption that the composition of the mixed paper and glass categories was consistent with the EU average, and all the plastic recovered was high-density polyethylene (HDPE) natural. 22 This is not the case for all materials. Some wood products require more energy to recycle than they do to produce from raw timber, and the energy savings from recycling some other materials (such as concrete) are small enough that the value of energy savings may be outweighed by the labor or transport costs of collecting and processing the material (USEPA 2015, p. 3). 19 16 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Among the major categories of recyclable materials, aluminum appears to provide the greatest benefit, in terms of reduced per-ton energy needs. Recycling of aluminum is often cited as requiring less than 10% of the energy used in its primary production from bauxite (Hutchinson 2008). However, the energy usage figures provided in the latest version of the U.S. EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM) imply a figure closer to 25% (USEPA 2015, pp. 3, 8). This is still a lower fraction of primary-production energy than has been found for any other material, with the possible exception of LDPE (plastic category 4). In addition, it is important to remember that recycling aluminum (and other metals) is logistically simpler than recycling plastics. As shown in Table 16, the value of reducing CO2 emissions per-ton is highest for recycled aluminum, moderate to high for plastics, low for glass, and variable for fibers such as paper and cardboard (USEPA 2006, 2015; Hutchinson 2008; Vlachopoulos 2009; Bühner 2012). Depending on the energy and other resources expended in collection and sorting, recycling of glass in particular may result in negligible benefits, or even a net cost—especially if different colors of glass are allowed to mix before or during collection (Hutchinson 2008). Although some estimates are available for other important waste types, such as electronics or construction materials, there appears to be less information available for them than for “conventional” recyclables (USEPA 2015). Energy-usage estimates for several materials were not available in the most recent WARM documents (USEPA 2015), and were calculated or inferred from other sources. Specifically, energy savings from recycling low-density polyethylene (LDPE) were cited in a 2006 EPA report (USEPA 2006, p. 98), but not in the Waste Reduction Model (WARM) documents. It is possible that either primary production or recycling of this plastic may have become more efficient since 2006; these developments would respectively imply a reduction or increase in the energy savings from recycling, but in the absence of concrete information, no change was assumed. In addition, the estimated energy needed to recycle PVC was obtained from Bühner (2012); this estimate assumed usage of the “Vinyloop” recycling method, which might or might not be feasible at a given facility. Hutchinson (2008) provided an energy-savings estimate of 88% for polystyrene or “styrofoam” (plastic category 6) and concluded that recycling could yield significant benefits if up-to-date methods for processing were more widely adopted; however, this claim could not be substantiated from other sources, and polystyrene was not included in the analysis. Finally, no energy-usage estimates could be found for polypropylene (plastic category 5). Once the potential energy savings of recycling relative to landfilling have been found, their economic impact can be estimated. The averted nominal costs of energy are assumed to be captured in the price of recovered materials, but the averted costs of the associated greenhouse gas emissions are not priced in any market. In Georgia, most electricity is produced from hydropower—except during periods of peak demand in winter—but fossil energy is crucial in meeting the country’s heating and transportation needs (Gvilava & Garibashvili 2014, p. 11). As of 2012, approximately two thirds of Georgia’s energy was consumed in the form of fossil fuels, suggesting that any domestic facility engaged in recycling or primary production would require significant amounts of both renewable and non-renewable energy. In 2012, Georgia consumed a total of 3.2 million metric tons of oil-equivalent of energy, or 37.4 million megawatt-hours (Gvilava & Garibashvili 2014, p. 11). That same year, the country’s estimated greenhouse gas emissions totaled 6.26 million tons of CO2-equivalent (EIA 2016), implying that an average of 0.167 T CO2e were emitted for each MWh of energy produced. Calculations here will rely on the assumption that, even as total energy consumption changes in the future, the degree of Georgia’s reliance on fossil fuels will remain about the same as it has been in recent years. These calculations also assume that primary production and recycling are both carried out within Georgia, and thus are both subject to this emissions-to-energy estimate; however, in reality Georgia imports many finished goods from trading partners such as Turkey and the European Union (European 17 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Commission 2015). The actual emissions associated with those goods’ initial production may deviate from the estimates given here, based on the energy profiles of Georgia’s trade partners, or the extent to which they themselves have incorporated recycled materials into their manufacturing processes. Per-ton estimates of averted greenhouse emissions for each material can be found once energy savings and the carbon intensity of energy have been estimated. Landfilling of some conventional recyclables—particularly paper and cardboard—is likely to result in additional greenhouse emissions as those materials break down; however, such emissions can depend heavily on factors such as landfill design and operation, and are difficult to estimate. The possibility of additional emissions implies that the averted-emissions estimates in this analysis are somewhat conservative. Where averted-emissions estimates are available from other sources, they are generally comparable to the estimates derived here (Hutchinson 2008; Bühner 2012). In order to estimate the economic significance of averted emissions due to recycling, the social cost of CO2 (SCC) must be incorporated into the calculations. For this analysis, estimates were obtained from the report of an Interagency Working Group that has provided SCC estimates for use in the evaluation of federal regulations in the United States (IAWG 2015, p. 3). The estimates given in Table 16 are for a 5% discount rate and the midpoint of the SCC distribution. Estimates at lower discount rates and at the upper of the distribution are higher than those shown. The social value of reducing CO2 emissions will depend on the amount of recyclable material recovered, and its composition. Table 17 indicates low and high bounds as function of recovery rates. For example, for 30% rate of recovery of recyclables from the solid waste stream, the social value of carbon emissions reductions at 2015 values would range between $1.5 and $3.41 per ton of waste disposed using the data for the waste stream composition for the Adjara AR, and $1.35 and $3.29 for the composition data for the Kakheti region.23 Table 17 also adds the value recovered from the sale of recyclables into the picture. At the current time, the GHG benefits are smaller than the market value of recyclable material. The sum of these two plus the avoided landfilling costs mentioned above – which lie between the low and high bounds for the GHG benefits -- raises the probability that the value of recovering recyclables will exceed the $3.50 per ton cost. 4.3 Decentralized Source Separation and Recycling Local source separation and recycling programs can be structured in many ways. The highest degree of sorting requires waste generators to separate out materials such as metals, glass, plastics, and paper, and then to deposit them, possibly with additional separation, into different bins at local collection centers (See Table 18). At the other end of the spectrum, single stream systems remove all recyclables from municipal waste without any further sorting (Table 19). The co-mingled recyclables are then sent to a single-stream MRF. Dual-stream permutations include the separation of fiber from containers, or the separation of glass from all other recyclables. It is also possible to sort recyclables into groupings for glass, fiber, and all other recyclables. The range of permutations is nearly unlimited. Local source separation avoids the capital and operating costs of MRFs, and improves the quality of the recyclable material delivered to manufacturers compared to materials sorting at MRFs. As noted before, the benefits of recycling material relative to conventional waste disposal are the value of the materials produced, the avoided costs of landfilling, and the life-cycle value of CO2 emissions reductions. Local recycling will also avoid solid waste handling costs, but also imposes collection costs 23 The average greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits for fibers and plastics are conservative, because averted emissions were only computed for the sub-categories that clearly corresponded to specific types of recyclables with known GHG effects. There might be other recyclable materials with GHG effects that are not represented in the analysis. 18 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia plus the costs of local sorting. On balance, the costs of source separation and recycling are likely to exceed the cost savings from avoided waste handling (Covec 2007). Therefore, we treat this category as a net-cost, and list the other benefit categories in Table 20. The values there are consistent with previous discussion of the price of materials and the CO2 emissions savings for materials recovery facilities. We do not have information about the costs of the source separation and collection of postconsumer waste in Georgia, because these programs do not now operate in the country. But as noted, experience from other countries suggests that that the local sorting and collection of recyclable materials is likely to be more costly than conventional waste disposal (Covec 2007). These extra costs accrue from additional complexity in scheduling collections, and additional trips due to the differential densities of recyclable materials. Doubling collection costs is within the range of empirical estimates found in the literature. Under this assumption, current disposal costs can be taken as the net incremental cost when recycling operations displace conventional waste disposal. Tables 21A and 21B compare these costs with the total value of recovered materials using nominal and purchasing power exchange rate conversions respectively for the Adjara AR. Table 21A shows that the value of all materials but brown glass and green glass (and mixed glass, which has a negative value, and is therefore not shown) are larger than an incremental cost equal to the current median waste collection and transportation cost for the region. Using the purchasing power exchange rates to proxy for opportunity costs, the materials exceeding the median cost are aluminum cans, and several categories of plastics. More materials are economic to recover, under the stated assumptions, for the municipalities like Khulo and Kobuleti that have lower collection costs. Turning to the Kakheti Region in Tables 22, it is evident that the value of all materials is higher than median net cost of 15.8 using the nominal exchange rate (Table 22A), while all materials with the exception of green glass have greater value than the median net cost of 41.8 (Table 22B). Again, there is variation given the cost differences shown among municipalities. Under our assumptions, source separation and recycling in the city of Telavi provide net economic value for any of the materials categories. Some conclusions can be cautiously drawn from these comparisons. First, source separate and recycling aluminum will yield net economic value under any assumption, given the amount by which the value of aluminum exceeds any conceivable local handling cost. Second, if the net costs of local source separation and recycling are in fact proportional to current waste disposal costs, as the above analysis assumes, recycling will be more economic in the Kakheti region than in the Adjara AR, because waste handling costs are lower in the Kakheti region. Thirdly, there is a hierarchy of material values and, on the assumption that it is no more costly to locally separate such high valued materials as aluminum cans and HDPE plastics as any other kind of material, focusing recycling programs first on the high valued materials is most likely to be economically beneficial. Since there will be a learning curve associated with instituting local recycling programs, it would make sense to start up programs that target recovery of relatively high valued materials during the initial stages when programmatic costs are likely to be high. As a caveat, local recycling programs will impose costs for education and outreach, as well as administrative costs, which are not captured in this assessment. Additionally, any local costs that might be incurred for the densification of materials, or local processing by recycling companies, are not explicitly included in the analysis. Finally, commodity prices fluctuate widely, and have declined in the past six months with slowing economic growth in China (an important export market for all commodities, including recyclables). This is another reason why focusing on relatively high valued materials would be the most prudent course for starting up local recycling programs in Georgia. 19 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia 4.4 Organic Waste Diversion and Composting The processing of organic material is a necessary part of an integrated waste management system when waste diversion goals are above a certain threshold. For example, in response to a municipal mandate, the city of San Jose California constructed a MRF to divert 75% percent of the municipal waste from a regional landfill. Both single-stream and mixed-waste sorting lines are used in this facility. Of the municipal waste entering this MRF, 50% ends up as compost and 25% is separated into a stream of marketable recyclables (KCI 2009b). Organic materials can be converted into useful products and/or energy through several technologies, including anaerobic digestion, pyrolysis and gasification systems, and aerobic composting methods (Environment Canada 2013). Composting methods biodegrade organic matter through self-heating; this process can be conducted at relatively low cost compared to the other methods. For this reason, a composting process is likely to be the most economically efficient method for processing organic wastes in Georgia. We focus on benefits and costs of processing organic wastes through composting in the remainder of this subsection. Turning first to the benefit side, the diversion of organic wastes for the production of compost offers several advantages. First is the savings in conventional waste disposal costs, including the costs of landfilling organic wastes. Diverting organic wastes from landfills also reduces methane emissions and the production of leachates. If the composting is done locally, the costs of hauling organic waste out of the locality will be avoided. This can be a significant benefit for waste management system based on regional landfills, or those servicing remoter regions. Additionally, local composting will reduce the wet-waste component entering mixed-waste MRFs, improving their operational efficiencies and the quality of recovered materials (KCI 2009a). Lastly, of course, compost itself has value in a number of applications, for example, upgrade marginal agricultural soils, or to control soil erosion. If produced in proximity to a landfill, compost can be used as alternative daily cover for capping the face of an active landfill cell. The composting processes reduces the volume and mass of organic material, with the amount of compaction depending on a number of physical parameters. Mass reductions commonly range from 10% to 30% and are smaller than volume reductions (Boa et al 2008; Breitenbeck and Schellinger 2004). This compaction means that a ton of compost will displace more than a ton of solid waste, multiplying the economic effect. If it takes 1.2 tons of organic waste to generate one ton of compost, for example, producing a ton of compost will reduce the amount of waste that needs to be collected, hauled, and landfilled by 1.2 tons. This same multiplier applies to methane emissions at the landfill. Given that charges on municipal waste disposal are levied per ton, we use the mass reduction figures in the computations that follow. Since volume reductions are larger than mass reductions, using the mass reduction to represent the compaction ratio may understate the benefits of composting. Assuming the composting mass compaction ratio ranges from 1.1 to 1.3, landfill costs avoided per ton of compost produced will range from $22 to $26 based on the $20 figure stated before for landfilling costs. Associated methane reductions are shown in Table 23. Depending on the compaction ratio, the discount rate, and the efficiency of landfill gas (LFG) recovery, methane benefits in 2015 will range from $19 per ton of compost produced to $203 per ton. Over time, these benefits will increase as the real social cost of methane (SCM) increases. Diverting organic material locally for compost will reduce demands for the collection of municipal solid waste, a clear benefit, but will also impose some costs for separation and collection. Regarding the latter, a report by the consulting firm Eunomia states the following: 20 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia It is not straightforward to estimate the costs of implementing separate collection schemes where they do not already exist. The normal presumption is that the costs of waste collection will increase significantly as a consequence of the introduction of separate collection systems. However, this need not be the case for compostable wastes (Eunomia 2002, pdf page 123). The reasons for this are several. First, home composting will avoid collection costs from municipal services entirely. Of course, as is the case for sorting dry recyclables, inconvenience costs exist, but the inconvenience costs for those who choose to recycle or compost are likely to be lower in economic terms than the costs of municipal waste collection.24 Secondly, organic wet wastes are dense. As a consequence, they do not need to be compacted, and can be conveyed to local composting facilities in standard flat bottom trucks rather than more costly compactor trucks. Due to this density differential, it is also possible that trips required per ton of organic waste collected will be less than those required for collecting mixed municipal wastes. For these reasons, and lacking other information, it is assumed that the costs of locally separating and collecting organic material for composting are no higher than the costs of locally collecting municipal solid waste. Under this assumption, the benefits of reducing municipal collection costs by diverting organics for composting are counterbalanced by the costs of collecting the organic wastes for composting, and there is no net-cost cost difference between the two methods on the collection cost dimension. However, displacing municipal waste collection through local composting operations will clearly yield a savings in the costs incurred to transport municipal waste out of the locality. The regression model estimated in Section 3.3 allows these transportation costs savings to be identified. In particular, the b parameter estimate for 4 in Table 11 implies that the marginal transportation costs are constant at about 2.13 GEL for each ton of municipal waste transported one kilometer. To be conservative, we take half of this number, and use it to estimate the per ton transportation cost savings for the different municipalities in the Adjara AR and the Kakheti region given their average distance from landfills for waste hauling beyond six kilometers. That is, we define “local hauling” as 6 km or less, and “transport out of the locality” as hauling distances of more than 6 km. Based on this assumption, the transportation cost savings and other benefits from local composting are shown for the various municipalities in Tables 24A and 24B for the Adjara AR, with the difference between tables reflecting the distinction between nominal and PPP exchange rates. For the nominal exchange rate case, transportation cost savings associated with local composting range from $4.3 in Batumi to $53.9 for Khulo, and overall benefits range from $60.8 to $110.4 per ton. The median transport and total cost savings are respectively 15.5 and 72.0 per ton. For distant municipalities in the Adjara AR such as Khulo and Shuakhevi, transportation cost savings dominate the other benefits shown, and the overall benefits of a ton of locally produced compost are near or above $100 per ton. These same patterns hold with PPP exchange rates, but the transportation cost component is larger, and the total economic value of local composting is higher, ranging from $67.8 per ton to close to $200 per ton. Although transportation cost savings for remoter municipalities are substantial, the fraction of total benefits accounted for by reducing methane emissions is also significant, and over 50% for municipalities like Batumi, where transport distances are relatively short. The relative magnitude of methane emissions benefits is less when transportation cost savings are measured using purchasing power exchange rates. Tables 25A and 25B show the benefits per ton of compost for the Kakheti region. The value of local composting is Kakheti region is lower than in Adjara, because transportation costs savings are lower. The average hauling distance is 6 km or less for the City of Telavi and Sagaregjo, so there are no 24 Indeed, in developed countries, there is often a net consumer benefit from recycling. A study of recycling in New Zealand found a consumer willingness to pay for recycling programs on the order of several hundred dollars per ton (Covec 2007). 21 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia transportation cost savings for these municipalities from local composting under our assumptions. Benefits of locally-produced compost are around $56.50 per ton, and are comprised entirely of the value of avoiding landfilling costs (39% of the benefits) and reduced methane emissions (61% of the benefits), given the benefit categories monetized. The benefits of locally produced composting for the other municipalities are higher, particularly when PPP exchange rates are used to convert local transportation cost savings. In this case, the median benefit is $67.8 per ton, with a maximum of $86.5 per ton in Akmeta. Against these benefits are the cost of composting. These costs will reflect the scale and capital intensity of the composting process (Pandyaswargo and Premakumara 2014). Assuming the least capital intensive approach, the use of windrows, labor and/or mechanical inputs will be required to aerate the windrows, to maintain temperatures and moisture content (which may require wetting piles), to control porosity, and to adjust the carbon to nitrogen ratio. If food wastes are windrowed, they need to be mixed and ground with the woody or vegetative matter. Sufficient land is required for composting windrows, which may constrain composting in some locations. Data from the European Union suggest that compost processing costs for low-technology windrowing can be on the order of $28 per ton (Eunomia 2002). Presumably, costs in Georgia could be lower than this figure due to lower labor costs. For the Adjara AR, this figure is less than the sum of the median avoided landfilling and transportation cost savings of $37.5 when transportation cost savings are converted using nominal exchange rates, and significantly less than the median sum of $63.1 when transportation cost savings are expressed in dollar terms using PPP exchange rates. Note also that the benefit in the avoided cost of methane of $34.5 alone more than covers this cost. In the Kakheti region, transportation cost savings are less than in the Adjara AR, as noted. The median sum of transportation cost savings converted at nominal exchange rates and avoided landfilling costs ($26.3) does not quite cover compost processing costs. Using PPP exchange rates, the median sum of local benefits, $33.3, is greater than the $28 per ton compost processing cost. Again, the value of avoided methane emissions alone covers the assumed compost processing cost. Some benefits and costs are left out of this analysis. On the benefit side, we do not know what the monetary value of the produced compost would be in the region. Local composting will also reduce CO2 emissions from long range waste hauling, which we have not monetized. On the cost side, there will be transaction costs to inform local stakeholders about composting design alternatives, to administer composting programs, and to integrate local composting systems into the rest of the waste management system. Composting also imposes some negative environmental effects, most significantly, odors and the release of bioaerosols when material is being aerated, e.g., by turning windrows. Composting facilities need to be designed, and work practices established, to minimize these side effects. Finally, if composting operations are conducted at more central locations, the benefits of avoided transportation costs could be less significant than indicated. 5. Policy Issues The analysis shows that the benefits of materials recycling and the composting of organic wastes in Georgia have the potential to cover their costs. In this section, we discuss the policy implications. As a caveat in advance, conclusions should be drawn cautiously given the parameter uncertainties in key components of the evaluation, and the relatively generic level at which the analysis is conducted. The analysis is also based on a static picture: the system that currently exists. Routes for waste hauling, travel distances, and waste transit costs that emerge in the new regional-landfill based system will presumably differ significantly from the status quo ante. Costs of alternatives waste 22 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia management options may also change over time from “learning curve” effects as the new system develops. Finally, an integrated waste management system is interconnected by definition, implying that evaluations of solid waste management alternatives cannot really be conducted independently. The costs and benefits of the individual system components will depend on the way they are integrated into the overall solid waste management framework. Notwithstanding these qualifications, the analysis gives best estimates from the available information, and leads to some logical conclusions and policy implications. These can be divided into two categories: economic evaluation issues, and stakeholder effects. 5.1 Economic Evaluation Issues The economic evaluation shows that that recycling, reuse, and composting processes have the potential to increase the net-benefits of the solid waste management system in Georgia. This conclusion is based on the internalization of waste disposal costs through tipping fees that accurately represent social costs; the possible value of recyclable materials; the possibility of reducing waste collection and transportation costs through local composting operations; and the external benefits of reducing CO2 and methane emissions. Regarding the valuation of methane emissions, the recent evolution of benefit valuation procedures for the assessment of U.S. federal regulations could be a game changer for the economic evaluation of alternative waste disposal practices worldwide. The high social cost of methane (SCM) provides significant benefits for aerobic composting processes that avoid landfill gas emissions. Although landfill gases are increasingly being captured, recovery systems are not 100% efficient. Estimates of the social cost of methane are high enough that even relatively high landfill gas recovery efficiencies allow significant value to be achieved from diverting organic wastes from landfills. One key economic issue facing the future waste management policymakers will be the relationship between local recycling or composting programs and the operation of landfill-based MRFs. The simultaneous operation of local recycling systems and the MRFs raises the possibility of both complementarities and inefficiencies in the system. As noted, separating out wet wastes from recyclables, which effectively is accomplished by single stream recycling systems, will improve the recovery efficiencies at mixed-waste MRFs (KCI 2009b). Reducing the volume of paper in the waste stream could also raise MRF operating efficiencies, and improve the quality of marketed fiber products. Paper and cardboard sustain damage when mixed with municipal waste, lowering their market value. However, a high degree of decentralized sorting in which most material is sent to recycling companies will reduce the supply of recyclables to MRFs, decreasing capacity utilization rates. Lower capacity utilization rates will raise the costs of materials recovery operations at MRFs (KCI 2009a). Moreover, reducing recyclables in the waste stream at MRFs will reduce labor productivity, as workers will have to spend more time to recover the same volume of recyclable material. On the other hand, if materials recovery efficiencies are constrained by the size of the labor force at the MRFs, delegating some recycling to local programs might enhance recovery efficiencies in the system overall. A potential advantage of landfill-based MRFs is the flexibility to adjust recycling rates to commodity price fluctuations. Effectively, a landfill-based MRF produces two outputs: waste disposal services, and recovered materials. The production of these two outputs can be varied as economic conditions change -- as is the case with private firms which produce joint outputs. Local recycling programs may not have the same degree of flexibility to adapt to changing economic conditions. 23 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia A related issue is the need to rationalize the waste transportation system. A somewhat unexpected finding was the high cost of waste collection and transport, particularly in the Adjara AR. The opportunity costs imposed for waste collection and transport in the Adjara AR are as high or higher than those in many regions of the United States and Europe. Given that waste service coverage and hauling distances will both increase in the evolving waste management system, the efficient rationalization of waste collection and transport will be important for future success. High waste collection and disposal costs afford an opportunity to integrate local composting into the system, which would relieve some of the cost burden now falling on municipal waste collection services. 5.2 Stakeholder Effects Key to the successful implementation of alternative waste management practices in Georgia will be the financing of the system, and the reconciliation of stakeholder interests. As noted, the internalization of social costs and the expansion of waste disposal coverage will increase the cost of solid waste management in the region. The incidence of these costs will therefore be crucial to achieving policy objectives in the waste management sector. The distribution of waste collection, hauling costs, and tipping fees among waste generators, municipal tax payers, and the national government is an important issue that needs to be addressed. As noted above, integrating local composting into the system could help reduce waste collection burdens, reducing pressure on municipal budgets for service provision. How fees might be used to incentivize programmatic objectives is also an issue to consider. Communities with recycling and composting programs often charge differential waste collection or tipping fees to encourage separation of materials, or to incentivize composting, or to increase the operational efficiency of MRFs. Fee structures for alternative services will need to be developed in the new system with both their incentive and revenue implications in mind. Reductions in CO2 and methane emissions qualify as global public goods. The benefits of reducing methane emissions through composting are quite significant in the analysis. Under quite conservative assumptions, a ton of compost will reduce methane emissions in 2020 with a present value in 2015 of $34.5 per ton, and this benefit will rise over time as the social cost of methane increases. As such, the reduction of methane emissions provides an opportunity to mobilize support from the international community to help finance composting programs in Georgia. There is significant past experience with the international finance of investments in less developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A December 2015 query of the project database for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) showed there were 7685 registered projects, 1002 of which are explicitly related to waste handling and disposal. These are primarily landfill gas capture projects. There were three waste handling and disposal projects related to composting, two smallscale projects in Pakistan from 2009 and one large-scale project in India from 2012. Linking a series of local composting projects into a regional or national program could be fruitful strategy for mobilizing international support. The goal would be to solicit emissions reductions credits for the program, which would then be rebated to local actors to help defray costs and to encourage additional investments. 6. Conclusions and Recommendations 24 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia This report has provided an economic assessment of solid waste management alternatives in Georgia. Over a reasonable range of assumptions about technical and economic parameters, the analysis shows that recycling and local composting programs have the potential to be economically efficient relative to conventional solid waste collection and disposal. These results are premised on the assumption that waste disposal costs are internalized through tipping fees that accurately represent social costs; that recovered recyclable materials have sufficient market value; and that local composting operations can be used to reduce municipal waste collection and transportation costs. The external benefits of reducing CO2 and in particular, methane emissions, will add value to recycling and composting programs. The analysis shows that the costs of conventional waste collection, transport, and disposal are quite high, particularly in the Adjara AR. The median sum of these costs in the Adjara AR is about $72 per ton of waste disposed when costs expressed in GEL are converted to dollars using nominal exchange rates, and about $156 per ton when GEL figures are converted using purchasing power exchange rates. These costs are as high or higher than costs for waste disposal in some regions of the United States and Europe. The median in the Kakheti region is significantly lower, about $36 per ton using nominal exchange rates and about $62 using purchasing power exchange rates. The magnitude of these costs suggest that there is scope for collection and transportation cost efficiency improvements in the emerging waste management system, and that there are significant benefits to avoiding these costs through source separation and collection of recyclables and local composting programs. Additional benefits to recycling and composting include the value of avoided CO2 and methane emissions. The value of avoided CO2 emissions range from 5% to 24% of the total value of materials recovered through recycling programs. These differences reflect both the different market value of materials and the different amounts of energy required for virgin materials production. The value of methane emissions reductions as a fraction of the total value of compost ranges from 17% to 61%. This variation reflects locational differences in the Adjara AR and Kakheti, and which exchange rates are used for conversion. The value of methane emissions in the overall benefits of composting will rise significantly over time as the social cost of methane emissions increase. A key issue facing policymakers is how to optimally integrate the component parts of the waste management system; for example, the balance to strike among programs for source separation and recycling, composting, and materials recovery at regional materials recovery facilities. There can be both complementarities and inefficiencies from the simultaneous operation of multiple components in an integrated waste management systems. Source separating wet wastes from recyclables will improve the materials recovery efficiencies at mixed-waste MRFs, and source separating paper will improve the quality of marketed fiber products. Yet, a high degree of decentralized sorting has the potential to reduce capacity utilization rates at MRFS to inefficient levels On the other hand, if the size of the labor force at MRFs is limited, the source separation of recyclables and local composting programs might enhance recovery efficiencies in the system overall. Without efficiency improvements and optimization of its component parts, the internalization of the social costs and the expansion of waste disposal coverage in the new integrated waste management system will raise waste management costs. Thus, financing the system and distributing the cost incidence among stakeholders will be key for successful implementation. Mobilizing international support to help finance the part of the benefits realized that qualify as global public goods could help attenuate these constraints. Linking a series of local composting projects into a regional or national program could be used to solicit methane emissions reductions credits, which could then be rebated to local actors to help defray costs. Given that some of the existing projects under the Clean Development Mechanism are for landfill gas recovery projects, Georgia might also be able to receive credits to help finance landfill gas recovery systems at its regional sanitary landfills. 25 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia The conclusions drawn from this study must be offered cautiously in view of the relatively generic level of the analysis, and parameter uncertainties in key components of the evaluation. The next step to advancing policymaking would be greater clarity about the local contexts and configurations for recycling and composting programs that are likely to maximize net value, and their design and integration into the existing waste management system. To shed light on these issues, site-specific evaluations could be conducted to clarify the particular contexts where the net-value of alternative options is likely to be highest. Piloting and carefully monitoring local recycling and composting alternatives, including the measurement of their performance and economic cost, could generate data for an informed comparison among the many possible options. In this evaluation it would be important to include stakeholder impacts. The effects of alternative fee structures on stakeholder incentives and revenues for program financing would be particularly important to assess. 26 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Tables Table 1: Data for the Adjara AR Percent Service Coverage Transportation Distance (km) Tons Per Year Solid Waste Generated (TPY) Annual Waste Generation Per Capita (Tons) Total Waste Budget Per Person Receiving Waste Collection Service (GEL 2015) Municipality Population Population Density (Population/Km2) Batumi 161,200 2,484 100 15 55,000 0.34 41.9 Kobuleti 93,300 131 45 15-30 10,176 0.11 34.0 Keda 20,600 46 15 140 4,866 0.24 28.2 Khulo 36,100 51 5 100-140 1,620 0.04 72.0 Khelvachauri 62,500 175 26 20 1,550 0.02 13.2 Shuakhevi 22,900 39 6 95 500 0.02 91.0 Average 66,100 488 33 69 12,285 0.13 46.7 Median 49,300 91 21 60 3,243 0.08 38.0 Min 20,600 39 5 15 500 0.02 13.2 Max 161,200 2,484 100 140 55,000 0.34 91.0 Source: USAID (2015). Municipal Waste Management Capacity Analysis in the Adjara AR and Kakheti Region in Georgia, Georgia Waste Management Technologies in Regions. 27 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 2: Composition of Solid Waste in the Adjara AR and Kakheti Region Waste Category Adjara AR (Summer) % Kakheti Region% Paper and cardboard 17.41 10.41 Glass 5.63 4.76 Scrap metal 1.10 1.99 Polyethylene / Plastics 20.10 19.28 Cloth 3.30 5.03 Organic 40.00 43.40 Construction material 2.67 6.39 Material that is subject of special supervision 1.28 1.12 Other type of waste 5.00 7.03 Moisture 3.50 0.56 Source: UNDP (2007). 28 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 3: Data for the Kakheti Region Municipality Population Population Density (Population/Km2 Percent Service Coverage Transportation Distance (km) Tons Per Year Solid Waste Generated (TPY) Annual Waste Generation per Capita (tons) Total Waste Budget Per Person Receiving Waste Collection Service (GEL 2015) Akmeta 42,300 19 50 30 5,037 0.12 11.8 Gurjaani 69,000 82 100 3-38 13,138 0.19 6.5 Dedoplistskaro 30,400 12 70 5-25 13,800 0.45 24.7 City of Telavi 21,800 1,744 100 6 10,740 0.49 26.3 Telavi 70,900 36 20 6-50 1,920 0.03 25.0 Lagodekhi 52,000 58 50 2-28 3,600 0.07 10.0 Sagarejo 60,300 39 25 6 5,900 0.10 35.7 Signagi 43,200 35 30 30 4,380 0.10 19.6 Kvareli 36,900 37 100 3-25 8,200 0.22 5.6 Average 47,422 229 61 18 7,413 0.20 18.3 Median 43,200 37 50 17 5,900 0.12 18.9 Min 21,800 12 20 3 1,920 0.03 5.6 Max 70,900 1,744 100 50 13,800 0.49 35.7 Source: USAID (2015). Municipal Waste Management Capacity Analysis in the Adjara AR and Kakheti Region in Georgia, Georgia Waste Management Technologies in Regions. 29 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 4: Comparison of Transit and Collection Fees to Average Disposal Charges in the Adjara AR and Kakheti Region Waste Collection, Street Average Waste Disposal Percent Percent Cleaning, and Removal Charges Total* Total (GEL 2015 Per Ton) (GEL 2015 Per Ton) Batumi 113.4 99% 1.71 1% Kobuleti 96.4 96% 4.47 4% Regional Average for 36.2 89% 4.7 the Kakheti Region * Total is the sum of waste collection, removal, and street cleaning and disposal charges. 11% Source: USAID (2015). Municipal Waste Management Capacity Analysis in the Adjara AR and Kakheti Region in Georgia, Georgia Waste Management Technologies in Regions. 30 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 5: Structure of Proposed Tipping Fee at the Tsetskhlauri Landfill in the Adjara Autonomous Republic Cost Category GEL 2015 $US 2015 Infrastructure 3.8 1.7 Air space 20.1 8.9 Operation 7.2 3.2 Fixation 15.8 7.0 Storage 2.0 0.9 Sum 48.8 21.7 31 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Year 5% Discount Rate (Average) 3% Discount Rate (Average) 2.5% Discount Rate (Average) 3% Discount Rate (95th Percentile) 2015 509 1,143 1,558 3,116 2020 602 1,350 1,766 3,635 2025 727 1,558 1,974 4,155 2030 852 1,766 2,285 4,674 2035 1,008 1,974 2,597 5,505 2040 1,143 2,285 2,908 6,128 2045 1,350 2,597 3,116 6,855 2050 1,454 2,805 3,428 7,479 Table 6. Social Cost Per Ton of Methane Emissions ($2015) Source: USEPA (2015). Price changes reflect real price increases in the social cost of methane (SCM) over time. 32 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 7. Social Cost of Methane Per Ton of Solid Waste Landfilled in the Adjara Autonomous Republic 80% LFG Recovery 60% LFG Recovery 40% LFG Recovery Year 5% (Average) 2.5% (Average) 5% (Average) 2.5% (Average) 5% (Average) 2.5% (Average) 2015 7 21 14 42 20 62 2020 8 24 16 47 24 71 2025 10 26 19 53 29 79 2030 11 31 23 61 34 92 2035 14 35 27 69 40 104 2040 15 39 31 78 46 117 2045 18 42 36 83 54 125 2050 19 46 39 92 58 137 33 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 8. Social Cost of Methane Per Ton of Solid Waste Landfilled in the Kakheti Region 80% LFG Recovery Year 60% LFG Recovery 40% LFG Recovery 5% (average) 2.5% (average) 5% (Average) 2.5% (Average) 5% (Average) 2.5% (Average) 2015 7 22 15 45 22 67 2020 9 25 17 51 26 76 2025 10 28 21 57 31 85 2030 12 33 24 66 37 98 2035 15 37 29 75 43 112 2040 16 42 33 83 49 125 2045 19 45 39 89 58 134 2050 21 49 42 98 63 148 34 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 9. Average Cost of Waste Collection, Removal, and Street Cleaning in the Adjara Autonomous Republic Waste Collection, Street Cleaning, and Removal (GEL 2015 Per Ton) Waste Collection, Removal, and Street Cleaning ($2015 Per Ton Using Nominal Exchange Rage) Waste Collection, Removal, and Street Cleaning ($2015 Per Ton Using PPP Exchange Rate) Waste Collection, Removal, and Street Cleaning (GEL 2015 Per Ton-Km) 6,236,800 980,518 25,600 128,994 195,400 89,090 113.4 96.4 5.3 79.6 126.1 178.2 50.4 42.8 2.3 35.4 56.0 79.2 133.4 113.3 6.1 93.7 148.2 209.6 7.56 4.38 0.04 0.66 6.31 1.88 1,276,067 Average 162,197 Median 25,600 Min 6,236,800 Max Source: Derived from Table 1. *Does not include street cleaning. 99.8 104.9 5.3 178.2 44.4 46.6 2.3 79.2 117.5 123.4 6.1 209.6 3.47 3.13 0.04 7.56 Municipality Estimated Annual Waste Collection, Removal, and Street Cleaning Costs in 2015 (GEL 2015) Batumi Kobuleti Keda* Khulo Khelvachauri Shuakhevi 35 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 10. Average Cost of Waste Collection, Removal, and Street Cleaning in the Kakheti Region Waste Collection, Estimated Annual Waste Waste Collection, Waste Collection, Removal, and Street Collection, Removal, and Removal, and Street Removal, and Street Cleaning Street Cleaning Costs in Cleaning Municipality Cleaning ($ 2015 Per Ton 2015 ($ 2015 Per Ton Using PPP (GEL 2015 Per Ton) Using Nominal (GEL 2015) Exchange Rate) Exchange Rae) Akmeta 179,155 35.6 15.8 41.8 Gurjaani 408,249 31.1 13.8 36.5 Dedoplistskaro 415,500 30.1 13.4 35.5 City of Telavi 105,000 9.8 4.3 11.4 Telavi* 74,172 38.6 17.2 45.5 Lagodekhi 220,000 61.1 27.2 72.0 Sagarejo 258,600 43.8 19.5 51.6 Signagi 221,000 50.5 22.4 59.3 Kvareli 207,200 25.3 11.2 29.7 Average 232,097 Median 220,000 Min 74,172 Max 415,500 Source: Derived from Table 2. *Does not include street cleaning. 36.2 35.6 9.8 61.1 16.1 15.8 4.3 27.2 42.6 41.8 11.4 72.0 Waste Collection, Removal, and Street Cleaning (GEL 2015 Per Ton-km) 1.19 1.52 2.01 1.63 1.38 4.14 7.30 1.68 1.81 2.52 1.75 1.38 7.30 36 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 11. Coefficient Estimates for Total Annual Costs of Waste Collection and Removal (GEL 2015) Variables Heteroscedastic-Consistent P Values (Pr > t) Parameters Parameter Estimates Heteroscedastic-Consistent Standard Errors a 511869 95231 .0007 74.04819 15.17125 .0014 .00190 .00020567 <.0001 14434 4905.57938 .0186 2.12837 .58233 .0064 349230 152681 .0515 Intercept Q-Q’ b1 (Q-Q’)2 b2 D-D’ b3 (D-D’)*(Q-Q’) b4 Dummy Variable for Adjara AR d R-Squared: .9950 Adjusted R-Squared: .9919 N=14 37 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 12A. Total Social Cost of Collection, Transport, and Disposal of Municipal Solid Waste for the Adjara AR Using Nominal Exchange Rates (Midyear 2015) Waste Collection and Landfill Disposal Costs Social Cost of Methane* Total Transport Adjara AR $2015 Per $2015 per Ton Fraction $2015 per Fraction $2015 Per Fraction of Ton of Total Ton of Total Ton Total Batumi 50.4 0.61 20.0 0.24 12.5 0.15 82.9 Kobuleti 42.8 0.57 20.0 0.27 12.5 0.17 75.3 Khulo 35.4 0.52 20.0 0.29 12.5 0.18 67.9 Khelvachauri 56.0 0.63 20.0 0.23 12.5 0.14 88.5 Shuakhevi 79.2 0.71 20.0 0.18 12.5 0.11 111.7 Mean 52.8 0.61 20.0 0.24 12.5 0.15 85.3 Median 51.6 0.61 20.0 0.24 12.5 0.15 84.1 Table 12B. Total Social Cost of Collection, Transport, and Disposal of Municipal Solid Waste for the Adjara AR Using Purchasing Power Parity Exchange Rates Waste Collection and Landfill Disposal Costs Social Cost of Methane* Total Transport Adjara AR $2015 Per $2015 per Ton Fraction $2015 per Fraction $2015 Per Fraction of Ton of Total Ton of Total Ton Total Batumi 133.4 0.80 20.0 0.12 12.5 0.08 165.9 Kobuleti 113.3 0.78 20.0 0.14 12.5 0.09 145.8 Khulo 93.7 0.74 20.0 0.16 12.5 0.10 126.2 Khelvachauri 148.2 0.82 20.0 0.11 12.5 0.07 180.7 Shuakhevi 209.6 0.87 20.0 0.08 12.5 0.05 242.1 Mean 139.8 0.81 20.0 0.12 12.5 0.07 172.3 Median 136.6 0.81 20.0 0.12 12.5 0.07 169.1 * For 2020, discounted at 5% to 2015; 60% LFG Recovery Fraction. 38 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 13A. Total Social Cost of Collection, Transport, and Disposal of Municipal Solid Waste for the Kakheti Region Using Nominal Exchange Rates (Midyear 2015) Waste Collection and Landfill Disposal Costs Social Cost of Methane* Transport Total Kakheti Region $2015 per Ton Fraction $2015 per Ton Fraction $2015 Per Fraction of $2015 Per Ton of Total of Total Ton Total Akmeta 15.8 0.32 20.0 0.41 13.3 0.27 49.1 Gurjaani 13.8 0.29 20.0 0.42 13.3 0.28 47.1 Dedoplistskaro 13.4 0.29 20.0 0.43 13.3 0.28 46.7 City of Telavi 4.3 0.11 20.0 0.53 13.3 0.35 37.6 Telavi 17.2 0.34 20.0 0.40 13.3 0.26 50.5 Lagodekhi 27.2 0.45 20.0 0.33 13.3 0.22 60.5 Sagarejo 19.5 0.37 20.0 0.38 13.3 0.25 52.8 Signagi 22.4 0.40 20.0 0.36 13.3 0.24 55.7 Kvareli 11.2 0.25 20.0 0.45 13.3 0.30 44.5 Mean 16.1 0.31 20.0 0.41 13.3 0.27 49.4 Median 15.8 0.32 20.0 0.41 13.3 0.27 49.1 * For 2020 , discounted at 5% to 2015; 60% LFG Recovery Fraction. 39 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 13B. Total Social Cost of Collection, Transport, and Disposal of Municipal Solid Waste for the Kakheti Region Using Purchasing Power Parity Exchange Rates Waste Collection and Landfill Disposal Costs Transport Kakheti Region $2015 per Ton Fraction $2015 per Ton Fraction of Total of Total Akmeta 41.8 0.56 20.0 0.27 Gurjaani 36.5 0.52 20.0 0.29 Dedoplistskaro 35.5 0.52 20.0 0.29 City of Telavi 11.4 0.25 20.0 0.45 Telavi 45.5 0.58 20.0 0.25 Lagodekhi 72.0 0.68 20.0 0.19 Sagarejo 51.6 0.61 20.0 0.24 Signagi 59.3 0.64 20.0 0.22 Kvareli 29.7 0.47 20.0 0.32 Mean 42.6 0.56 20.0 0.26 Median 41.8 0.56 20.0 0.27 * For 2020 , discounted at 5% to 2015; 60% LFG Recovery Fraction. Social Cost of Methane* $2015 Per Ton 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 Fraction of Total 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.30 0.17 0.13 0.16 0.14 0.21 0.18 0.18 Total $2015 Per Ton 75.1 69.8 68.8 44.7 78.8 105.3 84.9 92.6 63.0 75.9 75.1 40 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Adjara AR 5% Paper and cardboard Glass Polyethylene / Plastics Total Value Recovered 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Low Price High Price Low Price High Price Low Price High Price Low Price High Price Low Price High Price Low Price High Price 0.20 1.50 0.40 3.00 0.60 4.50 0.8 6.0 1.00 7.50 1.2 9.0 0.02 0.19 0.04 0.38 0.06 0.57 0.08 0.76 0.10 0.95 0.12 1.14 0.86 6.16 1.71 12.31 2.57 18.47 3.42 24.62 4.28 30.78 5.13 36.93 1.08 7.85 2.16 15.70 3.24 23.55 4.32 31.4 5.40 39.25 6.48 47.1 Table 14: Value Recovered at MRFs Per Ton of Waste Throughput For Different Recyclables Recovery Rates, $2015 U.S 41 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 15: Value Recovered at MRFs Per Ton of Waste Throughput For Different Recyclables Recovery Rates, $2015 U.S Kakheti Region Paper and cardboard Glass Polyethylene / Plastics Total Value Recovered 5% 10% Low Price High Price 0.12 0.90 0.02 Low Price 15% 20% 25% 30% High Price Low Price High Price Low Price High Price Low Price High Price Low Price High Price 0.24 1.80 0.36 2.70 0.48 3.60 3.60 0.60 0.73 5.40 0.17 0.04 0.33 0.06 0.50 0.07 0.65 0.65 0.10 0.11 0.98 0.82 5.90 1.64 11.80 2.46 17.70 3.29 23.61 23.61 4.10 4.93 35.41 0.96 6.97 1.92 13.93 2.88 20.90 3.85 27.86 27.86 4.80 5.77 41.79 42 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 16. Social Value of Averted CO2 using the Central Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) Estimates at 5% Material Potential averted GHGs in Georgia (TCO2/T recycled) Value of CO2 Emissions Reductions per Ton Recycled ($2015) for Different Materials and Years* 2015 2020 2025 Aluminum 8.28 102.93 112.29 131.00 Iron/steel 1.11 13.76 15.02 17.52 Glass 0.15 1.81 1.98 2.31 Newsprint 0.91 11.35 12.38 14.44 "Office paper" 0.55 6.78 7.40 8.63 "Mixed paper" 1.11 13.83 15.09 17.60 Cardboard 0.83 10.27 11.21 13.07 Plastic 1 (PET) 1.76 21.89 23.88 27.86 Plastic 2 (HDPE) 2.75 34.18 37.28 43.50 Plastic 3 (PVC) 1.41 17.53 19.13 22.32 Plastic 4 (LDPE) 3.05 37.94 41.38 48.28 Copper 4.49 55.80 60.87 71.01 * Price changes reflect real increases in the social cost of carbon (SCC) over time. 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 149.72 20.02 2.64 16.51 9.86 20.12 14.94 31.84 49.71 25.50 55.18 81.16 168.43 22.52 2.97 18.57 11.10 22.63 16.81 35.82 55.92 28.69 62.08 91.30 196.50 26.28 3.46 21.66 12.95 26.41 19.61 41.79 65.24 33.47 72.42 106.52 215.22 28.78 3.79 23.73 14.18 28.92 21.48 45.77 71.46 36.66 79.32 116.66 243.29 32.53 4.28 26.82 16.03 32.69 24.28 51.74 80.78 41.44 89.67 131.88 43 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 17: Social Value of Averted CO2 Emissions and Recyclables Value Per Ton of Mixed-Waste Processed at Different Recovery Efficiencies Adjara AR Value of Reducing CO2 Gas Emissions (SCC 2015) Value Recovered from the Sale of Recyclables Total Kakheti Region Value of Reducing CO2 Gas Emissions (SCC 2015) Value Recovered from the Sale of Recyclables Total Low 0.25 5% High 0.57 Low 0.50 10% High 1.14 Low 0.75 High 1.70 Low 1.00 High 2.27 25% Low High 1.25 2.84 Low 1.50 High 3.41 1.18 7.65 2.36 15.31 3.54 22.96 4.72 30.61 5.90 38.27 7.08 45.92 1.43 8.22 2.86 16.44 4.29 24.66 5.72 32.89 7.15 41.11 8.58 49.33 Low 0.22 High 0.55 10% Low High 0.45 1.10 15% Low High 0.67 1.65 20% Low High 0.90 2.20 25% Low High 1.12 2.74 Low 1.35 High 3.29 1.03 6.76 2.05 13.53 3.08 20.29 4.11 27.06 5.13 33.82 6.16 40.58 1.25 7.31 2.50 14.63 3.75 21.94 5.00 29.25 6.25 36.56 7.51 43.88 5% 15% 20% 30% 30% 44 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 18. Decentralized Source Separation Local Sorting and Delivery to Collection Location steel cans Metals aluminum Local Collection and Transport Long Range Hauling to End Users from collection areas to local scrap dealers From locality to manufactures or to brokers/recyclers for further processing from collection areas to local dealers or transfer station From locality to manufactures or to brokers/recyclers for further processing from collection areas to local dealers or transfer station From locality to manufactures or to brokers/recyclers for further processing from collection areas to local dealers or transfer station From locality to manufactures or to brokers/recyclers for further processing scrap metal Clear Glass Colored Plastic Grades 1-7, Unsorted or Sorted newspaper magazines Paper cardboard mixed papers 45 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 19. More Centralized Sorting Recycling Process Single-Stream Dual-Stream Delivery to Collection Location Mixed-Recyclables Metals, Glass, Plastic Paper Local Transport Long-Range Hauling Centralized Sorting End-Use To transfer station From transfer station to MRF Sorting and baling at MRF From MRF to manufactures or to brokers/recyclers for further processing To transfer station From transfer station to MRF Sorting and baling at MRF From MRF to manufacturers or brokers/recyclers for further processing 46 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 20. Total Value of Materials Recovery through Source Separation and Recycling ($2015 per Ton) Materials Metals Aluminum Cans Steel Cans Glass Brown Clear Green Mixed Glass Paper and Cardboard Newsprint "Office paper" "Mixed paper" Cardboard Plastics Clear and Light Blue PET Colored PET Plastic 2 (HDPE) HDPE Mixed Color Mixed Plastic Value Recovered (Average Mid Year Price 2015) Value of LifeCycle CO2 Emissions Reductions Fraction of Total Total Value per Ton 0.02 0.16 102.9 13.8 0.09 0.11 1153.9 125.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.46 0.37 0.68 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.04 0.03 0.06 43.7 53.8 29.6 -13.3 0.55 0.73 0.41 0.56 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.28 0.20 0.35 0.29 11.4 6.8 13.8 10.3 0.16 0.07 0.24 0.15 70.4 100.2 57.3 69.3 230.4 0.85 20.0 0.07 21.9 0.08 272.3 85.9 617.0 242.1 156.2 0.67 0.92 0.82 0.77 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.16 0.03 0.07 0.10 21.9 34.4 34.4 27.9 0.17 0.05 0.12 0.14 127.8 671.4 296.5 204.1 Fraction of Total Avoided Landfill Cost 1031.0 91.4 0.89 0.73 20.0 20.0 21.9 32.0 7.8 -35.1 0.50 0.59 0.26 39.1 73.4 23.4 39.1 Fraction of Total 47 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 21A. Total Value of Recyclable Materials versus Collection and Transportation Costs in the Adjara AR ($2015 using Nominal Exchange Rates) Adjara AR Waste Collection and Transport Batumi Kobuleti Khulo Khelvachauri Shuakhevi Mean Median 50.4 42.8 35.4 56.0 79.2 52.8 51.6 Aluminum Cans Steel Cans Brown Glass Clear Glass Green Glass Newsprint Office Paper Mixed Paper Cardboard Clear and Light Blue PET Colored PET HDPE HDPE Mixed Color Mixed Plastic 1153.9 125.1 43.7 53.8 29.6 70.4 100.2 57.3 69.3 272.3 127.8 671.4 296.5 204.1 Table 21B. Total Value of Recyclable Materials versus Collection and Transportation Costs in the Adjara AR ($2015 using PPP Exchange Rates) Adjara AR Waste Collection and Transport Batumi Kobuleti Khulo Khelvachauri Shuakhevi Mean Median 133.4 113.3 93.7 148.2 209.6 139.8 136.6 Aluminum Cans Steel Cans Brown Glass Clear Glass Green Glass Newsprint Office Paper Mixed Paper Cardboard Clear and Light Blue PET Colore d PET HDPE HDPE Mixed Color Mixed Plastic 1153.9 125.1 43.7 53.8 29.6 70.4 100.2 57.3 69.3 272.3 127.8 671.4 296.5 204.1 48 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 22A. Total Value of Recyclable Materials versus Collection and Transportation Costs in the Kakheti Region ($2015 using Nominal Exchange Rates) Kakheti Region Waste Collection and Transport Akmeta Gurjaani Dedoplistskaro City of Telavi Telavi Lagodekhi Sagarejo Signagi Kvareli Mean Median 15.8 13.8 13.4 4.3 17.2 27.2 19.5 22.4 11.2 16.1 15.8 Aluminum Cans Steel Cans Brown Glass Clear Glass Green Glass Newsprint Office Paper Mixed Paper Cardboard Clear and Light Blue PET Colored PET HDPE HDPE Mixed Color Mixed Plastic 1153.9 125.1 43.7 53.8 29.6 70.4 100.2 57.3 69.3 272.3 127.8 671.4 296.5 204.1 49 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 22B. Total Value of Recyclable Materials versus Collection and Transportation Costs in the Kakheti Region ($2015 using PPP Exchange Rates) Kakheti Region Waste Collection and Transport Akmeta Gurjaani Dedoplistskaro City of Telavi Telavi Lagodekhi Sagarejo Signagi Kvareli Mean Median 41.8 36.5 35.5 11.4 45.5 72.0 51.6 59.3 29.7 42.6 41.8 Aluminum Cans Steel Cans Brown Glass Clear Glass Green Glass Newsprint Office Paper Mixed Paper Cardboard Clear and Light Blue PET Colored PET HDPE HDPE Mixed Color Mixed Plastic 1153.9 125.1 43.7 53.8 29.6 70.4 100.2 57.3 69.3 272.3 127.8 671.4 296.5 204.1 50 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia 80% LFG Recovery 5% (average) 60% LFG Recovery 2.5% (average) 5% (average) 40% LFG Recovery 2.5% (average) 5% (average) 2.5% Table 23: Ben efit of (average) Avoi ded Met 30% hane Emis 203 sion s 230 from Prod 257 ucin g 298 One Ton 338 of Com 379 post Percent Mass Reduction /Year* 10% 30% 10% 30% 10% 30% 10% 30% 10% 30% 10% 2015 19 22 57 68 37 44 114 135 56 66 172 2020 22 26 65 77 44 52 130 153 66 78 195 2025 27 32 73 86 53 63 145 171 80 95 218 2030 31 37 84 99 63 74 168 198 94 11 252 2035 37 44 95 113 74 88 191 226 111 131 286 2040 42 50 107 126 84 99 214 253 126 149 321 2045 50 59 114 135 99 117 229 271 149 176 343 406 2050 53 63 126 149 107 126 252 298 160 189 378 447 *Incr easi ng price s reflect rises in the real Social Cost of Methane (SCM) over time. 51 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 24A. Benefits Generated Per Ton of Compost for the Adjara AR Using Nominal Exchange Rates Adjara AR Batumi Kobuleti Khulo Khelvahauri Shuakhevi Mean Median Transport Cost Savings from Local Composting* $2015 per Fraction Ton of Total 4.3 0.07 8.0 53.9 6.6 42.1 23.0 15.5 0.12 0.49 0.10 0.43 0.29 0.22 Landfill Disposal Costs Savings** Social Cost of Methane*** $2015 per Ton 22.0 Fraction of Total 0.36 $2015 Per Ton 34.5 Fraction of Total 0.57 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 0.34 0.20 0.35 0.22 0.28 0.31 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 0.53 0.31 0.55 0.35 0.43 0.48 Total $2015 Per Ton 60.8 64.5 110.4 63.1 98.6 79.5 72.0 Table 24B: Benefits Generated Per Ton of Compost for the Adjara AR Using Purchasing Power Parity Exchange Rates Adjara AR Batumi Kobuleti Khulo Khelvahauri Shuakhevi Mean Median Transport Cost Savings from Local Composting* $2015 per Fraction Ton of Total 11.3 0.17 21.3 142.7 17.5 111.4 60.9 41.1 0.27 0.72 0.24 0.66 0.52 0.42 Landfill Disposal Costs Savings** Social Cost of Methane*** $2015 per Ton 22.0 Fraction of Total 0.32 $2015 Per Ton 34.5 Fraction of Total 0.51 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 0.28 0.11 0.30 0.13 0.19 0.23 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 0.44 0.17 0.47 0.21 0.29 0.35 Total $2015 Per Ton 67.8 77.8 199.2 74.0 167.9 117.4 97.6 *Beyond 6 km; **Assuming 10% mass compaction from composting; ***Assuming 10% compaction; for year 2020; discounted at 5% to 2015. 52 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Kakheti Region Akmeta Gurjaani Dedoplistskaro City of Telavi Telavi Lagodekhi Sagarejo Signagi Kvareli Mean Median Transport Cost Savings from Local Composting* $2015 per Fraction Ton of Total 11.4 0.17 6.9 0.11 4.3 0.07 0.0 0.00 10.4 0.16 4.1 0.07 0.0 0.00 11.4 0.17 3.8 0.06 5.8 0.09 4.3 0.07 Landfill Disposal Costs Savings** $2015 per Ton 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 Fraction of Total 0.32 0.35 0.36 0.39 0.33 0.36 0.39 0.32 0.36 0.35 0.36 Social Cost of Methane*** $2015 Per Ton 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 Fraction of Total 0.51 0.54 0.57 0.61 0.52 0.57 0.61 0.51 0.57 0.55 0.57 Total $2015 Per Ton Table 25A: Benefits Generated Per Ton of Compost for the Kakheti Region Using Nominal Exchange Rates 67.9 63.4 60.8 56.5 66.9 60.6 56.5 67.9 60.3 62.3 60.8 *Beyond 6 km; **Assuming 10% mass compaction from composting; ***Assuming 10% compaction; for year 2020; discounted at 5% to 2015. 53 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Table 25B. Benefits Generated Per Ton of Compost for the Kakheti Using Purchasing Power Parity Exchange Rates. Kakheti Region Akmeta Gurjaani Dedoplistskaro City of Telavi Telavi Lagodekhi Sagarejo Signagi Kvareli Mean Median Transport Cost Savings from Local Composting* $2015 per Fraction Ton of Total 30.0 0.35 18.2 0.24 11.3 0.17 0.0 0.00 27.6 0.33 11.0 0.16 0.0 0.00 30.0 0.35 10.0 0.15 15.3 0.21 11.3 0.17 Landfill Disposal Costs Savings** $2015 per Ton 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 Fraction of Total 0.25 0.29 0.32 0.39 0.26 0.33 0.39 0.25 0.33 0.31 0.32 Social Cost of Methane** $2015 Per Ton 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 Fraction of Total 0.40 0.46 0.51 0.61 0.41 0.51 0.61 0.40 0.52 0.48 0.51 Total $2015 Per Ton 86.5 74.7 67.8 56.5 84.1 67.5 56.5 86.5 66.5 71.8 67.8 54 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Appendix: Data For Value And GHG Emissions Savings For Recovered Recyclables Price estimates for recycled materials Eurostat (2016). Material Prices for Recyclates. Brussels: EC. Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/waste/waste-related-topics/prices-for-recyclates - - - Average price for glass, July-August 2015: 57 euro/metric ton (approx. 400,000 T traded/month). From “Price developments and volume trade [sic] of glass waste EU-28.” Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/342366/351919/websheet-glass.pdf Average price for paper, July-August 2015: 144 euro/T (approx. 3 million T/month). From “Price developments and volume trade *sic+ of paper waste EU-28.” Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/342366/351919/websheet-paper.pdf Average price for plastic, July 2015: 373 euro/T (price and volume both varied more than other materials, but monthly volume typically 500,000 to 700,000 T). From “Price developments and volume trade [sic] of plastic waste EU-28.” Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/342366/351919/websheet-plastic.pdf Volume of paper and plastic types traded in EU, July 2015 (values in 2015 euro). Eurostat (2016). EU trade since 1988 by CN8. International Trade [database]. Luxembourg: Eurostat. Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/internationaltrade/data/database?p_p_id=NavTreeportletprod_WAR_NavTreeportletprod_INSTANCE_yMiooQ47vf 0e&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-2&p_p_col_count=1 Material type Unbleached paper/cardboard Bleached, noncolored paper Newsprint, phone directories, etc. Polyethylene (Plastics 1, 2, 4) PVC (Plastic 3) Polypropylene Polystyrene Other plastics Foreign Trade Statistics code 47071000 Internal volume (T) 342,130 External volume (T) 50,317 392,447 12.8% 47072000 65,654 20,914 86,568 2.8% 47073010 202,395 14,915 217,310 7.1% 39151000 87,060 Total fibers: 6,324 3,065,151 93,384 13.5% 39153000 39159011 39152000 39159080 10,489 21,845 6,942 84,757 1,016 1,420 771 22,643 Total plastics: (Bold headings indicate information taken directly from Eurostat.) Total volume 11,505 23,265 7,713 107,400 693,185 Percentage 1.7% Average emissions averted per ton of paper/cardboard recycled: (12.8% * 0.826 T averted/T cardboard) + (2.8% * 0.545 T averted/T office paper) + (7.1% * 0.912 T averted/T newsprint) = 0.186 T Value of averted emissions (5%, 2015): 0.186 T * $11 (2007)/T * $1.14 (2015)/$1.00 (2007) = $2.33/T 55 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Waste Management Strategies For the Adjara AR and the Kakheti Region of Georgia Average emissions averted per ton of plastic recycled: (13.5% * 1.76 T averted/T polyethylene) + (1.7% * 1.41 T averted/T PVC) = 0.262 T Value of averted emissions: 0.262 T * $11/T * $1.14 (2015)/$1.00 (2007) = $3.28/T Environment Media Group (2015). Let’s Recycle: Prices. Beaconsfield, UK (Bucks.): Environment Media Group. - - - - Glass prices, July 2015: average of £5 per ton for green glass, £20.50 per ton for clear. From http://www.letsrecycle.com/prices/glass/glass-prices-2015/ Paper/cardboard prices, July 2015: average of £15 per ton for mixed paper, £47 per ton for white office paper (note: newsprint and cardboard both about £25 per ton). From http://www.letsrecycle.com/prices/waste-paper/merchant-prices/2015-merchant-prices/ Plastic container prices, July 2015: average of £55 per ton for colored PET (lowest), £395 per ton for “HDPE natural” (highest). From http://www.letsrecycle.com/prices/plastics/plasticbottles/plastic-bottles-2015/ o This page also notes that the preferred bale size is 180 cm x 120 cm x 100 cm, with a preferred weight between 200 and 325 kg (may or may not be important). o Prices for all plastics have decreased steadily since July 2015. 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