Uppsala university Department of Economic History C-level thesis, spring semester 2011 Supervisors: Arne Kaijser, Professor in Technical History, KTH. Lars Fälting, Senior lecturer, PhD, Department of Economic History, Uppsala The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman 2011-06-07 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman Abstract This thesis is about the work of Nordel, an advisory body set up in 1963 by the largest power companies in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The purpose of Nordel was to strengthen and consolidate Nordic cooperation in the production and transmission of electrical power. The analysis has been conducted by using Elinor Ostrom’s framework for studying common-pool resources, which is described in her book Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action (1990). The thesis concludes that Nordel reaffirmed the bilateral practises already established by the individual power companies and was circumscribed by national energy policies. Nordel’s main contribution to the Nordic cooperation was to act as a forum for common technical issues and general aims, and as a knowledge-producing organisation. Keywords Common-pool resources, institutions, socio-technical systems, energy policies. Sida 1 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman Table of contents Abstract ..........................................................................................................................................1 Keywords ....................................................................................................................................1 Table of contents ...........................................................................................................................2 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource ..................................................................4 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................4 Purpose and research questions .....................................................................................................6 Theoretical framework ....................................................................................................................7 Reason for choice of theory and acknowledgements ...................................................................7 Ostrom’s framework for common-pool resources .......................................................................8 Application and relevance of Ostrom’s framework to the Nordel case ....................................... 13 Sources and method ..................................................................................................................... 16 Incentives driving cooperation in electricity systems ..................................................................... 17 The historical context and the roots of Nordel .............................................................................. 19 Post-War reconstruction and European cooperation ................................................................. 19 Production, transmission and distribution of electricity in the Nordic countries ........................ 22 Nordel as a model of UCPTE ...................................................................................................... 26 Power exchange............................................................................................................................ 28 Rules and agreements governing the power exchange .............................................................. 28 Estimating power available for exchange and calculating marginal costs ................................... 31 Nordel’s recommendations regarding power exchange ............................................................. 32 Planning and coordinating construction ........................................................................................ 35 Estimating and stimulating future consumption ........................................................................ 35 Strategic investigations ............................................................................................................. 37 The gains from power pooling and coordinated construction .................................................... 40 Conclusions................................................................................................................................... 44 Summary of Nordel’s proposals on power exchange and construction coordination.................. 44 Nordel’s institutional position, authority and importance .......................................................... 44 Sida 2 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman Can the Nordic electricity system be regarded as a common-pool resource? ............................. 46 Suggestions for further research ............................................................................................... 47 Sources and bibliography .............................................................................................................. 48 Unprinted sources ..................................................................................................................... 48 Printed sources ......................................................................................................................... 48 Electronic sources ..................................................................................................................... 49 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 49 Sida 3 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Introduction The subject of this thesis is the national electricity systems of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, or more specifically the work of Nordel, a joint board set up in 1963 by the largest power companies in the above countries.1 The main purpose of Nordel was to strengthen and consolidate cooperation in the production and transmission of power, to share and pool power reserves in order to enhance reliability, reduce investment and operation costs. 2 Two important types of cooperation were exchange of electrical power between the countries and joint ventures concerning construction. In general, the object of Nordel was to work towards integrating the national subsystems into a common Nordic electricity system, one could almost speak of a common-pool resource (CPR) into which the members of Nordel could tap. The topic common-pool resources has drawn increasing interest in recent years due to environmental problems such as depleting fish stocks and retreating tropical forests. But how is this concept relevant in the study of large technical systems as the one described above? It should be obvious, I hope, that natural and man-made structures share a common characteristic by simply being resource systems from which resource units can be drawn, whether those units are counted in fish, timber, kilowatt hours or any other type of unit. Although the Earth’s ecosystems perform invaluable services such as producing drinking water and pollination, I believe resources where natural and man-made structures are integrated or activities where human knowledge and technology manage natural resources such as agriculture and forestry will grow significantly in importance. This is, of course, neither a controversial nor a particularly original point of view, since the Earth’s growing population will demand more from those resources and activities. The link between the management of these resources and potential environmental problems is clear. So is the link between the construction and management of sewage systems, railway networks, roads, electricity systems, the Internet and several other large technical systems, but not primarily – in the line I am pursuing in this thesis – as infringements or destruction of the natural environment but rather as a part of this environment, a modern cultural landscape. I am certainly not, however, arguing that the construction of these systems always have beneficial outcomes. Roads and highways, for example, often interfere with natural habitats. I will instead simply argue that technology and technical systems have been an intrinsic part of human life for a very long time and will most likely remain so. I also believe that successfully managed these systems hold one of the keys to sustainability, that is providing humans 1 Iceland was also a member of the board, but only as an observer. The tasks and responsibilities of Nordel was transferred to ENTSO-E, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, in July 2009. 2 Sida 4 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman with crucial resources and services yet avoiding environmental degradation. “Successfully managed” should be understood to contain the widest possible range of options. Viewed this way, these systems are – from a human point of view – on a par with the Earth’s ecosystems and in equal need of fair and wise governance. Similar to the natural systems, they face increasing pressure from population growth but lack these systems ability to renew themselves; they are man-made, “dead” structures that will enter a state of rapid decay unless properly maintained. Good management, then, is as crucial when managing large technical systems as it is when managing fish stocks or tropical forests. Good management, in turn, hinges on successful cooperation, and the rules that govern this cooperation, since common-pool resources often cross national borders or other jurisdictions. In economic history, rules are often referred to as institutions. According to Douglass C. North, the influential economic historian, institutions are “the rules of the game in a society or, more formally, ... the humanly devised constraints that shape human interaction. ... they structure incentives in human exchange, whether political, social or economic.”3 I will in other words try to place my thesis firmly in a tradition where institutions play a crucial role, and where these constraints – not only “humanly devised” since energy systems depend on endowments in natural resources – shape the outcomes of cooperation. I will not, however, use North’s more general historical approach, but the framework presented by Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom in her influential book Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action (1990). The central theme for Ostrom, as North, is the rules, the institutions, governing human cooperation. Ostrom argues that participants in CPR situation can, and in fact do, communicate and cooperate to manage their common resources, as opposed to theories or models where the participants are locked in a situation which they are unable to change, for example the “prisoners’ dilemma” in which participants end up in a sub-optimal solution although they behave rationally.4 The thesis is organised as follows. I will start with presenting my purpose and my research questions, continue with an outline of Ostrom’s theoretical framework and how it can be applied to the Nordic electricity system. This will be followed by a brief discussion of sources and method. Next, I will explain the technical and economic incentives for cooperation in electricity systems. This will constitute an indispensible background for my analysis. The following section, “The historical context and the roots of Nordel”, is a combination of providing context and making an analysis. The contextual part concerns the European cooperation in electricity generation and transmission during the Post-War years and a brief sub-section on the electricity generating regimes in the different Nordic countries. The analytical part is a description of the creation of Nordel. The following two 3 4 North (1990), p. 3. Ostrom (1990), p. 184. Sida 5 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman sections, “Power exchange” and “Planning and coordinating construction”, contains the analysis of my primary sources and thus constitute the main body of the thesis. In the final section, I present my conclusions. Purpose and research questions The purpose of this thesis is, as I stated above, to study the work of Nordel, a joint board set up in 1963 by the largest power companies in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The work of Nordel is to a large extent used as an operationalisation of the cooperation within the field of electricity generation and transmission between the Nordic power companies. The thesis will, however, also specifically cover some of the activities of the individual power companies. In general, I will compare the constraints and opportunities in order to bring the incentives and the processes governing this cooperation into light. Moreover, I will try to place the work of Nordel and the cooperation between the Nordic power companies in its relevant historical context. I will study Nordel’s activities from its inception in 1963 to about 1972 when the first years’ work result in a number of important reports and publications. By analysing the cooperation in the Nordic electricity system I also hope to provide some insight into the management on this type of large technical systems, whose, as I wrote above, successful management I believe hold one of the keys to environmental sustainability. My specific research questions are the following: 1. What were the incentives and what were the rules governing the power exchanges, and what were the main measures that Nordel proposed in order to develop the cooperation within this field? 2. What were the incentives governing the planning and coordination of construction, and what were the main measures that Nordel proposed in order to develop the cooperation within this field? 3. What were the constraints and the opportunities within which Nordel had to work, and what were the consequences of these constraints and opportunities? As I stated above, I will use Elinor Ostrom’s framework as she presents it in her Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action (1990). Although she has developed this framework further in her Understanding Institutional Diversity (2005), I will use the original framework. This is fully sufficient for my purpose, compared to Ostrom’s aims, which are to probe deeper into the collective actions of humans and formalise the framework and concepts further. Sida 6 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman The research questions are intened to work as an operationalisation of Ostrom’s theoretical framework. I will specify exactly how further below in the theoretical section. Already at this point, however, I would like to point out that this thesis is not about testing Ostrom’s framework. I will in fact take it as a starting point, accept its basic tenets as true, to investigate a specific historical process. This does not, on the other hand, rule out a discussion about whether the framework is a relevant and fruitful approach. But that discussion will have to wait until the concluding section. I must emphasise that the focus of this thesis is about the rules and incentives, constraints and opportunities, governing the cooperation. I will not discuss electricity generation in the Nordic countries in general, apart from a brief historical exposé. And this will only cover the electricity systems, not the broad economic and social differences among the Nordic countries. Neither will the study contain tables and graphs showing quantitative data. This might seem odd since the intention of the Nordic cooperation to a large extent was to reduce investment and operation costs. Again, the thesis is focused on rules and incentives, and I have, I believe, included enough quantitative data to explain these rules and incentives, the constraints and the opportunities. Theoretical framework Reason for choice of theory and acknowledgements Before describing Ostrom’s framework, I would like, briefly, to motivate my choice of theory. After all, given the subject, there are at least two natural frameworks to use. One obvious choice could have been the concepts and ideas developed by Thomas P. Hughes in his important Networks of Power: Electrification in Western Society 1880-1903 (1983). Or I might have chosen some of the concepts and ideas developed by Alfred D. Chandler in his Scale and Scope: The Dynamics of Industrial Capitalism (1990). As a brief and very general defence, I would say that Hughes’ and Chandler’s body of work, as I see it, are mainly focused on explaining processes, on the one hand large technical systems, on the other business organisations and business processes, where the common thread is initiation, growth, success or failure. Though their work is permeated with the importance of institutions, the rules of the game, and incentives created by those rules and other circumstances, the institutions do not play the role they do in Ostrom’s theoretical framework, and as they do in my choice of focus. I do not for a minute mean to say that this description provides an conclusive view of Hughes’ and Chandler’s work, but it nevertheless will have to serve as my motivation. In some way, however, I cannot get around Hughes. The reason is that the work of a Swedish scholar, Arne Kaijser, features prominently in this thesis; in fact, I could not have done without it. Through Sida 7 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman Kaijser, who have incorporated some of Hughes’ ideas in parts of his own body of work, Hughes has found his way into this thesis. Particularly important for this thesis are Kaijser’s Controlling the Grid: The Development of High-Tension Power Lines in the Nordic Countries (1995) and Trans-border integration of electricity and gas in the Nordic countries, 1915-1992 (1997). But perhaps the most important support is that Kaijser provided me with the topic of this thesis. Other crucial scholarly work for this thesis has been, in the Nordic historical context, Lars Thue’s Electricity rules: The Formation and Development of the Nordic Electricity Regimes (1995), and in the European context, Vincent Lagendijk’s Electrifying Europe: The power of Europe in the construction of electricity networks (2008). Ostrom’s framework for common-pool resources The characteristics of a common-pool resource What are the basic concepts describing a common-pool resource (CPR)? Typical examples of common-pool resources are fisheries, grazing fields, aquifers from which groundwater can be drawn, but also man-made artefacts such as roads, the Internet, irrigation systems, etcetera. In Ostroms terminology, a common-pool resource has specific boundaries, a certain stock of a particular good (or service), from which a flow can be drawn. It must, however, be possible to replenish the stock; that is, a common-pool resource is renewable. Common-pool resources may be understood as a combination of a public good and a private good. Public goods are commodities or services “whose consumption by one person does not preclude others from also consuming” them.5 Typical examples include national defence or clean air. These examples are similar to the ones given above. A public good may, however, be characterised by exclusion, for example to get access to a cable television service or admission into a concert you have to pay a fee. But there is still no rivalry: as long as the fee is paid, everyone can (in principle) view until the capacity of the concert hall or the broadband cables are exhausted. This is not the case with private goods, which have both rivalry and exclusion: the same meal or a specific litre of petrol cannot be consumed by two persons at the same time. The common-pool resources share this feature with the private good: the individual resource units, the fish, the litres of water or space occupied by a car on a road, cannot simultaneously be used or consumed by two persons. Much of the problem with common-pool resources, such as overuse or crowding effects, stems from this combination of free access and rivalry. Another name often used for common-pool resources are therefore open-access common property, resources “to which everyone has free access and an equal 5 Perloff (2008), pp. 622-623. Sida 8 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman right to exploit.”6 The problems of overuse are, however, not exclusively related to these openaccess resources, but can also be prominent in resources owned collectively, such as by a group of private individuals, or a local, regional or national government. The heart of the problem, however, the problem Ostrom studies, is how groups of people manage, or fail to manage, these resources, irrespective of whether they are owned collectively or by no one. People drawing resource units from a common-pool resource are called appropriators. Those making the resource available, or create the resource, are called providers. People may be appropriators and providers at the same time, as in the case of cooperation to build and use an irrigation system. But many times they are not: private companies, municipalities as well as cooperatives may provide heating, water, sewage, facilities, electricity, etc., whose resource units and services can be appropriated by the inhabitants in a village, city or a metropolitan area. Provision and appropriation are, as Ostrom emphasises, two sides of the same coin, solutions to appropriation must match solutions for provision. According to Ostrom, appropriation is related to “various methods of allocating a fixed, or time-independent, quantity of resource units” whereas provision is concerned with “various ways of assigning responsibility for building, restoring, or maintaining the resource system over time”.7 Variables and incentives The basic features of Ostrom’s framework are captured in figure 1 below. The box represents the internal world, circumscribed by the external world. These entities should not, not primarily at least, be understood as physical objects and the divide between them as a physical border. Instead, the internal world is a world of “individual choice”,8 choices which are made in a specific context, the external world. Both the internal world and the external world shape and influence the choices. 6 Perloff (2008), p. 620. Ostrom (1990), p. 47. 8 Ibid., p. 37. 7 Sida 9 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman External world Internal world Expected benefits Internal norms Discount rate Choice of strategies Outcomes Expected costs Figure 1. Ostrom’s framework. The internal world of choice is dependent on the following variables: Internal norms Discount rate Expected benefits Expected cost Internal norms are values and preferences guiding behaviour. The discount rate reflects commitment. A low discount rate means that someone values an asset as much in the future as at this moment, while a high discount rate means that someone values instant satisfaction higher than satisfaction at a later point. In other words, a low rate reflects long-term commitment while a high means that preferences are focused on immediate returns. The former is conducive to cooperation in commonpool resources while the latter may not. The internal norms and discount rate influence how the expected benefits and expected cost are assessed. The expected benefits and expected costs affect the choices and strategies of the appropriators/providers, which in turn shape the outcomes of the cooperation, or non-cooperation. This brings us to another important aspect of Ostrom’s framework, the effort to gain knowledge, since one must know what is at stake, what is to gain and to loose in the cooperation. Besides these strategic questions, there are also ones related to the daily operation of the CPR, for example how large a flow can be withdrawn before the CPR’s capacity to renew its stock is threatened? In other Sida 10 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman words, cooperation and management of common-pool resources are often associated with a large degree of uncertainty and lack of knowledge, a complex situation which may lead to considerable information costs in order to know what at stake, how large the stock of the CPR is and similar questions. Ostrom refers to these questions as situation variables, variables affecting the internal variables. These are represented as the block arrows in the figure above. Situation variables can be, as just implied, the information costs pertaining to the benefits: How many appropriators must share the CPR? What is the size of the CPR? Are its resource units dispersed and hard to extract? Can they only be withdrawn infrequently? What is the general condition and status of the CPR? The situation variables are related to my third research question, the constraints and opportunities within which Nordel had to work. The situational variables can also be related to the cooperation, the negotiations, the process itself where participants decide to change or keep “the rules of the game”. They can also be related to after an agreement has been reached, when new rules has been established. Ostrom refers to the former as transformation costs. Examples of factors influencing transformation costs are whether participants share interests or if they differ widely, which higher-level rules are used to change lower-level rules, the skills and assets of the participants, whether the participants are free to change rules at all. The latter, after new rules have been established, Ostrom refers to as monitoring and enforcement costs. This may be technology to monitor behaviour, extract resource units or exclude outsiders from appropriation; as well as the legitimacy of the rules in use.9 Monitoring and conformance to rules is, Ostrom points out, one of three central problems in managing a CPR over time.10 The other two are commitment and supplying new rules, that is proposing and working out new rules. Ostrom notes that in a CPR (in most cases, at least, I assume) monitoring is a requirement for commitment, and commitment in turn is a requirement for participants to engage in proposing new rules. Prior studies and theories have proposed that management of CPRs failed because humans rarely took on the task of supplying new rules. But Ostrom argues that humans have, in fact, created “institutions, committed themselves to follow rules, and monitored their own conformance to their agreements, as well as their conformance to the rules in a CPR situation. Trying to understand how they have done this is the challenge of this study.”11 In relation to this, I would like to point out that Ostrom emphasises that it is necessary “to reflect on the incremental self-transforming nature of institutional change”.12 In other words, and as I understand her point, failure does not necessarily mean that the process ends. On the contrary. 9 Ostrom (1990), pp. 192-205. Ibid., p. 42. 11 Ibid., p. 45. 12 Ibid., p. 191. 10 Sida 11 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman Outcomes are assessed, negotiations proceed and new rules are proposed. This iterative process is indicated by the dotted line in the figure above. Institutional levels Ostrom emphasises that it is necessary carry out the analysis of a CPR on several levels, which can be understood as level of authority or level for a certain type of activity. Ostrom refers to these as levels on analysis, but I will call them institutional levels since they are related to the different types of rules and the arenas to which they belong.13 The reason Ostrom makes this point is that a CPR situation involves several levels and that the levels are interrelated, affecting each other, but also that appropriators and providers may often, depending on the particular CPR situation being analysed, need to operate on several levels. Ostrom posits three levels: the operational, the collective and the constitutional. The activities and decisions are shown in table 1 below. Table 1. CPR levels and the related decisions and choices. Institutional level Decisions and choices Operational Day-to-day decisions on provision, appropriation, monitoring and enforcement of operational rules within the CPR. Collective Decisions on what policies and operational rules should govern the CPR, settlement of disputes. Constitutional Decisions on who is eligible to participate on the collective level and what rules should govern the collective level. The operational level involves day-to-day decisions about the provision, appropriation, monitoring and enforcement that are taking place within the CPR. The collective level revolves around decisions regarding the policies and management that should govern the CPR; perhaps also settlements of disputes. Formal arenas for collective decisions might, for example, be courts or regulatory agencies; informal collective arenas can be private associations. At the constitutional level, decisions are taken regarding who is eligible to participate on the collective level and what rules should govern the collective level. Note that the constitutional level sets constraints on the collective level, which in turn sets constraints on the operational level. This is, of course, a top-down direction of influence, but the effects might also go in the other direction, for example by the technology used at the operational level, affecting and, or restricting the decision that are possible to make on the collective and constitutional levels. 13 Ostrom (1990), pp. 50-55. Sida 12 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman Note, also, that rules are governing decision-making at every level. These are, as Douglass C. North put it, “the rules of the game”, the institutions. Ostrom suggests that institutions can be defined as “…the sets of working rules that are used to determine who is eligible to make decisions in some arena, what actions are allowed or constrained, … what procedures must be followed, what information must or must not be provided, and what payoffs will be assigned to individuals dependent on their actions.”14 This is, in essence, the same as North’s “… the humanly devised constraints that shape human interaction. ... they structure incentives in human exchange, whether political, social or economic.” 15 Once again, the rules, along with the incentives and the institutional setting will be the focus of my study. Application and relevance of Ostrom’s framework to the Nordel case How does Ostrom’s framework apply to the Nordic electricity system and the work of Nordel? And how will I use it? I will divide this discussion in three parts, which I will relate to the headings above: What characteristics do the Nordic electricity system, and the work of Nordel, have that grants it the status of a CPR? How do the variables and incentives in Ostrom’s framework apply to the Nordic electricity system and the work of Nordel? I will also say something about the institutional level analysis, but the main application of these concepts will have to wait until I describe the creation of Nordel. From the description above of the general characteristics of a common-pool resource (CPR), I hope it is clear that the features of a CPR apply to the Nordic electricity system. This system was and is a resource system: the power stations, transmission lines, distribution stations, etc., from which resource units can be drawn (kWh) in a flow. It has a certain stock, in this case, the water magazines or fossil fuel reserves, but its infrastructure may also be viewed as its stock, particularly since this system is characterised of production and immediate consumption, that is withdrawing energy units require immediate production to regain the power balance – the balance between consumption and production. That is, it is immediately renewable. This means that crowding effects and overuse does not normally occur, but severe winter temperatures or years with unusually low rainfall might prompt authorities or power companies to ration the flow of electricity. It thus has limits of how many resource units can be withdrawn per unit of time. Note, also, that this CPR, since it contains hydropower, comprises both man-made artefacts and natural “structures”. 14 15 Ostrom (1990), p. 51. North (1990), p. 3. Sida 13 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman Stating that the CPR, the electricity system, consists of the water magazines, power stations, hightension transmission lines, transmission substations and distribution lines is, I admit, a rather unspecific definition of its internal characteristics and boundaries. However, its main characteristic, its ability to generate a flow of electricity, along with its main actors, Nordel and the power companies, will suffice for my purpose, whose focus is the cooperation within Nordel and between the power companies. I will also argue that this cooperation to some extent defines the CPR; factors irrelevant to the cooperation do not belong to the CPR. Moreover, its internal characteristic – the number of power stations, high-tension transmission lines, transmission substations, etc. – may change, but its main purpose and function, to generate a flow of electricity, will remain. In other words, although its physical boundaries and exact internal structure are uncertain its function is very precise. However, its internal characteristics, its stock of the above-mentioned infrastructure, was of course crucial to its ability to generate electricity, how it worked and was operated. As such, they strongly influence the rules on all levels, the operational, the collective and the constitutional, by defining the constraints and opportunities of cooperation, operation and change of its internal structure. In sum, its features and aspects mattered more than its exact structure. I will describe those features and aspects, the constraints and the opportunities, in the section “Incentives driving cooperation in electricity systems” below. A more important line, in my opinion, is the one that needs to be drawn between appropriators and providers. As a simplification, one could say that my aim is to put Ostrom’s problem on its head: How should the participants cooperate in order to exploit the resource better, to unlock its potential? I will argue that, whether it is about preventing overuse and destruction of the common-pool resource, as in most of Ostrom’s empirical cases, or unlocking its potential, as in the case of the Nordic electricity system, the main issue is essentially the same, that of cooperation and the incentives to do so. The ownership of national resources was of course not transferred between the different companies, but the partners relinquished some of the strict control over them in order to use the reserves of the total system. It was, to be sure, an economical agreement, but one that nevertheless codified and thereby simplified the mutual gains. To return to Ostrom’s terminology, though each power company was a provider to households and industries within its national border, each company could gain access to, appropriate a part of, the total Nordic electricity system. In other words, the individual companies, just as Ostrom’s appropriators of fishing waters or aquifers, can be defined as appropriators of the total Nordic electricity system. As I wrote above, appropriation is related to “various methods of allocating a fixed, or timeindependent, quantity of resource units” whereas provision is concerned with “various ways of Sida 14 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman assigning responsibility for building, restoring, or maintaining the resource system over time”.16 Applied to the Nordic electricity system, then, a power company could appropriate shared resources created by the cooperation, but must also provide its share to the mutual resources. Provision and appropriation are two sides of the same coin, solutions to appropriation must match those of provision. When it comes to the internal variables internal norms and discount rate, I will make the following assumptions. I will assume that the internal norms of the individual members of Nordel are the same, or about the same: they had similar education, professional positions, and perhaps even similar social backgrounds. Since cooperation in the field of large-scale technical systems usually means long-term commitment, I will assume the discount rate is low, at least when it comes to cooperation on coordinated construction. This assumption may not necessarily hold for the power exchanges. Note that the internal norms and discount rate are related to research questions one and two above since they influence the incentives. What will be of higher interest are the expected benefits and the expected costs. I will look for what was perceived as the expected benefits of cooperation, but also what was regarded as costs and disadvantages. The expected benefits, as well as the costs, are closely related to my first two research questions, the incentives for engaging in the power exchanges and the joint ventures of coordinated construction. Those two questions are also connected to how these benefits should be attained, what routes and strategies should be taken. I will look particularly at how uncertainty and lack of knowledge were reduced, and the costs related to this. I will also try to chart and assess the importance of the situational variables. This concerns the internal characteristics of the CPR, in this case mainly the characteristic of the technology, the features, aspects, constraints and opportunities I referred to above. Note that the situation variables are related to my third research question, the constraints and opportunities in which Nordel had to work. The transformation costs, changes of rules are mostly related to the time and expenses devoted to committee work. It is also, since most committees worked to gain better knowledge of specific issues, closely related to the information costs, which could, I suspect, be quite high due to the complexity of the total, Nordic electricity system. On the other hand, since much of the cooperation essentially was business agreements for mutual gains, I will assume the problem of monitoring and enforcement was no major issues and costs. When it comes to, finally, the institutional levels, the operational, the collective and the constitutional, I will try to place the board of Nordel on its proper level, as well as try to analyse its 16 Ostrom (1990), p. 47. Sida 15 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman authority and which levels affected it most. The institutional levels are, as the situation variables, clearly related to my third research question since the levels stipulate authority to perform certain tasks, obligations or roles. Sources and method My sources are located in the Swedish State Power Board’s, Vattenfall, corporate archive.17 It comprises the minutes of meetings from the Nordel board, its sub-committees as well as annual and other reports. Since Vattenfall was only one participant of Nordel, I have excluded material specifically related to Vattenfall and only used the common Nordel material. I have regarded the minutes of meetings as primary sources, the annual and the other reports as printed sources. In other words, they describe what Nordel thought, how they acted, wrote, what they aimed at, etc., regarding the different issues. I have, however, also used some of these reports as sources of general facts, that is not only as a source of what Nordel thought of an issue, but also whether facts or descriptions in the sources in fact are true descriptions of actual situations. When it comes to these specific facts, I have deemed this a rather safe assumption. The two other questions relevant here are 1) what the purpose of the sources were and the context in which they were created, and 2) if the sources can provide answers to the research questions. Regarding the first, I have tried to treat the annual reports with some care. These were meant for public consumption, perhaps mainly for politicians and policy makers within the field of electricity affairs. Not that I believe that they intended manipulate or lead the reader on the wrong path, but I will assume they intended to present Nordel as an authoritative and important organisation in the field of Nordic cooperation. Regarding the context in which the sources were created, I have assumed the delegates had to strike a balance between being a member of Nordel and the parent company/organisation. Though some board meetings may have been conducted as negotiations, Nordel was created in a cooperative spirit and will assume this influenced the meetings to the same degree as the national or corporate background of the delegates. However, I will not, in general, refer to what individual members said during board meetings. In other words, I will treat Nordel, more or less, as a collective. When it comes to the second question, if the sources can provide answers to the research questions, I have used secondary sources and literature against which to weigh the primary sources. There is a fairly large body of academic work related to the Nordic and European electricity systems, and I have had good use of this literature in this thesis. 17 Statens Vattenfallsverk Staben /S/ 1962-1991. Handlingar ordnade efter ämne. F1b Dossièrer, huvudserie 2, volymer 82-86, 308-320, 557-560, 831. Sida 16 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman Incentives driving cooperation in electricity systems This thesis is about the incentives and the constraints in a cooperation concerning a large technical system. Let us see, as I promised above what constraints and opportunities the participants had to confront or use respectively. What were the expected benefits of cooperation, the internal characteristic of the CPR and some of the situation variables shaping the cooperation? The purpose of Nordel was to strengthen the cooperation in regard to electricity generation and transmission. The gains from cooperation, more specifically interconnection, power exchange or power pooling, were well known at the time of Nordel’s creation. 18 The main features, however, of these gains had probably been known for decades. What were the main points? One, and in the Nordic case important, was the possibility to combine hydropower with thermal power plants. The advantage arises due to the fact that excess capacity of hydropower allow less use of thermal plants, thus lowering overall fuel costs, while the thermal plants can provide valuable backup capacity during periods of water shortages, either seasonally such as during winter when water flows are normally lower, or during years of exceptionally low rainfall. In addition, a backup thermal plant is also less costly than building a reserve dam. The benefits are in other words cost reduction, greater reliability and security of supply due to a diversification in technology, or, as Thomas P. Hughes would have said (mentioned in theoretical section above) a beneficial economic mix.19 Elinor Ostrom had perhaps called it a beneficial combination of appropriation or provision technology.20 Another combination, also much on the theme of reliability and cost reduction, is between two hydropower based systems, but with different annual water flows or temporary differences in rainfall. Storage reservoirs can be used in the water system where it is less costly. Thermal plants can also take advantage of interconnection by using the plants with the lowest marginal cost per produced energy unit for the baseload, usually the larger plants, while using the smaller plants with higher marginal cost, but that can be started quicker and easier, for periods of temporary higher loads. This is basically a result of the economies of scale for using the larger plants. This type of interconnected system can also make use of coordinated maintenance of plants, when they have to be shut down and overhauled, again increasing reliability. Another factor has to do with the sheer enlargement of the electrical system. The enlargement increases the number end users, appropriators, which in turn increases the diversity of users, for 18 Sewell (1964), pp. 569-571. The advantages of interconnection in electrical systems are also described in Kaijser (1995) p. 36 and in Cramer & Tschirhart (1983) pp. 25-26. 19 Kaijser (1997), p. 16. 20 Ostrom (1990), p. 203. Sida 17 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman example households versus industry, with different patterns of daily use. The gain thus comes from the fact that the peak loads in the participating sub-systems do not coincide. This is, in other words, on the familiar theme of economies of scope.21 Again, Thomas P. Hughes has offered the term load factor to describe the even load, which in turn enables better use of the larger plant’s economies of scale. Another consequence of this is that the larger interconnected system requires less installed total capacity to meet demand and reserve requirements than the sum of the individual systems. This is due to the fact that the peak load in the total pooled system is lower than the sum of the peak loads in the subsystems. It also has reliability side to it: due to the larger number of production units the likelihood of total system failure is lower. This is the same principle as insurances, such as unemployment or sickness benefits, which also make use of pooling resources. And finally, a factor that has to do with changing the system, not merely connecting its sub-systems (even if that is major feat). In a system it is possible to decide on new plants or transmission lines ”…with respect to the nature, location and timing” of this infrastructure.22 For example, investing hydropower in one region or country where water resources are abundant, build transmission lines to other regions/countries. When it comes to timing, which in fact where used rather frequently in the Nordic countries, the incentive is again the economies of scale, the larger units better efficiency per energy unit (normally thermal or nuclear plants). The problem, however, with building large plants is that the demand when the plant is completed may probably not go all the way up to its capacity, resulting in overinvestment and unnecessary high capital costs. One way to solve this for a company planning a new facility is to invite partners to share the cost, but also the benefits: to postpone their own investments and in the meantime buy power from the company building the plant. In other words, when using this planned procedure, one considered the output of the total system and avoided overinvesting and excessive capital costs. This procedure is called “staggering”.23 It should be added that economies of scale also refers to the transmission lines, that is the highvoltage long-distance lines connecting regions (as opposed to distribution which is low-voltage, short transfers to end customers).24 In other words, the marginal cost of transferring a unit of energy falls as transmission capacity grows. Investing in new transmission and generating capacity in an interconnected system, or a power pool as it also called, can be done differently regarding to how the agreements are drawn.25 A strictly controlled pool may, for example, limit the individual member’s choice of type, place and timing of its investments. A less strictly controlled pool may on the other hand just provide a forum and allow 21 Kaijser (1994), p. 80. Cramer & Tschirhart (1983), p. 25. 23 In Swedish and Norwegian respectively, ”saxning” or ”saksning”. 24 Cramer & Tschirhart (1983), p. 25. Sewell (1964), p. 571. 25 Cramer & Tschirhart (1983), p. 25. 22 Sida 18 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman for greater flexibility. This categorisation can also be applied to how the pool is organised and operated. The former may be called a closely-knit, the latter a loosely-knit power pool.26 The member utilities integrates as long as it generates benefits and stops when marginal benefits equals the marginal costs of further integration.27 The historical context and the roots of Nordel Post-War reconstruction and European cooperation28 By the 1960s electricity had become so closely intertwined in the fabric of the society that it was more or less, as stated by a scientific article 1964, viewed as prerequisite for economic growth and development in the industrialised world. An important part in this interlinking of economic affairs and technology was the European reconstruction after World War II, highly aided by the Marshall plan, or, as it was officially known, the European Recovery Program (ERP) from 1947. This also highlights the drive for European cooperation and integration after the Second World War. The recovery program was led in the USA by the Economic Cooperation Administration (ECA) and coordinated in Europe by the Organization for European Economic Cooperation (OEEC), created in 1948, (which by 1961 had become the global organisation Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD). The reconstruction and building in the field of electricity was handled by the OEEC Electricity Committee, which in 1949 formulated its main goal of “making more electricity available” as “1) drawing up a long-term program for power plants, 2) proposing measures to intensify the use of resources, and 3) taking away barriers to the exchange of surplus electricity.”29 The work of the OEEC Electricity Committee finally resulted in 1950 in a coordinating body named Union pour la Coordination de la Production et du Transport de l’Électricité (UCPTE),30 (Union for the Coordination of Production and Transmission of Electricity) and included utilities31 from Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Austria and Switzerland. The UCPTE, which Nordel later came to emulate, knowingly or unknowingly.32 The committee had the previous year announced a proposal for a European power pool, whose pooling power was mainly to be associated with new generating capacity financed via the European Recovery Program, a total of 950 MW made available for the pool. Pressure from the USA, however, pushed the committee to start integration 26 Lagendijk (2008), p. 134. Cramer & Tschirhart (1983), p. 24. 28 This is mainly built on Lagendijk (2008). 29 Lagendijk (2008), p. 143. 30 Ibid., pp. 146-150. 31 I assume this could be private, cooperative, municipal or state owned. 32 As Nordel, the tasks and responsibilities of UCPTE was transferred to ENTSO-E, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, in July 2009. 27 Sida 19 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman immediately and not wait until new capacity had been built. The main issues then became how to plan for new capacity, where it should be built and how its output should be distributed, and – in general - how each type of energy source should be used to enhance the total efficiency, as well as how a high-tension transmission network should be constructed. 33 UCPTE had a number of specific goals. One was to try to lessen the constraints on the short-term power exchanges between the member countries. Taking the existing status of the transmission network as a starting point, a standardised form was devised on which utilities could state their intention to export or import for a forthcoming period. I assume this was intended as a formalisation to reduce the information cost and transaction cost between the utilities. However, a specific reason was also to obtain historical records on the exchanges, to be used as a planning tool to increase future exchanges. Another effort to lessen the constraints was to try to liberalise the national legislation concerning the supply and exchange of electrical power. A step on the way was when in 1956 seasonal exchanges were allowed, and finally in 1959, when all other forms of exchanges were allowed. Exchanges grew from about 1 per cent of total production in 1954 to slightly over 4 per cent in 1965. On the more operational and technical goals, the UCPTE initiated coordinated maintenance of thermal power plants so that the required total production could remain at normal levels despite overhauls, and achieved synchronous operation of all member networks at 50 Hz at the end of the 1950s. Synchronous operation was necessary to determine the required reserve capacity of the electrical network. This then, was a necessary requirement to estimate the benefit of combining several networks, which in turn lowered the amount of installed capacity for a certain reserve capacity. The broad aim of these goals was to bridge the gap between production and demand, that is to retain the power balance. The UCPTE used a two-pronged strategy. On the one hand supporting the national programs of electricity generation, resulting in a limited required amount of power exchanges; on the other develop interconnections in regions straddling national borders, and whose exchanges would support the nations meeting in those regions. Both ways would thus lead to the same goal. On the organisational side, the UCPTE had a Restricted committee that met four times a year. This committee prepared the bi-annually Assembly meetings, which hosted representatives from all member countries. The union had a president and a vice president whose positions were subject to 33 Lagendijk (2008), p. 147. Sida 20 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman re-election each year, with a maximum of two terms in office. The president’s utility or organisation carried the costs of the Secretariat; the UCPTE had no budget on its own. Despite the technical integration of synchronous operation and increased power exchanges, the UCPTE was a remarkably loose organisation. It was based on voluntary cooperation, it could not interfere in the member utilities’ commercial activities, which was assumed to be conducted on a bilateral basis, and it should be independent of other international organisations. The statutes specifically stipulated that the organisation consisted of people, that is the representatives’ participation was based on personal capacity, not the fact that they were employed at or associated with a public utility, private company or a public administrative charged with electricity affairs. However, that association to the production or transmission of electricity was also a requirement. The idea behind the personal capacity had originated in the OEEC Electrical Committee and was intended to foster a “spirit of mutual trust”. In the view of the committee, personal relations could thus foster trust, not relations between organisations. The UCPTE was thus intended as an informal forum for problem solving and cooperation in the field of electricity generation and transmission. The UCPTE was, however, not an entirely European creation. As a part of the OEEC Electrical Committee work a number of European electrical engineers visited the USA in 1949 on behalf of the Economic Cooperation Administration (ECA), the US organisation that led the European Recovery Program. The engineers visited and studied two American power pools or interconnection groups as they are also called, the South Atlantic & Central Areas Group (SA & CA Group) and the PennsylvaniaNew Jersey Interconnection (PNJ). The PNJ was a closely-knit pool employing a central system control whereas SA & CA Group was a loosely-knit without such as control. The SA & CA Group had been established in 1928, consisted of both privately and publicly owned utilities. Geographically, it was the largest power pool in the world at the time, comprising over eighty utilities. The association was voluntary and each utility was responsible for its own system operation. The committee concluded that this model would suite the European cooperation well. These conclusions, however, was perhaps not what Economic Cooperation Administration (ECA) had intended. It tried to induce the Europeans to finance and operate the new power plants on a supranational level, something its governments resisted due to national priorities and its engineers deemed unattainable due to politics, an “uncertain” political situation.34 The view among European engineers and professionals was something that had gained foot during the interwar years in international and professional organisations such as the Conférence Internationale des Grands Réseaux de Transport d’Énergie Électriques à Très Haute Tension (CIGRE) founded in 1921 and the Union Internationale des Producteurs et Distributeurs d’Énergie Électrique (UNIPEDE) founded in 34 Lagendijk (2008), p. 156. Sida 21 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman 1925 and the World Power Conference (WPC) founded in 1924. These organisations, as their names implies, were concerned with, respectively, the construction and technical issues of high voltage transmission networks, everything from the production to distribution of electricity and issues related to exploitation of energy resources in general.35 But national legislation was also a topic that was discussed in those circles. The reason was that after World War I governments had actively supported electrification, and power exchanges across national border therefore became subjected to the approval of national governments. However, many engineers and professionals saw a more liberal and international system as economically and technically more rational, employing a better economic mix and better load factors.36 However, the general conclusion was that the national priorities could not be counteracted; regulation was something that must be taken as a fact.37 In sum then, international cooperation could take place, but had to conform to national programs and national regulation. Production, transmission and distribution of electricity in the Nordic countries Though the Nordic countries in many respects share a common history, they differ rather substantially when it comes to the organisation and ownership of facilities for production, transmission and distribution of electrical power. The first is endowment in natural resources. Norway has a potential 172 TWh of hydropower per year, Sweden about half that amount, Finland four times less than Sweden and Denmark none.38 Denmark thus had to resort to thermal power, while Norway could develop its vast natural resources of hydropower, a favourable situation, more or less shared by Sweden and to a lesser extent by Finland. But this difference was in fact an advantage when it came to Nordic cooperation as we will soon see. But before we proceed to the cooperation, let me provide a sketch of these countries when it comes to production, transmission and distribution of electricity. Denmark Electricity generation had evolved locally in Denmark. On the countryside as rural cooperatives and in the cities as the responsibilities of the municipalities.39 Integration into regional systems began in the 1920s, starting in eastern Denmark. The power companies established a formal organisation in 1954 called Kraftimport to coordinate the operation, planning, building and integration of the system. A corresponding organisation, ELSAM, was established in western Denmark in 1956. In 1990, the local ownership structure remains: cooperatives and municipalities own the over 100 distribution 35 Lagendijk (2008), pp. 58-59. Ibid., p. 66. 37 Ibid., pp. 59-60. 38 Thue (1995), p. 17. 39 Ibid., p. 19. 36 Sida 22 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman utilities which in turn own the 12 production companies and its production facilities. The state is and has not been involved in ownership of production and transmission of electrical power. Norway Local municipalities also played an important role in the electrification of Norway; electricity was mainly produced in self-sufficient, small regional systems.40 But in the 1920s the state becomes directly involved, by creating the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) with the responsibility of exploiting state owned water falls, completing a power station 100 kilometres east of Oslo in 1928, in the regional area Östlandet. This station became a part of a regional power pool 1932 of power companies, utilising the different water reservoirs to create one of the largest power pools at that time in the world, with 60 power stations and a total generating capacity of 900 MW, slightly less that the proposed UCPTE pool referred to above. The cooperation had previously been conducted on a bilateral basis. A requirement to join the pool was a total of 5MW production capacity.41 In Ostrom’s words, a requirement of provision to join the CPR. The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) provided the main force to establish four power pools between 1953 and 1961 similar to the one in Östlandet. Despite this integration, Norway, similar to Denmark, has to a large degree retained the local character and regional self-sufficiency of electricity production. About two thirds in 1990 was produced and used for ordinary consumption (excluding electricity-intensive industry) within the same region.42 NVE produced slightly below a third of the total generating capacity and owned about 80 per cent of the high voltage transmission network.43 Finland The regional hydropower systems in Finland were built by both private companies and the state owned company Imatran Voima in the 1920s. There were no interconnections between the systems, however, so the private and public utility competed for customers. In the 1930s all hydropower resources in the populous south had been exploited, which meant that the northern resources had to be exploited and transferred to the south. This, however, required large investments. This, in turn, allowed the state gain influence after 1950s; the private power industry escaped nationalisation with a small margin in 1952. Construction of thermal power plants began in 1960s, and later nuclear power stations, which in 1995 provided a third of the total capacity.44 In 1990, Imatran Voima 40 Thue (1995), pp. 19-20. Kaijser (1995), p. 48. Kaijser (1995), pp. 41-42. 42 Ibid., p. 48. 43 Thue (1995), p. 14. 44 Kaijser (1995), pp. 42-45. 41 Sida 23 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman produced 20-25 per cent of the total capacity, which made it the single largest producer in Finland. It owned approximately 70 per cent of the high voltage transmission network.45 Sweden Of all the Nordic countries, Sweden is the country where the state has had the most direct involvement in the production and transmission of electrical power. The Swedish State Power Board, Vattenfall, created in 1909, had no foreign predecessors. It built Trollhätte hydropower station in 1910, the Porjus hydropower station in 1914, Älvkarleby hydropower station the year after that, and quickly established itself as the major electrical power producer. One reason for the state drive was the electrification of the railroads; another, the ownership of waterfalls, which, however, was not uncommon in Europe. 46 In the 1920s a system that exemplifies the economic mix described above was created. It consisted of the power stations in Trollhättan and Älvkarleby with a common reservoir in the lake Vänern and a thermal power station in Västerås.47 However, this was a planned system, not a power pool, since Vattenfall owned and operated all facilities. A power pool was created later, in 1964, at the initiative of the Waterpower Association. The purpose of this organisation was to promote the interests of private and municipal power companies as a counterweight to Vattenfall.48 Like in the Norwegian power pool, there was a minimum requirement on production capacity, and in addition, on reserve capacity. Again in Ostrom’s words, a requirement of provision to join the CPR. Similar to Finland, Sweden had to exploit hydro resources in the north and transfer power to its more populous south. The state, via Vattenfall, gained an even larger influence than in Finland when in 1946 Vattenfall was accorded the sole responsibility to plan, build and operate the complete high-voltage transmission network.49 In 1990, Vattenfall produced about 55 per cent of the total capacity. If the nine next largest producers were added, their total capacity reached 90 per cent. Nuclear power produced half of the total power production in 1995. Nordic cooperation prior to Nordel I will consider two examples of Nordic cooperation in the field of electricity generation prior to the creation of Nordel. As early as 1915, a typical hydro-thermal cooperation, as described above, was established between the Danish company NESA and the Swedish company Sydkraft. This was thus a bilateral agreement. These companies built a submarine cable between Helsingör in Denmark and Helsingborg in Sweden. The main incentive for cooperation was the excess hydro power during the summer in Sweden. The 45 Thue (1995), p. 14. Kaijser (1994), pp. 165-166. 47 Kaijser (1995), pp. 38-39. 48 Svenska Kraftverksföreningen. http://www.ne.se/svenska-kraftverksföreningen, Nationalencyklopedin, accessed 2011-05-20. 49 Kaijser (1995), p. 44. 46 Sida 24 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman cooperation proved useful for Denmark during the coal shortages of the World War One, though electrical power could later flow in the other direction during periods of water shortage in Sweden. On the whole, this was thus a mutually beneficial cooperation.50 A more difficult cooperation to establish was that between Norway and Denmark, and Norway and Sweden. The reason was the divided view in Norway on how and who should exploit the country’s large potential hydropower resources. On the one hand stood rural interests, energy-intensive industry and bourgeois politicians who thought that these resources should be used to the benefit of Norway, and the on the other Social Democrats that pushed for industrial cooperation. 51 Proposals in the 1920s, 30s and after the Second World War to export Norwegian hydropower to Denmark, either through the Danish peninsula Jutland (western Denmark) or via Sweden to eastern Denmark, all failed. The last of these proposals, however, was in the end rejected in 1950 by a newly elected centre-right Danish government after Norwegian and Danish Social Democrat ministers – after a fierce debate in the Norwegian parliament where the price of electricity had been notched up a few levels – had managed to reach an initial agreement. These large projects, then, failed to materialise. A local project between Norway and Sweden was, however, in the end successful. But only after some political wrangling. The initiative was taken in 1951 by the local power company in Trondheim, Norway, who put forward a proposal to the Stockholm power company. The Norwegian plan was to build a large hydropower plant in Nea close to the Swedish border. In order to utilise the full capacity of the plant from the start, that is to use the economies of scale, the Stockholm company was offered a contract with an option, valid for 30 years, to buy up to half of the capacity and in return help financing the construction.52 This was thus a typical example of staggering as described above, on a bilateral level. The municipalities in Trondheim and Stockholm put a stamp of approval on the project and it was then submitted up one level to the national governments for formal approval. The Swedish government had no objections; the Norwegian, however, raised strong reservations and simply said that a local municipality could not engage in international agreements. The project was not ditched, however, but it must be handled on the appropriate level, that is by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE). After re-negotiation and a close vote in the Norwegian parliament, the project could finally go ahead. Contrary to the plan, but beneficial to future Norwegian-Swedish cooperation, was the fact that the Stockholm company sold power to the company in Trondheim, 50 Kaijser (1997), p. 6. Ibid., pp. 7-9, 19. 52 Ibid., p. 10. 51 Sida 25 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman and not vice versa, due to water shortages in Norway. Besides the staggering, this project thus also reduced the risk and secured the power balance in Norway.53 Nordel as a model of UCPTE Nordel traced its roots from several sources. In the one hand, the international strands from UCPTE, the international engineer organisations, even the power pools in the US, since the UCPTE became based on these; on the other, the bilateral cooperation between the Nordic power companies, but not least the political attempts to cooperation on a higher, Nordic level. The Nordic countries has been said to have struck a Nordic balance: rather small countries on the European periphery, charting risky waters between the two superpowers and the European cooperation on the continent, preferring Nordic integration, the Atlantic alliance and global organisations to pan-European cooperation, without, however, closing the door to the European cooperation.54 The balance comprised Denmark’s and Norway’s NATO membership, Sweden’s non-alignment and Finland’s pact with the Soviet Union "Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance" signed in April 1948.55 An embodiment of the Nordic integration was the Nordic Council, an advisory body consisting of Nordic parliamentarians, aiming at cooperation between the Nordic parliaments and governments.56 Another is the NORDEK proposal discussed 1968-70,57 a cooperation plan on economic and industrial development, including a customs union, which, however, never was realised due to Finland’s rejection of the treaty. The official explanation was that the other Nordic countries were making preparations to start negotiations with the European Economic Community (EEC), which would make, the argument went, NORDEK more or less irrelevant.58 But the Nordic Council nevertheless ignited the creation of Nordel. In 1962, the council proposed that a civil servant committee originally devoted to a Finnish-Swedish cooperation aimed at exploiting the Kalix and Torne rivers, a project that never became realised, be given a new charter and turned into a permanent body for cooperation within the field of electricity production. The Nordic power companies, however, were reluctant and rejected this proposal. They seemed to have preferred an organisation according to its own lines. The Swedish organisation for power pooling, Centrala Driftledningen (CDL), a voluntary body from the Second World War when a closer cooperation between the Swedish power producers became necessary, invited the Nordic power companies in December for discussion on an organisation along the lines of UCPTE. It should also be 53 Kaijser (1997), pp. 10-11. Lagendijk (2008), pp. 112-113. Solem (1977), pp. 21-46 (chapters 2 and 3, "Scandinavian Administrative Cooperation" and "Origin and Development of the Nordic Council"), 66-86 (chapter 6 "Integration and Economics"). 55 Lagendijk (2008), pp. 112-113. 56 Nordiska rådet. http://www.ne.se/lang/nordiska-rådet, Nationalencyklopedin, accessed 2011-05-21. 57 Nordek. http://www.ne.se/nordek, Nationalencyklopedin, accessed 2011-05-21. 58 Solem (1977), p. 84. 54 Sida 26 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman mentioned that the Swedish State Power Board, Vattenfall, had organised a Nordic conference on power pooling the previous year where all major Nordic players were present, such as ELSAM, Kraftimport, the power pools in Norway and the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE). A number of committees were set up, such as The Committee for Statistics on Outages, The Committee for Statistics on Electricity Production and Supply and The Committee for Operation and Accountancy Terminology,59 which later came to report its work to Nordel. There was thus a substantial momentum towards cooperation within the power industry besides the political “pressure” from above. Nordel was created in 1962. According to the statutes the association’s main purpose was “to promote international, in particular Nordic, cooperation regarding production, transmission and consumption of electrical energy.” 60 The main and regular tasks included to continually monitor, observe the development of production and consumption of electrical energy in the Nordic countries, to gather and publish statistical data on existing production capacity, make prognoses on consumption and construction. The legacy from UCPTE was also clear. Nordel should be an advising body, that is it had no authority to interfere in the individual companies’ internal, commercial or operational activities; the organisation should consist of people, whose field of work was electricity production and supply. The original proposal from CDL had included a line stating that the individual persons, members should “represent Nordic power industry as whole, not their parent companies”. 61 This was, however, omitted in the final version of the statutes. It elected a chairman and a vice chairman which rotated on a three-year basis and circulated among member countries. The chairman’s company carried the cost of the organisation’s secretariat and called the board’s annual meeting. As UCPTE, Nordel had no budget of its own budget. Besides the board, Nordel could also, if necessary, appoint committees for specific purposes, which then could meet as required. Decisions were taken with majority vote if no unanimous could be attained. It is thus clear then, that it was opted for a loose-knit, informal and flexible organisation based on mutual trust between its members. Let me reconnect to Ostrom’s theory. What was Nordel’s institutional position? I will stipulate the level where the activities, operation, construction and the power exchanges took place as the operational level. Composed of people from the individual companies, Nordel worked on the collective level. It could, as an advising body, make proposals to the operational level, which, however, the operational level could disregard if they wished. I will stipulate the national, political level (parliament and government) as the constitutional level. Although the private, cooperative and 59 Nordel, ed. Sven O. Lalander (1988), pp. 16-17. Statutes for Nordel approved at the constitutive meeting May 9, 1963. 61 Nordiska Rådet (1963), pp. 379-380. 60 Sida 27 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman municipal companies should conform and operate according to its “charter” from the state, cooperatives, municipalities or its shareholders , this was a relation between the individual company and its owners and as such had more of the character of the operational level. Nordel’s purpose and tasks concerned common company issues, regardless of the formal ownership structure of the companies, and its specific tasks concerned the Nordic level. The relevant constitutional level, then, must be the national political level. The institutional place of Nordel interpreted in such a way means that the organisation’s main constraints were on the national political level; it could not become an authoritative body with supra-national and wide-ranging power. On the other hand, it was a private organisation, members were appointed by companies, not the state. In sum, Nordel could advise and recommend companies on operational rules and policies, but not force conformance or act as an authority to, for example, settle disputes. The day-to-day decisions on provision, appropriation, monitoring and enforcement of operational rules were ultimately taken by the companies. Nordel was, however, free to decide who should be eligible to participate on its collective level and what rules should govern the collective level. In that sense, it was free from the constitutional level, but as an advising body, however, and had no authority over national policies. Power exchange This main section will deal with the bilateral rules and agreements used in the power exchanges, but also the estimates conducted regularly regarding the water supplies since these guided the agreements and constituted a fundamental uncertainty in the operations. I will end the section with a discussion of the recommendations Nordel proposed. Rules and agreements governing the power exchange Power exchange and related questions was the responsibility of The Committee for Operating Problems, created in 1963. 62 The power exchanges could either be of excess power or firm power, that is power delivered irrespective of capacity situation. Excess power was, however, by far the most exchanged by volume. The power exchanges grew from about 2 per cent of the total production between the creation of Nordel in 1963 to about 6 per cent in 1972. 63 Besides outages and other operating disturbances the committee worked with a number of other issues related to the operation of the system and the power exchanges such as creation of a system administration for power balance (consumption vs. production), calculation of the economic value of power as well as pricing.64 But also more uncommon issues, such as how the difference in numbering of weeks in the 62 Minutes of meeting from Nordel board meeting October 16, 1963. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 82. Nordel, ed. Sven O. Lalander (1988) p.67 figure 4. 64 Minutes of meeting from Nordel board meeting August 26, 1966. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 82. 63 Sida 28 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman Nordic countries should be handled, something that complicated the accounting of the power exchanges.65 A harmonisation of the week numbering was, however, under way in the Nordic Council.66 The board’s explicit reason for creating the committee was to formalise and lift the regular, but bilateral, discussions about the power pooling and the power exchanges to a more strategic and formal level. In this way, the board argued, Norway, which was not to the same extent as the other Nordic countries participating in the regular bilateral discussion, could be drawn into the general exchange of information. The aim was thus very much in line with the model used in UCPTE, which, as we saw, created a standardised form on which utilities could state whether they intended to import or export power. In sum, a large part of The Committee for Operating Problems was hence devoted to lowering the transaction costs pertaining to the power exchanges. But as I mentioned above, bilateral agreement of temporary power exchange had existed before the creation of Nordel. How did the rules look like? In the spring 1967 they were as follows.67 Power exchanges between Denmark and Sweden was conducted by either the Danish organisation for the producers in eastern Denmark, Kraftimport, and the private Swedish company Sydkraft, or the Danish organisation for the producers in western Denmark, ELSAM, and the Swedish State Power Board, Vattenfall. These parties used a method called split-the-savings method. This method was also used in the Swedish power pool created 1964, mentioned above, and, in addition, was also widely used, at least later during the 70s and 80s, in the USA.68 The transaction price was the average of the marginal costs of producing a unit of energy between the seller and the buyer.69 The marginal cost is the incremental cost of producing one more unit of energy. In other words, the incentives were that the buyer could buy cheaper than he could produce himself, and the seller that he could get a higher price than normally. In the US, this exchange of energy goes under the name economy energy.70 The overall result in the total Nordel system would then be to shift the production temporarily to where it was the most cost efficient. The Danish and Swedish parties had regular meetings to discuss the balance between production potential and estimated demand (the power balance) and whether import or export would be necessary. An agreement was then worked out based on these needs. 65 Minutes of meeting from Nordel board meeting August 27, 1965. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 82. Minutes of meeting from Nordel board meeting August 26, 1966. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 82. 67 Overview of current system for power exchanges between the Nordic countires, spring 1967. (”Översikt våren 1967 av nuvarande system för kraftaffärer mellan de nordiska länderna.”) Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 83. 68 Cramer & Tschirhart (1983), p. 28 69 For example, company A has marginal cost per energy unit of 2 öre/kWh while company B has marginal cost of 4 öre/kWh. The (average) transaction price then becomes 3 öre/kWh. 70 Cramer & Tschirhart (1983), p. 26. 66 Sida 29 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman The exchanges between Denmark and Sweden was of the type hydro-thermal power exchanges, Denmark importing Swedish excess hydropower during the summer months and exporting thermal power when Swedish water flows were low. The Danish organisations demanded a 10 per cent net profit to engage in an exchange. This level seems, however, to have been the general criteria in the exchanges, and not only in Denmark.71 Power exchanges between Finland and Sweden were conducted by the Finnish state-owned Imatran Voima and Vattenfall. Long-term planning information, such as estimates of water supplies and consumption, was exchanged once a year. An agreement was made if the difference in estimated marginal costs between the parties was sufficiently high to motivate an exchange. In the Finnish and Swedish systems, dominated by hydropower with the addition of some thermal power, the difference in marginal cost was most likely the result of temporary differences in the supply of water, which affected the so called water value, the value of the electrical power in economic terms of a unit of water. Scarcity meant a higher price. (I will explain these cost principles in the next section.) The price was set as the parties “shared the profit equally”,72 which probably meant the same as split-the-savings method. The parties in Norway and Sweden were The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) and in Sweden The Power Industry’s Committee for Power Pooling with Norway (KSN),73 which negotiated the power exchanges. The Swedish companies were in most cases Vattenfall, but could also include Sydkraft and Stockholms Elverk. Besides the power exchanges, Vattenfall had an agreement on using the water reservoirs of NVE as a power reserve. The parties exchanged price information regularly, the highest buying price and the lowest selling price, on which an agreement was then based. The procedure was thus similar to the bidding in an auction. A general clause in the agreement stipulated that if Sweden bought, the price could not be lower than the price of the same type of power that could be obtained in Sweden. In other words, a sort of protection against price dumping for those Swedish producers. Buying from third parties was, however, normally an option available in an economy energy transaction in the US,74 though of course that, as here, I assume depended on the actual contract. In contrast to the other countries Sweden had agreements with (Sweden was, due to her geographical position, always one of the parties in the Nordic power exchanges), Norway did not use 71 Nordel (1971), p. 15. Overview of current system for power exchanges between the Nordic countires, spring 1967. (”Översikt våren 1967 av nuvarande system för kraftaffärer mellan de nordiska länderna.”) Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 83. 73 Kraftindustrins Samarbetsråd för samkörning med Norge, KSN. 74 Cramer & Tschirhart (1983), p. 26. 72 Sida 30 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman the water value and the marginal cost (although these were calculated for planning purposes75) as a basis for an agreement. Instead, the Norwegians used something called the determining year. This rule was used as planning criteria and worked in the following way. Let us say we have a series of historical data for 10 preceding years. Of these years, we deduct the ten per cent, in this case one year, with the lowest water flows. The year with lowest water flows in the remaining 9 years is the determining year.76 If the estimated production in the current year fell below the level this year, the country was in a shortage situation, which may have meant rationing.77 This probably meant that, although it depends on how the risks were calculated, the power available for exchange was lower than if the water value and the marginal cost alone were used. This is, as we saw above, in accordance with Norway’s tradition of security of supply and holding of reserve capacity.78 Estimating power available for exchange and calculating marginal costs Of significant importance for the power exchanges was how much potential power was available. In connection with Ostrom we could say, how many resource units were available to withdraw and put out for exchange when domestic customers had been supplied? In addition, since the electricity systems had become an integrated part of modern societies, power outages were to be avoided, which otherwise could have detrimental effects on the economy, costs on industry and the general public, production planning activity was normal procedure in all countries. In a system as the Nordic, where a major part of electricity was produced by hydropower, the knowledge of the current and future status of water in the reservoirs was of crucial importance.79 In such so called energy dimensioned systems (dominated, or where a large part consists of hydropower) it is not absolutely certain that power is available at all times, especially during dry years with little precipitation. Thermal power systems are, on the other hand, effect dimensioned, dimensioned for the top load (which, however, does not last for ever), such as Denmark. Such systems can provide security of supply, provided that fuel is available. In Norway, a system almost completely consisting of hydro power, employed a special committee within the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) devoted to survey and secure water supply.80 In other words, similar to Ostrom’s appropriators and providers in, for example, irrigation systems, the power producers must live the basic uncertainty of rainfall. 75 Nordel (1971), enclosure 6. Ibid., p. 14. 77 Ibid., p. 14. 78 Kaijser (1995), p. 48. 79 Nordel (1971), pp. 7-13. 80 Norsk komité for törrårssikring. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 83. 76 Sida 31 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman As was implicitly indicated above, the basis for the marginal cost was the variable cost, in a hydropower system the water value, water value [price/energy unit], a variable cost,81 or in general the power value, which covers both hydropower and thermal power systems. The variable costs in hydro based systems are, in reality, negligible, but since availability of water is not absolutely certain and it may be necessary to supplant it with other sources such as thermal power or imports, it is thus an opportunity cost. The water value was obtained by modelling the actual system, using historical data and statistical analysis.82 For long-term planning, computer programs were used for calculations and simulation. The result was a water value as a function of water content in reservoirs and time of year. This was the principal method in all hydropower-dominated countries.83 Short term planning, however, and thereby the power exchanges, was mainly a manual procedure dependent on the experience and knowledge of the planner. In Denmark, a system with only fossil fuel the marginal cost is mainly dependent on plant efficiency and fuel price.84 Although the fuel prices may vary, the calculation is less complicated than for the hydro based systems. This meant that even short-term planning could be done with computer programs.85 Estimating the power value was a part of the regular planning work. Even Norway, although, as we saw above, it did not use this as the basis for the power exchanges, estimated the power value for use in its planning.86 Since only the marginal cost was used as a basis for power exchange, only variable costs determined the exchange. Fixed costs was not included the transactions of power exchange. Nordel’s recommendations regarding power exchange If bilateral principles regarding the power exchanges were already established and in regular use, what became Nordel’s contribution in this field? As perhaps can be expected, it more or less reaffirmed the practice in use. In a report published in 1971 The Committee for Operating Problems recommended that the production planning and the power exchanges should be based on the estimated power value and marginal costs and that the profits should be shared equally between seller and buyer.87 The Norwegian “determining year” was, on the other hand, not included in the recommendations, and thus not approved as a common practise. A more significant deviation from the bilaterally established rules was the introduction of a price ceiling on the seller’s profit. At times of scarcity or shortages, I assume the price of electricity could 81 Nordel (1971), p. 7. Ibid., pp. 7-10. 83 Ibid., p. 7-10 and eclosure no. 6. 84 Ålfors (1980), p. 44. 85 Nordel (1971), p. 2. 86 Ibid., enclosure 6. 87 Ibid. 82 Sida 32 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman rise well above the normal price level, although this did not necessarily show up at the end customer. Shortages may also have led to the invoking of rationing and use of the rationing price. The rationing prices used in the Nordic countries between the companies were the following, as stated in the 1971 report from The Committee for Operating Problems. In Sweden, 500 Skr/MWh, Finland 600 Fmk/MWh. Norway employed a stepwise increase of the price, where the rationing price for the first 10 per cent of the total load increased linearly from 150 to 200 Nkr/MWh, for the next 15 per cent linearly from 200 to 1000 Nkr/MWh and thereafter constantly at 1000 Nkr/MWh.88 As a comparison, the average Norwegian price offered Vattenfall in 1963 via Tröndelag (mid-Norway) was approximately 46 Nkr/MWh, transferred and delivered at a power station in mid-Sweden (an offer, in addition, too high to be an interesting proposition for the Swedish companies).89 No rationing price was reported for Denmark, most likely due to it being an effect dimensioned system, a system that always could supply power provided that the top load had been correctly estimated and that fuel was available. In addition, this was in 1971, two years before the OPEC crisis, after which this assumption would have been severely questioned. The report notes that in situations of scarcity, the price may grow up to the rationing price, which is decided more on macro-economic principles than strictly business economy, that is the costs that is incurred on the producer. In this situation of perceived or announced shortage, scarcity therefore, the principle of split-the-savings method, the report argued, would inhibit the exchange that ought to be in the interest of both parties, thus implying that the price may be set more of “political” reasons and unjustified fear of true, absolute scarcity than the situation actually motivated. But the report also acknowledges the incentives within the corporate world, for example, the seller might withhold excess power to speculate on increased demand and a worsening situation for the buyer, which would push the price higher. Moreover, the absence of a price ceiling could, potentially, the report noted, lead to overinvestment in the individual systems, thereby rendering the power pooling irrelevant.90 As noted in an American economics journal in 1983, in this situation the split-the-savings method may create a disincentive for the buyer in a power pool.91 For a formal, closely-knit pool, this might prove potentially unstable, disintegrating the pool since the benefits of the pool is shared unevenly. The article mentions, as an example, the large discrepancies that can exist between, on the one hand, buyers using oil in their own production and, on the other, sellers using nuclear or hydro 88 These are contemporary currency levels. I have used the abbreviations in the report to denote the national currencies. 89 Minutes of meeting from Nordel board meeting October 9, 1964. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 82. 90 Nordel (1971), p. 16. 91 Cramer & Tschirhart (1983), p. 28-29. Sida 33 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman power. The sellers receive a high mark-up, a price far above the marginal cost, which serves as a clear disincentive to the buyer. According to the article, the large discrepancies between buyers and sellers at that point (1983) in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Power Pool (PJM), probably a development of the power pool I mentioned above in connection with the UCPTE, the one the European electrical engineers visited in 1949, the Pennsylvania-New Jersey Interconnection (PNJ), there was “…growing pressure within the pool to abandon the split-the-savings method”.92 One solution, the article suggested, was, just as Nordel recommended, a price ceiling on the seller’s price, a limit to the mark-up. However, a price ceiling, if it were to be introduced, must meet certain requirements, the report specifically argued. For example, it must be easy to manage, used solely in extreme situations and in these cases invoked automatically. Moreover, it must not cause over- or underinvestment, that is set too high or too low respectively. In short, the price ceiling must have a low transaction cost and not introduce distorting effects on the incentives to investment. The price ceiling was apparently implemented and in use in 1980. 93 If that included the rest of the recommendations (that the planning and power exchanges should be based on power value and marginal costs, the profits evenly shared) without exclusion, this thesis cannot say, but I suspect so. What is certain, however, is that Nordel reviewed the recommendations in 1978 and in 1986, but the principles were reaffirmed.94 These rules, then, were stable. The appropriators / providers could then, as Ostrom argues, find solutions on their own, without the help from external bodies. Before moving on to the coordinated construction, I would like to make a final note: only variable costs were included in the power exchanges, which means that no incentive was introduced to push investments towards a permanently cheaper producer. Including fixed costs might have, at least in theory, have pushed construction of plants to the country where it was the cheapest. However, the main purpose of the power exchanges in the Nordic system, as I understand it and as was the case elsewhere I suppose, was the utilisation of excess hydropower, a situation where fixed costs would be wrong. But one may also question if a reason the fixed costs were excluded, was not to destabilise a system based on, as the UCPTE power pool, rather independent and self-sufficient sub-systems that may from time to time need to buy power. The basic plan was domestic self-sufficiency, supplemented, if necessary, with imports for increased reliability and cost efficiency. 92 Cramer & Tschirhart (1983), p. 29, note 9. Ålfors (1980), p. 41. 94 Nordel, ed. Sven O. Lalander (1988), p. 33. 93 Sida 34 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman Planning and coordinating construction The theme in this section will, as the heading indicates, be about the planning and the coordinating activities regarding building plants and high-tension transmission lines. This was mainly, as the power exchanges, a bilateral affair between the power companies. But Nordel and its Planning committee, created in 1966, made important contribution when it came to strategic information and knowledge. Charting the unknown future, making prognoses was namely as important as the actual building since the required capital often were huge, the facilities took a long time to build and should be in operation for many years, probably decades. Let us start with the discussions at the board meetings of Nordel and the efforts to estimate future electricity consumption, continue with examples of joint ventures and end with a discussion of the reports and recommendations of the Planning Committee. Estimating and stimulating future consumption As we saw above, the statutes of Nordel stipulated that one of the main tasks was to follow the consumption of electrical energy, set up prognoses for the consumption and plans of construction. This was also a regular, and quite large, point on the agenda of the annual board meetings. Due to the different energy systems on the one hand Denmark (effect-dimensioned thermal power) and Finland, Norway and Sweden (mainly energy-dimensioned hydro power), the estimation was conducted differently. In Denmark, the prognosis was made by extrapolating from the maximum load during the previous 10 years. In Finland, Norway and Sweden, the principle was to try to estimate the future consumption in each sector of the society.95 The investigating was done by ELSAM and Kraftimport in Denmark, in Finland by Imatran Voima, in Norway by The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) and in Sweden by Centrala Driftsledningen (CDL). CDL used the Ministry of Finance’s 5-year plans for the economic development as a basis for their reports. The Norwegian NVE had in 1969 also made a similar move, based on similar data, by initiating cooperation with the Norwegian Ministry of Finance.96 These latter cooperations indicate, I believe, the importance of electricity in modern society and in these countries. These prognoses provided the foundation on which the construction plans were made. In Sweden the general worry was that construction could not keep step with consumption, with shortages and rationing as a result. But it was also the other way around, that the consumption could not keep up with construction, with overcapacity and unnecessarily high capital costs as a result. Due to the longterm character of these infrastructure projects, the consumption must be encouraged “just about right” in order for demand to have grown suitably to fit the supply of a new, high-capacity, cost95 96 Nordlöf (1969), p. 44. Ibid., pp. 44-47. Sida 35 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman efficient, power station.97 Though there were certainly differences in these considerations among the Nordic countries, I suspect the basic consideration of matching construction with consumption without hampering economic growth was much the same. The question of encouragement was discussed in Nordel at the board meeting in 1967.98 The statutes’ formulation to “promote” consumption seems, in fact, to have been taken literally. In other words, it was not just about foreseeing the future, also to shape it. The benefits of promoting consumption of electricity was at this time, a rather widespread idea in the Swedish power industry. More consumption would make profits for the power companies, which could then invest in more efficient power plants, which in turn would result in orders to the Swedish manufacturing industry. The more efficient plants would make even lower tariffs possible, which in turn would lower the costs for the energy-intensive industry, which could invest in more efficient … In other words, a positive spiral of economic growth.99 This view was expressed by the Swedish representative at the meeting in 1967 when he noted the connection between consumption and tariffs and between growing consumption and reduced marginal costs, that is economies of scale. This concerned both, as we saw above, both plants and transmission lines. The conclusion in the Swedish power industry had made, the Swedish representative noted, was that marketing campaigns and promoting consumption was a good economic investment. A larger consumption, in other words, was both conducive to the power companies and to the society at large. Tariffs, prices to end customers, were, however, out of control. The Danish chairman had at the meeting proposed a discussion on the principles and differences of tariffs in the Nordic countries. The board members, however, concluded that these were “highly influenced by politics” and not much one could do about, and the chairman’s proposal fell flat. Marketing was thus a more promising road to higher profits. Consequently, some of the larger power companies in Sweden had established market organisations “which had grown considerably during latest years”. Vattenfall had set aside 2,5 million (in contemporary price level) for marketing purposes for the year 1967/68. This was 0,3 per cent of the total budget. The increase in domestic heating were said to be due to market campaigns organised jointly by the power companies, manufacturers of electrical appliances and electricians. There had even been established a specific domestic heating section in FERA, The Association for the Rational Use of Electricity, an association created in 1927. The focus in the campaigns the coming year would be on lighting appliances. A sunny day, the minutes reports, exposes people to about 100 000 lux and clouded day to about 10 000. Yet people were satisfied with only 100 lux in homes and in offices. Modern lighting, 97 Högselius & Kaijser (2007), pp. 43-44. Minutes of meeting from Nordel board meeting August 25, 1967. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 83. 99 Högselius & Kaijser (2007), pp. 40-41. 98 Sida 36 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman providing more light and consuming more energy, would therefore automatically, the argument went, improve the competitiveness of domestic heating. But not all subscribed to the view on the importance of marketing and that consumption should be promoted. Finland referred the question of marketing to the power station associations. Norway had no marketing whatsoever due to the reason for keeping down consumption, perhaps, as we saw above, to ensure that industry had enough available power. Strategic investigations Besides the prognoses about the future consumption, Nordel was also deeply engaged in producing strategic information and knowledge about coordinated construction and other technical issues related to the operation of a future, more integrated, Nordic electricity system. Again, in Ostrom’s words, these were aims at reducing uncertainty and lack of knowledge regarding the common-pool resource, the expected benefits of tighter cooperation. Nordel’s Planning Committee was created in 1966, three years after the organisation’s inception.100 Its creating was, however, not self-evident. It was proposed already in 1963, during the first meeting after the constituting meeting, but gained no unanimous support at this point.101 The original aim was to coordinate plans of construction, investigate the need for improvements or new transmission cross-border transmission lines. Most members saw no immediate need, since coordinated construction, they argued, was mainly a bilateral affair. Another reason for the reluctance might have been the current amount of work. As we saw above, a number of committees had been created during the power pooling conference organised by Centrala driftsledningen (CDL), in 1961. Apart from preoccupying staff in the individual companies, the work of these committees was also reported to and discussed during the Nordel board meetings. This was, as far as I can judge, a fairly large amount of work, given that it had to be carried out at the same time as other, regular duties at the companies. In other words, reducing uncertainty and lack of knowledge carried a certain amount of transformation costs, costs for investigations and committee meetings. However, many of these investigations and meetings were related to plans for physically and technically altering and changing the electricity system. Ostrom mainly refers to transformation costs refer to change of rules, that is institutional change. However, we could call also the costs related to the investigations information costs, costs related to making strategic decisions. Costs for committee is work is a regular feature in 100 101 Minutes of meeting from Nordel board meeting August 26, 1966. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 82. Minutes of meeting from Nordel board meeting October 16, 1963. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 82. Sida 37 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman power pools, simply due to the necessity of making collective decisions. The costs, time and expenses, carries a potential disincentive for forming a pool.102 Although the Planning Committee experienced a somewhat reluctant start, it soon gained firm support and granted wide and strategic responsibilities, for example: to conduct a survey of the total power balance (consumption vs. production) for the Nordic countries in the next 5-10 years, coordinate construction planning for power production in general and specifically large power plants, investigating the need for improvements regarding or completely new high-tension transmission lines or other measures that could lead to lower costs, investigating the distribution of load in the total Nordic system, investigating the need for exchange of power due to low water supply and high loads, coordinating the development of computer programs for planning purposes, provide advice regarding transmission problems and disturbances such as breakdown or failure of large power plants as well as long-term reserve capacity. 103 The Planning Committee, then, was nothing less than the “think tank” of Nordel. Nordic cooperation was, however, already being carried out in the so called Nordic section of CIGRE’s committee number 13, System planning, Operation and Stability. CIGRE (Conférence Internationale des Grands Réseaux de Transport d’Énergie Électriques à Très Haute Tension) was as I mentioned above concerned with the construction and technical issues of high voltage transmission networks. Whether the “Nordic section” was in fact an official sub-committee of CIGRE’s committee number 13, is unclear. My guess is that it was an unofficial association of Nordic members of the CIGRE committee who met regularly to discuss specific issues concerning the Nordic system. Nevertheless, the Nordic CIGRE committee worked with strategic issues regarding system stability, for example the effect on the transmission network from breakdown and subsequent reconnection of large power stations.104 Well aware of the work of this committee, the Planning Committee therefore argued it must avoid double work and set out to take care of and focus the strategic issues related to construction and improvement aimed at a more integrated Nordic system.105 A looming and important issue seems to have been, both for the Planning Committee and the Nordic CIGRE committee, the introduction of nuclear power. This was seen from the point of view of a network planner’s or network builder’s point of: just another large thermal power plant. The safety issue, so ubiquitous today, though probably discussed within the companies, is completely absent in these documents. Vattenfall conducted calculations in order to determine the appropriate effect of the 102 Cramer & Tschirhart (1983), p. 27. Enclosure no. 3 to minutes of meeting for Nordel board meeting August 25, 1967; point 6 on the agenda. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 83. Minutes of meeting from Nordel Planning Committe meetings in June 7, 1967, and October 26, 1967. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 83. 104 Minutes of meeting from the Nordic CIGRE committe January 18-19, 1967. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 83. 105 Minutes of meeting from Nordel Planning Committe June 7, 1967. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 83. 103 Sida 38 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman future Ringhals nuclear power plants, as well as the effect and necessary improvements on the Swedish and parts of the Nordic network.106 This issue was also discussed in the Planning Committee as well as in the Nordic CIGRE, though with regard to operation and stability. A tool with growing importance when handling technical issues as stability, distribution of load and reserve capacity was computer programs. This seems to have been the case both concerning day-today operations and the long-term system planning. According to the minutes from a meeting in the Nordic section of the CIGRE committee an “extensive amount of work in the field of machine computing has been started at most large Nordic power companies”.107 It was also a field in which the companies cooperated to a large degree. Vattenfall which developed programs for controlling the distribution of load and stability had been provided by data from the Danish company NESA, with the result that development costs had been reduced considerably. Another issue related to stability, and thereby indirectly to the power pooling, was information necessary to evaluate the reliability of the total system and the national sub-systems. Statistics on failures and disturbances was, according to an article in the 1968 annual report, essential when dimensioning and designing a power system.108 This meant, in a power sharing, power exchanging system, a common terminology, statistical categories and definitions. A Nordic committee set up in 1961 during the power pooling conference held by the Swedish Centrala Driftsledningen (CDL), The Committee for Statistics on Outages proposed common definitions of failures, what exactly should be meant by a failure, different types of faults, how they should be classified and how their severity should be graded.109 The committee was thus created before the creation of Nordel, but its work was reported to Nordel and discussed on the Nordel board meetings. These statistics, it was pointed out in the annual report, avoided misunderstandings and made it possible to compare the national subsystems. In other words, to assess whether further power pooling was possible within existing the capacity of the network or if improvements had to be made. The relevance of the common terminology and definitions had to with the fact that Nordel, in its dimensioning rules for the total, Nordic power-exchanging system, recommended that the reliability of the system was expressed in so called fixed network criteria, by which was meant a number of well-defined types of faults that the system must be able to handle without propagating the faults 106 Stability analysis for different sizes of generating capacity in Ringhals. (”Stabilitetsanalyser för olika aggregatstorlekar i Ringhals. Vattenfall 2.2.67.”) Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 83. 107 Enclosure to minutes of meeting from Nordel meeting October 16, 1963. Point 7 on the agenda. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 82. 108 Gustafsson & Nordlöf (1968), p. 36. 109 Report October 1, 1964 from The Committee for Statistics on Outages. Enclosure to point 8 on the agenda to minutes of meeting from Nordel board meeting October 9, 1964. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 82. Sida 39 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman and causing a total system break down. 110 In that way, the common statistics could provide an overview of the status of the system and the sub-systems. This standardisation, the statistics, the terminology and the dimensioning rules, aimed at a system with the same reliability in all its parts in order to be able to “treat the individual national systems as a complete integrated power exchanging system”, that is to exploit and reap the benefits of a fully integrated power exchanging system.111 Standardisation, to be sure, has historically been an important part of the development of large technical systems.112 The gains from power pooling and coordinated construction As I tried to explain in the section “Incentives driving cooperation in electricity systems” above, the main reason for cooperation in electricity systems has to do with increased reliability and cost savings. We had the combination of hydropower with thermal power, using excess hydropower to replace thermal power during seasons of large water flows and thermal power during dry seasons. We also had the hydro-hydro combination, using temporary or natural variations in annual water flows as well as the enlargement of a thermal power system, using the largest, most cost efficient plants to supply the baseload while smaller but quickly started plants could be used as a supplement during periods of peak load, etcetera. In general, what were the estimated, expected, benefits in Nordel from power pooling and coordinated construction? A Nordel report published in 1969 estimates the overall gain from power pooling and coordinated construction to about 90 million SEK per year from 1970 to 1975/76 (contemporary currency level),113 which corresponds to approximately 400-600 million SEK per year in 2006 year’s prices. 114 These figures had been obtained by comparing two hypothetical situations: one where the Danish, Finnish and Swedish systems operated with power pooling under the assumption of no limits in transmission capacity, and one in which the national sub-system were viewed as separate entities, with no power pooling. The estimated gains were due to the peak loads in the participating sub-systems did not coincide, providing an even baseload and enabling economies of scale, and the fact that is the peak load in the total pooled system was lower than the sum of the peak loads in the subsystems, meaning less required installed effect, and by using the temporarily advantageous combination hydropower and thermal power, mostly by letting excess hydropower replace thermal power. The reduction in installed effect was estimated to approximately 110 Appendix ”Dimensioning rules for the power pooling Nordic network” published in (Nordel, 1972) s. 25. Ibid. 112 Kaijser (1994), pp. 202-204. 113 Nordel (1969), pp. 368-369. 114 Sveriges Riksbank/Riksbanken - Priser. Available at: http://www.riksbank.se/templates/Page.aspx?id=26813 [Accessed May 22, 2011]. 111 Sida 40 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman 1000 MW. 115 As comparison, Vattenfall calculated with three sizes of plants for the future nuclear plants Ringhals (the same calculations referred to above concerning possible improvements in the Nordic transmission network): 600, 750 and 900 MW.116 This was thus quite a considerable saving. The gain from the participating sub-systems did not coincide (providing an even baseload and enabling economies of scale) was estimated to about 400 MW per year.117 Though this might look impressive, the total estimated savings was rather low compared to the value of the total electricity generation in the Nordic countries, about 1 per cent.118 But then again, it is necessary to point out the advantage which lay in increased reliability and security of supply, which allowed the partners to import instead of resorting to rationing. In the section “Incentives driving cooperation in electricity systems” above, I also described a specific type of joint venture when it came to investments in production and transmission facilities. The idea was to take advantage of the larger plants’ economies of scale without risking overinvestment and unnecessary high capital costs (that, as we saw above, was a concern among the Swedish planners) by letting a partner company share the cost for construction, but also benefitting by letting it use the plant’s excess capacity. This process was called staggering, or saksning/saxning in Norwegian or Swedish. In Nordel, which was a loosely-knit power pool, this appears for the most part to have been done bilaterally by two companies. As in the principle, one company would construct while the other helped finance by “subscribing” to the power for a limited period, such as a few years. It could also be combined with a counter-trade of energy in the opposite direction, but not necessarily. In sum, this planned procedure, one considered the output of the total system and avoided overinvesting and excessive capital costs. In a report published by the Nordic Council in 1972, but originally prepared for a power pooling conference the same year, the Planning Committee specifically mentions what it considered to be two examples of successful projects. 119 One was between the private Swedish company Sydkraft and the Danish organisation Kraftimport. The agreement had been signed in 1970 and export of power during the years 1975-1979 from Sydkraft’s future nuclear power plant in Barsebäck. The other example had been signed in 1967 and concerned the Swedish State Power Board, Vattenfall, and the 115 Nordel (1969), p. 361, 368. Stability analysis for different sizes of generating capacity in Ringhals. (”Stabilitetsanalyser för olika aggregatstorlekar i Ringhals. Vattenfall 2.2.67.”) Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 83. 117 Nordel (1969), pp. 361, 368. 118 Ibid., p. 369. 119 Nordel (1972), pp. 14-15. 116 Sida 41 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman state-owned Finnish company Imatran Voima, an agreement that concerned export via a new 400kV transmission line to Finland during the years 1970-1976, with and option of extension to 1979. But these types of joint ventures could of course also, in principle, be done not only by planning investments and allocating costs over time. Factors such as suitability of location could also have been considered, irrespective of national borders. This was, and probably is, a procedure that is used occasionally in more closely-knit pools in the USA.120 This was a possibility the Planning Committee discussed, hypothetically, in the report from 1969 referred to above. The hypothetical example was large-scale investments in Norwegian hydropower. In the historical context section above I wrote that Norway has a potential of 172 TWh of hydropower per year, Sweden about half that amount, Finland four times less than Sweden.121 In 1969, the average annual production was slightly over 60 TWh,122 so there was a rather large amount of water resources still available to exploit and the hypothetical example quite realistic, if just technical and economic aspects were considered. But whatever the merits of this way forward, it was not a path the Planning Committee recommended. The reason was the large movement in employment. On the one hand, a temporary and large in increase in Norway, and a similar combined decrease in the other Nordic countries, though somewhat later in the report when discussing the period 1975-1980, the committee seems to think that the idea is worth considering.123 Let us say, for the sake of the argument, that the Planning Committee recommended large-scale investments in Norwegian hydropower, what would the Norwegians think? (for the moment disregarding the fact that Norwegians were, from time to time, members of the committee) During the board meeting in 1964, a proposal under discussion in the Nordic Council was submitted for an opinion from Nordel. The proposal, in the minutes dating from May 1964, was a Swedish-Norwegian joint venture whose main purpose apparently mainly was power export from Norway to Sweden. 124 In an enclosure to the minutes, the Norwegian Ministry of Industry answered the Nordic Council that a major concern in the assessment of the proposal had been the question whether it was compatible with the need to set aside sufficient exploitable and cheap hydro resources for domestic consumption. This was especially important for regions that lagged in economic development, but also in for the competiveness of the Norwegian industry in general. A “radical increase in the export 120 Cramer & Tschirhart (1983), p. 25. Thue (1995), p. 17. 122 Nordel (1969), p. 15. 123 Ibid., pp. 341-342, 377. 124 Minutes of meeting from Nordel board meeting October 9, 1964. Vattenfall Staben F1b vol 82. 121 Sida 42 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman of electrical power from Norway to Sweden, in such a way that the proposal aims at” could therefore not gain the support of the Norwegian Ministry of Industry.125 In the list of consultation bodies were the board of The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), the Department of Industry at the Norwegian Ministry of Industry, the Department of Planning and the Department of Commerce at the Ministry of Finance, Norway’s central bank, the Federation of Norwegian Industries, plus a number of other associations related to the power industry, the electro technical and the manufacturing industry, who without exception rejected the proposal. I have not been able to locate the original proposal,126 but it seems to have been a widely shared view, if we accept the Norwegian Ministry of Industry’s interpretation of the proposal, that Norwegian hydropower should be reserved for Norwegian industry. The Ministry had, on the other hand and in principle, nothing against an investigation of possibilities for closer cooperation within electricity generation. It specifically mentioned Nordel and meant that this organisation was the right forum for the proposal. What was the Swedish view of the proposal? Vattenfall, which had provided an answer to the Swedish Department of Communications, thought that considering the current prices on regular power from Norway, it was at present out of the question to buy power from Norway. A Swedish member of the board said that the private Swedish power companies were of the same view as Vattenfall. I am not in position to judge whether projects as this, initiated at the institutional level of the Nordic Council, in general stood a lesser chance than the bilateral, that apparently were more frequent, to gain approval. I also would like to remind the reader of the difficulties the local power companies in Trondheim, Norway and in Stockholm had in reaching an agreement. These proposals both concern Norway, and the country no doubt appears to have had, perhaps still has, a highly divided view on who is entitled to the countries rich resources and how they should be used. Nevertheless, the Planning Committee’s assumption and starting point in this matter was not to question the national programs, but instead see what “modifications” could be achieved that could be favourable to the overall Nordic system.127 Concerning the location of the production, they concluded that “nothing has yet emerged that indicates that it should be advantageous to systematically locate baseload 125 Copy of letter September 16, 1964, from the Norwegian Ministry of Industry to the Nordic Council. Enclosure to minutes of meeting from Nordel board meeting October 9, 1964. Translation by author. 126 It is not on the list of proposals in the Nordic Council’s series Nordiska Råd for the year 1964, which it ought to have been if the proposal was submitted that year. 127 Nordel (1969), p. 342. Sida 43 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman production outside the own [national] system”.128 This is a very similar approach as one of the strategies pursued by the UCPTE some eighteen years earlier, supporting the national programs of electricity generation, which would resulting in a limited need for power exchanges. The Planning committee’s recommendations, approved by the Nordel board about 1969-72, was, in my view, pointing in a slightly radical direction, but were very carefully worded.129 The Nordic countries should work towards a common reserve effect of 15 per cent. The Norwegian companies should, instead of securing the power supply during years with low water flows by constructing its own thermal power plants, ”consider” importing power from the other Nordic countries. The other countries should, for their part, should ”consider” investing in hydropower in Norway to satisfy their demand of top loads. Specific recommendations regarding transmission capacity was to start investigations and negations about one more 400kV line between Norway and Sweden, increase the voltage on an existing line between mid-Norway and mid-Sweden and finally a new 400kV line between Denmark and Sweden. Conclusions Summary of Nordel’s proposals on power exchange and construction coordination Regarding the rules for power exchange, Nordel’s recommendations more or less reaffirmed bilateral rules established by the companies. However, it apparently did not approve of Norway’s principle of “the determining year”, instead promoting the calculated power or water value and marginal costs as a basis for the power exchanges. It did introduce a price ceiling to retain the cohesion within the pool and prevent disintegrating forces. When it came to the recommendations regarding construction planning, the assumption was the national programs and national priorities. Recommendations had to work within that frame. Cautiously urging import instead of overinvestments, or investment in a neighbouring country. This was, as in UCPTE, a recipe for a loosely-knit pool, comprising self-sufficient entities that from time to time could support each other. Nordel’s institutional position, authority and importance How should we view Nordel? A paper tiger or a strategic think tank? From Nordel’s statutes and its recommendations, especially regarding planned construction, it is apparent that Nordel was constrained within the national framework of power supply. When it comes to the power exchanges, there was probably not much to change since the rules were long established seemed to work. I 128 129 Nordel (1972), p. 14. Nordel (1972), Nordel (1969). Sida 44 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman nevertheless believe that Nordel’s nominal weakness also was its strength. It was created as forum for exchange information, to discuss common problems and, like UCPTE, foster a ”spirit of mutual trust”. It could appoint committees to investigate strategic issues, think wide and far and publish the results. This would hardly have been possible if Nordel’s recommendations were binding. In short, it was a knowledge producing organisation, something I believe made a large and lasting impact, although such influence is notoriously difficult to measure. In other words, I believe this knowledge production lowered transaction costs and transformation costs, the latter not as institutional change (change of rules) but as physical modification of the system. The Nordic countries and Nordic power companies thus opted for a flexible, loosely-knit power pool, for mutual assistance and to help solve common problems. A rather peculiar thing is that Nordel was a product of technical change, perhaps necessary to handle the information exchange concerning new transmission lines and the increased power exchanges,130 (which, however, is the same as to accept that Nordel actually had influence) and at the same time created to initiate technical change. In other words, technology initiates institutional change and institutional change initiates technological change. That technological development initiates institutional change has, as Arne Kaijser notes, in fact, been quite common in the electricity systems,131 as well as in other technical systems, for example the medium-wave band used for broadcasting in Europe in the 1920s.132 However, it also clear that a corporate form – municipality, cooperative, private or state-owned – seems not to have been a determining factor to the possibility to take part in increased power pooling and joint ventures in construction. The power pools in the US had public as well as private utilities as members, and the ownership in the Nordic countries, as we have seen, was also quite diverse. This points to the great importance of technical and economic incentives as opposed to organisational form. I would also like to, if a bit speculative perhaps, suggest another reason than as an administrative body. My guess is that the creation of Nordel was partly due to the power companies’ wish to keep politicians out the field of electricity system. These should be handled rationally, and not by political manoeuvres. An indication of this is a discussion during the board meetings 1968-1969. Nordel had been asked to provide an opinion on NORDEK, the joint Nordic cooperation in economic affairs referred to above. The members are generally positive to the idea, but at the same time express concern over a perceived risk: What would be Nordel’s task in the greater scheme of things? Will we become micro-managed by politicians? The latter development must be resisted.133 What I mean to 130 Nordel, ed. Sven O. Lalander (1988), pp. 11-16. Kaijser (1995), pp. 51-52. 132 Wormbs (2011). 133 Minutes of meeting from Nordel board meeting, 1969 or 1968. Vattenfall, Staben. 131 Sida 45 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman say it that a workable, bilateral cooperation already existed before the creation of Nordel, and that Nordel, to some extent, became the power companies’ alibi for the greater, Nordic cooperation. I believe Nordel was, both in spirit and body (the links to CIGRE were at least clear), very much a part of an international community of professionals and engineers that saw a more liberal and international system as economically and technically more rational than a politically managed electricity system. There were certainly exceptions on the personal level and there may even have been a certain “Nordic” flavour of professionalism that was linked to the Nordic balance referred to in connection with UCPTE, a more careful and cautious variant of cooperation within the electricity system. Can the Nordic electricity system be regarded as a common-pool resource? In the theoretical section above I argued that the Nordic electricity system could be viewed as common-pool resource and that Ostrom’s theoretical framework thereby could be applied. It had a stock, flow, renewability, and as we saw later there was rules on provision to join power pools, etc. A conclusion from above is, moreover, that the mere interconnection, pooling of power, planned construction, created resources and saved costs, in essence, created a common pool of resources. 134 On the other hand, ownership of did not exchange hands, and whatever its importance, the power exchanges and construction planning, compared to the total production was quite marginal, about 2 to 6 per cent of totally produced TWhs in the years 1963-1970 for the exchanges and about 1 per cent of the value of the total production for estimated savings due to coordinated construction from about 1969 up to 1975/76. This, then, was marginal features in a loosely-knit power pool consisting of largely self-sufficient and independent sub-systems, and the common-pool resource character thereby also quite marginal. It should be added, however, that the great advantage lay in greater reliability and security of supply, which allowed the partners to import instead of resorting to rationing. The shortage prices were, as we saw above, considerably higher than ordinary prices and should, in some way, reflect to cost to society for such a situation. But perhaps the most clear factor pointing away from the applicability of Ostrom’s framework on this topic is the fact that I have put Ostrom’s problem on its head: this was about cooperation to exploit potential gains and advantages from a position of relative independence, not, as in most cases Ostrom studies, from a situation of dependence on and cooperation about, at times, scarce resources. This means that monitoring of conformance to rules, conflict resolution, etc., tend to recede in the background in my study. Why, then, not just talk about economies of scale and 134 I have to admit, however, that this creation of common resources also is a minor part of my initial assumptions regarding the boundaries of the CPR. My application of Ostrom's framework is, in other words, not flawless. Sida 46 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman economies of scope? In my view, because Ostrom’s framework focuses on cooperation and relates those to the internal variables (discount rate, expected benefits and costs) and the situational variables (the condition of the CPR, the number of appropriators, providers, etc.) to the cooperation, as well as to the different levels of activity and authority (operational, collective and constitutional). This relates constraints to opportunities, and makes the incentives and processes governing cooperation in situations where humans handle common resources more clear. The framework can, as Ostrom puts it, not only be used to develop theory and models of collective behaviour, it can also be used to “organise further empirical research to generate findings about the relative importance of particular variables”,135 as I understand this, try the framework on new and, in a sense, unconventional issues to analyse what is important and what is less important, much as I have tried to do in this thesis. Suggestions for further research This brings me to the last section of this thesis, which contains a few tentative suggestions for further applications of Ostrom’s framework. In general, I would say that it could be used in any situation characterised by cooperation or competition, or both, on scarce and common resources. In globalised world, this could be about the fishing industry, prowling the oceans, the pharmaceutical industry likewise scavenging for plants and species as a basis for future drugs, or the “land-grabbing” activities of countries like China, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, searching for farmland outside its own borders.136 In other words, in situations where our oceans, rain forests and farmland respectively are considered as a common human resources. This has, I admit, a touch of conspiracy to it. The subjects are probably also quite well covered, but I am not sure in Ostrom’s framework. The above suggestions are perhaps not economic history. On the other hand, human economic existence has, for the most part, been characterised by scarcity. So there should be plenty of opportunity for applying Ostrom’s framework in this context. As a last suggestion, I would propose a theoretical comparison between Elinor Ostrom’s, Thomas P. Huhges’ and Alfred D. Chandler’s frameworks and concepts. This comparison would not aim at producing new knowledge, but to combine and perhaps synthesise frameworks and tools to study, for example, the above suggested topics, where technology, incentives and authority all play a large part. 135 Ostrom (1990), p. 192. See for example Macfarquhar, N., 2010. African Farmers Losing Land to Investors. The New York Times. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/22/world/africa/22mali.html [Accessed May 23, 2011] or Buying farmland abroad - Outsourcing's third wave. The Economist. Available at: http://www.economist.com/node/13692889?story_id=E1_TPGJNRRJ [Accessed May 28, 2009]. 136 Sida 47 av 50 The Nordic electricity system as a common-pool resource Anders Bäckman Sources and bibliography Unprinted sources Statens Vattenfallsverk Staben /S/ 1962-1991. Handlingar ordnade efter ämne. (Documents sorted by subject.) F1b Dossièrer, huvudserie 2, volymer 82-86, 308-320, 557-560, 831. 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