Article An Empirical Study of Co-movement in Selected Stock Exchanges Ritesh Patel1 Asia-Pacific Journal of Management Research and Innovation 12(1) 23–30 © 2016 Asia-Pacific Institute of Management SAGE Publications sagepub.in/home.nav DOI: 10.1177/2319510X16647293 http://apjmri.sagepub.com Abstract This study explores the co-movement amongst the selected stock exchanges, that is, ‘BSE’, ‘Hangseng’, ‘MXX’, ‘RTS’, ‘BVSP’, ‘FTSE100’, ‘Nikkei’ and ‘NASDAQ’. This study is done using the daily index of all stock markets from 1 January 1998 to 30 June 2015. This study has been done using various tests like ‘The ADF test’, ‘The PP test’, ‘The Granger causality test’ and ‘The Johansen co-integration test’. ADF & PP test show that the series are non-stationary. The result of the Granger causality test indicates that the BSE is Grangercaused by BVSP, FTSE 100, MXX, NASDAQ and the RTS market. The Mexican (MXX) and Russian (RTS) stock exchanges have an impact on Brazilian (BVSP) stock exchange. The Return of the FTSE 100 is affected by BVSP, MXX and NASDAQ, whereas Hangseng is affected by BSE, BVSP, FTSE 100, MXX and NASDAQ. None of the stock exchanges in the study have an impact on the MXX and Nikkei. NASDAQ is affected by BVSP, FTSE 100 and Hangseng markets. The stock exchange RTS (Russia) has the dependency on the FTSE-100 (UK) and Hangseng Stock Exchange. RTS depend on FTSE 100 and Hangseng. The co-integration test is carried out which indicates the long-term relationship amongst all the selected markets. Principal component analysis makes the fragmentation of market in the two regions, the South Asian and the Latin American stock market (BSE, BVSP, NASDAQ, MXX, Hangseng and FTSE 100) and the Northeast Asian stock market (RTS & Nikkei). Keywords Co-movement, developed stock market, co-integration, Granger causality, emerging markets Introduction The stock market has remained an important concern for economists, researchers, investors, governments and policymakers. The stock market is considered as the barometer for the financial growth of a country which reflects the changes in the economy and direction in which it is moving. The Indian stock market has witnessed many global ups and downs in past few years. The capital market is not only affected by ‘domestic factors’ but also directed by ‘international factors’. With a stage of development, every market is affected by other international markets in either a positive or a negative manner. The literature suggests that researchers are trying to comprehensively establish the relationship among various markets. Researchers have made an attempt to study the co-movement among selected markets (Arshanapalli & Doukas, 1983; Cheung & Mak, 1992; Hilliard, 1979). Currently, co-movement of stock exchanges is among the most popular topics in financial research. 1 Assistant To fullfil the present gap, this article examines the comovement among selected stock markets. In this study, the researcher had examined the co-movement of all the selected stock markets covering the period from January 1998 to June 2015. This period was selected considering various global ups and downs, global recession, growth of the world market and emergence of the new market in the world. This study aims at exploring the short- and longterm relationship between the eight stock exchanges. From this present study, FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investor), individual investors, banks, institutional investors, public investors and HNI (High net worth individual) will be benefited and affected. All these stakeholders can take their decision for investment in the overseas market by looking at the short-term and long-term integration of BSE with other selected markets. Moreover, if FIIs, individual investors, banks, institutional investors, public investors, HNI want to reduce the risk of their investment portfolio, they can invest in the stock market of such a country which has negative or very less correlation with BSE. It can help them to reduce the unsystematic risk. Professor, S.V. Institute of Management, Kadi, Gujarat, India. Corresponding author: Ritesh Patel, L.I.G. Second, Block Number -3, Room Number -25, G.I.D.C Colony, Behind Police Chowky, Odhav, Ahmadabad 382415, India. E-mail: [email protected] 24 Asia-Pacific Journal of Management Research and Innovation 12(1) Review of Literature Research Methodology Various studies, directly or indirectly related to the objective of this study, have been reviewed. There are various studies which evaluate various aspects of the co-movement, that is, ‘prices’, ‘return’, ‘risk’, ‘volatility’ etc. Past studies show that the Indian capital market is affected by many international markets. Masih and Masih (2001), in a study of the co-movement among the stock markets of nine developed countries using multivariate analysis, revealed the existence of the short-term and long-term co-movement among the UK, USA and Japanese markets. Forbes and Rigobon (2002) examined the co-movement between stock markets of Hong Kong, Brazil, Canada, Germany and South Africa during various international financial crises and found co-movement among all these markets. Beine and Candelon (2011) carried out a study to check the impact of trade liberalisation of co-movement using panel data framework which revealed a positive impact of trade and financial liberalisation on the co-movement of the stock markets. A study on co-movement between the stock exchanges of Turkey, Russia and Hungary undertaken by Aktar (2009) using unit root test, Granger causality test and vector error correction model found that there is price linkage and co-integration among these three stock indices. A few researchers have carried out a study of co-movement among markets of particular countries. Modi, Patel and Patel (2010) has found that among eight markets of the world, DOWJONES is most influential market and the stock return of each market moves with movement in another market. In a study, Jakpar, Vejayon, Johari and Myint (2013) examined the co-movement of stock market volatility between China and ASEAN-5 countries and found that China’s market is affected by Indonesian, Thailand and the Singapore markets and vice versa, whereas as there is no relationship between China’s market and the Malaysian and Philippines markets. Again, a few researchers have undertaken studies where they found no co-movement among stock markets. For instance, Bekaert, Hodrick and Zhang (2009) have studied the international stock return co-movement by using various risk-based factor models by comparing various markets of different countries, where the researchers have revealed that in both cases there is no strong evidence on co-movement. Scheicher (2001) found that there is less comovement and interrelationship among Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic markets. Researchers have also revealed that these markets are not related strongly with local markets. Alvi (2014) studied the co-movement among Pakistan’s stock market and other nation’s stock market by applying co-integration approach, where the researcher reveals that KSE-100 is not co-moved with any stock market and there is no co-integration among these markets. This article is an attempt to capture the tendency in co-movement of other markets with BSE. This article has used correlation, unit root test, Granger causality test and the Johansen multivariate co-integration test to determine co-movement among selected markets. The ADF and PP test are used to check whether the data are stationary or not. To perform various statistical tests, Eviews 7 and SPSS 20 are used. Here, data are taken from Yahoo Finance, for the period from 1 January 1998 to 30 June 2015. The study covers eight stock exchanges, namely, ‘BSE Sensex (India)’, ‘Hangseng (Hong Kong)’, ‘MXX (Mexico)’, ‘RTS (Russia)’, ‘BVSP (Brazil)’, ‘FTSE-100 (U.K.)’, ‘Nikkei (Japan)’ and ‘NASDAQ (US market)’. All the selected eight stock markets are national indices. These eight countries are selected on the basis of the stage of their economic development. Out of eight countries, four countries, namely, ‘India (BSE Sensex)’, ‘Mexico (MXX)’, ‘Russia (RTS)’ and ‘Brazil (BVSP)’, are developing economies. Moreover, these four countries are the Emerging Markets Index countries. The other four countries, namely, USA (NASDAQ), Hong Kong (Hangseng), the United Kingdom (FTSE-100) and Japan (Nikkei), are developed economies. Moreover, India has good trade relations with these four developed economies. Thus, the Indian market is associated with the market of these countries. These markets have been selected in order to have analyses of comovement of the Indian market with developing and the developed economies. The daily index returns of the stock markets are computed using the following formula: rt = log (p 1 - P0) / P0(1) Where rt is the return from the exchange for day t, p1 and P0 are the closing value of exchange at day t and t − 1, respectively. Objectives of the Present Study The objective of this study is ‘to analyse the long-run and short-run relationship among all selected eight markets’. Unit Root Test To perform Granger causality and co-integration analysis it is important to check whether all the time series variables are non-stationary with unit root I(1) and stationary with unit root I(0) at the difference before using them in cointegration analysis. The augmented Dicky–Fuller test (Dickey, Bell & Miller, 1986) and Phillips–Perron Test (Phillips & Perron, 1988) was used to examine whether the series are stationary or not. The ADF test is used to check whether the series is stationary or not. n D y t = a + byt - 1 + | cD y t - i + u t(2) i =1 Patel25 The appropriate lag order of k in (1) was chosen on the basis of the criteria of Schwarz information criteria. The PP test is used to check whether the series is stationary or not. Dyt = py t - 1 + u t(3) Granger Causality Test Granger (1986) reveals the condition that if the historical values of X predict the Y in an improved manner, then it can be concluded that X causes Y. The variable fails to Grangercause yt if Pr (y t + m | X t) = Pr (y t + m W t)(4) where Pr (y t + m | X t) signifies conditional probability of yt, Xt is the set of all information available at time t, whereas the other part Pr (y t + m W t) indicates the conditional probability of yt obtained by excluding all information on Xt from yt; this set of information is represented as Wt. Causal relations between stationery series can be calculated using the below given formula k k j =1 j =1 k k j =1 j =1 X t = a 0 + | c j x t - j + | b j y t - j + u xt(5) y t = a 0 + | c j x t - j + | b j y t - j + u yt(6) where, k is a suitably chosen positive integer, cj and bj, j = 0, 1,...,k are parameters and a is a constant; and ut is Figure 1. Co-movement of Selected Markets Source: Author’s calculations. disturbance terms with zero means and finite variances. H0 states that Y does not cause X. The lag is determined as per the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). Test of Co-integration Johansen and Juselius (1990) has developed the technique defining a vector of n potentially endogenous variables Zt. Z t = AiZ a - 1 + ... + A K Z t - K + UD t + n et(7) where Ai is coefficients’ matrix, n is a constant, Dt are seasonal dummies orthogonal to the constant term n, and ft is assumed to be an independent and identically distributed Gaussian process. Result and Discussion This Figure 1 shows the momentum of co-movement among selected markets. From the graph it is observed that during year 1998, BVSP, Hangseng, MXX and NASDAQ reported a high growth rate of 143.88 per cent, 77.08 per cent, 80.01 per cent and 86.29 per cent, respectively. During the year 2007, due to global recession, BSE, BVSP, FTSE-100, Hangseng, MXX and NASDAQ markets have fallen down with 51.92 per cent, −41.22 per cent, −32.18 per cent, −47.99 per cent, −24.51 per cent and −42.02 per cent, respectively. In year 2008, BSE and BVSP had ‘grown’ with rate of 78.50 per cent and 82.66 per cent, respectively. All these markets have made recovery during year 2008–2009 and grown, but from year 2010 markets started to fall, which then recovered in the 2011–2014 period. It shows the turbulent movement with ups and downs in last 15 years. 26 Asia-Pacific Journal of Management Research and Innovation 12(1) correlated with BSE. FTSE 100 is highly correlated with NASDAQ (0.79) and vice versa. Nikkei is not much correlated with any market and RTS is highly correlated with BVSP Market (0.79). Descriptive Statistics The descriptive statistics of the eight selected stock markets are reported in the Table 1. Skew is a measure of symmetry. A normal distribution has skewness equal to 0. Kurtosis measures peakeness. Kurtosis of a normal distribution is 3 or more than 3. Here, kurtosis is less than 3.00. The values of kurtosis are shown in the above Table 1. Thus, the descriptive statistics indicate that all the markets are not normally distributed and are characterised as leptokurtic and skewed. Analysis of Top Rise and Fall Below given figure 2 shows Analysis of top rise and fall of all markets. The BVSP has the highest daily rise of 14.72 per cent with the fall of 9.15 per cent, followed by RTS with the highest one-day rise of 12.14 per cent and the fall of 12.76 per cent. In the same line, Hangseng has risen and fallen with 10.61 per cent and 9.58 per cent, respectively. Lowest difference between fall and rise is in FTSE-100 (0.20 per cent), BSE (0.30 per cent), Hangseng (1.03 per cent), NASDAQ (1.35 per cent) and MXX (1.38 per cent). Maximum spread between fall and rise is seen in BVSP (5.57 per cent). Nikkei and RTS are two markets where the average of the 10 highest falls is more than the average of the 10 highest rises. Correlation Table 2 shows the correlation matrix. It is seen from the table that BSE is highly correlated with MXX (0.97), Hangseng (0.91) and BVSP (0.88) and partially positively correlated with NASDAQ (0.65), RTS (0.55) and FTSE 100 (0.51). BVSP is highly correlated with MXX (0.92), whereas Hangseng (0.91) and MXX (0.97) are highly Table 1. Descriptive Statistics Particulars BSE BVSP FTSE 100 Hangseng MXX NASDAQ Nikkei RTS Mean 11,732 37,265 5,604 17,243 21,897 2,578 12,546 1,089 Median 10,858.5 38,405 5,766.6 16,998 20,438 2,339 11,543 1,178 Maximum 29,682 73,517 7,104 31,638 46,357 5,210 20,868 2,487.9 Minimum 2,600 4,761 3,287 6,660 2,856 1,114 7,054 131 Std. Dev. 7,540.1 21,074 843 5,307 14,372 3,264 603.4 906.83 Skewness 0.421 0.007 −0.493 0.060 0.176 1.05 0.53 0.06 Kurtosis 2.01 .43 2.32 1.88 1.46 2.42 .20 1.86 Jarque-Bera Probability 268.1 0.00 391.8 227.99 200.81 394.45 746.18 279.90 207.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BVSP FTSE 100 Hangseng MXX NASDAQ Nikkei RTS 0.88 0.51 0.91 0.97 0.65 0.13 0.55 0.33 0.90 0.92 0.37 −0.15 0.79 0.62 0.46 0.79 0.31 0.09 0.90 0.66 −0.01 0.54 0.58 0.05 0.63 0.28 0.06 Source: Author’s calculations. Table 2. Correlation Matrix Stock Market BSE BSE BVSP 0.88 FTSE 100 0.51 0.33 Hangseng 0.91 0.90 0.62 MXX 0.97 0.92 0.46 NASDAQ 0.65 0.37 0.79 0.66 0.58 Nikkei 0.13 −0.15 0.31 −0.01 0.05 0.28 RTS 0.55 0.79 0.09 0.54 0.63 0.05 Source: Author’s calculations. 0.90 0.12 0.11 Patel27 Figure 2. Major One-Day Increase and Decrease of All Exchanges Source: Author’s calculations. Unit Root Test This study has tested the stationarity of all these series in Eviews 7 econometric software. The ADF and PP test are used to examine the presence of stochastic and deterministic trends in the given data. The result of augmented Dickey–Fuller test and Phillips–Perron test are shown in the Table 3. All the stock exchanges have been tested for the stationarity using the ADF and PP Test. The H0 for the unit root test could not be rejected at 10 per cent significance level. However, at the first difference, we reject the H0 at 1 per cent, 5 per cent and 10 per cent level and it can be concluded that all the series are stationary and integrated in the same order, that is, I(1). Table 4 shows result of the Granger causality test performed on 2,829 cbservations. Table 3. Unit Root Test ADF Test Level Stock Market With Intercept PP Test First Difference With Intercept and Trend With Intercept With Intercept and Trend Level First Difference With Intercept With Intercept and Trend With Intercept With Intercept and Trend BSE −1.2 −1.19 −19.54 −19.56 –1.24 −1.23 –127.36 −127.38 BVSP −1.98 −1.99 −23.77 −23.78 −1.99 −1.97 −130.14 −130.15 FTSE 100 −2.21 −2.24 −116.96 −116.95 −2.25 −2.30 −117.89 117.90 Hangseng −1.88 −1.94 −119.12 −119.11 −1.90 −1.93 −119.12 −119.11 MXX −1.94 −1.96 −36.09 −36.10 −1.97 −1.98 −115.59 −115.62 NASDAQ −1.04 −1.06 −140.21 −140.23 −1.07 −1.09 −139.11 −139.10 Nikkei −2.31 −2.40 −25.54 −25.56 −2.37 −2.42 −163.67 −163.68 RTS −2.02 −2.05 −142.03 −142.02 −2.09 −2.13 −142.66 −142.65 Source:Author’s calculations. Notes: The critical values of ADF and PP test are −3.438, −2.864 and −2.568 with only intercept and −3.970, −3.415 and −3.129 with intercept and trend at 1 per cent, 5 per cent and 10 per cent significance levels, respectively. 28 Asia-Pacific Journal of Management Research and Innovation 12(1) Table 4. Granger Causality Test Cause Caused By BSE p-value BVSP p-value FTSE 100 BSE BVSP FTSE 100 Hangseng MXX NASDAQ Nikkei RTS – 0.20 0.47 25.43 0.65 1.40 0.64 1.22 – 0.81 0.62 0.00 0.51 0.24 0.52 0.29 56.16 – 42.88 229.21 0.43 5.56 0.08 1.13 – 0.00 0.00 0.65 0.03 0.92 0.32 0.000 0.25 – p-value 0.000 0.77 – Hangseng 0.75 0.41 p-value 0.47 79.96 MXX p-value NASDAQ 11.83 0.000 36.16 142.0 1.36 38.20 0.42 2.77 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.65 0.01 0.12 – 1.13 4.29 0.95 3.65 0.66 0.87 – 0.32 0.014 0.38 0.02 3.43 42.45 196.36 – 1.26 1.08 1.05 0.03 0.00 0.00 – 0.28 0.33 0.34 0.10 14.30 102.42 0.04 – 0.87 1.66 p-value 0.000 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.95 – 0.41 0.19 Nikkei 1.82 0.13 1.56 1.10 0.13 1.44 – 1.04 p-value 0.16 0.87 0.21 0.33 0.87 0.23 – 0.35 RTS 3.67 2.64 0.84 0.95 3.08 0.61 0.23 – p-value 0.02 0.02 0.43 0.39 0.46 0.53 0.79 – Source: Author’s calculations. Granger Causality Test Table 4 shows results from pairwise result for all markets. From the F-statistic and the ‘p-Value’, it is observed that return of BSE depends on all the market, except the Hangseng and Nikkei. Return of BVSP depends on MXX and the RTS. Return of the FTSE 100 is affected by BVSP, MXX and NASDAQ, whereas Hangseng is affected by BSE, BVSP, FTSE 100, MXX and NASDAQ. MXX and Nikkei are not affected by any market. NASDAQ is affected by BVSP, FTSE 100 and Hangseng markets. RTS depend on FTSE 100 and Hangseng. It reveals that the current prices advance the forecast ability of stock prices. Cointegration Test Johansen and Juselius (1990) in their research had developed the multivariate approach to trace maximise eigenvalue test to analyse the number of co-integrations. Table 5 gives the co-integration results. Table 5. Johansen Test Hypothesized No. of CE Eigenvalue None (r = 0)* 0.021334 At most 1 (r # 1) 0.017876 68.41737 At most 2 (r # 2) 0.009715 36.74299 95.75366 1.0000 At most 3 (r # 3) 0.005324 19.60077 69.81889 1.0000 At most 4 (r # 4) 0.005004 10.22716 47.85613 1.0000 At most 5 (r # 5) 0.000717 1.418818 29.79707 1.0000 At most 6 (r # 6) 0.000777 0.159010 15.49471 1.0000 At most 7 (r # 7) 0.000785 0.022610 Source:Author’s calculations. Notes: Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level. *denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level. **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values. Trace Statistic (m) 106.2855 Critical Value 0.05 Prob.** 159.5297 0.9843 125.6154 0.9995 3.841466 0.8804 Patel29 Table 6. Highest Eigenvalue Results Hypothesised No. of CE Eigenvalue Max-Eigen Statistic Critical Value 0.05 Prob.** None (r = 0)* 0.021334 37.86814 52.36261 0.6287 At most 1 (r # 1) 0.017876 31.67438 46.23142 0.6784 At most 2 (r # 2) 0.009715 17.14222 40.07757 0.9963 At most 3 (r # 3) 0.005324 9.373617 33.87687 1.0000 At most 4 (r # 4) 0.005004 8.808339 27.58434 0.9958 At most 5 (r # 5) 0.000717 1.259809 21.13162 1.0000 At most 6 (r # 6) 7.77E−05 0.136399 14.26460 1.0000 At most 7 (r # 7) 1.29E−05 0.022610 3.841466 0.8804 Source: Author’s calculations. Here, H0 was ‘There is no co-integration, r = 0’, whereas it was accepted at 5 per cent level as the trace value (λ = 106.28) is lower than the critical value (λ = 159.52). But researcher at r = 1 where the trace statistics value (X = 68.41), the H0 fails to reject as the trace value (λ = 68.41) is less than the critical value (λ = 125.60). In the same line, for two or more co-integrations, in all cases, null hypothesis fails to reject. Hence, the researcher has concluded that there is a long-run relationship amongst the selected stock exchanges. Furthermore, the maximum eigenvalue test is shown in Table 6. Here, the researcher had tested seven H0, that is, the null of nil, of one, of two, of three, of four, of five, of six and of seven co-integration vectors. It is revealed from study that the maximum eigenvalue test supports the co-integration among the selected markets. Figure 3. Component’s Plotting Source: Author’s calculations. Principal Component Analysis Here, the value of KMO test value of the sample is 0.763 which is more than 0.05 and further reveals that the variables measure common factor. The result shows factorable inter-correlation matrix. From the Figure 3, it is can be observed that, in ‘BSE’, ‘BVSP’, ‘NASDAQ’, ‘MXX’, ‘Hangseng’ and ‘FTSE 100’ returns lie on component 1, whereas ‘RTS’ and ‘Nikkei’ returns lie on component 2. Component 1 can be defined as ‘the South Asian’ and ‘the Latin American stock exchanges’ and the component 2 can be defined as ‘the Northeast Asian stock exchanges’. 30 Asia-Pacific Journal of Management Research and Innovation 12(1) Conclusion The present study is performed ‘to find out a relationship between the selected international markets’. This study is carried out by using data of ‘BSE Sensex’, ‘Hangseng’, ‘MXX’, ‘RTS’, ‘BVSP’, ‘FTSE-100’, ‘Nikkei’ and the ‘NASDAQ exchange’ from the period of 1 January 1998 to 30 June 2015. The result of correlation analysis revealed that BSE is highly correlated with MXX (0.97), Hangseng (0.91) and BVSP (0.88) and partially positively correlated with NASDAQ (0.65), RTS (0.55) and FTSE 100 (0.51). BSE is highly correlated with BVSP, Hangseng and MXX as they are the Emerging Markets Index. Moreover, countries like India, Brazil and Mexico are the fastest growing economies which result in good economic relations of India with these nations. NASDAQ, FTSE-100 and RTS are the markets belonging to high-income economies. BSE is moderately correlated with these markets as India is a lower middle-income country. Analysis on the average of top rises and falls shows that BVSP is the market with the highest daily rise of 14.72 per cent, whereas RTS has witnessed the highest daily fall of 12.76 per cent. The result of Granger causality test indicates that BSE depends on all the markets, except Hangseng and Nikkei. Return of BVSP depends on MXX and RTS. Return of FTSE 100 is affected by BVSP, MXX and NASDAQ, whereas Hangseng is affected by BSE, BVSP, FTSE 100, MXX and NASDAQ. MXX and Nikkei are not affected by any of the selected markets. NASDAQ is affected by BVSP, FTSE 100 and Hangseng markets. RTS depends on FTSE 100 and Hangseng. Hence, from the study it is revealed that there is a short-term relationship amongst the selected variables. Outcome of the Johansen co-integration test indicates that there is a longrun relationship amongst the selected stock markets. The results are in line with previous studies conducted by Akhtar (2009), Alexakis (2009), Modi, Patel and Patel (2010), and Patel and Patel (2012a, 2012b). It can be concluded that the following are the reasons for relation between the markets: (i) the economic integration amongst all the selected markets in terms of foreign trade, (ii) the cross-border investments by the selected markets in other countries, (iii) the economic stage of each selected country and (iv) the growth of BSE, BVSP, RTS and MXX as the Emerging Markets Index. The result of the principal component analysis indicates that markets are fragmented in two regions, namely, ‘the south Asian’ and ‘the Latin American stock market’ (BSE, BVSP, NASDAQ, MXX, Hangseng and FTSE 100) and the North Asian Stock market (RTS and Nikkei). References Aktar, I. (2009). 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