Why You May Wish to Consider Ultra-Short Bond Strategies for Your Clients’ Portfolios EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This paper details why financial advisors and their clients should consider ultra-short bond strategies in today’s market climate: The current regulatory environment surrounding money market funds is uncertain. The federal government’s Transaction Account Guarantee (TAG) program has expired and regulators are under pressure to implement new money market reforms. A relatively conservative diversification tool. Ultra-short bonds have demonstrated consistently low volatility versus stocks, commodities and longer-term bonds, delivering only relatively negative returns even in the most challenging periods, such as the years of the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008 - 2009. Defensive duration exposure. Ultra-short bonds have generally offered more price protection than longer-term bonds in rising interest rate environments, which may be an important factor to consider given that the current interest rates are at historic lows. Exhibit 1: The Potential Risk vs. Potential Return of Various Asset Classes Higher Potential Potential Returns Other Specialty Investments International Equities U.S. Large Cap Equities U.S. Intermediate-Term Bonds Municipals U.S. Treasury Bills Commodities U.S. Small Cap Equities U.S. High Yield Bonds 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds Ultra-Short Bonds Money Market Funds Lower Potential Potential Risk Source: RidgeWorth Investments, as of 2/13/2013 The assertions in this whitepaper are based on RidgeWorth’s opinion. Performance information regarding ultra-short bond strategies reflect historical data and may not be predictive of future performance. Cash equivalents such as money market funds generally offer lower risk and lower return potential. Bonds offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will fluctuate providing the potential for principal gain or loss. Intermediate-term, higher quality bonds generally offer less risk than longer term bonds and a lower rate of return. Generally, a fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise and vice versa. Stocks are more volatile and carry more risk and return potential than other forms of investments. CONSIDER ULTRA-SHORT BOND STRATEGIES FOR YOUR CLIENTS’ PORTFOLIOS MARCH 2013 THE CURRENT REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT FOR MONEY MARKET FUNDS December 31, 2012 marked the conclusion of the federal government’s TAG program. Congress launched the program during the financial crisis to provide banking system liquidity. Prior to TAG, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) guaranteed deposit accounts up to $100,000. TAG altered this coverage by providing unlimited insurance protection on non-interest-bearing deposit accounts. By year-end 2012, assets in such accounts totaled nearly $1.5 trillion. Now, absent the unlimited government guarantee (combined deposits in interest- and non-interest-bearing accounts up to $250,000 remain FDIC insured) and negligible rates, such accounts offer little incentive for holders of large cash deposits, who may consider other alternatives, including money market funds. But, money market funds come with their own set of challenges. The federal government’s Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) is encouraging the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to implement money market reforms aimed at stemming any potential “run on funds.” Although the SEC has not yet outlined its version of the specific industry reforms, a measure it is likely to propose is floating net asset values (NAVs) for money market funds. In fact, the floating NAV is one of the suggested options in the current FSOC reform proposal of November 13, 2012. Other suggested options include potential capital buffers and liquidity restrictions. Comment letters on the recommended reforms are currently being reviewed by FSOC. It is likely that the SEC proposal, if one comes out, will be similar to the FSOC proposal. Money market funds face an uncertain regulatory environment, with possible industry reforms proposed. One of the features setting a money market fund apart from other types of mutual funds is its commitment to safety of principal by seeking a stable NAV of $1. Converting to a floating NAV standard would eliminate that safety element and make money market funds slightly more risky than they are today. Despite the extremely low yields currently available on money market funds, along with the likely ramifications of new money market reforms, investors with immediate cash needs may wish to continue to hold cash and cash-equivalent vehicles such money market funds. Those investors with more intermediate liquidity needs may want to move out on the risk/return spectrum shown in Exhibit 1 and consider ultra-short bond strategies as an option. With the expiration of the TAG program and the mounting pressures on money market funds, the mutual fund industry has seen a dramatic increase in the number of ultra-short bond funds in the market. Such strategies typically invest primarily in investment-grade debt issues and maintain a portfolio dollar-weighted average maturity between 91 days and 365 days. Based on these characteristics, ultra-short bonds are generally considered to reside at the conservative end of the risk/return spectrum and seek to provide relative safety and low volatility versus stocks, commodities and longer-term bonds. In addition, they generally offer incremental yield advantages—and a corresponding higher degree of risk—compared with money market securities. Investors need to understand that there are material risks in ultra-short bond funds, including that ultra-short bond funds invest in securities that may experience losses due to credit downgrades or defaults, and that the NAV of ultra-short bond funds floats and has a greater risk to principal than money market funds. Credit risk may be less of a factor for ultra-short bond funds that principally invest in government securities. CONSIDER ULTRA-SHORT BOND STRATEGIES FOR YOUR CLIENTS’ PORTFOLIOS PAGE 2 AIDING PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION AND RISK Ultra-short bond strategies may provide important diversification benefits to well-rounded portfolios. Because they typically offer relative price stability compared with stocks, commodities and longer-term bonds, ultra-short bonds may help temper overall portfolio risk while enhancing return potential. Exhibit 2 outlines the best, worst and average one-year returns for various asset classes during the past 10 years. Although stocks and commodities have offered the strongest returns, they also have demonstrated the largest single-year losses. In contrast, ultra-short bonds have delivered more consistent single-year returns and an average annualized total return of 2.11%. Exhibit 2: Asset Class Returns — Ten years ended 12/31/2012 S&P GSCI Total Return Barclays US Aggregate Credit - Corporate - High Yield (1983) Russell 2000 - Total Return 57.54 8.21 Barclays Municipal Bond 5.18 -0.81 Barclays US Treasury - Bills (3-6 M) 0.11 Lipper Ultra-Short Obligations Funds -20% 13.79 Ultra-short bonds seek to provide relative safety and low volatility versus stocks, commodities and longer-term bonds. 5.59 1.94 5.40 2.11 -1.64 -40% Best One-Year Return Annualized Total Return Worst One-Year Return 14.85 5.10 -3.61 Barclays US Aggregate 20.06 5.58 -9.76 -60% 53.62 7.10 -43.32 Barclays US Treasury Bellwethers (10 Y) -80% 64.41 9.72 -50.22 S&P 500 - Total Return 64.95 10.62 -31.23 -42.38 MSCI EAFE - Net Return 75.98 2.75 -60.08 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Source: FactSet, Lipper, as of 2/14/2013 Although past performance is not indicative of future results, ultra-short bonds avoided significant losses in any of the one-year periods, including the challenging years of the financial crisis and Great Recession. As Exhibit 3 shows, in rolling one-year periods, ultra-short bonds’ worst 12-month period was -1.64%, while their intermediate-term brethren’s worst 12-month period was -6.58%. There have been six negative return periods for ultra-short bonds while intermediate investment grade bonds have had 23. Ultra-short bonds may offer strong defensive characteristics and relatively attractive long-term returns. This asset class may help reduce overall downside risk in a diversified portfolio. Exhibit 3: Lipper Ultra-Short Obligations and Intermediate Investment Grade Bonds Categories Rolling One-Year Returns — For the periods ended 12/31/12 20 Intermediate Investment Grade Debt Funds 20 Ultra-Short Obligations Funds 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 12/31/92 12/31/96 12/31/00 12/31/04 12/31/08 12/31/12 -10 12/31/92 12/31/96 12/31/00 12/31/04 12/31/08 12/31/12 Source: Lipper, as of 1/14/2013 20% 15% 10% 5% Ultra-Short Obligations Funds Intermediate Investment Grade Debt Funds CONSIDER ULTRA-SHORT BOND STRATEGIES FOR YOUR CLIENTS’ PORTFOLIOS PAGE 3 In addition to helping reduce overall portfolio risk, ultra-short bonds may help manage duration risk in a fixed income allocation. Interest rates have tumbled to record lows in recent years, as illustrated in Exhibit 4. This has prompted many bond investors to extend their fixed income investments into longer-term and lower-quality securities in an attempt to capture higher yields. Exhibit 4: Federal Funds Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yields Over the Last 52 Years 25% Interest rates have tumbled to record lows, prompting many bond investors to extend their fixed income investments into longerterm and lower-quality securities in search of higher yields. Ultra-short bonds may be used specifically to manage duration risk in a fixed income allocation. When interest rates eventually head upward, ultra-short bonds may offer greater price protection than their longer-term counterparts due to their lower interest rate sensitivity. 20% Federal Funds Rate 10-Year Treasury Yield 15% 10% 5% 0% 12/29/61 12/31/64 12/29/67 12/31/70 12/31/73 12/31/76 12/31/79 12/31/82 12/31/85 12/30/88 12/31/91 12/30/94 12/31/97 12/29/00 12/31/03 12/29/06 12/31/09 12/31/12 Source: FactSet, as of 1/11/2013 Yet, the multi-year downward trend in interest rates leaves little room for additional declines, suggesting the next major move in rates will be an upward one, triggering greater duration risk. Given the sluggishness of the U.S. economy, combined with the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) commitment to keeping interest rates low until inflation increases and the unemployment rate improves, the timing and magnitude of any rate increases remain unclear. But, when interest rates head upward, ultra-short bonds may offer greater price protection than their longer-term counterparts due to their lower interest rate sensitivity. While longer duration bonds have an important role to play in an investor’s overall portfolio, ultra-short bonds may offer an attractive risk/return profile in periods of rising rates. EVALUATING ULTRA-SHORT BOND STRATEGIES While ultra-short bonds offer a way to earn yield, it is important to remember that, unlike money market funds and CDs, the principal value will fluctuate—meaning investors may realize gains or losses. A fund manager’s professional insights on duration management, yield curve positioning, sector rotation and security selection may help optimize risk/return potential. This is why many investors access ultra-short bonds through mutual funds. Actively managed ultra-short bond funds may help limit the risk of principal loss and boost return potential by pursuing a disciplined investment management process that includes duration management, yield curve positioning, sector rotation and security selection. Different funds can vary widely in terms of their risk/return profiles, and investors may want to evaluate several crucial areas to determine if a particular investment manager meets their needs: 1) How volatile is the strategy? Many investors focus on yield when researching ultra-short bond funds, but total return, particularly measured on a risk-adjusted basis, may be a better indicator of a manager’s ability to deliver consistent performance. Examining competitive returns and NAV stability in up and down markets and across full economic cycles may help reveal if a high yield is symptomatic of a high-volatility strategy. CONSIDER ULTRA-SHORT BOND STRATEGIES FOR YOUR CLIENTS’ PORTFOLIOS PAGE 4 2) Does the fund use derivatives? Many ultra-short bond funds employ derivative strategies, but a key differentiator is whether the manager uses these instruments to hedge against interest rate exposure or to increase leverage in an effort to amplify returns. The former can help reduce portfolio volatility, while the latter can increase volatility significantly. Investors may wish to examine the fund’s holdings to make sure the maturities are in line with the fund’s overall maturity profile, because using derivatives to scale back duration of what is really an intermediate portfolio may add a great deal of volatility in certain market climates. 3) How strong is the portfolio’s credit quality? By design, ultra-short bond funds may help protect against interest rate risk, but there remain other important considerations like credit risk. This was a key factor in the lagging performance of some ultra-short bond funds during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Interest rates came down, which was generally beneficial to ultra-short bond funds, but credit spreads (the difference in yield between non-Treasury and Treasury securities of the same maturity) widened, which was detrimental to funds invested in lower-quality, higher-risk assets. Be aware of strategies that strive for yield by including large allocations to lower-rated securities, because they may expose shareholders to a higher degree of credit risk. Instead, investors may want to consider funds that invest in U.S. government-backed securities and high-quality credit and asset-backed securities. 4) How well does the manager mitigate call risk, extension risk and prepayment risk? Some additional items that an investor needs to consider when selecting ultra-short bond funds are how call risk and extension risk are managed. Call risk is the risk that the issuer of the bond will redeem the issue prior to maturity and the bondholder will receive payment at par and have to reinvest in a less favorable interest rate environment. Extension risk in mortgage-backed securities is similar to prepayment risk, but acts in an opposite manner. Prepayment risk is when the mortgages underlying the mortgage-backed securities are paid off ahead of schedule (for example, by people refinancing in periods of falling interest rates) and the proceeds have to be invested in a less favorable interest rate environment. Extension risk occurs when less prepayments than expected occur due to rising interest rates (e.g., when the mortgage holders do not refinance because their current mortgage is at a lower interest rate than what is currently available), and the securities’ expected maturity will lengthen in duration due to the deceleration of payments. Investors may wish to consider a manager who has assumptions and models in place to manage call risk, prepayment risk and extension risk. Actively managed mutual funds offer an easy way to add ultra-short bond exposure to a portfolio. Investors may wish to more closely scrutinize strategies with outsized yields or other risk flags that may be overly volatile in difficult markets. 5) How experienced is the manager of the strategy? The mutual fund industry has seen the launch of many new ultra-short bond funds recently, some managed by firms with no previous experience in the investment style. While no one knows what is in store for the financial markets, examining a manager’s tenure in the investment style may provide important insight into how the fund is managed and how it navigated the markets during the credit crisis of 2008 - 2009. CONCLUSION Investors with intermediate liquidity needs looking for the potential for additional yield — and who are willing to take on some additional risk in comparison to deposit accounts and money market funds — may wish to consider ultra-short bonds. Ultra-short bonds’ low volatility may help diversify portfolio risk, while their low sensitivity to interest rate changes may help investors prepare their fixed income portfolios for an eventual rising-rate environment. CONSIDER ULTRA-SHORT BOND STRATEGIES FOR YOUR CLIENTS’ PORTFOLIOS PAGE 5 About RidgeWor th Investments RidgeWorth serves as a money management holding company with six style-specific institutional investment management boutiques, each with a well-defined, proven approach and all with unwavering commitments to exceptional performance. Through our multiple, style-specific boutiques, we offer a wide range of equity and fixed income investment disciplines. RidgeWorth Investments, an investment adviser registered with the SEC since 1985, is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. Investment Considerations Bonds offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will fluctuate providing the potential for principal gain or loss. Intermediate-term, higher-quality bonds generally offer less risk than longer-term bonds and a lower rate of return. Generally, a Fund’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise and vice versa. This information and general market-related projections are based on information available at the time, are subject to change without notice, are for informational purposes only, are not intended as individual or specific advice, may not represent the opinions of the entire firm, and may not be relied upon for individual investing purposes. Information provided is general and educational in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is not intended to be authoritative. All information contained herein is believed to be correct, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This information may coincide or conflict with activities of the portfolio managers. It is not intended to be, and should not be construed as investment, legal, estate planning, or tax advice. RidgeWorth Investments does not provide legal, estate planning or tax advice. Investors are advised to consult with their investment processional about their specific financial needs and goals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. CONSIDER ULTRA-SHORT BOND STRATEGIES FOR YOUR CLIENTS’ PORTFOLIOS PAGE 6 Download this and other RidgeWorth White Papers at https://www.ridgeworth.com/news-insights/ridgeworth-research Investment Terms Net Asset Value (NAV) is a mutual fund’s price per share value. The per-share dollar amount of the fund is calculated by dividing the total value of all the securities in its portfolio, less any liabilities, by the number of fund shares outstanding. Weighted Average Maturity is the length of time until the average security in a fund will mature, be redeemed by its issuer, or paid down over time, which is the case with most securitized assets. Yield Curve is a curve that shows the relationship between yields and maturity dates for a set of similar bonds, usually Treasuries, at any given point in time. Credit Spreads are the difference between the yields of sector types and/or maturity ranges. Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions actively trade balances held at the Federal Reserve, called federal funds, with each other, usually overnight, on an uncollateralized basis. Credit Ratings Standard & Poor’s rates securities from AAA (highest quality) to C (lowest quality) with BBB and above being called investment grade securities. BB and below are considered below investment grade securities. Lipper Ultra-Short Obligations, Lipper Money Market Funds and the Lipper Intermediate Investment Grade categories are equally weighted averages of the mutual funds within their respective investment objectives, adjusted for the reinvestment of capital gains distributions and income dividends. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 selected common large capitalization stocks (most of which are listed on the New York Stock Exchange) that is often used as a measure of the U.S. stock market. Russell 2000 Index is an index measuring the performance approximately 2,000 small-cap companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which is made up of 3,000 of the biggest U.S. stocks. The Russell 2000 serves as a benchmark for small-cap stocks in the United States. Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australasia and Far East (“MSCI EAFE”) Index is an unmanaged marketcapitalization-weighted equity index comprising 20 of the 48 countries in the MSCI universe and representing the developed world outside of North America. Each MSCI country index is created separately then aggregated, without change, into regional MSCI indices. EAFE performance data is calculated in U.S. dollars and in local currency. Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a widely recognized index of securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar denominated. The Index covers the U.S. investment grade fixed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities and asset-backed securities. Barclays Municipal Bond Index is a widely recognized index of investment grade tax-exempt bonds. The eight subsets of the Index are market weighted. The Index includes general obligations, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and pre-refunded bonds. Barclays Capital 3-6 Month Treasury Bill Index is the 3-6 Months component of the Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury Bill index which includes U.S. Treasury bills with a remaining maturity from 1 up to (but not including) 12 months. It excludes zero coupon strips. Barclays 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bellwethers Index is a universe of Treasury bonds, and used as a benchmark against the market for long-term maturity fixed income securities. The index assumes reinvestment of all distributions and interest payments. Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index is an unmanaged market-value-weighted index that covers the universe of fixed rate, non-investment grade debt. S&P Goldman Sachs Commodities Index serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time. The index currently comprises 24 commodities from all commodity sectors - energy products, industrial metals, agricultural products, livestock products and precious metals. The SPGSCI is expressed in a dollar price based on the underlying contracts and their respective weights. CONSIDER ULTRA-SHORT BOND STRATEGIES FOR YOUR CLIENTS’ PORTFOLIOS PAGE 7 An investor should consider the fund’s investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses carefully before investing or sending money. This and other important information about the RidgeWorth Funds can be found in the fund’s prospectus. To obtain a prospectus, please call 1-888-784-3863 or visit www.ridgeworth.com. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. ©2013 RidgeWorth Investments. RidgeWorth Investments is the trade name for RidgeWorth Capital Management, Inc., an investment advisor registered with the SEC and the adviser to the RidgeWorth Funds. RidgeWorth Funds are distributed by RidgeWorth Distributors LLC, which is not affiliated with the adviser. Collective Strength Individual Insight is a federally registered service mark of RidgeWorth Investments. • Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • May Lose Value RFWP-USB-0313
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