THE MAIN EVENT
IN SOCIOLOGY IN THE LAST DECADES :
THE MAIN EVENT
ADVANCES IN DATA COLLECTION
THE 1979
EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEY
HIT MOVIE WITH
WORLD VALUES SURVEY
RYAN O’NEAL
EUROPEAN SOCIAL SURVEY
AND
PROGRAM FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDENT
ASSESSMENT (PISA)
BARBRA STREISAND
HOWEVER,
ACCORDING TO METHODOLOGY TEXTBOOKS
THESE DATA SETS HAVE THE DISADVANTAGE
OF BEING LARGELY CROSS-SECTIONAL
WOUT ULTEE
RADBOUD
UNIVERSITY
NIJMEGEN
THE CONTEMPORARY
MAIN EVENT IN
SOCIOLOGY IS ABOUT
THE STUDY OF
EVENTS :
WHEREAS DYNAMIC DATA WOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE SEVERE TESTS OF HYPOTHESES
THE 2011 TURKU
CONFERENCE
STARRING
ERIK, JANI, JUHO,
MATTS & TORKILD
COLLECTION OF DYNAMIC DATA MADE
GREAT STRIDES TOO
DYNAMIC DATA ARE THE MAIN EVENT
IN SOCIOLOGY
MAYER’S LIFE HISTORIES FOR
VARIOUS BIRTH COHORTS IN
GERMANY
THE GERMAN (PROSPECTIVE) SOCIOECONOMIC PANEL
THE BRITISH HOUSEHOLD PANEL
THE NORDIC REGISTER-BASED-LIFE
COURSE STUDIES
1
2
I CONTRIBUTED TO THE COLLECTION OF MULTI-MOMENT,
MULTI-ACTOR DATA IN THE NETHERLANDS
RETROSPECTIVE SURVEYS IN 1992, 1998, 2000, 2003 AND 2009
MAYER’S LIST OF UNFILLFILLED
PROMISES OF DATA ON
OCCUPATIONAL CAREERS AND
HOUSEHOLD FORMATION AND
DISSOLUTION
ARTICLES AND DISSERTATIONS ON
EDUCATIONAL TRAJECTORIES
COUPLED CAREERS
IS QUITE LONG
CAREER PEAKS
KARL ULRICH MAYER, PROMISES FULFILLED? A
REVIEW OF 20 YEARS OF LIFE COURSE
RESEARCH, ARCHIVES EUROPEÉNNES DE
SOCIOLOGIE, 41(2000)259-282
BEING UNEMPLOYED, REMAINING UNEMPLOYED ?
WHY DOES UNEMPLOYMENT COME IN COUPLES ?
POLITICAL PARTY PREFERENCE OVER THE LIFE COURSE
DRINKING AND SMOKING OVER THE LIFE COURSE
SPORT ACTIVITIES OVER THE LIFE COURSE
THE FILM THE MAIN EVENT WAS SUBTITLED
A GLOVE STORY
CRIMINAL CAREERS HAVE BEEN
STUDIED FOR A LONG TIME BY
CRIMINAL SOCIOLOGISTS
MY PRESENTATION IS NOT A LOVE STORY,
BUT A GLOVE STORY
GOTTFREDSON & HIRSCHI MAINTAIN
THAT CRIME CAREER DATA HAVE
SHOWN THAT THESE DATA ARE NOT
NECESSARY IF TIME SERIES OF
CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA ARE
AVAILABLE (WITH A FEW
RETROSPECTIVE MEASURES)
THERE IS A TENSION BETWEEN CROSSSECTIONAL RESEARCH AND THE DYNAMIC
DATA PARADIGM
DYNAMIC DATA ARE LOGICALLY SUPERIOR
TO CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA
YET THE EXTENT TO WHICH DYNAMIC DATA
TURN OUT TO BE SUPERIOR TO CROSSSECTIONAL DATA IN ACTUAL INSTANCES OF
EMPIRICAL SOCIAL RESEARCH
MICHAEL GOTTFREDSON & TRAVIS HIRSCHI,
THE METHODOLOGICAL ADEQUACY OF
LONGITUDINAL RESEARCH ON CRIME,
CRIM INOLOGY, 25(1987)581-614
CANNOT BE DETERMINED IN ADVANCE
THIS ALLOWS FOR A COMEBACK OF CROSSSECTIONAL RESEARCH
3
4
REGISTER-BASED LIFECOURSE STUDIES IN
PARTICULAR
SO, UPON JUXTAPOSING THESE TWO
COMMENTS ON THE DYNAMIC PARADIGM :
AND THE ANALYSIS OF
DYNAMIC DATA IN GENERAL
HAS SOMETHING GONE WRONG ?
WHAT HAS GONE WRONG ?
AMOUNT TO A PARADIGM WITH
HOW TO MAKE THINGS RIGHT ?
THREE WEAKNESSES
PROGRESS IN SOCIOLOGY AND ANY OTHER
ACADEMIC FIELD OCCURS ALONG THREE LINES :
FIRST WEAKNESS
RESEARCH : DESIGN, DATA COLLECTION, ANALYSIS
THE DYNAMIC PARADIGM
TRUMPETS THAT THE
QUESTIONS OF OTHER
RESEARCH LINES FORM A
TOXIC COCKTAIL OF
QUESTIONS
THEORIES AND HYPOTHESES
PROBLEMS AND DOABLE QUESTIONS
SO, THE DEGREE TO WHICH NEW DATA
TO PROGRESS
AMOUNT
IS TO BE JUDGED BY THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO
PROBLEM ARTICULATION AND THEORY FORMATION
BUT WHEN BREAKING DOWN
COMPOUND QUESTIONS INTO
THEIR CONSTITUENT
QUESTIONS
TO IMPROVE THE DYNAMIC DATA PARADIGM
QUESTIONS AND THEORIES HAVE TO BE BROUGHT IN
IT MANAGES TO LOSE
QUESTIONS
5
6
THE (CROSS-SECTIONAL) QUESTION OF THE DECLINE
OF THE PROPORTION OF A SOCIETY’S POPULATION
THAT IS A CHURCH MEMBER
RIGHT NOW IN THE NETHERLANDS, THE
DYNAMIC PARADIGM IS BECOMING
EXHAUSTED :
IS NOT IDENTICAL TO
HOW DOES SPORT ACTIVITY CHANGE OVER
THE LIFE COURSE ?
THE (DYNAMIC) QUESTION OF THE INCREASE IN
CHANCES THAT A SOCIETY’S CHURCH MEMBERS
LEAVE CHURCH
THE MAIN FINDINGS:
PEOPLE STOP SPORT ACTIVITY
AFTER ALL, CHURCH MEMBERS AND UNCHURCHED
PERSONS MAY DIFFER IN FERTILITY
AFTER LEAVING SCHOOL
AND AFTER STARTING A HOUSEHOLD WITH
SOMEONE ELSE
I TOO THINK THAT THE DYNAMIC QUESTION IS MORE
TO THE POINT THAN THE CROSS-SECTIONAL ONE
HOW NECESSARY ARE FULL HISTORIES OF
SPORTS ACTIVITIES HERE?
BUT DE GRAAF, NEED & ULTEE 2004, AFTER HAVING
ANSWERED THE QUESTION OF CHURCH LEAVING
PERSONS HARDLY EVER START A SPORT
AGAIN AFTER HAVING STOPPED
FORGET THE QUESTION OF AGGREGATING CHURCH
LEAVING INTO PROPORTIONS OF CHURCH MEMBERS
THIRD WEAKNESS
SECOND WEAKNESS
THE DYNAMIC PARADIGM IS IN SEARCH OF RESEARCH
QUESTIONS ABOUT PHENOMENA X, Y AND Z
THE DYNAMIC PARADIGM TAKES THE
METHODOLOGICAL RECIPE OF
THEREFORE, THE DANGER OF ‘EXHAUSTION’ ARISES
‘DO NOT SIMPY COLLECT CROSS-SECTIONAL
DATA, BUT ALWAYS DYNAMIC DATA’
AS AN INTERESTING THEORY
INCOME OVER THE LIFE COURSE
UNEMPLOYMENT OVER THE LIFE COURSE
THAT THEORY IS TOO WEAK AND
UNFALSIFIABLE
CRIME OVER THE LIFE COURSE
SUICIDE OVER THE LIFE COURSE
RELIGION OVER THE LIFE COURSE
THAT THEORY ‘SAYS’ THAT X, Y AND Z
SELF-EMPLOYMENT OVER THE LIFE COURSE
RESULT FROM SOME AGE EFFECT, SOME
COHORT EFFECT AND/OR SOME PERIOD EFFECT
WHATEVER OVER THE LIFE COURSE
7
8
I REGARD GOLDTHORPE'S PROPOSAL
AS NOT SPECIFIC ENOUGH
HOW TO OVERCOME
THESE WEAKNESSES ?
MY PROPOSAL AT THIS CONFERENCE :
AN EXPLICIT GOAL IN REGISTER-BASED
LIFE-COURSE STUDIES
WHICH THEORIES AND
WHICH QUESTIONS ARE
THERE TO TURN TO ?
SHOULD BE THE EXPLANATION OF
CROSS-SECTIONAL STATISTICAL
REGULARITIES
BY SEVERAL NOT FULLY COMPATIBLE
HYPOTHESES EACH SPECIFYING ONE
PROCESS BEHIND THIS REGULARITY
THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT IN THEORY
FORMATION IN SOCIOLOGY IN THE PAST
TWO OR THREE DECADES :
I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM
RATIONAL CHOICE FOR THE DYNAMIC
PARADIGM
THE RISE OF THE RATIONAL CHOICE
APPROACH
RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACHES ARE
SHORT ON PROBLEMS
WOUT ULTEE,
GOLDTHORPE INDICATED POSSIBILITIES
FOR COOPERATION BETWEEN LARGESCALE DATA ANALYSIS AND THE
RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACH
DO RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACHES HAVE PROBLEMS?
EUROPEAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
12(1996)167-180
THE RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACH IS TO
EXPLAIN REGULARITIES ESTABLISHED IN
EMPIRICAL SOCIAL RESEARCH
9
10
I TAKE AS THE PRIME
ALTERNATIVE TO THE
RATIONAL CHOICE
APPROACH IN SOCIOLOGY
WHEREAR GOLDTHORPE PLEADED IN
FAVOUR OF A MARRIAGE BETWEEN RAT
AND QAD:
EVOLUTIONARY
SOCIOLOGY
A MARRIAGE OF RATIONAL CHOICE
THEORY AND THE QUANTITATIVE
ANALYSIS OF LARGE-SCALE DATA SETS
EVOLUTIONARY
SOCIOLOGY IS BEST
EXEMPLIFIED BY LENSKI’S
OEUVRE
I HERE ARGUE IN FAVOUR OF A
MARRIAGE BETWEEN EVSO AND CDDA:
A MARRIAGE OF EVOLUTIONARY
SOCIOLOGY AND THE COLLECTION OF
DYNAMIC DATA
LENSKI’S 1966
MONOGRAPH
POWER AND PRIVILEGE
THERE ALSO IS
BUT IF RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACHES
ARE NOT CONCERNED WITH THE
QUESTIONS OF SOCIOLOGY,
LENSKI’S
TEXTBOOK
HUMAN SOCIETIES,
AN INTRODUCTION
TO
MACROSOCIOLOGY
IS EVOLUTIONISM CONCERNED WITH THE
QUESTIONS OF SOCIOLOGY?
FIRST EDITION IN
1970 WITH AN 11TH
REVISED EDITION
IN 2009
LENSKI’S EVOLUTIONIARY SOCIOLOGY IS
CONCERNED WITH QUESTIONS OF
SOCIETAL INEQUALITY AND CONFLICTS
WITHIN SOCIETIES, SO THAT IS OK !
AND THERE IS
LENSKI’S TREATISE
BUT DOES SOCIETAL INEQUALITY HAVE
ANYTHING TO DO WITH THE PHENOMENA
BIOLOGICAL THEORIES OF EVOLUTION
SEEK TO EXPLAIN ?
ECOLOGICALEVOLUTIONARY
THEORY FROM 2005
11
12
THE GENERAL PUBLIC HAS THE IMPRESSION
THAT SOCIOLOGY IS CONCERNED WITH
EVERYTHING AND ANYTHING AND
THEREFORE WITH NOTHING
SO, THE DYNAMIC PARADIGM WILL
MAKE PROGRESS
TO THE EXTENT THAT THE CROSSSECTIONAL EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES
IT SEEKS TO EXPLAIN
LEADING SOCIOLOGISTS LIKE BOUDON HAVE
FOSTERED THIS IDEA
ARE ATTUNED TO IMPORTANT
SUBPROBLEMS OF
I HAVE COMBATTED IT IN A 1992 DUTCHLANGUAGE TEXTBOOK
SOCIOLOGY’S THREE MAIN QUESTIONS
WITH THE BATTLE CRY
‘SOCIOLOGY HAS THREE MAIN QUESTIONS’
THE DUTCH SCIENCE FOUNDATION IN THE
EARLY 2000s
SOCIOLOGY’S THREE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE :
DECLARED THE RATIONAL CHOICE
APPROACH ‘OUT’
INEQUALITY (FERGUSON, MARX)
RATIONALIZATION (SMITH, WEBER)
AND AWARDED VAST GRANTS FOR THE
EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH IN
ANTHROPOLOGY, BIOLOGY, ECONOMICS,
PSYCHOLOGY AND SOCIOLOGY
WITH EACH MAIN QUESTION COMPRISING A
CLUTCH OF DOABLE QUESTIONS
THIS POLICY STATEMENT AND THE
SPONSORED CONFERENCES I VISITED
COHESION (HOBBES, DURKHEIM)
MADE ME RETHINK MY BATTLE CRY
OF SOCIOLOGY’S THREE MAIN QUESTIONS
AND THE HYPOTHESES OF EVOLUTIONARY
SOCIOLOGY
13
14
THE THREE LESS ABSTRACT MACRO HYPOTHESES
OF EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY
THE TECHNOLOGY HYPOTHESIS
THIS CONTRADICTION IS EXPLAINED BY THE
IDEOLOGY HYPOTHESIS:
THE IDEOLOGY HYPOTHESIS
THE MORE ACTIVIST THE POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
DOMINANT IN (POST)INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES,
THE RESOURCES HYPOTHESIS
THE SMALLER INCOME INEQUALITIES WILL BE
AND THE MORE INTERGENERATIONAL SOCIAL
MOBILITY WILL OCCUR
THESE HYPOTHESES CAN BE DERIVED FROM THE
INDIVIDUAL ASSUMPTION THAT PEOPLE USE THEIR
RESOURCES TO FURTHER THEIR CHANCES IN LIFE
THAT IS RATIONAL CHOICE, BUT EVOLUTIONARY
SOCIOLOGY IS MUCH RICHER IN BRIDGE
ASSUMPTIONS
THIS HYPOTHESIS MORE OR LESS CAPTURES
‘THE NORDIC MODEL’
THESE ASSUMPTIONS ALLOW FOR MOVING FROM
THE MICRO-LEVEL TO THE MACRO-LEVEL
SOMETHING THAT HARDLY HAPPENS IN A PROPER
WAY WITHIN THE RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACH
LENSKI’S TECHNOLOGY HYPOTHESIS:
THE MAIN AND ABSTRACT MACROHYPOTHESIS OF THE EVOLUTIONARY
APPROACH:
THE HIGHER A SOCIETY’S LEVEL OF TECHNOLOGY,
THE MORE A POPULATION OF A
PARTICULAR SPECIES IS ADAPTED TO
ITS ENVIRONMENT
THE LARGER THE DIFFERENCES IN STANDARD OF
LIVING BETWEEN ITS MEMBERS,
THE HIGHER THE REPRODUCTIVE
SUCCESS OF THIS POPULATION WILL BE
THE LESS INTERGENERATIONAL STANDARD OF
LIVING MOBILITY,
AND THE LESS INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY AS TO
RESOURCES MAKING FOR A HIGHER STANDARD OR
LIVING
HERE WE HAVE THE AGE-OLD FIGHT
ABOUT DARWINISM
THE ISSUE OF WHETHER ADAPTATION
CAN BE DEFINED AND MEASURED
INDEPENDENT OF REPRODUCTIVE
SUCCESS
THIS HYPOTHESIS IS CONTRADICTED BY RESEARCH
RESULTS COMPARING AGRARIAN AND INDUSTRIAL
SOCIETIES
15
16
THE ADAPTATION OF A
POPULATION TO ITS
ENVIRONMENT IS INDICATED
BY THE LEVEL OF A
SOCIETY’S TECHNOLOGY
THIS IS SPECIFIED IN BRIDGE
ASSUMPTIONS OF
EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY :
FOOD OBTAINED BY HUNTING
AND GATHERING
FOOD OBTAINED BY
WORKING GARDENS WITH
HOES
THIS TABLE IS FROM LENSKI’S HUMAN SOCIETIES, page 70
AND MAINLY USES MURDOCK’S ETHNOGRAPHIC ATLAS
FOOD OBTAINED BY
PLOWING FIELDS
THE SHIFT FROM ANIMATE TO
INANIMATE ENERGY IN
(POST)INDUSTRIAL
SOCIETIES
IN 1970 I COULD READ THIS TABLE
BUT IT TOOK ME DECADES TO SEE THE PARAMOUNT
IMPORTANCE OF THIS TABLE FOR ECOLOGICALEVOLUTIONARY THEORY
FIGURE TAKEN FROM LENSKI, ECOLOGICALEVOLUTIONARY THEORY, page 84
IT ANSWERED THE MAIN QUESTION OF THIS THEORY,
IT WAS A TABLE ABOUT REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS
THERE ARE VARIOUS INDICATORS FOR THE
REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS OF POPULATIONS
QUESTIONS ABOUT REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS
MAY BE VIEWED ALS QUESTIONS ABOUT
RATIONALIZATION PROCESSES
A LARGER POPULATION
BUT WEBER NEVER WAS CONCERNED WITH
POPULATION DENSITY
A HIGHER POPULATION DENSITY
A LONGER LIFE SPAN OF THE AVERAGE POPULATION
MEMBER
SO, THE EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH MADE ME
DISCOVER NEW SUBPROBLEMS OF
RATIONALIZATION
LESS STARVATION OF POPULATION MEMBERS
A BETTER HEALTH FOR THE AVERAGE POPULATION
MEMBER
OR PERHAPS EVEN A NEW MAIN QUESTION:
POPULATION SIZE AND GROWTH
MORE OFF-SPRING (REACHING THE AGE OF
REPRODUCTION)
17
18
DOES EVOLUTIONARY THEORY BYPASS
INEQUALITY QUESTIONS ?
INEQUALITY QUESTIONS FOLLOW UP ON
THE CORE OF EVOLUTIONARY THEORY
SO, I LIKE THE EUROPEAN VALUES
SURVEYS AND OTHER CROSSSECTIONAL STUDIES COMPRISING A
RANGE OF COUNTRIES
IF THERE IS A ‘STRUGGLE FOR LIFE’
OUTCOMES OF STRUGGLES ARE TO BE
MEASURED AS THE UNEQUAL OUTCOMES
OF COMPETITIONS BETWEEN THE
MEMBERS OF SOCIETIES
SOCIOLOGY IS ABOUT SOCIETIES IN
THE PLURAL AND THESE DATA SETS
INVOLVE A LARGE NUMBER OF
SOCIETIES
THESE STRUGGLES ARE NOT SIMPLY
ABOUT LIFE AND DEATH
THEY ARE ABOUT ANY SCARCE
RESOURCE
INCLUDING HEALTH AND INCOME
I AM A SOCIOLGIST
BUT THEN, OF COURSE, THE
OVERARCHING QUESTION OF THE
EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEY WAS OR IS
AND SOCIOLOGY IS ABOUT SOCIETIES IN
THE PLURAL
WHY DO PEOPLE NOWADAYS DO THE
THINGS THE POPE FORBIDS THEM TO DO?
SO I WANT COMPARABLE DATA FOR
DIFFERENT SOCIETIES
THAT IS A SOCIETAL QUESTION RESTING
ON FALSE AND MISLEADING
SUPPOSITIONS
AT FIRST SIGHT I DO NOT WANT DYNAMIC
DATA ON INDIVIDUALS
AND IF I WOULD WANT DYNAMIC DATA, I
WANT DYNAMIC DATA ON SOCIETIES
19
20
SOCIOLOGY HAS BEEN POISONED BY THE IDEA
THAT IN THE END SOCIETIES ARE MADE UP OF
NOTHING BUT INDIVIDUALS
AND IT IS SILLY TO EXPLAIN
ATTITUDES TOWARDS DIVORCE BY A
PERSON’S CURRENT MARITAL
STATUS
THIS IS AN UNHELPFUL REDUCTION OF
SOCIOLOGY’S QUESTIONS AND THEORIES TO
PSYCHOLOGY
ACCORDING TO A DATA SET THAT
DOES NOT INDICATE WHETHER THIS
PERSON’S MARRIAGE IS THE FIRST,
SECOND OR THIRD ONE
I DO NOT REDUCE SOCIETIES TO INDIVIDUALS
I WANT ARGUE THE OTHER WAY AROUND :
HUMAN SOCIETIES ARE SPECIAL CASES OF
OTHER SOCIETIES
AND WHETHER THIS PERSON HAS
BEEN COHABITING WITH OTHER
PERSONS THAN THE CURRENT
SPOUSE
AFTER ALL, HUMANS ARE ANIMALS
AND ANIMALS LIVE IN SOCIETIES
THESE SOCIETIES ARE CALLED POPULATIONS
‘SOCIETIES CHANGE BY COHORT REPLACEMENT’
MAYER’S LIFE COURSE DATA
ARE ON GERMANY, THAT IS,
ONE COUNTRY ONLY
ALTHOUGH UPON THE BIRTH OF A NEW COHORT
ALL MEMBERS OF SOME OLDER BIRTH COHORT
DO NOT DIE OUT IMMEDIATELY
THEY ARE DATA AT THE
INDIVIDUAL LEVEL
COHORTS ARE ADDITIONS TO WHAT IS LEFT OF
OLDER COHORTS, TOGETHER FORMING A
POPULATION OR SOCIETY
OF COURSE, THEY PERTAIN TO
NON-OVERLAPPING BIRTH
COHORTS TOO
AN IMPORTANT HYPOTHESIS, UNTIL NOW
NEGLECTED WITHIN THE DYNAMIC PARADIGM
SHOULD BE:
BUT ARE DATA FOR DIFFERENT
COHORTS A PROPER
SUBSTITUTE FOR DATA FROM
DIFFERENT SOCIETIES ?
WITHIN POPULATIONS BIRTH COHORTS
COMPETE WITH ONE ANOTHER
YES
ON MARKETS FOR JOBS
BUT ALSO IN ELECTIONS FOR SECURITY
SCHEMES FOR YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT AND
OLD-AGE PENSIONS
21
22
SO, THE MORE BIRTH COHORTS A DYNAMIC
DATA SET FOR ONE SOCIETY COMPRISES,
THE MORE POSSIBILITIES THERE ARE FOR
TESTING HYPOTHESES ON ‘SOCIETAL
DIFFERENCES’
RONALD
INGLEHART
CULTURE
SHIFT IN
ADVANCED
INDUSTRIAL
SOCIETIES
MAYER’S DATA SET INVOLVES SEVERAL
BIRTH COHORTS
AND HYPOTHESES ABOUT STRIFE BETWEEN
BIRTH COHORTS
1990, PAGE 85
MAY BE TAKEN AS NEW ONES OBTAINED BY
GOING BACK TO GENERAL EVOLUTIONARY
THEORIES
IF SOCIETIES CHANGE BY COHORT
REPLACEMENT, TO WHAT EXTENT ARE
DYNAMIC DATA PARAMOUNT?
THE RESULTS OF INGLEHART BECOME
EVEN MORE PERSUASIVE
NOT A LOT
UPON LEARNING THAT THE STABILITY OF
THE OVERALL SCORES OF PERSONS ON
THE ITEMS MEASURING
(POST)MATERIALISM OVER A THREEMONTHS PERIOD IS ABOUT 0.5
INGLEHART’S 1971 THESIS OF A SILENT
REVOLUTION IN EUROPEAN VALUES
(A SHIFT FROM MATERIALISM TO POSTMATERIALISM)
AND THAT IN A THREE-YEAR PANEL THE
CORRELATION BETWEEN THE SCORE OF A
PERSON IN YEAR ONE AND THE SCORE IN
YEAR THREE IS ABOUT 0.5 TOO
HAS BEEN HEAVILY CRITICIZED AS
BYPASSING THE AGE-COHORT-PERIOD
DIFFICULTY BY FIAT
YET A LOT MAY BE LEARNED BY STACKING
CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA SETS FROM
VARIOUS YEARS
A PANEL STRETCHING FROM 1970 TO 1988
WOULD BE A WASTE OF MONEY
23
24
TO WHAT EXTENT ARE DYNAMIC DATA TO
BE PREFERRED TO CROSS-SECTIONAL
DATA?
ONE MORE TIME: WHY DYNAMIC DATA ON TOP OF
CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA?
THE TRUISM OF POLITICAL SOCIOLOGY:
IN THE FIELD OF SOCIETAL STRATIFICATION SOME
SCHOLARS HOLD
THAT FROM A LARGE SOCIETAL INCOME
INEQUALITY AT ONE PARTICULAR MOMENT
THE SIZE OF THE FLOATING VOTE DOES
NOT EQUATE THE PROPORTION OF
FLOATING VOTERS
IT CANNOT BE INFERRED THAT
INTERGENERATIONAL INCOME MOBILITY IS WEAK
YET THE FIRST PANEL STUDIES DURING
ELECTION SURVEYS, UNDERTAKEN BY
LAZARSFELD,
AND WE HEAR OF THE HYPOTHESIS THAT STRONG
INEQUALITY MOTIVATES PEOPLE TO MOVE UP
SHOWED THAT THE FINAL VOTE OF
PERSONS UNDECIDED AT THE
BEGINNING OF A POLITICAL CAMPAIGN
COULD BE PREDICTED PRETTY WELL
FROM THEIR BACKGROUND FACTORS
AND THE HYPOTHESIS THAT SOCIETIES WITH
STRONG INEQUALITIES PROVIDE POOR PEOPLE
WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES TO BECOME RICH
HOWEVER, A RECENT OECD STUDY SHOWED THAT
AGAIN: WHY DYNAMIC DATA ON TOP OF CROSS-SECTIONAL
DATA?
INCOME INEQUALITY IS LARGE AND INCOME MOBILITY
LIMITED IN (SAY) THE UNITED STATES
THE EXAMPLE OF UNEMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
WHEREAS INCOME INEQUALITY IS SMALL AND INCOME
MOBILITY WIDESPREAD IN (SAY) FINLAND
IF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN A COUNTRY DOES NOT
CHANGE BETWEEN T1 AND T2
THIS DOES NOT IMPLY THAT THE PERSONS WHO WERE
UNEMPLOYED AT T1 ARE SO STILL IN T2
ONE OF MY OWN FINDINGS, MADE WITH LABOUR FORCE
SURVEY DATA FOR A BAKER’S DOZEN OF COUNTRIES
EXTENDED OVER A LONGER PERIOD
IF A COUNTRY’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS HIGHER, THE
ODDS RATIO FOR MOBILITY BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT IS HIGHER, INDICATING LESS MOBILITY
25
26
I ALWAYS TOOK THESE HYPOTHESES ABOUT MOTIVATION
AND OPPORTUNITIES AS CONTRARY TO CASUAL
OBSERVATION, ECONOMICALLY NAIVE, AND AS RESULTING
FROM WISHFUL THINKING OF RIGHT-WING POLITICIANS
THERE ARE INTERESTING DYNAMIC QUESTIONS
ABOUT CROSS-SECTIONAL AL REGULARITIES
WITH A CLEAR TIME ORDER OF FACTORS
IN ALL HIGHLY INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
PERSONS WITH A LOWER LEVEL OF EDUCATION
ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE UNEMPLOYED
ARE UNEMPLOYED PERSONS WITH A LOWER
LEVEL OF EDUCATION LESS LIKELY TO FIND A
JOB ?
OR ARE EMPLOYED PEOPLE WITH A LOW LEVEL
OF EDUCATION MORE LIKELY TO LOOSE THEIR
JOB ?
THE COVER OF THE ECONOMIST FROM JANUARY 22, 2011
QUESTIONS ABOUT REGULARITIES AND THE
UNCLEAR TIME ORDER OF FACTORS
WHY DYNAMIC DATA RATHER
THAN CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA?
A TIME SERIES OF STATISTICS NETHERLANDS
FROM 1930 TO 1971 SHOWS AMONG ADULTS
MORE CONVINCING ARE
EXAMPLES DO NOT POINT AT
LOGICAL POSSIBILITIES,
AN OVERREPRESENTATION OF PEOPLE
WITHOUT ANY RELIGION AMONG THOSE WITH
AN ACADEMIC DEGREE
BUT HINT AT TWO OR MORE
QUITE DIFFERENT PROCESSES
BEHIND FAMILIAR STATISTICAL
REGULARITIES
DOES VISITING A UNIVERSITY MAKE RELIGIOUS
PEOPLE LEAVE THEIR CHURCH?
OR ARE RELIGIOUS PARENTS LESS LIKELY TO
SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO UNIVERSITY?
27
28
IT IS QUITE EASY TO SHOW THAT
PARENTAL IRRELIGION MAKES FOR A
HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION FOR
THEIR CHILDREN
I WILL DO SO AFTER A FEW SLIDES
WITH RECENT DATA FROM THE
NETHERLANDS
HOWEVER, IN RC 28 ON SOCIAL
STRATIFICATION AND MOBILITY I HAVE
NOT SEEN SUCH MODELS IN THE PAST
DECADE
NOW I WILL SHOW THE EFFECT OF
EDUCATION ON CHURCH LEAVING
RYAN O’NEAL IN THE 1977 MOVIE A BRIDGE TOO FAR
THIS MOVIE ABOUT WORLD WAR 2 IS ABOUT A BATTLE LOST BY
THE ALLIED FORCES IN SEPTEMBER 1944
THE FOLLOWING GRAPH IS FROM A STATISTICAL
MODEL FOR DATA FROM OUR 1992-2009 SURVEYS
IN THE NETHERLANDS
THE ALLIES TAKE THE BRIDGE ACROSS THE BIG RIVER IN
NIJMEGEN, BUT DO NOT CAPTURE THE BRIDGE AT ARNHEM
WITH EDUCATION AS A TIME-DEPENDENT
COVARIATE
AND THE CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH IN A
PARTICULAR YEAR AS THE PHENOMENON TO BE
EXPLAINED
EDUCATION DOES CHURCH MEMBERS MAKE
LEAVE CHURCH
THE RED LINE IS FOR PERSON-PERIODS WITH A
LOW EDUCATION,
THE BLUE LINE FOR PERSON-PERIODS WITH
INTERMEDIATE EDUARTION
THE GREEN LINE FOR PERSON-PERIODS WITH
INTERMEDIATE EDUCATION
29
30
mother
no religion
father
no religion
ARE DYNAMIC DATA
A BRIDGE TOO FAR
EFFECTS OF IRRELIGION?
education
mother
FOR RC 28 ON SOCIAL
STRATIFICATION AND
MOBILITY ?
education
father
RC 28 IS STILL ANALYZING
TABLES FOR FATHER’S
OCCUPATION AND SON’S
CURRENT OCCUPATION
education
son
occupation
father
level
first job
ITS MEMBERS STACK
EXISTING FILES AND
MAKE COHORTS
job after
10 years
THIS DOES NOT SQUARE
WITH THE DYNAMIC DATA
PARADIGM
job after
20 years
mother
no religion
DUNCAN IN 1967 WAS ON THE RIGHT TRACK
father
no religion
FIRST OCCUPATION AFTER LEAVING SCHOOL
WAS INCLUDED IN THE STATUS ATTAINMENT
MODEL
TRANSMISSION OF CREDENTIALS ?
education
mother
CURRENT OCCUPATION HAS NOT BEEN
REPLACED BY THE JOB AN EQUALLY LONG
PERIOD AFTER THE FIRST JOB
education
father
THE REASON PROBABLY IS THE
UNAVAILABILITY OF DATA
occupation
father
HERE IS MY OWN ATTEMPT AT IMPROVING THE
STATUS ATTAINMENT MODEL
education
son
level
first job
job after
10 years
THE DATA ARE FROM THE 1992-2009 SURVEYS
IN THE NETHERLANDS
AND CONCERN ONLY MEN WHO ARE AT LEAST
45 YEARS AT THE TIME OF SURVEY AND WHO
HAVE HELD A JOB FOR 2O YEARS
job after
20 years
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32
mother
no religion
mother
no religion
A CREDENTIAL SOCIETY?
father
no religion
education
mother
education
father
OCCUPATIONAL CAREERS AS A
SELF-REINFORCING PROCESS ?
father
no religion
education
mother
education
son
education
father
occupation
father
education
son
occupation
father
level
first job
level
first job
job after
10 years
job after
10 years
job after
20 years
job after
20 years
mother
no religion
STILL A CLASS SOCIETY ?
father
no religion
education
mother
education
father
SO, THE LAST COUPLE OF SLIDES WERE ABOUT
A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT EXPLANATIONS OF A
SEEMINGLY SIMPLE ASSOCIATION, IN THIS CASE
THE RELATION BETWEEN FATHER’S AND SON’S
OCCUPATION
education
son
occupation
father
I DO NOT LIKE TO TALK ABOUT ‘MECHANISMS’,
BUT THAT IS ANOTHER STORY
level
first job
job after
10 years
job after
20 years
33
34
DURKHEIM’S HYPOTHESIS:
THE MORE INTEGRATED A
PERSON INTO A FAMILY, THE
LOWER THIS PERSON’S
CHANCES OF SUICIDE
PARADIGMS DO NOT GAIN
ADHERENTS BECAUSE OF GOOD
GENERAL ARGUMENTS
RESEARCHERS JUMP ON THE
BANDWAGON BECAUSE OF
‘CONVINCING’ CONCRETE
EXEMPLARS
DURKHEIM’S TEST WITH DATA
FOR FRANCE IN 1890:
MARRIED PERSONS WITH
CHILDREN HAVE A LOWER
SUICIDE RATE THAN
MARRIED PERSONS WITHOUT
CHILDREN
THE TEST OF HOYER & LUND
SHOWS THE SUICIDE
LOWERING EFFECT OF THE
NUMBER OF CHILDREN,
RANGING FROM 0 TOT 6+
THE CONTRIBUTION TO THEORY
FORMATION IN SOCIOLOGY
BY TWO STUDIES ON SUICIDE USING
REGISTER-BASED LIFE-COURSE DATA
THESE DATA COME FROM NORWAY
AND DENMARK
PING & MORTENSEN SHOW IN A CASECONTROL DESIGN USING FOUR
LONGITUDINAL REGISTERS FROM
DENMARK
THAT THE DEATH OF A CHILD
INCREASES A PERSON’S CHANCES OF
SUICIDE, AND THE SUICIDE OF A
CHILD EVEN MORE SO
THE FIRST PART OF THIS FINDING, OF
COURSE, CONFIRMS DURKHEIM’S
CENTURY OLD THEORY
BUT HOW DOES THE SECOND PART
FIT IN ?
AFTER A CENTURY THEY PROVIDED
THE FIRST STRONG TEST OF A
BRANCH OF DURKHEIM’S THEORY OF
SUICIDE
HOWEVER, THE ARTICLES APPEARED
IN ARCHIVES OF GENERAL
PSYCHIATRY IN 1994 AND 2003
35
36
THIS POWER-POINT IS
POSTED ON MY WEBSITE
TYPE IN GOOGLE
WOUT ULTEE
CLICK THE FIRST HIT
CLICK ON THE LEFT
PRESENTATIONS
GO TO FOREIGN
PRESENTATIONS
CLICK ON TURKU 2011
TAKE CARE TO SWITCH ON
THE COMPABILITY ICON TO
THE RIGHT OF THE WINDOW
FOR TYPING THE WEBSITE
ADDRESS
37